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Video tags
Subtitles
Russian
00:00:02
Inga Misery Abbas Gallyamov is in touch with me00:00:04
and below I welcome you00:00:06
graphics in your opinion why has00:00:10
everything changed so much in a week because again00:00:12
they even talked about the fact that the issue of referendums will be00:00:15
left on the table for now always of course lik00:00:19
rent Bach for now not from the entire00:00:21
territory of the regions, or first from Luhansk00:00:25
and Donetsk, there are Zaporizhia and the Kherson region,00:00:29
then again all these statements, even on the00:00:33
20th, Erdogan in an interview says that00:00:36
Putin I said that he wants to00:00:38
finish this as quickly as possible and here I was00:00:41
looking for such a level from that how- it00:00:44
worked out,00:00:45
but look, it began to consist of two parts:00:00:49
referendums and00:00:53
mass mobilization with which one we’ll start,00:00:56
which one will be the first through the holes00:01:00
in parts of the referendum charts,00:01:04
indeed literally just a00:01:07
few days before this00:01:08
decision was made to support the referendum00:01:10
yesterday,00:01:11
Kremlin sources convinced00:01:15
the journalist that the referendum and00:01:17
put on hold as they said from the00:01:22
Kherson and Zaporozhye regions, even00:01:25
the political strategists who came to00:01:27
organize this referendum left,00:01:30
which means, moreover, they said00:01:33
sources said that the trend and the00:01:36
Turkish secretary general of00:01:40
United Russia slapped the head there for announcing the date of00:01:43
November 4 if no one authorized00:01:47
to do this and it was said that in fact00:01:51
he would come up with it later on the back burner, then00:01:54
it so happened that the00:01:57
subject volume of the control object suddenly00:02:00
rebelled and became the subject of these blows, having previously00:02:05
looked at what happened in the00:02:08
Kharkov region,00:02:10
but Russia did not flee, leaving everyone to the00:02:12
laboratory assistants to the mercy of fate they00:02:14
extrapolated all this to themselves,00:02:16
imagined what00:02:18
would happen to them now and decided that it was time to take00:02:22
their own hands, so to speak, the00:02:23
salvation of drowning people was the work of the drowning people themselves,00:02:25
and if before that they obediently from the panel did00:02:29
what they were told in the Kremlin, that is, they were00:02:30
simple puppets then then they suddenly became00:02:33
active and brought this00:02:35
space into public space and began to mean that here the00:02:36
people want a referendum and a public00:02:39
chamber there, they are just some kind,00:02:41
but and so on,00:02:43
it means they didn’t just drive the Kremlin and the00:02:46
situation by bringing it to the public plane00:02:48
where he00:02:50
couldn’t do anything differently,00:02:54
so they are trying to insure00:02:57
themselves, that is, let you, okay, on the00:02:59
rock the Kremlin is there above the people there is a scab00:03:01
where they give00:03:03
a slap in the face, but at least there00:03:07
will be at least some kind of anchor until after00:03:09
the referendums, maybe they they won’t escape as00:03:11
dashingly as they escaped near Kharkov,00:03:13
you understand, they are for themselves these LDPR, they00:03:16
come up with some kind of insurance for themselves,00:03:19
and then the last lisette of vodka00:03:21
excavations of Kherson to the point that the authorities,00:03:24
which do not control,00:03:25
that is, everyone and the laboratory assistants decided to00:03:28
take care of their own salvation00:03:29
on their own they don’t trust00:03:31
Russia anymore, that’s what happened, you know, that00:03:34
is, the cream just isn’t with him anymore, he’s no longer carried with the00:03:37
flow, he no longer dared00:03:40
Skype, well, row against the tide, yes,00:03:47
without me, they married me, what is called00:03:50
tayto, for many years00:03:52
he acted in the mode of sailing and abandoned,00:03:55
but suddenly this lipstick rouge in, or00:04:03
Putin has lost the ability to take active00:04:06
action, he is simply floating with the flow,00:04:08
he is no longer able to00:04:10
row against and even to the side,00:04:13
yes, he is just trying to stay00:04:16
afloat, but in principle, a series of events is already00:04:18
being formed, Putin himself has ceased to be the00:04:22
leader, he is already being followed that's what we're talking about00:04:25
and a similar story a similar story00:04:27
happened from00:04:30
mobilization by resisting it for a long time for six months,00:04:33
but in the end00:04:36
the situation took him to where but either00:04:38
right now defeat and loss or00:04:44
mobilization with the risk of an internal00:04:47
revolution but with little chance00:04:50
of salvation I I think that00:04:53
he’s not so much counting on this00:04:56
cannon fodder, fresh in the military sense00:04:59
of the word, that is, it’s not like he’s hoping00:05:03
to stop the weight with the help of these00:05:06
recruits, I don’t really00:05:08
imagine how this can be done if00:05:11
you’ve dealt00:05:14
with the professional00:05:16
contract soldiers there before00:05:18
Why are they suddenly stopping in front of00:05:20
unfired00:05:23
civilians?00:05:27
I think that his task is00:05:32
to demonstrate his readiness00:05:34
to escalate so that the Ukrainians,00:05:38
seeing his decisive attitude, his00:05:40
readiness to risk white,00:05:43
can no longer exclude themselves from00:05:45
inflicting what he will inflict a nuclear00:05:48
strike is the next step after mobilization,00:05:49
mobilization will not work,00:05:52
it means00:05:54
nuclear weapons are coming, and now in Ukraine they00:05:56
are debating whether he will strike00:05:59
or not, there is a risk that he00:06:01
will be removed or they are bluffing for a day and the very fact00:06:05
that he went to mobilize should00:06:07
see the Ukrainian in the fact that there are risks00:06:10
and then there should be a voice of00:06:14
reason dachshund who will say listen let’s00:06:16
not lead to sin let’s00:06:18
really rather than negotiate but to00:06:19
hell with the psychos of this yes but still it00:06:23
means I don’t want to burn up the stacks so00:06:25
to speak of a nuclear war and that’s why here00:06:29
it is but this is his traditional strategy in00:06:31
any difficult situation, he raises00:06:33
the stakes in the hope that the00:06:35
other side will be more00:06:37
prudent and turn away to00:06:40
avoid a head-on collision,00:06:41
he simply presses on the gas and rushes forward00:06:44
in the hope that he is more crazy, that00:06:47
side is less crazy,00:06:49
so I think so the main point of00:06:53
mobilization is to demonstrate to the00:06:55
Ukrainians, and to the West too, that he’s crazy, probably probably00:07:02
probably all the same,00:07:09
you know this group, for me now the indicator is00:07:11
literally before ours in an interview with wool00:07:14
la Facebook and one young lady who has00:07:17
quite a lot of subscribers and usually one and a00:07:21
half thousand Laikov wrote just00:07:24
such a panicked post about the fact that a nuclear00:07:27
war could happen and that means now we00:07:30
need to sit down at the negotiating table to reach00:07:32
some compromises here, both different00:07:35
Ukrainian or Russian Ukrainian00:07:36
Ukrainian Ukrainian about the fact that well,00:07:40
we’re all going to burn and her the post00:07:44
gained as many as 38 likes within a few hours,00:07:47
so I think this in a00:07:49
sense00:07:50
shows that they are00:07:55
determined to put pressure there no00:07:58
matter what, in any00:08:02
case, what I see is00:08:04
absolutely true, that is, mobilization and00:08:07
issues and nuclear war, they of course00:08:11
know just like you know that it00:08:13
will come at some point and00:08:16
you are driving away these thoughts from you, it comes, in00:08:19
principle, I understand that well, how would this00:08:22
happen regarding a nuclear00:08:25
strike, I won’t say, I hope that it won’t00:08:27
happen after all, I don’t know what he thinks signatures of00:08:30
the president, but it seems to me that society will00:08:33
not accept any negotiations now;00:08:36
in principle, there is a logic in all this; I00:08:40
myself have repeatedly when00:08:41
Russian journalists ask me00:08:43
how the Ukrainians will react to this; I myself have00:08:46
repeatedly expressed the thought that judging00:08:48
by the data in the photo, the question I I see00:08:50
that in Ukraine the society00:08:53
there is extremely determined00:08:55
and00:08:57
yes, but for now I’m no hello there is no00:08:59
fatigue of readiness to00:09:03
slow down there, so to speak, at00:09:07
least we fix it at the level of00:09:09
quantitative surveys I don’t see00:09:11
demobilization there is no and it would be strange00:09:13
if it happened because,00:09:16
in fact, the Ukrainians are00:09:19
new, so you caught luck by the tail, yes,00:09:22
in principle, you are now making history, you00:09:28
are beating the army of a tyrant whom the00:09:32
whole world is considered to be afraid of, then you are now00:09:37
essentially performing, you find yourself on such a00:09:41
historical stage where great world history is being made00:09:45
Ukrainians,00:09:47
but a small nation up to a00:09:50
quantitative extent, have a00:09:52
very complicated history, that is, they00:09:54
had their own state powers, well, in00:09:57
general, for fairly00:09:59
short periods of time,00:10:01
for the most part, they were still00:10:06
either00:10:07
formed until permanently, either there under00:10:11
Poland and then under an avs lease or a00:10:15
gift from the synod, that is under large00:10:16
empires00:10:19
itself forever,00:10:21
but00:10:24
somewhere there your ipad field is ripening, you can00:10:27
say Poland for the first time found itself on00:10:28
the proscenium where the whole world is looking00:10:31
from there in the far east to the far00:10:36
west and of00:10:38
course such things00:10:40
inspire, but only when you00:10:42
write history with your own hand you begin00:10:45
to think in historical categories and00:10:47
in this situation, all the current difficulties,00:10:50
well, it’s a sin to say so, yes, because speeches00:10:53
and living people who die, but00:10:57
I’ll take this sin upon myself, in this00:11:00
sense, of course, you have feelings00:11:03
but are ready to make huge sacrifices00:11:07
because, well there, in the end, we will all00:11:09
die sooner or later, but someone will die00:11:11
ingloriously and someone will go down in history,00:11:14
this may not even be left for00:11:17
thousands of years, just like the heroes of the00:11:20
Greco-Persian wars of the time in educational00:11:22
history, their names are registered and we00:11:25
are studying them and this is the feeling, but it00:11:29
certainly exists, the Ukrainians cannot but00:11:31
exist, because Putin has been a00:11:34
soloist on this world stage for too long and00:11:39
and and start beating you at least00:11:43
such a universal evil, but this is what is00:11:46
called priceless, so I’m like that00:11:49
what you are saying, I basically00:11:51
don’t understand inside, I’m saying, I would even be surprised00:11:54
if it were somehow a little bit differently00:11:58
given for the nation, this is a way00:12:01
to self-realize, finally, after those00:12:05
hundreds of years of our history when we00:12:07
patients were under some kind of cover then the00:12:09
oppression that it always didn’t work out for us there,00:12:12
but finally here she is, this is our00:12:15
moment, our lucky chance and00:12:18
and00:12:19
and go in this sense, of course,00:12:22
Putin’s bet is that the Ukrainians will now run there clutching their00:12:25
heads,00:12:26
wailing with the words that means everything00:12:29
is lost, everything is lost but it may not00:12:31
work in the elections, there was no choice,00:12:34
so he took a risk, he took a very00:12:37
serious risk, you need to understand that but protest00:12:41
sentiments in Russian society will now00:12:42
fly up, now to those dissatisfied with the00:12:47
liberals and those who have joined them, too, in00:12:51
general, a lot, give up to a third of the population,00:12:53
but after all, this third was not enough to00:12:56
overthrow the regime, now00:12:58
former fans will join them,00:12:59
because his conditions of his00:13:03
relationship with fans with this from your00:13:07
own social base with those very00:13:09
deep people were precisely the00:13:10
conditions for the social control of00:13:13
which when I concluded with him, the meaning00:13:16
was that guys, let’s do this,00:13:19
I provide you with a more or less00:13:22
decent00:13:23
standard of living, which means there is a00:13:25
feeling of belonging to a great power,00:13:28
and in return you give me the right to make00:13:30
politics as and what is not necessary, that is,00:13:32
you are very much a politician or this this is not not yours,00:13:35
this is mine, and people agreed, but now,00:13:39
instead of the well-being of which00:13:42
recently there has been less and less00:13:44
from an economic point of view, well, at00:13:46
least there was a feeling of belonging00:13:47
to a great power; the chair is now00:13:50
simultaneously a blow on both counts after00:13:52
Kharkov to k k k k k k k k a great00:13:54
power there with their heels sparkling, they ran away, but00:13:57
they still saw the00:13:59
deepest disappointment in this sense, it00:14:01
turned out to be fakes, it turned out to be Willy Willy, they outgrow the00:14:05
chatter of tropes and00:14:08
and plus even into everyday comfort there when they00:14:11
take you off the sofa and are on fire, come on,00:14:13
these mean cask model 61 years old, those00:14:16
old armored personnel carriers get in and drive there from the heavy00:14:18
Mars and will meet you, but this is anything,00:14:21
this is not everyday comfort, so now a00:14:24
huge number of people feel that Putin00:14:27
tore up the social contract, threw it at00:14:29
the request, simply put, and00:14:31
these people, of course, are now indignant and00:14:38
can boldly predict the already absolutely00:14:41
guaranteed sharp drop in the ratings of the00:14:43
decline in legitimacy, that is, it will00:14:44
now become incredibly difficult for Putin to be elected in the twenty-fourth year,00:14:50
this is the first and secondly, the protests may00:14:53
begin right away before waiting 2 4 years straight00:14:56
chiral what is called today at 700:14:58
o’clock already there the cry went out on the Internet at 700:15:01
pm local time,00:15:03
people are going to go out in the squares00:15:05
of their cities, but ladies today00:15:08
you forgot to contact me, I’m just for00:15:10
our viewers that there have already been single00:15:12
pickets in different cities, people00:15:17
have already been packed, and such more numerous pickets,00:15:20
in principle, it’s time to drive them away Let's see00:15:22
what will really happen at night,00:15:23
maybe it will become more active,00:15:26
I think that today, if you don't00:15:29
expect sudden explosions, you know,00:15:30
most people still need00:15:33
time to comprehend00:15:34
what they saw on TV, that is, to00:15:36
transfer the television reality to00:15:38
themselves personally to shift yes it takes00:15:40
some time and00:15:43
well, only a few are able to do it with bows00:15:47
yes yes the majority will be reached00:15:50
gradually when more and more00:15:53
people physically receive these00:15:55
summonses and leave when the00:15:58
coffins go in the opposite direction you understand the coffins00:16:01
were coming before but before this is how some people00:16:03
treated them, but these are contract soldiers, that00:16:05
is, professionals, people who00:16:07
consciously chose a contract mercenary,00:16:09
in other words, yes, they went to fight, well,00:16:12
because that’s what they wanted, a00:16:16
completely different story; a check for the00:16:18
profession; he was not going to be a military man;00:16:21
suddenly they threw him00:16:23
there and he died, and even then it00:16:25
will be perceived in a completely different way; it00:16:26
will be perceived much closer, and00:16:29
now I think these will be such spontaneous00:16:32
outbreaks of protests; their number will00:16:35
constantly grow and there, somewhere in the outback, a00:16:37
funeral will turn into some kind of00:16:39
rallies mean that now there will be a lot of00:16:42
criminal cases, everyone will be evading the00:16:46
draft, and the00:16:49
authorities will be forced to initiate00:16:51
criminal cases, or the draft00:16:52
will simply fail, no one will simply00:16:54
go, or they will have to initiate00:16:58
criminal cases and arrest people, and00:17:00
these arrests will dramatically00:17:04
increase the likelihood of spontaneous outbreaks of00:17:09
protests there in the outback, that is, it’s00:17:12
not immediately like you know about those blowing away00:17:15
centralized when Navalny threw out00:17:16
a cry, relatively speaking, and that’s00:17:19
all that00:17:20
means throughout the country, it’s there to00:17:22
organize people coming out on the street;00:17:27
it breaks out like a forest fire,00:17:29
it’s not clear where it’s not clear why it suddenly00:17:31
broke out like it happened here, let’s say00:17:34
in Khabarovsk after the arrest of Fargal, but no one is00:17:38
organizing a protest, it just00:17:40
happened, the townspeople were just outraged and00:17:42
took to the streets or there are lice there, it was00:17:44
on 3 and in the Arkhangelsk region,00:17:46
here this is what will happen, but00:17:51
these things will flare up most often, they00:17:54
will grow like a forest fire00:17:56
because the fuel, that is, this dry00:17:59
firewood, etc.00:18:01
this dissatisfaction, this feeling00:18:03
that the authorities cheated, you understand, and00:18:07
put Christie on the document of the authorities, but there are no00:18:09
normal arguments why we should00:18:10
go and die there,00:18:12
it means that all these situations of00:18:15
demilitarization were suitable to00:18:18
convince people to00:18:20
watch the war on TV and00:18:24
take part in the blitzkrieg yourself and just as00:18:26
easily as in the00:18:28
case with the Crimea, we are here in three days, which means with00:18:30
one left, well, okay, let’s00:18:34
show the situation in detail, but in a00:18:36
situation where you need to get off the couch and00:18:38
go yourself to the risk of turning into a00:18:40
title, but these are completely different arguments00:18:44
needed and here some kind of 11 5 militarization will00:18:47
no longer work, that is, I’ll immediately00:18:49
turn on my brain and start thinking00:18:52
in general, but there are these Nazis and why,00:18:55
on principle, the Nazis00:18:57
want to speak in their own language,00:18:59
even what kind of scoundrels some kind of criminals I’ll00:19:02
start, a person will brush off what It’s a big00:19:05
sin, strictly speaking, there is no desire00:19:07
to talk about our language or,00:19:09
therefore, about the militarization of NATO00:19:14
approaching our borders, well, here00:19:15
people turn on their brains, I didn’t remember that00:19:17
NATO has existed for seven years, it’s already been there for00:19:20
more than that, even that in general00:19:22
we’ve been living side by side with them for decades side and00:19:24
somehow nothing got by without a war00:19:25
about you, what happened, why is it necessary00:19:27
to fight, yes, that is, this00:19:30
argumentation, which so far was more or less00:19:33
enough, now I00:19:35
will be sorely missed, and in today’s00:19:37
speech, Putin didn’t say woman from the00:19:39
point of view of the argument, I00:19:41
listened carefully precisely on this score, will there be00:19:43
new arguments in favor of the need to00:19:45
wage war, no, everything is the same00:19:49
many times, it’s already boring,00:19:54
and in general, you00:19:57
know, in the revolution of 17,00:20:02
it happened00:20:04
at what point it began, there are00:20:07
historians who read the starting point of the00:20:09
starting point as the mass protests that00:20:12
began in Kazakhstan and Central Asia in the00:20:14
sixteenth year, when00:20:16
the authorities suddenly00:20:18
decided to conscript these so-called foreigners, that is, they were00:20:20
not subject to conscription, and then they announced00:20:21
mass mobilization and even against the background to00:20:23
the front, well, that is, to the front, but not to fight00:20:26
purchases about it, they were called up, that is, to non-00:20:29
combat units, yes, but they all rebelled, there00:20:33
was a massacre, there will be something there, part of the00:20:36
military units that were supposed to be at00:20:38
the front, at least they sent a bus station there to00:20:40
cut out these rebels the auls there the00:20:43
answers cut Russian settlements there was a00:20:46
lot of blood, then they00:20:49
forgot about this story,00:20:50
but there are historians who believe that00:20:53
the revolution of 17 just began and00:20:56
then in the sixteenth, that is, it00:20:57
was the forerunner, that is, that moment and00:21:00
Russian society was shocked00:21:02
by what she saw, that is, it seemed after the00:21:04
suppression of the revolution of 1905, it seemed00:21:06
that but the topic of revolution in Russia was closed00:21:08
until and in 16 it suddenly became clear that00:21:11
they would not show up there, the people were rebelling,00:21:14
protesting, that is, they were dissatisfied with the people, that00:21:17
is, this idea that society was not happy with00:21:19
the war00:21:20
materialized and was00:21:22
visualized by the whole country and saw00:21:24
and and these protests continued and were00:21:26
suppressed there with blood drowned but they, in00:21:28
principle, somewhere outside the cry in places lasted00:21:29
until the seventeenth year and, in fact,00:21:31
grew into a00:21:32
big revolution, so the mobilization00:21:35
began and00:21:37
therefore, in principle, it cannot be included what00:21:40
will happen now is exactly this when you find00:21:43
earlier, why didn’t people protest00:21:46
en masse, yes, because they had a choice,00:21:51
here I am sitting on the sofa,00:21:54
if I stay on the sofa, I’ll go out into the street, then00:21:57
I’ll get the atamans’ stick, let’s talk about what00:21:59
I’ll do in prison, but it’s clear that most00:22:03
people are peaceful ordinary people they said00:22:04
no, I’m not going anywhere here, but now00:22:08
the authorities themselves have taken away this option of sitting at home on the00:22:09
sofa, now I have the option00:22:11
between a stick from the riot police and the00:22:14
trenches where I’ll be high seas, it’ll just00:22:17
turn me into a high seasman, and even here I can already00:22:20
say and yes, it’s better if I’m there I gave in on the00:22:23
head, I’ll get it, but it’s better I’ll even go to00:22:24
prison for several years before, but00:22:27
I’ll be more alive, that is, the choice is completely00:22:30
different now, and that’s why now00:22:33
many may well want to go and00:22:35
fight with the riot police there, and it’s00:22:39
not a fact that these bonuses will be very strong It’s really00:22:42
worth the rap, because they, too, in00:22:44
general, have experienced high Mars on themselves;00:22:46
they’ve already been to Ukraine; they saw that in00:22:49
fact everything is not as good as they00:22:51
are told about this path; they00:22:53
have doubts; we need it; and00:22:56
therefore, the protesting people demanding00:22:59
peace, they may not be as blizzards00:23:02
as they are blizzards or supporters00:23:04
of Navalny, for example, yes, that means00:23:06
the year before last00:23:08
they divided the nerve matrix last fall,00:23:11
who opposed the falsification of00:23:13
elections to the State Duma, yes, therefore,00:23:20
thank you00:23:27
[music]Description:
Аббас Галлямов, политолог, в новом выпуске на #политека_онлайн. путин "давит на газ" войны - но Зеленский не отвернёт! это может быть блефом, но... Ведущая - Инга Мезеря Поделитесь этим видео - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nolZsunyBcg Вы можете поддержать канал ПОЛИТЕКА, сделав перевод на карту 5168745301518087 (Назначение платежа: пополнение карточки) Станьте спонсором канала Politeka Online, и вы получите доступ к эксклюзивным бонусам. Подробнее: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCHgiqmsIHN2PlQnBIRFRGGg/join Все актуальные новости Украины и мира в одном приложении MY.UA: Google Play - https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.myua.news App Stope - https://apps.apple.com/ua/app/my-ua-%D0%BF%D1%80%D0%BE-%D1%83%D0%BA%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%97%D0%BD%D1%83-%D1%82%D0%B0-%D1%81%D0%B2%D1%96%D1%82/id1437521768?l=uk Подписывайтесь также на каналы: People Life - https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCLlUjg4ipS_SgwhLgg0yQRA?sub_confirmation=1 PolitБюро –самые актуальные новости https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCas2_yXFXTsAiYxY4WfenqQ?sub_confirmation=1 Подписывайтесь на наш канал Политека Онлайн, жмите на 🔔 и выбирайте "все уведомления", чтобы не пропустить новые видео https://www.youtube.com/c/PolitekaOnline?sub_confirmation=1 Политека в твиттере https://twitter.com/PolitekaO В студии Politeka Online Аббас Галлямов — российский политтехнолог, кандидат политических наук, был «кремлевским спичрайтером» 21.9.2022 Таймкоды: 0:00 Мнение гостя не всегда совпадает с нашим, но мы считаем нужным предоставлять зрителям разные точки зрения.
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