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Russian
00:02:05
Hello friends, this is the project Money Never Sleeps00:02:07
It's Friday, which means it's time to sum it up00:02:09
results of another week of trading week00:02:12
on all financial markets in the world00:02:14
there is something to let down00:02:18
Let's00:02:21
preparing the clutch in the history of this00:02:24
project Thank you Vasilyevich Yes friends00:02:26
indeed today we are the focus of attention00:02:28
let's look at a number of markets. The first is of course00:02:31
Let’s analyze Russia separately by segments00:02:33
Let's take a closer look at dividends00:02:36
stories on the oil market on the banking00:02:39
market and of course we will discuss China because00:02:41
that Chinese companies which also00:02:43
are also traded on the St. Petersburg Stock Exchange00:02:45
presented their reports in general according to00:02:48
take a closer look at which of these00:02:50
reports promising have potential00:02:52
for growth And what reports can you00:02:54
ignore and invest your money00:02:55
more interesting Russian and00:02:58
attractive stories Okay Russian00:03:00
the market is clear that it is stalling00:03:02
with an eye, of course, on what is happening in00:03:04
world And the world continues to shake, as it were, although00:03:06
strong quotes are not yet available00:03:09
Only the financial sector in the world is falling00:03:11
let's talk about how the new world is developing00:03:14
financial crisis is it worth the wait?00:03:17
more acute of some phase, well, probably00:03:19
yes rather yes than no00:03:21
Well, that's why we'll start today with00:03:24
Russian market because00:03:26
perhaps during this broadcast something00:03:29
you can change radically in the USA00:03:32
because the head of the US Treasury is there again00:03:34
there's an emergency meeting convened here on00:03:38
supervision of financial stability Well00:03:41
The situation is definitely getting out of control00:03:42
with banks, depositors take out money about00:03:44
let's talk about this but let's go to the second00:03:45
let's start with the Russian stock market00:03:47
market00:03:48
Looks like a positive week00:03:51
closes Well, almost the same00:03:53
marks almost 2,000 38 2,389 points00:03:57
3.400 We are in the moment, in my opinion, even00:03:59
touched of course the news uh arrival00:04:04
the heads of China are also a little bit00:04:08
encouraged the market some forecasts announcements00:04:11
joint activities partnership all00:04:14
this of course played out a little00:04:16
oil and gas sector Well, of course Sberbank00:04:17
Russian index still holds up00:04:19
to the top, of course, we have nothing00:04:23
hasn’t changed yet Yes, at least Well, at least00:04:25
there is some kind of life that makes me happy00:04:27
The Russian market is isolated00:04:30
the form Yes does not react to what00:04:31
what's happening in the world, we're talking about it00:04:34
we've said many times, let's imagine00:04:35
Now is generally the perfect time for00:04:38
global collapse because well, we have it00:04:41
of course too00:04:43
as if we'll catch it if it happens00:04:46
Russian market and economy of course00:04:49
will also shake something here00:04:51
guess Yes, it’s important to emphasize here, friends00:04:54
what exactly is the economy? Because if00:04:55
recession is global is global00:04:58
character always influences first of all00:05:01
consumption consumption00:05:04
enterprises for consumption of course00:05:07
Yes Yes00:05:10
this has probably already been followed Well we00:05:14
more dependent of course on let's do it00:05:16
our economy the stock market is bigger00:05:18
Of course it depends on the Chinese economy00:05:20
That's why00:05:21
if there if Storm00:05:24
will bypass the Chinese one too00:05:26
in principle it cannot be yes. Here I have00:05:28
financial and banking crisis if00:05:30
will flare up on a new scale in principle00:05:32
everything is going towards this so far but it will be like this00:05:35
the tsunami that we are by and large00:05:36
seen in the global economy in recent years00:05:38
30 years already three times That’s exactly financial00:05:40
Banking Crisis is usually on the whole world00:05:43
coughs But the Chinese economy00:05:46
now it’s like leaving Quid with00:05:48
its incentives, in principle, can be00:05:50
more stable, in principle, many00:05:52
experts note that it is still00:05:54
for now it’s considered a quiet haven. Well,00:05:56
Let's see Okay, let's do everything in order00:06:00
We're getting closer. We're at 2,400, a good milestone.00:06:03
basically a good closure Here are the weeks00:06:05
I said earlier that the closure is good so far00:06:06
growth potential remains small Yes with00:06:09
sights with sights at 2500 mark00:06:11
points above the driver is not visible yet00:06:13
there are simply no such things because00:06:14
the main growth drivers are Gold00:06:16
rain dividend rain00:06:21
Yes, we mostly have cutoffs in April00:06:23
will begin already won back in the market yes it is00:06:26
yes this is what this drive is based on00:06:29
growth is almost the only one up to basically00:06:30
as well as partly the devaluation of the ruble00:06:33
small which should have also00:06:35
invest in ruble stock quotes Well00:06:37
in fact, all this is already being laid00:06:40
laid down, one might say, in the market therefore00:06:41
thoughts so far are that we still have00:06:45
the varnish may be like this for two or three weeks00:06:46
more or less positive00:06:48
standing or00:06:52
creeping up there yes stay yes in00:06:55
in this range Well, actually in April00:06:57
the cutoff will begin Well, first of all, and after00:07:00
cutoffs Clearly the index will decrease But I00:07:05
I think the shares will fall some00:07:07
more than the dividend gap value00:07:08
Therefore, in principle, it may be reasonable00:07:11
will be uh yes Before the cutoff actually00:07:13
go out do not collect dividends Well in00:07:16
every company will probably have a couple00:07:17
happen differently here in history00:07:21
where we will discuss everything on my plasmas00:07:23
these stories are precisely why in00:07:25
basically there are only two or three00:07:28
percent Well, why not, maybe00:07:30
Let's get there with an eye on April00:07:32
The closer to May it will probably be there00:07:34
externally the situation is deteriorating and00:07:36
global markets I mean mine in00:07:39
The reporting season will begin there in April00:07:41
USA which will probably not be very good either00:07:42
good Well, in general, externally externally00:07:44
current financial markets probably00:07:45
It will get worse closer to May. Well00:07:48
Geopolitics most likely as soon as everything00:07:50
spring sweats the earth will dry out00:07:54
probably not very good news uh00:07:57
related to geopolitics for Russia for00:08:00
Russian stock market, which is also00:08:02
will cause some stress at the moment00:08:04
so I don’t encourage my friends to sell00:08:07
I don’t encourage you to buy anything If in00:08:09
long-term investor probably doesn't care00:08:11
valuable For many assets including00:08:13
oil and gas I think it’s extremely cheap00:08:15
interesting here is the banking sector00:08:17
Sberbank has probably survived all that so far00:08:19
maybe the rest00:08:22
interesting names, well, to be honest00:08:24
I don't see much at the current levels00:08:26
Well, we'll sort it out today, we'll sort it out. In general, 200:08:29
500 while this ceiling seems to be visible on00:08:33
the nearest place is a week in April00:08:36
in 2 3 4 we will turn around again00:08:38
down probably Well, what a global picture00:08:40
more global over the last 10 years00:08:42
looks like this Here too00:08:44
here 2,500 is quite important00:08:45
a milestone whose breakdown seems to be00:08:48
of course opens the way to three three s00:08:50
superfluous here we can by the way beautifully00:08:52
draw the second shoulder who loves those00:08:55
analysis and head with shoulders second shoulder00:08:56
at 3.200 and down to a thousand Opana at00:09:00
big man, well, hardly, well, hardly me00:09:04
I think we're stalling here, here I am00:09:07
I get up while in my country from Russian00:09:09
there is no activity now, I'm waiting and00:09:13
probably won't buy for the next few weeks00:09:14
I'll be here, I'm not a fan of dividend stories00:09:18
I'm not a long-term investor, I'm a speculator00:09:20
I've never been interested in dividends00:09:22
that's why I'm standing aside00:09:25
I think it's cheaper this year00:09:28
we will see lower levels later00:09:30
indices May June00:09:32
my opinion I could be wrong again00:09:36
RTS index, well, nothing changes here00:09:39
even though we are trying to get closer to the mark00:09:41
1000 points but anyway00:09:43
downtrend which was like you00:09:44
you understand it is preserved and until we00:09:48
let's break the previous maximum Yes from the point00:09:51
from the point of view of the formation of a new trend00:09:52
to say any hints at all I don't even know00:09:55
There's no point in talking about it, that's why00:09:57
bottoms constantly we update HAI we00:10:00
constantly00:10:01
every next every next00:10:04
minimum below previous maximum below00:10:06
previous Therefore, it remains for now00:10:07
downtrend trend therefore00:10:09
nothing changes here Well I think that00:10:12
the 900 point mark can be calm00:10:14
this year is also a problem00:10:16
so the ruble We close the week on00:10:18
principle of a neutral point 77 we00:10:21
seen higher up and on Thursday here and on00:10:24
76 even rolled back lower. Well, they’re like that00:10:26
fluctuations within one to two00:10:27
percent But I'm talking about fight 7800:10:30
closing the week will be a bad sign00:10:32
higher potential will open up I'll take a couple00:10:35
here we have 12 yuan paired with the dollar00:10:38
paired with the ruble Yes mark Key here00:10:40
if we close above 12 rubles per00:10:42
jewelry Let the roads open for more00:10:44
severe devaluation, of course now00:10:47
next week will be big uh00:10:50
tax payments plus personal income tax quarterly00:10:52
maybe this will support the ruble maybe00:10:55
maybe it supports locally the ruble Well00:10:57
How do you see the conditions on the oil market?00:10:59
not very favorable about them yet00:11:01
actually we'll talk and we'll talk about00:11:02
oil and gas sector pieces of paper which also00:11:05
We were a little happy about the arrival of Winnie the Pooh00:11:07
But00:11:09
they still have potential, but I00:11:11
I want the oil market00:11:13
talk because00:11:15
bye bye waiting bye waiting this week we00:11:19
We've already seen the 70 mark right now00:11:21
exactly 70 Brent almost pricked and from there00:11:23
10 percent flew up quickly00:11:25
flew up 10 percent to the top 77 now00:11:28
of course 74 67 already Yes, we are still here00:11:34
in a descending corridor, basically 7000:11:36
understandable It was the previous local one there00:11:37
at least we started from him, but if00:11:40
take this to a better level00:11:42
support as well as within the top-down00:11:44
there is no channel and horizontally 60 approx.00:11:47
60 traces we'll probably try through I00:11:52
I will do through those anyway but not00:11:53
through futures That's who wants of course00:11:55
if this happens, from 60 it will be possible00:11:58
try to play upstairs if they give it to you00:12:00
I probably use these marks via etf00:12:04
I will gradually gain a position here00:12:06
global oil I'm still waiting for higher00:12:10
here we go, well again globally globally00:12:13
it's even local I'm waiting lower with00:12:15
with an eye on the second half of the year this time00:12:17
despite the recession, everything that is happening in00:12:19
world but if we talk about global00:12:21
facilities00:12:24
I'm still waiting for oil above 100 next00:12:28
year there and 100 and 110 120 maybe 150 and00:12:31
above we will see oil for this there are00:12:34
background I've released this many times00:12:36
said that and00:12:40
perform Well, this is both the chapter and the mail00:12:44
international energy agency00:12:45
and representatives of the custodial cartel spoke00:12:47
many times and the US Department of Energy00:12:50
make a very serious statement that00:12:53
the oil industry is not up to investment00:12:55
the coming years will not be invested00:12:57
even stronger, but with this it’s like00:13:00
with a view to 30 years old, as if we are still waiting00:13:03
one of the strongest rounds of rising oil prices00:13:05
It's not just that Grandpa Buffett continues00:13:08
buy oil companies well00:13:09
increase the share already in current or00:13:11
buy your own new ones here from him00:13:13
the plans are so interesting long term00:13:16
strategic so to speak00:13:18
Well, for now, local support00:13:20
Still, we keep it with news stuffing00:13:23
because it's kind of like the Guardianship Plus Cartel00:13:25
states that the reduction to here is by 200:13:27
million barrels with an eye on 2300:13:30
it seems that within the framework of the forecast they are00:13:33
Russia should be reduced by 500,00000:13:35
that is, in principle it will not fall in if it is lower00:13:37
will reduce artificially create00:13:39
shortage shortage of oil Well, or actually00:13:42
Well, or just maintain quotes Well00:13:45
general opinion regarding oil00:13:46
really a lot And by the way here is one of00:13:49
opinions which I also advise you00:13:51
listen to our channel00:13:52
Tinkov rules tox from the International00:13:54
studio released a new interview00:13:57
With00:13:59
Barcelona Yes with a Spanish professor00:14:02
Pompeo University and Russian00:14:05
economics school of economics00:14:12
I just don’t know where the emphasis is clearly00:14:15
where to put00:14:16
that’s why there are prospects for the ruble00:14:19
economic prospects What's going on00:14:21
in general in Europe and after just everything00:14:25
this oil and gas ember, well, in general00:14:27
long, large, interesting, rich00:14:29
the interview in particular also concerns00:14:31
forecasts and not forecasts but thoughts00:14:35
regarding the oil and gas industry Including00:14:36
including Russian So look00:14:38
link in the description under this video00:14:40
we'll deliver00:14:41
still about oil00:14:46
I came across a lot recently too00:14:51
time for analytical notes until00:14:53
regarding the sufferers there goldmans00:14:55
Morgans there and everyone else though00:14:57
I haven’t trusted these guys for a long time and Well00:15:00
nevertheless, you yourself make some forecasts00:15:01
you read, watch and some analytics00:15:04
they still become interesting00:15:06
you are right that maybe Buffett too00:15:09
right that00:15:11
raw material cycles00:15:13
if they exist for a very long period00:15:16
time it needs to be changed it needs to be done00:15:20
understand a little and in general they last00:15:23
about 10 years raw material cycle growing or00:15:27
actually falling00:15:29
Let's take for example Well, before00:15:32
through your eyes TF or just an index00:15:35
who does this index belong to absolutely?00:15:37
everything yes and00:15:39
oil gases and metals and food all to the team00:15:46
its dynamics over the last 30 are almost00:15:49
over the past 30 almost years00:15:52
let me draw it00:15:57
clearly catches the eye00:15:59
several falling rising cycles00:16:02
and their length is exactly here00:16:04
the last bottom was in 98 that's why00:16:07
the index is essentially 98 years old00:16:12
next low next low was00:16:14
already higher Yes, actually after the breakdown00:16:16
a growing trend has begun, so we take it for00:16:19
the foundation is just like the bottom, it's 9800:16:21
actually00:16:23
we showed the peaks00:16:26
exactly in 2008 until when happened then00:16:30
global financial crisis By the way, if only00:16:34
yes, let's think about it hypothetically00:16:36
because there is a series00:16:39
arguments that if oil is now well or00:16:43
then it will be 150-200 bucks. So what?00:16:45
the world economy will collapse again and will get bogged down00:16:48
in recession and so on What is the world00:16:49
the economy cannot exist with00:16:51
high energy prices may00:16:53
the question is just what inflation will be if00:16:55
the developed world will get used to inflation 4-5-600:16:58
percent annually But this will be the norm00:17:01
will also count simply for another00:17:03
with a little inflation everyone will get used to it again00:17:05
same year year inflation cannot constantly00:17:07
grow because one time00:17:09
discounts prices logistics everything in this00:17:11
oil will stabilize, maybe you can fly away00:17:14
at 200 and there for several years, let’s say00:17:18
it will settle down year after year, it will not germinate00:17:20
there will be no more added cost00:17:22
will it once cause inflation well00:17:25
again, 2008 is not the reason for the takeoff00:17:29
oil prices caused the economy to collapse00:17:33
American bank greed is right00:17:36
Kirov inflating a toxic bubble from00:17:38
toxic assets After all, if it weren’t for00:17:41
happened Yes, this would not have happened00:17:43
financial crisis, let's say it happened00:17:46
at ten past twelve or fifteen00:17:48
conditionally maybe we would see00:17:49
no not 140 150 170 200 Why not00:17:54
could have seen it could not be the reason00:17:56
there was oil in it, okay, it was just there00:17:59
growing cycle of 10 years00:18:02
10 years growing cycle of raw materials itself00:18:06
we have been since 2008, in fact, you can be like you00:18:12
you can clearly see the next high below00:18:13
the previous maximum is lower than the previous one00:18:15
maximum below previous minimum all00:18:17
below below below accordingly we had00:18:20
downward trend until 2000:18:23
until the end of 19 until the end of 10-11 years We00:18:30
were in a downward cycle Yes downward00:18:33
trend throughout the team but shown in00:18:35
in the twenties when covid happened00:18:38
Actually, this is how they basically do it00:18:41
some analysts also have their own conclusions Yes00:18:44
we showed a reversal with a new goal00:18:47
growing trend in chests of drawers across all00:18:52
commodity assets for all throughout the group00:18:54
salt assets This is food and metals and00:18:56
oil everything else00:18:59
this is logical And if, in principle, well with00:19:01
taking into account that the previous one was updated00:19:03
maximum yes, that is, there is a breakdown and00:19:05
actually Yes it began, that’s what the fact says00:19:08
that a new trend has begun and that00:19:10
talk about how long it will last Well00:19:13
again if it started only 2-300:19:16
years, it’s too early to say that he00:19:19
Most likely this trend has also stopped00:19:22
in principle, for 10 years it can be easy00:19:24
the question arises about what will happen in the world00:19:26
what inflation will be and of course what00:19:28
there will be a real value of the dollar there yes00:19:31
how much oil can print00:19:33
calmly not in a war game but in print00:19:35
the machine will fly away, in principle, everyone to whom these00:19:37
like in the twentieth year reason00:19:40
takeoff in the twentieth year all all all00:19:43
commodity assets first printed00:19:45
machine00:19:46
therefore, if the regulators are after00:19:49
recessions will be printed again in dozens00:19:52
trillions of dollars then goes Vasily A00:19:55
everything is going towards this no but they can00:19:57
bury the economy first, as it were00:20:00
then she won’t have to type too hard00:20:02
will be natural00:20:03
how to recover is the question here00:20:05
how will we get through this crisis but00:20:09
there will be a lot of typing so there is00:20:13
there's a good chance it's true00:20:14
a new part has begun for almost ten years00:20:17
the growing raw material cycle is basically00:20:20
everything for this everything for this now but00:20:23
all the prerequisites for this now00:20:24
ripen what00:20:26
oil is correlated with such an index:00:20:28
understandably has a high weight in this index00:20:31
this is also understandable. But oil does not00:20:34
forget to eat your own nuances not up to00:20:38
intensified before investment00:20:39
industry Yes can lead to very should00:20:42
lead to very serious growth00:20:44
once and a second time of course not yet00:20:47
forget about the US strategic reserve00:20:49
which actually to make up for well00:20:52
it will take at least a year and a half00:20:54
one and a half years even for buying at00:20:57
half a million barrels a day yeah well00:20:59
at least a year and a half began to replenish00:21:01
replenish a little00:21:02
kind of like kind of like kind of like no well00:21:06
maybe they started00:21:07
at around 70 it is clear that it could be00:21:11
you can already start replenishing so00:21:13
Of course, the support here is different00:21:16
fundamental for the oil market too00:21:18
can be found So I would honestly too00:21:22
bet that we are at the beginning of a growing00:21:26
global cycle00:21:30
for raw material assets for all in the world there will be00:21:32
food and metals will become more expensive00:21:36
oil, including what marks will I00:21:39
I don’t know, but before that, of course, Looking at00:21:41
I wouldn't take this picture right now00:21:43
we invest sharply quickly after all00:21:45
on the verge of a severe recession, stress00:21:47
so if it happens in financial00:21:49
the system will still fall down, that is, that00:21:51
oil may just fall to00:21:53
marks 60 or even 50 Yes American00:21:56
50-40 can easily fall Well, metal00:21:59
and will still drive away in the moment itself00:22:01
if it happens this year then it will00:22:05
there will be a very good moment like you00:22:07
you know, run in00:22:09
Well, let's say Russian oil and gas00:22:11
I don’t offer foreign companies now00:22:13
you yes but certain foreign00:22:16
oil and gas sector can be safely00:22:18
actually take because buying etf00:22:21
for oil but it is not justified Yes there is00:22:23
temporary collapse Here's a purchase for GAZ00:22:26
Through those it is not true in the long term if we00:22:28
we say that this is a rate for 2-3 years00:22:30
let's say no only only shares00:22:32
companies00:22:34
so here it is00:22:36
[music]00:22:37
after such growth we are now 5000:22:40
almost percentage correction00:22:41
already drawn, but I'm afraid what if00:22:44
there will be a recession, we can do it again00:22:46
the index should go closer to here, that is00:22:48
another percentage drop to 30 25 3000:22:51
percent is still falling00:22:53
but if we come here I don't know where00:22:55
there will be oil Well, let's say 50 dollars here00:22:58
Well, maybe it will even be lower. That’s it00:23:02
basically I'll have to start buying00:23:03
oil and gas oil and gas Russian00:23:05
gave the company a long-term deadline00:23:09
recession again what is happening in the world now00:23:12
what's going on As you can see it has a big impact on00:23:14
raw materials market and of course we are Russian00:23:17
the market is not reacting yet00:23:20
then he will react very quickly Therefore00:23:23
if there is a correction in Russia00:23:25
Russian market there, well, MICEX 500:23:27
fly there at 1200 maybe at00:23:29
a thousand maybe for 800 Anything can be00:23:30
yes then I would, well I'm talking about this everyone00:23:34
release almost say novatek oil growth00:23:36
these two companies00:23:37
let's say I would buy it because00:23:42
globally along the way we are really in00:23:44
the beginning of the growth of the raw materials cycle. Well,00:23:48
if you just look at the ratio00:23:51
Yes, let's say we take American00:23:55
Well, the American market S&P 500 and well00:23:59
actually idf which includes everything00:24:01
global commodity assets then for the current00:24:05
moment00:24:09
then at the moment00:24:11
the commodity market and commodity assets are clearly00:24:15
undervalued relative to the stock, or00:24:17
shares are very overvalued00:24:19
relative to current prices for raw materials Right now00:24:22
Choose00:24:23
how is it more convenient for someone to interpret this00:24:27
graph Or maybe there is an option that this is00:24:30
we take the ratio that is I see00:24:34
in the eighth year there were excellent prices00:24:36
raw materials where were the prices were on00:24:39
this one is like00:24:41
in general, oil and metals for everything there in00:24:45
space therefore seriously relatively00:24:47
shares looked very expensive if00:24:50
take there they are 97 8 even 200000:24:54
there yes00:24:56
and 2020, in fact, the raw materials showed00:25:01
ratio00:25:02
commodity assets to shares showed00:25:05
anomalous simply undervalued well and in00:25:09
then in subsequent years Which sector00:25:12
non-COVID year in 20-21 22 Which sector00:25:16
was a driver in the USA but also in the world in fact00:25:20
oil and gas, so now of course we00:25:23
we see a rollback and perhaps this rollback will continue00:25:25
will continue a little just as we get closer00:25:29
Well, I have the ratio of raw materials00:25:32
active shares this may pull back a little00:25:34
continue even closer to covid00:25:36
ratios and then with an eye to 5 years00:25:40
disruptions and assets but also shares00:25:44
mining company will look00:25:46
much better than all the others00:25:48
there is also a possibility in history00:25:51
before your eyes the ratio of 9000:25:53
we also just take the story, although the latest ones00:25:55
30 years00:25:56
this is just food for thought because00:26:00
that different people are watching us too00:26:02
For some, the approach is still an investment one00:26:04
dividend That's why I want it00:26:07
recruit promising companies from00:26:09
of which there is an upside of growth and business I do not00:26:12
I just want to sit in the stock for the sake of seven00:26:15
dividend percent I want it to grow00:26:16
another promotion for this the business must grow00:26:18
actually if this company mines00:26:20
metals or not, she either needs more00:26:22
extract or cheese prices must rise00:26:24
so from here we actually sort it out00:26:28
first what's hypothetical is possible00:26:30
will be the prices Well, and then if some00:26:34
companies are able to increase production00:26:37
so here we are just moving on00:26:39
actually to you someone for us00:26:41
would you recommend00:26:44
so much I know that the Moscow index00:26:48
exchange mainly consists of companies00:26:50
the oil and gas industry is therefore here00:26:52
Despite the fact that the idea is in Russian00:26:54
the market is small but the entire index consists of00:26:58
mainly only from the oil and gas sector00:26:59
So yes friends let's move on to00:27:01
my investment plasma and let's talk00:27:06
just about issuers who can00:27:09
have a potential of 23 24 in the next00:27:13
years I will also be separately now00:27:15
pay attention to dividends because00:27:17
what really happened this week00:27:19
there are a lot of dividend announcements where00:27:22
supervisory boards recommended00:27:23
dividends and of course many shares00:27:26
growing up, I'll start with Rosneft because00:27:29
she's really interesting as an investor00:27:31
idea00:27:33
historical companies pay00:27:35
about 50 percent of net profit00:27:38
IFRS in the form of dividends in the form00:27:40
dividends for its shareholders if00:27:42
Look at00:27:44
such dynamics00:27:47
dividend payments and target00:27:49
coefficient because 50 percent then00:27:52
it is clear that potentially the forecast is for the second00:27:55
half year 22 could be around 17 1800:27:59
rubles That is, this analyst from00:28:02
Tinkoff analysts calculated00:28:04
published this data on their channel00:28:06
Tinkoff investments Therefore, in principle00:28:08
then you can check it out at00:28:11
about Rosneft It seems to me again00:28:12
ladies Vasily talked to you at the end00:28:15
last year and I also highlighted that00:28:18
you can focus in '23 on00:28:21
companies with state participation where possible00:28:24
receiving dividends in order to00:28:26
since the needs of the federal budget00:28:28
close00:28:29
Rosneft, in principle, our entire oil industry00:28:31
is in this cohort but here's what00:28:34
further Here I will speak important00:28:36
take into account that both for oil growth and for00:28:38
every other company has one00:28:40
the obvious risk is increased taxes00:28:43
severance tax depreciation, that is, this is the value00:28:46
which can of course absolutely be00:28:49
not interesting for private investors but00:28:52
In principle, it is clear from Rosneft that now00:28:55
in her tongue Again due to the decline00:28:59
export volumes decrease due to prices00:29:03
literally profit for the second half of the year 2200:29:05
year turned out to be 12 percent lower than00:29:08
for the first one, that is, visible to the point of difficulty00:29:10
these trends in cost reduction are visible00:29:13
on raw materials plus again Geopolitics but00:29:16
I see interesting potential for Rosneft00:29:19
therefore Rosneft I also have in00:29:21
investor portfolio regarding00:29:23
Rosneft once again is dividends somewhere00:29:26
4.8-5 percent maximum for the second00:29:28
half a year Well, that is, the weather is about 1000:29:30
percent itself is a good dividend00:29:32
the story is just oil after all00:29:34
separately I want to say yes the main thing00:29:36
main direction China and where are we00:29:40
we increase supplies accordingly and00:29:43
we will continue to build it up as if00:29:45
It is clear now a new record for exports00:29:48
China is approximately as estimated00:29:52
very many investment houses in 2300:29:55
will take about percent00:29:57
consuming all the oil But it's decent00:30:00
Well, actually the demand there is gigantic00:30:03
especially against the backdrop of the establishment of the economy00:30:04
we go there in particular Rosneft only00:30:06
will increase the actual volumes of00:30:08
not everything is right about Tatneft00:30:10
definitely because most00:30:12
revenue in the group structure is just the same00:30:14
aimed at oil refining, that is00:30:17
here the company focused specifically on00:30:20
refining of petroleum products and let's say00:30:22
missed that moment with her intelligence00:30:25
he was just talking about something00:30:26
industry, including in Russia, yes it is00:30:29
is not for investment That is00:30:30
if we look at the revenue structure00:30:33
then the volume of product production plus 2900:30:36
percent year year oil production volume00:30:39
has also increased and attracts attention00:30:41
what exactly did oil refining bring to00:30:45
structure 38 percent and segment by00:30:47
oil exploration is only eight and seven00:30:50
percent, that is, we see a skew A00:30:52
taking into account the fact that still many00:30:56
uh Our friendly neighbors are India00:31:00
and China is accustomed to purchasing precisely00:31:02
crude oil is of course here for00:31:05
this could be the company's moment00:31:07
weak because large investments00:31:09
large capital expenditures for exploration00:31:11
oil will most likely be demanded of course00:31:13
and part of the net profit is not directed00:31:17
for dividends she invests in00:31:20
industry so that later in the future00:31:22
to gain these volumes of production and00:31:25
exports regarding oil also regarding00:31:28
about dividends00:31:30
there haven't been anything like this yet00:31:34
confirmed data is also most likely00:31:36
Here too we can see dividends00:31:39
again at the end of the year Transneft here00:31:43
Transneft is also interesting because00:31:46
about Transneft, in principle, the company00:31:48
observed00:31:50
main export via pipes via00:31:52
pipeline supplies here00:31:56
the company still continues00:31:59
transportation of oil and indexes its00:32:01
tariffs are about 6 percent00:32:02
trying to level out outflows00:32:05
from production In addition, it is stable00:32:08
pays dividends of about 5000:32:10
percent of profit Yes we see it00:32:12
dynamics since 2017 and is expected What the00:32:17
21 years dividends were high00:32:19
8.5 percent and00:32:21
dividends based on the results of 22 years can also00:32:25
be Well appropriate that is if00:32:27
here we will calculate it00:32:28
[music]00:32:31
Let's see if we do the same again00:32:34
do the calculations it will be here again00:32:35
dividend yield at 7.5 800:32:38
percent but so far the company has not00:32:40
announced00:32:43
Gazprom is the issuer, as I like to say00:32:47
with whom just a lot of things happened00:32:49
there the pipes and sanctions struck first and00:32:53
the company had a lot of difficulties and00:32:56
the report was also published, it was visible00:32:59
that the company of course has net profit in00:33:02
compared to last year00:33:04
fell very much but still a company00:33:07
paid dividends at least initially00:33:09
she seems to be00:33:10
decided that she would not be paid everything00:33:13
remember this case from '22 when everyone00:33:16
we were just perplexed and guessing from the second00:33:19
times What will happen to companies00:33:21
In summary, what I would like to note is yes00:33:25
Gazprom also has a dividend policy00:33:26
There is also a Target regarding payment00:33:29
dividends The same thing here again00:33:31
risk in the form of ndpi but but friends00:33:34
Perhaps this is a bet on what will happen00:33:37
replenish00:33:38
storage and what is possible here companies00:33:41
will be able to redirect your00:33:44
These are our capacities with the northern stream00:33:47
maybe we can come to an agreement with China00:33:49
This is to come to a conclusion about00:33:51
the forces of Siberia are here, I think it’s more likely00:33:55
There may be dividends in total, but very00:33:58
such, let's say, modest volumes, or00:34:01
this risk may arise associated with00:34:03
taxes, I have Gazprom in00:34:06
briefcase I don't see the point of it from him00:34:08
get rid of it So I just keep it00:34:11
I understand that there are difficulties there00:34:14
which happened to the company but is unlikely00:34:17
whether they are repeated in the future and this00:34:19
potential with renewal00:34:20
cooperation with China, of course00:34:22
will give a large influx in exports and this00:34:27
see in quotes00:34:28
two words also about Gazprom That’s why00:34:32
that after the visit, comrade si and, in principle,00:34:36
after the press conference, a lot of things00:34:39
was said regarding00:34:41
trade relations what will happen00:34:43
to build up is clear the first thing is, well00:34:46
and first of all, China is more profitable for us00:34:48
It’s more profitable for us here. I’m not hiding anything.00:34:51
So, in principle, China is ready to take00:34:53
more and we are ready to sell more00:34:54
oil and gas everything is simple here00:34:57
LNG volumes to China have already increased significantly00:35:00
Until new records of magnitude actually00:35:04
not and already in 2020 67 million tons00:35:06
almost a third of everything was sent in a year00:35:08
export beneficiary here is once again Rosneft00:35:10
that's why But as for Rosneft00:35:14
Novatek even taking into account the rates00:35:17
on Asia for its expansion of demand I don't00:35:20
I know how much demand will grow from00:35:23
oil to China But gas demand to China00:35:26
it will definitely grow, it’s all the same00:35:28
first of all, sooner or later they00:35:31
If only they had already announced this transition00:35:33
a long time ago to completely abandon coal00:35:34
just now in the era of the last two years00:35:36
energy crisis I will buy back even in00:35:38
Europe Here But still bet on the fact that00:35:41
coal should be abandoned in favor of00:35:43
greener energy Yes, that's the bet00:35:45
to GAZ therefore China consumes gas itself00:35:46
there will be more in different types00:35:48
LNG wired if pipe00:35:51
Gazprom didn't like it00:35:55
visit comrades00:35:57
because they didn't sign the contract00:36:00
intentions regarding force building00:36:02
Siberia 2 yes00:36:06
They say that everything is fine with Mongolia00:36:09
all points of the contract have been agreed upon00:36:10
agreed not agreed as always00:36:12
price Well, actually that's it00:36:16
actually the stupor of the power of Siberia00:36:19
as far as I remember I have been on the market for 16 years00:36:22
agreed upon for 10 years00:36:25
the first force of Siberia therefore to say that00:36:28
now even in the current situation when00:36:30
and it is very profitable for us We are ready to give00:36:32
discounts China is basically profitable B00:36:35
current situation Take a discount from us00:36:37
It would seem very much now to China00:36:41
interested in signing this long term00:36:43
the project is very powerful but for now you see00:36:47
will not sign a new growth drive in00:36:49
Gazprom There is no such thing because00:36:50
there is a long-term bet on the hub00:36:53
construction of hubs in Turkey, well after all00:36:57
events that happened in Turkey, well, I'm afraid00:36:59
what again am I saying here if we00:37:02
de facto is already one step away from00:37:05
actual clashes with NATO Türkiye00:37:08
NATO country if they arrive there tomorrow00:37:11
representatives from the USA will say not only00:37:14
banking activities in Russia but also there00:37:16
construction of the hub may have stopped00:37:18
in Turkey this project is also an election00:37:22
presidential elections and again if00:37:25
someone will take the Presidential chair there00:37:28
let's just say young ambitious00:37:30
more pro-Western politician here00:37:32
Of course, even this hub in Turkey is not00:37:36
will be so interesting to China perhaps00:37:37
Russia and China sign treaties00:37:39
by the power of Siberia within the framework of these large00:37:41
ten-year hypercycles maybe00:37:44
here too Just if we say so00:37:45
let's say the spacer is a year or two or three00:37:49
Here's who to buy during corrections00:37:52
which in any case is not too early for us00:37:54
or later they will be on the Russian market then00:37:56
For some reason I can’t buy Gazprom at all00:37:58
want Looking at the growth of Novatek oil00:38:01
Gazprom with its promising coming00:38:03
years even if the power of Siberia approves 2 More00:38:05
since it's a bummer it's still an investment00:38:08
It’s not clear when they will start to pay off00:38:11
so the news may be positive but00:38:13
very long term00:38:15
but Vasily is already shipping like this00:38:18
it really looks good that is us00:38:20
We compare up to 2 competitive competitors00:38:23
from the gas industry, then of course here00:38:26
it looks more interesting this way But how00:38:28
the investor who is Gazprom is simply00:38:30
for now I keep this share in my portfolio Well00:38:33
here is the actual dynamics of dividends yes00:38:35
what we see that the company has is00:38:37
dividend policy with target00:38:39
coefficient of 50 percent of net00:38:41
arrived and so far everything has been announced that00:38:43
will the company adhere to Exactly00:38:46
we see this scenario, what a 21 year00:38:49
dividends were not paid and there are again00:38:52
what are the expectations from the market?00:38:53
here you can share with us00:38:55
profit how to do this For example00:38:57
Sberbank let's see00:39:06
yes of course it is00:39:09
risk one is tax00:39:13
but Novatek really looks interesting00:39:16
I agree with Vasily that he is the beneficiary00:39:19
the company reported very strongly, that is00:39:21
And at the same time, dividends have already been announced00:39:24
recommended by the council 60 and a half00:39:26
rubles per share then dividend00:39:28
profitability he will round it up to the level00:39:30
five percent per annum is only ours00:39:32
for the second half of the year 22 years00:39:35
that is, here we see this00:39:38
a combination that is interesting to catch in00:39:40
dividend shares of the Russian market00:39:42
when you see potential for development00:39:44
business and the second is of course honest00:39:47
relations with shareholders because00:39:50
in principle, our entire dividend00:39:52
The Russian market is just for me00:39:54
seems to be in a formative stage and00:39:56
the search for this maturity because we have here00:39:59
and we’ll say no one’s dividend aristocrats00:40:01
from this cohort there is no And if Novatek00:40:05
will continue such an honest relationship00:40:07
with the potential within the business00:40:09
huge this is of course a wonderful story00:40:12
person so far except for dividends00:40:14
clear and prospects00:40:17
there is no Frost driver as such, but if00:40:20
we're talking about six months in advance, yes00:40:22
that is, there is no need to buy this share If00:40:24
do you expect to catch something here?00:40:26
another six months of growth here are the drivers00:40:28
growth will appear just from next00:40:30
launches will play out for years Here's how00:40:32
since there are new projects and accordingly00:40:34
increase in exports to China itself00:40:37
after the launch of new projects because00:40:39
it is in Chinese that the flow will go well in00:40:40
Europe goes on like this and let’s not forget again00:40:43
that Novatek is one of the few too00:40:45
players to whom it sells to Europe at00:40:47
spot prices and spot gas prices in00:40:50
Europe I think we'll see more this year00:40:51
3000 and one and a half and 2000 dollars we will see00:40:54
we'll see in the summer I think in Europe When00:40:57
this question will begin00:41:02
and it’s not even May These are not my fantasies00:41:04
this is already the head of the Ministry of God00:41:10
Europe's energy sector has already talked about this00:41:12
warns himself personally even if we00:41:15
remember last summer Yes, when we00:41:17
you actively discussed the gas market00:41:19
this is where the rats are00:41:22
this stone is here00:41:24
3000 4 maybe we'll see Well, we finished off the three ruble00:41:27
Well, now it’s about one and a half to two thousand per game.00:41:29
in the summer we must therefore be here again00:41:32
will benefit from this Be healthy because00:41:35
Europe is taking St. Petersburg. Therefore, if we fail00:41:38
friends Here is some kind of review on00:41:40
oil and gas industry, then I repeat Yes on00:41:42
VTEC is interesting let's put it this way with perspective00:41:45
Yes, if you take it, if you, well, if you00:41:48
long term investor like me that is you00:41:50
Vasily speculator here I will speak in favor00:41:52
long-term investors because it is00:41:54
fair relationship with shareholders yes00:41:57
that is, dividend commitment00:41:59
politics is what is for me as for00:42:00
investors is important and the second second is00:42:03
of course potential for development00:42:04
business and here are a few issuers00:42:06
This is NAVATEK Labeled this by Gazpro00:42:10
long-term rate But this again00:42:13
if you hold it If you only hold it00:42:15
you plan to take it or not take it for such a00:42:18
tactical level it is better to bet00:42:20
in favor of Novatek regarding oil00:42:23
Rosneft and Lukoil, that is, I’m talking about Lukoil00:42:25
I said a lot that Lukoil is also for me00:42:27
interesting but for now we’re just waiting and Nosov with00:42:30
Lukoil side will also move with you to00:42:33
other companies that do the same00:42:36
is indirectly related to this market00:42:38
Sovcomflot this week00:42:41
Sovcomflot is also active here00:42:44
I was pleased with the news that everything was in Comfort00:42:47
also dividend policy 50 percent00:42:49
that is, everything is honestly possible here00:42:51
payment of dividends of about seven00:42:54
percentage returns are very00:42:58
May be00:42:59
poor results in the operating room00:43:03
activities based on financial results00:43:04
for 22 year Because reporting is wrong00:43:08
which form00:43:10
I expected there to be more tempo00:43:12
growth but there is potential for next year00:43:14
Because the cost of the fract Yes, this is it00:43:17
this is the amount included in the profit00:43:20
this company is on its own00:43:22
Such good marks, that is, higher00:43:24
average five-year-olds in recent years there00:43:27
about 60 thousand dollars a day for the fact00:43:29
And this is three times higher00:43:32
five-year level Therefore with potential00:43:34
here Of course you can look at00:43:37
sovcomflot but again be careful00:43:40
and be careful sanctions are such a thing00:43:42
state company00:43:45
the state now really needs a tanker00:43:48
fleet00:43:49
and the state gives itself the same00:43:52
company itself within this00:43:55
companies allocate billions of rubles for00:43:57
construction and, accordingly, what00:43:59
the larger the tanker fleet the larger00:44:00
the company itself will earn00:44:01
everything is logical Everyone is just like that here00:44:05
conduct hypothetical geopolitical00:44:07
risks Well, I don’t know, it’s kind of hard for me00:44:09
say I'm also profitable because00:44:12
giant company Despite the fact that00:44:14
Despite the fact that it went public in00:44:16
July 21 this company is ten years old00:44:19
history That is, it went to IPO00:44:20
probably when it really happened00:44:23
just a good interesting moment for00:44:25
exit and plans only for the Arctic00:44:28
ambitious Yes, Russia seems to be doing well now00:44:31
let's not talk about them Yes, we're all for it00:44:34
the last two weeks there have been so many00:44:35
statements were made for this reason00:44:38
the last months just google A00:44:41
here, as it were, with the help of whom are all these00:44:43
Develop Arctic projects00:44:46
And what do you use to transport oil and gas females?00:44:50
and sounds like the slogan Let's move on00:44:53
Actually, here is our revenue structure00:44:56
because well00:44:58
already said: Why is this growth rate00:45:00
there is 22 percent Against the background of the fact that the rate00:45:03
was made by this company And that's a lot00:45:06
it was said during the year here of course00:45:08
I would like to see something more interesting00:45:10
results but nevertheless about00:45:12
Sberbank Despite the fact that dividends were00:45:16
announced last week Vasily00:45:18
I don’t know where you were watching No this mark00:45:20
there at 204 we broke through this level at 20000:45:24
I'll collect rubles00:45:26
to some extent even legendary and00:45:29
many investors went let's say00:45:31
probably many speculators are not investors00:45:33
speculators began to take profits00:45:35
partially I, as an investor, look and observe00:45:39
to this story and of course as soon as00:45:41
we will get closer to some corrections00:45:43
movements local correction or00:45:45
dividend cutoffs I will this company00:45:47
pick up00:45:48
Sber has already published00:45:50
results for two months 23 years and we00:45:55
we see that net net interest income00:45:57
is growing by double digits as the net00:46:02
profit also for two months 23 years00:46:04
compared with two months of the past00:46:07
the year has also grown simply incredible00:46:09
the magnitude here is definitely in this00:46:12
stories Sberovskaya dividend dividend I see potential00:46:15
in order to keep and let's say00:46:18
pick up company for some00:46:20
correctional stories because here00:46:21
How did you correctly note taxes?00:46:25
no, no threat, but some one-time fees00:46:28
which may or may not become00:46:31
in mind This also happens, but00:46:33
the company still has potential00:46:35
I see why not Well not right now00:46:38
we need to start playing now00:46:41
Yes00:46:43
Rosneft cutoff dividend history00:46:45
Novotek Sberbank Probably this00:46:47
It’s unreasonable to wait for yourself now00:46:50
cut-off drop in shares by the amount00:46:52
cutoffs Well, maybe even a little lower00:46:55
or Well, it’s probably wiser to come in after00:46:57
cutoffs well in my opinion well after after00:46:59
meetings because you and I are just00:47:01
also discussed that00:47:03
there won't be a very good sense of smell in the world00:47:06
just a feeling, even usually friends in00:47:09
good period in twenty-one00:47:12
For a very long time in Russia everything has been closed00:47:15
dividend gaps that is usually00:47:17
about a month. Therefore, if suddenly you00:47:19
are worried and want to take it straight away00:47:21
cut-off00:47:22
you shouldn't do it because you really shouldn't00:47:24
there will be a statistical period of about 30 days and00:47:28
even more by some names for that00:47:29
to go into these papers that you00:47:31
interested00:47:34
Bank "Saint-Petersburg00:47:36
to be honest, Vasily probably until now00:47:40
these00:47:42
before the Russian economy became00:47:45
isolated did not pay attention to what00:47:47
us there is such there is such an issuer was in00:47:50
Petersburg I have been to Vasily many times00:47:53
Petersburg I really love this one00:47:56
city but didn’t know what it was but didn’t know00:48:00
what is such a bank St. Petersburg Bank00:48:03
Primorye I know Bank St. Petersburg no00:48:07
what I want to say Yes today the bank00:48:10
published reports in some such00:48:13
in a stripped down form, the SBU again sees that00:48:15
interest income increased over 22 years 3700:48:19
percentage commissions have increased00:48:21
dividend recommendation And what's most00:48:23
interesting Yes friends what a recommendation00:48:26
modest there is not 50 percent but pure00:48:28
profit is only 20 percent, that is00:48:30
if you think about it like that, it’s even possible00:48:32
expect some dividends in between00:48:35
or again just building up00:48:38
let's say such monetary strength00:48:40
pillows for subsequent payments now00:48:43
certain video these are Arrows00:48:45
candles up that are not moving here00:48:48
worth dropping by again00:48:50
attention investors that this is not special00:48:52
liquid paper Despite the fact that it00:48:55
like this of course on dividends00:48:56
the news has grown now that's if we00:49:00
let's talk about this let's say like this00:49:01
a classic cartoonist00:49:03
pretty cheap let's say but00:49:06
Be careful because here00:49:08
there is no such transparency and00:49:10
dividend wooden relations00:49:13
There are no long-term ones either, again 2000:49:16
percent and net profit is 5000:49:18
percent how it was for example00:49:20
analogies with Sberbank00:49:22
VTB I don’t know I think when it was00:49:26
news was published on Monday00:49:28
It's Sunday, well, it's a record00:49:32
record profit for the quarter00:49:36
Yes, Vasily is here. Personally, I don’t think00:49:40
It's already a [ __ ] block maybe00:49:44
maybe said maybe well just00:49:46
investors it might be somehow00:49:49
interpreted a little wrong because00:49:51
what in the quotes we saw this00:49:53
maybe maybe maybe yeah too00:49:56
thank you, I see, that's it, friends00:49:58
me and Vasily very often00:50:01
we are discussing the topic of VTB I am00:50:03
I'm a purely investor00:50:05
view I always look at it as an issuer00:50:08
how the company behaves in good faith with00:50:11
investors not with speculators00:50:12
jump off there to let's just say00:50:15
go to the restaurant carriages get out then No00:50:18
I am an investor I sit down at the bus stop Yes00:50:24
Certainly00:50:28
three I stand still the fourth you see And what00:50:32
tastier00:50:34
the more I will of course00:50:39
the more00:50:42
just Why should I as an investor00:50:46
This is the story of subords Yes, it was interesting00:50:49
deal opening but how curious she is00:50:53
passed us because there is also00:50:54
question Yes, Sergei Botkin asks in00:50:58
what's the point00:50:59
boards for Bones00:51:03
They get something out of it friends00:51:08
one of the hypotheses is yes, what if you00:51:11
carry out additional missions then you reduce00:51:14
so to speak00:51:17
you dilute the shareholders' share but at00:51:19
for yourself personally, yes you are definitely reducing00:51:22
debt load is very important because00:51:24
acquisition of some assets00:51:26
the perimeter of the same bank Otkritie00:51:28
This is black extra for you00:51:30
interest load you cry00:51:32
pay interest on this one of yours00:51:35
absorption so it was probably00:51:38
curious A curious move to00:51:41
protect yourself improve your00:51:43
financial position its stability00:51:46
but as for investors, this is not for me00:51:49
interesting it’s bad when there’s an additional emission00:51:52
announce the issuer When you are already00:51:54
investor This is bad00:51:57
blurred further will be bad00:52:01
and this or that company, in principle, well00:52:04
if it has further potential00:52:06
business growth Yes, we are talking now about00:52:08
business and she raises money through00:52:10
additional commission erodes the share of minority00:52:13
shareholders then for you If you don't keep00:52:15
this company is good for you in this00:52:18
moment and good event therefore00:52:20
investment investors are indignant about what00:52:22
damn, the bank will have a profit now00:52:25
it will be possible even more more then how00:52:26
you don't grow [ __ ] because it's profit00:52:29
per share As they say somehow it becomes00:52:31
will no longer grow logically logically00:52:34
But for me this case is currently00:52:37
interesting moment now there will be another one00:52:41
such a mission and at a market price00:52:43
as far as I already understand because there00:52:44
there were a lot of conversations, a lot of questions00:52:47
what's there00:52:48
NPFs will participate yes They will not participate in the market00:52:51
nothing to pour into NPF and they will buy everything back but now00:52:54
here we are talking about 90 billion and00:52:56
market price00:52:57
to the waist they will come as soon as I am carried out00:53:00
I’ll actually pick up the shares, maybe even00:53:02
in the long term Irina right Why do it before00:53:06
according to the mission you borrowed money to buy00:53:08
Otkritie Bank conditionally gave you a loan00:53:10
There Let there be 350 billion rubles00:53:14
You can borrow money for free00:53:17
loan cancellation on subords payments good00:53:22
this is a normal measure that saves00:53:25
the bank almost 150 billion a year and that00:53:27
in principle, he could do three missions without additional missions00:53:29
year to pay off the entire purchase of the bottle opener00:53:32
all the debts And so they save on subards00:53:35
so far 150 yards and also with additional additions so far00:53:38
now all the debt that was taken on is yes00:53:41
reorganization for the purchase, I do not rule out that they00:53:44
bought their own Bard's soup when they00:53:47
sank and then these subards themselves00:53:50
will bounce back and they will make money on it and00:53:52
will show a [ __ ] report there through00:53:54
quarter in two through three plus new ones00:53:56
reports no longer mean just a bank00:53:59
bank plus opening so there are numbers there00:54:02
there must be completely different cosines00:54:04
basically nothing supernatural to us00:54:06
I didn’t tell you I told you about the same thing00:54:07
there will be against the background of previous years00:54:09
the reports are completely better, but if you do everything00:54:12
competently and look now Yes if00:54:16
they are from the subard and maybe there are still shares00:54:18
market bought yours now show00:54:20
good reports for the quarter may be for00:54:23
second quarter good report later00:54:25
start a rumor about a possible return to00:54:28
dividends after the first half of the year and00:54:30
shares will soar by another 20 percent plus00:54:33
interest will skyrocket, subards are needed00:54:35
which they will earn after that00:54:38
if it's still for sale you can take it for a ride00:54:39
generally a [ __ ] profit if00:54:42
do everything correctly and most likely so00:54:44
everything will be done correctly then what are you doing00:54:47
paid00:54:48
at the expense of the investor investors you helped00:54:51
buy Kostina bank Now I will have00:54:53
good reports good profit plus00:54:56
they will still make money on subboards and then00:54:57
will actually restore the payment for00:54:59
subords when when the price for them will skyrocket00:55:02
in short it is possible00:55:05
Don `t come in00:55:08
after thoughts before which will take place soon00:55:10
there yes probably the final one for now00:55:12
in the near future this asset will become mine00:55:14
Interesting00:55:18
as a business it's better I don't take it00:55:21
business I am considering the situation00:55:27
just to get the point across00:55:31
which is very important here00:55:33
integrity and long-term00:55:35
fair relationship00:55:37
very important quantity00:55:42
Let's say a block in Russia with gold, then what?00:55:45
We have a lot of questions about gold00:55:47
no schedule today but this week00:55:49
gold broke the $2,000 mark00:55:52
ounce I was also extremely surprised00:55:54
gold I continue to hold briefcases and you00:55:57
Vasily showed the commodities index00:56:00
what matters is that Gold is the only one00:56:03
gold silver segment in this index00:56:07
which is growing, here I am holding gold00:56:10
while maintaining the position, it is also important to note that00:56:13
I keep in gold funds which00:56:16
converted from dollars and now00:56:18
are traded in rubles so everything is in00:56:20
not bad in principle00:56:23
there are expectations after having already been00:56:25
breakout of $2,000 per ounce00:56:28
that the crisis may be unfolding00:56:31
Yes, in the West it will also be reflected in00:56:35
gold prices and here, of course, they can00:56:37
to be a level higher than us to my surprise00:56:40
perhaps 2000 per ounce and above00:56:43
this is what I see on the dollar So00:56:46
let's talk about the Bank's international reserves00:56:49
Russia because not so long ago they became00:56:51
published on the last issue I00:56:53
said yes about buyers that the main ones00:56:56
gold buyers central banks were00:56:58
our big buyer is precisely00:57:01
The Central Bank of China and we see what00:57:04
Russia, too, in principle00:57:05
the share is increasing in00:57:08
gold and foreign exchange reserves if we are here00:57:11
see yes in millions of ounces in January 2200:57:15
years and we became interested in about00:57:19
there on00:57:20
23 percent to 25 percent there generally00:57:23
in the overall structure of international reserves00:57:25
that is, again, so global00:57:28
Point Why does it seem to me that there is gold there?00:57:31
in conjunction with the same Bitcoin00:57:33
It's not a bad idea to bet on 23 years because00:57:36
that again such big guys How00:57:38
central banks are picking it up again00:57:41
it doesn't matter00:57:42
sooner or later our rates will go down00:57:44
These are the assets I show00:57:46
the most beautiful growth precisely during the period00:57:49
rate cuts So I'm just not waiting00:57:51
I need to say this Look at my latest00:57:54
air during the period of rate reduction even00:57:55
zero gold fell00:57:57
bets bets here The more they rise00:58:00
rates the faster the stress in the economy00:58:02
gold comes and protection from stress But00:58:04
if there are no risks of stress to the world system00:58:07
there will be gold back 1800 to your plasma00:58:11
because I want to show my portfolio00:58:14
Yes friends about the portfolio structure00:58:19
I also made a small cut like this00:58:22
53 percent in my shares everything is like00:58:25
soon Vasily I will return to my million00:58:30
because it really seems to me00:58:32
wonderful story on its own00:58:34
I show by example how an investor is very00:58:36
difficult periods of crisis but fail00:58:39
lose capital is also a demonstration00:58:42
something and also keeping your view too00:58:46
I have a question about the Chinese market. What00:58:49
we will also do with shares a little later00:58:52
friends will also consider a positive look00:58:54
I have whales there this week00:58:56
Of course, the shares were actively growing00:58:57
Lenovo exchange also came to life again00:59:00
Hong Kong so here we are in more detail00:59:02
Let's look at my Cap growing there00:59:06
[laughter]00:59:08
By the way, at the moment it almost turned out to be a plus00:59:11
again at minus 1500:59:14
just not 300 bucks 300 bucks00:59:16
the entire portfolio was frozen Well00:59:19
in short, friends00:59:21
My investor focus is still in00:59:24
this project Despite all your00:59:25
Vasily's efforts continue to be maintained00:59:28
now move towards yourself00:59:32
just more exhausted than in00:59:35
any week in the last year Well not00:59:37
I know I’ve read and studied so much and00:59:42
it was related How it developed00:59:44
structurally the crisis is generally eight years old00:59:47
the reasons for it are like this, you who haven’t read00:59:52
I watched the movies beautifully, as if everything00:59:54
you know plus or minus everything approximately00:59:56
it’s similar to what the films seem to tell00:59:59
But01:00:01
the reasons are fundamental, yes01:00:07
what was happening who covered it up01:00:10
eyes and why all this happened01:00:11
allowed here in this when you figure it out and01:00:15
Damn this really gives me goosebumps because01:00:17
what's all that's happening right now you think01:00:19
Damn everything that happened then but this is already01:00:23
just flowers compared to that01:00:25
the madness that is happening now and01:00:27
of course take it there, ok then01:00:29
derivatives tool Okay01:00:31
derivatives were invented there, but now01:00:34
size number of derivatives in the world01:00:36
some kind01:00:38
a quadrillion or so there01:00:40
volume of derivatives on the market You can01:00:43
just imagine01:00:46
they all had problems crash 90 i01:00:50
the collapse of 87 even the year is essentially there Yes,01:00:53
even in those days I rolled with a elbow01:00:57
told 98 year all the problem is01:01:00
derivatives but now the derivatives market01:01:02
even in recent decades has grown in01:01:05
times01:01:08
everything became more confusing and more complicated01:01:11
the question about Zolotaya is a question everywhere01:01:13
Why is this all a thing?01:01:16
with impunity this is all they give to the bank01:01:19
opportunity01:01:20
Well, this is all to produce and build01:01:24
pyramids turn a blind eye to the future01:01:26
potential risk that it carries01:01:29
This is a gigantic threat, all this01:01:32
Well, these are all virtual assets01:01:35
the air that is produced and this is01:01:38
here is the fundamental basis01:01:40
why was this prevented?01:01:42
different comrades in different years and01:01:46
warned and entire cases were sorted out and01:01:50
were right in the sixth seventh year in01:01:52
fourth why does this all lead but not01:01:55
They just gave you as much as you can01:01:58
imagine how powerful this is01:02:01
this conglomerate of five US banks01:02:03
That essentially no one can do anything01:02:07
essentially prohibit that the Fed encourages all this01:02:10
and the coalition works that rating01:02:13
agencies all work with them in a coalition01:02:15
everyone is connected everyone is trying on this01:02:17
make money from a crisis when it01:02:20
it happens that this whole group earns money01:02:22
even more and what is now starting01:02:25
take place01:02:26
benefits Only some people get A's01:02:29
largest American banks again01:02:31
there will be a crisis01:02:33
and hundreds of banks will simply disappear01:02:36
worth a fiver she will be the beneficiary01:02:39
new crisis they will earn new ones01:02:41
hundreds of billions of dollars billions01:02:43
counting bonuses too01:02:46
everything is the same like this in a circle but01:02:48
we were a lot Yes, there was just a lot01:02:52
There’s even a lot of information for yourself01:02:54
I found out and why I was simply shocked when01:02:57
I'm talking about the insurer and AG Especially me01:03:01
I didn't even know it was you from the movie The Game01:03:03
downgrade you know that Michael Bury drives01:03:05
these provide insurance against default Yes01:03:07
but how goldman sax played against that01:03:10
crap that he sold to people01:03:13
it’s better not to talk about volumes and all this01:03:15
made through the largest sold to people01:03:17
toxic [ __ ] and immediately opened on them01:03:19
insurance and on such a scale that01:03:22
you never even dreamed01:03:25
when he went to bed they saved him01:03:28
nationalized and Goldman paid01:03:31
still a giant bonus01:03:34
from public money for the fact that he01:03:37
he did it all and he himself is against it01:03:39
I bet the money is hundreds of billions01:03:41
dollars01:03:43
and did it all01:03:46
who came01:03:47
became US Secretary of the Treasury01:03:51
sixth year where he came from01:03:57
everything is simple everything is simple01:04:01
everything everything I just mean I often have01:04:04
they will add you in the comments Is that really you?01:04:06
here you are talking about the situation under01:04:08
control that Are they really that stupid?01:04:11
they don't see they will allow they are not stupid they01:04:14
smart people they earn billions from01:04:18
every crisis remember crises all01:04:20
man-made01:04:22
any bubbles are inflated manually And01:04:25
in the same way they are manually blown away in any01:04:28
crisis the poor are getting poorer the rich are getting richer01:04:31
crisis redistributes capital from01:04:34
poor rich01:04:35
everyone who continued now has loans01:04:38
the company will go bankrupt and be left without a job01:04:40
default who will benefit from it01:04:43
Goldman Sachs Jeep Morgan Bank of01:04:46
America Morgan Stanley perhaps yet01:04:49
valfarga if too01:04:52
the same ones who win everything win01:04:55
previous other crises01:04:58
The only guys who will have money are those who01:05:01
directly to the pipe with sit01:05:03
everything is the same everything is man-made everything everything01:05:06
understand, believe me, this is a new crisis01:05:09
there will be new opportunities because01:05:11
now there are opportunities beyond earnings01:05:13
there is nothing else like it so we need something01:05:16
make new ones appear01:05:17
possibilities Question what form is it01:05:20
hold on to just peace after this01:05:22
still existed Because if you bring01:05:24
until the collapse of the entire economy But this will cause01:05:27
unemployment is 20-30 percent in the world then01:05:30
then the system becomes uncontrollable01:05:32
agree then the government does not01:05:34
will retain power nowhere in America or in01:05:37
In Europe, if trade unions are now reaching out to01:05:40
the street is on strike then it will be easy01:05:41
mass riot everywhere hungry this01:05:44
the situation will be impossible to control01:05:46
the government will simply be overthrown, it's chaos and01:05:49
they also understand that’s why the system01:05:51
You can clear it You can and you can folk it01:05:53
didn't make a crisis, but somehow01:05:55
don't let it completely flow now01:05:56
situations can be very very difficult01:06:00
skip this moment01:06:01
horseradish01:06:05
wanted 20-30 banks Yes, a little under01:06:09
bankruptcy managed to clear the system01:06:10
230 or 330 So yes So there is such a panic01:06:15
what will happen from Goldman and from Morgan01:06:18
the money will take everything to hell, bye there01:06:20
only deposited from regional banks A01:06:22
if panic panic then even of them01:06:24
they'll take it out then, yes01:06:26
so there is a line here, everything, everything01:06:28
the smart guys there understand, I'm not saying01:06:30
that they are fools Yes, and Pavel is there even though I have him01:06:35
OK01:06:41
terrible situation, I'm kind of alone now01:06:44
Damn me, what are you asking here?01:06:47
comments unfortunately are the last01:06:49
time01:06:50
Vasya is tired of watching the same thing01:06:52
there were some investment ideas before01:06:54
some stock portfolios I'm not ready01:06:58
now buy foreign active01:07:01
Russian I was not so long ago01:07:02
closed the briefcase I just explained, well01:07:04
risk Well wait another 3-4 weeks01:07:07
favorable daughters there I Well, I don’t want01:07:10
I'm ready probably in June in July later I01:07:14
I think they’ll give me a reduced price, that’s all01:07:15
regarding here01:07:17
foreign assets I don't see the point01:07:20
first of all the quarter ends01:07:21
so soon mid-April will come01:07:24
earnings season where we will watch01:07:27
probably not Rainbow faces again01:07:31
probably anyone Well, in general I'm not well01:07:34
agree, nothing in the first quarter01:07:36
there was no such fantastic economy01:07:39
there was stagnation in all indicators01:07:41
Therefore, the company has a quarterly profit01:07:43
quarter is unlikely to grow01:07:48
Yes, I’m talking about foreign ones, that is, we01:07:50
Let's look at the picture: banks are collapsing there. How01:07:53
a situation occurs but we don’t take it away01:07:55
We are not currently considering any assets01:07:56
we will consider the middle01:07:58
reporting and we will monitor them I01:08:00
creating my own power sheet I even have two of them01:08:02
Top 20 companies Top 15 companies Yes01:08:04
they are a little different there01:08:06
aggressive more conservative Here they are01:08:08
those companies that are constantly changing01:08:10
I liked it already 2-3 quarters ago01:08:12
I don’t like it, I cross them out there and in01:08:14
due to different circumstances it changes01:08:16
I'm getting ready, I'll still wait at least01:08:18
the mark is closer to 3,000 according to S&P01:08:21
maybe, well some maybe01:08:23
local ideas Maybe higher up there01:08:25
will catch on Well, I'm ready to get closer to01:08:27
three rubles to buy the American market01:08:29
How much more time will I need?01:08:30
wait I don’t know maybe a month maybe01:08:33
maybe six months maybe a year01:08:36
I don't know, I'll wait01:08:42
if they even start the printing press01:08:44
in the second half of the year or will begin to decline01:08:46
bet What is it too Perhaps it is01:08:48
will lead to an increase in American indices01:08:50
maybe ok01:08:53
What happens after I already recorded this episode01:08:56
It will be even worse. So we’ll catch it later.01:08:58
not three rubles, but two and a half already if they are01:09:01
it will be decided that's all01:09:03
and so history shows so wait01:09:07
this is the hardest thing01:09:09
do nothing wait but again I'm not I'm in01:09:13
Pulse wrote this week01:09:14
speculated01:09:16
Very successful for the first republican01:09:20
bank here01:09:22
it was clear Well, first of all, I'm first01:09:25
the first panic bought there literally yes01:09:28
that is, when there was already an understanding that you01:09:29
there are 7 banks for him from the coalition01:09:32
support Fedor seems to give credit01:09:33
lines so it seems like you won’t drown01:09:36
must and plus respectively no01:09:38
final decision from the Ministry of Finance01:09:40
USA relative to all deposits Therefore01:09:43
while this story was hanging in doubt Yes01:09:45
Well, I decided to panic buy, I bought 1201:09:47
40 percent came out the next day01:09:49
sold at the Fed meeting01:09:52
It just makes my hair stand on end when01:09:55
the rate is increased market 440501:10:03
what's going on in what's going on01:10:07
in this Fifth Rate she kills01:10:10
economy at such a pace that where it is not01:10:13
about the recession color system will soon be01:10:15
the market is growing01:10:16
where is he anyway just what's going on Well then01:10:20
It’s happening, it’s clear. Now I’ll explain.01:10:22
what is growth?01:10:24
shorted Well, in the last hour of trading01:10:27
of course immediately from plus to minus one and a half01:10:30
if it flies out, well, there's old lady Elin01:10:33
helped spoke now let's talk01:10:35
Yesterday I don’t understand Thursday the SNT market01:10:39
open again buys out the whole fall and01:10:42
restored to 4000 again01:10:45
[music]01:10:47
4000 shorts Okay rolled back, seems to be closed01:10:51
nothing 150 100 Well 100 with kopecks01:10:54
I took points on two shorts within a day01:10:57
I'm speculating I can't do this on the show01:11:00
show or even deal so far to you01:11:02
these deals will give01:11:04
I just see, well, that's just sometimes01:11:06
An anomaly there Yes, especially when there’s a plus01:11:09
16 yesterday plus one of the family is growing all01:11:12
gap yesterday bought before Hi Where from01:11:14
sales started But those who were stuck during the day01:11:17
earlier at the same marks that they will be01:11:18
what to do if they come to these marks Well01:11:20
ok just turn on the logic How01:11:22
works It's just the market players on it you01:11:25
bought Damn I don’t know where Alibaba is there01:11:27
100 conditionally there yes She flew away at 90 there01:11:30
in two days And in three days01:11:31
Returns to 100 height, [ __ ] 10001:11:33
close it at least01:11:35
the same thing happens to the markets, they returned01:11:38
of course I fetched him the previous day01:11:39
damn it again Well again I didn’t take 7 seconds01:11:42
so not even for a couple thousand dollars01:11:46
bought01:11:47
double go to wix double key01:11:51
really01:11:53
plus 40 percent per hour01:11:57
this is a small volume, purely neighing No01:12:00
I have something to entertain myself, I watch right away01:12:02
behind the market behind the situation behind everything but01:12:04
buy a share for a month for six months for01:12:06
week No now I don’t want any of those01:12:10
which were I sold them all at a loss too01:12:12
you Ask with translations John everything is sold01:12:14
subbytkom is even closed at 109 good01:12:17
the second time everything is closed somewhere around 106 no01:12:20
nothing but01:12:23
intraday speculation at night I01:12:26
back01:12:28
10 years ago, what did you do? Well, that’s it01:12:31
it really just might be the start time01:12:32
allow it or something but it's real01:12:35
back to intraday what I'm not01:12:37
I've probably been doing it for many, many years01:12:39
Well now I like the market it’s mine01:12:42
favorite market01:12:44
that's why I have to do this And here I am01:12:47
while I'm waiting friends that's why I don't want to01:12:49
sort out shares recommend some01:12:50
ideas, we are waiting, enjoying and just following01:12:54
behind the processes they are very interesting and01:12:56
important, well, this is History, this is01:12:58
understanding what is happening01:13:01
so look01:13:05
firstly on the s&p technique Well, March is almost01:13:08
it's closing for us, yes it was April with us01:13:10
still falling in April February01:13:13
February corrected01:13:16
The month of March still has a week left But on01:13:19
current moment the candle is now neutral01:13:21
at 4000 points Oh well, here’s the screen Yesterday01:13:23
did in the moment Just where the shorts are almost01:13:25
opened Well, the candle was still green01:13:27
as if or white it’s not a month yet01:13:30
growing but if we close the month01:13:33
April the month of March until the falling candle then01:13:37
of course the likelihood only increases01:13:38
Now, if you had ordered it it would have been perfect01:13:42
at the bottom Yes at the bottom in January That's it01:13:45
of course there would be a clean reversal here01:13:48
the goal of the meter is the pattern to be funny01:13:49
would be ideal Well, that is, in any way01:13:52
case, in January there was an increase in February and01:13:56
March is just a tough sideways month for us.01:13:59
high amplitude there is no trend here01:14:02
I don’t like all this and the market01:14:05
would have fallen long ago01:14:07
and it wouldn’t even be 3500 Or maybe01:14:10
there may not even be three illusions of stability01:14:12
create01:14:14
artificially inflated system with money01:14:18
tons of money it creates artificially01:14:21
the illusion that everything is fine01:14:23
indexes seem to hold up because of this01:14:25
and now there is even panic and01:14:28
many are closing deposits in American01:14:30
banks and buy Oddly enough Apple01:14:32
Microsoft weight of two companies 14 percent01:14:37
absolutely historical record two01:14:39
companies in the index01:14:42
I'm not near the highs almost01:14:45
not that everything is fine with them, no buybacks01:14:48
Well, there are still believers01:14:51
That's why01:14:52
note that in addition to what we say there01:14:55
withdrawing deposits as a sign of mistrust01:14:58
the banking system has a lot of money01:15:00
goes to a money market fund anyway01:15:03
they are fleeing both gold and crypto everywhere01:15:08
there is demand Yes and plus the flow of the largest01:15:11
banks from regional ones go yes, but someone01:15:13
you even see it entering the stock market01:15:14
also reports from foreign brokers, what they01:15:17
watching people who have money there01:15:19
250 thousand are wealthy people Well, yes01:15:23
they can't have millions of dollars there01:15:25
stuff the crypt in what or in gold01:15:26
of course that kind of money is scary, that's why I01:15:29
would be for diversification I see Well then01:15:31
buy the most stable two companies01:15:33
there are two of them on the American market But before01:15:36
there were three Well, Google is a little under the weather now01:15:38
pressure and the advertising market seems to01:15:39
is stagnating and so it would be Apple and01:15:44
Microsoft everything is logical so they too01:15:47
hold snp 14 percent01:15:51
Well, okay, the problem is not in this general01:15:53
here from a technical point of view But here01:15:54
just Yes, at the beginning of the year two jumped01:15:57
months, in fact, that's plus 5 minus 5 plus 501:15:59
3 800 creatures were kept Yes they were kept in01:16:03
December and retained 3,802 in March we01:16:07
touched this most important level if 3 80001:16:09
we'll break through all 3,500 we won't stop Well01:16:12
really we won’t stop, it’s all the way to01:16:13
three rubles opens immediately01:16:15
so they understand too01:16:25
the situation in banking01:16:27
what's going on with banks in the USA, it's clear that she01:16:30
spread to Europe today black01:16:31
day for European banks Yes, we have a subsidiary bank01:16:34
finally started to wet here's the credit whistle01:16:36
about him Okay, now about him01:16:39
[music]01:16:41
this week yes01:16:44
there was this deal of being taken over by a demon01:16:47
the second competitive bank at the same time01:16:49
the loan is again a bank with 150 years01:16:52
this jar and swallowed everything and swallowed01:16:55
also the biggest question is what is needed there01:16:58
balance sheets of this crisis because there01:17:00
as you said yourself, persuaded yes01:17:04
you see, I didn’t remember today01:17:07
caught my eye the name of the bank I am01:17:09
The last time the rumor was uttered was in 201101:17:11
when the defaultele is heated the oldest01:17:14
I think there is a bank on the planet01:17:16
Italian Paschi Gums is the most01:17:20
the oldest bank on the planet in my opinion01:17:21
is considered shorter now for her too01:17:23
puts it as one of the first in Europe01:17:26
it’s also easy to declare default01:17:30
really the least stable01:17:31
I think he is considered the oldest on the planet01:17:34
Okay, it spread to Europe, everything about it01:17:38
you mean you thought too01:17:43
ubs bought Credit Swiss01:17:46
he didn't want to buy for a billion01:17:48
dollars for a billion pounds but in the end01:17:50
bought for three for a billion he refused01:17:53
bought for three01:17:55
the regulator insisted on giving a credit line01:17:58
help insisted that he be sanitized01:18:02
Credit Swiss assets worth half a trillion01:18:06
500 billion01:18:08
I didn’t want to buy it without it01:18:11
buy for a billion01:18:12
Can you imagine what he knows what he doesn't01:18:17
we know01:18:18
what kind of crap should it consist of?01:18:21
this portfolio of assets is the same as without it01:18:24
I didn’t even want to pay a billion01:18:26
can you imagine01:18:29
And now attention to the question: Where is everyone?01:18:32
these Basel committee standards01:18:35
standards everything else everything that01:18:37
was introduced to regulate financial01:18:39
sectors in the world01:18:42
this is all such a fiction of norms01:18:44
capital adequacy norm01:18:47
amount of crap and asset and and shoulders in01:18:51
no one looks at different assets01:18:55
and the same credit whistle Why are the reports not01:18:58
came out Yes because manipulation01:18:59
in numbers01:19:01
sketched in previous years therefore01:19:03
I didn't even go out, you know?01:19:05
how much shish kebab dig into any01:19:08
the bank there Tryndets half of these assets01:19:12
doesn't cost anything01:19:15
Nothing01:19:17
they wrote off subordinate bonds for01:19:20
17 billion01:19:21
All people lost these assets in dollars01:19:25
got it very cool Arabs Arabs invested01:19:28
a decent share of the loan with conditional visas01:19:30
punished invested billion dollars01:19:32
they have 50 million left01:19:35
Hello01:19:36
soup boards on the banks market volume three with01:19:41
half a trillion is all this crap01:19:43
terrible force after01:19:45
after the credit swiss flew down How did you01:19:49
do you understand three and a half trillion? This is01:19:52
why do I always talk about garbage?01:19:53
Of course there is many times more garbage there, dozens of them01:19:57
trillions is nothing at all01:19:59
should cost 0 but now it costs01:20:01
several tens of trillions but regarding01:20:04
court boards three and a half trillion01:20:05
that's about all this is scary01:20:07
strength is now also flying down and early or01:20:10
it's too late it will all be written off too01:20:11
there will also be losses for investors Therefore01:20:14
if VTB or Tinkov is still a mess01:20:16
suspends payments friends this01:20:19
the bank [ __ ] cares about its01:20:21
sustainability because it may end01:20:24
that's how the loan works There, in general, they're all bards01:20:29
so interest payments are nothing again01:20:32
We chose the youngest duty and01:20:34
understood his risks perfectly well. And if not01:20:36
understood again to read what debt what01:20:38
you are taking01:20:40
so the loan history shows01:20:43
What [music]01:20:45
banks have up to half of their balance sheets01:20:48
portfolio asset is complete crap01:20:50
sorry for the expression which is not worth it01:20:53
not a cent01:20:55
and the same ubis understood this perfectly01:20:57
that's why I didn't even want to take this one for a yard01:20:59
bank with gigantic assets That's all01:21:02
that the daughter bank is now bursting at the seams01:21:06
this is certainly not a silicone bank for you there01:21:09
Portfolio with active under one and a half01:21:11
trillion if the daughter lies down it's 200801:21:15
will show you flowers Well, this is exactly it01:21:17
I don’t know at all, it’s not my job How01:21:20
I wish I could still quadruple Well, really I do01:21:22
I will be glad to any trigger the sooner01:21:23
it will happen so much the better otherwise it will be forever01:21:26
sold one not forever that's all01:21:27
hassle from collapse to collapse living from01:21:30
panic to panic it's impossible This01:21:33
an unstable system that goes into01:21:35
the spread seems to be getting stronger every year01:21:37
there's no point, I just don't see it, it doesn't matter01:21:39
But today is a dark day for these and01:21:43
of course it spread to Europe just01:21:46
America has a little more free hands and01:21:48
opportunities in terms of legislative framework01:21:50
quickly adjust certain moments01:21:51
Europe has much better in this regard01:21:56
it is more difficult to make a decision quickly01:21:59
bailing out the banks Unfortunately, that's why01:22:02
bet Of course more than in Europe01:22:04
something will come under control faster01:22:06
commercial bank Dolce Bank there or for me without01:22:08
the difference is who will fall faster where, well, that’s all01:22:11
this group is there today Let's plant 10-15% there01:22:14
collapses here, but it's like an egg01:22:18
the beginning Well, okay, the American market01:22:22
record number Clear through01:22:24
discount window provided liquidity01:22:27
during the week01:22:29
150 160 almost billion, yes that is01:22:32
volumes are higher than even in the twentieth year01:22:34
banks were taken away because depositors01:22:36
they keep taking money out01:22:39
actually what happened in the eighth year you can see perfectly01:22:42
almost 400 billion were taken away Now 16001:22:46
per week Well, weekly is certainly very01:22:48
that's a lot of money, of course01:22:52
I didn’t update the data anymore, I did it01:22:56
yesterday data updated on Friday01:22:57
the Fed's balance sheet is already01:22:59
8.7 trillion01:23:02
per week Another plus 95 billion01:23:05
they started clearing dollars from01:23:07
marks 901:23:09
We got to 8 what's there and three I01:23:12
Today I saw analytics that two thirds of01:23:15
cleared was again poured into the market01:23:18
95 billion in a week weeks earlier01:23:20
300 billion and another 100 for that plus 40001:23:23
billion need to try which01:23:25
It was just a plus to everything. It’s clear.01:23:28
Department of Mrs. Elen Head of the Ministry of Finance01:23:31
continues the money01:23:32
budget money is budget money Yes01:23:36
also pour into the system into the economy Well,01:23:41
in particular to the insurance agency01:23:42
deposits have poured in another forty billion01:23:45
The Ministry of Finance balance dropped to around 20001:23:47
billions01:23:50
understands that if earlier01:23:53
with expenses we could cope without01:23:55
state ceiling for a long time until August maybe01:23:57
be July maintenance with running costs01:23:59
which come sponsored by01:24:01
budget agency of the country of deposits up to01:24:03
money Money will run out in May01:24:06
The maximum is in June, so the alarm sounds01:24:09
it takes a long time to raise relative to the ceiling and01:24:11
and so on, by the way, they will put forward their01:24:14
main points for a long look01:24:19
Well, in general, okay, I won’t get promoted here01:24:21
I'm just afraid they'll promote me Don't forget01:24:23
The Ministry of Finance will begin to borrow sharply on the market and01:24:25
liquidity will disappear Failure with01:24:26
liquidity will be negative for the market01:24:28
this is negative for the market Don't forget01:24:30
Therefore, for now, in two weeks the attention of the Fed01:24:35
plus 400 Ministry of Finance plus 10001:24:39
plus 500 billion dollars for two01:24:42
it was pumped into the system in two weeks01:24:44
weeks and you think that the markets are not falling01:24:48
Well of course the whale was 100 weeks earlier01:24:51
billions of dollars still pouring in01:24:56
how to fall here but the problem persists01:25:00
It is estimated that 700 billion have already been pulled out01:25:03
depositors from bank deposits01:25:06
there is essentially all this money, as it were, but not01:25:09
Well, they can’t really save the situation now01:25:13
we're talking about the emergency committee now01:25:15
meets to a large extent and what scared01:25:17
after the Fed the main thing01:25:20
Ministry of Finance01:25:23
first hinted that he would give guarantees for01:25:26
all deposits Yes for all deposits01:25:28
actually at this market moment even01:25:30
rejoiced01:25:32
but then after the Fed half an hour after01:25:34
Paula Secretary of the US Treasury01:25:36
says no, we can’t live without the law01:25:42
Yes, we do not have such powers. Therefore01:25:44
we need a bill with congressional approval01:25:46
and we actually have no right to the Senate01:25:49
provide such guarantees for all deposits01:25:52
actually which is not even insured01:25:54
Well, everyone makes it clear that banks01:25:58
save no matter how they will But this01:25:59
investors themselves01:26:01
strengthened therefore the money they gave01:26:06
Well, okay, the weather is bad and actually not01:26:10
do01:26:11
but the market holds the market holds01:26:15
Why is it interesting when the previous one prepared it?01:26:18
issue Here it is in the section on the main page01:26:21
video section01:26:24
interesting too the moment is pure This01:26:28
presentation for mother-in-law as Telegram writes01:26:30
channel01:26:35
global01:26:37
after the crash01:26:42
and the trend in the market is so global01:26:45
the trend in the market began on and lasted 1301:26:48
years until the next crash 87 like this01:26:51
40 percent the market then collapsed but 1301:26:54
48 years have passed since one collapse01:26:57
percent Yes, S&P fell to 7273 1301:27:01
exactly years01:27:03
and everything is just 87 actually the next one01:27:06
collapse and ended with the fact that01:27:08
in the final phase of 3-4 years we also see01:27:12
acceleration01:27:14
in the pre-final year of panic we still see01:27:17
market acceleration is stronger only after01:27:19
this reversal01:27:21
this is 73 to 8701:27:25
after '8701:27:31
long-term powerful trend is also on the market01:27:34
survived for exactly 13 years before collapse01:27:38
2000 is exactly 13 years old01:27:41
despite the fact that in recent years this has been exactly the case01:27:44
same acceleration over the last four five years01:27:47
with blowing a bubble01:27:49
but this system is virtually distorted01:27:51
moving away from the real economy01:27:54
and after 13 years his mother collapsed again01:27:58
s&p -40 nasdaq -7501:28:03
the last powerful crisis we have01:28:05
was 2008 2008 in the yard 2301:28:11
13 years of Tom himself about the trend that we01:28:16
We observe that there were no major crises01:28:19
recessions over the past 13 years are the same01:28:23
the market has been growing for exactly 13 years in recent years01:28:25
years acceleration01:28:28
Well now I don't think we are yet01:28:31
let's go rewrite 5000 there are 6000 and so on01:28:34
further I think that we are already at some kind of finale01:28:36
saw And now we still have to01:28:39
up to 40 percent at least correction from01:28:43
see the maximum01:28:44
after the same 13 years Well, that’s all for01:28:47
this is ripe but now minus 18 snp01:28:50
costs conditionally from the maximum Well, minus 4001:28:55
-50 You should at least see it to get the full picture01:28:59
like such a correction which in01:29:01
basically once the 10th anniversary seems to happen01:29:03
Well, since 15 years, okay, everything is ripe for this01:29:07
that is, this is the main zone where01:29:09
idea everything should stop 2 503 2 50301:29:12
you are still like the border where I will have company01:29:15
many companies are undervalued Well basic01:29:17
zone Here it is support Well this is 2 50301:29:21
essentially where it all happened from here01:29:23
this explosive growth01:29:24
it will be ok all this local01:29:27
global trend As you can see Yes he has01:29:29
also support now Approx.01:29:31
three Well, if you take it for the 23rd year, it fits01:29:34
also at the 3000 mark, one was punctured01:29:37
twentieth on covid but essentially about01:29:40
three rubles here Everything fits01:29:41
will we get here01:29:44
but I'm betting that we'll get there sooner01:29:47
total this year Most likely this01:29:49
year in the summer or closer to autumn more likely01:29:53
in all, the Fed itself will change its shoes to01:29:57
In fact, these are already alarm bells01:29:59
already rang because these01:30:01
snot that have been announced yet01:30:04
banks is exactly that01:30:06
rescue mechanism which was very01:30:08
actively introduced into the world economy01:30:11
practice just in 2008 There until 200801:30:15
years there were literally 43 snot A01:30:18
if you compare it with the picture at twenty01:30:20
second year there are these words lines between01:30:21
central banks around the world01:30:23
it’s just that they are set up and that’s what it is now01:30:26
announced literally too, again on01:30:29
weekend on Monday what will happen01:30:31
snot between central banks as01:30:35
since the European Central Banks and Japan USA01:30:38
this is again a signal call because01:30:41
here is the lack of liquidity and just01:30:44
the ultimate injection of money is01:30:46
discount windows This is not something that can directly01:30:49
save the economy from some kind of correction01:30:51
Therefore, yes, too, Vasily, I’d like to wait too01:30:54
corrections because well, more than once I01:30:57
said that expensive companies Despite01:31:00
that here we are in some kind of01:31:02
consolidation of this perimeter01:31:04
we're haggling, so there are already calls, but no01:31:07
the bells are ringing here, damn it all01:31:10
just once again the illusion of sustainability01:31:13
creates a gigantic excess01:31:16
liquidity that is pumped into the system01:31:18
but she doesn't go where she needs to go, but we01:31:22
we see it and the Fed sees it, it’s funny if you want01:31:25
yes, half a trillion was thrown into01:31:28
system01:31:29
some banks are behind the clusters01:31:31
some people charge through a discount at the window01:31:33
billions of dollars01:31:35
warehousers to sort it out and at the same time for01:31:37
week at 220 5 almost billion01:31:41
dollar reverse repo with the Fed is growing01:31:44
banks01:31:45
only those in need stand in line01:31:48
they take the dough to plug the holes and others01:31:51
swim in money and give it back to the Fed01:31:55
reverse repo 225 billion closed01:31:58
no need to go back01:32:01
once again there will always be beneficiaries not01:32:04
everything is bad with Goldman Morgan and 501:32:07
companies of the 5 largest banks everything is wrong01:32:10
they're only bad at it all01:32:12
earn money but want to earn more01:32:14
more when everything collapses They are the ones for01:32:16
everyone will buy pennies to buy and01:32:19
all clients run to them and so on01:32:20
the market and stocks they have a ton of money01:32:23
they also want everything for cheap assets for01:32:25
cheap prices buy money from them make01:32:28
they are 225 billion back at 05 rate01:32:32
I don't know the return rate01:32:35
Not needed01:32:37
because they already have five Motives with01:32:40
half a trillion why do they need you more01:32:43
give me where to put them They01:32:46
they give it back to you01:32:48
but the system is cracking, they don’t want to01:32:50
even ubies didn’t want to save others01:32:53
buy a shitty yard loan They01:32:57
understand why I need this01:33:00
we will come out with this money when it is01:33:02
everything is completely different, this is it01:33:05
it’s indicative that the system doesn’t even have trust01:33:08
inside the system inside the banking system themselves01:33:11
banks don't even want to help01:33:13
Similarly, the more the bank dies, the01:33:16
better than goldman and GP Morgan01:33:19
Do you want to at least save01:33:21
it's the banking system that needs to clean up01:33:24
because there are these banks but very01:33:25
grow a lot until no rehabilitation and01:33:28
that's all right01:33:30
the norms that were announced there on01:33:33
capital and so on reserve norms01:33:35
something of course the big question is how is it01:33:37
complied with and verified therefore must01:33:40
clean the system and just the most01:33:43
it's hard to wait for it, it's a joke01:33:45
Let's imagine the only thing01:33:47
you can save me here01:33:50
collapse of the US financial sector01:33:52
further collapse is if01:33:58
the government can not head the Ministry of Finance01:34:00
I know about guarantees on Well01:34:03
for all deposits they will give a Guarantee that everything01:34:07
investors for any amount01:34:09
will actually get their money01:34:11
it’s unclear why there’s a bill How so it’s not that01:34:15
you can save But this is kind of what we're talking about01:34:18
this is where the spruce hinted, or at least there01:34:20
within 250 million there up to 25001:34:23
thousand dollars may even be a guarantee01:34:25
not on insured deposits. And there are such people there01:34:27
damn in every bank there01:34:29
60-70 percent if they give such a Guarantor01:34:34
But maybe, but this will be a precedent01:34:38
it will have a side effect they don't have01:34:40
but they don't have strength01:34:44
legislative framework yet Well, I don’t know Well01:34:47
once again this is if it goes beyond the scope already01:34:51
normality well the consequences of this too01:34:53
it will be very bad01:34:56
if the state responds01:35:01
with your money with your money01:35:03
taxpayers01:35:05
for any collapsed bank there will be01:35:07
guarantee the return of deposits in any01:35:09
bank whose deposits were insured01:35:13
can you imagine Then it will begin01:35:15
these are your fantasies01:35:18
this is an erotic mistress who is tossing around01:35:22
every day maybe about the guarantee then01:35:24
no, we misunderstood, we don’t have the opportunity01:35:26
Now the committee is gathering so that it can01:35:29
there might be some possibility01:35:31
Oh, this is all holding the tension for now01:35:34
market but also loot loot again Paul01:35:38
they give a trillion01:35:40
250 will be returned back, no need to have it with us01:35:43
sitting right here01:35:46
therefore the markets do not fall the illusion that01:35:50
supposedly everything is calm and good01:35:53
not good01:35:55
here is a global trend01:35:57
70s Look at this graph01:36:00
it’s just that you’ve been looking there for hours01:36:03
rivers of the day Look at least once at01:36:04
The 50-year chart of the CIS is so big01:36:07
right on the big TV01:36:09
Well, if it falls all the way to here, what is it?01:36:12
fall a lot or something, that's how much01:36:16
Quarter Two before we can easily from here01:36:19
it will be very painful to get there01:36:21
it hurts at 2,800 if we get there Well that's it01:36:24
calmly this year maybe this is what01:36:26
here is the rollback and here is the braking01:36:29
saw well, it’s unlikely there will be a formation here01:36:31
like a growing new trend but I don't01:36:34
I see reasons with an eye to six months for now01:36:36
year so that from this trade we are at 401:36:38
at 4 200 4 500 4 700 Come on, I can't see01:36:41
Therefore, if we trade, we go down01:36:43
Well, it will hurt, well, it will really hurt And01:36:47
this is exactly what this is, this is the axis01:36:49
support is essentially there and where we are essentially01:36:53
within the framework of the global trend should01:36:54
come brought she is clear01:36:56
last two maximum Yes01:36:58
Khayyam pre-crisis actually we him01:37:02
held this year pierced and01:37:04
in the eighteenth year we are almost there01:37:05
turned around so this was the main one01:37:07
global support is not even three rubles01:37:10
at 2.800 But from three rubles I’ll already buy01:37:12
night clear01:37:14
I don't want four here01:37:17
Well we saw 3,500 before the rollback of 4,800 by 301:37:20
500 1300 points saw a rollback saw Well01:37:22
let's just say there's only 900 left01:37:25
points to do this, what's the problem? Well01:37:28
in that year they fell by 1500 to 1300 per01:37:32
year fell by 1300 here 900 points in total01:37:34
there are 1000 walks Well well Well also the Quarter01:37:37
2 and there and that's it And you can do it again there01:37:40
buy for several years as an investor01:37:43
become01:37:44
Yes, here it is, global, looking at this01:37:47
this is all about what's going on and again01:37:50
attention01:37:53
What markets are based on01:37:56
main driver of market growth in recent years01:38:00
a decade is not business growth in01:38:03
company dividend no main buyer01:38:06
on the market for the last 10 already 15 years01:38:10
the companies themselves are the main driver of growth01:38:14
stock market stock market is not equal01:38:15
economics you know this very well This is not01:38:20
equals the economy and if the stock market01:38:22
still not bad if s&p 4000 you01:38:25
you say everything went well in the economy 400001:38:29
historical maximum of phrenaline01:38:32
what's his name a month ago01:38:35
British index they have an economy01:38:36
relative British index01:38:37
rewrote the historical maximum01:38:40
and Germany is one step away from history01:38:42
their banks are pouring out again stock01:38:45
market is not the same as economy01:38:49
you can understand this is the main driver of growth01:38:52
this is this and this is all this01:38:54
the last one here is the last spot how much are you01:38:56
even from the tenth years from here to01:38:59
these are buybacks if you wouldn’t take a bathhouse01:39:03
Bykov we would be right here now01:39:06
Well, maybe here there are 2,500 snp01:39:08
if you remove buybacks01:39:11
last year the American indices were all01:39:15
fell by 20-30 percent in 22 years01:39:18
during the same period, companies sent01:39:21
repurchase of own shares 900 there 30,94001:39:26
three billion dollars can he01:39:30
imagine And this did not hold the markets01:39:34
trillion essentially after Trump's01:39:37
tax maneuvers Yes company Here it is01:39:40
started 700 800 trillion a year this is it01:39:44
main buyer in the market Not01:39:45
the household01:39:47
the corporations themselves01:39:49
households do nothing on the market01:39:52
they are no one their share even after the sight01:39:54
it costs a lot it's all a myth01:39:57
Well actually buybacks01:40:00
They set their record just in 22 and01:40:04
Now buybacks are starting gradually01:40:06
reduce that is the main01:40:10
the driver that holds markets sometimes01:40:13
even due to this, the market is supposedly growing01:40:16
He's leaving01:40:19
because corporate profits01:40:21
money on buyback is slowing down01:40:23
less and if this year we still have it01:40:28
to be agreed upon by September01:40:29
budget plan for 24 year and then what?01:40:33
if you want to pay corporate taxes01:40:35
raise the question how much if by 701:40:36
percent will rise like that Goodbye for now01:40:41
far from the price plus tax on01:40:43
buybacks Although 4 percent lead Goodbye01:40:45
Bai Tales more than trillions a year01:40:49
you will see a maximum of 200,300 billion and01:40:52
what then01:40:53
then we will see where the market should01:40:56
fair to be at all and cost clearly not01:40:59
here it is the main supporting driver01:41:02
market remember01:41:04
940 billion last year alone01:41:06
company01:41:07
compared to cash inflows01:41:10
households01:41:14
here he is leaving and by the way01:41:17
good analytics too Well, if you want to believe it01:41:21
want No, it’s clear what’s going on now01:41:24
let's fix these calculations to believe01:41:26
here is goldman in twenty-three01:41:30
the volume of sales of shares from the outside01:41:32
American households will reach01:41:33
approximately 750 billion according to them01:41:35
According to calculations this is the maximum figure01:41:37
By the way, it will be 2008, that is, the main one01:41:40
understand the market01:41:42
[music]01:41:45
until there is a capitulation of households01:41:48
Now she doesn't even smell the market01:41:50
will always turn around again I'm here01:41:54
half an hour ago this phrase was spoken by the market01:41:56
this is a mechanism for distributing capital from01:41:58
poor rich from poor to rich01:41:59
remember this remember this phrase01:42:03
this is a global distribution mechanism01:42:05
capital01:42:06
as soon as it happens as soon as01:42:09
the majority of households will sell their01:42:13
shares and they will be bought It is clear who from whom01:42:16
there will be money at this moment01:42:19
you know this five very well, I'm talking about01:42:21
I already said it, then it will happen01:42:24
market capitulation if this happens01:42:26
three rubles for 2,500 no difference then01:42:29
it will be01:42:32
the household will give everything for next to nothing01:42:34
to others And after this there will be a reversal01:42:36
market and everything And they will earn money again in a crisis01:42:39
Places banner find who and it will be done01:42:42
This is always done on purpose so that01:42:46
someone got rich again Here's goldent again01:42:48
since he thinks that this year will be the best01:42:51
record since 2008 for tatok01:42:53
the Arctic is now even close No01:42:55
it is growing but it is not close 75001:42:56
billion is a decent amount01:42:58
size therefore bottom do not consider what else01:43:01
clearly to be ahead I don't see panic with01:43:04
side of households on the market for now01:43:06
no one sees that is the household01:43:07
still buys on the contrary to the base01:43:10
drawdowns are when they will be here01:43:13
run away from the market with such eyes, but close01:43:16
and now everyone is still buying01:43:18
drawdowns01:43:20
where are the sheet music?01:43:26
So01:43:28
Nothing good This is sustainability01:43:31
it's veiled, well now something01:43:34
positive things can be said today Well in01:43:35
Monday it will sprout again Well 400 4 20001:43:38
there may be Well anyway I say how01:43:40
We'll hit 3,800 I don't even want to I'm tired of it01:43:42
3,800 problems then the transmission will become01:43:44
more interesting, otherwise it’s the same thing, as if we01:43:47
Let's talk about how much everything is developing01:43:50
wait, friends, now I’m talking about China01:43:52
it will be more lively to tell it there Come on01:43:55
no, interesting again, you understand01:43:58
how they are trying to save and how much money they give01:44:01
and I show you how much money they give01:44:04
trying to save and at the same time not everyone01:44:06
need money01:44:08
they don't help they don't help01:44:15
the market stabilized for a long time, of course everything01:44:19
problems because of him despite the rate01:44:21
the fifth seems to be any way. How did I argue with01:44:25
Natalya Natash hello calculator Aishe01:44:30
if you do the math now it should cost 8501:44:33
Yeah, they're almost worth it01:44:38
watched01:44:41
yield for 10 years is almost 3 rates01:44:45
actually consoles 5 USA anomaly01:44:50
106 82 106 82 10701:44:55
An anomaly but they broke here Yes from the same01:44:59
deposits Yes really for the last two01:45:03
weeks there now I won’t tell you the exact number01:45:06
everything is already confused in my head, but here are the numbers01:45:08
I have watched a record year for the last year01:45:11
weekly influx of money from outside01:45:13
households can be seen taking money out of01:45:16
deposits and the bank thinks who the hell knows01:45:18
they will save they will not save but America defaults01:45:21
It seems like I haven’t announced it in recent years01:45:23
100 is definitely there, so it’s more reliable for me01:45:25
sit here and bet here and01:45:28
possibility of profitability here Probably01:45:31
even for the interests of the deposit, so I went01:45:33
an avalanche of money from the side by the way01:45:35
households from deposits here Well01:45:38
actually part of the gold part of the crypt01:45:40
part in the action said that's why here we are01:45:42
we see some stability01:45:44
but as I explained I'm afraid01:45:47
that the market will shake when the Ministry of Finance comes out01:45:50
in the USA, that is, keep in mind How to increase01:45:53
long here The Ministry of Finance may begin to shake01:45:56
after all, to the market01:45:58
and the stock market will then collapse01:46:01
the increase will also be a steep short, that is01:46:03
Market If they approve the resurrection in01:46:06
Monday will open plus one and a half or two01:46:08
overjoyed that America did not announce01:46:09
default01:46:12
same day shorts01:46:15
and that's all01:46:17
because the Ministry of Finance does not have money with those01:46:19
will add Ah [ __ ] decrease well This01:46:23
will affect fat including01:46:25
Well, okay, I won’t run in now01:46:28
Okay I'll tell you01:46:35
there is a telegram channel with few subscribers01:46:38
listens We've been friends for a long time, I'm interested01:46:41
long term thoughts01:46:45
and I just wrote about Telte in01:46:48
including him, there are long-term schedules01:46:49
builds a timeframe there year quarters like this01:46:52
big 30 40 50 years bigger than the lady here01:46:55
this is a forty-year trend that has been01:46:58
40 years falling it will break but count01:47:01
the breakdown is not false I am also the breakdown is not false01:47:03
but after 40 years it’s unlikely to break through01:47:05
that now it’s like a process of calming down01:47:08
How is the profitability going down?01:47:10
growing up but with an eye to 2-3 years of the model01:47:13
they draw him What01:47:15
Short even three two-year housing01:47:18
Five-year, ten-year plans will all fly away somewhere01:47:20
10 percent on TLT yield but01:47:23
find somewhere around 6501:47:26
What will happen in the world, let's even01:47:29
don't say at all Yes because it's clear01:47:30
with NP it’s like two kopecks there it will be like01:47:33
if that's what we're waiting for, well that's what they show01:47:35
Here are his technical models01:47:38
kind of neighing but what reasons could it be01:47:42
it serve well the loss of control over01:47:44
inflation Well, it could be an option01:47:47
some kind01:47:48
There's an election year ahead and it's already Trump01:47:51
they want to plant maybe some01:47:53
political battles or something else01:47:56
maybe I don’t know what oil is like in the world01:47:57
200 reasons you can come up with the foundation01:48:00
then, as they say, I’ll tighten the fundamental01:48:01
As Dimura says, then he comes up with how01:48:03
it will be called01:48:04
Who is guilty01:48:07
crisis or01:48:10
well, what will they call it, who will be to blame01:48:15
then he comes up with the fundamental Well models01:48:17
There are models, I don’t exclude them. Therefore, yes01:48:20
now everything is beautiful yield 33401:48:24
Okay it all grows back but01:48:28
with an eye to 2 years I would bet here01:48:30
probably also didn’t sit, that is, for some reason01:48:33
time Here they are, there are goals, but now it’s not me01:48:36
I can not01:48:37
too fed01:48:41
There is too little in the Federal Reserve right now01:48:43
room for maneuver or again01:48:45
I say save the system either01:48:47
more serious inflation acceleration I don't01:48:50
I know what they will choose, I don’t know what time it will be01:48:53
this year they still have I would put them together01:48:55
this year everything was shaky and at the end of the year it was already01:48:58
would launch new coupes for the elections01:49:01
November next year, that's what I think01:49:03
the most logical because with the election01:49:06
year01:49:07
create stress in the market Well, they don’t01:49:09
beneficial to democrats Why the chosen year01:49:12
everyone wants to show that it's good01:49:14
create their lowest base the most01:49:16
the shitty situation in the economy in this01:49:17
year so that then a whole year in total01:49:20
actually grew just in time for the elections01:49:21
everything is logical Well, I don’t know how they will be01:49:24
it's okay to pay, well, for everyone01:49:26
of course currencies01:49:28
ny market01:49:29
and everything is there or not everything01:49:34
our dollar has turned around Well, of course, yet01:49:37
time when everything is pumped into the system when01:49:39
everything is bursting at the seams, everyone needs it at once01:49:40
dollar01:49:41
bets on the dollar soar dollar rise in price01:49:44
it's missing Well, when the Fed comes out and01:49:47
opens accumulation to all banks dollar01:49:49
you can safely short or buy euros01:49:51
because the whole system was pumping01:49:54
really, besides the fact that the Fed and the Ministry of Finance01:49:56
pump up Well actually stop lines01:49:57
creates even more liquidity01:49:59
excess liquidity Precisely dollar01:50:01
therefore the rates are in dollars accordingly01:50:03
are declining Well, this has led to01:50:05
one such sharp reversal after01:50:07
opening stop lines here01:50:09
also opened the clutch then everyone01:50:12
the clusters were closed Well actually01:50:14
dollars and turned around well01:50:17
I don’t know No for now The table is in any01:50:20
case, the situation in Europe is much more01:50:21
creepy much more creepy if01:50:24
the banking crisis will not be contained precisely in01:50:26
Europe01:50:28
you know everything perfectly01:50:31
so this is all a temporary rollback01:50:34
We're keeping nothing here for now01:50:35
there is no supernatural01:50:38
this is a week two schedules left and then01:50:42
three Vasya I'm ready to wait for you I'm already01:50:46
trained come on01:50:48
life I'm going nowhere01:50:51
just so relaxed01:50:55
this is the week of central bankers week01:50:58
all over the world Yes, in addition to the generous reserve for the bet01:51:00
at 0 25 placed the bet at 0 25 and01:51:04
European Central Bank Well, with them01:51:06
they need to further increase inflation01:51:09
increase and the system is already cracking And inflation01:51:11
grows and grows and01:51:15
Here is also a vicious circle How to overcome01:51:18
inflation they raise rates to01:51:20
reduce inflation and at the same time this01:51:23
well it01:51:24
normal situation Yes, the trade unions are on strike01:51:28
in Italy in Germany in France01:51:31
and they will get more and more of it01:51:34
it's normal to demand a salary increase01:51:36
fees index this inflation pay01:51:39
twice as much credit you already have money01:51:41
I don't have enough tomatoes to buy already of course01:51:43
By the way, they are not there yet01:51:45
Give money pay more money But if01:51:47
employers will encourage trade unions and01:51:50
it will raise wages01:51:52
you can further accelerate inflation01:51:55
understand how to explain this by the trade union01:51:57
that we are living in bad times now01:52:01
when the regulator fights inflation we01:52:03
We can’t pay you all now01:52:05
increase because it will affect01:52:08
accelerating inflation further is logical01:52:11
Vicious circle government hold on01:52:18
Well, of course it was a surprise01:52:21
we have Great Britain from which also01:52:23
everyone has basically gone crazy in Europe almost01:52:28
double-digit inflation has started again01:52:30
accelerated according to the results of February 10.4 went01:52:34
to accelerate It would seem like everything01:52:36
thought they had already defeated the Bank of Britain01:52:38
I also raised the rate by 0.25 I think Yes01:52:41
05 I think I just raised the bank01:52:44
Switzerland 05 raised everyone else's01:52:47
0 25 raised but that's not enough01:52:50
not enough to fight by the way01:52:52
a large contribution to prices in accelerating inflation01:52:54
food prices are crazy there01:52:58
acceleration There's a kick-ass there and without expressing it01:53:01
and logistics and so on I wasn't joking01:53:05
tomatoes for 300 euros no joke there01:53:07
comments were assigned, well now01:53:09
considering I say01:53:11
supply problems given the closure01:53:15
base plant that produces the component01:53:18
For01:53:20
component for01:53:22
fertilizers01:53:27
and the largest producers remain01:53:29
Russia Belarus is still here in Ukraine01:53:32
Yes, there will be a problem with approval01:53:34
they will become even more expensive01:53:37
sowing season, that is, prices are covered01:53:40
in the fall they will still be even more expensive plus01:53:43
count on the fact that gas prices01:53:45
now which 500 will soar to one and a half01:53:48
two thousand at least When you start01:53:50
don't buy now, that's why01:53:53
prices don't rise, start buying prices01:53:54
everything will start to grow here just the market01:53:56
so don't just take it now No01:53:59
buyers That's all last year they are01:54:02
pipeline gas, two thirds were able to A01:54:04
no northerly flows this year No01:54:07
Sorry01:54:08
and the capacity of LNG terminals will not be enough01:54:11
to buy for future use Terminals are not01:54:14
ready They will be in two years01:54:15
built like this Therefore it will be very01:54:18
difficult situation and secondary overclocking01:54:21
inflation is closer to autumn What if chips01:54:23
union to meet their needs01:54:25
raise wages Well, as it were01:54:28
the fight is so hard01:54:30
and regulators are forced to increase the rate AND01:54:32
By the way, similar insanity which is here01:54:34
by the way, no one can really explain01:54:37
Maybe I don’t really have an explanation either01:54:39
Fed Maybe you can explain it with one01:54:44
hand tighten monetary credit01:54:47
policy to raise rates on the other01:54:49
hand printing money softens01:54:54
how is this what kind of [ __ ] experiment are you01:54:57
do it as logically as possible01:55:00
called mismanagement01:55:03
vehicle at the same time01:55:05
you live01:55:08
Just01:55:10
this is how it is01:55:14
same thing, just01:55:16
I'm not saying the indexes came out today01:55:38
everything there01:55:41
Well, that’s understandable. I’m not saying that again in01:55:44
Everything is fine in Russia By the way, they are fine01:55:46
not good development prospects for growth01:55:49
economy of the Russian Federation in this01:55:51
year and how do you like it, I’m not on 010201:55:56
the episode recorded 230 thousand views there01:55:58
I had so much hate in general01:56:01
nothing Let's end the year I'll bet01:56:05
Of course I don’t know what will happen next but01:56:06
so far the trajectory is not bad01:56:09
the economy will be positive this year01:56:11
We'll see01:56:14
okay, in general, let them keep raising it01:56:19
bet until it cracks elsewhere01:56:21
all the inflation there has not been this for a long time. Well,01:56:24
Of course, the numbers are pleasing. Just01:56:26
it makes me happy it makes me happy because well01:56:29
it was all supposed to be mutual if01:56:34
They are torpedoing our economy Really?01:56:36
it won’t come back to haunt them, yes, I say, well, to us01:56:40
did it come back to haunt you, didn’t it come back to haunt you or something?01:56:43
less to complain about, are you stable?01:56:44
Eurozone you traded balance on average01:56:47
15 to 20 cities there on average per month01:56:50
earned what now01:56:53
first up to -50 billion per month01:56:56
slipped Well there was some kind of recovery01:56:57
up to -10 now the numbers came out late01:57:01
We calculated the numbers for January, it’s already January01:57:04
minus 30 billion01:57:07
who will make it worse for us? Yes, I don’t see that01:57:11
Well, if you compare the blows by comparison01:57:15
economies01:57:17
I don't see our economies getting any worse01:57:20
than Well, the allotted sanctions, that is, we01:57:22
suffered and you suffered if taken from01:57:24
Europe and Russia hit us with such a blow01:57:28
there is no powerful one. How did you do it for yourself?01:57:33
kill01:57:34
we have production activity01:57:36
Business activity in the service sector01:57:39
industry unfolds GDP01:57:40
unfolds from below01:57:43
you have something all bent while the banks01:57:46
starts to go we have banks one two01:57:48
maybe a trillion and a half will earn in01:57:50
this year is almost up to the sanctions record01:57:53
there were two then, I'll be surprised if there are01:57:55
Certainly01:57:59
What have you achieved?01:58:02
Find Chinese with Chinese more01:58:04
swear okay wait, it's package 1101:58:08
sanctions they just said that01:58:10
will be aimed precisely at01:58:12
make circumvention of these sanctions impossible01:58:16
That's why01:58:17
there is Okay here goes we just we01:58:21
you were just told that trade from01:58:22
package to package because that's all01:58:25
what is risky is what it is, including here01:58:27
you are an investment field but maybe01:58:30
implemented in the next package itself01:58:32
I wonder what will make them even more angry01:58:34
more when if you know at the end of the year01:58:36
not to see Yes, the growth of the Russian economy01:58:39
after 11 packages and 1600 sanctions 160001:58:43
sanctions and that the economy has reached01:58:47
damn it's going to make them angry01:58:49
even stronger01:58:51
of course it's good, ok, it's just01:58:53
damn this is economics this is politics01:58:55
Why should there be emotions of anger here?01:58:58
the joys here are just looking at the dry ones01:58:59
numbers on how your people are in yours01:59:02
country live How politicians should look at01:59:04
eyes then to the people, people to the people already01:59:07
explained Ursunderland needs to unite01:59:10
we must be patient for them to feel bad01:59:13
so they can't01:59:15
continue its policy to01:59:17
they earned money to make it bad01:59:19
so that their policy changes but it passes01:59:22
a year and a half and it turns out that the policy is not01:59:25
changed, still the same action, same01:59:27
which were happening and the economy01:59:29
adapted, growing and we're in [ __ ]01:59:33
Of course I won’t say it again now01:59:36
many times in different countries I know everything01:59:39
about Europe, the numbers show you how01:59:42
what pensions are there in Russia?01:59:45
In Europe, this is the comparison01:59:48
can you imagine you are comparing again01:59:51
You01:59:53
like a schoolboy who leads me to01:59:56
example black and salty compare you01:59:59
Compare the economy of a developed country02:00:00
developing02:00:02
what are you comparing a developed country with02:00:05
developing Let's compare02:00:07
developing with developing Which02:00:09
pensions average pension in China What02:00:12
average pension in India Let's go with you02:00:14
Trosyu developing country with02:00:16
developing economies Give us income02:00:18
per capita compare in Russia and02:00:21
in China in India what with Europe Compare02:00:24
this is not reasonable this is not normal02:00:28
they all have big pensions and will lose their children02:00:31
who cares, there is no such thing in China02:00:33
pension system Like in Russia02:00:36
in some provinces together you02:00:38
awesome earnings if anything And with us02:00:40
there is a guaranteed pension from02:00:42
states02:00:44
and there are more than 100 million people02:00:46
live below our pensions in China and India02:00:50
number of billionaires in India02:00:52
first place will be out soon02:00:54
Indian economy in India02:00:57
economy that year what happened to it02:01:01
the most amazing growth ever02:01:04
it probably happened the best02:01:06
the Indian stock market that year was all02:01:08
the world is falling and there is growth, that people live there02:01:10
they became better no they didn’t live especially well02:01:13
of course oligarchs earn money There and so02:01:16
further Everything is the same as everywhere as everywhere02:01:19
people from this I just when here02:01:22
I also say you expect growth there02:01:24
of the Russian economy this year This is not02:01:27
means that we will live better02:01:29
it will be better for the one who does something for this02:01:31
does and period02:01:33
if the state starts more02:01:35
earning money does not mean that you02:01:36
start earning more Why do you02:01:38
took that it's equal02:01:41
I'm just, well, now it's just emotions because02:01:43
that I'm tired of reading some stupid ones02:01:46
sorry for comments like this02:01:48
primitive stupid02:01:51
economic growth does not mean growth02:01:55
Welfare02:01:56
You can understand it02:01:59
and examples Let's carry out the correct02:02:01
When they show you the numbers of who is how much02:02:03
who loses and how much he earns02:02:07
Who has what going on02:02:08
in economics these are numbers and facts02:02:12
and you give me pensions there? Compare in Spain and in02:02:16
Moscow or Russia or average salary02:02:19
and the average salary does not need to be compared by02:02:22
There are some Russians there, sometimes 15 thousand02:02:24
believes there are no such numbers02:02:26
average salary where it is there in02:02:29
envelopes an additional three times02:02:31
gets more How much is left China02:02:35
just crossed over asking for China. What do you want?02:02:39
they ask Vasya Where to buy Chinese02:02:41
China issues02:02:44
[laughter]02:02:49
By the way, reversal attempts this week02:02:51
here we are02:02:55
and the Chinese and the tea shop didn't have it02:02:57
us Well yes this is a Chinese quest which02:03:00
IT companies Well, the top 50 companies Well, here you go02:03:04
trying to turn around but friends I would like to02:03:06
Once again, growth goals are basically there02:03:08
indexes Yes, if you take tea Well 5002:03:12
largest companies if you take and02:03:14
tea Internet TF Yes, that's what's here with02:03:17
31 to 40 to That's plus 30 percent02:03:21
approximately and02:03:22
the largest from the company also has 5002:03:25
percent there are reinforced concrete levels02:03:28
support which is unlikely this year and02:03:30
in the next I don’t know how it will be in the next02:03:32
We are unlikely to carry this out. Therefore02:03:33
if you suddenly approach these marks02:03:34
but I was selling everything Chinese now02:03:37
Of course keep it Of course it makes sense But how02:03:39
China is like a safe haven02:03:41
looks so far if it’s in Taiwan there02:03:45
nothing will start but potential02:03:47
growth here is up to 30 percent according to indices02:03:48
that is, that is, by company by some02:03:50
maybe even more, so heads02:03:53
Yeah What should people buy Vasya Sit down in02:03:56
our heavenly Winnie the Pooh02:03:58
sponsor02:04:00
you've already talked enough02:04:03
my turn02:04:07
So friends, let's start with the issuer company02:04:10
Lenovo I remember I did an analysis of everyone02:04:13
let's say such electronic commercial02:04:15
companies that are represented on02:04:17
St. Petersburg Lenovo Exchange this week On02:04:20
my surprise just at some point02:04:21
began to strike ten percent there02:04:23
growth looked in the news to see what was there02:04:26
happened It turns out this is not reporting02:04:28
this is just an announcement of what will be released02:04:31
line of computers where02:04:33
artificial intelligence will itself02:04:34
understand what you need to do, relatively speaking02:04:38
cool down the processor And of course on02:04:41
this news, stocks soared if02:04:44
you02:04:46
no Lenovo then I probably don’t right now02:04:50
I say it’s worth jumping here because02:04:52
that in general, in my opinion, this is it02:04:54
if we look at02:04:56
analogies with Xiaomi are observed here02:04:59
some slowdown in demand report in principle02:05:02
at the end of the year it seems to be looking good02:05:06
that is, there is revenue from02:05:08
companies on02:05:10
at the end of the year 14 7 percent less02:05:13
net profit fell by 50 percent at02:05:16
It's very interesting that the first three02:05:18
Company A seems to have good quarters02:05:20
for the fourth quarter for the fourth02:05:22
the block has already clearly passed02:05:24
slowdown therefore it is possible that02:05:27
Lenovo may not live up to expectations02:05:31
investors because it is also still02:05:33
last week we released data on02:05:34
Retail sales in China specifically by retail02:05:37
sales in China seemed to be positive there02:05:39
three and a half percent Yes, however if02:05:43
straight into e-commerce02:05:46
we have minus minus Minus 8.2 Yes, although three02:05:50
and a half percent year-on-year for January02:05:52
February was shown that's why it's here02:05:54
This is of course very interesting02:05:56
I’m not in Lenovo right now02:05:59
I take profit I see yours here02:06:01
tips Vasya at mark 9 but again02:06:04
This is a dividend story itself02:06:07
The equipment we have here is very good02:06:10
There is a wide geography there02:06:12
fundamentally look at the order there and02:06:14
Europe and Asia-Pacific countries and America and order02:06:18
80 percent are our corporate02:06:21
clients, that is, except for you, we are all ours02:06:23
Tinkov's office day inserted by computers02:06:26
Lenovo that's why it's a lot for me02:06:28
interesting Xiaomi report already said yes02:06:31
which seems to look good however02:06:36
rushes slowdown in demand therefore for02:06:40
I wasn't particularly interested in Xiaomi02:06:42
then and now, too, looking at02:06:45
foundation is strange depending on how02:06:47
sales have been developing for twenty years02:06:50
third year too, I don’t see here yet02:06:52
interesting ideas for yourself here is the Geely report02:06:55
I found it interesting Yes, I’ll remind you too02:06:58
you friends that several issues ago02:07:00
I think it was back in October when I did an analysis02:07:02
Chinese electric car market02:07:05
because on the Russian site you can02:07:09
buy these companies himself02:07:11
lived it Many people know that as usual02:07:15
cars but friends this year here02:07:18
same story I always prepare for02:07:22
release I go to the company website I go02:07:24
I see a press release on the Geely website02:07:27
in English one page I think02:07:29
just one page you need to look at02:07:31
you should watch the presentation there02:07:33
numbers I go to download what is there 9902:07:37
pages but they are all on this02:07:39
hieroglyphs and here and where and how to understand02:07:42
because your data analytics service02:07:45
who buy from American sites there02:07:46
I haven’t loaded this data yet to02:07:48
look in retrospect So for now02:07:51
just from the press release data02:07:53
the company is betting on electric cars in02:07:57
including 300 percent based on the results of 2202:08:00
sales were simply increased over the years02:08:03
exactly in this segment how they are02:08:05
Cars are called energy plus again02:08:09
launched satellite plans for 23 years02:08:12
72 satellites to launch for the system02:08:15
self driving How so02:08:17
called Vasilisa You know me02:08:19
correct them to improve them in principle02:08:22
According to reports, revenue increased by 4502:08:25
percent and the profit is like this02:08:27
modest 8.5 percent but in principle02:08:29
not bad really not bad And here it is02:08:31
investor lived for me curious02:08:34
composition Besides the market itself02:08:37
electric cars seems interesting to me too02:08:39
there was rapid growth friends in the period of 22 years02:08:45
yes, that is, it is important to celebrate 21 years02:08:48
there was also rapid growth, everyone was talking about02:08:50
Tesla and this is exactly the sales of electric cars in02:08:52
China Yes, also what is important to understand is02:08:58
also a Chinese mitten Therefore, if from02:09:01
St. Petersburg Exchange you are watching us Listen02:09:03
please add this too02:09:04
company to our site because02:09:06
they also bargain well. In principle, here it is02:09:09
exactly Bio ID02:09:11
one of the top sellers on exactly this02:09:14
market segment there is, of course,02:09:17
Tesla Yes, is this the Lixiang car we have?02:09:20
this one is also traded on ours02:09:22
site02:09:23
it seems that everything, that is, Geely will only02:09:26
there are only a few models to launch there. This02:09:29
definitely not yet breaking into the top 20 overall02:09:31
segment for the Chinese market02:09:34
these are the brands to buy now02:09:36
will cooperate with Russia because02:09:40
well, yes, it’s just the Russian market02:09:43
you know perfectly well remember how well who02:09:44
remembers many do not remember how Ford in its02:09:47
time I went out here and built factories02:09:49
I remember the years when I was in Rolf02:09:53
they came and there was a queue for Fort for a month02:09:56
4 ahead, that is, they simply sold02:09:59
contract to buy a car you're in line02:10:01
recorded 4 months there was almost a queue02:10:04
prepayment02:10:06
the Russian market will be healthy well02:10:09
just Chinese It’s clear to us now02:10:10
many machines even through parallel02:10:12
imports will probably not arrive soon02:10:14
that's why Koreans are Chinese02:10:16
there will be and these are again names that even02:10:20
we can buy cars now02:10:24
neodymium lived then look02:10:29
Expert02:10:30
comparison of car manufacturers here02:10:33
the data connected is not entirely up to date02:10:35
because again these are the services02:10:37
analysts growth rate horizontal mine02:10:40
the axis is according to the latest reporting data then02:10:43
there is not for not for 22 years therefore here02:10:46
forgive me too, what can I do to you now02:10:49
show then show but again yes02:10:51
Please note that this issuer02:10:53
lived by the growth rate he looks very02:10:57
Confident and affordable02:11:00
price to earnings share is very02:11:03
fair marks and dynamics02:11:05
quotes that were on the slide You too02:11:07
you see that’s why it seemed clear to me02:11:10
curious plus I said that the issuer02:11:14
Expert Nile too Looks good too02:11:17
about02:11:19
factories Yes, I decided to go a little with02:11:23
other end of this analysis of this02:11:26
directions are for development02:11:28
electricity because basically02:11:30
let's say there is one too02:11:32
the relationship that the more there is02:11:35
electricity there in the region you02:11:37
you spend accordingly the more02:11:39
your capacities your factories on this02:11:41
territories work here too02:11:43
there aren't any here yet either02:11:45
encouraging numbers Yes, friends, that is us02:11:48
we see that in January-February 22 years02:11:51
then level 222 is a closed economy02:11:54
Here we have Covid, it seems like everything has been opened02:11:56
all the investment houses say that everything is great02:11:59
China is open, everything will fly into space again02:12:02
However, this does not happen and even now02:12:05
stimulation Yes, that's what we're talking about02:12:07
the Chinese economy these are all incentives02:12:10
also not from a good life in my opinion02:12:12
because why would you restart02:12:14
economy introduce this soft vct if02:12:17
you inside if you inside yourself02:12:20
the economy needs stimulus02:12:21
additional big question but still02:12:24
less Yes Now something like that02:12:26
I don't have a productivity spike02:12:28
I observe that there is a growth rate there02:12:30
literally zero seven and marks in levels02:12:34
closed economy open economy Well02:12:37
everyone probably expected to see others02:12:40
I will correct the numbers to Chinese02:12:43
new year that we always have everything here02:12:46
very active but still every year02:12:48
chinese new year so here you need02:12:51
understand that the pace of production is not the same02:12:56
probably wanted to see it here But this is with02:12:58
there may also be another side, after all02:13:01
we are back to Chinese again02:13:03
electric cars I said yes, it’s ’2202:13:07
For some reason the blue bars are in the analytics02:13:11
all together Posted by month But02:13:13
painted each year with your own color and you02:13:17
see Yes, what exactly is blue color?02:13:19
columns with the most active sales02:13:22
electric cars in China That is all02:13:25
understand and this one is also a bet, yes about02:13:28
gas about cleansing the economy that we02:13:30
they spoke from here and everyone inside China02:13:33
the population understands that they need to go to02:13:35
green energy needs to go here02:13:38
something more environmentally friendly Because02:13:40
so let's say so in such an Industrial02:13:43
the country should not deal with the environment02:13:46
you'll just feel bad, you'll just, well02:13:48
the population will leave these regions02:13:51
so here are the conclusions02:13:53
I want to do all the data here02:13:56
January '23 and it's clear that it's here for now02:13:59
sales rates They are of course lagging behind but02:14:03
this is a very high base of 22 years plus02:14:06
again here it is02:14:08
Geopolitics, this is confusion and risks02:14:11
global recession of course for this02:14:13
the segment also puts pressure. Therefore, some if02:14:15
you come here then come again02:14:17
here with an investor's eye02:14:19
with the understanding that yes it is possible02:14:22
there will be some more braking02:14:25
sales02:14:26
However, again, a global perspective02:14:29
electric cars are on their face because02:14:32
here are two 2017 just02:14:36
probably just started to arrive02:14:39
some talk about what could happen02:14:40
there will be electric cars and some hybrids02:14:42
appear and this is the number of pieces in02:14:46
cars sold individually02:14:48
22 years old, also an analyst, curious about that02:14:51
every seventh there every eighth02:14:53
the car is already that's it02:14:54
electric car or hybrid, so here02:14:56
there is also potential not only in02:14:58
within the region China Russia but also02:15:01
globally, of course, we also have02:15:03
there is a demand Therefore, to summarize, yes02:15:07
Firstly please add02:15:10
issuer to us so that we can work with02:15:13
leader in sales of electric cars and02:15:16
basically now you appear too02:15:17
elements in the same matter where possible02:15:21
find interesting investment ideas but not02:15:24
forget about the risks I'm only talking about02:15:26
what friends mentioned02:15:28
I remember I remember that I also got Geely02:15:30
I got it, I got it, then I grew and I02:15:34
closed with this Jilly Well Jilly games with02:15:37
taking into account the fact that in Russia there may be demand02:15:40
a new market will arise for them Well02:15:42
not new them more well interesting More02:15:45
the demand is not there yet but02:15:47
interesting So ok a lot of time has passed02:15:50
Vasya, I went for a run very quickly02:15:56
a few questions when to drain02:16:00
cash dollar in Russia at least up to02:16:03
keep it summer and then we'll see everything here02:16:05
the most interesting thing will be closer to summer02:16:07
That's why02:16:08
you need to keep cash again friends02:16:11
Can I say a few words if you need02:16:14
traveling on a personal basis and you don’t have02:16:16
no foreign cards there02:16:18
opportunities to pay there via crypto02:16:21
people need cash for their purchases02:16:24
dollars because no matter what they speak02:16:27
Personal dollar is still02:16:28
universal means of payment Therefore02:16:30
if you have these funds of yours02:16:33
infrastructure is underdeveloped or02:16:36
needs improvement keep at least02:16:38
for travel so that they will come to borrow on02:16:41
market Well, what will it do? What will happen to02:16:44
market to which the seller will come Ministry of Finance02:16:47
instead of buying there, it’s the other way around02:16:50
place sell to borrow02:16:53
money02:16:54
well, when a big one comes to the market02:16:56
seller what is happening to the market now02:16:58
it's too late to buy you I wouldn't02:17:00
became right now did not become closer to02:17:02
100 there was still an understanding that there was either a collapse02:17:05
everything Or you need to keep it but now under02:17:07
calmed down the profitability beat now did not02:17:10
why would China pour in money Question02:17:14
a good one has been tormenting me for a long time02:17:17
that all these injections lead to02:17:20
growth of excess liquidity of Chinese02:17:22
financial system This is the second02:17:23
A paradox that torments me02:17:26
giant infusions so that such a feeling02:17:28
keep afloat somehow at the current pace02:17:31
growth02:17:32
and further more significant growth02:17:35
in general, it’s as if they don’t belong here02:17:37
it smells and you can't see it02:17:39
and it's strange that02:17:42
the rate is constantly being reduced money constantly02:17:45
they pour in nothing at a pace but acceleration02:17:48
economic growth doesn’t even smell and02:17:50
the effectiveness of spending this money is02:17:52
of course very bad for the economy and02:17:55
Big side effect This is it02:17:57
it's scary, I mean, you have to agree02:18:02
maintain such growth rates for such02:18:04
economy of this size is very02:18:06
it's hard so I'm more Chinese somehow02:18:08
It will slow down a little, but that's it02:18:11
now in the world there will be demand in China you02:18:15
Do you understand China exports its goods02:18:16
all over the world and to America and to Europe and to02:18:19
Russia, but if the demand is everywhere according to those or02:18:22
falls for other reasons yes02:18:24
then what about the Chinese economy?02:18:27
it is export-oriented02:18:29
will also suffer from this Again02:18:31
these secondary risks of sanctions I think that02:18:33
this is also not a particularly pleasant story plus02:18:36
of course pressure from Washington02:18:38
then this is prohibited then this then this is why02:18:40
for many companies they set some02:18:43
you know a spoke in the wheel so to speak for02:18:46
manufacturers there phone or02:18:48
manufacturers of something else there02:18:49
computers laptop02:18:51
[music]02:18:53
there are risks everywhere now, so yes02:18:56
risks here are electric cars The only thing02:19:00
good because02:19:01
the Chinese market is damn there on its own02:19:03
billion 200 population yes that is there02:19:07
Can I have some more02:19:09
increase revenue several times02:19:12
say there is someone to sell that's why02:19:15
that to compete in foreign markets02:19:17
Chinese Cars are not yet a fact that they will be02:19:20
Let's see in America I don't know02:19:23
Listen, in fact, are there even cars there?02:19:26
on the news what Tesla will do02:19:28
the discount on their models collapsed because02:19:31
that everyone understands that it’s simple02:19:33
consumer Even if he is Chinese he is not02:19:36
will go buy his own, so to speak02:19:38
car caron make a choice in favor of Tesla I02:19:41
I have something cool for me Well, what’s my opinion02:19:44
regarding agreed, voiced this opinion02:19:48
just to this, here I am with him just02:19:49
I agree, I said it here last year02:19:51
I absolutely agree that02:19:53
cost of electric cars in 5-7 years02:19:56
minutes should be two times three times four02:19:59
fell02:20:00
about like this right now02:20:02
it's hype, it's boom, and that's how it is in the era02:20:06
the origins of essentially the Internet of telephony02:20:09
how much did the phone cost there? how much did it cost?02:20:11
how much did one minute cost?02:20:13
conversations there, remember one SMS02:20:16
Now it's all over the world for free02:20:19
contracts give the phone for free02:20:21
contract you take the phone itself02:20:24
it costs a penny before it used to be02:20:25
luxury is the same here that is02:20:27
the cost of assembly is now for now02:20:30
batteries will become cheaper more02:20:32
capacious, more long-term, that is02:20:36
technology is not worth it's technological02:20:37
the process should make that electric cars and02:20:40
plus This is the most competitive market02:20:43
competition is the coolest thing02:20:46
start dumping for conquest02:20:48
the market is very cool it sucks when we02:20:50
The monopoly there stopped their prices02:20:52
they artificially increase it sucks here02:20:55
crazy competition from all over the world02:20:57
therefore the price A priori should be according to02:21:00
saturation fall fall fall as02:21:02
technology development So I would have it02:21:04
realistically in 5 years with pleasure02:21:06
there was a good car there, I don’t know, it was 2002:21:09
thousand dollars Why not buy02:21:11
that's all02:21:13
for 40 thousand for 50 what the hell do I need02:21:17
script crap What's wrong with yours02:21:23
crypto crap while something has grown in the thread02:21:27
don't go there yet with hitting quan Base02:21:30
I don’t want to overload the airwaves right now02:21:31
crypto in the moment We see what goes into it02:21:35
cross-flow02:21:37
funds Yes who are fleeing from02:21:40
US regional banks02:21:43
anyway the price is the fact that it will be02:21:47
easing monetary policy is02:21:50
too and nasdaq too by the way that's what02:21:52
What was upsetting about Paul’s statements was that02:21:55
this year02:21:58
one hundred percent one hundred percent market02:22:02
requested a rate reduction in June02:22:04
market02:22:07
this year is not even planned02:22:11
I saw02:22:13
This is what it already is02:22:16
the formation of distrust in the regulator then02:22:20
there is how much you are lying to him, that is02:22:24
I'm one hundred percent sure again02:22:27
I don’t say everything, just when it’s like this02:22:30
This is an expectation, well I also agree as02:22:32
you would have to change your shoes yourself02:22:34
this year not in June but there in July without02:22:36
the difference is a breach of trust when02:22:40
You want Japan What to say Vasya what’s wrong02:22:42
Japan Maxim asks you Yes nothing02:22:45
Well, we are friends when something happens somewhere02:22:47
happens immediately with things if02:22:49
radically something I didn't happen for02:22:51
a week in one country or another, but somehow02:22:53
why go ten times and in Japanese02:22:56
We don’t buy shares Japan Well, how it was02:22:58
for me, bankrupt number one is essentially02:23:00
And so it remains02:23:02
no big deal now as long as focus02:23:05
attention of the whole world is a chain reaction with02:23:07
US regional banks there are more02:23:09
others and, accordingly, to the bank account02:23:11
the sector is already in the eurozone and there it will be settled02:23:13
will be much harder harder therefore02:23:15
Let's follow this epic as we go02:23:18
raising rates And they need to be raised How02:23:20
you understand further all over the world to crack02:23:22
you will be stronger stronger everywhere and everywhere everything02:23:24
more Everything is simple so enjoy02:23:26
process of destruction of different chains02:23:30
economics of different moments so Nikita02:23:34
Kuznetsova asks what will happen to M.Video02:23:36
and dividends friends from the last02:23:39
reporting data that I saw about m-video02:23:41
Nikita Tam02:23:42
just a weak report even from MTS02:23:46
report on the results of 22 years, namely the segment02:23:49
phone retail has dropped to its maximum02:23:51
this is just a small piece in02:23:53
the structure of the entire revenue of group A for video02:23:56
this is the main business so naturally02:23:57
if the company is bad from performa little02:24:00
got a cool word02:24:04
Of course she won't share any of it02:24:06
profits with their shareholders so I02:24:08
I don’t expect any Divi videos in principle02:24:11
me as an investor Well, I wasn’t02:24:13
never Invest ideas by the way gap shares02:24:17
fall back to those lower levels Yes, that's it02:24:21
where I picked them up, they all had a good ride02:24:24
now We'll wait until then02:24:27
maybe they've already reached the bottom02:24:30
weak report overall but later02:24:33
I will definitely pick it up for distribution again02:24:36
I love the company, I believe it, I advertise it02:24:39
and it doesn’t matter after the crisis or after02:24:42
crisis after recession02:24:45
constantly questions02:24:47
[music]02:24:49
what if you sit and sit others02:24:52
there are no options to buy more no I wouldn’t02:24:55
began to eliminate the position Well, I wouldn’t have done it without02:24:58
no matter what it is, you are not me02:25:00
closed all assets in general, all shares like me02:25:02
said02:25:03
Jilan and Iz Perevon I had with02:25:08
last purchase I closed them in the red02:25:10
50 percent each, but luckily I'm in January02:25:14
sat in them decently but in front02:25:17
[music]02:25:19
with this, like a vacation, I closed everything and then02:25:22
became a position of only three or four less02:25:24
even two and a half percent of these02:25:26
I lost two papers on these transactions02:25:30
percent of the portfolio that's decent02:25:33
quite a lot, it’s a shame, but for everything02:25:36
time Giovanni brought equal more02:25:39
much more here you are probably translated02:25:41
my whole story for the last five years02:25:44
minus Jivan I came in twice and caught it02:25:47
rocket first approval after in different02:25:50
these years are also wonderful even in the show02:25:53
remember that's why the story with the living02:25:55
ended in the end plus minus02:25:59
lost for me 2 percent of the portfolio02:26:00
lose02:26:01
it’s pretty good that it’s like this but also02:26:06
By the way, it reminds me of ideas like02:26:07
recommendations on which people lost02:26:10
friends Well lost lost listen Well02:26:13
OK02:26:16
I had 80 percent in my body02:26:18
loaded twice took 9 percent02:26:20
on 80 percent of the portfolio how much02:26:22
growth02:26:24
Well, count, well, plus it’s almost there 13 1402:26:27
I earned just two percent02:26:28
the deal fell through two months Well, so do you02:26:30
this gave buy posts a second time02:26:33
buy at 100 Well, conditionally, these shares02:26:36
when we say accommodation it's well02:26:38
such promotions are also interesting, you can take them02:26:39
Well, you understand the risk of them. Well, take it02:26:42
I say myself 2 percent of the portfolio Well02:26:44
You can’t take these anymore, but they’ve worked out02:26:46
they are minus 50-60 Well, okay with 402:26:49
percent 2 percent lost02:26:51
from all my recommendations02:26:54
they are like most on wall street 5002:26:58
at 50 it's normal If you think that02:27:02
there are people who can give 7002:27:04
percent of correct recommendations so far02:27:06
there are no such people on the planet, well,02:27:09
Wall Street doesn't have anything like it yet02:27:11
the best they give 55 60 not even02:27:14
you will find it is a matter of risk ratio and02:27:18
profit to risk ratio02:27:21
that's what we're talking about. Therefore, there is a risk02:27:27
story buy for a percentage is cool02:27:29
less risky story02:27:33
That's all Well, one move on the good02:27:38
asset on good volume but also rebounds02:27:40
here are a bunch of such deals under John from02:27:43
translation and what02:27:44
so I immediately say that here I am sitting02:27:46
80 percent yes in TLT And this is me02:27:50
I believe I like the company but it was purchased on02:27:52
2 percent that's how much I'm not sure02:27:55
the money that he gave me but a row02:27:57
factors biotech you have worked out great02:28:00
there and why are you spinning money distributor02:28:03
extorting or just don’t want to02:28:05
cooperate I don't know with translation and02:28:07
shares in the floor holds up the mission because02:28:09
that they have to survive and someone's only one02:28:11
cash flow from transfer which is bad02:28:13
product that the company made no He02:28:15
good but to develop in the markets02:28:17
enter the market of China Japan Europe02:28:20
America needs money to continue spending02:28:24
development needs money but there is no money02:28:25
If the only Partner is a distributor02:28:28
in fact the biggest one leaves you Khan is02:28:31
doesn't mean the company is bankrupt02:28:34
no They will all attract further02:28:37
money Well, you're not on shares02:28:38
you will earn money and maybe get good drugs02:28:40
he will produce Forward in the coming years02:28:45
same thing One one of the pipelines02:28:48
fell apart there yes Well okay there are three there02:28:52
products that are there 2 3 clinical02:28:54
phases pass one of them failed Well02:28:56
shares minus 50 immediately Yes, so investors02:28:59
reacts to paper it's normal it's02:29:02
biotech02:29:05
Well, what did you say, the third round has already begun02:29:08
Yes, everyone heard you can't eat02:29:11
just no, it needs to be explained to the audience Because02:29:15
what people02:29:17
listen I know and work and02:29:21
some of our recommendations are only02:29:24
if they tell you it's interesting three years02:29:26
this is interesting speculative this is a five02:29:28
percent Here you can go 80 percent02:29:30
stuff the briefcase And this is a cool topic02:29:32
by 20 percent with a target of 20 percent02:29:35
take If Damn you ascended and he plus 3002:29:38
gave I said 30 This is normal and necessary02:29:41
pick up If you haven't picked up now at02:29:43
minus for you It's your problems plus 3002:29:46
they didn't take it I took it I didn't take it02:29:48
they took it away, it's your problem, I'm not here anymore02:29:51
and Well, friends are always very important02:29:53
comply with this risk profile and not02:29:56
be greedy don't be greedy and understand if02:29:58
those target levels Why did you even go to02:30:01
these positions are there if you're right, you come in with02:30:04
price target reached this target02:30:06
Or somewhere nearby then record if you02:30:08
as an investor you understand what you are sitting for02:30:10
there are no other meanings there02:30:14
react to drawdowns immediately by closing02:30:16
positions ask yourself what02:30:19
your goal when entering one or another02:30:21
deal and in general the goal and what you will02:30:24
what to do if something goes wrong too02:30:26
that's when you buy something What will I02:30:29
what to do when the situation is against me02:30:31
that I will sit and pray forever02:30:33
I'll kill an elk if it's 10 percent02:30:36
was charging And if -20 will be charged02:30:38
minus 30 immediately outline for yourself02:30:42
maximum loss you are willing to take02:30:44
take when entering a deal in one or02:30:46
another asset all because guess a hundred02:30:49
percentage of transactions is impossible02:30:52
Well, the ratio is just take profit02:30:55
to the stop loss three to one all with this02:30:59
earnings are achieved because 50 per02:31:03
50 guessed Didn’t guess even if deals But02:31:05
if you make a loss you lose02:31:07
you earn 3 percent profitable02:31:08
50 percent probability is enough02:31:11
guessing everything mate expectations mathematics02:31:14
works your side earn02:31:17
Everything is simple if he throws 20 10 from them02:31:21
worked 10 didn't work and you logged in02:31:23
even the volume you are in the black02:31:27
It seems to me that these words are necessary02:31:29
solve this issue Irina thanks02:31:32
Tatyana Goncharova thanks Nikon too02:31:35
friends thanks us thank you02:31:36
great that you were with us all this time02:31:38
write comments under this video By the way02:31:41
you won someone, that is, commentators02:31:44
no one guessed the price exactly, there was only one02:31:48
the person who is closest to everyone is Well, no02:31:52
I know we’ll give it to the next issue02:31:54
let's think about it02:31:57
impossible02:31:59
All friends have a nice weekend, take care02:32:02
yourself and your money, see you next time02:32:04
week for all useful links in the description02:32:06
under this video for nowDescription:
В прямом эфире Василий Олейник и Ирина Ахмадуллина обсудят все самое важное, что происходит на финансовых рынках и в мировой экономике. И, конечно, ответят на ваши вопросы. 00:00 В ожидании Васи и Иры 02:05 О чем эфир 03:46 Российский рынок, рубль, юань и нефть 26:46 Роснефть, Татнефть, Газпром и Новатэк 45:12 Сбер, Банк Санкт-Петербург, ВТБ, золото и портфель Иры 59:31 Финансовый кризис США и что зашортил Вася 01:13:05 Теханализ по индексам, Credit Suisse и ФРС 01:26:15 S&P500 с 1970-х, спасение от коллапса и главный драйвер роста рынка 01:44:15 Рынок долга США, доллар и инфляция Еврозоны 02:02:35 Китай и отчеты китайских компаний 02:15:57 Вася и Ира общаются с подписчиками и отвечают на вопросы 🆕 Смотрите новый выпуск @private_talks c экономистом Рубеном Ениколоповым, о котором говорил Вася https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vf0xycKmG8Y 👗 Одежда ведущей предоставлена LIMÉ https://lime-shop.com/catalog/new 18+ Не является индивидуальной инвестиционной рекомендацией.
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