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Что говорит о том, что правительство не справляется

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Channel: Радио Свобода

Сергей Переслегин

Переслегин

импортозамещение

Китай

Россия

экономика

00:00:00

Sergei Borisovich is a sensitive question.

00:00:03

There is different information, it comes from

00:00:06

the News, it comes from various

00:00:08

analytics, it comes from people we know,

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different experts, the matter

00:00:16

concerns, in general, Is the

00:00:18

Russian industry actually ready

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for import substitution? And

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what does dependence on imports mean in principle?

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that case, I just want to say the phrase

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Yes and end there, but if we talk

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about this story seriously, it is

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really very dangerous and unpleasant,

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first of all, from China itself, it seems that

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this was understood from the very beginning,

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why are we moving there, look?

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By the way, I’m not sure what is

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understood Despite the fact that the situation in

00:01:01

Russia requires a sharp modification or

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at least their transformation, changes in

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their properties, in general, nothing like this is

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happening, that is, at the level of the

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country’s leadership, ministries, departments

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and large

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corporations, in general, there are the same

00:01:23

people who

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e created themselves their position in the period of

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sustainable development,

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in fact, these are the people who were taught the

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business model and the people who were taught the

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business model behave in the following

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way, this is just their modus opera, they

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behave this way. And we need to

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do something for this, we need such

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such and such components Where

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can you

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get them? Optionally, they can be bought on the

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foreign market and they can be made at home; the

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decision is always made to buy on the

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foreign market. Why is it better on the foreign market; on the

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foreign market is faster; on the

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foreign market is it cheaper; the

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fact that

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something might not be sold to you on the foreign market until the

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fourteenth year was

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simply perceived as heresy. That is, this is fantasy,

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this cannot happen because this

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can never happen after the

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fourteenth year, but we will always find

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a way around it. And after the twenty-second

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year Well, yes Okay, okay, in the West it’s

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difficult or very expensive to buy according to complex gray

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schemes, but we have the East. We

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have China. We’ll buy everything there. Well, okay, that’s

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their Modus Open; they’re not

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used to reasoning differently. How much

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the experts shouted and shouted that when buying an airplane for

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civil lines in the west, we will be left

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at a critical moment without aircraft and

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components, now

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at the last moment we are trying to start

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producing the

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MS21 and superjet with our avionics and

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remember about that 204 And about the IL-96, all

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this could have been done calmly without much pain in

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another 10 years back No, we

00:03:26

will now heroically try to solve this

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problem and only because the East is

00:03:31

not yet ready to sell us its aircraft in the required volume.

00:03:33

And I’m afraid that a

00:03:36

Chinese project would appear on the market now in

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large

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numbers. Well, I just wanted to touch on

00:03:42

the auto industry. Yes, here we are. we are already buying

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in large quantities Yes, and the aviation industry will

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just be the Chinese, still their own project Well,

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they are just starting to operate it themselves, they are just starting

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to operate it, they are not yet ready to

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sell in a decent volume, but look

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nuni follow the

00:04:02

first thing, dependence on the foreign market is

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extremely dangerous in a war of any kind

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a war does not even require your war, a war

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may be between Israel and Palestine and

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yet you may have

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problems with the foreign

00:04:17

market; the second

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point is that dependence on the foreign market is

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extremely dangerous;

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change with a

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predictable change in prices because

00:04:34

Chinese trade policy

00:04:37

is well known from the very beginning. What

00:04:41

China is doing in the area that China wants to

00:04:44

make its

00:04:46

own, the first thing it does is dumping,

00:04:50

that is, they are sold at very cheap prices.

00:04:54

Inno Everyone says deputy

00:04:58

for

00:05:01

this, they are generally the same, then T is

00:05:05

much

00:05:06

cheaper, naturally, for two or three years, and China is a

00:05:10

slow civilization, they have cyclical

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time they can take their time, they will

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sell cheaply while Russian

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enterprises produce the same

00:05:21

photonics, the same

00:05:30

aircraft, or do not repurpose it into something

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that China is not currently

00:05:36

doing yet, as soon as this happens,

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prices instantly go up,

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much more expensive than the original the price that

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Russia gave us. We remember very well

00:05:49

from history how China became the world’s first

00:05:52

player in the market of those same conflict

00:05:54

minerals. But previously,

00:05:58

countries such as the

00:06:00

USA, Brazil, and Canada played in this market, too, are not the worst

00:06:04

players, but China quite calmly

00:06:07

dumped on this at first

00:06:10

bought up the aircraft in the market that it can then the prices

00:06:12

went up now, in general, this has

00:06:14

already

00:06:16

affected everyone, but the most important question is

00:06:18

probably not even this. Not even financial.

00:06:21

We need to understand this very clearly.

00:06:23

Talk to Mare

00:06:28

tumi

00:06:30

Mare with no we don’t cross here, but

00:06:34

China is extremely a significant

00:06:36

part of the Russian macro-region is needed, and from this

00:06:40

point of view, in the macro-region competition

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with China, Russia has far from coinciding

00:06:47

interests, and here is the question: we really

00:06:52

want the

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AO not to have a direct

00:07:00

military clash, but with which we

00:07:03

will have very tough competition, and

00:07:07

this is a fundamental question and the second

00:07:10

question is whether we are sure that we

00:07:13

really want to give China

00:07:15

the opportunity to monopolize

00:07:17

the production of products that are important to us,

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even if it is not necessarily

00:07:22

Defense, knowing absolutely for sure this

00:07:26

Chinese dumping scheme with a sharp

00:07:28

rise in prices,

00:07:30

which they always use and

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of course will continue to use from

00:07:35

my point of view, those who make such

00:07:40

decisions

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Well, I’m quoting Lem, here I’m afraid there is a choice

00:07:46

between being locked up in the house of a

00:07:48

traitor or in a

00:07:50

madhouse because this is either treason to the

00:07:52

Motherland in the literal sense of the

00:07:58

word

00:08:00

or it was simply carried out but carried to the point of

00:08:05

insanity simply because that already

00:08:08

once with the Western markets we have

00:08:11

completely gone through all this. On what basis do people

00:08:14

think that the Easterner the East behaves

00:08:17

differently here than the

00:08:18

West simply does not fit in my

00:08:21

head. That is, why do they seriously

00:08:23

think so? I will not note that this is a very

00:08:25

interesting question for lawyers

00:08:28

because

00:08:30

There has been an increase in the sale or sale of Chinese

00:08:34

components and they already look like

00:08:36

Russian ones and,

00:08:39

accordingly, something needs to be

00:08:41

done about this too. Russian law at the moment does

00:08:43

not protect the Russian manufacturer from

00:08:45

such stories; that’s just the point; the

00:08:48

Russian manufacturer demands

00:08:51

import substitution from it they require you and,

00:08:55

in general, the Russians

00:08:58

pay attention to small and medium-sized

00:09:00

enterprises. But even at the level of large

00:09:03

enterprises, in general,

00:09:05

China is not protected from unfair competition

00:09:07

now, just as it has never been

00:09:10

protected from unfair competition from

00:09:12

the West, and this is no

00:09:15

longer a question for the Chamber of Commerce. Well, It

00:09:19

seems to me that this should be made one of the

00:09:21

topics of the conference that we

00:09:24

are going to hold just for

00:09:26

large technology companies at the end of

00:09:28

December, yes, I think this is a good idea and we

00:09:32

need to talk about it seriously

00:09:34

because the number of people who say We will

00:09:37

still

00:09:39

buy everything if On the twenty-second, I almost did

00:09:42

n’t hear them, they were apparently scared of

00:09:45

the situation that arose then, the western markets were

00:09:47

collapsing before our eyes, now as the

00:09:50

eastern markets are being built, these

00:09:53

people are becoming louder and more

00:09:56

dangerous thank you thank you

00:10:05

N

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