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Table of contents
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Table of contents

0:00
Где миллион российских военных?
2:11
Специальная военная авантюра: кого отправили на фронт
14:30
Первая битва за Донбасс: добровольцы, ЧВК Вагнер, кадыровцы, росгвардейцы
23:06
Контрнаступление Украины под Харьковом
27:23
Вторая битва за Донбасс: «мясные штурмы»
31:52
Будет ли вторая волна мобилизации
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Video tags

Медиазона
Сергей Смирнов
трещанин
дима трещанин
майкл кофман
путин
зеленский
сердюков
шойгу
фронт
потери россии
армия
контрактники
призыв
мобилизация
армия россии
война
украина
россия
война украина россия
война в украине
кадыров
пригожин
евгений пригожин
пригожин чвк
чвк вагнера
вагнер
пригожин вагнер
росгвардия
добровольческие батальоны
национальные батальоны
пятисотые
отказники
мобилизованные
бахмут
соледар
кременная
валерий герасимов
специальная военная операция
медиазона
армияроссии
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  • ruRussian
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00:00:03
country of security forces and it has a gigantic
00:00:06
army, a million people do not count
00:00:09
350,000 Russian Guardsmen, but after a year
00:00:12
of war we see that at the front there are
00:00:14
convicts mobilized by it, there are Volunteers,
00:00:18
but where are the million military men, hundreds of thousands of
00:00:21
Russian Guardsmen? Where did this huge
00:00:24
army go? Why was recruitment required?
00:00:27
mobilization in the colonies and most importantly, should we
00:00:30
expect a second wave of partial
00:00:33
mobilization Hello, this is Dima Treshchanin with
00:00:36
you section. I mean, before we
00:00:39
get to the point, I kindly ask you
00:00:41
to like and subscribe to the channel. In
00:00:43
addition, you can send to the media zone
00:00:46
Donat link will be in the video description
00:00:56
[music] I’ll
00:01:06
start with a disclaimer; everything that I will
00:01:09
say further from myself is based on
00:01:11
our joint project of calculating the loss of
00:01:14
Russian forces, we have been conducting it since the beginning of
00:01:18
the war, together with volunteers and the Russian
00:01:20
service of the BBC, we know what we know. And
00:01:23
this, of course, is far from complete data But
00:01:26
this is the best data that can be
00:01:29
had, taking into account the so-called
00:01:31
fog of war, where I cannot
00:01:34
understand I am not a military expert I will
00:01:37
refer to and quote public
00:01:40
speeches by the director of the
00:01:41
Russian studies program at the Center for
00:01:44
Naval Analytics, Michael Coffman,
00:01:47
in my opinion the best expert in this
00:01:51
conflict To explain how we
00:01:53
ended up where we ended up and the war itself
00:01:57
must be chronologically divided into several
00:01:59
stages. And here again I will not do it
00:02:02
myself, but will use the expertise of Michael
00:02:05
Coffman, let’s start with the first stage of the war,
00:02:08
special military adventures
00:02:18
4 days before the invasion, the Conflict
00:02:21
intelligence Team ended its
00:02:23
observation with a conclusion Russian troops are
00:02:27
already ready to implement various
00:02:29
scenarios of aggression from operations in
00:02:32
the Donbass to a large-scale invasion of
00:02:34
Ukraine and attempts to seize cities
00:02:37
again, this quote is from the text on February 20
00:02:40
last year, when the withdrawal of
00:02:44
troops and provocations were discussed, I
00:02:47
recalled this period in detail in a separate video
00:02:49
Michael Kofman believes that in general terms the
00:02:52
plan for a special military operation was as
00:02:55
follows: Russian troops
00:02:58
invade the territory of Ukraine in columns but do not
00:03:00
enter the cities but take control of
00:03:02
key intersections and communications;
00:03:05
the main role was assigned to the FSB. They were
00:03:08
responsible for the change of power in Kiev and the
00:03:11
seizure of other large cities
00:03:13
in a change of power and the main bet was made
00:03:16
Zelensky was killed or the new
00:03:20
head was captured It doesn’t matter who signs it,
00:03:22
whatever Putin wants, the transfer of Crimea to Donbass,
00:03:26
capitulation whatever That is why
00:03:28
Putin most likely did not lie when he said that
00:03:31
the occupation was not planned, he really was
00:03:34
not included in the plans at that time and
00:03:36
Precisely therefore, it was not the army that entered the cities,
00:03:39
but a column of the National Guard with plastic
00:03:42
batons and shields, they were counting on
00:03:45
civil protests and not on armed
00:03:48
resistance, that is, something in the style of the
00:03:50
storming of the Mina Palace in Kabul in 1979, or
00:03:55
rather even the invasion of Czechoslovakia in
00:03:58
1968, or as Kofman adds the invasion
00:04:02
The United States went to Iraq in 2003, from which they took the
00:04:06
worst, under Defense Minister
00:04:08
Anatoly Serdyukov,
00:04:11
they wanted to build the Russian army around the concept of
00:04:15
elite formations. However, this is the place for
00:04:19
most armies of the world, major wars have
00:04:21
not happened for a long time and have not been foreseen, and for
00:04:24
local conflicts it is much better to have
00:04:27
super prepared from
00:04:30
super trained excellent
00:04:31
equipped small forces than a large but
00:04:34
bloated and untrained army, in case of a
00:04:37
large-scale conflict with NATO there will be enough
00:04:40
time for mobilization. That is why
00:04:42
Russia retained the call to
00:04:45
quickly build up the army in the event of a big war, but
00:04:48
the problem is that the super elite cool
00:04:51
Mega Special Forces are very expensive and they are not
00:04:54
can be numerous by
00:04:56
definition, the exact number of such
00:04:58
troops is understandable, classified as elite
00:05:00
troops, of course, you can immediately include
00:05:03
units of special operations forces, military
00:05:06
units subordinate to the Gru. That is,
00:05:10
now
00:05:11
Google correctly, the main directorate of the General Staff sounds
00:05:15
stupid, so everyone uses
00:05:18
such a good brand, of course, the Elite is the
00:05:20
Airborne Forces training of the Paratroopers strongly more expensive
00:05:23
and more complex than ordinary motorized rifles
00:05:25
Marine Corps, perhaps some
00:05:28
tank units, for example, this is how the
00:05:31
first presented itself Tank Army and
00:05:35
several more specialized units
00:05:37
Arctic mountain and so on how many
00:05:40
soldiers it is is unknown, I have seen estimates
00:05:44
that all airborne forces are 45 thousand people
00:05:47
and it is not very clear counting
00:05:50
conscripts or not I think that this is generally a
00:05:52
total of Marine Corps five brigades and one
00:05:55
regiment estimates from 12 to 35 thousand and Apparently the
00:05:59
lower figure is more likely to be correct
00:06:01
But this is all the regular number in fact the
00:06:04
army always did not have enough people
00:06:06
Russia coped very poorly with the
00:06:09
contract model of the army and were best
00:06:11
staffed and the best people were
00:06:14
staffed, again, by the elite units,
00:06:16
but they also had a shortage of even more
00:06:20
contract soldiers, we must also put them in quotation marks,
00:06:22
these are the same conscripts who were simply
00:06:24
offered to serve longer, but in better
00:06:27
conditions, after Serdyukov, Shoigu came and
00:06:31
started the army not to reduce, but on the contrary
00:06:32
to expand, new formations appeared. And
00:06:36
after 2014, they began to be placed along the
00:06:39
border with Ukraine of the new unit, new
00:06:42
problems, because the number of contract soldiers did
00:06:45
not grow as quickly as we would like,
00:06:48
so the increase occurred largely on
00:06:51
paper. Michael Coffman believes that the
00:06:53
Russian army is solving the problem of a
00:06:54
lack of numbers in first of all, I
00:06:57
began to save on infantry, there was someone to
00:07:00
shoot from howitzers, there was someone to control
00:07:02
tanks and other equipment, but there were very, very few of those who
00:07:05
directly had to reach enemy positions with their own feet,
00:07:10
so when the
00:07:13
first shots of columns of burnt equipment appeared,
00:07:15
everyone thought, damn, many
00:07:17
thousands must have died there in fact, all these
00:07:20
armored personnel carriers were at best half empty. And
00:07:23
that for a demonstration of force it would be quite
00:07:25
suitable for a parade and you can’t see who is
00:07:28
inside except the driver. As a result, the
00:07:31
invasion forces in Ukraine, according to various estimates,
00:07:34
ranged from 120 to 200 thousand people. A
00:07:37
slightly later estimate 90 thousand army
00:07:41
30 Russian Guard another 20 troops of the republics,
00:07:45
in order to show the authorities the strength of
00:07:48
some units, they were sent to the front
00:07:51
entirely, for example, with regimental
00:07:53
bands. And here I am not exaggerating: in our
00:07:56
list of the dead there are people from regimental
00:07:58
bands, and these units advanced
00:08:00
as far as they could and entered the battle differently
00:08:04
to suffer heavy losses, everyone knows about
00:08:07
the battle for Gostomel airport where, as
00:08:10
one patriotic blogger wrote, the
00:08:12
airborne troops covered themselves with
00:08:15
unfading Glory, but for participation in the
00:08:19
project of counting losses, it began in earnest
00:08:21
with this video from the memorial service of the 247th
00:08:25
Airborne Regiment from Stavropol, I almost already talked about it
00:08:27
already a year ago Then I
00:08:31
knew that by April 60 people had died in this unit.
00:08:33
Now I know thanks to this
00:08:36
post that the regiment lost 76 people
00:08:40
dead and 140 wounded on the second day of
00:08:43
the war, this happened in the south where the actions of the
00:08:46
Russian army were relatively
00:08:48
successful, here is the mayor of Nikolaev Vitaly Kim
00:08:51
shows broken equipment, clearly airborne,
00:08:53
possibly traces of that very battle 76
00:08:56
people killed 140 wounded This is a lot
00:09:00
for the regiment Yes, a lot from each regiment
00:09:03
two Battalions of tactical groups were formed,
00:09:06
here is a combat note captured on the battlefield
00:09:09
about a combat tactical
00:09:11
group from another airborne regiment from Anapa
00:09:13
in total 538 people By State A actually had
00:09:18
2403 and this was before the invasion. That is, if the
00:09:22
Stavropol Paratroopers have approximately the
00:09:24
same picture in terms of personnel, then they
00:09:27
could have lost up to a quarter of the fighters and This is
00:09:29
only in the first two days of the war and
00:09:32
comparable losses were suffered by almost all
00:09:34
elite
00:09:36
special forces units thrown into battle as light infantry
00:09:39
To capture cities Well, that is, to take
00:09:42
Grozny again with the forces of one
00:09:44
parachute regiment, where
00:09:46
the Ukrainians could organize
00:09:47
resistance, it ended in massacre; the
00:09:51
Airborne Forces or special forces do not have heavy, well-
00:09:54
armored equipment, much less
00:09:56
artillery, tanks, we still don’t know the
00:09:59
full numbers. What are those days there were
00:10:01
real losses, obituaries still appear
00:10:04
with the text he died at the beginning of his and
00:10:08
then we find the date February March 22 and
00:10:13
mostly these are special forces of the Airborne Forces or the
00:10:15
Russian Guard, we know from approximately in the
00:10:18
thousands of deaths before the retreat from
00:10:20
Kiev and quite reasonably
00:10:23
assume that on in fact, the losses are
00:10:25
twice as high because from our practice
00:10:28
we know that we see approximately every
00:10:31
second Death at the front. But for the
00:10:33
invasion forces this was already a lot,
00:10:36
considering that there were at least
00:10:38
three more wounded, that is, from 12 to 24 thousand
00:10:43
in the first weeks alone, this is very a lot
00:10:46
for a group of 150 thousand, I note that
00:10:49
not all elite units suffered
00:10:51
such serious losses; some managed to
00:10:53
avoid heavy fighting and they later
00:10:56
played a significant role in this war. And
00:10:59
many units After the first months of the war,
00:11:02
casualty reports simply disappeared; apparently their
00:11:05
remnants were taken to the rear, having lost the elite
00:11:09
The Ministry of Defense sent literally
00:11:11
everyone it could to Ukraine Coastal defense units
00:11:14
from Kaliningrad are protecting us from the landing of
00:11:17
NATO troops Don’t care about NATO on the front
00:11:20
200 The Arctic Brigade is guarding our
00:11:23
Arctic from the Norwegian American
00:11:25
landing No matter what, we’ll take
00:11:28
bears to the front The seventh military base
00:11:32
in unrecognized South Ossetia protects from the
00:11:35
encroachment of hostile Georgians, it’s
00:11:37
okay to the front 102 military base in
00:11:40
Gyumri where, in fact, the active conflict for
00:11:43
Karabakh, the Armenians will go to the front and my
00:11:47
favorite example is the 18th machine gun on the
00:11:51
Artillery division, it’s thanks to it that it’s
00:11:53
militaristic Japan still hasn’t
00:11:55
taken our Kuril Islands What do you think where
00:11:58
is it right now in Ukraine at the front,
00:12:01
everything that could be snatched from the
00:12:04
ground forces has been there for a long time, but
00:12:07
still, where is the Russian Million Army?
00:12:10
Why does the count still amount to tens, well,
00:12:12
hundreds of thousands? The fact is that Russia has a
00:12:15
bunch of units that are not for zone and
00:12:18
cannot be involved in this war
00:12:21
in the first place This is the Strategic Missile Forces
00:12:24
strategic missile forces nuclear shield
00:12:26
they are unlikely to be trained to take
00:12:28
fortified areas sailors Including a
00:12:31
giant submarine fleet The Black Sea
00:12:34
Fleet somehow participated in the war but all
00:12:36
its activity was reduced to the launch of
00:12:38
missiles after death of the cruiser Moscow
00:12:41
ground air services We have about
00:12:44
fifty dead from these units,
00:12:47
the Ukrainians are actively shelling temporary
00:12:50
airfields in the occupied territories,
00:12:52
remember the same Chernobaevka but
00:12:55
not everyone is participating in the invasion, besides, the army
00:12:59
is a gigantic bureaucratic apparatus
00:13:01
I was once quite amused by this
00:13:04
military news 434 Generals received experience in Syria,
00:13:08
that is, in the Russian army there are
00:13:10
at least
00:13:12
434 generals,
00:13:15
this is an entire Battalion tactical group of
00:13:18
just generals, a military school, training
00:13:21
grounds, military registration and enlistment offices, in the end, they
00:13:24
are all military personnel And most of them
00:13:27
stay far from the front at the first
00:13:30
stage of the war There is another one that is much less
00:13:33
studied chapter including we did
00:13:36
n’t particularly study in the ldnr mobilization was announced
00:13:39
5 days before the war and it was
00:13:42
not at all partial rowing and they are still rowing
00:13:45
all the men without any preparation they were
00:13:48
immediately thrown into storming the ukrainian
00:13:50
fortifications with many geographical
00:13:53
names up to still in the reports Avdeevka
00:13:56
Krasnogorovka Toretsk New York then
00:13:59
Russia first tried the tactics of meat
00:14:03
assaults And so For prepared positions
00:14:05
with recruits without combat experience,
00:14:08
this term was fixed much later,
00:14:11
I highly recommend reading an article about this by
00:14:13
my colleagues from BC But now spring
00:14:16
has crossed the middle of the Russian troops
00:14:18
withdrawn from near Kiev and the war moved into a
00:14:21
new stage Michael Kofman calls it the
00:14:24
first battle for Donbass and
00:14:26
new material for meat
00:14:29
assaults appeared in it; the volunteer was most
00:14:37
likely the first to massively use
00:14:40
Volunteers Ramzan Kadyrov while everyone
00:14:43
laughed at his tick tock troops; he was
00:14:46
back in early April last year he did an
00:14:49
amazingly smart thing, he thought about
00:14:52
how to reduce the losses of ethnic
00:14:55
Chechens but at the same time not lose his
00:14:57
place as the main apologist for this war
00:15:00
as an important supplier of people to the front,
00:15:03
here is a list that was published by
00:15:06
Ukrainian intelligence with two and a half thousand
00:15:09
names, we consider it confirmed
00:15:11
people those who are indicated died
00:15:14
actually died, but I will draw your
00:15:17
attention to another column category, it has
00:15:20
exactly two variations: just a volunteer
00:15:23
and a volunteer Nokhchi nails This is
00:15:26
the self-name of the Chechens, if you turn on the
00:15:28
filter, the list breaks almost in half
00:15:32
1200 Chechens the rest of the people from all over
00:15:35
Russia, that is, the propaga tells us
00:15:38
about the exploits of Kadyrov’s men, but in fact,
00:15:41
half there, if not most of them, are
00:15:44
taxi drivers from Norilsk and
00:15:46
security guards from Ulan-Ude, important stories
00:15:49
were spoken with these volunteers, they were
00:15:52
immediately promised very good money and the
00:15:55
requirements were much lower than at that
00:15:58
moment the Ministry of Defense has a criminal record for
00:16:01
health conditions everything didn’t matter, they took almost everyone,
00:16:03
they reached the mayor’s office of Grozny, which means it’s good, the
00:16:07
governors of other regions also
00:16:10
quickly figured out sending
00:16:13
people to war. This is a great way
00:16:15
to show loyalty. And maybe you can get
00:16:18
some goodies at court in Putin’s eyes.
00:16:24
According to the calculations of the new newspaper, 33
00:16:27
regions announced their volunteer battalions. many governors
00:16:30
said that they would do two or three
00:16:33
battalions with different names, I’ll say right away that
00:16:36
many battalions did not reach the front and
00:16:40
suffered losses, or they remained
00:16:43
on paper altogether, we can seriously say
00:16:45
that about a tiger from the Primorsky Territory and Alga and
00:16:49
from Tatarstan Well, maybe more about several
00:16:51
got involved As a result, it was the barons
00:16:53
all over the country that advertised the
00:16:55
contract service appeared, announced
00:16:58
short-term contracts, then I will explain
00:17:01
why these quotes are not accidental and are very
00:17:03
significant, increased payments in parallel,
00:17:06
revived the Bars program, the
00:17:09
country's combat army reserve before the war, this
00:17:11
was such a structure where one could
00:17:13
sign up to receive monthly
00:17:16
small money and sometimes participate in
00:17:19
some kind of training of the Ministry of Defense,
00:17:21
mainly there were people well over
00:17:24
40, even closer to 60,
00:17:28
private military companies were also recruiting, including
00:17:30
Wagner PMCs, it is separately known about them that
00:17:33
Prigozhin’s troops radically lowered
00:17:36
the requirements,
00:17:37
they opened their blacklists then there is, too,
00:17:40
they began to take almost everyone in a row, we shouldn’t
00:17:42
forget about the people’s militia of the LPR, they
00:17:46
always brought Volunteers on board, but in the
00:17:49
new conditions the efforts were reduced, plus a
00:17:52
dozen more military formations with
00:17:55
their recruitment algorithm, Cossacks,
00:17:57
neo-Nazis from Rusich Well, and so on,
00:18:00
such a motley picture and each
00:18:02
such unit has its own
00:18:04
conditions for money, some offer
00:18:07
more, some offer less, somewhere full
00:18:09
equipment at the expense of the customer, somewhere
00:18:12
the recruit buys everything himself and here
00:18:14
comes the most interesting thing. The fact is
00:18:17
that those who want to go to war even on
00:18:20
such conditions when they offer simply
00:18:22
gigantic money for non-capital
00:18:25
regions, it turned out to be not so much, I
00:18:28
can’t say how little exactly We
00:18:31
see only those who died, and even then not
00:18:34
all of them Volunteers signed up, most likely
00:18:37
tens of thousands, but maybe up to 50 thousand,
00:18:40
clearly no more And people who knows a little about
00:18:42
economics Already understands what is the failure of
00:18:45
this approach, that we have
00:18:48
several suffering buyers, each
00:18:51
with their own approach and their own shortcomings,
00:18:53
there is an extremely limited resource, these are
00:18:56
market relations and this is the highest
00:19:00
competition. Well, that is, you understand there
00:19:02
on the battlefield all these Barca PMC units
00:19:06
maybe it is fighting more or less in one direction,
00:19:08
but in the rear they are pulling apart and fighting for those
00:19:12
few who were tempted by money
00:19:14
dishes or succumbed to Propaganda. How to
00:19:17
Recruit a battalion in your small
00:19:18
region if everyone who wants to has already bought a
00:19:21
ticket to Grozny or to Goryachiy Klyuch
00:19:24
is the crows in this market in the obvious
00:19:27
outsiders, as the structure is the least
00:19:29
flexible, it doesn’t suit them because of a criminal record, then they don’t
00:19:32
take it due to their health, can you imagine about a
00:19:34
year ago the medical board still could not, then the
00:19:38
equipment was purchased by Rodny himself, and so
00:19:40
on, the best fighters are collected by PMCs, what can I
00:19:44
say, the market has decided And this resource
00:19:47
turned out to be not only small but we will quickly
00:19:50
exhaust it. You can at least 24/7 run
00:19:54
propaganda through your brain. But those who wanted to
00:19:56
go to war have already signed up, and there are
00:20:00
significant numbers of new ones. They simply have nowhere to come
00:20:03
from; at the same time, the first battle for
00:20:05
Donbass took place rather in favor of Russia; the
00:20:08
graph shows that losses in this
00:20:11
period decreased significantly
00:20:13
PMC volunteers successfully, although not
00:20:16
too quickly, took cities in the Luhansk
00:20:19
region
00:20:20
Rubezhnoe popasnaya Severodonetsk Lisichansk
00:20:23
ended The siege of Mariupol in the Donetsk
00:20:25
region Russia during this period simply had
00:20:28
total superiority in artillery
00:20:30
then at the beginning of summer Zelensky says
00:20:33
Ukraine is losing up to 100 people every day
00:20:37
and five thousand wounded, but the practice of meat
00:20:41
assaults inevitably affected the morale of the
00:20:44
Volunteers, someone returned home,
00:20:47
someone told their friends that it was not worth going,
00:20:50
the flow of possible fighters became
00:20:53
thinner and thinner, it was during this period of
00:20:56
relative calm for the army and
00:20:58
success for the Volunteers that Russian
00:21:01
troops faced a problem the
00:21:03
500s had refused before, but
00:21:07
now it has become a mass phenomenon. Then
00:21:09
last summer, the authorities literally did
00:21:12
not know what to do with them. There was no
00:21:17
way to formally punish them or force them to return to the front. In the
00:21:20
end, they came up with the idea of ​​throwing refuseniks into pits and
00:21:24
putting them in the basement of the DPR, but this did not
00:21:27
stop the refuseniks. how many of them there were, we
00:21:29
don’t know and can’t know, but I wouldn’t
00:21:32
be surprised if the 500 army lost more
00:21:35
people than in battle
00:21:37
in these same months, in our reports there were
00:21:39
significantly fewer Russian Guards,
00:21:41
I’ll assume that they performed
00:21:44
exceptionally poorly as combat units
00:21:47
Even by the standards of this entire war however,
00:21:50
what to expect from people whose main skill is to
00:21:52
hit women in the stomach during
00:21:55
rallies, someone was sent to
00:21:57
control order in the occupied
00:21:58
territories, the
00:22:00
headquarters of some units
00:22:02
became targets for the highmars, and that’s how we
00:22:05
learned from the losses that they were there at all
00:22:07
anyway it turned
00:22:10
out that not so much was
00:22:12
planned for the occupied territories, so the Russian Guard
00:22:15
needed very little. But who appeared
00:22:18
much more in the reports were people at the
00:22:21
age of professionally connected with the
00:22:23
army, not contract soldiers, yesterday’s
00:22:26
conscripts, not freshly graduated lieutenants
00:22:29
from 30-45 year old sergeants, warrant officers, sergeants
00:22:33
majors, honestly, I used to think what a
00:22:36
rank was only Arkady Babchenko has, that
00:22:39
is, at the front there were people who were the basis of the
00:22:42
army of those whose losses were perhaps most
00:22:45
sensitive in the second half of spring and
00:22:48
summer, Russian forces lost, according to our
00:22:51
reports, four and a half thousand
00:22:53
people, or 9,000 if we assume that we
00:22:57
see every second death, the calm, as we
00:23:00
know, is over in September, a Ukrainian
00:23:03
counter-offensive near Kharkov and
00:23:05
Kherson. On
00:23:13
September 6, Ukrainian troops went on
00:23:16
the offensive near Kharkov and in a matter of
00:23:19
days the front literally collapsed. Why did
00:23:22
this happen? The invasion forces
00:23:25
were initially not large enough to occupy the
00:23:28
entire country. You remember that a
00:23:31
quick and brilliant special military
00:23:34
operation was planned; the losses suffered plus
00:23:36
refuseniks
00:23:38
have thinned these forces to the limit. In addition,
00:23:41
most of the most combat-ready
00:23:43
formations, including the remaining
00:23:45
elite units, were kept in the Donbass and
00:23:49
many were transferred to Kherson, where
00:23:51
the Ukrainians loudly and persistently
00:23:53
announced a future counterattack from
00:23:56
captured documents. It turned out that the
00:23:58
units in the Kharkov region were
00:24:00
barely equipped a third and
00:24:03
held the defense there just Volunteers
00:24:06
from Bars some remnants of the Russian Guard and
00:24:09
parts of the so-called LPR the front
00:24:11
was falling apart so quickly that the Ukrainian
00:24:13
troops did not have time to raise forces to
00:24:16
continue their attacks. All that was
00:24:19
then possible for the Russian forces to avoid a
00:24:22
very large encirclement in Izyum or Mana
00:24:25
At the same time, the Russian group was under attack
00:24:28
on the right bank of the
00:24:30
Dnieper in Kherson, where the Ukrainian
00:24:34
offensive did not develop as
00:24:36
rapidly as I already said, the defense
00:24:38
there was held by elite units, they were grandfathers from
00:24:41
Bars. But they managed to disable
00:24:44
the bridges across the Dnieper, which doomed the
00:24:46
forces located there either to
00:24:49
retreat or to inevitable defeat
00:24:52
and against this background the Ministry of Defense apparently managed to
00:24:55
push through decisions that were previously
00:24:58
politically impossible in Russia they announced
00:25:02
partial mobilization with the same decision the
00:25:05
army closed the issue of 500 now an attempt
00:25:09
to get out of the war became a crime
00:25:11
by the way Remember I I say that
00:25:13
short-term contracts should be put in
00:25:16
quotes so here we go with mobilization, all
00:25:18
contracts turned into open-ended and
00:25:21
three-month ones, too, in short, don’t gamble with
00:25:24
the state, after
00:25:26
two weeks it became known about the first
00:25:28
deaths of mobilized recruits with
00:25:31
virtually no training, they were sent
00:25:34
just in the north of the Lugansk region to plug
00:25:37
the breakthrough with their bodies, and I must say they
00:25:40
managed gradually at the front
00:25:42
stabilized and has hardly moved since then, the
00:25:44
hastily brought in
00:25:46
mobilized allowed for a
00:25:49
successful evacuation. This is not my assessment of
00:25:52
Michael Coffman from the western bank of the
00:25:55
Dnieper. Coffman believes that the decision to
00:25:58
withdraw from Kherson was pushed through by
00:26:03
General Sergei Surikin, who was then appointed commander of the entire invasion group, and
00:26:07
politically this was also the case not just against the
00:26:10
backdrop of statements that Russia is here As
00:26:13
Kokhman Surikin says, apparently he decided
00:26:15
to adhere to a radically different
00:26:18
strategy after the withdrawal from the right bank of the
00:26:21
Dnieper, the front was reduced, the troops
00:26:23
had to go on the defensive for the winter and accumulate
00:26:27
forces while strategic aviation and
00:26:30
missile troops strike at
00:26:32
Ukrainian power plants and
00:26:34
transformers senseless assaults
00:26:37
actually stopped except for the assault on
00:26:40
Pavlovka and the attack on Bakhmud, the active
00:26:43
siege of this city began in October And
00:26:46
at the time of recording this video, the city of
00:26:48
Ukraine is still holding, or rather holding
00:26:51
what is left of it, this period, according to the
00:26:54
coffee classification, ended with the
00:26:56
resignation of Surikin in early September and
00:26:59
mid-January Russia
00:27:02
According to our reports, we lost more than 6 thousand
00:27:05
people killed, or 12 thousand if we remember about
00:27:09
our coefficient of known losses,
00:27:12
including two mass deaths on
00:27:14
October 24. Recruits from Volgograd and on
00:27:18
New Year's Eve Samara and in mid-
00:27:20
January the Second Battle of Donbass began
00:27:26
[music]
00:27:29
I specially I say almost nothing about the
00:27:32
assault on Bakhmut. Yes, of course, we take into account the
00:27:34
losses of prisoners. In general reports, these
00:27:37
losses are growing at some
00:27:38
catastrophic pace at the time of
00:27:41
recording this video. We have 2200 of them. And
00:27:44
now they have overtaken everyone in terms of deaths, both
00:27:47
airborne forces and motorized riflemen. I examined in more detail the
00:27:50
participation of prisoners in this war in the last
00:27:52
video If you haven’t watched it,
00:27:55
there will be a link on the right to understand it. I
00:27:58
wrote it down at the 1200 mark and
00:28:00
said the number. With a reserve of 1500, here I
00:28:04
basically don’t make a reserve, but I think that once
00:28:06
we finish the installation we will publish it will be closer to
00:28:09
3 in mid-January.
00:28:11
special operation was accepted by the head of the General Staff
00:28:13
Valery Gerasimov why what
00:28:16
dictated this decision most likely to
00:28:18
sit on the defensive became politically
00:28:21
unacceptable for Putin and
00:28:23
Surikin’s strategy of bombing and freezing Ukraine
00:28:26
obviously failed by the way small
00:28:29
and the next video I want to record
00:28:32
just on this topic of the failure of the company against
00:28:34
power plants Gerasimov shelling
00:28:37
of Ukrainian did not stop the cities, but
00:28:39
moved troops to attack in
00:28:42
several directions at once. If you follow
00:28:44
the reports, you know these names:
00:28:46
ugledar criminal Avdeevka plus
00:28:49
Bakhmut where Prigozhin’s prisoners received
00:28:52
reinforcements from the Airborne Forces and achieved serious
00:28:55
success by taking the solidary and enveloping the city’s
00:28:58
flanks, but all this came at the cost of
00:29:00
monstrous losses To be honest, we simply
00:29:03
do not have time to process obituaries per
00:29:06
week, we record the death of thousands of
00:29:09
people, approximately at the beginning of February, our
00:29:11
summary began, frankly speaking, to lie to the
00:29:14
lesser extent, we encountered such a
00:29:16
phenomenon as back Lock Well, that is, we
00:29:20
stupidly always have about 500 obituaries that
00:29:22
need clarification and additional
00:29:25
work, but there’s simply no time for this work.
00:29:27
And there’s no time because Good
00:29:30
afternoon, there’s a flood of new messages, so what
00:29:32
’s going on? Judging by the reports, it’s now impossible to
00:29:35
identify who exactly is being sent into meat
00:29:38
assaults. Yes, prisoners of PMCs are dying under bakhmut,
00:29:41
this is more or less Clear, but in the same place there are
00:29:44
Volunteers and military personnel attacks on
00:29:47
Ugledar were carried out by special forces units from
00:29:49
Ussuriysk and marines from Vladivostok and
00:29:52
Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, but we see
00:29:54
that mobilized and
00:29:57
Volunteers from the Tatarstan battalion
00:30:00
Alga are dying there, the same situation is under flint, that
00:30:03
is, in the attack he sends all available
00:30:05
forces can to be someone and take care of it
00:30:07
saves As you understand When you
00:30:10
only see the dead, what’s going on with the living is not
00:30:13
very clear And we and other
00:30:15
Observers also record the phenomenon of
00:30:17
cannibalization of the army Remember I said
00:30:20
that most of the Russian army
00:30:23
cannot fight because it has completely
00:30:25
different tasks so now this is not so
00:30:28
on the Fro, for example, sailors of
00:30:31
the Pacific Fleet appeared, a BBC article about
00:30:34
meat assaults concerned another
00:30:38
previously unknown phenomenon, now those
00:30:40
mobilized are allegedly assigned to
00:30:43
units of the so-called DPR, formally there is
00:30:46
nothing like that after the annexation,
00:30:48
there is no separate army of the DPR, this is all
00:30:51
a unit of the Russians troops, that is,
00:30:54
don’t get me wrong, it was always
00:30:56
known that a significant part of the officers of
00:30:59
these people’s militias are in fact
00:31:02
Russian military personnel, but the Russian
00:31:04
mobilized ones were not ready to
00:31:07
share the fate of their colleagues from Donetsk
00:31:10
and Lugansk, who were also mobilized but
00:31:13
even before the start of the war and died long ago in the
00:31:17
same Avdeevka, after more than a
00:31:19
year of war, it turned out that sending
00:31:23
waves of people to death is the only
00:31:26
tactic available not only to Wagner but also to the
00:31:29
Russian army, and the difference between
00:31:33
volunteer prisoners and professional
00:31:35
military
00:31:36
conscripts is completely erased; in
00:31:39
fact, the prisoners who
00:31:42
have to fight only six months before Freedom
00:31:44
have the mobilized and the military simply don’t have at least some finite period of
00:31:47
stay in this meat grinder. So
00:31:52
will there be a second wave of partial
00:31:55
mobilization? Michael Kofman said this is a
00:31:58
safe bet. Well, that is, it’s close to one hundred
00:32:01
percent a win-win option for an
00:32:03
argument. I won’t argue with an expert here. I’ll
00:32:06
add from the prisoners themselves are not infinite if
00:32:09
Russia is going to seize the Donbass
00:32:11
as Wagner is doing now under
00:32:13
Bakhmut, not a single wave of mobilization will be needed
00:32:15
and Wagner’s actions under
00:32:18
Bakhmut will still be relatively successful if
00:32:21
Russia attacks because
00:32:23
10 times more people will die under coal,
00:32:26
another thought from Michael Kofman
00:32:29
which I remember, you don’t need to look at
00:32:32
the map who controls which territories
00:32:34
or conquers you need to look at what is
00:32:37
happening with the forces that are doing this
00:32:40
mid-autumn at the beginning of spring the front
00:32:44
has moved, well, a maximum of kilometers,
00:32:48
while the level of losses is the same as it was at
00:32:50
the beginning of the invasion, the war is obvious it will not
00:32:53
end tomorrow will never be in the
00:32:56
near future and losses during the strategy of
00:32:59
meat assaults will only increase So
00:33:02
what happened to the Russian army
00:33:03
Why in the end mobilized prisoners and Volunteers are fighting instead of it
00:33:07
Definitely
00:33:10
it was not ready and was not preparing for a
00:33:13
long-term full-scale conflict and
00:33:16
no army has
00:33:18
units for meat assaults Well,
00:33:21
maybe only North Korean where
00:33:24
you will find so many fools even for a
00:33:27
Kamikaze battalion, don’t forget
00:33:29
that the army is just an instrument of politics,
00:33:32
it’s the politicians who set goals for the military and not
00:33:36
the other way around, the army usually doesn’t start a war
00:33:39
on its own and the world is also not in its
00:33:41
competence more in Russia, where the army
00:33:44
from the law enforcement agencies is in
00:33:47
last place in terms of influence, Putin built
00:33:50
just such an army with gigantic
00:33:52
costs on flying Forgive the
00:33:54
wunderwaffle on the Doomsday weapon for the
00:33:58
devil, understand that Although he knew that he
00:34:00
was going to send him to Ukraine,
00:34:01
it was Putin who formulated the tasks of
00:34:04
special military operations which
00:34:07
completely failed and it was Putin who
00:34:11
did not curtail this war after the failure, of
00:34:13
course, the responsibility lies with the military,
00:34:16
primarily with the Chiefs of the General Staff
00:34:19
Valery Gerasimov and the Minister of Defense
00:34:22
Sergei Shoigu Although what a military man he is,
00:34:24
Gerasimov could not help but participate in the
00:34:27
development of plans for the solution and subsequent
00:34:31
emergency adjustments creating plan
00:34:34
B after the failure of the first stage of the company,
00:34:36
plan C after the collapse of the front near
00:34:39
Kharkov and plan D, which he is now
00:34:41
implementing personally, of course he knew that all
00:34:45
this could work, but only by a miracle, in an
00:34:47
amicable way, he would, in accordance with the
00:34:50
honor of a Russian officer, lock himself in
00:34:53
his office and use premium
00:34:55
weapons, but he won’t do it and
00:34:58
will continue to send people into meat
00:35:00
assaults, of course, he’s not an officer at all But an
00:35:04
ordinary courtier, unfortunately I have
00:35:07
no good news again, but
00:35:10
next time I promise to cope,
00:35:11
like, subscribe to the channel,
00:35:15
send donations to the media zone Thank you for
00:35:18
watching Take care yourself and good luck

Description:

Спустя год войны мы видим, что война в Украине — дело мобилизованных, зеков или добровольцев. Но ведь в России был миллион военных? 350 тысяч росгвардейцев? Так куда делась эта огромная армия? Зачем потребовалась вербовка в колониях? Мобилизация? И главное — стоит ли ожидать второй волны «частичной мобилизации»? В рубрике «В смысле» разбираемся, куда исчезла российская армия. 00:00 Где миллион российских военных? 02:11 Специальная военная авантюра: кого отправили на фронт 14:30 Первая битва за Донбасс: добровольцы, ЧВК Вагнер, кадыровцы, росгвардейцы 23:06 Контрнаступление Украины под Харьковом 27:23 Вторая битва за Донбасс: «мясные штурмы» 31:52 Будет ли вторая волна мобилизации * Поддержите это видео через опцию «Суперспасибо» или подпишитесь на донаты: https://donate.zona.media/ * Подписывайтесь на нас в соцсетях: Телеграм: https://t.me/mediazzzona Твиттер: https://twitter.com/mediazzzona Фейсбук: https://www.facebook.com/unsupportedbrowser Инстаграм: https://www.facebook.com/unsupportedbrowser

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mobile menu iconHow can I download "Куда делась российская армия | В смысле" video to my phone?mobile menu icon

  • You can download a video to your smartphone using the website or the PWA application UDL Lite. It is also possible to send a download link via QR code using the UDL Helper extension.

mobile menu iconHow can I download an audio track (music) to MP3 "Куда делась российская армия | В смысле"?mobile menu icon

  • The most convenient way is to use the UDL Client program, which supports converting video to MP3 format. In some cases, MP3 can also be downloaded through the UDL Helper extension.

mobile menu iconHow can I save a frame from a video "Куда делась российская армия | В смысле"?mobile menu icon

  • This feature is available in the UDL Helper extension. Make sure that "Show the video snapshot button" is checked in the settings. A camera icon should appear in the lower right corner of the player to the left of the "Settings" icon. When you click on it, the current frame from the video will be saved to your computer in JPEG format.

mobile menu iconWhat's the price of all this stuff?mobile menu icon

  • It costs nothing. Our services are absolutely free for all users. There are no PRO subscriptions, no restrictions on the number or maximum length of downloaded videos.