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00:00:01
[music]
00:00:24
Hello dear friends and subscribers of
00:00:27
our YouTube channel, today we have the
00:00:29
next release of the project forecast for
00:00:32
2023. Doctor of
00:00:34
Economic Sciences, Professor Valentin
00:00:37
Yuryevich Katasonov is in touch with us and today he will tell
00:00:39
us about what can await us in
00:00:42
2023 from the point of view economics Valentin
00:00:45
Yuryevich in 2022 there were a lot of
00:00:47
events that probably did not bypass more
00:00:49
than one country on our planet. With the
00:00:52
beginning of certain events, the ruble
00:00:53
grew rapidly, then the rate also
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fell rapidly. How can you describe
00:00:57
what happened? You understand. Of course, I would not
00:01:00
start the conversation with the ruble. the ruble, so
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to speak,
00:01:08
in the world of
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public relations, international
00:01:13
relations
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and foreign policy, the
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ruble exchange rate appears like this, uh,
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of course, uh, the turning point of
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February 24 of this year, there seems to be
00:01:33
nothing to argue with. Although, of course, there were signs
00:01:36
that they were already preparing for this event.
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including participants in the markets of
00:01:43
financial commodity markets Well,
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as for the Russian Federation, but
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actually everyone knows Yes, the Russian leaders did not particularly hide the abbreviation of
00:01:52
their special military operation,
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they said that during the year this
00:02:01
special military operation was being prepared,
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some people there are talking about the
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economic sanctions of the collective
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West. What do they say? These economic
00:02:11
sanctions are like an elephant, the
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question that I wanted to ask you is that
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all these sanctions hit
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Russia itself more or those who introduced them.
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Well, naturally, it
00:02:25
boomeranged itself, these sanctions
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hit Europe first of all. The
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United States in this sense is good
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everyone read for them the boomerang effect
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was minimal, but for Europe,
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in fact, it was a blow under But
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everyone knows this very well. I will not
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decipher this thesis, but I would like to
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decipher another thesis about the fact
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that we
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calmly withstood all these sanctions. I would
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still get lost about such
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optimism, because after all, this
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initial effect will begin to disappear,
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and the initial positive effect
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was that suddenly a
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shortage arose in the energy market and,
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oddly enough, Russia became the main
00:03:14
beneficiary of all these problems, but the fact is
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that after some time the West and
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also Europe is adapting to the new situation
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and, in my opinion, according to my estimates, the
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price of energy resources, of course, at the beginning of
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next year will already be significantly
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lower, respectively, the currency
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rain that fell over Russia and it
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turned into a drizzle, and then
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maybe the general consciousness, you
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understand
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my love
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Even that currency rain or downpour
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which means it poured down on our heads,
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because most of this downpour was
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dispersed somewhere,
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it was dispersed. As an economist, why should we
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tell ourselves about what is happening with this
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currency, we do not become the
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beneficiaries of this currency downpour, this
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is firstly, and secondly, literally yesterday
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such a serious event took place
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in the world of finance; finally, the
00:04:21
federal budget of the Russian Federation
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for work for the next three years.
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We are asking that it
00:04:30
is still raining currency, and at the same time,
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our federal budget is reduced to a deficit equal to
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2 percent of the small domestic product,
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it means something is wrong In this
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kingdom Yes,
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due to lack of time, I can’t
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decipher what is there, in short,
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So the promised economic
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mobilization
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declared is promised as you wish, there are
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no signs of it yet, look, we have a
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gigantic asset owned by a
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non-resident, roughly speaking, strange
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investments means these foreign
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investors have blocked the work of their
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enterprises, at least large ones, so
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the question arises: What to do about it?
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Of course, nationalization should be carried out by
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the way. After all, I’m also drawing parallels here
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historically, the
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more terrible Bolsheviks say. And
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after October 25, 17,
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they carried out nationalization of all
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foreign enterprises of Soviet Russia,
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when I began to study this issue in more
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detail as Sorry, but the owners and
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managers of all these foreign companies,
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they just merged the country, the enterprises
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stopped, you know, there was no way
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out, there was no urgent need to
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carry it out
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legally, this is generally, in principle, a
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legal wire. Well, that is, this is the same after
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all, Someone else’s property is correct,
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that is, investors built the fruits of
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enterprises there and everything else. And we are simply
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nationalizing it,
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you understand that this is not just
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investors,
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you are forcing me, as it were,
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foreign investments have been accumulated in the
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Russian Federation, of course, the
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latest data is only as of January 1
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Central Bank I have now stopped
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publishing this information; the direct
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accumulated investments of non-residents amount to
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more than 600 billion dollars; I was deliberately
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not lazy; I calculated the
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geographical structure of more than 90
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percent of this investment from an unfriendly
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state. It would seem, Guys, this should be
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done, as they say, with a click. It’s
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already been almost 9 months with us
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Tribute would be no less than a crow Well, how is it
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in the West in this sense, everything is
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organized there, our assets are being frozen there,
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it’s all built on a
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planned basis Everything is being done,
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international coordination is underway, which means they are
00:07:08
looking for
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assets of Russian origin They are
00:07:12
keeping records of these frozen active ones,
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they are now underway active work on
00:07:17
the transfer of these assets and the frozen status
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here, I don’t see such work;
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maybe, of course, somewhere this work is being done
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there; I don’t know the
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classified top-secret work,
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but talking with some State
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Duma deputies and some officials, I
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begin to understand that such work is not
00:07:42
being carried out And no one even set goals and,
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accordingly, it turns out to be complete
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symmetry, culturally speaking,
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they deliver some blows And we only
00:07:54
threaten that we will respond with something. Well, for
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example, Dmitry Anatolyevich Medvedev in
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St. Petersburg wrote about the
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scandalous resolution of the General
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Assembly regarding the fact that they say we need
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frozen reserves of the Russian
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Federation in the amount of 300 billion to
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expropriate to use means
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slowly wrote exactly we have
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enough
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resources we probably have the assets of
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foreign investors to
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respond to this But so guys, we need
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the most serious work, painstaking work. I
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won’t say now how
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painstaking and complex it is. it should
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have started on February 24. Well, by the way, I’m
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talking about these frozen
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300 billion dollars that
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were from our
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stabilization fund, which I think is called, or
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whatever the
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Central Bank’s billions are, but the fact is that
00:08:57
central banks manage not only their
00:09:01
own foreign exchange reserves, which means The
00:09:05
Central Bank is like any credit
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organization and deposit accounts of the
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currency of the
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National
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Wealth Fund, it is deposited and
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in fact I even calculated
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now, I may be a little mistaken,
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a little less than 60 billion dollars,
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this is money It is the National Wealth Fund that is also
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frozen and in my opinion By the way, I slightly
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re-uploaded your questions on my
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feelings in the first quarter of next
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year there will be expropriation, a
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topic for a separate conversation Yes, I just
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what is the essence of my question that I wanted to
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ask you Why preparing for such an
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operation, so to speak, knowing what the
00:09:55
economic consequences would be Why was this
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money not withdrawn from foreign
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accounts
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Oh, you know I wrote several books
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still hot on the heels of 2014, when
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Crimea became part of the Russian Federation
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and when the first
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collective West against Russia began, I already
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realized then that we are being exposed here, we
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are simply being terribly exposed, that is, it is
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necessary to somehow convert these foreign exchange
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reserves Otherwise, it will simply
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expropriate, I then proposed that means
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converting the
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purchase of machinery and equipment, and for this it was
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necessary to develop the
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industrialization of the Russian Federation, I
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will not explain to you, you yourself feel
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that we have had complete
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industrialization in 30 years. But what if we
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don’t know
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what machines to buy or from us the
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entire import plan has already been completely fulfilled,
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even you buy gold, you buy gold
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because it is the most reliable asset.
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Here are my recommendations for 2014 2015
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Yes, unfortunately, such a thing But for sure,
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even not very professional
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economists should economists understand
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that the freezing of their enterprise will happen,
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so the question arises: This how to
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qualify from a legal point of view This
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is negligence This is evidence This is
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sabotage Well, in this case, I am not
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competent in these matters, but the signs of
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all this are observed
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[music]
00:11:57
Yes, thank you very much and Look, you
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just mentioned what would have been possible
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if not buying equipment
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could be invested in gold since it is
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one of the most stable currencies, so to speak,
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even about them, do
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you think that it is possible in the future
00:12:14
One of the most stable will be
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cryptocurrency no no cryptocurrency It is
00:12:20
already dying, this is a topic for a separate
00:12:23
conversation today, thank God many
00:12:25
fanatics cryptocurrencies are starting to
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see the light
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there, of course you know the options are such
00:12:33
compromises that they say it’s just a
00:12:35
cryptocurrency and the cryptocurrency is backed by,
00:12:39
say, gold. Well, I studied. So,
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some projects are such a backing for
00:12:44
cryptocurrency, you
00:12:49
begin to understand, it turns out that there is
00:12:52
no gold backing, they
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just collected the money and ran away.
00:12:58
So, but actually in fact, we are
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probably talking about a more serious alternative,
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and a more serious alternative is the
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digital money of central banks,
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by the way, when the central
00:13:13
banks already decided that they would
00:13:15
implement digital money projects, they
00:13:18
then finally decided on their positions
00:13:20
on cryptocurrencies, if before that they were
00:13:23
not yours not ours then here they clearly
00:13:27
said that cryptocurrencies are illegal,
00:13:30
well, as for digital central
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banks,
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but
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China has advanced the furthest,
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this thing started, for some
00:13:43
times they even kept this preparation secret.
00:13:46
Well, now the digital yuan is already
00:13:49
being tested there, it is already even partially
00:13:52
used, some said that they
00:13:55
say there is such a behind-the-scenes global
00:13:59
project that then all these digital currencies
00:14:02
will merge into a single world digital
00:14:05
currency, but taking into account the current, to put
00:14:10
it mildly, tense
00:14:12
American-Chinese relations, they understand
00:14:14
that the digital yuan will never be
00:14:17
converted from the
00:14:23
digital yuan.
00:14:27
once we were talking about gold,
00:14:29
but it is clear that the dollar, euro, and so on,
00:14:32
toxic currencies were frozen in
00:14:35
Russia today, someone else will be frozen tomorrow, they are
00:14:38
no longer shy, this is one reason
00:14:40
why now the
00:14:42
demand for gold is starting to grow, and the
00:14:46
second reason is that
00:14:48
the dollar itself it’s exhausted, and if
00:14:52
the dollar is out of the lungs, the
00:14:56
Japanese yen is not all exhausted That’s
00:14:59
because starting in 2008, and let me
00:15:04
remind you that 2008 is the apogee of the global
00:15:07
financial crisis, the leading Central
00:15:10
banks turned on their printing presses, they
00:15:12
turned on their printing presses, and that means the volume of
00:15:16
money supply in the world has increased Well,
00:15:20
by about one order of magnitude,
00:15:22
you yourself understand that this is a depreciation
00:15:26
of these very reserve currencies. Well, this
00:15:31
means that they were in the 2000s. And in the last
00:15:34
decade they even fought against
00:15:36
deflation. An interesting question arises: the
00:15:39
money supply is growing And they have deflation,
00:15:42
I ask
00:15:45
questions How you explain this phenomenon, it
00:15:48
contradicts the textbook, it’s
00:15:51
very simple,
00:15:53
all the inflation has flowed over, and now
00:15:56
these indices are inflation,
00:16:00
you understand, everything must be called by its proper
00:16:02
name, this is super inflation, hyper
00:16:04
inflation, but now stock
00:16:07
indices are starting to fall, some of the money
00:16:10
in general, and some are fleeing the stock markets in horror
00:16:13
on commodity markets on commodity
00:16:16
markets, this means that money becomes excessive
00:16:19
in relation to the mass of goods and
00:16:21
to blame it on Russia so that Russia is
00:16:24
to blame for such a global phenomenon as
00:16:27
inflation, which already has a 10
00:16:31
percent bar even in the countries of the collective
00:16:33
West, this is a painful headache,
00:16:42
in fact it is the result of
00:16:47
printing presses for about 2008, and
00:16:51
this also means that the
00:16:53
Federal Reserve system began to
00:16:56
sharply increase the key rate, now
00:16:58
it has almost reached the 4 percent level
00:17:02
4 percent almost from the zero level And
00:17:08
now 4 percent money is becoming
00:17:10
expensive expensive money is
00:17:13
additional Trigger for the start of
00:17:16
a recession and the signs of a recession are already obvious,
00:17:19
so naturally I couldn’t
00:17:22
figure it out. Why, let’s say Jerome Power,
00:17:25
the head of the Federal Reserve
00:17:27
System began to say that for us the
00:17:30
main priority is the fight against inflation.
00:17:32
Well, naturally, if the fight against
00:17:34
inflation really is necessary to raise the
00:17:36
key rate,
00:17:38
and the second beast is terrible. This is a recession.
00:17:42
speaks in Russian about the crisis, it is clear that the
00:17:46
crisis is much more serious. That is
00:17:48
why they focused on
00:17:52
inflation. Probably because
00:17:57
they were afraid that the elections on November 8 in the United
00:18:00
States would be strongly unfavorable for the
00:18:02
Democrats, because after all, the average person
00:18:05
perceives the
00:18:08
presidential administration and his
00:18:10
economic policy coming to store
00:18:13
and there in contact with prices This is such a
00:18:16
thing, but in general he should say
00:18:18
figuratively speaking What is happening today The
00:18:22
US Federal Federal system
00:18:24
has moved from
00:18:27
deep politics from rowan deep
00:18:30
politics this means an increase in the money supply
00:18:32
zero The key rate is hawkish
00:18:35
this means an increase in the key rate and
00:18:39
for this money it’s
00:18:42
impossible to explain rationally to the masses, that
00:18:45
is, they are accelerating the approach of their
00:18:46
end of the American dollar. America is
00:18:49
sitting, roughly speaking, on the Juice, which is
00:18:52
called the American dollar. So they
00:18:56
began in 2008 to actively
00:19:00
drink this soup, which means zeroing the
00:19:04
key rate and that means actively
00:19:07
increasing the money supply, and that’s when
00:19:10
at 9 10 they had already drank this soup, suddenly it
00:19:14
dawned on them that they could break off
00:19:16
and
00:19:18
impulsively, that means they
00:19:21
call it
00:19:23
control. That is, this is not control
00:19:26
that
00:19:31
they begin to turn off the reverse side
00:19:34
and in the opposite direction they had to
00:19:36
unscrew it somewhere 10 years ago At least
00:19:38
So that it doesn’t break off And now it’s too
00:19:41
late to drink Borzhom they said
00:19:44
[music]
00:19:50
please tell me now I
00:19:53
also had the same question when you
00:19:56
started talking about the fact that our reserve
00:19:58
currencies are already beginning to lose themselves, roughly speaking,
00:20:00
well, such as dollars and the pound
00:20:03
were listed among them here now to power
00:20:07
in Great Britain Well, that is, the
00:20:08
Prime Minister of Great Britain became the
00:20:09
economist 3 6 Suna, who, after
00:20:11
or passionately working on the economy, was
00:20:13
put in trouble in the hope that the
00:20:17
UK economy would still
00:20:19
recover. Do you think it will recover or
00:20:21
not?
00:20:22
I think that
00:20:26
you know it was when the British Empire
00:20:30
But if you look at the history of world
00:20:33
empires, they all had some kind of rise
00:20:41
exactly 75 years ago because in
00:20:46
1947 India was declared an
00:20:51
independent country by an
00:20:54
independent country and from that everything
00:20:56
went from there everything went like this that
00:21:01
she continued the weakening of the British Empire for 75 years.
00:21:04
Unfortunately, this means that most of this
00:21:07
weakening happened for a while, which means
00:21:09
the reign of the now recently deceased one was precisely that.
00:21:16
She had to withstand
00:21:19
all these loads,
00:21:20
you yourself understand that
00:21:25
there is no real successor to the throne, so you just somehow
00:21:28
know these are the symbolic signs,
00:21:31
this is a sign of the decline of Britain, so Well then, the
00:21:35
penultimate Question, recently
00:21:37
there was literally news that the bank
00:21:41
would quickly imitate about 900
00:21:43
billion rubles in order to cover,
00:21:46
so to speak, the territories that just
00:21:49
became part of the Russian Federation
00:21:51
so that the
00:21:52
ruble could circulate freely there, so to speak Do you think
00:21:55
this could hit the inflation of the
00:21:57
ruble itself,
00:21:58
he knows,
00:22:00
because it’s impossible to say so simply. You have to
00:22:03
understand what is happening with this mission,
00:22:06
you understand if this is an emission, an
00:22:09
organized video of the purchase of some kind of
00:22:12
toxic currency, we actually had a
00:22:15
Central Bank, it wasn’t even a
00:22:18
social Bank, it’s there was a currency
00:22:20
exchanger, that's what it's called in English,
00:22:23
that is, the rubles got rotated as
00:22:26
a result of the fact that
00:22:28
foreign currency This is of course a
00:22:33
very
00:22:35
[music]
00:22:36
unpleasant way of remission of a national
00:22:40
monetary unit, of course, all sorts of things are possible,
00:22:44
well, if these are loans
00:22:48
addressed to the Russian economy, this is
00:22:51
not an inflationary mission,
00:22:55
but
00:22:56
I on I I don’t know what method of this mission
00:23:01
will be, but I want to say that
00:23:04
I am now not very good news for you,
00:23:07
even this is not news. This is my
00:23:10
unpleasant forecast. We
00:23:13
have mentioned it several times, which means that the
00:23:15
freezing of foreign exchange reserves worth
00:23:20
billions of dollars is the
00:23:23
central bank
00:23:26
showing
00:23:28
its own that generally speaking,
00:23:30
what they say is a
00:23:32
normal rule:
00:23:37
if
00:23:39
next year,
00:23:41
my intuition tells me that next
00:23:44
year there may soon be a
00:23:47
confiscation of these 300 billion dollars from the
00:23:50
Central Bank, there will be nowhere to go,
00:23:52
he will be forced to write,
00:23:56
what is 300 billion, this means I
00:24:00
looked at the last balance on the account
00:24:02
of the Central Bank bank This is about a third of
00:24:04
all assets, that is, you understand, this is a
00:24:07
catastrophe. The Central Bank of the Russian
00:24:09
Federation will simply go bankrupt. No,
00:24:13
of course it can be saved, but you know
00:24:14
how much money is needed from the budget to
00:24:17
save the Central Bank recently
00:24:19
re-read 14 million rubles, half
00:24:22
to save the Central Bank, but the
00:24:26
Central Bank can Of course itself
00:24:29
to save myself I’m a little bit so here’s a special
00:24:31
area
00:24:33
they’ll come to repeat some banalities
00:24:35
I’d like to know
00:24:37
what the general public doesn’t know The general public with the help of a
00:24:40
printing press
00:24:42
can close it from there with the help of a printing
00:24:44
press and there were such precedents with different
00:24:48
central banks, but you understand
00:24:50
closing a hole in the amount of 14 trillion
00:24:54
rubles is there will be hyperinflation
00:24:57
hyperinflation
00:24:59
The Central Bank, which has been
00:25:02
singing a mantra to us since the end of 13 about the fact that it
00:25:05
targets inflation, it
00:25:08
will show us this kind of inflation, again, we
00:25:12
need to prepare for this event, we need to take some kind of
00:25:16
proactive measures, unfortunately I do
00:25:18
n’t see any signs of this feeling
00:25:21
that the Central Bank, by principle,
00:25:26
has done a lot of things in recent years, but
00:25:29
here I
00:25:30
am, it’s not just that I myself understand
00:25:33
that our topic for the outgoing year and the
00:25:36
previous year is one of such unpleasant
00:25:40
possible events: the formation of a
00:25:43
gigantic Hole in the assets of the Central
00:25:46
Bank with all the ensuing
00:25:48
consequences and the consequences that
00:25:50
will be felt by all Citizens of the Russian Federation
00:25:53
because even a non-economist understands
00:25:56
that inflation is a hidden taxation of
00:25:58
everyone without exception.
00:26:00
Well, you just moved smoothly to my
00:26:03
last question that I wanted to
00:26:05
ask you about the economic forecast for 2023, what
00:26:07
kind of awaits
00:26:09
specifically Russia, well, you’ve already mentioned a little
00:26:12
about the fact that maybe this
00:26:14
huge hole in the Central Bank of the Russian Federation is what awaits
00:26:17
Russia and, in principle, what should every
00:26:19
citizen of the country do to protect
00:26:22
their money from the same possible
00:26:24
inflation;
00:26:25
saving from crises alone is
00:26:29
extremely It’s difficult
00:26:30
Yes, that’s
00:26:35
how you need to be saved by a collective
00:26:38
society Yes, of course it’s ideal We’re used
00:26:41
to what it means There is a state, the
00:26:45
biggest society But now it
00:26:49
comes in times when you have to
00:26:51
think about local protection of local
00:26:54
protection family are friends are some kind of
00:27:00
informal association of people There are
00:27:04
even such
00:27:05
entrepreneurial associations,
00:27:07
economic associations on earth.
00:27:10
Here I just remember
00:27:12
in general in Soviet times there were many such
00:27:15
fashions of cures. We simply
00:27:18
said them out of frivolity but did not fully understand.
00:27:21
Now we are starting to not have 100
00:27:24
rubles and have friends, so as an option
00:27:27
others can help us say buy
00:27:32
yourself friends
00:27:35
gospel parable remember there
00:27:37
make friends like this, but
00:27:41
if we still talk about individual
00:27:44
protection, then it is clear that if there is an
00:27:48
unpleasant scenario with a
00:27:52
giant hole in the balance sheet of the Central
00:27:55
Bank, this is carefully expressed so as
00:27:57
not to frighten anyone too much, then of course there is
00:28:00
hope for the accumulation of rubles they may turn out to be
00:28:06
such ephemeral hopes. But it’s better to
00:28:10
talk about the accumulation of some
00:28:12
foreign currencies, this is also a complete
00:28:15
disadvantage, a complete disadvantage; of
00:28:19
all the money in the history of mankind, there was
00:28:23
only one money that could
00:28:25
survive any war and which
00:28:28
remained money in Africa,
00:28:30
this is gold like
00:28:33
that But thank God we have it somewhere A
00:28:38
few days after it started, the
00:28:40
Central Bank
00:28:42
adopted a positive method, not even the
00:28:45
Central Bank is
00:28:48
the State Duma, the Central Bank
00:28:51
simply agreed with this, they for a long
00:28:53
time, together with the Ministry of Finance, prevented the
00:28:56
abolition of VAT on transactions with monetary
00:29:00
gold for individuals, these were canceled
00:29:04
VAT and as a result, it means that now
00:29:07
people are quite actively
00:29:10
converting pieces of paper into
00:29:12
this very yellow metal, but such
00:29:15
thoughts are not systemic, but some
00:29:19
thoughts about how we can
00:29:22
survive next year.
00:29:24
So, in conclusion, then so that you
00:29:27
can wish all of our
00:29:29
viewers your viewers fans in
00:29:32
2023 I once read a very
00:29:35
wise prayer of the
00:29:37
Optina elders This prayer
00:29:41
can actually be
00:29:43
transformed at will into a toast into anything the
00:29:48
prayer means This is what it sounds like Lord give
00:29:52
me the strength to change what I can change
00:29:54
Lord give me patience to endure
00:29:58
what I cannot and God give me the mind
00:30:00
to respond to
00:30:03
our viewers the strength of patience and reason
00:30:07
our difficult time Yes Thank you I
00:30:09
also join the words of Valentin
00:30:11
Yuryevich and wish everyone a wonderful
00:30:14
good New Year so that it passes for
00:30:17
everyone on a positive wave that in the
00:30:19
end because This is the New Year New
00:30:21
Year is always gifts and we would like to
00:30:23
give you the same. This is a great gift we have
00:30:25
to choose from. You can take either
00:30:27
a mug or a cap, or we also have
00:30:31
two wonderful T-shirts in black and
00:30:34
purple for you to choose.
00:30:37
Well, probably T-shirt I a pragmatic person,
00:30:47
yes, black, excellent, great, then we will
00:30:50
definitely contact you after the broadcast
00:30:52
and find out the address where you will need to
00:30:54
send all this specifically Well, well
00:30:56
in conclusion Then thank you very much
00:30:58
for this very interesting in-depth
00:31:00
forecast and, in principle, a look at the
00:31:02
historical economic parallel here
00:31:04
we also wish you a pleasant and good
00:31:06
New Year and that everything is
00:31:09
just fine with you, but the most important thing is
00:31:10
that they always say this
00:31:14
Health Health to you your family your
00:31:16
loved ones and your friends in the New
00:31:19
Year 2023 Thank you for your attention
00:31:23
[music]

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