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Subtitles
Russian
00:00:01
economy this year Oh, I hope we don’t00:00:04
lose our future I two heard00:00:06
another word starting with the letter P we were mistaken we were00:00:10
mistaken you want to live smarter spin around00:00:12
like this September popcorn put aside climb00:00:15
into the screen uniforms with you What will happen00:00:17
to Russia the day after tomorrow00:00:22
[music ]00:00:25
[applause]00:00:28
[music]00:00:30
with you Marianna Minsker You stay with00:00:34
me Doctor of Economics Dean of the00:00:36
Faculty of Economics of Lomonosov Moscow State University00:00:38
Alexander Auzan Alexander00:00:41
Alexandrovich We are meeting00:00:43
in December, it’s time to sum up some00:00:46
results, now it’s fashionable to choose the word of00:00:48
the year Whatever in one word You could00:00:51
describe everything that happened this year with the00:00:53
Russian economy,00:00:55
the word self-survival, in my opinion, is00:00:58
so accurate because there may even be an00:01:04
unexpected fact that needs to be discussed. The00:01:06
Russian economy survived, it did not00:01:09
collapse, as many00:01:12
economists foresaw, it must be said, but it Happened This is due to00:01:16
that that inside the00:01:20
business economy, inside people, they found00:01:24
the strength that allowed them to do what was00:01:27
done, so00:01:28
survival itself, this is the result of the year00:01:31
two, I heard another word with the letter P,00:01:34
fire, you said in the context that fires00:01:38
did not happen to the Russian economy.00:01:41
What did you mean, what could have happened?00:01:43
let's speculate00:01:45
I want to immediately admit that not all00:01:49
economists were probably those who00:01:51
predicted otherwise, but many, including00:01:56
me, in March, when00:01:57
we looked ahead, we saw a much more00:02:01
pessimistic picture, those scenarios00:02:04
that I read in March were the future scenario00:02:07
because I was optimistic, they were00:02:10
much worse than that as happened in00:02:13
real life, we were mistaken, we were mistaken00:02:17
because00:02:18
it seemed to us that there were00:02:21
several factors that could00:02:23
lead to a collapse,00:02:26
the main one is the rupture of00:02:28
supply chains,00:02:31
imagine the force of the sanctions blow00:02:33
by the first of July, imports fell to 4000:02:38
percent, which is00:02:41
two and a half times a00:02:44
huge drop hole,00:02:46
how can the economy survive in these conditions?00:02:49
These are mysterious things, but it00:02:51
survived. The00:02:54
second circumstance was clear: the00:02:57
pressure of the sanctions had already begun in March to00:03:01
reduce production, reduce00:03:03
supply, the00:03:05
usual crisis. Which application is falling;00:03:08
demand is falling because of this; the00:03:10
application is falling again; demand is falling; spiral;00:03:13
this is how it works.00:03:14
not a break in supply chains,00:03:19
not a crisis spiral, did not lead to00:03:24
a disaster, this is very interesting, what kind of00:03:27
anomaly is this really, the ruble is not in00:03:30
space, GDP fell lower than expected00:03:33
inflation was not prohibitive, and we all00:03:35
saw very well that at one time the00:03:37
economy of Argentina, Venezuela, Turkey was in a fever,00:03:39
the same thing firstly,00:03:42
this is a good result, it does not mean that00:03:46
our economy is the same as it was in00:03:48
February00:03:49
because it is a surrogate economy,00:03:53
a lot has been replaced there,00:03:56
sometimes replaced with goods and services00:03:59
that are worse in quality than what was00:04:02
in many cases,00:04:04
the assortment is lower, of course, and00:04:08
sometimes there are quite a few holes left painful00:04:11
if we talk, for example, about the shortage of00:04:13
oncological drugs in the provinces, these are00:04:16
tragic things, these may be00:04:18
small holes, but they may turn out to be00:04:21
for people,00:04:23
so the00:04:25
economy as a whole stood still, why in00:04:29
March,00:04:32
let’s say the head of the Accounts Chamber Alexy00:04:35
Kudrin, he00:04:36
predicted that the gross product would fall00:04:40
by 1000:04:41
and we publicly the chambers generally agreed,00:04:45
but among themselves they said that00:04:48
in general it was more likely to be 15 And maybe even00:04:51
closer to 20, the00:04:55
expectation was more gloomy00:04:58
10 percent is difficult but also not00:05:03
fatal But 20 is already social00:05:07
tension, let’s say social explosions00:05:10
are possible because 20 percent of the00:05:12
fall already on the same scale as we00:05:15
had in Russia in the early 90s, that’s where the00:05:18
heavy sword already begins. But you can have a00:05:20
small car, these 20 percent00:05:21
minus 20 percent of GDP. This means for people the00:05:26
loss of jobs and businesses. Because00:05:29
you see a decrease in00:05:32
income in Russia people bear it quite00:05:36
calmly. I want to remind you that after00:05:40
Crimea, from 14 to 18, people’s income fell00:05:44
by 10 percent and that’s00:05:48
okay. Well, wow. But if a person00:05:52
loses his00:05:54
business or job, then he has lost his status,00:06:00
he has lost00:06:01
his future, he is a waste of breeding,00:06:05
these are diseases, things like that00:06:09
they thought that it would be Well, probably 10 and maybe00:06:13
more, and now you can see in December00:06:15
three and a half percent Why,00:06:18
let’s go00:06:21
step by step, first00:06:24
in Russia there00:06:26
is a market economy and it works00:06:30
Yes, it’s skewed with low competitiveness00:06:34
with big government ears, but it00:06:37
has shown itself to be what it is We have had a00:06:40
market economy for 30 years. We00:06:45
have had no illusions about a market economy since the 90s, because there00:06:49
were very high hopes for the market in the early00:06:51
90s, it was believed that all problems00:06:53
would be solved by the market, because the market would00:06:57
establish balance,00:07:01
entrepreneurship would flourish. high incomes00:07:04
turned out that the market00:07:06
restores equilibrium at a completely00:07:07
unnecessarily high level;00:07:10
economists have the concept of poor equilibrium00:07:12
with high monopolization of00:07:16
concentration of production, high00:07:20
transaction costs, that is, the forces of00:07:23
friction in the economy,00:07:25
equilibrium in the markets is established at a00:07:27
low level and everyone was disappointed, but00:07:30
still we must admit that the market can do00:07:33
many things, even like the state can do and the00:07:36
market can do I love the statement of00:07:38
one Nobel winner years ago, in my opinion this00:07:40
was a sticker that said choosing between the00:07:43
market and the state acted like that00:07:46
ancient Roman emperor who00:07:48
had to judge the competition of two Singers and upon hearing the00:07:52
first singer immediately awarded the00:07:54
second one the00:07:56
market is bad coped with their00:07:58
tasks, but the state does it even worse.00:08:00
This is what we all saw in the00:08:05
2000s, first about the market, then under00:08:08
the state, and00:08:11
apparently we didn’t realize that the market00:08:13
economy works, it worked, what does that00:08:16
mean? After00:08:18
all, at first, how00:08:22
economists tried to persist in their delusions, I mean I will00:08:25
speak to myself when talking to top managers00:08:27
I say Well, we thought you had a reserve for00:08:31
3 months And you probably have six. You00:08:34
probably created large reserves when Covid happened00:08:38
because00:08:40
supply chains are developing, not three months as00:08:44
you expected, as she says00:08:48
three months was enough we found replacements00:08:52
worse not so not Everything was found00:08:56
three months were enough for us In order to develop00:09:00
this applies even to quite complex00:09:03
technological problems because let’s say in00:09:06
digital companies if in March April00:09:10
I say everything this is no longer possible everyone00:09:12
forgot in Russia never again in the00:09:15
fall they started saying you know this It turned out to be very00:09:18
difficult00:09:19
that a business is functional00:09:22
when00:09:24
it is not interfered with, but I want to say that00:09:27
the government, from my point of view,00:09:29
especially the Central Bank, acted00:09:31
very professionally because of what they00:09:34
did. They extinguished the main00:09:38
danger of financial collapse at the beginning00:09:41
by refusing the convertibility of the ruble, but00:09:44
at the same time, Well done to00:09:46
our graduates on the team00:09:49
They did not give the Central Bank a00:09:51
floating exchange rate of the ruble, they00:09:54
isolated it so that00:09:57
capital flight did not occur, but the market00:09:59
mechanisms of work did they gradually release them00:10:03
and the rest is done by business.00:10:09
If you are not involved in politics,00:10:11
politics is involved in you, said the00:10:13
French thinker of the 19th century for00:10:16
economics, this phrase is still more relevant And00:10:18
the economy of the 21st century is developing through00:10:21
neural networks and artificial intelligence00:10:23
self-service cash register delivery robots00:10:25
and even self-driving cars were00:10:28
created by data sentists This allows you to00:10:30
automate manual labor The average00:10:33
salary of such specialists in Russia00:10:34
starts from 200 thousand rubles and00:10:38
every year the demand for them is only growing I00:10:40
recommend it to you master this profession at the00:10:43
skillfactory online school on the course date00:10:46
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details are at the link in the description;00:11:41
now I want to say about the behavior of00:11:44
the population; it also turned out to be00:11:45
unpredictable; why this spiral00:11:47
was interrupted by a00:11:49
drop in demand and supply fell00:11:54
And retail trade turnover fell But people did00:11:58
not switch to the so-called00:12:00
saving behavior, they did not save00:12:02
for a rainy day, they are juicier00:12:05
that the black did not come,00:12:06
demand remained quite high in00:12:11
May and June and July and then00:12:17
economic optimism00:12:20
was also supported by what we will say, we do not connect00:12:25
these ordinary events, but00:12:30
contract battalions were recruited00:12:32
mainly in depressed regions, and when in a00:12:36
region where the average salary,00:12:38
God forbid, is 40 thousand,00:12:39
they offered 200, of course, from 150 and above, then of00:12:45
course the family has completely00:12:47
different expectations and neither one family and also00:12:51
compensation for injury for death, and so00:12:54
on and so on, so there were00:12:56
requests for a mortgage to purchase00:13:00
real estate where this had never00:13:02
happened in the00:13:04
fall, in the fall, of course, the mobilization00:13:09
sobered up, I would say,00:13:12
but00:13:17
it was even postponed. Yes,00:13:20
perhaps now we have rather switched to00:13:22
saving behavior because00:13:25
after mobilization, they generally stopped00:13:27
buying anything except food and00:13:29
special uniforms,00:13:33
no losses, nothing, but we must00:13:36
take into account that other factors have appeared00:13:39
that00:13:40
support the behavior of the population00:13:45
mobilized to pay money, the00:13:48
military industry is growing on00:13:51
mobilization orders. Therefore,00:13:53
cities such as Izhevsk,00:13:56
Kirov, Perm, where In general, for many years,00:14:03
the corresponding the enterprises00:14:05
did not receive very much. Of course, the00:14:08
New Man mobilization order program of course means00:14:11
jobs and income, so it turns00:14:15
out that this machine is spinning, but of course I would00:14:19
be very careful in my assessments,00:14:21
firstly, what will happen next? Yes, we00:14:23
’ll talk about that now, you just said that00:14:25
everything it’s really about adapting the00:14:27
business population. And what is00:14:29
this adaptation? Do you want to live in00:14:31
the mind, or does a person get used to everything?00:14:35
This is a really important question: do00:14:38
you want to live most of all because00:14:43
adaptations can be different, we got scared00:14:45
and are waiting to see00:14:50
how it will go?00:14:53
No, not such an active adaptation is00:14:56
active because, well, what should a business do?00:14:59
They stitched together these same chains that were broken00:15:04
later so that the market mechanism00:15:06
works. That you don’t have to ask00:15:08
your beloved’s permission. My phrase from Daniil00:15:12
verges that in Russia you can do a00:15:13
lot if you don’t ask permission.00:15:16
They’ve done a lot.00:15:18
Therefore,00:15:19
yes, it00:15:21
may be unexpected, but this00:15:25
is the result, I will repeat once again, the00:15:30
current economy is really weaker00:15:33
than the one that was before, this is not an00:15:36
economic recovery, but this is a00:15:40
feat of labor and an entrepreneur, and you and00:15:43
other economists did not imagine that the00:15:46
population of business would00:15:48
behave like this the message will be so adapted00:15:51
to me, this reproach is all the more00:15:54
justified because I talk a lot about the00:15:56
cultural factors of economic00:15:58
behavior and I know that there is a very00:16:02
high active00:16:04
creative adaptability in Russia, but of00:16:08
course that it will turn out to be so00:16:09
economically important,00:16:12
I did not predict. And you thought it would be like00:16:17
I thought that people would move around and00:16:21
adapt, but I believed that, after all,00:16:27
external pressure would work. So, there would00:16:30
most likely be Ruins, or at least00:16:35
serious violations, very serious00:16:37
violations. And something would00:16:40
support me, I would say, the power00:16:42
of the human was assigned to00:16:44
what I did not I can’t be happy despite00:16:48
such a contradictory complexity, an00:16:50
ambiguous situation, but if we talk00:16:52
about the results of the year, we can already begin to00:16:54
sum them up. What is the main loss of the00:16:56
Russian economy this year, what would00:16:58
you call it? Oh, I hope we don’t lose00:17:01
our future because our present is00:17:06
really better than us could00:17:07
have guessed,00:17:09
but you know, one of the wise interlocutors00:17:14
told me in00:17:15
the spring, back during the first wave of00:17:18
departures from Russia, he said that00:17:21
people are now divided not on the basis of00:17:24
staying and leaving, but on the basis of00:17:29
you being allowed in. They say that there is a future in Russia,00:17:32
or I believe that there will be no more00:17:36
different borders Although,00:17:39
of course, we lost only according to00:17:41
Forbes a million00:17:43
people over these 7-8 months. And00:17:48
some, I think even more, of course, yes,00:17:50
this is a lot, you said that this is00:17:52
three percent of the total Yes of the workforce But00:17:55
this is a lot because, firstly, this00:17:57
educated, intellectual, thinking00:17:59
professionally lives in megacities from00:18:02
everyone I’m just now in this kind of look,00:18:05
but it seems that millions are 140 It seems that00:18:08
this is not very much, but firstly,00:18:10
this is, as I already said, educated,00:18:12
professional, not Poor people, and00:18:15
secondly, if we let's see 14000:18:17
million 45 million of them are pensioners00:18:19
30 children remain 65-70 labor force of00:18:24
which half are state employees And half of00:18:26
those employed in the private sector work in the00:18:28
service sector these are salespeople waiters there are00:18:32
not so many people left this is a00:18:34
serious loss In my opinion00:18:37
because of course I have always00:18:41
insisted that human00:18:43
capital is the main factor of our00:18:47
future, we must rely on00:18:49
human capital by creating the00:18:50
appropriate conditions in the country, and00:18:53
therefore for me this is a very difficult00:18:56
story, and even if00:19:00
I praised the authorities for their action in March-April, like00:19:06
many economists and by the way, the00:19:08
foreign centers bankers with whom I00:19:10
spoke00:19:12
for their actions in relation to human00:19:15
capital. I’m sorry,00:19:18
not that I can’t praise it, I was not shocked by00:19:21
things from him, to put it mildly, when the00:19:24
mobilization of students was announced and they00:19:27
immediately protected us with reservations, the00:19:30
question about postgraduate students and00:19:34
doctors hung around for a very long time00:19:35
two weeks of science were probably extremely00:19:38
painful00:19:41
and the government introduced a project00:19:44
that was supported by the newly elected00:19:47
President of the Russian Academy00:19:48
Krasilnikov and the Minister of Education of Science00:19:51
Valkov that reservations should be00:19:52
provided to graduate students of the00:19:55
candidate of sciences and directors of00:19:59
candidates crossed out00:20:02
so you excuse me, these are not00:20:07
skewed places, these are skewed in the center00:20:09
They destroyed the elevator because Doctors of Science00:20:14
are not immortal, and the bottom of the00:20:16
candidates of sciences,00:20:18
graduate students, animals appear in order to devote three00:20:22
years to the search for truth without thinking about the00:20:27
future, they are generally going to become00:20:29
candidates, this elevator was destroyed. This is00:20:33
madness and of course real losses00:20:36
have occurred, so the00:20:39
future is bad, the future is difficult and do you00:20:43
yourself think that Russia has a future00:20:45
or not, it still exists, but you just see00:20:51
it has become00:20:55
much less variable. If you are talking about00:21:00
me, then in my case this determined00:21:03
human capital, it is necessary to00:21:05
restore this work, from my00:21:08
point of view, it will take from 5 to 10 years from 5 to 1000:21:13
years and since we have shot through capital five times over the centuries, that in00:21:17
parallel we00:21:19
still need to achieve such conditions so00:21:22
that human capital does not00:21:26
change again in the world, does not leave the country,00:21:29
and00:21:31
while we can work on this, I00:21:35
will tell you that the latest data on schools00:21:41
was recently professors' forum and there00:21:43
they discussed data about what is00:21:46
happening to schoolchildren. In elementary00:21:49
school, our children are in the top five in the world00:21:53
in terms of literacy, different types of literacy,00:21:56
this is a pisa rating,00:22:00
and in high school they immediately fall to 32-38th00:22:03
place, so according to the latest data for00:22:09
Moscow for example,00:22:11
our schoolchildren are in the top ten, even in the00:22:15
top five, that is, at00:22:18
least they were natural to grow at the time of00:22:20
the survey, while there is still someone to00:22:25
germinate, I want to say that I should be00:22:29
happy, according to the latest data from the00:22:32
world educational rankings,00:22:34
the time is wild and00:22:38
my native Moscow State University has reached first place in00:22:41
the country in economics economics and00:22:43
financial accounting management and00:22:45
business all We are champions but I will never00:22:48
tell you why Yes, we00:22:51
have improved and came out on top but we00:22:54
came out on top because00:22:56
our competitors are sagging because00:22:58
we have fewer people leaving than, for example,00:23:02
venerable universities that compete with us00:23:05
in the first place but without00:23:08
any joy, yes, we will do the work of00:23:11
restoring human capital. But the00:23:14
question of the future has become very00:23:16
problematic here, not only your00:23:18
work. Unfortunately, yes,00:23:22
yes, human capital is a huge00:23:25
loss. I agree with you here. It also00:23:27
seems to me that a big loss is that a large00:23:29
independent business with international00:23:31
connections either left Russia this year00:23:34
or finally00:23:37
came under the control of the00:23:38
state with a signature from the state. Yandex is a fresh example of this, so by the00:23:40
way, you think that this is a transition under the00:23:43
control of the state because Yandex00:23:47
previously00:23:49
existed on Based on a certain00:23:51
compromise, I will remind you that Yandex00:23:53
was allowed to remain00:23:55
registered in the Netherlands, but at the same time00:23:59
there was an agreement on the introduction of00:24:02
state directors into the00:24:04
board of directors, a special00:24:07
public interest fund was created,00:24:10
we saw, I would say that there are the00:24:13
largest companies around this kind of company, especially when00:24:17
digital ecosystems are00:24:19
going on around the world dancing, the government is afraid of such companies00:24:24
and therefore is trying to control it more tightly.00:24:28
I think that it is more difficult for jekuma in China00:24:33
now00:24:35
with the new course of comrades than Yandex,00:24:39
so I would not yet consider that Yandex00:24:42
fell under the state because well,00:24:46
like Yandex, between us, state00:24:49
money is not needed,00:24:51
why does it have it rapidly developing businesses,00:24:55
we drive Yandex taxis, we use a00:24:58
Yandex store or something else, that is, it is00:25:02
entirely00:25:03
on private sources from the population, it can00:25:07
be a growing large company, but another thing is important:00:25:11
Yandex is the company of the00:25:13
future, after all, it has created a Russian00:25:17
search engine that is no worse than Google and it is00:25:19
very important that the base of this search engine00:25:23
should include both cloud technologies and a00:25:28
driverless car. In my opinion, a00:25:29
new new combination is that00:25:33
both will now develop00:25:36
in parallel to compete00:25:39
abroad.00:25:41
What do you think about joining00:25:43
Yandex00:25:45
I am times or stronger because that00:25:50
I believe that now it is necessary to engage in00:25:52
precisely such projects because you see the00:25:56
very future of Russia,00:25:59
which has become unlikely00:26:03
but has not ceased to be desirable;00:26:06
in particular, work is being created with00:26:10
such00:26:11
companies that are00:26:14
actually the result of our successes that were not00:26:18
noticed by many in previous years00:26:21
because I in general, during the years of covid,00:26:24
understand people were busy with other things,00:26:27
Russian digital companies came to the frontier in00:26:30
many respects, here is00:26:32
mobile banking, tinkish sberbanks even00:26:36
earlier,00:26:37
digital systems of00:26:40
Yandex sberbank, now mail.ru bull00:26:44
car sharing in Moscow, which is more than in00:26:47
any metropolis. We turned out to be00:26:52
one of the leading countries, yes it was00:26:54
after Covid, but then everything changed, these00:26:57
companies suffered greatly after the00:26:59
start of mobilization.00:27:02
I confirm this as a participant in00:27:06
life, and that other company00:27:13
suffered greatly, but at the same time,00:27:16
well, Sber00:27:18
practically restored its turnover, of course,00:27:22
not in absolute numbers, but from a breakthrough from00:27:30
Sber's losses came out00:27:32
and confirmed the goals of becoming a digital00:27:36
company and Yandex is also looking for a new00:27:39
combination. But for Yandex, the arrival of00:27:41
Kudrin. What does the company mean the company00:27:44
will change somehow?00:27:46
Can we first talk about this00:27:50
and then I will prepare to00:27:53
answer questions in detail, but I think yes Because00:27:56
on the one hand00:27:59
Kudrin is a strategist in thinking,00:28:04
he is not only a famous politician and a00:28:06
statesman, he is a strategist, plus00:28:10
he is of course a figure that remains00:28:12
acceptable, I would say for very different00:28:16
parties in the current reversal of the world, this00:28:19
is important,00:28:20
therefore00:28:22
I hope that Alexey Leonich, first of all,00:28:26
with the00:28:29
Yandex team, which is still a very00:28:32
creative strong team will look for00:28:36
new strategies, we will help the00:28:39
company follow such a strategy, and there are00:28:42
paths to the future that we will00:28:44
try to build well, mobilize the00:28:48
economy, this is also a way of00:28:50
government regulation, so what do00:28:52
you think, what are the chances that next00:28:55
year we will see a sharp increase in00:28:57
government orders under the slogan everything for the front00:28:59
everything for Victory, not just a guest of00:29:02
regulating mobilization,00:29:04
mobilization started, of course, in the00:29:08
current 2200:29:11
At first, it was a solution to the problem which,00:29:15
by the way, was decided00:29:16
to save car factories00:29:19
not in an economic sense, but in a social sense,00:29:22
because car factories are a danger of00:29:24
explosion00:29:26
among the Working Class. Moreover, we understand00:29:30
that with a high multiplier, that is the00:29:32
huge dependence of many suppliers00:29:35
working for car factories, this fire can00:29:38
spread, so what did00:29:42
state corporations do? They came00:29:45
there. Where00:29:46
large foreign investors previously invested;00:29:50
where did they leave;00:29:52
saved employment? Yes, now they will00:29:56
produce, of course,00:29:58
not new Russian cars, but00:30:02
will produce Chinese cars00:30:04
at a price of apparently one and a half to two times higher than00:30:07
their counterparts in China because00:30:11
Chinese business also wants to participate00:30:13
in the profits of the division of the market from00:30:17
foreign companies that have left, this,00:30:19
by the way, is also a factor of economic00:30:22
optimism among certain00:30:24
business circles because the00:30:26
division of the market is underway;00:30:28
careers are being made; bosses have00:30:31
left; the best specialists have left; Basques00:30:34
surrounding a person’s career and the00:30:38
same company that got these00:30:40
very markets. Moreover, the level of monopolization00:30:43
has increased, prices can be moved up, prices can be raised,00:30:46
so the question of quality really remains00:30:49
the question of quality, the question of quality is clear00:30:54
because the quality will decrease,00:30:56
there will be critical points of the infrastructure00:31:00
where it will be necessary to maintain quality,00:31:02
we are different, in general it will decrease.00:31:05
I’m returning to mobilization, we need to00:31:10
launch new projects related to00:31:13
radio electronics, and so on and so forth. That’s00:31:15
what you reviewed there, recalculated,00:31:18
but we won’t see these results soon00:31:21
because what we have00:31:24
today stands out sharply because00:31:26
we would need if we talk about00:31:30
nanometers because that in general,00:31:34
the processors that we are used to00:31:36
using in advanced industries are00:31:39
not produced in Russia and00:31:41
it is not clear when they will be produced, but00:31:45
again it cannot be said that the search is not underway,00:31:49
there was a conference00:31:52
in Sochi about whether00:31:55
technological sovereignty is possible, is it a00:31:57
reality or is it a myth, and there was such a00:32:00
position00:32:02
recalled the Soviet Soviet experience in00:32:04
programming, the00:32:06
hardware base was even worse. The gap in the00:32:09
level of the hardware base in some00:32:12
areas was greater than now,00:32:16
but there were other programming methods,00:32:18
so it says nothing that the hardware will be00:32:22
much worse, you just need other00:32:25
programming methods, there are programmers, there are00:32:27
mathematicians who will make00:32:29
algorithms than we come up with therefore, there is also00:32:32
such a search going on, it does00:32:34
n’t matter that we will be behind the world for00:32:37
a decade. But it’s important, but it’s00:32:41
also important that it works, I would say the most00:32:44
important thing is that it works in the current00:32:45
conditions, but the search is going on and what it00:32:50
will lead to is unknown, I don’t really believe00:32:53
in that either that there will be world-class breakthroughs00:32:56
Although if we remember, sir, we understand that00:32:59
I still believe,00:33:02
talking with colleagues from the Faculty of00:33:05
Defense Mathematics of Cybernetics, that a00:33:08
large electronic calculating machine. This00:33:11
was our direct path to the supercomputer,00:33:14
which we have not yet reached,00:33:16
now further about mobilization,00:33:18
mobilization is the withdrawal of money and this00:33:24
step has now been taken by the created mechanism for00:33:26
managing the mobilization economy of the00:33:28
organizational Soviet government,00:33:30
which connects regions of government and00:33:33
industry with military departments00:33:35
and now money is needed. Yes, it’s00:33:38
clear a trillion, take 3 trillion from Gazprom00:33:42
in the oil company and throw00:33:45
it at the military-industrial complex,00:33:50
you know when00:33:52
mobilization gives fundamental00:33:55
changes, I would say, are irreversible when00:33:59
people become the object of mobilization.00:34:03
We have already experienced00:34:05
such large mobilizations. There was00:34:08
Peter’s mobilization. I00:34:11
mean Peter the Great. Yes, a00:34:16
colossal mobilization of people’s funds.00:34:18
In order to make an00:34:22
economic technical00:34:25
military leap,00:34:27
Stalin’s modernization was00:34:30
less than a hundred years ago. Now00:34:32
the Conversation begins maybe we won’t repeat it, we won’t00:34:35
repeat it because Stalin’s00:34:37
organization was based on00:34:39
the import of equipment. Why was there a famine00:34:43
because we collected all the grain, sold00:34:47
and bought equipment in Germany in00:34:51
America, we are in the opposite situation. This00:34:54
thing is unique, but in principle,00:34:56
mobilization is an attempt to rush forward.00:35:00
Only it is always undermined by one thing00:35:02
circumstance, it almost always00:35:05
undermines human potential00:35:08
under Peter. I want to remind you that during the most00:35:13
legendary successful Russian00:35:16
modernization, we lost 10 of the00:35:18
population, a tenth.00:35:21
Magnificent Petersburg stands on its bones,00:35:24
just like the Ural factories00:35:26
under Stalin, they stopped the00:35:29
population census because the population began to00:35:32
fall. As you can see in our current00:35:35
mobilization We are also residents of the population,00:35:37
therefore, the limit00:35:39
of success of mobilization is precisely in this, the undermining of00:35:42
human potential does not allow us to00:35:44
do much because it does not00:35:47
directives but people, the00:35:50
loss of people is always. Be patient with00:35:53
perspectives. That is, if there is a direct00:35:55
dependence, the more people lose00:35:57
the more Breakthrough00:35:59
Of course, mobilization00:36:02
is the use of people for a breakthrough and00:36:06
money and materials and nature but also people00:36:10
In order to make a breakthrough, but the00:36:12
loss of people is always a loss of the future,00:36:15
always a loss of opportunity. Therefore, after00:36:18
all our mobilizations there followed, by00:36:21
the way, such a period of 5 movements after00:36:26
Peter,00:36:27
two or three decades in Russia were very00:36:31
unfavorable,00:36:34
we understand that after Stalin’s00:36:36
modernization, we soared to the top, it was00:36:39
somewhere in the late 50s and early sixties,00:36:41
and then we began to slowly descend and00:36:44
moved away from immigration methods because it was00:36:49
not by chance that human material was wasted, the creator of the00:36:53
gulag, Beria, was the initiator of its00:36:56
dismantling because the machine stopped00:36:58
working there weren’t enough people. And how will the current00:37:02
mobilization of the economy affect Russia00:37:06
on the Russian economy? This is the current00:37:08
mobilization,00:37:10
I don’t know, we need to see why this is all00:37:14
going on.00:37:15
Damn, I’m a bad interlocutor here00:37:18
because I always thought that the exit was with an00:37:22
unsuccessful trajectory. Overcoming the00:37:25
rut effect is something00:37:27
I’ve been really doing research for 25 years00:37:31
it00:37:32
can go00:37:36
through mobilization or through00:37:38
transformation in two different ways, both risky methods00:37:41
do not guarantee success. I want to say that00:37:44
now remember successful mobilizations.00:37:47
Listen, let me00:37:50
remind you of the mobilizations of the First World War, it was00:37:53
well organized, there were00:37:56
military-industrial committees, there were00:37:58
military state formats00:38:00
capitalism is very similar to what we have today,00:38:02
state capitalism is not00:38:04
surprising00:38:06
since 2003, 4 years, as it were, in the embryo,00:38:11
there was an obvious00:38:17
trend, but the00:38:19
mobilization of the times of00:38:22
the German, that is, the First World War.00:38:25
We remember what it led to,00:38:28
so in principle, mobilization is not00:38:33
necessary are successful, they always00:38:35
lead to the undermining of human00:38:37
potential and then it stops. Although at the same time they00:38:40
can give results and00:38:42
transformations are also not always00:38:44
successful like the reform of Alexander II or00:38:48
Gorbachev and they also risk00:38:52
losing the state,00:38:54
but I00:38:58
believe that transformations are a more00:39:01
normal way out into the future than00:39:05
mobilizations00:39:06
this is the result of my long00:39:09
thoughts and studies of the very issues, if00:39:12
we return to the example of the USSR, there is an opinion00:39:15
that the defense order buried the Soviet00:39:18
economy Because too much money00:39:20
went into a black hole. And where are the guarantees that00:39:23
this will not happen now? Yes There is such an00:39:26
opinion00:39:30
after 22 years, especially00:39:33
when I must say that everything is possible,00:39:38
but possible and options00:39:42
that we did not foresee in March,00:39:45
maybe something will go in a completely different00:39:48
way than in a catastrophic way.00:39:49
Therefore, you just need to00:39:52
look carefully at00:39:56
what this very future is made of and,00:39:59
if possible, this future is influenced by I00:40:02
I remembered because00:40:05
we had a very unexpected project in the fifteenth year.00:40:13
In the end it didn’t work out and then he00:40:17
asked me and said Listen, what do you think00:40:21
and What is the chance of success of this project? I00:40:24
said, you know, 5-7 percent if you00:40:27
do something And if nothing don’t00:40:29
do that 0 says here is the door,00:40:32
I would say that from the00:40:36
gloomy00:40:37
prospects that you draw, which00:40:40
may also turn out to be justified. I00:40:43
will return to the fact that even if there is a low00:40:46
probability of other options, there is no00:40:49
need to deal with any more then the probability is that00:40:53
you have said more than once that at the end of this00:40:56
year or in at the beginning of next year, a00:40:57
global recession will begin,00:41:00
the world is waiting for such a global cyclical00:41:03
crisis, what kind of crisis will it be, who will it00:41:06
affect, what is its scale00:41:08
because so far we see the USA is growing, China00:41:11
is growing, even Europe is growing,00:41:14
I would say that firstly the International00:41:17
Monetary Fund every two weeks worsens00:41:20
the forecast, this is a game. And I understand that they do00:41:23
n’t want to create panic, so the fact that00:41:28
now the00:41:31
International Monetary Fund Believes that there00:41:34
will be a recession in the USA, Europe and China and00:41:39
will not be in the rest of the world,00:41:41
such a prospect, I think that it will be00:41:44
global, it will be in 23,00:41:47
and of course it’s pushing towards it new00:41:50
factors of the energy crisis,00:41:54
but also military spending by00:41:58
different parties in different countries, they also do not00:42:01
improve or ozone the situation, I00:42:05
would say that’s why it’s00:42:06
true that someone can start00:42:09
using00:42:11
such incentives for the military00:42:14
industry in order to keep the00:42:17
recession in order to create jobs00:42:20
through government orders and so on further so on00:42:23
this and there maybe there may be00:42:25
such a reaction here It happens, but I want to note00:42:29
that investments in the military industry do not always00:42:31
give such00:42:34
multiplier effects sometimes they do00:42:36
sometimes not what kind of global00:42:39
crisis will it be What will it be like It’s okay,00:42:41
I think it will be similar to 200800:42:45
year nine But the depth is still00:42:48
difficult to predict and where it will start is00:42:51
also difficult to say because00:42:53
now Europe is the weakest of all, of course. Moreover,00:42:58
I would say that00:43:00
England looks the sickest, the00:43:04
United Kingdom,00:43:06
but both the USA and China have their own prerequisites00:43:10
for wiping off yet entering but00:43:13
not I think that it will be catastrophic00:43:16
or very deep, but two years of recession,00:43:20
and I think that the global recession00:43:24
seems quite incredible to me,00:43:26
this means for Russia, yes, it will be00:43:30
good and bad because it’s bad00:43:33
because energy prices00:43:36
will naturally fall. Because if there is00:43:40
production everywhere, then why burn energy Why00:43:44
fuel,00:43:45
but I think that with parallel imports it00:43:49
will be easier because at least we can00:43:53
sell products to someone. Well, what should we00:43:57
do? Yes, of course, secondary sanctions, we00:43:59
saw such a dangerous signal00:44:02
that not only the00:44:04
Russian enterprise in Zelenograd, but00:44:07
also the Armenian company and the Taiwanese company00:44:09
were hit the chain is under American sanctions,00:44:12
but the Taiwanese company will still want to00:44:15
continue operating even in a00:44:17
recession. Therefore, on the one hand, revenues are00:44:20
of course lower00:44:22
and budget revenues will be less, on the other00:44:25
hand,00:44:26
such penetration of parallel00:44:28
imports will be easier. What will happen after this00:44:31
global recession, after the global00:44:34
recession, I think there will be a turnaround00:44:36
globalization of the world economy often00:44:39
seems completely unlikely,00:44:43
humanization is a wave-like process.00:44:46
I would give a very simple argument. Yes,00:44:50
regionalization is definitely happening now, but00:44:53
it has been going on for a long time. After the crisis of 2008-9,00:44:57
especially at first, the American-Chinese00:44:59
trade war 1800:45:02
for me, the argument for the return of globalization is00:45:05
very simple; no one has canceled Adam00:45:08
Smith what a person does better than others,00:45:13
he does00:45:17
cheaper more willingly and exchanges for the00:45:21
results obtained by others, this00:45:23
is called the division of labor, the division of00:45:25
labor on a global scale, it leads to00:45:28
globalization. Therefore, yes, now00:45:31
bipolarity is intensifying, it was essentially00:45:35
declared by the Twentieth Congress of the00:45:38
Communist Party of China,00:45:40
it is the00:45:43
global economy of the seventies and00:45:46
eighties, too was bipolar,00:45:48
but then it was not China, the USSR and the USA00:45:52
and the USA are the same USA Russia00:45:56
will not participate in this globalization, I00:45:58
understand this correctly. The task is00:45:59
to participate in globalization because00:46:04
[applause] a00:46:06
break00:46:08
or complications in relations with the West does not00:46:12
mean leaving the World System00:46:14
before It will be more difficult for Russia to enter into00:46:18
global connections, and even now it is mainly00:46:22
looking at China,00:46:25
but it is wrong because besides China and00:46:30
India there is harmful Thailand Bangladesh00:46:34
Pakistan Indonesia Malaysia some of00:46:38
these countries are the so-called new big00:46:41
elephants they are rising, Vietnam is00:46:44
100 million,00:46:46
good economic dynamics by00:46:49
the way Chinese competitors00:46:55
Vietnam is also a market, this is also a00:46:58
direction of communication. Therefore, I think that00:47:02
this will require art both from business00:47:06
and from00:47:10
those who00:47:12
are trying to look 2-3 years ahead.00:47:15
We need to have time to enter the global process through these markets. In00:47:19
addition,00:47:21
I don’t know how many salespeople military00:47:25
operations Who doesn’t know, no one knows, but00:47:27
I know that after the cessation of hostilities,00:47:31
some easing of escalation and00:47:35
sensational regimes will happen,00:47:38
don’t you think that Russia is now00:47:41
cut off for a decade from Western00:47:43
civilization from the Western economy,00:47:45
some kind of titanic to what extent00:47:49
the degree varies? Yes, I I think that in00:47:53
principle it is impossible to completely dismantle the sanctions,00:47:55
I’ll tell you it’s not even about the00:47:58
government’s policy; it doesn’t even00:48:01
occur to us that00:48:02
someone took over the market and then suddenly00:48:06
the government.00:48:26
Yes, of course, basically the sanctions will remain in place,00:48:29
but some reduction may occur.00:48:31
Yes, escalation may occur. I even00:48:34
I think what will happen and I00:48:37
’ll tell you what factor will00:48:39
influence this bipolarity00:48:43
because essentially both sides are00:48:47
both poles And now they realize that they00:48:51
are moving from partnership to competition, they00:48:54
want to avoid conflict, but competition00:48:56
will be on the island of the00:48:58
United States, this was a reversal made under Trump,00:49:01
Europe is a reversal is now00:49:04
reconsidering China is not the00:49:07
largest partner in poor Europe; in one00:49:09
year it has lost two of its largest partners,00:49:12
Russia, and now rethink this00:49:14
relationship with China, of course it’s hard; the00:49:16
European Union00:49:18
begins as a dangerous dependence and as a00:49:22
competitor. Therefore, this00:49:25
competition will mean that the00:49:28
importance of Russia will be00:49:31
perceived by the poles to another,00:49:34
but Russia is not such a large player,00:49:37
you see, the00:49:38
volume of products is of course very00:49:41
small, up to two percent of00:49:43
the world product, but in some00:49:47
respects, not only raw materials are large.00:49:51
What do you think Yandex Sber we, other things, are00:49:56
factors of global competitiveness00:49:58
and I would like to draw your attention to the fact that these companies00:50:02
have worked and are working abroad that00:50:05
Yandex, which was thrown out of Paris and00:50:08
London, is working in Latin America00:50:12
to develop Western Africa, and so on and00:50:14
so forth,00:50:15
the election is also entering new markets in00:50:19
the East, therefore, in addition to00:50:24
Earring,00:50:27
where gas00:50:31
and nuclear weapons are really important,00:50:34
we also have technology companies00:50:38
and you believe in the theory that Russia, relying00:50:41
on China, India can build their own00:50:43
special system, their third way there, don’t00:50:46
believe me. I can say, firstly,00:50:48
the oporniks of India somehow look very00:50:51
strange to India. China00:50:54
is in a long-00:50:57
term, very serious confrontation; they are00:50:59
fundamentally different countries; China,00:51:01
especially after the twentieth congress, this00:51:03
in fact, a digital totalitarian state that has already almost00:51:06
taken place,00:51:08
we00:51:11
see social protests in China that00:51:14
have not fully taken place, and India resembles the00:51:17
largest democracy in the world, albeit with the00:51:20
problems of the caste system, and at the same time it is00:51:22
overtaking China in population,00:51:27
but I don’t really understand the00:51:30
use of both China and India for trade00:51:34
and the countries I have already listed,00:51:36
of course, as intermediaries, as market players,00:51:40
because Well, of course, if there are two one and a half00:51:43
billion countries with three billion00:51:45
people, we have a population not very far from00:51:48
Russia, we need to use them00:51:49
as markets, as fields for investment, and so00:51:52
on, you can use them, but does00:51:55
this mean that we are being formed along some00:51:57
special path, I’m not sure because which00:52:01
path to follow, the path that the00:52:04
20th Congress of the CPC00:52:07
proclaimed, I somehow liked the path of the 20th Congress of the CPSU00:52:11
more because we00:52:13
were already there in a totalitarian state, we’ve00:52:17
already had it all, so00:52:20
repeat this same story I think00:52:25
not very likely. It00:52:26
seems to me that many in our government00:52:29
have a great desire to repeat what00:52:31
China is doing.00:52:32
Yes, but I think that not only Chinese00:52:37
citizens doubt the correctness of the course of their00:52:40
comrades. I want to say that for me00:52:43
our field00:52:45
research in the twentieth year after the00:52:48
height of pandemic regarding relations with00:52:51
personal data because our00:52:54
fellow citizens are00:52:56
not ready to give up their personal00:52:58
data to anyone, including the state,00:53:02
only in case of extreme threat there is a00:53:05
criminal or health attack, they do00:53:08
n’t think that it is theirs and personal00:53:11
data is a very important thing, not only00:53:13
important for00:53:15
big data for a personal profile00:53:18
so that there is no manipulation of behavior00:53:21
this is the shadow of a person this is the second expression00:53:24
people are not ready to surrender themselves to the faith of the00:53:28
state, we have 30 percent00:53:31
more or less consider the00:53:34
state’s protected data and only 6 percent00:53:37
firmly believe that they do not believe00:53:40
and without trust you Excuse me, here it is hardly00:53:45
possible00:53:46
to achieve expanded control of00:53:49
state human life, but he00:53:51
will say more despite the fact that the economic00:53:54
forecast for 2300:53:58
promises a slow decline, but in my00:54:01
opinion there is a factorist. It00:54:04
seems to me that we have a crack in the foundation of such a00:54:08
public economic building00:54:09
that creates risks. I will tell you00:54:12
what I have in view of remember how people00:54:15
protested00:54:16
against forced vaccination, it was an00:54:20
extremely difficult question everywhere and there00:54:24
were very different people there, some00:54:27
literate, free-thinking, some00:54:30
professing extremely strange00:54:32
prejudices. But there were many such people00:54:37
and they fundamentally took the position00:54:40
that it is our choice to00:54:43
be evaluated. At least it seems public00:54:46
danger,00:54:48
mobilization in September00:54:51
is a projectile into the same crater because00:54:55
people have been in the Soviet Union for 30 years. They are accustomed to the fact00:54:59
that politics can change like this, everything can00:55:02
be cancelled, you00:55:03
decide to like it, but the family and the00:55:08
autonomous person, at will, go under00:55:11
the contract, listen to the00:55:13
son, send the husband, send according to his00:55:16
convictions to go,00:55:19
but forcibly,00:55:21
it deceives expectations. Well,00:55:25
wait a second, wait, wait,00:55:28
because this is called a social00:55:31
contract, a social contract, this is an exchange of00:55:33
expectations about property rights and00:55:35
Freedom. This is the deepest basis00:55:38
of order, because00:55:40
after all, the expectations were what they were in March,00:55:46
carefully watching TV Save with popcorn00:55:49
Look at the00:55:51
victorious progress of the special operation That's why00:55:54
they say so September, the popcorn was put aside,00:55:57
you climb into the screen and take your uniform with you00:56:00
Sorry, a completely different story, this was a00:56:04
sociological trial, Zubtsov passed like this, there were no00:56:09
serious political consequences, it didn't00:56:12
waver, the ratings calmed down,00:56:14
but in reality, why am I saying cracks,00:56:18
the expectation00:56:20
is blurred destroyed It’s not clear what to expect00:56:23
from the state, and I repeat once again,00:56:25
the Russians don’t want a totalitarian state,00:56:31
what does this mean for the economy, this00:56:33
means that in general there is a smooth decline, but00:56:36
there may be random events00:56:40
that will bring down a00:56:44
Black Swan could, for example, Because00:56:49
How many such disappointed expectations have there been from00:56:51
amendments to the Constitution at home implementation00:56:54
of the amendments to the Constitution In my opinion, there was00:56:58
an exchange proposed, in fact, there were a lot of00:57:01
social obligations about the language of00:57:05
animals in exchange for the lifting of restrictions,00:57:09
it was still a deception and there00:57:12
were a lot of such deceptions, we also see it now. A00:57:18
black swan would not be a black swan00:57:20
if you can tell me in detail how it was there00:57:23
it has plumage when you take off,00:57:28
someone said something unsuccessfully.00:57:31
This could also be or a decision was made in a00:57:35
completely different area and caused00:57:39
unexpected consequences. I’m just00:57:42
saying based on the analyzes that let’s be00:57:44
honest. We admit that our00:57:47
country’s own forces have worked for 22 years00:57:52
and we we have a result that is noticeably better than00:57:55
expected, but let’s00:57:58
still look into the future with an understanding of what00:58:01
can happen, can happen And in00:58:04
the future there will be slow declines No matter what the00:58:09
super optimists say, a continued decline and00:58:12
contraction of the economy, but00:58:15
there is a crack in the foundation, so00:58:18
unexpected events are possible unexpected00:58:21
market movements Alexander Aleksandrovich,00:58:24
next year we will live worse In an00:58:26
economic sense than now, or there00:58:28
will be no smoke, there will be no fire No, worse, worse00:58:31
But we are now living worse than yes Martin Well,00:58:35
look, Will there be a catastrophe, I don’t know, I00:58:38
essentially answered your question about00:58:41
macroeconomic dynamics No00:58:43
the deterioration will be slower But00:58:48
I don’t know how the crack will work, I’m warning you that it’s00:58:52
there And what will happen to Russia00:58:54
the day after tomorrow it’s00:58:59
very difficult for him to answer because00:59:03
Previously we had several00:59:06
resources on which we could build00:59:09
our day after tomorrow Well then there was not even the00:59:12
day after tomorrow human potential but we00:59:15
we’ll talk about it less, and maybe00:59:17
even less00:59:22
spatial potential Well, yes, we00:59:24
seem to have expanded, but our00:59:26
communication capabilities have sharply00:59:28
narrowed, and there’s a wonderful project for a nuclear00:59:31
fleet on the00:59:32
Northern Sea route, but I have a question: We00:59:35
will transport Murmansk fish to00:59:38
the Asian one, what to transport because the Greatness00:59:41
of this project plan00:59:44
In my opinion, it was that it connected00:59:47
Europe with East Asia by a different route other than00:59:51
through the Indian Ocean, so00:59:53
communication capabilities in this00:59:55
space have decreased; infrastructure, we00:59:59
cannot invest as much in the development of01:00:01
the country as before, we have so little01:00:07
military-technical developments. Well, yes, once upon01:00:10
a time From the means of delivering an01:00:14
atomic charge, Peaceful Space emerged,01:00:17
which eventually gave rise to01:00:20
telecommunications communications, and01:00:23
from the atomic charge,01:00:25
atoms of energy arose. But from01:00:28
hyper-speed weapons, it is not yet visible01:00:30
that anything like this would arise. What, for01:00:32
example, made it possible to01:00:34
ensure delivery Brest Vladivostok01:00:39
How many minutes are there?01:00:41
no yet no I’m like that And in general, the01:00:47
arms market is small, you01:00:51
can’t make an economy there, which means that what01:00:54
remains I thought painfully01:00:56
because yes, this is the main question that01:01:00
we have lost pieces of the future, we need to look for01:01:04
some moves and paths, I’ll tell you01:01:07
why I thought of it Yes, a very strange thing01:01:11
you know, five years ago there was a big01:01:14
dispute, it was between macroeconomists, but01:01:16
in general I had to not decrease01:01:18
because there was an idea that Russia01:01:23
would need to increase the gross product per01:01:26
capita, we then occupied 54th place in the01:01:29
world, now we are probably already over 60. That is,01:01:32
we have a very low-productivity01:01:34
economy01:01:35
and macroeconomists discussed And the question01:01:39
was from a higher authority Let's put01:01:42
such a problem to cover in place01:01:44
discussed said impossible one and a01:01:52
half times impossible 1.7 possible and01:01:56
showed a slide made by two01:02:00
French scientists I am in Malgan01:02:04
Pierre Caillou one of them My colleague is the dean01:02:06
of economics faculty session on the second01:02:09
chapter of the macroeconomic program and01:02:12
Kohl politician this is a study that01:02:15
shows that if in the respective01:02:17
countries the level of people's trust in each other01:02:20
in general distrust was01:02:23
such as Sweden's Swede The leader of 63 percent of01:02:27
the situation answers the question Is it possible01:02:29
to trust another majority01:02:31
then in England the product would be five01:02:34
percent more per capita in01:02:36
Germany by seven B quiet by 40 in Russia01:02:40
by 6901:02:43
and this is our resource because distrust01:02:46
is our main loss of people to01:02:49
each other not the state but people to each01:02:53
other now it stands01:02:56
next to Russia in this table01:03:00
Mexico seems to be why they also have a01:03:03
low level of trust, I can say01:03:05
three countries that can be put there01:03:07
are Turkey.01:03:09
Why do you know what these01:03:12
countries have in common? These are the so-called torn01:03:15
countries according to Huntington, these are countries that01:03:18
at one time defended their01:03:20
nationality’s sovereignty during the powerful01:03:22
expansion of the West by intercepting01:03:25
industrial military management technologies01:03:28
from the West, the result was a01:03:32
Westernized Elite while preserving the01:03:36
traditional population in Russia, this01:03:39
happened, of course, while they themselves were transferred to the01:03:41
Great in Japan01:03:44
at the end of the 19th century, they figured out from swelling in01:03:48
Turkey and Turkey are still fighting in01:03:51
Turkey01:03:53
in Mexico in 1910 17 during their01:03:57
Revolution, that is, in one country. We have01:04:01
two countries,01:04:02
two cultures, and we are not the only ones with01:04:06
two hearts, and we feel it01:04:09
because we conducted field research with01:04:12
colleagues at the Institute of National01:04:14
Projects, Faculty of Economics, Moscow State University,01:04:16
Russian venture company center01:04:18
strategic developments, we found01:04:20
five years of field research,01:04:23
we realized that two countries and Russia to01:04:25
Russia01:04:27
and Russia Megalopolis Ural Siberia01:04:31
Far East what they want01:04:33
Freedom of democracy modernization to Russia01:04:39
state support01:04:41
justice and distribution01:04:46
and in relation to the geopolitical split01:04:48
that occurred, too, after all, two countries,01:04:51
too, after all, a split because for those who01:04:55
participated in global relations, built01:04:58
frontier companies, there were tragedies.01:05:01
Well, except for those who are now01:05:03
making rapid careers and the markets are divided for whom it is01:05:05
also a tragedy. But with income, everything01:05:08
is fine, but01:05:09
for a country that for 30 years01:05:14
practically nothing has happened at all. Well,01:05:16
nothing at all because live01:05:19
Well, in general, the problems of deficit were also solved by01:05:23
money, you can buy something, and the01:05:26
blatant inequality for this country, like01:05:28
these countries, the picture looks completely different01:05:31
when we turned to the west,01:05:33
here we were robbed, that’s why01:05:39
such standard logical means nothing01:05:41
a mistake01:05:42
after this means a consequence is that01:05:46
we have three generations here, as it were, the01:05:49
Elite were engaged in different things within the country,01:05:53
building higher institutions, this is01:05:57
now forgotten, not also forgotten, postponed. But01:06:00
it is clear that the Anglo-Saxon world01:06:06
Why am I talking about this split about two01:06:09
countries is01:06:11
the future for their we are looking for and there01:06:15
is such a resource01:06:17
due to the fact that we will either find01:06:22
a way to connect these two sides01:06:26
or manipulation will continue01:06:28
because it is extremely convenient to govern a01:06:31
country where the political majority01:06:33
is ensured by one country and the01:06:35
economic development of another.01:06:37
What are the chances that we will find it?01:06:41
I would say it depends on two things,01:06:46
firstly,01:06:50
we need a transformation program, I will now say the01:06:55
heretical thing that01:06:56
Russia is a federal state according to the01:07:01
Constitution. This means that we can01:07:04
have different01:07:06
policies, economic regimes in different01:07:08
regions, here they are chosen01:07:11
and here they are appointed, please here is01:07:16
redistribution and here competition is01:07:19
only necessary resource of course01:07:21
they have already begun to be distributed to the regions during the01:07:24
pandemic and now they will also have to do so01:07:28
in the current conditions, regional01:07:33
opportunities should still be01:07:35
increased anyway because01:07:37
otherwise they cannot cope with the situation.01:07:39
Therefore, firstly, federalization needs to01:07:43
identify these potentials, people need to01:07:45
try to arrange their lives the way01:07:49
they want and then the connection of these things01:07:51
through agglomerations through the development of such01:07:55
centers as01:07:57
Moscow Petersburg Yekaterinburg now and I01:08:00
am sure that the Volga region of Southern Siberia such01:08:03
centers can grow which01:08:07
general advice economics migration01:08:09
flows for to Russia for and Russia01:08:12
because in general people should move people01:08:14
should mix something01:08:16
to understand others And the last thing I would say is that01:08:18
culture needs an appropriate01:08:21
educational cultural policy, that01:08:24
is, in general they say you are not things, a01:08:28
long look at 20 years for one01:08:32
generation, at least families,01:08:35
trust in the majority01:08:38
and agreements of ability, then we sit01:08:41
opposite each other as if in trenches and then01:08:45
we are surprised that the country is in such01:08:50
intellectual moral ruin,01:08:53
so I don’t know, maybe there are01:08:57
some other paths to the future, but it seems to me01:09:01
that there are not enough of them left.01:09:04
And if we do01:09:09
n’t conduct such a national economic consultation,01:09:12
of course there will be, but it will be01:09:16
sad.01:09:18
This was Alexander Aozan and I by Marianna01:09:21
Minsker And you hang in there and subscribe01:09:23
to the RTVi telegram channel there is a lot of important stuff01:09:33
[music]Description:
🔥Начните карьеру в Data Science сейчас: https://go.skillfactory.ru/iu8RvA Получите 50% скидки на обучение по промокоду RTVI до 31.12.22 РЕКЛАМА. ООО "СКИЛФЭКТОРИ" erid:Pb3XmBtzss9ikp21cLtqt6UqZ89upR6AMKbSUD6 Гость «Вы держитесь!» — декан экономического факультета МГУ им. Ломоносова Александр Аузан. В интервью Марианне Минскер он рассказал, как изменилась российская экономика и чего с ней не произошло, как повело себя население в этот год и как смог адаптироваться бизнес, смогут ли Россия вместе с Индией и Китаем построить новый мир, почему в 2023 году произойдет мировая рецессия и есть ли у России будущее. Подписывайтесь на телеграм-канал RTVI: https://t.me/rtvimain Новый мир уже тут: @RTVIchronicles Подписывайтесь на @RTVINews и ставьте лайки! Если хотите отвлечься от новостей, подписывайтесь на наш канал @RTVItainment 00:00 «Вы держитесь». Александр Аузан 00:55 Что произошло с российской экономикой за этот год? 01:45 Что могло произойти с экономикой, но не случилось? 05:27 Что для людей означает -20% ВВП? 06:20 Как сработала рыночная экономика? 11:40 Как повело себя население? 14:34 Про адаптацию бизнеса 15:50 «Человеческая сила возобладала» 17:00 Какая главная потеря российской экономики? 20:46 Есть у России будущее? 23:42 «„Яндекс“ и раньше существовал на основе определенного компромисса» 25:45 О приходе Кудрина в «Яндекс» 29:00 Про мобилизационную экономику и государственное регулирование 37:09 К чему приводит мобилизация? 39:25 Гособоронзаказ похоронил советскую экономику. Может ли это произойти сейчас? 41:12 Что такое мировая рецессия и кого она затронет? 44:32 Что будет после глобальной рецессии? 45:48 Будет ли Россия участвовать в глобализации экономики? 50:45 Может ли Россия с Индией и Китаем построить новый мир? 52:43 «У нас в фундаменте общественно-экономического здания трещина» 58:56 Что будет с Россией послезавтра? 1:03:10 «В одной стране у нас две страны» 1:06:39 Как Россия может измениться и что для этого нужно?
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