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Video tags
Subtitles
Russian
00:00:00
in Russia they want to return irrevocable00:00:03
savings certificates what does this00:00:05
mean because I, as a person00:00:07
who doesn’t understand and probably the audience does00:00:10
n’t understand either This is bad This is good00:00:13
for Russians Well, the main task of00:00:17
the government now is to get money and00:00:19
get it in the form of some long-term00:00:23
instruments which, so to speak, as they00:00:24
say, the population cannot00:00:26
take it back at any time, so the first00:00:28
option is irrevocable00:00:31
savings certificates. That is, it’s00:00:32
practically Well, the same as a deposit,00:00:35
but only for a few years. And you don’t00:00:37
have the right to withdraw this money back,00:00:39
but they offer you increased income00:00:42
and it seems that it would be beneficial for you. The second idea of00:00:44
the government is exactly the same kind, this00:00:46
means the launch of a voluntary00:00:49
pension insurance system. That is, you00:00:51
open a savings account in this00:00:54
non-state pension fund and that00:00:56
means after 15 years you begin00:00:58
to receive an increase in your pension so that you are not00:01:00
so poor, but 15 years, you00:01:03
can’t really take out this money and, accordingly,00:01:05
the government receives long-term00:01:07
money available to it that can be00:01:09
invested in some projects for years,00:01:12
that is, the task is to find00:01:14
some investment money.00:01:15
Because when you have money in the bank in your00:01:18
current account, you at any time you can00:01:19
come and take this money, well, it’s00:01:22
hard to work with it, you can’t00:01:24
invest it in some kind of projects00:01:25
designed to be implemented for 2-3 years00:01:28
Because you invested, the bank promised that you would give the00:01:30
money and the investors came and took everything You are00:01:33
without money, yes, that’s why I want what00:01:34
is called freezing investors’ money00:01:36
for as long as possible, and from here we are looking for00:01:39
opportunities to actively implement such00:01:41
instruments that freeze the00:01:43
investor’s money for a long time and allow them to be disposed of for a long time.00:01:45
Well, here’s some00:01:47
kind of game, Igor Vladimirovich.00:01:49
Do I understand correctly, Vladimir00:01:51
Putin says the fact that the economy is growing00:01:53
GDP per capita is also growing, everything is00:01:56
fine. Why then hold back the money00:01:58
If everything is so wonderful and do not give the00:02:00
opportunity to use it Well,00:02:05
listen to what the President of Russia says. Of00:02:06
course, it’s very interesting, but it’s absolutely00:02:08
pointless. It has nothing to do00:02:10
with the real situation in the00:02:12
economy. He tells Russia what00:02:14
the voter wants to hear about the marvelous00:02:16
successes of the Russian economy, but in fact00:02:19
the picture is not at all so cheerful precisely00:02:22
because all economic00:02:24
activity in Russia now rests on one00:02:26
branch, this is a state injection of money,00:02:28
no more of its own instruments of00:02:30
growth in the Russian economy. No,00:02:32
the state is just active takes money from everyone,00:02:34
concentrates it in its own hands and00:02:37
actively pours it into defense and other00:02:40
industries that are related to defense. This is where00:02:41
some00:02:43
economic growth comes from, and it is very00:02:45
weak. We have already looked at the statistics for00:02:48
last year; in general, the growth seems to be due to the00:02:50
defense complex00:02:52
it turned out to be small in Russia, he brought in this growth00:02:55
due to the defense complex, only00:02:57
% grew mainly due to the fact that00:03:00
money came from mobilized families, they00:03:02
came to the consumer market, so00:03:04
retail trade grew. But this,00:03:06
again, as you understand, is money that came00:03:08
from the budget. That is, now all It’s as if00:03:11
such a stormy way of life in the Russian00:03:13
economy is based only on the fact that the00:03:15
state pours money in. But in order for00:03:17
it to pour in money, it00:03:18
needs to get this money somewhere, so they are looking for ways to00:03:21
get money in order to continue00:03:23
pouring it into the Russian economy, but00:03:24
finding it is becoming more difficult. there is a search going on00:03:27
How to take away money in order to collect it in00:03:29
your own hands and continue to cheerfully00:03:30
finance this one, so to speak Well,00:03:32
like a feast based on military00:03:35
expenditures Igor Vladimirovich But if you00:03:37
borrow from India, China or other00:03:40
countries that cooperate with Russia,00:03:42
or is this not an option? they don’t give, they don’t00:03:46
give, no one wants to00:03:48
help Russia financially, look how much00:03:50
talk there was that China will help00:03:52
Russia,00:03:54
Russia never received a single interstate loan for 2 years.00:03:57
Of course, now the money would be00:03:59
more useful to pay attention to the fact that the Minister of00:04:01
Finance of Russia is constantly walking and the idea00:04:03
says We would be happy00:04:05
to place bonds in the yuan, that is,00:04:08
practically with the help of China we would get00:04:10
money for financing, but he says so, he00:04:13
says, but in general00:04:16
there is no issue of these bonds because China does not give any consent00:04:18
to bonds being placed in its monetary units00:04:20
And without his00:04:22
permission, you can’t place bonds in South Africa00:04:24
because South Africa is what00:04:26
China controls, so in general00:04:28
no one gives Russia money, everyone smiles gently at her,00:04:31
they buy gas and00:04:33
oil cheaply, but no one gives money and there’s00:04:36
nowhere to borrow the main money still goes around. in00:04:38
such rich countries And Russia’s00:04:41
access there is closed; there is a lot of money in00:04:43
Japan, but somehow the Japanese also don’t00:04:45
want to lend to Russia, therefore, in00:04:47
general, outside the borders of Russia What is called00:04:50
money is not very successful, if00:04:53
Igor Vladimirovich we already remembered00:04:55
China, the intelligence of the United States of00:04:57
America says the next thing is that China will provide00:05:00
economic assistance to ROSI and increase00:05:02
trade with it, this is how it is from an00:05:05
economic point of view, is this a00:05:07
partnership or is it still00:05:10
sucking resources from00:05:12
Russia, well, look, China now has a00:05:15
difficult economic situation;00:05:18
last year they even had a drop in00:05:19
weather in general export China, which is all00:05:22
export-oriented, lives by this,00:05:24
it had a drop in exports. That is, it is00:05:26
not doing very well. At this moment,00:05:27
as it were, the Russian knockout is called00:05:30
opened as widely as possible for00:05:31
Chinese goods. Well, why don’t the Chinese00:05:34
sell it to China? This is some kind of00:05:36
system, a help system additional00:05:38
income is in general They benefit from it, they are00:05:40
happy to use it to say that00:05:42
China is already helping Russia a lot in some way00:05:44
No, he makes money from it, he00:05:47
buys gas from Russia, he buys00:05:49
oil from Russia, accordingly, he must00:05:51
say to receive means resources means he00:05:55
buys these resources for yuan T Russia00:05:58
buys cars from China with these and00:06:01
now almost the entire Russian00:06:03
automobile market is Chinese00:06:04
cars China - It got good resources00:06:07
inexpensively and its products SBL00:06:09
factories work, some money00:06:11
is earned for China, this is the most00:06:13
profitable And Russia, of course, does not live very well00:06:15
because she receives Well, in general,00:06:18
goods from almost one country from00:06:20
China now critically depend on China,00:06:23
and in general, if something happens to China, the00:06:25
Russian economy will collapse along with the00:06:27
Chinese economy. Well, so to speak. Nobody00:06:29
knows whether the Chinese economy will collapse,00:06:31
we don’t know that, but00:06:33
We are seeing some signs of a crisis, the Chinese economy is00:06:35
not very stable right now, not in a very00:06:37
good position, they have enough problems of their own,00:06:39
so what is called Russia,00:06:41
has made friends with a not-so-healthy00:06:43
partner, and can become infected with trouble from00:06:45
him, this is the picture Igor00:06:48
Vladimirovich, if you remember the beginning of00:06:50
this year actively In suu they were targeting the00:06:54
refineries of the Russian Federation. Yes, we remember00:06:56
Yaroslavl and Tuapse and others, and00:07:00
now Kstova are saying that the Lukoil plant there00:07:02
supposedly processes more than 5% of00:07:06
all oil in Russia, and the information from the00:07:08
government is not up to date, but I’m trying to00:07:10
tie it up, you tell me right or not, from00:07:12
March 1, the next government said00:07:15
that but but but for six months not to sell00:07:18
fuel abroad, how much can this be00:07:21
related and how much does it really affect the00:07:23
dollars that Well, money and not00:07:27
dollars that come from oil and gas,00:07:30
it is possible and necessary because this is exactly the00:07:31
same the reason in Russia is that every year00:07:34
they set up refineries for scheduled repairs. This is00:07:36
usually in the summer. But now, as it were,00:07:39
such a critical situation has arisen precisely00:07:41
because several plants came under00:07:43
attack and, in general, as I understand it,00:07:46
technological problems arose there00:07:48
because the equipment was damaged. And some00:07:50
types of equipment are quite difficult00:07:51
to repair and restore00:07:53
under sanctions. Therefore, there is00:07:55
a threat that there will be00:07:56
interruptions and in this situation this00:07:59
decision is being made to ban exports for00:08:02
some time. Well, because there is a00:08:04
Spring military campaign ahead,00:08:07
where a lot of fuel will be needed. Well, there is a00:08:09
sowing campaign ahead. in00:08:11
agriculture, again, a tractor without fuel00:08:14
As you know, for some reason the populi don’t have00:08:16
horses in it, not00:08:19
harnessed actions in the fields of Ukraine,00:08:22
or it means disrupting the sowing campaign in the00:08:24
fields of Russia, which means that’s why it means,00:08:26
as if this situation is now being introduced into a00:08:28
ban on exports But this which means, on00:08:31
the other hand, that Russia will00:08:33
earn less from the export of petroleum products00:08:35
and, accordingly, there will be a greater deficit00:08:37
of foreign currency. And without foreign currency, Russia cannot00:08:39
pay for imports. Well, here’s a picture of00:08:41
such a situation: in one place we are patching up, in00:08:43
another place a hole appears. Well, you00:08:46
say yes or you need to sacrifice either00:08:48
the front or the passive Well, of course, you00:08:51
need fuel first of all to fight at the front.00:08:53
What do you think, how will the00:08:56
Russians themselves feel this and how will they react00:09:00
or react in general to this? Well, they will00:09:03
most likely feel it because as I00:09:05
understand it, after all the main resources00:09:08
will be allocated for military operations and00:09:10
of course agriculture, don’t00:09:12
dump agriculture because00:09:13
you know it’s easy to disrupt the sowing00:09:15
campaign. And in the fall you will have famine in00:09:17
the country. Therefore, such things are also trying to be00:09:20
balanced somehow. So you can00:09:21
understand that at first the sowing campaign slows down the00:09:24
fighting The Russian army00:09:25
because, well, there simply won’t be enough fuel for everyone.00:09:27
Well, what the population will get00:09:29
for their cars and for00:09:31
transport and for commercial transportation00:09:34
is, according to the residual principle, there will be enough for fuel00:09:37
pumps; there won’t be enough; there will be00:09:40
queues; people are already starting to00:09:41
write to me. A What do you think? Isn’t it time to00:09:43
create your own reserve of gasoline? I have00:09:46
a place here to bury a tank.00:09:48
Let’s do it. I know,00:09:50
when I listened to this, I immediately remembered how00:09:52
I once traveled around South Vietnam. It00:09:55
was a long time ago. It was probably the00:09:59
eighth year. and we drove for a long time to the00:10:01
ocean and we had to refuel; there00:10:03
wasn’t a single gas station on the highway.00:10:05
It’s normal now. You see a little00:10:07
guy sitting on the side of the road, he has a canister,00:10:10
you’re telling this little guy,00:10:18
taxiing in the jungle since the00:10:20
American war means in Vietnam, a00:10:23
tank that was buried the Vietnamese stole00:10:25
the Americans, it means he ran away,00:10:27
filled the canisters, brought us such a00:10:29
hidden Jungle gas station, in00:10:31
Russia we will soon have to do this. We00:10:34
lived like this in the Soviet Union, every00:10:36
owner of the car had to have00:10:38
canisters of gasoline stored in garages00:10:40
at the dachas because the devil only knows whether it00:10:42
will refuel or not, Igor Vladimirovich,00:10:44
media sources say the following:00:10:48
Putin00:10:50
wants to increase taxes on00:10:52
personal income by up to 20% And on00:10:56
profits by up to 25% And how realistic is it00:11:00
that they will take such steps, then how will00:11:03
it affect and Need Should we expect00:11:07
some very tough steps from the00:11:09
Kremlin government and Putin?00:11:12
Well, look, if we take last00:11:14
year, then the Minister of Finance spoke, tore his00:11:16
shirts on his chest, shouted that no00:11:18
serious Changes are planned in the Russian tax00:11:21
system for the next 3 years,00:11:23
but as you said00:11:25
Russian ministers can only be trusted by a00:11:27
very equal person, that after he immediately00:11:29
introduced a tax on excess profits of00:11:32
the Minister of Finance and forced everyone to00:11:34
pay this tax ahead of schedule, then00:11:36
export duties appeared, which00:11:38
increased the seizure of profits for Russian companies,00:11:41
just try to00:11:43
hear from 20% to00:11:47
68% in fact, there was a tax on profits and00:11:50
for duties on00:11:52
Russian exports, so what is called 25 against00:11:55
this background? This is just children's ice. So a00:11:57
very large robbery of00:11:59
Russian business is already underway; money is difficult to find.00:12:01
For all kinds of military operations,00:12:03
therefore, it means money is taken away from business00:12:05
and we we see that, well, what is called00:12:08
such a beautiful idea of a flat00:12:10
taxation scale, Putin00:12:13
was proud of it for a very long time that we have a flat, convenient,00:12:16
well-functioning scale of taxation of00:12:18
personal income. But now, as00:12:19
it were, it is changing, the president confirmed this00:12:22
in his message to the federal00:12:24
assembly, which means that yes, we we will change00:12:26
systemic taxation Well, the Ministry of Finance is00:12:27
working, we don’t know, but we are00:12:31
discussing what was leaked. Well, if this00:12:33
is really so, then it’s quite00:12:35
so. Well, how can I say it’s sad because00:12:37
there the first threshold will be on income of 100:12:41
million rubles, a million rubles - this00:12:43
is about 80,000 a month for a year. Well, let’s say this is a00:12:46
very poor family. And if we say00:12:49
this man has a wife and a child at home00:12:51
and he earns 8000, it will turn out.00:12:54
He is already considered rich, pays at a00:12:56
higher rate those 8 tro. This is not a great00:13:01
life, not a rich life. it’s a pretty00:13:02
hard life, but nevertheless, these00:13:04
people who are already from them will now00:13:07
be considered fattening in Russia and there00:13:09
will be an increased rate for them. It seems to me,00:13:12
Igor Vladimirovich And this will not affect00:13:14
any processes within Russia, let’s be00:13:16
patient, let’s listen to the government Well00:13:18
Russians You see what they endure,00:13:20
they say, Come on, the grandfathers endured, we00:13:22
will endure, And the president00:13:24
tells them about the hostile environment00:13:26
that the Armed Forces attacked, that we are waging a hybrid00:13:29
war, he now even began00:13:30
to use the word war, the President of Russia00:13:32
says we are waging a hybrid war with NATO,00:13:35
that’s why we have everything is difficult with us, everything is00:13:36
difficult, endure it And they want to kill us,00:13:39
destroy us, liquidate our00:13:42
value system, so be patient with the people and endure00:13:44
Well, and on March 13, in an interview, he said for the00:13:47
tenth time in 2 years, he said that the West00:13:49
deceived us, deceived Russia, deceived me, it’s00:13:52
very surprising, this is what he says that00:13:54
he is so wise He knows everything he is so00:13:56
many times in 2 years the00:13:58
poor thing was deceived at the event by the leaders of00:14:01
Russia Putin said the following stated that the00:14:04
Russian Federation will lose its share in the00:14:06
world oil market because00:14:08
Russian oil production is declining And in the USA00:14:11
it is growing I somehow find this information00:14:14
beats out others because, as a00:14:16
rule, Putin does not admit any00:14:18
mistakes, does not admit that somewhere Russia is00:14:20
second, somewhere Russia is losing And here00:14:22
he says that we are losing leadership00:14:25
Why does he say that Why and for whom is00:14:28
he preparing the ground later say and then00:14:31
he will say that the guardian00:14:34
deceived me, this will be the eleventh time,00:14:37
yes. But because Russia is really00:14:40
reducing oil production. Because there is an00:14:42
agreement with the guardianship and the trusteeship has00:14:45
already looked at Russia quite harshly. Putin went to00:14:49
apologize if you remember in the00:14:51
Middle East countries, which means these were such00:14:53
strange visits, such blitz visits, he00:14:56
apologized for not00:14:57
complying with the obligation to reduce production00:14:59
now. They seem to have begun to comply, so00:15:02
Russia produces less and the00:15:03
Americans are increasing, other countries are00:15:05
increasing. Therefore, indeed, the share of both00:15:08
Russia and the share of trustees is falling and they can no longer00:15:10
influence as much market So,00:15:12
look, in a year he will say that the trustee00:15:13
deceived me, he promised to stabilize prices, he did00:15:16
not provide, so we suffered again, we are00:15:18
so gullible, we were betrayed again by these00:15:21
bad Arab countries. Well, I00:15:23
can’t allow this to happen either, because the00:15:26
share of guardians is really reducing. They00:15:29
can’t do it anymore. to dictate prices like00:15:30
before, the Americans greatly increased00:15:33
production, and there even changed the structure of the00:15:36
oil industry. When00:15:37
these shale producers appeared,00:15:40
they were small, risky00:15:42
companies. Now we know that almost the00:15:44
entire shale business was bought out by large00:15:46
oil companies, put under their00:15:48
control, and in general too they are using00:15:50
Therefore, yes, Russia has been telling for a long time that00:15:53
shale production is all nonsense, it’s all00:15:55
madness, no one will extract gas or oil00:15:57
like that, it’s all00:15:59
included Blackmail and deception of gullible00:16:02
Russian Oil workers But we won’t give in,00:16:04
we know that this is a pure gamble, Slan and00:16:07
now vogo Yes Yes, it happens somehow, it’s00:16:09
not good, here again we were deceived, we00:16:12
believed only through wells.00:16:14
So, in old fields,00:16:16
shale oil can also be extracted. Well,00:16:18
the picture is that Russia is really00:16:20
forced to reduce production; the price is00:16:22
small; the income will be obtained, which would be the00:16:25
BD rata; we00:16:27
understand this; Yes, Gazprom and00:16:31
Putin’s will has been lost, the European market is now00:16:35
oil production is falling, how00:16:38
seriously can this hit the00:16:41
Kremlin’s wallet? Is this critical or will it00:16:45
not be felt for the next few years and00:16:47
there is some reserve of money to first of all00:16:50
Of course, this is to finance00:16:53
the war, this is painful, this is very It’s00:16:55
painful because it’s necessary. Let’s00:16:56
look at the real picture, as if00:16:59
we take the peacetime times of Russia before it00:17:01
started to fight, then in the structure of00:17:04
budget revenues of the Russian Federation the share of00:17:07
raw material income means oil00:17:10
gas means mineral fertilizers ferrous00:17:13
metals non-ferrous metals diamonds, all of this00:17:16
gave more than 60% budget revenues are more than00:17:20
60% So Russia has always lived not by the labor of00:17:23
its citizens who produce something00:17:25
final, but has lived only by the labor of its00:17:26
citizens who extract natural00:17:28
resources. This was the most important source of00:17:30
income, so of course income is lost,00:17:32
but what will happen will00:17:35
happen, the population will be robbed, money00:17:37
will be taken away he has to pay for the fact00:17:40
that he didn’t00:17:41
reach the wallets of the population. That’s00:17:43
about it, and this will be enough for several years.00:17:46
But for this year, in general, we00:17:48
think that Russia will cope with00:17:50
financing military expenditures and the00:17:52
budget, although with difficulty. But we don’t00:17:56
really understand the PD how in general00:17:58
will Russia make ends meet because the00:18:00
national welfare fund is00:18:02
declining, export revenues are falling, and00:18:04
then you know when export revenues are falling, it’s00:18:06
not just tax00:18:08
revenues to the budget that are falling, but00:18:10
simply the physical inflow of currency into the country is declining.00:18:13
And this means that problems arise with00:18:15
payment for imports And without imports, Russia Well,00:18:18
practically cannot live But Igor00:18:19
Vladimirovich And to what extent00:18:22
is there really a problem with the00:18:24
currency in Russia now? Apparently, it’s quite serious00:18:27
because look, it means the00:18:30
first deputy prime minister of the government,00:18:32
Belousov, and there’s a dispute going on. I would say something00:18:35
like this a tough discussion between00:18:36
the central bank and the Ministry of Finance means that00:18:38
it is not necessary to preserve the sale of00:18:41
currency, now all exporting companies00:18:43
must sell currency there, the principle00:18:46
is that you sold the goods abroad and00:18:48
received the currency. So you must return 80% of this currency00:18:51
to Russia and of these 80, 90%00:18:54
must sell for about 9000:18:57
days there, well, the Central Bank believes00:19:00
that this is some kind of completely crazy00:19:01
option, you can’t manage the foreign exchange00:19:03
market like that, it destroys the economy, it requires the00:19:05
abolition of compulsory sales, but the Ministry of Finance and the00:19:07
government want and keep it, and00:19:09
Belousov explains his position Why they don’t00:19:12
insist on compulsory sales00:19:13
uttered very significant words, he said,00:19:16
we understand that our main task is00:19:18
funding imports. Well, let’s00:19:20
translate it into Russian, we need00:19:22
blood and wear and tear to get currency so that the currency00:19:25
can be spent on purchasing imports,00:19:27
otherwise a stanza will come in Russia when the00:19:29
first vice-premier of00:19:31
the government speaks about this, it’s clear that the situation with00:19:33
the currency is becoming bad, which means they have00:19:35
been convincing Russian companies for a long time that they00:19:37
need to trade for rubles Well, well,00:19:40
someone started trading for rubles, now00:19:42
the issue of returning to barter00:19:44
in trade in foreign trade operations of00:19:46
Russia is being proposed by the00:19:48
government to switch to barter00:19:50
trade, but not everywhere. you can00:19:53
get something through barter, but in order to00:19:55
get something else you need currency and the00:19:57
currency is getting smaller and smaller. Great00:19:58
Britain came up with the idea. It is ready00:20:01
to transfer to Ukraine the assets of the Central Bank00:20:04
of Russia, we are just remembering the Central Bank.00:20:06
What does the former prime minister offer00:20:08
and now he Minister of Foreign Affairs, he00:20:11
says the next David Cameron that00:20:13
supposedly the Central Bank's frozen money00:20:16
can be transferred to Ukraine as a loan and then00:20:19
when Russia undertakes to pay the money00:20:22
for everything that it does in Ukraine then00:20:24
this money can be returned somehow. How do you How do you00:20:26
assess this as an economist?00:20:31
reality Well, in principle, it is implementable;00:20:33
it does not seem to violate the rules and00:20:36
private property rights of Russia for these00:20:38
assets, but it introduces a certain condition that we will not00:20:41
confiscate00:20:48
if certain conditions are met. But of00:20:51
course, this is such a rather rigid00:20:53
design. Nasko, it is legally a loan. I do00:20:56
n’t00:20:57
know how to Agree with Lawyers, by00:21:00
the way, have serious publications by00:21:03
American lawyers who prove00:21:04
that the seizure of Russian00:21:07
reserves in American European00:21:10
countries is fully within the00:21:11
current legislation, no00:21:13
special new laws need to be adopted in the00:21:17
USA, there is such a fairly00:21:19
large publication known by an American lawyer. I00:21:22
think that the UK will find some kind of00:21:24
solution, that is, they will do it such a cunning00:21:26
combination will not be confiscated,00:21:28
but will be temporarily loaned to support00:21:30
Ukraine and the money will be sent to a fund for00:21:32
financing the00:21:34
restoration of the Russian economy,00:21:36
something like this, Igor Vladimirovich and the00:21:37
last question. Please tell me are00:21:39
there any countries left in the world that are ready to00:21:41
somehow cooperate with Russia? Yes, somehow00:21:43
to help it maintain the economy so that,00:21:47
well, it doesn’t burst at the00:21:50
seams. Well, of course, there are Third00:21:53
World countries, but I would draw your attention to00:21:55
this rather alarming topic. That in00:21:57
general, foreign companies began to slowly return to Russia;00:22:01
foreign brands that left, they do00:22:03
not return directly; they create00:22:06
subsidiaries in countries neighboring Russia00:22:08
and from there, under the brands of these00:22:11
companies, supply to Russia what was00:22:13
previously not supplied, that00:22:15
they stopped supplying, and this means00:22:17
that, well, support for Ukraine in the00:22:19
world community is falling and companies are00:22:22
now not so afraid of what if if they00:22:24
sell to Russia, they will be condemned by local00:22:26
consumers, they will stop buying, and this, in00:22:28
my opinion, is such a worrying topic for Ukraine.00:22:30
What does it mean, well, as if00:22:32
public support is decreasing, if00:22:34
Ukraine cannot somehow00:22:36
restore this support, then many companies00:22:39
will return back to Russia, repeating Let In00:22:41
this indirect way, Russia00:22:43
will receive the goods that it needs,00:22:45
including possibly military goods,00:22:47
this is, of course, such an alarming00:22:49
topic and it needs to be solved, of course, by00:22:51
the government of Ukraine so that this does not00:22:53
happen while this process has begun, so00:22:55
there are countries that are ready, and00:22:58
even European countries00:23:00
they supply quite a lot in Russia, but there is00:23:02
information that equipment for LNG projects00:23:04
was leaked in Russia, so00:23:06
in this sense, such a final00:23:08
Victory of Ukraine over Russia in the00:23:11
trading markets did not happen. Russia fights back,00:23:14
evades, bribes and gets itself00:23:17
what it needs, so it’s not at all00:23:19
finally Victory for Ukraine in these00:23:21
markets Well, yes, there is something to work on Igor00:23:24
Vladimirovich Thank you very much for this00:23:25
conversation Thank you for explaining to me and00:23:27
our viewers what goes where and how because,00:23:29
as a rule, economics is such a you know00:23:31
tier that is difficult to climb and00:23:33
understand. And you this everything was done thank you all00:23:36
the best and happily Tell you with us buv00:23:39
Igor lipsi tse doctor of economic sciences00:23:41
vlasne yak clearly explained that Cody Yak00:23:44
became the Armed Forces of Krakki over Turkey and China want00:23:46
some kind of negotiations together with the Russian00:23:48
Federation, we tell them we are with those who00:23:50
kill, destroy and everything is blocked,00:23:52
we don’t talk at all, Belarus has lost its00:23:54
sovereignty and this is what Russia wants to do with00:23:56
each of its new victims and the purpose of the massacre,00:23:58
now we will understand all these00:23:59
issues Irina knot My name and with00:24:01
me is Gennady Gudkov, Russian00:24:02
opposition politician Gennady00:24:04
Vladimirovich Hello, glad to00:24:05
see you yes Irin Long time no see00:24:07
Hello, I am glad to welcome you and00:24:09
all your viewers We are ready to host a00:24:12
Peace Summit in which Russia will also be involved00:24:14
Says Turkish President Recep00:24:16
Tayyip Erdogan Zelensky answered him they00:24:17
block everything, kill, destroy and we don’t00:24:19
see How is it even possible to00:24:21
invite people who do all these00:24:23
processes create And how did Erdogan00:24:25
see that this is generally possible in principle?00:24:27
Perhaps what00:24:36
we understand is not the first00:24:38
month of talk Avdievka for 8 years such00:24:43
success solves its00:24:46
problems for him now it is important to00:24:48
strengthen his position in the00:24:50
country there are the00:24:59
main currencies Turkish and therefore Erdogan00:25:03
is trying to restore it now, including00:25:04
taking active measures, trying to somehow00:25:07
save the situation with finances, he00:25:10
needs a large Russian flow, he00:25:12
needs a large volume of trade, and so00:25:14
on and so on, sanctions secondary00:25:17
tertiary Well, conditionally secondary, which00:25:20
turns on the flywheel of00:25:27
these shas. Therefore, I think that there is first00:25:31
Erdogan’s turn defends his00:25:32
own interests, since00:25:35
the country continues to be in a state of00:25:40
financial crisis to a certain extent,00:25:42
not only financial and economic affairs00:25:44
are not very good. I think that is why the calls for00:25:48
war are purely00:25:57
practical. No, I don’t think that there are00:25:59
any deep studies there with Russia00:26:02
Although, of course, there are00:26:04
mediators in Turkey meeting and communicating,00:26:08
I mean mediators, including the00:26:10
Russian side, they are00:26:12
somehow flattering themselves with hopes that it00:26:16
will be possible to return to some more or less00:26:18
decent agreements, but this is not00:26:20
confirmed by the objective situation of obv00:26:24
zapu complex PTO00:26:28
no one at all knows how it will00:26:32
end, because on the one hand00:26:35
there is a tough position of Europe, it is00:26:37
growing00:26:38
tougher, it is visible in the positions of the actions of00:26:42
President Macron of his team in the00:26:45
actions and steps that Great00:26:48
Britain is taking, on the other hand. So00:26:51
far,00:26:57
everyone is still not here. catches his fish in00:27:00
troubled00:27:01
waters, in general, this is a rather difficult00:27:04
situation, a difficult situation, and now this is00:27:07
probably the impression I have, my00:27:09
personal impression. I can’t really00:27:11
say there, so I can give such an00:27:14
assessment, super-duper. As they say. For all00:27:17
questions, I have this feeling now it’s00:27:19
time00:27:22
to balance it called don’t push or two00:27:26
steps forward one step back or one step00:27:28
forward two back Here’s something similar, that00:27:31
is, the world is now trampling and still00:27:34
can’t decide what to do with this00:27:35
situation with the whole one that Putin has built in the world00:27:38
and his war, so to speak everything00:27:41
that can be done about it And as you see, Putin00:27:44
now really needs negotiations or he00:27:46
feels, on the contrary, some kind of inspiration00:27:49
without using real data because the00:27:51
destroyed ships are 33% plus the00:27:53
Black Sea Fleet 15 planes shot down in00:27:56
a little over 2 weeks and he comes out00:27:58
talking to us everything is fine, aviation is growing, the00:28:00
power of the army is growing, he really doesn’t00:28:02
understand and how00:28:04
beneficial such00:28:06
freezing negotiations would be for the Kremlin now, how00:28:09
realistic it is, now it’s profitable Negotiation from a00:28:12
position of strength, you need to understand here00:28:15
Give us ours and get yours, relatively00:28:19
speaking, such negotiations are00:28:21
beneficial for Putin just as peace is beneficial on these00:28:23
terms, this peace is not at all beneficial for00:28:25
Ukraine, this peace is not at all beneficial00:28:30
and not even the US A huge number00:28:33
of people will consider00:28:35
this an impossible option Negotiation with the00:28:38
position of forces When the forces are on00:28:42
Putin’s side, therefore objectively, of course, he is00:28:45
interested in peace or in a00:28:48
truce but the problem is in the World Cup The problem is00:28:57
that Well, so to speak, there are threats of flight of the00:29:01
army While there00:29:03
is no help like that that is coming, it is clearly not00:29:08
enough And so we thought with colleagues there, let’s00:29:12
say so abroad, we considered the00:29:13
military potential of the possibility of00:29:15
expanding the possibility of increasing and there00:29:19
in general- then Well, yes, you can, of course, now00:29:22
convey00:29:27
that a00:29:29
vacuum of your own will form. You’re00:29:32
not ready for this yet. Although of00:29:35
course you00:29:37
need to do it, again, only now they began00:29:40
to deploy a military complex. Only00:29:42
now I don’t know who was hoping for what, who was00:29:47
thinking about the World Cup, but that’s what is happening now00:29:49
there is a deployment going on, let's say the00:29:51
military complex of the plant is in process of00:30:01
many mass production00:30:04
of weapons such as the production of00:30:06
mine shells There and so on, they were00:30:09
curtailed as a result now It turns out00:30:11
that shells are produced on those lines00:30:14
that, in general, do not have time to00:30:16
do anything, you need to do something new, you need to00:30:18
create something new production of shells now00:30:21
maddeningly00:30:26
dogs00:30:28
misunderstanding of the possibility of a protracted00:30:31
protracted nature of the war they did not00:30:33
expect this that the war could last so00:30:35
long that Russia would be capable of00:30:38
mobilizing its economy00:30:40
quickly enough and the West could not do this SG00:30:43
Why gogan why President Macron00:30:46
is talking about the00:30:48
need to mobilize the00:30:50
Western00:30:56
West for a long a serious and intense00:31:00
war, even with Russia, so when00:31:03
they start comparing potential there,00:31:07
they begin to compare financial resources,00:31:09
it turns out that Putin calmly spends00:31:11
up to 120 billion dollars a year on the war there, and00:31:15
so far, it’s extremely difficult00:31:17
to oppose this, so to speak, that is,00:31:20
this needs to be00:31:22
increased several times Well, not twice as much,00:31:25
at least the exchange of assistance, first of00:31:28
all, with00:31:29
military means for military purposes for the00:31:32
military, equipment, supply weapons,00:31:36
ammunition, and so on, and now there is00:31:39
so much understanding that this must be00:31:41
done, that the war will not end tomorrow, that00:31:44
you can’t lose it, that you need to start00:31:46
production But this is happening with a delay, roughly00:31:49
speaking, a year and a half, everything is happening These00:31:51
are the statements of Macron, he is not giving up, we00:31:53
started discussing with you as soon as00:31:55
this idea of his appeared, the initiative to00:31:56
send troops, he is now saying Yes,00:31:59
nothing can be ruled out in this world00:32:01
Today you are talking to me with a00:32:02
journalist they answer says but by lunch00:32:04
you00:32:09
will be hungry00:32:12
this is being discussed nevertheless e and more00:32:15
frightened somehow Germany and not only00:32:17
deprived and Do you think macron is not alone00:32:20
in his vision of the00:32:21
possible intensification of assistance and the00:32:24
development of such cardinal00:32:26
Apparently, yes, he says there are00:32:28
no more red lines, that Medvedev does00:32:30
n’t even know how to appeal anymore.00:32:33
Well, bloggers discovered that Medvedev00:32:38
starts having attacks of this attack00:32:40
of threats after receiving parcels of a large00:32:44
number of wines from melancholy, it turns out00:32:47
they found out such a dependence as soon as he00:32:50
receives parcels Well, the delivery of wine00:32:55
after some time, he makes00:32:56
menacing statements00:32:59
Well, maybe it’s a00:33:02
coincidence, I don’t think I probably want this00:33:06
some note of00:33:08
optimism for00:33:09
our listeners and viewers from what I00:33:13
know I understand about France from what I00:33:15
know I understand about France believe me00:33:18
- that I understand a little that they are not00:33:26
going to00:33:29
France is quite harsh with the understanding00:33:32
that the war of democracy tyranny00:33:35
has no right to lose,00:33:36
other countries are starting to catch up, that is,00:33:38
France has taken on the00:33:40
political leadership in this war, at00:33:42
least in00:33:43
Europe, and this, in my opinion, is00:33:48
good The signal is a good symptom, a00:33:56
good one.00:33:58
They are not going to give up these00:34:02
positions, at least the information00:34:05
that is available to me is at my00:34:08
disposal a witness that France00:34:10
is stopping on this path of supporting00:34:12
aid, there00:34:16
will be no intensive aid to Ukraine and it00:34:19
involves other countries. Yes, maybe00:34:20
Germany00:34:26
for now Only purely German help he is00:34:29
coming Here But I think that there are other00:34:33
countries there the same Great00:34:36
Britain Poland There are many other00:34:38
countries The Czech Republic A number of other countries are beginning to00:34:42
take a rather tough, irreconcilably00:34:45
very decisive position, this is a00:34:48
good mountain Well, there is good news So00:34:50
you can howl, she can not exactly news00:34:52
But this is at least a good trend00:34:54
that should be discussed, it inspires a00:34:57
certain sense of optimism It seems that in00:35:00
the West they are beginning to understand that this is, after all,00:35:01
their war, you know, I talked to it so it00:35:06
turned out that the last few00:35:07
days there have been meetings with various00:35:09
politicians from different countries It seems that00:35:12
I have the impression that00:35:14
the understanding that this is our war is00:35:16
beginning to come to the Europeans before this. And it00:35:19
wasn’t quite like that, let’s be00:35:21
honest. Well, yes, there is a war going on, we need to00:35:23
help. Yes, of course we will support the00:35:25
heroic struggle of Ukraine, yes. Yes, but that’s00:35:28
still it. not our war, many said00:35:30
that this is a war between Russia and00:35:31
Ukraine today. This attitude is changing,00:35:34
the perception of the war is changing and we00:35:38
see a rather tough, decisive00:35:42
position of a number of European countries which, in00:35:45
general, well, somewhere is ready to00:35:49
take on the burden of this to some extent support for00:35:52
Ukraine so that the United States is not the00:35:55
only state, so to speak,00:35:57
that determines the key position00:36:00
regarding Ukraine of the entire Western00:36:02
coalition. Well, something like this is going on. I00:36:05
definitely feel this in conversations and00:36:07
in conversations and in negotiations and in assessments00:36:10
and in the press. the trend00:36:13
can be traced Gennady Vladimirovich And00:36:15
what markers tell you about the strengthening of00:36:17
this trend? What countries are we still00:36:19
talking about that are ready to change00:36:22
their attitude like this? And the main thing is00:36:24
to show this in actions regarding the00:36:25
Ukrainian-Russian war00:36:28
Well, France definitely Britain yes It00:36:32
seems that Sweden is joining00:36:35
this process Denmark00:36:38
Norway countries of Eastern Europe Well,00:36:42
maybe now it’s just easier00:36:44
to name countries00:36:45
that don’t fully understand this00:36:48
situation, but we probably,00:36:52
unfortunately, can include Germany for now,00:36:54
this is of course the largest state in00:36:56
Europe, the most powerful,00:36:58
of course, while they have internal00:37:01
problems that they have yes, they also00:37:03
absorb them without a00:37:05
trace. Here are some other countries that may00:37:09
fall out. Well, I won’t say anything about the veins.00:37:11
Yes, the family is not without an orb, as you and I00:37:15
say. Yes, I didn’t say that,00:37:19
even Bulgaria Look, she’s pretty00:37:21
decisive about the president who is the PTA00:37:25
block Having supplied weapons and being00:37:28
quite combative, somehow00:37:30
the trend is00:37:32
changing now. This is very well felt00:37:35
in the Kremlin. What do you think, and what kind of00:37:37
red lines can they still set now,00:37:39
considering that the West says that they are no longer there?00:37:42
Well, seriously, what do they feel this for?00:37:46
Of course, they are00:37:47
unpleasant about the option for which they, by00:37:49
and large, are not ready; they are not00:37:52
ready for a war of attrition, but we00:37:54
understand that this is a very difficult path for00:37:56
Ukraine; here is a war of attrition, but in00:38:00
principle Putin. Well, as far as we know,00:38:04
Putin believes that up to six00:38:07
years I I’m forced to say this, the cream00:38:11
believes that until six years later they have the00:38:13
resources to wage a full-scale00:38:15
war here, unless some kind of00:38:18
change occurs in supplies, unless00:38:20
some kind of change occurs, Cast Delivery00:38:26
Vozhe the coalition after all As they say, don’t00:38:29
pull the cat by the tail don’t cut off a cat’s00:38:32
tail in parts, you know, that’s why00:38:35
the situation is like this00:38:38
now, some kind of turning point in consciousness00:38:41
has emerged, we just need to support this trend00:38:43
so that it leads to results,00:38:45
so Putin, of course, this is unpleasant for him,00:38:47
but for now he does not consider it00:38:50
a disaster Gennady Vladimirovich you00:38:52
say until 2026, the elites who so-00:38:54
called talked to the publishing house00:38:57
say that until 2030 there is a sense of readiness00:38:59
and desire from the Kremlin regime to fight00:39:01
and that they say even they have already00:39:04
reconfigured various officials there for war as if it00:39:06
were ordinary, but they call it theirs,00:39:08
but nevertheless They say that if we are there for the00:39:10
first year and a half of a full-scale00:39:12
invasion, they will remind you, again,00:39:13
they say they were somehow tense, somehow00:39:16
interested in what was happening at the front,00:39:17
now we are generally used to living our00:39:19
normal lives, switching to more00:39:22
everyday problems, there is no such thing in00:39:27
Putin’s surroundings. in the Kremlin and so on there is00:39:29
no such thing. They understand perfectly well that00:39:32
what they are generally afraid of is that it is00:39:35
very, so to speak,00:39:39
unpleasant for them to act and carry out. They00:39:42
understand that this is a great huge00:39:44
damage to the authorities caused by the mobilization 2000:39:49
Lord today in the second year00:39:56
and when did they go there some will00:39:59
try not to send people to the front That’s why00:40:03
they are afraid now and00:40:06
what they will have to do if they00:40:08
wage a war At the rate they are waging, they will00:40:10
need00:40:12
mobilization, mobilization will no longer be required00:40:14
voluntarily by force as it is now00:40:16
going on Yes, but it will be required by force00:40:20
voluntarily This is in the best00:40:26
case,00:40:28
and since the resources of the army are melting away00:40:32
as the personnel go. They understand perfectly well00:40:38
that they need to somehow come to00:40:41
some kind of understanding of the need for00:40:43
mobilization and If you noticed,00:40:46
mobilization does not affect00:40:48
large cities yet, well, mainly the costs of00:40:57
their We were in Paris, but they say00:41:00
these numbers, they say that00:41:04
almost the population of Russia lives there in cities with a population of over a00:41:07
million. And if we take cities from00:41:11
half a million00:41:12
to a million, the percentage there is still00:41:15
twice as high. That is, it turns out Almost00:41:18
half of the population that creates a00:41:20
public This is the present public00:41:26
sse00:41:28
situations in the country are created precisely by people00:41:30
who live in the largest cities, there are not00:41:33
so many of them, that’s what this says, they00:41:35
are trying to not touch this for now, they are00:41:38
now going through all this00:41:40
mobilization forced voluntary00:41:42
voluntary forced they are still00:41:45
trying to touch upon some These are the00:41:47
medium-sized cities,00:41:49
villages,00:41:51
villages,00:41:52
degradation in our00:41:55
terminology, districts of the city of Ver. They are00:41:59
calling from there to00:42:02
Buryatia, and there are fewer of them now. But00:42:06
nevertheless, in order not to affect the life of large00:42:09
cities, this is what they are afraid of. That is,00:42:12
if large cities begin there, there will be00:42:15
some kind of Bukha Sorry00:42:18
for this word00:42:26
if the00:42:28
situation is so bad that for a long time00:42:32
Nako voluntarily forcibly00:42:34
mobilize poor regions of large00:42:37
families and so on and so on, in00:42:38
general, it won’t last long,00:42:41
people from large cities will have to be called up And this is a00:42:44
very big00:42:56
reputational burden We go to work, we00:42:58
grew up there salaries and so on and so on, and00:43:00
now you want to take this life away from us,00:43:03
here there could be a serious problem,00:43:05
such a fork in the road, well, this is because right00:43:08
now it is felt from what both00:43:10
our and non-our experts say, from00:43:13
what people say.00:43:16
And there is a lot new torch of00:43:21
directions of sensations in Russia there is00:43:24
absolutely no unity there00:43:26
cannot be adaptation Yes, if00:43:29
you ask me Is there adaptation in Russia to the00:43:30
war Yes it is It has arrived But this is00:43:33
adaptation by default because everyone00:43:35
is waiting for It’s more likely to be something00:43:37
it’s over, but it must00:43:39
end with something, this is the main motive, that’s00:43:42
what should end there, not with00:43:45
the defeat of Russia;00:43:47
this, of course, is supported by people of an00:43:50
older population, an older population, an00:43:51
older population00:43:54
in the elites, there is a situation there. I00:43:57
can’t fully understand it because there are00:44:00
reviews people included in these elites that00:44:03
everything is not very healthy there and everyone understands00:44:05
that this is a00:44:06
dead end, but for now that’s00:44:08
all they understand And they do00:44:12
n’t want to act We were talking here the other00:44:14
day with Larino And they have no no guarantees00:44:18
no agreement no00:44:21
dialogue That is, when they there is no00:44:23
guarantee for you there is no dialogue00:44:26
there is no attention and no, so to speak, as00:44:29
they say Well, the stick is understandable, but where is the Gingerbread and00:44:32
when this is not there, the dialogue with the elites is00:44:34
very complex, therefore it00:44:37
does not exist as such, and it passes. Well, as I would say, the00:44:40
old terminology, it passes in a00:44:42
point-by-point manner for now, but the exact option00:44:45
Well, this is not the option, we talked with00:44:48
Ksenia Larina, a journalist, and came to the00:44:50
conclusion that Putin will do anything at all,00:44:52
he won’t care about people’s opinions, he’s even00:44:54
more like that, in terms of mobilion00:45:02
estimates Kaz00:45:04
also see, you don’t even bother anyone, you need to00:45:07
kill Navalny they took him and killed him00:45:09
Although, to be honest, all smart people00:45:12
say that it was simply impossible to do00:45:14
under any00:45:17
circumstances, even due to00:45:25
pragmatic ones,00:45:27
so there is no here, all these death00:45:29
penalties are repressive laws, this is what they will00:45:31
continue to do, the system will not stop,00:45:34
it must prove its need to00:45:36
receive a repressive system, it must00:45:39
receive dividends there, bonuses, so to00:45:41
speak, shoulder straps, anything important,00:45:43
so to speak, to be an indispensable element of00:45:48
this regime of this government. The fact is00:45:50
that they are early in the mass00:45:55
mood for some kind of rebellion, this they are00:45:58
afraid of, this could be regional riots,00:46:01
as we saw something in Bashkiria00:46:02
like Yes, there00:46:04
may be some prototypes there, like a riot, some00:46:06
women00:46:07
will come out, which is coming out now, and there the00:46:12
political factor of color is gaining more and more, so to speak. In00:46:15
these protests, that is, they still00:46:18
can’t say that Putin is that’s all And00:46:21
now not everything is possible, no, he00:46:23
understands perfectly well that he can only do something that will not00:46:26
lead to a massive uprising against00:46:28
him in the00:46:30
mass mood, let’s say pessimism later, and00:46:34
so on, he00:46:36
understands well. Therefore, on the one hand,00:46:39
of course, repressions will certainly increase,00:46:41
the number of people who will00:46:43
begin to understand that in general, everything is going to a00:46:45
dead end, these people will increase in number, they will00:46:48
need to be suppressed with them, it will be00:46:55
necessary. All because I moved there, he00:46:59
understands perfectly well that these elections are00:47:03
rigged to a degree, it will be00:47:05
drawn that but for him it is important there,00:47:09
probably more for their Elites to show00:47:12
that he’s cool Well, I think that anyway00:47:14
they understand perfectly well that00:47:17
events can happen, the regime is fragile inside,00:47:21
so events can happen that00:47:22
can shake it and sometimes And maybe00:47:24
even destroy it. Thank you very much00:47:27
Gennady Vladimirovich for today’s00:47:28
conversation, thank you for taking the time until we00:47:50
meet againDescription:
У найкращих стрімах Геннадій Гудков та Ігор Ліпсіц обговорили найцікавіші новини за останній час, а саме: - у Росії дуже сильні проблеми з економікою; - потужні прильоти по РФ та наслідки для росіян; - плани Володимира Путіна на війну в Україні; - ЗСУ зірвали всі плани Москви; - несподівана пропозиція від Реджепа Ердогана та останні настрої росіян.
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