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Russian
00:00:31
hello ladies and gentlemen,00:00:33
Dmitry Saladin here you are, you are on a channel00:00:35
that is dedicated to investing and trading,00:00:37
I have returned from vacation, as you can see,00:00:40
alive and well00:00:41
and00:00:42
ready to work, today we will talk00:00:45
about the economy, a00:00:46
couple of risks and that every investor00:00:50
is experiencing now, in general, I hope, as00:00:52
always, it will be useful and you will like it,00:00:54
write if I can be clearly seen and heard, I’m00:00:56
working live00:00:59
Dmitry there is a risk of a collapse, it seems in the00:01:01
technical cession it may go to00:01:03
a collapse, but today we’ll talk about it and,00:01:06
most importantly, we’ll talk about00:01:08
what can be done to seed these risks00:01:14
or not00:01:17
I’m in a gloomy mood if Honestly, just00:01:20
be prepared for the fact that I may have00:01:23
read too much news00:01:26
while I was resting, I can see myself perfectly well, I00:01:30
can hear ok, let’s get started,00:01:34
so I’ll try to make them shorter and00:01:41
so the risks are risks number one, yes, what are our00:01:46
risks that can lead to serious00:01:47
consequences on the market, the real estate market, then00:01:50
I’m still this black swan hanging00:01:52
let's get some new00:01:55
information00:02:01
so we see now the00:02:04
real estate market in China is in a coma and if we00:02:07
look at the chart we see that sales of00:02:10
new houses and there Holmes have00:02:14
gone into negative values since June 2100:02:20
so let me00:02:21
draw as usual I forgot,00:02:26
apparently I can hear Dima sat back from vacation, but the00:02:31
guys didn’t have another vacation left for long,00:02:33
so probably the next00:02:36
day I’ll give it one last go and the00:02:40
kids will go to school,00:02:43
so here it is, this happened,00:02:47
we see that00:02:48
home sales, that is, the sale of houses fell into a00:02:52
negative value and about piercings,00:02:54
that is, investments in real estate also00:02:57
dropped us, since then we are in a00:03:00
very negative scenario, and here00:03:01
we have an even greater drop happening00:03:03
before even in the twenty-first year, that is,00:03:07
sales in the real estate market then I00:03:09
Now it’s obvious what the main00:03:12
problems are, well, you’ve probably heard and00:03:14
I’ll retell the story for those who are not in the know.00:03:17
Recently,00:03:20
such a credit bubble has been developing in the Chinese market and it00:03:23
has reached incredible proportions.00:03:25
Now you can see on the chart in00:03:27
black this is our Morgue Sloans, that is,00:03:31
this mortgage loans and this is the balance, that00:03:35
is, these are loans that are issued specifically to00:03:37
builders, that is,00:03:40
housing producing companies, and we see that00:03:43
these, this market has reached 8, that is, 800:03:48
trillion dollars, that is, we are now00:03:49
talking here 40 trillion yuan, this is a00:03:53
morgue member and somewhere approximately 1200:03:56
trillion yuan this crushed the band00:03:58
corresponds to approximately the same amount of 800:04:00
trillion dollars there is all this yogi00:04:03
faces will not seem a little because these are00:04:06
seriously serious problems and what is the00:04:09
most important00:04:11
concern and for many00:04:14
many the alarm is that now00:04:19
we have such a mortgage boycott in00:04:22
China what is it connected with avaya on the finger I’ll00:04:25
literally try to explain and so in00:04:28
China00:04:29
there is such a national trait that it00:04:32
invests in real estate since China00:04:35
lived00:04:37
separately for a long time and the territory was00:04:42
no matter how much it changed, to be honest, that00:04:45
is, China, of course, the moment of recovery00:04:48
expanded and the territory on the territory of00:04:50
such modern China, in principle, it00:04:51
was formed00:04:53
a long time ago, maybe BC,00:04:55
I don’t know much about Chinese history, but00:04:58
I just saw the Chinese among Chinese00:05:01
bloggers, the Chinese have such a00:05:02
national trait that they dream of a00:05:04
house, that is, for them a home is the most00:05:06
important investment in this then, and if00:05:08
we look at the structure of investment,00:05:10
real estate has always been a priority over00:05:12
all other types of Mrs.00:05:21
so00:05:24
that00:05:25
everyone is so used to the fact that00:05:28
real estate prices are rising that00:05:30
products have appeared in which you kind of00:05:34
buy in advance a house that you built in00:05:36
the future, that is, like our types00:05:42
call00:05:44
primary construction of piri-piri00:05:46
parties,00:05:48
it was, well, like a new building, yes, that is,00:05:51
when we are investing in construction,00:05:53
but it is completely wounded, so when00:05:55
the press goes on, that is, pre-sales are00:05:58
not yet like this in the object does not yet exist in00:06:00
nature, but sales of apartments that will be00:06:04
on this site are already starting00:06:06
to sell, and not only have00:06:09
people found a buyer with their own money,00:06:12
so credit products also appeared,00:06:13
that is, people took out loans from banks00:06:17
on credit for purchases, this sight, that is, a00:06:20
product that does not yet exist,00:06:22
and this is how we see from the Morgin Show graph,00:06:25
these mortgage loans grew and grew and00:06:28
grew and grew and everything seemed to be fine but this is a00:06:31
pure pyramid because of course the00:06:33
builders00:06:34
opened new construction sites, including00:06:37
due to the fact that they00:06:39
again taught contributions and payments and the pretzels plant00:06:43
receives such a pyramid went on00:06:46
until it all reached some point,00:06:48
we saw it00:06:52
came to first of all, probably after the00:06:54
change in regulation, it was even00:06:58
covered on my channel, but00:07:02
this regulation forcibly went unnoticed00:07:04
was due to the fact that00:07:05
construction companies and I lowered, let’s00:07:10
say they lowered their leverage, that is, I they00:07:13
could not work on a larger leverage and00:07:15
this immediately caused such a stopper and this00:07:19
situation has worsened, what is the00:07:20
problem now is that people00:07:22
continue to pay for the mortgage,00:07:25
that is, they00:07:27
started there in the seventeenth year,00:07:30
they took a mortgage for a house that does not exist,00:07:33
it still does not exist or its00:07:35
construction is severely frozen, but they00:07:38
continue to pay for the mortgage and many00:07:40
investors think why the hell are we paying00:07:42
for something that may not be00:07:43
built at all, what’s the problem? This creates00:07:47
such a strong distrust in the system and they00:07:49
stop paying00:07:51
banks for mortgage loans and this00:07:54
causes a problem in the entire00:07:56
economic system because it’s one00:07:58
thing there are only developers and here00:08:00
banks can also suffer, that banks, in00:08:02
principle, worked according to this scheme, well, it seems00:08:05
like it has nothing to do with it, yes, that is, they00:08:07
have such a product for you, ok, you agree to the00:08:09
risks00:08:10
of unfinished construction, etc., but what do we have to do with it? We00:08:13
issue loans against construction,00:08:16
that is, they have read their risks, that is, in00:08:17
principle, the payers00:08:19
are solvent, but they do not want to pay00:08:22
for a pig in a poke, it is not clear whether it is being built00:08:25
or not completed, and these are the ones I00:08:27
briefly explained at a glance,00:08:31
and these are the00:08:34
mortgage boycotts that are now00:08:36
spreading throughout the social HIV networks00:08:38
from we see that the main ones are the00:08:43
top top top top top 5 provinces where00:08:48
these boycotts are happening and00:08:51
I see them on the screen, but I don’t understand them00:08:54
and we are interested in a hobby and maybe someone00:08:57
doesn’t, but it’s clear that this is happening according to the00:08:59
entire territory of China and mostly these are00:09:04
large cities00:09:07
near Beijing at a minimum and00:09:12
this can cause a chain reaction00:09:17
when00:09:18
people stop paying their mortgages,00:09:23
banks00:09:25
generally stop issuing new loans under the UFO in00:09:28
pu pu pu pu this is why the type of crits devil00:09:31
before so under-receives part of the financing00:09:33
and that the influx we saw investments00:09:35
decreased and the influx of money you you system00:09:37
decreased and they can complete the construction of housing,00:09:41
which also increased in price, tried to00:09:43
dance for construction, also increased, and00:09:45
even if banks stop00:09:48
opening new mortgage loans, then they will00:09:51
completely work out and behind them difficulties for the00:09:54
bank because after seeing such a situation,00:09:58
those who took out a mortgage say00:10:01
guys, you won’t pay anything,00:10:03
get out of the woods, and in this situation, I00:10:07
can cause an00:10:08
explosion of a bubble that is 800:10:13
trillion dollars in size, so for a minute, and even00:10:15
then it will be larger than 2008, that00:10:18
is this is a serious problem at the moment,00:10:22
and what is a possible solution to this crisis? I00:10:26
have read different points of view and one of the00:10:29
points is here, that is, these are already measures00:10:32
that are being proposed by the Chinese government to00:10:34
solve this problem: 1 mortgage00:10:36
holiday for buyers before the completion of00:10:38
construction, that is, it will be indicated that00:10:41
homebuyers' loans00:10:44
are exempt from mortgage payments00:10:46
until aging ends here, of00:10:48
course the bank is suffering because the banks00:10:51
issued the loan, they expected to make00:10:54
a profit, and now these payments will00:10:56
stop, what will happen to the banking00:10:58
system in this situation, I don’t know,00:10:59
maybe it will be financed, that is00:11:02
this can be done through the central bank,00:11:04
write in the comments, we have a lot of00:11:06
specialists, especially my mother00:11:09
became a krogan, maybe you00:11:13
understand this better, so tell me00:11:14
if this is possible, but probably yes, the second00:11:17
point is targeted credit lending to00:11:19
developers for the implementation of projects00:11:22
secured by land,00:11:23
here the00:11:26
law implies a project what if the00:11:29
bank issued a loan to the developer00:11:33
for a specific project and the developer00:11:36
fails, he is00:11:38
obliged to transfer to the bank the land he00:11:42
rented for the construction of the project and00:11:44
there is the most, most expensive thing for you00:11:46
to build and the bank can00:11:49
choose other contractors and I00:11:51
regret implementing this one before the old one that is,00:11:54
it turns out that it is moving into the 3rd part of the business,00:11:57
moving into the banking sector, the third00:11:59
point is the creation of a central bank00:12:01
fund for financing construction,00:12:02
it seems to me a realistic scenario00:12:04
that there is already such a practice of00:12:06
creating sovereign funds in China, there are00:12:08
pounds, an00:12:11
Asian infrastructure fund for infrastructure projects00:12:14
worth almost 400 billion. pumped up and, in00:12:17
principle, what prevents them from creating another00:12:19
fund, thereby pulling out from under the00:12:21
blow part of their investments in the00:12:23
American economy and00:12:25
directing it towards the00:12:27
completion of construction, but in00:12:30
this situation I will put the following point00:12:32
and the prices of developers, I do not see a situation00:12:35
in which the central bank will00:12:38
create a fund and let the developer00:12:41
steal it, I think that in this00:12:43
situation there will be strict rules of strict00:12:44
regulation; the slightest deviation from the00:12:47
rate of payment will deprive the developer of this00:12:50
object and in general it is possible that00:12:52
this construction company may be00:12:55
forcibly nationalized because00:12:57
it failed, that is, I think00:12:58
that there will be special conditions for00:12:59
interaction with this fund, but this is00:13:01
Samara stich on the scenario, a fund is created00:13:03
for quality money, developers are issued00:13:05
under very strict conditions this day so that00:13:07
the construction of00:13:09
those objects that began then, by the way,00:13:12
in this situation,00:13:15
home buyers00:13:17
can continue to pay mortgage00:13:21
payments because they they see that the situation00:13:25
is being resolved and construction continues,00:13:27
and then they will continue to pay00:13:30
the mortgage and then the banking system will not00:13:31
suffer, that is, this is the00:13:33
situation here, or is this the00:13:35
Soviet option still underway when almost the00:13:38
entire industry will be00:13:41
nationalized, it seems to me that rolling out the00:13:42
same option is quite realistic00:13:45
because the top 2 are at least this overgrown and00:13:47
another one they feel very bad about00:13:50
the developer and perhaps the government simply does not00:13:52
support them after that after00:13:54
nationalization it will create a fund00:13:57
to finance the completion of construction00:13:58
it will give this money to already nationalized00:14:01
companies and already under the control of00:14:03
the state under the strict control of the party00:14:04
will complete the construction of this housing and rent00:14:08
it out to its buyers, these are the options,00:14:11
that is, this is a problem, but it can00:14:13
either go according to a very bad scenario or the00:14:15
principle will dissolve gradually, at least00:14:18
mentally, there is no instant solution to the00:14:20
problem here either,00:14:24
ok,00:14:26
problem number two00:14:29
of the problem and 30 of the world economy the00:14:32
head of the bank00:14:35
GP Morgan, whose dream he loves so much, started talking about this in an article amp00:14:37
armageddon his name is a little bit00:14:39
his last name is not dimon dimon00:14:43
I don’t know which is correct, but for some reason it00:14:45
seems to me that he should be called Dimon, so00:14:48
he loves it so much, it’s really thin, he00:14:51
recently started too talk and he said00:14:53
that a00:14:54
recession in the world economy is quite00:14:57
likely,00:14:59
but he said that this is not the biggest00:15:02
problem at the moment, but what the00:15:04
big problem itself is, we will talk about it later in this00:15:07
review,00:15:09
so regarding the recession, we have00:15:13
data on fidelity investments, they00:15:15
publish a report every quarter about the00:15:19
economic state of business cycles and00:15:21
we see that this is the last damn quarter,00:15:23
that is, the third quarter of 2002, we have00:15:26
years to count, in their opinion, the United States is00:15:29
almost already approaching a recession,00:15:33
united kindom, the eurozone is already sliding into a00:15:36
recession, and China is already in a recession,00:15:38
it is gradually coming out of it is starting00:15:40
to emerge, that is, the dynamics are so far in the00:15:42
spring, the EU and the USA are slipping or have already00:15:46
entered a recession here, by the way, the00:15:48
time lag is quite large, so00:15:50
we can get the data already belatedly,00:15:53
China is already trying to rise, what to00:15:55
show articles data we see that at the00:16:00
moment China has moved to a hard00:16:05
[ music]00:16:06
weakening of its monetary policy,00:16:08
let me read today with you on the00:16:10
telegram channel posted00:16:12
the data and00:16:18
so the People's Bank of China lowered the main00:16:21
interest rates on bus loans00:16:24
and fixing, which was the second reduction00:16:27
this year as the board of directors00:16:29
became more active or to revive the demand00:16:31
for loans for Against the backdrop, however, not a single00:16:33
outbreak of avi 1900:16:37
and a protracted recession in the real estate market,00:16:39
that is, the situation with real estate is00:16:41
also worrying and we need to somehow00:16:42
push the economy a little so that the00:16:44
real estate market can also do so. but lived because in such a00:16:47
recumbent state it is even more00:16:49
difficult to manage than in any positive00:16:52
way, so it is stimulated00:16:53
from here, interest rates are reduced, reserves00:16:55
are reduced, the00:16:57
reserve ratio for banks and the00:17:00
issue of liquidity becomes more00:17:02
accessible, then here is a policy00:17:05
of monetary00:17:07
relief, weakening00:17:09
well and this corresponds precisely to the phase of the00:17:13
economy’s exit from recession, here while we have00:17:16
no weakening, we still00:17:18
exceed the queens00:17:21
both in the eurozone and the United States, and this will most likely00:17:25
ultimately lead to the official00:17:27
entry into recession although the states, at00:17:30
least the states are technically already in recession,00:17:33
many people write to me that the USA is already in a00:17:35
recession; indeed, if we look00:17:37
at the real GDP growth for the 1st 2nd quarter,00:17:40
they are negative, that is, two will give00:17:42
portal 30 in the zone that is considered a technical00:17:44
recession; however, there are still no00:17:46
negative data on the labor market and so00:17:49
on but today we’ll talk about this,00:17:50
negative trends are also emerging,00:17:52
that is, they can lead to a recession,00:17:54
we see, in fact, I will say that before00:17:57
2020 we were in a recession during this00:17:59
period, but we have already appeared there, well,00:18:01
here we are according to this schedule we are most likely all00:18:04
exactly rolling in just00:18:06
about their comments on this report the00:18:08
market stocks are entering a bear market and00:18:11
amid fears of growth above not 10000:18:13
inflation rates the US economy00:18:16
is in a late growth phase with a00:18:18
moderate risk of recession while00:18:20
Europe faces short-term00:18:21
risks recession and China can get out of a00:18:23
growth recession against the backdrop of increased00:18:26
political stimulation, that is,00:18:29
here they are betting that00:18:31
China will cope with the recession through00:18:33
economic stimulation when we see00:18:36
attempts to stimulate the US economy, that00:18:40
is, a transition to00:18:42
easing monetary policy there in00:18:45
fact you can say yes, even if they don’t00:18:46
admit in fact that the US economy00:18:49
is in recession or was now00:18:52
trying to00:18:53
get out00:18:55
okay, this concerns business cycles, as for the00:18:58
labor market in the USA has00:19:01
negative trends, I say that it does00:19:03
not yet reflect the recessive00:19:04
scenarios that are happening during00:19:06
The recession was the last one in 2020, our percentage is00:19:10
falling00:19:11
[music]00:19:12
percentage expect expected00:19:16
job hunting expectation there is an expectation00:19:19
that the reader will find a job and00:19:21
this is like the mood of the mood00:19:24
in the labor market and they are falling sharply this00:19:26
period is also growing sharply and00:19:29
Clarence was interfering that is, initial applications for00:19:31
unemployment benefits, because they00:19:33
increase sharply, and after they00:19:35
have increased sharply and we start here, there00:19:38
is no trade advertising, yes, first,00:19:42
our unemployment applications increase sharply,00:19:44
then the unemployment rate itself increases,00:19:48
which is logical, the same way for we00:19:52
have such a parameter as it is for Papain, that00:19:56
is, how many how many jobs are00:19:58
opened in the economy and it00:20:00
drops sharply, period everything falls at work, it00:20:03
starts to jump sharply and then it00:20:05
dissolves, but now what’s00:20:06
happening until we see that our00:20:09
unemployment is changing somehow00:20:12
is at low levels enough00:20:15
for its value of three and a00:20:17
half for historical values, but00:20:19
at the same time we see that I didn’t sew claims,00:20:22
it’s already slowly starting to rise from 1,00:20:25
that is, if there was00:20:27
some kind of short-term, like here there00:20:29
was the rise of Itachi okay, but here we are00:20:31
somewhere from April-May,00:20:36
these data are all higher higher higher higher it00:20:39
can then go at some time to a00:20:41
sharp acceleration, it00:20:43
was different because we remember00:20:45
how it was, it was just a sharp00:20:47
shutdown of the economy, that is, we were just00:20:49
cut off with one jerk, in general, in00:20:52
theory, all this should happen smoothly00:20:55
here, in principle, the expectation is so-so,00:20:58
here we also see a negative trend,00:21:00
that is, people are00:21:02
less and less expecting to find work,00:21:05
new jobs are opening, fewer and00:21:08
fewer applications, the unemployment stock00:21:10
is beginning to increase that is, the00:21:12
labor market begins to deteriorate a little, by the way, a00:21:15
serious deterioration in the labor market, on the contrary, the00:21:17
stock market can be perceived00:21:19
positively, it will help, this will lead to the fact that the00:21:23
Federal Reserve system recognizes00:21:25
that we are in a recession and moves on to a policy00:21:27
of stimulation, that is, all soft00:21:30
monetary policy, and this, as a rule, is00:21:32
always a reversal stock markets and00:21:34
upward movement because people are waiting for00:21:36
drugs, which we have already said a hundred times,00:21:38
this quantity and mitigation of new00:21:41
liquidity here, for now, it is00:21:44
the recognition of this fact that prevents the stock00:21:47
market from growing further. As for the00:21:51
next point about00:21:53
jobs, if we look at how much00:21:55
has recovered at all jobs, the fact00:21:57
that we have positive dynamics, we00:22:00
see that since00:22:03
2020, since February, that is, before the00:22:06
pandemic level, we have00:22:08
the number of jobs increased by 3200:22:11
thousand, which is not much, but this means that00:22:14
we00:22:15
have become, yes you have become, and the00:22:18
jobs that we lost during00:22:19
pins and now this is happening, but00:22:21
look at the structure, something00:22:24
has grown sharply; some jobs00:22:27
have appeared and some jobs00:22:29
have fallen sharply, that is, in other words, we got00:22:32
plus 32 ok, but we see that the economy is00:22:36
sharply restructuring at00:22:37
least the labor market should be restructured and00:22:39
we have a lot of losses in00:22:42
government00:22:44
jobs, we have very big losses00:22:47
in the00:22:48
so-called00:22:53
hospitality industry, that’s what they call it,00:22:56
hotel and casino, that’s all there,00:22:59
of course, we’re sitting there, very big losses, but also00:23:02
professional business service We00:23:04
have grown transport and00:23:07
such large large00:23:11
wholesale warehouses00:23:13
warehouse processes have also grown to here,00:23:16
in general, logistics has grown,00:23:19
professional business service and retail00:23:21
trade have grown, that is,00:23:23
such retail sales have also grown, I apologize,00:23:26
turn it off now, I00:23:34
just have the terminal turned on and it’s slowing down as00:23:37
the terminal was slowing down included,00:23:44
also take into account that there may00:23:46
be different conditions of the labor market in different industries,00:23:50
moving on, wages in the USA are growing,00:23:53
but00:23:54
look at00:23:57
this picture, green, this00:24:01
shows corporate professor capital,00:24:05
that is, the growth of00:24:07
corporate income per00:24:11
unit, well, per person, let’s say so00:24:15
people, we see that now this00:24:18
level is around 50,00:24:21
it has increased sharply in 2020, while our00:24:24
salaries are also growing, but not as much as00:24:28
corporate income is growing.00:24:31
The distribution is usually as we believe00:24:34
according to the theory of labor value; we00:24:37
believe that income00:24:41
is distributed among the labor force00:24:45
labor force and capital of the00:24:49
corporation and their income, and now it turns out that00:24:53
this part is growing faster than the00:24:56
income of the labor force, that is,00:25:00
usually of the population, we see this based on the00:25:02
dynamics, see the average00:25:06
median xl, that is, the average current00:25:10
salary level in the USA is about00:25:13
17 dollars per hour00:25:15
here is this graph and we see that it00:25:20
lags far behind corporate incomes,00:25:23
which have grown significantly here, and00:25:26
we also had a sharp increase in inflation during00:25:30
this period, in general, see for yourself how to00:25:33
interpret the graph in this column00:25:35
specifically shows that corporate00:25:37
incomes are growing faster than labor00:25:40
incomes, but how much is this the problem is00:25:44
this graph gives us more information,00:25:46
it shows that wages are rising,00:25:52
wages are growing from 2000 of00:25:56
whom nasa sdo pandemic level, it00:25:59
grew by 21 percent, wages but at the same00:26:03
time inflation from the same period increased00:26:06
by three hundred eighty-seven percent, but00:26:08
it is clear that he was there it was too low00:26:10
there, it was about two percent an hour, it is00:26:12
about 9 percent, here you are00:26:14
three hundred percent before, but the less so in terms of00:26:16
the rate, obviously in terms of the rate of growth, inflation00:26:19
is happening faster than the growth of wages and00:26:22
this leads to the fact that real incomes of00:26:26
the population00:26:27
fall, this leads to a reduction in the00:26:30
ability to buy to a reduction in00:26:34
savings, we have talked about this many times00:26:36
already in these reviews, I did not00:26:38
repeat the same slides; this00:26:41
leads to a reduction to a00:26:44
sharp increase in credit because people just00:26:46
sometimes need a loan to meet00:26:49
their current needs, and the credit00:26:51
grows as a general loan and a loan with00:26:54
this type, our microcredit creed00:26:57
on credit cards, this is a very00:27:00
high-yield income loan that00:27:04
is highly unprofitable for the working00:27:06
population and it is also starting to color00:27:09
because the population usually has no collateral and00:27:11
they have to resist such a loan00:27:13
to cover their needs prices have increased00:27:15
wages are growing significantly by a lot of things,00:27:16
obviously even according to this schedule, this is all a00:27:18
big problem that will ultimately00:27:20
lead to what will most likely lead to a00:27:23
recession because at some point00:27:25
prices have risen so much that people00:27:27
cannot pay back and there is a sharp00:27:29
drop in purchasing power00:27:32
begins industrial00:27:35
activity is reduced, that is,00:27:37
production is reduced, and if good00:27:40
production is started, people are laid off;00:27:43
production is reduced and sales are00:27:45
reduced, that is, in the sales sector,00:27:47
layoffs also occur because of00:27:49
this and sales activity also00:27:53
decreases; sales fall and sales begin to00:27:56
fall in stock and warehouses because00:27:59
stock is in warehouses00:28:00
grow when the industrial ones work at00:28:03
full capacity and the segment begins to00:28:05
accelerate00:28:06
when sales do not keep up with the rate of00:28:09
production growth, well, this is a crisis of00:28:12
production in the classical classical00:28:14
form, now we see probably not even a00:28:16
crisis of overproduction, but a crisis00:28:19
in the purchasing power of the population, this00:28:21
is expressed as a real lag in00:28:24
income of the population from inflation and in00:28:28
people’s mood because everything that’s00:28:30
happening in the world now, we’ll talk about it to them too,00:28:32
but it doesn’t add any kind of00:28:35
consumer hysteria to people that they need to buy00:28:38
10 iPhones, turnover people think like that, damn it,00:28:40
other times it’s necessary to00:28:44
tighten the esata a little, well, [ __ ] no I’ll have a lot of00:28:48
new leaks to interfere with because00:28:49
everything is already on its way out tomorrow I’ll be fired anyway00:28:52
in my business things are so-so00:28:55
even though the analysts there say but I00:28:58
know that things are so-so so not00:29:01
today or tomorrow I’ll be fired I’ll still00:29:02
do it This is a mortgage, I will lose all my money,00:29:04
so in short, consumer activity00:29:06
begins to decline, okay, and00:29:10
we see rising prices in the United States, which is the00:29:13
main threat to the economy, and it has been00:29:16
discussed many times, in addition to the fact that it is00:29:19
growing very sharply, it is growing according to00:29:22
approximately the same scenario as it was in 70 7500:29:24
years and we will talk about this today,00:29:25
that is, the reason for their approximately similar00:29:30
main problems of inflation is that there00:29:32
is such a00:29:35
multiplier effect, how00:29:36
long will we be in this00:29:38
inflation, here I write that if00:29:40
inflation averages 9 percent00:29:43
over the next eight years00:29:45
able to buy 100 thousand dollars will drop to a00:29:46
level of less than 50 dollars, that is, people00:29:48
can lose a huge00:29:51
part of their savings00:29:54
simply if they are in inflation00:29:57
does not invest this moment in some00:29:58
way, although inflation is also invested, then there is00:30:00
another rebus about this too, everything is not let's00:30:04
talk about the problem of high00:30:07
inflation, that's exactly what it is, what if it lasts for00:30:10
6 months, that's one thing, but if it00:30:12
lasts for a long time, like it was in the 70s and 80s, it's been00:30:15
there for a long time and whether it's been there for a long time00:30:18
and it always leads to a recession, we00:30:21
see it here here, yes, this rise in prices00:30:25
led to a recession, then a new rise in prices00:30:28
led to a process, a new rise in prices led to a00:30:30
recession, and only when we are at00:30:32
some low rate of price growth00:30:35
for a long time in a recession, only a00:30:38
jump in GDP occurs in prices again, a recession, there is00:30:42
some kind of relationship here - then there is a certain one,00:30:45
okay,00:30:47
so according to inflation, today we00:30:50
did a00:30:52
review today, I gave you a QR code, and if00:30:56
you are on TV and watching, you can castle yours with the00:30:58
usual one, now you point it00:31:00
like a camera and a link immediately appears for you, you00:31:03
can follow this link and read00:31:05
this article, I’ll tell you00:31:09
what’s happening on the market and00:31:14
European gas, that is, we see that00:31:17
there is 77 percent pumped gas storage facilities,00:31:19
this is good, yes00:31:23
we see how it was lagging behind the00:31:25
schedule, how to read this graph00:31:28
[music]00:31:29
clockwise like this you need00:31:32
to read that in January we were far00:31:34
behind the norm that was, that is,00:31:37
we had00:31:39
about 50 percent downloaded, so we were far00:31:43
behind, but gradually we gradually00:31:46
caught up with this norm and at the00:31:48
moment we are within the pace00:31:51
that was the average of 2017 up to 1 year that00:31:55
is, we now have 77 percent of the00:31:57
gas storage capacity filled and from the00:31:59
point of view of the target, 80 percent, that00:32:03
is, we need to pump in eight percent, that00:32:05
is, we are in principle a patient, obviously until00:32:06
November until November until November, I think that00:32:10
we pumped00:32:12
with Europeans and we were not busy then I was not00:32:15
in Pandora games will download they download in00:32:19
their storages 3 percent is obvious but00:32:22
by the way for some and00:32:25
some countries have expressed a desire to even00:32:28
exceed this target mark00:32:30
there are 90 92 percent for the feast countries00:32:32
like Germany00:32:34
do not want more because they00:32:36
understand that these reserves are00:32:39
this time it may not even be enough for the whole00:32:42
winter, what is the problem? Usually these00:32:45
reserves are needed to00:32:53
stabilize the00:32:55
increased needs of the00:32:58
population in general, to the economy in this00:33:01
energy carrier is inserted as00:33:03
usually happens from the average thousand to create the00:33:06
first year, here it is, the full full00:33:08
load00:33:10
of the gas storage00:33:12
is full 90 percent almost until November,00:33:15
winter begins December January February and00:33:18
we see that the gas storage begins to00:33:21
decrease sharply, it decreases sharply00:33:24
until April, here the heat00:33:27
will stop and they begin to pump it back00:33:29
into the storage for the winter, that00:33:33
is, it is in the gas storages and there is a00:33:36
buffer such yes, that is, something that makes up for00:33:39
excess demand, but this assumes that at00:33:43
this moment in the winter we have00:33:46
gas flows operating at full capacity, which, well, according to00:33:49
contracts, they do not stop for the feast.00:33:51
We have Gazprom companies that00:33:54
supply gas to Europe via the Nord00:33:57
Stream, one also supplies via Yamal00:34:01
also supplies the Blue Stream through the Turkish stream,00:34:03
that is, there are several00:34:05
branches there, that is, for example, they00:34:07
continue to supply there, even maybe00:34:09
within 90 percent of their00:34:12
capacity, and even this is not enough for00:34:15
consumption because the Europeans00:34:18
come from gas storages to get a little bit,00:34:20
but what will happen if during the winter00:34:25
in communication 0 percent will be pumped from00:34:28
from Russia from Russia and this is 150 billion00:34:30
cubic meters or there it will be reduced to 2000:34:33
percent00:34:34
I think that what I think I talked00:34:38
to a specialist did not say that even if the00:34:41
storage is 150 percent for the00:34:44
entire recording there won’t be enough of them in the winter, that is, if you00:34:47
just sit on them, it’s clear that they are00:34:49
now sharply reducing00:34:52
gas consumption compared to Europe; they have increased00:34:56
coal generation; they00:34:58
have reduced00:35:01
the production of fertilizers;00:35:04
in short, several several measures have been00:35:07
taken; in general, they00:35:09
have actually reduced gas consumption because of00:35:13
this, and they the opportunity has arisen, given the00:35:15
rather meager supply of gas to the00:35:17
European gas market, to continue to00:35:20
replenish our gas00:35:21
storage facilities for the winter at the required pace, that’s what will happen in the winter,00:35:24
let’s see winter from the camera, we’ll see, I do00:35:26
n’t know what’s going on in other countries on00:35:30
different sides, and we see that there are the00:35:33
main countries, they are basically now00:35:36
almost 70 90 percent filled from00:35:39
from France filled their gas00:35:41
storage facilities by 90 percent and Germany by00:35:43
80 Italy by 79 and the Netherlands by 72 these are the00:35:47
four main countries and00:35:49
strictly speaking that is, the storage is all00:35:51
in order the00:35:52
rest that the rest we have in different ways00:35:56
countries where Austria at the feast is only00:35:58
62 percent behind schedule,00:36:00
there are wounds where 55 percent and feast Latvia,00:36:04
well, now they have nowhere to replenish them,00:36:06
to be honest, yes, they have, in my opinion, in00:36:09
Lithuania, the last time they were there, I was confused that, wait, the00:36:12
card was simply not familiar to the cards00:36:14
it’s clear what comes from then,00:36:18
but00:36:20
not in such volumes when you would have had00:36:24
current consumption covered and00:36:27
you could also send it to reserve, and here00:36:29
they still don’t have the opportunity to actively00:36:32
replenish their reserves in00:36:36
Portugal one hundred percent, and now00:36:38
you see almost all of them their reserves00:36:41
lead to sixty-eighty00:36:44
percent of the load, but at what cost, yes, that’s it,00:36:49
the price is 0, at the00:36:53
moment the price of natural gas in Europe is a00:36:56
Dutch hop and we see that the00:36:58
historical maximum is at what’s more,00:37:00
after a military operation00:37:05
or war began, whoever passes I won’t00:37:07
convince either one or the other of the opposite, in00:37:09
general, such a double term,00:37:13
we had a sharp jump here00:37:16
now, prices are strong, much higher than00:37:20
when she was the first to shoot after the00:37:22
start of these actions and these actions, to00:37:29
what extent does this lead to the lack of00:37:30
competitiveness of the European the00:37:33
industrial economy is experiencing00:37:35
big problems and00:37:37
I don’t know, but I’m00:37:42
99.9 percent sure that the European economy00:37:45
is now in recession,00:37:47
this is at least obvious to me for now,00:37:50
because in the current situation, with00:37:52
such energy prices, you still00:37:54
have to understand the problems that the Europeans are not facing they00:37:57
just lost cheap sources of00:37:59
energy and resources in general, they00:38:03
also lost a very large sales market, the same00:38:06
Simmons and the same banks there and so on,00:38:10
they received losses, they now do not00:38:12
make enough money on the Russian market, that is, it00:38:14
turns out to be a double blow and it is obvious that in00:38:17
this situation the income will be meager00:38:19
because they are opened by an increase in00:38:22
expenses, an increase in production costs and00:38:24
are cut off by a fall in real sales in00:38:27
their traditional sales markets, and of00:38:29
course in this situation00:38:31
it is difficult to expect an increase in00:38:34
corporate income; they will fall sharply,00:38:36
maybe they are going into the negative zone, and00:38:37
at the same time we still have inflation, which is being00:38:40
driven down by 6 to 7 to 9 percent,00:38:41
of course,00:38:44
it will be very difficult to surpass this inflation, which means that real00:38:47
GDP growth in Europe is negative, these are signs of a00:38:51
recession, that is, I can state00:38:52
that there are still recessions in Europe now00:38:59
neos often ask mono what do you have there,00:39:02
what is your electricity situation So I00:39:04
specifically took out my00:39:07
electricity bill, I have a family of four00:39:08
people and yes our prices have increased but00:39:12
it is not significant00:39:13
we see that this is the00:39:20
current year of the anion exchanger the year yes this is the00:39:25
current and this is the interior that is the00:39:27
previous year that is the orange00:39:30
previous this is the current year we We see that00:39:32
somewhere00:39:34
here we were the same even less for the00:39:37
current year, and somewhere here00:39:39
we have prices that are consistently higher00:39:44
than the previous year, but it was obvious,00:39:47
but you see this growth is not significant for00:39:50
me, this is not a problem,00:39:56
but there is a nuance I after all, it’s not the European Union and00:39:59
for us the price of gas is a00:40:02
significant factor because we don’t have a00:40:04
gas economy, we don’t have gas energy, we have00:40:06
hydropower, and we get it from00:40:09
from in Spanish, not hydroelectric power stations, prices in00:40:14
general are probably growing for natural00:40:16
energy, but with taking into account the fact that these are00:40:19
hydroelectric power plants, that they do not have00:40:20
gas costs, that these are not gas00:40:22
turbines, as they stand there, and thermal energy00:40:25
is precisely idris, that is, I think that there00:40:29
should not have been strong growth in00:40:33
some regions such as Greece,00:40:35
Italy, Germany, there is a price tag there especially00:40:38
industrial facilities, I just personally know a00:40:41
person who is in00:40:43
Germany00:40:44
and Germany in Germany, he has a00:40:49
small production and bakeries00:40:52
and his check has increased three times, but00:40:56
it has become noticeably more expensive than before00:41:01
and00:41:02
perhaps at some point this00:41:05
production is simply not profitable00:41:07
Moreover, the supply of this energy, the00:41:09
supply of this type of fuel is also00:41:12
limited by the fact that the00:41:14
economy mode is switched on, that is, there are interruptions in00:41:17
supplies, no energy is00:41:19
not significant for you or for all00:41:22
locals, I think for all locals it00:41:23
is not significant, it doesn’t matter as long as we have00:41:25
specifically our region not a problem,00:41:29
I was in France, let’s take a few words00:41:32
away from the current situation a little in the current00:41:35
program, I was in France, it would seem there is00:41:38
also a crisis problem there, so on, but00:41:41
as I said, prices have increased significantly,00:41:44
they have increased significantly for accommodation, prices have increased in00:41:47
cafes, that is, I really felt it00:41:51
really although again, it’s not a problem to change,00:41:53
well, it’s significant, there’s00:41:55
probably 40 percent there, and00:42:00
still people arrived, that is, not a single one, all the00:42:03
accommodations were full, I couldn’t even get accommodations,00:42:08
I usually take accommodations in a00:42:10
comfortable cottage like this, I00:42:12
couldn’t find it this time, everything was00:42:15
occupied and00:42:16
accommodated simpler and still it00:42:18
cost a day more than I00:42:21
stayed in a more comfortable00:42:23
cottage last year, it happens like this00:42:26
in a restaurant and you can’t get in without an appointment all00:42:29
around, well, all, all, all, all the tables are occupied,00:42:33
everyone eats up on these big checks, that is, in00:42:36
principle, they are looking for what they are very00:42:38
clear to me now they said bit, well, it’s00:42:40
clear smoke diman like you’re comparing00:42:43
there, not all people travel there,00:42:45
only the rich come and the appearance of the kidneys is00:42:47
that the Czechs have grown by 20 percent,00:42:49
probably there is truth in this, just like00:42:52
in Russia in France, not everyone can00:42:54
afford to travel,00:42:55
especially in the summer in August, this is the00:43:00
holiday season and there the most expensive prices in general00:43:02
can be here in August, if00:43:04
someone didn’t know August, in France in00:43:07
Spain almost half the country goes on vacation00:43:09
there the most expensive prices so during this00:43:11
period many they prefer to either work,00:43:14
that is, those who don’t have enough money, and00:43:16
go on vacation, for example in September or00:43:19
there in July in June, that is, another month00:43:22
when it will be cheaper, I don’t00:43:24
know, in general, I haven’t felt it yet,00:43:28
okay, let’s move on, so that’s00:43:32
what to do, yes00:43:34
stock markets they can be a00:43:37
tool against inflation let's00:43:38
look at this slide I can make it00:43:40
a little larger I'll turn it on so that it does00:43:42
n't matter to you they are important00:43:46
look here the s&p 500 index is compared00:43:49
that is we compare the growth of the00:43:53
s&p 500 index with the growth of the chain this is the00:43:57
consumer price index starting from 98 years before the00:44:02
color segment reflects00:44:06
the return there are performances in Russian00:44:08
on the return of the S&P 500 index,00:44:11
taking into account the00:44:13
real rate taking into account00:44:16
inflation, that is, minus this increase in00:44:20
consumer prices, that is, where it00:44:22
overtakes it,00:44:23
inflation indices, that is, on the collective farm, where00:44:26
it overtakes it and where else the00:44:28
real ritorna does not overtake this, taking into account inflation,00:44:31
it is read into the growth of the index, so we00:44:33
see that since 9800:44:36
the index has had some periods where it00:44:40
lost inflation, here they are red00:44:44
noise for the main time, it still00:44:46
wins the nation at the moment, it00:44:48
wins a lot at night by three hundred00:44:50
percent, that is, looking at this00:44:52
graph, we can say yes, indeed,00:44:53
stock markets can be an00:44:55
anti-inflationary instrument, that00:44:57
during inflation they are much more00:44:59
performer in this there is a kind of logic00:45:02
why the stock markets of this company before the00:45:06
company company00:45:09
they have income00:45:12
income which consists of in essence,00:45:19
revenue revenue is now in a collective farm way up to revenue00:45:22
minus00:45:24
cost cost00:45:26
cost price that's00:45:29
what rising prices mean rising prices is00:45:32
of course an increase in costs but also an increase in00:45:35
revenue because prices themselves are also00:45:37
rising, so if a company is able to00:45:39
maintain this balance then it does00:45:44
not lose in income and this is reflected in00:45:47
the growth of the s&p 500 index because the00:45:51
s&p 500 index reflects the growth of the company that is00:45:54
included in it, there is00:45:55
logic here, but there is a nuance,00:45:59
by the way, look here by color, here is00:46:01
10, an00:46:04
explanation of how many percent it00:46:07
beats inflation,00:46:12
but there is a nuance,00:46:14
look at inflation, yes we are now00:46:17
We are at the maximum in the last 4000:46:19
years, but what is much more important00:46:22
is that this type of inflation is very similar00:46:25
to this type of inflation, remember in 7 and 4 800:46:28
if anyone doesn’t remember there was a fuel00:46:31
crisis. yes, oil prices rose sharply00:46:34
due to the conflict between Israel and00:46:36
Saudi Arabia, in my opinion, or if00:46:38
there is now I don’t remember exactly from00:46:41
some00:46:42
producing countries, and they announced a00:46:47
boycott on oil supplies and oil prices00:46:50
rose sharply and this was the period such00:46:52
high inflation because prices00:46:55
began to rise sharply and they remained at a very00:46:57
high level for quite a long time, about 1000:47:00
years, it was a decade of high high00:47:03
inflation and here we are now for reasons that is, the00:47:06
reasons for inflation now are not00:47:08
that our economy has warmed up greatly,00:47:10
but we have a strong00:47:12
consumer mood, we have a00:47:14
consumer boom, we are all consuming00:47:16
like crazy no we see a beard drives00:47:18
mood at the lowest00:47:19
values we have inflation due to the growth from00:47:23
irzhik due to the increase in costs we have00:47:25
increased delivery transport our fuel has increased00:47:27
we have all this that has grown up, that00:47:29
is, we have, in principle, a similar scenario00:47:31
that was here and now if we00:47:34
look again, we saw00:47:36
this picture here and the last period,00:47:38
but if we look at the same picture00:47:40
but longer periods from and take00:47:44
this period of the seventieth year,00:47:47
we will see that during this period, that is, if00:47:50
we had invested at the beginning of the period of00:47:53
high inflation in the seventieth year and00:47:56
invested the bunker until almost 90, we00:48:00
would have lost to inflation throughout this period,00:48:04
you see, we were losing to inflation,00:48:08
that is, this spot turns out00:48:11
shows us that the00:48:14
stock market is an anti-friction00:48:17
instrument, but not in all cases there are00:48:20
scenarios such as these and which now,00:48:22
in my opinion, are very similar to the current one where the00:48:24
market is not an anti-friction00:48:27
scenario, they can lose greatly,00:48:29
which is logical because here the00:48:33
company cannot cope with00:48:37
such sharp an increase in the cost of an00:48:41
increase in the cost, yes, because00:48:44
here fuel is growing significantly and you00:48:47
can’t shift it completely to00:48:49
the consumer, why because their incomes are00:48:52
not growing at such a significant pace, we have00:48:56
now seen this, that is, inflation00:48:57
is growing without going faster than the real00:49:00
incomes of the population, which means our00:49:03
revenue is not growing so quickly with a very00:49:05
rapid increase in cost, the same00:49:08
formula for revenue00:49:10
minus cost, it grows much00:49:14
faster as revenue grows and this00:49:17
leads to a decrease in income,00:49:19
which leads to but either a lack of00:49:22
growth on Yandex, usually this is some kind of00:49:24
big sidetrack or even a slight00:49:26
decrease or even growth, well, sluggish, if at the00:49:29
same time it grew by 4 percent and00:49:31
inflation during this period was eight00:49:33
percent, it is clear that we lost our fathers,00:49:36
and00:49:38
this spot just says so, but00:49:41
what about other markets, what should we do? in00:49:43
this situation00:49:44
maybe then gold and00:49:46
indeed if we look at00:49:52
too much red we play too many00:49:55
pairs but when we lose but I’ll00:49:57
just play at a time when we don’t have00:49:59
very high inflation look we have00:50:02
eight tenths started like this00:50:04
even where- then closer to 2000,00:50:06
such deflationary moments appeared and if we had00:50:08
invested in the00:50:12
gold market in 1970, 1050, of course, by00:50:17
2020, well, almost throughout this entire00:50:19
period, we would have lost to inflation, we are00:50:24
losing to inflation because there the peak was00:50:26
80 g but if we had invested 70 at the beginning of00:50:31
this period and00:50:32
came out even now, we would have won,00:50:36
that is, during this period there was00:50:38
such a sharp jump in gold with such an00:50:41
increase in inflation that this would be enough for00:50:43
even the00:50:44
current moment of inflation not to catch up with the00:50:47
rate of00:50:48
growth in prices for gold and00:50:52
this means that this period the little blue ones00:50:55
show that before gold in this particular00:50:58
scenario, specifically in this window, it can00:51:00
be an anti-inflationary instrument and00:51:03
it does not behave very well during the period00:51:06
when our inflation is average and the00:51:09
market is growing and00:51:13
in this situation it loses to inflation00:51:16
as not strange Peter00:51:18
okay, what else could there be then00:51:21
real estate and real estate in this00:51:23
regard looks most probably00:51:25
optimal except for one00:51:26
comment00:51:29
there is either you would have invested in the00:51:32
year ninety, right here in00:51:36
2000 we would definitely have overtaken00:51:39
inflation if you had invested in 200000:51:42
year, we would definitely have overtaken you, and00:51:46
even if you had invested here at the00:51:48
peak of the dot-com bubble in 2007, you would00:51:53
still have overtaken00:51:55
inflation at the moment, well, it’s true that for a long time the choice00:51:57
was inferior in pace, only here you have00:51:59
already come out ahead, but even the worst00:52:03
the scenario shows that you would still00:52:05
overtake inflation, and if you invested in00:52:07
any at any point there 2000 there 1300:52:10
14 16 18 20 choice everywhere you would overtake00:52:14
inflation, that is, before real estate00:52:16
is one of the best00:52:17
anti-inflationary instruments on the market,00:52:20
this is shown by statistics00:52:26
okay, let's let's talk about what00:52:31
possible solutions to this crisis,00:52:34
after some time, inflation will decrease and we00:52:37
can move on to a stimulated economy,00:52:39
these are the consequences of why dimon is the00:52:42
same and we blind the body through says that00:52:44
inflation is not the biggest problem00:52:46
because we have gone through00:52:49
a recession a hundred times and the site is not the best the problem is00:52:51
that we just went through recessions and every race of the00:52:54
entire previous recession ended with a00:52:56
subsequent update, at most it’s just00:52:58
a matter of time we need to we can fall00:53:00
somewhere at some level00:53:04
but the wide market again the wide market00:53:07
some companies will end their00:53:09
existence don’t worry about the recession00:53:11
if you are engaged only petting00:53:13
here will be careful, but if you00:53:15
invest in a wide market,00:53:18
they are always updated this property, but I don’t00:53:21
know the statistical properties, we can00:53:23
say that it will always be I don’t know, I00:53:25
can’t say, but at least00:53:27
statistics have shown that we have never00:53:28
gone into a recession didn’t go out and00:53:30
update the historical maximum, so00:53:32
this is a small problem, I think that if00:53:35
we admit that this is a recession, we will00:53:38
move much faster to growth in the stock00:53:40
market because at the moment we will fall due to the00:53:43
fact that damn recessions are all about all the00:53:46
problems, then we will sharply begin a reversal00:53:48
at least the stock markets are waiting00:53:50
for the Fed to start00:53:54
easing monetary policy before this is the00:53:58
needle, or00:53:59
that is, you just have to wait for the time00:54:01
when it all starts00:54:03
to unfold again, the00:54:05
third problem is that this is the big one,00:54:09
regretting it 2 I’m worried about this, this is some kind of00:54:12
global military conflict and00:54:16
here, of course, we have the most important thing now,00:54:20
besides not the most important thing, no, still not00:54:23
the most important thing, but one of the problems is00:54:26
Taiwan,00:54:27
let me now00:54:30
touch on politics a little, dear,00:54:33
I can immediately say that this is not a channel about00:54:34
politics and let’s not interfere too much00:54:36
about this and00:54:38
I’m just expressing such general things that00:54:41
concern me as investors, first of all,00:54:44
what is happening now between China and the USA,00:54:48
there is an increase in rates, a constant00:54:51
increase in rates, an increase in rates and this00:54:53
could lead to the fact that it00:54:57
will actually be00:54:59
profitable for China to take Taiwan back,00:55:03
why I will explain not everyone knows this00:55:07
statistically everyone knows attacks on China over the00:55:11
past 400 years00:55:14
began with intervention, that is,00:55:17
first on Taiwan and you in Taiwan00:55:19
began your intervention, that00:55:22
is, Taiwan is an important00:55:24
strategic military point, which is why it is so00:55:27
important, in addition to this, there is also a00:55:31
trade route here, and there are also00:55:34
trade routes before Japan, South00:55:38
Korea, that is,00:55:40
by blocking Taiwan and taking it under its00:55:43
wing, that is, China steel becomes the00:55:46
main controller of this trade route,00:55:49
so00:55:53
here is another important point that who wants00:55:57
more of this conflict, in my opinion, at the00:56:00
moment there is an00:56:02
assumption that this conflict wants a00:56:05
process including the USA, I don’t know00:56:07
why there might actually be some kind of kamikazes there already00:56:10
because I’m00:56:11
really scared, but that’s all after the00:56:14
action that the00:56:17
sequence before says that00:56:19
they are consistently provoking them,00:56:21
first they are launching a trade war00:56:24
against China, oh well, God bless him00:56:26
competition then they start these00:56:28
provocations with Nancy Pelosi when she00:56:30
flies there,00:56:31
obviously understanding what the reaction will be,00:56:34
obviously not giving any real00:56:38
bonuses, okay, it would be real00:56:40
politics, it’s just to spite China, yes, we’ll00:56:42
just eat it, or to spite China, that is, it’s00:56:45
obvious who is the provocateur of this the situation in00:56:48
China has already00:56:50
reacted to this, someone turned a deaf ear to it,00:56:54
well, like China, they swallowed,00:56:57
now they moved on, in fact, there are no00:56:59
problems there, including for the00:57:03
Americans, because for example, China00:57:05
refused to build a large battery factory,00:57:10
which they wanted to build,00:57:13
this could lead to the fact that if00:57:16
further relations are00:57:18
torn,00:57:19
sanctions will most likely be imposed on China,00:57:22
or China itself will be on the bed of sanctions on Nan00:57:25
Pernod USA and will ban00:57:27
the supply of American companies, for example,00:57:30
components for the production of batteries and00:57:33
electric cars; this is now the00:57:36
group's largest market, China and the00:57:38
largest largest suppliers such the00:57:40
batteries are also Chinese and00:57:42
this will lead to the fact that the00:57:45
United States will begin to lag behind in this race for a00:57:49
promising new transport market,00:57:51
well, it is clear that in Taiwan cheese is definitely the00:57:55
main floor of Prudnikova, we also00:57:57
know this and00:57:59
any such conflict can00:58:00
provoke00:58:03
significant disruptions in the supply chain and00:58:06
significantly in Capri of the global economy,00:58:08
China itself is an essential link in the00:58:11
supply chain, if suddenly these00:58:14
provocations lead to the fact that00:58:17
China will begin some kind of active action00:58:19
an hour while only military training is underway, and the00:58:21
shadow war can be found near the bombing of00:58:24
Taiwan, that is, the fighter jet enters there00:58:26
from 90 to this is what it comes to,00:58:29
well, this could lead to the fact that the00:58:32
heat will impose sanctions on China, it may00:58:35
not be as tough as on Russia, but00:58:37
this can lead to this and this will00:58:39
lead to a severe rupture of the kidneys of the00:58:42
post of the carcass, which is the main00:58:43
production component in the world,00:58:47
what will this lead to Of course, to a recession, to a00:58:50
shutdown of the economy, and at some point in00:58:53
China, you can say guys, but I have00:58:55
nothing to lose,00:58:56
then I will take Taiwan and00:58:59
then a real00:59:00
military conflict00:59:01
may unfold for you; this military conflict may drag00:59:04
on to what they said that they will00:59:06
defend their interests in this region,00:59:08
but this is 1 2 in my opinion 1 2 or 3 okay,00:59:15
top 3, that is, two sides from the top 3 in terms of00:59:18
military potential in the world, which00:59:21
could result in a full-scale00:59:22
military action of this. number one,00:59:26
it is clear that this problem interests us most of00:59:29
all, what is happening now00:59:30
in Ukraine and00:59:33
while the stakes are only increasing, the00:59:36
supply of weapons to Ukraine is00:59:38
intensifying, this is what I see, yes, Russia is00:59:41
starting to00:59:43
tighten its rhetoric,00:59:46
it is already starting to00:59:49
take actions that, well, you can’t recognize00:59:53
provocations, but this increases the stakes, for00:59:57
example supply of strategic00:59:59
weapons to01:00:00
your outpost in Kaliningrad, which01:00:06
will destabilize this situation a little deep because01:00:08
when you have it here, yes,01:00:12
this is certainly not the best, there will be01:00:15
units, let’s say so, if I01:00:17
were military Kaliningrad, somewhere01:00:19
here I don’t remember where it is01:00:22
somewhere here somewhere near Poland and Lithuania,01:00:25
but this one is just an urban01:00:27
area, but it is clear that this was the01:00:32
best target for an attack, yes, that is, it01:00:34
can be attacked quickly, but what01:00:36
will attack attack will be01:00:38
strategic forces in that including what01:00:41
can simply lead to the launch of some kind of01:00:43
intercontinental missiles and01:00:46
with all that it entails, plus now01:00:50
supplying daggers there, who doesn’t know this is a01:00:54
supersonic weapon, it is not very not01:00:57
very01:00:58
dangerous in that there are points of view of01:01:00
the potential in which it can cause damage,01:01:03
yes, that is, it usually the weapon is essentially an01:01:05
ordinary01:01:07
ordinary projectile, but it flies at a very01:01:11
high speed and while01:01:15
NATO countries do not have the ability01:01:18
to hit such targets, that is, it is01:01:21
like a sniper rifle that can01:01:23
hit any target anywhere, by01:01:25
and large, if you have the means01:01:27
delivery you can live to hit them01:01:30
with a fairly high accuracy and at the same time01:01:33
burn out that it doesn’t intercept what01:01:36
this will lead to but imagine let’s01:01:38
just imagine the situation now it’s01:01:39
starting to escalate01:01:42
I’m not just imagining the situation it’s a01:01:44
fact history we are being closed now visas01:01:47
Latvia Lithuania is closing visa Poland to01:01:51
Ukraine Naturally, some01:01:54
counter-attack actions begin,01:01:55
then01:01:57
NATO forces appear, which,01:02:02
by the way, in Poland, they are becoming more and01:02:03
more active, Finland is not01:02:05
becoming more active, that’s just what I see,01:02:07
yes,01:02:09
here too we have garrisons, for01:02:12
example, the invasion of01:02:14
Belarus begins, and here are the regions, for example,01:02:18
some destroyers came, but I don’t know, they01:02:20
can’t enter the Baltic Sea here, well,01:02:22
maybe some aircraft carriers came to the Baltic Sea, you01:02:25
know, with daggers, probably as a01:02:28
safety measure,01:02:30
they can again sink an aircraft carrier, for example,01:02:32
trying if there is a flood, a flood, this means a01:02:35
declaration of war on the United States, this that means two more01:02:38
countries in the top 3, damn it in terms of global01:02:41
military potential, is in a global01:02:44
nuclear conflict,01:02:46
in short, these are the risks, as dimonn said,01:02:49
this is from the morgue gp morgan chase the these01:02:53
risks can01:02:54
no longer be stopped, it will be a complete01:02:59
radul hole,01:03:01
I’m starting to wonder01:03:04
if honestly, you’ll have to get01:03:07
lost somewhere, probably01:03:09
because01:03:10
in this situation01:03:13
you could be deprived of your residence permit, you could just be01:03:18
thrown out of the country, you need some kind of01:03:21
decision where to move back to, and I thought,01:03:26
look at the map, I’m about to look for01:03:32
where the action might take place01:03:34
from the USA are involved to the country,01:03:37
here is Europe, here is China, it01:03:41
seems to me that if you are looking for something, it is not in01:03:44
this for share, but somewhere in this I understand01:03:47
that this is not how the world thinks, since it is a01:03:49
[ __ ], it will be everywhere, but still the chances are01:03:52
less, so I guess While01:03:54
I’m looking at such countries as01:03:56
Uruguay, this is why the01:03:58
Spanish language is in the top and01:04:01
in the top 2 of Latin America in terms of01:04:06
per capita income, that is, it’s a01:04:10
developed economy, they call it01:04:12
Latin American Switzerland, but I do01:04:17
n’t think I want to go there yet Saks understand how01:04:19
the entrance will probably be closed because Australia,01:04:23
probably just like Europe, will deprive01:04:25
the Russians and in general seven hundred01:04:28
with a Russian passport of the opportunity to be on the01:04:30
territory of the United States, Canada, of course, also01:04:33
Mexico, I don’t want to01:04:37
do anything here in Africa, there’s nothing to do in Russia, it’s01:04:41
also in such a state now01:04:44
that I don’t want to go back to Russia to be01:04:46
honest, although I’ll have to return my thoughts, it’s01:04:50
still connected with the climate and with the01:04:54
moods that exist in01:04:55
Russia now, that is, the jingoism01:04:57
that is now arising, of course, it’s01:05:00
annoying to me that China is also in the line of fire, he01:05:02
will also participate if the global01:05:04
world turmoil begins without China,01:05:06
Russia, Europe and the United States, it probably won’t01:05:10
work out, so this is where I would01:05:13
n’t want to be, well, somewhere here,01:05:17
he doesn’t say New Zealand, but New01:05:19
Zealand, too, the Saxons can also01:05:22
throw you out of there, all too much01:05:24
activity and volcanic also close to01:05:27
potential regions, conflicts01:05:29
turn out to be Latina, Latin America, and01:05:31
here you can consider countries01:05:34
such as dumper Panama, you can also Panama is01:05:37
close somewhere here, here it is, and Panama is01:05:39
close to this region and it’s hot there,01:05:42
you see, the01:05:44
hottest is here on the01:05:46
equator and01:05:48
here this is the state of Canada from01:05:53
the waist up, it’s clear that the earth is slightly01:05:55
tilted at such an angle that it’s01:05:59
hot in Australia and it will be hot here too,01:06:00
but not extreme heat01:06:03
like the world in Brazil or Madagascar,01:06:07
so I just told my01:06:11
thoughts,01:06:13
let’s go to let's move on to the markets, this is01:06:16
too01:06:18
Tanzania,01:06:20
pain in Antarctica, but what is it like to live there in01:06:24
Antarctica,01:06:31
okay, but you understand my mood, yes, it’s01:06:35
no longer a joke, really, because01:06:36
everything is somehow escalating, the rates01:06:39
are rising every day, I01:06:41
know the history of the01:06:42
Second World War very well by 1 well I don’t really remember, I didn’t01:06:46
really study the Second World War,01:06:47
it sounded very good and very similar to this,01:06:49
no one thought that there would be such a thing,01:06:51
the boss distributed it all over the world, but one01:06:55
side attacked the other, then the third,01:06:57
there was a miracle, some blocks were agreed upon, bam01:06:59
bam bam again, and it started with of all sides,01:07:02
usually such a conflict exposes all the01:07:05
previous smoldering conflicts, and01:07:08
here my thought is that you01:07:13
need to be where the hut is on the edge,01:07:16
somewhere away from all this01:07:18
because when the big ones, as they say, when01:07:22
there is a fight01:07:24
there, no one dismantles theirs or theirs from the01:07:31
cube01:07:34
to the cube It’s probably not so easy to live in01:07:38
conditions of isolation, they’re not under absolute01:07:41
sanctions, they’ve been living for seventy years01:07:45
now, it’s probably not worth going there, okay,01:07:48
let’s move on to the markets as01:07:51
I understand more, the s&p 500 index for01:07:54
the week,01:07:55
Vitya, in different directions, Mika, we have protection01:07:58
for sectors I feel a little better01:08:00
than the rest of these green01:08:04
protective consumer sector01:08:06
cyclically just worse01:08:09
stones cages on service worse technology01:08:13
worse01:08:14
finance sector is also more red01:08:17
than green and healthcare just01:08:19
shows that we have a closer01:08:21
mood in the late cycle, which is01:08:23
confirmed by the fidelity investment report01:08:26
which showed01:08:28
Norway there are no guys in Norway, there is no sun and01:08:31
Norway is also in this mess and01:08:34
they will participate to the full there01:08:42
so01:08:44
okay01:08:47
although I was in pain I wrote this in01:08:52
my telegram channel telegram chat and in01:08:55
my topics in my closed public01:09:00
[music]01:09:03
post probably before I left01:09:08
I’ll say from what date and on01:09:25
August 12 before leaving on vacation and I write that01:09:30
you are currently in your current place it was01:09:35
4280 approximately the01:09:37
optimal point for hedging that’s01:09:40
actually grief so far at the01:09:43
moment01:09:44
my Hodja’s01:09:47
profit is actually01:09:50
about 10,000 dollars here, at01:09:53
this point, we are01:09:55
washed and held somewhere here,01:09:59
two points, the01:10:02
effectiveness of this hedge will01:10:04
remain up to the level of 4000 for now,01:10:07
what next here is possible, I01:10:09
have rebuilt it, I will stretch it there, I have deployed01:10:12
it, I don’t know yet, I will01:10:14
update it tomorrow, by the way, I01:10:17
have options in the pumping group tomorrow01:10:21
in class, I will tell you this01:10:22
in detail how to manage this position01:10:26
myself in the near future, in principle, there are01:10:28
options in which because here the01:10:30
zones are very, that is, it01:10:32
turned out very well from that also opened we01:10:34
are zone positive tt01:10:37
here we see something that is positive and01:10:40
accordingly the police department immediately gives us the option of the01:10:42
police department for01:10:43
those who do not understand options this is01:10:46
just insurance if the price01:10:49
continues to rise I will have01:10:51
limited losses with him the recipient in case it01:10:53
starts to fall I will receive01:10:55
limited profits up to 30-3501:10:58
dollars at 3,900 then this hash no longer01:11:00
works, then something else will have to be01:11:03
done while the mood is that well,01:11:09
let's see what we have01:11:17
snp 50001:11:19
450 today 2 percent almost to 201:11:23
percent is01:11:26
a bit dumb and01:11:29
look I'm in last time I showed01:11:32
we have a scenario in which we have already01:11:34
reached,01:11:37
that is, I still bet on this01:11:39
scenario when we still have an01:11:41
upward movement of use, but theoretically we could01:11:44
reach this point here it is 1 201:11:49
3 4 501:11:55
in this scenario if we01:11:58
have finally reached this point,01:11:59
then it is waiting for movement, most likely01:12:03
somewhere here in the region of 2,220,250. I01:12:07
didn’t have such a scenario before01:12:09
that dragged us there, but now it01:12:13
appears, these are the same scenarios of military01:12:15
conflicts that have been shown since the recession,01:12:17
I think that everything will be much more prosaic than01:12:21
a recession, it will mutter a little here01:12:22
and most likely01:12:24
this scenario will go here, but as01:12:27
for military conflicts, you can01:12:29
fly here too, to be01:12:31
honest, because this is the end of the01:12:34
previous big four and perhaps the01:12:37
entire big five ended here and01:12:39
we have to move into this01:12:42
zone, this is the area of01:12:44
800 points on the S&P 500 index for now,01:12:47
of course, again with the current economy, the01:12:50
current level of liquidity doesn’t01:12:52
tell us about this, the script doesn’t tell us about this, but who01:12:55
knows what it will be like next,01:12:58
so I’m keeping the hedge and I want you to do it01:13:03
again remind you that the hajj is not for01:13:05
making money, it is not for profit, the hedge is01:13:09
for peace of mind, that is, when we01:13:11
open a hedge, we01:13:13
exchange a small amount of money, that is, there is01:13:16
the possibility of losing on peace of mind,01:13:19
or you01:13:21
are selling hedges, you will not earn money,01:13:25
you will recoup part of the losses for the feast on01:13:28
the portfolio, you are simply selling the01:13:32
purpose of which is either if01:13:35
everything goes well you will lose some01:13:37
money on insurance, but in any of these01:13:39
cases you will get peace of mind, too,01:13:41
when you have one of these sitting. it seems01:13:43
like it’s more calm, I’m not very calm,01:13:46
to be honest, because the hedge that I01:13:48
showed you is partial, it doesn’t cover01:13:51
all my potential losses, it’s01:13:54
very limited in this,01:13:55
so maybe if we fall a little more01:13:58
around 400, I’ll sharply01:14:00
strengthen it because the profit that01:14:03
I have now will be, firstly, in the01:14:06
region of 400,01:14:08
how much01:14:13
let’s see,01:14:16
well, in the region of 400, it could be within the01:14:20
limits of 20,000 dollars, what is01:14:23
20,000 dollars? Here I can01:14:25
rebuild so that I can spend these 20 thousand dollars01:14:27
over this01:14:29
collapse and01:14:31
hedge my portfolio is already01:14:33
full, for example, for the next three01:14:36
four five months,01:14:38
I’m just opening up this income of 20 thousand01:14:41
dollars, but01:14:43
I’ll still have a full portfolio for the policyholder, this is01:14:45
not yet, well,01:14:50
actually, I’m not losing anything here01:14:52
because I have everything now, everything01:14:53
will unfold, everything will go to the top01:14:55
and if you want, I need it, but if it goes01:14:58
down here, that’s exactly what I did, there01:15:00
will already be a profit there, and I rebuilt this one into01:15:02
some more interesting01:15:04
bathtub design,01:15:07
so01:15:09
let’s01:15:10
move on to the companies’01:15:17
reports, five percent of the companies have already01:15:19
reported, in principle, you can consider the01:15:21
reporting season finished that today01:15:24
after the zoom market closes, I01:15:27
recommend you pay attention to zoom, I01:15:30
stupidly had an optional design, I01:15:32
want to convey to Japan01:15:37
in it such an interesting situation01:15:44
savic,01:15:49
that is, at the moment we have01:15:51
a chance that the report will be01:15:54
good, in principle, if it it will be a little01:15:57
worse, we can open these, then here it01:16:01
will be normal, well then the second wave has01:16:03
materialized and you can already buy,01:16:05
but it may open already, and then here,01:16:08
virtually, we will do the second one01:16:11
and go into a reversal, that is, I01:16:13
want to set a position here and and01:16:15
I closed it,01:16:16
I will install it01:16:20
at the current moment, it seems to me that it came out01:16:22
this fall, of course there are chances of that01:16:25
same triple01:16:28
triple zigzag, many people asked me01:16:31
mono where is this where is the cancellation scenario01:16:34
in which the triple zigzag will be01:16:36
impossible, let's think about it, we01:16:43
can assume we don’t know for sure,01:16:45
but we can assume that the current01:16:48
scenario is a01:16:50
double zigzag01:16:51
then this zigzag is w01:16:57
we have x01:16:59
here we have01:17:03
but I’m putting it like this, well,01:17:06
someone can draw it like this as you like,01:17:08
this is our wai and the01:17:14
triple zigzag scenario assumes this kind of01:17:17
movement where we have w x01:17:20
x x z01:17:23
the question is where this point should go, what01:17:26
cancels this this possibility, according to the01:17:29
rules, wave x x always ends01:17:32
within the wave wai01:17:37
this means that in practice this01:17:39
means the price cannot go above01:17:41
this level, that is, above the level of01:17:46
4,604,600 therefore if we exceed 4,600,01:17:50
for sure, a triple zigzag is no longer possible, it’s01:17:53
already01:17:55
tense, why because we have this01:17:57
kind of me,01:18:00
which is often depicted in books01:18:04
like that’s how01:18:07
the zigzag is drawn,01:18:10
in fact, it usually runs along this line,01:18:13
that is, the reversal has taken place01:18:16
and exactly where this line passes, that the01:18:18
intense current acceleration indicates01:18:21
that the market mood is bearish,01:18:24
look, if01:18:27
the scenario with a recession is still being realized, it can01:18:29
either fly here and get out, or01:18:33
slightly out of income,01:18:35
that is, fly here and get out, and01:18:39
if we have a scenario of a01:18:42
serious military conflict, then01:18:46
we will fly there, that is, for now these are the01:18:50
layouts according to the somersault pizza index01:18:53
and, accordingly, in terms of01:18:57
noise, the same thing, I’m01:19:00
still counting on a more favorable scenario01:19:02
that we have come out of this fall01:19:05
wx wai and01:19:07
let's continue lower let's continue to grow within the01:19:11
framework of the impulse which will consist01:19:14
of five won 1 has already passed,01:19:17
in my opinion and01:19:21
toads to develop the second wave, you can01:19:25
make a mistake here, yes you can because here, to be01:19:26
honest, there is also a correlation01:19:29
form and then we can have this part01:19:34
xx01:19:36
it can be white like and like an hour01:19:39
drawn w x well the same as on01:19:43
Yandex01:19:45
the same as on Yandex you can with the01:19:47
viewer like this01:19:50
here don’t look at these01:19:55
because01:19:58
here too there are different options01:20:05
okay as for other booms01:20:09
fell alto many ZAZ invest I'm01:20:13
still positioning you not to buy securities01:20:17
with negative flows Palo Alto is a01:20:20
good company01:20:21
cybersecurity but it is still unprofitable everything is a01:20:23
loss-making company at the01:20:25
current rate level so on very so-so01:20:27
for not01:20:29
investing in the company Mrs.01:20:32
tomorrow will report to the market01:20:34
then today at closing there will be01:20:36
movements and tomorrow in the morning Gleb Intuit will do it01:20:39
after closing expand I’m not01:20:43
trading but you can trade je te caut the01:20:45
Chinese will be active tomorrow too01:20:48
some Chinese company,01:20:53
well, all the main ones already then and01:20:56
nvidia after closing in Wednesday from large01:20:59
joint ventures long is also loud company salesforce01:21:03
this is all after the market closes01:21:07
well the gap someone may be trading gas01:21:13
Thursday peloton before the market opens I’ve already01:21:16
stopped not seeing it seems like a01:21:18
dead company to me but someone is trading it01:21:20
after the market closes marvel ulta this is01:21:24
all like that medium-sized companies Dell01:21:28
Gleb01:21:30
we are all but these are all second-01:21:33
tier companies after all there is 1 he left01:21:34
only or video and salesforce01:21:37
probably01:21:40
yes snowflake this is a promising company01:21:43
small01:21:45
yes from the first went to all zoom also does not01:21:50
count the company 1 went he01:21:54
Palo Alto noticeable companies in the cyber01:21:56
business, but also not the first to go, he switched to01:21:58
nvidia salesforce, two campaigns01:22:00
left, two large reports, everyone01:22:02
has already reported,01:22:04
okay, let me answer your questions in just a few01:22:06
minutes and you do01:22:08
n’t have to finish the whole thing01:22:14
5 thousand you liked the presentation01:22:18
on inflation and engage and01:22:20
interact please like it01:22:22
so that I know that next time there is more01:22:25
macro or more from a friend and01:22:35
snk 509 percent the next month is only01:22:38
down in general, but we have such a month before it is01:22:40
not very good for investing01:22:43
palantir palantir we considered these01:22:47
times we will look again01:22:50
palantir01:22:53
I drew it for you,01:22:58
in fact, here I01:23:00
told you that we have a chance for a second01:23:02
wave, I put it here, but it01:23:03
went faster, like this, it leads here01:23:06
somewhere, it can finish,01:23:10
maybe in a moment we can catch it here, it01:23:12
can just a little go deeper here,01:23:13
for example, here where the limitation is, this01:23:16
layer, that is, below 6 3640, in theory it01:23:19
should go, but nevertheless, here it is01:23:24
the minimum, it has already fulfilled a minimum,01:23:28
that is, if we are considering within the framework01:23:32
of the correction, this is obviously a PC correction and,01:23:35
as a rule, the goals01:23:37
are adjusted somewhere within the limits of one hundred01:23:41
sixty-two percent of a wave01:23:48
here01:23:50
in area 78, probably that is, and01:23:55
this is b and c in the01:24:00
conchita area01:24:04
for now if you don’t want to participate in01:24:09
these calculations there are fibonacci waves01:24:11
other things that can be done here there is01:24:14
one Obviously there is01:24:18
pressure down to that is, there is a01:24:20
certain channel, it doesn’t work very well01:24:22
for correction, because this is a01:24:24
zigzag, obviously in a series of zigzags, it can01:24:27
work, you can take something like this, like a01:24:29
channel, and01:24:33
as soon as it goes beyond the boundaries of this01:24:36
channel, you can already buy it there is already at01:24:38
the exit going to look if it obviously01:24:41
came out here, well, that all means she has01:24:43
already formed this wave,01:24:46
it will save you from catching those01:24:49
falling on, but if you take here01:24:51
she can01:24:53
go here and then go here, for01:24:56
example,01:24:59
if she went beyond that channel Well, probably the01:25:02
impulse of this bearish potential has already01:25:05
ended and you can buy it, yes it’s01:25:08
higher but it’s safer01:25:12
so dimon that under the general lecturer01:25:15
electrician01:25:21
I’m not trading it now I had a01:25:23
trade on it for profit and closed the option01:25:26
more until I didn’t trade like that before01:25:29
recently bounced off01:25:41
I have such a01:25:42
global view on it, a01:25:48
global view such01:25:50
that it can do from here to the01:25:53
area there is a 20 to 30 dollar movement,01:25:58
but of course01:26:01
for now this is a hypothesis why because01:26:04
theoretically the main movement of the correction01:26:06
could end here it was already01:26:12
another question what there was a01:26:18
big question here,01:26:20
it’s not an impulse, after all, there’s01:26:23
probably a01:26:26
better chance of seeing just such a01:26:28
scenario and01:26:32
you can consist of two01:26:38
of two impulses and lush waves, so01:26:41
she was the first to pass and01:26:44
here it was regular a.b.01:26:47
here the regular correction is now01:26:49
developing from which it has just begun01:26:52
to develop,01:26:54
perhaps we’ll fly here and then it01:26:57
will finish this general electric01:26:59
more carefully, uncleanly burning and not a sign, and01:27:02
is selling what’s in it, what’s in it that01:27:06
might interest us,01:27:11
so they didn’t ask to transfer it to night,01:27:15
otherwise it’s all the same somehow the01:27:21
rule is01:27:31
too bright maybe for you01:27:33
those who watch me at night01:27:36
general electric look we have no01:27:40
wrinkles negative so login01:27:50
country Labinsk well there01:27:54
are no margins we have a negative return01:27:57
on equity that is on share capital01:28:00
negative question why the hell am I buying01:28:03
returnable sleep and capital minimally clearly01:28:06
lower than vag and the so-called01:28:09
cost of capital about this they01:28:11
will show us this graph, you see, we have01:28:14
6 and 8 percent, that is, six percent,01:28:16
and the returnable song metal 2 percent is a01:28:19
negative value in the company does not01:28:20
know how to make money at the01:28:22
moment he has everything is bad with this, it01:28:25
turns on01:28:29
the issue periodically, see the little red ones, almost the mission has01:28:32
gone, our assets are rapidly melting,01:28:36
our share capital is also melting, well,01:28:40
why take it, that’s why we can01:28:42
predict that in this situation, there will01:28:44
be a general decline in the market, this01:28:46
scenario is quite likely,01:28:51
we are alive last time we looked at it01:28:53
nothing has changed01:28:56
children gtx01:28:59
nothing has changed look at the01:29:02
previous review01:29:04
on Friday we looked at it in the description01:29:08
usually time codes are made they appear01:29:11
the next day and the01:29:13
dad of the time code you can look at it like this01:29:17
look bitcoin well it’s been knocked down by which it’s01:29:21
difficult I’m bitcoin toric publishing01:29:24
myself on the boost blog01:29:27
where to watch it I don’t even know01:29:29
where is the best place to watch I’m full of benny01:29:31
benassi looked at01:29:33
Cain fight but with such a base it’s in01:29:53
my opinion here we showed yes01:29:55
now a second yes here I showed01:30:01
here I last made a publication01:30:04
I showed that we have a01:30:06
diagonal forming, it was somewhere here,01:30:10
that in the near future it is not clear what will happen01:30:14
to the general graph, but there will definitely be a decrease,01:30:16
we ended up decreasing,01:30:18
the decrease happened, so the question is,01:30:20
how much of a complete movement was it, or01:30:23
something else will happen, but in theory it is not01:30:25
should go lower, that is, this correction,01:30:27
but if you are an impulse, then the whole marking01:30:30
will also be similar to the s&p 500 index with a01:30:32
triple zigzag,01:30:33
that is, the sides of the xacti visit, we are going to01:30:36
11000, and if this is a double zigzag, then after the01:30:40
current correction it will begin01:30:41
to recover01:30:42
a little, it is ahead become an idiot of the01:30:45
index because it’s still 24/7,01:30:47
and by the way, it was a good case because01:30:50
during the time it was possible to reset even 100 watts01:30:53
and they were in a medium-term position,01:30:56
I’ll do a review on bitcoin for the second time for the01:30:58
second time while I’m guessing and since I said01:31:01
that when I realized that the fall01:31:04
would end in the region of01:31:05
18-17 thousand dollars and we finished01:31:09
here on 17 3 and01:31:12
turned around and the second review made that we01:31:15
will have a correction while we are lucky, of course,01:31:18
that no one knows the future, but when01:31:21
certain supporting phases appear,01:31:23
it is possible, in principle, to01:31:25
at least somehow predict this market01:31:27
on sun is01:31:32
n’t it fundamentally01:31:34
the amount already looked at today01:31:38
modern01:31:40
modern we looked at the same thing in the last review01:31:45
valya01:31:47
valya I also have a little while it01:31:50
suffers from the general situation of the world01:31:55
economy01:31:57
this is how it looks for now01:32:01
but it seems to me that the main fall here has01:32:04
already ended with the 16th there In the year 17,01:32:08
here the01:32:10
development of the growing form continues to develop,01:32:14
taking into account the fact that we 10 climbed here,01:32:17
I think there01:32:21
will be some kind of triangle waiting for us here at the end, here01:32:24
it is bc01:32:27
d and01:32:29
then it will go here, I01:32:32
think this option is quite01:32:34
possible, this is option 1 Option 201:32:39
here was a b c01:32:43
this is the first and now b and here c here here01:32:48
201:32:51
2 and let’s go to 3 4 5 but it still01:32:56
seems to me that we are in some kind of long-term01:32:58
growth, this is also confirmed by the01:33:01
company’s profile the company is01:33:03
inexpensive,01:33:06
it’s clear that inexpensive at current prices,01:33:08
if the price falls, it wo01:33:10
n’t cost that much anymore,01:33:12
but the01:33:14
company is doing well in terms of01:33:16
profitability,01:33:18
look, so far, at current prices, 4201:33:21
percent, but this is a march, so they will reduce it01:33:23
because the prices for its products01:33:24
have decreased,01:33:26
but well, that’s it all functions are included,01:33:30
designed open, I will decide 3, that is, there is where to01:33:33
grow, and if prices continue to01:33:36
rise and our industrial metal supply01:33:38
continues to grow, most likely for three01:33:40
green traditions, they talked about this last time01:33:42
in the last review, then why were they and do01:33:45
n’t continue to technically it01:33:47
looks As for the dissolution, there are different01:33:49
options, either right away, people or after01:33:50
correction, but I don’t care, she01:33:57
’ll come here next for God’s sake,01:34:02
something tells me that she’s already all01:34:06
like this, here I’ll make a movement here01:34:08
and01:34:09
it will be diagonal like this, it01:34:13
will be done to clear me of the raider feelings01:34:19
maybe I'm wrong then it would be the01:34:21
first it would be 2 it would be the third01:34:24
it would be 4 this would be 501:34:27
well as one more01:34:30
option here for the fourth it goes01:34:33
then there will be a schedule like this and here 501:34:35
this is an option this is already an option,01:34:38
but the diagonal is present here with a high degree of01:34:41
probability.01:34:46
What other options are there?01:35:02
already the third in 3 401:35:06
5 in 3 and this is the third, that is, this is already a01:35:09
full-fledged such a growing channel01:35:12
shipyard I’m also happy with cameo01:35:16
average in my opinion if I’m mistaken no 1701:35:18
panels 16 I added a little01:35:21
in general without overloading this paper then01:35:24
Brazil will know that he’s in Brazil01:35:27
the enemy food and asked for01:35:32
it so far not anywhere for the guys this is a pure01:35:36
backup option if it goes full this01:35:38
I’m afraid when it’s already a complete01:35:41
goofball goofball then he wo01:35:44
n’t let me go anywhere01:35:50
so01:35:52
ask me to have requests poly and auto they01:35:55
don’t like me for my opinion on the01:35:59
Chinese auto industry01:36:01
I say that I love the Chinese communists too much,01:36:07
but01:36:09
what can I do if they are now01:36:11
making a revolution in the electric car market,01:36:14
the revolution lies precisely in01:36:16
production technologies,01:36:18
that is, they simply do it better, this is01:36:20
generally some kind of nonsense, but the Chinese01:36:21
do it better than the Europeans, even in terms of01:36:23
quality, the latest models are the most the01:36:26
last one, many of you there tried them01:36:28
there, a two-year-old car there, SDS, this is a little different,01:36:31
here’s the latest one, why01:36:33
because with the latest electric train01:36:34
they compete in a new market and there, in the01:36:39
production of these electric trains,01:36:40
they used the best01:36:42
practices from the coolest01:36:44
specialists from around the world another01:36:47
product a little -a slightly qualitatively different01:36:49
product, so for a01:36:54
small car there is nothing to talk about here yet,01:36:56
but it seems to me that it can01:37:00
grow in the long term, although I can01:37:03
immediately warn you about the Chinese01:37:05
automobile industry, there is such a nuance, very01:37:07
deadly competition, which of them01:37:10
will win the car, will it be by enter or01:37:12
else there’s a bunch of people there,01:37:14
I don’t know them, there’s just a01:37:17
colossal number of01:37:18
producers, the market is still01:37:20
good in Russia, but as soon as it stabilizes a little,01:37:21
sooner or later it01:37:23
will be already mastered,01:37:26
which of them will come out as a plus, I don’t know who01:37:32
judging by the prices that they are now01:37:34
showing, they are generally on the verge of01:37:36
profitability; it works; I don’t know how01:37:39
you can make01:37:42
an SUV there based on the level of rendering of the01:37:46
Vera Groove at a price of 60 thousand dollars;01:37:48
electric; seriously, the battery is01:37:50
almost a hundred kilowatts; that is, it’s01:37:53
like 600,700 kilometers it turns out01:37:55
this is how it can be done hare for this01:37:57
money I don’t know, apparently it’s on the verge01:37:59
of cost or they give some kind of subsidies01:38:01
and nismo there01:38:02
was an investigation into Merida that it01:38:05
subsidizes governments and01:38:07
thus kills competitors, perhaps, but01:38:08
why not in the USA it’s the same did01:38:11
their farmers why did the Chinese do it, but the01:38:14
fact is that the investments went straight into the powerful01:38:16
billions, it’s a fact that this market there is01:38:20
straight up and yes, you’re right, there are no communists in China01:38:23
as long as there is a type of01:38:27
sympathizer there, but01:38:29
no,01:38:31
so the guys01:38:33
literally five minutes left,01:38:39
the prisoner is so old, old01:38:42
a company like nine cisco01:38:48
what can we say from this graph it’s01:38:52
dangerous of course01:38:54
it’s dangerous because I don’t know what01:38:57
was here but I can guess from these mounds01:38:59
that perhaps there was a first wave here there01:39:01
was a second wave pay01:39:04
attention to this and01:39:06
now we can say for sure that it was01:39:16
almost flat I’ll give it almost a plane, I01:39:20
guess it was still a plane before01:39:27
[music]01:39:29
1 201:39:35
third fourth and now 5 it suggests itself01:39:39
here, maybe there’s also this kind of movement 501:39:42
well, that’s all, there’s a line that01:39:44
goes here as soon as it breaks, it can01:39:48
fall hard, you’ll be with inaccurately01:39:52
it’s inexpensive with I’m not mistaken on it but nevertheless01:40:07
but although on the other side of the forum Paris and 3101:40:11
at a rate of 15 it can just be01:40:14
adjusted here it’s not that01:40:16
cheap because everything is so red it’s not01:40:19
bad today but it’s01:40:22
not growing very quickly although the future is01:40:25
forward rates revenue growth is01:40:27
decent 18 well, not exactly with01:40:33
these pins and it01:40:35
can shout very promisingly and again the forecast01:40:38
is forecasts and now the market will01:40:39
distribute01:40:40
cyrax,01:40:42
it’s unclear that with these arrests the01:40:46
new car mod new car shows good01:40:50
potential according to all the screamers I have01:40:53
constantly knocks out01:40:55
I don’t know,01:40:57
graphically I don’t see such super01:41:00
potential, but it’s only possible that this is the case01:41:01
if it forms towards this01:41:03
diagonal here, but she has a very good01:41:07
fundamental view here,01:41:12
that is, she has a great profitability01:41:15
assessment of a very cheap 4801:41:19
forward indicators are really very01:41:21
good negative to tus it01:41:23
won’t grow, well, damn01:41:26
it, here they put a big fall, I don’t01:41:29
know if it will be the wrong one 43 yards 37 3 401:41:32
will there be such a fall if you are a01:41:33
metallurgist specialist, if I’m not mistaken, a01:41:37
metallurgical plant,01:41:39
let’s see,01:41:43
yes, this is a steel manufacturer, a01:41:46
metallurgist, will it be for him? lords01:41:49
such a drop if you are kind of orgy related01:41:52
write whether there will be such a drop in revenue01:41:55
here if you don’t believe in it according to current01:41:57
estimates it’s very cheap01:42:02
well something like that so01:42:06
what else with01:42:19
MST upgrade or up to 8 dollars guys01:42:22
whatever is there 8 7 dollars 10 dollars01:42:25
such as the price is very good for the future,01:42:31
here it is and you can see it falls and01:42:34
falls01:42:36
not very well01:42:40
micro vast vaccine what is all this01:42:48
smells some kind of biotech01:42:50
bio [ __ ]01:43:01
they cast and he and the batteries01:43:07
here then tells me that this is some kind of01:43:09
startup judging by streams of01:43:13
150 million01:43:15
guys, here 150 million is carried by Catal01:43:18
makes the largest, look how01:43:21
his revenue from batteries is01:43:26
I have no data there is01:43:33
no data on the card01:43:36
there are others, the numbers here are very01:43:38
small and while these are unprofitable streams, I01:43:42
certainly won’t recommend01:43:43
buying it at the current stage they01:43:46
all these fornicators will shoot well,01:43:47
they will shoot well at the stage of the relay01:43:51
cycle, remember it was like in 2020 after01:43:54
the start of the season, it was May June July01:43:58
August remember everything was shooting, all01:44:00
the [ __ ] just flew up, the same01:44:03
thing will happen this time, so you have to01:44:05
enter on time when The FRS will announce that we are01:44:09
moving on to easing,01:44:12
then it will all fly up and until01:44:15
that moment it’s still not the best01:44:17
day to buy, you01:44:19
still don’t have to worry about it at all, buy01:44:22
russell 200001:44:23
small caps and use all the features to work on this01:44:27
topic01:44:29
fortinet is a bit expensive01:44:32
missis let’s look at it before01:44:34
the report and all this last thing, the01:44:43
children would have put it here01:44:46
from here, because there were projections and we01:44:49
went along this project, you say to the wave,01:44:52
well, I was here while I was showing a triangle01:44:57
here, so for now it’s01:45:01
dangerous and01:45:03
buying01:45:10
something like this could be a situevina here,01:45:23
maybe again these are for 4 bucks and why not01:45:26
18 bucks now it will start everything then01:45:30
distributed the bases all over it will fly immediately to01:45:34
the action then to 7 and then to 4 bits01:45:36
wags why is there no01:45:38
harmony guys everything today I can no01:45:41
longer support the secant fer,01:45:43
like it if you like liked01:45:44
the video subscribe to the channel have not01:45:46
subscribed yet economics of investment trading01:45:49
on my channel goes out regularly and01:45:52
good luck trading see you in the01:45:54
next video bye everyone01:46:10
[music]Description:
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