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Russian
00:00:01
Polytek channel Thank you for being00:00:03
with us today for watching and00:00:05
supporting, do not forget to also00:00:07
like this video and subscribe00:00:09
to our channel if you have not already done so with00:00:12
us today in touch Ruslan Bortnik Rad00:00:14
welcome Ruslan to our studio00:00:16
Hello Edward, I’d like to immediately00:00:19
remind our viewers that Ruslan has his own00:00:21
Youtube channel, so don’t forget00:00:22
Subscribe and like And of00:00:25
course, comment and ask, I00:00:28
think that the author of this channel will be00:00:29
very pleased00:00:31
Ruslan, we’ll start with what kind of00:00:36
reaction we we see on the phones a dialogue00:00:40
between Si and Vladimir Zelensky as00:00:43
they began to comment on the fact that there is already00:00:45
panic in the Kremlin Well, indeed, among the00:00:48
Russian propagandists of the tsar there is such a00:00:49
panicky mood; radio host, if00:00:52
you can call it that, Sergei Mordan, in one00:00:55
of the broadcasts, literally attacked the00:00:57
Chinese leader and accused him of00:00:59
betraying Russia According to him, after a00:01:02
visit to Moscow, seven in the Russian00:01:05
Federation were sure that the head of China00:01:07
would not call the Ukrainian president00:01:09
and said that it was in general how should we00:01:13
react to this, is it zrada or not,00:01:17
how should we evaluate this call? Why did he00:01:19
call our enemy, comrades, why are you in00:01:22
He came to Moscow for 3 days and prevented Putin from00:01:24
working, uh, what should we think here?00:01:28
Friendship or where is00:01:31
Ruslan, how do you evaluate this00:01:34
reaction of mouthpieces to phone calls and00:01:38
I would like to just00:01:40
push off from the latter and understand whether it’s Friendship or not,00:01:44
look first what is said about the00:01:47
public sphere by some purple,00:01:50
let's say, journalists, it may have a00:01:53
polytechnological character, someone is00:01:55
trying to play the Chinese party00:01:57
inside Russia. If there are forces that are00:02:00
very negatively disposed towards00:02:02
cooperation with China and are criticizing,00:02:07
looking for the reasons for the problem in Russia,00:02:10
they are trying to cooperate with China00:02:12
there to strengthen or not a split, someone on00:02:15
the contrary is trying to put some00:02:17
pressure on the Chinese leadership That’s00:02:19
because China is closely monitoring00:02:22
such information signals And it’s likely00:02:25
that tomorrow there00:02:28
will be00:02:30
excerpts from Russian broadcasts and this00:02:34
transmission of a signal about about dissatisfaction on the00:02:37
part of Russia with Chinese behavior00:02:40
on the Ukrainian front, lack of coordination00:02:43
in this direction, but still I am inclined to00:02:45
analyze official signals more00:02:48
because they are richer than responsibility00:02:52
signals, if you look at the statement of the00:02:54
Russian Foreign Ministry, it was expressed there00:02:58
as if there was such dissatisfaction with this call,00:03:02
cold relations and immediately a00:03:04
whole lecture was quoted for China about how there is00:03:07
no point in talking with Ukraine at all00:03:10
because it is not00:03:12
negotiable; any agreements00:03:14
concluded with Ukraine will then be00:03:16
destroyed. It00:03:17
seems to me that Russia is generally00:03:20
dissatisfied and is very wary of00:03:22
this signal,00:03:24
these telephone negotiations between Ukraine00:03:27
and China because it understands that if the00:03:31
negotiating mission is fed a negotiating00:03:34
proposal from China, then this00:03:36
will ultimately00:03:39
mean that China will be forced to00:03:42
push Russia to accept00:03:45
compromises that are unpleasant for Russia; they00:03:47
may be unpleasant for Ukraine for all00:03:49
other players. But for Russia too, and00:03:52
moreover Russia does not want to become00:03:56
politically dependent on the negotiating00:03:59
initiatives of uh China uh at some point it00:04:04
happily used Chinese00:04:07
negotiating proposals at the initial00:04:09
stage when they were expressed00:04:11
because in this way Russia was trying00:04:13
to show that the whole world is not with the West00:04:15
not with Ukraine, the world does not support00:04:18
Zelensky’s Peace Plan, but when these00:04:21
Chinese proposals began to acquire specificity00:04:24
and the likelihood of their uh implementation began00:04:28
to increase, Russia began to00:04:30
demonstrate its disagreement with this00:04:32
approach and I warned your broadcast about00:04:35
this earlier that in fact Russia does not00:04:37
want any agreements We have a00:04:40
very widespread myth that00:04:42
Russia is ready for a truce, it only00:04:44
strives, that it only strives to achieve a truce in order to00:04:47
fix the00:04:49
occupied territories, and in fact everything is00:04:51
not so because even the fixation of the de00:04:55
facto occupied territories from Russia,00:04:56
but I don’t give even China will not00:04:59
agree, it will mean that Russia00:05:01
is driven into a corner, has isolated the territory of00:05:04
Ukraine, that Russian geopolitical00:05:07
ambitions and the goal was to compete with the United States,00:05:10
division of spheres of influence in Europe, are00:05:12
defeated in the Donbass Kherson00:05:15
steppes, therefore Russia and Siberia will be00:05:18
real and the world will be a compromise00:05:20
Russia will not accept such a Scenario yet00:05:23
I agree Ruslan And if we talk about this itself,00:05:27
it turns out that after such a high-profile00:05:31
visit to Moscow, he survived a month before00:05:34
contacting Vladimir Zelensky, and at the same time,00:05:36
although Kiev publicly called for a00:05:39
conversation, however, something forced the00:05:42
Chinese leader to call the head of00:05:44
Ukraine precisely on this moment this is very00:05:47
important Yes this is very important you are asking the right00:05:49
question firstly on the Day of the00:05:51
Chernobyl Disaster there was a call00:05:54
there was a gay nuclear disaster00:05:57
at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant00:05:59
and the final communiqué of00:06:02
Sizimpin on the results of this negotiation was discussed00:06:04
as well as how the00:06:08
point is also included it is impossible to allow a00:06:11
nuclear confrontation of a nuclear disaster00:06:14
in in the future, secondly, I do not exclude00:06:17
that00:06:19
the scandal with the Chinese ambassador to France played into Ukraine’s hands;00:06:23
it called into question not only the00:06:25
territorial integrity of Ukraine, it00:06:27
called into question the00:06:29
international legal legitimacy of all00:06:32
post-Soviet states,00:06:35
and China found itself in a situation where it00:06:37
made a mistake,00:06:42
disavowed But this, to some extent,00:06:45
was additionally, it seems to me, the motivation00:06:47
for this dialogue and we see that based on the00:06:50
results of an hour and a half dialogue between Xi00:06:52
Jinping and Zelensky, any arrows00:06:55
towards China are public from00:06:57
Ukraine in this part with a call to00:07:00
punish they sent something like that was not00:07:02
heard the situation00:07:04
has been resolved, Ukraine was not offended, it00:07:09
played a role. Well, the third factor is interesting to00:07:11
our public, absolutely unknown there. The00:07:13
fact is that most likely the Chinese-00:07:18
Brazilian negotiating mission will arrive00:07:20
in Ukraine, perhaps in the next00:07:23
two or three weeks. Brazil has appointed its00:07:25
representative, this is the former Minister of00:07:27
Foreign Affairs and a very authoritative00:07:29
politician of Brazil and China appointed00:07:31
most likely will not come together and the00:07:34
speed of this mission is given by the question of a00:07:36
possible Ukrainian counter-offensive.00:07:38
This is the mission I am doing to come before the counter00:07:41
-offensive. Moreover, the call itself from00:07:44
Xi Jinping is aimed at00:07:47
putting a dilemma before our leadership.00:07:51
You can then counter the Chinese00:07:54
proposals for peace and the mediation role00:07:57
will not be needed in the coming months until00:08:00
the counter-offensive is completed and the00:08:02
positions of the parties become clear with what the other00:08:05
side of00:08:06
the negotiations or you can accept the00:08:09
Chinese negotiating mission, but00:08:11
then you should not carry out large-scale00:08:12
counter-offensive now, such a dilemma00:08:15
arises after the fact of this negotiation00:08:17
process, and with the fact that Ukraine00:08:19
understands perfectly well that the risk of, uh,00:08:22
wider involvement of China in a direct00:08:25
or hybrid war against Ukraine00:08:28
remains very high for China, this00:08:31
conversation was also important from the other00:08:33
side from the point of view of confrontation with the00:08:35
United States00:08:36
because for China it was very important to00:08:38
hear from Ukraine publicly that the00:08:42
Chinese Peace Plan can be a00:08:43
subject for dialogue for negotiations.00:08:46
That is, China is creating a globally different00:08:49
situation. We discussed this very well00:08:52
today with one of my international00:08:53
colleagues if China says that they are ready for peace to00:08:57
discuss Chinese proposals00:08:58
in Russia in France in the breeze Brazil in00:09:02
Turkey and even in Ukraine, why then00:09:06
does the war continue and it continues because00:09:08
of whom and for the USA00:09:11
the main geopolitical00:09:12
geo-economic competitor of China is an00:09:15
attempt to push the pin in the00:09:16
USA and this position looks like00:09:18
for Ukraine China is also important from this00:09:22
point of view because China and I will erase and00:09:25
communication cooperation with China is not00:09:27
only economically beneficial. China00:09:29
can not only exert very serious00:09:30
pressure on Russia; it is probably the most00:09:33
key instrument of influence on00:09:35
Russia today. China in the world and Ukraine00:09:37
understand this very well. But the maneuver between00:09:40
China and the West creates a field for00:09:43
additional economic -e of foreign policy00:09:45
sovereignty for Ukraine, the00:09:47
total dependence of our country00:09:49
only on Western allies and partners00:09:51
sometimes also goes to the detriment of Zelensky,00:09:53
some questions Where our views00:09:55
differ and it is important for Ukraine00:09:58
to demonstrate that it is not only that it is00:10:00
not only not only dependent on00:10:02
Western partners, but that it still communicates00:10:04
with the third world, the global south in the person of00:10:07
China, many other countries are also very00:10:10
important, the most important Expert,00:10:12
so all these stars came together at one00:10:14
moment and we saw this call and we00:10:17
saw a very fruitful dialogue;00:10:19
moreover, we will see Ukraine reboot00:10:21
Chinese relations into a single meaning of00:10:23
ambassador and special representative00:10:25
appointment orthodox the final phrase is00:10:27
very Generally symbolically important look00:10:30
Ambassador of Ukraine to China Sergei00:10:33
Kamyshin seems to have died in 2021 Well,00:10:37
the man was sick, it just happened We are all00:10:39
mortals, but after that China no longer00:10:42
agreed on the ambassador of Ukraine to China, there was a00:10:45
feeling that China00:10:47
was expecting the occupation of Ukraine by Russia that00:10:50
China no longer believed in the future and the00:10:53
future subjectivity of Ukraine as an00:10:56
independent state, you understand. And00:10:59
now the reassignment of this ambassador00:11:01
since the headset stroked the campaign has00:11:02
been fully agreed upon00:11:04
means that China again views00:11:07
Ukraine as an international political00:11:10
subject or object. Well, it doesn’t matter, but as an00:11:12
international political unit00:11:16
and a reboot is taking place Ukraine's00:11:18
Chinese relations, which is extremely00:11:20
symbolic and politically important. It00:11:23
seems to me that for Ukraine today Ruslan is00:11:25
precisely in the context of such a military-political00:11:28
decision, many are now00:11:30
wondering, or maybe he realized that Russia00:11:33
was on the verge of military defeat and is00:11:35
now establishing a dialogue with the likely00:11:38
winner of this war, that is with Kiev,00:11:41
uh, this is only while the war is going on00:11:44
in our territory. It seems to me that it is very00:11:46
early to talk about victories, but00:11:48
when all00:11:51
the territories are liberated and threats arise for the00:11:54
Russian state, then this00:11:56
question can be posed by itself,00:11:59
now it seems to me that Beijing has realized that00:12:02
everything is in this war was tied up to the neck00:12:05
at the same time and a situation arose in00:12:08
which only China is independent00:12:10
of the outcome of this war; Ukraine is dependent;00:12:13
Europe is dependent; the USA is dependent on the outcome of00:12:16
this war; because if Ukraine00:12:17
loses, then Biden will lose00:12:20
his elections with it and the Democrats will lose with it00:12:22
Russia certainly depends on its elections,00:12:24
only China today does not depend on it, it00:12:27
retains the field of political maneuver,00:12:30
the ability to implement a mediation00:12:33
function, the opportunity to earn00:12:35
political and economic points from this,00:12:38
beat the United States,00:12:41
let’s simplify it all, then the00:12:45
Chinese are the next signal, or do you, the United States,00:12:49
first of all accept our new role00:12:52
or are we helping Ukraine to lose,00:12:56
namely, discrete our international00:12:58
position and helping Ukraine to lose,00:13:00
along with which you will lose00:13:03
because you are part of this war, you are an ally of00:13:05
Ukraine Russia will lose Europe00:13:08
will lose Ukraine USA you will all lose00:13:12
here is a very interesting00:13:15
positioning but Perry recognition of00:13:18
our subjectivity in the international00:13:20
arena in the form of receiving our ambassador, well,00:13:23
this is a very serious step, a serious success for00:13:26
President Zelensky and his team,00:13:29
Ruslan, an article appeared from a00:13:32
politician that Zelensky’s conversation00:13:34
will reduce tensions between China and00:13:38
the West, while a message appears00:13:40
that the White House expects a telephone00:13:42
conversation between President of the United States and Joe00:13:44
Biden and President of China Xi will00:13:46
take place in the near future00:13:48
nbc reports this with reference to a00:13:50
high-ranking representative of00:13:51
the administration of the American leader. But00:13:53
then what kind of layout would we see if00:13:56
this telephone uh dialogue took place00:13:59
between Biden and C and what would that mean00:14:01
for Ukraine’s00:14:04
approach may also take place.00:14:07
Because if Ukraine accepts part of the00:14:10
peacekeeping proposals from00:14:11
China and then the proposals are not00:14:14
just ideas as in the case of Turkey there Or00:14:17
other countries and then the proposal00:14:19
is worth huge economic and00:14:22
political opportunities, each of its00:14:24
proposals China can support with00:14:27
dozens billions of dollars, you00:14:29
understand00:14:30
this situation perfectly well, and if Ukraine00:14:33
accepts, uh, a peacekeeping00:14:36
position, China makes some proposals, then00:14:38
this could be part of a compromise between00:14:40
China and the United States on Ukraine, and Russia00:14:45
will play the role of a00:14:47
minor player here; a00:14:49
model can be formed in00:14:53
which00:14:54
Russia may or may not agree to it,00:14:57
but it also cannot disagree for long00:15:00
because00:15:05
Russia also does not have the resources for a long war of complete isolation without the support of China. As00:15:10
expected, the United States, by the way, officially00:15:14
supported and, unlike Russia, positively assessed00:15:17
this conversation between China and00:15:19
Ukraine because that the United States said that they00:15:21
believe that in this way China will00:15:23
also hear the position of Ukraine and not only00:15:27
constantly heard the position of Russia and perhaps00:15:29
Zelensky will be able to convince the00:15:31
Chinese leader to change his attitude00:15:33
towards Russia, to alienate00:15:35
Russia and China a little in this part, the call between00:15:39
Biden and Xi Jinping may consolidate00:15:41
some principles or some00:15:45
agreements, including in relation to00:15:47
Ukraine, or launch some kind of00:15:49
negotiation process Most likely in00:15:52
relation to Ukraine I think that this00:15:54
call will really happen in the00:15:55
near future, in the coming weeks you see00:15:58
how on the one hand we see things seem to be00:16:00
getting better there are already00:16:03
some common ground and on the other hand00:16:05
we see how the stakes are increasing because the00:16:07
reuter reports that China launched a00:16:10
combat drone around Taiwan00:16:12
demonstrating its ability to attack the00:16:14
island's reserve bases on the east00:16:17
coast while a00:16:19
US Navy maritime patrol aircraft passed through the Taiwan00:16:22
Strait, that is, they anyway, this is00:16:26
heating up,00:16:28
traditionally Chinese tactics of00:16:32
flexing muscles and this is an attempt to play on the00:16:36
nerves of the enemy, reaching his00:16:38
exhaustion in this way China almost at one00:16:42
time annexed Macau. To a lesser extent,00:16:45
but Hong Kong no longer exists; this is a00:16:47
pressure tactic of constant exhaustion; the threat00:16:52
will continue; this tactic is already00:16:54
leading to the fact that today part of00:16:56
the production is being withdrawn from Taiwan and00:17:00
new investments are not coming you are not a00:17:03
military operation of China leading to the00:17:06
destabilization of00:17:07
Taiwanese politics and the possibility of,00:17:09
by the way, victories there about the Chinese parties of the00:17:11
same commandant until the next elections00:17:14
next year, it seems they are having elections00:17:16
and China before all he hopes is00:17:18
to strangle Taiwan in his arms00:17:21
to create a situation in which there will be00:17:24
no other decision left than to00:17:27
accept you know this concept of the00:17:29
Chinese one state doors there00:17:32
will be three systems already uh maintaining00:17:34
internal autonomy to join00:17:36
Return back to China00:17:37
military first operation uh remains an00:17:41
unlikely uh00:17:43
development scenario events, a military00:17:46
operation is only possible00:17:47
if the United States does something absolutely00:17:50
extravagant or the internal situation00:17:53
in China reaches the point of crisis over the00:17:56
economic situation in the00:17:57
real estate sector there, all refinance if00:18:00
some kind of internal crisis has arisen00:18:02
that will need to be extinguished only00:18:03
then military operations will be able to become00:18:05
real for now is an unlikely00:18:08
scenario and a game of nerves is a game of muscle.00:18:10
Mutual threats will be constantly00:18:12
taking place between muscles,00:18:15
you know Ruslan, what else is playing on the00:18:18
nerves is also this kind of zrada, let’s say in the00:18:21
Ukrainian language, which sounds in the00:18:24
Western press because again the00:18:26
policy that I already quoted today00:18:28
says that the White House is worried00:18:31
that the Ukrainian counteroffensive will00:18:32
not live up to expectations and is discussing the00:18:36
option of a ceasefire Without peace00:18:38
negotiations, the politician writes about this,00:18:40
citing sources in the US administration,00:18:42
the latest American estimates00:18:44
are that Ukraine can00:18:46
make some progress in the south and00:18:48
east but will not be able to repeat00:18:50
last year’s success talk about the article00:18:52
US officials are skeptical00:18:54
that Ukraine will00:18:57
cut the land corridor to Crimea and00:18:59
at the same time in the Pentagon there is still00:19:01
hope that Ukraine will be able to get closer to00:19:03
Russian supply routes in the south even00:19:05
if there is a complete victory over newly00:19:07
strengthened Russian troops00:19:09
will turn out to be too difficult, but in general,00:19:11
US intelligence indicates that Ukraine00:19:12
simply does not have the ability to push00:19:15
Russian troops out from where they are deeply00:19:17
entrenched. I would like to understand00:19:19
why we are constantly on the other side with the00:19:22
American and hear such different00:19:24
statements how many times have we during the00:19:26
war years, politicians have already quoted this particular00:19:29
publication with critical arrows from00:19:31
publications such in relation to Ukraine, you00:19:34
also need to understand that this is part of the game and00:19:36
information00:19:38
behind which may be, for example,00:19:41
Biden’s opponents and thus speaking about the00:19:44
weaknesses of Ukraine and saying perhaps00:19:46
the Maidan in Ukraine remember the politics of00:19:48
the last Yes they They say that look,00:19:51
Balin’s policy in Ukraine is successful,00:19:54
moreover, it could end in a nuclear00:19:56
disaster or tragedy,00:19:59
these publications must be taken calmly, but00:20:01
in general, in the American there is another00:20:05
fear, even two fears of which we have00:20:07
little say, the00:20:09
first fears are that the00:20:11
expectations within Ukrainian society are overheated00:20:13
in case of failure to achieve results, this was00:20:15
recently said by Reznikov by the way00:20:19
Yes, theprinciple of00:20:25
Zelensky’s fight will lead to some kind of00:20:28
political crisis in the future, especially in the00:20:30
fall When will the Rubicon of00:20:32
the elections stand at which the opposition to00:20:35
Zelensky, the consolidated position to00:20:37
Zelensky is going to bring up the issue00:20:39
or elections Or let’s divide power and00:20:44
create otherwise you are already a usurper a not00:20:48
entirely legitimate complex political00:20:50
process may happen in the fall, and the second00:20:52
main problem is that if the00:20:55
Ukrainian offensive is not00:20:56
successful enough, it will revive00:21:00
Russian ambitions, revive Russian00:21:03
illusions that Russia00:21:04
can capture all of Ukraine, this will00:21:08
mean that Russia will become absolutely00:21:09
incomprehensible negotiation room that she is00:21:12
about her attempt at her offensive,00:21:14
you know this is what they fear today00:21:19
in the West, as it were, but it’s like the00:21:29
inertia of this train of public00:21:32
expectations both within our society and00:21:34
inside part of Western societies and the00:21:37
budgets allocated for the military to the00:21:39
military-industrial complex continue to00:21:41
push this whole situation forward despite00:21:44
significant risks,00:21:46
but in the Russian Federation it is clear that00:21:49
these fears also exist, but only in a slightly00:21:52
different context, since recently there was00:21:54
information that in Moscow state employees were00:21:56
obliged to look out for Ukrainian UAVs in the sky00:21:58
and those who refused would be fired,00:22:02
this is reported by the telegram channel Caution00:22:03
news That is, I I understand that the00:22:05
air defense system of the00:22:07
Russian Federation is already so unable to00:22:09
cope with regular raids by00:22:10
Ukrainian drones that the00:22:13
country’s authorities have nothing left, as it were. In addition00:22:16
to involving public sector workers in monitoring the sky,00:22:18
or I rule out00:22:21
that in the future there will be people on duty there with00:22:23
buckets and rags, remember how you During the Second00:22:25
World War, there were guards posted in all the attics of the cities,00:22:29
and always00:22:31
those on duty at the entrance came out with00:22:33
buckets of water and rags in order00:22:36
to extinguish the incendiary shells00:22:38
that were dropped by the German troops, but as I00:22:41
understand it, to some extent They are waiting for00:22:43
a surprise on May 9.00:22:45
Yes, to some extent In addition, this is00:22:47
an attempt to mobilize public opinion00:22:49
to take00:22:51
one step, scary to the point of aggression,00:22:56
to warm up Russian society, most00:23:00
of which still do not want to00:23:01
fight00:23:03
Rusanova By the way, regarding the fight, there was00:23:06
also information that at the front of the00:23:08
Wagner dude they are fighting the flow with a00:23:10
volunteer battalion of PMCs Gazprom00:23:12
soldiers from the stream are complaining that00:23:14
the Wagnerites are simply shooting them, we00:23:16
can already say from such symptoms00:23:18
that what is happening is not exactly a civil00:23:20
war, but something like this. Although what about a cold00:23:24
civil war? Well, look, this is a war00:23:27
not with the stream, but a war with the smell00:23:30
for financial flows. The fact is that00:23:33
Gazprom utilizes a huge amount of00:23:35
money for such new three private00:23:37
companies three are not flowing there are two more00:23:40
companies that have been created and she is00:23:43
sending huge amounts of money there to these00:23:45
Kamchatka companies trying to create an00:23:47
alternative to PMCs or alternatives to PMCs of00:23:51
course they do00:23:54
n’t want to reduce their influence of the00:23:57
public political military and of00:24:00
course the relationship to these new private00:24:02
military companies, which especially00:24:05
have unlimited funding, better00:24:08
weapons, better support from the00:24:10
Ministry of Defense of the Russian00:24:11
Federation,00:24:12
negative In addition, they are all together00:24:20
trying to snatch pieces from the 80 billion budget of the00:24:23
Ministry of Defense of the Russian00:24:25
Federation,00:24:28
and therefore they are all still constantly putting pressure on the00:24:31
Ministry of Defense So far, we can say00:24:34
that it is going It’s00:24:35
not entirely cold, but there is a very difficult00:24:39
struggle between the security forces behind the scenes of Russian00:24:43
politics, sometimes three corpses roll out of there,00:24:46
time scandals roll out of there,00:24:49
and this fight is of course a00:24:52
key element or one of the key00:24:55
elements of the weakness of the military Russian00:24:57
Federation, it certainly plays into our hands.00:25:01
Yes, by the way, you are very clear, such a beautiful00:25:03
phrase They said that corpses00:25:05
roll out from time to time and00:25:07
indeed, at least based on these situations,00:25:08
we can analyze what is happening and it is00:25:10
also very important to note that these00:25:12
alternative PMCs are00:25:15
subordinate to the Ministry of Defense and we00:25:17
understand what kind of confrontation with the00:25:19
Wagners and Wagner is involved with them. Well,00:25:23
Of course, it’s interesting what this will lead to.00:25:24
At the same time, we see different decisions from00:25:27
Putin. I’ll quote you two and you00:25:30
can tell your opinion what this will00:25:31
lead to. The President of the Russian Federation,00:25:33
Vladimir Putin, signed a law on00:25:36
amendments to the Criminal Code, in particular00:25:38
on life sentences. for00:25:40
high treason So Putin00:25:43
signed a Law on deprivation of acquired00:25:45
Russian citizenship for discrediting the00:25:47
Russian army and for actions that create a00:25:50
threat to our security Well, or in00:25:53
other words, I understand that00:25:55
Shoigu or Prigozhin insulted the special operation there and00:25:58
ceased to be a Russian00:26:00
Well, in this way any00:26:02
discussion regarding there, the future00:26:05
Russian state of its political00:26:07
system suppresses any public00:26:10
activity by the opponent in this part, but00:26:12
the role of the authority of the security forces is also strengthened.00:26:15
Which are now becoming00:26:17
untouchable from the point of view of some00:26:19
political discourse. You see, this is00:26:22
what is happening. All this is happening within the00:26:24
framework of the gradual mobilization of00:26:25
Russian society and the creation more Well,00:26:29
such an authoritarian monarchical00:26:33
system of the imperial system of governance00:26:36
Rustam And if we talk about00:26:39
different00:26:42
manifestations Well, for example, recently the00:26:46
famous propagandist Anatoly Shariy00:26:49
said that the Russians themselves are to blame for the00:26:51
fact that everyone hates them, as an00:26:54
example he cited the situation with internally00:26:56
displaced persons from Ukraine, he published a00:26:59
video where he spoke about the Russian00:27:01
Federation’s hatred of the inhabitants and the00:27:03
hatred of the inhabitants of Eastern00:27:06
Ukraine towards the Russian Federation00:27:09
regarding the liberators. He said that00:27:11
many treated the Russian Federation with some00:27:14
love. However, after February 24, 22, the00:27:17
picture changed radically. Shari00:27:19
admitted that in Peacetime, not a single00:27:21
political movement in Ukraine it did00:27:24
not force him to speak the Ukrainian00:27:26
language. But the Russian Federation was able to00:27:28
do this through its actions. The Kremlin did00:27:30
so that even Shri is proud of the fact that he00:27:32
belongs to Ukraine. Let’s talk about00:27:36
these metamorphoses, let’s say this about00:27:38
propaganda about those, remember and the recent leak of00:27:41
Akhmedov with uh Hmm00:27:45
Joseph Prigogine Here recently another one00:27:48
with Trotsenko and00:27:50
Matushevsky If I’m not mistaken, these are all these00:27:53
moods. They are manifesting themselves more and more00:27:56
and I would like to understand what00:27:57
this will lead to in the end,00:28:00
I won’t say that Russia or Russians when00:28:04
someone especially somewhere loved the world more, they were00:28:06
always afraid when this state00:28:08
was strong,00:28:10
and here it seems to me that00:28:12
little has changed over the centuries,00:28:15
or they simply didn’t like it when this00:28:18
state was weak and I don’t know, they00:28:20
mocked, they mocked their elbows,00:28:25
but of course, as for Ukraine, this is00:28:28
certainly true because the war00:28:30
associated with with this tragedy, the war00:28:33
crimes of the bombing, all this00:28:36
led to a radical reversal of00:28:37
Ukrainian public opinion, which was00:28:39
literally just recently there, relatively00:28:41
even the period after00:28:44
17-18, the majority of Ukrainians, in00:28:47
principle, considered the Russians to be a brotherly00:28:49
people, they had a positive attitude towards him,00:28:51
now all this has turned upside00:28:52
down, there are00:28:54
practically no old sentiments00:28:56
left, or they remain somewhere in the00:28:58
underground of the deep, absolutely pro-00:29:01
Russian, pro-Putin-minded00:29:03
part of the population,00:29:06
as for internal dialogues or00:29:09
Russian ones Yes, they certainly take place,00:29:11
but today they have little influence. What do the00:29:13
Russian elites influence? They are also intimidated by the00:29:15
Russian Russian authorities, they are00:29:18
isolated for having imposed sanctions against them,00:29:21
closed to make them on the territory of Russia00:29:23
more dependent on Putin,00:29:25
so all these things, including these00:29:28
leaks that are published, they of course00:29:29
increase the level of mistrust within00:29:32
Russian Liliths, especially between those00:29:34
who are in power and near00:29:36
power, but I, uh, do00:29:39
n’t think that there in the near future00:29:43
this is going to lead to something serious.00:29:45
Although if the war continues, then the00:29:47
risks of some acts of individual00:29:50
terror of palace00:29:52
coup attempts for Russia will grow00:29:54
along with the fall in the standard of living and00:29:58
along with the lack of clear military00:30:01
results,00:30:03
but by the way, Ruslan Very often we hear00:30:05
such opinions that a00:30:07
counter-offensive will take place after this, a00:30:09
change will begin in the system of the Russian Federation, there00:30:11
will be coups Uprisings against00:30:14
if the counter-offensive of Ukraine is00:30:17
successful, I can say what changes will00:30:18
begin in the Russian control system, a00:30:20
new war of mobilization will be declared,00:30:23
new laws will be adopted that will00:30:25
completely transfer00:30:27
Russia to a war footing if we will go out00:30:30
on the Russian border00:30:31
in this part of Russia will make an attempt00:30:36
to mobilize to the fullest,00:30:39
but I don’t think that a military defeat00:30:43
somewhere in the steppes of Kherson or00:30:45
Zaporozhye will lead to the fall of the Russian00:30:47
regime as a whole. Well, this will take00:30:51
years00:30:52
for this whole catastrophe to00:30:55
penetrate in the depths of the Russian consciousness, the00:30:57
Russian consciousness has found a way out of00:31:00
guilt first and then a way out and00:31:03
a catastrophe; this takes time. But00:31:06
why am I asking because, as you00:31:07
say, this is the cherry on the cake. Everyone is00:31:10
waiting for the fact that when the regime begins to00:31:13
collapse and then change, then Putin will00:31:17
not it will become his Then it will be easier and00:31:19
so on, but he has received Ukrainian00:31:22
citizenship and is a former deputy of the State Duma of the00:31:24
Russian Federation or I Ponomarev, he00:31:27
believes that in the near00:31:29
future there will be a division of power in Russia00:31:31
and00:31:34
there are two main candidates for the position of President of the country: Medvedev00:31:37
and Mishustin but Mishustin is more00:31:41
simple and modest like, well, I’m observing this,00:31:43
but Medvedev with his kind of00:31:46
alco-nuclear00:31:48
rhetoric But then it will be worse than00:31:51
Putin’s00:31:54
power will happen When as a result,00:31:56
so to speak, the defeat of Russia, then00:31:59
revanchist technocrats will come to power,00:32:02
this is like Mishustin if the00:32:06
liberal ones are also00:32:14
technocrats like Mishustin may come to00:32:17
power if some kind of00:32:18
global agreement is reached00:32:21
in China USA Russia on normalizing the situation,00:32:25
then to00:32:27
turn the page together with the00:32:31
former leaders with Biden and Putin,00:32:34
you understand, I will leave, I was in pain, white00:32:37
problems Then such a scenario00:32:39
is possible. Although for now it also looks00:32:42
unlikely in the event of some kind of00:32:45
replacement power in Mishustina, there is no chance00:32:47
that any of the security officials will support him.00:32:49
Most likely the Ministry of Defense and the FSB00:32:53
and the Ministry of Internal Affairs will compete by nominating their00:32:56
successors, but the names of most of00:33:00
them are still for now, they are not known to anyone,00:33:02
just as Putin was not00:33:04
publicly known to almost anyone a year before00:33:07
his premiership00:33:09
Ruslan, one last thing I want to ask you is00:33:11
one topic and your vision uh Well, you can00:33:15
say in 2 weeks there are already00:33:17
presidential elections in Turkey and we see what is00:33:20
happening and with rap and Erdogan Although00:33:23
many have now said that I00:33:25
may be such a political00:33:26
multi-move with his health, but00:33:28
still the opposition candidate promises to00:33:31
put an end to authoritarian rule and00:33:34
restore the country to a parliamentary00:33:36
Republic. As you see it, the situation there00:33:40
is difficult to say, it still looks like00:33:43
Erdogan has health problems,00:33:45
although I do not exclude the possibility of a game ranging from00:33:48
poisoning to an attempt to create an image of a00:33:51
person who has overcome the disease, as if00:33:54
such a winner who evokes00:33:56
sympathy, this cannot be ruled out, but the00:33:59
likelihood that Erdogan may00:34:01
lose the election increases, all00:34:04
this increases the risk. And since this is a00:34:06
Victory or Erdogan’s loss will00:34:09
mean a change in the political model and00:34:11
political class of Turkey, the00:34:12
risks are increasing, the risks of, well, cancellation of00:34:18
elections, attempts to imitate00:34:21
coups d’etat,00:34:23
something like that, some kind of ganger00:34:26
things, some things that will00:34:29
meanly change the balance will change This is the00:34:32
game Erdogan will also00:34:35
lose and leave his power and00:34:37
leave his post to our00:34:40
successor. This will mean another00:34:42
Turkey, which will actually00:34:44
give up part of its00:34:46
geopolitical influence and move into a00:34:49
phase of greater instability. This could00:34:52
lead to the unfreezing of conflicts,00:34:54
primarily in Syria and Libya, the00:34:56
unfreezing of the crisis in In the Middle00:34:58
East, this could lead to a00:35:01
worsening situation for Russia,00:35:03
the need for it to concentrate more00:35:05
efforts in this region, but at the same time00:35:09
it will mean a decrease in00:35:11
possible support for Ukraine from00:35:13
Turkey, which was also important; a00:35:19
new00:35:21
element of instability for all00:35:23
participants in the war and possible00:35:27
destabilization of the region, I think that00:35:30
Erdogan will not just give up power,00:35:33
especially since he took it by force, this power, and it doesn’t00:35:37
look like he’s just doing it,00:35:40
in any case, we’ll watch in a good00:35:43
way not so much time left, we will00:35:46
analyze with you Ruslan00:35:48
Thank you very much for participating in our00:35:51
communication Yes, and I want to once again Remind00:35:53
our viewers Ruslan Bortnik00:35:55
Be sure to search for YouTube in the search bar,00:35:56
subscribe, like your00:35:59
friends, also don’t forget about our00:36:01
Polytek channel Like this video Be00:36:03
sure to write a question or00:36:04
comments or also a compliment or00:36:06
good words and Ruslan I wish you a00:36:10
good day Take care of yourself until we meet again00:36:12
[music]Description:
Руслан Бортник, политолог, в новом выпуске на #политека_онлайн. @RUSLANBORTNIK Ведущий - Эдуард Глёза Поделитесь этим видео - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nWggJT72b1s Подписывайтесь на наш канал Политека Онлайн, жмите на 🔔 и выбирайте "все уведомления", чтобы не пропустить новые видео https://www.youtube.com/c/PolitekaOnline?sub_confirmation=1 В студии Politeka Online Бортник Руслан, политолог 29.4.2023 Таймкоды: 0:00 Кремль и Пекин: дружба или что? Истерика пропагандистов по поводу звонка Си Цзиньпина 5:25 Почему Си Цзиньпин позвонил Зеленскому именно сейчас? 11:25 Китай посылает сигнал США 13:55 Байден и Си могут договориться? 16:00 Китай "душит" Тайвань 18:30 Контрнаступление, выборы в Украине - чего опасаются на Западе 21:50 9 мая - чего боятся в России? 23:05 Альтернативные ЧВК в рф: борьба за потоки 25:05 Новый указ путина: пожизненное .. 26:40 Ш@рий заговорил по-украински. Почему российские элиты паникуют 30:10 Реакция России на контрнаступление Украины 31:20 Кто после путина? Почему у Мишустина нет шансов 33:25 Эрдоган и ситуация в Турции. Риски для Украины Вы можете поддержать канал ПОЛИТЕКА, сделав перевод на карту 5168745301518087 (Назначение платежа: пополнение карточки) Станьте спонсором канала Politeka Online, и вы получите доступ к эксклюзивным бонусам. Подробнее: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCHgiqmsIHN2PlQnBIRFRGGg/join Политека в твиттере https://twitter.com/PolitekaO Все актуальные новости Украины и мира в одном приложении MY.UA: Google Play - https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.myua.news App Stope - https://apps.apple.com/ua/app/my-ua-%D0%BF%D1%80%D0%BE-%D1%83%D0%BA%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%97%D0%BD%D1%83-%D1%82%D0%B0-%D1%81%D0%B2%D1%96%D1%82/id1437521768?l=uk Подписывайтесь также на каналы: People Life - https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCLlUjg4ipS_SgwhLgg0yQRA?sub_confirmation=1 PolitБюро –самые актуальные новости https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCas2_yXFXTsAiYxY4WfenqQ?sub_confirmation=1 Мнение гостя не всегда совпадает с нашим, но мы считаем нужным предоставлять зрителям разные точки зрения.
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