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Фонд национального благосостояния

деньги населению

00:00:00

[music]

00:00:08

this program you stay with you

00:00:11

Mariana Minske once again hello

00:00:12

to me from the Moscow studio Artisi and

00:00:14

RBC expert in Melkumov and today with us

00:00:17

via Skype

00:00:18

from Washington in mode with te icom Doctor of

00:00:21

Economics Vladislav Inozemtsev

00:00:24

[music]

00:00:41

Vladislav low oil prices this

00:00:44

apparently for a long time, and even then for at least a year,

00:00:46

it will be below 20

00:00:48

dollars, below 30 or even much lower,

00:00:51

as you think, I think that very often there are

00:00:57

fluctuations because the value does not depend on there

00:01:07

will be any problems with new

00:01:11

mowing products for large banks and they will try not to

00:01:14

listen to the index, the end will be and

00:01:18

therefore, but in the range between twenty

00:01:28

there and the faces of 25 30 dogs, well, 2025,

00:01:32

even 30 dollars is

00:01:34

still a very low price, what

00:01:36

will happen to the oil companies, will the

00:01:37

American shale companies go bankrupt,

00:01:39

look, these are not companies closer to

00:01:47

you heavy vehicles

00:01:51

in the most difficult areas bring

00:01:55

gas to the French shelf; the practice of this is far from Canada

00:02:04

in itself,

00:02:05

but I want to say that no one is saying that

00:02:13

it seems to me that I

00:02:24

understand correctly that you are saying that this is not

00:02:26

a disaster, that is, this is not the end of the

00:02:27

oil era because, for example,

00:02:30

I got into a conversation, Mikhail Krutikhin, she

00:02:31

believes that this is the beginning of the end of the oil

00:02:33

era and in any case, prices will

00:02:35

remain at such low levels for a very, very long time.

00:02:39

What do you think and will it be acceptable as

00:02:42

economies exit due to crown of the

00:02:44

oil price crisis, we will see that

00:02:46

oil prices will rise and grow

00:02:48

seriously, or at the same level as

00:02:51

we saw a few months ago,

00:02:53

this will never happen again,

00:03:00

I think let's go with it. parts of the world

00:03:13

and the eastern one, probably someone just said that

00:03:18

even in China, coal remains

00:03:22

the basis

00:03:23

of the energy balance, or in other countries of the world,

00:03:26

that is, we didn’t even

00:03:29

survive the end of the oil era with coal in that era;

00:03:44

will shift more to those who used

00:04:21

coal from China, what are it

00:04:32

and in

00:04:36

the year I think you are crazy perhaps and I

00:04:40

will repeat simply to those states

00:04:46

that cannot afford such

00:04:48

investments high environmentally friendly

00:04:54

I started what do you think is this the end of the oil

00:04:57

era or the beginning of the end or not the

00:04:59

end at all when the Germans won the first

00:05:04

victory over the armies of the

00:05:06

Omsk Empire before the decline of the Roman Empire

00:05:10

there were still almost 500 years left, four hundred and

00:05:13

a little, can this be considered the beginning of the

00:05:16

end of the Roman Empire, well, it depends on

00:05:19

how you measure it, yes you can consider that the

00:05:22

crushing legions of the Teutoburg Forest,

00:05:24

yes indeed it was the beginning of the end, but

00:05:27

after 400 years the Roman the empire

00:05:28

ended with your help, the western part of the

00:05:30

eastern account still existed for years to

00:05:33

apply oil, but these are the beginning of the end

00:05:37

predicted to regularly apply

00:05:41

oil as a source or the main

00:05:44

source of energy in this case, maybe

00:05:49

this is not the beginning of the end at all,

00:05:51

maybe this is the movement the beginning of the end for that

00:05:53

simple the reason is that if oil

00:05:56

costs around 20

00:05:58

dollars per barrel for a long time, then why

00:06:01

actively develop new

00:06:04

energy sources if they are so cheap,

00:06:06

it just pushes aside and emulates

00:06:11

renewable energy developers, so

00:06:15

in this sense, this is precisely the factor that

00:06:18

hinders renewable energy.

00:06:21

the thing is, you know, I always

00:06:24

remember 86 when it was very similar

00:06:28

to the current situation when the guardian

00:06:31

tried to keep prices high for a very long time,

00:06:32

everyone tried to deceive them to leave at

00:06:35

the expense of Saudi Arabia, in the end

00:06:37

Saudi Arabia flooded the world

00:06:39

oil market and not a cent of the price per

00:06:41

barrel was then Lipstick fell to 8 dollars per

00:06:43

barrel and then for about 20

00:06:45

years they remained somewhere in the region of 15 and

00:06:48

25 approximately, and despite all this, the

00:06:51

North Sea, where

00:06:53

at that time the cost of production was about 40,

00:06:56

Severomorsk did not close and the oil

00:07:00

wells continued to work now

00:07:02

the situation is similar and they continued

00:07:05

to work for quite a long time

00:07:06

thanks to all sorts of different tricks

00:07:08

because because all oil

00:07:10

companies of all raw materials companies have a

00:07:13

planning horizon of the shortest 15 years, but in

00:07:15

fact they said up to 30 and therefore

00:07:18

oil companies

00:07:19

have big resources and deep

00:07:22

pockets what are they called, they can

00:07:25

survive this period of low prices, it

00:07:27

will last for a year 235 as long

00:07:31

as you like, but not as long as you want, but

00:07:32

quite a long time, another thing is that there

00:07:34

were a lot of small companies,

00:07:37

which were mainly in the shale

00:07:38

industry, and some of them will not give

00:07:41

this situation but then it just means their

00:07:43

assets will be transferred to someone else, yes,

00:07:45

Vladislav, and as for gasoline,

00:07:47

gasoline will become cheaper, do you think it’s

00:07:49

clear that even in the states it will not be

00:07:52

free, but nevertheless, reuters

00:07:54

considered that the average

00:07:56

American family can save a lot of money

00:07:57

on fuel in the next few months,

00:08:04

if I’m not mistaken, four years ago

00:08:06

they predicted gasoline for 1 cent, but

00:08:19

the principle was that oil would become cheaper

00:08:21

as new

00:08:24

technologies developed, and when I expressed it

00:08:26

very clearly, let’s return to the

00:08:32

chopping block of gasoline and manually era in this

00:08:37

case, one cannot ignore the factor

00:08:39

that usually never taken into account, let’s

00:08:42

say fashion and modernity,

00:08:47

the idea of we don’t know a piece that is expensive today in

00:08:52

America, Europe and hiding places of savings, this

00:08:56

idea of normality, this is the idea of the physical

00:09:03

environment, this moment it was the beginning of the years,

00:09:29

the directive categorically

00:09:31

they will not nor will not want oil has

00:09:33

fallen in price, so here you need to understand

00:09:35

that

00:09:36

Europe and lives, but still in the interval

00:09:40

from the Minister of Economy, a forgotten filter and

00:09:45

we return to the current price of gasoline

00:09:47

and does not depend on spirits, the main one

00:09:51

of course is taxes, changeable states, a

00:09:54

unique country in which there is no

00:10:04

oil or retail price,

00:10:11

and now you have this price so

00:10:14

I remember perfectly 91 to 98, probably 165

00:10:23

and the garden and back go to the prison, but if

00:10:27

prices react very flexibly, the cost of

00:10:30

oil refining cannot be 0,

00:10:33

so without money it will not be cheaper

00:10:34

there until 85, the plot is where

00:10:42

start-up taxes are so normal in Europe

00:10:47

and gasoline is in fact, for the treasury

00:10:52

today, Russian companies because

00:11:02

that’s why it’s natural now when the

00:11:08

price veil begins to decline because they

00:11:10

can’t have already reached it, as the lack of demand for the

00:11:13

company causes losses

00:11:15

in Europe, I think the danger and higher

00:11:19

percentages are the same in all countries, these are

00:11:22

taxes, so the question depends

00:11:32

solely on yes, that’s what concerns the

00:11:38

impact of such low

00:11:41

oil prices on the Russian economy,

00:11:43

how strong is this, how much does this

00:11:47

mean that the Russian budget will have serious problems

00:11:48

and how much worse the

00:11:52

standard of living of the Russian population will fall even lower,

00:11:56

inflation, the ruble exchange rate, unemployment,

00:12:00

these are all the factors,

00:12:01

how much is it all depends on low

00:12:04

oil prices, thought on the side and feels

00:12:14

it from them turned out to be the spirit of the game, they realized

00:12:19

this when Valera was turned,

00:12:21

this situation is now approximately now, I did

00:12:23

n’t understand that the game is a

00:12:27

problem, but I haven’t yet felt

00:12:30

the budget for 1 class versts or the big

00:12:37

princes are not yet creating how much Olga is gone

00:12:40

and the faucet is painted with shadows and everyone knows

00:12:44

that everything is not the same as any pain is not visible

00:12:48

although there probably should be but one way or

00:12:52

another everything is still in more detail the

00:12:55

question is what else is the same as

00:12:59

what it is combined with the question of what

00:13:02

will happen in a couple of months that is, if

00:13:05

the browser obviously deteriorates

00:13:08

because each budget income will be withdrawn

00:13:15

1 dollar, or given that 30 is obvious, that

00:13:27

is, functionality and property, what kind of

00:13:33

support companies will need, we

00:13:40

will see in my case, I think that insurance

00:13:44

heavy inflation is the only one that does not

00:13:48

cause me such problems

00:13:54

with competition in new products

00:13:57

There are no reasons for prices to rise; I

00:14:01

will speak out about inflation in Russia this year

00:14:03

.

00:14:04

because when you can’t justify

00:14:06

you don’t have graves, it rises

00:14:09

in this one, it’s already growing, we’re already

00:14:13

seeing an increase in the price of stores for

00:14:15

certain types of products,

00:14:16

especially for imported goods, you know, I

00:14:20

think this is the first household chain that

00:14:26

we’re on this evening, I didn’t think it

00:14:30

would be very long, this is simply because

00:14:32

there is work to continue to grow, it will actually even

00:14:36

fall, such will be that maybe

00:14:43

ventilation you again have several patents

00:14:44

for you are clearly not in the shock problem, one

00:14:47

problem will be a game to reduce income

00:14:50

because the business will fire people, the

00:14:53

possible number was a

00:14:56

budget reduction because look, it will be very

00:14:59

pinched because of the reduction in the contribution, it will

00:15:03

not be collected by

00:15:08

large amounts of its income to the budget, we will

00:15:23

receive more subventions from the center and, in

00:15:27

general, holes

00:15:30

I am from point 1 and from the point of view from the point of

00:15:37

view of a reduction in ordinary profits

00:15:44

when I think that of course the budget and

00:15:50

how to edit it will be decided on this

00:15:53

depends a lot from the point of view of

00:15:56

how and what options are there how how and it needs to be

00:16:00

decided, but I think that using

00:16:10

reserves and swiping on the nickname it

00:16:13

will go meandering temporarily, that is, it will open,

00:16:16

you can open this little bottle of anal well-being

00:16:18

of course yes, she

00:16:21

will be forced to sell currency from natural

00:16:25

distance and close the jackpot there is the other

00:16:30

side of Safonov’s cyanobacteria for a

00:16:34

big problem due to the fact that the

00:16:36

authorities certainly treat it like

00:16:40

no matches understands perfectly well in

00:16:46

general there is more to the bottom of the soul there is no

00:16:48

more budget volume

00:17:03

planned today this year it is

00:17:05

about five and a half, that is, without

00:17:09

any additional fur, I emphasize, the

00:17:12

fund will not be spent like

00:17:14

half of it, so you will be

00:17:18

afraid to the last to give money on yourself

00:17:21

does not help the business to support banks and

00:17:27

on the stage, these costs for pressing

00:17:31

began to be observed, yes exactly this will be the

00:17:34

difference between our crisis

00:17:35

and the West because it gives money back,

00:17:40

[ __ ] it

00:17:41

when the program in Germany, Britain in

00:17:46

America and the anti-crisis programs

00:17:49

propose additional budget spending

00:17:52

in our country, Mr. Kudrin, talk about

00:17:55

what this is, strictly speaking, and will go towards

00:18:04

closing the budget deficit, and this

00:18:06

absolutely different in the course because

00:18:09

what is going on is not support at all, who is just

00:18:18

there for people that it is support 10

00:18:23

percent reduction in GDP for a vampire,

00:18:26

let’s now take a closer look,

00:18:29

I’m just already confused in calculating

00:18:30

how much the Russian authorities are ready to

00:18:32

allocate to save the

00:18:33

Russian economy photo Minister

00:18:36

of Finance Anton Siluanov says that the

00:18:37

total volume of fiscal support for the

00:18:40

economy this year, taking into account

00:18:42

compensation for the fall in oil prices,

00:18:44

will amount to 6.5 percent of GDP, but

00:18:47

at the same time, an economist at Alpha Bank is

00:18:48

what we just said,

00:18:50

we calculated that direct support for

00:18:52

the economy will be

00:18:54

spent just three tenths of a

00:18:56

percent of GDP is 350 billion rubles,

00:19:00

about there, that’s quite a bit, and the

00:19:02

rest of the rest of the 1st

00:19:05

anti-crisis package is all sorts of

00:19:07

credit holidays, tax deferments and

00:19:09

government guarantees, that is, as long as it all

00:19:12

fits into the concept voiced by

00:19:14

us and Sobyanin, they shouldn’t burn their reserves.

00:19:18

the budget must be cracked if you

00:19:21

give money to everyone here, it turns out that why is it

00:19:23

dangerous not to give money directly

00:19:26

to the population and how much should be

00:19:28

spent, ideally

00:19:30

attacking to save the Russian economy, these are the

00:19:32

two questions why not give it,

00:19:40

this can be raised as obvious

00:19:49

because people simply stopped buying

00:19:55

after withdrawal of urgent purchases and this

00:20:04

will simply mean that in the economy, in

00:20:06

silence, money is not needed, the swords of workers and

00:20:10

I will

00:20:12

say, let’s say, a pen on everyone and

00:20:16

which already, but as far as I understand,

00:20:20

the authorities are betting on state employees,

00:20:22

who are almost 80 percent and who, in

00:20:25

principle, have income there everything is in order,

00:20:26

the state pays them, so they

00:20:29

will walk in the visible

00:20:30

side because the

00:20:46

school named after the river is visible from the river about the seriousness of

00:20:55

consumption and this will be a serious

00:20:58

factor in the problems, I only wish that

00:21:04

the printers could leave, I was very

00:21:06

glad, in fact, I also don’t want the

00:21:09

artists the economy was

00:21:10

collapsing, people lived worse, no one

00:21:12

wants to be at home

00:21:13

with changing people, but one way or another it

00:21:17

seems to me that it will still be hard to survive cleanly, I want to,

00:21:22

just I think that

00:21:24

if state employees receive everything like

00:21:26

they received the market sector of the words

00:21:29

Konstantin yours, then this is what it is 10

00:21:32

percent along the river because look,

00:21:36

even state employees can receive everything, but

00:21:38

pay attention to the formatting bush, I

00:21:43

ensure that

00:21:45

last year the export of oil gun will be

00:21:49

divided into 170 billion yard,

00:21:52

this is 10 trillion rubles, even more would be

00:21:57

the station that today it will fall well in

00:21:59

two again ions and went they went into the economy as a

00:22:06

metallurgist who is not cubic zirconia, they

00:22:09

went to transport workers who carry to

00:22:14

ports and so on, the effect will be very much

00:22:18

if everyone is a policeman, so I think

00:22:25

it’s like

00:22:27

how much money is needed; the economy is surrounded,

00:22:31

yes, in order to move away from that by saying

00:22:35

what place in the economy they will be

00:22:37

reset the closer to the bottom

00:22:40

you throw away this money and you need

00:22:42

less

00:22:43

simply because the losses will be

00:22:46

minimal. you let them

00:22:48

question these pensions, increase

00:22:54

the allowance, spend this money, in fact,

00:22:57

all the rings in the store go to if you give the

00:23:12

currency market a rest and and runs away.

00:23:20

if you give money to Sakhalin, but a

00:23:24

similar effect, so the question, which

00:23:35

means it depends on how the

00:23:37

rights are collected, if you are going, I

00:23:41

think that let’s read the very same ones for a

00:23:46

week, it’s in idle mode,

00:23:56

do you think there will be such people sitting there, it’s

00:24:01

at least three patents purely on losses from

00:24:10

real sectors from falling and bringing

00:24:26

this money to small businesses without subscriptions,

00:24:30

this situation can straighten out the office

00:24:35

economy and bring it into the party, but it doesn’t know how,

00:24:39

besides, it’s just the fault of the

00:24:41

national welfare fund, look, I

00:24:45

again don’t understand, first of all, why

00:24:46

everyone is so fixated on the background of the country was the

00:24:49

state smells wonderful, let’s say

00:24:52

that

00:24:54

and the entire entire volume of American aid will be

00:24:59

implemented, it’s interesting on the crooked end,

00:25:02

look at it, I don’t understand, I don’t hear a

00:25:05

single answer on this topic, why,

00:25:07

for example, because in this situation they won’t

00:25:18

go to the budget they won’t

00:25:21

additional budgets are soldered quietly

00:25:23

exactly in Texas, such that there will be your

00:25:26

frosts, I understood why there should be a

00:25:29

jump if we just carry out the

00:25:32

gentry’s plans and it’s not clear why, if

00:25:35

we just pull it out for

00:25:37

two years, I don’t have these, why not the National Security Service, but it’s better to

00:25:43

borrow money from the central bank, it’s better to

00:25:45

do both, in my opinion,

00:25:48

first of all, because the fund is still

00:25:50

finite and whatever the case may be, it will spend

00:25:53

sleep in one year or two;

00:25:55

in general, this is not so important

00:25:57

because we don’t know what will happen in 2

00:25:59

years and whether it will we have 2 or

00:26:00

some other 3 korando waves of

00:26:02

coronavirus, but what Vladislav says

00:26:06

about loans is a completely reasonable

00:26:09

thing, another thing is that something to find, what is

00:26:12

allowed to Jupiter is not allowed to the bull,

00:26:14

this was a Roman proverb, what the

00:26:16

American government can afford,

00:26:17

having a very deep and a

00:26:20

very extensive financial market

00:26:23

cannot always afford the Russian

00:26:25

government, the American government

00:26:27

can raise money on the market among

00:26:29

investors and this will not happen, although the

00:26:32

Federal Reserve System has been introduced there, it

00:26:34

will buy a significant part of these

00:26:36

securities from the market and there it will not threaten

00:26:39

high inflation or what - with such

00:26:41

terrible consequences of the Russian

00:26:43

situation, you need to spend the National Welfare Fund, although for

00:26:46

this you need to change the budget rule

00:26:48

and borrow money from the market that will

00:26:50

support the central bank, another

00:26:52

question in this I completely agree with

00:26:55

Vladislav is the question of where this money

00:26:57

will go

00:26:58

because in theory I will continue to

00:27:01

say the same and the thoughts are tighter and tighter, there are 2

00:27:04

different aspects, there is a humanitarian aspect

00:27:06

when you need to save simply from lack of money

00:27:09

and hunger those people who have lost their

00:27:11

sources of income and these people are at

00:27:13

least 20 million people, there is an

00:27:16

economic aspect,

00:27:17

but first, at the moment, you

00:27:20

still need to take care of people because

00:27:22

if we don’t take care of them, then either they

00:27:24

will go to steal, rob and kill

00:27:26

some of them, or they will

00:27:29

die of hunger, another part of them, and

00:27:31

this naturally the situation is unacceptable and

00:27:34

Vladislav, why is the Russian

00:27:36

government against

00:27:37

distributing money directly to the population how

00:27:40

this is done, for example, in America and in

00:27:42

other countries in European countries,

00:27:43

too, that is, we and German Gref

00:27:46

Elvira Nabiullina speak out so that

00:27:48

the population should not count on helicopter

00:27:50

money, that this is generally not the most

00:27:52

relevant tool, and so on, and

00:27:54

so far we do not see this but on the other

00:27:56

hand, we see already in Vladikavkaz,

00:27:59

when hundreds of people came out to a rally

00:28:01

against the very isolation there, the reasons for this are

00:28:03

that people are sitting without money and without

00:28:05

work and don’t feel that the government is

00:28:08

somehow helping them in this situation, it’s

00:28:10

just money that I I can’t answer, I’ll

00:28:22

come, I want to return to the question from the

00:28:27

argument is not correct and the fact is that if

00:28:30

you look at the statistics,

00:28:32

you will see that the American

00:28:34

government over the last month has not

00:28:36

quite absorbed a single issue of

00:28:39

new bonds, the

00:28:41

entire volume of aid, which was the

00:28:49

entire volume of Russian the central bank

00:28:58

can do the same thing again

00:29:05

[music] is

00:29:07

that the money is simply either in the

00:29:12

cash register at six percent, this is a very long time,

00:29:15

but again this is very funny, the simple

00:29:17

reason is that the budget bearers are

00:29:35

not technical at all, not comical, as for

00:29:39

why not they want to give

00:29:42

to people, because I think that there is not 1

00:29:47

UAH here, it concludes that it will appear, even if not the

00:29:52

first steps, that is, the whole history of recent years, it

00:29:56

shows one thing: to show that any

00:30:00

close businessman is a corrupt official,

00:30:04

anyone, a lot of power individually,

00:30:10

but if you go out and get absolutely

00:30:17

nothing, this is the greatest

00:30:24

he is collectively deaf to Putin 10 and very precisely for this reason

00:30:33

now giving in to the demands of the

00:30:39

Caucasian rally is extremely dangerous from the

00:30:42

point of view of the logic of the system and therefore I

00:30:48

think that it is precisely because once,

00:30:56

but it definitely won’t be, but again it will be worse and

00:30:59

so as

00:31:04

not to communicate further with the mini mass

00:31:07

demands is a big problem,

00:31:08

which today

00:31:10

of course makes itself felt in our country, as for the

00:31:12

consequences for the global economy, the

00:31:14

consequences of the corona crisis and

00:31:17

quarantines are already with many comparing

00:31:20

this corona crisis with the great depression

00:31:22

in the 30s, which was in the states

00:31:25

here you are we agree with this, the same

00:31:28

consequences await the

00:31:29

world economy, no one will tell you

00:31:32

now this is unequivocal in that the twenty-

00:31:36

ninth year of

00:31:43

the crisis, the ideal budget states

00:31:46

were in surplus,

00:31:48

today we have a higher education in the fourth year,

00:32:01

so now economic assistance is

00:32:13

thick so the diet is therefore the overall effect

00:32:19

of grazing for an impossible long time and we we don’t understand

00:32:25

at all if we look at the only thing

00:32:32

we saw but I so this poplin they

00:32:40

will come out is

00:32:43

impossible that the weather along with but well

00:33:17

let’s try to predict

00:33:19

let’s say the crisis will last another two months

00:33:21

how long will it take to get out of this

00:33:23

what do you think there is no more hunger year

00:33:30

after year that is I was like this from the moment I

00:33:33

completely remove my renunciations from the point

00:33:36

of view of quarantine,

00:33:37

nothing is a border message so on

00:33:40

after twelve miles for a long time level

00:33:46

in general about the corona virus Oleg Deripaska

00:33:48

not so long ago called it a biological

00:33:52

Chernobyl and wrote in an article about

00:33:54

what everyone really wants to know where did

00:33:56

this virus even come from and you know now there are

00:33:58

a lot of conspiracy theories

00:34:00

that I personally don’t adhere to,

00:34:02

nevertheless they exist, what is this

00:34:04

China’s retaliatory secret weapon in response

00:34:06

to the trade war with the United States, that’s how you

00:34:09

feel about these theories, well, I know

00:34:15

well adequate wanderings and

00:34:26

correctly because there was a draft

00:34:30

result to use the same thing I

00:34:37

think it was their China but he created

00:34:49

a weapon and as a result of which workers and it

00:35:10

will probably be warmer I’m flying earlier the

00:35:13

first stage but this effect is recklessness

00:35:24

here it is naturally draft 1 pie they

00:35:35

and then it begins of course the problem is

00:35:38

when you are already tied up between the organization

00:35:43

the same with China very late

00:35:46

reaction very little information typically

00:35:51

malicious intent I am here below

00:35:54

if the Chinese were turquoise we have 500

00:36:04

people a rich Chinese and then send

00:36:10

but still it is not so they are people to do the

00:36:18

same no one and did not create a virus in

00:36:20

China so that,

00:36:23

well, from an economic point of view, in

00:36:25

such strict quarantine measures as

00:36:28

we are now traveling around the world, they are

00:36:29

justified, as you think, economically,

00:36:32

of course not, but but you know this is very

00:36:39

quickly the fact that the

00:36:43

economy has serious work on the ground,

00:36:50

rated 4 pictures today I think that

00:37:02

here

00:37:03

and humane considerations they have united

00:37:07

the understanding that this is up, especially since

00:37:11

again, making decisions quickly,

00:37:20

they have the possibility of some very distant

00:37:23

miscalculations like what and why there probably

00:37:27

weren’t, so you can just sit that

00:37:29

it was done and find out something - then it

00:37:34

will change in life in the economy in

00:37:37

everyday life after quarantine or

00:37:39

quarantine it will be like this in the general

00:37:41

corona crazy it will be such a

00:37:42

watershed such a point

00:37:44

after which everything will change or

00:37:47

we will return to normal life to ordinary life

00:37:48

as if nothing had happened you understand

00:37:51

the most probably interesting the question on the one

00:37:54

hand, of course,

00:37:55

nothing can change, I think

00:37:58

that there are many who have

00:38:06

mobility from home, this will certainly

00:38:12

change, I don’t think that communication, so

00:38:29

accept, it will be impossible for what people

00:38:32

live for, if I think that this will all

00:38:39

be restored, we went beyond some limits

00:38:49

that consumption is possible, so it is a

00:38:54

large consumption of the latter and you cannot

00:39:00

count on it to remain the same,

00:39:03

but you understand this consumption of

00:39:07

recreation centers structures 1 people worked

00:39:11

all over the world, people bodybuilders, people

00:39:23

who work in the banking sector, well,

00:39:26

that is, in all possible sectors of

00:39:27

the economy, people worked under this model of

00:39:30

consumption is the hope of most of us,

00:39:34

there is no problem of ours to reduce our expenses

00:39:37

by a percentage more to cook

00:39:43

at home on airplanes, there are no problems with the Internet,

00:39:48

but what will those millions of people

00:39:50

who serve the compartment do,

00:39:53

this line will now strive to the

00:39:58

same scale because but Paul does not know

00:40:03

another one to exist in recent years,

00:40:05

actually,

00:40:08

no,

00:40:11

and what will all these people do?

00:40:13

What kind of options do they have? What do you

00:40:14

think? I thought there were actually

00:40:17

few options, because if we look at what was

00:40:20

just

00:40:21

happening and not the structure of the labor force,

00:40:24

appreciate it from the eighties I saw

00:40:26

that all this huge influx is

00:40:29

industry, all the services that are tasked

00:40:32

instead of him for me to divide into 20 25 years

00:40:35

for this in their rice, huge changes and

00:40:40

oil and the 70s 90s and globalization,

00:40:51

I think that we can count on the fact that everything will

00:40:54

easily change in 23 year is completely

00:40:58

impossible because it may not take off

00:41:05

so well, if we talk about the economy,

00:41:10

then I think that there will be some

00:41:14

fundamental rethinking; another

00:41:17

question is how far they will go,

00:41:19

first of all, with regard to

00:41:20

production chains

00:41:22

when over the last 50-60 years

00:41:25

globalization has led to the fact that the

00:41:28

production process is once concentrated

00:41:29

across the globe

00:41:33

and this is what is called frequent delivery time,

00:41:37

this has become part of the production

00:41:38

processes of many when, say, the

00:41:40

iPhone is designed in America,

00:41:42

assembled, manufactured and in China

00:41:45

additional spare parts are supplied there

00:41:48

from a lot of other countries and then it will be

00:41:49

sold in Europe, this system will be

00:41:52

rethought and possibly changed and will

00:41:54

also be called rows of cycles of some

00:41:57

production processes, this is what

00:41:59

concerns the economy, it seems to me that

00:42:01

very serious

00:42:03

social or even

00:42:05

psychological processes may arise, and one of them is a sharp

00:42:08

increase such right-wing populism and

00:42:12

xenophobia, and we are already seeing this

00:42:15

when the borders are closed, when even in

00:42:18

the USA,

00:42:19

Louisiana does not allow people and

00:42:22

sex with them, because it means that

00:42:24

they are considered to bring infection,

00:42:25

when the Chinese in Europe

00:42:28

were looked at with great suspicion at the very beginning,

00:42:30

otherwise there is hostility, or the last thing

00:42:32

I heard was when in a car with

00:42:34

Moscow license plates that drove into the

00:42:36

Vladimir region, they started throwing stones at him,

00:42:37

saying something, the computer

00:42:39

came here to bring an infection, so

00:42:41

xenophobia at different levels, it can

00:42:43

very strongly renew and intensify, this

00:42:46

can lead to serious consequences

00:42:48

political, well, another political

00:42:50

consequence, which is also still so

00:42:52

purely hypothetical, in my opinion, the

00:42:55

mass of people will have a lot of questions

00:42:58

for their authorities and for the upper

00:43:01

authorities, and for the local authorities,

00:43:02

because the mass of people, well, in very

00:43:05

many countries, felt

00:43:07

protected and suddenly it turned out that they were

00:43:10

not protected by anything and they saw the

00:43:12

confusion of the authorities, they saw

00:43:14

belated actions and when the

00:43:17

acute phase of the crisis ends, what will these

00:43:21

people want to say about their authorities and

00:43:24

how will they want to deal with them? This is

00:43:26

still an open question and it seems to me that if

00:43:28

characteristics of the last 2 3

00:43:30

years it is some very interesting thing

00:43:34

2017 USA winner for 10 Internet

00:43:41

of if the trend continues next

00:43:50

year Mexico will have a much

00:44:06

industrial base in the American

00:44:08

case and the basis of

00:44:31

information propaganda and so on and therefore of course

00:44:36

no one will isolate themselves from China will look, they will try and it’s

00:44:40

delicious, but as for the authorities, yes,

00:44:50

probably many people will be disappointed

00:44:53

that the authorities could not, although to be honest, I do

00:44:55

n’t overestimate it a little,

00:45:02

I can come to me with another problem, I

00:45:05

just helped you people, they imposed a fine

00:45:09

on them, they conditionally

00:45:13

got the paintings regulation

00:45:23

I think that most likely with that I would

00:45:29

quickly forget about my

00:45:32

additional authority, so to speak, I’m here if they

00:45:34

try to use some corner

00:45:35

I was upgraded information

00:45:38

received the authority to give

00:45:40

clamping let it be given to the people themselves I think

00:45:44

that here it’s also a very big problem,

00:45:50

you also already said this:

00:45:51

unemployment, these are millions of people

00:45:54

all over the world and in the states and in other countries

00:45:56

and in Russia, too, what to do with this, it

00:46:01

will be different everywhere because it’s 9

00:46:09

11 percent of the sixties this year

00:46:21

0 8 8 percent is an [ __ ] and a typo of

00:46:31

Astakhov’s systems and put enough

00:46:36

enough and in this regard, duvushki

00:46:43

in mit uns this is a stranger phenomenon

00:46:47

because such 80 naturally it

00:47:00

will put pressure on the address of the testimony and the

00:47:04

labor market with all that it essentially entails as for

00:47:06

let’s say in Russia there are

00:47:11

unemployed here you are doing that they are not to be

00:47:13

distributed and somehow it will

00:47:20

develop since we already had experience of

00:47:28

this kind of situation, the employee did not think

00:47:30

this is actually the consequences, moreover, I

00:47:33

expressed that in general the

00:47:34

prospects and not as it seems

00:47:44

because if we look at the entire

00:47:46

post-Soviet space, then I now I

00:47:49

can’t remember a single case,

00:47:52

tell me when they gave a big one, we

00:47:59

saw a lot of cases causing protests

00:48:01

with the agony of choice, friends Belarus and Ukraine

00:48:06

twice Russia in relation to some

00:48:18

drinkers, a case of automatic murders from

00:48:25

this situation when people figure in

00:48:40

Georgia were not there for years and the quality

00:48:43

warmth in winter and that we didn’t see any

00:48:47

speeches against there slay welded in

00:48:50

Abkhazia

00:48:51

against Shevardnadze but we

00:48:53

or the introduction with demands there and

00:48:55

comical and you understand that they

00:48:59

taught you this is how Putin told his

00:49:01

one step that and who could be

00:49:03

more responsible the goal is not stepped

00:49:05

it thinks not only about the people in general, it

00:49:08

remains in that same impression and that

00:49:11

is there really an increase in

00:49:15

oil prices have fallen and so on,

00:49:24

objectively the moment when people have nothing to

00:49:27

eat and they have no income they are not busy with

00:49:30

political issues at all they are

00:49:31

busy with the issue of snatching out we this

00:49:33

was seen in 1998. 14 another thing is that

00:49:36

after some time after

00:49:38

more or less everything returns to normal, the

00:49:41

sediment remains, as they say, and what do

00:49:43

these people begin to do next and how do

00:49:45

they begin to relate to their

00:49:47

government? This applies not only to the

00:49:49

post-Soviet space this also applies to

00:49:51

democratic countries, first of all,

00:49:53

maybe this is a completely different question and the fact

00:49:57

that in the days of democratic countries

00:50:00

is decided in the squares

00:50:01

or within the framework of palace conspiracies in

00:50:04

democratic countries is decided in a more

00:50:06

civilized way, but in which

00:50:08

direction this pendulum will swing, will

00:50:11

it swing towards right-wing populism and

00:50:12

Will he blame everything on the migrants

00:50:15

who took our places or all their

00:50:18

native rulers? This is another question. They

00:50:20

introduced a bastard and you sent and in

00:50:23

conclusion, your recommendations, your

00:50:26

forecasts, recommendations on what people should do for those who

00:50:29

still have some savings left, what to

00:50:31

invest in, maybe like something to save

00:50:33

or increase for those who have lost their jobs,

00:50:36

what to do now and here are your forecasts

00:50:38

when the pie will end this is all we are

00:50:41

now seeing corona crisis quarantine

00:50:43

and

00:50:44

what will happen to the world economy with

00:50:45

oil with currencies recommendations I would

00:50:53

say

00:50:54

to the maximum to fall attributed to the minimum

00:50:58

spend try saving for as

00:51:00

long as possible to survive in such

00:51:02

conditions, no investment is now,

00:51:05

of course, impossible and not necessary, simply

00:51:07

because the situation is very unstable,

00:51:09

if there are any means,

00:51:11

of course, now I’ll buy dollars and

00:51:15

euros because we saw it, but in case it’s kind of

00:51:26

beneficial,

00:51:27

I think that now no decisions are

00:51:32

extremely dangerous

00:51:33

as for I think that I would say that

00:51:41

after your most beautiful there will also be

00:51:49

a winner on probably those days of summer there will be

00:51:53

some boundaries will start again I

00:51:55

message that is, it will return to

00:51:57

relatively normal but significant

00:52:04

simply because society is not

00:52:10

longer closed, don’t you know, victory day,

00:52:14

the vaccine is a treatment, infotag, but otherwise

00:52:20

it will be in scale so as

00:52:25

not to be afraid, so now

00:52:28

until the next year will be below 30, no,

00:52:32

I think by the end of the year it will not be like that,

00:52:39

about ten, it’s clear, thank you very much

00:52:46

Vladislav it was Vladislav inozemtsev

00:52:48

and you hold on

00:52:54

[music]

Description:

Гость программы «Вы держитесь!» на RTVI — экономист, доктор экономических наук Владислав Иноземцев. В интервью Марианне Минскер он рассказал: 📌 Чем российский кризис на фоне пандемии отличается от западного 📌 Как поменяются цены на нефть и бензин в ближайший год 📌 Что заставит Кремль открыть Фонд национального благосостояния 📌 Почему российское правительство против прямой раздачи денег населению Если устали от новостей, подписывайтесь на наш второй канал: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC5HsrtwsFgFBG_JHxuoUieA Новые выпуски «На троих» — здесь. Подписывайтесь, чтобы не пропустить! https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC56By-Pj2wWC99s0I6yRK5g Читайте и смотрите новости на сайте RTVI: https://rtvi.com/ Также все самое важное и интересное смотрите в нашем телеграм-канале: https://t.me/rtvimain И подписывайтесь на RTVI в других социальных сетях: Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/unsupportedbrowser ВКонтакте: http://vk.com/rtvi Твиттер: http://twitter.com/rtvi Instagram: https://www.facebook.com/unsupportedbrowser Одноклассники: https://ok.ru/rtvi А еще у нас есть телеграм-канал рубрики «Такое» с новостями из мира музыки, кино и интернета: https://t.me/rtvireal И паблик «Такого» ВКонтакте: https://vk.com/takoe_rtvi

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UDL Lite is a really convenient way to access a website from your mobile device. With its help, you can easily download videos directly to your smartphone.

Which format of "Владислав Иноземцев: «Правительство пока не осознает, насколько у людей мало денег» // Вы держитесь!" video should I choose?

The best quality formats are FullHD (1080p), 2K (1440p), 4K (2160p) and 8K (4320p). The higher the resolution of your screen, the higher the video quality should be. However, there are other factors to consider: download speed, amount of free space, and device performance during playback.

Why does my computer freeze when loading a "Владислав Иноземцев: «Правительство пока не осознает, насколько у людей мало денег» // Вы держитесь!" video?

The browser/computer should not freeze completely! If this happens, please report it with a link to the video. Sometimes videos cannot be downloaded directly in a suitable format, so we have added the ability to convert the file to the desired format. In some cases, this process may actively use computer resources.

How can I download "Владислав Иноземцев: «Правительство пока не осознает, насколько у людей мало денег» // Вы держитесь!" video to my phone?

You can download a video to your smartphone using the website or the PWA application UDL Lite. It is also possible to send a download link via QR code using the UDL Helper extension.

How can I download an audio track (music) to MP3 "Владислав Иноземцев: «Правительство пока не осознает, насколько у людей мало денег» // Вы держитесь!"?

The most convenient way is to use the UDL Client program, which supports converting video to MP3 format. In some cases, MP3 can also be downloaded through the UDL Helper extension.

How can I save a frame from a video "Владислав Иноземцев: «Правительство пока не осознает, насколько у людей мало денег» // Вы держитесь!"?

This feature is available in the UDL Helper extension. Make sure that "Show the video snapshot button" is checked in the settings. A camera icon should appear in the lower right corner of the player to the left of the "Settings" icon. When you click on it, the current frame from the video will be saved to your computer in JPEG format.

What's the price of all this stuff?

It costs nothing. Our services are absolutely free for all users. There are no PRO subscriptions, no restrictions on the number or maximum length of downloaded videos.