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венедиктов

пастухов

живой гвоздь

политика

00:00:16

Well, good morning everyone, the morning

00:00:18

spread has ended, the broadcast on a live nail

00:00:20

continues after a two-week

00:00:22

break, after which I, for example, personally

00:00:25

really missed the Movchani program

00:00:27

on the air again. I am Evgenia Bolsha, a financier,

00:00:31

founder of the

00:00:32

Mong Investment Management Group Andrey Movchan Andrey

00:00:35

Andreevich Good morning Good morning Zhenya

00:00:38

good morning everyone I also miss you, to be

00:00:41

honest, the main thing is that I have

00:00:42

something to tell because during this time I

00:00:46

managed to do a lot of things, I

00:00:48

managed to visit a lot of places, but let’s not start with

00:00:51

this, let’s start with

00:00:53

saying a few words at the end the previous

00:00:56

program, which was a long time ago, everyone

00:00:58

forgot about

00:01:01

Ukraine and I still had a small

00:01:04

piece that I just wanted to

00:01:05

tell and show, connected with the fact

00:01:08

that in Ukraine, naturally, due to the

00:01:10

war, the conditions of existence changed very sharply

00:01:12

and at the end of the twenty-

00:01:14

second year,

00:01:16

it’s not clear how honestly confirmed

00:01:19

by statistics, but nevertheless, according to

00:01:21

world bank statistics, approximately a

00:01:23

quarter of the population is already below the

00:01:25

poverty level. This is approximately the level of 2006.

00:01:30

Until two years before the war, the world

00:01:34

bank estimated this figure at 55% of the population, that is, this is a

00:01:37

very serious and sharp movement in the

00:01:40

past since I planned to make this

00:01:42

lyrical digression to talk

00:01:43

a little about hunger and poverty in the world

00:01:46

in general, and now I still want to talk about it

00:01:49

because we

00:01:50

will then talk about very rich countries

00:01:53

and global investments, that is, everything

00:01:56

related to top capital and top

00:02:00

standard of living and so on, and you can’t

00:02:03

just suddenly move from one to

00:02:04

another, after all, don’t say what else

00:02:07

exists in the world, so Zhen will be able

00:02:10

to show us pictures Yes, very good,

00:02:12

thank you, there are several statistics that are

00:02:17

collected on the

00:02:19

state of poverty and hunger in

00:02:22

including in the world, here is one of the graphs

00:02:24

that Zhenya will probably be able to

00:02:26

show us now, I can’t see them from here myself, so

00:02:28

I can only hope

00:02:30

this is a graph of changes in the number of countries and the

00:02:34

number of people who suffer from

00:02:37

malnutrition in the

00:02:38

world, and while markets were growing and

00:02:44

economies developed and

00:02:45

throws money into the world economy, and you and I

00:02:48

discussed many times how to

00:02:50

make money in these markets and how people

00:02:51

become richer and the number of

00:02:53

billionaires became richer. Well,

00:02:55

look, from 2016 to the end of 202 WTO in the

00:03:01

world, there were more 10

00:03:02

countries suffering

00:03:05

from hunger from 48 of them became 58,

00:03:10

this is more than a quarter of all countries in the world and

00:03:14

if you look at the number of people

00:03:16

who are addicted

00:03:17

to malnutrition to one degree or another Yes,

00:03:22

this is well in this in this in this in this in this

00:03:26

diagram here are the only people

00:03:28

who are suffering from acute acute

00:03:31

nutritional deficiencies Yes, and this is almost four

00:03:34

billion, a little more than four billion

00:03:36

people, in fact, yes. And according to estimates from the

00:03:39

same world bank,

00:03:42

about a

00:03:44

billion people suffer from malnutrition in general, that is, 1/8 of the

00:03:49

planet’s population. It’s interesting to see

00:03:52

how ipc identifies which countries. Yes, when

00:03:56

it says about malnutrition here, of course, not

00:03:58

all countries, here is the following graph Yes, but

00:04:03

Ukraine is already on this list with that

00:04:07

same 25% of the population, that’s almost 9

00:04:10

million people who suffer from

00:04:13

malnutrition. And here you see the color

00:04:15

purple. This means that this is what

00:04:18

they call no no yes, yes, not mild

00:04:23

malnutrition, this is a serious

00:04:28

example of the Democratic Republic of the Congo and

00:04:33

Ethiopia in terms of percentages,

00:04:38

and among the countries that suffer greatly are

00:04:41

Afghanistan,

00:04:42

Pakistan Sudan. That is, these are

00:04:47

all Arab countries near the Arab

00:04:50

countries near the Horn of Somalia and are

00:04:54

connected in one way or another with the Red Sea and with

00:04:58

all this connected are the United

00:05:00

Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia,

00:05:02

which we will also

00:05:04

talk about today. And of course this entire region is a

00:05:08

territory of great contrasts, at

00:05:11

least Yes Please note that

00:05:14

Palestine is not on this graph, we recently

00:05:16

talked about the situation in Palestine Yes,

00:05:19

we remembered about OSM How OSM

00:05:21

characterizes the situation in Palestine,

00:05:23

if we talk about objective

00:05:25

figures there Pakistan Afghanistan let’s say that

00:05:28

Yemen, who is now

00:05:31

actively supporting Palestine, ends

00:05:33

up here Palestine itself is not here

00:05:35

in Palestine the situation was

00:05:37

significantly different, always for the better,

00:05:40

so to speak about what

00:05:43

causes these problems, yes, the third graph

00:05:47

is where we will probably end this

00:05:48

topic. It is as sad as it is

00:05:51

fast, in fact, everything is very

00:05:57

simple there 5x we say half of these

00:06:02

countries are suffering simply economically, these are

00:06:05

very poor

00:06:06

countries, some of these countries are suffering from -due to

00:06:10

weather problems, that is, countries with

00:06:12

seasonal farming, countries

00:06:14

that are actually mostly

00:06:17

so-called Sub countries, that is,

00:06:20

subsistence farming until now Yes, these are

00:06:22

12 countries in the world, 57 million people

00:06:25

still live on subsistence farming and

00:06:26

depend on the current harvest and on

00:06:30

territories of 19 countries and about 120 million

00:06:33

people 117 million people

00:06:36

number the international agency these are

00:06:39

countries that suffer from military

00:06:41

conflicts the number this increased in the year the

00:06:44

number this increased in the third year the number this

00:06:48

continues to grow at the end of the second year

00:06:51

the number of refugees that currently

00:06:53

exist in the world

00:06:55

has reached l

00:06:58

14 million people were added in the last year,

00:07:01

half of them are Ukrainians. This

00:07:04

is a sad topic, this is a sad story

00:07:06

that needs to be added to the story about

00:07:09

Ukraine.

00:07:12

But you and I can probably easily

00:07:15

spend 10 minutes on this and

00:07:18

move on to topics that are more

00:07:20

fun. What am I talking about? I’d probably like to start

00:07:24

talking Yes, there’s a lot in just 2

00:07:26

weeks Yes, so now we need to somehow

00:07:28

structure all this

00:07:30

I spent these 2 weeks in Dubai and

00:07:34

Cyprus, flying in on the way to Cyprus and

00:07:38

attended several very different

00:07:40

events at the same time I spoke at For

00:07:44

Global Sate in

00:07:46

La performed in several clubs and in

00:07:49

several places in Dubai So even

00:07:52

some patriotic channel wrote

00:07:54

that I earn money from performances. No,

00:07:57

unfortunately, I don’t earn money from performances, I

00:07:58

do it completely free of charge,

00:08:00

just as part of my marketing

00:08:03

work and public work. But one way or

00:08:06

another, very a lot of things I looked, I saw, I

00:08:08

probably want to reflect a few words

00:08:10

about the Emirates, where I haven’t been for 8 years.

00:08:13

And if you remember, we talked about the

00:08:16

Emirates. Well, a few months ago, let’s

00:08:19

say so, I don’t remember when in detail.

00:08:22

But if we talk about impressions about

00:08:26

what is happening now in the country, that means,

00:08:29

well, look, firstly, of course, it’s absolutely

00:08:32

incredible, in 8 years, a lot

00:08:35

has been built, this is probably the most active

00:08:38

world center of new capital

00:08:41

construction during this time, there is Dubai

00:08:44

Marina, which was I don’t know 15 high-rise buildings

00:08:47

when I was there 8 years ago, now there

00:08:49

are probably 50 of them and and so on everywhere Very

00:08:53

active

00:08:54

construction, it is felt that there are more

00:08:56

people, it is felt

00:08:58

that

00:08:59

life even over these 8 years has become

00:09:01

much more business and financial

00:09:03

centers are much more

00:09:05

active, it is clearly

00:09:07

visible that migrants take a much more active part in life

00:09:13

there, not the English who

00:09:16

came to work with investment

00:09:17

bankers, namely migrants from Pakistan

00:09:19

and

00:09:21

India I arrived just in time for the

00:09:25

anniversary of the founding of the United Arab

00:09:27

Emirates,

00:09:29

and in the center of Dubai there were simply

00:09:31

crowds that the police had to

00:09:33

regulate, as if a demonstration was going on,

00:09:35

but it was not a demonstration, it was just

00:09:37

People walking around the

00:09:39

city center. That is, that too what we

00:09:43

were talking about and the fact that there are a

00:09:45

lot of foreigners living in Dubai who, one way or

00:09:48

another, will most likely begin to determine

00:09:50

their agenda at a certain moment,

00:09:52

this is visible and

00:09:55

it can be felt that the infrastructure of

00:09:59

China is slowly reaching the same

00:10:02

infrastructural dead end. Yes, probably not in a

00:10:05

bad way in the sense of the word So far, yes,

00:10:07

because everything is working,

00:10:08

but there is already an unfinished building that is not

00:10:12

being built, which is already standing, there are clearly

00:10:15

sites that are prepared and that are

00:10:17

not functioning on which

00:10:19

construction is not being carried out, I specifically

00:10:22

went and spoke to the

00:10:28

postman due to the fact that the developer was unable to

00:10:31

start construction couldn’t go to the site

00:10:33

That is, this is it, it’s no longer possible to

00:10:37

miss the occupancy of the Opan premises, what

00:10:41

is called for newly built objects

00:10:43

that have recently been commissioned somewhere around 30-40 about

00:10:47

for older ones if this is not just not just

00:10:50

pinpoint central locations there there

00:10:53

somewhere- then

00:10:54

50-60 that is, it became free Yes, this is something

00:10:57

that 8 years ago did not exist 8 years ago

00:10:59

they said there is not enough There is not

00:11:00

enough There is not enough Well,

00:11:04

and against the backdrop of this,

00:11:08

of course, Absolutely, someone even called

00:11:11

amphetamine euphoria among the

00:11:13

Russian-speaking

00:11:15

population a lot Russian speakers from

00:11:17

Russia Belarus

00:11:19

Ukraine they are absolutely everywhere on the streets in

00:11:23

offices at

00:11:27

meetings and it’s very interesting that in contrast to

00:11:32

say in Europe Yes, now I live in

00:11:33

London Here,

00:11:35

uh, mostly Russians maintain very

00:11:38

subtle ties with Russia and

00:11:40

uh and relocate

00:11:48

such a project Metamorphoses, a series of interviews

00:11:51

about how Russian speakers restructured

00:11:54

their business globally in order to

00:11:55

leave Russia for business

00:11:57

and, on the contrary, to Dubai, the Russians

00:12:00

present in Dubai maintain very

00:12:02

close active ties with Russia, they have

00:12:04

operating businesses in Russia,

00:12:07

they fly, travel back and

00:12:09

forth, they absolutely do not consider themselves to

00:12:12

have emigrated, although they live in Dubai is strong

00:12:14

And it’s interesting that if there in Europe, let

00:12:18

’s say a person who was engaged in a certain

00:12:20

business, as a rule, tries to

00:12:22

do this business in Europe Well, or

00:12:25

globally or whatever else you say, Yes,

00:12:26

but in general he maintains his line of business

00:12:29

in

00:12:30

Dubai, the standard picture is what I see is

00:12:33

this a person who is in Russia, let’s say, well,

00:12:37

roughly speaking, he had a plant for the production of

00:12:40

sanitary ware, he comes to Dubai and here we

00:12:43

are sitting at a large table and he says, Yes,

00:12:46

I have a successful plant there for the

00:12:47

production of sanitary ware. I earn

00:12:49

money in Russia, and here I also invest in

00:12:51

startups. I do Kong and

00:12:54

photography, that is, in Duba there is a

00:12:56

conversion in Duba, a lot of people

00:12:58

are investing in startups. Very powerful

00:13:01

Angel de community is very serious,

00:13:04

I really really liked

00:13:05

the conversation, people work very seriously with the

00:13:09

evening about veins. We will also talk

00:13:11

soon because I have a lot of

00:13:12

things I learned some interesting things about it during this time,

00:13:15

there is a less serious

00:13:18

community, there is a very large

00:13:20

space of people who are involved in

00:13:23

cryptocurrencies, traditionally it’s a mystery to me

00:13:25

what they actually do,

00:13:27

but nevertheless, and in general this is a

00:13:31

place where Judging by what I see from the

00:13:33

reaction people everyone thinks that everything will be

00:13:36

incredibly successful, everything is growing,

00:13:37

huge incomes, everyone is incredibly

00:13:42

excited, everyone is having parties

00:13:46

there, you can give us a lecture, I can,

00:13:48

let’s do it on a yacht on a yacht, a

00:13:51

lecture, you will rent a yacht for the sake of Yes, of

00:13:53

course, I That’s very cool Let’s

00:13:55

let's give a lecture on a yacht and then a VN party

00:14:00

a little bit Great Gebi is like that and it

00:14:03

confuses me a little because of course there

00:14:04

are no economies in which everything

00:14:07

is growing any restaurant is successful any

00:14:10

business is wonderful while for Russian speakers

00:14:13

in Dubai this is a

00:14:15

period of initial euphoria as in any

00:14:18

migration process in including the business of

00:14:20

emigration, there is a certain period of initial

00:14:22

e-fri here in London. It ended a long time ago.

00:14:25

Here the people of the VRZ

00:14:27

work, this is there. This must be taken into account, and

00:14:30

against this background, Naturally, traces of

00:14:33

oversaturation due to Russian money there,

00:14:35

Russian entrepreneurship, Russians

00:14:37

are bringing there a certain culture of

00:14:40

capital

00:14:41

business, new ones are being created restaurants are

00:14:44

being created new clubs are being created new

00:14:47

service businesses are investing a lot

00:14:49

and of course all of this will be a

00:14:52

struggle for existence of course

00:14:54

something will survive something will not survive something something will

00:14:56

go away something is forced to somehow

00:14:59

transform through beer and

00:15:01

I have a feeling that this crowd,

00:15:04

speaking in youth terms, is not ready for

00:15:06

such a transformation while everyone is sure that

00:15:09

everything will be fine no matter what they do,

00:15:11

but we’ll see what happens next for now

00:15:14

Dubai is slowly entering into a

00:15:16

real estate crisis, liquidity has fallen very sharply, it’s

00:15:19

already very difficult... then

00:15:21

realize the secondary note much more

00:15:25

virgins recognized tago

00:15:27

rizi but let's see what will happen next I must

00:15:32

say by the way Probably the last thing

00:15:34

I want to say about Dubai is that a

00:15:36

very large influence in Dubai is

00:15:39

visible Immigrants from Central Asia

00:15:42

Immigrants from Uzbekistan from Kazakhstan

00:15:45

they feel natural even

00:15:47

more it’s organic because all this is to

00:15:49

say, a certain common environment and the same

00:15:52

special economic zone in Astana. It

00:15:54

was made according to the model of the Dubai special

00:15:57

economic zones

00:15:59

and they are also very successful there, by the

00:16:01

way, they also create different

00:16:02

businesses there and it’s also very interesting to communicate with them

00:16:05

there, so Russian-speaking not

00:16:08

only at the expense of the Russians But all this

00:16:12

leaves some feeling of already

00:16:19

overheated, well, let’s see Yes,

00:16:22

it’s difficult to say what will happen here Yes, by the

00:16:27

way, 2 hours before Vladimir

00:16:30

Putin’s arrival, thank God I didn’t catch this

00:16:33

phenomenon, he arrived very briefly for

00:16:36

a few hours

00:16:38

and so No one really knows why it

00:16:41

was a very quick visit, there is no

00:16:43

stone,

00:16:48

it’s sane or it won’t affect anything, we do

00:16:51

n’t understand it yet. Well, in

00:16:56

Dubai itself, of course, I talked a

00:16:58

lot about investments, about what is

00:17:01

happening now in the markets and some of

00:17:06

I probably want

00:17:07

to show this now. Just, probably, as an

00:17:10

illustration of what everyone

00:17:13

is thinking about now, about what’s happening.

00:17:16

And we generally talk a lot

00:17:19

about macroeconomics now because it’s right before our

00:17:21

eyes. How paradoxical it is.

00:17:24

Yes, we have always lived in such periods in

00:17:26

year 2 years 3 years

00:17:29

was there post-Covid year was there

00:17:31

twenty-first year of active growth was

00:17:34

twenty-second year of general correction

00:17:36

due to inflation and now suddenly

00:17:39

the macroeconomy began to come to life right

00:17:41

within weeks we lived through such a

00:17:44

depressive phase of the second half of the year

00:17:47

August September October markets fell

00:17:50

everyone said yes, there the labor market is

00:17:52

hot, the rate will not decrease soon

00:17:55

And all the investment markets are very expensive,

00:17:59

they must adjust even if the

00:18:01

economy there grows and so on, you probably

00:18:03

remember we discussed in September

00:18:05

the sun, yes And then suddenly November comes with the

00:18:07

arrival of November there is a sharp increase

00:18:11

only almost 10% up the American

00:18:14

stock market from 3 to 4% up

00:18:18

bond markets an absolutely unprecedented

00:18:20

growth rate for the

00:18:23

bond markets, which is considered a very experienced

00:18:27

specialist, the stock market

00:18:29

at the end of September says that on

00:18:33

ten-year Treasuries you can see a

00:18:35

rate of 7% because inflation not

00:18:38

defeated and the labor market is hot, uh, after a

00:18:41

month and a half He changes his testimony

00:18:43

completely, saying that 5% was

00:18:46

excessive and now he sold all positions

00:18:49

now. On the contrary, he sold short

00:18:52

positions. Yes, he closed now, on the contrary,

00:18:54

ten-year Treasuries should grow And

00:18:58

they are really very have grown significantly and

00:19:01

all the funds that were

00:19:08

positioned that everyone wants to

00:19:09

give themselves a New Year's

00:19:11

gift, everyone is already saying that

00:19:13

next year the rate will be reduced three times

00:19:15

and someone says the

00:19:19

refinancing rate in the

00:19:23

USA will be reduced five times and the current rhetoric looks something like

00:19:26

this, look and already 3% rate 5 25

00:19:32

5.5 that is, the real rate in relation

00:19:34

to inflation is

00:19:36

2.5% this is a very tight monetary

00:19:40

policy

00:19:42

no one needs such a tight monetary policy it is an excess

00:19:45

the rate must be reduced regardless of

00:19:47

what happens to the economy just

00:19:49

for the sake of to help this economy

00:19:51

continue to grow

00:19:54

and a winwin situation has formed in the market

00:19:59

Yes, if the

00:20:03

economy goes into a recession, then the rate

00:20:05

will be reduced because the recession needs to be

00:20:07

helped by the economy. And if the economy does not

00:20:09

go into a recession, then the company’s profits

00:20:12

will grow and since the company’s profits will

00:20:14

grow then anyway the markets will grow, that is

00:20:15

where the economy will not go, the

00:20:17

markets will still grow Let's

00:20:20

invest there, there is a very

00:20:22

indicative graph by the way

00:20:24

Now maybe Zhenya

00:20:27

will show us about it ends on November 17, but believe me

00:20:30

the situation there is exactly the same now, that

00:20:32

is, even even more, even everything

00:20:34

has grown as of today, today,

00:20:37

very big growth in the nazq for this year,

00:20:41

very big growth in the largest

00:20:44

companies nasdaq snp the so-called VI

00:20:46

Basket

00:20:47

and there it was 19-20 about mid-

00:20:51

November snp now it’s even much

00:20:54

more there since then

00:20:56

and at the same time

00:20:58

look carefully Yes equ so

00:21:00

called SN that is not by capitalization

00:21:03

Weighted index but Weighted as if to

00:21:06

say One share one vote Yes

00:21:08

democratic it grew by mid-

00:21:10

November by only 5% and not much more

00:21:13

now that is snp and nada show

00:21:16

growth only by their leaders, their

00:21:18

largest companies, that is, this growth

00:21:21

is mainly due to retail due to the fact

00:21:23

that people invest in what they know, yes And

00:21:27

in fact, the crowd determines the movement of

00:21:29

all markets, but nevertheless the movement is all

00:21:31

Up and there is a lot of euphoria

00:21:34

and we We treat this very carefully

00:21:38

And by continuing to make money on this Honestly,

00:21:40

yes, because the positioned

00:21:46

revision of all these positions, we are not as

00:21:49

confident in the reduction of rates as

00:21:53

the market in general is now confident for now. In my opinion,

00:21:55

this is an optimistic picture. Well, since we started

00:21:59

talking about this, let's talk about it again I

00:22:01

’ll just show you a few interesting pictures about

00:22:03

the market since we are already talking about

00:22:05

investments. For example, in the 10th century,

00:22:07

the situation with the S 500 is a classic

00:22:11

American stock market.

00:22:15

Investors love it very much; they love

00:22:17

to compare all

00:22:20

investments with it. Very often I hear a hundred VBA,

00:22:23

too, the USA famous fu but stocks are

00:22:26

growing Well, look carefully. Yes, look at

00:22:30

this

00:22:31

chart for 13

00:22:33

years of this century, that is, a little more than

00:22:36

half of this century, the stock market did not

00:22:39

actually grow. If you

00:22:43

had invested in it in 2000, then until the thirteenth

00:22:45

year you would not have gotten your

00:22:47

money back and then there was a huge surge

00:22:49

associated with a decrease in rates from about

00:22:52

56% zero to

00:22:55

Well, with a very soft monetary policy, this

00:22:59

soft monetary policy is the

00:23:01

basement of investment and the biggest

00:23:05

Stimulus Was, of course, after Covid when

00:23:08

huge unprecedented money poured

00:23:11

into the

00:23:13

investment market fall of the twenty-second year

00:23:16

here on the chart there is growth dgo it is

00:23:18

not there yet Yes, it is not drawn here, but you

00:23:20

can mentally draw it for yourself

00:23:22

snp has almost reached its

00:23:26

maximum now

00:23:28

And what he will do next is, as

00:23:30

always, a big mystery Because

00:23:33

now the money supply is declining, the rate is

00:23:36

still quite high the expectation from the fact

00:23:39

that it will drop to zero

00:23:41

even among the most optimistic

00:23:44

players the consensus says somewhere around 4% at the

00:23:48

end of next year I do not support

00:23:51

the consensus I am not sure that the rate will be

00:23:54

so low at the end of next year I VIU

00:23:58

Fed the question is how independent the Fed is in this case

00:24:02

Of course it will be because the

00:24:03

Democrats will need to show the best possible dynamics in the elections.

00:24:07

Well, if the Fed

00:24:10

holds on because it is independent or

00:24:12

because the leadership of the Fed understands that the

00:24:14

Republicans are coming to

00:24:16

power in America anyway, now more or less the

00:24:19

consensus also believes that Trump will be the

00:24:22

next

00:24:23

president one way or another Yes, I wouldn’t

00:24:27

say so definitely that the rate will

00:24:30

drop sharply. What else interesting can be

00:24:32

said about snp? Look at the next

00:24:35

graph, this is a bar chart,

00:24:40

this is an analysis of how a

00:24:43

three-year investor would feel, not in the sense that he is

00:24:45

3 years old, but in the sense that he is 3 years

00:24:47

to invest

00:24:48

in the S&P 500, that is, we all

00:24:52

have a finite investment range. We

00:24:55

invest money at some point. We

00:24:57

take it away. Yes, here is an analysis of such three-year

00:25:00

intervals in the 21st century. Yes there. Of course,

00:25:04

you could earn good money and

00:25:07

if you look somewhere

00:25:09

in the middle And there from 6 to 17% per annum there are

00:25:14

beautiful columns concentrated there

00:25:16

12% of investors earn from 6 to 75%

00:25:20

while 12 per annum earn from

00:25:23

7.5 to 9 and even 8% of investors from 14 to

00:25:26

17 but

00:25:28

what you need to

00:25:29

understand is that 8% of investors during this time

00:25:32

earned less than a min 11% per annum,

00:25:35

that is, they lost a lot of

00:25:37

money, almost every tenth

00:25:40

investor who entered 500 for 3 years

00:25:43

in the century Lost a lot of money 32% of

00:25:48

investors see the red arrow, it

00:25:56

corresponds to entering shares for 3 years

00:26:00

in the twenty-first year lost their

00:26:03

money and 52% of investors. That is, every

00:26:06

second investor earned less than the

00:26:08

average yield on bonds for this

00:26:11

period, that is, generally speaking, with all the

00:26:15

attractive properties of the stock, despite the fact

00:26:17

that the cumulative graph is like us, like

00:26:19

you we saw the previous graph, the cumulative

00:26:21

graph seems to be growing beautifully. At the same time,

00:26:23

when it comes to real

00:26:26

investments, everything turns out to be not quite so,

00:26:28

and only two out of three investors

00:26:31

made money on the stock market in the 21st century, and a

00:26:36

very interesting graph, by the way, is

00:26:38

connected with Bitcoin, we

00:26:39

discussed cryptocurrencies a lot in Dubai,

00:26:42

the community there is still very fond of

00:26:44

cryptocurrencies. Well, here is a chart of annual

00:26:48

investing in Bitcoin. Bitcoin is a

00:26:50

shorter thing, yes. Well, I think that you

00:26:53

remember. Yes, that Bitcoin just grew from

00:26:55

zero to plus infinity, and if

00:26:58

you look at this chart, then 13%

00:27:01

investors invested all their money in

00:27:03

Bitcoin for a year, they earned more than

00:27:06

1000% That is, this is very serious Yes, a

00:27:10

third of investors earned from 100% to 1000%

00:27:13

Every third Investor, but at the

00:27:16

same time 22% of investors received a loss of

00:27:19

more than 20% and 27% of investors, that is

00:27:23

almost every third person received losses from

00:27:25

such an investment, that is, Bitcoin is a

00:27:28

capricious investment too, Despite the fact

00:27:30

that this seemingly endless growth

00:27:32

yes And if you look at the graph of the

00:27:35

one-year result of investing in

00:27:38

Bitcoin, for example, starting

00:27:40

from the twenty-first year, then it

00:27:43

will turn out to be about 57-58

00:27:46

investors who received

00:27:48

losses, that is, and even such a thing, so to speak. A

00:27:51

beautiful story. It’s also not so beautiful.

00:27:53

When you

00:27:54

start to really invest in it.

00:27:58

What else is interesting? Yes, in the markets during

00:28:01

this time it was for the 21st century, what we

00:28:03

talked about in Dubai. Well, for example, a bond chart

00:28:08

portfolios

00:28:09

what is it remarkable about, yes it turns out

00:28:12

Zhen Yes, show it Yes, excellent What is it

00:28:16

remarkable about, first of all As you can see

00:28:19

here are different markets Yes, the American market is a

00:28:21

global market, the market of

00:28:24

American American treasuries is

00:28:26

definitely risk-free

00:28:28

and look somewhere from 2000 to 2015 the

00:28:32

results of these markets in general coincide

00:28:34

with each other, that is, in general, it does

00:28:36

n’t matter at all what kind of obligations you

00:28:37

invested in; in the end, you

00:28:39

received the same thing, then they diverge a little,

00:28:42

but they also diverge a little, and over the

00:28:45

23 years of this century, in general, they give

00:28:48

the result of growth, that’s where two

00:28:54

kopecks of life

00:28:56

have been holding for the entire century And these investments And

00:29:02

here we can also add that the risk-free

00:29:05

portfolio turns out to be average. And so to

00:29:08

speak, the worst portfolio

00:29:09

is the global portfolio. In this case, the

00:29:11

American portfolio

00:29:13

has been behaving better in recent years, but still the difference is not

00:29:15

very big and what’s interesting is that if

00:29:18

the shares brought just like stocks

00:29:21

They didn’t bring in income Yes, for the first 13 years and

00:29:24

then they started to bring in a lot of income, then

00:29:27

bonds behave exactly differently

00:29:29

Look, they bring in the main income for the

00:29:32

first 13 years and then in general for the last

00:29:36

10 Well, they grew strongly there until the

00:29:39

twentieth year and then from DD in the first year of

00:29:42

stagnation then a fall in the second and in

00:29:45

general the investor who entered these markets

00:29:48

in that year has earned almost nothing to

00:29:51

date if he just

00:29:52

stayed in and did not work through

00:29:56

some, that

00:29:58

is, the old story that shares of

00:30:01

bonds are disk between itself in the century

00:30:03

manifested itself in such a strange way:

00:30:05

they earn

00:30:07

one by one and not simultaneously, so

00:30:11

balanced portfolios, as it were,

00:30:13

gave average results, and so on and

00:30:14

so forth. Moreover, if you

00:30:17

look carefully at the picture, you will see that

00:30:19

the income from these portfolios is not very different in general

00:30:23

from income on

00:30:26

shares Boshe there with something the result of

00:30:29

indices from the year Yes here there ska with

00:30:33

something 2 from to Although rice is much

00:30:35

less volatility is much less

00:30:38

bond portfolio Well, and here is another

00:30:40

equally interesting bar graph, this is the one-

00:30:43

year result of investing in

00:30:44

American risk-free securities

00:30:46

American treasury

00:30:49

securities which, as a rule, are all

00:30:52

opposed to

00:30:56

obliri if you hold them until maturity. And

00:30:59

if you hold them as treasury

00:31:01

securities for some short time, then of

00:31:03

course there is a risk of changes in market

00:31:05

value and here is

00:31:07

a picture that generally says

00:31:10

that a short investor in treasury

00:31:12

securities risks a lot 5% of such

00:31:15

investors lost more than 20% during the

00:31:17

year of their investment 45% of such

00:31:20

investors did not make money but lost

00:31:22

money, that is, you also had to be

00:31:25

careful here, especially in recent years, you

00:31:28

probably Well, who follows investments

00:31:30

probably saw

00:31:31

that this same TLT fund, which

00:31:35

creates a wide market inside its

00:31:38

US treasury obligations,

00:31:40

lost something like 38% in price over the last

00:31:45

three years, there was a very serious

00:31:48

movement. Well, probably finishing the topic

00:31:53

about liquid investments and

00:31:57

what has happened in the markets

00:31:59

over the

00:32:01

century two pictures on hatch

00:32:05

funds For those who don’t know, I’ll explain that funds

00:32:08

are special managed

00:32:11

products that invest in liquid

00:32:14

markets and, in general, their task is to give

00:32:18

investors income greater than the income

00:32:21

that investors can get in the

00:32:22

markets on their own due to the fact that

00:32:25

experienced strong people work there I manage

00:32:28

it is considered and They receive a commission from

00:32:31

investors for management, here are the

00:32:34

next two graphs, the first graph is S

00:32:37

500 against the average value of the

00:32:41

results of educational funds that

00:32:44

invest in shares on the global market, this is the

00:32:47

blue one, this is S

00:32:49

500 black, this is the average average HC

00:32:56

which is

00:32:58

hfi Yes, such a

00:33:01

database Here you can see an

00:33:03

interesting dependence. Yes, the average fund

00:33:06

beat snp until 2008. Since

00:33:11

2008, the average fund

00:33:15

has been consistently losing to

00:33:18

snp for 15 years, which in general is not surprising because

00:33:20

S, of course, is at a completely

00:33:22

abnormal pace and any reasonable person

00:33:26

is over any unreasonable one because Tesla

00:33:29

has grown 162 times, for example, yes, the

00:33:31

share price, what kind of a reasonable investor after

00:33:33

Tesla grew 50 times, for example,

00:33:35

would maintain his position in Tesla, and Tesla

00:33:38

after that grew three more? Yes, of course,

00:33:41

here the sources of loss are clear, but

00:33:45

still, this must be taken into

00:33:46

account, it is necessary understand that, roughly speaking, the

00:33:48

average manager of these funds

00:33:51

has been receiving money for nothing for the last 15 years, you could

00:33:54

simply invest in the SN index. Feel good.

00:33:57

But if you take the

00:33:59

next picture,

00:34:01

a-and this is a fic son Yes, these are

00:34:04

bonds, these are

00:34:06

bond managers against the

00:34:10

American index bonds, yes,

00:34:13

here the picture will be Just the

00:34:14

opposite again, exactly the opposite until 2008, and the

00:34:18

game was approximately equal and even

00:34:21

slightly wins e index e

00:34:25

bond index Yes in 2008 Yes, and then

00:34:28

you can see how consistently funds

00:34:31

invest in conservative products of

00:34:33

the financial com funds began to beat indices and

00:34:37

continue to do so and are doing it

00:34:39

successfully and well, that is, so to speak,

00:34:41

if you think about history, then investing with

00:34:45

managers in the bond market was

00:34:47

correct and useful investing with

00:34:49

managers in the stock market is

00:34:52

average less good and less than average

00:34:57

it’s useless how it will be further, we don’t

00:34:59

know because we never know the future,

00:35:00

but nevertheless, this observation

00:35:03

can be taken into account and I

00:35:06

want to repeat this phrase again, don’t deceive

00:35:07

yourself in this case,

00:35:10

good funds, of course,

00:35:12

get results better than the market, good

00:35:15

funds exist good funds are not

00:35:17

very easy to get into. But they can be

00:35:20

found, but if you do not have the

00:35:23

appropriate training, then you will

00:35:25

most likely end up in an average fund, you

00:35:27

will get

00:35:32

results like this Well, probably ending

00:35:34

the conversation about large markets about

00:35:36

macroeconomics I have a beautiful

00:35:38

picture which you can probably just

00:35:40

hold on

00:35:42

the screen for a while, this is approximately what we now know about

00:35:44

the economy;

00:35:45

as always, in the future,

00:35:48

investment markets have their own drivers,

00:35:52

which are positive; their drivers, which are

00:35:55

negative; Roosevelt, in my opinion, said that

00:35:58

he would like to have one-armed analysts

00:35:59

so that they would not

00:36:02

say that there are on the one hand and on the

00:36:04

other hand Well, unfortunately, we

00:36:07

still have to talk about these

00:36:09

sides. On the one hand, there are now

00:36:12

obvious high rates and

00:36:14

economic slowdowns and a reduction in

00:36:16

monetary aggregates in the market, and this negative

00:36:19

impact on the other hand is

00:36:21

the fact that money There is also a lot in

00:36:23

the markets that the growth of markets is beneficial to everyone, we

00:36:25

discussed this from the

00:36:27

American budgets that

00:36:29

make money from this to large investors and

00:36:31

large corporations, and finally, the market is

00:36:33

naturally controlled by the crowd

00:36:36

and the crowd wants to earn money especially in the

00:36:39

period before Christmas, in

00:36:43

this in this situation uncertainty we

00:36:46

are in now, the year is

00:36:47

ending well for the markets, let's

00:36:50

see what will happen next year And in the

00:36:54

Emirates We mainly discussed

00:36:57

Not the markets themselves, we mainly

00:36:59

talked about what results can be

00:37:03

summed up for the military

00:37:05

business for the 20th century and probably also about that

00:37:09

I’ll say a few words now and

00:37:11

just in the last 15 minutes you and I

00:37:13

will have time to move on to the kingdom of Saudi

00:37:15

Arabia, which I flew back and forth

00:37:18

when I was flying to Dubai, so

00:37:24

SMZ is incredibly popular 2 years 3 years

00:37:28

ago everyone went to Ver everyone worked out

00:37:31

in the evening everyone invested in

00:37:34

Ver now the popularity has subsided somewhat,

00:37:37

now I hear about how difficult it has become

00:37:39

to find money and about that And despite the fact

00:37:42

that a lot of money remains in

00:37:44

venture

00:37:45

funds

00:37:49

invested Yes, dry they call it

00:37:51

true funds money that has not yet

00:37:54

been invested I see valuations on the vein market are falling

00:37:58

very much seriously, of course, many

00:38:01

funds will have problems, many funds

00:38:02

show very bad results

00:38:04

in the end because they

00:38:05

invested at the peak, the peak was somewhere in the

00:38:09

first year at the beginning of the second and if the

00:38:12

liquid markets behave

00:38:14

very well and the leaders of the liquid markets are

00:38:18

no longer there I follow the picture about

00:38:22

what happened with Tsemi on some

00:38:25

Americans

00:38:28

over the

00:38:29

past Well, this is not the last 10 years,

00:38:33

yes But since now 22D

00:38:35

everything is approximately equal, then we can say

00:38:38

that these numbers They are close Yes to

00:38:40

what was

00:38:41

happening now Yes, you can

00:38:44

look say Tesla 66 per annum

00:38:47

average growth Yes, absolutely

00:38:49

fantastic numbers 33% per annum Apple

00:38:53

27% per annum ro also 27 Microsoft 24%

00:38:58

yes, that is, some absolutely crazy

00:39:01

numbers and ordinary American citizens

00:39:04

who knew nothing except these names

00:39:06

and simply invested money in them

00:39:08

earned absolutely fantastic

00:39:10

income during this

00:39:11

time,

00:39:13

but at the same time, the venture industry, as it

00:39:18

turned out, showed much more

00:39:20

modest results, we also have a graph

00:39:25

published by the so-called bri

00:39:27

Business B. This is a

00:39:30

big one

00:39:31

that works in the field of analyzing the

00:39:34

right investments, and this graph needs to be

00:39:37

explained a little. it is not

00:39:40

drawn on it, there are two pairs of

00:39:44

curves, the upper one is green, green-yellow and

00:39:48

the lower one is blue

00:39:52

-red, which are dotted those copper ones

00:39:55

which are those average values Yes, for us

00:39:58

now to

00:39:59

talk about this, it doesn’t matter, so to speak, which of

00:40:01

them is which, it’s even important that there is these two are the

00:40:04

family of these curves. The upper curve

00:40:07

is called the

00:40:09

tvpi curve. This is a magic term used in the

00:40:12

evening, it stands for Total

00:40:15

value per Invest and

00:40:18

means

00:40:20

the relationship between How the

00:40:24

value of investments in a wealth fund is estimated and

00:40:26

how much money was invested in it.

00:40:29

Inve value is a little virtual

00:40:33

because well, what is this valued? You

00:40:36

can evaluate the investment any way you want.

00:40:37

The question is how much you will get from them for

00:40:39

sales. Yes, and here on this graph.

00:40:42

Now you will see it, so to speak.

00:40:44

Virtuality is what it looks like; the lower

00:40:47

curves are called DP;

00:40:50

these

00:40:52

other investments are how much money from the funds

00:40:57

investors received back per unit about

00:41:01

invested money naturally dpi is

00:41:03

lower than tvpi everywhere because people

00:41:07

tend to fantasize, they want

00:41:08

more than in reality Well,

00:41:11

look at the funds in the average fund lives for 10

00:41:13

years with approximately all of its renewals,

00:41:16

look at the sixth eighth tenth year,

00:41:18

that is, funds that already owe were to

00:41:20

finish their

00:41:22

distributions, distribution of money to

00:41:24

investors, less than

00:41:27

the estimates that were made

00:41:30

at the

00:41:32

level of the years, so in general this is a

00:41:34

huge difference there is such a spike. Why did the spike

00:41:37

arise because everyone decided that after the 2nd

00:41:39

year the investments were very cheap and they

00:41:43

would increase in price greatly, it turned out that they were

00:41:45

not so much cheap how many are very

00:41:46

bad and therefore the distribution of the sun

00:41:49

turned out to be the same

00:41:55

as

00:41:57

how modest the results for the

00:41:59

fund's themes are, the next

00:42:03

graph is just a transformation Well, into

00:42:07

such a chart, so to speak Yes,

00:42:09

transforming this graph into a chart

00:42:11

Look only

00:42:14

11% of these

00:42:16

funds

00:42:18

give growth even according to estimates of the total

00:42:22

value more than 3

00:42:25

times

00:42:27

This corresponds to

00:42:33

approximately 11% per annum before

00:42:37

commissions 11% per annum This is a good

00:42:40

result This is approximately snp Yes, but before the

00:42:43

commission the commissions there are quite

00:42:45

large Here and another 16% - This is from x to two,

00:42:49

that is, from 11 to 7% per annum, that is, in

00:42:52

general, quite modestly, and the

00:42:55

bulk of the funds,

00:42:56

about 70% of the funds,

00:42:59

give either 13 there, which is less than one. That

00:43:02

is, these are unprofitable funds or either weakly

00:43:05

weakly weakly profitable But this is

00:43:07

recalculated once again on the so-called, that is,

00:43:10

on the

00:43:11

assessment And if You look at the next

00:43:14

graph, it’s the same, but this is

00:43:15

already a distribution, here the situation

00:43:19

will still be

00:43:22

x.

00:43:27

That is, if you randomly

00:43:29

give money to a venture fund, then with a

00:43:32

probability of more than 50% you will

00:43:34

end up with a loss and not a profit; this is a

00:43:38

fairly serious

00:43:41

observation

00:43:43

already according to Well, according to some experience Yes, according to the

00:43:47

20th century there is also a certain

00:43:50

standard model of the so-called

00:43:52

good fund, this is the last Our chart

00:43:55

on this topic I hope that I didn’t

00:43:56

torture you too much with discussions about

00:43:59

investments, this is such a standard model of

00:44:06

income distribution of a normal background Yes, that’s what this

00:44:09

model is yes, let's look at it carefully, I'll finish with

00:44:11

this: the

00:44:14

standard distribution of investments of a

00:44:16

venture fund where 100 investments are made

00:44:18

Yes, it looks like this:

00:44:21

60% of investments 60 investments are simply

00:44:25

written off because they are unsuccessful;

00:44:27

15% of investments are written off

00:44:30

half; 12% of investments pay for themselves, that

00:44:33

is, they come out in zero 5% of investments give an

00:44:37

income of 50%, that is, they grow by

00:44:40

50% 4% grow by 400 3% grow by

00:44:46

2.5%, that is, 25 times and 1%, that is, one

00:44:50

investment is this A star investment,

00:44:52

it grows by 25,000 about that is,

00:44:54

250 That's it a beautiful picture of a venture

00:44:59

fund What does a beautiful picture of a

00:45:02

venture fund give, look at

00:45:04

the graph in the graph Yes,

00:45:05

from the point

00:45:07

of view of the profitability of this

00:45:10

fund, the annual return of such a fund is

00:45:13

dirty is the same

00:45:15

11%, a little less there 10 10 and

00:45:19

8% fn commission of

00:45:24

your

00:45:26

profitability in the end these are the expenses of the

00:45:29

fund itself, this is the so-called

00:45:31

management fee and income fee, and

00:45:34

ultimately the investor of such a fund

00:45:36

receives a little less than 7% per annum from his

00:45:40

investments in the venture

00:45:43

fund. Here is a

00:45:45

model that can be considered Well, not

00:45:49

golden, probably

00:45:54

7%, let’s say so to speak steel

00:45:57

standard today is

00:45:59

the result of venture funds

00:46:02

for the 21st century. Of course, there are funds that are

00:46:07

good and have brought a

00:46:10

lot. About 1% of the top American

00:46:14

funds

00:46:16

brought more than 25 dpi. That is, this is about

00:46:19

42% per annum. And yes, this is the annual return of

00:46:24

42% 1% of funds in Europe and the UK

00:46:28

brought an annual return of about 31% per

00:46:31

annum, these are certainly very good

00:46:34

results, incomparable with the results of the

00:46:36

liquid market. But this is a 1% fund, it is

00:46:39

almost impossible for an outside investor to get into this 1% fund,

00:46:42

and

00:46:44

especially for an outside investor who goes to a fund

00:46:47

that was made by his friends good

00:46:49

guys Yes, he should focus

00:46:52

somewhere on this steel standard. That

00:46:54

is, he will receive income from his

00:46:57

venture investments approximately in the amount of

00:47:00

income on the bond portfolio for the

00:47:03

same period, but only this will be Of course,

00:47:05

illiquid

00:47:07

and the risks will be quite large and

00:47:10

the requirements

00:47:11

for diversification should be quite

00:47:14

high and so on, this is what

00:47:16

we have now actively discussed, we are discussing

00:47:18

This is approximately what I told us about at the

00:47:22

fintech congress. The fact is that ntech is

00:47:26

not the best and the space for venture

00:47:29

funds, as it turned out, biotech

00:47:31

was much more profitable in the 21st century century, well, in

00:47:34

general, these are the discussions that

00:47:35

are going on now, and this also has a

00:47:37

depressing effect, of course, on the venture capital

00:47:39

industry, let’s see how it will

00:47:41

develop further in the new economic

00:47:44

conditions,

00:47:45

and here, probably, you and I have just

00:47:47

10 minutes left for us all- we still need to

00:47:49

start about Saudi Arabia, otherwise it’s

00:47:51

indecent Yes, I promised,

00:47:54

but to

00:47:56

investments and to the right investments. Of course, we

00:47:58

will return in the future,

00:48:00

we will talk next year in

00:48:02

some program. Be sure that what

00:48:04

has changed there, I foresee a wave of

00:48:07

indignant questions from

00:48:08

venture investors send write

00:48:11

I will answer them it will be very interesting to

00:48:12

discuss here And we Let’s

00:48:15

move on to our usual standard topic

00:48:19

about economic

00:48:21

geography I have a lot to talk about

00:48:24

Saudi

00:48:25

probably also an interesting space There are

00:48:27

probably no uninteresting spaces in general

00:48:29

and especially since I just

00:48:32

looked at it twice from above I was flying

00:48:34

over when I flew from Cyprus to Dubai and

00:48:38

back, it’s very sad of course

00:48:41

the territory looks there’s almost no one,

00:48:43

almost nothing is visible, mostly desert and

00:48:46

the flight is very long, that is, when you

00:48:48

fly from Cyprus You fly to the Red Sea

00:48:52

in 40 minutes, everything there is very

00:48:54

small and then for another 3 hours you just

00:48:58

fly

00:48:59

through the space of Saudi Arabia

00:49:01

until you get to the Persian Gulf 3

00:49:04

hours imagine flying from Moscow to Sochi for

00:49:07

2 hours and flying across to

00:49:10

Saudi Arabia is 3 hours Yes, this is a

00:49:13

very large territory, the area of

00:49:15

Saudi Arabia is a little more than 2 million kwa

00:49:19

Kim

00:49:22

2.15 million km this is generally a talk the thirteenth

00:49:26

place in the world in terms of area the area of

00:49:28

Saudi Arabia is equal to the area of

00:49:30

Greenland just offhand, but

00:49:33

remember the maps in the mercator projection Yes,

00:49:35

which are a little lying in size This

00:49:37

is Greenland Soria is a little smaller than

00:49:41

Algeria a quarter smaller than Kazakhstan and

00:49:45

is 2/3 of India, yes, that is,

00:49:48

a little Let's together change a little

00:49:50

our geographical representation India is

00:49:52

not such a huge country Yes, India is a

00:49:56

third larger than Saudi Arabia and

00:49:58

only a fifth larger than Kazakhstan Here is

00:50:01

Saudi Arabia, a large territory

00:50:05

We have a map of Saudi Arabia, one of

00:50:07

many which I am going to

00:50:08

show you, let’s show you what is

00:50:11

important to understand about Saudi Arabia,

00:50:14

firstly, we have not gone far from the

00:50:17

United Arab Emirates in terms of

00:50:22

food

00:50:24

in the same Arabian

00:50:26

Peninsula, but if you remember when

00:50:29

we talked about the United Arab Emirates Arab

00:50:31

Emirates, we said that the whole life of the

00:50:32

United Arab Emirates for the last

00:50:35

88,000 years at least revolved around the

00:50:38

so-called Southern Transport

00:50:39

Corridor which went A through Babel

00:50:42

Manda Yes through the Strait of the Red

00:50:45

Sea e between the Red Sea and the

00:50:48

Gulf of Adam A and the Strait of Hormuz which is

00:50:51

actually between there the United

00:50:53

Arab Emirates, Oman and modern

00:50:55

Iran in the Persian

00:50:57

Gulf, so Saudi Arabia is a

00:51:00

territory that is not exactly located on the

00:51:04

line of this Southern

00:51:06

Corridor, on the line of this Southern Corridor, it

00:51:08

is located in Aman. The

00:51:10

United Arab Emirates is an

00:51:13

ancient, actively developed civilization,

00:51:16

such a wonderful cat

00:51:19

and Saudi Arabia is exactly what is

00:51:21

not included

00:51:23

in this trajectory is the

00:51:26

second thing that is important to understand about

00:51:28

Saudi Arabia, here we have a

00:51:30

slightly modified map, I’ll draw

00:51:32

it a little on purpose.

00:51:35

Saudi Arabia once upon a

00:51:38

time After the Ice Age and before the

00:51:42

period of the Great Desertification

00:51:46

which happened about 7000 years ago the

00:51:48

territory was generally suitable for life,

00:51:51

and just as sugar is lower than sugar,

00:51:58

desertification of civilization has become. And generally

00:52:03

speaking, Saudi Arabia, now we

00:52:05

’ll talk about this in a little more detail, is the

00:52:08

birthplace of so many things that are

00:52:10

considered an integral part of

00:52:12

the civilization of modern man, but

00:52:16

somewhere 7-8,000 years ago,

00:52:18

desertification began and Saudi Arabia

00:52:21

was divided into exactly two parts, that’s what

00:52:23

I’m going to tint a little, a

00:52:26

long line along the shore of the Red

00:52:29

Sea, in the south it’s just a humid temperate

00:52:33

climate, well, a tropical temperate climate, and

00:52:36

in the north it’s a steppe climate where it’s

00:52:39

quite active vegetation, but at the

00:52:42

same time this is a mountainous terrain, because here is the

00:52:43

line, the

00:52:46

border line, this is a green zone - these are mountains.

00:52:50

Yes, and the mountains are quite high, there

00:52:52

are mountains 3000m high 25

00:52:56

this is very decent. The sun that is located to the

00:52:59

east of these mountains when you go down

00:53:02

from these mountains is the last 7000 years

00:53:05

desert desert Stone desert

00:53:07

Sandy desert which is cut by the so-

00:53:10

called water These are small oases

00:53:13

located along seasonal rivers

00:53:16

seasonal river - This is a river that flows during the

00:53:18

wet and dry period

00:53:24

and this situation very clearly

00:53:27

determined the civilizational development of

00:53:30

Saudi Arabia and how

00:53:34

the population was formed and the occupations of the

00:53:37

inhabitants of Saudi Arabia were formed.

00:53:40

But this Green stripe Yes, it is somewhere

00:53:44

from 160 km wide to 480 km wide, that

00:53:48

is, in general,

00:53:51

not

00:53:53

much at all, if you take the third map, it is

00:53:57

no different from the second except for the TX

00:54:00

points, just to we visually

00:54:03

memorized this map, then we will

00:54:04

say the sun will revolve around these

00:54:06

TX points Yes, the entire history of Saudi

00:54:09

Arabia is

00:54:10

practically these three red dots, three

00:54:12

cities that now exist. Clearly, there are

00:54:15

more cities Yes, but these are three important

00:54:16

cities Medina Mecca,

00:54:21

like the

00:54:25

Reyat, is located in the yellow zone very

00:54:28

very much in the middle of the yellow zone

00:54:31

in a space in which for many

00:54:34

thousands of years, in general, deserts have been located.

00:54:38

But if you look closely at this

00:54:39

map, you will see that there is a

00:54:41

small small small

00:54:43

dotted blue line near the Riyadh. That is, it is

00:54:44

naturally located in an oasis, because

00:54:47

otherwise cities in general in principle, it is

00:54:48

impossible to locate Riyadh - This is the

00:54:50

current capital of Saudi Arabia,

00:54:53

why is it not Meqa or Medina, we

00:54:56

will figure it out a little

00:54:58

later, so if we are talking about

00:55:00

history, in 3 minutes we will go through the

00:55:03

most ancient history of Saudi

00:55:06

Arabia, the first artifacts that

00:55:08

are on the territory

00:55:12

deserts are 500,000 years old

00:55:16

500,000 years ago Imo

00:55:21

Sapigo cousins and sst were already here

00:55:25

and, in principle, Arabia is considered the capital of the so-

00:55:28

called Ai

00:55:30

culture. Ai culture is a

00:55:33

specific culture of creating stone

00:55:34

tools, that is, from here from Africa through

00:55:39

Arabia there was a large flow of migration that

00:55:43

further went further spread throughout

00:55:46

Europe throughout

00:55:47

Asia because it was a very long time ago. I’m

00:55:49

now telling you the working theory. It is clear

00:55:52

that no one knows exactly how

00:55:53

this happened

00:55:57

and this entire space was one of the

00:55:59

centers of cultural development; the Paleolithic

00:56:02

passed into the Neolithic; the Neolithic finds are

00:56:05

also very

00:56:07

extensive, but where - 7000 years

00:56:10

ago these finds

00:56:12

end for a very clear reason

00:56:15

because desertification occurs and

00:56:18

just like in the Sahara people are forced to

00:56:20

leave these territories

00:56:23

after settlement on the yellow part of the

00:56:27

territory of Saudi

00:56:29

Arabia the settlement is prehistoric

00:56:31

Naturally yes there are a

00:56:33

lot of historical ones it is conventionally called before Saria

00:56:36

dates back to about 7000 years ago it

00:56:39

was located somewhere 800 meters from the

00:56:41

shore of the Persian Gulf above Bah If

00:56:43

you look at the map, look there there is a

00:56:46

fairly large exit to the Persian

00:56:48

Gulf of Saudi Arabia. That's about where it was

00:56:50

located above Bahrain,

00:56:56

most likely this settlement is the Southern

00:56:58

Frontier, the southernmost point a large Bois

00:57:00

culture that was then located

00:57:03

throughout Mesopotamia, these are the predecessors

00:57:05

of the Sumerians,

00:57:06

and once upon a time when I was at school, it

00:57:08

was believed that the Sumerians were the first

00:57:11

developed culture in the Mesopotamians, but

00:57:13

now everyone already understands that this is not so, and the

00:57:14

GOC Tp has been excavated since then and there are a lot of

00:57:17

monuments of the Ubai culture, these

00:57:19

predecessors of the Sumerians located their southernmost

00:57:22

outpost where the

00:57:25

north of Saudi Arabia is now located. And

00:57:28

with you and I, Time is running out and we will move on to

00:57:31

times that are

00:57:32

only 5,000 years behind us in a

00:57:35

week and I hope that in an hour we

00:57:37

will finish the conversation about Saudi Arabia

00:57:40

And now for now we need to say goodbye

00:57:42

Yes, thank you very much Andrey Andreevich

00:57:44

Andrey Movchan financier founder of the

00:57:46

Group of Investment Management Companies

00:57:48

Yaniya Bolshakova on Next

00:57:51

Tuesday at the same time, see you all

00:57:53

the best

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