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00:00:08

[music]

00:00:10

I greet the viewers of RTVi This is Dmitry

00:00:14

Lobanov on the air program what was it

00:00:16

where we discuss with experts the events of the

00:00:18

past week Today our guest is an

00:00:22

employee of the Center for Post-Soviet

00:00:24

Studies of the Institute of World Economy

00:00:26

and International Relations Stanislav

00:00:28

Pritchin Stanislav Hello

00:00:30

Hello Well, I would like to start with

00:00:33

The main topic of this week is, of course, the

00:00:35

military operation of Azerbaijan in Nagorno-

00:00:37

Karabakh, which began on September 19 and

00:00:40

essentially ended almost in a day,

00:00:43

in your opinion. Why did Baku go for such an

00:00:46

escalation of the conflict right now? in

00:00:50

fact, we must look at the

00:00:52

complex of events that took place

00:00:54

after The Second Karabakh War, which

00:00:57

in turn radically

00:00:58

changed the status quo around the conflict in

00:01:00

Nagorno-Karabakh. That is, if yes, in

00:01:03

2020, in general, Armenia controlled both

00:01:07

Nagorno-Karabakh itself and 7 regions

00:01:09

around it, and this provided, in principle,

00:01:12

such security for

00:01:14

Karabakh and the population felt it’s

00:01:17

quite comfortable there because, well, this is the

00:01:19

high-mountainous part of the Caucasus ridge of

00:01:21

the Caucasus Mountains and Azerbaijan

00:01:24

essentially lost all the strategic heights

00:01:26

they surrounded Nagorno-Karabakh, the second

00:01:29

Karabakh war, as you know,

00:01:30

ended with the signing of a trilateral

00:01:32

statement with the participation of Vladimir Putin on the

00:01:35

night of November 9-10 and then of course

00:01:38

the situation has changed dramatically

00:01:39

because the deployment only the deployment of

00:01:42

Russian peacekeepers in the region

00:01:44

made it possible to stop the

00:01:46

conflict on its own and not bring it to its

00:01:49

so-called logical conclusion

00:01:52

because Azerbaijan actually

00:01:53

took all the strategic important heights and took the

00:01:56

strategically important city of Shusha over

00:01:59

which there is operational control and

00:02:01

artillery fire coverage of all

00:02:03

the city of Stepanakert

00:02:05

And at that moment there was a fork in the road either to

00:02:08

bring the operation to an end

00:02:10

and, accordingly, with a huge number of

00:02:14

potentially casualties among the civilian

00:02:16

population because not everyone left

00:02:18

Nagorno-Karabakh and in the conditions of such a

00:02:21

fierce conflict it would be very difficult for the

00:02:23

Azerbaijani army to separate

00:02:25

where the civilian population is where the military

00:02:28

taking into account the fact that almost the entire

00:02:30

male part of the population of Nagorno-

00:02:32

Karabakh served in the army to one degree or another.

00:02:34

And at that moment there was a fork in the road until

00:02:38

the conflict stopped, provided that in the

00:02:40

future the situation will be gradually

00:02:42

resolved and relations between Armenia and

00:02:46

Azerbaijan will be normalized and

00:02:49

Russian Peacekeepers remain guarantors of security which were

00:02:51

placed around on the line

00:02:54

of contact of

00:02:55

Nagorno-Karabakh Yes, everyone who

00:02:58

remained there and the Azerbaijani troops

00:03:00

who surrounded us there,

00:03:03

in principle, a road map was developed on how

00:03:05

the situation should have been resolved, this

00:03:08

economic interaction, but

00:03:10

nevertheless, Azerbaijan delimited the

00:03:13

state borders that opened after

00:03:15

the return of the Kilibojar Agdam and

00:03:18

Lachin districts, the opening of transport

00:03:21

corridors, that is, the main meaning of

00:03:24

this tripartite statement, which

00:03:26

was then

00:03:28

gradually developed through tripartite

00:03:31

meetings in January in 2021, regular

00:03:35

meetings at the level of deputy prime ministers, that

00:03:36

the Economy should become the bridge

00:03:38

that will allow Armenia and Azerbaijan to

00:03:41

move to the post-conflict stage of

00:03:43

relations and gradually, through the economy

00:03:45

through mutual interests, begin to

00:03:48

gradually move into normal

00:03:51

relations.

00:03:52

But what went wrong, what went wrong at the

00:03:56

first stage, everything

00:03:58

developed quite dynamically; expert meetings were created

00:04:02

under the ministries of transport; in fact,

00:04:05

all transport routes were selected; the

00:04:08

issue of delimiting the

00:04:10

use of military cards that were

00:04:12

preserved was discussed in the Ministry of Defense of the

00:04:14

Russian Federation in

00:04:15

1975 of the Soviet period, which

00:04:18

determined, but at that time, the

00:04:21

approximate border between the Armenian and

00:04:24

Azerbaijani USSR, that is, in principle,

00:04:25

the package was quite clear and clear

00:04:28

what needed to be done.

00:04:31

And here it was that the cruel joke played out

00:04:35

that the

00:04:36

Armenian society is very difficult

00:04:37

was going through a conflict and any further

00:04:41

agreements with Azerbaijan would bring

00:04:45

additional negativity from Pashinyan, who had

00:04:48

such a hard time staying in power after the

00:04:50

Second Karabakh War,

00:04:53

early parliamentary elections were held in the summer, which

00:04:55

Pashinyan needed to

00:04:57

reset the internal political

00:04:59

situation. Yes, and now to shake off this

00:05:02

dirt, the defeat of the second Karabakh

00:05:04

war is quite enough for him It was successful,

00:05:06

of course, with electoral losses and, in

00:05:10

principle, this is also an additional

00:05:12

argument that did not allow Armenia to

00:05:14

go further because, in principle, Pashinyan won back the

00:05:16

situation for himself; he remained in

00:05:19

power even after the defeat and, in principle,

00:05:22

he has a political motivation to

00:05:24

move somewhere further and agree with something

00:05:27

else with Azerbaijan with Turkey Well, it wasn’t

00:05:30

exactly strategically interesting, that is,

00:05:32

you want to say that he seemed to be slowing down. It turns out that a

00:05:34

peaceful resolution of all this

00:05:38

conflict, yes, that is, here is the road

00:05:40

map that was proposed to the Russian

00:05:42

Federation and in fact everything is

00:05:43

already at the expert level were

00:05:45

transport routes developed where

00:05:47

they should pass where border crossings should be built the

00:05:52

latest statement regulated

00:05:53

how

00:05:55

the transit of goods between Azerbaijan and

00:05:57

Nakhichevani should be carried out through the so-called

00:05:59

Zangizur corridor through Meghri city and

00:06:02

Azerbaijan insisted that there

00:06:04

should be symmetry down there If you have

00:06:06

Lachin corridor unhindered

00:06:07

connections between Armenia and Nagorno-

00:06:10

Karabakh that We also

00:06:11

have a connection through your territory from Nakhichevan,

00:06:13

but there was no progress and

00:06:16

in fact Yes, they made

00:06:19

no progress on delimitation either along the

00:06:21

transport corridors. Armenia

00:06:23

insisted that the Migra corridors are

00:06:25

beneficial to me, they need

00:06:28

connect the railway in the area in the north of the Republic

00:06:30

because the railway that

00:06:33

runs through the south of Armenia is actually

00:06:35

excluded from the

00:06:38

internal transport system, that is,

00:06:40

it would actually work only for

00:06:41

Azerbaijan. Well, every time some

00:06:44

such arguments appeared and were

00:06:46

actually blocked on the Armenian side there was a

00:06:48

solution to all these issues,

00:06:51

today Azerbaijan has

00:06:52

already built almost all the roads on the border with

00:06:54

Armenia in order to just wait for

00:06:56

this issue to be resolved and start building

00:06:58

on the Armenian side. Yes, I’ll just remind you

00:07:00

that since December last year, Azerbaijan

00:07:03

has essentially been blockading Nagorno-Karabakh And

00:07:06

we all know what kind of situation there was,

00:07:08

almost a humanitarian crisis, now

00:07:10

this military operation actually happened,

00:07:12

but I would like to ask you now

00:07:13

about Russia’s general reaction to

00:07:17

this whole story because, as we know,

00:07:20

Azerbaijan stated that Russia was

00:07:22

warned, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs a little later announced that they were

00:07:25

warned, but only for a few minutes

00:07:28

before the start of the military operation and this

00:07:31

factor of Russian peacekeepers who, in

00:07:33

theory, were supposed to maintain peace in

00:07:37

the region, could they really

00:07:39

do anything

00:07:42

about the Latin corridor? I can’t help but

00:07:44

answer because, in principle,

00:07:46

Azerbaijan insisted to the last

00:07:49

that Well, the logic is such symmetry.

00:07:52

If you have communication with the

00:07:56

land corridor between Armenia and

00:07:59

Nagorno-Karabakh, we should

00:08:00

have the same thing. The Armenian side

00:08:03

failed to achieve this.

00:08:06

As a result, before the start of the war,

00:08:09

they opened this corridor,

00:08:11

Azerbaijan,

00:08:12

in principle on the part of Azerbaijan, this, in

00:08:15

principle, has always worked to supply the

00:08:17

Russian peacekeeping contingent,

00:08:19

here you understand what is the story with the

00:08:22

Latin corridor, especially that

00:08:24

at some point Pashinyan simply

00:08:27

stopped

00:08:28

supporting the Russian

00:08:30

negotiation track and, for example, there should have been

00:08:36

trilateral ministerial meetings last December for

00:08:39

several days

00:08:41

the Armenian simply did not come there, he said

00:08:43

that he had other things to do there, and the appearance of

00:08:47

the European track and the

00:08:49

American negotiating track in general through the

00:08:50

mediation of the American European Union,

00:08:52

they all happened precisely

00:08:54

because Armenia considered that

00:08:56

if it changed the platform for negotiations,

00:09:00

it would be possible for its disposition, its

00:09:03

negotiating position will improve and support there,

00:09:06

say, for France in Europe and American

00:09:10

Armenian lobbyists allow Armenia to

00:09:12

feel more confident in

00:09:14

negotiations

00:09:15

with Azerbaijan, but in the end

00:09:18

Armenia miscalculated because it was

00:09:21

on the European track that a

00:09:23

proposal for a Peace Treaty appeared

00:09:26

in the Russian negotiation room, as it were, the position

00:09:30

of this there was no Because with the understanding of

00:09:33

international relations, a peace treaty

00:09:34

is a comprehensive document that

00:09:36

completes the resolution of all conflict and

00:09:40

disputable situations, that is, the treaty

00:09:42

assumes that on the border you

00:09:43

agreed, it is delimitedly

00:09:45

dismantled; on transport,

00:09:47

you agreed on diplomatic relations; you have there the

00:09:49

whole package of necessary

00:09:50

regulatory and legal documents that

00:09:52

needed for bilateral contacts, they

00:09:54

exist and you sign the Peace Agreement, we

00:09:56

all have no claims to each other,

00:09:58

we move on, here there were only

00:10:01

principles, Yes, territorial integrity to

00:10:03

each other, five more principles that

00:10:05

Azerbaijan outlined and that’s all, but for

00:10:07

Azerbaijan it was, in principle, it

00:10:09

was and it is enough to recognize the

00:10:10

territorial integrity,

00:10:11

respectively, to recognize the sovereignty of

00:10:13

Azerbaijan in Nagorno-Karabakh, and as

00:10:15

we all know, Armenia supported this on

00:10:17

one of the tracks; accordingly,

00:10:19

in such disposition conditions, the legal

00:10:23

justification for the presence of Russian

00:10:24

peacekeepers has completely changed. That

00:10:26

is, if until this moment they

00:10:28

were in the region, according to the

00:10:30

basis of the trilateral statement, then here

00:10:33

new points appeared that changed

00:10:35

several situations. That is, in principle,

00:10:37

Nagorno-Karabakh was recognized as the territory of

00:10:39

Azerbaijan, respectively, any asset

00:10:42

even in Nagorno-Karabakh itself and around

00:10:44

Nagorno-Karabakh is the sovereign right of

00:10:47

Azerbaijan, that is, the Peacekeepers

00:10:49

could not do anything, so we

00:10:51

will talk separately, that is, here in -first

00:10:54

about the Latin corridor Yes, it

00:10:55

is located on the territory of

00:10:57

Azerbaijan, respectively, this is the

00:11:00

sovereign right of the republic To engage in the

00:11:02

establishment of

00:11:04

checkpoints and this was Azerbaijan’s response

00:11:07

to the fact that the Zangizur corridor is not

00:11:09

moving forward in any way And there is no land

00:11:11

communication between Azerbaijan in

00:11:14

Nakhichevan That is, in principle, this is what

00:11:16

there was a position, but at the same time, Russian

00:11:19

Peacekeepers also passed through and cars of the

00:11:22

International Red Cross

00:11:24

until they were caught in the fact that they were

00:11:26

engaged in smuggling there. For their

00:11:28

part, Azerbaijan seemed to

00:11:31

consistently offer another road

00:11:34

through Agdam, I insist that well, since

00:11:37

this is part of Azerbaijan, then let's take the

00:11:38

closest road to us, it

00:11:41

happens through Agdam, but in

00:11:43

your opinion, it justifies even these All the

00:11:45

protracted disputes. Let it be on the part of

00:11:48

Armenia, which may

00:11:50

have slowed down all this, does this justify the start of a

00:11:52

military operation where they actually died,

00:11:56

including civilians here, it’s

00:11:59

hard for me to say answer justified

00:12:02

unjustifiably in parallel On the morning of the

00:12:05

start of the operation in Azerbaijan, a

00:12:08

car with police officers was not blown up by us and

00:12:10

7 people were killed in total, according to statistics

00:12:14

from the

00:12:16

end of the conflict, over the past three

00:12:19

years about 200 people were injured

00:12:22

by mines and some of

00:12:25

these mines were installed after

00:12:26

the end The Second Karabakh War That

00:12:29

is, in principle, well, it’s like it’s basically a

00:12:31

gray zone. The mountainous area has

00:12:33

the possibility of laying mines and regularly the

00:12:36

military and civilian Azerbaijanis

00:12:39

undermined them, so let’s

00:12:41

say with such an emotional message and

00:12:43

the beginning of the

00:12:45

anti-terrorist operation as

00:12:47

Azerbaijan called it, there was a question with the fact that

00:12:51

military policemen got into a fight. I apologize

00:12:54

about the

00:12:56

legitimacy of the illegitimacy of the start of

00:12:58

the operation. In the fourth paragraph, the

00:13:01

truce statement states that simultaneously with the

00:13:04

entry of Russian peacekeepers from

00:13:07

Nagorno-Karabakh, all

00:13:09

Armed associations are being withdrawn. Yes, and

00:13:11

military equipment is being withdrawn; this point was not

00:13:14

fulfilled, that is, in the area of responsibility of the

00:13:18

Russian peacekeepers, well here it is important

00:13:20

to say that the area of responsibility is very

00:13:22

large. That is, it is about three thousand

00:13:24

square kilometers. Mountainous terrain, let me

00:13:26

remind you that there were

00:13:28

less than two thousand Russian peacekeepers and

00:13:30

they were mostly equipped with small arms.

00:13:33

Yes, and several armored personnel carriers for moving

00:13:37

several dozen

00:13:39

KP points were around Nagorno-Karabakh

00:13:42

along the roads, respectively. Well, how if the

00:13:44

main task of the Russian peacekeepers

00:13:47

is not a regular army. Yes, it is not

00:13:50

provided with aviation or reconnaissance or

00:13:53

heavy weapons; it is an observational

00:13:56

largely

00:13:58

limited contingent, which, in

00:14:00

principle, is located by the good will of the two

00:14:03

conflicting parties who, by signing a

00:14:05

document, guarantee their safety, that

00:14:08

is, this is the

00:14:09

peacekeeping mission If there was a

00:14:12

task to conditionally create such a powerful

00:14:16

contingent that its

00:14:18

presence could actually be

00:14:21

compared in power with the Azerbaijani-

00:14:22

Armenian one, it would be a completely different

00:14:24

story here, that is, we see that a

00:14:27

limited number of Russian

00:14:28

peacekeepers who, even in the conditions of the

00:14:31

beginning of the Azerbaijani special operation,

00:14:33

carried out their mission

00:14:36

rescued civilians, evacuated until

00:14:38

now, most of the noticeable part of the people

00:14:40

is

00:14:41

at the Stepanakert airport where the main

00:14:44

base of Russian peacekeepers is located. That

00:14:46

is, even in the conditions of this complex

00:14:48

conflict, yes. They continued to fulfill

00:14:51

their duties and saved people. Why

00:14:54

were they actually there, that is,

00:14:57

here at all? in principle, it’s as if

00:14:58

the situation has changed radically

00:15:00

and now the rhetoric of the same Pashinyan yes That

00:15:03

is, even at the Security Council he spoke of

00:15:04

our regular troops in Nagorno-

00:15:07

Karabakh, there are no on the border of Armenia with

00:15:10

Azerbaijan everything is calm but the Russian

00:15:12

Peacekeepers are bad, they do not fulfill their

00:15:14

obligations, that is, Azerbaijan with For

00:15:16

its part, Armenia, for its part, the

00:15:18

leadership of Armenia actually dreamed that they were

00:15:20

responsible for what was

00:15:21

happening in mountainous Karabakh, but the

00:15:24

Russian peacekeepers were blamed for everything

00:15:25

because they did not fulfill their obligations.

00:15:28

Although, as if in the conditions when Pashinya, I

00:15:30

understood that this territory of

00:15:32

Azerbaijan is, in principle, very difficult to

00:15:34

imagine act as differently as possible

00:15:36

other than

00:15:38

saving the civilian

00:15:40

population because, well, in military terms,

00:15:42

the Russian peacekeepers

00:15:44

could not oppose anything to the Azerbaijani army.

00:15:45

But here’s a separate story about the Russian

00:15:48

peacekeepers, we know that the Azerbaijani

00:15:51

military killed at least four

00:15:53

peacekeepers, this was admitted by Aliyev, one of By

00:15:56

the way, Colonel This event

00:15:59

will somehow affect

00:16:01

Russian-Azerbaijani relations in general.

00:16:02

Because at the end of the second Karabakh

00:16:05

war there was a Russian helicopter shot down by

00:16:07

Azerbaijan, but in principle, somehow

00:16:09

everything was released on the brakes. Now it will

00:16:11

also be received then it was important. It was

00:16:15

direct on the eve of the signing of the trilateral

00:16:17

statement That is, this happened

00:16:19

literally in a few hours and at that

00:16:21

time, of course, the

00:16:22

political situation was

00:16:25

so fragile that it was important

00:16:28

to stop the conflict in order to cause

00:16:31

casualties among the civilian population,

00:16:32

first of all in mountainous Karabakh, here of

00:16:34

course the situation is

00:16:37

very tragic because

00:16:40

those photographs that we see

00:16:43

of the shelling of the car were also from the

00:16:47

side where there was a sign that these were

00:16:49

peacekeeping forces,

00:16:51

according to the data that we

00:16:54

see from the Azerbaijani press, the

00:16:57

explanation is that they were not seen, it was

00:17:01

Twilight Mountainous terrain and they thought that

00:17:03

they were going to a military formation

00:17:06

formation

00:17:07

Nagorno-Karabakh

00:17:11

and, as far as we know, the commander of

00:17:14

this group, which at that time

00:17:16

oversaw this area, was removed from

00:17:20

service and a criminal case was opened here from

00:17:24

Moscow, you think, but what are you

00:17:27

proposing here? Shoot the same

00:17:30

number of Azerbaijani soldiers No, I’m

00:17:33

just talking about the reaction, let

00:17:34

’s say those the same Russian journalists, the

00:17:36

same Margarita Simonyan, who

00:17:38

actually was not very satisfied with

00:17:41

the answer and who demanded something

00:17:43

more, I’m speaking from the position of I’m interested in

00:17:46

what she means more there, handing over

00:17:49

these people here for speeches, I do

00:17:52

n’t quite understand from an international point of view

00:17:53

rights even if

00:17:55

Azerbaijan admits that people made a

00:17:57

mistake there and will judge them according to

00:18:00

Azerbaijani laws. Of course, we can

00:18:02

submit

00:18:05

legal possibilities to

00:18:07

deport us, but I think that

00:18:10

this is hardly possible from the point of view of the

00:18:12

legislation of Azerbaijan, that is,

00:18:14

that Margarita Simonyan here wants

00:18:17

us to answer there I I don’t know if they launched a missile

00:18:19

or what, I wonder when

00:18:22

journalists allow themselves to make such statements,

00:18:24

that they are investing in the fact that

00:18:26

we need more, more blood, more of

00:18:29

which is not entirely clear to me. Therefore,

00:18:31

I’ll leave this without comment,

00:18:33

as if from the point of view it

00:18:36

’s just that these people will be able to answer you that

00:18:39

every time after such incidents Russia

00:18:42

simply silently turns away and turns a blind

00:18:44

eye to these deaths, no one

00:18:48

turns away no one turns a blind eye

00:18:49

to these deaths, the Russian

00:18:51

Investigative Committee and the Prosecutor General’s Office,

00:18:54

together with the Azerbaijanis, are investigating

00:18:56

this case and I hope that it will be

00:18:59

as transparent as possible including for

00:19:01

Russian society, that is, Let's

00:19:03

wait for the

00:19:04

investigation in which

00:19:06

Russian investigative authorities are also involved.

00:19:08

This is the first point, the second point is that there is an

00:19:12

admission of a mistake to the Azerbaijanis and there is

00:19:14

a call from the president, there is a readiness of

00:19:16

Azerbaijan to provide, including

00:19:17

material, material support to the

00:19:20

families who died tragically.

00:19:22

there is, well, from a

00:19:24

diplomatic legal point of view, I’m not

00:19:28

saying that this is a complete exhaustion

00:19:30

of the situation, but it is clear that people cannot be returned. There is

00:19:34

no way to respond

00:19:37

to aggression in this situation,

00:19:39

complicate the work and stay of the Russian

00:19:41

peacekeepers who are there, they have been

00:19:43

fulfilling their mission for at least two

00:19:45

years they will still be there

00:19:47

to escalate the situation now if we

00:19:50

follow the lead of the people who are

00:19:52

now calling on us to quarrel with Azerbaijan and

00:19:54

go there, we are dooming those people who

00:19:56

remained in Nagorno-Karabakh who

00:19:58

want to leave to a very difficult situation

00:20:02

because there are still

00:20:05

conflict points there And the second point is that

00:20:07

we put in a very difficult position the

00:20:10

peacekeepers who remained there, of whom

00:20:12

there are almost 2,000, but what do you

00:20:15

think after the end of this

00:20:17

special operation of Azerbaijan, will

00:20:20

Russian peacekeepers be extradited from this

00:20:22

region? Because the same Baku can

00:20:24

say that we did everything and yours

00:20:27

We don’t need services. Well, at least

00:20:30

it’s a tripartite statement; no

00:20:33

one has left it; it’s valid until

00:20:36

November 2025, that is, it’s valid for

00:20:40

five years and for six months, if one of the

00:20:44

parties does not object; in this

00:20:46

case, the participants are

00:20:48

Yerevan and Baku, then for another five years the

00:20:51

mandate of Russian peacekeepers is being extended,

00:20:52

this is what the legal

00:20:55

picture looks like, so at least the Peacekeepers

00:20:59

will be there until November 2025, and from the point of view of

00:21:03

Azerbaijan, in fact, this is even

00:21:05

positive and no one is going to

00:21:07

push them out of there, saying that they

00:21:10

should leave. Because now in many ways it is

00:21:12

important for Azerbaijan to save face,

00:21:16

including in the international arena,

00:21:17

to show that the main goal was, after all, the

00:21:20

Armed Association

00:21:23

remaining in Nagorno-Karabakh, which

00:21:26

should, according to the

00:21:28

tripartite statement, be

00:21:31

disbanded and disbanded

00:21:32

And now the question of gradual integration and

00:21:37

this is a rather sensitive topic and

00:21:40

quite complex because

00:21:42

for 30 years, people lived on opposite

00:21:44

sides of the trench of trenches, naturally

00:21:47

viewed each other as enemies and

00:21:50

propaganda was all working and the

00:21:51

state machine is now a

00:21:53

completely new reality, and those people

00:21:56

who want to stay on their land,

00:21:58

I mean the Armenian population of

00:22:00

Nagorno-Karabakh, they already have it now

00:22:03

It’s a big dilemma to stay here and

00:22:06

try to integrate into the new

00:22:09

realities. Yes, and or leave this region,

00:22:12

as it were, a lot here now will

00:22:13

depend on the extent

00:22:15

to which those statements by Baku regarding the

00:22:20

amnesty yesterday, for example, were made and from the

00:22:23

administration of President Aliyev about

00:22:25

what the amnesty itself is considering for the

00:22:30

men participating in the conflict even in the second Karabakh war, respectively,

00:22:32

and no one will persecute them from the point

00:22:35

of view of Azerbaijani law, how

00:22:38

will this happen in terms of huge

00:22:41

functions there need to be organized on the ground

00:22:44

by police, public order if for

00:22:47

products for communications for water for gas

00:22:50

Azerbaijan in in this regard, everything will be able

00:22:53

to be provided because most of

00:22:54

the infrastructure passes through the territory of

00:22:56

Azerbaijan, respectively Azerbaijan,

00:22:58

now the maximum task is to provide

00:23:00

people with all the humanitarian convoys have

00:23:03

left, another question is how it will be in

00:23:06

practice, yes, that is, the legal system is

00:23:08

completely different, people will need to

00:23:11

register with the

00:23:13

Azerbaijani in all Azerbaijani

00:23:16

herds, state social

00:23:18

security bodies. That is, this is really a

00:23:20

very difficult task. Yes, the simple question

00:23:23

of integration is that, again, there

00:23:24

has been a Blockade since December and,

00:23:27

in fact, this is a military operation; casualties

00:23:29

among civilians there, according to various estimates, are

00:23:31

almost up to 200, that’s how much it

00:23:35

will be pleasant for the residents of Nagorno-Karabakh to

00:23:37

realize that now Azerbaijan has come

00:23:39

and we will live according to

00:23:41

Azerbaijani laws.

00:23:44

But these are realities, you can’t do anything with them,

00:23:48

that is, that is, as

00:23:50

Aliyev said, either agree or leave. Well,

00:23:53

people have only this choice. That is, even

00:23:55

Armenia does not object to the fact that this

00:23:58

territory of Azerbaijan, accordingly,

00:24:00

people have

00:24:01

only two choices: either stay and Yes, with

00:24:07

fears, with fear, integrate into the

00:24:10

Azerbaijani state system

00:24:12

into society or leave; there are no other options, there are

00:24:16

no fears, not groundless in your

00:24:18

opinion. It’s difficult for me to say because

00:24:21

Judging by

00:24:22

those statements made by

00:24:25

Azerbaijani officials, that is, they

00:24:27

say as much as possible that

00:24:30

security guarantees will be provided,

00:24:32

we have not seen how this will be in practice.

00:24:35

Therefore, here the presence of Russian

00:24:38

peacekeepers is an important element,

00:24:41

including this psychological one,

00:24:44

in particular for people who

00:24:46

want to stay, and this also an important

00:24:49

element Well, yes, Azerbaijani officials will

00:24:51

understandably say that everything will be fine, but

00:24:53

as we understand after the first Karabakh

00:24:55

war in the early nineties there was a huge

00:24:58

exodus of Azerbaijanis and, as I understand it, the

00:25:01

Karabakh Kurds, now the picture is

00:25:04

actually the opposite and again

00:25:06

the fears that haunt the residents of

00:25:08

Nagorno-Karabakh are again could there

00:25:12

be ethnic cleansings? And even if they don’t

00:25:15

happen, will there be seeds left for

00:25:18

future inter-ethnic conflicts? But it’s

00:25:21

hard to say because, in

00:25:23

principle, the level of bitterness and this

00:25:26

gap between the Armenian and

00:25:28

Azerbaijani societies is huge.

00:25:30

And as we have already discussed, these 30 years

00:25:35

They are of course and the question even there is not

00:25:38

propaganda and ideology, the question is that

00:25:42

almost every family there either

00:25:44

lost someone or lost land,

00:25:47

respectively. Well, from the point of view of the

00:25:49

Azerbaijani-Armenian society, this is a

00:25:52

big tragedy and a big wound that

00:25:54

heals very hard and, accordingly,

00:25:56

of course

00:25:57

for the

00:25:59

people in Nagorno-Karabakh this is a very

00:26:04

big

00:26:05

psychological moral choice to stay

00:26:07

here on their land or to leave and go to a

00:26:11

zone where it might be safer. But

00:26:15

this will no longer be their homeland, of course,

00:26:18

God forbid anyone should

00:26:21

experience such a life choice.

00:26:23

You were talking before about the reaction of Europe,

00:26:25

here is the European Union in particular, after the start of the

00:26:27

military operation, he spoke and

00:26:30

speaks out about the introduction of sanctions

00:26:32

against Azerbaijan, to the extent

00:26:34

possible, given that Azerbaijan

00:26:37

supplies gas to Europe, but even if there are

00:26:41

all sanctions, they can

00:26:43

imagine how Europe can hit in the

00:26:46

side. To be honest, I’m with I have a hard time

00:26:49

imagining this, yes, that is, in this regard, the

00:26:50

European Union can make sharp

00:26:53

statements, but in terms of some kind of determination of

00:26:55

some steps, the European Union

00:26:58

can do little, especially since, as you

00:27:00

mentioned, some of the

00:27:05

southern countries of the European Union are seriously dependent on

00:27:07

gas supplies from Azerbaijan and the

00:27:09

Caspian basin, respectively,

00:27:11

here sanctions can only affect the

00:27:15

oil and gas sector of the main sphere of

00:27:17

interaction between the

00:27:19

European Union and Azerbaijan. But

00:27:21

this will be a blow primarily to the

00:27:23

European Union itself and to the

00:27:25

European companies British petroleum

00:27:27

Total and other companies that

00:27:30

work there, therefore, from this point In terms of

00:27:31

sanctions, I can hardly imagine this,

00:27:33

of course everyone’s reaction was quite

00:27:37

sharp, but no one went over again to

00:27:40

the call for sanctions, the call to

00:27:44

isolate Azerbaijan as much as possible. That

00:27:47

is, everyone approximately understood that especially the

00:27:50

European Union was the mediator of these

00:27:52

negotiations at which Armenia recognized the

00:27:55

territorial integrity of Azerbaijan

00:27:56

and from the point of view of

00:27:58

political consistency, a

00:28:00

draft peace treaty was developed on your site,

00:28:03

you yourself were witnesses and you yourself

00:28:05

were mediators of these agreements. And

00:28:07

now you want to punish Azerbaijan

00:28:09

for its operation on its own territory,

00:28:11

which is recognized. You are witnesses on your site. That’s why this is

00:28:14

here. from this

00:28:16

point of view regarding ethnic cleansing,

00:28:18

well, in

00:28:20

general, the term ethnic cleansing has been heard since the

00:28:24

first Karabakh war, but it

00:28:28

was also directed against the

00:28:29

Azerbaijani population, because these seven

00:28:32

regions that surrounded Karabakh

00:28:35

were not populated by Armenians, they were populated by

00:28:38

Azerbaijanis, Azerbaijanis

00:28:40

sometimes fled in terrible winter conditions On the

00:28:44

mountain paths of the Klimajar region,

00:28:46

for example, yes. That is, an

00:28:48

unfavorable situation developed; the troops retreated and

00:28:50

simply the villages were left with the choice of

00:28:53

either fleeing or dying because there were

00:28:55

ethnic cleansings in the first

00:28:57

Karabakh wars, including on the

00:29:00

Armenian side. Therefore, here it is

00:29:02

civilian the population died in the second

00:29:06

Karabakh war. Such terrible things

00:29:09

were not recorded

00:29:12

in any direct case so that this would be a

00:29:13

precedent for an international

00:29:16

investigation, so here this is

00:29:18

mostly rhetoric for now and It is clear

00:29:22

Mainly from the Armenian side because

00:29:23

they are now in a vulnerable

00:29:26

position before the Armenians Nagorno-Karabakh and,

00:29:27

accordingly,

00:29:29

any change in the situation, they are trying to

00:29:32

call for this to attract as

00:29:34

much attention as possible from the international

00:29:35

community, including by talking about the fact

00:29:38

that the purges have already begun, so far,

00:29:41

in fact, Yes, from a military point of view,

00:29:44

Azerbaijan From yesterday until it

00:29:47

controls the contours of Nagorno-Karabakh,

00:29:51

there are victims among civilian population Yes,

00:29:54

but 200 people are wounded, about 30

00:29:59

people died Yes, and of these, according to the latest

00:30:02

statistics, 5-7 are civilians, that

00:30:05

is, representatives over the city of Karabakh

00:30:07

say that exactly 200 died, 200

00:30:09

died, but there is no confirmation of this,

00:30:10

Russian Peacekeepers, we claimed that

00:30:12

200 people died they are the only ones who are

00:30:15

there, neutral people who are

00:30:17

precisely engaged in helping

00:30:19

people avoid

00:30:22

injury to avoid some kind of

00:30:25

acute situations. You spoke before about the

00:30:27

amnesty that the Azerbaijani authorities promise to

00:30:29

all participants in the conflicts

00:30:32

in Nagorno-Karabakh, but at the same time

00:30:34

there was news that During the negotiations in

00:30:37

Baku, I handed over to the authorities of Karabakh a list of people

00:30:40

whom they expect to be handed over to them

00:30:43

so that they can then be tried. Apparently,

00:30:47

my question is what do you think about

00:30:49

this news itself and is it worth saying

00:30:51

to fear some kind of persecution by the

00:30:54

authorities of the unrecognized Republic there already

00:30:56

Rubin Vardanyan, who

00:30:58

has spoken out more than once on this entire situation in

00:31:01

the region. Well, yes, there are a number of people who

00:31:05

are considered by Azerbaijan as

00:31:07

the leaders of Nagorno-Karabakh. And in fact, there is

00:31:12

such hostility and

00:31:14

persecution on the part of Azerbaijan,

00:31:16

which is also indicated

00:31:19

here in the legal list

00:31:21

determined not only by their political

00:31:24

position, but in many ways by those actions and

00:31:28

those calls that were heard from the

00:31:30

leaders, including the trumpet against Vardanyan,

00:31:32

that is, when he

00:31:35

headed the government of Nagorno-

00:31:37

Karabakh, of course, he proceeded from the fact that

00:31:40

he, as an official, is one of the opinion leaders of

00:31:45

Nagorno-Karabakh with broad with connections

00:31:48

abroad in the Armenian diaspora, he will be able to

00:31:51

turn the situation around, consolidate, give

00:31:54

hope to

00:31:55

Karabakh that there are some

00:31:57

other options other than integration in

00:32:01

Nagorno-Karabakh. Well,

00:32:04

I haven’t seen the evidence base. What kind of evidence does

00:32:08

Azerbaijan consider as

00:32:09

arguments why it is persecuting certain

00:32:12

people Yes, some of the people, of course, are not, to

00:32:15

one degree or another, involved in some kind of

00:32:18

crime, including against the

00:32:20

Azerbaijani civilian population,

00:32:21

and that is, here you need to specifically

00:32:23

look by last name and see

00:32:25

how much these people were involved in the

00:32:27

conflict there. Therefore, I haven’t seen the list itself

00:32:30

and I can’t tell you what the

00:32:33

base is. The basis for this is the top

00:32:35

authorities of Nagorno-Karabakh, even the former. Is it

00:32:38

worth fearing persecution at all?

00:32:41

We have seen precedents. When a

00:32:46

veteran of the first Karabakh war was arrested in the Latin corridor

00:32:49

and is suspected of

00:32:51

participating in

00:32:54

war crimes. That is, an

00:32:57

investigation is now underway. his involvement is being proven,

00:32:59

that is, in this regard, we

00:33:01

see precedents.

00:33:02

Azerbaijan is trying to act here

00:33:04

within the framework of international law.

00:33:06

Yes, as far as I understand, there is

00:33:09

consular access for

00:33:11

foreign diplomats. Well, this is roughly

00:33:16

what the situation looks like, so I

00:33:18

can’t tell you definitely

00:33:20

how the situation will unfold and

00:33:23

whether something threatens the

00:33:25

current former leader of Nagorno-

00:33:27

Karabakh after Azerbaijan

00:33:30

essentially got what it wanted. Is it worth waiting for

00:33:32

some kind of warming in

00:33:35

relations between Armenia and

00:33:37

Azerbaijan, I don’t know, the signing of the same peace

00:33:39

treaty or the situation will be in such a

00:33:41

frozen form in your opinion

00:33:43

with On the one hand, there is restrained optimism;

00:33:46

in principle, this optimism

00:33:49

was restrained after the Second Karabakh War, that

00:33:51

is, it would seem that the countries, through the

00:33:53

conflict through the loss of people through

00:33:57

tragic events,

00:33:58

passed a certain point and with

00:34:01

mediation there was no hope

00:34:04

that it would be possible to turn the situation around. I

00:34:06

personally was a great optimist, we

00:34:08

conducted research with colleagues with the

00:34:10

participation of both Azerbaijani and

00:34:12

Armenian experts, we conducted

00:34:13

expert surveys and despite

00:34:17

such a difficult emotional situation.

00:34:20

Especially on the Armenian side in terms of

00:34:22

loss in terms of loss of life,

00:34:25

optimism was clearly visible in the expectation

00:34:28

that we would be able to overcome the conflict

00:34:31

unfortunately failed and we see that,

00:34:35

in fact, we are now again before the

00:34:38

anti-terrorist operation. But before the

00:34:40

latest events, the situation was much

00:34:42

worse than finally the second Karabakh

00:34:45

war. Now, on the one hand, the most

00:34:47

acute point, namely, the

00:34:51

military tension around Nagorno-Karabakh. It

00:34:54

has come to naught, that is Stepanaker admitted

00:34:57

Which eliminates

00:35:00

the possibility of using forces Yes, they

00:35:03

are being disbanded Yes And as if there is

00:35:05

no military threat, it is clear that any

00:35:07

actions of the Azerbaijani authorities will be

00:35:09

viewed through a magnifying glass in Armenia

00:35:12

abroad from the point of view of Well,

00:35:15

look, we told you that blacks

00:35:17

will be lynched there Well, I’m speaking conditionally but from the point of

00:35:20

view of interstate

00:35:23

relations, we see even from Yerevan

00:35:27

certain signals that Well,

00:35:29

now we can already agree on some things

00:35:31

and agree there on the border,

00:35:33

for example on transport, and that is, well, it’s like

00:35:35

the most pressing issue no, for

00:35:37

Pashinyan’s team, in principle, the situation is now

00:35:41

quite comfortable in this regard,

00:35:43

that there is no this case of

00:35:46

Karabakh, which from the very beginning was

00:35:48

somewhat alien to Pashinyan himself when he

00:35:51

came to power, because unlike, for example,

00:35:53

his predecessors Sargsyan Kocharyan,

00:35:56

he himself does not come from Karabakh; he personally

00:35:59

This history is to a lesser extent, therefore,

00:36:02

it concerns not the generation who

00:36:04

fought and participated in the first Karabakh

00:36:06

war, and accordingly, when he

00:36:09

came to power in the eighteenth year, he

00:36:10

said that Well, I’ll quickly solve

00:36:12

this issue and in many ways it turned out

00:36:15

that he solved it not so quickly and not so

00:36:18

painlessly, but he solved it to one degree or another.

00:36:21

It’s not for him personally

00:36:23

now, well, it’s not his problem anymore, as he, in

00:36:27

principle, indicates his position Well,

00:36:29

yes, at least Well, in general, other

00:36:32

people on the streets of Yerevan think differently There are

00:36:35

protests going on there now, in my opinion, for the

00:36:37

third day in a row, but

00:36:40

basically the same thing happened after the Second Karabakh

00:36:43

War, but we know that, in principle, Nikol

00:36:45

Pashinyan survived and was re-elected, but now

00:36:48

these protests can change something. Should

00:36:51

Nikolai Pashinyan even fear for

00:36:53

his power?

00:36:55

Well, in terms of the degree of tragedy and risks for

00:36:59

loss of power, November 11-12,

00:37:04

2020 were much more dangerous for Pashinyan

00:37:06

than the situation now, that is, then I’ll

00:37:09

remind you that his office was destroyed and the

00:37:12

parliament of the republic was seized and it

00:37:14

was generally not clear where Pashinyan was for several

00:37:16

days. But even in this critical

00:37:18

situation for himself, Pashinyan stayed in power

00:37:21

won the parliamentary elections, he as a

00:37:24

politician, let’s be honest, is quite

00:37:27

effective even in negative conditions for himself,

00:37:30

he knows how to

00:37:32

appeal and work with his

00:37:34

electorate, if his opponents choose, he

00:37:37

gathers protest rallies, he

00:37:40

gathers much more people the next day, that

00:37:42

’s how as a politician, he is very

00:37:45

competent as a manager and as a

00:37:48

statesman, of course, he is in many ways the

00:37:51

situation in which Armenia is now

00:37:52

and the losses that Armenia has suffered are,

00:37:56

first of all, his personal

00:37:57

responsibility and his miscalculations, as with the

00:38:01

second Karabakh war, which in principle

00:38:03

was not done no conclusions after the

00:38:06

short-term four-day war in the

00:38:08

sixteenth year in April, no

00:38:10

rearmament of the army occurred, no

00:38:13

rethinking of the doctrine of war in general,

00:38:16

while Azerbaijan was systematically

00:38:18

engaged in modernization, renewal,

00:38:21

training of its army Well, it’s clear at whose

00:38:23

expense, in principle, well from whose help I’m talking about

00:38:26

Turkey at my own expense Azerbaijan

00:38:28

bought everything at its own expense. Armenia, in principle,

00:38:31

had the opportunity to rearm. At our

00:38:33

expense, at the Russian expense, Russia after the Second

00:38:35

Karabakh War, after the first

00:38:37

Karabakh War and after the four-day

00:38:39

war, helped Armenia as much as possible and

00:38:42

there were loan opportunities and that’s all,

00:38:44

today I came across the news that Armenia

00:38:47

ordered part of the Russian multiple rocket launchers factories and

00:38:52

never took them until the last

00:38:54

Despite the fact that everything was open on the line,

00:38:55

that is, the possibilities for

00:38:58

updating the army were, taking into account the advantageous

00:39:01

strategic military situation, it was

00:39:04

much easier to defend in the mountains,

00:39:06

respectively, this meant less costs and

00:39:10

less effort. But these steps were not

00:39:12

taken with with the arrival of Pashinyan, but there were

00:39:14

such toys as buying a Su-30, for example,

00:39:17

yes. Absolutely useless weapons for a specific

00:39:20

theater of military operations, but

00:39:22

insanely expensive accordingly. Well, the

00:39:25

emphasis was on PR and not on the Real

00:39:27

situation, we are talking about the Karabakh war,

00:39:30

about the negotiation process. You and I have already

00:39:31

briefly they discussed that

00:39:33

Pashinyan, after he stood his ground and

00:39:36

won the elections,

00:39:37

he considered that, in principle, the Russian

00:39:41

track was not very profitable for Armenia, he

00:39:42

signed up for the

00:39:45

border delimitation, he did not want to open

00:39:47

transport corridors, he did not want to, and

00:39:49

began to look for support already on Western

00:39:52

platforms where the

00:39:55

Negotiation appeared. Yes, about

00:39:57

I wanted to ask Pashinyan’s statement a little lower, but

00:39:59

including Russian speakers and

00:40:01

politicians, in particular, former

00:40:03

President Dmitry Medvedev spoke out

00:40:05

towards Pashinyan that his fate is not

00:40:07

enviable in the future. In general, is it in the interests of

00:40:10

Moscow that Pashinyan somehow, I don’t know,

00:40:13

be removed from the post of prime minister -minister

00:40:15

or is it still in the interests of the Kremlin for him to

00:40:18

stay?

00:40:19

Well, it’s difficult for me to speak for

00:40:23

such categories as what’s bad here, what’s

00:40:26

good here. In the sense that under

00:40:29

Pashinyan, Armenia and the political class of

00:40:32

Armenia actually turned away from Russia,

00:40:34

and even from the point of view of personal interests

00:40:36

Pashinyan,

00:40:37

he is trying to shift all

00:40:41

responsibility for all losses onto

00:40:42

Russia, of course. For us, this is

00:40:43

the most unfavorable situation and we

00:40:45

see that on the streets of Armenia,

00:40:49

despite the selfless work of

00:40:52

Russian peacekeepers who, in difficult

00:40:55

conditions, saved people despite the

00:40:56

deaths,

00:40:58

they protested both at the Cabinet of Ministers

00:41:01

and the Russian embassy which

00:41:04

was blocked as one can

00:41:06

imagine Why go to the Russian

00:41:08

embassy when the Russian Peacekeepers

00:41:10

are saving at this very time neither the military registration and enlistment offices

00:41:12

people went did not go to defend themselves But they went to

00:41:16

block the Russian Embassy and this is a

00:41:19

direct consequence of Pashinyan’s policy

00:41:21

which we now see him do you think

00:41:24

that he turned the local population against

00:41:27

Russia, among other things, but you

00:41:29

look at all Pashinyan’s statements Yes,

00:41:32

the politics of Europe, his interview before that

00:41:35

was in an Italian newspaper, he

00:41:38

plainly says it’s Russia’s fault, Russia has

00:41:39

n’t completed the work, Russian

00:41:41

Peacekeepers are not fulfilling their mission, that

00:41:43

is, there is nothing in his rhetoric reflections

00:41:47

He doesn’t say anywhere that we miscalculated,

00:41:49

we didn’t agree there, no, the only

00:41:52

guilty object in all of his ri Rick is

00:41:55

Russia, the Russian authorities, in particular the

00:41:57

Russian Peacekeepers, the Russian authorities,

00:42:00

anyone, anything connected with Russia, everything is

00:42:02

to blame for the situation

00:42:04

Armenia is in. Where are the Armenians? authorities

00:42:07

where are the Armenian armed forces where are

00:42:09

the negotiations

00:42:11

that Pashinyan, in principle, stated that he does not

00:42:13

want the country to be dragged into another

00:42:16

war,

00:42:17

so I understand that

00:42:20

what kind of war he himself dragged it into in the

00:42:24

second Karabakh war, because we all

00:42:26

remember perfectly well how it all started

00:42:29

And when in Azerbaijan, a decision was made

00:42:31

that Well, all this

00:42:33

cannot be tolerated. It was a short-term conflict at

00:42:34

the University. there

00:42:46

were no conflicts, a

00:42:49

car with officers was suddenly hit,

00:42:52

it was a local skirmish in

00:42:55

July 2020, a few months before the

00:42:58

Second Karabakh War, and then it became

00:43:00

clear that Pashinyan was using this

00:43:02

conflict for his own internal purposes, he provoked

00:43:04

this local conflict

00:43:06

in order to involve the DCS and say,

00:43:08

look, we have a conflict on the

00:43:11

Armenians on the Azerbaijani border, and here

00:43:13

you can use the clause in the

00:43:15

agreement with the DKB Union that one of the

00:43:20

parties to the agreement is

00:43:22

in danger. Well, that is, he

00:43:25

provoked a conflict, provoked

00:43:26

Azerbaijan to And thereby tried to

00:43:29

drag us into this

00:43:31

conflict of Russia in this way and what was the

00:43:32

Pashinyan’s goal back then? Well, then

00:43:35

it was also a local political goal.

00:43:38

Yes, he needed to divert attention there

00:43:40

from the problems within himself, and the second,

00:43:41

to test the possibility of connecting

00:43:43

utkb, it

00:43:44

didn’t work out, it didn’t work out, but in the

00:43:47

current conflict, it turns out your

00:43:50

logic doesn’t work I began to connect the DKB because it had

00:43:52

already become clear that, well, firstly,

00:43:56

if we are talking about the second

00:43:58

Karabakh war,

00:44:01

armed actions took place on the territory of

00:44:04

Azerbaijan, the Azerbaijani regions

00:44:06

around Nagorno-Karabakh and Nagorno-

00:44:08

Karabakh, which is not the territory of

00:44:11

Armenia and, accordingly, there are no

00:44:14

points here regarding Russia’s obligations within the

00:44:17

framework KB no,

00:44:18

the only moment when

00:44:22

the request to the DKB was more or less legitimate

00:44:24

was September last year, two

00:44:27

weeks after the negotiations in Brussels. When,

00:44:29

in principle, many had

00:44:31

the impression that a

00:44:33

peace treaty was about to be signed, a conflict occurred on the

00:44:35

Armenian-Azerbaijani border in those

00:44:37

areas Where is the Kilbajari border,

00:44:39

which for a long time was completely under the

00:44:41

control of Armenia and Azerbaijani troops suddenly appeared there

00:44:43

and there

00:44:45

were several skirmishes there, including the

00:44:48

deaths of Border Guards and Azerbaijanis,

00:44:50

and at that time the request was made to the DKB, but

00:44:54

here again two factors need to be taken into account, the

00:44:56

first factor that the legitimate

00:44:59

borders

00:45:00

along which one could say are here is this

00:45:02

territory of Armenia. Here is this

00:45:04

territory of Azerbaijan and here we

00:45:06

see that Azerbaijan has crossed this border.

00:45:07

So there is a legal

00:45:09

justification for the fact that we are including a

00:45:12

collective security agreement, this is the first

00:45:14

moment of the second CSTO is collegial

00:45:17

and in it decisions are made, as a rule, by

00:45:21

general consensus, taking into account the fact that

00:45:24

Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and

00:45:26

Belarus have much better relations with Azerbaijan

00:45:29

than with Armenia,

00:45:31

politically and economically, it is clear

00:45:33

that most of our partners in the CST

00:45:36

would say no, we will not participate in this

00:45:38

because we do not consider it

00:45:39

necessary to support Armenia because

00:45:42

our relations with Azerbaijan are important for us,

00:45:43

here again. This was

00:45:45

Pashinyan’s attempt to hide behind the DKB, but

00:45:49

again at the expense of the DKB. Armenia can now

00:45:52

leave the DKB, in principle, and now

00:45:56

we can generally consider any scenarios

00:45:58

regarding Armenia, but here you

00:46:01

only need a very important factor What are the

00:46:03

consequences for Armenia itself in this

00:46:05

world, that is, at the moment, all

00:46:07

Pashinyan’s statements, the actions of the Armenian

00:46:11

side remained without any

00:46:13

serious response from the Russian side, that

00:46:14

is, they were not introduced Nika did not

00:46:18

stop, no assistance was stopped, no

00:46:20

credit lines were closed then yes,

00:46:22

we still act as allies. But

00:46:25

if the relations and mood of the Armenian

00:46:30

authorities cross some

00:46:32

other boundaries, we are leaving the TKB, we are

00:46:35

there for the withdrawal of the Russian military base, for the

00:46:37

withdrawal of the Russian Border Guards who are

00:46:39

still guarding the border of Armenia, I

00:46:41

will remind you with Iran with Turkey,

00:46:44

then Russia will, of course, include the

00:46:47

entire range of those instruments that

00:46:51

contribute to a

00:46:52

more or less stable

00:46:54

socio-economic situation in

00:46:55

the country, for example. Well, for example, we have

00:46:58

there now. Trade has increased,

00:47:00

not sanctions, just limiting those

00:47:03

instruments to support the Armenian

00:47:05

budget;

00:47:07

all energy is in many ways a large

00:47:10

part of energy Armenia belongs to

00:47:11

Russian companies, so its

00:47:13

normal functioning largely

00:47:15

depends on the investments of a European country, the

00:47:18

railway,

00:47:20

the position there of the EU is also an important factor

00:47:24

that plays a stabilizing role for

00:47:27

Armenia because, well,

00:47:29

how many Armenians live in Russia and

00:47:31

how many of them are citizens of Russia and who are

00:47:33

working people Grants that work for the

00:47:35

Russian Federation

00:47:38

being within the framework of the Eurasian

00:47:40

Economic Union is one question;

00:47:41

leaving the State Clinical Hospital and the Eurasian

00:47:43

Economic Union changes their status;

00:47:45

you need to obtain a work permit;

00:47:47

you need to obtain a patent;

00:47:50

quotas are simply closed and that’s it; there is no

00:47:53

possibility. Well, how would we consider

00:47:54

negative scenarios? I’m just

00:47:57

I outline the situation as it may

00:48:00

look, that is, these opportunities for

00:48:03

trade that we have are closing

00:48:04

our market to Armenian goods. This is our

00:48:08

right to respond to any actions of

00:48:11

our partners who cease to

00:48:14

consider us as allies, cease to

00:48:16

behave, this is a normal policy, there is no

00:48:19

need to look at it that Russia

00:48:20

uses sanctions everyone in the world uses

00:48:22

sanctions and here in this case if a

00:48:25

decision is made how we as

00:48:28

experts should consider different

00:48:29

scenarios and I hope that in Yerevan people

00:48:32

understand that every action

00:48:35

has consequences if the Armenian

00:48:38

government decides that we are all

00:48:40

ending our allied relations

00:48:42

with Russia, it must clearly understand for itself

00:48:44

what

00:48:46

socio-economic consequences will be

00:48:50

a consequence of this decision, that is, there

00:48:53

will be no support, there will be no investments, there

00:48:56

will be no

00:48:57

favorable treatment for labor

00:48:59

migrants from Armenia and goods from

00:49:01

Armenia. This is only a small part of the fact that

00:49:04

we have interstate relations

00:49:05

if talk In general about

00:49:07

Russian-Armenian relations, now

00:49:09

they are at what I don’t know stage stage, that

00:49:13

is, in the future Yerevan will continue,

00:49:15

say, to move away from Russia towards that side of

00:49:17

Europe, or are there any

00:49:20

prospects for cooperation between Moscow

00:49:22

and Yerevan, including between with Nikol

00:49:25

Pashinyan Well, it all now completely

00:49:28

depends on

00:49:29

Yerevan because Russia and the Russian

00:49:32

leadership If you look, no one is making

00:49:35

any statements that we are

00:49:39

reconsidering our relations with Yerevan

00:49:41

Everything now comes from the

00:49:45

vision of their future that the

00:49:47

Armenian leadership has, it seems to them that

00:49:49

they have

00:49:51

associated membership with the European

00:49:53

Union, how much it helps Armenia

00:49:57

economically is a big question, but

00:50:00

Pashinyan indicates this as an important part of

00:50:05

Armenia’s foreign economic strategy, well there are plans to

00:50:08

intensify US cooperation with NATO,

00:50:11

well from a military point of view, the

00:50:13

American military was like once the moment

00:50:17

and the aggravation of the situation during the exercises in

00:50:20

Armenia by some person in some way

00:50:23

Well, nevertheless, these exercises took place. So

00:50:26

you are conducting them for some reason in order to

00:50:28

practice some kind of joint

00:50:30

actions, I will note that they were also peacekeeping,

00:50:32

in fact I was not no matter how

00:50:35

detailed the fact itself is,

00:50:37

Armenia invited to conduct an

00:50:40

exercise in defiance of Russia

00:50:44

is explained, among other things, by the possibility of

00:50:47

searching for possible options for ensuring

00:50:49

security,

00:50:50

this security ensured this allowed

00:50:53

this to make Armenia feel

00:50:56

safer This is a big question

00:50:58

about NATO, we are all fine we see what

00:51:01

Turkey’s position is regarding Sweden and

00:51:03

Finland. Well, it’s

00:51:05

unlikely that it’s easy to extrapolate. Turkey will allow Armenia to become a

00:51:09

full-fledged member of NATO simply because of

00:51:11

contradictions from Armenia, and perhaps

00:51:13

a big deal, you cancel all your

00:51:15

historical claims there. But this will be a

00:51:18

very painful deal for Armenia I

00:51:20

think it’s unlikely that she will agree to this.

00:51:21

NATO as the Guarantor of

00:51:24

Armenia’s security is a very big

00:51:26

question. The European Union is the main

00:51:28

trading partner. Well, there are no trade routes

00:51:30

that would allow Armenia

00:51:32

to count on the fact that the European market

00:51:35

can replace the Russian market. Well, with

00:51:38

what goods can Armenia go there? to get out of

00:51:40

agriculture they are very strictly

00:51:42

quotas and limited because there are a

00:51:46

lot of their producers in the European Union who are subsidized by their

00:51:48

governments, accordingly, many

00:51:50

Armenian goods will simply not be

00:51:52

allowed on the market, accordingly Well,

00:51:54

we see the situation And where to

00:51:55

go next, but Armenia is considering

00:51:58

all sorts of possibilities And who remains now

00:52:01

then a partner in the south of the Caucasus for

00:52:04

Russia besides Armenia. Well, look at

00:52:08

how its relations

00:52:11

with Georgia are developing despite the presence of

00:52:13

geopolitical claims to each other,

00:52:15

that is, despite the presence of Abkhazians, all of these

00:52:17

Georgia has not joined any

00:52:20

sanctions. Georgia clearly understands that

00:52:22

changes in the nature of relations even

00:52:25

such a fragile thing that we have in

00:52:27

Russia will negatively affect the

00:52:29

socio-economic situation, right there

00:52:32

Azerbaijan is our important Partner In

00:52:34

economic terms, from Azerbaijan Yes, it’s

00:52:36

not just a

00:52:38

country with its position that

00:52:40

usually acts independently in

00:52:43

negotiations But this is an important economic

00:52:45

Partner But predictable That is, if

00:52:47

we solve the issue of building the north

00:52:50

of the south Russia Azerbaijan

00:52:53

has built all the railways a long time ago We are waiting

00:52:54

It seems to me that Azerbaijan is equal

00:52:56

Turkey actually Aliyev is equal Erdogan not

00:52:59

Russia it seems these are different things they are

00:53:00

close allies but an equal sign Here

00:53:04

it is impossible to put it clearly what Armenia

00:53:06

is saying that

00:53:07

Aliyev is acting in the interests of Turkey Aliyev

00:53:10

is acting in the interests of Azerbaijan And

00:53:12

despite the intersection of a huge

00:53:14

number of interests and close

00:53:16

integration after the armed forces,

00:53:18

the economy of Azerbaijan is the economy of

00:53:20

Azerbaijan not Turkey and look at the

00:53:22

balance of

00:53:25

Turkish investments in Azerbaijan

00:53:27

about four billion dollars of

00:53:28

Azerbaijani Turkey is more than 16

00:53:31

billion dollars

00:53:32

therefore here to say that

00:53:35

Azerbaijan acts in the interests of Turkey

00:53:37

Azerbaijan acts in its own interests and

00:53:39

there were periods when Azerbaijan and

00:53:41

Turkey had difficult relations precisely

00:53:42

because of Armenia when there was football

00:53:45

diplomacy, a period of such an attempt to

00:53:48

restore relations between Armenia and Turkey

00:53:50

and then it was a crisis in relations

00:53:53

Azerbaijan, that is, we cannot

00:53:55

speak identically. And if we want to build

00:53:57

normal relations with Azerbaijan, we

00:53:59

must consider it as an

00:54:00

independent player and from the point of view of

00:54:02

predictability and pragmatism, this is the

00:54:04

most comfortable player because

00:54:06

we know that if Baku is given its word, it

00:54:10

deeply fulfills Baku

00:54:13

will not join NATO. there are no plans not in the doctrines of

00:54:16

Azerbaijan Azerbaijan The leader of the non-

00:54:19

alignment movement is trying as hard as possible to

00:54:21

take such a neutral position

00:54:23

in the international arena for Russia it is

00:54:25

important and beneficial that one of our

00:54:28

economic in the economy of Azerbaijan is

00:54:31

our most important Partner, trade turnover with

00:54:33

Azerbaijan is much higher than with Armenia

00:54:34

and the mutual benefit of cooperation on the

00:54:37

Caspian Sea on transport they are for Russia from the

00:54:39

point of view of the state they are

00:54:41

much more important Stanislav Thank you in

00:54:43

the program what was it There was a senior

00:54:47

researcher at the Center for Post-Soviet

00:54:49

Studies at the Institute of World Economy

00:54:51

and International Relations Stanislav

00:54:54

Pritchin Do not forget to like

00:54:57

this video and also subscribe to the

00:54:58

Youtube channel RTVi News This episode

00:55:01

was hosted by Dmitry Lobanov See you soon

00:55:11

[music]

Description:

Подписывайтесь на телеграм-канал RTVI: https://t.me/rtvimain Новый мир уже тут: @RTVIchronicles Азербайджан провел операцию в Карабахе, власти региона сдались спустя сутки, а в Армении митингуют за отставку Пашиняна. Что это было — обсудили с сотрудником ИМЭМО РАН Станиславом Притчиным. Что ждет Нагорный Карабах под контролем Баку? Почему не сработал мирный план Москвы? Что будет с Пашиняном и российско-армянскими отношениями? Почему в конфликт не вмешался ОДКБ? И какое будущее у российских миротворцев в регионе и как Москва реагирует на гибель военных после обстрела со стороны Азербайджана? Подписывайтесь на @RTVINews и ставьте лайки! Если хотите отвлечься от новостей, подписывайтесь на наш канал @RTVItainment

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How can I download "Финал карабахского конфликта? Интеграция в Азербайджан, судьба Пашиняна, миротворцы, Россия и ОДКБ" video?

http://unidownloader.com/ website is the best way to download a video or a separate audio track if you want to do without installing programs and extensions.
The UDL Helper extension is a convenient button that is seamlessly integrated into YouTube, Instagram and OK.ru sites for fast content download.
UDL Client program (for Windows) is the most powerful solution that supports more than 900 websites, social networks and video hosting sites, as well as any video quality that is available in the source.
UDL Lite is a really convenient way to access a website from your mobile device. With its help, you can easily download videos directly to your smartphone.

Which format of "Финал карабахского конфликта? Интеграция в Азербайджан, судьба Пашиняна, миротворцы, Россия и ОДКБ" video should I choose?

The best quality formats are FullHD (1080p), 2K (1440p), 4K (2160p) and 8K (4320p). The higher the resolution of your screen, the higher the video quality should be. However, there are other factors to consider: download speed, amount of free space, and device performance during playback.

Why does my computer freeze when loading a "Финал карабахского конфликта? Интеграция в Азербайджан, судьба Пашиняна, миротворцы, Россия и ОДКБ" video?

The browser/computer should not freeze completely! If this happens, please report it with a link to the video. Sometimes videos cannot be downloaded directly in a suitable format, so we have added the ability to convert the file to the desired format. In some cases, this process may actively use computer resources.

How can I download "Финал карабахского конфликта? Интеграция в Азербайджан, судьба Пашиняна, миротворцы, Россия и ОДКБ" video to my phone?

You can download a video to your smartphone using the website or the PWA application UDL Lite. It is also possible to send a download link via QR code using the UDL Helper extension.

How can I download an audio track (music) to MP3 "Финал карабахского конфликта? Интеграция в Азербайджан, судьба Пашиняна, миротворцы, Россия и ОДКБ"?

The most convenient way is to use the UDL Client program, which supports converting video to MP3 format. In some cases, MP3 can also be downloaded through the UDL Helper extension.

How can I save a frame from a video "Финал карабахского конфликта? Интеграция в Азербайджан, судьба Пашиняна, миротворцы, Россия и ОДКБ"?

This feature is available in the UDL Helper extension. Make sure that "Show the video snapshot button" is checked in the settings. A camera icon should appear in the lower right corner of the player to the left of the "Settings" icon. When you click on it, the current frame from the video will be saved to your computer in JPEG format.

What's the price of all this stuff?

It costs nothing. Our services are absolutely free for all users. There are no PRO subscriptions, no restrictions on the number or maximum length of downloaded videos.