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00:00:46
let's go Hello friends this is the Money project00:00:49
Wake up Friday live again00:00:51
We are summing up the results of the next week and we need to00:00:53
say this week turned out to be the worst00:00:56
this year or one of the worst How00:00:58
it’s correct to say probably probably everything00:00:59
still the worst No, one of the worst yet00:01:03
this year too, the worst is clearly yet to come00:01:06
In the fall, in short, while the bears are happy00:01:09
chooses the right words for this triumph00:01:11
this week investors I propose00:01:13
today to sort out which companies are worth00:01:15
add a Watch list except these all00:01:17
known to us00:01:22
and also Please rate my00:01:25
ability to continue speaking00:01:26
despite your mother00:01:28
like almost00:01:30
list00:01:32
on a note00:01:36
companies Just for show00:01:41
a real turning point00:01:43
interesting in the markets of the week closes00:01:46
it's a [ __ ] month if it closes like this then it's00:01:50
will be straight Wow for the bears But stayed00:01:52
One more week in principle if together00:01:54
will close according to the indexes someone has fallen00:01:57
operator fell It's okay00:02:02
If the month closes at minimum00:02:05
marks basically there no difference there00:02:06
be it Germany Russia or America Well00:02:09
Actually October will finish off maybe00:02:12
It may still be November, but in principle, well00:02:15
The Russian market is becoming interesting00:02:18
Let's just figure it out because00:02:20
there is also a good correction here, but 1000:02:22
percent of your maximum answers00:02:24
showed the correction Oh well00:02:25
impressive growth which was, as it were,00:02:27
nothing to talk about yet00:02:29
bad at least now I call it00:02:32
technical correction is worthy Well00:02:34
as if Bye Yes bye it's technical00:02:38
correction as if it's not difficult as if it's00:02:40
word trend growing if Looking at00:02:42
graph Yes anyway00:02:45
and then you can say it’s technical00:02:48
correction later it may be00:02:50
downward trend It’s not clear yet00:02:53
on the left side of the graph it is always unclear00:02:55
or rather everything is clear, here’s how to proceed00:02:58
one can always only guess, but there is00:03:02
reasons for correction main reason00:03:05
Listen, I read what you want. Well, sometimes00:03:07
I go through different forums and so on00:03:09
Because there was someone who said that00:03:11
It all started with us there because00:03:13
Nagorno-Karabakh is there, although it is there00:03:16
well, formally the reason was at the moment00:03:18
sales on the market have really started00:03:19
due to the aggravation of the situation there in the Caucasus00:03:22
Well, there was some unfavorable news under00:03:26
end of this week yes related00:03:28
additional taxes there and so on00:03:29
ban on the export of petroleum products OK00:03:32
someone knew in advance and in the same Rosneft00:03:35
before the news they were selling such volumes there00:03:36
someone was coming someone knew what was going on00:03:40
construction I’m not surprised but no one00:03:43
now nothing is surprising for a long time00:03:45
But the main reason for the correction seems to be00:03:48
she's basically the same We tried00:03:50
from here carry the last month that is00:03:52
Market stock market with its dividend00:03:56
profitability just doesn’t look right now00:03:58
profitable not interesting relatively00:04:00
current rate Even despite the current00:04:03
correction Here the market has corrected00:04:05
we are almost 10% down, there were 3,300 today00:04:07
on Friday morning then in the morning they touched 3,00000:04:09
marks She resisted here by the way00:04:11
one Friday candle is enough Here it is00:04:14
after all, I closed it with a green one, and here we go00:04:16
basically with an eye on Monday even00:04:18
maybe how long it will last00:04:19
so there were those who bought speculatively00:04:21
it probably makes sense to insert00:04:23
Well, it’s like a 10% correction, but00:04:28
previous issues discussed and talked00:04:30
that the Russian market is not interesting00:04:32
exactly from those levels that came out00:04:34
these releases because it’s natural00:04:37
we do not compare the stock market with00:04:40
with one rate We do not compare with00:04:42
there are no yields on debt even now00:04:46
I'll explain why Because it's in the index00:04:49
full profitability where we say this00:04:51
We calculate the aggregate exchange rate growth of shares00:04:54
dividend yield should still00:04:56
be just a correction for this one00:04:58
exchange rate growth from levels 3,300 is very00:05:02
it's difficult to find any potential for00:05:04
further growth of shares therefore of course00:05:07
but it was necessary to look for that turning point00:05:10
the moment when stocks would begin to cool and00:05:12
right now at this moment we are watching00:05:13
Damn so incorrect Listen00:05:15
Well, of course there are dividends and actually00:05:19
are you still counting on the site just in00:05:21
promotions Yes, but come on Okay, let's do it differently00:05:24
talk as if it's reasonable Yes, I'm buying00:05:26
risky asset again, I understand that00:05:29
risky asset as opposed to risk-free00:05:31
may fall by 20 30 40 percent00:05:32
accordingly I need additional00:05:35
time without risk so I buy risk00:05:37
So for some reason you00:05:40
she must00:05:43
dividend yield then yes00:05:46
it is not formed by dividends it is there00:05:48
site is formed due to the potential00:05:50
business of the companies themselves quotes and so on00:05:53
further this site is not equal in risk00:05:56
dividends I always have potential again00:05:59
falls take into account growth potentials00:06:02
growth potential than not to consider shares00:06:04
the candy wrapper will grow forever afterwards Yes, uh00:06:07
in 5-10-15 years we will be higher than a candy wrapper00:06:10
We'll definitely be higher, so I have a question00:06:12
now if I come in what00:06:14
the potential for a fall could be well00:06:17
ok uh00:06:18
the market fell by 10%, Well, the yield is strong00:06:21
the Moscow Exchange index is not there00:06:23
changed if we take the top 20 prices were00:06:25
liquid securities their weights count them00:06:28
potential dividends there00:06:29
Sberbank there 30-35 there at some00:06:32
I don’t know Lukoil there, 700-1,000 rubles Well00:06:36
approximately estimates Well here we get00:06:39
still about 9% now 9 about 900:06:42
percent yield index Moscow00:06:44
exchange console 13, that is, the Market a little00:06:47
asked but he sank considerably due to00:06:50
just the second third echelon and in00:06:52
he probably doesn’t need to dive now he00:06:54
extremely overbought even still, well00:06:56
and clearly this is the favorite and probably the most00:07:00
the best one is from Masha who is still holding on00:07:01
Lukoil because that’s where it’s at00:07:03
Maybe00:07:04
dividends comparable now with Yes with00:07:08
rate of the Central Bank That is00:07:09
now dividends are about 13-14%, if00:07:12
we charge 1,000 rubles, well, many people think that00:07:15
Lukoil can for this whole year00:07:18
pay 1,000 rubles at the end of the year00:07:19
dividends Well then the yield00:07:20
That's why it turns out to be 1600:07:23
relative to current prices therefore Lukoil00:07:25
in fact, you see it on any00:07:27
the strait immediately buys and spills heavily00:07:29
it is not given that oil growth there is tenth00:07:31
Sberbank dividend yield now00:07:34
if you read 30 rubles per share Well, about 1300:07:37
probably percent somewhere it turns out that00:07:40
there are lower rates Sberbank Well on your own00:07:42
marks fairly rated there with00:07:44
250-260 is its price conditionally Yes00:07:47
Central Bank prefixes at Six00:07:48
percent of course I understand that these00:07:52
shares should grow with such dividends00:07:54
there 13 14 prefix 13 they are all00:07:57
fair prices therefore no market here00:08:00
rolled back but to say that he became00:08:02
attractive not yet not yet not yet00:08:05
we actually kept the 3000 mark00:08:08
points00:08:09
closing of the week is not bad 3050 here is the day00:08:12
Almost today we bought it and closed it00:08:15
yesterday is the day of the fall therefore in00:08:16
in principle, here's a technical rebound for now00:08:18
small maybe but if Look00:08:19
weekly candles and menstrual periods, then what?00:08:22
I would like to make a clear turn on large frames00:08:25
in general it is drawn all over the world00:08:27
all indexes so I wouldn't care00:08:29
it was assumed that the index would be00:08:31
lower Well, all the more chances for strengthening00:08:34
I think there are still rubles left00:08:37
high ruble at some point00:08:39
time the country will be strengthened therefore00:08:41
this will be negative for ruble assets00:08:43
Well, the actual closing of the week is below00:08:46
3000, I would even say below 2950 if00:08:50
to be precise Well open the way to the mark00:08:52
2,800 there if we get there Well, there it would be00:08:55
I bought more aggressively Now I do too00:08:58
bought a little stock indices Well00:09:00
a small fraction is not much risk00:09:04
I'm at 2,800 right now. Yes, I'd like to00:09:06
I'd love to have more of something00:09:08
purchased beneficiaries Of course I say00:09:12
dividends first buy them00:09:13
don’t get involved in low-liquid second-line stocks just yet00:09:15
third echelons They themselves are extremely extremely00:09:18
oversold we might have something now00:09:19
we'll find it, we'll sort it out, we'll sort it out, so here we go00:09:23
So the RTS index is again below 100000:09:25
left closed for thousands here00:09:28
there is no life, so let's just ruble U00:09:31
us 96 to the yuan the same marks there a little00:09:34
about 13 and kopecks Well, that’s 96 in boxing00:09:37
if we look at 95 after expiration00:09:40
almost walked Well, 9625 closing Okay00:09:45
is taking a number of steps00:09:48
conversations before currencies have some kind of control00:09:50
Here's some news that00:09:52
should help strengthen the ruble00:09:54
By the way, we already have a plan here today00:09:57
budget for next year for the next00:09:59
two years was announced by Siluan To00:10:01
there is a small deficit there00:10:03
So, basically, well for the ruble for now00:10:07
Everything is working out for him to strengthen. I already00:10:10
I don’t know how Geopolitics will be or not, but00:10:12
everything that the Ministry of Finance undertakes and00:10:15
the government is doing everything to00:10:17
stabilization and even some00:10:19
ruble adjustments towards strengthening00:10:21
Let's get some news first00:10:23
we need to say about them too. And then and00:10:27
then we'll move on, then you'll decide00:10:29
Let's sort out the company00:10:31
reasons for another reason for correction00:10:33
which00:10:34
there was an export restriction this week00:10:37
fuel Yes from Russia for petroleum products00:10:41
gasoline diesel fuel it is clear that00:10:43
us00:10:44
the lion's share of a decent volume00:10:46
the same Rosneft supplies abroad00:10:48
that's why it has nothing to do with the news00:10:51
sales were still going on and everyone didn’t understand why00:10:53
falls on what falls the day before the news00:10:55
then all day yesterday we had news00:10:58
in the evening Rosneft arrived and00:11:01
environment, that's all about the volume in a glass00:11:03
we saw huge ones, well, Rosneft is all there00:11:06
Gazpromneft and Lukoil Although it is smaller there00:11:09
Surgut is probably suffering00:11:12
Transneft the whole oil industry there percent00:11:14
four conditionally drove off on this news00:11:16
Well again the news is basically quite00:11:18
logical and correct. They were needed a long time ago00:11:20
take action because damn Russia00:11:22
oil power Damn now in00:11:24
in most regions there are simply problems with00:11:27
there is no diesel fuel00:11:29
just farmers say just simple00:11:32
there is no damn majority in terms of region00:11:34
some kind of nonsense is going on here00:11:37
the price tags have skyrocketed so much00:11:39
It’s just that my dear mother doesn’t say damn us00:11:41
the game is now under winter there, Fields are needed00:11:43
There’s simply nowhere to plow and sow something00:11:45
there is nothing to buy because everything is where everything is00:11:49
[ __ ] for export because there too00:11:52
there is a lot of demand there and they buy it at a premium00:11:54
also for Europa Why come here to Russia if00:11:57
you can sell it there for more money Well, actually00:11:59
our oil companies are half well00:12:02
Instead I say deficit00:12:04
are created in our market in order to create more00:12:06
make money there, it's crazy00:12:09
Well actually with I'm talking Where I was looking00:12:11
There is also a face regarding the rise in prices for00:12:14
gasoline and then for some reason the prices00:12:16
controls mobile operators00:12:18
for some reason Yes, the prices for gasoline are there00:12:21
have been outpacing inflation for a long time00:12:23
something is not in control00:12:25
but there seem to be several people to blame for this00:12:27
Russian large companies This is understandable00:12:29
Well, actually the decision was made00:12:31
that's right, it's very cool here00:12:35
In my opinion Let it be negative00:12:37
affected the companies, no big deal00:12:39
It’s better if they don’t earn extra money Yes, but00:12:42
this is better than the diesel fuel we have there now and00:12:45
and farmers will buy fuel at three00:12:48
times more expensive then their products will be00:12:50
[ __ ] it's five times more expensive and then all this00:12:52
I don’t need inflation anymore00:12:55
dividends from Rosneft After all, gifts00:12:58
10% when I have food inflation00:13:00
will be plus 30 no Sorry You'd better00:13:03
Earn less and damn it Leave it00:13:05
here you don’t want products in the country like00:13:10
American scenario When in this00:13:12
inflation portfolio just the same00:13:14
key key segment can00:13:16
switch to fuel energy and00:13:18
so I don’t want to go there anymore That’s why00:13:20
you made the right decision, it was right and let00:13:25
oil and inflation are screwed00:13:27
is having an impact and will continue to have an impact00:13:30
when does the shortage begin in the market but00:13:32
this is generally nonsense That's why with one00:13:35
hand I say husband atom economics Central Bank00:13:37
shakes the economy at a high rate and with00:13:39
on the other hand there is a damn company00:13:41
who are just trying to get hotter00:13:43
And why bother accelerating inflation here in00:13:46
country But damn it, it just needs to be surreal00:13:49
Is it really not possible up there?00:13:51
say everyone understands the true reasons00:13:53
there are problems with how to stabilize the exchange rate00:13:55
how to stabilize inflation and so on00:13:57
there are better ones and some worse ones00:13:59
options gather yourselves before decide Well here you go00:14:02
some damn really more or less00:14:04
some adequate stabilization measures00:14:05
inflation and ruble exchange rates, including00:14:07
second point Let me say it00:14:08
negative for the company but not so much00:14:11
It’s clear that the time is not the same in Europe00:14:14
By the way, this news will suck00:14:16
By the way, who doesn’t know the current00:14:18
diesel fuel reserves Yes in the same00:14:20
Europe Well, in general, it is located all over the world00:14:22
almost at minimum levels00:14:24
really there, well in many especially00:14:26
European problems with this, that's why there00:14:30
the price tags are much higher Therefore, the company Well00:14:33
they have a real desire to eat conditionally there with00:14:35
such a cool thing to sell this whole thing there00:14:36
Well, that’s understandable. But now they seem to have00:14:39
a deficit is formed and right there on00:14:41
external sites times diesel prices00:14:42
fuel immediately gas prices jumped00:14:44
By the way, they went to Europe again because00:14:47
to make up for this, pick up euros now00:14:48
record storage record volumes with00:14:50
storage facilities are already in September right now00:14:52
there will be a problem with fuel and another00:14:54
news one is yes relatively00:14:56
introduction00:14:57
there are already additional export duties00:15:00
so to speak, I did not bring it for exporters00:15:02
the oil and gas sector is special for everyone00:15:04
does not participate Here But for everyone else00:15:07
I don’t know who the metallurgists are, the coal miners00:15:11
whoever gets all kinds of fertilizer there00:15:12
of course it falls under this well s00:15:15
pegged there to the exchange rate here00:15:19
such a gravitational scale will also be00:15:22
here here no here no need to look00:15:25
something there seems to me to be minfinx00:15:28
the budget is going to be replenished through Well00:15:31
It’s clear that this is a budget addition00:15:33
partly but the main reason is still00:15:35
also another is the stabilization of the same00:15:37
exchange rate and stabilization of inflation I believe00:15:39
that this is also quite correct00:15:41
the decision is both correct and logical, that is00:15:44
We've already taken some first steps00:15:46
on currency control about which now00:15:48
They argue for a long time. Our Central Bank Ministry of Finance is tough or00:15:51
soft scenario here are some first steps00:15:53
they are still undertaking it Well, actually00:15:56
companies too, you don’t want it again00:15:58
receive additional income from00:16:00
revaluation of currencies which are stored in00:16:03
in principle from your exports yes to you00:16:05
profitable cheap rate you're more on it00:16:07
earn money and pay more here you go00:16:10
don't want to pay more to convert00:16:12
science revenue must also be paid additionally00:16:15
logical logical as if well and again I00:16:20
I say We have the same Europe Once again On00:16:23
how much is export twice a year?00:16:26
Europe has increased its fertilizer supply from Russia00:16:31
please Because with such prices00:16:33
gas you understand perfectly well yes fertilizer00:16:35
Almost no one produces in Europe00:16:37
the bass can’t be there already in my opinion Basov00:16:40
Wait there. Yes, great. Well, close it for me.00:16:43
yours for one of the factories and there is a second one00:16:45
also under threat00:16:46
many are closing That's all Well done00:16:50
Finally, there’s no need for diesel there00:16:53
stop fueling the whole of Europe00:16:55
stop fertilizers Let them do nothing00:16:57
In general, nothing is being sown this year and00:16:59
next year nothing sows everything and no00:17:02
problems00:17:06
430 now considering what's going on00:17:09
and it develops Well, now towards the end of autumn00:17:12
winter to the beginning of winter Well, 500 will see again00:17:15
Europe gas prices00:17:17
some more familiar scenario every00:17:20
Apparently we're going through the winter, well, just how00:17:24
no matter what I say, they don’t seem to take anything00:17:26
it seems like you can’t take anything from Russia, but00:17:28
still the game is diesel fuel there00:17:31
These are like his oil product takes horseradish00:17:35
knows how long the same Europe is with us this time00:17:37
Yes, twice as much fertilizer as before00:17:39
take LNG who knows how much it takes00:17:42
close everything close everything block everything00:17:45
Let their inflation not be 56 A 78 900:17:51
10 vase Come on to our to our market00:17:55
to our problems to kill00:17:58
economy at high stakes to high00:18:00
finishes off the bet on this one Well, let it be there00:18:02
The Central Bank is killing the economy with a high rate00:18:04
Boris inflation They are here in Russia00:18:08
it turns out that there is such garbage there and here we are00:18:10
we do exactly the same thing to ourselves, well00:18:12
here are at least a few correct solutions00:18:14
they may not be so favorable yet00:18:17
times I say for shares of some companies00:18:19
it is understandable and logical, but once again the speech00:18:22
is about retaining some excess income00:18:24
or A minimization of some excess income00:18:26
There's nothing catastrophic here00:18:28
one company I actually absolutely do not00:18:30
I see Yes, of course, cumulatively This is correct00:18:32
solution Because if the company00:18:34
work in good economic conditions00:18:38
a situation where inflation is under control00:18:40
stable where the rate is also with us00:18:42
such a stable instrument00:18:45
which allows you to conclude contracts00:18:47
build financial models And most importantly00:18:49
Of course the consumer is also sure00:18:50
tomorrow then all together00:18:53
together gives a sustainable economy in00:18:56
which gives the consumer peace of mind and00:18:58
business calmly and in principle in such00:19:00
comfortable conditions to develop and00:19:03
continue to do business for the last time00:19:06
news we have a week which is also00:19:07
you need to keep in mind what you are watching with us00:19:11
Well, the correction is happening Yes00:19:14
I say I wouldn't climb yet Even if we00:19:17
we’ll also dive down 7-10 percent there00:19:19
to the 2,800 mark Well, conditionally Yes, conditionally00:19:21
that's where the attractiveness of many is already00:19:24
there will be pieces of paper Well, if we take that one there00:19:26
Sberbank will be there with its profitability00:19:28
he is there 240-230 to from me If I collect00:19:32
the yield will already be there 15 1600:19:35
cool, that’s why there’s a fundamental market there00:19:38
will be interesting, maybe not entirely, but00:19:39
many papers if Lukoil is there now 1600:19:42
profitability will be adjusted00:19:44
there 17 or 18 or 19 It’s clear that00:19:47
first of all, you need to select exactly these00:19:49
the coolest papers in the second third00:19:51
Echelon especially where there is none yet00:19:52
don't bother with dividends, shouldn't you be the first?00:19:55
these are some pieces of paper, but it’s clear that00:19:58
Favorite Sber and Lukoil Well, you can add00:20:00
oil growth, especially now at these00:20:02
she's always in the news Just Well, yes, yes00:20:07
Rosneft partly still doesn't care00:20:09
remains interesting in the long term00:20:11
so does everyone, but there is a moment that00:20:16
must have must remember about him now00:20:20
and don’t forget Yes, our Ministry of Finance issued00:20:22
first regular this week Ministry of Finance00:20:26
believes that the securities were bought by Russian00:20:28
companies with non-resident shareholders00:20:30
must be partially listed on the stock exchange00:20:33
That is, how do you understand that we have such00:20:36
for now here's a magnet and Lukoil to a magnet00:20:38
bought up bought up before Lukoil is going00:20:40
buy a trillion-dollar package for00:20:44
half a trillion with a 50 percent discount on00:20:47
That is, the Ministry of Finance believes that part00:20:50
I don't know if there's a package of these pieces of paper00:20:52
completely Partially Yes We need to sell it00:20:54
market00:20:56
Well, sort of00:20:58
you just need to keep in mind Lukoil company00:21:01
in which everyone is sitting Well, it’s not like that00:21:03
it turned out that after the transaction the shares may00:21:05
get under pressure just have00:21:08
mean keep in mind Cool in general how00:21:11
make money out of the blue Yes, that's it00:21:12
crisis damn all the time opportunities yes for00:21:16
rich when someone has money and in00:21:19
crisis as always the poor are poorer the rich00:21:21
get rich here are the opportunities Yes, in one and a half00:21:26
trillion buy it for half a trillion and00:21:29
go to the market to sell it at the market price00:21:31
twice the price00:21:33
so that I can live like this just sell it to me00:21:36
someone Sberbank for 125 I'll go for it00:21:38
I'll sell it for 250 tomorrow Damn no00:21:41
such If there is me this like him I am ready I00:21:46
here, no one wants 125 Sber00:21:48
I feel sorry for selling it. They want to sell Lukoil, it’s a pity00:21:52
Certainly00:21:55
trillion Just out of the blue00:21:57
I needed a gift before00:22:00
communicate more closely with non-residents Well then00:22:02
Friends, let's move on to the market.00:22:04
Traditionally, I will show everything on the market00:22:07
believed in the bullish scenario up to00:22:10
the end of the year is now by the way Goldman00:22:12
wrote this week what's in it00:22:14
the quarter where the deficit begins00:22:15
There will be two million barrels of oil in the world00:22:18
approximately 2 million per day Well00:22:21
kick-ass00:22:23
with gas, by the way, do you know what else?00:22:27
the theme in America is theirs too00:22:31
the energy agency ported that00:22:33
what they are waiting for is quite significant now00:22:36
reduction in shale oil production in00:22:38
coming months Here is another article00:22:41
there was another one who went over there00:22:43
some kind of oil industry expert00:22:45
says that it’s not like there00:22:48
The shale of centuries has already been mined there. There’s nothing there00:22:50
almost there and the reserves are depleted, but also on00:22:53
the largest deposits, too, that is00:22:54
America has now increased to 12 12 and 900:22:58
or something lipstick million barrel up00:23:00
maximum as much as I could But here she is00:23:02
at this rate he will be able to download completely00:23:04
not for long They will also have a recession now00:23:06
quite significant interesting on such00:23:09
oil market conditions, what will happen to00:23:10
American gas in the world demand for00:23:13
historical maximum it is only growing00:23:15
Apex of Russia is being created artificially00:23:17
deficit As you understand00:23:20
This is good00:23:22
so 100 dollars in oil is all00:23:26
everyone believed, so we'll see00:23:30
so I like oil oil00:23:33
in principle, I am playing games with an eye on the year 2500:23:37
Despite the fact that the world was still there00:23:39
will plunge into recession there will be some kind of chaos00:23:41
and two or three blocks but then I say00:23:44
Now let's get to the printing press in the USA too00:23:46
really necessary inevitable I don’t care what’s there00:23:48
this week Pavla said that he is there00:23:50
thinks thinks in his own nonsense00:23:54
yes yes printing press next year00:23:57
run at high inflation design00:23:59
with some valuable ones there will be 100 at00:24:01
100 will be Come on, a piece is missing We00:24:03
we'll move it to another episode now00:24:06
let's move on to the Russian market00:24:08
the tradition of showing my portfolio continues00:24:11
I don't show anything two years have passed00:24:14
and continues to make sure you are there00:24:16
they even talked about this week by the way00:24:18
Microsoft dividends arrived a long time ago00:24:21
doesn’t hold the paper, I sold it but I’m holding it too00:24:25
I’ll add a block on America later00:24:27
got gold and Tishka's body00:24:33
Come on, I'm on the team, basically from00:24:36
such special news is probably only00:24:38
I receive dividend coupons in general00:24:40
so classic stable00:24:43
investor portfolio at current levels00:24:45
I'm not interested in the market because it's expensive00:24:48
and this is what I am in the pulse of every Monday00:24:51
on air I say what I'm waiting for00:24:52
technical correction I'm waiting for the correction Then00:24:54
there is I believe long term00:24:57
I am long-term on the Russian market but00:25:00
I don’t want to buy more now00:25:02
because it's really too expensive00:25:04
company shares and actually now I00:25:07
I want to go to our investor plasma00:25:10
because it is in this part that I00:25:13
I would like to highlight which companies also00:25:15
may be interesting for investors Not00:25:17
not in the moment today but some00:25:20
the upcoming correction which will be00:25:23
yes I agree with you that the market00:25:25
Russian for sure Will cool down plus00:25:28
we clearly have the top 3 issuers that00:25:32
I VNO it’s worth getting more and buying this Lukoil00:25:36
Sber and Rosneft and where else to invest00:25:40
your money00:25:41
bloody here I will also talk00:25:44
you see about low liquid securities00:25:46
here the Cherkizov company is the issuer00:25:49
I have a briefcase and I also have it00:25:51
interested in purchasing here I see Vasya00:25:54
your line is 3 500 well00:25:58
As they say, I don’t know, we’ll get there00:26:00
or not00:26:01
whether we get there or not, but in about00:26:05
somewhere 3,700 3,800 You can definitely go here00:26:08
look towards this issuer and00:26:11
in general in general study I'm moving along00:26:15
I'm probably looking at these companies00:26:18
a few things are basically on its own00:26:19
business for stability about the group00:26:22
Cherkizovo companies I talked a lot00:26:23
I sorted out the reports there, well, basically00:26:26
everything is good for the first half of the year revenue00:26:28
plus 16 percent net profit plus00:26:31
142 that is, it’s really good there00:26:33
active business dividends company too00:26:36
probably pays at current levels00:26:38
really not interesting dividend00:26:39
the yield is something closer to three percent00:26:41
By the way, there will be a dividend on October 100:26:44
cutoff and perhaps in these in this00:26:46
area on these dates it will be possible to come here00:26:48
after dividends also collect00:26:53
Well, athletes are athletes all around00:26:57
need chicken breast all athletes but in00:26:59
in general, yes, that is, we see here such00:27:01
dynamics but just about inflation Yes00:27:04
including this is what we are talking about00:27:05
farmers fuel and so on Of course00:27:07
it all influences there and on the final00:27:09
goods for final products, that is, we00:27:12
we see that the last six months have been00:27:14
the cost of meat in Russia is growing there00:27:16
just visible visible so rising00:27:19
trend is futures Vasya live bevel I'm not00:27:24
I know there is a wonderful one on Finvision00:27:26
infographics here if you are investors directly00:27:28
Go there to performance futures00:27:31
you can directly by asset product categories00:27:35
look in completely different directions and00:27:37
futures for live cattle is actually00:27:39
now I’m on high, that is, that’s exactly me00:27:41
I understand that then it’s American00:27:43
Tysonfoods on Loi in America there with00:27:46
with cattle it’s somehow possible to do it yourself00:27:51
even starts it means there’s nothing there for me00:27:54
it seems right there about the factories in00:27:56
Russia We will also say This too00:27:58
a truly unique situation in Russian00:28:01
market about factories about industry and00:28:02
so on, well, in general, right here00:28:03
unique situation in general Visible here00:28:06
still potential for what's next00:28:08
quarter in the next quarter I think that00:28:10
Cherkizovo group of companies Well, basically00:28:12
probably companies that work in00:28:14
this industry will show good00:28:16
decent results also extra00:28:19
I’ll add more about the Cherkizovo group of companies00:28:22
that there is an increase in exports then00:28:24
there is about plus 10 percent, that's it00:28:27
How much does export increase? And this00:28:29
also seems to be good, that is, it’s understandable00:28:31
that the main focus is on the internal00:28:33
market but if the export component00:28:35
which, in principle, probably already does some00:28:38
diversification and protection from00:28:42
devaluation of the ruble, but let me remind you, friends, that00:28:46
Cherkizov group of companies This is the issuer00:28:48
which over the past few weeks00:28:50
got hit by pumps It's low liquidity if00:28:53
you have a lot of capital there00:28:55
manager or so on then I think that00:28:57
you will feel uncomfortable there00:28:59
let's go just HeadHunter here00:29:03
also a cool issuer, I have one too00:29:05
I still took this issuer in my portfolio00:29:09
long there before his In general, he’s right00:29:12
To be honest, I’m still minus now00:29:14
but why does it seem to me that now00:29:16
could be an interesting moment for00:29:18
entry because basically the whole00:29:20
The Russian market is not a market now00:29:23
employer this is probably one of00:29:27
unique stories when it's a market00:29:29
employee Because there is such a level00:29:33
competition hunter index which00:29:37
is defined in such a way that00:29:39
the number of resumes is divided by the number00:29:41
vacancies now this index00:29:44
this is actually one of the most minimal00:29:48
positions in our Russian market plus00:29:51
even according to the unemployment rate now00:29:54
low that is what does it mean now00:29:57
employees can choose their employer00:30:01
very difficult and very00:30:03
long period of searching for workers in00:30:06
In principle, there is even a shortage00:30:08
frames And in fact that's why now00:30:11
factories don't close why even here I am00:30:13
I talked to Segezha literally on Thursday and00:30:15
I also asked what the factories say00:30:17
like no, we keep our factories there at least00:30:19
no matter how difficult it is now, but we will be ours00:30:21
keep the plant because the staff is very00:30:24
it is expensive and time-consuming to recruit personnel in Russia and00:30:29
this is a study here about 15200:30:32
companies responded and we see that the worker00:30:35
personnel production warehouses logistics00:30:36
this is where the shortage is happening00:30:39
acute shortage of people for these positions00:30:42
plus our baby Well, here’s the top 4 too00:30:45
also closes We see that the market is on00:30:49
really very hot00:30:50
curious yes00:30:53
what's interesting is that here's the timing00:30:57
filling difficult vacancies he really00:30:59
really big, that is, the principles are here00:31:00
until six months there is no number here Numbers there 60 6000:31:04
companies of the entire survey by actual00:31:06
They've been looking for people to join their team for six months What00:31:10
this means for HeadHunter The longer00:31:13
you have this advertisement hanging on your00:31:17
open position the more you pay00:31:19
HeadHunter because just like that00:31:22
They have a monetization system working there00:31:24
this is their main business, that is,00:31:27
you have an ad hanging for six months00:31:29
pay hanhat hunter on this00:31:32
HeadHunter makes money here too00:31:34
By the way, I also published this month00:31:37
there is an ad for 2000 rubles by the way00:31:39
in a week so that the position does not hang00:31:42
it was very pleasant And here for six months00:31:44
people pay these relatively speaking00:31:47
sums in short a huge problem And why00:31:51
general personnel00:31:53
Now in the market this is the change00:31:55
the priority of the employees themselves is that00:31:57
companies choose there, well, probably this00:31:59
connected with the generation that there were00:32:01
some internal company values and plus00:32:04
there is also low qualification of candidates00:32:06
also one of the reasons why it took so long00:32:09
people are looking for a long, long, long time demographics00:32:12
demographics here it is and outflow pit pit pit00:32:18
that's all too00:32:21
there is a macroeconomic situation here00:32:24
let's be correct here so we all00:32:27
we see this here so HeadHunter00:32:28
also an interesting issuer because the market00:32:31
it was outlined globally by the company00:32:34
has been looking for a man for six months00:32:36
I’ll remind the team. What’s the second one?00:32:39
HeadHunter earned plus 78 in the quarter00:32:42
percent of revenue net profit three00:32:44
billion rubles That's basically it00:32:46
huge position00:32:48
undistributed of course on accounts with00:32:51
this HeadHunter once paid00:32:53
dividends and perhaps if the question is about00:32:56
Methylation will become a thing again for the company00:32:59
relevant I think it will become00:33:01
relevant then perhaps the company will return00:33:04
then to the distribution of dividends00:33:06
we move on and to the Arctic I remember how I00:33:11
came to the project two years ago and00:33:15
sorted out the company in the Arctic, few of them00:33:17
then she said And who thought at all, well, I00:33:20
I was afraid of what was here and when there00:33:22
September '21 that's something here I am00:33:25
took the bonds, now look where you got00:33:28
we are being traded by a company about drugs00:33:30
wants to say a few words what it is00:33:32
breeding company00:33:34
there were a lot of salmon deals00:33:37
the takeover of factories is generally true00:33:40
good fundamental company too00:33:42
low liquid low liquid too00:33:45
one of the negative aspects but also on00:33:48
Arctic 33 percent market share in Russia00:33:52
then, in principle, it is a favorite Well, straight00:33:54
very very good results for the year revenue00:33:57
We also have an increase in net debt by00:34:01
Super comfortable level in the area00:34:03
units are visible and the demand itself is visible00:34:06
there you can see that there is a salmon market00:34:08
I actually have, well, there was a schedule00:34:12
on the salmon market that the salmon market00:34:15
must grow and will grow and00:34:16
respectively, the company's share and00:34:18
Arctic and revenue But there are such00:34:21
I won't show you this graphic00:34:23
then I publish it anyway, that’s why00:34:25
and mine also ends up in the Arctic00:34:28
Watch sheet, tell me what's there00:34:32
there's a ton of fish everywhere this year and00:34:36
they say the prices for red fish this year00:34:38
will fall just in the fall I go to something00:34:41
I go and look at the store every week00:34:44
for some reason nothing is falling00:34:49
he also asks Alexander when how00:34:51
do you think when the price of apartments will fall and00:34:53
how much00:34:55
something's not getting cheaper wait come on00:34:58
let's move on to the plane and we'll discuss this00:35:00
the question is that nothing is getting cheaper00:35:02
when we lived in Russia we saw something00:35:06
cheaper I don't know00:35:08
this was the past gasoline may rise00:35:11
by 20 percent then fell by 300:35:19
you know this last summer00:35:23
Last summer when we had a dollar there00:35:26
50 each, well in the spring everything is possible too00:35:29
go buy iPhones Dysons from Turkey00:35:32
it was all these buyers who were running around Well, yes00:35:35
it was really cheap back then00:35:37
The situation is now normal again, no longer00:35:39
so about the sofline company00:35:42
on Vintik correctly Vasya I read these words00:35:47
to be honest, I don’t remember that I really00:35:50
she analyzed this company in great detail00:35:52
everything is frozen00:35:55
yes, that’s where I went into the application00:35:58
literally before the start of the broadcast you can00:35:59
just sell00:36:01
you can't buy it now, that's why we're there00:36:03
We’re waiting when they seem to write that from 2600:36:06
September it will be possible to trade these00:36:09
papers from a financial point of view00:36:11
sustainability Yes, we have a super schedule00:36:14
from a financial point of view00:36:16
sustainability is here True Well, everything is fine00:36:18
that is, we see that the adjusted00:36:19
net debt Lebedev one Well, that too00:36:23
cool because now borrow on00:36:25
the market is very expensive, only here00:36:27
few companies that manage00:36:30
it is very profitable to restructure your00:36:32
average-known rates00:36:33
you have no idea what company it is00:36:36
now I’m telling you who the [ __ ] is00:36:39
accordingly for net profit too00:36:41
really cool00:36:42
six months 23 years where are these four00:36:46
million rubles That is 4 billion00:36:49
rubles, well, it’s clear that the indicators00:36:51
very cool the management itself says that00:36:53
we were able to adapt and have a high base00:36:56
last year00:36:58
so friends, I'm sorry, high base00:37:01
last year, no company anyway00:37:05
was able to adapt to a high base00:37:07
in the first half of 23 years also show00:37:09
good result00:37:11
So I have another question00:37:15
for some reason they put me in my place00:37:17
I wonder how to continue to tell my00:37:18
slides friends now00:37:23
freezing until the deadlines are clear that no one00:37:26
doesn’t know anything with us even after freezing00:37:28
we have polymetal back here plus 1000:37:32
percent for opening and then filling00:37:34
this flood started all day long00:37:37
the next day and so on Well, I see00:37:39
What00:37:40
[music]00:37:42
Hmm, no advantages for purchase yet00:37:44
can’t be seen as a bullet in a polymetal, but then00:37:46
yes because selling Russian00:37:48
business seems to be in parts00:37:49
it’s unclear how to whom and how much, well00:37:53
Russian investors actually none00:37:57
you don't receive dividends00:37:58
you know, that is, everything will be there in Europe00:38:01
going to hell too, well, sort of00:38:04
[ __ ] her Well, actually there was a gap00:38:07
opening plus 10 and here's the fix I hope00:38:11
with VK there will also be a gap, I’m still falling00:38:15
under freezing typed in position left in00:38:21
VKontakte I don’t know It’s just technical00:38:24
the moment will be maybe a little more complicated00:38:25
because there Sin will change then00:38:28
there is a number right here on the stock exchange, that is00:38:31
a different number, as it were, well, there are others00:38:33
the shares will have their own identification00:38:35
the number could be a technical one00:38:36
the moment may notice more time00:38:38
it will take months to move00:38:40
cool precedents I'm in one right away00:38:43
industry in principle IT what VK what00:38:46
I’ll also add softline, I’ll complete the block about00:38:49
softline because here it is a dividend00:38:51
company That is, this is approximately conditional00:38:54
saying some analogue of pozzie is what00:38:56
collect these competitive advantages00:38:58
according to this, let's say this investor00:39:02
there is a growing attraction here00:39:04
market because the IT industry market is everything00:39:07
analysts predict that it will grow00:39:09
up to 27 years plus the company itself00:39:11
dividend up to 25 percent00:39:15
net profit according to IFRS is distributed00:39:18
among dividends plus for year 24 even00:39:21
there is a minimum threshold of at least one00:39:23
billion rubles then here I think that00:39:25
as usual We remember the dividend season00:39:27
which we have in Summer00:39:29
quotes grow on these pleasant00:39:32
good news So I think that00:39:35
softline you can definitely take a closer look00:39:38
study analyze but again neither00:39:41
liquid issuer Be careful here I am00:39:45
I agree with you and we’ll see00:39:46
how she will open up, how she will behave00:39:48
Here00:39:50
as if I also have a small plan00:39:54
add 23 percent share there to the portfolio00:39:57
a great analogy, or rather simply00:39:59
excellent analogue of pose and VK Including00:40:02
Well, yes00:40:03
so let's take a little break from your blog00:40:07
then I will continue then beautifully Let's come back00:40:09
once again a technical point00:40:12
So okay, for now in the world, well, Russia again00:40:17
the ideas are all clear, we looked through it a little00:40:22
fell00:40:24
it was a bad week for the whole world00:40:27
record outflow actually on this00:40:29
week of shares record influx by the way00:40:31
there was an American gang there not for the first time00:40:34
week is not the first month, even record ones00:40:35
the flows are coming but there are price tags00:40:37
continues to fall now I’ll also explain00:40:39
why but first us according to tradition00:40:41
China is coming, Hong Kong is even more so there00:40:45
infrastructure risk for Russians now00:40:47
no invest you can listen to this00:40:50
week Hong Kong and Chinese index index00:40:52
Hong Kong Updated Friday Thursday Yes00:40:55
minimum grades for the year in general00:40:57
you see that in India there is a rally in00:41:00
Europe Rally Well, not the Europe Rally there00:41:03
sideways in America rally in Russia rally00:41:05
in Japan rally China Hong Kong just00:41:09
in the minus since the beginning of the year the name is also the bottom00:41:12
rewrote that is, the Hong Kong index00:41:14
opened in early January at around00:41:16
somewhere around 20 thousand points if not more noticeable00:41:19
memory here00:41:20
well, actually now 18 closed at 1000:41:24
percent almost lower and well, there was even00:41:27
17600 on Thursday I'm doing Crimea now00:41:31
and I’ll say it all again Everything’s not bad00:41:34
Everything is good in China00:41:37
the company is all good to leave especially00:41:39
companies have good reports, stocks are flowing Well, I00:41:42
I say there is a flurry of negativity in all the Foreign Ministries00:41:45
this is an order in the Western media for downgrades00:41:48
from all investment company banks All00:41:50
record capital outflow is coming out00:41:53
It’s understandable against the backdrop of the weakening yuan because00:41:56
that rates in China are lower than in the USA and with00:41:59
market for a long time Chinese money is running Well00:42:01
in fact, all this puts pressure on Chinese00:42:03
yuan Well, after all, from the action record attacks00:42:06
were just now for the last time00:42:09
month It was the strongest capital outflow00:42:12
from China since 2015 already looked00:42:15
yes, that is, this has not happened in 8 years. Well00:42:19
like this but still today00:42:21
yesterday morning America Thursday is under us00:42:24
collapsed a little And despite the fall00:42:27
America this morning China Hong Kong00:42:29
shares grew well by 4-5 percent00:42:32
everyone soared index there interest there by00:42:34
two and a half three have grown but still00:42:36
Hong Kong managed to close slightly higher again00:42:39
18 thousand points to Well, the downward channel00:42:42
so I understand that it is essentially formed00:42:43
he is still moving in it, that is,00:42:45
at least we need to punch 19 now00:42:47
up at least Oh well, the goals Here they are00:42:49
resistance 20-22 that's it00:42:54
Shanghai Composite Index If we take the same00:42:56
the downward trend is almost sawing00:42:59
I don’t know, it’s been there for six months, it’s possible00:43:03
what will be lower but I have it00:43:05
Chinese briefcase I haven't had it for a long time00:43:06
I show everything I have located on him00:43:09
20% of all my funds That's where I am00:43:12
100% purchased. this is where I have it00:43:14
there are investments, well now small00:43:16
right in Russia there is in China I'm in it00:43:19
briefcase for Hong Kong dollars there00:43:21
everything bought00:43:23
remember I did the same last week00:43:26
I looked at issuer reviews wherever I could00:43:28
be interesting too, you and I00:43:30
We were discussing whether to come in or not.00:43:32
I have withdrawal symptoms for him too00:43:35
highlighted that in principle it’s cool00:43:38
positions the company is currently trading here00:43:40
what I have in my briefcase Well then00:43:43
they press furiously, that is, that’s all00:43:46
maybe today today this week00:43:50
that is, in principle they look better00:43:52
market That is, let me remind you that the Bank of China00:43:54
Lenovo Hong Kong Exchange Well, there today00:43:58
take off I say again understand here00:44:01
So I put money on it, like, well00:44:06
because from a fundamental point00:44:08
I see there are cheap companies with00:44:10
growing business and post-Covid effect00:44:12
what should work and moreover there00:44:15
the authorities are doing everything to keep the market for memory00:44:18
Yes, at least that's what I'm talking about there00:44:21
all stamp duties are reduced and so on00:44:22
Further00:44:24
Well, the news this morning00:44:26
they came on which took off. Here they are00:44:31
Chinese authorities in general00:44:33
they are planning to stimulate00:44:35
influx of foreign capital and how00:44:38
and the influx of foreign direct capital into00:44:41
company business and the stock market00:44:44
And for this, as I understand it, they even00:44:46
interest rates will now be revised00:44:49
ownership shares of non-residents Yes in00:44:52
Chinese corporations, that is, we supposedly00:44:55
enlarge This is very cool by the way00:44:59
topic she China used to resist00:45:01
against such things but now it’s like00:45:04
opens the doors I understand the strange00:45:06
capital, that is, you can get more medals00:45:09
own in different businesses that you00:45:11
you want to Well, actually there’s more00:45:13
some benefits of the subsidy program00:45:15
actually stimulating after all for00:45:17
there will be this, but this is where growth is00:45:19
once again there are a lot of right things in00:45:23
economic plan is being done and constant00:45:25
reducing rates stimulating various00:45:27
industries and demand because the population00:45:30
Huge savings are needed now00:45:32
simply push into the economy and00:45:33
stock market what are they trying to do00:45:35
It’s just that all this should have an effect, but it doesn’t00:45:37
here right now but if actually00:45:39
now they will undertake are undertaking00:45:43
will take significant steps to00:45:45
attracting foreign capital00:45:48
Of course this will be another growth driver00:45:49
Nothing00:45:51
your picture what is technical now00:45:54
is in this trend Well, here I am00:45:57
Hong Kong, yes, that is, I have a proxy for00:46:00
Hong Kong, in fact, the companies are all recruited there00:46:02
these beans00:46:04
and so on00:46:06
so far just sideways in essence but listen00:46:10
at the beginning of the year I say again the index has increased00:46:12
plus 10 at the beginning of the year went from 20 to 2200:46:15
in January it opened at 20 and went at 2200:46:18
and from January to today yesterday00:46:22
Yes00:46:23
drop by 22 percent 22 percent from00:46:26
January fell00:46:28
despite the fact that I say the economy is 4.600:46:31
percent grows Production00:46:32
activity is a plus when all over the world00:46:34
she falls at the company's reports all00:46:36
not bad, but here's what it does. You see,00:46:38
What00:46:39
the foreign media are just doing this00:46:42
all the [ __ ] that provokes madness00:46:44
capital flight is everything I say every day00:46:46
you are reading Morgan Stanley shares there in China00:46:49
there or there jeep morgon shares China00:46:53
considers it trash there, conditionally, and so on00:46:55
then these are the headlines every day00:46:57
every day every day therefore00:46:59
investments are running away Well, it’s clear that00:47:01
Geopolitics is here00:47:03
cheap but not just that cheap00:47:06
there are companies compared to American ones00:47:08
three times cheaper00:47:10
but not just the same yes So there are risks00:47:13
some are present because00:47:14
it can't be any other way if00:47:15
Sberbank will be there tomorrow in a week00:47:17
100 rubles means something bad00:47:19
happened and it’s not a fact that you will00:47:21
buy while Sberbank will be 50 so you00:47:23
won't buy it again soon00:47:25
in total Either there will be no money or there will be00:47:27
something that is clearly not up to Sberbank00:47:29
will be Therefore present here too00:47:31
political risks are heating up and of course00:47:34
I see more and more statements every week00:47:39
I constantly quote them to you as it goes00:47:42
something more serious is brewing00:47:46
the trade war is already like this00:47:49
Trump and at one time began to significantly00:47:51
and now she’s getting more and more serious00:47:52
we've had this week00:47:56
summit, well, not what it’s like00:48:03
somewhere the leaders of different countries flew to00:48:07
in generalthis00:48:10
spoke00:48:11
German Foreign Minister Anonina00:48:15
berbak That's how she also called Well00:48:19
she is now like a megaphone there, yes00:48:21
I sent it instead of Scholz00:48:25
stated that the European Union should reduce its00:48:28
dependence on China, that is, games00:48:30
first there00:48:34
Lord, I've already got my last names mixed up00:48:39
Head of the European Union Yes, first of all00:48:42
calls for an investigation to begin there00:48:44
regarding cars we know that00:48:45
Chinese Cars are inundated with them00:48:47
we need to do something now00:48:49
dependent on China but very trade00:48:50
the war is on and it's growing and it's00:48:54
Taiwan's military exercises are intensifying00:48:56
said that we spent the 16th 17th 18th00:49:00
By the way, large-scale China conducted this00:49:03
also seems to add does not add00:49:05
optimism Well, by the way, this week00:49:08
please China also understand00:49:11
endures endures Well, now on iPhones00:49:14
answered yes to American Apple and America00:49:17
Well, actually now there’s another one00:49:19
the answer arrives China stops00:49:21
export products to Western countries00:49:23
from afar and Germany rare earths00:49:26
metals that are used in00:49:28
in particular for the production of chips Well then00:49:30
there is also something they are talking about00:49:32
warned00:49:33
yes yes well no Nickel is mined by these rare00:49:38
land there is generally 80 percent in the world00:49:41
they are mined only in China as far as I remember00:49:43
these are the chosen ones Well, here he is to the West00:49:47
some countries, but I don’t know how it is there00:49:49
American That is, all this can also00:49:51
be the blow the more sense there will be00:49:53
pester China they will write more00:49:55
China the bigger China itself will be00:49:57
answer He is already answering and will, as it were,00:49:59
answer further here as if I understand00:50:00
Therefore, this is all Geopolitics, of course. Well00:50:04
it’s putting pressure on the market, but those measures00:50:07
which make China00:50:09
I think Perry should be relocated.00:50:13
there is, as it were, as they say when there is00:50:15
opportunity to make money no one cares00:50:16
what about all this politics if00:50:18
possible in the moment there in a few months00:50:20
earn Well, some capital there00:50:21
he'll come in and disperse the shares Well00:50:25
Let's see how I understand that00:50:27
24-25 years with China there is still a mess00:50:30
it will begin as if she is because of her the whole world00:50:33
it's crazy but it will start00:50:34
inevitability00:50:36
That's why00:50:39
with China Well, I'm sitting in the shares, so I'm sitting in00:50:43
promotions and news Of course here it is again00:50:44
which arrived on Friday00:50:47
attracting foreign capital Yes it is00:50:50
of course it will be cool it will of course be00:50:52
Cool00:50:53
So you're busy right now, let me do it then00:50:57
further00:50:59
what didn't you say right away?00:51:02
Shanghai Composite was also dismantled, well00:51:07
[ __ ] the most interesting thing with him. Okay, I don’t00:51:11
I want to scare you with horror movies for a long time today00:51:14
and say that everything is there 1 Well, repeat myself00:51:18
I don’t want everything in the world about the same thing00:51:21
bad the world economy is going wrong00:51:25
recession, but in my opinion it’s going to hell. But about00:51:27
no one really talks about this yet00:51:30
this week00:51:31
Yes it was00:51:33
the most important Fed meeting00:51:36
Everything is probably a cycle of rate hikes. Well, here we go.00:51:39
there was a bank meeting this week00:51:40
Britain today Japan all met00:51:42
central banks in September actually00:51:45
I think everyone took a break Yes here we are Well00:51:51
besides Turkish and Russian there00:51:54
Turkey's rate is already 30. Oh well00:51:57
after00:51:58
speeches by the head of the Fed, the market began00:52:01
sold out sold out both on Wednesday and on00:52:04
Thursday into Friday a slight rebound may occur00:52:06
be Well, as long as the rebound continues00:52:08
We'll see00:52:09
Nothing good for the stock market00:52:11
he said that he had hints00:52:13
pretty tough straight tough negative me00:52:16
I would say for the stock market that's why00:52:18
sight there If you rent for a month for 200:52:20
nothing will fundamentally change the message00:52:22
such that if necessary we will raise the rate further00:52:24
this time yes, that is, he at least took a break but00:52:27
don't close the door of black promotion00:52:28
Although there won't be any increase00:52:30
Believe me, he’s gesturing all this on purpose. Well00:52:33
and most importantly, we revised the forecast for00:52:35
deliveries for next year That is there00:52:36
specifically says special rate reduction in00:52:39
next year is also not worth waiting for00:52:40
will decrease there at the end of the year purely00:52:43
symbolically because the forecast for00:52:45
average rate for next year 5.1100:52:46
4,651 views Well, as you understand00:52:48
Now it's five, that is, formally it's00:52:50
there are at most two reductions at the end of the year00:52:52
for now I think everything will be different I think00:52:55
everything will be different in the middle to the middle00:52:58
of the year00:52:59
rates will be reduced confidently and quickly and00:53:03
start my printing press this summer00:53:05
here's the scenario00:53:06
because current rates are so00:53:09
quickly and severely kills the economy, which00:53:11
just a bummer of course against this background00:53:14
started00:53:17
sell both the market and the gangs themselves00:53:21
there's no looming on the horizon00:53:24
rate cuts Well, actually off we go00:53:25
sale Although the reasons for the sale are here00:53:27
after all, now he no longer performs00:53:30
emotional reaction is not fundamental00:53:31
probably the placement of the US Treasury Department. Here it is00:53:35
probably the market is now pressing where where00:53:36
stronger much stronger00:53:39
four and a half percent yield00:53:41
in my opinion they jumped along the entire curve00:53:43
up yes And then the yellow line is what happened00:53:45
a week ago and the Green Line itself00:53:48
what we see almost now is00:53:52
there is now shifted everything to the top00:53:55
border along the entire curve00:53:57
I still don't have an answer Will there be00:54:00
the final look like in 2007 and like in00:54:03
99 and when the increase cycle00:54:06
interest rates have completed all00:54:08
central banks00:54:10
and the actual profitability along the entire curve00:54:14
rose to the rate, this was the case in 2007 and in00:54:18
99 200000:54:20
now as you understand the rate00:54:22
our ten-year-olds are approximately 45 2000:54:25
almost 4 7 years old Well, I say the rate is 5 500:54:27
Short 5 will rise that is Will it00:54:31
even further decline in bonds and00:54:34
Will rate yields accelerate further?00:54:36
once I say in the plane it should come out00:54:39
about the rate00:54:40
no one will answer this question00:54:44
Well, just how do you understand if this00:54:46
will happen Well, this will be Tryndets for00:54:49
economy00:54:50
in the situation where she is now00:54:52
that is, the faster and higher now00:54:54
the bets fly away, the more powerful the landing will be00:54:57
she won't be a soft fella of course everything00:55:00
lies that they have them there yes In the script also00:55:02
there is a soft landing and He hopes for it00:55:04
Of course he understands me perfectly00:55:07
100 times again I express my opinion00:55:10
they all understand perfectly well that00:55:13
What is the situation in the economy?00:55:15
it's clear he's trying to do good00:55:17
a minute when the game is bad it’s understandable00:55:18
it’s clear he doesn’t want to give it now, but if00:55:21
he will tell the truth Well, SNT minus 30 will do00:55:24
So we have to speak normally00:55:26
His goals are as follows: I’ll say it again00:55:28
next year is an election year00:55:30
for the elections it needs to be normal00:55:34
the situation in both the economy and the stock market00:55:38
market with unemployment and inflation00:55:41
and it’s very difficult to do if you pull00:55:45
time and wait until inflation itself00:55:47
it may take a year to settle down and for now00:55:50
you'll be waiting just in time for the elections00:55:52
actually you will get a recession00:55:55
so they take the fast track to my00:55:58
look raise the bet give signals00:56:00
to bring down and give sacrifice and market and00:56:03
economy because the faster the situation00:56:06
will deteriorate sharply and everything will go to hell00:56:10
in a quarter a quarter in two the faster00:56:12
the Fed will have a free hand the sooner00:56:14
you can reduce the rate and launch incentives00:56:16
the market is the market everything is also fast00:56:19
translated by the Federal Reserve We know perfectly well how00:56:20
he quickly changes his shoes 1800:56:23
if they raise the rate then when everything00:56:26
it's starting to crack let's go, here are the cans00:56:27
fell down 400 billion times at once and00:56:30
printed therefore Listen to all this00:56:32
most likely it is logical to do this if00:56:35
democrats need incentives for elections00:56:37
needed00:56:38
then it’s better to really go too far now00:56:41
the bar and let it all go straight to the trash00:56:45
Well, what happens if you take00:56:47
if we take the situation of selling on00:56:51
primary secondary housing market in the USA00:56:53
collapsed to the bottom, the mortgage just stood up00:56:56
at 7 bets at bets seventh no one00:56:59
takes it because well, I say it again00:57:01
mortgage tied to the Far End00:57:03
the curve here is the maximum rates for00:57:05
quarter and mortgage 7.3 all in the USA00:57:07
the mortgage is collapsing00:57:10
banks have a problem, developers have a problem00:57:12
banks and so on begin to default00:57:14
some construction sector00:57:16
lending data released this week00:57:18
according to Fet Well, again the data is published according to00:57:21
lending to the financial system00:57:23
lending just collapses00:57:25
loan arrears are rising, defaults are increasing00:57:28
corporate sector and that's it00:57:30
unfolding accelerate by the way in00:57:32
Europe is the same, well, that is, everything is already00:57:34
Pasha is cracking, now is the time for incentives00:57:37
we need incentives and cheap money and00:57:40
rate they give a signal that we are further More00:57:43
We've finished the nuts and we'll have such bets00:57:45
perhaps for another year By the way, similar00:57:48
the signal was given by the European Bank and00:57:50
British what are the rates all over the world00:57:52
the cycle of rate hikes is completed but with00:57:54
we will have to live with current rates00:57:57
one month and no quarter from six months00:58:00
up to a year00:58:01
what have I read in various press and in00:58:04
in principle, probably a common sentiment00:58:06
there was a negative response to Paulo's statement00:58:09
that the market just fell, I didn’t believe it, I didn’t believe it00:58:12
believed this statement it was read on00:58:14
that there will definitely not be some kind of00:58:16
soft landing just looked00:58:19
forecasts of these futures rates00:58:21
because interest rate risk in America is00:58:24
hedged there are certain00:58:25
tools that do this and again00:58:27
there are even certain00:58:30
distribution in favor of another00:58:31
the rate increase is, well, let's say not 9000:58:35
about 30 percent so far00:58:38
will be for it But the trend is to reduce the rate00:58:41
will only go literally there through00:58:43
a few blocks, that is, the nearest ones00:58:45
two or three blocks while we're here00:58:47
live exactly at these rates and according to00:58:49
about the overall state of the economy you00:58:52
you and I probably know too, Vasya00:58:54
I think it's been said many times that there is00:58:55
such a term How so inflation and now rather00:58:58
just the nearest quarter Fourth00:59:00
quarter around the world we will live here00:59:03
precisely in such a inflationary scenario00:59:05
what will the first quarter of 24 be like?00:59:08
recession or not will it come00:59:11
staffing in recession Well, that's more00:59:13
the worst worst period for the stock market and00:59:18
best period for gold best period00:59:20
for gold by the way00:59:22
deals that I got gold and now00:59:24
I also picked up Tishka’s body00:59:27
My next purchase will probably be this00:59:29
on corporate debt because, well, I00:59:32
I’m getting something in both my personal briefcase and00:59:34
public portfolio I also decided to add00:59:35
this tool is why during the period00:59:38
communicate with you, I’ll add something other than gold00:59:40
Bitcoin tools are also good with00:59:43
fixed income That is, how00:59:45
after all, that’s exactly corporate00:59:47
sovereign debts Therefore, actually in00:59:50
within the framework of this banal theory of you00:59:53
so they go for now we won't talk but I'm with00:59:58
I agree with you that the cue ball also rules01:00:01
I have a big position yes yes well who01:00:05
knows01:00:07
shorts by gangs Yes, or rather Long by01:00:11
gangs and shorts by indices That's it for now01:00:17
they go in one direction for now but in01:00:19
at some point they must at different01:00:21
hand to go well at some point it01:00:24
will happen01:00:25
here it is in 2007, the rate was 525 Once again01:00:29
Well, actually, here is the Fed rate in the USA Well01:00:33
and the yield has flown there to 525 now01:00:36
the rate is generally 501:00:37
Will we fly away on 5 5 I doubt it But here we are01:00:47
Why do I doubt01:00:49
[music]01:00:51
Well, there is reason to believe that not01:00:55
will withstand markets and the financial system and01:00:57
banks01:01:00
But what about all these Armageddon articles?01:01:03
that the current crisis should be worse01:01:05
than a crisis No, I see01:01:09
this terrible crisis can be expressed01:01:11
if not in collapse if not in growth01:01:14
return 10 years Irish we will see01:01:16
ten years 7 8 9 10 percent and rate01:01:20
in the USA through one more maneuver after one01:01:24
I explained the cycle I explained it in the video01:01:27
which reruns of the 70s they will come01:01:30
for the same rake a little later Now I'm here01:01:32
Well, I’ll try to explain my points again01:01:34
thoughts and this moment is completely separate01:01:38
roller shoot the wire collapse of the dollar because01:01:40
what's here01:01:41
Well, there’s no rush here, I’ll say it again01:01:44
what do you take it off now what now01:01:46
processes that will be all just01:01:49
24 25 26 years and the most interesting thing is therefore01:01:54
I’ll take it off here too now or there in01:01:56
December01:01:58
Yes, now everything is fine with the dollar and01:02:01
this year and next will be fine01:02:03
Here are the processes starting next year only01:02:07
will start to gain momentum by the way now01:02:09
maybe with Alexander Kubyshkin01:02:11
We'll record the interview and just discuss it01:02:13
together about these processes because01:02:15
Well, it’s hard to predict now what will happen01:02:17
I won’t look like the finale myself01:02:20
watch the final01:02:23
no understanding he too I watch him01:02:25
videos where he also discusses with different01:02:27
people there remember me my position in01:02:29
230 percent I still want to explain to us 23501:02:32
percent is 135 percent of America's shorts01:02:34
indexes and short by 130 percent01:02:37
America indexes 105 percent Long01:02:39
bonds total position 23001:02:42
relative to the portfolio it is not so01:02:44
risky she is not in my direction now01:02:47
By the way, I moved away this week. Well01:02:50
ok she fluctuates between two and three01:02:52
percent plus or minus the score fluctuates01:02:54
just on all these movements in01:02:56
at some point01:02:57
no matter what it is often very01:02:59
no plus some will remain in place01:03:01
there can be two parts at the same time01:03:02
plus this would be the ideal scenario I01:03:05
I don’t know and he doesn’t know They also think Well01:03:08
kind of, but it's hard Yes, I'm right, that is01:03:11
logically This is very cool correct01:03:13
position and one can say without risk01:03:16
almost01:03:17
but at what point in time After how long01:03:20
will be worked out completely or partially01:03:22
it will be hard to say01:03:24
like the seventh year there is acceleration here01:03:27
final Yes if it is snp 4 already01:03:30
will01:03:33
it's clear I'm not in this position01:03:36
It’s unlikely that gangs will make money, they’ll fall there too01:03:38
15 percent more give another 1501:03:42
they ask there, well, America for another 15th index01:03:45
will fall01:03:48
we just passed here to speed up01:03:52
in theory, the game is a spread of two years itself01:03:54
will diverge diverge it may01:03:56
due only to the growth of distant bonds01:03:58
in theory in theory And at some point01:04:00
the risk of and in the market just begins01:04:03
the economy is bad01:04:06
if you want capital, they’ll run here themselves, but01:04:08
here even Why I'm not sure Well again01:04:11
banks know very well01:04:14
that there will be an increase in profitability to five01:04:16
what will the final acceleration be like?01:04:19
final sale today01:04:22
Well, yesterday, that was the final, well01:04:25
yesterday there was a long fall and on Thursday too01:04:28
this is exactly what caused the fall01:04:29
American index by two percent01:04:31
against the backdrop of rising yields there are 4.6 in general01:04:34
along the Far And tonight in01:04:37
Bloomberg comes out with an interesting article01:04:38
Why is the US Treasury considering it?01:04:44
options01:04:47
to stabilize support for01:04:49
stabilization of liquidity and support01:04:50
markets for a long time and consider options01:04:52
entering the market with purchases01:04:57
I understand how you like that, they have a resource01:05:01
to control01:05:03
The Ministry of Finance is now putting pressure, that is,01:05:06
It would seem how is this even possible?01:05:09
you have a budget deficit of 8 percent, that is01:05:11
two merged two and a half trillion he01:05:13
Every year you have to do something to perform01:05:15
there will probably be 301:05:16
The Ministry of Finance covers it all, it takes01:05:19
long market place bonds He01:05:21
sells bonds withdraws money and here01:05:24
he says that I will go out on my own01:05:26
buy next year01:05:30
this happened 15-20 years ago this happened01:05:33
again, don’t forget about Fedo’s capabilities01:05:37
I don’t rule out that by the way, maybe they01:05:39
they will still launch an analogue of the Twist program01:05:41
They don’t really have any other options either01:05:43
the Fed will start selling short01:05:46
bonds and buy distant ones he needs01:05:50
bring down profitability at this end01:05:53
curve it lower there because01:05:56
that all the mortgage money is all tied to01:05:59
further01:06:00
Well, yes, well, you can’t get rid of inversion01:06:04
will strengthen the short end of nowhere private01:06:07
money rates are tied but in the distance01:06:10
end Yes, you can have short bonds there01:06:13
sell balance and then buy01:06:17
I distort the inversion even more, you can01:06:19
there may be such a thing, but they don’t need it01:06:22
here you see next year01:06:25
refinancing from the Ministry of Finance 8 trillion01:06:28
need to refinance next year01:06:30
long 8 trillion net and need to be borrowed01:06:32
it will be more than two trillion 801:06:36
refinance just you think they01:06:39
want to refinance theirs under 5.501:06:41
occupy01:06:42
33 trillion by the way the debt has already hit 3301:06:45
trillion percent is already over a trillion01:06:48
they simply transfer interest on the debt01:06:50
do you think they want no01:06:53
they want to do everything possible to01:06:55
here we go again to zero rates01:06:58
under zero occupier about zero under one01:07:00
under two This is not my task Here I am too01:07:04
I took a bet on this, my head doesn't hurt01:07:06
their head hurts, I understand what’s wrong with them01:07:08
next year I don't know what should happen next year01:07:10
world happen I don't know what they are01:07:13
they'll come up with something, maybe they'll launch a printed one01:07:15
the machine can be accelerated, anything but01:07:18
That's why their head should hurt01:07:20
that all that the Ministry of Finance took this year was01:07:22
took almost a year01:07:24
and next year he won’t make 8 trillion01:07:27
wants to borrow at five percent01:07:29
damn how expensive how expensive and01:07:31
the economy can't stand it, everyone's standing up01:07:33
mortgages loans everything collapses Under this01:07:35
rates in the economy everything is collapsing therefore01:07:38
these rates won't last long01:07:40
Bluff Paul said that the average rates01:07:42
year 5.1 that is, a decrease at the end of the year01:07:45
at most half a percent we are lying01:07:48
we'll see the rate is already 3 percent, God forbid there01:07:50
by the middle of the year probably and maybe01:07:52
0 we'll see Everything can be simple during Covid01:07:54
they took it, well, I don’t know what I’ll call it01:07:58
it will be called 4000 with steppe video we will01:08:03
write We have an agreement 3,50001:08:06
or 4 Stepa if we reach 3 again01:08:13
So for now I’m sitting there, plus or minus, well01:08:17
nothing changes fundamentally but01:08:19
this week from these movements by the way01:08:21
in any case, the shares fell 3G fell But01:08:24
because I have this spread for what01:08:27
stocks are overvalued relative to bonds01:08:29
he began to revaluate shares after these01:08:31
weekly movements became even stronger then01:08:34
there are shares that have become even more overvalued01:08:36
regarding bonds01:08:39
because damn gangs01:08:43
Yes, with banks, you understand that with01:08:46
banks in the USA were falling in, that is, the problem is01:08:49
than they are literally a block away from us01:08:51
they also discuss the egg pods in a quarter01:08:53
somewhere Well, they'll just crap the double number01:08:55
two will start another stress01:08:58
financial sector is about to be because01:09:01
delinquencies are breaking records, defaults are breaking01:09:03
records are already positive for the month of September01:09:06
begins to pay for student courts01:09:08
and damn now I’ll tell you the numbers. Holy [ __ ]01:09:11
on student courts01:09:17
Come on, then we’ll have an agreement there01:09:19
budget and when01:09:25
in short 9 billion dollars new01:09:29
the record will be here is the fee now01:09:31
to student courts within 21 working days01:09:33
here in the USA01:09:36
from 1501:09:39
September in total 21 working days before01:09:42
payment amount will be with strange farms01:09:45
students $9 billion01:09:48
cumulative01:09:51
percentage of Americans' spending on it01:09:54
Mortgage debt will set a new record01:09:57
breaking through a maximum of 47 percent which01:09:59
were recorded in the 80s01:10:03
Well, well, screw it, well, of course they’re still collapsing01:10:07
since I say now all the stores01:10:09
airports are already being used everywhere, demand is falling01:10:11
absolutely everywhere restaurants shops and01:10:13
so on now this debt load01:10:15
because of the high stakes, that's what I say01:10:17
will hit the consumer very hard01:10:19
most of course go for restoration01:10:22
already and so on That is, delays01:10:23
defaults are a blow to banks actually01:10:26
when the banks are hit at the bank01:10:28
everything is not good and how it is now01:10:31
these latest credits came out01:10:33
it's collapsing, it's about to begin01:10:36
The banks are having problems and I'm afraid they'll start01:10:39
more than some other large banks01:10:41
the problem of larger banks appearing01:10:43
and just for them01:10:47
This is the real collateral01:10:50
asset That is, when people01:10:53
brought money Yes, when the bets were01:10:56
there about zero 19 20 21 years again01:11:00
all the banks placed all this all these01:11:03
money in assets to earn01:11:04
some kind of profitability at the far end where01:11:07
there was profitability Well, actually everyone01:11:09
dollar invested in nineteen01:11:11
twenty twenty-one now01:11:13
turned into 50 cents01:11:16
and if I again there will be an influx of investors01:11:20
if some bank suddenly has a01:11:23
the problem is more or less large we will see01:11:24
panic again Flight of investors01:11:27
banks don't have this money They won't be able to01:11:30
pay the warehousers because here01:11:32
what the banks invested in now it's worth01:11:35
exactly half so moreover you01:11:37
look at the profitability than speech Therefore01:11:40
allow the Ministry of Finance01:11:43
A situation that will threaten banks01:11:46
even stronger01:11:48
Well, somehow I don’t know, I just don’t01:11:51
collect the cards, you just understand01:11:53
economics is this house of cards01:11:54
everything is on credit just everything to see01:11:56
just on profitability in the middle of summer01:11:58
When there will be a crisis even in the spring01:12:00
yields were lower and we discussed and01:12:02
showed you also the graphs that Which01:12:05
Here is the paper loss for banks due to01:12:07
that01:12:08
Treasuries became cheaper loss01:12:13
And now the paper loss is even greater01:12:16
now about half well01:12:19
How about every dollar invested?01:12:21
turned into 50 percent How much 5001:12:24
percent distant01:12:26
and now we have And since I say what01:12:30
what's happening in the economy is a blow to01:12:33
to banks And banks actually have collateral01:12:35
the tools have depreciated but somehow01:12:37
if some larger ones wouldn't grunt01:12:39
Now01:12:42
very difficult to taxi of course01:12:46
In the current situation it is very difficult by the way01:12:49
global debt this week reached01:12:51
new Record Who doesn't know 30701:12:53
trillions of dollars just think about it01:12:55
Can you imagine the figure of 307 trillion when01:12:58
this bubble will burst the world until this happens01:13:01
I've never seen a bubble before01:13:05
so not me, just me, my script myself01:13:10
realistic what relative to mine01:13:12
rates Yes, for now we see that Than01:13:14
the more the gangs sell out the more01:13:15
the market is selling out, so my bet is not01:13:17
works I don't earn anything01:13:19
I don’t really lose or earn much, but01:13:21
at some point01:13:23
most likely it will come Well weeks01:13:25
in two three four but in October it will be01:13:27
we just need a turning point01:13:29
Trigger for stock fall That is how01:13:33
only the situation in the economy will begin01:13:35
worsen more seriously as soon as01:13:37
companies will start reporting here from01:13:40
October new reporting season and will begin01:13:41
report sucks and everyone will understand that01:13:44
corporate earnings are falling and falling and01:13:46
prospects and the weaker the data on01:13:51
the US economy the more it will be01:13:55
Hello the better it will be for the market01:13:58
bonds and worse for the stock market and now01:14:02
Then01:14:03
Short will start making profit01:14:05
at the same time the demand for01:14:08
we just need three houses01:14:11
the real deterioration in the economy is01:14:13
it's happening, it's not happening, it's happening, but01:14:17
I don't have that stress yet01:14:20
I'll share my investor bet01:14:21
because I also buy more01:14:24
fund for01:14:27
from vangarda and plus I bet on gold01:14:31
on Bitcoin but also I just01:14:34
there is some consolidation of the dollar and01:14:37
in fact you have because01:14:40
dollar is also information today01:14:44
I just want to say that for investors01:14:46
If you don't want to short there is also01:14:49
alternative methods are gold01:14:51
also the market is long the corporate market01:14:53
long america and just consolidation01:14:56
money in dollars to purchase01:14:59
after all, the American market will come01:15:02
ever correction was liquidity01:15:04
for these purchases01:15:10
damn well01:15:11
that you place your bets01:15:14
sharing I'm just sharing my bets01:15:19
we come back too this is a bet I said01:15:21
that a reversal will begin in the fall Well, here it is01:15:24
the reversal begins Yes we are now for now01:15:26
another minus01:15:27
67 basis points yes that is between01:15:31
two-year-olds and ten-year-olds and the difference is01:15:35
0.670 years and two years01:15:37
How many two year olds do we have 401:15:41
80 years of two-year-old01:15:44
more Well, in short, minus on Thursday I01:15:48
made -67 difference in profitability between01:15:51
for two-year-olds and ten-year-olds it was minus 6701:15:54
we I understand that I’m saying it again01:15:57
only this one will start hiding01:15:58
turn up from inversion01:16:00
Well, the market will crumble and turn around01:16:04
he Well, always at the beginning and not at the beginning for01:16:10
far-end yield growth account01:16:12
curve it is clear that we must reach zero01:16:15
come Now, if now two-year-olds are 501:16:17
conditionally from ten years old there conditionally there01:16:19
four and a half, that's if they're ten years old01:16:21
to five percent goes we get 001:16:22
for the market this is a kick-ass blow Well, actually01:16:25
if the ten year olds go higher01:16:28
then in this then for the market it’s even more01:16:31
a big blow if the bets don't go01:16:33
so the flight will begin there, short01:16:34
end By the way, what is he saying?01:16:37
that in the current situation, yes, he is better01:16:41
Not01:16:43
long-distance buy but we simply don’t have it01:16:45
instruments on the St. Petersburg exchange Yes, these01:16:48
no funds launched01:16:51
short bonds short bonds01:16:53
most likely to win back That is, as soon as01:16:55
the economic situation is deteriorating and the market01:16:57
starts to paint01:16:59
there is a future rate reduction then01:17:01
may react to this more01:17:04
sharply short bonds01:17:07
hard to say hard to say situation01:17:10
of course anomalous and we have a story01:17:14
we can watch everything but just with01:17:17
taking into account the current budget deficit and01:17:18
current01:17:19
actual borrowings from the Ministry of Finance and so on01:17:22
then the situation is extremely normal01:17:24
talk about how to compare the situation in 200001:17:27
when the USA had a national debt of a trillion Yes01:17:29
Sorry now 33 trillion and trillion01:17:32
now only interest on the national debt Well01:17:34
Sorry, there's a hole in the budget two and a half01:17:37
trillion Well, slightly different things01:17:39
so it's a lot of maneuvering here01:17:41
It’s a bit heavy and the Ministry of Finance’s reserves are generous01:17:44
it's a joke Well, spread about it01:17:47
disperse Clearly up markets01:17:48
they'll fall down as if it's all here01:17:50
at the end of the year everything will happen, you will see that01:17:51
here the spread question is like and Well, it’s clear that01:17:55
so far due to the growth in profitability of distant01:17:57
at the far end Next he will be01:17:58
diverge due to falling profitability01:18:00
at the Near end it’s all clear Well01:18:02
now, look, it’s a turning point01:18:05
moment in the markets Yes, this is the week01:18:07
one of the - Well, so far this week which01:18:09
The worst year for world markets ended01:18:11
this year is the worst really01:18:15
and in fact what happened this week01:18:19
all central banks in fact01:18:22
took a break and gave hints01:18:25
that the cycle of increasing interest rates01:18:28
completed something that was also discussed a lot during the cycle01:18:32
the markets are not reacting, everyone in the markets01:18:34
All the negativity starts in the economy01:18:36
when central banks start01:18:38
take a break and then there will be this pause01:18:41
last the longer it lasts the01:18:43
the markets will fall more because01:18:44
Economies don’t live at these rates01:18:48
and the markets will fall until01:18:50
central banks will not start cutting01:18:52
rates01:18:54
and when they start the markets will continue01:18:56
fall because they will reduce01:18:58
So slow01:19:00
this test is funny and this is the week01:19:04
when everything everywhere is on pause anymore01:19:08
no one raised the rates higher or01:19:10
increases01:19:11
and the markets begin to turn around01:19:15
telti if that's just yes who holds I01:19:18
I know a lot, I’m sitting, but I’m already sitting in timef01:19:21
with leverage just a smaller volume of us01:19:23
shoulder but position again I say count01:19:24
that I was sweating like position 10501:19:26
percent by tlt35 relative to something01:19:30
90 yesterday almost touched there today01:19:34
92 93 somewhere we jump a little bit even yes01:19:36
today, by the way, today, by the way01:19:38
nice day the gang are growing a little01:19:42
the markets may even be going well again01:19:45
OK01:19:46
yesterday almost 90 reached 9190 touched but01:19:50
look at rates in 200701:19:53
The Fed rate was 525 and the telti flew to01:19:57
100 bonds all sorts of things flew away to 525 Yes01:20:01
Well, TLT was back then in 2007, right here01:20:05
the very bottom This is the very bottom when everything01:20:08
long-term bonds 20 years 3001:20:10
45-25 years old flew away to Telti was somewhere on01:20:15
mark 8283 That is, if we01:20:19
Let's plan for the worst case scenario01:20:21
not even 5.5, becoming at least 5 or 52501:20:23
at least here is the potential for a fall even before01:20:27
TLT has 10 percent01:20:31
tmf has a corresponding fall rate01:20:34
potential drop of 30 percent is necessary01:20:36
keep in mind But if of course this01:20:39
will happen but then SMP still has a percentage01:20:41
20 will also fall 15 20 by 20 cm 1501:20:45
let's say01:20:47
Well, whether it will happen or not, well, I have it01:20:50
no answer I speak from intuition I understand01:20:53
that I just see how simple everything is01:20:56
you understand how the whole economy is simple01:20:58
here she is01:20:59
here it is, it's like the Truck that01:21:02
moves at good speed into the wall01:21:05
no brakes they refused01:21:09
AND01:21:11
this is how it all looks now01:21:17
and just if he makes the situation worse01:21:19
a little faster now but he's just faster01:21:21
will reach this wall and perhaps with more01:21:24
I don’t know if they need this speed or not01:21:27
I don’t know the situation is stalemate but it’s not01:21:31
as patta as it will be just later01:21:32
we'll get to this one a little later01:21:36
week of course it all happened together01:21:38
we were passed by on the Tendel and saw for ourselves01:21:39
expiration is essentially on Friday after that01:21:42
sales have started now Pavel Scared Well01:21:45
Of course, the Ministry of Finance this week too01:21:48
took a record amount by his standards01:21:49
almost 130 billion dollars here01:21:53
you can clearly see the balance sheet of the Ministry of Finance01:21:55
jumped almost 675 billion01:21:58
Well, the funny thing is that from the opposite01:22:01
ripa, all 30 went in the last week01:22:03
billion that is 30 billion of01:22:05
money market funds have been shipped to the Ministry of Finance01:22:07
And he pulled out 100 billion straight from01:22:09
systems01:22:10
Plus, by the way, on Thursday I read Screen01:22:13
Friday morning update happens Yes01:22:15
here is the balance sheet of the Ministry of Finance a little01:22:17
I also asked for 70 billion for almost01:22:20
a week there or repayment or something01:22:21
he had some events there, well01:22:23
significant that is this week and01:22:25
The Ministry of Finance, together with the Federal Reserve System, seized them clean from01:22:30
economy under almost 170 billion01:22:32
dollars and you just see what's on01:22:34
markets immediately that in the markets Ministry of Finance01:22:37
Of course, as you understand, he first confiscates01:22:39
then withdraws money into the economy01:22:40
actually gives Yes for such as the budget01:22:43
financing Through banks and so on01:22:45
so when it finally comes01:22:47
significant aggressive loans and they01:22:50
come conditionally not from the reverse turnip as01:22:52
before Yes, but already straight from the market01:22:54
the system withdraws liquidity then01:22:56
failure is something that, by the way, I don’t01:22:59
took into account Yes at the very beginning When in June01:23:01
I was glad that the Ministry of Finance would come out01:23:03
that Kubyshkin corrected me at the time01:23:05
what doesn't take you into account is just money01:23:07
which are for reverse repo which are not in01:23:10
system, this money is on the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve System01:23:12
but they are not listed in the system they are not there01:23:16
sterilized money And when the Ministry of Finance01:23:20
places bonds in a money fund01:23:23
market they are bought then these sterilized01:23:25
money that the system appears on01:23:27
balance sheet of the Ministry of Finance and then it gives them01:23:28
the system actually appears this way01:23:30
on the contrary, there will be liquidity01:23:32
support markets01:23:35
It’s as if I didn’t take this into account, but I didn’t think01:23:38
that he will succeed01:23:44
from Well, there’s a trillion to upload there, or even01:23:47
one and a half, that is, here it was at its peak01:23:49
reverse report 2 and 4 trillion now 101:23:52
and almost 4 trillion01:23:55
uploaded because I corrected it then01:23:58
Sasha said that01:23:59
[music]01:24:02
money market funds are not eligible01:24:04
buy bonds according to your charter01:24:07
rip off with a duration of over a year01:24:11
and I thought that I didn't even imagine that01:24:14
Ministry of Finance in general the entire volume Damn everything01:24:16
will borrow his trillions for a year01:24:19
It turns out that almost all of him is like this01:24:21
volume for the year and takes01:24:23
This is what I didn’t think about at all01:24:25
And even the Ministry of Finance has no such plans01:24:27
was01:24:29
but the situation turns out like this01:24:32
What01:24:34
there is no one else in the world to borrow from now01:24:38
attention I'm right, focus this01:24:42
what will the issues about the dollar and themselves be about?01:24:45
think about what will happen in the next year or two01:24:47
further01:24:51
You have a budget deficit in America01:24:54
Let's say now he's there with a little over two01:24:57
trillion 22 and 3 even up to01:25:00
will accelerate to two and five now01:25:03
September financial year ends at01:25:05
next year it will be 2.5-3 trillion yes01:25:08
will Let's take on average for01:25:09
the last ones there, well, two and a half01:25:11
trillion these two sleeping trillion01:25:13
need to get it somewhere01:25:15
your budget income is falling01:25:18
are growing and plus interest on debt01:25:20
services are also growing, which are already01:25:22
trillions is what you need per year01:25:24
occupy somewhere01:25:26
someone01:25:27
two and a half01:25:34
and if there is no one to borrow from01:25:39
as we understand until recently everyone01:25:43
events that occurred after01:25:46
largest holders of US debt01:25:48
were China Japan01:25:52
The Arab world sold petrodollars and01:25:56
bought01:25:59
Now01:26:00
The lion's share and half the world refused01:26:05
from buying American01:26:08
750 billion of them are already sold in China01:26:12
left Japan forced to sell01:26:15
because she needs to interview her01:26:18
currency yen which is collapsing01:26:20
Arabs are all for sale board Arabia is already up01:26:24
reduced minimum levels01:26:26
practically no one in the world except01:26:30
Britain Taiwan and some other countries01:26:33
Europe doesn't want to give America more01:26:37
duty to buy her treasuries But even01:26:40
Let's Okay, even if they want to but01:26:43
agree such volumes01:26:45
per trillion 2 2 and a half01:26:48
physically not present Even if all countries are still01:26:51
the neighbors are these G7 even if they want01:26:56
buy out all placements that the Ministry of Finance01:26:59
we need to attract that kind of money, they all01:27:01
they won’t gather there together, God forbid they will01:27:02
200-300 billion per year01:27:06
but without such major powers01:27:09
won't borrow that kind of money01:27:12
It’s a bit difficult, it’s impossible right now, the Ministry of Finance01:27:15
holds auctions01:27:17
borrowing for 10 years01:27:19
in which funds cannot participate01:27:22
money market because from the reverse01:27:24
repo they can only make money in the short term01:27:26
debt to invest in a year and what I don't01:27:30
I'm failing I'm not failing no01:27:33
demand Well, just like our Ministry of Finance now01:27:36
Russian Federation right now01:27:38
permanent coupon will also fail no01:27:40
demand and we are now also cut off Here we are01:27:43
now it’s like Russia, it’s America01:27:44
almost in the same situation Well s01:27:46
taken into account but she's not cut off she's just01:27:48
quarreled with many countries that's why01:27:50
now there is a majority in its placements01:27:52
countries simply do not participate and do not buy01:27:54
debt situation is like now in Russia01:27:57
only our Ministry of Finance was simply cut off01:27:59
they can't occupy university students01:28:01
therefore the columns are taken from ours01:28:04
banks' main creditors are those01:28:06
our banks01:28:09
which01:28:12
good profitability with a guarantee can01:28:14
do not buy OFZ with a floating coupon01:28:18
want to understand the risks01:28:22
and actually how much money is left01:28:24
here in the reverse repost there is one and a half left01:28:26
trillion was two and four that is01:28:28
speed01:28:29
We see perfectly well that they migrate01:28:31
per day to the accounts of the Ministry of Finance Ministry of Finance01:28:33
actually then gradually throws it into01:28:36
economy01:28:40
in 2-3 blocks01:28:42
As I understand it, gradually from the opposite01:28:45
repo01:28:46
will transfer all the money from the account itself01:28:49
Ministry of Finance01:28:50
he needs 2 trillion now [ __ ]01:28:52
it takes another six months, well, actually01:28:55
you can't occupy the distant one because01:28:57
there and no one gives and the pressure is on you01:29:01
the percentage on profitability is growing01:29:04
only takes a year options here01:29:07
pump these remaining one and a half01:29:08
trillion And when will they end?01:29:12
in a year by summer next year01:29:17
you have a trillion 2345 when it ends Well01:29:22
borrowed now a trillion01:29:25
on your own on your own01:29:28
what will happen next01:29:32
in the world on foreign markets you don’t have that much01:29:35
they'll let so much go unnoticed01:29:36
not if you collapse the Eurozone of course01:29:42
Maybe I should do it this way I don't know01:29:46
But by next year there are options01:29:49
other than starting the printing press01:29:52
No01:29:55
Well, no, well, just no. Discuss with Sasha01:29:59
I'm interested in the possibility of the collapse of the eurozone01:30:05
you'll run out of internal here01:30:07
reserves very soon Yes of course from banks01:30:09
there is still cache Yes, total 3 trillion01:30:12
but don't forget this is a little different01:30:14
money they can't all go to gangs and01:30:18
again the banks are having such failures now01:30:20
will begin01:30:22
when the economy starts to settle here too01:30:25
the balance of the hole will begin to melt and plug01:30:27
have to01:30:28
norm, norm, all the requirements are there01:30:31
the bank will increase reserves and so on01:30:33
then you have time, but how much01:30:37
for 23 blocks yes01:30:41
That's why01:30:43
printing press01:30:45
so that Pavel doesn’t tell us01:30:48
you will inevitably run because01:30:51
in the world you can't do more than that amount01:30:54
borrow so that your economy is simple01:30:56
existed01:30:57
and the joke itself is that let’s imagine01:31:01
hypothetically01:31:03
in three blocks01:31:06
Let inflation be quite01:31:08
high there three and a half percent is not01:31:10
five there is not 4 maybe three and a half01:31:12
4 oil per hundred01:31:15
and America starts the printing press on01:31:17
trillion by 201:31:21
dollar will go down, commodity assets are going down01:31:24
top inflation from 3.5 4 maybe 5 6 701:31:29
801:31:31
and you have nowhere to go again01:31:34
Well, you’ll declare a default or something, but no01:31:36
I'm not defaulting, let's go to our minds01:31:38
ruin01:31:41
but from a mathematical point of view this is not so01:31:44
there's a lot left01:31:50
worldwide demand for this cache has been undermined01:31:53
and as I leave again I say this01:31:56
the dollars haven't gone anywhere Swift says it like01:31:58
payments in percentage were and were01:32:00
friends Well let's ignore it01:32:03
half of all transactions there are not even two01:32:06
thirds of the Brix countries' transactions Sorry01:32:10
that's 55 percent of global GDP Now01:32:12
why should I find reference takes into account01:32:15
trade turnover between China and the Arabs there01:32:18
China and this font is still there01:32:22
yuan share of yuan in international turnover 201:32:25
percent Well, let them just think so01:32:28
these We are through Swift ours01:32:31
trade turnover is with China no01:32:34
Arabs, what is there through the drain or something?01:32:36
therefore does not take into account01:32:42
but when01:32:45
Europeans buy gas from Arabs01:32:50
in Chinese01:32:52
commodity exchange for yuan01:32:56
like this summer01:32:59
you say that there is no undermining of the dollar?01:33:03
Well, the Ministry of Finance once again says not to borrow01:33:06
maybe for 10 years no one01:33:12
all duty you are against01:33:16
half the globe no longer wants01:33:18
paint01:33:20
and those who can and want, well, those themselves01:33:23
economic problems in Japan and Britain01:33:26
Europe01:33:29
and so that you still have a debt No, it will start now01:33:32
the problem is now the dollar will start to rise01:33:35
all currencies and everyone will sell01:33:37
forced even more to01:33:39
interventions with their currencies01:33:41
cope with01:33:45
but in two or three blocks when it ends01:33:47
the opposite will of course be interesting01:33:49
further as you understand if01:33:51
extrapolates all this further if you want01:33:53
service your debt at high01:33:55
percentage only print and redeem at01:33:59
myself01:34:02
actually this will all accelerate01:34:04
inflation will all raise rates01:34:08
service rates Interest will increase01:34:10
according to debt will grow and this closed01:34:12
circle it's not it won't be possible01:34:13
break01:34:15
But if you print two trillion01:34:17
per year it’s normal if three and then 4 501:34:20
6 7 Well, yes gold 5000 oil 200 dollars01:34:27
dxwi can be instead of 550 501:34:31
maybe this could be this could be this01:34:34
that's why the rates are yes next year01:34:37
should roll back down01:34:39
and then we will see a secondary jump and01:34:42
inflation delivery has not been shown already01:34:44
this is a picture of forecasts and not mine01:34:47
26 years 27 what are the rates for the Fit fund01:34:50
Fed insert01:34:53
should fly away in 10 10 11 12 1501:35:02
this is interesting and cool01:35:10
the last one maybe five years you know01:35:13
about the sunset there01:35:16
hegemons and empires Yes, the European Union and01:35:20
American dollar system built01:35:22
On him01:35:24
Well, I’m just saying everything that happened01:35:27
now and what is the situation now but I01:35:29
I say it can be hard I can do something01:35:31
I won somehow, I’ll explain it wrong Well, sort of01:35:36
understand what it is01:35:41
the world's largest creditors are no longer yours01:35:43
creditors01:35:45
and those who are also your neighbors and friends01:35:48
they have no money01:35:49
That's why you, like the Japan Fed, will close yourself off01:35:53
Soon I will ask myself what will happen to the dollar and01:35:56
with all active nominated in01:35:58
dollars at the printing press and mission01:36:02
maybe we'll see oil at 200 and the ruble01:36:05
40 each Well now let's have a clean laugh yes01:36:09
Depends on how much the dollar will bring down the system01:36:12
if we print 10 million a year we will see01:36:15
Why not01:36:18
we'll see01:36:20
Come on next01:36:24
I just understand what’s scary01:36:28
When will there be a deadlock in America?01:36:31
because the worse it is for America, the worse it is for everything01:36:34
there is nothing for the world to rejoice here, that's all you01:36:36
there is no joy here We are completely done01:36:39
Deadlock situation I'm afraid that in the world well01:36:41
how would I say default war01:36:45
Covid I don’t know what to think of but01:36:49
something in twenty-four01:36:51
once again Leap Year is clearly something01:36:53
will give us okay01:36:57
you and your appetite for risk, I have01:37:00
with mine, but nevertheless I believe that01:37:03
very healthy and risk appetite here01:37:06
just essentially a question Listen, really01:37:09
15 how many since the eighth year how many years01:37:11
passed in the world there was no financial01:37:12
crisis The twentieth year is not a crisis01:37:15
not a crisis for the quarter, just a damn crisis01:37:19
very fast because this has never happened before01:37:22
never happened before01:37:25
plus we also forget, look, yeah01:37:29
Regional banks are faltering in America01:37:31
Yes, and quite significantly01:37:33
Fed crap all over even 400 billion01:37:36
poured out the system printed although although01:37:39
prayed and took the money01:37:41
but the banks there seem to be cracking nothing01:37:47
maybe this could happen01:37:50
so that a similar situation does not happen01:37:53
European financial sector01:37:55
now he can't01:38:00
whistle Come on, I'm talking about others about01:38:04
European all sorts of commerce, damn it01:38:06
in the same place there has been crap on the balance sheet for a long time01:38:08
there's a hole there for who knows how long01:38:11
that is, right here01:38:14
when Why Yes, this doesn’t come out01:38:16
the surface still surprises me01:38:18
just overdue defaults in Europe now01:38:21
just gigantic Why are these banks up01:38:24
I still haven’t heard about their problems and01:38:27
it's just that it will happen soon too01:38:30
Soon too01:38:34
the financial system is very01:38:35
derivative instruments is what it is01:38:39
we are now taking place01:38:41
good evening let them grow01:38:45
Here it is spread a little in my direction01:38:47
goes away at some point it must be01:38:50
the same thing only stocks fall bonds01:38:52
it's all just a risk to grow01:38:55
this panic must be against the background of something01:38:57
really bad then then here's mine01:38:59
the bet will work01:39:01
okay And of course that's what we're talking about too01:39:04
they said the main driver of growth01:39:06
American market over the last 15 years01:39:08
these are bikes, you know this very well01:39:11
buy-back companies buy back their own01:39:13
shares are the main one here at 9001:39:16
percent the American market is growing01:39:18
that's all01:39:20
and for some companies We are great01:39:22
you don’t care what cartoons01:39:25
buy And of course, as01:39:28
the economy is cooling at such rates01:39:30
money becomes expensive to borrow01:39:32
money is now Apple and all sorts of Apple [ __ ]01:39:34
Damn, more precisely, no more buybacks01:39:37
they will, otherwise he spent a year on buyback01:39:39
more than he generally earned for01:39:41
he used to take a year below zero01:39:43
place a bet and let it go on buyback01:39:44
The debt load under01:39:46
such bets companies borrow money01:39:48
they won't be that much anymore01:39:50
earn how much they spent buybacks01:39:52
Well, now there’s actually profit too01:39:54
everyone will go down, they go and they will go down again01:39:58
stronger I have already reported to you on the results01:40:01
last reporting season according to its01:40:02
results Well, actually, we see a decline01:40:05
now it's about a buyback quarter01:40:07
quarter of the year by almost 20% already 175 billion01:40:10
dollars Well then it will be 150 12501:40:12
further it will be less this is the main driver01:40:16
growth and support of American01:40:18
stock market it too about it too01:40:20
you can forget about him too01:40:23
forget01:40:24
Well, in the end, just slides01:40:28
Let's Friday at 4 300 Let's01:40:32
evening gift creature01:40:36
Well, with us it’s so formal, of course01:40:38
the uptrend broke through until the target was well01:40:40
we're tired of waiting for the whole game01:40:42
a breakdown of 15 thousand will be needed according to the index01:40:44
Yes, not for futures. Well, they basically broke through01:40:47
close the day and week below here01:40:50
breakdown of the level AND during the upward trend01:40:53
channel Well, the first goals are 13,000, that is01:40:56
not so much but the first goals are further01:40:58
we'll see Well, it's a week if01:41:01
close like we can we can I01:41:04
said01:41:06
who will be good anyway listen01:41:08
monthly candle as if for the results01:41:11
September looks good because we01:41:13
August dropped away abruptly, but then August01:41:16
then at closing Of course you bought01:41:18
last week Well, now we're closing it01:41:20
the whole body Yes, all this Dodge all01:41:24
this whole shadow, which is logical Well, if01:41:27
close at the lows of the month will be well01:41:30
October November further we fall further01:41:32
we fall01:41:34
Nice funk itself all these mammoths How are you01:41:36
you see, well, here she is, this beautiful double01:41:38
top try even double top01:41:41
we couldn’t draw here Well01:41:44
cleanest also reversal fall on01:41:45
currently only 11 percent of01:41:47
maximum Well just the beginning just the beginning01:41:49
how they fall in the twentieth year -5001:41:52
all these Apple Google Amazon fell and so on01:41:54
further therefore there is also a reversal here01:41:56
the purest snp if so the channel is beautiful01:41:59
draw a line Well, how can you do it there?01:42:01
four five lines points I mean01:42:04
Well, it’s still in the ascendant01:42:05
channel but here such rubicon was 4.40001:42:08
it's four now01:42:10
320, well, 4,300 is the lower limit01:42:14
channel if Well, how do I build it Well01:42:17
in fact, the support level is still 4.20001:42:19
there are 4 200 4 300 this is where we are01:42:21
we can hang out for a week or two Well, there you go01:42:24
the start of the reporting season there yes01:42:26
mid-October 4,200 conditionally like this01:42:29
breakout level 4.200 opens the way01:42:32
for three at once for 3.8 4 there will be no01:42:35
stops01:42:36
Stepan Gennadievich Demura can be called01:42:38
immediately on 3 800 on 4 There is nothing to keep01:42:41
there won't be Well, I hope there will be a finale Well I01:42:44
I hope so, maybe there and then01:42:47
3 let's fly I don't know how if01:42:50
everything will fall down like a house of cards there01:42:52
of course they won’t assemble it at 3,800 there and at01:42:54
they won’t collect three rubles, well, I hope quickly01:42:57
everything will change shoes therefore goals01:42:59
so far I have modest it's 3 800 Wherever I am01:43:02
I opened mine, I don’t know if I will buy it01:43:06
or not Well, I'll be happy when 401:43:08
200 problems until I'm happy with the market01:43:10
turned around but no fall yet01:43:12
There’s no clear idea, we’ll break it at 4,200 then01:43:15
then everything can be done safely01:43:18
read enjoy Russell 2000 I don’t know01:43:20
will small capitalization companies be able to01:43:22
they didn't grow much, they didn't grow much, well01:43:25
at least in the corridor you see a two-year-old01:43:27
1600 2000 now we stand exactly in the middle01:43:30
Well, the lower limit will reach the level01:43:32
1.600 good support 17 18 1901:43:35
Therefore, in any case, the company is small01:43:38
capitalization of interest all by 15 20 3001:43:40
Well, they could easily fall. So what?01:43:42
6790 still Still current I doubt something01:43:46
Although anything can happen01:43:49
German dax closes the week01:43:51
Well, they didn’t really break through, of course01:43:55
this one is yours01:43:57
15 558 Well, practically closed closed01:44:02
probably on the 200-day moving average and01:44:04
look how beautiful it is, it lasts all year01:44:07
15600 level 15 550 15 600 level whole01:44:10
year By the way, it will give almost 02 dynamics like this01:44:13
since the beginning of the year and here is the moving01:44:15
the two-hundredth century has just reached the level and01:44:17
now this week and the breakdown01:44:19
essence and level and 200 Well, in my opinion, in my opinion01:44:23
maybe a beautiful picture happened01:44:25
and here, as it were, here are the roads to where01:44:27
1312 thousand there01:44:30
there in Germany That's the market for a long time01:44:33
selling out but not so many three rubles yet01:44:36
we are going to profitability at the peak of bankruptcy01:44:39
Greece when in the tenth eleventh year01:44:41
the yields were over there three now01:44:44
I wish it weren't so scary yet01:44:45
The Italian market is still surprising01:44:48
who's holding it with their teeth? Why not?01:44:50
sell Well, as you see the year01:44:52
more than a year and a half four percent01:44:55
the yields are just there and everything seems to be there01:44:57
doesn’t really help with shopping now01:45:02
ECB Well, why aren’t there any sellers?01:45:05
I understand Europe is falling01:45:07
to the situation in the country01:45:10
[ __ ] cans under pressure because01:45:12
that they are charged an additional tax01:45:14
account for saving the economy there damn the market01:45:17
it costs a long time, that is, in the USA it pours in01:45:20
Nobody supports Italy in my opinion01:45:21
the debt market is priced strangely but once upon a time01:45:24
we'll see the profitability when Greece01:45:27
default Or flew under seven and a half01:45:30
Italy's profitability Well, that's it for a week01:45:32
the Euro British Central also met01:45:35
the bank also seems to have said everything01:45:37
We won’t raise any more, pause. Well,01:45:41
actually the pound actually went on this01:45:42
down this is also a beautiful picture01:45:45
looks like sunset sunset euro I tell you01:45:47
showed what it looks like yes And this picture01:45:49
What the decline of the British pound looks like here01:45:52
the same thing while we're walking, the euro goes to 090801:45:56
Funtik is moving towards parity, the situation is now01:45:59
in the world if we take it in all economies then01:46:00
the worst situation in the economy is01:46:02
Britain is now the worst in the world01:46:04
then a little01:46:06
better in Europe and slightly better in America01:46:09
Japan but it's here The worst of all01:46:12
the rate is also 525 in my opinion Yes 5 or01:46:16
525 Well, it’s kind of screwed, of course, because01:46:19
they won't raise any further either01:46:21
pound 1 and 2 I say won't stay if01:46:24
12 hits all next par goal01:46:26
Well, actually they will be each other01:46:29
together drag euro pound pound euro01:46:31
so immediately euro 0908 pound should01:46:34
priority, but then I don’t know anymore01:46:36
it's no longer stones anymore01:46:39
call he will bury everyone at once Well,01:46:43
of course everything Today is the last slide01:46:45
the penultimate bank of Japan today01:46:50
Well, morons, I don’t want to talk here at all.01:46:52
Just01:46:56
probably after all the Fed simply asked not01:46:59
make sudden movements because it can01:47:01
sprinkle the whole world Well, hurry up to me01:47:02
it seems so, too, the comments were like this01:47:05
phrase, please do not make sudden movements and01:47:07
say the terrorists Well, here they are on this one01:47:11
week they talked there and there were statements in01:47:13
press because the Japs sell from01:47:15
They are Japanese, their inflation is growing and01:47:19
rates are near zero and profitability by gangs01:47:21
near zero yields are cracking selling out01:47:23
the pyramids are crumbling and to support it01:47:25
they ransom ransom for what01:47:27
printed print01:47:29
yen the yen is falling actually that the military01:47:31
keep need to sell American01:47:32
Treasure so as not to hold America asks01:47:35
don't sell 3G I understand what is needed01:47:37
hold on and don't sell That's how we do it01:47:39
everyone is selling China is selling Arabs are selling01:47:41
The Ministry of Finance is selling, the Fed is selling, you will also01:47:44
you don't have to rush to sell, to hell with it01:47:46
tell them that everything is fine with you and01:47:48
here they are making a statement again today01:47:50
yes We will print everything under control01:47:52
as much as needed again01:47:54
Crap01:48:01
I don’t know 148 Yes now01:48:04
148 3201:48:07
148 3201:48:11
corpses01:48:13
Well, the only one who understands in the background01:48:16
pouring euro pouring pound pouring yen01:48:21
DX Vaychik dollar index and the higher it is01:48:25
will be the one01:48:26
[music]01:48:28
everyone will have more problems01:48:31
oh gold is a good asset01:48:35
Well gold Okay, what do you need me for?01:48:39
I've been talking about this for a long time now01:48:41
The Ministry of Finance has the balance there, repost this chart there01:48:45
who How much does it take how much money01:48:46
left and so on tried to you01:48:49
convey what convey what01:48:53
we want we don’t want how it will be I don’t know01:48:56
but they need to do it next year They01:48:59
the same stakes and they have no other choice01:49:02
next year America launch01:49:03
printing press01:49:05
Therefore, if I say outline the Horizon01:49:09
20 well Horizon 12 there 15 months before01:49:12
at the end of 24 it could be at 2501:49:15
throws it right away of course01:49:19
One hell of a crypto and gold will fly to the top01:49:23
gold of course smaller picture Too01:49:26
cool and dickish in height but not01:49:28
put off a lot, yes, that is, we from01:49:30
level 2060 we don’t go down too much01:49:33
consolidation Well yes, no consultation01:49:36
you know there are no such strong sales01:49:37
kickbacks That is, as I understand it, 1802 will be01:49:41
there may still be some sawing, sawing, sawing01:49:43
Quarter 2 until signals arrive01:49:47
then oh well next year America01:49:50
Of course it flies higher than a kopeck piece. Well, I’m a cue ball01:49:52
I still don't even want these01:49:55
Now01:49:58
vomit not all this will launch these there01:50:00
fi won't launch doesn't play a role Well yes01:50:04
print us01:50:05
rate cut is inevitable01:50:07
and bitox year 67 thousand We will see at least01:50:13
If we see you, I'll [ __ ] close this one01:50:15
transfer and that's it I'm going to work somewhere else01:50:18
and therefore the bet on crypto is through01:50:21
microstrategy I have 6 percent01:50:23
the briefcase is hanging, well, I say I want to01:50:26
increase and more and 10-15 than you before01:50:30
end of the year what will you do if suddenly01:50:32
your bet won't work, at least I'll win01:50:36
since the process was just wrong01:50:39
classic to classic Basil the deer01:50:42
says I'm not just wrong01:50:44
timings I'm wrong by quarter 201:50:47
There is always almost 2 quarters on01:50:49
you are plus 3 there are usually three months here01:50:52
well, it doesn’t matter Well, if you work01:50:57
Are you when the money is the money or are you the script01:51:01
you do it based on the fundamentals Well, sort of01:51:03
there is an error quarter yes Well listen01:51:06
central banks for six months for a year01:51:07
sometimes something starts later01:51:09
do I01:51:11
I agree in that I like it01:51:14
bet on gold insert on the cue ball too01:51:17
voiced there a long time ago not now not directly01:51:20
right now there are no drivers right now01:51:22
next year it won't even be about01:51:24
drivers We are talking about current entry points, what01:51:26
Last week I said there the most01:51:29
blunt01:51:30
the dumbest trading system ever01:51:32
Bitcoin is easy to buy where 24 2501:51:35
everything is fine it works just fine01:51:38
for gold the same thing, stupid strategy01:51:41
1920 1918 I buy everything I just dial01:51:45
They won’t give 700 anymore, I think not and I’m on01:51:49
in fact, even in terms of gold, not so much01:51:51
optimistic like you Vasily I don’t think so01:51:52
that gold will go higher than 2.100 Well01:51:56
I just don't I don't 2.500 I don't think I don't01:52:00
such an optimist about gold, I agree01:52:02
in the twenty-fifth year expects such01:52:05
levels but it’s still a crisis time01:52:07
Well, friends, let's move on to the ground01:52:11
Let me remind our Russian market that I01:52:13
I'm looking for investors ideas other than top ones01:52:17
companies from issues we repeat01:52:20
to diversify investor content01:52:22
except for Rosneft Lukoil Izbera I highlight01:52:27
What else might be interesting?01:52:30
for content and for investors you tell me01:52:33
Vasyusha asked to sort it out No, no01:52:36
Moscow Exchange Russian disassemble01:52:39
Now we’ll go through it too. Well, about01:52:41
Moscow Exchange, what can I say here?01:52:42
I think that this issuer is probably good01:52:45
stayed within the limits of this week, it was clear01:52:48
that the market is correcting at Moscow01:52:51
exchanges the fall, the correction was minimal in01:52:54
some days there, some even hours She01:52:56
played against the market Therefore, if they give01:52:59
cheaper to come in I think I'll do it01:53:02
must be done because it’s a coursework01:53:05
growth and beneficiary in general in principle what01:53:07
there is a lot of money in the Russian system01:53:11
There are many different types of private investors01:53:13
services and offers plus issuers01:53:16
strive new Amy strive to reach01:53:19
they are trying to conduct an additional exchange01:53:21
placement of shares and this of course01:53:24
we have only one beneficiary here01:53:26
Moscow Exchange plus the Ministry of Finance01:53:29
I think 30 was agreed upon by 30 countries01:53:30
friendly who will be given admission to01:53:33
Russian stock market in the entire section01:53:36
30 friendly countries will be great. So01:53:39
that there is some kind of influx there, that’s not great01:53:41
if our glass gets diluted further01:53:43
friendly here is only circumstance01:53:45
there really isn’t much, it’s just there When01:53:47
about the cycle of rate cuts in Russia Well01:53:49
It’s not a fact that it won’t start falling01:53:52
you see it's good to hold it now yeah01:53:55
here's an eye on next year conditionally01:53:59
140 if it goes to 140 maybe 14001:54:02
if you bought 140 It just seems to me01:54:06
Perhaps we are talking about something like this01:54:08
correction then yes, it’s as simple as that now01:54:10
wait for local rollbacks01:54:14
We're talking about the airplane group of companies too01:54:17
talked and chatted with Alexander01:54:20
about the apartment Why not apartments01:54:23
are falling It seems to me that during the period of high01:54:25
bets And I also did a review and analysis01:54:28
the real estate market in Russia highlighted01:54:31
literally there two issues ago01:54:32
rewind01:54:34
Here on our channel Money Never Sleeps01:54:37
this episode where she said that here01:54:39
expands preferential mortgages and just01:54:41
the issuer is a group of companies aircraft and01:54:43
peak is two issuers that work for01:54:46
preferential mortgage account plus Groups01:54:48
aircraft companies have competition01:54:50
advantage is the first largest01:54:53
land bank and not everyone knows this01:54:56
plane plus also whose daughter is01:55:00
twenty-fifth year will probably be released on01:55:02
Apple at least such statements01:55:04
management already gave therefore here too01:55:06
there are interesting ideas interesting01:55:09
I'll just make corrections01:55:12
recruit this issuer to your01:55:13
the briefcase is actually Vasyusha because01:55:16
I ordered a company from Hydra and got it01:55:20
of course Rushydra at some point But01:55:22
This is not my story at all. I’ll explain.01:55:26
why Because it’s a communal apartment in Russia01:55:27
On the one hand, this is a protective sector01:55:30
where there are seemingly stable dividends01:55:33
the entire housing and communal services sector in Russia is famous01:55:35
dividends, in principle, as in the world01:55:38
sites but I don’t like this01:55:42
profit dynamics in principle now01:55:47
wait, here's the profit dynamics01:55:50
behind01:55:52
Oh01:55:54
didn't draw the graph01:55:57
Okay I don't like the dynamics01:56:00
revenue because here for the first time01:56:03
half year 23 revenue growth was visible01:56:07
there plus 16 plus 20 percent Now01:56:10
I'll say for sure yes plus01:56:12
yes plus 21 even and a half percent01:56:16
revenue increased But this is due to01:56:18
indexation of tariffs in the Far East01:56:20
That is, we increased it in the region01:56:22
saw this indexation as a plus for revenue01:56:27
about dividends now too01:56:29
probably not such a competitive thing01:56:31
which is usually there, that is, if somehow01:56:34
average the pink line is the dividend line01:56:36
profitability here We probably see the figure01:56:38
4 that is four percent yield01:56:40
which we can observe here plus01:56:43
again, these are all the stories about01:56:46
increased income tax as01:56:50
RusHydro Here also gets here and01:56:52
here it turns out to be about 1.7 billion01:56:55
rubles the company must pay therefore01:56:57
Here01:56:58
I sorted it out especially for you I Invest01:57:02
I don’t see any ideas, probably the level01:57:04
attractive who are you here01:57:06
drew but the potential of something like that01:57:09
investor here for yourself it’s not01:57:12
Interesting01:57:13
Yes, unfortunately, well, this is mine01:57:17
A sneaky look at this issuer here's where01:57:21
I was surprised this is the AFK system01:57:25
too, well, we’ll probably be company01:57:28
discussion constantly01:57:30
born when I disassemble the system directly01:57:33
from issue issue I remember this but01:57:36
Let's go over the latest report01:57:38
I will dedicate Why it seems to me that01:57:40
despite the well-known difficulties01:57:42
It can be interesting here in the drawdowns01:57:45
and there will be potential for further growth01:57:48
the first one is probably cool, what a fool01:57:52
the second quarter is growing and at the same time it01:57:54
grows due to such amazing01:57:57
segment again the phone of those MTS and01:58:03
additionally That is, I highlighted the good one01:58:05
growth in the hotel business and enter01:58:08
digging deeper there it is clear that AFK is in01:58:11
the current period is buying new hotels01:58:14
because our local Russians01:58:16
tourism is developing very widely01:58:19
pace, that is, to leave there at the same01:58:21
Turkey itself Well, relatively speaking, already01:58:24
it's getting a little expensive and our beautiful01:58:26
places like Altai Baikal are simply very01:58:29
shows itself great now plus01:58:31
again it just wrote me out even this01:58:34
phrase production of ships on01:58:37
electric traction I don’t know what it is in general01:58:39
acquisition of this asset and on them01:58:41
perform 4-2 Well, that's it, friends and01:58:46
I also talked again when01:58:48
Segezha with Elena Romanova She says01:58:50
which is very cool now here they are01:58:53
parent company01:58:55
acquires various cases in its01:58:57
structure what's most amazing is that01:59:01
it's just my strength we see yes it's duty01:59:04
this huge pie owes 20001:59:08
wonderful number Vasya you love this01:59:10
222 billion rubles is all they have in debt01:59:13
plus ruble bonds and loans in01:59:15
jars, but what do I think beauty is?01:59:18
It's been a long time since there's an unsettled debt here01:59:21
this is 8 percent per annum We have now01:59:23
rate 15 there 14 somewhere you can even there01:59:28
borrow at an even higher interest rate But here it is01:59:30
that's 8 percent, that's certainly very01:59:32
great and basically the company itself01:59:34
says that well, we are now in some kind of01:59:37
comfortable conditions there to break through later01:59:39
carrying out some calculations Well, it’s clear that01:59:41
company Well optimal optimal01:59:45
debt level That's all plus01:59:48
all ruble debt and the company notes01:59:51
which reduces liabilities by about 1501:59:53
percent precisely due to the fact that01:59:55
daughters pay dividends01:59:58
TMK02:00:00
I'm sure I02:00:06
I keep tossing about it every six months02:00:09
like it or not like it or not02:00:11
like I'm afraid02:00:13
for the MTS asset, I would say that this is the year02:00:18
the last time MTS will pay02:00:20
you're afraid of dividends, look at how they are02:00:23
feel good how they are structured02:00:25
proceeds well myself I take that MTS is coming soon02:00:30
there will be no change in monetary policy02:00:32
pay dividends02:00:36
Listen okay02:00:39
this will be a blow to MTS shareholders and02:00:44
MTS immediately flies for 100 rubles and02:00:47
everything will fly away by 20 percent locally too02:00:51
to MTS I have questions and they are even there02:00:54
are more closely related to02:00:56
current current market that expensive02:00:58
money02:01:01
negative net worth Well02:01:03
listen, it just makes sense02:01:06
specifically MTS Yes, it’s just already there02:01:09
shareholders will take one place, they will say02:01:12
so good02:01:15
[music]02:01:18
This02:01:20
one segment from many segments then02:01:24
that there are a lot of steppe agricultural holdings here02:01:27
yes development Well, in short, it’s real02:01:29
there are a lot of daughters who are probably the market02:01:33
7 is definitely waiting for their IPO when02:01:37
enter the market when investors02:01:40
Hungry so again one of the points02:01:43
I'm just worried for the test02:01:46
Well, of course I’ll worry in general02:01:49
because MTS I have a briefcase No02:01:51
worry, at least for this I'm for you02:01:53
I usually worry when everything is bad02:01:56
ok I'm the opposite02:01:58
I don’t believe it at all but okay Let’s move on02:02:06
what a difficult metallurgical company02:02:08
TMK goes to02:02:13
I will also have a conversation with02:02:16
management literally on Monday02:02:18
so there is still an invitation to everyone02:02:21
telegram channels blog channels02:02:23
we will definitely publish the pulse therefore02:02:25
join and know Vasya by02:02:28
Having studied the company it seems to look like this02:02:31
interesting but I want to talk with02:02:34
TMK management to ask02:02:37
all the questions that interest me02:02:39
Why did they espiose from there? What are the conditions?02:02:42
what will they do next? Well, in short02:02:44
competitors in general want it all02:02:46
find out But let's just say we'll see02:02:50
on the past and what we see is that 8002:02:53
percent of their revenue is generated by02:02:57
oil and gas sector02:02:58
Well, it’s obvious what they feel here02:03:01
not bad plus it's vertical02:03:02
integrated company they buy02:03:04
they continue to make cheap raw materials themselves and02:03:08
add increased added02:03:10
the cost turns out to be a good margin we02:03:13
we see who blew up the Nord Stream02:03:16
we see this profitability who am I on new02:03:18
flow build apparently that profitability02:03:21
Winning 1728 percent for first02:03:23
half a year 23 is actually02:03:25
it's impressive when so many people now02:03:27
industrial companies Well reduced02:03:29
profitability let's say up to the level there02:03:32
15 percent is very cool here 2802:03:34
percent and plus revenue growth rate02:03:37
good too02:03:39
dividend yield then what are we02:03:41
We often discuss here that Well,02:03:43
the rate increases becomes02:03:45
uninteresting Well, you look like this and it seems02:03:48
would be interested 23 percent 24 first02:03:52
half year 23 years 10 percent seems to be02:03:55
Cool02:03:56
Probably not a cool topic Whose share is it?02:03:59
blurred now in the moment but she doesn't02:04:02
very blurry02:04:03
I want details details on the deal02:04:06
conditions and it seems that this is actually02:04:08
Good point Good potential therefore02:04:11
and plus and plus generally very good02:04:14
sustainability is literally a ratio02:04:16
feeling of debt to trouble 16 that is, here too02:04:19
the company can take on some02:04:22
increased obligations to oneself02:04:24
as comfortable as possible02:04:26
Yes, she’s good for everyone to sit like an invert02:04:29
for investors She's good again graph02:04:31
There is not02:04:33
[ __ ], okay, we’ll answer your questions more02:04:35
questions, you went and didn’t find something?02:04:38
Vasya, I’m always here with body and soul, that’s why02:04:41
friends I think the list of issuers02:04:44
small Yes low capitalization02:04:47
liquidity it is in front of you AFK system02:04:49
this is an issuer where there is enough liquidity02:04:52
I think it's good and so extensive02:04:54
at least I have a list Well, I'm waiting02:04:56
corrections often spoke about this02:04:58
Mondays with you here all the time02:04:59
We’re discussing this and I’ll be careful02:05:02
get these companies02:05:05
Bank of America outlined this focus02:05:08
possible worst case scenario for02:05:10
American economy for the 4th quarter02:05:12
now you will find out the trade union strike02:05:15
goes there to Forrest talent GM in my opinion02:05:18
Today is the 22nd today until noon02:05:21
were due before noon in America02:05:22
agree I understand02:05:24
the trade unions did not agree there02:05:27
the strike is growing more and more02:05:28
it’s large-scale and there won’t be dozens soon02:05:31
there may actually be hundreds of thousands on strike there02:05:33
this is a blow to related sectors and the plant02:05:37
actually if there is a strike02:05:39
Trade unions in the sector and suspension02:05:42
work still government From October 102:05:44
will last until November tidy this up02:05:46
high energy prices then in such02:05:48
vinaigrette we can get at all02:05:50
GDP drop in fourth quarter America02:05:53
writes easily easily yes they have02:05:57
voting, as I understand it, on the budget for02:06:00
next year USA02:06:01
preliminary 21 failed 29 now02:06:05
will02:06:06
repeat on the first day they have a new one02:06:09
US fiscal year vote 2902:06:11
will most likely fail02:06:14
Okay, let's go over the question. That's just it02:06:18
the first one might be funny really three02:06:20
question damn black I want October like this02:06:23
that's all they have for the first question from02:06:26
Ruslana haviza what why are you rating02:06:28
dividend shares based on dividends themselves02:06:30
tie their OFZ yields if02:06:32
dividends are only part of net profit02:06:34
here is Ruslan at the beginning of our dialogue speech02:06:37
Vasya also just retorted that02:06:39
this is true, only part of it, not entirely02:06:41
correctly link dividends02:06:44
yield coupon yield This is not02:06:47
that's right, that's why I'm here now too02:06:49
I highlight not only the dividend02:06:51
component A and exchange rate growth That is02:06:53
this is exactly the same in stocks02:06:56
risk premium02:06:57
basically a bond instrument for02:06:59
created to stabilize02:07:01
your investor portfolio of stocks is just02:07:04
after all, this is the boost that will give02:07:06
additional profitability when the market02:07:08
will be in the right phase02:07:11
Okay, I won't say anything, but you said it02:07:15
dividends in wrappers on this score Yes,02:07:19
that's exactly it02:07:21
profitability in ruble and dollar and for 10 for02:07:24
15 years old so it should be02:07:25
diversification across currencies so we02:07:28
here also Disassemble America China02:07:30
gold and Bitcoin02:07:33
[music]02:07:34
return for 10 years RTS index full02:07:37
yield 30 percent or three per annum02:07:40
in dollars with all dividends for 1502:07:43
years 1 6 percent02:07:47
ruble capital control Me02:07:51
it seems like it's long-term bought for02:07:53
a year 30 percent may give or even 4002:07:56
even 50 or just 20 years of investment02:08:03
Well, well, as it is02:08:10
stock market mid-last year to02:08:13
the middle of this year True, he behaved02:08:15
Very good02:08:20
So let's read There was some question02:08:25
something about technically the USA defaulting02:08:27
someone got caught in the ceiling of the state long water02:08:30
just a satiricon02:08:34
if the House representative does not approve02:08:36
raising the ceiling and at the end of September Well02:08:39
there they make a speech there just not the ceiling02:08:40
Our government ceiling has been raised to02:08:43
January 25, as far as I know, here they are02:08:47
how crazy Now it’s already being built up02:08:48
33 trillion has already struck we are talking about02:08:52
adoption of the US budget for next year02:08:54
Biden, as always, asks, I don’t want to02:08:57
nothing to cut taxes nothing02:08:59
raise just write me a check02:09:02
health in 4 trillion 33 me I live02:09:05
there's a little left I don't give a damn, write me out02:09:06
give me a check Okay02:09:09
there may be a technical default here02:09:11
this is not a technical default, it's down02:09:14
US government shutdown Well02:09:16
actually, if it lasts until November02:09:18
there will be a certificate of work from government agencies02:09:22
not just any government institutions02:09:24
municipal institutions will start working02:09:25
this is actually a big blow to the economy02:09:27
because no salary really02:09:28
schools, gardens will remain there, everything will have to be02:09:31
close the municipality to the government here02:09:33
no funding02:09:35
that's where the money is in the Ministry of Finance accounts02:09:37
great You see how much there is 70002:09:39
billion Almost that is, we are not talking now02:09:41
ceiling and lack of money, we're talking about02:09:45
the budget itself is not agreed upon therefore it is a waste02:09:48
impossible02:09:50
technically it won't be just this circus02:09:52
once again02:09:53
will negatively affect the stock market02:09:55
because it will have a negative impact on GDP02:09:58
income is all Therefore, this is negative for the market02:10:00
In any case, this whole circus02:10:02
probably the last one will be waiting for us02:10:05
The rating agency has not yet downgraded02:10:07
rating Yes USA overall decreased by two02:10:11
[music]02:10:14
Well, the third one should formally be lowered too02:10:16
there already and it is necessary to cut even lower for a long time02:10:21
this week I wrote to Raidal like this02:10:24
America is really bankrupt Well, by the way02:10:26
Musk wrote this as if they were just saying02:10:28
It’s not a question of whether you’re bankrupt or not, yes, but a question02:10:31
When Well they raided for a week said Well who02:10:34
doesn't understand America is bankrupt Well, sort of02:10:36
as formal as economics Yes it is02:10:38
large discrete economy02:10:39
the largest high-tech there02:10:41
they say Yes, the scale is the most02:10:43
big in the world but formally it is bankrupt02:10:45
Yes, it’s normal for her to go bankrupt without02:10:48
printing press is even easy to maintain02:10:50
will not be able to pay his debts next year02:10:53
can't do it without a printing press02:10:57
That's all fine, bankrupt02:11:00
so a question from Yuria Dranitsyn Ira How are you02:11:04
look at Transneft Well, who doesn’t know02:11:07
not all this is all a super expensive company02:11:09
Now02:11:11
preference shares02:11:13
142,350 rubles Transneft Yes, we never02:11:17
this company was not dismantled. Therefore, I02:11:19
I won’t walk too deep here, I won’t02:11:23
friends, I'll be honest, but that's all02:11:25
they talk about02:11:27
Always02:11:30
I think if you go to Split, well, if you02:11:33
you are probably sitting keep leaving02:11:35
after the gossip I'm still thinking02:11:38
will grow anyway, yes of course because02:11:40
that Well, just such shares They need02:11:42
in Peak we saw statistics from02:11:45
Moscow Exchange What is the average size02:11:47
portfolio from a private investor and obviously02:11:49
that they are sitting here02:11:50
[music]02:11:52
let's not just say this02:11:55
Not all Not all private investors who02:11:57
actively trades02:11:59
Hello Vasya Ira02:12:02
What do you think about Rostelek?02:12:05
dividend friends02:12:08
I have some Rostelecom analytics02:12:14
[music]02:12:19
Me too, just a little bit, yes now02:12:22
corrections picked up by Rostelecom in the portfolio02:12:24
Yes, some people also asked a question there02:12:25
Vasya is tall, which way is he coming here?02:12:29
Well, a little, a little, Well, I just picked up the game02:12:32
these are the companies that I bought02:12:34
I’m ready to increase them there by 2,800 if02:12:36
the index will come as if I haven’t chosen everything02:12:38
there seem to be six companies or 5-6 and now02:12:41
these same companies simply increased the index02:12:43
the order of them is like Rostelecom there02:12:45
there is also not such a large share as02:12:47
basic but it seems to me yes everything02:12:52
lower to the family 70 and lower Yes I think02:12:55
this is good02:12:56
We take a good undervalued company02:12:59
the mark of 70 rubles and below, that is, against the background02:13:02
it looks cheaper than its competitors02:13:03
business is stable I think yes02:13:07
prospects for growth and development plus there are02:13:09
which02:13:11
interesting news that would be especially02:13:14
are not discussed regarding the future02:13:16
fate Youtube02:13:19
yes and uh02:13:22
collaborations, all this goes to Rostelecom02:13:25
that is, all traffic will be from YouTube02:13:27
closed spread through filters That's it02:13:31
there is, as it were, it is being discussed and prepared02:13:33
and as I understand it will be And by the way This is02:13:36
I bet it would be good for your body02:13:37
Because earlier there was talk that02:13:39
VK is the equivalent of YouTube in Russia there02:13:41
do RuTube all these things right now02:13:45
very bad with efficiency02:13:48
she lives now and she was discussed02:13:52
I think they gave the go-ahead and now technically02:13:55
all this somehow I think they will do listen02:13:58
there's actually a lot here02:13:59
interesting daughters and me too, wait02:14:04
about Rostelecom there is a lot inside02:14:06
interesting daughters and some of them start02:14:08
it’s really good to show yourself too02:14:11
most Tele2 which is now in the top02:14:14
third place in terms of number of subscribers02:14:16
it is clear that many businesses are inside02:14:19
this perimeter they start well02:14:21
show and again in contrast to MTS02:14:24
the one you and I were talking about02:14:26
Here is the ratio of net debt to debt02:14:29
what they measure for themselves is just right02:14:31
comfortable 1.8 1.8 And MTS has much02:14:35
increased debt burden is02:14:36
is their problematic marker then02:14:39
there are divas there that are not so big there02:14:41
I think 7-8 percent I think that's it02:14:42
that is, it's understandable02:14:44
not so profitable right now but there is02:14:48
where can companies grow, that is, 70 and02:14:51
below I think that this is even true02:14:53
underrated story that's why now02:14:56
72 71 this week was Well picked up02:14:58
picked it up a little bit What if suddenly02:15:01
it will be 65 there below Rostelecom Yes, I think02:15:04
Not a bad idea, well for diversification02:15:07
briefcase, as it were, so as not to bet everything02:15:09
There's a conditional desire to go to Sberbank Lukoil02:15:13
damn question Maxim Kuzmichev about about02:15:17
Jevan rush friends here is such a thing02:15:20
even there one little guy donated02:15:23
even sent it directly this week02:15:25
not a small amount of money and asked for it02:15:29
alive I even schedule John did therapy02:15:31
text Here it is, the last one is true, but I02:15:34
yesterday I left the office at midnight the day before yesterday02:15:36
I left the office at midnight. Damn, I even02:15:38
I made a schedule and thought it would be today02:15:40
time to delve into the last bit of information02:15:42
study02:15:44
there was no time so next02:15:47
next broadcast for sure02:15:49
let's try to figure it out if life is at the end02:15:51
listen to the tunnel as far as I remember02:15:54
the last quarterly report was there02:15:56
positive notes Yes, but what's the point?02:15:59
all the most important events And by the way02:16:01
spirions including them in the first02:16:04
block there will be this pip-line which02:16:05
There is02:16:06
they will have two announcements Yes, according to tests02:16:11
there's the second clinical phase There's the first02:16:14
quarter to the first quarter is unlikely02:16:16
some growth drivers for the company will appear02:16:18
money and uspirions it’s clear what’s wrong02:16:21
there is a lot here The question is not whether02:16:24
she's bankrupt no she won't go bankrupt02:16:27
Either someone will buy it, or actually02:16:32
she will continue to live like everyone else02:16:34
other unprofitable companies due to02:16:36
additional missions to dilute the share of attracting02:16:38
actually money for further02:16:39
accommodation because right now I'm not02:16:41
I remember the money there, maybe for 3 blocks02:16:45
there are still companies, I don’t really have the numbers right now02:16:48
I remember there was a report, uh, I think it was her02:16:51
I just sorted it out there on the report, that is02:16:54
there are sales of trilocyclibs there, well, a little bit02:16:58
is increasing but not at the same pace02:17:00
new marketers there, well, not so much02:17:03
aggressively and sales are growing The problem is02:17:06
that look at this last quarter02:17:09
He'll probably be the worst this year02:17:11
Well I think so02:17:13
for all European American02:17:17
the market also thinks so, that is, the Market02:17:19
after six months of growth Yes, it’s August02:17:23
September there is still some kind of flat02:17:25
there is conditionally the last quarter We02:17:28
we can draw a correction in a quarter then02:17:30
there is that's why we are now in a reversal phase02:17:32
We are the markets have not fallen yet How are you02:17:34
you also see the nasdaq s&p in the growing channel02:17:37
as soon as markets come out of it02:17:38
fell even when there will be a fall Like you02:17:41
you think here it’s 13 dollars? Oh well02:17:44
13 dollars can become one dollar02:17:46
it could fall by 30 percent maybe02:17:49
up to 0.7 twice Maybe maybe just02:17:52
unprofitable companies in a falling market02:17:54
they wet them twice as fast and they also shorten them02:17:57
shorts and funds that's why they02:17:59
they can’t resist, that is, you02:18:00
they put pressure and well, this is how they make money02:18:03
everyone remember what if you have02:18:06
unprofitable company now America will02:18:08
fall without before you -30 on it but if02:18:10
does not earn money from the company now and02:18:12
it is clear that there will be more on the market02:18:14
serious correction but also quotes at two02:18:16
times can still happen, that is02:18:20
wait until 1 quarter before the first02:18:24
I think they have enough money for a quarter02:18:25
without additional mission they will survive02:18:28
but catch until the end of the year It’s clear that02:18:30
there is nothing I don’t remember in the last report02:18:32
as far as I remember I say all the announcements02:18:34
were in the first quarter of 24 years this02:18:37
no year02:18:38
there will be no news on tests02:18:43
active drug Well yes02:18:48
There is an increase in sales but it is not02:18:51
impressive there you go02:18:54
while it's stalling Here's a question about me02:18:59
next broadcast02:19:02
latest news at least for this here I am02:19:05
just all the news that's out there02:19:06
I still remember the last report but not02:19:10
watched Didn't read Maybe something02:19:11
there is still something interesting to catch02:19:13
In general, I postponed the topic until the first quarter02:19:15
from translation02:19:17
Here's a question about TLT, isn't it scary?02:19:21
should I sit on tilt and behind the depository02:19:23
risks and I want to show the structure02:19:27
portfolio that, in principle, probably up to02:19:30
of this whole unpleasant moment here02:19:33
the moment of the beginning of the SFO I always spend02:19:36
such a certain portfolio scoring and in02:19:38
principle I treat capital this way:02:19:39
these risks must be taken into account in order02:19:42
per issuer at some risk02:19:44
there was one small one there02:19:47
share it now here for me on Aisha02:19:49
literally two percent, that is, yes No02:19:51
comfortable Yes there are risks but we know02:19:53
when the sanctions packages are announced and02:19:56
if this share is too large what02:19:59
maybe it will be worth it but it's worth it02:20:01
reduce it but for now around two02:20:03
interest on the entire capital It seems02:20:04
sounds pretty good so no02:20:07
park Probably all the cache assets02:20:10
which can02:20:12
be exposed to infrastructure risks02:20:14
just observe diversification again02:20:17
doesn't know the trade of some kind of package either02:20:20
this strategy can be applied02:20:24
Denis asks02:20:26
frozen a large deposit attack02:20:29
market, that is, lost, as I understand it02:20:31
maybe already lost How to get out02:20:34
this unpleasant state of loss02:20:37
they ask you like an experienced person. Well, this is02:20:40
good question I02:20:46
It’s difficult for me to give any even here02:20:48
recommendations I remember my condition02:20:49
When the hell are you really going to hang yourself?02:20:52
wanted you didn't want you hated everything02:20:54
the world is not parents did not want not to see02:20:57
no one02:20:59
just live, well, I lived, I spent the night for two days02:21:03
Lived in the car for two days02:21:05
and drank and thought about hanging himself02:21:12
Well, you just lost everything you have02:21:15
earned money for 15 years02:21:21
I do not know how02:21:25
cleaned up and moved on02:21:27
earn capital again02:21:30
Well, if there are relatives there, I don’t know there02:21:33
wife or someone there or is it just them02:21:36
maybe02:21:37
support you if you don't have any02:21:40
support from no one and everything02:21:43
only there, on the contrary, they tell you02:21:44
nagging that you are a [ __ ] there yes you are an [ __ ]02:21:48
in general it’s difficult, that is, I’m fine there02:21:52
countries met02:21:58
there was everything left nothing more debts02:22:02
And this time I don’t know if it’s serious02:22:07
stress, many people seem to be playing games02:22:09
there are a lot of different stories coming to the market02:22:11
especially for some people there are strong low tides02:22:14
corrections and immediately it’s on Wall Street02:22:16
windows are thrown out people That is the date02:22:18
You can earn money again for 10 years or02:22:20
I just brought all the money and read02:22:24
someone invested there in some kind of us02:22:27
etc. or the carriages there, damn it, right now02:22:29
there walks there yes the girl has a million carriages02:22:33
I hit it and now it’s half a million and that’s it02:22:35
I already want to hang myself02:22:36
Well damn it's money on the one hand02:22:40
this is time lost, well, as it were02:22:44
[music]02:22:47
that life doesn't end there02:22:49
you say life doesn't end02:22:56
from this advice one yes02:23:00
force yourself to do something02:23:02
sports Although in such a situation it is very02:23:04
hard02:23:06
It is advisable for loved ones to support02:23:09
how could they02:23:13
Well02:23:18
Well, maybe go to church02:23:22
Alternatively, if you believe it will help02:23:27
definitely go02:23:30
Well, I say it again, everyone has everything02:23:32
differently02:23:33
life does not give such tests that02:23:37
man can't pass02:23:39
any test in life is this, but this is it02:23:42
a person's specialty check him for02:23:44
strength If you pass it you02:23:47
you will become02:23:48
stronger and take off to a new level02:23:51
achieve what in your evolution02:23:52
results But if you don't pass it02:23:54
test yes you can end your life02:23:56
it sucks, just believe me02:23:58
happens It doesn't happen on purpose02:24:00
not at peace not with a person Well I'm like this02:24:03
more convinced02:24:05
the situation was complete, I was completely lost02:24:08
was02:24:09
the most gigantic 14 years old It was It was02:24:13
[ __ ], well, now I’m kind of calm02:24:16
I remember how much I have grown02:24:19
after what happened02:24:23
how long did I start tearing my ass for ideas there at least02:24:26
somehow something to get out and so on and so on02:24:29
on and on and on as far as I can02:24:31
evolved That is, it was like this02:24:32
test which02:24:34
10 9 out of 10 people Probably won't pass02:24:38
Well that's it02:24:40
begins when you know you encounter02:24:43
with some complicated just money topics02:24:45
more it's money I understand damn the market02:24:46
I took your hand away, damn my leg, damn it02:24:49
yes this is crap this is money all this02:24:52
the pieces of paper are candy wrappers02:24:55
I like it when a person When for the first time02:24:57
some difficult situation occurs02:25:00
starts to come up with something and it’s just me02:25:02
I usually go to those who are more experienced But02:25:04
relatively speaking, you are Vasya Yes here02:25:06
highlights what needs to be done I don’t know02:25:08
maybe there to see yours02:25:10
The revelation that you have on02:25:12
YouTube how did you go this route?02:25:14
was to watch anyway when02:25:16
the person has already walked this path and it is clear that02:25:19
Here is an example of how this path has been passed02:25:22
that means Denis and you too are with this02:25:25
just a nasty little life02:25:28
stage in life and it happens to everyone02:25:31
black white stripes for any businessmen02:25:35
people have someone's game02:25:37
some say words to God that02:25:40
God took money, not health02:25:42
Yes, because it doesn't happen anyway02:25:45
not a single person so that everything is okay02:25:47
Life is awesome Every year everything is awesome02:25:49
That’s how life doesn’t happen all the time. Therefore, if02:25:52
you'll make great money there02:25:53
that means damn the health of the profit02:25:55
something will screw up somewhere, that's why02:25:57
if you took the money02:25:59
God then Okay, let him take it with money02:26:03
than health therefore about life on02:26:05
tests see how he's [ __ ] back out02:26:08
came back home after that, [ __ ] up02:26:11
we pulled in out of the blue, that’s all02:26:14
and you get both money and time at 402:26:17
until 4 am in the traffic police, damn it, like a muda, like an idiot02:26:20
damn there02:26:22
I was just driving home calmly, I'm just a [ __ ]02:26:25
the idiot looked at the phone02:26:28
life is life everything02:26:31
from the worlds and the rest generally don’t care what02:26:34
on the headstock Well, I got it, everyone gets it02:26:36
somewhere somehow Better with money Take it02:26:39
than your health so bro stay strong02:26:41
Hold on Everyone02:26:43
read, learn, it’s just an experience you gained02:26:46
experience Let for big money The main thing02:26:49
so that life goes on I think02:26:51
great question02:26:53
drinking won't help. Excellent advice from02:26:57
Vasya02:26:59
we like it Yes, what time do we have for this?02:27:02
on a sad note 21:30 at some point02:27:05
inspiring America Come on in the red02:27:08
Close today please please 402:27:10
300 Shut up completely fine No, well02:27:13
it looks like a turning point02:27:16
indeed the games are all central02:27:18
banks gave a signal that they have friends in the world02:27:21
everything is bad for us, well, with high stakes for us02:27:25
you'll have to endure it for a very long time02:27:27
it will be even worse, this is the signal that is on02:27:29
this week they gave all the Brits of Europe and02:27:32
America So02:27:34
the process of industry begins at all02:27:37
markets together Russian apart02:27:39
Of course it's worth it, that's why I'm deep here02:27:40
I’m not waiting for correction by the way, for the life of me02:27:42
if s&p is -20 there we won’t do much02:27:46
let's fall In this case, broadcast today02:27:49
we devoted a lot of time to searching for ideas02:27:52
many revelations of personal stories and plus02:27:55
Again, I think it's great. What else?02:27:57
all returns you ask us questions02:28:00
Tell us about yours even02:28:02
unpleasant events so hold on02:28:05
put your appetites at risk with yours02:28:08
opportunities because all the tests02:28:10
even with the minuses you need to be in tune with the pluses02:28:14
able to pass02:28:18
By the way, about the technical default there02:28:20
the question was the question was how is it02:28:22
will affect TLC here is the ending No way02:28:25
it won't affect the body, I can't either02:28:27
to reach this ending02:28:34
state long blah blah blah friends When in 201102:28:37
year, the US rating was downgraded Yes, uh, here it is02:28:40
for the first time in history uh what happened was02:28:44
stock markets fell bond markets rose02:28:47
American dollars rose therefore once again02:28:49
if there is another one there technical02:28:52
default or something else for shares is02:28:54
negative for bonds is normal for02:28:56
the American dollar is mega positive02:28:59
it will grow here, especially when02:29:01
America is in default again, well02:29:02
turns out to be about twenty-six02:29:04
American dollar first too02:29:06
will grow into space by about 200 DX02:29:09
first first there hours minutes or days02:29:12
Here then02:29:13
with a new life02:29:15
all friends We are finishing it Take care of yourself02:29:18
have a nice weekend take care of yourselves02:29:20
money that's all for now, see you in a week02:29:21
all useful links Yes they are not there02:29:25
then take a look02:29:29
there is an invitation to broadcasts with DNA therefore02:29:33
all useful links in the description codes are there02:29:36
there is also bye byeDescription:
В прямом эфире Василий Олейник и Ирина Ахмадуллина разберут все самое важное, что происходит на финансовых рынках и в мировой экономике. И, конечно, ответят на ваши вопросы. 00:00 Ждем Васю и Иру 00:47 Ура, худшая неделя 02:21 Причины коррекции и рубль 10:22 Несколько новостей и нефть 24:08 Портфель Иры и идеи для инвесторов 34:50 Когда квартиры подешевеют 40:25 Плохая неделя для мирового рынка 51:30 Рынок долга США 01:18:20 Почему ЦБ взял паузу и TLT 01:21:34 Минфин США и что общего с Россией 01:39:04 Основной драйвер роста американского рынка последние 15 лет 01:43:49 Германия, Италия и Англия: где ситуация хуже? 01:48:31 Золото 01:52:08 Вновь о российском рынке 02:06:17 Вопросы от подписчиков 02:15:15 И специальный вопрос 02:20:25 Вася про состояние потери: личный опыт и советы 🎬 Ссылка на эфир с ТМК, который в понедельник проведет Ира https://www.youtube.com/live/TlzYnqM4-f8?feature=shared 👗 Одежда ведущей предоставлена LIMÉ https://clck.ru/eRoMD #США #Экономика #Россия 18+ Не является индивидуальной инвестиционной рекомендацией.
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