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Kryptos oder (Tech-)Aktien: Wer macht jetzt das Rennen und warum? - Sascha Huber

Kryptos oder (Tech-)Aktien: Wer macht jetzt das Rennen und warum? - Sascha Huber

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Volumen - ein unfairer Vorteil beim Trading? - Serdar Karaca

Volumen - ein unfairer Vorteil beim Trading? - Serdar Karaca

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Vom Einsteiger bis zum Profi: Drei funktionierende Investmentstrategien. - Urban Jäkle

Vom Einsteiger bis zum Profi: Drei funktionierende Investmentstrategien. - Urban Jäkle

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Rohstoffe feiern ihr Comeback

Rohstoffe feiern ihr Comeback

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Mario Lüddemann

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stocks will now explode. That's what we'll

00:00:04

look at in this video.

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We'll look at the following points. First,

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we'll look at the history of the

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Japanese stock market. Then

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we'll look at why

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Japanese stocks are now being looked at so excitedly

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Let's also look at the

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interest rate policy where there were recent positive

00:00:21

changes and then we were very excited.

00:00:24

Buffett

00:00:26

bought five Japanese stocks last year and there was

00:00:28

now an update in the

00:00:30

shareholder letter that Berkshire Haaway

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publishes annually so I have an

00:00:34

eye for it Thrown you in and

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we're looking at this update together today in this

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video

00:00:40

[music]

00:00:43

Yes, we made

00:00:46

a video about the Japanese

00:00:48

stock market at the beginning of the year and that was

00:00:49

really well received and that was

00:00:51

almost three months ago now

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and that's why I wanted to

00:00:57

record an update video on this topic because a lot has happened since then,

00:00:58

stocks have already

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developed, there have been changes in

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interest rate policy and also Buffett gave an

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update on his five

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stock positions, that's why I thought

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it was It's time again now after three

00:01:10

months that we

00:01:12

take a look at the Japanese stock market and how

00:01:14

it has developed, but I would like to start

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with the history of the

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Japanese stock market because that

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is very important in order to understand the market

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and why it is now

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became so attractive because

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the history of the Japanese

00:01:28

stock market laid a bit of the

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foundation for today's growth.

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Between 1985 and 1990 there was

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a bubble on the Japanese stock market, why

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was that? The Japanese

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stock market was really very,

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very attractive for foreign

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investors back then Because there

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were political favors that was very good for

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companies,

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that is, laws were simply

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dismissed and a good

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framework was created in which companies

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could grow quickly. In addition,

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the key interest rates were massively reduced at the time,

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which in itself was good for them

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the stock market and also for

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stock valuations because then there

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is simply more money in circulation and that was

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particularly impressive back then because

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interest rates in Japan were falling and last but

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not least, the stocks as a whole were

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weak because there were already a lot of

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high-tech companies there at the time which

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were already very, very profitable

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and all of these reasons actually

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led to the fact that in these 5

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years between 1985 and 1990 the

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valuations on the Japanese stock market

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rose very sharply, and

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the yen also

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appreciated, which was good for foreign

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investors It

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's still positive if you're invested in Japanese

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stocks, so it

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really was a real boom phase.

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You can compare it a bit with

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the current AI boom that we're

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having, so you can see how quickly

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this AI develops - Stocks develop and that's

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pretty much how you can

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imagine it back then in the Japanese

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stock market, I'll show you

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again in the chart just to

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illustrate how well

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the stocks did there in 1990

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when we were like that When the bubble formation

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peaked, the

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market capitalization of Japanese

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companies was three times as high as that of

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all US companies combined and that

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is obviously enormous because the USA was

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already the larger

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economy back then and the stocks were then

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weighted three times as much

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are valued like all US companies

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put together, which shows that it

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was really a big bubble back then. Let's look at it again using

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the

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example of

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225, which rose over 250% in these 5 years,

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what then happened to

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this bubble formation To cool things down,

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the key interest rates were then raised. That was

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actually the goal. They just wanted

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to cool it down a bit, but this

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increase in key interest rates

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actually led to the bubble

00:03:50

actually bursting, which resulted in

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stocks and real

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estate depreciating massively

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and that too Let's now take a look at

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Nick 225 because it was going fast.

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We've just

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shown you that, but then in 1990, as I

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said, the bubble burst

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and that had really serious

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consequences because the stock market was then in

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a period of 22 years ago

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and at the low it really

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fell over 81% so it was really a really

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big drawdown that we had there and

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what's so special about it now?

00:04:24

Normally you always have

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maybe a normal drawdown on the

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stock market between 5 and 10 years It

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would really be a

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long one, there are often some

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crashes like Corona, which are

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no longer an issue after a few months,

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but this is

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really special now, so that it does

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n't happen that often on the stock market, that

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we really have one here Yes,

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I'll show you the drawdown again later in the chart for over 22 years or even longer,

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but it was

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n't just the stock market that was

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affected, the gross domestic product

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of the Japanese economy could

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n't really be increased since 1990, but

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you can see one here between 1980

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and 1990 the

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gross domestic product really rose very quickly,

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then it fell for a while, then

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it

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rose again and then

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came back again, so we are

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actually in a

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sideways movement, we see

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the estimates for that here too The year 2027 is looking

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a little more positive again,

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so it is assumed that the

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Japanese economy will grow again,

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which is also a reason why

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the Japanese stock market is now getting

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better again, but also that we

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still haven't reached the level

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of that Year 1990 what are

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the reasons for this after the crash,

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as I said,

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the key interest rates were raised again because there was

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a bubble forming, which

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then led to the bubble

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bursting, then the Japanese

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government wanted to counteract it again and did

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so Key interest rates were then

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reduced to negative territory, which in turn

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meant that debt has

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obviously become very cheap and

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Japan has also taken on a lot of debt,

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which means that Japan currently has a

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debt ratio of around

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260%. Just to be able to classify this,

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that is really a high

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national debt ratio. Lebanon is

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even more indebted at

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283%, Japan is in second place with 260

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and now here, for example, Greece, you

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also know that Greece is also highly

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indebted at around 180% but there

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You can just see the relationship

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Japan is already really

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heavily indebted, so you should

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definitely keep that in mind

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if you are considering

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perhaps making an investment

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in the market. What are the

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reasons why the economy is no

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longer has really grown, um Japan

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has really

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had major deflation problems for several decades,

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here's a graphic showing everything

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that I see here under this, um, slightly

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thicker black line

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means that we were in deflation

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at that point in time, um

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means that the money has appreciated

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Unlike inflation, as

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we recently knew here in Europe

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and also in Germany,

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we always had

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inflation, meaning our money was

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worth less, here it was different, the money

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appreciated. That sounds positive at first

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Economics,

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but

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why is

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n't it so positive? First of all, because it's

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very, very difficult to combat deflation as an economy as a central bank

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because what means do you have to

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combat deflation? You can, for example,

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increase the money supply and also lower interest rates

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But you don't have that

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much freedom, so once the interest rates

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are below zero, you ca

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n't just set them at -5

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or -6%, that just does

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n't work either, so at some point

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this framework is played out when you're

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in... Once you have reached negative territory, you have

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already

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used up your powder a bit as a central bank and

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then it is very, very difficult to

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bring further stimulant factors into the market that just ensure

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that a bit of

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economic growth occurs again. Japan has

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tried to use debt, however As

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we have seen, that actually did

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n't work, so we have very

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high debt ratios of 260% of

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gross domestic product, nevertheless

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we had deflation for several decades.

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What is a problem with

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deflation? Consumers postpone important

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investments or purchases into the

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future when I know I'm getting into it

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3 years more for my money

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then the consideration is whether I

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should buy my car this year or only

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in 3 to 5 years because then I

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can simply buy the car for a lot cheaper. That's obviously bad for

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the economy and what's more It's

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also a problem, this combination

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if you're heavily indebted and then you

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also have deflation, which

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actually means that you get

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even more indebted every year due to

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deflation, and vice versa with

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inflation, if you're highly indebted then

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you even want one certain

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inflation because the bit contributes to the

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debt relief because the money

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becomes less valuable, which means the

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mountain of debt also becomes less worth WT with

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deflation it is different because

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the mountain of debt gets higher and higher in terms of

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valuation. This is also a very

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dangerous combination if you are heavily

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indebted and then there is deflation

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and the whole thing then leads to a

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certain

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downward spiral because the citizens

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know, okay, everything will be worth less,

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so if I want to buy a house,

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if I want to buy a car, then

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I'd rather wait a little longer

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Investing my money obviously means

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that less is bought,

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but that in turn also means that

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companies can employ less, which means that

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wages often don't

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develop positively and that's very

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exciting now, I'll get into it later

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Something is happening in the Japanese market at the moment because, as I said,

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nothing has happened on the wage market for several decades.

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Now it is actually the case that

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wages are finally

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developing in the right direction again,

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which means that wages are finally rising

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again Because of Corona, we had

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sustained inflation again.

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I marked it here in red. We

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are now in this range of 2

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to 3% of inflation and it also looks as

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if this

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is actually sustained inflation. As

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you can see This is where we had

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inflation at times, that

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was

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around 2008 and 2009, that was only for a very short time, then in

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2015 we were briefly in

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inflation but then quickly

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slipped back into deflation in 2020. They

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had them anyway The world

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is almost everywhere in the world,

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we were experiencing major inflation at

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the time, including the Japanese market, and

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as I said, it's really exciting now that it's

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finally finally a

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sustainable inflation, we're taking a look at it

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again here I just

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mentioned that wages are

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actually rising again, you can see that here in

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this graphic. In 1998, we still had

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a wage increase, then you can see that

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we really fell at first,

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so we had rather negative

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wage developments in 2010,

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we then had a real one

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Increase but we only

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got above the zero line for a short time and now

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we have seen it like this since 2020 and since

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Corona we have once again had

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a very, very positive

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development and we are now at around a

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wage increase rate of 1.8%

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compared to the previous year, which is

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really solid and it also looks

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like the trend will continue in the future.

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What also

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confirms that inflation

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could actually be sustainable is that the

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Japanese central bank has also ended the period of

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negative interest rates, so we We

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actually had the first

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interest rate increase in over 17 years, which is

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of course enormous, so there has

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n't been an increase in interest rates for 17 years.

00:11:41

What's happened now? The interest rates have been

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raised minimally, so

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the interest rates have now been raised to a positive interest rate of 0 to 0.1% Of course,

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that's

00:11:52

still not a big interest rate, but it

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definitely has a symbolic effect

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because, as I said, that's a

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long period of time where that didn't exist -

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17 years - so it definitely has

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a symbolic effect that that too

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The central bank is convinced

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that the era of

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deflation has finally been left behind

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and that the economy

00:12:11

can finally develop positively again and,

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of course, that's nice too. Japan is

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heavily indebted if we now

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have an inflation rate that is somehow at

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2 to 3%. or maybe it's

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higher, then that's obviously positive at first,

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because then the

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debt relief takes place more quickly. What kind of

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framework does the

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Japanese central bank have now? I

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read a few expert opinions about how high you can get with the interest rates

00:12:35

Theoretically, in

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a range of around 2.5 to 3%,

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you can probably still raise interest rates

00:12:41

without the interest payments becoming too high

00:12:43

in relation to the gross

00:12:45

domestic product, so we'll have to

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wait and see because

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inflation wouldn't be too high It's good

00:12:51

because it's difficult for Japan to counteract this

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because, as I

00:12:55

said, they can only increase interest rates to 2.5 to 3%.

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They have so much

00:12:59

debt and if interest rates

00:13:00

rise so quickly then

00:13:02

the interest burden for the country will simply increase high, so

00:13:04

that's actually a risk that

00:13:06

Japan has very, very high levels

00:13:08

of debt, you have to

00:13:09

keep an eye on whether inflation is

00:13:11

still developing very, very quickly,

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then it could

00:13:15

clearly tip over quickly, but at the moment it looks like it

00:13:17

is First of all,

00:13:18

a further change is to be assessed very, very positively,

00:13:20

which now relates more to

00:13:22

the stock market, which was actually

00:13:25

made at the Tokyo Stock Exchange and

00:13:29

why was a reform

00:13:31

made now? Yes, the Japanese stock market

00:13:33

had, as we have also seen,

00:13:35

we had Since I actually

00:13:36

showed it in the Nikai, there was a large

00:13:38

drawdown of 80% over several

00:13:40

decades, which in turn

00:13:43

meant that the companies were

00:13:45

valued very, very cheaply, which means we

00:13:48

had a lot of companies that were really

00:13:49

undervalued on the Japanese

00:13:51

stock market Then

00:13:54

measures were now decided on how to combat the whole thing.

00:13:59

Very few Japanese

00:14:01

companies had an investor relations department,

00:14:06

which means that

00:14:08

most companies that are listed on the stock exchange have

00:14:10

employees who

00:14:12

are there specifically for

00:14:13

communication between the big banks,

00:14:15

the institutional investors and the

00:14:17

companies that mediate because many

00:14:19

Japanese companies did

00:14:20

not have this position filled in the

00:14:22

companies. This has now

00:14:23

become mandatory, so the companies

00:14:25

now have to have such employees in the

00:14:27

company and that has

00:14:29

actually had positive effects In

00:14:31

fact,

00:14:33

many investors from the USA and

00:14:36

Europe have now jumped onto the Japanese market again.

00:14:41

There are also

00:14:44

various ways in which you

00:14:47

can ensure that stocks are excited again

00:14:49

because the stock market is actually

00:14:52

really undervalued. I have

00:14:54

a graphic here Once we've brought it with us, let's take a look

00:14:56

at it. Japan is actually

00:14:58

valued favorably, as of

00:15:00

December

00:15:02

2022. At this point in time,

00:15:04

43% of the shares listed on the

00:15:08

stock exchange there were actually on the Topic

00:15:09

500 with a price book value ratio of less than

00:15:13

one, which is really very very Let's

00:15:15

take a look at the S&P 500, which

00:15:17

was only the case in 5% of the companies,

00:15:19

so here's just the

00:15:21

ratio. I'll now go back

00:15:23

to the direct comparison of the S&P

00:15:25

500 and the MSCI Japan,

00:15:28

which I have here

00:15:30

I've picked out different etfson isares, which is always very

00:15:32

exciting. Isares always states for

00:15:34

the ETFs what

00:15:36

the price-to-earnings ratio is

00:15:40

on average for all the companies that are included in this ETF and

00:15:44

we also have a current price for the price-to-earnings ratio in the S&P 500

00:15:45

Book value ratio of 4.44 and a

00:15:48

price-earnings ratio of

00:15:50

26.21 Now very exciting, what does it look like

00:15:53

at MSC Japan? We have a price-

00:15:56

to-book value ratio of

00:15:57

1.59, which is significantly lower

00:16:00

compared to 4.44 and a

00:16:02

price-earnings ratio of 17.34, too

00:16:05

is significantly cheaper, um, than in the S&P

00:16:08

500, as I said, we were at

00:16:11

26.21, which means even though the Japanese

00:16:15

stock market, I'm already anticipating

00:16:16

a bit,

00:16:18

has actually developed very positively in

00:16:19

the last few months, we've still been

00:16:21

valued cheaply and the Japanese

00:16:24

stock market still has room to

00:16:26

continue to develop positively, then the

00:16:29

measures and reform that

00:16:31

were decided on actually

00:16:33

mean that all companies whose price-to-book

00:16:35

value ratio is below one

00:16:40

have to present a concrete plan on how they want to solve this problem

00:16:42

How do you

00:16:43

want to increase market capitalization? What are the

00:16:45

possible tools that

00:16:47

companies can use? You can, for

00:16:49

example, increase dividends because that of course

00:16:51

attracts investors who

00:16:56

value high dividend rates. You can, for example,

00:16:59

start share buyback programs, which means

00:17:01

you simply reduce the shares that can

00:17:03

be traded on the stock exchange

00:17:06

also means that it is positive for the

00:17:09

stock market valuation. You can also

00:17:11

see, for example, that the management

00:17:13

is remunerated in blocks of shares, which is

00:17:15

very typical in the USA, for example, in Japan, that does

00:17:17

n't mean that it's

00:17:19

just a normal one Wages

00:17:21

are due to be paid but that, for example, the bonus

00:17:23

is paid in blocks of shares

00:17:25

and then the management obviously has

00:17:27

a certain interest in it

00:17:29

if you are paid in shares

00:17:31

that the share prices

00:17:33

develop positively and then I have an important point

00:17:35

I mentioned that you

00:17:36

simply maintain better relationships with

00:17:38

institutional investors.

00:17:40

Let's take a look at what has

00:17:42

happened so far. I

00:17:49

looked up the dividend yield plus share buyback yield from MS Japan and we can see that the whole thing is

00:17:52

really developing very

00:17:53

positively again We really see

00:17:55

an intact upward trend now, which means

00:17:57

we are now back at a

00:17:58

return of over 3% and that

00:18:01

is once again competitive with the

00:18:02

international stock market and if

00:18:05

the trend continues to be soft then

00:18:07

that is still a good

00:18:09

sign I also believe that the

00:18:10

stock market still has potential,

00:18:12

that this dividend yield plus

00:18:14

share buyback yield can still

00:18:16

continue to rise, so now let's take a

00:18:18

quick look at the chart

00:18:20

of the niikai 225 and see what has

00:18:23

happened since the turn of the year,

00:18:25

so here Have you shown the chart from

00:18:27

January 1st,

00:18:29

2024 to the deadline today,

00:18:33

March 28th, and since then

00:18:36

the stock market in Japan has developed very well,

00:18:39

it is now up

00:18:40

22% since the beginning of the year and

00:18:44

let's take a look at the long term,

00:18:46

I have a screenshot for this

00:18:48

brought from the monthly chart we

00:18:50

had the old all-time high in 1990

00:18:54

and it has now taken about 33 years

00:18:57

until we have generated a new old-time high

00:18:59

but you can see it has

00:19:00

happened now I have put this green line

00:19:02

over here that marks the old

00:19:03

all-time high and you You see, last

00:19:06

month we actually generated

00:19:08

a new all-time high in the Japanese

00:19:10

stock market for the first time and that is

00:19:12

obviously very, very positive, but you can

00:19:15

also see that

00:19:20

the Japanese stock market has a really long time window of 33 years.

00:19:22

You already have it Yes, we've seen

00:19:24

a bit of momentum in the last few years, and

00:19:26

it picked up a lot of momentum from the summer of 2023 onwards.

00:19:29

A lot

00:19:31

of institutional investors

00:19:33

became aware of the

00:19:40

Japanese market one of the

00:19:42

most popular bets among

00:19:44

institutional investors, which you can see

00:19:46

here, long Japan equities means that

00:19:49

these, so here the

00:19:50

institutional investors were surveyed, the

00:19:52

fong managers and that was one of the

00:19:54

most popular bets that the fund managers

00:19:56

made at that time

00:19:59

and not only some fong managers

00:20:02

were there too real investors legends

00:20:04

there you've already seen it in the title

00:20:05

also ran Buffett actually

00:20:11

accessed five Japanese companies in the spring to summer months - we don't know for sure -

00:20:15

these were the companies itohu marubeni

00:20:18

Mitsubishi Corporation mitsi and Co and

00:20:21

Sumitomo and the latest status which we

00:20:24

also communicated in the last video

00:20:27

was that he had bought 8.5% of the

00:20:29

company shares and there was

00:20:31

now another update in the

00:20:33

shareholder letter from Berkshire Haaway, so

00:20:36

I took a look and

00:20:37

summarized the whole thing here

00:20:39

translated into German and he

00:20:42

actually commented quite positively on it again.

00:20:43

He also said that he

00:20:45

always said in an interview that he was proud

00:20:47

that he owned these Japanese

00:20:48

companies and Berkshire Haaway

00:20:51

has since then expanded the position

00:20:52

slightly from 8.5% now to about

00:20:57

9%. But he also said that he has

00:21:00

assured the Japanese companies

00:21:03

that he will not expand the

00:21:04

position sizes much further, he

00:21:07

will set a cut,

00:21:08

so the maximum

00:21:11

position size will probably be 9.9% of

00:21:14

the equity shares It's

00:21:17

also exciting, he also

00:21:20

made available how well

00:21:22

these

00:21:25

Japanese stocks have

00:21:27

developed since he invested there and

00:21:29

once he benefited from the

00:21:33

development of the currency pair, so he

00:21:35

benefited from the yen and then

00:21:37

also from the share price

00:21:39

development, which meant that he

00:21:41

really achieved

00:21:43

a very nice

00:21:44

return of

00:21:46

61% in a short period of time with the investment. In dollar terms, that's about

00:21:50

$8 billion that he has earned since the summer

00:21:52

with these five stocks

00:21:55

We'll now look at the five stocks

00:21:57

again in the chart. I've

00:22:00

just called up the five stocks on

00:22:02

tradingvw. The first stock

00:22:04

we're looking at is the Etoo

00:22:07

Corporation and here too we can see the

00:22:09

stock has developed very, very positively

00:22:10

As I said, we don't know

00:22:12

exactly when Buffett

00:22:14

actually opened his first position here,

00:22:15

the guess is

00:22:17

actually somewhere in the spring to

00:22:19

the summer months, let's just say

00:22:21

that he somehow opened his position here in June

00:22:25

Roughly measured here, since

00:22:27

then it has already been up 75% with this share

00:22:30

and let's also look at what has

00:22:32

happened in this share since the beginning of the year.

00:22:34

Since January 4th alone,

00:22:38

this share has risen by 12%,

00:22:42

so that was an investment

00:22:44

that I have definitely paid out,

00:22:46

let's look at the second share, that

00:22:48

's Maru Beni, let's take a look here

00:22:51

again since the beginning of the year because I've

00:22:53

already called up the share has

00:23:02

risen by 16% since March 20th, yes in 3 months that's really

00:23:03

very very strong I zoom

00:23:06

out a little bit here again and we can see that even

00:23:07

if he accessed this in the summer months

00:23:09

then he definitely improved his

00:23:11

return significantly again

00:23:12

so as I said we do

00:23:15

n't know exactly when we say just

00:23:16

somehow he got

00:23:18

in here then he's alone with

00:23:20

this position somewhere

00:23:22

between 20 and 30% up

00:23:27

mitsubiship

00:23:29

again a similar picture has

00:23:31

also developed very very positively I

00:23:33

'll take this rough

00:23:34

time window again in June somehow Months like

00:23:38

81% in the plus and since

00:23:41

the beginning of the year alone we'll take a look at it

00:23:43

again with this position 50%

00:23:47

in the plus since the beginning of the year that's

00:23:49

really, of course,

00:23:52

extremely strong then the next company

00:23:54

with Zoi and

00:23:56

Co. Here we had it again like

00:23:59

everyone else Shares have actually had a nice

00:24:00

development since the turn of the year alone,

00:24:03

32% return here with this share. Let's zoom out

00:24:07

a little bit

00:24:08

back into the summer months and here

00:24:10

we can see again that he was

00:24:12

apparently able to significantly improve his return

00:24:14

otherwise it would

00:24:16

n't be possible on this as it was said 63%

00:24:19

return came with his position right

00:24:21

here we come to

00:24:23

50%. and then the fifth

00:24:25

company sumitomu here too, of course,

00:24:28

again a similar picture has

00:24:30

developed very, very well, the share has been up around

00:24:32

30%

00:24:35

since the beginning of the year

00:24:39

alone since he got involved here, also 18%. and the exciting thing is that

00:24:44

we have now recorded this video at the

00:24:46

turn of the year - the first

00:24:47

video on the Japanese stock market - and

00:24:50

we can also take a look at

00:24:52

how the nikai has developed since then, so let's take a look at

00:24:56

the nikai 225 index since

00:24:59

the turn of the year You can

00:25:00

also implement this with ETFs. We are

00:25:03

already in the black with our first positions

00:25:07

because the nikai alone has risen by 21% since

00:25:10

the beginning of the year, so this is also

00:25:12

a very, very positive development. Feel

00:25:14

free to write it down in the

00:25:15

comments if you are there Do you

00:25:18

already invest in Japan or do

00:25:20

you see that or do you want to

00:25:23

invest in Japan in the future? How would you like to

00:25:24

implement the whole thing? If you

00:25:26

find it exciting, you can do it with an

00:25:27

ETF or with individual stocks and then feel

00:25:29

free to write down what you're interested in

00:25:31

Stocks do you implement this, are these

00:25:32

the five stocks that Rowan Buffett

00:25:34

has in his portfolio or do you have

00:25:36

other Japanese stocks that

00:25:38

are currently on your watch list or

00:25:39

that perhaps already have in your portfolio?

00:25:41

That would be super exciting if you did

00:25:43

that us and also for the

00:25:44

community for our viewers here in

00:25:46

the comments so that we can

00:25:48

perhaps take a look at these companies again.

00:25:50

Please also write

00:25:52

in the comments whether you would like to have an update on the

00:25:54

Japanese market in the future if

00:25:56

something changes

00:25:58

We're welcome to do that

00:26:00

because for me there was just the

00:26:01

reason, as I said, there was something in the

00:26:03

interest rate policy that finally

00:26:04

changed and also the shareholder

00:26:07

letter from Ran Buffett, that's why I

00:26:09

thought I'd include this update here

00:26:11

if you'd like If you liked the video,

00:26:12

please make sure you subscribe

00:26:14

to this channel. I have

00:26:17

actually seen that many of the

00:26:19

viewers who

00:26:20

regularly watch the videos

00:26:22

have not yet subscribed to the channel, so

00:26:25

I would ask you if you

00:26:26

already have two here If you've seen three videos on

00:26:27

our channel and you

00:26:29

also see added value in these videos,

00:26:31

then I would like to

00:26:32

call on you to subscribe to the channel for free

00:26:34

and also like

00:26:36

this video. I would

00:26:38

say we'll see you in the next video.

00:26:49

Bye

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