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Russian
00:00:00
[music]00:00:01
First Everything is in your hands friends Congratulations My00:00:04
name is Igor Havraschak This is the traditional00:00:06
YouTube platform of the 24th channel and I am very00:00:08
happy to welcome our guest military00:00:10
expert Peter Chernyk Mr. Peter Congratulations00:00:12
Glory to Ukraine00:00:14
Glory to the heroes Mr. Peter of course00:00:16
we will talk about the battle line00:00:18
about the state to our enemy about00:00:20
what and how our allies and00:00:22
partners have, but let's start with00:00:24
the most important thing, this is the actual front and the00:00:27
Aviv direction, the most difficult since October,00:00:30
in fact, when the Russians launched a new,00:00:33
including a meat assault, losing a00:00:35
huge, unprecedented amount of00:00:37
equipment and personnel forces currently know and00:00:40
this is already confirmed by geolocation00:00:42
images of the Institute for the Study of00:00:44
War that in recent days the armed forces of00:00:47
Ukraine managed to push back the enemy a little and00:00:49
carry out counterattack actions in the north00:00:52
near Stepovoy in general.00:00:59
it is expedient as far as it is a00:01:01
political decision And what will happen conditionally00:01:04
speaking we are modeling the situation after00:01:07
Avdiivka everything is expedient from their side because00:01:10
let's find out little by little what is really00:01:12
happening there Avdiivka has become00:01:14
political why will Putin00:01:17
re-appoint himself to the post Next spring00:01:20
he needs at least some positive00:01:22
results, they came to the conclusion that in a00:01:25
strategic sense, the special military00:01:26
operation does not achieve results, Ukraine00:01:29
remains a non-dependent state, and therefore we00:01:31
need at least some minimal00:01:34
results in terms of what00:01:36
they declared. Let us00:01:38
recall that one of the aspects of the beginning of00:01:40
this war is the Belli case the reason for00:01:43
the war is nothing more than the recognition of the LPR and00:01:46
DPR of these sub-republics first as00:01:48
independent states and then their00:01:50
full inclusion in the Russian00:01:52
Federation and they really came to the00:01:55
conclusion that it is necessary to go to the00:01:56
administrative borders of Donetsk and00:01:58
Luhansk regions and believe me their Propaganda very00:02:01
easily rebuilds this process even if00:02:03
they have to withdraw from the southern00:02:06
bridgehead, they will say very simple00:02:08
things, the strike on Kyiv, Kherson,00:02:11
Mykolaiv was nothing more than a00:02:13
diversionary maneuver, we have returned00:02:16
the Donbas to the Motherland, the task we set before ourselves,00:02:18
we are ending the00:02:20
special military operation, the Ukrainians do not00:02:22
want to end the war and this is for sure It is a00:02:24
very dangerous plan for us, because00:02:26
there will be many politicians in Europe who00:02:29
say, Well, really, we00:02:31
have to get out of that war somehow, and this00:02:33
way of freezing the conflict, in my00:02:36
opinion, cannot be implemented. Will00:02:40
they succeed in this strategic plan, well, for00:02:42
the moment if we understand that the00:02:44
activation of the anti-tank missile began on00:02:47
October 7, it was very powerful, very00:02:49
serious, the best indicator is the first00:02:52
six days of fighting, then more than00:02:55
130 units of tanks, more than 25000:02:58
units of armored combat vehicles and00:03:00
more than 200 artillery pieces were lost,00:03:03
and more than 5,000 people were killed this we00:03:06
calmly multiply the number by three, we have more than 1500:03:09
- this is a full-blooded division, a mechanized00:03:12
division - this is 12,500 people, this is despite the fact that the00:03:15
mechanized regiment, according to standard00:03:17
operational and tactical indicators, must00:03:20
break through the battalion tactical formations,00:03:23
it has advanced 2-3 km along the front and 3-5 km in depth00:03:27
for a few hundred meters, how will it be00:03:31
further, we will see if they have00:03:33
human potential, first of all,00:03:35
unfortunately, it is under bahmut, more precisely, in00:03:38
bahmut, only one pvk Wagner lost more than00:03:40
22,000 personnel killed,00:03:43
they officially declared this without00:03:46
taking into account the regular army, and we understand00:03:49
that God The tsar of Russia, this concept was formed00:03:52
in the time of Alexander III by00:03:56
Constantine the Great, this was the teacher of the tsars, and00:03:59
at that time nothing has changed. If Putin00:04:02
said, the brothers will do everything possible00:04:05
for this, or will they take it?00:04:10
Time00:04:13
will tell, well Mr. Peter, you mentioned the00:04:16
official goals of their00:04:20
special military operation, so to speak, which is the east of00:04:22
Ukraine, the Luhansk Donetsk region, but00:04:25
actually you mentioned the exit to the borders00:04:28
of these areas and what under this slogan the00:04:31
Russian Federation can explain at00:04:34
least to the internal audience about the departure00:04:37
from the left bank, actually about the left00:04:39
bank, what is happening there, the General Staff has already00:04:41
officially announced that a00:04:44
bridgehead has been created, we understand that it is00:04:46
several kilometers deep, if there is a bridgehead or not I00:04:49
understand correctly that the00:04:50
original plan of the armed forces of00:04:53
Ukraine before the dam was blown up was to develop00:04:56
their success on on the left bank, and now this00:04:59
plan is being implemented little by little with a delay00:05:01
due to the undermining of the Kakhov dam Well,00:05:05
let's look00:05:07
at this bridgehead, which in fact exists, we00:05:11
managed to do so, and this is very important, from a slightly different angle00:05:16
to develop an00:05:19
analytical component around everything00:05:22
that is happening there, and in fact I would00:05:24
ask you to continue to adhere to this00:05:27
position. You have shown the map very correctly now.00:05:38
pladarma and there is a00:05:41
right right flank, if you move the map just a little bit, it is00:05:43
where we are cutting the00:05:46
Surovikin line in the Zaporizhzhia area. And now00:05:50
we can lower the line from this platform down00:05:53
to the milky estuary.00:05:55
We can see the milky estuary on the map.00:06:00
there will be Molochniy Liman oh here it is, that's00:06:04
right. This is Molochniy Liman if00:06:07
these strategic claws And these strategic00:06:10
claws will be implemented it is possible it is00:06:13
very difficult it is a very difficult job but00:06:15
it is possible then we understand that this00:06:18
black line is by and large already00:06:20
Perekopskyi isthmus, we cut00:06:23
them off from the land corridor that runs00:06:26
from the right side of the occupied00:06:28
Donetsk region, and this is precisely the00:06:31
collapse of the southern bridgehead. If this00:06:35
concept is implemented, it is a colossal00:06:37
step forward.00:06:42
firmly, but could not00:06:44
overcome it, since May, we00:06:47
have overheated our own expectations in the part of the00:06:50
Great Counteroffensive, so that, as they say, tomorrow will not be the00:06:53
end, tomorrow will not be like that, we must00:06:55
learn hard and difficult lessons and00:06:58
gain strategic patience,00:07:00
strategic patience is the guarantee of our00:07:03
Victory, the prerequisites, I repeat, the second00:07:06
collapse of the South pter is when it00:07:09
will happen, the00:07:11
worldly mind of the planet Earth will not undertake to predict,00:07:14
actually, Mr. Peter, you mentioned00:07:16
overheating with the word Counteroffensive. Do00:07:20
you think it was overheated by the00:07:22
Ukrainians themselves, or was it based on us, and the goals of00:07:27
achieving this counteroffensive were based on the conditions of00:07:30
supplying weapons with all the necessary00:07:32
a here are our partners. We know very well that we00:07:34
delayed this supply and we still do00:07:37
not have what we were promised. We will00:07:39
even remember the example with the Abrams,00:07:42
frankly speaking.00:07:51
This is not exactly what is00:07:54
needed for effective promotion, I completely00:07:58
share your point of view, but I would00:08:00
not00:08:01
concentrate so much directly on the Abrams. It is a00:08:03
very good machine, but there are Well,00:08:06
the Germans, the Germans and the British gave much00:08:09
more of their Challengers and their00:08:13
Leopards, and in Leopard configuration - 1 and in the00:08:15
Leopard 2 configuration. And in general, if00:08:18
that’s the case. You know very well that I love00:08:20
history, then a few tanks can change the00:08:23
course of the battle. Michael Whitman. Well, just an00:08:26
incredible German tank AS with00:08:28
a few and tanks, I emphasize with a few00:08:31
tanks on the Kursk arc, disrupted the offensive of an00:08:34
entire army, not a brigade, not division, not of the00:08:37
corps, but of the entire army, this is a historical fact,00:08:40
who is interested in Michael Whitman, I emphasize once again,00:08:42
he will find and read how he00:08:45
managed to do it all, and indeed the 31st machine is00:08:49
very necessary. But in our context, it does not00:08:52
change the logic of conducting hostilities to00:08:54
emphasize armored vehicles and that00:08:57
to break through large00:08:59
deep operational directions, as it00:09:02
was in the Second World War during the00:09:05
same Battle of Kursk, you need not 300,00:09:08
not 400. Well, at least 15 thousand tanks, then00:09:12
we would say something about the fact that the00:09:13
armored fist proved itself in the00:09:16
full sense in our case tanks00:09:19
work primarily to cover00:09:21
infantry manpower and as00:09:24
short-range artillery, but in no way00:09:26
work as a shock group to take out00:09:30
their armored vehicles, this is such a nuance00:09:33
that00:09:34
needs to be sharpened, but let's get back to the00:09:37
most important thing, this five-month00:09:39
counteroffensive, although in my opinion, in a00:09:42
strategic in the sense, he is so successful.00:09:44
No way, we cut down a large bridgehead in the00:09:46
Surovikin line. It’s a lot. Of course,00:09:50
we want more. Well, according to the total00:09:52
losses from May, the month now to00:09:55
October inclusive, only almost00:09:58
100,000 personnel were killed. Well, this is a00:10:00
fantastic number, Mr. Peter. If we00:10:02
talk about this move hostilities and the conditions00:10:06
that have developed at the front. We00:10:07
understand perfectly well, and we must admit that the00:10:10
Russian army has learned to00:10:14
dig in, learned to mine and00:10:17
defend, whether we like it or not, but00:10:19
they are doing it quite well, to put it mildly, even00:10:22
now.00:10:24
They are trying to do what they did in the00:10:26
Zaporozhye direction in the Tokmak area and00:10:29
to Melitopol. They want to do the same in a00:10:31
hurry at the Kherson bridgehead so as00:10:34
not to withdraw and the front would not collapse under such00:10:37
conditions. My question is whether there can be any00:10:40
significant progress or actually in such00:10:42
trenches of00:10:44
the first world confrontations, advances00:10:46
will be difficult, minimal with heavy00:10:49
losses, well, there is a nuance of the weather, let's00:10:52
be time, the weather is now becoming00:10:55
decisive if we had a greater00:10:57
fire potential at the start of May,00:10:59
especially in the part that concerns00:11:02
gaining superiority in the air, because00:11:05
once again we have to pay tribute to our00:11:07
enemy by the way, they00:11:09
always knew how to dig in, this is their traditional military tactic00:11:12
from the time of the First World War and the00:11:14
Second, including here, they are masters, but00:11:17
in the last few months,00:11:20
especially September and October, they have achieved a00:11:23
rather serious parity in the part00:11:25
called bomb dropping, and00:11:28
aiming the bomb resetting, if until00:11:31
now they had a00:11:32
small number of glider bombs, 10,000 fell, then they managed to00:11:35
develop a relatively cheap and simple00:11:38
universal planning and00:11:40
correction module in the IPC, that's what it's called, and00:11:42
integrate it into the most two massive00:11:45
bombs, the most massive bombs they have are the00:11:48
Fab-250 and Fab 500 of these bombs00:11:51
can be dropped even from helicopters. Not to mention the00:11:53
Su-24, Su-25, Su-30, Su-35,00:11:58
etc., they managed to do it and in00:12:00
warehouses since the time of the Soviet Union, they do00:12:03
not need to produce dozens of them.00:12:06
thousands tens of thousands It's hard for me00:12:09
to give a figure how many there are I got lost in the00:12:11
analytical assessment I came to the conclusion that there are00:12:13
incredibly many of them in the month of September00:12:17
more than 1000 bombs were used well that's a00:12:20
colossal number that's exactly what will happen00:12:23
now everything is slowing down is it possible to00:12:25
solve this problem is it possible to f16 s it is possible to00:12:29
effectively fight the carriers of the bomb in00:12:32
the glider mode is within00:12:36
40-70 km, that is, the aircraft00:12:39
must approach the line at such a distance because the00:12:41
f16 has an00:12:44
incredible em10 amram missile in its configuration,00:12:47
the latest modification 4 can00:12:50
strike and hit a target at a distance of 18000:12:53
km if you take into account the speed at which the00:12:56
f16 moves, this is 2,50000:12:59
kilometers, take into account an incredibly00:13:01
high-quality radar, plus it is a network-centric00:13:04
machine that can be connected in00:13:07
real time with satellite specific00:13:11
moments that can arrive there and00:13:13
so on and so on, then you can change the00:13:17
course and logic of the war battle lines of00:13:19
collision Well, but we still do not have these00:13:22
universal sudates, in fact you told00:13:25
Mr. Petre about the F16 and the spokesman of the00:13:27
Ukrainian Air Force, Yuriy, said that the00:13:29
F16 can change the course of the battle, as I understand00:13:34
it, how can we first of all00:13:36
protect against the dropping of fabs on our00:13:39
territory and ours and on our command00:13:41
posts or any critical and00:13:44
strategic object exactly Yes We just00:13:47
sorted it out it is possible Well f16 you are really a00:13:50
mega hit machine well in my opinion there is nothing better in the00:13:53
fourth generation in its class00:13:55
Well of course there is even00:13:57
better F5 15 but to understand how high-00:14:01
quality this machine is, one more, I will give a00:14:04
historical example in the early 80s, there was00:14:07
such an operation, the Israelis00:14:10
destroyed an Iraqi nuclear reactor00:14:13
that Iraq bought from France, so the F-16s00:14:16
worked in the bomb-dropping shock mode,00:14:19
this is despite the fact that it is considered that they are00:14:22
significantly inferior to the F-15, and the F-1500:14:26
worked as interceptors, which covered and00:14:29
set up radio jams, so that we understand00:14:31
how accurate this machine is, of course, it00:14:34
was born in00:14:35
1975, but it00:14:38
turned out so well that it has enormous00:14:40
modernization potential and can00:14:42
work in three main modes,00:14:45
an interceptor, that is hunting for00:14:47
cruise missiles sha shahed By the way,00:14:50
including a bomber, a colossally00:14:53
huge nomenclature of bombs and, in my00:14:56
opinion, we most need e bombs00:14:59
such as cbu87 cbu100 are cluster bombs,00:15:03
there is a very large potential for damage,00:15:06
let's say cbu 100 is 247 subelements of the00:15:10
mk18 If I'm not mistaken, sow with these00:15:14
bombs, the front line, well, the Russians have very little00:15:17
chance of survival, plus why is this very00:15:19
necessary, because they have already started using00:15:21
RBK 500 cluster bombs, it has already been confirmed00:15:25
that a very serious and00:15:27
dangerous bomb was used, in order to achieve parity,00:15:30
we must have appropriate weapons, a large00:15:33
number of F16s, yes, 60 dashes 120 machines with the00:15:37
entire nomenclature of bombs. And this is 10500:15:39
units, not bombs, weapons, give the entire entire00:15:43
line of weapons up to f16 - these are 105 indicators that00:15:46
can fundamentally change the course of the war,00:15:49
but there is a nuance.00:15:58
they are breaking the course of the war, but00:16:00
already 120+ machines are definitely being broken, but actually00:16:03
you mentioned the RBK 500, Mr. Peter.00:16:07
Please tell me, is this the first time00:16:09
the Russians are using cluster shells of this class,00:16:11
or in general, the first time they are using00:16:13
cluster shells as such in the war with00:16:15
Ukraine, there is a moment that it is a free-falling bomb,00:16:18
that is, an airplane had to come in from above the00:16:21
target and drop it in our country, our00:16:24
air defense system is not bad,00:16:26
that is, the plane can be intercepted00:16:30
even by portable anti-aircraft missile00:16:32
systems, because the bomb can be dropped from a height of00:16:35
more than 5,000 m. Well, it is very difficult, it is00:16:38
only in the case of carpet bombing that00:16:41
can be very high E00:16:44
bombers. And for carpet00:16:47
bombing, the Russians have no equipment. The00:16:49
last planes that could do it are the00:16:53
Tu-22, not to be confused with the Tu-22 M3. These are different00:16:56
planes, they sound like the same, but00:16:58
such full-fledged, full-scale, large00:17:01
bombing attacks could only be00:17:03
carried out by such targets in 95ms, if I remember. It doesn't00:17:05
betray me, I can't know everything, even in00:17:07
my case, I could be wrong for some reason, they00:17:10
liquidated all the equipment that was00:17:12
for heavy bombs and only the 22m3 left,00:17:16
left a certain option on the fab 250,00:17:20
it seems there are up to 60 bombs, it can00:17:23
take on a bot, but once again free-falling00:17:25
bombs that hit the target from above, everything is00:17:28
very simple, the plane is from above, the target is from below, the00:17:30
carrier itself is a very convenient target, we have something to00:17:34
shoot them down, but here is a glider bomb.00:17:44
this is already00:17:46
a problem for us, and this is the RBK 500, I am00:17:50
almost 100% sure, you00:17:53
have shown it correctly, the RBK 500. I think that00:17:56
this umpk has it, they managed to integrate it there,00:17:59
and this is not really00:18:02
good news, because once again I will emphasize bombs of the00:18:04
most diverse classes of calibers and00:18:07
the like, who is interested in Googling00:18:08
Russian aerial bombs, everything is very00:18:10
specific and clearly written in them, an00:18:12
incredibly large number, Mr. Peter,00:18:16
let's talk about all the possible00:18:18
options that can be simulated, we were00:18:19
talking about the onset of the actions of the00:18:22
armed forces of Ukraine, the reconquest of their00:18:23
territory, and are they00:18:25
capable Russians, is the enemy capable00:18:29
of resuming offensive actions on such a00:18:30
scale in order to achieve the goals00:18:33
they set for themselves, this is the west and on00:18:36
Kharkiv region, the advance and recapture of the00:18:38
same Balaklia raisin of the00:18:41
estuary and Kupinsky eat in the opposite way. Let's00:18:44
go from the opposite, this is the best00:18:46
way to argue for the beginning00:18:48
of a large-scale invasion when we00:18:50
were not ready at all when they had the00:18:53
best prepared group that you00:18:55
can have in nature 200,000 people00:18:58
the best equipment that was just00:19:00
thrown into Ukraine and they did not achieve the00:19:02
strategic goal at the expense of what Well it is00:19:05
very difficult for me to give the right one at the moment00:19:08
Is it possible? Is it impossible, but there is00:19:10
a nuance. The Russians have a very specific00:19:12
way of thinking. I saw this infamous pontoon with my own eyes in the00:19:15
Siverskyi00:19:18
Dninets area in the area of the village of Belogorivka, where in one00:19:20
day, in one day, they00:19:23
put the pontoon five times in one place, burned 7300:19:27
pieces of equipment and lost 800 people were00:19:29
killed by the personnel and this is all00:19:32
within one day and a person in their right00:19:35
mind Well, how can you be hit once in00:19:37
one place Well, a maximum of two Well, you00:19:39
will not do it yourself a third time there and00:19:41
they made a TV series in Chernobayevka, well, how00:19:44
lazy about it I didn't laugh, I lost my mind00:19:47
somewhere after the 20th time, because I realized00:19:49
that they will do it all the same, they have00:19:51
such a specific logic regarding the act of00:19:54
large-scale suicide And this will be an act of00:19:56
large-scale suicide, they may00:19:58
appear to be Marcus Tullius Cicero, a wonderful phrase00:20:02
in his performance that is closer to collapse empires,00:20:04
their actions are crazier, and the Russians have00:20:06
never been distinguished by rationality00:20:09
of thinking, especially if such stakes are00:20:11
high, Stalin claimed that the Russians00:20:14
cannot lose in a battle, how many00:20:16
soldiers' lives must be spent,00:20:18
how much is the cost, and a defeat in this war is00:20:21
Putin's personal defeat, he can00:20:23
lose his life and those who are ready00:20:27
to die Well, for Putin’s majesty, even with a00:20:29
pen to attack, they still have a lot of f-16s,00:20:34
we already talked about them with you today,00:20:35
Mr. Petre, but actually, let me remind you00:20:38
that the other day in the Pentagon it was announced that00:20:40
they are preparing a full cycle of replacement of00:20:43
spare parts for f16s for Ukraine for a period of00:20:47
90 days. That is, we understand the use of00:20:49
f-16s, they need to be serviced, they need to be00:20:51
repaired, they need to be reconciled. And what00:20:55
exactly did they say that such a hub00:20:57
would be in Poland? And in fact,00:21:00
our f-16s will be serviced in Poland.00:21:06
they say that in reality there00:21:08
are not so many sites and bases in Poland00:21:10
to watch and look after our already00:21:14
f-16s and they are all full of the00:21:18
aircraft of the Poles themselves and the00:21:20
military forces of the United00:21:22
States of America and everything will be adequately in00:21:26
that direction if it is as declared00:21:28
the position that airplanes must work 6100:21:31
machines, I guarantee that all logistics00:21:35
chains, if not already developed, are00:21:37
approaching the completion of their00:21:40
development, in fact.00:21:53
that's why00:21:56
everything like this needs to be endlessly serviced00:21:58
here, I personally don't see00:22:01
any problem, everything will be fixed as it should be00:22:03
for me, for me, you know, such an00:22:06
expert pain. it is necessary00:22:13
to change the course of the war. Well, at least00:22:16
120 machines and most importantly, the nomenclature of00:22:18
weapons. By the way, so far, not a single piece of00:22:21
information.00:22:32
just as with ethics, they are silent because00:22:35
they are conveying something good, maybe it will be the same here. And00:22:37
I share this opinion. I share this opinion,00:22:40
Mr. Peter. If we talk about,00:22:42
today I often mention analysts who00:22:45
draw certain conclusions. German00:22:46
analysts under the government analyzed and well,00:22:50
this is not a discovery of America But again, for00:22:52
another confirmation, we said00:22:54
the following that Russia wants now more than ever00:22:57
the freezing of this war, and in this00:23:00
case00:23:01
we calculated in Germany that it would take approximately00:23:04
six years for the Russian00:23:06
Federation to accumulate troops,00:23:08
roughly 280,000 per year if they were all,00:23:11
and in that case they would be00:23:14
ready and they will have the power to attack00:23:18
NATO countries, we are now talking about the00:23:20
Baltic countries, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, how00:23:22
realistic is it, how much is Putin's plan in00:23:24
mind, and00:23:26
how much is understood in the00:23:28
North Atlantic Alliance, ready or00:23:31
not ready, be afraid, don't be afraid of the00:23:34
madman, you can expect anything,00:23:36
I don't have an honest answer, what00:23:38
can be expected from them? Well, I don't have one. Well, anything can00:23:41
happen. If we talk about a full-fledged00:23:43
combat potential. Well, let's be00:23:44
serious. They can't pass Ukraine, so00:23:46
how can they pass NATO? If such an00:23:49
attack happens conditionally, the Americans will be00:23:51
forced to react immediately. I emphasize00:23:53
immediately and the combat potential of the US army is00:23:56
disproportionate to the potential of the Russian00:23:58
Federation, here we have the Russian-Ukrainian00:24:01
war, they cannot overcome us, how do00:24:04
they want to overcome the most powerful00:24:06
military player that exists in nature in00:24:09
terms of restoring potential, so they00:24:11
will have certain moments to00:24:14
regroup and produce something But00:24:16
again, it is very such complicated00:24:17
mathematics because, let's say,00:24:20
Tu-95 MS Tu-22m3 missile carriers cannot and will not be able to build,00:24:24
it is impossible, they can individually00:24:26
Tu-160, which, by the way, is practically not00:24:28
used in rare cases,00:24:31
it is sharpened mainly under the X555 main00:24:33
missile00:24:34
and it is so complex in its00:24:36
at the beginning of the development in the 80s, it was that00:24:39
they still did not give full00:24:42
answers to all the destructive00:24:45
problems of this machine, the 31st could build, they00:24:48
cannot and will not be able to build the T-72, they cannot00:24:51
and will not be able to. Well if they have already00:24:54
reached the t-55th t-54 t-62 Which is00:24:57
not impossible to build at all, it is simply impossible, the00:24:59
only tank they will be able to build00:25:01
is the t-90, and even then at the moment they exceed the00:25:05
figure of 20-25 machines per month They are00:25:07
still they can't, how will they be able to,00:25:09
of course, they will be able to do something But for00:25:11
them, it is not too much of a headache for them00:25:14
Ukraine is a headache without Ukraine, we have00:25:16
repeatedly repeated this with you00:25:18
personally, it is impossible for the state, it is not00:25:21
possible Well, in the end, if they commit such an00:25:25
act of suicide, I will be honest and even00:25:28
a little cynical to us. He is very beneficial00:25:30
because then Muscovy will be destroyed in a few00:25:33
weeks, Mr. Pedro. If we talk about the00:25:36
trends we see at the front right00:25:38
now, I know very well that00:25:40
forecasting is a matter, not that00:25:43
she is ungrateful, well, that is not the way to00:25:46
forecast from what00:25:48
we currently have among the applications, in fact,00:25:52
if we look at the front now and how it is00:25:54
happening,00:25:55
and the confrontation, what do you expect in the00:25:58
next year? It will continue to be a similar00:26:01
phase of the war with waves of counterattacks from00:26:04
both sides. Can it still be the 24th00:26:07
the year is somehow decisive in this war, it is00:26:10
difficult. You yourself have just correctly00:26:11
emphasized that forecasting in the00:26:13
current mode is00:26:16
divination on coffee grounds, but00:26:19
I will still land this divination00:26:22
and very clearly specify if00:26:25
we collapse the Southern Platform, you00:26:28
showed the map and showed it very correctly with00:26:30
that black strip, our viewer understood00:26:33
what the southern bridgehead is. If we00:26:36
succeed in collapsing it. And this is real. This is not a00:26:38
fantasy, well, it will be a colossal00:26:40
step forward. I00:26:55
do not have to cross the old demarcation line, I am absolutely00:26:58
honest, in order to destroy those00:27:01
fortifications that are there, tens of00:27:04
thousands of tons are needed, not units, not pieces, but tens of00:27:08
thousands of tons of heavy bombs such as gbu 57 600:27:12
TN weighs such as gbu 43 13 TN weighs and00:27:16
the like b1b lнer B2 spiritit can drop such bombs b1b lнer00:27:20
B2 spiritit00:27:23
b yes00:27:24
trtyab52 here are three cars Well, we understand00:27:27
that if they enter in such a mode, then the00:27:30
USA has entered the war, well for me00:27:33
even a person who admits that anything in00:27:35
this world can happen such a scenario00:27:37
is a fantasy for now and Mr. Peter, you00:27:41
also always say that we are proceeding from00:27:43
the reverse, but you say that these00:27:47
fortifications of the old model are00:27:50
only tens of thousands of bombs until February 24. Do I00:27:52
understand correctly that for now we should not00:27:54
give up, but at least postpone the00:27:56
approach to the borders of 1991 very much a00:28:00
difficult question, a very difficult question to00:28:02
which I do not have an honest answer. We00:28:04
cannot, we cannot, in a geopolitical00:28:06
strategic sense, abandon00:28:08
this concept, because if we00:28:10
abandon it, the Russians will accept it00:28:13
exclusively as their victory exclusively, and00:28:15
they say very simply, if not today,00:28:17
then tomorrow if not tomorrow, then the day after tomorrow00:28:19
why Because it is possible Well because it is possible why did this war00:28:22
start because the collective west00:28:24
engulfed Georgia Why did this war begin00:28:27
because Crimea was swallowed up by the same Donbas swallowed up00:28:30
and If we now00:28:32
legitimize such a construct in political philosophy and00:28:34
political thinking, then00:28:36
this is the inevitable next war00:28:39
is inevitable Well, it's just not, but in the end00:28:42
It's inevitable anyway, you know my00:28:43
position, there are five principles, we00:28:45
discussed them here in a neo-Norological way, it can't00:28:48
even be that we have to keep the00:28:52
political philosophy within the borders of 1991,00:28:55
and how it is implemented in business is00:28:58
very interesting to me it's hard to say. By the way, you know my00:29:00
personal concept to recapture00:29:02
Crimea first and it's much easier than recapturing00:29:06
Donbas than recapturing Crimea. The recapture of Crimea can00:29:09
lead to the political collapse of00:29:12
Putin's regime, and the political collapse of00:29:15
Putin's regime can provoke chaos and00:29:18
uncontrollability of the military component, and they00:29:21
themselves will withdraw from there with a gesture of good00:29:23
will But again, we must be realistic00:29:25
if00:29:28
the control of the military component is maintained, so far00:29:31
Donbas is a puzzle that I cannot solve,00:29:34
well actually the former commander of the00:29:36
ground forces of the United States of00:29:37
America in Europe Benhoje will say that whoever00:29:40
owns Crimea will win this00:29:42
war, I share this opinion 100% and the Crimea in the00:29:46
military part is much easier to take a00:29:48
lot of aviation and a lot of long-range00:29:51
missiles, it’s a peninsula, well, the peninsula00:29:54
is taken under full fire control of the cities00:29:56
under water, everything that floats there sinks, everything00:29:59
that flies there goes astray for several months,00:30:01
well, I don’t know what sparrows will be00:30:04
eaten and then there won't be any sparrows because there are00:30:06
no more because winter is coming, man fights, I00:30:09
emphasize, man fights, weapons are a00:30:12
tool to defeat a person, it's not that00:30:14
difficult. for some reason, it00:30:25
seems to me more and more every day that00:30:29
our allies and partners lack the00:30:31
political will to give and help us to00:30:34
de-occupy Crimea as soon as possible. I share this00:30:38
point of view, the issue is now purely political,00:30:40
even psychological. So they00:30:43
are our allies, especially Americans, well, such00:30:46
they are people, they entered the Second00:30:48
World War, they entered the First World War two years00:30:50
after the sinking of the Lozitan ship, and that00:30:53
only because they suddenly intercepted the00:30:56
radio00:30:58
program of Minister Zimmerman, who was giving a00:31:01
radio program to his embassy in Mexico,00:31:03
that they would jam absolutely everything,00:31:06
absolutely everything that moves from the United States to they00:31:09
will sink to continental Europe00:31:11
only then they dared to00:31:13
enter the war, and they entered the Second World War00:31:15
only after the First World War, but only00:31:17
after it, well, they are like that. We can’t00:31:19
cancel it in Churchill. There00:31:22
is a good saying in their case, the Americans00:31:24
will make the right decision, but only00:31:26
then when they try all the rest,00:31:29
they will try everything else, well, such a cruel00:31:32
reality, we will not bypass it And in fact,00:31:34
you asked Churchill, who simply in a00:31:36
terrible state of health sailed00:31:38
to the United States to convince them and00:31:40
constantly talked to them and pressed and pressed and00:31:42
pressed so that they helped in the war, Mr.00:31:45
Peter, thank you very much for this conversation, as00:31:46
always, thank you for your analytics, for00:31:49
your cold-blooded analysis and, without00:31:52
throwing a hat, to realistically assess what is00:31:54
happening on the front of the liberated war of00:31:57
Ukrainians against the Russian invaders. Thank you,00:31:59
thank you. I will remind our viewers that we00:32:02
had military expert Peter Chernyk, you in00:32:05
turn. Do not forget to subscribe,00:32:06
comment, of course, like and00:32:08
share our conversation, because who, like them,00:32:10
Ukrainians should know what is happening00:32:12
on our land and at what cost. Our heroes00:32:14
are fighting for our land. My name is Igor00:32:17
Havreshchak. See you on Channel 24.Description:
Ведучий Ігор Гаврищак разом із військовим експертом Петром Черником обговорили такі теми: – несподівані зміни на фронті; – звільнення Криму вже скоро? – імперія Путіна божеволіє. Підтримати стрім донатом – https://24tvua.diaka.ua/donate 00:05 Початок 00:16 Які політичні цілі реалізовує агресор біля Авдіївки 04:14 Що відбувається на лівому березі Херсонщини? 07:14 Про військову допомогу Україні від союзників 10:02 Від чого залежить швидкість просування ЗСУ 13:24 Як змінить хід війни застосування Україною F16 16:03 Про небезпеку використання агресором РБК-500 18:15 На яких напрямках фронту росіяни можуть атакувати? 20:33 Де заплановане обслуговування F16? 22:41 Чи може Путін атакувати країни НАТО? 25:34 Що принесе 2024 рік? 27:40 Про політичну філософію України у війні з Росією 30:20 Чи є у союзників політична воля допомогти Україні деокупувати Крим?
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