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Russian
00:00:00
friends Hello everyone Today we have a very00:00:03
important perhaps system-forming topic00:00:06
that directly or indirectly concerns00:00:08
life. Well, every Russian has a question about00:00:11
finances about the budget about the exchange rate of the national00:00:14
currency about whether there is money in the budget and in the00:00:17
treasury, this is not just a question about our00:00:19
standard of living, the contents of our wallets. the00:00:22
so-called deep people whose00:00:24
23 years have been raising their knees with a negative00:00:26
rate of this same rise. This is the question00:00:29
of how long the ruling authorities will be able to00:00:32
pursue their foreign and domestic00:00:34
currency risky policies if they have the money00:00:36
to carry out so-called00:00:38
military-political special operations and00:00:40
other actions if they resources And00:00:43
if they are not there, from what pocket will they00:00:44
get them in order to continue to carry out00:00:47
what they today call the Great00:00:49
Patriotic People's Sacred00:00:51
Landing of the damned West where00:00:54
they exported hundreds of billions and00:00:56
trillions of dollars over the last 30 years of00:00:58
reforms and where are you families of your children where are00:01:02
their yachts where are their forks where are their billion-dollar00:01:04
fortunes So let's understand this issue,00:01:06
try to understand what is00:01:08
happening in the economy and what is happening00:01:10
today with the budget. This means that those forecasts and00:01:13
those figures that we voiced00:01:15
throughout 2022 that the real gift in00:01:18
the budget will be much more than that what they00:01:20
promise us Putin Medvedev Kiriyenko00:01:24
Mishustin Silanov that this hole will00:01:27
far exceed the given parameters these00:01:29
forecasts have largely come true Yes,00:01:32
of course, the ruling government drew an00:01:34
excess of expenditures on income for 22 years,00:01:36
that is, the budget deficit is00:01:39
only 3.3 trillion rubles, as the Minister00:01:42
of Finance said Silanov says this is not bad.00:01:44
This is a good indicator, meaning only00:01:46
2.5% of GDP. Although let me remind you that before the00:01:49
start of the so-called00:01:52
weight toning policy, it means that they generally00:01:54
predicted a budget surplus, an excess of00:01:55
revenues on expenditures by more00:01:58
than 1.5 trillion thousand rubles,00:02:00
almost one percent from GDP That is,00:02:03
in 22, with all the pressures, with00:02:07
all the increases in taxes, excise taxes,00:02:10
which means various types of taxes on the extraction of00:02:12
minerals, partial withdrawal00:02:15
of excess income, and exporters still00:02:17
received a gap in the budget system of00:02:19
almost 4.3 percent of GDP, compared to00:02:23
what they planned for 22 a year and a half00:02:25
trillion in income and the fact that we received a hole00:02:28
of 3.3 trillion rubles, that is, 4.8 trillion rubles,00:02:32
respectively. This is a pure loss,00:02:35
only the budget system, we are00:02:37
not talking now about the fact that the Russian00:02:39
economy, too, instead of growing by00:02:41
3.5-4 %, as was predicted in the twenty-00:02:44
first year for the year 22 before the start of the so-00:02:47
called de-Santanization policy and there the00:02:50
Holy War of the fight against Iblis and,00:02:52
therefore, Satan, they promised that the economy would00:02:56
grow by 3.5%, in fact the economy00:02:58
fell with everyone there by about00:03:03
2, 73 percent, that is, a net loss of00:03:06
about 6.5 percent of GDP, which in terms00:03:10
of rubles is Well, approximately,00:03:11
So00:03:13
already 8 and a half nine trillion00:03:17
rubles and this is a hole 8.5 rubles is a00:03:22
loss for the economy Without taking into account the fact that the00:03:25
decline in the economy is much greater that00:03:28
this drop of 2.7 percent that00:03:30
Putin said is, by and large,00:03:31
is phantom, that is, this is the average00:03:34
temperature in the hospital, which is greatly00:03:36
distorted because the elite has a trillion00:03:38
rubles in the defense industrial complex,00:03:39
increased spending on the Ministry of00:03:41
Defense on law enforcement on security forces00:03:43
for all people in uniform, in total for00:03:46
2022, an increase in expenses of more than00:03:49
one and a half times, just think about this00:03:50
figure in total from six to at least00:03:53
9.5 And I think it’s already more than ten00:03:56
trillion rubles, yet there are no00:03:58
reports from the Ministry of Finance, we don’t know00:04:01
exactly the structure of expenses by type by00:04:03
ministries by departments by our00:04:06
programs But the fact that the figures were for the00:04:08
month of October that for 22 they planned00:04:10
approximately 5 trillion rubles of00:04:13
expenses for the Ministry of Defense instead of three and a00:04:15
half and for other security forces this is the FSB00:04:18
Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Russian Guard means the Federal Service for00:04:21
the Execution of Punishments00:04:24
bailiffs of the Prosecutor's Office00:04:25
Investigative Committee expenses approximately00:04:29
4.3400:04:30
trillion rubles instead of the initially00:04:33
planned 2 and 7 28 trillion, that00:04:36
is, the total increase in spending in00:04:38
this area is approximately three and a half00:04:40
four trillion. But I wouldn’t be surprised if there00:04:42
was more in the loaf; this money00:04:44
certainly loaded some of the enterprises00:04:46
up to the Old Yes, on the old already In Soviet00:04:49
equipment, some equipment00:04:50
was generally supplied before or there the00:04:53
October February Revolution of the00:04:54
seventeenth year, which means that this made it possible to00:04:57
somehow load capacity and show00:04:59
statistics that there is payment of wages,00:05:01
production of Industrial products for the purchase of00:05:04
working capital, but it is impossible to live on this,00:05:06
that is, this is not milk It’s not00:05:08
eggs, it’s not bread, it’s not clothes, it’s not medicine, it’s not00:05:12
civil technology, it’s not cars, it’s not00:05:14
square meters, it’s not consumer goods; the00:05:16
quality of life doesn’t improve from them,00:05:18
so the fact that there’s an increase of00:05:20
40-50 means 100% in the00:05:22
defense-industrial complex And the00:05:24
rest of the sectors the drawdown is the same00:05:26
if we take it from exporters and take into account00:05:28
exporters of raw materials oil gas fertilizers00:05:32
metallurgy and coal miners went into the red in the00:05:34
second half of twenty-two, in00:05:37
general it turns out that the00:05:38
scale of the economic decline is much00:05:40
stronger and exceeds in a number of industries 1500:05:43
to 20 percent, especially in domestic00:05:45
deep processing raw materials mechanical engineering00:05:48
instrument making automotive00:05:49
aircraft construction where there was a high00:05:51
degree of integration with the West with Europe and00:05:54
America global production00:05:56
technological chains over there the00:05:58
drawdown is more than serious, for example, we00:06:01
know the figures for the automotive industry where the00:06:03
drop in sales is from 70 percent plus, that00:06:06
is, a drop of more than three times in00:06:07
some areas more than 5 times00:06:09
means this question about the decline of the economy,00:06:12
it is much more, far from 2 and 700:06:15
percent, much more and the price is00:06:18
all the military-political stories that the00:06:20
Russian government has been sailing for decades,00:06:23
by and large, sales there are not a gift of00:06:26
feeding from the budget, enriching friends00:06:28
of the oligarchs sales abroad of00:06:31
indisputable sold resources without00:06:33
processing within the country without the development of00:06:35
domestic industry of domestic00:06:37
high-tech production, this is a00:06:39
parasitic system that they00:06:40
will build, which all the countries there fled,00:06:42
Ukraine and Georgia, Armenia, Kazakhstan and00:06:45
neighboring Central Asia, Tajikistan,00:06:47
Kyrgyzstan, etc., not counting came to00:06:49
earn money in Russia, that is this model00:06:51
was absolutely, let's say,00:06:53
unviable, non-00:06:55
competitive,00:06:56
oligarchic nomenklatura system. This is what,00:07:00
by and large, brought us00:07:01
to where we arrived. We sailed in the twenty-second00:07:03
year like this: dictatorship of oligarchs, dictatorship of00:07:05
swindlers, dictatorship of the nomenklatura00:07:08
means. Therefore, now the authorities understand00:07:11
that they have a hole in the budget, a hole in the budget00:07:13
only officially 3.3 trillion rubles for, as00:07:17
I already said, there is much more of a gift,00:07:19
as well as a much greater decline in the economy. That00:07:21
is, if we take into account the so-called00:07:23
unplanned revenues from Gazprom from00:07:27
which they were ripped off and an additional00:07:28
trillion 250 billion rubles in mineral extraction tax00:07:31
from which they took another00:07:34
600 billion rubles, which means00:07:37
dividend payments, and 600 billion00:07:39
was received by the budget and 600 billion means in the form of00:07:42
dividend payments for the first half of the00:07:44
current year last 22 years when00:07:47
gas prices were high there, not 300 dollars,00:07:49
but for 1,000 cubic meters in Europe And there were 2,00000:07:52
3,000 dollars per thousand cubic meters00:07:54
when Gazprom earned huge00:07:55
export income, half of it was taken by00:07:57
600 billion and 600 billion was paid by00:08:00
the millionaire, among whom are the same00:08:02
Millers, the same Russian big00:08:04
business officials, including Western00:08:07
foreign companies, foreign00:08:08
creditors, shareholders, including from the so-00:08:10
called countries of decay without the00:08:13
spiritual West, which00:08:17
all those Hooray patriots and United Russia00:08:19
and the Russian government are not fighting supposedly in words on paper on TV. That means plus a00:08:22
trillion rubles were created by the00:08:25
printed central bank. Well, it’s clear that00:08:27
they haven’t seen some kind of paper means00:08:29
nomenclature without seeing cut paper00:08:31
Namely as well as the mission in such a virtual00:08:35
form in the form of zeros and numbers on the accounts in the00:08:39
computer on the monitor screen Yes, but00:08:41
nevertheless, more than a trillion were00:08:43
created by the central bank simply to00:08:46
finance the budget deficit to00:08:48
plug this growing Hole in00:08:49
the budget, which also means in the end summer of 22,00:08:52
that is, the Ministry of Finance formally carried out such an00:08:56
effective transaction, rewrote its00:08:58
frozen foreign exchange assets in00:09:00
dollars, euros, pounds sterling and in00:09:02
Japanese yuan, into accounts, which means00:09:05
the Central Bank has passed, cannot00:09:07
dispose of them, cannot sell them on the market00:09:08
because all these assets there are more than 30000:09:10
50 billion dollars for ice cream and00:09:13
the Central Bank cleared it from itself, although it00:09:15
was not listed there in a different account and00:09:17
printed a million rubles, this one, just00:09:19
according to this scheme, trillion 800 from Gazprom was00:09:22
taken away from Gazprom, they printed it already here,00:09:25
it’s clear that Well, practically speaking, let’s say00:09:28
23 per 800 billion is still00:09:30
additional over and above, let's say,00:09:33
unaccounted excess income without taking them into account without00:09:36
taking into account these incomes the budget would be00:09:38
much larger it would be more than 600:09:40
trillion rubles I have said many times00:09:42
speaking both on my channel and on00:09:44
television on the radio What the00:09:47
Ministry of Finance actually has And on the website it’s00:09:49
official the figures generally diverged from00:09:51
the statements of Silanov and Putin and00:09:53
Mishustin, that is, literally until probably00:09:56
January 15-16, until the data were updated00:09:59
after the New Year, the latest figures for00:10:01
budget execution were as of00:10:04
December 20 or 21, 22. That is, 1000:10:07
days before the New Year and there in black and00:10:10
white, what we talked about in the streams there00:10:12
from Nikolay Bondarenko and with Dmitry00:10:14
Potapenko and Zhenya Stupin means the hole00:10:17
was more than 6 trillion rubles. That is, in the00:10:20
last 10 days of00:10:23
22 years it was planned to spend an00:10:26
amount of more than00:10:29
four and a half trillion rubles,00:10:32
while that even five trillion00:10:34
rubles were already 5 trillion rubles, despite the fact that a00:10:36
deficit of more than a00:10:37
trillion had already accumulated and there was no revenue at all, the00:10:40
income was negative by00:10:42
35,400 billion rubles, that is, they had to00:10:44
spend 10 days according to official00:10:46
data from the Ministry of Finance, right on the first page,00:10:48
I this many times on the first page of00:10:50
scrolling the site at the bottom there were statistics of the00:10:53
fund of us welfare there are 1100:10:55
trillion 300 billion rubles of which00:10:57
less than a third are liquid there and then00:11:00
the figure for the budget and if these figures are00:11:04
summed up it turned out What does it mean by the00:11:07
end of the year expenses are 5 trillion00:11:08
accumulated income is00:11:11
practically negative 400 billion and an accumulated00:11:13
deficit of a trillion and a personal ruble. In total, there is a00:11:16
huge hole that it is clear that there00:11:19
was nothing to plug with, and now literally00:11:21
fresh figures have just come out, meaning00:11:23
the Ministry of Finance about where00:11:25
the money was not taken, it turned out that the Ministry of Finance was spending it at an insane00:11:28
pace on an unprecedented scale. This00:11:30
means that the fund’s money is for our00:11:32
well-being according to official data, they00:11:35
spent00:11:37
more than 35 billion dollars in December 22 alone, that’s two and00:11:41
a half trillion rubles in00:11:44
December alone, in order to spend this00:11:47
huge money in December on payments00:11:48
mobilized to the military00:11:50
defense-industrial complex of the security forces,00:11:52
what kind of handouts were there,00:11:55
and there were some payments to state employees00:11:58
minimum for the poorest and most00:12:00
needy categories of citizens, after all,00:12:02
these one-time payments mean00:12:05
children00:12:07
in families with incomes below the subsistence00:12:09
level, but in other words, the National Welfare Fund00:12:12
has decreased from 183 to 148 billion00:12:15
dollars; in fact, the more or less liquid00:12:19
part is not even liquid, and the fact that it is not00:12:20
frozen means less than 8700:12:24
billion dollars because the rest of00:12:26
these 60 billion were invested in00:12:29
euros, Japanese yens, pounds sterling were00:12:32
frozen, confiscated for the most part,00:12:34
frozen for now, but soon confiscated by00:12:36
the West, and of these there are 87 billion dollars.00:12:39
Apparently, the more or less liquid00:12:41
part, if you also remove all00:12:43
investments from there, you are shares Sberbank in the bonds of the00:12:46
Russian Railways Aeroflot in the00:12:49
bonds of00:12:50
Vnesheconombank house of the Russian Federation and so on and so on,00:12:53
let's just say these men were00:12:56
either irrevocable investments in capital00:12:59
or in debt. He understood that a little, well, the00:13:01
bank is not Russian Railways, there is no web, not houses of the Russian Federation, they are00:13:04
not going to pay anything, it’s just trivial00:13:06
there is no money, they can only, on the contrary,00:13:07
sit on the suction of the budget and constantly00:13:09
pump these resources to themselves, so it00:13:12
turns out that there are really liquid assets00:13:14
Well, about 35 billion dollars00:13:16
invested in Chinese yuan and gold Well,00:13:19
before these expenses It was about 4700:13:21
billion fifty billion00:13:23
dollars now this is probably the amount that00:13:25
was reduced after spending 35 billion, but just00:13:28
how much, but the figure is00:13:31
about 2000:13:32
5 plus or minus billions of dollars and it does00:13:35
n’t give us exact data now, which means00:13:37
the Ministry of Finance can’t work it out, we can’t00:13:39
estimate them, but be that as it may, the authorities already00:13:42
understand what it means they have a fight.00:13:45
In the budget they directly say about it that00:13:48
expenses in the twenty-second year increased00:13:50
from 25 to 31 trillion rubles, which is00:13:54
almost00:13:55
20, 2 23 percent, they00:13:58
were also able to increase the revenue part, but by no more than00:14:01
12 percent, and that left a hole. and for00:14:04
the year 23, which in all respects in00:14:06
all respects will be even tougher,00:14:09
even more crisis, even more00:14:12
cruel from the point of view of this00:14:14
endlessly continuing fa de factors00:14:17
not canceled by Putin’s decree of the00:14:20
notorious cleansing mobilization,00:14:22
addressed to the exact presentation of the rake without the00:14:25
announcement of a general nationwide00:14:28
all-Russian mobilization Yes to what00:14:31
Putin and Medvedev now call the Great00:14:33
Patriotic Holy War are their00:14:36
words, and Putin and Medvedev and Kirenko have already00:14:38
begun to use the word war00:14:41
directly, and the propagandists00:14:43
Solovyov00:14:44
Simonyan Skabeev and so on are not yet00:14:48
attracted to them because of discredit00:14:50
they are supposed to say this, but ordinary00:14:52
Russians who spoke say the word00:14:54
war, they can be decided, which means00:14:57
discredit under Article 20.3.3 from 30 to00:15:01
50 thousand rubles, or for repeated00:15:03
discredit or for fakes there are 5-7 and00:15:07
even 10 years of imprisonment, so for00:15:09
this the Greatest Sacred00:15:11
Domestic Desatonization for the year 23, the00:15:15
authorities are having big problems with the00:15:16
budget because formally the00:15:19
deficit is 2 trillion 900 billion rubles, but I am00:15:23
convinced I do not see any other00:15:25
prerequisites and reasons why they should00:15:27
meet this figure and why there will be no00:15:29
deficit in around 6-7 trillion rubles, we00:15:33
discussed this figure literally in the last00:15:35
stream with Dmitry Potapenko and Dima was a00:15:37
great optimist, he said that the hole00:15:39
would be four trillion, now he is already00:15:42
closer to my estimate of six seven00:15:44
trillion real facts Yes, maybe00:15:46
even more And most importantly the problem is00:15:48
that this is a00:15:49
sharp drop and the zeroing out of that very00:15:53
Sacred cash cow that they brought to00:15:55
the power of Daniel, first of all, of course,00:15:58
including, more precisely, the population of business,00:16:00
raising all these retirement ages and00:16:02
raising taxes, VAT, and therefore increasing00:16:06
utility bills, excise taxes,00:16:08
gasoline and diesel prices introduced there fees for00:16:11
recycling from garbage without real00:16:13
separate collection of garbage, you have real00:16:15
recycling, recycling, and so on and so00:16:18
on, all the mechanisms and of course00:16:20
it gives00:16:22
gas the irreplaceable raw materials00:16:25
that fed now it turns out that00:16:28
next year a00:16:29
big problem arises here, a big Risk zone, that00:16:32
is,00:16:33
the budget is the same based on the models that00:16:36
22 years out of 70 dollars per barrel of oil And00:16:42
the assumption was that a barrel of oil00:16:44
would be approximately 70 72 dollars per barrel,00:16:46
which means the ruble to dollar exchange rate there would be 66700:16:49
rubles per dollar plus minus So in00:16:52
general this suited them for 23 years00:16:55
the situation with a unique Changes for in00:16:57
order to make ends meet now and00:16:59
plug the hole in the budget, taking into account00:17:01
growing military expenses and the must in the00:17:03
conditions of rising prices, the need for00:17:05
some kind of minimum payments to the population00:17:07
indexation of other other things, the price00:17:09
should already be more, well, at least 10000:17:11
dollars per Barrel 100 dollars per00:17:13
Barrel so go to a zero deficit within the00:17:16
framework of the status quo within the framework of that00:17:18
military-political situation of those00:17:20
expenses for the Ministry of Defense of the security forces that00:17:23
exist, but the whole problem is that the expenses00:17:25
for the special operation are growing,00:17:28
there is no reason to think that this will all00:17:32
end in the next 35-6 months00:17:35
or within 23 years there are no00:17:37
breakthroughs at all, not with negative00:17:40
growth rates, the authorities cannot show00:17:42
therefore all this comes into a protracted, long-00:17:44
lasting military-political00:17:46
history with which even now the authorities,00:17:48
in order not to state their00:17:50
fiasco, let’s say they are already calling a holy war00:17:53
completely the West with NATO with Satanists00:17:58
with Europe from America, which is united00:18:01
by service, means00:18:03
this Mammon means Iblis and I don’t00:18:09
know who there means Mephistopheles for everyone00:18:11
else. Yes, and now it turns out00:18:14
that we need to get this money somewhere to00:18:17
fill this hole in the budget and uh00:18:20
oil today Russian is trading on00:18:22
average at a price of approximately00:18:24
45-46 dollars per barrel, these are00:18:27
official data from the Ministry of Finance00:18:28
and this means that these figures from January 1 to January 15-16 are00:18:34
46.5 dollars per barrel at the end of00:18:36
last year, the average price was about00:18:39
56-57 dollars per barrel in the fall of approximately00:18:43
65- 70 dollars and the latest deals are00:18:46
already going on at 43 dollars per barrel,00:18:48
and this is the average price which00:18:50
includes several varieties at once,00:18:52
including its own Sokol Far Eastern variety with00:18:55
one hundred which goes to China, where the price tag is higher00:18:58
there, it is not traded at 55-60 dollars per00:19:01
barrel but the main volume of supply of00:19:02
Russian oil is the supply of a mixture of00:19:04
precisely durals, which means heavier,00:19:08
dirtier, higher sulfur oil,00:19:10
which went primarily through00:19:12
oil pipelines to Europe and by sea00:19:14
through the00:19:15
northern ports through the Baltic through the00:19:18
Black Sea. The European region00:19:22
here the situation is very heavy oil has already00:19:25
fallen in price below 37 -38 dollars per00:19:28
barrel, that is, the shipment of oil from the ports of00:19:30
Primorsky and to services in the Leningrad00:19:33
region, and the oil goes at a price below 3700:19:35
dollars per barrel. And this is already a00:19:36
really critical value. This is00:19:39
approximately00:19:41
35-40% lower than, respectively, 30%00:19:44
lower than the ceiling in general is the notorious 6000:19:47
dollars per barrel and this is two times00:19:49
lower than the average price on the world00:19:51
oil market, and where not it costs 83-85 dollars00:19:54
per barrel, it turns out that now the authorities,00:19:57
in order to remain within the framework of the previous00:19:58
model, need not just put the00:20:01
population behind a stabbing cage wire00:20:04
Means for dry rations and just keep him00:20:06
hungry, as well as put the economy on dry00:20:09
shares, industry small00:20:11
business, tighten the belts as much as possible, a00:20:13
fiscal noose on the necks of those who, by00:20:16
some miracle, survived and are engaged in00:20:18
economic entrepreneurial00:20:19
activity or are somehow trying to00:20:20
make ends meet for the population but it is00:20:22
certainly necessary to decide something with the00:20:24
ruble. Therefore,00:20:26
the fact that at the end of December at the end of 2200:20:29
we saw the devaluation of the ruble, its00:20:32
weakening from 61 to 73 75 rubles per dollar00:20:36
and to 79 rubles per euro. This was exactly the00:20:39
scenario that we discussed with you back in the00:20:42
summer in the fall of 22 at the end of the year in00:20:46
order to at least somehow try to00:20:48
reduce the budget deficit In order to00:20:50
somehow have money to throw00:20:53
blood from the Master's table, uh, that means to the00:20:56
poorest population, which, even according to00:20:58
official data, became impoverished last00:21:00
year by uh almost two percent of00:21:03
real disposable incomes have fallen so00:21:06
real Of course, more and not by several times,00:21:08
but on the order of at least 15-20 percent,00:21:10
someone’s standard of living has fallen even more,00:21:11
no increase in nominal wages,00:21:14
nominal incomes of the population by00:21:16
12-13%, as Rustat writes to us, of course,00:21:19
no who was not there except maybe00:21:20
Putin himself Medvedev Mishustin the00:21:23
State Duma government of the enraged00:21:25
printer of the Federation Council of United Russia members00:21:26
who then sucked while drinking beer in00:21:30
Mexico snacked on this matter with shrimp00:21:31
deputies from United Russia or their wives from00:21:34
United Russia send ardent greetings and00:21:36
wishes for good health a lot of money00:21:38
to the Russians ordinary people,00:21:40
of course, don’t have that kind of money. So in order for there to be00:21:43
this money for, uh, the production of00:21:45
weapons, at least in some form of00:21:49
missile shells, that means there are infantry fighting vehicle tanks, that means there’s00:21:53
everything you want, in order for it00:21:56
all to function, the authorities will have to00:21:58
weaken They started doing this in the ruble in00:22:00
2022 in December, moving the exchange rate00:22:03
by about 25-30 percent, then there was00:22:05
some rollback, the temporary Central Bank00:22:08
blamed everything on the fact that there were large speculators.00:22:10
Although some speculators could only be00:22:11
Sberbank VTB Gazprombank Alfa Bank, the00:22:14
largest private or00:22:16
state-owned banks there -oligogical banks00:22:18
by the state, a monopolitical structure00:22:20
of the so-called Yes, so we said that there00:22:23
were strong fluctuations in00:22:26
oil price quotes for GAZ, a00:22:27
reduction in inches of production, gas supplies00:22:30
on the foreign oil market fell in exports to00:22:32
foreign exchange earnings. We will also provide a00:22:34
lot of talk about what it means on average over00:22:37
the year, gas production fell by 23%00:22:40
Gazprom by 35% by 40% gas shipments from00:22:44
strange far abroad countries in recent00:22:46
months the drop is generally dramatic there is a00:22:48
more than five-fold drop in00:22:50
gas shipments to the European Union the largest00:22:53
gas region in Russia buy buyer the00:22:55
fattest richest most00:22:57
premium a profitable region where00:23:00
Russia sold out of 188 billion00:23:03
cubic meters of gas per year, over 157 billion, that00:23:06
is, almost 80 percent of our00:23:07
gas supplies then went abroad to the00:23:10
European Union, right now00:23:12
only minimal00:23:15
supplies are supplied there through one branch of the Turkish00:23:16
stream, 16 billion uh means00:23:19
throughput cubic meters of gas per00:23:22
year and, accordingly, there, partially through a00:23:25
gas pipe through Ukraine, then there it00:23:28
works approximately, well, roughly speaking,00:23:31
there it is 1/4 even maybe 1/500:23:33
less than 20-3 million cubic meters of gas00:23:36
million meters of gas per day So it’s00:23:40
no longer 45 million and even there these are not the volumes00:23:43
that should have been declared. In00:23:45
other words, the authorities had to00:23:48
dismantle the ruble now in order to somehow make00:23:50
ends meet. To balance00:23:51
the budget in order to have the resources00:23:55
to keep the economy afloat00:23:57
or oil at $100 per barrel. A with00:24:00
taking into account the fact that an embargo on oil was also introduced00:24:02
from December 5, 22, from February 5,00:24:06
an embargo was introduced on the supply of00:24:07
petroleum products, including aviation00:24:10
kerosene, diesel fuel, on which00:24:12
Russia made good money,00:24:15
heating oil, which went to the European00:24:18
market in the boiler room, on which a00:24:20
large number were focused number of00:24:21
dozens of Russian old oil refineries But that00:24:25
means in this situation It means you00:24:28
will have to00:24:30
balance the budget with oil at00:24:32
approximately $115,120 per Barrel,00:24:36
taking into account this park, the pressure on00:24:37
oil, the reduction in production volumes of supplies of00:24:39
oil and petroleum products gas to the00:24:42
European region means this is not there00:24:45
therefore at the price oil 40 dollars 3700:24:48
dollars per barrel on average Russian00:24:51
oil at 45 dollars it turns out that to00:24:53
balance the Russian budget you00:24:55
need an exchange rate of not even 80 or even 9000:24:58
And approximately 110 rubles per dollar00:25:01
plus or minus in this range so that a barrel of00:25:04
oil does not even cost 4500 rubles per00:25:07
Barrel And at least 5500-6000 rubles per00:25:10
barrel of the Russian oil mixture on00:25:12
average for all Russian00:25:14
exported mixtures, so00:25:16
that there were banal candy wrappers, there was cut00:25:20
paper in order to rebel, so that there00:25:23
were no hungry points, in order to reduce the00:25:25
budget with a zero deficit, it is clear that00:25:28
this course they exporters dream they00:25:30
dream Miller Rotenberg Kovalchuk00:25:33
Deripaska Lisin owners of gold00:25:36
oil and gas there are risks00:25:38
fertilizer manufacturer all these glasses there in Russia whatever you00:25:41
want00:25:43
LUKOIL Transneft and the budget and the00:25:46
state also want a weaker00:25:48
ruble but do not understand that it is impossible to00:25:49
establish it Otherwise, if you try to00:25:52
make it right away in the region there, 100 rubles per00:25:54
dollar will happen. There will simply be an explosion00:25:57
of social protest, there will be a sharp00:25:59
radicalization of negativity in society00:26:02
towards the authorities, there will be a jump in prices, there00:26:04
will be inflation, even officially00:26:07
published, not 12 percent, but 25 to 30 is00:26:09
actually much more. This could00:26:11
cause serious political unrest in the00:26:14
authorities, too. it understands therefore it is clear00:26:16
that as they say dads, that you will00:26:20
drink less, your salary has become less00:26:21
and prices have increased, no Son, you will eat00:26:23
less and there will be less clothes to buy and00:26:26
you will have fewer toys and00:26:27
you will go out less to play00:26:29
with your friends, so you need to understand00:26:31
that they will tighten the screws, they will of course00:26:34
reduce spending on the economy on the00:26:36
social sphere, which00:26:38
is already under colossal pressure,00:26:41
they have been deteriorating in recent decades00:26:43
because Well, it is logical that the poorer the lack of00:26:46
education the stupider00:26:48
the zombie than And with an outstretched00:26:50
hand the population stands the topic of others00:26:52
to manage this00:26:53
the category of poverty in Russia is00:26:56
a category managed by the feudal lord00:26:58
for the ruling regime, it is00:27:00
more profitable for them for the people to be Absolutely00:27:03
without a situation, live in devastation, have not seen00:27:07
how the neighbors on the perimeter live there,00:27:09
much less China there, not Turkey, not00:27:11
Poland, not the Czech Republic, Europe not anyone00:27:14
there was no other so that there was a feeling that00:27:17
everywhere beyond the perimeter And complete Anarchy,00:27:20
rampant sodomy, some kind of copulation with00:27:23
turtles, as in the sick fantasy of the00:27:25
practically wet dreams of00:27:27
State Duma deputy Zhuravlev and others like them, it’s00:27:30
easier to manage such a society, it’s easier to00:27:32
retain power and guarantee one’s00:27:34
personal physiological safety so as00:27:36
not to go to the people's court or to the00:27:38
tribunal and retain their power by passing00:27:40
it on by inheritance son there to children00:27:42
daughters son Whoever wants it, it’s00:27:46
another matter that the system00:27:49
has degraded so much that it is in a00:27:51
state of00:27:52
deep decay in the system that this is not00:27:54
realizable comments, as I00:27:56
understand it, they will begin here to understand, therefore, all00:27:58
these processes of radicalization of sledgehammers00:28:00
means a free hand for the handsome man with his00:28:04
Wagner sledgehammers and with these means00:28:07
extrajudicial reprisals there and frankly00:28:10
such the formation of an independent culture00:28:13
Yes, with appeals Let's give it to those who00:28:15
yesterday were still imprisoned for serious crimes00:28:17
there for murder, rape there means00:28:20
trafficking prohibited substances00:28:25
caused serious harm to people's health after00:28:29
Let's send senators00:28:31
to power as deputies and let them also00:28:33
teach in schools and institutes get00:28:35
preferential places in universities there like Moscow State University pleshki00:28:39
meme and with them yes such a00:28:41
new new new so-called pseudo00:28:44
Elite is being formed The government is trying to show00:28:46
that we are not yet the worst option00:28:48
and it is better for you to interact with us than00:28:50
what may be the place, well,00:28:52
returning to the economy, we understand that00:28:54
unfortunately the population will live worse and the00:28:58
ruble will gradually devalue.00:29:00
I think that a gradual movement of 73 7500:29:03
rubles for a dollar these are the immediate goals of the00:29:04
nearest ones, roughly speaking, a couple of months00:29:09
by the summer, it is possible to pay for 80 rubles per00:29:13
dollar, but in general, in this direction,00:29:15
depending on how strictly the00:29:16
sanctions will work, how much the00:29:17
control mechanisms for00:29:20
insurance will work, behind the ceilings on00:29:23
oil, petroleum products00:29:24
especially for such as diesel fuel00:29:26
and top-grade fuel oil, for which Russia00:29:28
earned the most money, diesel00:29:30
was traded higher than oil, fuel oil is cheaper than oil for00:29:33
both of them, there are two different00:29:36
ceilings for these types of00:29:39
oil products, which are more00:29:41
premium and than oil, or, on the contrary,00:29:43
cheaper. That's accordingly this is the whole00:29:46
story will lead to the fact that it will increase00:29:47
taxes and levies from the population, we already see00:29:50
that getting into the pockets of the deep people is00:29:52
sacred, this is the main spiritual bond of00:29:54
power. It directly says that we will00:29:56
now have to chip in on the so-called00:29:58
nationwide sacred de-santanization,00:30:00
hyphen war, and this is right from the position of all the00:30:03
chants that everyone should be united and,00:30:05
accordingly, this is a good reason to00:30:06
put your hand deeper in your pocket, and00:30:09
the people who will be told on TV00:30:11
about00:30:12
Accordingly, either this way or immediately,00:30:15
or like martyrs to heaven, or00:30:17
accordingly, you are traitors to us,00:30:19
gas and electricity tariffs have already been increased00:30:22
for utility bills back in December 22,00:30:25
unscheduled for the second time in a year, on00:30:27
average, electricity tariffs increased by 9-15 percent,00:30:30
especially for00:30:32
two-phase meters by 25-40 percent,00:30:35
which means that excise taxes have been increased since January,00:30:38
including on petroleum products gasoline diesel00:30:41
aviation kerosene, this is a jump prices,00:30:43
jumps in the cost of transportation00:30:45
costs, the rise in price of all goods on00:30:47
store shelves is an increase in inflation00:30:50
throughout the promotion, here are inflationary spirals00:30:51
throughout the economy, plus it has now00:30:54
become known that from February 1,00:30:58
23, it will be necessary to chip in to support the00:31:01
friends of the billionaires of the ruling power,00:31:03
the Rotenbergs and Chemezovs, who are00:31:07
The main beneficiaries Benefit00:31:09
from the introduction of the00:31:10
Plato system are the so-called fees for travel00:31:13
on Federal highways; they were immediately increased00:31:15
by00:31:16
30 kopecks, almost 12 percent, which00:31:19
results in an increase And from two and a00:31:22
half rubles to two rubles 8400:31:24
kopecks per kilometer of travel on00:31:27
Federal highways, this will also hit00:31:30
the economy will pay for this, you and I,00:31:32
as citizens of Russia, because this00:31:35
will cause an increase in the cost of00:31:36
transport costs and invoices, a00:31:38
total of 763 thousand cargo carriers00:31:41
are in this system Plato, at the00:31:43
moment there are more than one00:31:46
million 700 thousand trucks weighing00:31:48
more than 12 tons and that’s all that’s it.00:31:52
feeding00:31:54
bureaucracy nomenklatura00:31:56
with the power of big business oligarchs00:31:59
who pay flesh blood blood theirs00:32:03
is an internal shadow such a black00:32:05
pocket black cash register this is all we00:32:07
will chip in and under the guise of a crisis00:32:09
It is clear that before the budget to steal00:32:11
raise taxes raise excise taxes raise the00:32:13
retirement age again and not00:32:16
pay stolen confiscated00:32:18
frozen pension savings or00:32:20
stolen Soviet deposits In the00:32:23
ninety-first year, which even00:32:24
seconds of 95 should have already begun to be00:32:27
paid, but every year the United Russia00:32:29
ruling power extends the moratorium, this is00:32:31
all I will only gain momentum in00:32:33
full color to stand up and, accordingly,00:32:35
those who will criticize destructive00:32:37
policies and foreign courses foreign00:32:39
policy antisocial internal reforms00:32:41
they will of course00:32:43
be called enemies of the people00:32:44
collaborators of the CIA I don’t know there Pechenegs00:32:48
Crushers adherents of the Polovtsians Lenin who was00:32:51
given the year on the list with a proposal to also00:32:53
confiscate their property this00:32:55
will also be discussed now I think00:32:57
we will come to this and the fact that now the cliché00:33:00
has changed his position, first spoke out00:33:01
against Medvedev’s position, even said that00:33:03
those who violate the Constitution should00:33:05
leave the government, then he00:33:07
changed his mind and said that yes, there is a need for00:33:10
amendments to the legislation and, together with00:33:12
Kirill Kabanov, from these00:33:13
corruption committees he will now00:33:15
bring in amendments to the article on00:33:17
extremism on discrediting fakes00:33:19
and one of the measures is punishment for those who insulted00:33:22
the authorities and criticizes them, and there will be00:33:25
confiscation of property, that is, there is00:33:27
an apartment, a garage, a dacha, and I don’t know, there’s a00:33:29
car to be taken away, hit in the pocket00:33:32
so that people, God forbid, don’t undress their mouth too much,00:33:34
don’t criticize not only is there00:33:36
partial, not partial mobilization, and00:33:39
that means00:33:41
military-political breakthroughs with00:33:43
negative signs that are going on in00:33:45
all directions Yes, and accordingly they00:33:46
did not criticize the economic course; poverty,00:33:49
more than 17 million 200 thousand people are00:33:51
officially below the poverty line. This is only00:33:54
officially 17 million Russians are poor00:33:56
today, yes these are00:33:58
two populations of the Republic of Belarus to make00:34:01
it clear How many practically the00:34:03
population of Kazakhstan lives inside Russia00:34:04
who are just looking for you for uh 9 years the00:34:08
real disposable incomes of00:34:09
the population have been falling which means 80% of Russians are saving on00:34:12
food and essential goods00:34:14
and now the authorities are saying that00:34:16
everything is fine everything is great there, there00:34:22
will be no nationalization, there will be no00:34:24
frontal May decrees, an increase in00:34:26
income by one and a half times, 25 million00:34:29
highly productive jobs, there00:34:31
will be no progressive00:34:33
scale of income tax on the super-rich,00:34:35
taxes on the payment of huge dividends00:34:37
on super-profits, super-income, this will all00:34:40
remain with our Friends, with our00:34:42
this cooperative of ours water resources of the00:34:44
lake are everything for the ruling elite But for00:34:47
the population, accordingly, do00:34:49
n’t rock the boat too much,00:34:51
don’t show off too much, and please, that00:34:53
means filter your As they say,00:34:56
filter the market What are you saying because the00:34:58
authorities right now are saying on everything that00:35:01
400 criminal cases under articles of fake00:35:03
discredit00:35:05
207.300:35:07
280.300 criminal cases fakes00:35:10
discrediting, think again if there are00:35:12
six thousand administrative cases for00:35:14
discrediting under00:35:16
Article 20.3.3 of the Code of00:35:19
Administrative Offences, that is,00:35:21
this is censorship, this is the fight against attacks, this is an00:35:25
attempt to tame people to a leash in00:35:28
their cage to life behind barbed00:35:31
wire such a Stim of a concentration camp00:35:32
economy and total number complete without00:35:34
rules of course This is all good00:35:36
news it will all fall apart it is all less00:35:38
capable it is doomed to complete00:35:40
collapse because the system is absolutely00:35:41
insane completely out of control and inside00:35:44
it can already be seen cracking under tension00:35:46
all these stories there with Prigogine with00:35:50
scandals with Beglov with threats00:35:52
of sledgehammering that even the00:35:54
administration was addressed. This means that the00:35:57
tsar’s creators were directly alarmed, he was00:36:00
already there calling for reprisals,00:36:03
this is all actually just00:36:05
beginning and we understand that the00:36:09
Russian economy is in the deepest crisis, the00:36:11
entire management system, the entire00:36:14
society and to Unfortunately, this will all00:36:17
just be an effort in 23, in general,00:36:18
friends, this was such a blitz analysis of00:36:21
the situation, a forecast for the Russian ruble at00:36:24
20 dollars per euro00:36:26
with what the00:36:28
Russian government needs today and in order to somehow00:36:30
make ends meet in the budget system.00:36:32
Yes, of course they understandable, they will not00:36:34
make an exchange rate there right away, 115,120 rubles and00:36:37
80,85 and a deficit is quite enough.00:36:39
About 4 trillion plus they will00:36:42
print rubles, the issue will go to00:36:44
print rubles, buying up government debt00:36:46
on the balance sheet of the Central Bank of Russia,00:36:48
buying government bonds. This is the00:36:51
monetization of government00:36:54
debt that will lie in The public00:36:57
debt is to increase the obvious, yes.00:36:58
So I think that by no less than 400:37:02
trillion next year in this00:37:04
twenty-third year. But,00:37:06
accordingly, a powerful blow to00:37:08
business on the population in terms of00:37:10
effective demand in terms of living standards00:37:12
and even more degradation means the00:37:16
structure of the economy is still more00:37:18
organization and of course we understand that,00:37:20
apparently, there is a00:37:22
powerful wave of presentation of rakes somewhere, with00:37:25
different estimates, this will happen in the00:37:28
month of February, if not February, then00:37:30
apparently somewhere in April, because00:37:32
apparently something is planned for February or April00:37:35
called the 2nd attempt and a00:37:38
campaign either to Chernigov or to the sums00:37:40
either to Kiev or there to Kharkov or00:37:43
to Zaporozhye So, accordingly, according to00:37:45
various forecasts, taking into account the fact that the hustle00:37:48
directly stated the need to increase the00:37:49
number of armed forces by 300 thousand00:37:52
people to one and a half millions And those who are00:37:54
under arms are precisely the armed00:37:56
forces. Yes, the Ministry of Defense, not counting the00:37:58
600 thousand civilians there,00:38:00
those who are there, frontal00:38:02
supply, doctors, clinics there and everything00:38:04
else. The training part, this means00:38:07
that00:38:08
most likely they will undergo this in a more00:38:10
hidden form without publicity. without the announcement00:38:12
of a general people's mobilization with it00:38:16
Apparently the database is being merged being00:38:18
updated are required00:38:21
digital format is being merged with databases00:38:24
border services customs service of00:38:27
public services Ministry of Internal Affairs tax officers Well, in principle,00:38:30
this system does not have to cover the border,00:38:32
it will be blocked exactly the address on in00:38:34
relation to men there conscription age00:38:36
there is up to 30 years old, for example, there is either up to 4000:38:37
years old conditionally or according to the databases according to the lists of those00:38:40
who are not considered necessary to00:38:42
pick up and round up. Yes, in this vein,00:38:47
the authorities may well go ahead and act more carefully in this regard, I00:38:49
understand that they already understand what is necessary - and00:38:51
so as not to cause panic again and the growth of00:38:54
protest relations of sentiment and00:38:56
uncomfortable questions, and where are the 300,00000:38:58
who have already been handed a summons,00:39:00
so as they say, be that as it may,00:39:04
but they also learn from their mistakes00:39:05
Little by little, so most likely all this00:39:08
will take place more hidden form and00:39:09
there with the police going from house to00:39:13
apartment with the involvement of00:39:15
employers there at the place of work, presentations and00:39:18
so on, this, of course, will also be an00:39:21
even greater blow to the economy. The flight of both00:39:23
brains and capital from Russia means more than00:39:26
35 billion dollars in just 2200:39:29
transferred from Russian banks in00:39:31
foreign currency to foreign currency00:39:33
abroad, not abroad, now there are more00:39:35
large deposits than in Russia, this amount00:39:37
there has already become equal, and even abroad00:39:39
Russia holds more foreign currency, they simply00:39:41
brought Kazakhstan to Armenia to Georgia00:39:43
there to Turkey anywhere, here we are 250,26000:39:46
billion dollars for capital, big00:39:49
business, exporters of raw materials, fertilizers,00:39:51
oil, gas, metals, officials see with00:39:53
them, it means that everything is also growing, the money00:39:55
that was withdrawn remained for00:39:57
export in the accounts of exporters abroad, they00:39:59
were allowed to leave money there in00:40:02
countries with which they seem to be formally00:40:04
speaking on TV that there is some kind of00:40:07
Holy War going on, dystonization,00:40:09
plus the purchase of luxury real estate,00:40:13
the purchase of cryptocurrencies, the purchase of00:40:16
gold, the purchase of everything else. For00:40:18
example, buying up a crazy buying up of00:40:21
real estate in Turkey in one year, the00:40:23
twenty-second year, we bought more, we follow the00:40:25
previous six years and the first place in00:40:27
buying real estate in the Emirates in00:40:29
Dubai is not only money from the middle00:40:31
class or small medium-sized businesses,00:40:33
including money parked there by00:40:35
Russian officials by big businesses00:40:37
who are now scattering the money all over the00:40:39
world somewhere else while it could be00:40:42
done, including on ointments in Hong Kong00:40:43
Singapore in China00:40:45
in Turkey there in the Emirates in the Middle00:40:48
East and further down the list, in general, friends,00:40:50
this is such a preliminary analysis that it00:40:53
was clear what was happening to the budget00:40:55
system. What is the game, what is the scale of00:40:57
this fool, it is clear that the economy will00:40:59
fall there officially, 3.5 percent is00:41:01
actually more and effective demand00:41:03
and the standard of living of the population and 23 will be00:41:06
more dangerous more stringent more00:41:08
cruel for the majority of Russians, which means the00:41:12
good news is that all this00:41:16
cannot last long because it’s all00:41:18
too much It’s already becoming irresponsible too00:41:19
cartoonishly too strained00:41:22
absolutely00:41:24
bipolar We’re just so bipolar00:41:27
you know, it smells at full blast, yes, that00:41:29
is, the degrees of insanity of schizophrenia are off the00:41:33
charts, so you need to understand00:41:35
that the situation is only going to00:41:37
gain momentum now, this crisis,00:41:40
oil gas, production volumes, supplies00:41:42
will be reduced if there was an increase in oil00:41:45
by 2%, the producer last year in00:41:47
exports by 7 % of physical expression,00:41:49
now on the contrary, these are the volumes00:41:51
that were extra purchased in October00:41:52
before the sanctions of the Peredombarga, now,00:41:54
on the contrary, there is a sharp drop there to00:41:56
30-40%, which was at the beginning of 22,00:42:01
and this will all lead to the00:42:03
exploitation of the population, tightening the screws00:42:05
and attempt you do not agree Those whose00:42:09
standard of living will fall even more will00:42:10
only increase but friends we will break00:42:12
through there is no other option so00:42:16
we will go out on air ourselves to discuss00:42:18
the situation and we must understand that the00:42:20
historical truth is on ours00:42:24
subscribe to the channel like it00:42:25
Write a comment Help spread this video00:42:28
your support, this is00:42:29
incredibly important This helps a lot for those who are00:42:33
ready to support the channel00:42:34
materially or financially,00:42:37
the link is indicated How to help bank card number00:42:39
everything else If you wish, if00:42:41
possible, I will be grateful to you,00:42:43
we are waiting for new broadcasts of broadcasts00:42:46
with Nikolai Bondarenko from Moscow00:42:48
Duma deputy Evgeniy Stupin and with Dmitry00:42:50
Potapenko and with our other interesting00:42:52
speakers, I hug you all, I00:42:54
love you again, 2023. No00:42:57
matter how difficult this year is00:43:00
and no matter what challenges it00:43:02
poses to us, we will definitely00:43:04
overcome it with you, we will win, and00:43:07
as they say, everything friends will be fineDescription:
Денег на СВО нет? «Великую отечественную священную народную десатанизацию Запада» оплатит и без того обнищавший и вымирающий рекордными темпами народ? За чей счёт «вставание с колен» экономики трубы? Доить население - системообращующая «духовная скрепа» режима. Опустошать карманы затянувшим пояса россиянам - строго по расписанию! Никакая «война с коллективным Западом» не повод прекращать загонять народ в нищету, уничтожать («оптимизировать») соцсферу и «пилить» бюджет! С 1 февраля власти повысили тариф в системе «Платон» за проезд по федеральным трассам более чем на 11% (на 30 копеек) - с 2,54 до 2,84 руб за километр! Кормить друзей-олигархов «бункера» (Ротенбергов и Чемезова), повышая тариф в системе «Платон» - святое!
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