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0:00

ماذا يعنى التعويم علميا ولماذا لا يناسب مصر؟

10:30

أصول مصر ستكون متاحة بنصف قيمتها لمن يرغب فى شرائها بالدولار

12:41

بدائل التعويم للخروج من الأزمة

19:16

لماذا لا ننتج شيئا ولا يهتم المسئولون بزيادة الإنتاج؟

25:00

لماذا يجب ان نربط الجنيه بسلة عملات وليس بالدولار ؟

28:16

ما هو اقتصاد الحرب ولماذا مصر فى حاجة إليه؟

سر هوس ادارة بوش بضرب صدام واحتلال العراق فى 2003

سر هوس ادارة بوش بضرب صدام واحتلال العراق فى 2003

Channel: Ne3raf | نعرف

عام سداد الديون: خيارات مصر لسداد 60 مليار دولار خلال 12 شهرا

عام سداد الديون: خيارات مصر لسداد 60 مليار دولار خلال 12 شهرا

Channel: Ne3raf | نعرف

لماذا سقط الاقتصاد الالمانى العظيم فى الركود؟

لماذا سقط الاقتصاد الالمانى العظيم فى الركود؟

Channel: Ne3raf | نعرف

السعوديون لبايدن: جاهزون للتطبيع مع اسرائيل بـ 3 شروط... وبايدن: تعجيزية !

السعوديون لبايدن: جاهزون للتطبيع مع اسرائيل بـ 3 شروط... وبايدن: تعجيزية !

Channel: Ne3raf | نعرف

كيف يرى الإسرائيليون محصلة أول 100 يوم من الحرب؟

كيف يرى الإسرائيليون محصلة أول 100 يوم من الحرب؟

Channel: Ne3raf | نعرف

غربية أم مغربية؟ ماذا قال كيسنجر والمخابرات الامريكية عن الصحراء منذ 46 عاما؟

غربية أم مغربية؟ ماذا قال كيسنجر والمخابرات الامريكية عن الصحراء منذ 46 عاما؟

Channel: Ne3raf | نعرف

نعرف

NE3RAF

سيد جبيل

جبيل

معلومات

سياسة

اقتصاد

معلومات عامة

معرفة

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[Music]

00:00:13

Good evening to you, a new episode of the

00:00:16

professor’s ideas, and the professor, of course, is the

00:00:19

great economist Dr. Jodi Abdel Khaleq.

00:00:22

Good evening, His Excellency the Doctor. Good evening to you,

00:00:24

gentlemen of viewers everywhere. May God protect

00:00:27

you. I have a direct question, Your Honor. Why do you think

00:00:32

that floating and liberalizing the local currency is not a solution? It

00:00:36

should not be the focus of our attention in Egypt or

00:00:39

elsewhere in Egypt. The theory behind the float

00:00:43

and reduction, part of it, is based on a law,

00:00:48

rule, or condition. Leave the condition which is the Marshall-

00:00:52

Lerner condition. Marshall-Lerner is called the Marshall-Lerner condition.

00:00:56

Marshall was a classical economist who

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lived in the late and early centuries. Living at the

00:01:04

University of Cambridge,

00:01:06

the great Werner is an

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American economist, meaning the next generation to the generation of

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Marshall, and the writings of the two were translated into this

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rule. The rule says that it is a condition for the

00:01:21

reduction of the national currency to lead to an improvement in the

00:01:24

state of the trade balance and thus its relief in the

00:01:28

foreign club issue. The following

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is required. Number one: I have flexibility in supplying

00:01:34

local goods. It is high. What is meant

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by elasticity of supply? A small increase in its price

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can lead to a large increase in the quantity

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supplied. Meaning, you have production capacity that allows you to

00:01:48

increase production and thus increase supply

00:01:52

with every slight increase in price. For

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example, if we take the meaning of this question, it may

00:01:58

look like a comic. A little comical, but take the situation of

00:02:02

onions in Egypt well. You have a specific, known area

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of land designated for growing onions.

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With the change in the exchange rate, it has become very tempting

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for exporters that instead of selling onions at

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home, they stay abroad. Great, this will happen, and

00:02:23

therefore you are transporting quantities of onions. From the

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arena of domestic consumption to the arena of consumption,

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which is external. What is the result? It

00:02:33

will affect the balance of the internal market, so the price of onions will rise. The

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price of onions will rise, one by two. You do not

00:02:40

have the energy to increase production locally, so that you

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cannot benefit from the opportunities available for

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marketing, and therefore you will not be able to export and sell

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quantity. It is larger than onions, and therefore you do not expect a

00:02:58

significant increase in exports as a whole, and

00:03:01

therefore you do not expect an improvement in the verse of the

00:03:05

trade balance, meaning as exports increase, your imports decrease. The

00:03:08

first condition is that you must have the flexibility of the

00:03:11

production system to increase production of

00:03:14

goods that enter into international trade with any

00:03:18

improvement. A slight increase in its price as a result of the verse of flotation.

00:03:22

Two, it also has relatively high flexibility for

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local demand for imported goods. I

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want, of course, that is the subject. I mean, I am trying to

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simplify it, but within limits. Rather, the

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basic idea that there is flotation,

00:03:39

meaning adjusting the price of the national currency against the

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foreign currency, has two effects.

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It is important that if conditions are met for water, the first effect

00:03:51

is called the effect of reducing spending. When the price

00:03:55

increases, the spending decreases. In general, the

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total spending per night. The second condition is the transfer of

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spending, meaning that instead of spending on

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imported goods, the spending is transferred to goods of any

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local product. In this case, it remains useful. In this case, it

00:04:13

remains useful. Ok, how do we ensure that what we call the

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transfer effect and

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the reduction effect are achieved? Here we return to the subject of elasticities and

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thus by saying

00:04:28

that

00:04:30

when the economy or in the economy has the

00:04:34

ability to increase exports in response

00:04:38

to increased demand abroad, then in the case

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exports increase and when the economy has

00:04:45

the ability to reduce spending on imports. As a

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result of the rise in the price of imports, then if

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exports increase imports decrease,

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the trade balance is bad. It will improve in

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the end. This is the basic idea in the topic,

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build on it, with the condition of Marshall Lane. This is the concave talk

00:05:05

that I said because the economists who

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follow, oh, we must keep the sum of the elasticities as the

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absolute value of the elasticity, the price elasticity

00:05:13

of exports and the price elasticity. The price of imports remains

00:05:17

greater than

00:05:18

one in reality, and the available studies confirm that

00:05:23

this is not the case in the case of an economy

00:05:26

like the Egyptian economy. Therefore, in reality,

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the bet is on betting

00:05:30

on flotation and then devaluing the currency

00:05:35

to improve the situation. The bet is a loser, in the estimation of

00:05:38

your honorable professor. I am sure that I understood what you said.

00:05:41

I mean, I'll repeat it again, please tell me that if

00:05:43

I made a mistake, the float will not think that it will not

00:05:46

be useful in the case of Egypt and in the case of countries

00:05:49

similar to the Egyptian economy, for two simple reasons. The

00:05:52

first reason is that the float leads to a decline in the

00:05:56

currency, and a decline in the currency leads to a

00:05:59

decline in the value of the currency, and a decline in the value of the currency leads

00:06:02

to that. Exports will remain at an attractive price

00:06:07

to the outside world, and this is good, but for Egypt, it is

00:06:10

not very good because I do not have a huge production device

00:06:13

capable of exporting significantly

00:06:16

and benefiting from this advantage. The second thing

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is that in order to export anything, I am forced to

00:06:22

import intermediate goods, and therefore exports may

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lose their attractiveness because they I urgently need to

00:06:30

import. The first is a lot of ingredients. It is true. The

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second thing is that people are swimming in order to revive

00:06:37

local production and reduce imports. So, if

00:06:41

I produce or import many basic commodities, such as agricultural,

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industrial, or other goods, and I do not have a

00:06:48

local alternative for them, then

00:06:51

I am unable to stop importing them. Therefore, all

00:06:53

I have in mind is the rise in prices in general at

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home. You mean it? Ok, and here are two examples

00:07:00

to make this clear. If you are talking about the case of a country

00:07:04

like Egypt that imports wheat from abroad, it is known

00:07:08

that the average bull receives about 50% of its

00:07:11

wheat needs from

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abroad. Wheat is a basic commodity. It is the most

00:07:16

basic commodity because it means whether or not it is the

00:07:18

cost of a

00:07:20

person. When it is not you, let us say, for example,

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that the price of a ton of wheat abroad is 200 dollars.

00:07:30

Or, when the price is 30 pounds to the dollar, then

00:07:34

the price inside remains at how much is 30 in 200. Exactly

00:07:39

exactly. Why is the

00:07:43

price? It rises to 50, so in the case it remains 50

00:07:47

in what is 200 in 200. This rise will

00:07:50

not result in a

00:07:56

decrease in Egypt’s consumption of wheat, considering that

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wheat is a necessary commodity, and because it is a necessary commodity, the

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price elasticity of demand remains weak. Weak, so you

00:08:07

will not benefit. Rather, this will result in an increase in the

00:08:10

price in the national currency, and thus The rise in

00:08:13

cost and everything that results from that, one or two, is a

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very forgotten point in this

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debate. When your production structure,

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meaning industrial and

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agricultural facilities, depends in its activity on

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production requirements imported from abroad to a large extent, then

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with every decline in the price of the national currency, the cost of

00:08:41

imported production requirements rises.

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Therefore, the advantage that can be achieved from a

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lower price of exports and thus stimulating

00:08:53

foreign countries to buy larger quantities of them is lost as a

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result of the high cost because of

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this very large Egyptian characteristic, which we call it, the

00:09:04

high foreign component of

00:09:08

local production. I would like, Your Honor, to give a

00:09:11

corresponding example for Egypt so that the picture remains. Explain

00:09:13

and correct me. It means an opportunity. You found that, for example,

00:09:16

floating or devaluing the currency in the case of China is

00:09:19

very ideal for him. As I understand it, it means that he has a

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huge production capacity and therefore it is estimated that if

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it declines, if his currency is low, he will still have a

00:09:34

very large production that is tempting for the external investor or

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external countries to buy it. He bought it in

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large quantities, and thus he will give him a large amount of cash, and thus he will

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remain in good condition. The second thing is that he

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will have flexibility in the case of

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foreign imports, because he does not import everything essential to

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him. It is restricted. I mean, for example, it is not a matter of life or death that

00:09:55

he imports wheat from abroad in the case of oil,

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it is permissible, and therefore Because he has flexibility, if he

00:10:01

finds that there are foreign goods that are very expensive for him, he can

00:10:05

replace them with a local product with another product. Do I

00:10:07

understand that this is true? It is true that this situation does not apply to

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most countries with emerging economies, I mean, or

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poor economies, oh, including the countries of the region,

00:10:15

because they do not have a productive apparatus, and therefore even the

00:10:18

productive apparatus. It is not very large. Sanya

00:10:21

imports not only luxury goods, but very vital goods, and

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she does not have the ability to dispense with them. Exactly,

00:10:28

with the astonishment of her ability, this translates into the fact that what

00:10:30

I said is that the flexible talk does not come down to

00:10:34

the price, but in my mind there is a topic that must be mentioned, which

00:10:37

is this talk in relation to

00:10:40

what it is. When

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it is traded day after day, month after month, year after

00:10:45

year, there is nothing else, which is the assets, you are

00:10:48

talking about, for

00:10:51

example, production facilities, production units, banks, all

00:10:55

this, with the reduction in the price of the national currency,

00:11:00

all these assets become low, low in front of

00:11:03

foreigners, in front of foreigners, and thus in a kind of

00:11:06

return. The distribution of wealth between inside and outside

00:11:10

is included in this process. It is true that it is the

00:11:14

pound. We assume now that the dollar is at 30.

00:11:18

The dollar remains theoretically, meaning for convenience, it remains at 60.

00:11:21

This means that a foreigner can buy

00:11:25

almost everything that is offered for sale for less than 50

00:11:31

million. This is true. Ok, I will ask. Your question, Your Honor,

00:11:35

is that it may not be hidden from many that the

00:11:39

flotation process has clear harm because even if it

00:11:43

is not economic, he lives in this country

00:11:46

and in others. Whenever the pound falls against the dollar,

00:11:50

goods rise and are damaged, the majority are harmed. I mean, the

00:11:55

question is, what is the alternative that you are considering?

00:11:57

If the current government remains, I mean, what should

00:12:05

they do with the next government, if a different government is formed? This is the current situation. What are

00:12:09

they doing as an alternative to floating the pound? Okay.

00:12:13

Here we can perspective a

00:12:15

little and

00:12:18

look at the issue of floating. In the end, in

00:12:21

essence, it is the issue of reformulating the basis of the relationship between the

00:12:26

inside

00:12:27

and the outside through market forces. This changes the price of

00:12:31

prices, and it may be the most important price, and as

00:12:34

I called it, the secret of the price system in the economy,

00:12:37

which is the exchange rate. This is in relation to the loan.

00:12:40

You are asking me what should we do if the situation is

00:12:44

as you see and say, and I say the following: I will change the

00:12:48

formulation of the relationship between the inside and the outside,

00:12:51

but not by relying on Market power is through the

00:12:54

exchange rate, but through

00:12:57

mechanisms provided by the conditions and rules of

00:13:01

global trade. No, not global trade.

00:13:05

Egypt’s membership in the body that guards the international trading system,

00:13:09

which is the World Trade Organization. This is

00:13:11

what I say about trade in the world trade system

00:13:12

from the perspective of world trade. The

00:13:14

world trade system has a constitution.

00:13:18

We call this constitution the General Agreement on Tariffs and

00:13:21

Trade. The last edition of this

00:13:25

agreement was issued in the late eighties and was

00:13:28

brought back in the early nineties in Marrakesh. Well,

00:13:32

1994 specifically. In

00:13:36

Marrakesh, the international trade community met and read

00:13:40

this constitution, which is the provisions of the

00:13:43

General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, after a debate that lasted

00:13:49

for more than a few years. Very short negotiations that

00:13:52

ended with this issue. The constitution and the establishment of the

00:13:57

World Trade Organization as the entity

00:14:00

that will ensure the implementation of this constitution say

00:14:04

what remains and what can benefit. We

00:14:07

the topic says that the economy is the economy of the

00:14:10

member country of the Arab Trade Organization

00:14:12

that is exposed to harsh

00:14:15

or

00:14:17

severe external shocks that affect its The overall situation, economic,

00:14:21

social, and perhaps political, has the right to resort

00:14:26

to tools

00:14:31

to control foreign trade, especially

00:14:34

import trade. This means reducing imports, which

00:14:38

may reach the point of prohibiting imports at their

00:14:42

maximum level, and the import quota may be restricted for a specific period, and

00:14:46

it may

00:14:48

be the setting of specific quotas for what is imported to a maximum

00:14:53

during a

00:14:55

specific period. Or raise customs duties as well. Protection is

00:15:01

well established. Protection measures are

00:15:04

absolutely protective, but it has an important condition, which is that

00:15:07

this be in agreement with other members of the organization

00:15:12

who are concerned with the matter. You want to reduce the price or

00:15:15

or or reduce the import for a period or make a share of

00:15:21

where it will come from India. Then enter into an understanding.

00:15:24

With India, there is a process, and this is a process that is not

00:15:27

easy, but it is not difficult. It is difficult. It is possible in and in countries that

00:15:30

have tried this and implemented it. The state has the right, according

00:15:35

to the Constitution of the World Trade Organization, that in

00:15:39

certain circumstances, circumstances of distress, let us

00:15:43

call them, impose restrictions that would reduce the

00:15:48

value of the import bill to For

00:15:52

the economy to pass the stage of distress in which it is. A question

00:15:55

with Dr.

00:16:18

Through the tools of financial policy, monetary policy,

00:16:24

or investment policy, I want to say that here is

00:16:29

the arsenal of economic weapons parked. I

00:16:32

want to operate it well in this way, so that it begins to

00:16:36

reshape the

00:16:37

pattern of production and the pattern of consumption, which ultimately leads

00:16:42

to reducing imports of etc., and as I

00:16:47

control this, or austerity as I do. This is true, this is true,

00:16:50

but His Excellency the Doctor, whether Egypt or

00:16:53

other countries use their right to restrict imports

00:16:56

in agreement with the organization or with countries bilaterally,

00:17:00

or whether the country is revealed, this would also be good options

00:17:04

if I have a working production device, if I

00:17:07

rely on a significant percentage of the goods I own.

00:17:12

By making it or in the basic commodity that I

00:17:15

consume externally, what benefit do these proposals benefit me? I

00:17:19

mean, the benefit in them will remain limited.

00:17:22

No, this is not related to a change in the

00:17:26

overall view of things,

00:17:28

meaning that instead of your tendency to be pimples on

00:17:34

the outside, everything that can be returned from the outside does not change

00:17:38

this view. It is necessary to enhance

00:17:42

production capabilities, and these are matters that people imagine will

00:17:46

take years. No, this is not true. For

00:17:49

example, take the issue of wheat, for example. What is

00:17:53

currently happening now is that

00:17:57

you,

00:17:59

with regard to Egypt’s local production of wheat, are

00:18:01

the farmer who produces the wheat. The government opposes the price to him, and the

00:18:04

government opposes the price. Yes. 1600 pounds per

00:18:07

ton for the ardab. Sorry, okay. The question remains: Is

00:18:11

this a price that motivates? Oh, I understand you. No, it does not motivate,

00:18:16

because keep in mind now while we are talking. The price of a ton of

00:18:20

wheat globally is about 400 dollars. That’s fine.

00:18:24

The price offered by the government to the

00:18:26

Egyptian farmer, if you calculate it, is the percentage of the ardab. A

00:18:31

ton has seven revenues per ton. This is fine. Multiply

00:18:36

this number by seven to give you the price per ton in

00:18:39

Egyptian pounds. Divide by the exchange rate, which is 30, to

00:18:42

get 360. It is 65. You are talking about 300.

00:18:48

Let us say 365 dollars. Yes, compared to the

00:18:52

international price that you import. Keep in

00:18:54

mind, you import from abroad. At this price, it is

00:18:57

approximately 400 dollars per ton. I mean, Egypt

00:19:01

imports it for 400, but it requests it from the farmer for 365. This is

00:19:04

exactly the same question. Does this

00:19:07

motivate the Egyptian farmer to produce the same amount of

00:19:10

moonshine? Of course not. I have a question for you. I

00:19:14

mean, it is obvious, but I think that you are in a position that

00:19:16

can help us. Answer: What is the problem of officials in

00:19:20

a country like Egypt and in other countries with the production issue?

00:19:23

Is it absent? Is it, for example, the forces and centers of

00:19:27

import pressure? Let me call, I mean, a

00:19:30

very wonderful question, and part of it, I mean, it is a

00:19:35

multi-dimensional question, but I have come up with two different approaches. Is

00:19:42

there a

00:19:44

philosopher of origins? African,

00:19:49

French, Algerian by nationality. His name is Frantz Fanon.

00:19:53

What is he talking about? “Les Miserables of the Earth.” This is the title of a

00:19:58

very famous book. This is like, uh, The Rated or The

00:20:03

Earth, uh, the creation of God, uh, he put forward a very nice concept that

00:20:07

tells you that on the surface, I must stop at

00:20:11

what is apparent. What is the

00:20:13

rest of the skin? The black color and the white mask

00:20:18

make a difference. For example, in the Caribbean region, his color is

00:20:22

black, yes, but he wears a humeral mask, meaning that he does not

00:20:25

see everything except through the people of the West.

00:20:30

This is a very interesting topic, and it may

00:20:34

seem far from the economy, but it is at the heart of the economy, it

00:20:37

is the foundation on which it is built. It has perceptions

00:20:40

and actions. The second thing is also directly related to this

00:20:42

topic, between Hajjaj, through my

00:20:45

experience as a practicing minister, but the first point. The

00:20:48

first point we explain to the people means that the people

00:20:50

who are here, politicians and economists,

00:20:53

think according to the logic of what. I mean, to clarify, what is

00:20:57

his logic, according to the logic of the other, oh,

00:21:01

the tyrant or the one in control

00:21:04

? Call it what chat, but in the end, if we say

00:21:08

white, it is in the current scene, it is white, it is the

00:21:11

West, meaning exactly, it is the West. There is

00:21:14

another saying that speaks about this type of people, including

00:21:17

officials, by the way, without necessarily criticizing anyone who

00:21:21

speaks about the comprador. Oh, an expression that

00:21:26

we could have talked about before. It is

00:21:28

originally a Portuguese expression, and in this context it was invoked in the context of

00:21:33

the relationship between the inside and the outside to refer to

00:21:39

citizens, some of whom are officials,

00:21:42

whose main concern is the work of promoting the goods of

00:21:46

foreigners among their fellow citizens. Ok, your question remains, of

00:21:50

course, in this sense, it is a psychological issue. Yes, but

00:21:54

the issue is more dangerous than that in the structure of the relationship between the

00:21:58

inside. And abroad, you find that there are pressure forces

00:22:02

and interest groups that are pressing to maintain the situation

00:22:06

abroad, or to cancel the situation as it is

00:22:10

in the country we are talking about, and there are

00:22:14

forces from within, allied with it.

00:22:18

Take an example. Explain the story to us, Doctor. A

00:22:21

clear example. Take wheat in... The case of Egypt is that no

00:22:24

one can address the issue. It means the commodity of tuberculosis,

00:22:28

the subject of the topics, considering that you depend

00:22:31

on every loaf produced in Egypt, half of which originates abroad. It is

00:22:35

great, and yet the government gives the Egyptian farmer

00:22:39

360 or 65 dollars, and at that time it buys from the

00:22:43

French or American farmer 400 dollars.

00:22:46

Okay, okay here. What is happening in the case of

00:22:49

wheat? The

00:22:51

United States of America, France,

00:22:54

and all the countries that sell wheat look at Egypt with a

00:22:59

very special look. It is the largest consumer. What should it do? It

00:23:03

begins to see the sources of decision-making

00:23:08

regarding the purchase of wheat, etc., and

00:23:10

begins to deal with it at this level.

00:23:14

It takes the Minister of Supply when I was. Minister of

00:23:16

Supply, and an experience I recorded in the book, and I recorded it

00:23:20

here, and I recorded it here. This is something. The

00:23:23

second thing in B. But to clarify for those who

00:23:25

were not following us, officials from France and

00:23:27

America are coming to meet the Minister of Supply, such as Dr.

00:23:30

Gouda, who was not there for a period of time in an attempt to

00:23:32

pressure him to maintain the status of Egypt. As the largest

00:23:35

hidden thing in the background, we used to mix corn

00:23:39

with wheat in order to produce the loaf and thus reduce

00:23:41

our imports from abroad. This was a very annoying issue,

00:23:44

even though the percentage at the time was 10%. I mean,

00:23:47

as a thinker, more than 15% plus the lobby fulfilled the expression

00:23:53

of the merchants importing at home, ADD, D, two

00:23:57

things. The second is related to the

00:24:00

tools of hegemony abroad. When you come to see

00:24:04

who controls the grain trade at the

00:24:07

global level, they are international companies with major activity. Perhaps

00:24:11

it is one of the very famous American companies,

00:24:14

and by the way, it is a family company. In the end,

00:24:17

Cargill Cargill, oh, okay, that is the issue,

00:24:21

and therefore you are here. How do you deal with

00:24:24

this? I mean, I think that it is outside the scope of

00:24:28

economics in the pure sense. I need a political will. I

00:24:30

mean exactly. I want a

00:24:32

political will. By God, His Excellency, this doctor. I mean, he has

00:24:34

two sides. I mean, he

00:24:36

gives us, in any case, it is good for us to understand. It

00:24:39

gives us hope. It also gives us hope that the

00:24:42

issue is not economically complicated. Very much, no, but

00:24:47

the issue depends on the belief of the decision makers that

00:24:51

this can be achieved. Oh, I want, but before we leave

00:24:54

this point, Madam, I will clarify two additional issues. An

00:24:58

almost forgotten point in all of this controversy, which

00:25:02

is the point of the exchange system. The

00:25:05

exchange system, which is the countries that determine the exchange rate of their currencies

00:25:09

on the basis of There are countries that tell you, by God, that

00:25:12

almost all capabilities are tied to the dollar. I

00:25:16

will peg my currency to the dollar. Take the example of the Gulf countries.

00:25:19

No, yes, it is true. And you notice that every time the

00:25:23

Federal Bank raises the interest rate, they also raise the

00:25:26

interest rate. The exchange rate of their currency with the dollar

00:25:29

almost does not move, because most of their income is with this

00:25:32

commodity, because it He sells oil and gas, well, what is

00:25:35

sold in dollars is exactly that, okay, but there are

00:25:40

countries, and by the way, we are like this. We are linking the price of

00:25:43

the pound to the dollar. This is the point and this is the

00:25:46

big mistake. But I want to say that there are other alternatives. What is

00:25:49

that instead of pegging to one currency, you link

00:25:53

currencies to a basket of currencies, because when You peg

00:25:57

one currency to another, and when the price of this currency

00:26:00

increases or decreases, you will have direct and severe confusion.

00:26:04

If you peg it to a basket of currencies, it is most likely

00:26:10

that for these members of this basket, the currencies that make up it,

00:26:14

some of them will rise in price and some of them

00:26:16

will fall in price, so that in the end the movement

00:26:19

will be less severe than The movement in the event of a

00:26:23

peg to the price of one currency is understandable, Doctor.

00:26:27

I mean, for example, our largest trading partner is the

00:26:29

European Union. If there is a basket of

00:26:33

currencies, including, for example, the euro that has a large weight or the

00:26:38

Chinese yuan, the situation will be a little more stable,

00:26:40

but I also have a question: What is it about us? The pound

00:26:43

is low compared to all these currencies as a result of the fact that we do

00:26:46

not export them much. I mean, no, I am talking to you

00:26:48

now, not about a single procedure, which

00:26:52

is playing with the price, fulfilling the expression. The price of the currency,

00:26:56

whether the conditions improve or the conditions get worse.

00:27:00

No, I am talking about an arsenal of tools

00:27:03

used and procedures in addition to changing the

00:27:06

perspective. It is a very, very important issue. Look at the perception.

00:27:10

Perhaps I have said this in more than one meeting.

00:27:12

The perception is a ruler, of course. Of course it is not like that or anything.

00:27:15

Of course, the perception is a very ruler. So when you imagine that you are an

00:27:18

object, a follower, and deprived of your will towards the

00:27:23

outside, that is it. You have lost the match before it even

00:27:27

begins. This is an important issue, but sorry. So, just to complete

00:27:31

this point, what remains in addition to what

00:27:33

I suggested is that you use your rights in the

00:27:36

World Trade Organization and reconsider

00:27:41

your list of priorities, so that the areas of spending,

00:27:46

for example,

00:27:47

investment projects that have a very high foreign component, and

00:27:51

we have many examples in the Egyptian case,

00:27:54

reconsider them to the point. It harms the

00:27:58

movement of the economy in the immediate term

00:28:01

and the ongoing term. It means reconsidering the

00:28:04

projects that it stops and postpones because it consumes a

00:28:06

large amount of foreign exchange exactly and is causing a

00:28:08

major crisis. I mean, exactly that, exactly that,

00:28:13

and of course, here I said more than once, our

00:28:18

current situation requires that I declare a

00:28:22

war economy. And the word may shock you. What does it mean? It is also a

00:28:27

war. This is an important issue. It is very important. Its meaning is a

00:28:30

war economy.

00:28:32

It means that

00:28:35

society faces an

00:28:38

existential challenge towards others. Therefore, this should govern

00:28:43

all decisions and actions at home in a way that

00:28:48

enhances society’s chances of victory in the face of this

00:28:52

existential challenge. Esma’s speech. I know why. I don't

00:28:55

mean examples that explain the process to us, but I want to

00:28:58

mean that I have the next government that

00:28:59

will be formed in Egypt, etc. Take the issue of

00:29:02

prices. You are dealing with prices here. I mean, what is the

00:29:05

matter with merchants in the Emirate? I understand, but

00:29:09

when you say Okay, guys, from now on we

00:29:12

will apply tools. War economy means, and I said

00:29:17

this when I was the minister of the one who traded in

00:29:19

stoves in the black market.

00:29:22

Why, because you are in

00:29:24

a battle and it is a battle by all standards, and the battle is to make

00:29:28

it clear that you are in a situation with millions of victims,

00:29:32

sir. Of course it is not like that or anything. Yes,

00:29:34

the issue must be understood in this verse. In this way,

00:29:37

and therefore the general perception of your relationship

00:29:40

abroad, the issue of colored gel and the white mask

00:29:44

or this comprador, you must find a solution to it.

00:29:47

All of these issues, I mean,

00:29:50

outside of the economic gibberish perhaps, but they are the basis for

00:29:55

every achievement that can happen, and therefore I

00:29:58

say, guys, if

00:30:00

you please, we must solve matters in this. The field

00:30:05

and we do not run after the mirage of flotation. I have it

00:30:10

because it is ruin. I have one last question for you, and I

00:30:14

ask permission if I could be brief, meaning that

00:30:17

the picture remains clearer for whoever hears us from the

00:30:20

decision makers or for the people. I mean, you, Your Honor, said a word that

00:30:25

means you summarized in it what you want in terms of economic ideas

00:30:27

in the form of a statement on the state. To adopt a

00:30:31

war economy in a future government, if the

00:30:33

current government is or is coming, but there is supposed to be a

00:30:35

future government that if it wants to adopt your idea

00:30:38

and declare a war economy, it can take

00:30:42

dramatic measures like this. Okay, I

00:30:45

will tell you the first

00:30:47

thing in the field of dealing with the outside.

00:30:51

Everything cannot continue. As it is, uh, there must be

00:30:56

radical sectors, not just

00:30:59

marginal amendments here and there, such as, for example, that you take the

00:31:03

flower bill, study the details, and set

00:31:07

priorities. Let me tell you the difference between this

00:31:10

and what the government pursued once. Do you remember in

00:31:12

2022 when there was a

00:31:16

capital flight? The foreign currency is such and such and 2 billion. He

00:31:20

told you, Okay, let's work for now. What is

00:31:22

importing according to the method of so-called

00:31:27

payment documents? Here we will work with documentary credits.

00:31:32

What do the payment documents mean? You are importing from a

00:31:34

foreign source. You present to our customs authorities

00:31:39

something that indicates that you paid the value of these goods

00:31:42

in your own way. That's it. The system that was in place

00:31:46

until then led to an explosion in the value and types of

00:31:51

imports. When there was pressure due to the displacement of

00:31:55

capital, it says, “We will not change this. We stop

00:31:58

working with the collection documents

00:32:00

and do the rule that is supposed to be obligatory

00:32:03

and natural, which is the outstanding credits.

00:32:08

What do the outstanding credits mean if I go to the bank and

00:32:10

say?” To him, I am a copy of such and such from such and such a source,

00:32:14

and according to the dealings, we have shown the value of the imported goods

00:32:17

as much, and if you please, pay the return in

00:32:21

Egyptian pounds, we will transfer it to him, so he will transfer it from the collection documents

00:32:28

that were valid with it until the 22nd. The importer was

00:32:30

managing the foreign currency himself, so he was in a

00:32:33

black market, meaning, there was an explosion in its value. The size of

00:32:38

the roses is perfect up to the target appropriations,

00:32:41

which is

00:32:42

the method that should have been adhered to,

00:32:47

but all of this is within the limits of what you are also

00:32:50

leaving the field open for those who can manage, so it turns out

00:32:55

that pharmaceutical companies, for example, were not able to manage

00:32:58

their cloves, which affected the production of atmosphere in a very vital field.

00:33:02

Internally, I mean, I say that the move indicates that

00:33:04

this step will also require that it be a

00:33:07

priority in what it imports. Not everyone who wants to

00:33:09

import something should import it. This is one, one,

00:33:13

two. I have already idle production capacities.

00:33:17

There is something called factories that have been closed since the

00:33:22

days of the 2011 revolution, and we could not afford it. How many statements, but

00:33:27

the issue is no longer discussed at all. This does not

00:33:30

mean that these factories worked and returned to work.

00:33:34

No, they did not return to work.

00:33:36

Therefore, what should you take? What is

00:33:39

his problem? Is there a problem with the bank that addresses this problem?

00:33:43

Is there a problem with, for example, certain government agencies that address

00:33:46

this so that it is you? You can pay a significant number of

00:33:51

factories to work again. Working again.

00:33:53

This creates job opportunities. It creates movement in the market. It increases your

00:33:58

production capacity in the face of the outside world. It is a great

00:34:02

number. It is necessary to follow the market tools considered

00:34:07

in the

00:34:09

verse: stimulation and blocking. Meaning that we

00:34:14

talked about the issue of wheat, which is necessary in the process.

00:34:17

Pricing for important agricultural crops. What do you do? Do

00:34:21

you give a good price for the commodity

00:34:24

that you want to produce,

00:34:27

industries, agriculture, tourism, etc., or services? I

00:34:29

mean exactly that. Ah, here, you set the rose

00:34:32

priorities and apply them strictly and

00:34:36

with economic logic. Keep in mind. I mean, as I say,

00:34:39

war economy, I mean with nerve. The knife does not have to

00:34:42

mean guided by an economic logic that distinguishes between what is

00:34:46

necessary and what is least important and what is least important

00:34:50

so as not to cause confusion in the arena. In the

00:34:52

economic arena, what follows from that is that you are not

00:34:57

part of the war economy. It is in the

00:35:00

current spending in the state’s general budget that

00:35:02

this spending must be re-theorized.

00:35:05

In the direction of reducing it by a significant percentage, and I said

00:35:09

more than once that it is very possible in the

00:35:11

Egyptian case, and I am speaking from experience as a

00:35:15

former minister, that you reduce current spending in the

00:35:18

state’s general budget by a fifth of 20%, with

00:35:22

very great satisfaction. I mean, many details in 20

00:35:27

in can be dispensed with. Mbo, oh, I mean,

00:35:29

you are talking about one in every five pounds. What is

00:35:32

the issue? I mean, the important thing is to study and take a

00:35:35

decision and implement the decision decisively. This, of course, will be

00:35:39

heard on the other side of the

00:35:40

foreign club. This part of the ongoing dispute is translated

00:35:43

at length when the government publications take its construction. This is an

00:35:46

item from Son, no, what about government publications, sorry?

00:35:48

Government publications

00:35:51

have a very high foreign component because you are a country that

00:35:54

completely imports paper from abroad, oh, for

00:35:58

example, or even the pens that you write with,

00:36:01

or things like this. You are advised that austerity

00:36:04

will inevitably result in a reduction in

00:36:06

foreign imports, uh. Mbout Mbout It is self-evident, in addition to

00:36:09

the priorities that must be reconsidered

00:36:12

with regard to the so-called national projects,

00:36:14

and let us call them investment projects. A. In

00:36:19

general, this is a requirement of the war economy. What is the

00:36:23

requirement of the idea? What remains in the war economy?

00:36:25

I will express it as a big deal. I mean, all the people. I will not

00:36:29

tell you what. The home is forbidden except for the

00:36:31

mosque,

00:36:32

oh, and therefore the essence of the idea of movement in the

00:36:36

war economy is that the state will intervene more

00:36:41

than it does now, but this intervention is aimed at

00:36:45

controlling the situation, and one of the most important tools or

00:36:48

goals of intervention must be in austerity, and the government begins

00:36:52

by itself and begins by itself through Austerity in the

00:36:56

general budget and it starts on its own with regard

00:37:01

to the projects that are being adopted if they have a

00:37:05

dollar component in particular, or if

00:37:08

the projects are not very urgent to be postponed and

00:37:11

censored to a large extent, meaning the market, as

00:37:15

I understand from you, there is no strict control, meaning the

00:37:17

issue of origin is free. Mind you, when I said the war economy,

00:37:20

the expression did not come out of nowhere. I said it for two reasons. The

00:37:24

first reason is that you, as an economy, are exposed to a

00:37:27

very severe shock coming from the outside for

00:37:32

many reasons. There is no need to go into them, but the

00:37:35

second thing is that you have an imminent danger on the borders, on

00:37:39

all borders. Yes, on all borders. This is not the case. No,

00:37:42

oh, I mean, people don't even think that

00:37:45

Yemen is one of our borders. I mean, no, of course, your borders are in the

00:37:47

vital field. The speaker's idea is about Yemen.

00:37:49

We're talking about Sudan. We're talking about Libya.

00:37:52

Of course, we're talking about occupied Palestine, and we're talking

00:37:55

about the global situation. It's exactly like that. No,

00:37:57

and therefore this is Ethiopia's strategic reading,

00:38:00

not Ethiopia's reading. There is no blame on the stock market reading. I

00:38:04

mean, if prices went up, all this talk went down.

00:38:09

This means in the margins in comparison to the

00:38:13

topic. By God, this means that you surprised me

00:38:17

with the idea of a war economy that the

00:38:20

next state or government in Egypt should adopt. It is clear that

00:38:22

other governments should adopt it. Your permission,

00:38:25

I will appeal to you. We will talk about this idea in

00:38:29

other episodes, and we take advantage of the opportunity that people will ask questions. So,

00:38:32

your permission, the next episode that

00:38:35

we talked about the exchange rate and this currency, God willing, will be

00:38:39

with questions and more. I

00:38:42

apologize to the people who tried to simplify it. Their questions,

00:38:45

of course, will remain very enlightening. Thank you.

00:38:49

Thank you very much, Doctor

Description:

الدكتور جودة عبدالخالق يشرح مساوئ قرار التعويم المرتقب فى مصر ودول أخرى تعانى من شح الدولار ويقترح بدائل للخروج من الأزمة الاقتصادية فهرس الحلقة ماذا يعنى التعويم علميا ولماذا لا يناسب مصر؟ 00:00 أصول مصر ستكون متاحة بنصف قيمتها لمن يرغب فى شرائها بالدولار 10:30 بدائل التعويم للخروج من الأزمة 12:41 لماذا لا ننتج شيئا ولا يهتم المسئولون بزيادة الإنتاج؟ 19:16 لماذا يجب ان نربط الجنيه بسلة عملات وليس بالدولار ؟ 25:00 ما هو اقتصاد الحرب ولماذا مصر فى حاجة إليه؟ 28:16 تابعونا على : FACEBOOK : Sayed Goubeyal سيد جبيل TIKTOK : https://www.tiktok.com/explore INSTAGRAM : https://www.facebook.com/unsupportedbrowser تابعوا نعرف اقتصاد علي https://www.facebook.com/unsupportedbrowser تابعوا سيد جبيل علي https://www.facebook.com/unsupportedbrowser

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