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Russian
00:00:00
greetings. I am Vasyl Golovanov. My00:00:02
interlocutor today is Oleksandr00:00:03
Musienko, head of the Oleksandra Center for00:00:06
Military and Legal Studies. to the00:00:20
forces of defense and air00:00:23
defense, as well as to those who restore00:00:26
energy supply, water supply,00:00:28
heat supply, internet, mobile00:00:31
communication in our homes to all those who on their front00:00:34
bring our victory closer and eternal memory to those00:00:37
who remained forever in this war,00:00:39
Oleksandr, I will start with official00:00:41
information about what happened00:00:43
today the spokesman of the Air Force, Yurii Hnat,00:00:45
said that at the moment there are data on more than00:00:48
60 missiles that flew over the territory of Ukraine,00:00:50
launched traditionally from Tu 95 aircraft, these are00:00:54
X or Kha-55 and Khas-101 missiles, and there are also00:00:58
launches of Black Sea calibers, we also have00:01:00
launches of C 300 is also the work of00:01:03
bombers here 22m3 who launch00:01:06
x-22 missiles also in the sky the00:01:08
presence of 31k hypothetical00:01:12
dagger bearers was noticed, the enemy wanted to massively focus00:01:15
the attention of the air defense and keep the air defenses under tension Su-00:01:18
35 planes also worked with x-59 missiles Oleksandr, as an00:01:22
assessment of today's attack, will you issue00:01:26
what00:01:27
or there could have been a00:01:30
more massive shelling. What might the00:01:34
enemy lack? Thank God, what are00:01:38
their reserves of missile potential and what can we00:01:41
expect in the future?00:01:53
calculations and see that the00:01:56
enemy cannot launch more than 100 rockets, that00:01:58
is, the maximum number of00:02:01
volleys. This is the traditional range.00:02:04
In principle, on average, it is 70,00:02:07
65, 80 rockets. This is about the amount if we00:02:10
give the calculations from this stage of00:02:13
missile terror, which began on00:02:15
October 10, active and massed That is, somewhere around00:02:19
these parameters, does00:02:22
this mean that the Russian military00:02:25
command and the aggressor would not want to00:02:27
launch more, no, I think they would like to00:02:29
launch more, at least they have the00:02:32
means for this, there is a missile carrier of the same00:02:35
aircraft, that is enough, unfortunately our00:02:38
enemy, however, does not have the ability to00:02:41
collect such a number of missiles in order to00:02:43
use them at once, and therefore they00:02:46
distribute somewhere on average it takes00:02:49
from 7 days to two weeks or so to00:02:53
collect such a00:02:55
number as we saw on the00:02:58
morning of December 16, somewhere approximately a00:03:03
week or two to say exactly how many rockets it is00:03:08
actually difficult to count00:03:11
quite often they are counted in percentages given00:03:13
because it is easier than in absolute numbers00:03:15
and what is happening, but the trends are00:03:18
noticeable, as a rule,00:03:21
husto1 and00:03:23
x-55 or h55 missiles are used,00:03:26
what is the difference H1 These are the ones that are produced on the00:03:29
territory of Russia, now the00:03:31
New York Times has statistics that00:03:33
about 40 of them are produced per month, well, there are00:03:36
different data there, from 30 to 40, New York there00:03:39
notes that they produce about 40, which is00:03:41
noticeably wobbly, our00:03:45
military established that Russia was already00:03:47
shelling the territory of Ukraine with these00:03:49
missiles that were produced this year ha 101,00:03:53
this means that this means that the stocks of these00:03:56
missiles are most likely exhausted, they are already00:03:59
working, not in fact, not in stockpiling, but00:04:02
immediately produced and for use, this is00:04:06
one indicator, and here it must be said that00:04:08
they are now producing them because that they00:04:10
accumulated quite a lot, in fact,00:04:13
while they were given the00:04:15
opportunity to do it before the sanctions, they00:04:17
bought a lot and saved it, and now they00:04:19
can00:04:21
produce it, and here is the question.00:04:24
They just need time to exhaust these00:04:26
components. I think the reserves are not bottomless.00:04:28
Hai 55 is that what remained from00:04:31
Soviet times, in particular, those missiles that00:04:33
were in Ukraine and transferred as a result of00:04:35
nuclear disarmament were in Russia, and there are00:04:39
noticeably fewer of various types against00:04:43
ships, x22x29 is used there,00:04:46
and there are very few calibers. Already compared to00:04:48
those periods, for example, a few months00:04:50
ago, that is, there are fewer missiles, but certain00:04:54
reserves are still preserved and there are still certain forces in00:04:58
Russia in order to carry out strikes on the00:05:01
territory of Ukraine, they are, in fact,00:05:03
to say how much, well, there are estimates from00:05:08
our authorities and from our intelligence that 3-4 to00:05:11
5 volleys can be as powerful as well. Well,00:05:14
how powerful in that regard how are they from00:05:18
70 there to 100 missiles, roughly so, some00:05:21
say less, some more, but for now00:05:24
we must say that the trends are such that the00:05:29
enemy will not stop this winter, they were able to00:05:31
arrange darkness, cold, hunger for us here,00:05:34
what they want and fight with the civilian00:05:36
population, unfortunately, stop00:05:38
they are not going to, you understand, now Russia00:05:42
feels this advantage they have00:05:44
in long-range weapons and is00:05:47
trying to use it as much as possible. Unfortunately, we00:05:49
cannot oppose them. There is nothing right now to00:05:51
strike somewhere, let's say, a00:05:54
thousand kilometers from our border00:05:57
deep into Russia, and they have the opportunity and00:05:59
they use it to say how00:06:02
effective it is, because the effectiveness is00:06:04
not just that the light does not go out, the00:06:07
effectiveness should be in the fact that00:06:10
it should affect the theater of war on the basis of the00:06:13
enemy's calculation, it does not affect00:06:15
today, it has no effect, but00:06:17
they they continue to do this, they continue to00:06:19
beat my single spirit, but this does not show00:06:23
that society is breaking down and that it00:06:26
leads to a change of mood and that it00:06:28
leads to some kind of reassessment. On the contrary,00:06:30
it causes anger. Anger at the enemy. Irritation,00:06:33
etc.00:06:37
and Valeriy00:06:39
Zaluzhny in an interview where the icons00:06:41
we will now talk about in more detail And I00:06:43
ask you now how far we00:06:47
can now hit without the atakams provided to us there00:06:50
Which can be 300 to00:06:53
700 km Now we are as far as we can be00:06:58
today and the possibility that00:07:00
we have and what we have in our arsenal are00:07:02
Point U missiles, known as the maximum00:07:05
range of 120 km, consists of00:07:07
modernized ones and the fact that we use00:07:12
Himers systems, their maximum range is about 80 km,00:07:16
in principle, this is the00:07:18
maximum theoretically Well, I am talking about00:07:22
what is known and the fact that it is at least00:07:24
in service, it is known that there are individual cases00:07:28
when we see explosions taking place00:07:31
somewhere or in the occupied Crimea or somewhere in the00:07:34
territory of Russia, and it is clear that the range, for00:07:37
example, with a junk, it is00:07:40
more than 80 km or more than 120 points00:07:44
o. That is it is there somewhere near00:07:46
Kherson to Dzhanko, about 150 kilometers,00:07:49
yes, in a straight line, and accordingly00:07:52
the question arises, how could it be hit, or was00:07:54
it sabotage, was it a hit, there is00:07:57
no answer to this, or could it be00:07:59
drones, or could it be00:08:02
missiles that in we are not publicized or00:08:05
reported, but from what is known, we00:08:08
only have kaimars systems, we have y-00:08:11
points, and we have an00:08:14
increased range now according to the missiles00:08:16
used by aviation. Well, for example,00:08:19
Brimstone missiles,00:08:22
Harm missiles, which are used to destroy00:08:24
radars and all00:08:28
gave us the opportunity to strike deep at a distance00:08:30
of 300-400,500 km, the one that would be00:08:33
known officially, it would be in00:08:35
service,00:08:37
unfortunately, we do not have such a weapon today, because it is necessary to00:08:41
understand that in order to destroy the cause of00:08:44
these attacks that Russia is making00:08:47
it is necessary to strike, to be able to00:08:49
strike their infrastructure, the00:08:52
military at the military airfield,00:08:54
the warehouses, destroy it00:08:57
almost before the start, then this is a00:08:59
pre-emptive strike, which gives the opportunity and00:09:01
forces the enemy to think the same way, to think00:09:03
about placement on new00:09:05
airfields, to change logistics,00:09:08
psychological pressure, oh Look00:09:10
how much psychological pressure works.00:09:13
attention, there were only three00:09:16
explosions of these at the Engels00:09:18
Yangeleva airfield and in Kursk,00:09:21
we are the military, the official version has not been announced,00:09:25
well, at least only from the Russian00:09:27
side.00:09:34
Swift drones00:09:37
Tu-141 were released from the territory of Ukraine,00:09:39
again, it is a matter of conjecture, but what00:09:43
happened after that, after that, there was00:09:47
the Attack of the Martyrs and on one of the checkers of the00:09:50
drones it was written that00:09:52
Dan was stabbed on the wing, it affected three cases, it is00:09:56
not 33, it is not 133, but it affects Therefore it00:09:59
works, that’s why we need such a weapon.00:10:03
And what about the Shehayds, by the way, before that we00:10:05
heard information that they have problems with00:10:07
working in sub-zero temperatures, but00:10:11
now they fly here with either a slight00:10:14
minus or zero. Did they adapt them or00:10:18
not? the problem with working with00:10:20
minus wanted, you know, as far as I00:10:24
know,00:10:27
drones that00:10:29
use electric motors work at minus temperatures because,00:10:32
of course, batteries, they can00:10:35
discharge faster, there are problems with00:10:38
their charging and so on and so on Shahid00:10:41
He uses an internal00:10:43
combustion engine, that is, he uses an engine00:10:46
gasoline, which does not00:10:49
affect temperature regimes at all, it can00:10:51
work, in principle, it does not matter to him whether it00:10:54
will be a plus or a minus, besides, if00:10:57
individual elements of00:10:59
electronics or other means00:11:04
did not work for Shahid or materials, then I think that they were00:11:07
most likely improved and00:11:09
modernized you understand the trick. But00:11:11
its peculiarity is that it00:11:14
is not really technologically complex and it is00:11:17
easy to use, but it is still00:11:21
powerful and capable of more than 50-75 kg of00:11:26
explosive parts that can cause00:11:28
destruction and as far as I know from my00:11:32
sources, the Russians and the Iranians worked for00:11:36
several weeks in order to00:11:37
modernize them and prepare them so that they could better00:11:40
pass our anti-aircraft00:11:43
defenses, but it’s okay to say whether they00:11:47
succeeded. No, because the statistics for00:11:51
their launches and for the downed Shaheds are00:11:53
about the same as they were, even slightly00:11:56
better00:11:57
the only success they had was that00:11:59
they got into the infrastructure objects in Odesa00:12:02
and there was, yes, they00:12:04
caused serious blackouts there and00:12:07
the accident was with water supplies further on in00:12:10
Kyiv, 100% knockdown in other regions.00:12:13
Therefore, so far it is00:12:15
not noticeable how much they00:12:18
improved them That this has some kind of fundamental00:12:21
fundamental change over what happened with,00:12:24
but it is necessary to understand that what is the danger of00:12:27
martyrs, they fly in a swarm, as a rule, and00:12:30
this level reaches or does it decenter to a certain goal, it becomes00:12:33
disoriented,00:12:36
it becomes disoriented somewhat, the means of00:12:37
air defense are such a calculation00:12:39
and the calculation of our nuclear forces is such that 10 that 9 will be shot00:12:43
down and one should hit and00:12:45
cause some kind of destruction, that's what00:12:47
they are aiming00:12:49
for preventive strikes, you said why we00:12:53
can't then, we don't have about it, we said we don't00:12:56
have such00:12:58
long-range weapons and why00:13:02
they won't give it to us What are they afraid of our00:13:06
Western partners because Well, really, if00:13:10
we had carried out pre-emptive strikes on the00:13:13
airfields of the same Belarus where the00:13:15
planes took off today, they probably also00:13:19
did it with more force, and Lukashenka would00:13:22
probably have additional reasons to00:13:26
deny Putin00:13:29
full-scale participation not only of the00:13:31
Belarusian army in the war, but and in order to00:13:34
provide my training grounds there,00:13:36
I absolutely agree with you.00:13:39
Pay attention, you mentioned the interview of the00:13:42
commander-in-chief of the Luzh newspaper for the00:13:44
economist in the list of weapons that he00:13:47
called necessary for deoccupation in the00:13:50
further territory in the south, not only00:13:52
were there no long-range missiles, he did not00:13:55
say a word about Atakamaz missiles, yes.00:13:57
Since we talked about them, we discussed the00:13:59
need for missiles for 300 km high-altitude missiles,00:14:02
and so on. And we will00:14:04
use them. He did not say, although00:14:08
knowing certain people, he is, in00:14:11
principle, a supporter of this00:14:14
technique when there was an opportunity to have00:14:16
long-range weapons applied to00:14:18
positions the enemy on his territory.00:14:20
At least he wrote about this with General00:14:23
Zabrodsky even earlier in an article for00:14:25
Ukrinform, they talked about it there. But00:14:28
he obviously does not mention it00:14:30
because he does not mention aviation and he00:14:33
emphasizes that I pay attention. I am not even00:14:35
talking about 1600:14:37
Perhaps it is not in vain either. Perhaps it is from the00:14:40
awareness of the possibilities of negotiations and00:14:44
capacities. And let's say that what00:14:47
our partners are now ready to provide. Perhaps he00:14:50
knows and understands what he is talking about now,00:14:53
that is, when he mentions tanks, when he00:14:56
mentions armored personnel carriers, when artillery is mentioned,00:14:59
in principle, there is an understanding of what obviously, no matter what,00:15:02
despite the obstacles, a certain00:15:04
number of them can be obtained. That is, it00:15:06
is not something impossible, but when it comes00:15:09
to long-range weapons and00:15:11
aviation, the question is removed, obviously there is an00:15:15
understanding that now our partners are00:15:17
not ready to provide us at this stage00:15:20
such weapons for various00:15:23
reasons, some have political ones, some have00:15:25
technical technological ones, some want00:15:27
to keep their weapons for themselves, that’s how the British, the00:15:30
British Minister of Defense announced a vote00:15:33
on what long-range missiles will be provided if00:15:35
Russia,00:15:36
too. By the way, it’s an interesting thing, you know, because00:15:39
when you hear the wording if Russia00:15:41
will continue its energy terror, this00:15:43
missile yes, well, I apologize, but now it00:15:47
was not enough to understand00:15:49
that ours is already underway and 40-50% have already been damaged00:15:54
, so according to what the00:15:57
Prime Minister of Ukraine is saying,00:15:59
maybe it was already needed00:16:01
would get these missiles, but they reached the00:16:04
practical level and said that maybe00:16:06
it is worth waiting because there are not so many of them in00:16:08
Britain itself, and some politically because they00:16:11
believe that strikes on the territory of Russia are an00:16:14
escalation that can lead to a nuclear00:16:16
confrontation, and they are talking about this openly,00:16:19
so obviously to date,00:16:21
the question of providing us with such missiles is00:16:24
not on the agenda of our partners00:16:26
and they focus on00:16:29
what can be obtained and what can be00:16:32
achieved.00:16:40
and satellite00:16:42
intelligence, which are extremely important, as00:16:44
well as00:16:47
about the hostage interview, Russia wants a pause00:16:50
in the fighting to gather resources for a new00:16:53
offensive in February, March, it may00:16:54
begin in the direction of Kyiv from Belarus or00:16:57
even from the south,00:16:59
the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny spoke about the economist in general,00:17:02
and someone saw in this00:17:05
interview, here is a message about the new new00:17:10
stages of escalation00:17:12
in the next year, and someone saw the message to the00:17:15
Western partners regarding assistance00:17:19
with weapons,00:17:20
you as a specialist analyzed this00:17:23
interview.00:17:30
the interview is exclusively aimed00:17:33
at the Western audience there, and accordingly00:17:36
it is directed, well, you have to understand that00:17:39
there are also intelligent people, including Mr.00:17:44
Zaluzhny.00:17:49
only00:17:51
there they will read only there and they won't00:17:53
read Ukrainians will of course because00:17:55
this is a primary issue that worries them so00:17:58
it's clear what I00:17:59
think I can say about00:18:02
the interview at first it seemed00:18:07
realistic to me it is realistic00:18:11
i.e. we see that the evaluation is going on the enemy is00:18:17
simply an assessment of its strength and capabilities without the00:18:19
SKA, we have overestimations and underestimations00:18:23
as it is as it is in reality, so00:18:25
they have bad command, they have a00:18:28
bad Surovikin school, but they00:18:31
will still continue to fight, such an00:18:33
assessment is the second way00:18:36
in principle predicting the plans that the00:18:39
enemy may have for the creation of00:18:42
strike groups, thirdly, we see that the00:18:45
evaluation of the Ukrainian forces is underway and, let's say,00:18:49
the general leads a reflection on00:18:52
what needs to be done.00:19:00
I saw the interview, do you even know such00:19:03
humanity or, let's say, a certain emotion,00:19:07
because there is an interesting moment when00:19:11
the portrait of General Vorobyov is on00:19:13
the wall and they ask Why here and he says I00:19:17
respect this person, then this is General Vorobyov,00:19:21
who was he in 2014 polished,00:19:24
then they returned him to his position, well, now it's not00:19:27
about him, but the teacher and it's respect, yes.00:19:30
That is, it's humanity that manifests itself,00:19:32
that is, there is a lot in this interview, I00:19:35
took it absolutely normal because00:19:39
we cannot understand We must have a00:19:43
real assessment and understand the level of threats00:19:46
which is to understand what we should prepare for.00:19:49
We should also not live exclusively with00:19:51
rose-colored glasses and exclusively in illusions00:19:54
that tomorrow everything will be a victory, we will00:19:56
get everything Everything will be fine and there will be no interruptions with00:20:00
light and everything will be restored and00:20:02
we will all return home and missile attacks00:20:05
it will not be and so on, I would like to, but the00:20:07
realities are actually Unfortunately, they are somewhat different00:20:10
and that is why I believe that it is absolutely correct00:20:14
that all this was said is possible for00:20:16
someone it has become a cold soul who00:20:19
relaxed and thought that the war is already00:20:21
far away and victory is very close and soon00:20:23
we will just Many times, and quite significant00:20:28
military specialists gave forecasts, and Mr.00:20:33
Budanov and others about the fact that the war may00:20:37
end in the summer of next year, that00:20:40
Crimea will be deoccupied, that Well, this is how00:20:44
it started with Kherson, remember the00:20:46
forecast of the same Budanov, who said that by the end of00:20:48
the month, Kherson would be occupied and then00:20:51
spring the summer of Crimea And00:20:54
we are00:20:56
the majority, yes. Probably those who want00:21:00
our Victory as soon as possible. I think00:21:04
everyone wants it, but there are experts who understand00:21:07
how it is. What way should it happen? Well,00:21:10
there are [00:21:11
music]00:21:12
all the others who just want00:21:16
our Victory for emotions without going there00:21:18
the details of the military affairs And now the00:21:21
majority is waiting for the promised Victory in00:21:25
the spring and summer, and you probably rightly00:21:28
said that the cold shower was the information00:21:30
from the zaluzhnogo that in the spring or at the end of00:21:33
winter at the beginning of00:21:35
2023 there may be another round of a powerful00:21:39
war of powerful escalation on the part of Russia,00:21:43
you know right there and also in fact and what00:21:50
the head of Budanov intelligence says and what00:21:52
the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces says,00:21:55
in fact, parallels can be found here,00:21:57
because if we talk about the end of00:22:00
the war in the summer, then in principle,00:22:04
before us now, we can00:22:06
go through a threatening period when there may be a00:22:09
wave of attacks after this attack of the enemy00:22:11
can be repelled and it will really be possible to00:22:14
reach a certain state when, well, call the00:22:17
unrest there final, but an00:22:19
armistice, the cessation of some hot phase of00:22:22
the war, that is, in fact, in fact, they00:22:25
absolutely intersect these lines00:22:28
here, the key thing is that the key thing is that the00:22:31
enemy is really in the spring can prepare00:22:34
strike groups, there are three directions. In my00:22:37
opinion, which is the most, Zaporizhia,00:22:39
Belarus and Belgorod Kursk00:22:42
region, which can be the most00:22:44
threatening from the point of view of formation, because of00:22:47
what is happening, so pay attention.00:22:50
Nobody says that all is lost, we give up00:22:53
and everything is going well absolutely00:22:55
clear understanding without hiding anything,00:22:59
Mr. Zaluzhny also says about Melitopol Well,00:23:03
let's understand perfectly who00:23:05
is talking there, don't tell the plans and so00:23:07
on. Well, it is impossible to make an attack in the Zaporozhye00:23:10
direction unnoticed by the enemy.00:23:12
Well, let's face it, you00:23:14
can't achieve it suddenly, anyway00:23:17
this is known and our enemy understands and we00:23:20
understand and our Western partners understand00:23:22
that Melitopol is the key to the deoccupation of the00:23:26
south, everyone understands this, but the important thing is the00:23:29
84 km that must be passed And the00:23:33
general also talks about them.00:23:38
Strong, powerful strikes are being made in the direction of Zaporizhzhia00:23:40
so that the00:23:42
enemy first moves beyond the range of the highmars,00:23:45
at least there he unloads and00:23:48
his logistics are there, so that he does not create a strike00:23:50
group and go from there to attack.00:23:52
That is, this plan of the enemy is also read as00:23:56
ours and they do not let him to create this,00:23:58
instead, to create prospects for us, the00:24:00
second is Belarus, where00:24:04
we know that the situation is difficult and that it undergoes quite a lot of00:24:06
manipulations in the cadets of various00:24:09
informational and psychological operations there, but00:24:10
this direction is not excluded so far,00:24:14
the situation there is as follows:00:24:16
Russian mobilized people are coming there. They have full00:24:19
access to Russian to the Belarusian00:24:21
training grounds, training takes place there and00:24:23
there are places of active00:24:25
hostilities in the east, but this trend00:24:28
may change, it may be with00:24:31
your permission, then I will tell you about00:24:34
Belarus in a little more detail, we will move on00:24:36
to this topic,00:24:37
Russian President Putin is expected to00:24:41
visit Minsk next Monday,00:24:43
December 19, reported the controlled00:24:45
Lukashenko's Telegram channel on the first floor,00:24:47
they plan to discuss the process of00:24:49
implementing previously approved alliance00:24:52
programs, in particular, trade and economic00:24:54
cooperation with joint projects with an emphasis00:24:56
on import substitution, cooperation in the00:24:58
energy sector and security issues, it is00:25:00
interesting here00:25:02
that Putin is going to Minsk, Lukashenko usually went00:25:07
to Moscow, Sochi, well, where00:25:09
they will call him there and he went here before that,00:25:12
he came to Puck00:25:14
on a return visit, and here you see00:25:17
Putin himself going to Minsk,00:25:20
what can this tell us about, is this a00:25:23
certain signal or is it just an ordinary trip00:25:25
and you don’t need to pay attention to it?00:25:28
Well, I don’t think so it's an ordinary trip, you00:25:30
know. I'm in such a coincidence. Circumstances,00:25:32
I don't believe such coincidences, when there is pressure00:25:34
from Belarus, when there are Russian00:25:37
troops there, and when apparently Putin00:25:41
wanted a greater involvement of the00:25:43
Belarusian army in this war, and Lukashenka,00:25:47
he is holding on to the position of, you know,00:25:50
probably Franziska Franco during the Second00:25:53
World War who, being in charge of00:25:56
affairs in Spain, were in fact00:25:59
participants of this coalition, and that is, he00:26:03
was actually an ally of Hitler's00:26:05
Germany, Spain was, but he did not00:26:07
send his troops, that is, he did not00:26:10
give orders that they took00:26:11
part in hostilities, and in principle, in the00:26:15
future, despite all00:26:16
let's say the fate of criticism and so on, it00:26:20
saved Spain and, in principle, it00:26:23
led to the fact that Spain00:26:25
joined NATO and became an ally of the00:26:28
necessary bloc, I won't say that00:26:30
Lukashenko wants to bring Belarus to00:26:32
NATO, of course, but I have to say that00:26:35
Lukashenko wants to remain Well, like, like, an00:26:39
ally to pretend00:26:41
that they are building and in front of the00:26:43
Kremlin to give everything that is necessary tanks00:26:46
to give the artillery to the Belarusian airfield00:26:49
to give the training grounds of the barracks of the00:26:52
Belarusian army to the use of the Russian troops to00:26:54
give everything but not to give the opportunity precisely for the00:26:58
entry of Belarus into this war and I00:27:03
think that before this he played this role a00:27:06
great00:27:07
operetta when it was00:27:10
mass Let's say it was like00:27:13
preparation, he took time because00:27:15
Belarus needs preparation, then create a00:27:18
new operational command, then00:27:20
introduce positions, then the reservists, some00:27:23
training, that is, he dragged on as much as he could, and it00:27:26
seems to me that at what stage00:27:28
simple reports were sent to00:27:30
those in the bunker everyone is getting it00:27:33
from there, yes, Putin has it on the receipts, yes,00:27:37
where he was told that the Belarusian troops00:27:39
had advanced, two brigades are getting ready, everything is getting00:27:42
ready, somewhere it was missed and00:27:45
somewhere they believed it.00:27:51
and I00:27:55
think that he still wants to put pressure on him00:27:57
personally so that00:28:01
Lukashenko is still preparing for the fact00:28:03
that the Belarusian army will have to enter the00:28:05
war another reason another reason for00:28:09
the visit Well, I just don't see going to Putin to00:28:13
negotiate about I don't know about00:28:16
supplies there some agricultural00:28:19
products, fertilizers, or something else, well, I00:28:23
mean, I don’t see any sense at all, it00:28:26
can be done in hryvnias, it’s obvious that00:28:30
he is doing this in order to send a00:28:34
signal to everyone. Putin is doing this about the fact that I00:28:37
will still put pressure on Lukashenka00:28:38
Of course, this also carries a00:28:43
powerful informational and psychological load, because even now we are discussing with you here,00:28:45
we understand the reason for the possible00:28:47
visit and are already starting to talk about it.00:29:00
what is the pressure and00:29:04
to hold this situation in general,00:29:07
in fact, he is also actually in a00:29:09
gripping situation, that is, he has nowhere to00:29:12
go, he is in the west, not to shake hands, the00:29:16
only person who was with him was a surgeon00:29:19
and there could say something about the institution, the surgeon is00:29:21
dead, well, the situation00:29:24
is difficult, so we will see but00:29:27
also the question of the combat readiness of the00:29:29
Belarusian card itself, this also00:29:32
arises here, I think that here, by the way, there are also00:29:34
analogies from the Second World War, you must00:29:37
have hope, you know, that the Belarusian00:29:40
army will become the army of Italy for the army of the00:29:44
Wehrmacht, because many officers of the00:29:47
Wehrmacht, and in particular Mensch Stein field00:29:51
marshal, they mentioned that the00:29:54
Italians fought badly or took00:29:57
positions and had a demoralizing00:30:00
effect on the army of the Third Reich. I have00:30:03
hope that the Belarusians will become the people00:30:05
who will influence the demoralization of the00:30:08
Russian army, it would probably be so And00:30:12
it happened because, well, that's how Russians die00:30:15
for the sake of their father Well, what about the Belarusians? In00:30:19
general, what is the point of being a foreigner? on00:30:35
all points00:30:37
from Putin, but on the other hand, it is still a00:30:40
Belarusian soldier who, under00:30:42
the command of the Supreme00:30:43
Commander of the illegitimate Eco,00:30:45
Ukraine did not recognize Lukashenko,00:30:48
anyway, Belarusian soldiers have not yet entered00:30:51
Ukrainian soil about the subjectivity of00:30:53
Lukashenko. I think00:30:56
Lukashenko himself is worried because not00:30:59
only are they worried and he is speaking out loud. This is00:31:01
his fresh statement. I can see that00:31:04
the situation is heating up now, especially00:31:06
after these large-scale negotiations. Everyone00:31:09
will say that everything is already in Belarus. There is00:31:11
no power here. The Russians are already walking around00:31:14
and ruling the countries. Once again, I want to00:31:16
emphasize these features. No one but00:31:19
us rules Belarus. these are our functions according to00:31:22
the constitution, and mine in particular, we00:31:24
implement these functions, end of quote, well,00:31:28
such a cry Well, not about help Well,00:31:33
I am the main one here without power, I would say so, this will be,00:31:37
well, on the one hand,00:31:40
we are treating it ironically, and on the other00:31:43
hand, will it still be00:31:44
able to press Putin to your00:31:46
opinion and find such00:31:49
compromising arguments or reasons almost00:31:53
to the destruction of Lukashenka himself in00:31:55
order to involve the Belarusian army in00:31:58
the war,00:31:59
you already know that as an excuse in advance00:32:01
on the part of Lukashenka that Putin has not yet00:32:04
arrived and he already means it00:32:06
this is actually a00:32:10
disease of many dictators when00:32:13
the situation worsens for them and they still00:32:16
think that they are still on Olympus and00:32:19
everything depends on them anyway and they start00:32:21
to prove that no, we don’t care anyway and we go00:32:24
on like this, someone out there is doing it because of state00:32:26
awards, stars, someone else, something And someone makes00:32:28
such statements, well, the situation is00:32:31
really complicated00:32:33
right now, at what point do I think that00:32:37
Putin will now use pressure and00:32:40
blackmail in any case, because it is00:32:45
not so important for Russia now. Maybe00:32:47
even in the long run and successful, what can this offensive00:32:51
be? how important is the00:32:53
continuation and spread of escalation, that is,00:32:55
they actually seek this, they are00:32:59
Putin's far-reaching plan, in addition to00:33:01
destroying Ukrainian statehood. He, after all, is00:33:04
self-recognition, and Lukashenko is one disease00:33:07
of a dictator, he now claims that I'm00:33:10
still in power, how do I rule there, don't00:33:12
listen to anyone And Putin I am big Russia is00:33:16
big with us they have to talk and talk00:33:18
and listen to our conditions and they don’t talk to them,00:33:21
well there excluding these00:33:23
calls there What does Chancellor00:33:26
Scholls or President Macron sometimes do but00:33:28
still doesn’t agree on anything And he00:33:30
needs this self-affirmation that’s why the spread00:33:33
of escalation, the possibility of escalation for00:33:36
Putin is one of the ways out of the situation, that is why00:33:39
they are so eager for it, and00:33:43
against this background, Lukashenka is of course important,00:33:45
but here Another question is to what extent the00:33:49
mood among the00:33:52
Belarusian military command today00:33:53
among Belarusian officers is such that they are00:33:59
practically ready to go to war and00:34:03
his life for incomprehensible goals and ideals,00:34:06
this is fundamentally possible Lukashenko But00:34:09
he knows more clearly about this00:34:12
state and understands what can happen, so that00:34:16
first of all they will not achieve anything and this is a collapse in the00:34:19
future, this is the collapse of Belarusian00:34:20
statehood, it may even be Or the second00:34:23
scenario, the00:34:24
army may simply not carry out the order and00:34:28
commit some kind of plot against00:34:31
Lukashenka himself, and here his00:34:32
instinct of self-preservation is activated. Perhaps he00:34:35
constantly convinces Putin of this and00:34:37
tells him about it, but it is still00:34:40
obvious and noticeable that after all00:34:43
Putin will press or he will press or he00:34:46
will find arguments in life and those keys to00:34:50
Lukashenka, who, despite the fact that he is a dictator00:34:52
and has done a lot of grief and evil, he is a person00:34:55
who has a political sense, what kind of person are you00:34:59
who can get out of any00:35:01
seemingly hopeless situation where00:35:03
another person lowered his hands and said00:35:06
do whatever you want, and he is like that, this00:35:09
vitality can't deny him this vitality,00:35:11
so we'll see the situation,00:35:13
in fact, in dynamics, the situation is interesting,00:35:15
you see, it's not for nothing that they call him a00:35:18
cockroach, not because of his elegant mustache, but because of00:35:21
such a living honor, because cockroaches don't get00:35:23
irritated. They usually00:35:26
don't get irritated. If it's not00:35:29
This is the way it is now that we see over00:35:32
time and the passage of time cockroaches,00:35:34
most of our houses are no longer there, someone says that00:35:37
there is a mobile connection,00:35:38
Internet providers, Wi-Fi, and so on.00:35:40
Alexander, before we00:35:43
thank you very much. I want to ask our viewers00:35:45
to take a look at the image of this video and find00:35:48
a link to Telegram Oleksandr Musienko00:35:51
Oleksandr what's his name Yes And he is00:35:53
Oleksandr Musienko as without various00:35:56
chips yes it's possible this is the future00:35:59
maybe it's for the future What's there00:36:02
What's there the viewer will find the reader00:36:04
will find the analytics I write spreads There00:36:08
is also the current situation, forecasts for the00:36:11
future, and of course anyone who will find it will find a00:36:13
link to this video, and if you don’t watch00:36:16
it here, you can watch it through the00:36:17
channel Thank you, so please subscribe00:36:20
to the Telegram channel, if you watch us00:36:23
on the news factory platform, please In00:36:25
the description, you will also find a link to00:36:27
my YouTube channel, please subscribe, click00:36:30
the bell, like this so that00:36:33
as many people as possible can see this video Oleksandr00:36:36
Thank you see you And thank you to our00:36:39
viewers Take care of your releases00:36:45
[music]Description:
Руководитель Центра военно-правовых исследований Александр Мусиенко в интервью Василию Голованову рассказал о количестве ракет, которые остались в РФ после атаки 16 декабря, обьяснил принцип работы иранских дронов «Шахидов», а также прокомментировал заявление главнокомандующего ВСУ Валерия Залужного о военной помощи Украине. Также эксперт поделился мыслями касательно поездки Путина в Минск. 00:00 Интервью Василия Голованова с Александром Мусиенко 00:42 Очередная массовая ракетная атака РФ: Украина сбила больше 60 целей 06:38 На сколько глубоко в тыл РФ может нанести ответный удар Украина? 10:06 Имеет ли Россия проблемы с запасом иранских боевых дронов «Шахидов»? 12:52 Почему Украине не дают дальнобойного оружия? 16:49 О чем говорил генерал Залужный в интервью изданию The Economist? 24:35 О чем говорит визит Путина в Минск? 30:30 Лукашенко переживает о своей субъектности 🔸 Подписывайтесь на канал Голованова - https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCl7KXisYHdJNK0kppWGGglA?sub_confirmation=1 📧 Для предложений сотрудничества: [email protected] 🔹 Facebook Василия Голованова - https://www.facebook.com/unsupportedbrowser 🔹 Instagram Василия Голованова - https://www.facebook.com/unsupportedbrowser
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