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Russian
00:00:12
[Music] Hello to everyone from Cumhuriyet TV screens,00:00:14
dear viewers, we are approaching the New Year.00:00:28
We will talk about ending the year 2023. Today, we will talk about the issue because00:00:31
retirees have been crushed under inflation for a very long time00:00:33
and we often00:00:35
try to bring this issue to the agenda.00:00:38
Today, we will talk with social policy expert Professor Doctor00:00:40
Aziz Çelik.00:00:41
Welcome. We found it very welcome. Good publication.00:00:43
Thank you. Now, we know that retirees have been complaining about their salaries for a very00:00:46
long time,00:00:49
in an environment where inflation is increasing day by day, and they have not been able to live on their salaries. Finally,00:00:56
no regulation or raise has been given to them, and now, of00:00:58
course, in the coming days. Of course,00:01:00
there is an expectation, but In one aspect,00:01:03
how will it be calculated and what will it be based on? Well, should00:01:06
we listen to your predictions and ideas00:01:09
first? Of course,00:01:15
retirees are divided into two groups. Well, they will be received at the beginning of the year. In00:01:17
terms of00:01:20
pensions, the first group00:01:22
consists of workers and Bagkur retirees,00:01:24
according to the law. Well, according to the last 6 months' CPI00:01:28
rate. So,00:01:31
how much of a raise they will receive is made by law, largely depending on the00:01:33
consumer price index in July and December.00:01:38
Well,00:01:41
the government can go above this in certain periods, or it00:01:43
completes the minimum pension00:01:49
with a treasury contribution to a certain amount. So, at the moment,00:01:52
As you know, the minimum pension is00:01:54
said to be 7,500 lira. Actually,00:01:57
it is not 7,500 lira, the minimum pension is00:01:59
lower, that is, there are pensions around 4,500, 5,000 L, 6,000 L. With the00:02:02
treasury00:02:05
contribution, this is completed to 7,500 lira. The00:02:08
government does this every period with a legal00:02:10
regulation, but in principle, this is what is00:02:12
done. As a rule, a raise is given to workers and tradesmen00:02:15
retirees, that is, Bagkur and00:02:17
SSK retirees, in the old words, at the00:02:21
rate of 6-month inflation.00:02:23
But apart from that,00:02:26
Apart from that, the government goes above and beyond this from time to00:02:28
time. In what we mentioned above, it00:02:31
was for some retiree groups. The second group of00:02:33
retirees is civil servant retirees. The00:02:38
raise formula in the collective agreement signed for civil servants is applied. This00:02:42
is also inflation. In January, this00:02:44
inflation will be E plus approximately 9 points,00:02:48
that is, the raise to be applied to Labor civil servant retirees00:02:52
is determined by the collective agreement, so00:02:55
inflation is00:02:57
one of the important criteria00:03:00
for both retiree groups. On top of that, the inflationary thing is that the collective00:03:02
agreement difference is applied to the civil servants. Well,00:03:08
they received a 6% collective agreement raise in July. They will receive a 155% raise in January. When00:03:11
these two00:03:12
are subtracted from each other, 9 points come from there.00:03:15
Therefore, at the moment, in00:03:18
terms of legislation, what will be done is00:03:20
These raises can only be increased00:03:22
due to the government election period.00:03:25
Of course, they can go beyond these. Well, the completion00:03:28
process, that is, the pension, which is currently 7,500 liras,00:03:33
can be increased to a higher amount. The first option is00:03:35
Well, this is it. The other one is the00:03:38
raise to be given to retirees or the raise to be given to workers' retirees.00:03:42
Well, inflation will be announced.00:03:45
It is possible to increase the rate above e. We can00:03:48
only know this in the first 15 days of January00:03:52
because00:03:54
inflation will be announced on the 3rd of January. After the inflation00:03:56
is announced, we will see whether the government will make an additional regulation on this issue or not,00:04:00
but if not, this is what will happen.00:04:02
Well, 6 months of00:04:05
inflation for retired workers. There will be a raise for retired civil servants at the rate of00:04:07
6 months of inflation plus 9 points of collective00:04:10
bargaining difference. Well,00:04:13
this is the implementation in January,00:04:16
that is, there are two separate systems. The implementation of the thing00:04:20
depends on the conditions of that period. Eee,00:04:26
whether the government will bring anything additional depending on the political conditions. Eee.00:04:28
It will be clear, but it is00:04:30
not possible to say that right now. Probably, but00:04:33
due to local elections, these amounts00:04:35
will be slightly higher, that is,00:04:38
a 6-month inflation rate of around 38%00:04:40
is expected. Currently,00:04:58
33,600% will be applied. Apart from this,00:05:01
the government will bring to the parliament the regulation that will determine politically how much will be higher than this.00:05:07
And after the legal regulation is00:05:09
passed by the parliament, this will be implemented, so00:05:14
this is the formula or mechanism of this raise thing. That's why it's00:05:17
too early to say the exact amount, so it's a little difficult00:05:19
to say an amount saying they will get this much at this rate.00:05:22
Huh. Well, Mr. Çelik, now the00:05:25
retirees are also Well, they have been demanding for a very long time.00:05:27
In fact, what the workers00:05:29
want are more permanent solutions rather than a gradual raise or00:05:35
bringing their salaries to the lowest pension level with the treasury support.00:05:37
Now, the00:05:40
Minister of Treasury and Finance, Mehmet Şimşek,00:05:42
actually sees these wage increases00:05:44
as a cause of inflation.00:05:47
We know that you are not very positive about it, but on the other00:05:48
hand, as you said, the elections00:05:50
are approaching. Do you think that in the coming days,00:05:58
even if the government gives a raise that will be good enough for retirees to be comfortable for at least 45 months of 2024, will it00:06:01
do this as a permanent solution or,00:06:03
again, treasury aid00:06:05
is like a welfare share? Will00:06:08
we see an application now? Of course,00:06:12
while discussing the increase in pensions, we should not forget where the increase00:06:14
will be applied. Therefore,00:06:16
the discussion of the increase in pensions00:06:18
contains a serious trap. Because this increase00:06:21
was made to the root pensions. For example, let's00:06:24
assume that it was made % Well, if00:06:27
a person whose root pension is currently 6,000 lira gets a 50%00:06:30
increase. If he gets 99,000 lira, it looks like it00:06:33
has increased by 3,000 lira, but in fact,00:06:35
since he has already received 7,500 lira, there will be a difference of 00 lira.00:06:37
Therefore, he will get a raise of 25%, not %.00:06:43
Therefore, what is important here00:06:49
is not how much the root pension will increase. Retiree.00:06:53
The debate about where the minimum pension will be drawn is00:06:55
very important here.00:06:58
Since the treasury will cover it, now00:07:01
SSI pays the pensions. Under normal circumstances,00:07:03
SSI pays, but the completion process00:07:05
is done by the treasury.00:07:07
As you know, the treasury depends on the minister of finance and the00:07:09
minister of finance or the new economic00:07:11
management is very keen on this. That's00:07:13
why the thing that will be discussed as much as the pensions is that the00:07:15
pensions00:07:21
should be increased by around 40%, it is important where to increase them. For00:07:24
example, if you reduce the minimum pension to 10,00000:07:26
liras but00:07:29
increase the pensions by 10%, some retirees00:07:32
will get a 30% increase. Well, they will get a 33% increase,00:07:35
some will get a 40% increase. That is,00:07:37
those with low pensions will00:07:39
be lower. If the completion process, that is, the00:07:41
7,500 lira completion process, is00:07:43
not changed. So if it remains the same, some00:07:46
retirees may receive a zero raise. Well, in this00:07:48
case, this thing happened in July,00:07:52
as you know, there was a 25% raise in July. However, this00:07:56
25% raise is the root of the raise. Since it is made for pensions,00:08:01
retirees whose pensions are 6,000 L or less have received a zero raise and00:08:03
they have been living with this zero raise for a long time. The same00:08:06
situation is the case in January as well.00:08:08
Therefore, what is as important as the rate is the00:08:13
issue of where the raise will be made, now pensions in Turkey.00:08:15
Since 2008, the00:08:18
system of giving pensions to retirees00:08:21
has been seriously changed and00:08:23
pensions00:08:26
have decreased. Retirement rates have been reduced. That's why pensions are00:08:27
gradually decreasing. The government00:08:30
introduced this completion process as a fix. But this00:08:32
completion process also00:08:34
contains such a trap within itself, that is, the increase is the root.00:08:36
It is done on a monthly basis. Well, the difference00:08:39
is paid. When the root pension is low, the00:08:41
raise becomes meaningless.00:08:43
There is also such a danger in January, that is, some00:08:44
retirees may receive a zero raise, some00:08:47
retirees may receive a lower raise than the announced raise.00:08:50
Well, the most00:08:52
practical way to prevent this. Of course, the completion amount is00:08:55
also included in the pensions. It should be00:08:57
increased as much as the average raise to be made,00:08:59
that is,00:09:02
you need to increase the 7,500 lira by %, or00:09:04
if this is the case as much as the increase to be given to retirees, the current00:09:06
balance will be preserved a little, but00:09:09
of course this is not enough. The pension system in Turkey00:09:13
needs to change fundamentally. This means that it will00:09:15
lead to the current situation. Well, it is a00:09:24
legal regulation that reduces the monthly pension rates and eliminates retirees from receiving a share of the national income. It needs to be changed.00:09:27
Without this change, there will not be00:09:29
a significant improvement in the pension,00:09:33
there will not be a radical improvement. Uh, Mr. Çelik, now,00:09:36
on the other hand, the minimum wage will be increased in the new year.00:09:40
Now, for the last 2 years, we have seen that regulations have been made to the minimum wage and00:09:43
sometimes to the pensions00:09:45
twice a year.00:09:47
Because inflation00:09:49
was increasing very rapidly and purchasing power00:09:51
was decreasing, but as of this year,00:09:58
we heard statements from the ruling bloc that one increase would be enough. Tab Of course, inflation is also in place.00:10:00
It doesn't stop. The situation is still the same, contraction,00:10:02
inflation was last announced. You00:10:04
actually brought this issue to the agenda in the past few days, well,00:10:05
once. So,00:10:14
what00:10:16
will happen next 2024 if the minimum wage continues with the increase in January and there is no new regulation, what kind of a year do you think 2024 will be?00:10:20
Of course, first of all, this is what it will be like. Let me tell you,00:10:25
there is no rule that the minimum wage should be increased once a year. Well, the00:10:27
minimum wage can be increased every 3 months,00:10:30
it can be done once a month,00:10:32
it can be done every 6 months, the legislation is suitable for this,00:10:34
that is, it can be done when the Minister of Labor calls a meeting of the minimum wage determination00:10:36
commission, we00:10:38
have only one rule here, it00:10:40
cannot exceed two years. The00:10:42
minimum wage process cannot be more than two years. Therefore, it is00:10:47
possible for the minimum wage to be determined for shorter periods. This has also been the case in the past,00:10:49
that is,00:10:52
it has been determined twice a year. It has even been determined three times a year.00:10:56
Therefore, this is possible. In which period does this usually00:10:59
happen? This happens during periods of high inflation.00:11:02
During inflation periods, AKP governments also00:11:05
did this in recent years.00:11:07
They did this not only in recent years,00:11:09
after they came to power, there was a00:11:11
minimum wage increase twice a year for a long time. As00:11:14
you know, in the current00:11:17
system, there are twice a year raises in collective agreements,00:11:19
retirees have twice a year raises.00:11:22
Again, it is required by law that the civil servants'00:11:25
collective agreement and retired civil servants00:11:27
also have raises twice a year. Therefore,00:11:29
twice a year raises are actually a common00:11:31
practice. The main00:11:34
reason for this is that the minimum wage is not protected against inflation.00:11:36
If all wages00:11:39
receive a raise twice a year, the minimum wage is increased once a year.00:11:41
There is no point in giving a raise.00:11:45
Since inflation will continue to be high, the minimum wage00:11:48
should be determined at least twice a year.00:11:51
If it is not determined,00:11:53
if it is determined annually, one year is a very long time. For00:11:54
a year, there00:11:58
will be a serious erosion in the minimum wage.00:12:00
Just like how retirees do. In July,00:12:03
a significant portion of them did not receive a raise and00:12:05
there is a serious decline.00:12:08
A similar problem may occur in the minimum wage,00:12:10
that is, it may face something serious after the election.00:12:13
Therefore, the00:12:15
method of determining the minimum wage twice00:12:18
should be continued. Moreover,00:12:20
this is already one-sided. As a00:12:23
fait accompli, there is nothing the government can do, there00:12:25
is a commission,00:12:27
there are parties in the commission, their00:12:29
opinions are taken into consideration, something should be done, and the decision00:12:32
is taken into consideration. Therefore,00:12:35
this is actually a single raise. Or a one-00:12:38
time raise. Actually, the00:12:40
Minister of Finance's request is, "Let's cut the wages, let's00:12:44
cut the wages." It is00:12:46
a product of the "we will reduce wages" approach, that is, the00:12:48
approach of pressuring to cut wages.00:12:53
It is possible to see this as a rash. Hmm, how00:12:55
do you evaluate this approach? I00:12:57
mean, this approach is an approach that has been on00:13:00
the agenda from time to time in Turkey since Özal,00:13:04
this approach is00:13:07
extremely dangerous. If you see the purchasing00:13:10
power of wages as the cause of inflation,00:13:14
you will try to suppress the purchasing power and wages. Well, this00:13:20
will lead to unemployment and stagnation in the economy, that is, while you are trying to reduce inflation, it00:13:25
means making a big mistake. If they insist on this, there will be a serious increase00:13:29
in unemployment after the election.00:13:31
It can lead to an increase and lead to stagnation in the economy.00:13:36
It can lead to a slowdown in growth. Therefore,00:13:38
an anti-inflation program by suppressing wages and demand00:13:41
is wrong.00:13:43
Because the main reason for inflation, that is,00:13:46
inflation is not an issue caused by wage increase.00:13:48
In Turkey, the00:13:53
effect of wages on inflation is extremely limited.00:13:55
Central Bank President also00:13:57
said recently that a 10 point wage00:13:59
increase causes approximately 1 point inflation.00:14:02
Therefore, we need to look at00:14:05
where the remaining 9 points, that is 0%,00:14:08
come from. There00:14:10
is an increase in foreign exchange, there are taxes, and00:14:12
the most important thing in this is profits, there are excessive profits,00:14:15
so inflation is caused by00:14:18
When you misdiagnose the reason,00:14:21
you also misunderstand the struggle. I think this is the mistake that the government00:14:22
or the Ministry of Finance is making right now. Uh,00:14:24
Mr. Çelik.00:14:27
Thank you very much, of course. Well,00:14:29
generally, as we get closer to the elections, we see00:14:31
better wage increases or increases.00:14:37
In fact, we are afraid of 2024 and then00:14:57
2028. Yes, dear Cumhuriyet TV00:14:59
viewers, we talked about pensions.00:15:01
Today, retirees have been trying to get by on low salaries for a very long time,00:15:03
and00:15:05
in fact they cannot make ends meet.00:15:07
We often hear this from them, and we are passing it on to you.00:15:09
Now, a regulation00:15:11
will be made in January, and we look at the criteria for these regulations.00:15:15
Professor Doctor00:15:17
Aziz Çelik is our guest.00:15:19
See you again with dots for now00:15:29
[Music]00:15:35
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