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Channel: Бывший 1Сник

Oralman

Oralman

Channel: Сабит Курманбеков

путин

снова

полезет

киев

бабченко

00:00:01

guest journalist Arkady Babchenko on the air

00:00:03

program air on vacation on

00:00:04

Khodorkovsky life hello go away

00:00:06

welcome then go to bed very glad good

00:00:09

afternoon good afternoon thank you very much for

00:00:12

joining Arkady I want, of course,

00:00:16

like many people who have done this since the

00:00:18

beginning of the war in Ukraine in that stage it’s

00:00:21

hot, which is now the second

00:00:23

main one, so to speak, on February 2, 4,

00:00:26

go back to your experience of the war in Chechnya and

00:00:30

do it this way from our last

00:00:32

broadcast yesterday, which you can also

00:00:35

watch right now in the air, that’s

00:00:37

why many people who were with us on

00:00:40

the air in recent days they told the defense what

00:00:42

Putin was doing, he started the second Chechen war and

00:00:46

if the first ended in defeat near

00:00:48

Grozny in Grozny and near Kiev for the

00:00:51

Russian army they jumped in and

00:00:53

encountered armed serious

00:00:56

united resistance from people who

00:00:58

defended themselves, well, how can a Chechen flow on

00:01:02

wine there I am now for God's sake, just

00:01:04

understand correctly I am retelling other

00:01:06

stories of other people and the words of other

00:01:08

people, it is clear that you, who

00:01:10

have seen from the inside, can

00:01:12

relate to everything in any way and in a completely

00:01:13

different way, correct me now,

00:01:15

look what Putin is doing now, he is even

00:01:17

slow and

00:01:19

viscous the most difficult war for both sides

00:01:23

grinds grinds armies in

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which Putin has a lot of time

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a lot of strength which he doesn’t mind, it’s very

00:01:31

important artillery doesn’t feel sorry for the territory

00:01:34

he occupies, even though there will be nothing left there at all

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and in this sense it

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begins to resemble the second and since the

00:01:40

second war is over although the defeat of

00:01:42

Russia but the annexation of Chechnya, that is, is there a

00:01:46

parallel here that we

00:01:48

should be scared of? I wanted to talk to you about this

00:01:51

and ask you about it, something about this, do you

00:01:53

think about

00:01:55

without spilling anything, it doesn’t scare me what I

00:01:59

said, what I

00:02:01

said, that probably everything is necessary - after all,

00:02:03

not with the second Chechen war, but rather with Syria,

00:02:05

because

00:02:08

but such a massive use of

00:02:12

weapons of all types of weapons that

00:02:15

are now in Ukraine in Chechnya is still

00:02:17

not a year old

00:02:18

Putin, yes Putin knows how to learn from his

00:02:21

mistakes, yes they miscalculated

00:02:23

strategically at the very beginning and now

00:02:25

they retreated, will regroup,

00:02:27

change the strategy to a tactical one,

00:02:29

everything works out for him tactically, and I

00:02:31

absolutely agree with you in this regard,

00:02:34

no damn cannon fodder, the

00:02:36

superiority of artillery is not 20 times the superiority of the

00:02:39

number of his lower class friend, they float

00:02:41

according to the sensations of these, and we don’t

00:02:43

mind the crap in the sense that for him they are simple

00:02:44

people who should die in their place

00:02:46

other people should come they should

00:02:48

die

00:02:50

talk about what talk about

00:02:54

when 15,000 people are taken to Russia

00:02:57

thirty thousand forty thousand 50 thousand

00:02:59

people Russians wake up hide it

00:03:02

all this is [ __ ] and 100 you are now not a

00:03:05

substitute, no Russia will not wake up and

00:03:08

200 thousand that is, strangely ripe, ripe

00:03:12

for the war, ripe for the graves, so

00:03:14

the conversation is about the fact that some amount of

00:03:16

cannon fodder that good

00:03:18

forest plantations in Ukraine will have become friends

00:03:20

if you suddenly look, I’m going to

00:03:23

go to I have a request for you from Ukraine,

00:03:24

put sunflower seeds in your pocket, guest, it’s

00:03:27

very necessary, so

00:03:28

nothing can stop Russia now,

00:03:32

so yes, Putin

00:03:34

is able to take into account mistakes, he is able to rearrange, he is

00:03:37

able to

00:03:38

regroup with cannon fodder, there will

00:03:40

be no problem at all for 200 thousand for

00:03:42

150 thousand which he promises the military registration and enlistment office

00:03:44

in general there will be no problems 250

00:03:47

thousand there will be no problems

00:03:49

really resources resources he

00:03:50

has if he has enough

00:03:53

oil did not collapse

00:03:55

showing the first 100 in 1 100 days of the war

00:03:59

Russia earned 93

00:04:02

billion dollars a day from hydrocarbons it

00:04:05

spends half a billion on the war to earn

00:04:07

a billion in fact therefore resources

00:04:09

for now he has enough, there will be such

00:04:11

creeping

00:04:13

laying out as cannon fodder and

00:04:16

comparing to the ground like how they

00:04:19

did it in the series, but I’m not sure they will

00:04:21

succeed, I’m also sure that it won’t work, but

00:04:24

there is room. or the time where, as you think, they will have to stop like a white walker at the wall and rub along the river or 2 create this parity, this point will come during the flight when Ukraine receives a sufficient number of weapons to suppress all of them, but mostly of course artillery for counter-battery warfare, well and of course [music] the convocation is when the parity of the artillery, first of all the artillery, will be achieved, then the front will somehow more or less stop, and you can imagine building a peaceful life in Ukraine under the threat of the Syrian batteries, even if frozen, but always existing somewhere on the border or will parity really look like something similar to a strong agreement? One can imagine the question of what will happen then, how ready is the Ukrainian Ukrainian army to stop, will it be ready to then go further forward and how far will it allow it, again, weapons that will be supplied by the West as for Russia Russia it becomes when Russia Ukraine does not remain calmer when Putin will still live for 15 years completely calmly men healthy access to medicine the best is still open to him so 4 episodes are inevitable in any case I think it is necessary so it is necessary I think that Ukraine must definitely understand this we must accept that, taking into account all the mistakes, they will be preparing for another assault on Kyiv, and I think that they will climb again, definitely some time after the active phase ends, then a pause after you didn’t climb.

00:06:19

Arkady, I would like to ask you

00:06:22

something a little different, although in general everything is about the

00:06:25

same, it’s all, of course,

00:06:27

connected to the war in Ukraine and its

00:06:29

possible developments. You

00:06:33

recently wrote a post on your telegram

00:06:36

channel where, in general,

00:06:40

this post makes you quite anxious.

00:06:42

it seems that you quite realistically assess the

00:06:45

possibility of Russia attacking countries,

00:06:49

starting with Lithuania, which is now being talked about a lot

00:06:53

in connection with the crisis around the

00:06:56

Kaliningrad region,

00:06:59

let me even quote you, you

00:07:02

have three forecasts, three possible scenarios, the

00:07:06

first scenario, Putin thinks that it

00:07:08

will be necessary to fight for the Baltic and realizing the

00:07:11

futility of such a war

00:07:12

refuses to attack, well, that is,

00:07:14

we read a good scenario, the second scenario

00:07:17

Putin thinks that NATO will not fight

00:07:19

for the Baltic, they will swallow Gdansk as before

00:07:22

and start a war, the scenario is extremely

00:07:26

pessimistic and the third option

00:07:28

thinks that it will be necessary to fight for the

00:07:30

Baltic and even anyway, spend the night, but

00:07:33

what you wrote already, we will still go

00:07:36

to heaven, they will die and then Putin starts

00:07:39

the war, the most probably crazy ones, but

00:07:43

in general, it doesn’t matter, more or less a

00:07:44

realistic scenario, could you tell me

00:07:48

your forecast for what? what

00:07:53

Putin is really ready or not ready to

00:07:55

do, but you and I have no idea

00:07:59

what he is ready for, we ourselves understand from her that you have

00:08:01

your Tanya there in your head, it’s like

00:08:03

a box, we have no idea how crazy

00:08:05

he is with his greatness, the desire to go down

00:08:08

in history, for example as the first person

00:08:10

I will start a thermonuclear war before, but if

00:08:13

we talk about these three options, the

00:08:15

second option does not seem the least

00:08:17

likely that Putin will decide that NATO

00:08:20

will not fit in and therefore you can start a war

00:08:22

no Reds incredible the

00:08:25

first option is not Reds more

00:08:27

likely that he is hanging after all what the

00:08:29

fact that we will have to fight completely NATO and

00:08:31

will not start a war, but I also don’t

00:08:34

rule out the third option completely, completely, that is,

00:08:39

but we are now going through moment x now

00:08:42

it’s come to me on February 24, moment x

00:08:45

is coming now let’s see

00:08:48

how ready they are to accelerate but but

00:08:52

let’s Let’s remember that Putin is extremely

00:08:53

fond of retreating, he really doesn’t like

00:08:55

to lose and he knows how to play the long game,

00:08:58

he really knows how to play the long game, if

00:09:02

someone creates any

00:09:03

analyst forecasts for you, this is [ __ ],

00:09:04

don’t believe the golden dogs,

00:09:07

no one has any idea what will happen tomorrow it’s raining

00:09:09

or I’m screaming

00:09:11

for Putin, Chechnya was a problem, I

00:09:15

mean the very fact that this is some kind of

00:09:17

unreplaced enclave in which

00:09:19

things continue to happen and

00:09:20

people come from there and blow up something,

00:09:23

if we assume for a second that

00:09:25

it was connected with Chechnya, we’ll sell

00:09:27

it Now we’re not talking about houses, everything is clear, for some reason it

00:09:30

was a problem only

00:09:33

because it was not defeated, or for some

00:09:36

other reason, can we say that Chechnya

00:09:39

was a problem, that’s why it was squeezed, and

00:09:43

Ukraine, even if it

00:09:45

reaches its borders, there won’t

00:09:48

be a problem because it on our own

00:09:49

borders, not on other people’s, well, it’s like parity of

00:09:52

the status quo, where we started, we ended up calling it

00:09:54

peace and everyone will be happy

00:09:57

for Putin the problem was not Chechnya for the

00:10:00

prostitute the problems are private

00:10:02

Ukraine for Putin the problems and years

00:10:04

now is not Lithuania for Putin the problem

00:10:07

is the lack of an

00:10:08

empire and the loss of this empire beat those

00:10:12

territories that you had before this trouble,

00:10:14

some consider them to

00:10:17

belong to the empire, that is, for him

00:10:19

the problem is pontoon imperial pain, he is not at

00:10:22

war with Ukraine because you fight

00:10:24

dryly and it needs to

00:10:28

be seen in Ukraine as a subject, but in Ukraine,

00:10:31

of course, there is no subject They don’t see for

00:10:33

him that there is no such sovereign

00:10:35

independence of a country like Ukraine that

00:10:37

can reach some kind of its own borders,

00:10:38

Ukraine like Ukraine is a lost part of the

00:10:41

Russian empire that needs to be returned

00:10:43

back, I stand for it.

00:10:46

therefore, not only Ukraine, definitely

00:10:50

definitely Belarus and, if possible, on the

00:10:52

side of the beam, if possible, here we

00:10:55

return to the options and see

00:10:57

which one he chooses, and then further on,

00:10:59

I would

00:11:00

also advise Central Asia to

00:11:03

start preparing, my hypothesis

00:11:05

is

00:11:06

that those people are

00:11:09

liberal who were

00:11:12

not correct enough ponies not days ago

00:11:15

who seemed to be saying that

00:11:17

Russia is an empire and Crimea is not ours at all and

00:11:21

everything else and it seemed to them that it was

00:11:24

vulgar Putin is not that much of a Hitler but

00:11:26

just a dictator of some kind those people of

00:11:28

liberal views from the swamp who

00:11:31

said Well, Babchenko

00:11:32

goes too far in addressing Russian and

00:11:36

Russian liberals, including, first of

00:11:39

all, liberals, these are the people

00:11:41

whose tail you are, as we now

00:11:44

understand, rightly so, you

00:11:47

couldn’t do anything, you couldn’t

00:11:48

protect this thin layer of people

00:11:51

whose on the one hand, he beat Putin, on the

00:11:53

other hand, quite rightly, you

00:11:55

were the only membrane who

00:12:00

defended Ukraine from the outbreak of war and they were

00:12:02

torn to shreds

00:12:03

from all sides, and then it all

00:12:06

started, that’s all, that’s the

00:12:09

essence of my question, of

00:12:10

course there was no membrane at

00:12:13

all membranes of which it could

00:12:15

become December 2011

00:12:18

maximum in the yard of 2012 when there was a chance

00:12:20

when a window of opportunity appeared for

00:12:22

this membrane to really become after

00:12:25

this such a subject, again, of Russian

00:12:28

politics, by the way, a subject of Russian

00:12:29

politics in this phrase, all three words are lies,

00:12:33

no politics is not Russian, and certainly not

00:12:37

no position has

00:12:39

ever had more subjectivity there, so

00:12:41

after that there was no Russian

00:12:43

politics like the Russian position or

00:12:45

Russian liberals there, which is also by the way

00:12:47

oxymoron there are no Russian

00:12:48

liberals liberal to be only

00:12:50

anti-Russian, also where imperial

00:12:52

respect arose and no one decided anything

00:12:54

decided everyone is only one person Vladimir

00:12:56

Vladimirovich Putin lychee tail of Altai not

00:12:58

these people but the cover of 100

00:13:01

of them indecision and misunderstanding of

00:13:04

the situation in the hope that all of you I won’t

00:13:06

wake up and say whales you will say yes

00:13:09

indeed probably if you wave

00:13:11

balls into the pen but most likely probably

00:13:14

nothing will happen and

00:13:16

when - 8 years will pass, I am Alexander

00:13:20

Sokurov, a member of the Human Rights Council

00:13:23

under the President, at the border knows that it

00:13:25

turns out that the airbus was dropped by an iron plan,

00:13:28

reset to

00:13:29

so I tried to make it so

00:13:34

simple, as you call it, woke up,

00:13:36

but not fate and fate, now everyone has now

00:13:38

passed, released all the possibilities are

00:13:40

absolutely nothing to talk about now only

00:13:43

catharsis and

00:13:46

martial law or

00:13:49

northern Iran behind the Iron Curtain behind the

00:13:52

fence how much is the sofa and and rotting there

00:13:55

tell the Orthodox revolution since

00:13:58

Robinho when it was there then 63

00:14:02

seems sims 3 40 years of swamps 40 years

00:14:05

please Ayatollah regime until now since

00:14:08

persistent code never

00:14:10

thank you for watching this video

00:14:13

like it and like our

00:14:15

program this is important and more

00:14:17

people will see it I am Timur Olevsky this is the air

00:14:20

stay with us

Description:

Эфир с Тимуром Олевским на Ходорковсикй Live. К сожалению, пока я живу только на ваши донаты. Подписывайтесь на меня на Патреон: https://www.patreon.com/babchenko Если вы считаете, что свою писательскую жизнь я живу не зря, что мои тексты заставили задуматься, пересмотреть какие-то решения, принять их, взглянуть на мир по-новому, засмеяться, заплакать, сопереживать, улучшить свои навыки по критическому восприятию информации или иным способом были полезны, то все как всегда. Спасибо. Приват-банк карта номер: 5363 5423 0856 3718 Карта "Приват" для переводов в евро: 5363 5423 0856 3775

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