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0:00

ПРИНУЖДЕНИЕ К ПЕРЕГОВОРАМ

3:06

НЕКОГДА УДОБНЫЙ ПАРТНЁР

8:26

НИ ЕДИНОМУ СЛОВУ

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The war is making the country fade away | 8 months — what has changed (English subtitles)

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Испортить отношения с хорошими соседями | Как мы потеряли связь с Финляндией (ENG SUB) @Max_Katz

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Channel: Максим Кац

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00:00:05

According to their sources, France, and Germany have issued an ultimatum to President Zelenskyy:

00:00:09

if the Ukrainian Armed Forces do not fulfill all their objectives by the fall,

00:00:13

including the liberation of all provinces they’ve planned to retake, they will be pressured to negotiate a deal with Putin.

00:00:21

This is a familiar story. About six months ago, there was a lot of discussion about how the U.S. was pressuring Kyiv

00:00:30

to at least show willingness to negotiate.

00:00:33

This is a topic that is very easy to sensationalize and turn into clickbait headlines.

00:00:37

Upon closer examination, however, it appears to be completely absurd. After all, what would this actually look like?

00:00:44

President Macron along with Chancellor Scholz address their parliaments, governments, and voters, saying,

00:00:51

“We regret to inform you that Ukraine has missed their victory deadline, and we must, therefore,

00:00:57

revoke their coveted status as the good guys in this war.

00:01:01

We must now disregard the funds, resources, and lives that have been invested and lost in this conflict.

00:01:06

Our task is now to compel Ukraine to negotiate with Putin. With the very man who initiated a frontal war in the middle of Europe,

00:01:14

forcing us to accept millions of refugees, spend billions of dollars, and completely rebuild our gas transportation system.

00:01:21

With the man who threatens to use nuclear bombs to end our very existence.”

00:01:26

I can hardly imagine a political landscape where this would be possible.

00:01:29

How come you U-turn on a policy you’ve been consistently pursuing, and begin undermining your own efforts?

00:01:35

How come you turn your back on the victim and side with the aggressor?

00:01:40

Last but not least, how come you disavow the most popular national leader of our time?

00:01:47

If you take a moment to think about this threat, you will quickly realize how inherently unfeasible it is.

00:01:54

However, it does align perfectly with the desires of the Kremlin’s old guard.

00:01:57

As time goes on, they will be seeking any semblance of a negotiation that could be sold to voters in the pre-election year.

00:02:06

But the idea of forcing Ukraine into negotiations is simply ludicrous. Ukraine is waging a righteous liberation war,

00:02:14

its actions are morally justified, and the provision of aid to it is supported by the society.

00:02:19

Reversing policy is something that only a dictatorship that suppresses freedom of speech

00:02:24

and has a well-oiled propaganda machine can afford, and not democratic regimes

00:02:29

whose leaders must take responsibility for their words and actions.

00:02:33

Let us, however, hypothetically assume that all of the arguments that I’ve laid out are invalid.

00:02:37

Let’s assume that we’re discussing not Ukraine — a country in which allies have invested significant resources

00:02:46

and which they have already committed to supporting — but instead some abstract agreement with Putin.

00:02:51

An agreement that European and U.S. leaders would have to sign and pu their reputations on the line to ensure it works.

00:02:58

To do this, we need to take a step back and examine how the relationships between Western leaders

00:03:11

It is clear what concept dominated initially. Fukuyama’s End of History was all the rage.

00:03:18

The Socialist bloc crumbled — the democracy and the market economy prevailed.

00:03:24

It was widely anticipated that from there on out, the world would move toward liberal democracy.

00:03:30

For this model had clearly demonstrated its effectiveness.

00:03:33

In the 2000s, it became rather obvious that following the collapse of the Socialist bloc,

00:03:38

its former members were not transitioning to democracy as quickly as it was hoped, and many began drifting away from it.

00:03:44

This led to the emergence of the concept of "rational autocracies."

00:03:47

The argument put forth is that modern autocrats differ from old-school dictators in military uniforms,

00:03:51

who constantly waged wars and shot at peaceful protestors.

00:03:55

Not the kind of leaders who forced entire countries to march along and memorize their glorified biographies,

00:04:01

who named cities and erected monuments in their honor.

00:04:07

Modern autocrats are a different breed. They wear suits and focus on economic growth.

00:04:12

Their public speeches are similar to those of democratic leaders, they talk of human rights and social guarantees,

00:04:20

of the importance of education and healthcare, and improving the standard of living.

00:04:24

They don’t call for you to take up arms and die for your homeland.

00:04:27

Nor do they encourage you to seek out enemies both inside and outside of the country.

00:04:30

A modern autocrat is adept at mimicking democratic procedures and always presents himself as a respectable leader.

00:04:36

He may spout rhetoric about “NATO threatening our borders,” but this is largely meant for domestic consumption.

00:04:42

When it comes to action, such an autocrat establishes a base within his country’s border to supply NATO troops in Afghanistan.

00:04:50

In other words, the new breed of autocrat is a leader one can work and reason with. He may make nonsensical statements,

00:04:56

but is unlikely to take nonsensical actions.

00:04:59

Even if he does, he will stop just at the right moment to prevent any real damage to his country's economy,

00:05:06

especially the kind of damage that would threaten the privileges and wealth of his elites.

00:05:12

The foundation of his power is not fear, but rather the benefits his close entourage and international partners gain

00:05:19

from his leadership. He would never risk becoming a liability both at home and abroad.

00:05:24

Vladimir Putin was able to dispel this illusion.

00:05:31

He has proven that appearances and utterances don’t matter a little bit. It doesn't matter how many languages you speak.

00:05:37

Nor does it matter how you came to power, whether by beheading your predecessor or inheriting the throne.

00:05:42

Decades of unlimited rule can turn anyone into a madman.

00:05:48

You cannot negotiate with Putin in his current state.

00:05:53

Not because it would be immoral or unethical, but simply because it would be fruitless.

00:06:03

Putin would use these talks for all kinds of purposes: to bide time, to undermine his opponents,

00:06:09

to show the citizens and the elites that he is still taken seriously — anything but to reach an agreement.

00:06:18

Any leader who risks their reputation by relying on Putin’s promises is bound to lose it.

00:06:24

No one wants to walk in Emmanuel Macron’s shoes,

00:06:29

who received Putin’s assurances to preserve Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity just two weeks

00:06:35

prior to the full-scale invasion.

00:06:37

Think of the humiliation.

00:06:39

The President of the seventh-largest economy in the world, a leader in the EU, a head of a nuclear-weapon state,

00:06:46

agrees to sit at the table the size of a small country.

00:06:50

He patiently listens to everything Putin has to say and brings home the assurances of peace.

00:06:56

And within just a few days, it becomes obvious that he was lied to right in his face.

00:07:00

It is crystal clear that there can be no bilateral negotiations between Putin and Zelenskyy.

00:07:06

“Persuading” or “coercing” Ukraine into negotiations, even if such a thing was theoretically possible,

00:07:11

would require the mediation of key Western allies.

00:07:15

Such mediation by definition entails guarantees.

00:07:19

It requires that Ukraine's main allies sign on to the commitments and words of Putin.

00:07:27

Now, doesn’t this sound ridiculous? It’s like words from a different era.

00:07:33

Doesn’t the very idea that anyone would sign their name on to Putin’s words strike you as absurd?

00:07:40

The words of a man whose entire rule is propped up by fat lies.

00:07:45

Who acts like a used car salesman pitching a ton of wheeled scrap metal to you.

00:07:53

How will you look after he survives the election, rebuilds, and again rushes to feed his compulsions by sending tank columns to Kyiv?

00:08:02

It’s not a hypothetical step — it’s only a matter of time.

00:08:04

What will your voters say after they realize that they now have to deal not with the version of Putin

00:08:09

that sincerely believed that he would sneeze Ukraine into submission, but with the one that accurately assesses

00:08:14

the scale of the task and is up to it?

00:08:17

How much weaponry and equipment will be required then?

00:08:19

How bitterly will you then remember the moment when you were about to win,

00:08:24

but lost everything because you believed a certified liar?

00:08:27

NOT A SINGLE WORD

00:08:32

Lies and manipulation can be highly effective tools, but only in the short term.

00:08:37

A roadside diner may get away with serving subpar food to customers who will soon be leaving town anyway,

00:08:44

and there are new customers dropping by daily.

00:08:47

But a fine-dining establishment cannot afford to operate like this, as it must rely on loyal and regular clientele.

00:08:54

The entire story of Vladimir Putin is one of lies and manipulation.

00:08:57

Everyone who believed him, made deals with him, or counted on his rationality ended up looking foolish.

00:09:06

Anyone who thought, "No way he’s that bats**t crazy," was left embarrassed.

00:09:11

Putin has always capitalized on quick petty lies. It was easy for him to do so, being a president of a large country, big deal,

00:09:21

whose words must carry some weight.

00:09:24

Everything, however, has its limits, especially when the choice is so obvious and clear-cut.

00:09:30

Either we stop helping the victim country, which is clearly winning, and trust the aggressor country whose leader never tells the truth,

00:09:38

or we continue to help the victim until the aggressor succumbs to any conditions.

00:09:43

European leaders once allowed themselves to be drawn into the Minsk agreements.

00:09:48

They guaranteed, with their own names, the terms of Ukraine’s surrender and establishing militarized enclaves on its territory.

00:09:56

They fixed a status quo that was beneficial only to Putin. But even this status quo was destroyed by Putin.

00:10:03

He prevented the parties to the negotiation from saving face.

00:10:06

They believed that this compromise, with Europe guaranteeing that Ukraine partially lost its sovereignty

00:10:13

and the DPR and LPR de facto legitimized, would satisfy Putin and prevent further escalation.

00:10:18

Angela Merkel, who has enjoyed most success as German chancellor since the reunification of the country,

00:10:24

now appears to have unwittingly aided and abetted Putin's aggression, as did her French counterpart Francois Hollande.

00:10:34

Believe Putin now — and you’re almost guaranteed to go down not as a politician who raised social benefits, curbed inflation,

00:10:42

ensured economic growth, and reduced crime rates, but as a politician who trusted Putin,

00:10:50

that is, a man who must never be trusted, a war criminal even.

00:10:53

You will be remembered as a politician who not only did not oppose obvious evil, but enabled it.

00:11:03

Kremlin propaganda basks in such news, savoring the hypothetical possibility that Ukraine's Western

00:11:09

allies will start coercing it into peace.

00:11:12

But both the propaganda and Putin himself fundamentally underestimate just how losing

00:11:18

the situation is in which he has backed himself.

00:11:23

The battlefield is all bad news.

00:11:25

The people who are already there will soon be slaughtered, and Ukraine will launch an offensive with new weapons and equipment,

00:11:31

since all that was promised early this year will start to arrive at the front lines around March or April.

00:11:38

And announcing a new mobilization drive would be difficult in the run-up to the election.

00:11:43

Putin is in a bad spot, and everyone knows this.

00:11:45

There is a shortage of equipment, with everything that could be used already destroyed, a shortage of ammunition which

00:11:49

is becoming a publicly known issue, leading to a bitter feud between the Ministry of Defense and Wagner PMC,

00:11:56

and a shortage of manpower. There are no more illusions about the combat readiness of the Russian army.

00:12:02

There are no more allies. Iran has given what it could, Lukashenko has helped with what he could, and China sends its best regards.

00:12:09

Even the seemingly endless supply of convicts is running out, as those who could be recruited have been.

00:12:14

Ukraine, on the other hand, is only getting stronger. Putin achieved nothing by attacking a peaceful country;

00:12:20

now, that country is armed to the teeth and will continue to be armed further.

00:12:24

The Ukrainian counteroffensive is inevitable, and everyone understands that it will be nothing like Putin's — it will be real.

00:12:33

Lying has exhausted its potential, and the war is clearly being lost.

00:12:37

So, why would any serious Western leader pressure Ukraine into negotiations and stake their reputation on these talks?

00:12:46

Rather, the Western allies became convinced that they had chosen the right side, the victorious side, and they do want victory.

00:12:55

Which they talk about openly and unequivocally, and we don’t need any dubious leaks to hear them.

00:13:02

Don't believe the nonsense!

00:13:04

See you tomorrow!

Description:

На днях Bild опубликовал статью об ультиматуме, который Франция и Германия якобы поставили Зеленскому: если Украина не достигнет военных целей к осени, её принудят к переговорам с Путиным. Сегодня обсудим этот сюжет. _________________________ Поддержать канал: USDT (TRC20) TVLqmTPafduGyhBNpVhJCCJtvbqiA3ANxT USDT (ERC20) 0x0d41cc54fc089e96b3271467483d31a5e9d17940 BTC 3C4Xp9NMSsybwG1p9YENDbbuott4voPsFH ETH 0x0d41cc54fc089e96b3271467483d31a5e9d17940 Patreon (если вы не в России): https://www.patreon.com/join/maximkatz Boosty (если вы в России): https://boosty.to/max_katz Оформить спонсорство: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCUGfDbfRIx51kJGGHIFo8Rw/join Paypal: https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/maximkatz _________________________ Подпишись: www.youtube.com/channel/UCUGfDbfRIx51kJGGHIFo8Rw?sub_confirmation=1 Книга «История новой России | Максим Кац»: https://shop.maxkatz.ru/-p445952767 Тот самый свитер: https://shop.maxkatz.ru/%D0%A1%D0%B2%D0%B8%D1%82%D0%B5%D1%80-%D1%81-%D1%82%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%BC%D0%B2%D0%B0%D1%8F%D0%BC%D0%B8-p310507600 Обложки на холсте: https://shop.maxkatz.ru/ Купить книгу «100 советов мэру»: https://shop.city4people.ru/ Подкаст: https://katz.buzzsprout.com/share Подписывайтесь на мои социальные сети: Твиттер: https://twitter.com/max_katz Телеграм-канал: https://t.me/maximkatz Инстаграм: https://www.facebook.com/unsupportedbrowser Фейсбук: https://www.facebook.com/unsupportedbrowser По вопросам рекламы пишите на [email protected] 00:00 ПРИНУЖДЕНИЕ К ПЕРЕГОВОРАМ 03:06 НЕКОГДА УДОБНЫЙ ПАРТНЁР 08:26 НИ ЕДИНОМУ СЛОВУ

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