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Russian
00:00:12
[music]00:00:16
friends I welcome you to our broadcast And00:00:19
today we have on Sky our friend, the famous00:00:22
economist00:00:24
politician Dmitry Valerievich Potapenko Dim00:00:27
Well, I’m glad to see you on our stream,00:00:30
we are resuming our recordings, but now00:00:32
I have also received a new mark from the00:00:35
most wonderful honest Russian00:00:37
authorities I have a stigma on the Agent, either the Agent of the00:00:40
Pechenegs or the Polovtsians in general News,00:00:43
the closer the elections are to the next year, the more actively00:00:45
this list is expanding to 700 people; it00:00:47
contains journalists, politicians,00:00:49
economists, bloggers, anyone Well, in00:00:51
general, I welcome you to new status00:00:54
Mutually good good evening and00:00:57
how kind he can be00:00:58
Yes, whatever one may say,00:01:02
Dim Well then, let’s start with the00:01:06
hottest topic of today, this is,00:01:09
of course, a meeting of the board of directors of the00:01:12
Central Bank of Russia, in principle,00:01:14
what you and I voiced in our00:01:16
streams what you and I00:01:18
voiced in the public00:01:20
news service on other platforms, by and00:01:22
large, the plan was implemented. The Central Bank of00:01:24
Russia today decided to burn out the remnants of the00:01:27
investment economy, jobs at the standard of00:01:30
living, which means looking for some kind of business00:01:33
activity on the palm tree, the key rate has been00:01:35
raised for the fourth time in a row since July.00:01:38
13 to 15% at once by 200 basis00:01:42
points, most analysts in the market00:01:45
predicted an increase to 14% You and I00:01:47
said that there is a high probability of an00:01:49
increase to 15% and another increase in00:01:52
mid-December, possibly up to 17% per annum,00:01:56
so that then somewhere in February00:01:58
gradually reduce it closer to the elections in00:02:00
March of twenty-four,00:02:03
which means how the market reacted, the00:02:05
Russian ruble at first decided00:02:07
to demonstrate some kind of local00:02:09
strengthening from00:02:10
93.5 to 92.5 rubles, but then it00:02:14
rolled back just as successfully; speculators did not00:02:16
believe that the key rate was increasing00:02:18
somehow causes the devaluation of the ruble and the00:02:21
acceleration of inflation, which is already officially00:02:23
6.5 6.6 about 20-25 percent in reality00:02:26
And this is all happening, devaluation is00:02:29
also happening against the backdrop of00:02:32
rising prices and the ruble is becoming cheaper, and00:02:35
accordingly, how would you comment on this matter,00:02:37
that is, the nalina went on a00:02:40
more stringent scenario and, in00:02:42
fact, decided to tighten the screws more tightly00:02:44
today. We decided to increase the00:02:47
key rate to 15%00:02:50
per annum. The tightening of monetary00:02:53
policy is already being translated into the economy,00:02:56
we see this in the growing attractiveness00:02:58
of savings and a slight cooling in00:03:01
lending. The system is a steady00:03:03
expansion of demand that is increasingly exceeding00:03:05
possibilities increasing supply of00:03:07
goods and services, as a result, prices are growing00:03:10
faster than we expected; an additional pro-00:03:13
inflation factor. On the forecast00:03:15
horizon, there is an easing of fiscal00:03:18
policy; therefore, greater00:03:20
rigidity of monetary00:03:22
policy is required. Our policy will ensure a more00:03:25
balanced credit growth,00:03:27
corresponding to the return of inflation,00:03:29
targets near 4% next year.00:03:33
Well our viewers probably remember that00:03:36
when the Central Bank came out for the first time on the fifteenth, I00:03:38
think on June 15, and raised the00:03:40
rate by 1%, I said that it would have been00:03:44
normal to00:03:46
do this, and then the rate was raised a00:03:48
second time on the twenty-first, I00:03:50
said that it was necessary to raise the rate00:03:52
then to indicate on the market at 0.5 on00:03:55
the fifteenth and then make it there00:03:57
15.5 17.500:04:00
after all, cats cut their tails in parts.00:04:04
Why was I in favor of a sharper increase? Not00:04:07
because I am so wealthy; the reason is very00:04:10
prosaic here it is necessary to divide several00:04:12
markets into which the key rate of00:04:15
physicists and lawyers influences and when on00:04:18
individuals, in fact, what00:04:20
the Central Bank is trying to do there, in addition to the IC of the Armed Forces, the00:04:22
rest is about trying to cool interest in00:04:25
individuals, are you lying, because of00:04:30
course, in this market, in00:04:33
general, our fellow citizens are00:04:35
already overleveraged gone for I think 31 trillion And this is a00:04:38
big, big challenge Because at any00:04:40
moment and the authorities in general00:04:43
are preparing for this, that there will be a00:04:45
decrease in real disposable income,00:04:48
it’s not so great in general. But in00:04:51
this case, accordingly, here’s the00:04:53
key for physicists for physicists stavkin im00:04:58
darda Ricks always sit on revolving00:05:01
loans and understanding, for example, that the rate00:05:04
was raised sharply so that00:05:07
legal entities would do it, of course, there00:05:09
was still some kind of badabum in the market Because00:05:13
there are short-term loans there, but00:05:16
understanding that there is, for example, a00:05:19
cooling period of the same consumer00:05:21
market Well about 4 quieter months,00:05:24
legal entities would simply postpone00:05:26
revolving lending until a00:05:28
later date00:05:30
Inna progra and Ricky would have managed Although00:05:33
many would have suffered It would have been a00:05:37
howl respectively in the swamps only on the00:05:40
road now when of course the analysts For the00:05:43
most part were waiting for about the rise there was00:05:47
one more thing left meeting before the New00:05:49
Year, let's say00:05:52
[music]00:05:54
so in00:05:58
Inya then play here the question is that00:06:02
lending then it has the ability The00:06:04
Central Bank can regulate by00:06:06
completely different methods this is not00:06:07
necessary The key rate for this there are00:06:09
reservation norms,00:06:11
respectively,00:06:13
there are certain decrees or00:06:17
instructions in side of the online bank and therefore00:06:20
here it would be possible to get by with something00:06:22
else, but they went like this, it’s possible that it’s00:06:25
possible, therefore here Of course now00:06:30
with I understand that there will also be work with00:06:34
banks, not only just sharply00:06:36
raise here. The key issue is precisely the00:06:38
Central Bank very will try very hard00:06:41
Well, to carry out these half-measures00:06:44
Although I emphasize that, by and large, it00:06:46
was not necessary to place a bet, but today there is now a00:06:49
rise in the rate and, in fact, the market00:06:51
and it showed it was pointless, that00:06:53
is, it was necessary to include other methods and00:06:57
why, for example, just yesterday I00:06:58
had there are traditional meetings00:07:01
Thursday gatherings when Ian and I discussed with00:07:04
March I discussed a very00:07:06
simple subject that he said about the fact that the rate00:07:08
He does not see a rise And I said that00:07:10
the rate will be raised but not because of00:07:13
necessity But because there are00:07:16
administrative As they say Here are the00:07:18
relationships between the various branches00:07:21
and the key factor is that the00:07:24
Central Bank cannot come out now in the00:07:27
current situation and say that00:07:29
the rate will remain at the same level, it will remain00:07:31
zero, it would have been pecked at. And since it00:07:34
still needs to raise the BC rate,00:07:36
they decided how to play around with 2%, I emphasize00:07:39
decision In my opinion Well, it was00:07:44
several months late and the market was very inefficient,00:07:47
in my opinion, this has already00:07:49
shown everything. So, here it must be said that00:07:52
Nalina’s press conference after the00:07:55
key increase became a special focus on00:07:58
acro tightening of monetary policy00:08:00
for a long time. What about the next month and00:08:04
next year? the rate will be exactly00:08:06
at an increased level, that is,00:08:08
by the end of this year there will be 15-15 1.5% of00:08:11
what was announced. That’s what monetary00:08:14
policy, maintaining the withdrawal of00:08:17
Rublevo’s liquidity from the economy, will be the answer to the00:08:20
record growth of budget expenditures for the00:08:23
next year. We have already told00:08:25
you that Expenses and revenues are increasing00:08:27
there by 8 trillion rubles and there 11 rubles, this is00:08:31
defense military expenditures that are record-breaking, there are00:08:34
about 30% of all budget expenditures, there is another00:08:36
10% for other security forces, that’s a plus,00:08:40
accordingly, that’s the reaction that00:08:43
loans will be expensive, which means that due to inflation00:08:46
the forecast for this year has been increased to 7 75%, it is00:08:50
officially clear00:08:53
that they can draw and 7% can 75 can00:08:57
8 in reality prices are growing many times00:08:59
faster, I think about 30 percent on00:09:01
average for a wide product group for00:09:03
next year, the routine statement is that00:09:05
inflation will slow down to 4 45% Well, in the00:09:08
twenty-fourth year it will be full, in the00:09:10
twenty-fifth year it will be just00:09:11
communism Socialism inflation is00:09:14
4%, which means at the same time Nabiulina00:09:18
said that inflation in the third quarter of00:09:21
this year, cleared of seasonality, has already00:09:25
exceeded00:09:27
12.1, but plus there are also inflation00:09:31
expectations among enterprises including00:09:32
those that form assess the00:09:35
cost structure production costs Here00:09:37
they are the highest in recent years,00:09:40
she stated bioli hinting that this has not00:09:41
happened since the so-called covid I00:09:45
will move on to the arguments of today's00:09:47
decision first inflation prices are growing at a00:09:50
high rate the September acceleration00:09:53
of inflation significantly exceeded our estimates00:09:57
high price pressure persists in00:09:59
October even if we take00:10:02
one-time factors out of the equation, the current price dynamics00:10:05
are at least twice the target00:10:08
inflation, all indicators of sustainable00:10:10
price pressure are above the00:10:13
target, which means Well, of course, it’s funny00:10:16
to watch00:10:18
how, on the one hand, they00:10:20
tell us that they are fighting inflation,00:10:22
on the other hand, that means Vladimir00:10:24
Vladimirovich, also speaking here on00:10:25
TV, said that he was surprised by the increase in prices00:10:28
for chicken by 27% and reprimanded the Minister of00:10:31
Agriculture Patu that how could it be that00:10:33
he was there in the chicken coop with Vorobyov giving00:10:35
an interview and the prices for chicken are rising,00:10:37
chicken meat has become so expensive for poultry meat00:10:40
since the beginning of the year has grown by more than00:10:42
27% and Vladimirovich we are dealing with this00:10:46
topic. Literally last week I personally00:10:49
held a meeting with00:10:51
producers of poultry meat and such00:10:54
goods that are growing by tens of00:10:55
percent, they provide not only chicken, but00:10:57
there are spare parts, medicines, clothes,00:10:59
electronics, which means pesticides, and a00:11:03
lot of goods of this kind Yes, there are00:11:04
cars, oils and so on, but00:11:07
Listen, Dim, fight with an expensive loan for00:11:10
investments And supposedly people are attracted00:11:12
to save money and not spend it when they00:11:14
have nothing else to save there,00:11:16
80% of them just live on wages and salaries00:11:19
like Fighting inflation Well, I tell you I’ll say this is a00:11:21
so-so story When you increase00:11:22
taxes, excise taxes, gasoline prices, diesel00:11:25
prices, gas tariffs by 20% next year.00:11:29
This means that all production costs of00:11:31
electricity increase by 10 utilities00:11:33
10 Well, it won’t just aggravate the collapse of00:11:36
the economy during the crisis. This is VI Well, they’re like me00:11:41
already as I said above In general, the rate could00:11:44
not have been raised, but from an economic point of view,00:11:46
but from an administrative point of view, it00:11:47
was necessary to increase00:11:50
the only conditional plus, which I00:11:52
[music]00:11:57
can do, we will start to go down;00:12:03
or 1700:12:07
s to then I would do as I said earlier00:12:10
0.5 at the beginning and then there were Well there 15 s to00:12:14
17 s to I would put it relatively speaking there00:12:16
in a very short period of time00:12:17
to severely cool the market And after that00:12:22
We would be faster now A00:12:24
long time ago they would have descended into the valley of00:12:27
lower rates, but if these rates00:12:30
are serious And for a long time, which in general seems to be00:12:32
true,00:12:33
that is, well, before the elections, I00:12:35
understand they will reduce it to show00:12:39
effectiveness Well, in general, we00:12:41
still have a very difficult time ahead of us. if00:12:45
this year Commodity inflation, according to our00:12:48
calculations, is 17-25, then next00:12:52
year, by the way, Commodity inflation may be a00:12:54
little less Well, relatively speaking, it’s00:12:56
around 20%, at least for now it’s00:12:58
estimated because it very much depends00:13:01
on how they are now Well,00:13:03
we just found ourselves in that very second ten-day period of00:13:06
October, now November is already on the threshold and,00:13:10
frankly speaking, with the methods they are00:13:12
now trying to reduce the budget deficit00:13:15
Well, I will say these00:13:20
methods are extremely ruinous for the economy, of00:13:23
course, so here this is without question to the question of the00:13:26
official funeral of the economy announcement00:13:29
of the Central Bank, a forecast was given for GDP growth in the00:13:33
current year and for the next 2 years. Well,00:13:36
as you and I expected, the economic00:13:38
breakthrough turned out to be about zero, but in00:13:40
fact there will be a negative decline in00:13:42
most sectors where there is no00:13:45
income from the export of raw materials or government orders,00:13:48
government defense orders or It means that there are some00:13:50
stories there with the00:13:54
State Medical Service planned in the range of00:13:57
22.5, only that is, none00:14:00
there means neither 3 nor 5 nor 10% no00:14:03
economic breakthrough and did not00:14:05
foresee in 24 the Central Bank expects the00:14:08
economy to grow from half a percent to one and a half00:14:11
percent Well, that is, by and large, this is00:14:13
practically a statistical00:14:15
error and this rate is lower than the00:14:17
world average. Well, three times almost00:14:19
four times, and that is, the00:14:21
country’s further lag behind the degradation compared to others and the00:14:23
twenty-fifth year the twenty-sixth year is00:14:25
approximately 1 -2% at best case,00:14:28
by the end of the year, how would you00:14:31
comment on this, because there was so much00:14:33
talk about the May decrees about00:14:34
national projects about parallel imports about the fact00:14:37
that sanctions are to our benefit, that00:14:46
senior non-export income, not all of these00:14:52
promised economic breakthroughs00:14:54
never materialized, and here’s another and tightening of00:14:56
monetary policy, which obviously will not00:14:58
just speed up the investment economy. Well,00:15:01
investments in general will be curtailed00:15:04
because, in general, everything is now, the00:15:06
regulation of the economy has become quite00:15:09
banal, for this purpose00:15:11
financial monitoring sits and regulates00:15:14
certain00:15:15
aspects of the sale or purchase of currency in in00:15:19
general, everything is quite00:15:23
easily removed or installed by the company00:15:27
now, a very tough moment is precisely00:15:29
that investment programs will have to be00:15:32
curtailed because earlier Why did00:15:34
the president sign a decree so00:15:36
that, accordingly, the technologies that are00:15:38
purchased and materials can be00:15:41
brought from abroad if you have00:15:44
foreign exchange you return all the proceeds, then00:15:46
you actually start talking about00:15:50
how and what is managed by what, so00:15:53
financial monitoring becomes key in00:15:55
essence as the chairman of the Board00:15:57
of Directors,00:15:59
then let’s break this topic with00:16:02
Putin’s decree on the sale of foreign currency earnings.00:16:03
And it was signed just00:16:06
two weeks ago, no exact parameters of00:16:08
how much foreign exchange earnings to sell, either00:16:10
50 or00:16:11
90% Apparently, as always, everything is the law for friends, all enemies are the00:16:15
law, and there 23 macro-industry00:16:18
groups were introduced, plus these00:16:21
Currency Regulation Commissioners Yes,00:16:23
who will monitor how much00:16:25
currency can be bought What can be sell00:16:27
Sell export proceeds before imports00:16:29
Here But we see that the ruble does not react, the00:16:31
ruble in principle fluctuated 9394 9500:16:34
rubles so it is traded there and it seems that00:16:37
October 27 is already the peak of the sale of foreign currency00:16:39
earnings exporters for the payment of taxes00:16:42
MET export duties n DSA But00:16:45
still00:16:47
In general, the ruble has not moved even beyond 90 rubles. It00:16:50
is clear that the Ministry of Finance needs a weak00:16:53
ruble in order to print money and,00:16:54
accordingly, it means financing00:16:56
huge budget expenditures, which is not connected with00:16:59
foreign00:17:05
policy. The key rate increase00:17:08
does not strengthen the ruble, nor Putin’s decree00:17:09
strengthens the ruble, what is00:17:11
happening Well, it can’t be00:17:16
nothing therefore00:17:19
should somehow be strengthened here00:17:22
because the sale of currency in this case is00:17:24
done00:17:27
forcibly00:17:29
and nothing more, that is, it is done00:17:32
forcibly with the help of the00:17:37
presidential decree. They don’t need anything else.00:17:40
Will it fall? No, it won’t, they don’t need it00:17:42
they are low, at most they can go to00:17:46
88 Yeah,00:17:48
yeah, well, I’ll tell you this there, but from the point00:17:53
of view of technical analysis, there are several00:17:55
support levels, there is one of them00:17:56
important 9192,00:17:59
if you break through it by consolidation, then in00:18:00
principle you could see a strengthening to00:18:02
82, but I don’t see any prospects at all neither in00:18:05
the economy nor in the budget does this00:18:07
raw material export model have such a00:18:09
course, especially since it is necessary to spend 5.500:18:12
trillion rubles before the end of the year within the00:18:13
budget, having already had a deficit of one and a half, there is00:18:16
1.6 trillion rubles. But your forecast by the00:18:20
end of the year what will happen with the key rate,00:18:22
will we see 161 and what do you think about the00:18:26
ruble exchange rate? Well, let’s say until the elections of00:18:29
the year No, this is too far this is too00:18:31
far the rate they most likely can00:18:34
reach 16 s but even reach 17 s but it all00:18:37
depends on the question Yeah, but at the ruble/00:18:42
dollar exchange rate what is the rate until the end of the year then00:18:44
you see, well, I think that they will00:18:46
hold No, I think that they will be in00:18:49
the range of00:18:54
9397 Well then, based on this00:18:57
forecast, it turns out that this is where it is00:18:59
now, where it has been trading for the last00:19:00
month and a half and, accordingly, all00:19:04
Putin’s decrees the sale of foreign currency earnings, which the00:19:06
Hooray Patriot presented as almost a00:19:08
fight against the oligarchs with fat cats and00:19:10
the export of capital, plus an increase in the key00:19:12
rate, at best, does not work and, at00:19:15
worst, simply compensates for the even greater00:19:17
scale of economic efficiency and the export of00:19:19
money from the country, laying companies in Turkey00:19:22
in China there in the Emirates Who is where Well00:19:24
look Dim about the credit bubble separately00:19:27
at the meeting said that she is very concerned about the00:19:30
overheating of the economy, we understand that the00:19:32
Russian overheating of the economy, you know,00:19:34
sweated with a seriously ill cholera patient00:19:38
before dying before00:19:39
throwing himself back The Russian economy will become00:19:41
such a World Cup Yes already so amazed by the00:19:45
prolich, which means you correctly said that00:19:49
household loans grew by 4.500:19:51
trillion rubles, according to the Central Bank’s estimates, and from00:19:55
28.5 there to 33 trillion rubles continue00:19:59
to grow, she said that tightening monetary00:20:02
policy should reduce the growth rate of00:20:04
bank credit in the economy to 500:20:06
dash 10% next year from00:20:16
20% 12% today 14%00:20:21
deposit00:20:24
rates are adjusted most quickly will make it possible to compensate for the00:20:28
citizens' interest in deposits has increased in addition to the00:20:31
flow of funds from current accounts to00:20:33
time deposits We note the return to00:20:37
banks of previously withdrawn00:20:39
cash in the credit market adjustment00:20:42
occurs with at different speeds in00:20:44
different segments, according to current00:20:47
data, there are signs of a slowdown in the growth00:20:55
of insecurity at a high rate, but00:20:58
this is affected by the influence of preferential00:21:00
programs that are not sensitive to the00:21:02
key rate; that part of the mortgage00:21:05
portfolio that is formed on market00:21:07
conditions is already reacting to the tightening of policy.00:21:10
Well, listen, we understand,00:21:11
we and They talked a lot about this: the00:21:13
key rate has doubled over the00:21:15
last 4 months from 7.5 to 15%. I think it00:21:18
will also be 17% by the end of the year. Well, this00:21:21
basically means that mortgages are already00:21:23
15 percent, which means that00:21:26
consumer loans are 30 40 % for00:21:29
a business well over 25, even over 30, there00:21:32
will be no way to take it without collateral,00:21:34
so many will go bankrupt,00:21:36
because many took out loans, so they00:21:38
collected trillions of rubles in total Yes,00:21:40
precisely in order to refinance00:21:42
previously taken debts, buy food there,00:21:44
pay for utilities for children to go to school00:21:46
there the operation can be performed in our00:21:47
affordable medicine, but even now they will00:21:50
not be able to take it; the rate will be twice as high for00:21:51
them and the volume of the loan will be less, and according to the00:21:54
latest estimates, in the month of October, already00:21:56
80% of all new applications for a loan banks,00:22:00
accordingly, are not allowed not to00:22:03
accept the ability is low; wave of00:22:05
non-payments, let's look at this topic,00:22:07
how it can hit not only business,00:22:09
but also demand,00:22:13
we know that in total00:22:16
more than 260,000 people have gone through the bankruptcy procedure since the00:22:19
beginning of this year, they declared themselves00:22:20
bankrupt Well, almost 18 ml of00:22:23
Russian bailiffs are incapable00:22:29
of loans, that is their cases are already00:22:31
being processed, I think that there 2122 M00:22:33
will get incapable for the elections in00:22:35
March and it’s just Lovina don’t pay00:22:42
bankrupt individuals, how will they00:22:45
pay if they00:22:47
have a job, they won’t get a new00:22:49
loan, that is, the task now00:22:51
of the central ban shat accordingly00:22:54
thirst for redim00:22:56
sick only those who are on00:22:59
revolving loans, that is, who are00:23:01
paying a loan on a loan, will there be00:23:03
21,000 there, well, I would say just now, in00:23:07
any case, the compliance of banks will be00:23:10
very strict in their approach to new loans,00:23:11
just don’t issue it, it’s not will lead,00:23:14
by the way, to the accumulation of capital, this will first of all00:23:15
simply lead to00:23:20
Well, a cooling of the development market of the00:23:25
electronics market because there simply aren’t enough00:23:27
people to00:23:28
buy this aircraft, so they00:23:30
were counting on00:23:33
credit, well, they don’t know how to save, they’re just00:23:37
relatively speaking about00:23:39
nothing else that00:23:41
you’ve ever had00:23:44
[music]00:23:50
it remains so that people koto00:23:56
Redi00:23:59
they They they will go accordingly to a00:24:02
microfinance organization there will00:24:04
now be just a00:24:07
boom precisely microfinance00:24:10
organizations will benefit from this00:24:13
kind of increase in rates and their rates will00:24:15
naturally rise and accordingly the00:24:17
collectors will be happy So everything is in00:24:21
profit Yeah00:24:23
let's say Yeah00:24:26
Yeah Yeah00:24:31
and well, well, in general, it won't be good for anyone,00:24:34
neither business nor small business, not us, this00:24:38
task will be good, it will be an official.00:24:40
Therefore, they all do everything for themselves, they feel00:24:43
comfortable, they do everything absolutely00:24:46
comfortably within the framework of what they need,00:24:51
everything is by the way Russian Kuso bonds00:24:54
continue to fall on the stock exchange, getting cheaper,00:24:57
of course, not a collapse, but not a collapse, they are00:25:01
sinking. So far, yes, five-year00:25:04
government bonds are already giving a yield of00:25:07
more than00:25:08
13.2. About this, five-year bonds, which00:25:12
was clear a year ago, the yield was00:25:16
92%, which means, well, before the start of00:25:20
hostilities and In total, with this associated00:25:22
sanctions, everything else, the profitability00:25:24
reached00:25:26
about00:25:28
Well there, a little more there 75 That is, if00:25:31
now the state itself can borrow00:25:33
at00:25:35
13.5, then you need to understand that for all00:25:38
other economic entities the rate00:25:39
will be one and a half to two times higher because00:25:41
formally the state is the most such a risk-free00:25:43
benchmark borrower turns out to be so,00:25:49
but then one has to be surprised when Rava’s economics states that the00:25:54
knife is overheating. In general, as00:25:58
I understand it, they have driven themselves into a00:25:59
dead end. They are all of them, everything is fine.00:26:02
Well, the dead end is not a dead end for them. The key question is that the00:26:05
main thing for them is to provide for their wants,00:26:08
the rest is not their problem is the problem of the00:26:10
Indians, they don’t care about them, in general they00:26:14
behave correctly Well, how right00:26:16
it is for themselves Russia is a feudal00:26:19
state ruled by a00:26:21
lieutenant general I get tired of repeating00:26:23
so nothing fundamentally00:26:26
will change00:26:29
Well listen, you’re right, I have the feeling that I00:26:32
didn’t do it solely to report to00:26:35
Vladimir Vladimi that it is fighting inflation00:26:37
there, the nations have already00:26:42
forgotten about corporate history, so00:26:45
absolutely clean technology is the only thing00:26:48
surprising about all this technology. Well, it’s a little00:26:51
surprising that the foreign exchange rate was raised by00:26:56
2,00:26:58
as I already said in money, but00:27:01
since it could have been raised by 1% and not00:27:05
give yourself a headache00:27:07
Meanwhile, the Russian stock market00:27:11
today, in general, in response to the key00:27:14
rate,00:27:17
the subsidence was very sluggish. But by the end of the00:27:20
trading session, against the backdrop of, well,00:27:22
the rise in oil prices and, in general, the forecast00:27:25
for the growth of exporters’ incomes Well, for example,00:27:27
but also st. that is, a strong ball is not about00:27:31
everyone, in principle, for a long time. As far as I00:27:32
understand, I don’t care about all these decisions, everyone is surviving00:27:35
as best they can.00:27:36
And so Dima, these are the currency commissioners00:27:39
who are now00:27:41
being brought into the company by Rosfin monitoring. What kind of00:27:43
infiltration system is this for especially patriotic00:27:46
citizens who By and large,00:27:48
they duplicate the function of not only the financial00:27:50
director, but also the00:27:56
general director; they practically determine the entire00:27:58
position. Despite the fact that the authorities00:28:00
claim that they, of course, will not00:28:02
make decisions, but where will you go without00:28:04
money? The investment program is00:28:06
sorting out goods, raw materials, and materials00:28:09
because And they have one functionality currency00:28:11
should be on the stock exchange everything Alice00:28:14
you have an investment program you need to00:28:16
buy something No need No one cares And00:28:20
since naturally you become00:28:22
an official, what is more valuable than in the00:28:25
case when you cause a problem like00:28:35
this Well, how will this affect that the very00:28:40
fight against inflation, rising prices, which is what00:28:53
the officials of00:28:56
the Federation Council talk about about this about chicken about meat in general,00:29:00
therefore, therefore, somehow their00:29:03
only method is precisely so that00:29:06
supposedly our curtains go nowhere in00:29:09
orderly rows there for export and00:29:11
everything is right behind they are lining up00:29:13
in order to buy something because00:29:16
all other countries are starving, but here everything is00:29:18
just fun so00:29:21
they are already00:29:26
using it, so cellular operators00:29:29
have announced a potential increase in00:29:30
communication tariffs by00:29:32
10-1500:29:34
Russian Railways is also about 10 % increase in fares for00:29:38
travel The Moscow Metro00:29:40
raised fares in two steps this year, which means00:29:43
there by00:29:44
89% and plus all the other monopolies,00:29:48
electricity too n plus 10 gas n 20% in00:29:53
general, as I understand it,00:29:56
all the costs of the crisis all the sanctions are00:29:59
always getting up from knees will be dumped,00:30:01
as always, on the end consumer and the00:30:03
price tag will go sky high, this is again00:30:05
inflation of costs. This has nothing to do00:30:08
with inflation of the supposed cost of00:30:10
money00:30:11
Aa cost of Crypto in the economy is the00:30:13
fight against inflation for cucumbers by increasing the cost of00:30:16
loans for business in the end it will actually turn out00:30:18
what is00:30:19
happening now with us, they absolutely don’t care,00:30:23
in their canteens everything will be fine, they will00:30:26
never00:30:30
run out of food,00:30:33
God forbid, black caviar, so00:30:36
Well, they will have00:30:39
some problems, no, they will not happen, everything will happen00:30:41
them good so good good means00:30:45
What do you think now the range there is 929300:30:49
rubles per dollar in the perspective of buying foreign00:30:52
currency from a year plus some savings00:30:54
would you now assume look ri00:30:59
[music] the fact00:31:05
that after the March00:31:07
resetting of the reassignment Zakan dest of00:31:10
Putin’s decree on the sale of foreign exchange revenue00:31:12
and the ruble will move Well, accordingly, to keep the00:31:14
course strong, no political00:31:16
motives will even be allowed to be released, and00:31:18
in principle, 110 11200:31:26
115 they certainly won’t do it there 13500:31:29
And everything else is simply not00:31:31
necessary, but if it’s safer to compare currencies,00:31:35
I think that’s why it’s unfortunate I have already00:31:39
cited these figures many times. That over the00:31:42
past decades, the currency has been more profitable00:31:47
there than Moscow real estate and more profitable than00:31:49
all stock indices. I don’t like00:31:52
this kind of Well, somehow statistics but00:31:54
the fact remains a00:31:56
fact00:31:57
[music]00:32:02
Yes, in general, you recommend not to rely too much00:32:04
on a strong ruble that this is all a00:32:07
political administrative decision of the00:32:09
economics department behind it, not I am very calm00:32:12
about the fact that well, the authorities00:32:15
play as they think. Why00:32:17
should they play by some other00:32:26
rules? Well, that means our assessments with you that there00:32:29
will be an increase in the tax00:32:31
burden, the fiscal burden will00:32:33
climb again in the pockets of the population, business00:32:35
was supported in Renaissance capital in00:32:38
Alfabank Well, not directly indirectly00:32:45
Renaissance in00:32:53
order to go home with the retirement00:32:56
age Well, Alfa Capital Alfabank00:32:58
predicts an increase in the income tax00:33:01
Filis not counting all the excise taxes there are00:33:04
tariffs monopolies the price of gasoline and so on00:33:06
etc. What do you think when to expect00:33:09
happiness there in June in March in May, in00:33:12
principle, what will they start with?00:33:29
Well, now the company has00:33:32
124 non-tax payments in00:33:36
total, so fundamentally00:33:38
this kind of levies will simply grow when00:33:40
we discussed the plateau there Plato has00:33:43
long ago been lost in the general00:33:46
picture of the world there are 124 of them in total00:33:52
Well, yes there00:33:55
Irie about a huge00:33:59
number 124 124 tax00:34:03
payments are true. Let us remind you00:34:07
that within the framework of the adopted budget,00:34:09
which was voted just yesterday,00:34:12
Russia LDPR00:34:14
voted completely for the adopted00:34:16
budget, which00:34:18
means that it implies an increase of 5 trillion00:34:22
rubles in non-oil and gas00:34:25
revenues00:34:27
and revenues from exports Oil and Gas, that is,00:34:30
oil and gas income Yes, but when00:34:33
propagandists tell us on TV00:34:34
that this is a great Greatness of patriotism, we00:34:36
must understand that it is not oil and gas00:34:38
income that we pay out of our own pocket, it is00:34:40
income from paying ND in the price of each00:34:43
product, VAT on manufactured goods, VAT00:34:47
on imported goods And when the ruble00:34:49
falls to 100 rubles If it falls more strongly, then00:34:53
all imports become more expensive, the postage is collected from it,00:34:55
beautiful statistics that you have become00:34:58
very great spiritually means plus00:35:00
here, as we said, excise taxes, duties, a00:35:03
bunch of all sorts of other payments, these00:35:06
platono egoists, whatever you want Yes And 500:35:09
trillion rubles Listen, I’ll tell you this00:35:11
they are a poor rip-off, but it turns out almost00:35:14
well, there is 35% of GDP for the next year, they00:35:18
can’t be falling apart, maybe it00:35:19
really won’t be possible00:35:21
to cut off the business there, both the large population and the00:35:24
population, but overall the plan is good,00:35:27
ambitious, I’ll say that a long time ago, this is not the00:35:30
same thing, not STG wool advice Well, in general,00:35:33
somehow they get an appetite while00:35:36
eating, they generally realized all this, so00:35:39
for them everything is fine, the situation is stable. Well, do00:35:43
you think that their budget will not00:35:44
fall apart, that’s what they have00:35:46
planned, they won’t take the money00:35:49
Yes, because most likely their budget00:35:51
will begin to crumble, and it will begin to00:35:53
crumble sooner by the end of the year than by the00:35:57
beginning of the year, the beginning of the year is there approximately in the00:36:00
middle. Well, there until June July, in general,00:36:03
technically they can slip through. Well, it all00:36:06
depends, of course, it is clear00:36:07
on the efforts of management, what is needed in general00:36:11
somehow they are talented, sometimes they really00:36:14
do such forties when they just demolish the00:36:17
economy into rubbish, but by and large, in00:36:20
general, they still have no problems00:36:23
Prim at no00:36:27
No Yeah, so friends, a couple more words straight from00:36:33
the Central Bank report, which means, well, this is actually a comedy,00:36:36
it’s just Fantozzi in the supporting roles, you can00:36:38
reconsider either fantomas yes And in00:36:42
conclusion, Bewley said about the prospects for our policy00:36:44
The Bank of Russia has00:36:47
effective tools to reduce00:36:49
inflation to the target Remind 4% at the00:36:53
last meetings we raised the00:36:54
key rate and we will continue to do00:36:56
this again if we do not see signs of a00:36:58
sustainable slowdown in inflation and00:37:00
cooling of inflation expectations a little00:37:02
earlier the Central Bank wrote about risks00:37:04
is now called About risks They00:37:06
called it and the risks are still shifted towards00:37:08
inflation among them00:37:11
the most important is the preservation of inflation00:37:13
expectations of business and the population at00:37:15
elevated levels; higher00:37:17
dynamics and lending; increased00:37:19
overheating in the labor market and00:37:20
additional budget easing Well,00:37:23
that is, we translate into Russian00:37:24
budget easing - this is, by and large,00:37:26
expenses of printed money not covered by income,00:37:29
increasing government loans. And this year00:37:31
already 2.5 trillion rubles were borrowed,00:37:33
next year 4-5 trillion will be borrowed00:37:36
for printing and lending Dmitry00:37:38
Valerievich everything is fine Explained perfectly00:37:40
and, accordingly, the inflationary desires of00:37:43
business and the population, that is, it turns out00:37:44
that Dima’s population is wrong and the business is00:37:47
crooked. We have them sitting and waiting for inflation. But they00:37:50
could turn a blind eye to the increase in00:37:51
excise taxes there, duties on the increase in00:37:53
purchase prices for the devaluation of the ruble 7000:37:56
to rubles since the beginning of the year by 40%, even there by00:37:58
50% practically yes one and a half times and00:38:02
don’t expect anything Well, some fools you know,00:38:03
Vanya is sitting on the stove, you know, with an00:38:06
extra chromosome, he’s a little00:38:08
degenerate, he says And what does he say, well, the00:38:10
ruble is 100 they are 50 that year Well, there00:38:12
will be no costs, I won’t expect anything,00:38:14
I won’t plan anything, and the population00:38:15
goes to the store and just doesn’t see the00:38:18
prices of products there. Yes, you see,00:38:20
this is all business, the population is waiting00:38:25
ionically00:38:27
[music]00:38:28
the government has long ago accused citizens of00:38:33
excessive, accordingly excessive,00:38:36
excessive desire living00:38:46
well is not a patriotic people, the population is very00:38:55
wrong for some reason, Bet loans00:38:59
for some reason00:39:00
buys a lot of things, so this is just some kind of00:39:03
disgrace00:39:05
for next year, the Central Bank gave a00:39:08
forecast for the key rate in the range of 1200:39:11
C5 14 s to per annum, but that is, guys00:39:15
we have an economic breakthrough and the May decrees00:39:18
will work simply masterpiece with the00:39:21
cost of a loan of 20% plus burn govo00:39:24
What business has loans grown in? Well, let's say so,00:39:28
well, he pawns everything, he pawns00:39:30
essentially the matter What is a loan - it is the00:39:32
sale of future profitability00:39:33
today yes Ah, most of the00:39:37
businesses in general, they live their future00:39:40
profitability, and they live very,00:39:41
very actively Yeah, very00:39:45
actively, very actively, I’ll be00:39:49
honest, Yeah, well, that is, it is necessary to recoup a twenty00:39:53
percent interest rate of thirty percent on00:39:54
up to capital00:39:57
in drugs. What is called trading in00:39:59
nothing else because it is00:40:01
unrealistic Well, yes, massage parlors, brothels,00:40:05
although we condemn we condemn the trade in00:40:07
prohibited substances, we condemn00:40:09
drug addiction, of course, and all these things just in00:40:11
case. We must say unconditionally, but in00:40:13
general, by and large, all other00:40:15
areas of activity about such00:40:22
bloodletting, these are the main sanctions00:40:24
imposed by the authorities against the economy of00:40:26
their own population. Well, yes,00:40:31
that’s why they are only here let's go As00:40:35
they say, they devour and devour, devour and00:40:38
devour, so of course yes, good Dim00:40:41
Well, at the very end, the last question for you,00:40:43
and I know you always pay00:40:46
attention to the issue of demography, you understand00:40:48
that without demography there is no economy,00:40:50
only in a cemetery you can00:40:51
talk about the economy without demography A00:40:54
so you often had the00:40:56
famous demographer Raksha on your broadcasts. One of the00:41:00
brightest, yes, bright,00:41:04
thoughtful, let’s say the position of the experts, and00:41:08
let’s talk about demography.00:41:09
So Rosstat published a wonderful,00:41:12
very patriotic forecast on the movement of the00:41:15
population until 2046, it’s just a00:41:18
fairy tale and a song it turns out that we will00:41:21
live so well and make money so well00:41:23
people's savings and us project00:41:25
demography That in 23 years, by the00:41:28
year forty-six, the population of Russia00:41:30
will decrease by00:41:32
7.7 million people; negative growth00:41:36
annually will be about 320,350,000 people00:41:40
annually, but in the coming year it will00:41:43
even reach up to 650,000 people, that is,00:41:45
where it was in the twenty-second year00:41:47
600,000 from the beginning of this year in 10 in00:41:50
9 months there are already 320,000 almost00:41:53
extinction of depopulation Well, even the00:41:57
influx of migrants from Central Asia there from00:41:59
Iran from Africa from Somalia Zimbabwe I do00:42:02
n’t know Guineas there Bissau from somewhere will not00:42:04
compensate for the negative growth,00:42:07
which means for the forecast that there will be plus 230,00000:42:10
migrants annually, and the00:42:14
influx is pure Net Well, it will not00:42:16
even compensate for the depopulation. As a result,00:42:17
without taking into account the new four00:42:19
regions there, there are 7.7 million people00:42:24
and Well, as if there is no economy,00:42:27
no greatness, no so-00:42:29
called sovereignty, who say there,00:42:31
no means a00:42:34
capacious solvent market, and we see how incomes have00:42:36
been falling there since the fourteenth year, what are00:42:38
we talking about? Well, somehow it’s not foreseen how00:42:39
you would even00:42:41
get stuck with C5 million until the forty-sixth year,00:42:44
this is still a moderate forecast, not the00:42:46
worst, not00:42:56
Well, somehow the video with the title, the population of00:43:00
Russia is dying and aging for a long time, has been walking after00:43:04
mine with my god Yes, it’s very old It’s00:43:08
probably already about 10 years old and00:43:11
unfortunately Well, over these decades In general,00:43:15
the power is growing and more, well, if I still00:43:19
somehow expected that she would at least somehow00:43:21
begin to correct But since the authorities are00:43:24
very00:43:25
profitable Yeah, the00:43:28
driving country is women from 45 to 4800:43:33
years old, that is, here we are because there is a Christmas tree00:43:36
This is the whole demographics, but00:43:39
very little happens at birth Of course,00:43:42
Islamization is big enough here, there00:43:45
is a political challenge there, but this is already the00:43:48
ground there. In my opinion, I have00:43:51
already said on several broadcasts that the ground is00:43:53
prepared as00:43:55
soon as the leftists understand that00:44:00
in this00:44:01
beggar, there is a00:44:07
huge Hector, as they say, a nuclear electorate the00:44:12
people there who are close to Islam00:44:15
will pick up the red manuals there00:44:18
will be a serious charge for Russia in relation to the world00:44:25
because00:44:31
[music]00:44:33
go to the00:44:39
march this is the Armed Forces00:44:41
dispute sports is not a hindrance this is the00:44:46
truth to increase demographics a way to00:44:54
isolate children and destroy 20% of the00:44:59
population who than -they are dissatisfied and00:45:00
somehow do not support the current course00:45:02
and the current government. How do you think this00:45:05
in general is how this is the right00:45:07
call and incentive for an00:45:09
economic demographic breakthrough00:45:12
there for some kind of cheat for a bright00:45:14
future for us, as it were, an ethos, well, how00:45:18
can Mr. Rylev allow himself00:45:20
to say whatever he considers necessary and00:45:22
therefore this00:45:24
fa will00:45:26
not come to him for this. It’s not00:45:29
you, he00:45:32
can, he can do whatever he thinks is00:45:36
necessary, as the head of the State Duma ethics commission said,00:45:40
what was the name of our cosmonaut, the00:45:43
first woman in00:45:47
space00:45:52
Tereshkova nullification of the president, it turns00:45:55
out that there is a call for the00:45:57
destruction of 20% of the population of 30% of 30 million00:46:01
people, this is a value judgment, this is a00:46:02
figurative expression of thought, this is just an00:46:04
assessment of a person. Well, that’s how he sees00:46:06
the situation and this is not a call. I just00:46:08
can’t even00:46:10
imagine how much for saying00:46:14
less. ok, how would they close down00:46:16
10-15 of some opposition00:46:18
politician, deputy there, blogger, this is00:46:21
what is00:46:22
allowed to Jupiter would not be allowed, yes,00:46:25
therefore,00:46:26
yes, Russia is a feudal state00:46:29
controlled [music] by a00:46:31
lieutenant general. Well, listen, well, with people like that,00:46:33
I’m00:46:35
sorry with people like that. you00:46:38
don’t need enemies like that00:46:40
Yeah Yes 100% well, they’ve already00:46:44
got it right, they’ve already written it into the plan,00:46:47
the forecast of what this will happen, that they00:46:49
expect the extinction of 75 ml people and00:46:52
they said that, in principle, we need to00:46:53
approach this with the understanding that there, at00:46:56
best, we’ll have a woman to give birth00:46:58
now to 1.4 children in a year, so from00:47:01
1928 there will be a00:47:02
small increase in the birth rate Well, there are 1.6 6500:47:06
children maximum, that is, we will live00:47:08
very apparently happily00:47:09
richly having defeated inflation with00:47:12
jobs in a technological economy Well, in00:47:14
principle, with our special way there00:47:18
Well, thank you very much that it’s time for us00:47:19
to go on air, I am very grateful to you, I00:47:21
shake your hand. Thank you for continuing to00:47:24
show this position on my broadcasts and00:47:27
voicing the position of common sense, we00:47:30
understand that common sense is honor,00:47:33
dignity and true patriotism and not the00:47:36
kind that is implanted in us and00:47:39
which was well said by Skom Shchedrin,00:47:41
that somewhere they started talking about patriotism,00:47:43
hold tight, someone stole something00:47:45
or wants to tell you something, but in general, this is why00:47:48
we have Clem on agents as enemies today,00:47:54
friends, we ask our subscribers to00:47:57
like the broadcast and subscribe00:47:58
to Dmitry Potapenko's channel in Yuba in00:48:00
Dima's cart on Telegram, very cool00:48:02
streams, the whole behind-the-scenes story of his broadcasts00:48:05
is shown there with Dyomushkin00:48:07
Dimo and on other broadcasts from I'm on art,00:48:10
so be sure to subscribe, very00:48:11
serious support So, like and00:48:14
spread this video and who wants to00:48:15
support the channel, all information on00:48:17
the broadcast is available, I am very00:48:19
grateful to you Dim Thank you very muchDescription:
С экономистом, предпринимателем, политиком Дмитрием Потапенко о повышении ключевой ставки Банком России сразу с 13 до 15%, рекордной инфляции (уже 12% в 3-м квартале), кризисе неплатежей и рекордном числе банкротств россиян и бизнеса! 18+ НАСТОЯЩИЙ МАТЕРИАЛ ПРОИЗВЕДЁН, РАСПРОСТРАНЁН И НАПРАВЛЕН ИНОСТРАННЫМ АГЕНТОМ ЖУКОВСКИМ ВЛАДИСЛАВОМ СЕРГЕЕВИЧЕМ Готовят дефолт? Что будет с долларом, ценами, стоимостью кредитов, ипотекой, сбережениями и уровнем жизни? Феодально-олигархический режим ведёт в пропасть - беднеть будем все. 🔥Друзья, спасибо вам огромное за поддержку! Чтобы поддержать канал, обязательно подпишитесь, напишите комментарий, нажмите колокольчик и распространите видео! ‼️ОТДЕЛЬНАЯ БЛАГОДАРНОСТЬ ТЕМ, КТО ПОДДЕРЖИВАЕТ РАЗВИТИЕ КАНАЛА ФИНАНСОВО В ЭТО НЕПРОСТОЕ ВРЕМЯ! ВЫ ВНОСИТЕ НЕОЦЕНИМЫЙ ВКЛАД👍🏻 НОМЕР КАРТЫ ДЛЯ ДОНАТА: 2202206266597009 🔥ССЫЛКА НА ДОНАТЫ И ВОПРОСЫ: https://www.donationalerts.com/r/vlad_zhukovskiy ❗️Также не забудьте подписаться на каналы Потапенко: @PotapenkoDmitry https://t.me/PotapenkoDmitry https://www.youtube.com/c/PotapenkoDmitry https://twitter.com/DmitryPotapenko Поддержи трудовой копейкой ₽ и $ центом € команду! За рубежом: PayPal: [email protected] Patreon https://www.patreon.com/Potapenko РФ Потапенко Мир Сбер: 220220613364
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