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венедиктов

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политика

00:00:26

[music]

00:00:40

[music]

00:00:52

15 o'clock Moscow time you are listening to

00:00:55

Echo watch a live guest My name is

00:00:57

Aidar Akhmadiev This program is personal

00:00:59

to you and today our guest is economist of the

00:01:02

Dean's Faculty of Economics of Moscow State University and

00:01:04

professor Alexandra Uzan Alexander

00:01:05

Alexandrovich Hello, Glad to

00:01:07

see you Good afternoon, listeners, our

00:01:10

listeners too very glad to see you,

00:01:13

you don’t often appear on the air of a living

00:01:16

nail And in general, and you know,

00:01:18

today a lot of topics have accumulated. Well,

00:01:20

before we move on to them,

00:01:22

traditional advertising so that we do

00:01:24

n’t have to be interrupted later on

00:01:25

shop.etance.media and books from the gift box

00:01:28

series published, all of them in a

00:01:30

single copy There

00:01:33

are Deakins and Dante and Nabokov and Balzacs in

00:01:36

general, uh, anyone is completely up to date uh,

00:01:38

such convenient editions Yes, they can be given as a

00:01:40

gift. They are very beautiful. Or you can

00:01:43

ask when you order on the site

00:01:45

for one of the leading signed it for an

00:01:47

autograph if you need it And

00:01:50

then, in addition to these books, gentlemen of the

00:01:52

solar series, the book Nicholas, the

00:01:54

dynastic documents of the Romanovs, already with a

00:01:56

seal from Echo, the book was written on the basis of an in-

00:01:58

depth study of archival materials, it is

00:02:01

dedicated to the study of the family secrets of the

00:02:02

house of the Romanovs and the efforts of Emperor

00:02:05

Nicholas of his agents on the search for the selection and

00:02:08

classification of documents related to them

00:02:10

the authors This is Alexey Marokhin

00:02:13

looking at this pistol The legacy of

00:02:15

Alexander I of his inner circle

00:02:18

Nikolai dynastic documents of the

00:02:20

Romanovs

00:02:23

shop.dilettantes.media go and

00:02:25

order repent in stock And

00:02:27

Alexander Alexandrovich you know I would

00:02:29

like to not even completely start

00:02:31

from what is happening now Yes, here are

00:02:33

the trends for you to follow because

00:02:35

all the news is interconnected.

00:02:38

This is very important to understand where it

00:02:40

comes from. Legs are actually from the very beginning.

00:02:43

I would like to talk about the economy;

00:02:45

transformation of economic institutions in the

00:02:47

conditions of sanctions; partial international

00:02:49

isolation. For example, Kazakhstan following

00:02:52

Turkey and has begun to tighten

00:02:54

control over trade turnover from Russia, from

00:02:56

April 1 it will become mandatory to issue

00:02:58

accompanying invoices for goods,

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you know. This is already what I understand. As far as I

00:03:05

understand, this is a barrier to parallel

00:03:07

imports, which has become very relevant in

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recent months for obvious reasons. This is

00:03:12

what we can expect. These are the overlaps

00:03:15

these barriers or something

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Let's realize that this is a multi-way

00:03:21

game because the

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first phase of the economic war Let's

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say frankly 22 years. It was such a blow

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to the economy 10

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which cannot be said

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because they, first of all, made the

00:03:50

business very worried and move in search of

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new logical chains they were

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built secondly, after all, the gross

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product, frankly speaking, did not grow as in

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21, but in 21 there was quite a decent

00:04:06

increase in terms of almost 5.7

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And in 22 it decreased Yes, not by 10 percent,

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but now a new phase has begun

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because in my opinion, the place of such a

00:04:25

blow is two-fold,

00:04:28

actions are aimed at budget revenues of the

00:04:33

Russian budget, the income based on this is

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gas oil trade,

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as far as I remember, this is 43 percent of

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budget income for 22 years, and the second blow is precisely

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related to attempts to establish secondary

00:04:55

imports where they, let me remind you, that

00:04:59

this probably began from

00:05:03

Turkey

00:05:05

Although before this there were still sanctions on

00:05:08

films from Taiwan and Armenia,

00:05:13

Kazakhstan is reacting in an obvious way, that is,

00:05:16

of course, a

00:05:17

wave of such

00:05:19

costs is rising, but this is not an

00:05:25

economist’s forecast, which was best expressed by

00:05:29

our wonderful human rights activist,

00:05:31

beloved Mikhailovna Alekseeva, who we have been

00:05:33

friends for many years, she said

00:05:36

Everything sooner or later get settled more or

00:05:40

less badly

00:05:41

Will these barriers be new barriers Yes,

00:05:46

life in Russia will become more expensive Yes it

00:05:51

will become because it is

00:05:54

impossible to concrete

00:05:58

build such a Chinese wall around the

00:06:03

longest countries in the world no one on the

00:06:07

other side the penetration of

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Russian goods and services will

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continue but through additional

00:06:14

intermediaries of the chain

00:06:19

in the continuation there will be, I would say, these

00:06:24

trends will change more for the worse than for the

00:06:28

better, but I’m thinking slowly But it’s

00:06:34

not only Russia that is interested in the continuation,

00:06:36

probably also Kazakhstan, and Turkey

00:06:38

too, and beneficial to that side, that’s right.

00:06:42

I think that they will continue

00:06:45

Turkey as well. and Kazakhstan will simply need to

00:06:49

build another one next to the blocked chain.

00:06:54

This is in order to protect itself from

00:06:57

secondary sanctions, it’s just such

00:06:59

a decoration that turns out, of course,

00:07:05

technical companies that are created for

00:07:09

some period in order to

00:07:11

do something much more complex problems to

00:07:13

solve when the

00:07:15

current flow of goods and there are many who

00:07:19

sell this; the source cannot be blocked, and sometimes there are

00:07:22

elements of

00:07:25

complex equipment, unique machines, and so

00:07:28

on, which are sold by

00:07:31

Western manufacturers

00:07:34

personally to those who are

00:07:37

engaged in this type of activity, and

00:07:40

here they find a workaround;

00:07:42

they make a new enterprise in Turkey

00:07:46

that supposedly works for two months, then

00:07:48

she orders equipment for herself. and then

00:07:50

this equipment ends up in Russia, it’s

00:07:54

difficult and expensive Yes, but trade

00:08:00

works, will the

00:08:01

Russian state lose

00:08:04

control over the market because it won’t go This

00:08:06

is the Lion’s, or at least just a

00:08:08

significant part into the shadow sector

00:08:10

Because when the whole world is trying,

00:08:13

especially in our time Yes, everyone is

00:08:15

deceived by developed information technologies

00:08:18

and they themselves are losing control. It

00:08:23

seems to me that the authorities are not against it

00:08:26

because Please note that until

00:08:30

February 24, 21, the position of, for example, the

00:08:34

Central Bank on cryptocurrencies was

00:08:37

strictly against

00:08:45

servicing cryptocurrencies of this kind. It would be

00:08:49

difficult to put it this way organized

00:08:51

turnover

00:08:54

Therefore, yes, in order to

00:08:59

achieve a result, the authorities go to the extent that

00:09:03

along some lines control is removed

00:09:07

or weakened, I will tell you over the course of

00:09:11

22 years, the so-called regulatory

00:09:14

costs in Russia have decreased

00:09:18

and then what they are trying to do next, for example, is to

00:09:22

analyze some economic

00:09:25

articles so as not threaten with prison so that

00:09:27

you can pay for the damage, close the

00:09:30

criminal case now, too, reducing

00:09:33

costs for business because otherwise it

00:09:36

will suffocate in this aggressive

00:09:38

environment, it’s hard

00:09:43

to live, what then are we seeing now, the

00:09:45

advantages for business, the disadvantages for the state,

00:09:48

for business from reducing these costs,

00:09:53

the state

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is starting since 15,

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she built a platform of

00:10:05

extremely high accuracy and

00:10:08

prevalence,

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and tax

00:10:12

flows in the country

00:10:15

grew faster than the gross product in

00:10:18

Russia,

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so Mishustin’s project is

00:10:23

of course a

00:10:27

leap through, I would say several

00:10:31

positions from the head of the Tax Service to the

00:10:34

head of government because he

00:10:36

really created the best digital system in the world I

00:10:41

’ll do the tax office, you know On what principle,

00:10:44

unlike his foreign colleagues

00:10:47

who tried to track the movement of

00:10:49

money,

00:10:51

and he and his team based their system on

00:10:54

tracking the movement of goods and services and

00:10:57

not money, in the end he hunted for

00:10:59

unfunded transactions And

00:11:03

the success of the real economic process exceeded

00:11:06

all expectations Therefore, with revenues

00:11:09

income was executed, not counting the

00:11:12

difficulties that are created by sanctions on

00:11:15

oil and gas,

00:11:17

or rather sanctions on oil and the decision on

00:11:20

gas, the rest of the crimes are

00:11:24

very courageous and therefore the platform sees enough of what is

00:11:27

happening on the territory of the Russian

00:11:28

Federation,

00:11:34

that is, one should not expect an increase in the

00:11:36

shadow sector the economy is

00:11:39

flowing there,

00:11:41

his sector will definitely

00:11:44

grow and strengthen in relations with

00:11:47

Kazakhstan, Armenia, Turkey, China.

00:11:51

Because the cushion

00:11:53

through which

00:11:57

sanctions are circumvented, because you can imagine, a brave soul comes out,

00:12:00

says

00:12:02

American sanctions. And screw them with

00:12:05

their European ones, I’m such a hero

00:12:07

now I’ll be

00:12:10

prohibited goods There are no such people to transport from China to Russia,

00:12:13

of course they leave,

00:12:17

so the

00:12:27

communications that go to Russia, the

00:12:31

Russian government has

00:12:34

formed a package of measures to ensure

00:12:36

financial sovereignty. You just

00:12:38

said that it is impossible to

00:12:40

build this Chinese wall along the entire long Russian border,

00:12:42

so the government seems to be

00:12:44

trying and they cover 5

00:12:47

areas of work, these measures range from an attempt to

00:12:49

restore Confidence in the Russian

00:12:50

financial market through at least

00:12:52

partial disclosure of information by the

00:12:54

issuer of securities to the digitalization of

00:12:57

financial transactions Tell us about this

00:12:59

financial sovereignty, it actually somehow

00:13:02

sounds very strange, it’s possible

00:13:08

Rider, this is what Zhvanetsky

00:13:12

called it called arguing until you’re hoarse about the taste of

00:13:15

the mouth with those who ate them, I have

00:13:17

n’t read these Aidar documents, I understand that

00:13:21

this is the style of

00:13:23

Echo of Moscow, talk about the latest

00:13:27

information.

00:13:28

No, just go back, they’ve been saying for a

00:13:31

very long time, not only financial ones, for a long time,

00:13:33

but I haven’t seen the documents you’re talking about,

00:13:36

so I haven’t seen them I won’t dare to comment on

00:13:38

documents that I haven’t

00:13:41

spoken with my finger, but

00:13:44

if we abstract from them in general,

00:13:46

such a concept as financial sovereignty

00:13:49

is like this, isolation from the world

00:13:51

economy

00:13:53

because the concept is

00:13:56

most likely to be written down,

00:14:04

of course, the degree of

00:14:07

organization we had was quite

00:14:10

high, as we discovered for ourselves in

00:14:13

twenty-first year This is probably an

00:14:16

attempt to reduce this degree of

00:14:19

globalization, and apparently to reduce it not

00:14:22

only in relation to the hostile West but

00:14:25

also to the friendly East. Because if

00:14:27

we are talking about sovereignty, it is unlikely that

00:14:30

sovereignty can consist in the fact that we,

00:14:32

for security, become provinces of

00:14:35

China so that we don’t want to.

00:14:38

respect for the Great and Ancient

00:14:40

State

00:14:41

Therefore,

00:14:43

reasoning like this, I would say that

00:14:47

probably behind this there should be an attempt to

00:14:49

increase the autonomy of actions and

00:14:52

security.

00:14:53

Is it possible

00:14:57

to have finances that are not connected with the

00:15:00

outside world? No, it’s not possible because they are

00:15:05

of their own nature and will have, you know,

00:15:09

to give up on they wrote to their Karbovanites while walking the

00:15:13

political Republic is

00:15:14

provided by the head of the one who

00:15:16

refuses to accept this is an

00:15:18

attempt to

00:15:23

simply get out of the big world financial life

00:15:26

completely, it

00:15:30

will not give results, but it seems to me that this is not what is being done

00:15:32

because there are very

00:15:35

serious modern projects like the

00:15:37

digital ruble and I must say that

00:15:40

the creation of a digital ruble looks like Russia is

00:15:43

ahead of the United States because the United States is also

00:15:46

dealing with the issue of the digital

00:15:49

dollar, you can tell for those

00:15:51

who do not understand the difference at all between a

00:15:52

digital ruble and a regular one, which

00:15:54

is in your pocket or on a card at the bank, what

00:15:58

it is, how it can be used and how

00:16:00

Russia can apply this in

00:16:02

today’s conditions,

00:16:04

you need to bring a special financier

00:16:08

because

00:16:10

I understand economics a little.

00:16:32

Yes, this

00:16:35

means look at what turns out, the

00:16:39

most

00:16:41

winning effective solutions over the

00:16:44

last five years were usually the

00:16:48

so-called platform solutions, that is,

00:16:51

when

00:16:52

strong, familiar operations

00:16:56

were brought to a digital platform

00:16:59

because there is no intermediary on the digital platform,

00:17:05

strictly speaking, you can imagine

00:17:08

financial life without banks,

00:17:10

there are people who say that there won’t

00:17:14

be a bank in 10-20 years because it’s a bank,

00:17:17

it trades money with

00:17:19

our money, it issues

00:17:22

loans to someone, it turns out this is some kind of... then you don’t

00:17:28

need this, because it

00:17:29

can be directly connected with the help of a

00:17:32

good search engine in seconds,

00:17:35

lending

00:17:39

will also provide an analysis of comparative risks and so

00:17:43

on, these platform solutions,

00:17:46

by the way, Russia and the circumstances

00:17:54

and difficult periodic times,

00:17:57

and in Russia the digital revolution of transformation has advanced very well,

00:18:02

is excellent

00:18:03

and digital ecosystems Yandex Sber now

00:18:08

mail

00:18:09

what I’m saying about the tax digital

00:18:12

platform and

00:18:14

carsharing in Moscow It’s on the order of magnitude more

00:18:18

than in other megacities and mobile banks

00:18:21

tinny spheres and so on

00:18:24

what’s the point on these platforms

00:18:29

the costs drop very sharply it’s very

00:18:33

cheap to contact each other friend and choose an

00:18:36

option.

00:18:38

In the end,

00:18:40

by the way, it is very important that people also trust

00:18:43

the platforms because there are

00:18:46

aggregator ratings. When

00:18:49

Yandex taxi has

00:18:56

these platform solutions, they think

00:19:00

further

00:19:02

unexpected growth of more than 5 percent of the

00:19:05

Russian economy in 21, which I

00:19:08

honestly didn’t expect because they

00:19:11

looked at the usual economic

00:19:14

stagnation

00:19:23

But it seems that the digital technological

00:19:26

shift is such a very serious one, it’s true that

00:19:29

I won’t spoil this rosy picture myself

00:19:32

because I’ll say later Well,

00:19:34

where do we get microprocesses or quickly

00:19:37

and now for these platforms for

00:19:41

search engines for servers

00:19:45

the problem,

00:19:46

see the

00:19:48

adventure Story about how to

00:19:52

pass something through a gray wife by creating

00:19:55

false technical companies,

00:19:58

you know, we see that these

00:20:02

technical companies They either transfer some of their

00:20:04

employees abroad and either

00:20:07

completely leave here or leave the

00:20:09

Russian market, that’s what you think,

00:20:11

given the extractiveness of economic

00:20:13

institutions in Russia,

00:20:15

we can predict that in in the near

00:20:18

future, due to rising costs with the

00:20:21

risks of expropriation of just the capital of the

00:20:24

company and simply sober-minded people,

00:20:27

technocrats will leave the country with their

00:20:30

business and together they will develop in

00:20:32

some Kazakhstan, we see it

00:20:33

now how global it will be,

00:20:49

firstly, let’s explain what an

00:20:52

extractive institution is, an

00:20:54

institution in general rules and ways of maintaining them

00:20:58

and these rules, firstly, they can be

00:21:01

formally prescribed in laws, and secondly, they

00:21:03

can be in human communication, this is

00:21:06

not the place for this

00:21:09

And also institutions can be

00:21:12

extractive, this is rent extracting in

00:21:15

Russia, as most

00:21:19

rules do in order to pumped out

00:21:22

and pumped up, let me remind you that in the 2000s,

00:21:25

a trillion

00:21:27

is not clear, only where because this is

00:21:31

the sum of the palaces,

00:21:40

and so we respect our friends, we

00:21:46

have an amazing country, not unique, there are

00:21:50

six countries in the world, as far as I remember,

00:21:51

where the human potential is very high

00:21:56

and the quality of institutions is usually very low.

00:22:00

They correspond to each other in countries

00:22:03

That is, if the institutions are bad, then there are

00:22:11

no especially educated and highly productive people there. How does this

00:22:14

happen, how can this be combined, the

00:22:16

meaning of some kind of behind-the-scenes handshake

00:22:19

conversations, what should you call it?

00:22:25

You say that we have these kinds of

00:22:27

institutions Yes, but closed extractive ones At the same time, the

00:22:30

human

00:22:31

development index is very high, how is this

00:22:34

combined? Why does this happen

00:22:38

because I say again,

00:22:41

no one is surprised when the quality and

00:22:45

quality

00:22:46

potential

00:22:50

in Russia is not so good, I can also say that the

00:22:58

truth is that it follows that

00:23:03

people leave the country for various reasons

00:23:06

because that

00:23:09

people of the 21st century do not find application in the

00:23:13

economy of the twentieth This is understandable, but

00:23:18

where we have the economy of the 21st century And these are

00:23:22

private state companies,

00:23:23

globally competitive

00:23:27

dew Yandex Kaspersky and so on there

00:23:32

Of course, such masks find application

00:23:34

because they would stand under the winds of

00:23:37

competition But here’s what markets they are not needed

00:23:41

It’s a headache to keep an intelligent

00:23:43

person who will give you advice

00:23:45

when you need to give bribes, they are

00:23:48

not

00:23:49

technologies, you understand Therefore, yes, there is

00:23:52

such a contradiction and of course

00:23:58

speculatively we must conclude that

00:24:01

something

00:24:03

must

00:24:04

prevail here or our quality will drop

00:24:08

human potential to the level of

00:24:11

this poor quality of rules or

00:24:15

institutions so that they

00:24:19

but I want to say that

00:24:23

in Russia there has been

00:24:26

a gap for decades

00:24:28

and people are leaving and new ones are

00:24:33

sprouting getting an education

00:24:35

becoming talented participants in a

00:24:37

natural process But we

00:24:42

cannot solve the problem with institutions,

00:24:46

I will try to explain why if if you want,

00:24:49

of course Let’s

00:24:51

solve this problem,

00:24:53

we saw here it’s not easy. We are in our field of

00:24:57

institutional economics, which I have been

00:25:00

studying for many years. 20 Let me

00:25:10

remind you of what I said that institutions

00:25:13

are formal, informal, on the one

00:25:15

hand,

00:25:20

shaking hands, this is good, this is bad, such a

00:25:23

surface part and huge underwater, this is a

00:25:26

huge underwater part of this is

00:25:28

culture,

00:25:30

and so,

00:25:32

according to our research with colleagues from

00:25:35

economics,

00:25:45

we found strange things in our

00:25:50

country

00:25:52

in terms of individualism and

00:25:55

collectivism, in terms of attitudes towards

00:25:58

what and how one can do. I

00:26:02

always express in one phrase what

00:26:03

individualism is because it’s better to

00:26:06

die low There’s no better way to say this phrase

00:26:08

Danila Aleksandrovich Granin told me, a

00:26:10

wonderful writer, discoverer of the scientific genre,

00:26:17

he told me many years ago. In

00:26:20

Russia, you can do a lot if you don’t

00:26:23

ask.

00:26:25

Individualists are people who

00:26:27

act without asking

00:26:29

characteristics.

00:26:37

another advantage they know how to

00:26:39

give themselves is also Yuri Mikhailovich

00:26:43

said that in Russia there are

00:26:45

cultural archetypes Denmark to

00:26:48

invest themselves in the business there in caring and not about the

00:26:53

city of the province and so on for

00:27:02

us and Russia, that is,

00:27:05

individualistic Russia, these are

00:27:06

megacities, here people live in them and

00:27:10

individualistic

00:27:11

The Urals Siberia The Far East also the North

00:27:14

Caucasus That is, all the areas where

00:27:17

they self-selected they came there

00:27:20

and come to the city, breaking away from their

00:27:23

community and Siberia, they are fleeing and mastering,

00:27:30

which means the

00:27:32

rest

00:27:34

What both Russia and Russia want, we know

00:27:38

What they want mainly is

00:27:47

participation socialism, justice,

00:27:49

redistribution, you understand, two

00:27:53

requests and how physics happens

00:27:57

because it is impossible to build institutions that

00:28:00

correspond to both

00:28:02

at the same time in the country and what we

00:28:05

have is such a system of manual

00:28:09

control and political manipulation

00:28:13

likes to rely on Russia,

00:28:17

approximately I would say three quarters of the

00:28:21

population and economically on Russia

00:28:24

because ours is engaged

00:28:25

technological breakthrough and so on,

00:28:27

so we most likely live in

00:28:31

such a gap when there

00:28:33

is intellectual potential to

00:28:37

move, but there is no such structure of life,

00:28:40

or we are talking about high-quality institutions

00:28:44

in order for the movement of real

00:28:47

truth to

00:28:50

be solved again, so this is very interesting,

00:28:53

but

00:28:56

it is not very much for conversations

00:29:02

Russia Federation

00:29:05

and what does this mean that in one region there

00:29:08

can be one

00:29:11

and in another another if of course the resources of

00:29:13

the regions

00:29:18

then different models can be built nearby, the

00:29:21

truth begins to tell me right away

00:29:29

but that the country is about to freeze in this

00:29:33

stagnation there is

00:29:40

and in same of two evils, they choose the lesser

00:29:43

where there is a niche a little bit.

00:29:46

I would choose,

00:29:48

we never choose at all.

00:29:52

Unfortunately, it may be between the

00:29:55

excellent option which has no disadvantages

00:29:58

No, everything is bright and healthy and the

00:30:02

bad option which can immediately kick us usually

00:30:06

we choose between four

00:30:07

options each of which Of the advantages

00:30:09

But look what the matter is, because everything is

00:30:12

tied up in political institutions, because it is

00:30:15

impossible to build an economic

00:30:18

institution and live in the world of the butterfly fairy

00:30:20

without changing political institutions And

00:30:23

here and here of course Here this

00:30:33

question is already so difficult

00:30:41

because

00:30:44

people are looking for Russia and Russia you

00:30:49

will be answered differently to the question What

00:30:52

political reforms are needed

00:30:54

and what political institutions are needed,

00:30:58

but at the same time we still want to live and

00:31:02

not in a divorce between one Russia and

00:31:05

another you Please note that it was

00:31:08

in 22 that this is

00:31:11

what we felt as a difference in

00:31:16

sociology, it was manifested by a very strict

00:31:19

difference in the attitude Because it happens,

00:31:22

that is, parents who happen

00:31:24

because how do a

00:31:26

significant part of people from Russia from

00:31:31

megacities relate, and so on Because

00:31:34

for them this is a drama because they were

00:31:37

included in the global world, they built

00:31:39

frontline companies, they left friends,

00:31:42

relatives

00:31:45

Well, it’s true that someone has made a colossal

00:31:47

career

00:31:48

and someone has made good capital for the

00:31:52

liberation of markets and enterprises by

00:31:55

foreign

00:31:57

aka Russia, listen to

00:32:02

Russia, they have

00:32:07

n’t got anything at all in 30 post-Soviet years, they haven’t been involved in it.

00:32:10

So I consider our wines to be a

00:32:15

historical past. periods is that we

00:32:18

understood the prosperity of the country as the rise where

00:32:22

it rises and people live very

00:32:26

differently and in different places and

00:32:29

in fact received nothing from the post-Soviet era

00:32:32

except a solution to the

00:32:35

problem of the deficit, you can buy it, you can’t sit

00:32:38

and it’s a

00:32:40

blatant injustice, that’s what they were doing

00:32:45

in Russia not

00:32:48

so, this is how you now interpret

00:32:51

yourself, but you have prepared them in order to

00:32:54

preserve these

00:32:56

economic institutions, of course, to prepare everything very

00:32:58

politically. I beg you

00:33:01

because, understand, and they understand, they have it with

00:33:05

us because this is also us, this is part of

00:33:08

us in Russia’s

00:33:10

relations to what is happening because

00:33:13

for them this is the Return of the world And

00:33:16

that we have finally found the source of

00:33:19

all our troubles, this is Anglo-Saxon

00:33:22

imperialism and we are fighting in defense of all the peoples of

00:33:25

the earth as in our time

00:33:29

and this is a different worldview, by the way, a

00:33:33

different economy will arise there Please

00:33:35

note that we have never paid that kind of

00:33:39

money on contracts in the army, compensation

00:33:43

for injuries upon death, social

00:33:48

benefits,

00:33:49

revitalization of the defense of the

00:33:51

industrial complex, it’s all

00:33:55

such a different economy, that’s why

00:33:59

I say that the differences that

00:34:03

we saw are rather how

00:34:05

theorists are busy with research there.

00:34:13

This is the difference it became in in the twenty-

00:34:16

second year it is clear In my opinion,

00:34:19

and from this I conclude that the future of

00:34:22

Russia depends on whether we manage to reconcile the two

00:34:25

countries

00:34:26

and unite in some kind of

00:34:30

common desires, whether we

00:34:34

succeed or not What do you think? Well,

00:34:37

firstly, such a problem is not only

00:34:39

we have it, I can name three more countries

00:34:42

in which for sure

00:34:44

Let’s sort it out with Russia That’s because

00:34:47

what will the

00:34:50

current Russian government bet on on maintaining these

00:34:54

institutions or on human development?

00:34:57

You want me to

00:35:00

predict what,

00:35:06

but I’m not interested, I’m not interested in what we we

00:35:09

'll make a bet with you. That's what we'll do with you,

00:35:13

we won't influence global

00:35:16

political processes. No, that's a lie,

00:35:18

now I'll tell you how, because of course, if

00:35:22

you and I consider this disunity

00:35:25

normal, first

00:35:27

disunity and Russia then the

00:35:31

disunity of people has grown because the

00:35:34

main disease

00:35:39

ability How

00:35:43

a thinker appears, other thinkers,

00:35:46

there is no compromise impossible

00:35:49

You see, in this situation, of course, with

00:35:53

you, it’s not that we don’t understand how for the future of the country,

00:36:00

but in general, I’m saying that it depends on

00:36:05

whether we are able to talk and

00:36:10

negotiate with people of a different view.

00:36:14

There you want other values

00:36:18

Much more depends on this than

00:36:21

on tomorrow or the day after tomorrow’s

00:36:23

decision of the government or the

00:36:26

presidential administration. You know, I would offer all the

00:36:31

Sisters by earrings there are more

00:36:35

than enough wines upstairs, but you know that we are

00:36:38

also not White and fluffy because we

00:36:42

believe that we must live this is the only way you do

00:36:44

n’t notice, a significant part of the country

00:36:46

wants to live differently, they have a different

00:36:48

idea of life, and

00:36:51

at the same time, you said that in the twenty-

00:36:54

second year

00:36:56

these contradictions in Russian

00:36:58

society became especially clearly visible, and not only did they become visible, but

00:37:00

also new contradictions appeared that

00:37:03

I personally don’t know how to

00:37:05

resolve this at all. For example, the relationship to

00:37:08

what is happening, let’s call it mildly, and

00:37:12

today in Russia we have to

00:37:14

move according to a stencil that is

00:37:16

drawn from above, and you and I

00:37:18

see what happens when one person

00:37:20

tries to take at least half a step

00:37:23

abroad this stencil, and so in

00:37:25

such and such conditions, it influences, look,

00:37:36

and I’m telling you that there are other

00:37:40

layers of relationships and

00:37:43

ideas about how to live, how to

00:37:47

work, how to manage your

00:37:49

activities. Let’s go back to

00:37:52

economics because Yes, I won’t

00:37:56

argue about the fact that you say that

00:38:00

Yes there are stencils there is a danger of

00:38:02

retreat and crossing the border And now

00:38:05

let's look at the other side I'm an

00:38:07

economist

00:38:09

obliged to look at what is happening Russia for

00:38:13

22 years has shown

00:38:19

that the country has a huge non-

00:38:22

military

00:38:24

economic force called the Russian

00:38:27

market I'll be honest We

00:38:31

gave bad forecasts in March

00:38:37

we economists doubted the extent to which

00:38:40

ours are economical because

00:38:43

here is a monopoly, here is an increase in the role of

00:38:46

the state, that competition does not work well,

00:38:49

the market is not in vain, the

00:38:52

efforts of the early 90s were included in this whole

00:38:56

story, because even where

00:38:58

state-owned businesses operate, there is

00:39:02

Sberbank or there is dew and so on and

00:39:05

on in fact they acted They were

00:39:09

not waiting for government directives and

00:39:14

this high survival rate is based on the

00:39:17

living property of the Russian,

00:39:21

but can you please give an example of

00:39:23

the symptoms of this these market relations

00:39:27

Yes, so that the

00:39:29

hand of the state is really not visible here

00:39:33

when it started it

00:39:58

turned out that over Not intervene in the market

00:40:02

and then people rebuilt the supply chain in three months

00:40:05

in three months Ida

00:40:08

is an amazing thing

00:40:11

with decrees You would have been writing instructions for a year and a half

00:40:14

and

00:40:18

checking execution But without this the

00:40:21

markets worked, so you understand I

00:40:26

believe that being in a

00:40:28

difficult historical period, we are in a

00:40:31

difficult historical period

00:40:34

you still have to see with

00:40:37

both eyes, first of all, to see what

00:40:40

we have

00:40:42

because well,

00:40:46

Russia has reached

00:40:50

the point of a market economy

00:40:52

that the country is not giving away and, as it were, the

00:40:55

government

00:40:59

remains in Russia. This is the ability

00:41:04

to operate a technology company

00:41:08

because there are many missing elements

00:41:11

because of

00:41:14

[applause]

00:41:16

we must Personally do something so

00:41:19

that if not tomorrow, then

00:41:22

the day after tomorrow in Russia the day will be better if

00:41:25

anything because these relations

00:41:29

between the two parts of the country they are being treated

00:41:33

In my opinion than

00:41:34

With a long look you can’t

00:41:37

look at everyone as of March 24, blind people

00:41:42

because we are watching all the time But the

00:41:44

presidential elections will now be

00:41:46

information

00:41:49

God be with them, try to look

00:41:52

10 years ahead, set

00:41:56

goals there to understand what should be done for the

00:41:59

children, secondly,

00:42:04

Trust, economic growth happens

00:42:07

where people are

00:42:09

on the platforms people trust each other

00:42:12

strangers trust and they are the authorities

00:42:16

And each other because we have the main

00:42:20

disease here in Russia,

00:42:42

you know, maybe people really

00:42:45

trust each other But they do this

00:42:48

because the processes are established, these

00:42:50

platforms are created in turn by the

00:42:52

creators of these platforms if To

00:42:54

put it simply, They also must be

00:42:56

sure that what they created

00:42:58

tomorrow will not cease to be theirs and

00:43:02

will not go into the hands of the state or some

00:43:04

structures near the state simply

00:43:07

because someone wanted it, there must

00:43:09

be a basis, a law, the

00:43:12

rules of the game,

00:43:17

it’s best to the fact that the rules

00:43:21

are followed

00:43:22

on what does not happen

00:43:30

Well, what about these platforms platforms

00:43:34

Will

00:43:40

first talk about institutions in

00:43:43

real life

00:44:00

with their very powerful economies,

00:44:03

listen to the Yandex platform who built the

00:44:07

ministers and deputy heads of the

00:44:11

presidential administration or something No of course of course

00:44:14

not These are the boys and girls

00:44:18

there 90s who deployed

00:44:22

this kind of thing And not only they

00:44:26

mean what they do, they also make

00:44:31

digital institutions and I want to say that

00:44:36

any government They are not

00:44:38

happy at all are being implemented

00:44:40

Look, they drove them in China Jack

00:44:44

why Well, because

00:44:47

such a digital economy has grown, which is

00:44:52

huge where there are large turnovers of many people

00:44:54

and somehow they don’t really notice

00:44:58

the CCP or its constant there

00:45:05

also threatened with a finger that we will now

00:45:11

divide your Empire because well, how do

00:45:20

institutions appear that are not controlled to such an extent by the government

00:45:23

because the decreasing laws were written like that and we

00:45:27

have a

00:45:28

custom one agreement we have our own

00:45:31

Constitution on a platform

00:45:33

which is also more difficult to change, by the way,

00:45:36

than the Constitution we came to this

00:45:40

Look, if That is, it turns out

00:45:42

if you simplify it very much If

00:45:45

you create some kind of platform, digital

00:45:47

your institutions obey us If you don’t

00:45:50

do this, then you don’t

00:45:52

belong here, we’ll block you, we’ll

00:45:53

put you in jail, we’ll kick you out any way you want, but

00:45:56

you won’t work here.

00:45:58

Yes, of course, in the

00:46:06

business sector. It always exists, the

00:46:09

government always tries to say what you

00:46:14

do as we said or we won’t

00:46:17

give you business.

00:46:19

If so, excuse me, please, okay

00:46:22

if so, but when the rules are not written, this is

00:46:25

completely different.

00:46:27

Let's look at the real results

00:46:30

of these confrontations,

00:46:33

unblocked in the digital world. I

00:46:37

beg you, it will practically show nothing, not

00:46:41

because the decision to block was not

00:46:44

made, but the decision was made via telegram,

00:46:49

only us deputies correspond in telegram with

00:46:54

these no, we don’t, and so on and so forth,

00:46:58

just everyone is watching, even without a VPN.

00:47:01

Forgive me. Therefore, it’s not such a

00:47:04

simple thing to build a Firewall, just

00:47:07

block it, because you

00:47:10

can threaten a lot with your finger, but if you are not

00:47:12

able to really

00:47:14

technically, technologically and

00:47:17

intellectually build walls, I

00:47:26

built them in many ways,

00:47:29

but this not an obvious operation It’s not a fact that

00:47:33

we will succeed in the same thing, therefore,

00:47:40

faster than it seems,

00:47:43

some struggle between future options continues here.

00:47:54

Well, let’s say we don’t have much time

00:47:58

left about civil society. Maybe

00:48:01

we’ll talk too because this is your

00:48:03

area of scientific interests. I was rather talking

00:48:05

about the social contract Come on, yes

00:48:08

please, this is very interesting,

00:48:09

especially today, it’s especially interesting,

00:48:11

we talk a lot about the social

00:48:14

contract. This is what it was like yesterday and what it is like

00:48:16

today,

00:48:20

that when I talked about the social contract 20 years ago,

00:48:24

people said

00:48:27

what nonsense, then they started saying something

00:48:30

about it there is now they say who does

00:48:33

n’t know this,

00:48:37

who

00:48:39

signs this is an exchange of expectations

00:48:42

between people and the authorities about

00:48:46

what the basic rules about

00:48:48

property will be,

00:48:50

in my opinion, as we had before

00:48:55

during the first decade of the 21st century,

00:49:00

we have an

00:49:01

actual agreement and what Gleb

00:49:03

Povozki said don’t call it a

00:49:06

contract Let’s call it a deal

00:49:08

Call it a deal It’s still an exchange,

00:49:10

it’s an exchange of expectations,

00:49:12

most people say you don’t mean

00:49:17

the state to me, I have a family, here’s a

00:49:20

business, here’s a job, here’s my

00:49:23

religion And here’s my political beliefs,

00:49:25

you’re rushing here and I won’t meddle

00:49:28

in your affairs, whether you want to choose

00:49:32

a position or not,

00:49:35

make an elected governor if you want not to,

00:49:38

but don’t meddle with me because

00:49:41

we won this autonomy. This is

00:49:45

post-Soviet and I would say that such an

00:49:49

agreement was in place

00:49:51

from 2000 to

00:49:54

2011, we saw it in its squares swamp

00:49:59

when they say that this exchange

00:50:02

of expectations was violated by the authorities there is no

00:50:05

power

00:50:07

who came out

00:50:13

people who

00:50:23

were intangible modernization

00:50:25

democratization

00:50:27

three years after that I want to tell you the

00:50:30

income of the population fell

00:50:33

and the support of the authorities

00:50:37

No, sorry, the fall reaches the population

00:50:40

14

00:50:42

But the support of the authorities for three years you

00:50:45

say this society violated the agreement

00:50:47

Well, wait, you were just talking

00:50:49

about

00:50:50

society, after all, the agreement exists for

00:50:53

something. Yes, I’m saying that the initiative for a

00:50:57

new agreement was shown then by society.

00:50:59

I’ll tell you why.

00:51:03

Wait. Why did they defend it?

00:51:08

Well, what about in the 90s, when according to

00:51:12

you According to this agreement, this agreement was taking shape.

00:51:14

These people who came out to Bolotnaya Square in the

00:51:17

eleventh year, there was no agreement.

00:51:19

Well, or after the country when it

00:51:22

was formed, it was formed in the early 2000s at

00:51:26

the beginning. Well, good, even so, okay, it does

00:51:28

n’t really change the essence of the matter. In my opinion,

00:51:32

these people had of their representatives in

00:51:35

parliament, at least in the eleventh

00:51:37

year, the

00:51:39

doors slammed and now they came out, they

00:51:42

say, but how did this clause work in the

00:51:44

social contract at the beginning

00:51:45

of the 2000s? Well, at least somehow it got to work, but

00:51:47

now where

00:51:49

you see one line is really from the

00:52:00

90s because that there was manipulation in the

00:52:04

elections of 95-96

00:52:07

Let

00:52:15

me tell you that

00:52:17

people in 9193 making a historical

00:52:22

turn They wanted what

00:52:27

formally they would say democracy will be

00:52:30

free

00:52:33

10 years have passed 15 years have passed with a free

00:52:36

market not very much democracy is even worse and for

00:52:38

some reason people are not protesting the masses

00:52:41

because they got another, they wanted to get away

00:52:44

from the economy of scarcity in society, they

00:52:47

got it in the 2000s. And then

00:52:51

people said correctly. Well, okay,

00:52:54

I solved this problem. What values are higher

00:52:57

than a set of goods in a supermarket? Are

00:53:04

you talking about both Russias or about

00:53:06

Russia, of course? basically it

00:53:09

was And so Russia said what

00:53:13

values \u200b\u200bYes, modernization is

00:53:15

correct, after three years of thinking and losing

00:53:21

support, the authorities said listen to the

00:53:23

values I have

00:53:30

14 years of people have steel

00:53:34

and the support of the authorities

00:53:37

from 14 to 18 years before the pension reform I

00:53:41

believe we have already acted another deal another

00:53:45

Exchange another social contract

00:53:47

geopolitical that is, we give away part of

00:53:51

our income every tenth level for

00:53:54

what a sense of belonging the

00:53:57

great content that is there in Syria in

00:54:01

Libya Venezuela

00:54:04

then there was a pension reform so to

00:54:07

speak

00:54:09

[music]

00:54:10

low declining Trust

00:54:14

could not be restored to what How do you

00:54:17

think

00:54:20

22 years when this geopolitical

00:54:25

contract We are a great superpower

00:54:30

this is a

00:54:31

value proposition of the power of the population

00:54:34

I should have accepted how beautiful

00:54:38

Say mainly to Russia

00:54:41

and it began to acquire its own institutions

00:54:44

because you need to give money to the

00:54:49

population to fight inequality Yes, but

00:54:51

this can be done in different ways, you can give

00:54:54

children a lot of family ones. And you can give them, for

00:54:58

example, to military members of their families.

00:55:23

where the red Chertanovo is

00:55:26

now often used Yes, this is

00:55:27

the wording

00:55:32

of the first

00:55:35

eternal contracts of this kind

00:55:39

there are no

00:55:42

limiters 2 one

00:55:44

resource limiter But because here it is still necessary

00:55:48

not only with words. Here you need

00:55:52

the reliability of this new thing to pay

00:55:56

money

00:55:57

to support Yes

00:56:00

and the second limiter

00:56:03

is value because Well, you see, if

00:56:07

they tell you that this is a superpower, then it

00:56:10

must

00:56:11

confirm this all the time,

00:56:19

everything is clear, everything is very clear, and I think the

00:56:24

last question is already Time is running out,

00:56:26

tell me, with some

00:56:29

socio-political changes,

00:56:31

when

00:56:32

will the one who concluded the agreement

00:56:35

from above change, so let’s say

00:56:37

that it will not be or That's how it is then, the

00:56:39

war of everyone against everyone when there

00:56:42

is no such a social contract is a

00:56:44

natural state, I’ll be

00:56:50

honest, I don’t know because

00:56:55

history in general is very capricious at home, she

00:56:59

presents unexpected surprises and not

00:57:02

when you get this surprise from her,

00:57:06

but our business, I would say, is to be prepared for

00:57:11

different options for the development of the situation, not

00:57:14

as sacrificial animals, but

00:57:17

as people who intend to live in this country,

00:57:20

raise their grandchildren’s children and

00:57:24

influence how they live and develop

00:57:32

Alexander Azan institutional

00:57:35

economist, Dean’s

00:57:36

Faculty of Economics, Moscow State University The professor was

00:57:38

personally yours today My name is Aidar

00:57:40

Akhmadiev Thank you for such a

00:57:43

rich

00:57:45

Lev Shlosberg after us in the program

00:57:48

Minority Report with Anton Orek

00:57:50

as the host, don’t switch,

00:57:52

goodbye

Description:

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