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0:00

Что такое рулетка, как в неё играют

1:04

Как распределяется выигрыш

1:53

Как обыграть казино

2:15

Стратегия Martingale (удвоение)

4:15

Условная вероятность

5:17

Математическое ожидание

6:05

Вероятность Орел и Решка

6:34

Ставка на черное или красное

7:35

Подставной шарик и нечетсный алгоритм

8:22

Ставка на число

9:05

ВЫ МОЖЕТЕ ВЫИГРАТЬ!

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00:00:00

[music]

00:00:06

hello everyone, glad to see you again on the

00:00:09

qwerty channel and today we continue to

00:00:11

study mathematics with you, in particular

00:00:13

we’ll talk about such a thing as how to beat

00:00:15

roulette, but before we talk about it,

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let’s agree what

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roulette is, how sleighs are played, and so

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on this is approximately all the rules,

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just in case, let me remind you, I will talk

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about standard European roulette, that

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is, this is a circle that is divided

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into thirty-seven identical sectors, of

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which 18 red 18 black, the

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numbers from 1 to 36 are written there, respectively, and

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one sector is green fat,

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respectively, if the ball gives out

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to Nazir then the casino takes all the bets,

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let everyone lose, but if it

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falls on a specific number, then

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either this one will play, but Maurice bet on it, or the

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bet, for example, could be on the light on

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red, or for example on even numbers,

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or on numbers that are multiples of three, or on the world

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from 1 to 12 I actually want bets, but

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how is the winnings distributed in this

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case, but again, the most standard

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system is this: let’s say that I bet 1

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ruble and put it on red, in this

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case it returns me 2 rubles, the profit is not

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equal to one ruble because 1 was not given

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back to me two the same bet on

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black the same bet on even and

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odd when I bet on 18 positions out of

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these 37 they return me double in

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places if I bet on 12 positions that is

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on 1 12 or on divisible by three and

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so on there respectively, they return the

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troll’s bet if I

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bet a ruble, they return 3 of my bets,

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and so on, if a

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specific number is left,

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for example, one and it falls out there, it does

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not return 36 times my bet, that

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is, if I bet a ruble, it gives me 36

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rubles, then the question arises Is it

00:01:52

still possible to beat a casino and if so,

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how,

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but I think if you open any entry on the Internet like

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something like how to

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beat roulette, you will find a bunch of articles

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that will tell you what it is,

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of course, you can do it, and so on,

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but I will analyze probably the most popular

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strategy today, I will show that if you are

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a little familiar with mathematics, there are

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such things to conduct degrees

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and the more popular strategy of playing against

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roulette is called nightingale or

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in another way they are called doubling, I think

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many have heard about it, the essence of it is as

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follows, let’s say you bet one ruble

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on black if the bet played won

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if you didn’t play the ruble lost and

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then you bet 2 on black if the bet

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played then how much do you win 2

00:02:33

rubles but you lost the ruble in the previous

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step then you only need a ruble

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if you lost then you lost more

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2 rubles of this 3 bet 4 on black if

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he wins again in profit

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lost bet 8 and so on

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it is clear that sooner or later the black one

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will come up and well, it may not fall out

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indefinitely, which means you will always have your own

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ruble after a certain

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number of games and so on it

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would seem that it would be great or not, but in

00:03:01

fact, if I carefully figure it out,

00:03:03

there will be some problems. The first problem is

00:03:05

that the casinos arrange

00:03:06

they limit the bet, in the sense

00:03:09

that you cannot double the bet

00:03:11

indefinitely, to understand

00:03:12

the casino and also know this strategy, it

00:03:14

would be strange does not respond to it,

00:03:15

therefore, according to the casino standards, you know that the

00:03:17

smallest bet at the table

00:03:18

differs the most from the largest one, let’s say ten

00:03:20

times, so you can double your ruble

00:03:23

once, get 2 rubles, then again,

00:03:24

8 rubles again, and you can’t double it again, the

00:03:27

bet is 16 already it is impossible to understand

00:03:29

that the first bet may not be a ruble,

00:03:31

there are 10 rubles 100 rubles a million rubles

00:03:32

please, but still the largest

00:03:34

the smallest will differ

00:03:35

several times the second point, but in

00:03:38

fact, in fact, let's think

00:03:40

about this and how often

00:03:42

sequences of the form occur in general there, I don’t

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know, 10 times in a row are red, some

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are starting to say that

00:03:47

this strategy can be simplified, so let’s

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wait until nine times red comes up,

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well then it’s unlikely that it’s 10 because the

00:03:53

probability that 10 times in a row

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looks red, if you roughly count to the

00:03:57

probability of getting red 1 2 1 2 in

00:03:59

10 one thousand twenty-four there are

00:04:01

few chances here for reds in a row, so

00:04:04

let’s wait for 9 reds in a row and just

00:04:06

bet on black, well, we’ll almost

00:04:08

certainly win,

00:04:09

you bring good luck so that everything on black

00:04:12

always turns out to be stolen, but here there is a

00:04:14

so-called substitution of concepts, yes, that

00:04:16

is we are changing the concept of the probability of

00:04:17

conditional probability, what am I

00:04:20

really talking about when you have waited for 9 reds in a

00:04:21

row, then you then look not at

00:04:24

the situation there will be 10 in a row, but the situation of

00:04:27

whether there will be 10 in a row, provided that there have

00:04:30

already been 9 in a row and in this case

00:04:32

sometime with the fact that 10 will come up red is

00:04:34

actually exactly the same 1 2 that’s about the same

00:04:36

as for the previous ones, that is, the

00:04:38

ball actually does not have a memory and

00:04:40

just like a Taurus, throw a

00:04:42

coin, what is the probability that your

00:04:44

coin will land heads up 10 times in a row

00:04:46

Well, you are very very small, and now

00:04:49

let’s assume that someone has been waiting for you for

00:04:51

9 times in a row on the powerwall, but he

00:04:53

stays in the throw for a long time and here’s how to

00:04:55

do it, what is the probability that you

00:04:57

will also make a mouth 50 percent

00:05:00

before either heads or heads 10 times? tails

00:05:01

therefore, in fact, this is also a lie

00:05:04

that if you waited for a long

00:05:06

series like there are 9 red 10 black and so

00:05:08

on, then the next one will definitely not be

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red or odd, in fact, with the

00:05:12

same percentage recipe there will be either a

00:05:13

red flank

00:05:14

for the sake of no but One more point is the

00:05:17

concept of mathematical expectation, let’s look at it with you

00:05:19

and understand why this concept

00:05:21

generally debunks the whole game in the wheel,

00:05:22

what is the mathematical expectation, in

00:05:25

fact, roughly speaking, this is the winning

00:05:27

that on average you expect to play this

00:05:29

or that game, if you put it into words

00:05:31

also a roll, that is, let’s say I

00:05:33

have such a simple game, let’s say I don’t know

00:05:35

for you, play a coin and it comes up either

00:05:37

roll or heads, if it comes up and the

00:05:39

robots are not given 200 rubles there, but if

00:05:41

it comes up heads then I give 500 rubles,

00:05:43

that’s how you count in this in games, well,

00:05:46

probably you will all say that no,

00:05:47

because I give t500 and get a200,

00:05:50

while heads and tails fall out equally,

00:05:51

you can calculate more accurately that

00:05:54

to calculate the mathematical expectation you need to

00:05:55

take each situation and

00:05:58

multiply the probability of this situation occurring by

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a win or by a loss and add this one up

00:06:03

in this case, the probability is 2 1 2 and

00:06:06

my winnings will be 201 2 by 200 then 100

00:06:09

and the probability of heads is also 1 2 and check

00:06:13

with me 500 means minus by minus 500 and

00:06:16

multiply by both 2 then -250 and then 100

00:06:19

-250 is minus 150 rubles

00:06:21

is the mathematical expectation of this

00:06:23

game, that is, on average for each round of

00:06:25

such a game I lost 150

00:06:27

in relation to roulette, the

00:06:29

same let’s calculate the mathematical expectation of

00:06:31

each bet, for example, I bet on

00:06:33

black in this case, look, I

00:06:35

have 18 fields 37 which I win, that

00:06:38

is probability 18 30 in the game and 19

00:06:42

remaining fields that I lose 1930

00:06:45

winning that well, I win exactly my

00:06:47

own bet, well,

00:06:48

let’s say I bet a ruble, the profit

00:06:50

will be rubles, and it returns two rubles to me,

00:06:52

but I don’t need it, so the profit from one and

00:06:54

multiply by 18 recipes is in plus and

00:06:56

if I lose I also jump ruble

00:06:59

nose in the forest 1930 means we subtract 19 30

00:07:03

minutes by 1 and get minus one 37 that

00:07:07

is, if I play they bet 1 ruble you on

00:07:10

average about games in one 37 rubles for

00:07:12

each

00:07:13

if I bet there 37 thousand rubles, then I

00:07:15

average thousands of rubles for each game about games,

00:07:17

that is, a bet on black is obviously

00:07:20

losing any bet,

00:07:22

pay attention again, it doesn’t even matter

00:07:25

what happened there before, in fact, I

00:07:26

absolutely don’t care because the ball

00:07:29

has no memory and every time the ball

00:07:31

is thrown again absolutely randomly,

00:07:33

this is if the casino is honest and it doesn’t

00:07:36

make fakes until the ball hits the

00:07:39

magnetic ones somehow, as it

00:07:40

would be convenient for the present if, for example,

00:07:42

we described a not entirely honest algorithm

00:07:44

for an online casino, you

00:07:46

would simply analyze what bets were made and

00:07:48

look where it could choose a ball and

00:07:50

every time we would make sure that the ball

00:07:52

gets there so that we have more and

00:07:53

more, for example, but I will read

00:07:56

that we have roulette fairly, but in this

00:07:58

case, absolutely regardless of the

00:08:00

previous results, it increases until it falls out,

00:08:01

so every time for a rough

00:08:03

rio gram game again and every time this

00:08:05

game is a loss, therefore, in fact, the

00:08:07

game of roulette from a mathematical point of

00:08:09

view about the target for any bet, we can

00:08:11

count the same prefixes for one

00:08:13

specific number until absolutely everything, I

00:08:15

won’t count, but maybe look there it

00:08:16

will be equal to the same if you bet,

00:08:18

for example, one on a specific

00:08:20

sector of 1 ruble then when

00:08:23

this

00:08:24

sector appears you win but its probability is

00:08:27

1 37

00:08:28

and you win how much but

00:08:30

accordingly you will be 36

00:08:32

but at the same time you have already given up one to

00:08:35

win and multiply 3535 by one 30

00:08:37

we get 3530

00:08:39

and you lose highlighted 3630 we

00:08:42

because all sectors except one are not

00:08:44

suitable for you and lose by 1 ruble

00:08:45

we get 35 37 minutes of processions about a miracle -1

00:08:49

May 30 court morality in fact what

00:08:52

exhibition you didn’t do doesn’t matter started 1 and

00:08:54

odd on one sector

00:08:56

and two sectors for black for red,

00:08:58

whatever, you still lose to the casino

00:09:00

on average one 30 and once again at the very

00:09:03

end let's repeat a particularly important

00:09:05

detail

00:09:06

that in a particular round you can

00:09:07

win and of course all these sex stories

00:09:09

because I beat you again lekku, they

00:09:12

may well have some real stories behind them,

00:09:15

but this means that the person simply

00:09:18

stopped at some point, he was lucky at that

00:09:20

moment, but this strategy, if I may say so,

00:09:23

cannot work for a

00:09:25

long time because on average and still

00:09:27

lose on average the game is losing on

00:09:29

well, and please don’t forget about it, I

00:09:32

really hope that knowledge of mathematics

00:09:34

will help you in the future to avoid

00:09:35

financial losses, not only when playing the

00:09:37

battery as we discussed, but also when playing

00:09:39

roulette, so everyone subscribe to our

00:09:42

channel and many more new ones await you

00:09:44

interesting video meetings

00:09:46

[music]

Description:

Почему игра в рулетку заведомо проигрышна с точки зрения математики? В новом выпуске QWERTY Георгий Вольфсон развенчивает укоренившиеся мифы об одной из самых распространенных азартных игр — рулетке. Используя несложный математический инструментарий, он в доступной форме объясняет, почему эта игра заведомо убыточна и почему никакая стратегия не приведет вас к выигрышу. 00:00 Что такое рулетка, как в неё играют 01:04 Как распределяется выигрыш 01:53 Как обыграть казино 02:15 Стратегия Martingale (удвоение) 04:15 Условная вероятность 05:17 Математическое ожидание 06:05 Вероятность Орел и Решка 06:34 Ставка на черное или красное 07:35 Подставной шарик и нечетсный алгоритм 08:22 Ставка на число 09:05 ВЫ МОЖЕТЕ ВЫИГРАТЬ! Подписаться на лучший научпоп на ΥοuTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/qwrtru?sub_confirmation=1 Читать наши улётные новости ВКонтакте: https://vk.com/qwrtru Прокачивать мозг в нашем Instagram: https://www.facebook.com/unsupportedbrowser Следить за нами в Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/unsupportedbrowser Наш telegram @QWERTY_LIVE: https://tele.click/joinchat/AAAAAEXgtlwGpajYh_7_5Q

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