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Download "Курс Потапенко / @PotapenkoTV // 28.06.2022"

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00:00:08
that everyone’s relatives this is an uncle’s course on
00:00:12
traditional ones now on a live nail
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on my channel be sure to subscribe
00:00:16
like repost on
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social networks I don’t know what else to
00:00:21
do give a question in the end if
00:00:25
your question is liked today
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assistant money naturally they
00:00:31
were sent to me but also unconditional thanks
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traditional to
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my demiurge Alexey Stepanenko,
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who of course you know, I
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’ll just show him, he’s just getting off, he’s
00:00:43
going to send all the questions from the broadcasts,
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so we’re
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sending them now because those who are on paper,
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I, as they say, then a little bit later,
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so I’ll start right away and firt I slightly
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outlined, okay, the subject of that, in general, a
00:01:01
technical default probably makes sense to explain, it probably makes
00:01:04
sense many times, hearts
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have already noted that this is, in general, really a
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symbolic default, and
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there are some maliciously gloating and
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spiteful critics and maliciously saying, well,
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now they will begin to seize the
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property of the Russian Federation, I want to
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ask these malicious ones dear
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good ones, tell me there are 800 to 800
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planes that were pinned down by a
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strange coincidence, they
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are in Russian jurisdiction, they
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have specific owners here,
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leasing companies somewhere, this company is
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Boeing and airbus and everything else, you don’t
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know why these multi-billion-dollar KSKs are
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still not in the courts and still
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haven’t won, and do you have some kind of connection
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on some channel there, I read that
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now there will be a default, then there
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will be arrests and recovery, but of course
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it is written that this money will go wherever
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the victims are in Ukraine, we certainly
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empathize with this what is happening on the
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territory of Ukraine is
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unprecedented, let's be honest, but what
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happened in the chain mail is even worse, but
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let's stick to hard numbers, there is no need for
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any illusions about what kind of property was seized and
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any property, this money will go
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towards Ukraine if the lessor
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sent the plane here, he had this
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plane pinned down then he will seize
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the property of the Russian Federation
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exclusively for his own benefit and under
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no circumstances, just like
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bonds, the holders of bonds for which
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we have not paid the money will
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seize the property, this is this money,
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including from the seized
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property that the Russian
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Federation had xs those same 300 billions of
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dollars, it will go, sorry, to repay
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obligations to bondholders,
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these payments
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cannot be made under any
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circumstances, no matter how much anyone wants to
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emphasize the development of different legal
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processes, they say absolutely different things
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for everyone, with all the emotionality, after
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all, the legal part, but at least
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minimally you need to think through it,
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speak it out and not not deceive yourself
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because like unfulfilled hopes, in
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my opinion, it’s much worse than when you, like you, walk
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along the harsh truth of life,
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let’s move on about
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the questions now, as they say, walk through them,
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tell us the impact of the trade balance,
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strange economy I heard the opinion that
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the European Union will have problems due to the fact that
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their trade balance is negative
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in general, I remind everyone that what we
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mistakenly call states is what I
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wrote a book about which is called the body of the
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theory of economic shock, this
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was until last year and was published by
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publishing houses and calculations to the financial
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crisis to a very large
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transformation crisis, it was
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not even discussed and
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this is a crisis, the management system,
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state institutions, this applies
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not only to the Russian Federation, they cannot
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cope with the internal
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tension system, it’s like in metal in glass,
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when glass explodes, the same thing
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happens to institutions they have exhausted
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their own resources, this is not the exhaustion of the
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resources of conditional socialism, conditional
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capitalism, this is the exhaustion of the institutions of
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relations between civil society and
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this superstructure called an
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agreement which is called the state
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because by giving them the right with an
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official to manage the most everyday
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processes, we essentially flew into that
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same matrix which hangs behind me
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only if in the film the Wachowskis are
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either brothers or brother and sister, now
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this story is about the fact that a machine has taken over
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the world and so they somehow control
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people, then in this case the bureaucracy
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captured people and we ourselves were then
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they delegated this story there and
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officials in all countries of the world fed
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themselves to feed for a long time the very
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obscenity the more authoritarian
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the regime, the correspondingly, since the food
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is more coarse,
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the dictator changes themselves for their sons,
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set up an even bigger dictatorship, but in
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general the main problem is that a small
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stratum of society is has nothing
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to do with 5 capitalism and
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socialism because everyone is trying to measure by old
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standards and the standards should be new,
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forgive because it is new,
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including the digital world, this is
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the setting for which it cannot stand and
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solves its problems differently, just like and
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what kind of settings,
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the more authoritarian the regime they decide
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and the more powerful the regime decides with
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the help of wars, you don’t have to go far, right now
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it’s taking place, you can also call
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Turkey’s special military operations on the territory of
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Syria and this is a clear example of this, as you
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see, no one can say anything to Turkey
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if now, looking at the
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helplessness of NATO, China wants to do something,
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100 not including
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completely subjugate it, join with the
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help of the military, also special military
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operations, simply with the help of war,
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no one can show him anything in response,
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therefore, on the territory of our
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globe there are 10 a number of states that
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Having looked at the conflict between Russia and
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Ukraine, they
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realize in general that they can do
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whatever they consider necessary
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absolutely calmly with absolutely
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impunity, so if we are talking about,
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as they say, the problems of the European Union, it is not a
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problem of the trade balance, it is precisely
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the catalyst called the
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conflict between Russia and Ukraine that allows
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absolutely all statesmen
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maintain our positions in this election cycle
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because now we
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are commemorating we are entering the
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election cycle dishes are not about Russia and the
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world as a whole and
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now those politicians who are in power don’t need to strain themselves too much;
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their
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task is enough to at least formally
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join the poppy anti-war
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operational coalition and their re-election
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for the next cycle is practically guaranteed to him
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if they do not make any outright
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mistakes in
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their election and companies; this is if we are
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talking about the trade balance; the trade
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balance of the
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European Union as a whole is pointless to calculate
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because it is still necessary to consider each
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country individually with
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there are problems with the balance of trade in France and
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Spain, Italy, and I believed and still
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believe that if it had not been for the 24th in
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general and Russia, Russia would have been the
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beneficiary of the financial and,
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accordingly, structural crisis
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that occurred in the world and
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these countries would have served as the trigger, so I can
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say about the fact that if there is a problem in the European Union,
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but they will be
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buried under
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such a wonderful carpet
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called Russia and Ukraine, briefly then
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Yuli Ivanov, working in a communication
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campaign, I am engaged in connecting
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legal entities to the Internet,
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what do you think are the prospects for this area,
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look Yuri is key here the question is I’m not
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I’m planted I don’t know there’s a lot more than one
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input data but the
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key question is still to
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consume Patrick Till is he alive or is he
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rather the world as a whole I think that this is a business it’s
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normal it’s promising
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because especially in the regions we have a degree in
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including working through remote
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clouds with remote services such as
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remote accounting there is not so
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good at all, but for all this you need
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the Internet, the Internet is generally well, let’s say,
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since there used to be a phone book like
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it, so
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as an idea, this is a promising market; another
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thing is that there is a problem of a different nature
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as you know, I was at the St. Petersburg
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economic forum and
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there, almost everywhere you could
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hang
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such a handkerchief or such a huge
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glowing poster on any stand on which the
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words
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import substitution must be written and the second word is also
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stupid, absolutely no less stupid than
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import substitution, the so-called
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technological sovereignty
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no one knows what it means
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because technology is
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all-pervasive, this thing is technology, things are
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cosmopolitan, there are no technologies within the
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framework of any state, and
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going back to beer, absolutely one hundred
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percent of the conversations were about
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software, we can
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replace this, we can replace that, well,
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let’s be honest,
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the system sap and 1c corporation this
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you will feel, as they say, two big
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differences those who have used
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both tools understand perfectly well
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that in general the difference is
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fundamental in the depth of analysis in terms of
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convenience in implementing the system as such
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in support of
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1c I will remind you that these are wonderful guys I’m not
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afraid of not bad when persons served
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accounting programs, this generally
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grew out of accounting programs,
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but we should not forget
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these are the first years when there were other
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systems, by a strange
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coincidence,
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galaxy sail and everything else, which for some reason
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also dealt with accounting
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support and servicing legal
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entities, but somehow you know over time
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time, it
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suddenly turned out that one of us grew into a
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large corporation,
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there are no miracles, this is exactly the same as why
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yandex grew because you and I had me,
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we had rambler and a huge number of search engines, for some reason
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only one search engine became
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our predominant one in which the state
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holds a golden share, this is a problem in general in the
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Russian Federation and the post-Soviet
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space, unfortunately, everything that
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becomes large corporations is
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based only on
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administrative resources, this leads to the
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fact that the founders and
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managers and
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users understand perfectly well that the
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solution to absolutely all problems is not done
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within the framework of working with any then with technical
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support and a call to the top
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curator of this business, there is
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no such thing in any territory in the
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world,
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I doubt that behind Google there is
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some
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structure from the FBI that all the other
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companies were drowned and Google raised, yes,
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of course, the FBI and the CIA use
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Google search engines and are somehow asleep with
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data, but exactly how business has never
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raised it, it is said that one should not
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confuse warm with soft, therefore this is the
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problem of Russia,
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authoritarian Russia and it will
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continue, this is the lack of competition,
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or rather, to
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put it more correctly, we have competition, but this
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competition for
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entry through how many calls
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the first person will pick up the phone to the
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deceased there is Seryozha Dorenko we when with
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him when he headed
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says Moscow when we discussed with him
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in general the curtain is developing in
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Russia you just said one such
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phrase
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we differ so much unfortunately
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not even by our own talent but we
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differ he meant people through
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how many hands it will be possible to
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get through to the Kremlin, well, I
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exaggerated it for me then I didn’t agree with him,
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but he’ll come back and
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give him my version, which I
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just told you, after how many calls will the
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first person pick up the phone because it’s
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extremely important in an emergency situation for
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someone to pick up the phone
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Aleksashenko claims that oil from
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the Russian Federation easily bypasses them
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Barbie leaves Europe you say that
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any product is easily traced so
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can
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faire bypass the oil embargo by sea
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thank you means
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that I can say that any product can be
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traced and
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any goods can be bought and sold, and it is
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extremely important whether the
00:14:44
so-called Europe, including the so-called Europe, wants
00:14:48
to recognize the oil that came to them as
00:14:50
Russian. I told them in a number of Ukrainian channels that
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look how I am
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pumping oil into myself, namely
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oil is now being supplied to
00:15:04
refineries factories and there in
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storage in India in China, I don’t have the
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slightest doubt that either with a small
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weight or in the form of processed
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hydrocarbons in the winter, this product under the
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guise of Indian under the guise of Chinese
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will begin to arrive in Europe and Europe will
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consume it therefore
00:15:28
with Sergey Aleksashenko for I absolutely
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agree that she is looking in general, then she gets there in a
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completely roundabout way and
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this is my position for quite a long time that
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in general the very beginning has been since the beginning of the
00:15:48
24th, let’s say since the beginning of the
00:15:52
24th that luckily the
00:15:55
beneficiary of this conflict
00:15:57
will be China, Turkey, and so on. United
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States,
00:16:02
unfortunately, the Russian leadership does
00:16:05
not want to realize this simple truth,
00:16:09
it sincerely believes that
00:16:12
when it claims through its
00:16:15
propagandists that the
00:16:18
West has betrayed
00:16:20
Ukraine
00:16:22
slightly, the leadership must first
00:16:23
realize that the West is being heavily used by
00:16:26
Russia and
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work on its mistakes
00:16:30
and not
00:16:32
broadcast these mistakes to the
00:16:35
outside therefore,
00:16:37
as I already said Sergei Aleksashenko, I
00:16:40
absolutely agree and Europe will
00:16:42
buy Russian oil and especially
00:16:45
closer to winter, that is, November December on a
00:16:48
much larger scale, but only under the
00:16:51
guise of
00:16:52
oil from
00:16:55
China, oil from India,
00:17:01
Eugene, according to 83, authorized representatives have been appointed at the central bank
00:17:05
in
00:17:06
bank 105
00:17:09
representatives of the bank 105 banks
00:17:12
representatives of the Bank of the Russian Federation have been appointed and what is this
00:17:14
doing how will it affect bank
00:17:17
deposits on depositors it will not affect not
00:17:20
as today because the
00:17:24
whole so completely controls absolutely the
00:17:27
entire banking system and
00:17:29
but let’s be honest today the
00:17:33
existence of the number of banks
00:17:35
that exist on the territory of the Russian
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Federation
00:17:39
this is redundant because the number of
00:17:41
transactions is being reduced, people essentially
00:17:45
go to the same branches only with
00:17:47
different risks,
00:17:50
banks do not have any special opportunities
00:17:53
to make money on any
00:17:57
operations,
00:17:58
so now it
00:18:02
can be considered a completely normal situation for up to a
00:18:06
dozen
00:18:07
banks to remain there Well, the rest there could be
00:18:12
corporate banks, too. We also
00:18:14
have
00:18:16
about 100, 150
00:18:20
large financial-industrial groups there,
00:18:22
each of which may include 12 banks
00:18:24
exclusively for internal there are
00:18:26
some corporate settlements with
00:18:29
card systems, less with it and
00:18:32
therefore
00:18:33
keep the number of banks that
00:18:36
we have is already full, but they
00:18:38
were reduced to heroin of 500 pieces,
00:18:41
I don’t see any need to 100
00:18:45
150 banks, this is more than enough, well, I
00:18:49
emphasized the main system ones, there are 10
00:18:51
dashes, then a maximum of 15, although in fact
00:18:53
less is possible there up to 5 as it was under the
00:18:56
Soviet regime when there was a savings bank
00:18:58
there was a simple bow and there was Vnesheconombank,
00:19:01
so there are corporate banks that will
00:19:05
serve exclusively within the framework of
00:19:07
financial and industrial,
00:19:10
no one needs to prohibit anything, but the existence of some
00:19:12
other banks in my opinion is pointless, and
00:19:16
so with your permission I’ll move on to what
00:19:21
has accumulated during this time, and Dmitry, what
00:19:25
to expect from the meat market against the backdrop of the chaos
00:19:28
grain
00:19:29
means I don’t think that this year there
00:19:32
will be a problem of some kind of global beech grain,
00:19:35
she didn’t sit there, will it affect
00:19:38
Russia and Europe, I don’t have any idea about this There are some
00:19:41
special concerns, well, as
00:19:47
for the countries of Africa, yes there is such a
00:19:49
possibility there, but everything will become
00:19:52
clear by August, that is, how the armed conflict
00:19:55
itself will develop,
00:20:00
how the
00:20:02
corrective action on this
00:20:03
armed conflict will develop, how the
00:20:07
actions of the European Union will develop because for the most
00:20:10
part, unfortunately,
00:20:12
Africa is dependent, including on
00:20:16
social supplies from the European Union of grain
00:20:20
for materials technology, well, a lot of things,
00:20:24
so I think that this year the
00:20:26
meat market will be quite saturated, but with the
00:20:30
exception of course, there’s probably the
00:20:32
same lamb that you
00:20:34
know in general, the bank is quite unprofitable from the
00:20:37
point of view of its production,
00:20:38
because we will be honest, are the
00:20:41
government and the Central Bank
00:20:44
really trying to stabilize the exchange rate
00:20:46
or is Alex just stating this,
00:20:50
look here there is one big
00:20:52
problem,
00:20:53
in fact, cb and the
00:20:56
same Mr. Sollano now do not have
00:21:00
the tools that are possible
00:21:01
stabilize the dollar exchange rate ruble dash
00:21:05
foreign exchange earnings are coming in like crazy
00:21:08
until now cb has removed
00:21:12
the need for the return of foreign exchange
00:21:15
earnings by exporters but at the same time there is still
00:21:18
too much foreign exchange earnings
00:21:21
investment programs of most
00:21:23
enterprises, well, in general, are suffering a
00:21:26
significant reduction
00:21:28
today here is the news that I just
00:21:31
read that electricity consumption is falling
00:21:34
after an increase in the summer, this is
00:21:37
not typical, I can immediately say and I am
00:21:42
worried about these figures because there is a
00:21:45
reduction in a number of regions from 7 to
00:21:48
13 percent, why is this alarming because
00:21:51
we are just entering the stage
00:21:54
that I spoke about and my viewers know about this,
00:21:56
it’s July-August, I’ll honestly
00:21:58
tell you
00:22:00
for me, these alarm bells
00:22:02
should be ringing for the number 13, there’s 15, and
00:22:08
now it would be too early, let’s say two weeks
00:22:12
in the middle, you should be there for three weeks,
00:22:14
it should be like these calls must be
00:22:17
replaced because until July 10, I will remind you there is
00:22:21
still one such important date, until
00:22:25
July 10, the European Union allowed the execution of many
00:22:28
contracts that were previously concluded
00:22:30
for the supply of raw materials, why I
00:22:33
say there 13-15 because the last
00:22:36
date when cars cross this
00:22:39
conditional 10 then there is also a
00:22:42
certain time period of
00:22:44
five days and after that a
00:22:46
turnaround in
00:22:48
industry must begin, industry must
00:22:50
start ringing the bells for the elite,
00:22:52
they say that we are putting something on
00:22:55
downtime, they have already put everything they
00:22:57
can on downtime but there should have already been
00:23:00
some really serious
00:23:02
bells, so I’ll be honest, I’ll
00:23:05
be honest that
00:23:08
now you don’t have much chance of
00:23:12
losing the ruble in the normal direction,
00:23:16
that is, 70,174, which my
00:23:19
subscribers also know about, so
00:23:22
they have the opportunity to appear for due to the
00:23:26
fact that imports will become much larger
00:23:29
now, by the way, imports have stabilized
00:23:31
precisely in the second ten days of July,
00:23:37
then there may be some actions for now,
00:23:39
everything that is in the cb toolkit, but let’s be
00:23:43
honest, it’s not effective because if I were cb, I would
00:23:47
stabilize the water I would be the first to lower
00:23:49
the rate to two and a half to three and a
00:23:51
half and, as you know, I would make
00:23:55
targeted loans based on applications from industrial
00:23:59
enterprises because
00:24:00
today it’s just chump lending, well, I
00:24:04
think that this is not
00:24:06
suitable for the time of crisis in
00:24:09
which we find ourselves.
00:24:12
The Duma adopted yesterday about the inclusion of the
00:24:15
opening of VTB today,
00:24:17
your opinion on the merger will most likely be adopted at the third reading;
00:24:20
in fact, I can’t
00:24:22
say that I have an opinion, I just
00:24:25
talked about the need to generally reduce
00:24:28
the number of banks; in general, all this
00:24:31
should go in this direction because that I don’t
00:24:33
see how, but most of the
00:24:36
banks and also, in fact, the press, there
00:24:39
is a
00:24:40
certain amount of resources, a very
00:24:43
small loan portfolio,
00:24:45
everywhere, directly or indirectly, there is
00:24:47
state participation, yes it is clear that
00:24:50
this is state participation, somewhere
00:24:52
there the region where they participate then
00:24:55
he takes part there with the feds somewhere,
00:24:58
he just takes them through some
00:25:00
officials, all the families there, wives, children,
00:25:03
and so on, and there are close people, but by
00:25:06
and large this infrastructure is
00:25:07
not needed, that is, I say three banks are
00:25:10
higher than the roof everyone has a son, a
00:25:13
specific specialization, the savings bank
00:25:15
has always served physicists, the sample system has
00:25:18
always served the industry, foreign affairs,
00:25:21
but we are all in foreign exchange contracts
00:25:23
that were, that is, not a single enterprise
00:25:25
under the Soviet regime could directly
00:25:27
purchase something now, as
00:25:31
they say, such rigidity is not necessary, but
00:25:34
the logic is precisely of what relates to the so-
00:25:37
called statesmen, dump
00:25:39
for the most part all of this into three
00:25:43
groups, the main ones, I would
00:25:46
honestly say this is what I would do, is it worth
00:25:51
buying an apartment in Kaliningrad now with the
00:25:53
goal of moving soon to another jurisdiction
00:25:56
oh, and I’m very afraid you’re calculating
00:26:00
too quickly, you’re calculating climate
00:26:02
because Kaliningrad has a
00:26:05
very difficult fate, or rather Königsberg,
00:26:07
which I told you that when it
00:26:10
was occupied by ours, it even happened that the
00:26:13
kettles were warm, it seems to me that with
00:26:16
such a karmic problem you can be
00:26:18
left without
00:26:21
documents and without money, so I would
00:26:24
not say now do this, but
00:26:27
ads ads are up no matter what it is, even
00:26:29
with 300 times the moral justification
00:26:32
still remains a scratch, but in fact, somewhere
00:26:34
abroad, no matter how
00:26:37
someone would like it, is
00:26:40
it worth coming to work in
00:26:42
government agencies now? Now
00:26:44
I work in the trade of manufactured goods, Irina, and
00:26:47
if you feel that
00:26:49
there are problems with your clients, then
00:26:53
probably yes, where I can immediately say that
00:26:55
Irina, you will most likely have a problem
00:26:58
when moving to
00:27:00
the civil service, this will be a significant decrease in
00:27:04
status, a decrease in salary is possible, but
00:27:06
if you as they say, there is a
00:27:08
hairy paw there, then I think that this
00:27:11
makes sense practically because I, too,
00:27:15
cannot say with scant information
00:27:17
and I don’t know how
00:27:19
well your clients feel,
00:27:21
so proceed from the following that of
00:27:24
course government institutions will be much more
00:27:26
stable, but most likely
00:27:29
for that to be a private
00:27:31
entrepreneur from the point of view of
00:27:34
career advancement, but in general, how is it that
00:27:36
private entrepreneurs are not
00:27:37
welcome in government
00:27:39
agencies, and even in private ones, it’s not always
00:27:43
why, in order to stabilize the exchange rate, they
00:27:46
can’t buy yuan through the cross exchange
00:27:48
rate weaken the ruble yes in relation to
00:27:50
dollar,
00:27:51
look here the key question is
00:27:53
completely different, the yuan will
00:27:56
also be understood very much over not quite a
00:27:59
freely convertible currency, and at
00:28:02
any second
00:28:04
China will weaken I remind you of the picture
00:28:07
that is present, including the one I
00:28:11
published in public pages, that the yuan is
00:28:14
only in fifth place according to the list of
00:28:17
reserve currencies and therefore buy the yuan,
00:28:20
again for what money for a dollar
00:28:23
change the yuan for a dollar, you know with all
00:28:26
this, I would leave the dollar much
00:28:28
more gladly than much more
00:28:33
volatile or weakening force,
00:28:35
so
00:28:38
now there are two methods that are possible
00:28:41
to implement this installation, in fact,
00:28:44
there is such a beautiful word targeting,
00:28:46
but in fact it is called setting the
00:28:49
ruble exchange rate, well, at least there in the
00:28:52
region of 66 to begin with, and then, as
00:28:56
they say, look at it or of course
00:28:58
no one has canceled such a thing as a printing press
00:29:01
and it is possible to use it but
00:29:04
this is unwinding the already not the
00:29:07
best situation with inflation because
00:29:09
we still have inflation, let’s be honest, the goods will not
00:29:17
work if we sell resources in the same quantities as before, should we
00:29:19
expect an increase in prices within the country?
00:29:22
Karina means selling resources and
00:29:25
increasing prices within the country.
00:29:27
somewhat different,
00:29:29
let's say, the layers
00:29:33
we sell oil, but we do
00:29:35
n't eat oil ourselves, the increase in prices within the country
00:29:38
occurs according to the balance of supply and
00:29:40
demand, when the supply narrows,
00:29:44
the product still remains
00:29:46
in demand, its price rises, this
00:29:49
can already be seen even with the naked eye In
00:29:52
our grocery supermarkets, this is
00:29:55
visible in reliable,
00:29:57
as they say, collapses, and in reliable
00:30:00
markets, and in electronics, you can also see a
00:30:03
reduction in assortment, while
00:30:06
prices are rising, and resources are also observed.
00:30:08
Our main problem in the
00:30:12
Russian Federation is that
00:30:15
how we form the energy
00:30:17
paradigm does not fit into some
00:30:19
a future that goes beyond the horizon beyond the
00:30:23
horizon, it goes there, well, according to my
00:30:26
estimates, there are
00:30:27
7, that is, 2 to 27 thirty-fifth year and
00:30:31
we are somehow not particularly preparing for this, all
00:30:35
that we are now taking measures is we
00:30:37
are trying to make liquefied gas from gas,
00:30:41
but technology which now of this
00:30:45
third energy transition they, by
00:30:47
and large, are still tied to the
00:30:49
war and green technology, I have
00:30:52
little doubt that by
00:30:55
winter and spring of next year
00:31:00
the European Union will begin to actively revive, to actively
00:31:03
revive after the re-elections, to revive
00:31:06
nuclear energy, it is clear
00:31:08
now that no politician
00:31:12
can to say that we were
00:31:14
closing the nuclear station for a long time, the nuclear
00:31:17
station still caused and will continue to
00:31:21
cause
00:31:25
fear and some kind of internal
00:31:28
animal horror in the minds of any consumer, and therefore, of course, none of the
00:31:31
current politicians will
00:31:33
even open their mouth on this subject before their re-election,
00:31:36
but after re-election,
00:31:39
accordingly, waiting for some kind of pause
00:31:41
when it is clear that you have four
00:31:43
years ahead and you will not be removed,
00:31:45
understanding that there are no alternatives
00:31:49
today, in fact, hydrogen
00:31:52
nuclear energy they will
00:31:54
develop it, so
00:31:56
here the
00:31:59
development is only such, therefore regarding
00:32:02
our favorite resources, our the problem is
00:32:04
that
00:32:07
even the speeches you can find my
00:32:10
inclusions in the interview which Mariana
00:32:13
Minsk RBR alan r you and
00:32:16
there we are very moving with a
00:32:20
number of officials there are a number of officials giving way to Vyugin
00:32:25
and you will notice that
00:32:29
we have slightly different positions
00:32:32
absolutely all the
00:32:34
officials in this interview have all the numbers, as they
00:32:37
say, we will break through, we are doing well, we
00:32:40
need to give some kind of mythological
00:32:43
freedom, including freedom of business, would you like to
00:32:45
say, dear officials, freedom of
00:32:47
business should be given from you if you
00:32:51
said every time that we give free business
00:32:53
and reduce our ministry departments
00:32:56
or a commission then I would be glad, but
00:32:59
since you say within your
00:33:02
cohorts that freedom of business must be given,
00:33:05
but this must be given to some
00:33:07
other ministry not from you, I
00:33:09
understand that no freedom to business
00:33:11
has been given to the courts, but as soon as you start
00:33:14
talking, we give freedom to business, I’m writing a
00:33:17
letter of resignation to all departments,
00:33:19
as soon as there is such a
00:33:21
program, I’ll be upright but applauding
00:33:25
while standing, I’m
00:33:27
so
00:33:29
interested in the issue of mortgages, it’s urgent, is
00:33:31
it worth taking now if the payment is 20-30
00:33:34
percent payment from the family budget
00:33:37
Tatyana Tatyana 20 30 percent if
00:33:41
the question is urgent because
00:33:42
30 20-30 percent, even 30 percent is
00:33:46
not fatal, I’m still a burden on your
00:33:48
family budget, I only wish you
00:33:51
that your budget and your income
00:33:54
remain the same amount because
00:33:58
on the one hand you write that about you
00:34:00
also need to understand the country, no one guarantees you a
00:34:04
permanent income for the next three
00:34:07
years, this is extremely important because the
00:34:09
first three years are the years when,
00:34:12
in general, all the mortgage disasters happen,
00:34:16
so if you feel
00:34:19
that in general the situation is difficult, you need to
00:34:22
describe
00:34:26
what the probability is that in a few
00:34:29
years to be revived free issuance of garden
00:34:31
housing in Moscow 90 because
00:34:34
people also had no money and construction was going on I had
00:34:36
a queue for housing
00:34:38
Dmitry I think that I
00:34:40
will say all this honestly
00:34:42
unlikely the reason is very prosaic
00:34:45
free can only be
00:34:48
if you work in connection with your
00:34:51
enterprise
00:34:53
what happened under the Soviet regime,
00:34:56
in essence, if you take the work scheme in a simplified way, they did
00:34:58
n’t pay extra, but many benefits
00:35:02
were free, shareware,
00:35:05
because again, I repeat, with a
00:35:08
salary of 120 rubles for an engineer and
00:35:11
200 rubles there, the
00:35:13
total payment for RAM is 2,200 at
00:35:17
least I would like to remind you that
00:35:20
200 rubles were needed for the whole family to
00:35:23
live somehow, so I consider the chances of distribution to be such a
00:35:28
chance on behalf of me, I’m not talking about the fact
00:35:31
that I think that this is generally
00:35:32
wrong, but I think that it’s negative that I’ve been
00:35:35
waiting for an invitation for permanent residence in Canada for a long time
00:35:38
even before the special operation, do you
00:35:40
think there will be chaos in the Russian Federation not to
00:35:43
let out those leaving for permanent residence, what
00:35:45
prospects for the Iron Curtain
00:35:46
ask david david I don’t think that
00:35:50
there will be an Iron Curtain at all, the reason is the same,
00:35:53
it’s not only in words so that
00:35:56
we don’t fence ourselves off from the whole world, they
00:35:59
themselves need to somehow fly and where to use this,
00:36:02
of course, flight for permanent residence, but under the Soviet
00:36:06
regime you had to basically hand over all your
00:36:08
property,
00:36:09
in general, go with a naked torso,
00:36:12
now this is the situation, I think that it’s still
00:36:15
unlikely, you’ll just travel
00:36:18
there, of course, through third countries there
00:36:21
through right there Georgia, Armenia, Turkey for now,
00:36:24
and that is, perhaps Slovenia, and there, of
00:36:26
course, certainly further
00:36:29
care, for example, do you see crypt as a
00:36:34
full-scale payment system Sergey,
00:36:38
it depends on you, it depends on the
00:36:41
enthusiasts, when we write our podcast
00:36:44
with Zhenya
00:36:45
Romanenko, I often tell you that the
00:36:49
biggest gravedigger of the system Cryptocurrencies and,
00:36:52
in general, private money are
00:36:55
themselves strong enthusiasts. Unfortunately,
00:36:58
what I see for more than a
00:37:00
single year is that crypto enthusiasts are not
00:37:03
developing the payment
00:37:04
infrastructure because the task is not to
00:37:07
accumulate fiat in a
00:37:10
cue ball and wait for this cue ball to grow.
00:37:12
the task, after all, it seems to me, is to
00:37:16
develop precisely the fact that you can
00:37:18
pay for shawarma, that is, you have a
00:37:19
small business, make it possible to
00:37:22
accept you criticize you there, at least I
00:37:24
simply don’t know, they sew boots
00:37:27
only in this case, when you
00:37:29
develop this transactional
00:37:33
infrastructure then everything will be fine
00:37:35
in the script with private money as such,
00:37:38
because what was wrong is called
00:37:40
the state, of course, developing this
00:37:42
infrastructure will not be you know my
00:37:45
relationship in general, how about private money,
00:37:47
how do I think that this is an extremely important
00:37:49
element of
00:37:51
the existence of modern society,
00:37:53
returning to my very first message
00:37:56
that the
00:37:58
effectiveness of what was mistaken is called the
00:38:00
state, in my opinion, it has already
00:38:03
suffered a complete collapse
00:38:06
in all its aspects, but we will be
00:38:09
forced to use this archaism for at
00:38:11
least many decades,
00:38:13
but for the state, for example, to release
00:38:17
from its control the
00:38:19
financial and industrial groups that
00:38:21
even exist in Russia I’m not talking about the world,
00:38:23
but of course I’m not flattering myself and this is not why people
00:38:28
took over this world, as in the matrix, what
00:38:31
is called, to crush in the warrior
00:38:34
and how people often come to this
00:38:36
system to remove
00:38:40
beautiful and a very warm chair that
00:38:42
allows you to ensure
00:38:44
reign over the world, and in general,
00:38:47
we have a financial-industrial group,
00:38:50
my very
00:38:52
strong opinion is that they are obliged, I have
00:38:55
no other word, they are obliged to use in
00:38:58
settlements with their counterparties
00:39:01
more and more private money, precisely
00:39:04
imitated so far by these themselves
00:39:07
financial-industrial groups
00:39:10
apply all these calculations with their
00:39:13
employees and
00:39:15
then, in general, the crypto gaming market, the
00:39:18
private money market will develop
00:39:20
by leaps and bounds, and I emphasize that I
00:39:23
understand perfectly well that the state will under
00:39:26
no circumstances let
00:39:28
these guys out of control.
00:39:31
Do you need to run to withdraw rubles? deposits
00:39:34
due to the risk of freezing them Stas no, I do
00:39:37
n’t think that there is a risk of freezing
00:39:39
ruble deposits
00:39:41
because after all, with rubles, I think
00:39:43
that our authorities will
00:39:45
handle them quite carefully,
00:39:48
so the question continues: is it worth
00:39:50
opening an account in another country and storing
00:39:52
your savings there savings In general,
00:39:55
it’s better to keep it, as they say, in a glass
00:39:57
jar because an account abroad will help
00:40:00
if you don’t have a residence permit; it’s actually possible to
00:40:07
block it even if you have a permanent place of residence, because now, in general, the
00:40:10
compliance check of all banks is
00:40:13
quite deep and,
00:40:15
as you can see, there is also Mr.
00:40:18
Friedman, who is a lot there they discussed a
00:40:22
subject that many are either skeptical about, he
00:40:24
being a citizen of Israel, in general, his
00:40:28
accounts were blocked, we emphasize that he is a
00:40:31
citizen of another country and formally
00:40:34
the accounts cannot be blocked, but I
00:40:36
understand for what reason
00:40:37
he is eating kernel, just a banal one,
00:40:40
they will farm the wheel in Russian, just
00:40:42
whether it is worth buying real estate Northern
00:40:45
Cyprus in general is controversial because it is a
00:40:48
disputed territory, I think that if so
00:40:51
much of the country’s currency is coming in, it might be
00:40:52
worth reducing exports,
00:40:55
exports are being reduced, and they are being reduced
00:40:58
not thanks to the actions of our authorities,
00:41:00
due to the fact that buyers, in general,
00:41:02
refuse our goods, no matter how much they would
00:41:05
like it As you see, the future
00:41:07
relationship between Latvia and Russia will honestly and
00:41:09
honestly sign, I am
00:41:12
very afraid in general of our relationship with the
00:41:16
Baltic republics because the
00:41:18
rhetoric of our authorities is
00:41:22
more and more aggressive every time and
00:41:26
this is all connected, of course, there is a
00:41:30
direct connection, in my opinion, with our own
00:41:33
as we call it here in Ukraine
00:41:38
the Baltic states, despite the fact that it is a
00:41:40
country, in my opinion, from the point of
00:41:42
view of military potential, the windows are much
00:41:46
weaker,
00:41:47
then you know my attitude, I
00:41:51
treat them as
00:41:52
4 stops after Brussels
00:41:54
airport, is a
00:41:56
return in any form possible to an
00:41:58
apartment exchange between enterprises
00:42:01
or it will categorically not be allowed to not
00:42:03
allow tax, look at
00:42:06
barter in general and now there are
00:42:10
taxes here, it has nothing to do with it because
00:42:13
even when there was barter in the villages there were
00:42:15
nominal prices, so here tax not tax
00:42:18
will be a key stopper, but will
00:42:22
be that with generally developed
00:42:26
the market is full of real money,
00:42:29
including not only
00:42:32
fiat but also funds for other
00:42:34
payments, frontal barter, well, it’s just a mini
00:42:38
looks exactly the same as the system of
00:42:40
debt receipts,
00:42:41
I think that now there is no point in this,
00:42:45
tell me what will happen to investment investments, I’m
00:42:47
making deposits in Sberbank lost
00:42:49
almost 50 percent to 50 percent,
00:42:52
you’re still good moms 0 there are losses here and there are
00:42:56
more losses there, 80 percent each,
00:43:01
so everything regarding investments in the
00:43:05
right investment market, well, on Friday
00:43:09
we will have another stream of statements,
00:43:11
it’s March, I’ve never invested
00:43:14
in the Russian market, despite the fact that they have
00:43:17
brokerage accounts in Russian companies,
00:43:20
I always half-jokingly half-seriously
00:43:24
say that the Russian stock
00:43:26
market has told me to live long,
00:43:28
he would correct me absolutely
00:43:31
rightly, he corrects me, of course, that we
00:43:33
were what we weren’t, well no, he wasn’t yet, as
00:43:34
they say, he’s already floundering,
00:43:36
he’s got something there, and I absolutely agree with him in this part,
00:43:40
here’s the elephant, there’s
00:43:43
something there, so in general,
00:43:46
I think that essentially everything that
00:43:50
concerns these twenty-one
00:43:51
million brokerage accounts on the territory of the
00:43:54
Russian Federation, in general,
00:43:56
theirs have lost
00:43:59
the opportunity
00:44:01
about this, which is normally open on the
00:44:04
stock markets, I’m afraid that for many
00:44:07
decades only if you don’t change it to
00:44:10
your passport because I think that the
00:44:13
Russian Federation since the market
00:44:15
was really secondary Here are the
00:44:17
primary markets of
00:44:19
London, the
00:44:21
primary markets of New York,
00:44:24
I will say that for a long time we have completely lost the
00:44:26
opportunity to buy certain
00:44:29
shares there again and work with them, well, that
00:44:33
is, we will be discriminated against because I am
00:44:34
very serious, even
00:44:36
regardless of how the words end
00:44:40
so that with electronic wallets such
00:44:43
as kiwi you money they will be blocked or
00:44:45
not angelina it is unlikely that for now it
00:44:47
will be blocked because with kiwi yum
00:44:50
they are still working in what is a racist
00:44:56
legislative field in the Russian
00:44:58
legal field so no I will show you sleep
00:45:02
peacefully before that it is still a long way off
00:45:05
about Turkey what can you say about
00:45:08
Cyprus, both parts about the occupied cake,
00:45:10
can Turkey get to capture the entire
00:45:12
growth, I think that yes, technically nothing
00:45:15
interferes because today, in
00:45:17
general, but this is that they have less
00:45:19
interest there, that is, if you yourself in Syria are
00:45:22
interesting territorial
00:45:24
only as they say a pipe with
00:45:29
Cyprus on the territory of the territory in Turkey
00:45:32
is quite the 21st century, this is not a sport for
00:45:35
the territory, this is a meaningless story that
00:45:37
is taking over the territory, well, the truth is that
00:45:39
what I see in the adjacent
00:45:41
territory is nonsense, utter nonsense from the point of view of
00:45:44
economics, demography,
00:45:46
politics, the possibility of retention is lower, is
00:45:50
it worth pursuing now
00:45:52
investing in a plant for the production of
00:45:53
juice drinks and, like Andrey, if you
00:45:57
understand the sales system then it’s worth it
00:45:59
because Coca-Cola has
00:46:02
n’t burned down its factories yet and it’s unlikely that the spooler of
00:46:05
any kind and the Pepsi-Cola company that
00:46:08
got here have invested
00:46:10
trillions of dollars and
00:46:13
they now
00:46:15
have such a fork is
00:46:17
quite a dead end in that they supposedly
00:46:21
receive information via information
00:46:23
feeds, don’t forget some
00:46:25
local brands, local brands can be
00:46:27
launched as you wish, the key question is
00:46:29
whether someone will buy,
00:46:32
I understand that sometimes we have
00:46:35
some
00:46:36
custom
00:46:39
groups of people who speak but you
00:46:41
don’t need any, who dear
00:46:43
tells you that you need it
00:46:46
personally, although maybe you don’t need it, but
00:46:48
you like it, you don’t like it, well, what
00:46:50
is Tuchkovo’s best-selling drink, he chatted
00:46:52
when you were very distant in the distant times of the
00:46:55
2000s,
00:46:56
there was a mythological battle of the so-called
00:47:00
kvassniks with the tips of which are bushes
00:47:02
then they weren’t in packages with
00:47:05
Coca-Cola and Pepsi-Cola
00:47:08
kawasaki, they told us, but ours are
00:47:11
better than you, I openly say that memory
00:47:14
is correct, that until the drink is
00:47:16
promoted,
00:47:18
companies involved in beer and
00:47:20
soft drinks simply take
00:47:22
you into their pool, and as soon as it is
00:47:25
promoted, but this is exactly what is meant
00:47:26
as a drink, then I assure you that you yourself
00:47:29
will give up all your so-called brands for a pittance of faith,
00:47:32
and you will also have
00:47:35
pants full of joy that
00:47:37
finally someone bought this
00:47:39
absolutely lagging close husband. The key
00:47:41
issues are to sell so I
00:47:44
would say this,
00:47:46
if you understand the sales of food,
00:47:50
no one left the market, even if the giants leave, then
00:47:55
after them the kids remained, their
00:47:58
team remained, which for the most part
00:48:02
unpacked, but this was always
00:48:05
absolutely when
00:48:06
some kind of electronics market arose there.
00:48:09
it was difficult to keep the commercial
00:48:10
director to organize the
00:48:13
same shop in the next room selling the
00:48:15
same thing to
00:48:17
lure away just a buyer,
00:48:20
now we are back in the
00:48:23
90s when this is happening now, so
00:48:25
Andrey Klyuchi question lives in
00:48:28
what small business would you recommend for
00:48:30
the production of sales of equipment from a population of
00:48:32
100,000 Sergey I can’t recommend
00:48:34
any business because the key
00:48:36
issue is not 100 thousand population of
00:48:38
your competence but you are not three years old
00:48:41
you delusionally think that if I
00:48:44
tell you that there is pharma or biotechnology
00:48:47
there is a profitable story you can
00:48:49
do it you simply don’t have hands competencies
00:48:51
you have no skills you have no money you don’t
00:48:54
know the client so there should always
00:48:57
be much more excuse me much more
00:49:00
input data
00:49:03
sell a house in the Moscow region or wait I do
00:49:05
n’t live there it’s just worth it I Igor the
00:49:08
key question is if the buyer is now the
00:49:11
real estate market is at stake 90
00:49:13
percent
00:49:14
is not for sale therefore, sell what
00:49:19
if it’s just worth it and these are costs,
00:49:21
it’s better to still have real money on hand,
00:49:23
sell for good luck
00:49:26
in your search buy there is some money you
00:49:29
should buy a dollar to save
00:49:31
savings
00:49:33
treat
00:49:35
advice remain the same dollar
00:49:38
issue paper from two years if you have
00:49:40
possibility then please, if not then
00:49:44
don’t even bother what to do with
00:49:46
dollars stuck in Tinkov less than
00:49:48
10,000 bring it to 20 and withdraw through
00:49:50
Swift another bank withdraw abroad at the
00:49:53
cash desk or sit on your butt and wait for
00:49:55
September
00:49:58
I would enter another bank abroad or at the
00:50:02
cash desk Well, in general, I wouldn’t give it until
00:50:04
September because, frankly speaking,
00:50:07
my anxiety about industrial
00:50:10
enterprises I’m afraid may result in not
00:50:12
very adequate actions of our
00:50:14
government sometime in the
00:50:17
month of August because knowing them at what cost is
00:50:21
balance in terms of my
00:50:23
behavior I I understand that at
00:50:25
any second they can put under the knife
00:50:31
any slave’s property, namely, how
00:50:33
they treat us as slaves today,
00:50:36
so
00:50:38
I would remove
00:50:39
whether it’s worth keeping savings in
00:50:42
crypto now, German essentially does, you continue the
00:50:44
same question when I already said that
00:50:46
crypto is not about accumulation crypto is
00:50:49
about calculations please don’t do this
00:50:52
don’t accumulate please increase
00:50:55
the calculation don’t distort the market there will be a forestry
00:50:59
profitable shuttle business
00:51:02
shuttle business in
00:51:04
words there zero 90 and there won’t be because there is an
00:51:08
enterprise in this place
00:51:10
but now
00:51:12
the massive one will be closed car dealer it is clear that there
00:51:15
simply won’t be such salons anymore, but
00:51:18
they will be on the site and they will open;
00:51:20
commercial directors will open there;
00:51:25
sales directors will open there; service directors will open there; and
00:51:28
everyone else, therefore, did not
00:51:31
agree with Natalie for Boris that at the end of
00:51:34
the year the exchange rate will increase to Oleg
00:51:38
agrees with the ruble because NATO is very strong, but for
00:51:40
sure almost all economists say
00:51:43
one thing and that is that the course that is now
00:51:46
set, in general, does not allow
00:51:49
making ends meet;
00:51:52
the question is by what method, here is where we
00:51:55
can differ in terms of
00:51:57
understanding knowledge inside infrastructures
00:51:59
because something Leo works a lot with
00:52:02
growth there, I work not only with growth,
00:52:04
as they say, I work with this data
00:52:07
that comes from the State Duma and the
00:52:09
Federation Council for the registration of
00:52:12
the president,
00:52:15
unfortunately I also put an administrative so-
00:52:17
called mask on this, which is why we
00:52:19
can diverge a little works
00:52:21
with dry numbers after the fact, I try to
00:52:23
look beyond the horizon, understanding how each
00:52:26
of these divisions
00:52:28
behaves, I’m worried about the issue in the brokerage
00:52:31
account, there’s a considerable amount in the dollar, how
00:52:33
can I withdraw it?
00:52:41
you can’t record
00:52:44
losses, the plan will have to sit and wait for
00:52:48
better times, there are no options if you are not
00:52:51
ready, fix the same thing, I
00:52:53
also have a broker, one of the brokerage
00:52:55
accounts on which the currency is stuck, I’m sitting on my
00:52:58
butt, but I’m getting ready to record
00:53:01
losses, I’ll say I have special
00:53:03
illusions where is it better to store money so
00:53:06
-called coffin houses under the pillow
00:53:08
or on the card world ice aliona
00:53:10
please at home under the pillow on the card
00:53:14
world the general existence of this payment
00:53:17
system is a thing in itself, by and
00:53:20
large this entire infrastructure
00:53:21
can be replaced by one such thing
00:53:24
called cash and whether
00:53:28
someone likes or doesn’t like it, in general, you must
00:53:30
always compare each system according to
00:53:33
transactions in terms of costs and the
00:53:35
existence of cash is also the same
00:53:38
payment system no worse or
00:53:40
better than any other, and when we are everywhere
00:53:44
and all the time, you should
00:53:45
definitely use non-cash, I want to
00:53:48
always say spoke to the gentleman and lady for
00:53:51
any system there are costs, these are the servers, this
00:53:55
includes, by the way, the safety of
00:53:57
losing this money because there
00:53:59
is safety there is a danger there are losses
00:54:02
and cash that you can be robbed by
00:54:04
numbness you can be robbed by cyber
00:54:07
scammers and a cyber reprimand and therefore
00:54:10
today for all costs I
00:54:13
kind of abandoned all payment
00:54:15
systems and returned to the good old porridge,
00:54:17
in my opinion it is much more for girls
00:54:20
in every sense of the word, but I understand
00:54:23
why where non-cash is being promoted
00:54:26
because for the rulers of thoughts it is a
00:54:30
means of control just like
00:54:32
taxes are means control, which you and I
00:54:34
have discussed many times, why it seems
00:54:37
like it’s very my winter, my wonderful one,
00:54:39
and at least let someone else steal my
00:54:42
something wonderful idea of
00:54:43
exempting
00:54:47
personal income taxes from the minimum wage, no one
00:54:50
ever implements it, it doesn’t implement it precisely
00:54:52
because this system of control of
00:54:54
regions, moreover, is
00:54:58
it worth averaging the papers once a company
00:55:01
or by calculation, I would say that with
00:55:03
Russian companies in general you can
00:55:06
fix it and be happy,
00:55:08
well, I still have questions,
00:55:11
new questions have accumulated,
00:55:14
I will be very happy to see you Friday
00:55:16
on our communication forcibly that channel
00:55:18
which is just a groove of a kick it is located
00:55:21
separately there I am handsome and young and
00:55:24
wonderful and there we will SEO us as
00:55:26
usual Friday gatherings on Friday
00:55:28
subscribe like on social
00:55:30
networks repost everyone love everyone
00:55:32
bye

Description:

Экономист Дмитрий Потапенко в прямом эфире, а также в социальных сетях: https://t.me/PotapenkoDmitry https://www.youtube.com/c/PotapenkoDmitry https://vk.com/potapenkodmitry https://www.tiktok.com/@potapenkodmitry?lang=ru 🔔 Последние новости и анонсы программ с YouTube-канала «Живой гвоздь», а также контент от наших постоянных гостей и экспертов на официальном телеграм-канале: https://t.me/livegvozd Подписаться на Youtube-канал Дилетант: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCuIE7-5QzeAR6EdZXwDRwuQ?sub_confirmation=1 📌 Живой гвоздь в аудиоформате: SoundCloud: https://soundcloud.com/user-524451485 Яндекс.Музыка: https://music.yandex.ru/album/22141653?dir=desc Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/%D0%B6%D0%B8%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%B9-%D0%B3%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%B7%D0%B4%D1%8C/id1616175210 Google Подкасты: https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkcy5zb3VuZGNsb3VkLmNvbS91c2Vycy9zb3VuZGNsb3VkOnVzZXJzOjEwOTk2NzA5MDUvc291bmRzLnJzcw?sa=X&ved=0CAIQ4aUDahcKEwigxO3Eweb2AhUAAAAAHQAAAAAQEQ Магазин "Дилетант": https://diletant.shop/

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