Download "Позитивный прогноз на российскую экономику. Экономический смысл с Олегом Ицхоки"

"videoThumbnail Позитивный прогноз на российскую экономику. Экономический смысл с Олегом Ицхоки

Нефтегазовый парадокс. За санкции против РФ Запад ЗАПЛАТИТ ВДВОЙНЕ!

Нефтегазовый парадокс. За санкции против РФ Запад ЗАПЛАТИТ ВДВОЙНЕ!

Channel: Борис Марцинкевич

Запорожская АЭС - новый Чернобыль? Крипторынок рушится, Оливье дешевеет / Новости

Запорожская АЭС - новый Чернобыль? Крипторынок рушится, Оливье дешевеет / Новости

Channel: InvestFuture

ГАЗПРОМ СТАЛ УБЫТОЧНЫМ. Газовая Империя России начала РУШИТЬСЯ?

ГАЗПРОМ СТАЛ УБЫТОЧНЫМ. Газовая Империя России начала РУШИТЬСЯ?

Channel: Геоэнергетика ИНФО

Доллар и биткоин рванули вверх! Экономические новости с Николаем Мрочковским

Доллар и биткоин рванули вверх! Экономические новости с Николаем Мрочковским

Channel: Nikolay Mrochkovskiy

Валентин Катасонов о великой перезагрузке Шваба. Планы мировой закулисы и развал России | Интервью

Валентин Катасонов о великой перезагрузке Шваба. Планы мировой закулисы и развал России | Интервью

Channel: СОЮЗНОЕ ВЕЧЕ

Инфляция! Экономический смысл с Олегом Ицхоки

Инфляция! Экономический смысл с Олегом Ицхоки

Channel: The Breakfast Show

экономика

экономика россии

экономический прогноз на 2024

экономика прогноз

мвф

российская экономика

российская экономика 2024

российский газ

сжиженный газ

европа российский газ

сланцевая нефть

сланцевая революция

зеленый переход

олег ицхоки

ицхоки интервью

ицхоки экономист

мировой рынок

ицхоки олег

ицхоки последнее

ицхоки

ицхоки плющев

новости экономики

экономический смысл

деньги

экономические новости

обзор экономики

простая экономика

российскаяэкономика

00:00:03

[music]

00:00:09

Dear Oleg, a few days ago the IMF

00:00:13

gave a forecast and of course we are most

00:00:15

interested in what is happening in Russia, but perhaps

00:00:17

you will take a broader look. And in the

00:00:22

Russian part, many noted that

00:00:25

this forecast is even better than the authorities themselves expect,

00:00:30

something like

00:00:32

26% and it seems that in modern times it’s

00:00:36

really not bad. What could

00:00:40

be the catch or there may be no catch?

00:00:44

Yes, come on. I’ll first say what’s interesting

00:00:46

to us and then I’ll say what’s interesting to you,

00:00:50

but yes, Hi Yes, well, look,

00:00:54

it really was literally on

00:00:56

these days, Per Elvi Rins, he is the

00:01:01

chief economist of the IMF, several times a

00:01:03

year, I think four, they present

00:01:06

the forecast

00:01:07

and say how they changed the

00:01:10

results of the previous year and how they

00:01:12

change the forecast for the next year. That is,

00:01:15

every six months you can see how the

00:01:17

IMF’s view of the world economy changes

00:01:20

for each region for each country And

00:01:24

by the way, I’ll give you a link, you can just

00:01:27

watch it on Twitter, they post it

00:01:29

with comments and there’s even a video where

00:01:32

they mean they’re holding this conference,

00:01:34

you can watch everything they say Well,

00:01:36

I’ll retell more or less what

00:01:39

happened in the last six months, but

00:01:41

there was a fairly significant

00:01:44

revision of growth in 2023, and the world

00:01:47

economy in two thirds of the year grew

00:01:49

significantly faster than expected, everyone

00:01:53

expected a recession, but in particular

00:01:54

due to the fact that the fight against inflation

00:01:57

has been taking place over the last 6 months,

00:01:59

we have learned that firstly, we

00:02:02

can now say with almost complete confidence

00:02:03

that inflation has ended in

00:02:05

Western countries and, accordingly, this

00:02:08

means that here is the forecast for the twenty-fourth

00:02:10

year that in the second half of the twenty-

00:02:12

fourth they will already reduce interest

00:02:13

rates, and that is, Lord, food prices in Lithuania

00:02:16

will finally stop rising in price

00:02:19

Well, Europe is a little behind, but in general,

00:02:23

Yes, inflation is over and, accordingly,

00:02:26

Yes, you can now expect that

00:02:29

inflation,

00:02:30

as it were, in the long-term state will be below 2%,

00:02:33

it should be here in America there is

00:02:36

quite a lot of confidence that

00:02:38

this has already happened, but the Central Bank

00:02:40

also recently announced that he is not yet

00:02:42

reducing interest rates until they are

00:02:44

finally convinced of this, which

00:02:46

means, but what is most surprising is that

00:02:50

this decrease in inflation occurred without a

00:02:52

recession, that is, most

00:02:54

economists expected a recession, but as

00:02:56

a result of this, a recession did not happen and

00:02:59

surprisingly America grew very

00:03:02

quickly. it was also

00:03:05

unexpected, it

00:03:07

means that Russia grew last year by Well, that

00:03:11

means official data. This is somewhere

00:03:13

around 3%, that is, the drop that was

00:03:16

in ’22 by about two-and

00:03:18

-something was

00:03:20

compensated for by growth in

00:03:24

’23 and, as it were, based on the results of two years, it

00:03:26

turned out, but they expected a much larger

00:03:30

drop, well, most other

00:03:32

regions were actually growing and

00:03:36

negative adjustments were mainly in

00:03:39

China. That is, China grew more slowly than

00:03:40

expected. And in fact, if we look

00:03:43

at the twenty-fourth year, the forecast is

00:03:46

relatively optimistic about

00:03:48

growth and China is the only region where

00:03:51

growth is expected, but at a slower rate than

00:03:55

if we looked there a few years

00:03:57

ago, yes. That is, China is now growing at a

00:03:59

rate instead of 67% or seven, in

00:04:03

fact, as they are used to, and China

00:04:05

is expected to grow 45 % And the

00:04:08

record holder for growth will be India, as it was

00:04:10

last year. That is, it is expected that

00:04:12

India is taking the place of China. India

00:04:14

will grow at a seven percent rate

00:04:17

in the foreseeable in the foreseeable future. Yes, but

00:04:20

here it must be emphasized that what we approximately

00:04:23

expect, we approximately expect that developed

00:04:25

countries are growing a little less than 2% and

00:04:28

catching up is what we call

00:04:30

developing countries are growing 45% to

00:04:33

catch up and then the gap is really

00:04:35

shrinking, this is what we are used to Yes, apparently, well,

00:04:38

well, all these

00:04:40

forecasts They are just saying that we

00:04:42

are returning back to this situation where

00:04:44

developed countries will grow by about two and

00:04:47

this is not bad for developed countries and

00:04:49

catching up countries Well, for now

00:04:52

they will be a little slower Grow not 5 But 4% But it’s

00:04:55

kind of going back And back to the usual

00:04:58

situation before Covid and that means Well, that’s

00:05:02

the only India and China seems to

00:05:03

have switched places, that’s what’s

00:05:05

interesting. And yes, well, inflation has ended,

00:05:08

now one big question remains. This is

00:05:10

how quickly interest rates will decrease.

00:05:12

This is actually an interesting question

00:05:14

to discuss separately, and that is, inflation

00:05:17

has ended, and interest rates can

00:05:20

remain high. Yes And so we have become accustomed to

00:05:22

living in a world with low interest

00:05:24

rates for the last 15 years. But in

00:05:26

fact this is not the norm. Until 2005,

00:05:28

interest rates were significantly above

00:05:31

zero, that is, they were 34%, and for the

00:05:34

last 15 years, interest rates have been

00:05:36

close to zero all the time, yes it is in

00:05:38

fact And how unusual from the point of view of

00:05:42

such long horizons If we look at

00:05:44

such interest rates have never happened

00:05:45

and now the big question is Will

00:05:47

interest rates return to what we were used to over the

00:05:50

last 15 years before Covid Yes or will

00:05:53

they remain high as they were before

00:05:55

2005 This is a fundamentally important

00:05:57

question Well, well, in particular, this is a

00:06:00

separate big topic, what will

00:06:02

countries with accumulated debt do,

00:06:03

especially after Covid, where all the developed

00:06:07

countries took a lot of time and what will they

00:06:10

do with it now? It

00:06:12

will probably be big there. topic for the next

00:06:15

few years, this means that

00:06:16

as for the big review of the economy, that

00:06:18

is, the problem of inflation will

00:06:20

gradually be replaced by the problem of debt. We will

00:06:22

discuss it in the coming years. And for

00:06:24

a long time in all countries. Well, now,

00:06:27

a few words about Russia,

00:06:29

the IMF really gave a very optimistic the forecast is

00:06:32

several times more optimistic than the

00:06:33

forecast of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, for example,

00:06:36

and this means it hit the headlines, but it is

00:06:38

similar to the forecast, in my opinion, of the Ministry of Economic

00:06:40

Development in fact. The fact is that

00:06:42

when the IMF makes forecasts, they must

00:06:44

rely on the data that the

00:06:46

missions send them, each of them each country

00:06:49

and in this sense, and this is something that can be

00:06:52

clarified with the first Lev Gorinch, he is

00:06:55

also my co-author, so I

00:06:56

can ask him this: And to what extent

00:06:59

I don’t know whether he will answer me honestly

00:07:01

or say that he will not answer, but

00:07:04

they are quite- they still rely heavily on

00:07:05

the data that the missions of

00:07:07

each country send them and in this sense their

00:07:09

forecasts are not completely independent, they seem to

00:07:11

deviate from these forecasts -

00:07:14

well, this will mean some kind of break in relations

00:07:15

and since they want to

00:07:18

maintain relations by exchanging data,

00:07:20

then in principle I do not I know how

00:07:23

seriously we can take

00:07:25

this as an independent assessment or how

00:07:27

much it is, well, because it is based on the

00:07:29

figure given by the Ministry of Economic Development. Well,

00:07:32

here we must say this is an important, this important

00:07:34

explanation. But you know, I want to say that,

00:07:38

like in that joke, literally here- then the

00:07:40

chip hit me

00:07:43

here, but look, it means that in

00:07:47

general, it’s natural that the Russian

00:07:49

economy If we look at GDP,

00:07:52

it showed Well, amazing is the word res,

00:07:56

that is, it’s

00:07:58

somehow in Russian some kind of

00:08:01

rebound that is associated with its resistance

00:08:04

to difficulties Yes Lin will mean

00:08:07

something that economists did not expect, and in

00:08:09

general economists expected that this

00:08:11

gap in relations between Russia and Europe,

00:08:13

primarily because there

00:08:14

were large trade flows with Europe,

00:08:16

will be much more and is associated with large

00:08:19

costs for the Russian economy and

00:08:21

for European and here everything

00:08:23

should be proportional to the size of

00:08:25

trade because for the Russian

00:08:27

economy the European market was so

00:08:29

flat and it seemed that the blow to the

00:08:32

Russian economy would be huge from

00:08:34

this, yes. And a big surprise

00:08:35

happened in what seems to be the

00:08:38

results of Well, actually one year from the

00:08:40

beginning of the war and the European and

00:08:43

Russian economies prepared for this gap And

00:08:46

without the losses that

00:08:49

economists expected Yes, this is generally a bit of a

00:08:51

surprise, that is, we will now

00:08:53

rethink our theories on the basis of

00:08:56

which we obtained these results Yes, and

00:08:59

that means, well, it’s obvious that

00:09:01

aa turned out to be so in the modern world

00:09:04

when there is a great need, and the fact that companies

00:09:07

often want to say that it is very difficult

00:09:09

to do, but when there is a great

00:09:10

need aa and that means you wo

00:09:14

n’t earn money any other way. The only

00:09:16

way is if you need to

00:09:17

redirect all trade flows

00:09:19

to completely different regions of the world, then this

00:09:21

can be done very quickly Yes, that’s where

00:09:23

the economists were wrong. This is how

00:09:24

quickly it will be possible to do it;

00:09:26

it seemed that in one year this is in no way

00:09:28

impossible. Well, let me remind you that this means that

00:09:31

Europe was the main consumer of

00:09:33

Russian energy resources, for example oil;

00:09:35

this was 60% of Russia’s exports went to

00:09:38

Europe, approximately a now 60%

00:09:40

goes to China Yes And the fact that they

00:09:44

managed to do this in one year is actually a

00:09:46

big surprise Yes, that means And in

00:09:50

connection with this Well, it means that the IMF really

00:09:53

has always been conservative in assessing the

00:09:56

decline of the Russian economy, but now,

00:09:58

on the contrary, it is optimistic

00:10:00

in about 2024 Well, this is a rather important

00:10:05

separate conversation to say, there is

00:10:07

some modal scenario or there is an

00:10:09

average or median scenario. And of

00:10:12

course, in the context of Russia, it is important to

00:10:14

talk about the dispersion of different options of

00:10:16

what can happen, what are the non-

00:10:18

central scenarios, and what else does that

00:10:21

mean Well The IMF didn’t do this work.

00:10:23

But in principle, high-quality economic

00:10:25

journalism should

00:10:27

deal with such things.

00:10:29

I don’t know if we are of

00:10:33

good quality, we can try

00:10:35

to do this work separately if you want. In the

00:10:39

end, no one

00:10:40

bothers us for a long year and we can do it in one

00:10:44

make amendments and so on, but we

00:10:46

have, maybe more

00:10:49

superficial ones, maybe not, but nevertheless we

00:10:58

press on current topics if it’s just as it seems to me,

00:11:00

maybe we already discussed this once, there is

00:11:02

such a picture on the Internet

00:11:04

called Schrödinger’s glassware, in my opinion

00:11:07

PL This means you can google it and

00:11:11

see what it looks like. But it seems to me that

00:11:13

this actually describes quite well

00:11:15

the state of the Russian economy when

00:11:16

no one fully knows. And at what point

00:11:19

the money will run out, that is, no one fully

00:11:20

knows the

00:11:22

state of the budget. Which

00:11:24

means, well, the Russian economy

00:11:27

is supported at the expense of now and

00:11:29

budget financing, this also applies to a

00:11:31

huge part of military spending,

00:11:33

which becomes 10% of GDP

00:11:35

approximately. And it also applies to everything

00:11:38

related to investment and

00:11:41

lending because I forgot

00:11:43

what the interest rate is 18% or 17.5 at there is

00:11:49

very little private loan at such an interest rate. Basically it is a

00:11:50

subsidized loan

00:11:51

And through the state budget Yes And that’s how much

00:11:56

money will be enough in this state budget at what

00:11:58

oil prices this money will run out

00:12:00

faster it’s a bit of a mystery and until

00:12:02

this happens, that means a closet with

00:12:04

We didn’t open the dishes. We actually

00:12:06

don’t know whether the dishes there are broken or not

00:12:08

broken. This seems to me to

00:12:09

describe well the state of the Russian

00:12:12

economy. And to be honest, I don’t even know

00:12:14

what kind of experts could provide

00:12:17

assessments of economic data with any accuracy,

00:12:19

but we are closed. We know that, for example,

00:12:24

in 2023 they used

00:12:26

quite a significant part of the liquid

00:12:27

part of the

00:12:30

national welfare fund,

00:12:32

which means the Central Bank ensured the

00:12:34

sale of this national

00:12:35

welfare fund. Well, the hypothesis is that

00:12:38

this became the main source of inflation,

00:12:40

yes, but how much

00:12:42

liquid money is still left there? in this fund that

00:12:44

will close the holes in the budget, we don’t

00:12:46

know, but naturally the state of the economy is

00:12:49

directly related to this. Therefore, that

00:12:51

means, well, there is some IMF scenario Yes

00:12:54

And we don’t know this cupboard with dishes, it

00:12:57

will open in 2 or 2 years, that’s

00:13:00

all it will also be, as it were, behind a screen,

00:13:03

and that means then the intrigue will

00:13:06

delay until the year twenty-fifth.

00:13:08

But this is what I wanted to say on this

00:13:10

topic.

00:13:11

Let’s talk in the remaining five

00:13:14

minutes about the fact that the

00:13:18

question has arisen about Europe’s abandonment of the Russian of

00:13:22

rich natural gas in general, for

00:13:24

many it may be surprising that in

00:13:27

Europe, European countries are

00:13:30

actively buying actively buying

00:13:33

Russian gas, but not through pipes, they have

00:13:36

announced sanctions on pipelines, but

00:13:39

those that come in large

00:13:42

ships are bought in liquefied form

00:13:46

only this way, yes, I must correct you

00:13:48

It seems to me that I’m not

00:13:50

mistaken But in fact there were no sanctions on gas; there

00:13:54

was an embargo on oil and

00:13:57

petroleum products. And Putin

00:13:59

unilaterally refused to

00:14:01

send gas to Europe; this

00:14:03

happened approximately at the same moment when

00:14:06

mobilization was announced in September of twenty-three

00:14:08

That’s right That’s right, some countries

00:14:11

refused to buy gas themselves, and some

00:14:14

countries are still buying it. By the way,

00:14:16

through pipes. That is, I’m wrong, there

00:14:19

were no sanctions on gas,

00:14:20

but let me tell you an anecdote,

00:14:24

since we tell jokes, this is when

00:14:27

a person comes to the

00:14:29

doctor’s throat nose and says my

00:14:31

ears are shallow, the surgeon says that it needs to be

00:14:34

cut, he says what a Butcher this

00:14:36

surgeon is. Stand on the bedside table, jump,

00:14:38

you see they fell off themselves, that means

00:14:41

Well, the situation was such that Europe did not

00:14:43

have to do any sanctions;

00:14:45

in fact,

00:14:47

Putin unilaterally closed how

00:14:51

it’s called STM 1 so that Europe

00:14:54

agrees to launch 2 that’s why it’s

00:14:56

called Yes Europe did not agree

00:14:58

to launch Nord stream 2 it was not launched

00:15:01

it came under sanctions but Nord Stream 1,

00:15:03

which supplied gas, Putin single-handedly

00:15:06

stopped then explosions occurred, in

00:15:08

my opinion we don’t fully know who blew up

00:15:10

pipelines and there was only

00:15:13

one branch left, nor Stream 1, as a

00:15:15

result of this, but in any case, gas does

00:15:17

not flow through the pipes. An interesting

00:15:19

situation was that Gazprom

00:15:21

always refused to invest in the

00:15:24

technology of liquid gas. Yes,

00:15:26

another gas company invested in the technology of liquid gas. that’s

00:15:29

why it’s called novatek And

00:15:31

if I’m not mistaken, novatek was

00:15:34

like a junior competitor of Gazprom and

00:15:36

Gazprom said no. We have

00:15:38

a pipeline. And the pipeline

00:15:40

earned a lot of money from

00:15:41

its construction and therefore

00:15:43

they were not really interested in wet gas.

00:15:45

What’s interesting Now

00:15:47

there is such a big discussion about how

00:15:49

bad gas is for nature and how

00:15:53

bad liquefied gas is for nature, what kind of

00:15:55

gas leaks occur during its liquefaction,

00:15:57

this means Well, in the headlines now

00:16:00

there is such information that Biden has

00:16:02

suspended the export of

00:16:04

American liquefied gas from... for the fact

00:16:05

that they are trying to figure out how much

00:16:07

this has consequences for the environment, this

00:16:09

means that these are the demands of the

00:16:11

green parties. There is a

00:16:13

Democratic Party inside. So,

00:16:16

naturally, Trump will deal with this, immediately in

00:16:18

response, he said that as soon as he becomes

00:16:19

president, he will allow all liquefied

00:16:22

gas to be exported from America. Well, that’s

00:16:24

This is a standard situation in

00:16:26

American politics, and what’s

00:16:27

curious is that Gazprom was one of

00:16:30

the parties that, well before the war,

00:16:32

declared that liquefied gas was

00:16:36

bad for nature and therefore Europe should not

00:16:38

buy it, but should buy it through

00:16:40

a pipeline, and so, well he was

00:16:42

practically a monopolist on the European

00:16:44

market since the beginning of the war, and Europe, at

00:16:46

some insane pace, was able to

00:16:49

switch to buying liquid gas,

00:16:51

which began to come from Norway from

00:16:54

North Africa.

00:17:01

re-sent to

00:17:03

Europe, this is the work of the price mechanism

00:17:06

as soon as gas went up in price

00:17:08

and it set up a market economy

00:17:11

much faster than expected, this is

00:17:13

possible Yes And as a result of

00:17:15

actually several months, Europe Well,

00:17:17

in particular, at the moment when Putin

00:17:18

closed the pipelines, it was the fall of

00:17:21

twenty-three when it was expected that

00:17:22

Europe would freeze, in fact, it means that

00:17:25

Europe filled and stored gas. It means

00:17:29

much faster than expected A and In

00:17:32

general, it means Well, this is another fact about

00:17:34

how quickly economies can

00:17:37

adapt when it

00:17:38

means the price when the price mechanism

00:17:42

allows this to be done Yes, and the last one the

00:17:44

thing that I will say since we have

00:17:46

run out of time, this means Well, as a result of

00:17:48

all this, which means the United States has become the main

00:17:54

exporter and producer and

00:17:56

exporter of gas, but through liquefied gas,

00:17:59

naturally,

00:18:00

gas can only be exported from America in a liquefied way A And

00:18:03

this is, as it were, the result of a whole a number of

00:18:06

events associated with the shale revolution

00:18:09

that occurred there about 10-15 years

00:18:12

ago and with the growing demand for liquid gas

00:18:14

because before that there was no

00:18:16

infrastructure Yes, but over the past 15

00:18:18

years, and in particular at an accelerated pace in

00:18:20

recent years, infrastructure has been built

00:18:22

for export in America and

00:18:24

for import in Europe of this liquid gas Well,

00:18:27

now the United States is becoming the largest

00:18:29

productive exporter and,

00:18:31

in fact, the main supplier to Europe, which

00:18:34

means Well, against this background, the question is being discussed

00:18:36

whether this is good for Europe again

00:18:39

depends on one monopolist, but well, the

00:18:42

obvious answer bad, but shale

00:18:45

oil and gas exists in Europe, it’s just that Europe,

00:18:47

unlike America, doesn’t want

00:18:49

to invest in this technology,

00:18:50

really. The big topic is how

00:18:52

unfriendly it is, which means there are disputes here,

00:18:55

and this is such a charged political

00:18:57

conversation; whenever it concerns such an

00:18:59

industry, there are lobbyists who

00:19:01

say that no, it’s gas, much more a

00:19:04

Green energy than, say, oil

00:19:07

or coal, and someone says that shale

00:19:09

means production is very bad there,

00:19:12

all sorts of earthquakes can arise from this,

00:19:13

and so on, I honestly

00:19:16

don’t know what the consensus is among scientists

00:19:18

about And how much worse is Slinex?

00:19:20

But this is, as far as I understand, an

00:19:24

open question. That means, well, with

00:19:27

shale oil, it’s still completely

00:19:29

unclear how much the United States is

00:19:31

packing it, and gas. Well, about gas.

00:19:35

Listen, there is another dispute: What Europe

00:19:39

could

00:19:40

replace with more for renewable

00:19:43

energy sources, liquefied gas, but for

00:19:46

some reason it doesn’t do this. Instead,

00:19:48

it falls from one dependence to another. I

00:19:50

watched this discussion here in

00:19:53

Europe. Well, in fact, there are not

00:19:57

enough renewable sources yet.

00:19:59

Well, for example, Denmark, where there is a lot of wind.

00:20:01

Yes, in the straits. she can

00:20:03

provide herself 100% with energy from

00:20:06

wind energy, but not every day she

00:20:09

produces more in the winter than necessary when there is a

00:20:11

lot of wind. For example, in the summer she needs to

00:20:13

receive this energy, she gets it from

00:20:15

Germany. That is, she sells energy in Germany in the winter and

00:20:16

buys it in Germany in the summer.

00:20:19

in a sense, Europe is not located in a

00:20:21

geographical location where, due to

00:20:23

the sun and wind, you can easily guarantee

00:20:26

that there is no shortage

00:20:28

in America, the situation is much simpler, you

00:20:30

can simply install solar panels in

00:20:32

Arizona and this will be enough, but

00:20:34

the problem is that this solar energy must be transported from Arizona

00:20:36

somehow

00:20:38

energy until this

00:20:39

infrastructure is built for

00:20:41

several decades, it is gradually

00:20:43

being built, but in Europe the situation in this

00:20:45

sense is worse and they apparently need to use some kind of energy, which

00:20:48

means the main

00:20:50

problem, naturally, was that they

00:20:52

closed nuclear power plants, nuclear

00:20:54

energy could play precisely the role And that

00:20:57

Well, here’s a buffer and a little bit of gas at the

00:21:00

end at the peaks Yes, because at the peaks of

00:21:03

electricity use

00:21:04

it still needs to be generated locally from gas,

00:21:07

this is the easiest way but just a

00:21:08

small amount is needed for this Yes,

00:21:10

and the basis should come from the wind of

00:21:13

the sun and nuclear energy sector which Well,

00:21:17

this is one of the mistakes that continued to be

00:21:20

curtailed despite the start of the war. In

00:21:23

2020, this is Well, thank God,

00:21:25

they didn’t curtail it everywhere. Well, in Germany, yes, that is,

00:21:27

in the main way. The problem was that

00:21:29

in Germany all the last nuclear

00:21:31

power plants were closed. Then, in my opinion last

00:21:34

year, if I’m not mistaken, this is not an

00:21:36

unforced error, the moment when it

00:21:38

was necessary to unpack when energy prices

00:21:41

were at historical maximums, they

00:21:43

continued it. Well, again, this comes back to

00:21:46

our conversation that from the point of view of

00:21:47

Europe and America, the green transition is

00:21:50

a big one problem a a

00:21:51

BC the rest is related to oil and gas prices,

00:21:55

this is some kind of local situation

00:21:58

Kai, which is somehow being sorted out, this

00:21:59

seems to me not an unforced error

00:22:02

Thank you very much Dear

00:22:05

Oleg have a nice

00:22:08

[music]

00:22:11

day

Description:

Раз в неделю мы встречаемся с профессором экономики Калифорнийского университета в Лос-Анджелесе Олегом Ицхоки, чтобы обсудить главные события российской и мировой экономики. Международный валютный фонд дал неожиданно позитивный прогноз по российской экономике в 2024 году. Показатели даже превосходят данные от российской власти. Можно ли верить сценарию МВФ и за счет чего держится сейчас российская экономика? А в конце еще успеем поговорить об энергетике и отказе Европы от российского сжиженного газа. Купить приятный мерч Россия, Беларусь, Армения, Казахстан - https://merchmag.ru/tbs/ США и Европа - https://antidot-2.creator-spring.com/ TBS Radio iOS https://apps.apple.com/lt/app/tbs-radio/id6462826584 Android https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.antidotmedia&pcampaignid=web_share Постоянная поддержка канала подпиской на Patreon (от $3/мес) - https://www.patreon.com/plushev Постоянная поддержка подпиской на Boosty (от 400 р/мес) - https://boosty.to/plushev Разово поддержать канал трудовым рублем - https://new.donatepay.ru/@573440?goal=BS Трудовым нерублем! - https://donate.antidot-media.com/

Preparing download options

Popular

HD video

Only sound

All

* — If the video is playing in a new tab, go to it, then right-click on the video and select "Save video as..."

** — Link intended for online playback in specialized players

Questions about downloading video

How can I download "Позитивный прогноз на российскую экономику. Экономический смысл с Олегом Ицхоки" video?

http://unidownloader.com/ website is the best way to download a video or a separate audio track if you want to do without installing programs and extensions.
The UDL Helper extension is a convenient button that is seamlessly integrated into YouTube, Instagram and OK.ru sites for fast content download.
UDL Client program (for Windows) is the most powerful solution that supports more than 900 websites, social networks and video hosting sites, as well as any video quality that is available in the source.
UDL Lite is a really convenient way to access a website from your mobile device. With its help, you can easily download videos directly to your smartphone.

Which format of "Позитивный прогноз на российскую экономику. Экономический смысл с Олегом Ицхоки" video should I choose?

The best quality formats are FullHD (1080p), 2K (1440p), 4K (2160p) and 8K (4320p). The higher the resolution of your screen, the higher the video quality should be. However, there are other factors to consider: download speed, amount of free space, and device performance during playback.

Why does my computer freeze when loading a "Позитивный прогноз на российскую экономику. Экономический смысл с Олегом Ицхоки" video?

The browser/computer should not freeze completely! If this happens, please report it with a link to the video. Sometimes videos cannot be downloaded directly in a suitable format, so we have added the ability to convert the file to the desired format. In some cases, this process may actively use computer resources.

How can I download "Позитивный прогноз на российскую экономику. Экономический смысл с Олегом Ицхоки" video to my phone?

You can download a video to your smartphone using the website or the PWA application UDL Lite. It is also possible to send a download link via QR code using the UDL Helper extension.

How can I download an audio track (music) to MP3 "Позитивный прогноз на российскую экономику. Экономический смысл с Олегом Ицхоки"?

The most convenient way is to use the UDL Client program, which supports converting video to MP3 format. In some cases, MP3 can also be downloaded through the UDL Helper extension.

How can I save a frame from a video "Позитивный прогноз на российскую экономику. Экономический смысл с Олегом Ицхоки"?

This feature is available in the UDL Helper extension. Make sure that "Show the video snapshot button" is checked in the settings. A camera icon should appear in the lower right corner of the player to the left of the "Settings" icon. When you click on it, the current frame from the video will be saved to your computer in JPEG format.

What's the price of all this stuff?

It costs nothing. Our services are absolutely free for all users. There are no PRO subscriptions, no restrictions on the number or maximum length of downloaded videos.