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Subtitles
Russian
00:00:00
inflation in Russia set a new00:00:02
record in November 2023,00:00:04
prices for many products rose sharply as00:00:06
a result, weekly inflation reached its00:00:08
highest since December 2022, when a00:00:12
wave of tariff indexation swept through the Russian economy;00:00:13
now annual00:00:16
inflation has reached almost 7% and this is not the00:00:18
limit, economists say Read more about00:00:20
this Natalya00:00:22
Gusk, the economic situation in Russia00:00:25
continues to deteriorate and00:00:26
ordinary Russians are already feeling this;00:00:29
food and00:00:31
non-food products are an00:00:33
inflationary disaster zone; economists00:00:34
call the meat, vegetable and fruit00:00:36
departments of supermarkets where price increases since the00:00:39
beginning of the year are measured in tens of00:00:41
percent of the price of eggs in October.00:00:43
compared to September increased by00:00:45
13.1 pro since the beginning of the year by00:00:49
18.7 pro in annual terms by00:00:54
23.9 chicken in the past month00:00:56
increased in price by00:00:58
3.7 from the beginning of the year by00:01:02
29.1 compared to October last00:01:05
year by00:01:07
26.8 increase prices were also noted for certain00:01:10
types of fruit and vegetable products, which in00:01:12
general over the month have risen in price by00:01:15
1.9 since the beginning of the year by 11% in annual00:01:19
terms by 24% from reports of the00:01:22
Federal State00:01:23
Statistics Service on the agency’s website, almost00:01:26
45% of Russian citizens do not have enough00:01:28
wages to cover basic00:01:30
needs and 36% of Russians even live00:01:34
on the verge of poverty, these are the results of a survey of00:01:36
the largest Russian company for finding00:01:38
work on the Internet in Russia,00:01:40
inflation is accelerating and this is a really big00:01:43
problem for many Russians and they see00:01:45
price increases that are not at all what00:01:47
Rosstat gives or what is calculated in front of00:01:50
the government or the state00:01:52
Central Bank They see the rise in prices that00:01:54
they see in stores They look at how00:01:56
their basket is becoming more expensive, it is becoming more expensive00:01:58
much faster and there is not 67% and there we are00:02:01
talking about tens of percentage points00:02:04
People also constantly write to me about this00:02:06
how much the price of these or that has risen other goods00:02:08
and this, in general, is of course a big problem,00:02:10
and inflation will accelerate as early as00:02:13
July 2023. The Central Bank of Russia00:02:16
predicted annual inflation at a level of00:02:18
5 to00:02:19
65%; in September, we revised our forecast.00:02:23
We updated the inflation forecast for this and00:02:25
next years; the updated forecast00:02:28
took into account actual growth prices as well as the00:02:30
effect of the increase in government spending in the new00:02:32
budget this year, prices will increase by 700:02:37
75% Moscow has increased the expenditure side of the00:02:39
2023 budget by at least 3.400:02:43
trillion rubles, writes the financial00:02:46
Times and is connected with the increase in the Kremlin’s spending00:02:48
on the war against Ukraine by Against this backdrop, the00:02:51
Federation's mortgage prices have risen sharply;00:02:53
average rates for the purchase of housing00:02:55
have already reached00:02:57
14%; you have to pay more; and for00:02:59
rent in just a month, in some00:03:01
cities the fee has increased by a quarter; the00:03:04
national average for renting one-room00:03:06
apartments from September to October 202300:03:09
has risen in price by 7% to 20,000 rubles per month00:03:12
two-room apartments by00:03:15
5.9 to 26.1 rubles from three-room apartments by00:03:20
4.5 to 33,000 rubles However, in Moscow00:03:24
the cost of a one-room apartment increased by00:03:28
12.9 two-room apartments by00:03:31
12.3 and three-room apartments by00:03:34
7.7 in St. Petersburg Prices jumped00:03:37
accordingly by00:03:38
17.1 about 99% and00:03:42
0.3 about from the publication of the Russian00:03:46
Service The mosk of times in 2024 The Kremlin00:03:49
plans to spend00:03:51
up to 40% of the state budget on the war against Ukraine. With this money,00:03:56
funding for healthcare and00:03:58
education for the entire federation could be increased sevenfold.00:04:00
Calculated publication of an important story But it00:04:02
is more important for Putin to spend these funds on00:04:05
killing civilians in a neighboring country, which00:04:07
means Russians will continue to00:04:09
rapidly become poorer Natalia Gusak00:04:11
Vladimir Shunge for the Frida TV channel00:04:14
we will discuss this topic with our guest00:04:18
Ivan Us Candidate of Economic Sciences00:04:20
Chief Consultant of the Center for00:04:21
Foreign Policy Research of the00:04:23
National Institute of Strategic Studies00:04:25
research joins our00:04:27
broadcast Ivan Welcome you Good morning00:04:31
Good morning studio Good morning viewers00:04:33
Ivan the other day Dmitry Peskov said00:04:38
that our country has adapted to00:04:40
the sanctions Let it last for another 10 years00:04:44
import substitution works Everything is fine everything is00:04:47
great economy growth and so on and so00:04:49
forth Well, what’s in it? the truth And00:04:52
what the Kremlin press secretary is being00:04:55
disingenuous about is that the00:04:58
really expected decline in the00:05:00
Russian economy, which was talked about00:05:02
immediately after the introduction of sanctions, I will remind you of00:05:04
this rhetoric that the sanctions for hell, which will00:05:07
essentially, let’s say, destroy the Russian00:05:10
economy, this did not happen here, a00:05:12
certain truth is present, but it is necessary00:05:14
understand that this did not happen, firstly,00:05:16
because the world was not ready to00:05:20
immediately exclude the eleventh economy in its00:05:22
own world, which Russia was even00:05:25
in 2022, but at the same time, it is far from ready to say00:05:28
that everything is fine in the Russian economy,00:05:30
simply00:05:33
because we see that,00:05:34
firstly, Russia from a country with a00:05:38
traditionally surplus economy00:05:40
has turned into a country with a deficit00:05:42
economy. Yes, now, according to the report that the00:05:46
Ministry of Finance of Russia gave00:05:48
after 10 months, incomes in Russia00:05:50
have increased significantly and expenses00:05:54
have increased, but not so significantly. That00:05:56
is, now it’s still the budget deficit is being observed,00:06:00
but this is at the level of00:06:03
1.2 trillion rubles. Although00:06:06
they planned for this year00:06:08
2.9. That is, it turns out that, in00:06:10
comparison with the plan, they even have a00:06:13
better situation, but you know, first of all, this00:06:16
sharp increase in income makes me00:06:19
a little bit it’s just surprising Let’s give two00:06:21
figures in September from the oil and gas industry,00:06:26
Russia received00:06:28
74000:06:30
and in October 1 three,600 billion, that is, a more00:06:35
than twofold increase in one month,00:06:38
this seems to me a little fantastic00:06:41
and here, in fact, this is what lies in these figures. It00:06:45
may still be not00:06:49
so big, but still a suspicion that in00:06:52
Russia there is real improvement on paper,00:06:55
but it doesn’t exist in real life, and this00:06:57
dissonance between what is on paper and00:07:00
what is in real life is growing00:07:02
more and more00:07:04
Ivan, what about all these processes?00:07:06
are displayed on the wallets of the average00:07:09
Russian, they feel it, perhaps they00:07:12
feel it differently in big cities and00:07:14
somewhere in the outback. Well, look, firstly, there is00:07:17
some kind of price increase that00:07:20
you talked about in the summary of the story.00:07:23
Secondly, you know the problem is now in Russia00:07:26
Here we quote Aliro Sahib Zadov Nau00:07:29
She said that don’t expect cheap money in the00:07:32
coming years This means that the00:07:34
Central Bank of Russia will not00:07:37
lower the discount rate, it has now00:07:39
raised it to 15, you know, even It’s an00:07:41
elementary comparison between Ukraine and Russia,00:07:43
yes, we had a very high discount00:07:45
rate of 25% for a very long period, but00:07:48
now we have lowered it to 16 and in December it00:07:50
will be 15. Russia, on the contrary,00:07:53
has raised the rate now to 15 and it is unknown00:07:58
in the near future, perhaps it will increase once again; a00:08:01
high discount00:08:04
rate means that it will be quite00:08:06
expensive money in In Russia, more and00:08:09
more people now live not at the expense of the00:08:11
salaries they receive, but at the expense of00:08:13
loans, the number of families with three00:08:17
or more loans has increased by 2000 units,00:08:22
that is, 2000 families now have three00:08:24
more loans. This means that many00:08:27
loans are taken out in order to close00:08:30
previous But the higher the discount rate,00:08:32
the more expensive the loans will be, the more expensive the Booth00:08:35
loans, the more difficult it will be to carry out the00:08:37
operation of refinancing your00:08:39
previous loans, simply because there00:08:42
will be more significant payments on00:08:44
interest and, in fact, this creates the00:08:47
main risk for the Russian economy,00:08:49
that the people who live in it due to00:08:53
loans, sooner or later they will not be able to00:08:55
repay these loans in large volumes,00:08:57
this already exists, they no longer repay them,00:08:59
there will be more of them, but as soon as this00:09:03
period, this number of or rather non-00:09:05
returns will become large and Russian00:09:08
banks will simply stop giving loans and00:09:10
here we are coming back to the point that00:09:13
people live off loans and if00:09:15
Russian banks, seeing non-repayment, stop giving00:09:18
loans, this is called the collapse of the economy00:09:21
and this is something that may well happen;00:09:23
moreover, this may not happen in00:09:25
any long-term perspective; this is00:09:28
something that can happen in a year00:09:30
the end of00:09:31
2024 Well, maybe the beginning of the twenty-00:09:34
fifth But this means that the dynamics are00:09:36
obvious where everything is going and since00:09:39
Russia does not change its approaches, this00:09:42
only brings this point closer when the00:09:45
banking00:09:47
structures of this00:09:49
[music]00:09:58
country stop giving loans00:10:02
HDescription:
UA - У Росії рекордно злетіли ціни на все: причиною масштабної інфляції є війна проти України, на яку кремлівський режим спускає всі гроші. До сих пор не подписаны на УНИАН в Telegram? https://t.me/uniannet RU - В России рекордно взлетели цены на всё: причинами масштабной инфляции является война против Украины, на которую кремлевский режим спускает все деньги.
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