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00:00:01
[music]00:00:49
Hello, ladies and gentlemen, are you here?00:00:51
Dmitry Solotin You are on the channel00:00:53
which is dedicated to investment trading and00:00:55
economics Today we will talk about00:00:57
economics is mainly a macro overview of00:01:01
Life salon channel00:01:03
I hope you like me today00:01:05
I was preparing a lot of slides at the end I’ll tell you00:01:08
about markets Why do I expect for example00:01:11
after all, there is a recession. What are there for this?00:01:16
some accompanying signals Why me00:01:19
maybe not, but that's unlikely to be the case00:01:21
we'll also talk in general today like this00:01:23
rubric macro Write clearly visible00:01:27
I hear a fresh, neat start to broadcast00:01:31
Welcome Welcome to my channel00:01:38
Hello everyone00:01:40
seen heard Okay we won't be long00:01:43
we'll start saving a lot right away00:01:48
I'll set the hour, I'll try to go to bed at one00:01:51
your presentation00:01:56
begin00:01:59
So the situation in the economy Well, of course00:02:02
something will repeat itself in the economy00:02:04
the situation doesn't change that often we do00:02:07
review periodically I'll try00:02:10
still, at least 1 month to review00:02:12
it happens more often today on our00:02:15
August 2023 status possible00:02:18
something will change the future Perhaps you00:02:21
look at me from the future, hello to you00:02:23
I hope you're doing well there, you're doing well00:02:25
no one's fed, nothing's gone wrong00:02:30
Okay So let's get started00:02:35
let's start00:02:38
the first block will be devoted to00:02:41
economics, that is, purely00:02:43
macroeconomic parameters second block00:02:45
will be dedicated to what's going on with the markets, that is00:02:48
we will talk more about markets So00:02:52
Well, I'll start with the business cycle update. If you00:02:57
follow this parameter and this after this00:02:59
he follow the site00:03:01
fidelity-investman.com Well, maybe00:03:04
no one but Fidel Invest for sure and they00:03:06
look at these parameters00:03:09
every quarter and now for the third quarter00:03:12
there was already an update in their opinion00:03:15
The US economy is currently00:03:19
in the late phase00:03:23
business cycle and in the final phase00:03:27
this late00:03:28
late phase in English00:03:32
phase and now we are at the end00:03:35
this late phase and according to this I actually00:03:39
many people say00:03:41
they decided too early that we had00:03:44
recession Tomorrow will come because00:03:46
this period may drag on, it may00:03:48
will last a month and a week Or maybe there00:03:50
year We are in this phase may be leaving00:03:52
For quite a long time everything depends on the authorities00:03:55
from them00:03:58
actions and most importantly how00:04:03
circumstances arise because00:04:06
We remind you with us00:04:08
capitalist economy00:04:09
capitalist economy is not00:04:10
it is regulated centrally after all00:04:13
more scattered and very much00:04:15
economic counterparties and00:04:17
accordingly sometimes it develops00:04:20
a critical mass of problems and this00:04:22
the problem flares up unexpectedly sometimes00:04:25
obvious but it doesn't flash because00:04:27
that I didn’t type didn’t get critical00:04:29
masses of these problems and that's why no one00:04:32
you can't because of economists00:04:34
predict when it will happen because00:04:36
that we have too many fragmented00:04:37
a fragmented system for someone00:04:40
like someone thinks it's this type00:04:42
like a decentralized system somewhere00:04:45
Like blockchains, someone doesn’t like it B00:04:47
in general what it is but the fact remains facts00:04:52
What are the criteria for Fidelity nesment?00:04:55
evaluates the state of the business cycle in essence00:04:58
if you remove everything else00:05:00
others then the seven main parameters are00:05:04
market labor market GDP industry00:05:07
corporate profits loan00:05:09
government regulation or00:05:11
Central bank policies and reserves00:05:14
inventory warehouses And now I myself00:05:17
I keep such a sign and inspect it00:05:20
various parameters and now we00:05:22
obviously we see that GDP is at least at the rate00:05:24
growth for decrease that is the increase we00:05:27
Now we will see forecasts from the World00:05:29
bank they also confirm this00:05:33
speaks of stagnation or even a decline in GDP00:05:35
we've already had it for two quarters in a row00:05:37
was Corra yes What she was on Why her00:05:41
didn't count the recession Although from a point of view00:05:43
view as a technical term00:05:48
twice twice in a row when00:05:51
falls with us00:05:53
quarterly GDP growth, that is, lower00:05:56
zero then it is considered technical00:05:58
recession but it was not recognized as such00:06:01
I agree with this It was not a recession00:06:03
because for a recession you need more00:06:05
the remaining at least six parameters00:06:08
who are here00:06:11
They didn’t tell us that we were in a recession But00:06:14
why did this contraxin happen?00:06:17
yes, that is, a correction of GDP because GDP00:06:20
calculated in real terms Real GP00:06:23
that is, it reflects00:06:26
inflation if inflation is very high00:06:29
hard to show positive00:06:31
parameters of GDP minus inflation if00:06:36
you are minus a very big value then00:06:39
it’s clear to show positive00:06:41
speaker is very difficult as soon as we have00:06:44
inflation has calmed down a little, we know00:06:46
that the last few quarters we have00:06:48
inflation is falling inflation has calmed down00:06:51
The US economy just became easier00:06:54
show positive dynamics cooked00:06:55
jdp because less is already minus00:06:58
number of topics earlier That is this00:07:01
such an effect is the effect of numbers but in general how00:07:05
the minimum can be said with certainty00:07:07
confident that the growth rate is still00:07:09
growing but the rate of growth of us is decreasing00:07:12
labor market unemployment At lows here00:07:16
we today00:07:19
argued with a man here is the next slide00:07:22
I’ll tell you exactly about this now00:07:23
about this But someone said that00:07:26
unemployment is at a minimum, everything is fine guys00:07:28
Look at this table00:07:32
recession always starts with lows00:07:35
unemployment levels always00:07:38
you see these properties in the later phases00:07:41
the most unemployment to a minimum and then00:07:42
there is only growth, that is, growth00:07:44
unemployment Already shows that we are in00:07:45
recession And before that it is on00:07:48
minimum values therefore here00:07:50
Now we have it at a minimum00:07:51
pom value is three and a half percent and00:07:53
nothing much changes here More00:07:55
I'll also show you a slide today00:07:58
the power of labor the power of the labor market and it even00:08:01
still a little stronger, but not very much00:08:04
like the fed industry00:08:07
the industry is clearly cooling down now00:08:09
Or maybe the fall is already happening We00:08:12
we don’t see a specific expression of the fall00:08:14
industrial production But what do00:08:18
us pmi is below 5000:08:21
percent for at least 4 months00:08:25
in a row This means that00:08:27
industrial production00:08:29
will most likely decline in the coming00:08:31
perspective now she's just00:08:32
stabilized That is, we have Kopatel00:08:35
the so-called parameters which00:08:37
is responsible for00:08:39
as if the value is how much is used00:08:43
capacity in the economy Yes using00:08:45
capacity so here we have a Digger, as it were00:08:49
has reached a certain limit and now00:08:51
even started to shrink a little if only00:08:53
the industry would expand, that is00:08:55
intensified then we would see how00:08:58
minimum maximum value dig00:09:00
styles a woman this doesn't come from00:09:02
which leads me to conclude that it is cooling down00:09:04
credit from credit is already stagnating00:09:07
someone showed it to me today in chat too00:09:09
we communicate connect links in00:09:12
description00:09:14
Live but be careful I'm by the way00:09:18
Taking this opportunity once again00:09:21
I wanted to warn you, I almost forgot about it00:09:24
these are a lot of scam guys and they00:09:26
they impersonate me for my channel00:09:29
can fake the channel add you this00:09:31
you won’t even notice the channel is designed00:09:33
exactly like mine, even similar00:09:36
number of subscribers00:09:38
there they even increase views, everything is very00:09:40
looks as well but sometimes they add00:09:42
such ads like we want to take there00:09:44
in money management or I manage there00:09:48
money there, some kind of VIP channels00:09:50
VIP VIP bitcoins this is all for me00:09:54
attitude definitely doesn't matter guys I don't00:09:56
I am in the trust area00:09:58
no whose money I never take remember00:10:00
I never add anyone00:10:01
I never write to anyone and in general00:10:05
always require some kind of verification00:10:07
100% and basically no one else00:10:11
just don't give your money to00:10:13
Unfortunately, these cases have become more frequent00:10:15
fraud in case of loss of money on00:10:18
the basis of this in general Be careful I00:10:20
you have been warned OK00:10:23
and yes, here are the fraudulent channels by the way00:10:25
there is no chat, but there is one in my channel now00:10:28
Please note that above my posts00:10:30
there is always a quantity in the channel00:10:33
comments you press the button and go00:10:36
to chat this is a distinctive feature00:10:38
my channel00:10:40
Okay, okay, what else does investment count?00:10:46
Federitin places they think that we have00:10:49
The US is on the verge of a recession00:10:53
maybe we can avoid this, we are now too00:10:57
Let's talk again. There is an assumption that we00:10:59
We'll still achieve a soft landing00:11:01
economics and today's topic itself00:11:03
saying that it sounds like can it?00:11:04
the economy and the US will softly settle down without a recession00:11:07
Yes Will it be here or won't it be00:11:10
or not to be our main question00:11:12
communities and so we will try00:11:15
We are trying to answer it more accurately00:11:18
answer every time of course clearly00:11:20
no one will give an answer and no one knows00:11:22
I'm not 100% sure what will happen00:11:24
there is still tomorrow00:11:26
certain data from which we can00:11:28
make some conclusions and00:11:30
calculate some probability Will there be00:11:33
there will be a connection or not. What about others?00:11:36
countries like the Eurozone according to Fidel00:11:37
is in recession with this completely00:11:40
agree00:11:42
United Kingdom that is Britain too00:11:44
China is in recession too00:11:47
is in recession It seems to have started00:11:48
come out of it, that is, appeared00:11:50
some kind of impulse00:11:52
positive after they left00:11:55
restrictions on covid-19 but00:11:58
maybe that's too much00:12:01
it was premature00:12:02
with a statement of the fact that China has withdrawn from00:12:06
recession No, I warned you about this00:12:08
China is the largest industrial00:12:11
platform of the world they produce for everything00:12:13
world if the world economy happens00:12:16
stop the recession then no early00:12:20
China's recovery will be soon00:12:22
can't do everything because China00:12:24
serves these countries if they have them there00:12:26
reduction in demand and fall in demand as00:12:30
they will come out of recession if they00:12:32
their economy is export-oriented00:12:34
it’s not logical there was a splash they rose00:12:38
some parameters but we immediately fell00:12:42
Now we’ll talk about this a little too00:12:43
there is a lot about China in China now00:12:45
problems are especially associated with developers00:12:47
You probably saw my post yesterday in00:12:51
telegram where I showed how he reacts00:12:53
Chinese developers00:12:56
they fell by 10 there 15 percent at once00:12:59
everything in general, this crisis continues there00:13:04
not only Ever Granda but also others00:13:06
even larger companies00:13:09
show weakness very strongly and this00:13:12
very worrying00:13:14
investors and this increases risks00:13:17
we get a lot00:13:20
sources of potential black swans00:13:23
it could be the real estate market00:13:25
China which will eventually blow it may00:13:28
be and00:13:29
market00:13:32
mortgages for example in the USA He has not yet00:13:37
overheating but there may be something else00:13:39
the problem is that banks00:13:41
may significantly lose profitability due to00:13:46
that00:13:47
we have high mortgage rates and its00:13:51
They just take this factor and that’s what they don’t00:13:54
take out a mortgage because prices are expensive00:13:56
housing and servicing these Debts are very00:13:59
large, that is, the mortgage rate is 7.500:14:01
percent it's expensive, yes, that is, it00:14:03
has grown rapidly recently00:14:05
at least double the payments00:14:07
mortgage prices have increased00:14:09
everything is very bad00:14:12
applications for future mortgages with us00:14:14
are being reduced00:14:16
what could this lead to?00:14:18
why could this be a black swan then00:14:21
that the US housing market is at least me00:14:25
I don’t remember exactly now, at least 3000:14:27
percent of GDP is used, that is00:14:30
accordingly if This market00:14:31
everything starts to cool down sharply00:14:34
the rest is this thirty percent00:14:37
the share of GDP begins to stabilize this00:14:40
may cause contraction00:14:42
stop in GDP growth recession00:14:45
ok ok00:14:47
what else on corporate earnings income00:14:51
are declining and I will tell you today00:14:53
I got an interesting slide Which00:14:56
directly illustrates why00:14:58
corporate profits may be the most00:15:00
will begin to decline in the near future, that is00:15:03
please wait for the slide I think00:15:05
you will really need something to think about00:15:06
useful regulation while tight then00:15:09
what we have is still dwindling00:15:10
[music]00:15:12
mass M2 on our market00:15:16
The Federal Reserve's balance sheet is shrinking. We have a very00:15:19
high stakes the last meeting was00:15:21
with an increase in this rate and not yet00:15:23
this rate is expected to decrease today00:15:25
We'll also talk about the reason for this00:15:27
happens but we note that00:15:29
regulation is still tight that's when00:15:32
she will move on to stimulating this already00:15:33
will most likely relate to the phase00:15:35
recession00:15:36
Well, here are the reserves. The reserves are already interesting.00:15:39
reserves this parameter is already demonstrated00:15:42
attitude towards the recession phase I am again in00:15:44
already gave you on my Telegram channel00:15:46
latest data on sales rates and rates00:15:50
inventory growth or decline and you can see there00:15:53
that our inventory and supplies are falling and00:15:56
sales are falling but still00:16:00
sales are falling faster than inventory and00:16:06
this can be called conditionally again00:16:10
Let's conditionally if we take this one00:16:13
here's a cube00:16:16
this cube for such a distance we00:16:19
We are at the beginning of this phase, not here00:16:21
here somewhere here what's here00:16:23
our stock is already starting sharply and00:16:26
Sales are already slowly starting00:16:28
improve Why are they improving here00:16:30
Because the Fed has already moved to00:16:33
stimulation he is already pumped up00:16:35
free money stimulates the market00:16:37
purchases, that is, he has already moved on to00:16:41
artificial respiration That's just00:16:43
it turns out that we will see an improvement00:16:46
sales only after the start of stimulation00:16:48
it doesn't work any other way unfortunately00:16:50
for this reason it can be considered that00:16:53
it will get worse get worse eventually00:16:55
we will go into recession most likely00:16:58
So00:17:00
this is what the US writes is in a phase00:17:03
late expansion cycle while00:17:05
growing likelihood of a recession in the second00:17:07
half of 2023, that is, they expect00:17:10
after all, at the end of 23 years in the second00:17:12
In half, the beginning of a recession may still begin00:17:15
maybe we are already in a recession later00:17:16
will say after the fact we were in a recession00:17:18
guys remember we were there in August00:17:21
recession remember this may happen00:17:23
such00:17:26
Judging by the picture of Russia in the early phase00:17:29
Russia in general may be a little bit00:17:32
another have a cycle we00:17:35
we still belong to the world00:17:38
economy because00:17:40
the country is bound by supplies to00:17:43
international markets of their00:17:44
energy carriers of their materials so00:17:46
further But00:17:48
it's too bad we've moved too far away from00:17:52
free economy where these are just00:17:55
signs they belong to capitalist00:17:57
economic system when it is free00:17:59
When there are many counterparties, yes there are00:18:00
The central bank that regulates this00:18:03
everything but overall it’s all so spontaneous00:18:05
a little bit Here we have crossed Russia a little bit00:18:08
switched to politics00:18:11
such00:18:14
there is no definite planning yet00:18:17
a planned economy is naturally far from00:18:19
smoothly the economy but certain ones00:18:22
elements00:18:24
directive economy they appear here00:18:27
In general, some kind of strange economy I00:18:29
I think that in Russia it does not fall under00:18:32
these are all the phases I think that’s why she00:18:35
there is no article here in the system00:18:38
evaluate this way she is like that00:18:40
specific therefore here if you want00:18:43
find out what will happen to the economy00:18:45
Russia probably at the moment00:18:49
today you do not need an analyst who00:18:52
studied in Western patterns and that's all00:18:56
definitely doesn’t work for Russian now00:18:57
economics all this information but rather00:19:00
you need a fortune teller Yes who will get it00:19:03
your crystal ball and see the future00:19:06
light at the end of the tunnels I'm not ready now00:19:10
to be such a fortune teller therefore in Russia00:19:12
I will not speak out absolutely Nobody00:19:14
knows what will happen next to her00:19:15
perspective okay00:19:17
moving on index of working conditions00:19:21
grew up in July, that's what I'm talking about00:19:25
said that before recessions there is always00:19:28
Our labor market is very strong Well, just00:19:31
it happened catastrophically00:19:33
before the 2000 recession Look here00:19:36
here it was before the recession00:19:39
2008 this happened before00:19:42
recession 2000 2020 By the way, if00:19:46
someone has been with me for a long time I already have my channel00:19:48
exists for a long time You probably remember that00:19:51
I talked about it in '1900:19:53
recession When there is still no kind00:19:54
was And it started in 202000:19:57
tied with to the view But in reality00:19:58
signs of recession began much earlier00:20:00
this is where she was before00:20:02
economic after all was just like her00:20:05
would have been acquitted00:20:06
[music]00:20:07
this this00:20:10
virus but00:20:12
after does not mean due to yes that is00:20:15
it turns out that00:20:17
Now we see the same analytics00:20:20
we have a similar situation in the labor market00:20:21
as strong as possible And it interferes00:20:24
in fact, further development00:20:26
economy00:20:27
Capitalist Economy That's how it works00:20:29
Unfortunately, here is the market condition index00:20:32
labor tracked using End City00:20:34
Fat Yes, this is such an active indicator00:20:38
strong grew completely in July00:20:40
restored that is completely00:20:43
returning You see here It was00:20:45
we have now fully returned the fall00:20:48
restored partly recently00:20:51
reduction in terms of level is still00:20:54
looks strong and00:20:56
we are high enough00:20:59
compared to historical data00:21:01
strong job market point here I think00:21:04
that no one has any doubts about the design and here’s another00:21:07
one illustration recession not starting00:21:09
with minimal unemployment that's more00:21:12
Wide picture from 1950 just so00:21:15
we definitely saw that this was a pattern00:21:17
every time we have a minimum value00:21:20
were before the recession every time00:21:22
Yes, she started from different levels00:21:26
because each business cycle has its own00:21:28
there was a specificity here, there was a period00:21:30
very serious increase in inflation and there00:21:33
uh unemployment persisted for a long time00:21:35
high here Well, if we take it00:21:37
last period since there00:21:40
1990 somewhere Yes, from here00:21:42
this is the last 30 years then the level with00:21:46
which started the recession was always00:21:48
approximately the same Yes, right here, right here.00:21:50
recession happens here too00:21:54
it turns out that we are here now00:21:56
that is, well, miracles don’t usually happen00:21:58
nevertheless, this indicates potential00:22:02
falls and Let's talk about00:22:04
[music]00:22:06
the likelihood of a soft soft landing is about00:22:10
as a matter of fact, he said that I got it00:22:12
such an interesting tweet00:22:14
Let me translate00:22:16
Maybe I screwed up, but I'll try00:22:20
a simple demonstration of why00:22:21
the probability of a soft landing is zero00:22:23
so I wrote it00:22:25
unemployment is three and a half00:22:27
percent if the current disinfection00:22:30
pulse00:22:31
Well, this is a reduction in inflation, disinflation is00:22:35
a decrease in inflation therefore results00:22:38
return from 9 percent to 4 percent00:22:41
current it's officially called00:22:43
disinflationary impulse is not accompanied00:22:46
lower demand and higher00:22:49
level of unemployment then with full00:22:51
employment lower inflation will lead00:22:54
to an increase in disposable income that00:22:56
logical00:22:57
And the risks associated with energy00:23:00
food surges will be00:23:01
contribute to continued inflation00:23:03
wages and restart00:23:05
inflation wave version 2.0 which00:23:08
will bring down bonds stocks So he's completely00:23:11
not soft but quite hard00:23:13
it turns out that if we avoid now00:23:16
we will have a very tough recession00:23:18
future option00:23:19
Yes, and we are essentially inevitable, but simply00:23:22
let's extend it, I don't know if we'll delay it00:23:25
away I think the Fed understands this00:23:27
That's why such a tough policy seems to be00:23:30
now everyone is saying well dude look at00:23:33
We're already at three percent inflation, come on already00:23:34
reduce bets Everything is good but no one00:23:40
in a hurry they are decreasing even increased00:23:41
last time Why apparently you know what to00:23:44
what will it come to? Why suffer for a long time?00:23:47
it’s all about digesting and trying to get it out00:23:50
if it's easier to call some00:23:52
short-term decline recession in this00:23:55
decline We're going to be hit by this with00:23:58
the labor market will be hit hard and that’s it00:24:00
It will begin to recover again, that is00:24:02
It's much faster than long and00:24:04
painful here00:24:06
trying to land it's easier to drown this one00:24:10
hippopotamus straight knock him down and then00:24:12
it works like this to get out of the swamp00:24:14
and getting a hippopotamus out of the swamp00:24:17
very good job because when we00:24:20
when we start stimulating markets00:24:22
start printing money And then we can00:24:24
start printing bankers Very good00:24:26
make money from this, and even more so those who know00:24:29
bankers when they know exactly when00:24:31
these buyback programs are starting00:24:32
program amount of mitigation and so on00:24:34
then they buy up cheaper ones in advance00:24:36
assets in this panic and very good00:24:39
earns therefore appears00:24:41
possibility of a new harvest cycle00:24:44
they can earn money again00:24:48
Here00:24:49
Well, it turns out that mathematics00:24:53
equilibrium is not applicable to the system00:24:55
which has a limited supply00:24:57
strength when exposed to external shocks00:24:59
demand should begin to weaken00:25:02
ur is00:25:04
yes, that is, the unemployment rate will rise00:25:06
the only question is how deep00:25:09
there will be a recession, not whether there will be one00:25:12
in general, and here on the right you have more graphs00:25:14
yes, I already posted it on telegram too00:25:19
quantity00:25:21
news headlines that00:25:25
uses the word Soft Landing and then00:25:27
there is a soft landing as we see everyone00:25:29
just before even serious00:25:31
recessions have always been our word00:25:33
softly here, what happened next00:25:36
it was 2000, the dot-com crisis was here00:25:40
there was a peak then we had the crisis of 200800:25:43
years and now we are here00:25:45
number of mentions of Osaflanding we have00:25:48
maximum Well, as they say Welcome00:25:51
Welcome to the board is called because00:25:53
that history shows that there are none00:25:55
soflandings of such a situation Well, no00:25:58
It turns out Well I couldn’t Sorry00:26:03
1929 will repeat itself I don’t know I’m not sure00:26:06
in the twentieth year there were different conditions00:26:07
another monetary system may be00:26:10
worse Guys, don't think it's 2900:26:12
This is the worst option and there are worse00:26:16
but of a different type, for example00:26:20
someone may have forgotten but00:26:23
In 1923, inflation in Germany was00:26:26
there's something like 30 thousand percent there00:26:28
some kind of not just hyperinflation hyper00:26:31
hyper-duper inflation also happens00:26:33
anything can happen, so don't forget that00:26:37
everything is fine now and tomorrow too00:26:39
everything will definitely be fine because00:26:41
yesterday it was good and the day before yesterday it was good00:26:42
good, but tomorrow may not be so good00:26:44
ok we have to assess the situation according to00:26:47
least00:26:48
development, yes, that is, we see that now00:26:51
here is the data that we receive00:26:54
I analyze them, I don’t think Armageddon00:26:57
I need to make you panic and they drive you00:27:00
no one's shorts, I'm not really like that myself00:27:02
I’m already actively fumbling I’m very modest shorts00:27:05
lie and remain silent and very small00:27:07
Moreover, he began to bribe a little more00:27:09
all sorts of papers in the hope of development00:27:12
commodity super cycle That is, I generally00:27:14
Not00:27:15
Nesumer Bear is not a super hedonist00:27:18
now but I'm waiting for this sharp fall00:27:20
that's when it starts, that's when we'll see00:27:23
a sharp phase of some volatility00:27:24
some kind of impulse will rise00:27:26
then I will of course become more active perhaps00:27:29
I’ll hit with bigger shoulders but00:27:32
now no now I'm sitting on the fence and00:27:34
I'm poking around at the court, it seems to me if something00:27:38
The mess will begin in earnest, it will begin00:27:40
in September usually in September comes with00:27:43
holidays and markets fall September-October00:27:46
falling and now closer to November it is already00:27:49
stabilizes and by December we have00:27:50
Christmas rally00:27:52
and everything comes back up again Maybe00:27:55
maybe so this time or maybe not I don’t know in00:27:58
anyway we don't know the future and I00:28:01
I am guided by the facts and I will give them to you00:28:04
I am informing you and I am not asserting anything, but simply00:28:06
I'm broadcasting them I hope you like it00:28:10
So00:28:12
the next tweet is also just interesting00:28:15
food for thought here is what it says00:28:18
By the way, this is an interesting author they have00:28:21
paid subscription is very serious00:28:24
Guys in the USA now there is the first00:28:27
record household debt of 1700:28:29
trillion dollars second record 1200:28:32
trillion mortgage loans third00:28:34
Record 16 trillion auto loans they00:28:37
have grown a lot lately00:28:39
record 16 trillion student00:28:41
loans00:28:43
And by the way, there is a moratorium on interest payments00:28:46
on student loans which was00:28:49
imposed in 2020 it will be canceled soon00:28:52
And00:28:53
Well, the load is still increasing to00:28:57
I don't know what will happen there in terms of00:29:00
decrease in purchasing power00:29:01
population in general the possibility of payment00:29:04
Maybe some things will start there00:29:05
debt grow fifth point00:29:07
record debt on credit00:29:09
one trillion dollar cards00:29:11
here we mean the total volume for a long time00:29:13
on credit cards to me today00:29:15
asked Dmitry What is the delay00:29:18
credit cards This is a very important point00:29:20
because credit cards00:29:23
this is a very expensive loan Well, how is it with us?00:29:26
such a microcredit, yes, that is, there00:29:28
the percentages there are from 20 to 35 percent00:29:30
per annum comes to some00:29:32
credit cards that is very expensive00:29:34
credit and, accordingly, if it is already growing00:29:37
and this loan Well, this is in my opinion00:29:40
indicates that there is not enough00:29:41
money in the system people Well, where they give00:29:44
usually at this interest rate00:29:46
banks reduce00:29:49
requirements for issuer quality are more precise00:29:52
the quality of the borrower and accordingly00:29:55
anyone can basically take out this loan00:29:58
almost everyone understands that not everyone but00:30:01
almost anyone And now he is active00:30:04
growing, I'll show you this slide later, but I have00:30:06
in principle, he is also on the telegram like this00:30:09
here's the delay so far, the minimum is two s00:30:12
half a percent on these loans00:30:15
but it continues to grow00:30:20
several months, I think, that is, she00:30:23
the minimum has already begun to rise and we have seen00:30:25
previous peaks previous crises00:30:29
for example 2008 there is a delay00:30:31
reached 7.5 percent00:30:33
that is, she was there 75 percent00:30:36
Let's see. That is, it's just overdue00:30:40
usually grows during a recession they00:30:42
at the beginning00:30:44
So00:30:46
finish this one00:30:48
tweet total mortgage debt currently00:30:51
time more than twice the peak00:30:53
2006 level meanwhile 3600:30:57
percent of Americans owe00:30:58
credit card more than savings00:31:01
the average now, in my opinion, is seven and a half00:31:03
thousand to 75 thousand dollars per person00:31:07
adult person Here is the credit debt00:31:09
maps current moment This is more than00:31:13
average savings Well, it’s logical because00:31:16
Not everyone actually has savings there.00:31:18
is there00:31:19
total savings now00:31:23
In my opinion, the total savings are about 90000:31:28
billions00:31:29
everything in the system and there are more credits00:31:32
trillion it turns out yes it turns out that00:31:35
exceeded the mark00:31:38
student loan payments are due00:31:40
recover for the first time in 2020 and this00:31:43
despite the fact that mortgage rates00:31:45
balances just reached 7.1 percent00:31:49
credit card sales hit record highs00:31:51
25 percent, this is what I talked about very much00:31:53
dangerous loan00:31:55
Well, the author states that we are fighting00:31:59
inflation through debt It can't00:32:01
end well00:32:03
again, I’m not claiming anything00:32:05
just food for thought but here it is00:32:08
Let's now slide over00:32:10
about the industrial00:32:13
production Who doesn't know what PMI is?00:32:16
index that shows how much00:32:18
demand for goods rises or falls00:32:21
durable because it00:32:23
survey makes purchasing managers and00:32:26
they answer Yes, I have a demand in RS00:32:29
compared to the previous month No00:32:30
me demand has dropped compared to00:32:32
the previous month it turns out if00:32:34
more than half answered Yes, it means it has grown00:32:36
our demand has increased and the value is more than 5000:32:39
percent And if below 50 it means more00:32:42
number of respondents answered no00:32:45
the demand for us has fallen, that is, it gets00:32:48
such a predictor predictor of the future00:32:49
industrial production and demand for00:32:52
the most important thing for him is, well, it works out00:32:55
us for several months in a row00:32:58
we see the negative meaning of drinking00:33:00
now here's 46 400:33:03
an interesting fact was noticed here00:33:05
guys from one agency they saw00:33:07
discrepancy between00:33:10
Our GDP seems to have grown, but00:33:14
At the same time, our pmi continues to fall00:33:16
This is a race correlation, it’s interesting00:33:19
Write later in the comments Maybe00:33:21
You00:33:22
you understand well enough00:33:24
macroeconomics Explain to us why this is00:33:27
I don't really understand what's going on either00:33:32
Yes Nevermind 32 percent on a credit card00:33:36
this happens guys Well, how is it with us?00:33:38
microcredit is the same, they just have00:33:40
this is the form of credit card they have with this00:33:43
banks do it, we do it00:33:45
swindlers and there the banks are doing this and00:33:48
someone started telling me today too00:33:49
Diman takes loans and credit cards00:33:52
in the USA for cashbacks in general it is00:33:56
charity is just marketing00:33:58
attracting guys Well, of course, someone00:34:00
takes for cashbacks maybe three00:34:02
person actually if it weren't00:34:04
would it be beneficial for the banks?00:34:06
were busy wake up guys We're in00:34:08
capitalism if banks do it00:34:10
They take risks, they give away in essence00:34:13
unsecured loans to the public How do you00:34:16
Do you think they're taking risks? Yes, they're taking risks.00:34:18
so they want a refund at their own risk00:34:21
they obviously make money if they didn't00:34:24
they wouldn't make money on it00:34:25
risk so much00:34:26
because they give their money and00:34:29
no need to say that this is just for the sake of00:34:32
damn it's funny that credit cards are growing00:34:35
just because people want cashbacks Well00:34:37
this is nonsense No one of the reasons why00:34:40
she's growing00:34:41
credit card credit is00:34:43
the availability of this loan to many apparently00:34:45
not enough to maintain current00:34:47
standard of living money and they are already enjoying00:34:49
your credit limits00:34:51
Well, because before that they were cutting back00:34:54
savings that is now already00:34:56
savings are minimal our savings00:34:57
three times less than before the pandemic00:35:00
level among the population and this is growing sharply00:35:04
debt on loans, that is, it means I do00:35:06
the withdrawal of people is already lacking savings in00:35:09
including to maintain current00:35:11
consumption means they are already getting into00:35:15
super expensive loan00:35:17
this is actually a classic of course but00:35:20
it is a fact00:35:22
OK00:35:26
what's wrong with small businesses? Let's00:35:28
Let's see the profit of a small business00:35:30
still under pressure00:35:31
because fewer and fewer companies00:35:34
has positive dynamics00:35:36
arrived in July, that is, they show here00:35:41
in annual change00:35:44
How does the profitability of a business mall change?00:35:49
business is small company small00:35:51
business and now we see that he has us00:35:53
the value now minus 30 percent is00:35:56
it00:35:59
can not see00:36:01
month to month, yes, that is, minus 3000:36:04
percent00:36:06
this is very00:36:08
It's unfortunate that it's a small business in general. I'm so00:36:11
I've been feeling this way for a long time now00:36:14
Although the look is very big00:36:17
part of the US economy So00:36:25
what we see here despite00:36:28
continuing decline in the percentage of small00:36:30
enterprises, that is, few businesses00:36:32
reporting higher holiday pay00:36:34
prices this blue line is on you on the chart00:36:37
only five percent said they were bad00:36:39
selling your most important problems by00:36:42
as of July00:36:44
but to be honest we saw a similar picture00:36:46
before the last recession I showed here00:36:49
on the chart We have this percentage too00:36:52
was low and the value started here00:36:56
fall here now we see the same thing00:36:58
value drops this percentage is low What00:37:01
this is falling this is falling00:37:03
Prices00:37:05
goods and services that are produced in low quantities00:37:07
enterprise that is, they hardly see00:37:10
we will see revenue growth here because00:37:13
at least our growth rate00:37:16
are being reduced00:37:18
Here00:37:20
that is, a little business is fine for me00:37:22
Let's now talk about more00:37:24
global and forecast from the World Bank00:37:27
As promised, Outlook July 23 was released00:37:30
of the year00:37:32
Well, let me explain right away, it says World here00:37:36
output Yes this is a global release What is it00:37:40
output in the economy output in00:37:42
economy is the quantity00:37:44
goods or services produced for00:37:48
specific period of time of the company00:37:49
industry or country regardless00:37:52
they are consumed or used for00:37:54
further production That is00:37:56
much broader indicators00:37:58
economy than the shafts in domestic product00:37:59
GDP which is limited mainly00:38:02
final products, that is, finished00:38:05
products products and services And here's how00:38:07
would be general, that is, a broader understanding00:38:10
than GDP and here we see the following picture00:38:13
We see what we have00:38:15
forecasts Pro actions a-a for different00:38:20
countries are a little different, here in the USA we have00:38:22
projection for decline that is, we they are not00:38:25
see world banks improving output00:38:27
global in the USA Although someone says00:38:29
that there is new industrialization, everything is there00:38:32
everything grows there and smells, but I can’t see it yet00:38:34
industrialization occurs only in00:38:36
one sector semiconductors and about it00:38:38
Already made an issue with me Look at00:38:40
channel they are betting on00:38:42
semiconductor and everything else and00:38:43
investment in construction is minimal00:38:45
Well, more precisely, they didn’t grow up, they’re like that00:38:48
remained as is That's accordingly00:38:51
Well, such a sharp jump in production we00:38:54
near term at least00:38:55
The World Bank does not see us in Germany00:38:59
see a sharp drop look twenty00:39:00
first year 2.6 1.8 - 0.3 - this is a recession00:39:04
And only in the twenty-fourth year we00:39:07
we will leave the 30th session00:39:09
France has the same sharp decline00:39:11
although not in the negative zone, but already in00:39:13
bordering this value and then only00:39:16
rebound on Ita we have a drop down to 2400:39:20
year in Spain is also falling Well, Japan has00:39:24
all this had minimal significance for us00:39:25
time seems to fluctuate there00:39:28
United Kingdom also has a sharp decline00:39:30
here is a small rebound in 2400:39:34
To China China May also slow down 2400:39:37
year But India can start the other way around00:39:39
grow Well, in Russia there are even00:39:42
if we had twenty-two00:39:44
minus 2.1 percent of GDP, yes it turns out00:39:48
projection for 23 years 1.5 someone from00:39:52
I periodically visit Russian officials00:39:54
The tape hits the news saying that00:39:57
most likely it will be more than two percent00:39:58
This year maybe who knows00:40:01
military output is growing very strongly and00:40:04
so we can probably assume that00:40:06
GDP will be more than two percent but00:40:10
again, I've already said this a hundred times00:40:11
mainly grows on military issue A00:40:14
this is unproductive GDP growth00:40:16
unproductive income therefore00:40:20
We'll see00:40:22
in the medium term this may come back to haunt00:40:23
a little because there are statistics00:40:26
showing that then it turns out00:40:29
rather a negative effect, but there is a nuance00:40:33
if it's like the USA00:40:35
who did the same thing did in00:40:39
during the Second World War if00:40:41
will be able to convert quickly00:40:44
that is, to make a military conversion00:40:46
release of military production in00:40:48
civil proceedings that is00:40:50
begins to produce dual-use00:40:52
then it might work like it did in the USA00:40:56
and Germany including what Germany00:40:59
after the war, also with military release Well00:41:02
there was devastation there, of course, but still00:41:05
all this power was then used00:41:07
civil proceedings00:41:09
OK00:41:11
so here it is00:41:13
for now the projection is well discreet, I still want it00:41:17
note that almost never like this00:41:21
type institutions like the World Bank and00:41:24
other IMF and other other practically00:41:27
never could have predicted the recession00:41:32
they are never in their forecasts00:41:33
indicated that there would be a fall therefore00:41:35
here Yes show positive00:41:37
meanings but this does not mean that they are 23 years old00:41:38
there will be a plus, there may even be a minus00:41:39
For example, if there is a sharp phase of recession00:41:42
it starts that is, they usually00:41:44
don't pawn their models it's just me00:41:46
I’m already speaking on my own behalf And regarding the market00:41:49
there were many grains, there were many questions, what00:41:51
grain crisis blah blah blah But here I am00:41:53
I pulled it out specifically for the grain00:41:55
In my opinion, the grain market00:41:57
stabilized We see that these are the prices00:42:00
on00:42:01
grain began to decline from peak00:42:04
values Well, it’s true we are still00:42:06
still in at least the middle of it00:42:09
range minimum value were 201700:42:11
year A And by the way, this graph is possible00:42:15
indicates to us that the commodity00:42:18
supercle most likely did not start00:42:20
in the twentieth year and in the seventeenth00:42:23
hence it seems to me that he can00:42:25
continue00:42:26
but so far we see stabilization regarding00:42:30
production yes that is grain production00:42:33
now the world leader in grain production00:42:37
is China00:42:38
now according to forcast this is the forecast for00:42:43
It is predicted that in 23 he will produce00:42:45
138.5 million tons00:42:48
European Union00:42:52
almost the same and 138 8 a little more00:42:56
India we have 110 Russian Federation 8200:42:59
2 million tons Well, America brings up the rear00:43:04
top five 45 million tons That00:43:06
there are five leaders and we see that00:43:09
changed dramatically in production only00:43:12
Russian Federation -20% more precisely00:43:15
forecast again Yes, we are twenty-third00:43:17
We don’t know how the year will end yet, but we00:43:19
there is such a forecast in Australia too00:43:22
28% you will be reduced in Ukraine by 1500:43:26
By the way, there are even fewer competitors than00:43:28
Russian Federation Kazakhstan minus 1400:43:31
percent I don't know what this is connected with00:43:33
there is a special one probably00:43:36
You can read the analytics Well, here they are00:43:40
they give us forecasts about demand and00:43:44
suggestions yes In my opinion Why me00:43:47
I think it has stabilized00:43:49
We have World production, that is, global00:43:53
balance of production and consumption00:43:55
look 776 and 7 will be produced00:44:00
tenths of millions of tons per year of grain and00:44:04
eventually consumed recycling00:44:07
consumption00:44:09
780 and three tenths of a million tons that is00:44:13
consumption will be slightly higher than00:44:15
production and thus a little00:44:17
it will hit ending Stock stock it's like00:44:21
inventory stocks stocks grain stocks on00:44:24
granaries00:44:26
That is, we get a little00:44:28
stock will be reduced but nothing here00:44:29
there's nothing wrong with us in our twenty-second year00:44:31
there were 295 million reserves now we have00:44:33
38 will remain That is, I believe that this is00:44:36
very stable performance so far00:44:38
reasons for the sharp rise in wheat prices00:44:42
It seems like we don’t have it, but a trader can00:44:45
play this card honestly00:44:49
2022 was actually played out precisely00:44:52
card Yes because00:44:55
Prices00:44:57
wheat has grown greatly from 200 there roughly00:45:01
50 dollars to almost 350 dollars Then00:45:06
there is Well, more by 50%. at the same time we see00:45:09
that in the balance sheet we had nothing on00:45:11
Moreover, we produced more00:45:14
what was consumed was replenished accordingly00:45:18
reserves Yes, the second year This is what we have00:45:20
was a dangerous lean year turns out to be00:45:23
there are traders who can find a reason for this00:45:25
to the price because yes from the point of view00:45:29
the economy itself does not threaten us with famine We00:45:31
We see that we have decent reserves and00:45:34
production and consumption in our country00:45:35
stabilized but traders can this00:45:39
play the card as they want, that is00:45:41
some news about some news00:45:42
they can [ __ ] around there and everything will be fine00:45:44
move very wonderful it's like that00:45:48
main message00:45:49
[music]00:45:50
concerning00:45:52
another other source of inflation00:45:55
maybe we have a grocery store00:45:57
inflation We have inflation00:45:59
associated with high prices for00:46:01
energy carriers from increased00:46:05
costs for the delivery of goods and services to00:46:08
in this case, goods and here for delivery00:46:11
influences, of course, container rates00:46:14
transportation We see that they fell then00:46:17
there is essentially this market has stabilized00:46:18
where did they fall they fell to covid00:46:21
at times, that is, the pre-Covid period we have00:46:23
there were such bets here and we basically00:46:24
fell on them All I think is just this00:46:27
the crisis phenomenon is over00:46:29
period and that's it, I don't think it's worth it here00:46:33
What's next00:46:35
talk about00:46:39
liquidity conditions are here00:46:42
Here's the thing: I don't know how to eat00:46:46
specialized Golden type trackers00:46:48
sachs here are trackers or Global finational00:46:53
Condition index and so on That is, they00:46:56
show that it seems like ours00:46:58
financial conditions are improving, that is00:47:00
a decrease in this index shows that00:47:02
they are improving with us00:47:04
these improvements in financial conditions were00:47:06
beginning with00:47:09
The peak of the crisis when they launched and q.e.00:47:13
launched there00:47:15
zero rates other against you see00:47:18
us they this index dropped sharply00:47:20
until the beginning of the twenty-second year and00:47:24
this is a decrease this is an improvement00:47:27
financial conditions in our opinion00:47:28
I’m transferring to Kolkhozny. It turns out00:47:30
now they seem to be improving, but not everywhere00:47:33
Look they're improving00:47:37
developed economies and the USA00:47:41
with the economy, that is, in developing00:47:44
economies they are improving they are getting worse00:47:46
that is, it grows00:47:48
Well damn I started looking00:47:52
I'm watching00:47:54
Well, for example, Yes, for example, the situation may00:47:58
change In what sense are the coming00:47:59
will be on the market in a few months00:48:01
a huge amount of treasuries00:48:02
American you know this about00:48:04
the US government was a juggernaut they did this00:48:07
the money was actively spent during the period when00:48:09
they have reached lockdown, that is, more precisely00:48:12
not quite achieved but they achieved00:48:14
debt ceiling and they had somewhere00:48:17
approximately a six month period00:48:19
when they couldn't borrow any more money00:48:21
and spent their nest egg and now they00:48:25
will replenish this stash this account and00:48:31
approximately 254 billion dollars this one00:48:35
we will see additional missions in00:48:36
second half of the year, the total volume of loans in00:48:39
the second half of the year will be somewhere around 1.800:48:44
trillion dollars That is the second00:48:47
half 18 dollars will be in00:48:50
treasuries deal with this is a lot of volume00:48:53
At the same time, bills of exchange were issued in the amount of 48000:48:57
billion dollars in August-September00:48:58
that is, it’s still peak right now00:49:01
values go00:49:03
and this is all during the period when we have a balance00:49:06
Fed cuts $95 billion in00:49:09
month the question is where did we get the money?00:49:14
in principle, they didn’t answer once, yes, that is00:49:15
Let me literally draw here, I'm not00:49:19
I started doing it. I’ll just draw it on the cats.00:49:22
here we had00:49:24
the Fed's main source of liquidity00:49:28
balance00:49:29
And00:49:31
so the balance began to shrink00:49:34
wherein00:49:36
liquidity is decreasing at the same time00:49:38
there was a stash00:49:43
stash in the US government which in00:49:48
moment00:49:49
here from a place isolated from the market00:49:52
it00:49:54
pulled out the money and sent it to00:49:56
the market, that is, then the very fact is that00:49:59
the government is spending these nest eggs00:50:01
This market has stabilized a little00:50:05
liquidity what is happening now00:50:06
the state ceiling was raised for a long time and now00:50:09
the government entered the market and began00:50:12
This is a stash to actively replenish00:50:15
and plus borrow money against current00:50:18
deficit, that is, for financing00:50:20
the current deficit is very big money00:50:23
wore borrow and the question is where they came from00:50:26
started borrowing them from rpo, that is00:50:28
there was a creepy market of 2.5 billion00:50:31
a trillion almost a trillion dollars and now00:50:34
they offered a higher rate than00:50:37
in the RPO market and part of the liquidity00:50:40
dragged it has a positive effect on00:50:43
liquidity of the system Why Because in00:50:45
advertisements were like, well00:50:47
involvement involved as if00:50:49
such, how does money hang? Yes, at least00:50:53
use it like this or not00:50:55
Line of credit and here it is00:50:58
the one that the government began to pull out00:51:01
from repo money and borrow it and then she00:51:05
where does she put this money then?00:51:07
spends in the economy, yes, that is, she00:51:08
launches this money for a repo it turns out00:51:10
into the economy and thus liquidity00:51:12
5 hits the market but here's the value00:51:14
this rpo that is this this this this this this00:51:18
source of liquidity00:51:20
limited That is, you cannot00:51:22
do this endlessly and the government00:51:26
active borrowing continues and moreover00:51:29
And00:51:31
everyone predicts that the coming00:51:32
perspective00:51:33
The budget deficit will only grow and00:51:36
it will reach something like 1.8 in my opinion00:51:38
trillion by the year thirty00:51:41
and it’s logical we’re talking about this today00:51:44
Let's talk Very big anomaly Why00:51:46
Our economy seems to be growing and00:51:49
Government revenues from tax collection00:51:52
I also have a question that’s so interesting00:51:56
let's talk about it in general it's like for me00:51:58
it would be confusing, that is, yes, it seems like everything00:52:00
these synthetic indices show everything00:52:03
We're running out of liquidity00:52:06
is improving and everyone has changed so much00:52:10
this but firstly the prospects Well okay we00:52:15
figured out that there is a reason for this00:52:16
improvements are temporary but promising00:52:18
the outlook is foggy, first of all, we have00:52:20
big releases here Well, plus00:52:24
our inflation is receding00:52:27
we understand that00:52:36
the slides are not quite in order00:52:40
[music]00:52:42
Let me finish the deal here00:52:45
after all, there is a slide. Then it lies like this00:52:48
this is what the situation led to when00:52:51
they started by competing vigorously00:52:53
supplies and they began to offer more00:52:55
high rates of return on00:52:59
US government bonds increased and so00:53:01
our body image has actually fallen00:53:03
speaking, the reason for the fall of TLT is precisely this00:53:06
hole 100 doesn't know this is the fund00:53:07
bonds because it actively borrows and00:53:11
need to offer a higher bid and00:53:14
thus profitability increases When00:53:16
as profitability rises, our body falls00:53:17
the body of the bond and accordingly we see00:53:20
body reduction00:53:23
we'll talk again00:53:25
Well, you can lose, look at the last one00:53:28
my issue is the penultimate one to receive00:53:30
this one will be our last penultimate one00:53:32
according to TLC I looked at it in more detail00:53:35
probably need to say something extra00:53:37
Doesn't make sense about inflation00:53:39
inflation is receding We see what it is00:53:41
happens all over00:53:43
markets by and large United States in00:53:46
to a greater extent00:53:48
the eurozone is absolutely all about itself00:53:52
the developed countries00:53:54
our inflation is decreasing00:53:57
At the same time, here are Chinese export prices00:54:01
at all00:54:03
reached a record drop in recent years00:54:06
10 years that is00:54:08
record drop Big00:54:11
is Drop and decate that is00:54:14
biggest drop in decades00:54:17
get decades00:54:19
and we see that00:54:24
there are signs of deflation, yes that is00:54:26
analysts hint that this is all00:54:31
Every every first analyst that I00:54:34
I read they basically said everything about00:54:38
granny defleishin00:54:41
possible deflationary scenario in China00:54:46
Why why is China still important because00:54:50
China is industrial manufacturing00:54:52
it's written there00:54:55
demand is falling00:54:58
And00:55:00
goods deflation00:55:02
and high inventory levels00:55:07
causes the price to decrease, that is, the price00:55:11
such additional reductions here we are00:55:14
we see on this graph China00:55:17
really seem to be entering a period00:55:19
deflation is deflation usually00:55:24
satellite of recession, that is, during00:55:27
recessions demand drops sharply00:55:29
production we have a lot of goods we need00:55:32
sell they make discounts and prices start00:55:34
prices begin to fall it begins to decline00:55:38
one of the ways to stimulate demand00:55:40
until prices fall and deflation is always00:55:43
is a sign of recession Therefore yes in00:55:46
China is likely to experience deflation and Yes, that’s why00:55:48
we can assume that China is still00:55:50
is in recession because there00:55:52
deflation because they walk these things00:55:55
together they are always together moreover00:55:58
China has already moved on to simulating To00:56:01
they have in the Central Bank continuing00:56:03
they stimulate the economy very much00:56:05
low rates they start specials00:56:07
programs so on so on That is00:56:09
Everything points to a recession phase in China and00:56:12
until he came out on my mind00:56:14
Okay, let's talk about China00:56:19
let's talk about00:56:21
consumption in the USA, we see that00:56:24
Now consumption is falling more precisely Rate00:56:29
consumption remember that this is Grow00:56:32
parameters yes, that is, growth rates if00:56:34
they are above zero it's still00:56:37
consumption is growing and falling. So she is00:56:40
there is negative means us00:56:41
consumption is falling growth rate00:56:45
we started consuming a long time ago00:56:48
fall starting in 2021 Here But now00:56:52
we see a negative value00:56:55
and correspondingly00:56:57
we can talk about what really00:56:59
US consumption at least00:57:02
is slowing down or maybe already starting to fall00:57:04
I already said that this is accompanied00:57:07
basically reducing inventory but for now00:57:10
sales are falling faster than they are declining00:57:13
inventory00:57:14
that is, you cannot solve Perry's problem00:57:18
saturation of stocks yes that is so00:57:21
called00:57:23
the problem of overproduction yes that is00:57:26
when we have a lot of stock in our warehouses00:57:27
high and you can’t decide if you have00:57:30
sales do not exceed, that is, growth rates00:57:34
sales do not exceed the rate of decline00:57:37
reduction of inventories Well, that is logical.00:57:40
Do you have more sales?00:57:42
those are left and then they will be00:57:46
shrink only in this case and here00:57:48
now we still see both for now00:57:50
parameters fall but sales fall00:57:52
faster than inventory reduction00:57:56
in order to overcome this00:57:59
point to strengthen sales00:58:00
we need to move on to stimulation and what00:58:03
need to move on to stimulation00:58:04
state the fact that we are speaking00:58:09
what we see here is what usually happens00:58:12
before the recession there really is one00:58:14
Johnson Redbook is a weekly such well00:58:18
that is, it is the same as Retail sales00:58:21
But specifically tracking00:58:22
monitored parameter00:58:24
he's faster he's faster00:58:28
close to the real economy so00:58:30
we see negative values00:58:33
were during 2008 also deny00:58:38
values were during the 2020 crisis00:58:41
And now we have entered negative territory again00:58:43
zone only in this case, that is, well00:58:46
again strongly hints that we00:58:48
we are entering recession phases. We may already be in00:58:50
for her and for us there will be something like this00:58:52
movement in the end and then there will be a rebound00:58:55
once again I will repeat the rebound in the fall00:58:59
sales growth rate can only be00:59:01
after the start of stimulation without that00:59:04
you stimulate, you don’t sell, there are no miracles00:59:08
We'll talk about demand today00:59:12
as for the very use of It00:59:15
considered historically redundant00:59:18
look there is such a trending tempo00:59:21
line00:59:22
trend line00:59:24
That's the orange one that was00:59:28
Mantly Retail's natural growth rate00:59:32
sales monthly sales consumer and00:59:37
we see that after we gave away a bunch00:59:40
dough here, a bunch there, three and a half00:59:43
trillion dollars have grown sharply00:59:47
sales that is, we are now at00:59:50
surplus, that is, we deviated greatly00:59:52
From this from this normality Therefore00:59:55
Maybe we'll cut to these00:59:58
normality this reduction will be01:00:00
be, strictly speaking, an abbreviation01:00:03
market sales01:00:06
here we have a very important point, this is not01:00:10
some kind of interest, we have billions01:00:12
dollars That is, we have it absolutely01:00:14
magnitude01:00:16
absolute value green this line01:00:19
shows01:00:21
Exit to ukumulets yes that is01:00:26
excessive excessive sales are like this01:00:29
excesses excesses against the trend line01:00:32
which was here, that is, now we01:00:35
we see a reduction in these surpluses, that is, we01:00:37
we begin to approach this line01:00:39
might even be right here01:00:41
lines Will come here and then they will go01:00:43
together But it turns out that we are starting01:00:46
quietly eliminate these surpluses01:00:50
here we need to figure it out, this is unnecessary01:00:54
consumption is what started more01:00:55
buy frying pans, machines, vacuum cleaners and01:00:59
other or is it something else? Let's go here01:01:01
10 let's figure it out and here are the statistics We have01:01:03
yes we have prices for services01:01:06
continue to grow ahead of schedule That is01:01:08
it turns out that yes indeed on time01:01:10
pandemic, here they distributed money and01:01:13
jumped up sharply01:01:15
purchase01:01:17
Well, this is the price list, that is, the prices of goods01:01:20
So they jumped up and the purchases themselves01:01:24
goods jumped but after01:01:27
2021 here we are approximately01:01:30
have stabilized and prices are no longer01:01:32
changed so what is growing now01:01:34
inflation inflation is exceptional now01:01:36
due to rising cost of services01:01:39
continues to grow and it turns out that this is not01:01:43
overconsumption is not only01:01:45
buying new telephones there water pipes01:01:48
and others And this is exclusively growth01:01:51
the cost of the services you are used to01:01:53
people are there to stay01:01:55
you need to run on the spot. That is, it turns out01:01:58
now to consume the same services as01:02:01
and you have to pay more and more01:02:03
more and more01:02:04
that is, it’s not even unnecessary, it’s simple01:02:06
maintaining the current level but against the background01:02:09
rising prices for services is obtained from01:02:12
this graph like this01:02:13
So we see general consumption in the USA01:02:17
US private consumption is01:02:19
very important part of GDP If you01:02:22
look at this graph you will see that01:02:24
approximately 70 percent01:02:27
from GDP hdp this is Person yes that is01:02:32
personal consumption01:02:34
where we see this correlation is preserved01:02:37
at least in 2002 That is, this is the share01:02:39
doesn't change if she was still here01:02:41
78 she was somewhere in the area there01:02:43
62%, now it is 68%. and this01:02:47
stability yes that is01:02:49
stable, that is, one 2/3 of the economy01:02:51
depends on the private consumer therefore01:02:55
We call it consumer economics because01:02:57
what really is consumption01:02:58
very important01:03:00
And01:03:01
it turns out that we usually say01:03:04
that we need to stimulate the consumer01:03:06
so that he buys new goods01:03:09
doesn’t particularly consume goods along the way01:03:10
he doesn't need to be stimulated, he just01:03:13
raising prices for services01:03:15
which he cannot refuse01:03:18
medical services or from education or01:03:21
this is from something else, that is, he just01:03:23
continues to increase its consumption01:03:26
because there is no other choice of price01:03:29
growing up this is the situation now01:03:33
Let's look at this slide here01:03:36
nominal salary what if we you01:03:38
consumption This is a very important parameter01:03:41
GDP and from this private use01:03:44
depends on further movement or growth01:03:47
GDP then you need to understand how capable01:03:51
now this population is for consumption01:03:53
how big is their consumer01:03:56
ability and now we see that01:03:57
nominal salary here really01:03:58
growing and now look at01:04:03
this slide now in the US we are seeing growth01:04:07
nominal salaries01:04:10
growing faster than inflation rates01:04:14
it turns out that at this point we already have01:04:17
real wages are rising01:04:19
But01:04:21
But01:04:22
by the way in some01:04:24
in some countries Well, certainly some01:04:28
in almost all of them this is not true, inflation is obvious01:04:31
higher than wages you see inflation01:04:34
higher inflation is higher in Italy in general01:04:38
huge gap01:04:40
a huge gap, that is, the more01:04:42
the gap is worse for consumers01:04:45
consumption market01:04:46
in Italy in general it’s tough not only01:04:51
inflation is higher than wage growth01:04:56
so the pace is still falling, but they01:04:59
everywhere it basically falls, but here it’s straight01:05:02
that’s essential, yes, that’s what it’s for01:05:05
leads this leads to the fact that we have01:05:08
real salaries01:05:10
did not increase, that is, real incomes01:05:13
citizens fell 2012 guys here01:05:17
look01:05:18
we see a negative decline in the USA01:05:22
value and this is what we compare first01:05:27
quarter 22 With the first quarter 2301:05:29
year And here we have a cumulative up to01:05:33
changes01:05:34
starting from the 4th quarter of 19 to 401:05:38
quarter 22 cumulative changes01:05:40
negative The only one who01:05:42
grew up in real expression See here01:05:45
this stick is Little Blue, this is from Low Pay then01:05:50
there are low low01:05:56
low-income let's say population with01:05:59
low salary, that is, from low01:06:01
low salary they have a little01:06:03
has grown And everything else is middlepay And01:06:06
Our hype dropped and these are the main ones01:06:09
consumers in the economy of these guys01:06:12
they're just so supportive01:06:13
the infrastructure is simply supported by a common01:06:15
level of consumption in the economy But for01:06:17
as a matter of fact, we have a count of these01:06:19
normal economy you're growing Here you go01:06:22
here we have a negative value01:06:24
cumulative nineteenth year all01:06:26
[ __ ] it grew and guys I'm here01:06:29
I want to bomb, I don’t know what they think01:06:33
Probably many people have this topic in their heads and01:06:36
I don’t know how they think, but it turns out01:06:39
What01:06:41
our real wages have fallen, even who01:06:46
inflation which officially considers But to01:06:50
big questions for her01:06:52
did our price really rise by 8 at its peak?01:06:55
percent When we have real estate01:06:57
cost increased by 80 percent01:06:59
car there is 50 percent food there01:07:03
by 90 percent some categories on01:07:06
250 percent increased where the hell are these 801:07:09
what's in those eight percent?01:07:11
percent stuck, that is, the technique01:07:13
inflation calculation is very specific and01:07:16
from here we see strange things strange01:07:19
things01:07:20
Well, even in this case, even in this01:07:23
strange inflation calculation anyway01:07:26
our real surcharges have increased less and01:07:30
even in this situation it causes growth01:07:34
salaries cause business problem01:07:36
Let's look at the following slides01:07:42
Like this one for example01:07:47
The graph below shows the spikes01:07:51
disposable income associated with two01:07:53
government payments due to pandemic01:07:55
it also shows that after these01:07:58
payments disposable income was much01:08:00
below average purple lines01:08:03
shows total available01:08:04
income depending on the trend as01:08:06
excess income approaching zero01:08:08
associated with the pandemic, we all disappear01:08:11
these stashes here seem to have been eaten away01:08:14
we all have this effect completely01:08:16
eliminated this association of fact Okay01:08:20
digested but in fact what we have01:08:22
left we have left01:08:24
drop in real income of the population 201901:08:27
years as I said and plus it all led01:08:30
besides the label of goats that is the cost01:08:33
labor force has grown to record levels Look01:08:36
look at this chart very carefully and01:08:41
you won't see on black I'll put it on black01:08:43
that we previously had such01:08:46
the correlation drops as soon as we do01:08:51
so that they understand in different directions01:08:54
directed that is, blue is Profit01:08:57
The company's margin is 500, that is, net01:08:59
company profitability01:09:01
components of the s&p 500 index is blue01:09:04
line and the red line is just01:09:06
labor cost as a percentage and it01:09:10
the inverter is turned a little to01:09:13
it was clear to you And that’s what happened01:09:15
as soon as labor costs fell01:09:19
here from -401:09:24
she's here at -5 percent01:09:28
percent it fell to01:09:31
one percent01:09:35
That is, we are reducing the cost01:09:37
Of course, the company's workforce is growing01:09:40
profitability which is logical they should01:09:43
correlate these two01:09:44
parameter your cost is reduced01:09:46
labor force So you are profitable01:09:48
improves as soon as you have a working one01:09:51
power becomes more precious to you01:09:53
profitably decreasing it was in 2000 here01:09:56
during the crisis, the guy from 2008 too01:09:58
the worst thing that happened before this was that we were really falling01:10:00
increased increased This is the cost01:10:02
labor force and profitability began01:10:04
fall and in the end it all ended01:10:06
boom boom recession that's what it is now01:10:09
is happening01:10:10
is happening01:10:12
we have a strange situation01:10:16
profitability is growing01:10:19
and labor costs are rising01:10:24
some strange situation it seems to me01:10:26
these are the effects that appear due to01:10:28
incorrect calculations real real01:10:32
real inflation in my opinion01:10:35
again Write later in the comments01:10:37
maybe you can help me develop01:10:39
But what does the schedule give us?01:10:41
understand that most likely we have these01:10:44
the indicators are still coming back01:10:46
correlations because this thing01:10:48
continues to grow until01:10:51
he won't get screwed over the labor market, he won't01:10:54
will become weak again and then it will be possible01:10:57
hire labor with less01:10:59
expenses then she will turn around here But01:11:03
by now you will probably be01:11:05
recessions there are usually during a recession01:11:08
companies' profitability is still declining01:11:10
We01:11:12
are doomed to come back here a little01:11:16
to this value01:11:19
there's something statistically wrong here. Okay01:11:21
I asked big questions01:11:23
Let's move on01:11:26
this impact on inflation is not abating01:11:28
we are talking now about labr kos then01:11:31
labor costs We see that01:11:34
here it is01:11:37
ddp deflator yes that is it01:11:41
component of GDP inflation so here we are01:11:46
here we consider01:11:47
ertuier yes that is year year changes01:11:51
seasoned Just that is a little01:11:55
balanced with respect to seasonality01:11:58
on That is, it turns out softened like this01:12:00
we see that this very deflator or01:12:04
inflation rate it starts us01:12:06
go down these red lines go down but01:12:09
due to what01:12:11
due to01:12:13
a little bit of this Yes, we see a little bit01:12:16
decreased01:12:25
thereby01:12:27
due to this, strongly Yes we have01:12:31
decreased01:12:32
but not because of this01:12:35
just not at the expense of Labor Cost01:12:37
Lab Cost, that is, the cost of labor01:12:40
strength remains stable Here it is01:12:42
stable it does not change What is it01:12:46
means It means that until you decide01:12:48
problem with the market strong labor market O01:12:52
what Jerome actually says01:12:53
powell until you solve the problem with01:12:56
the labor market will not solve the problem with01:12:58
high inflation because this01:13:00
liber cost it's not going anywhere anymore01:13:03
other parameters can also01:13:05
start growing and again we have a deflator01:13:07
begins to grow, that is, not yet01:13:09
this problem will be solved nothing nothing01:13:12
will change01:13:13
this is how we see Constant01:13:16
again it is clear that high is high01:13:18
level because01:13:20
[music]01:13:22
the labor market is strong and companies are forced01:13:25
increase labor costs in order to01:13:28
to attract and close your01:13:30
vacancies that is a problem01:13:33
which the Fed is trying to solve01:13:37
and here the question is why tax01:13:41
receipts are reduced if the background01:13:43
wages and wage growth01:13:45
are high and markets are stable Could it be01:13:48
So01:13:49
low paid jobs in industry01:13:51
leisure and hospitality replaces01:13:53
high paying job that's what we are01:13:56
saw a sharp decline in tax revenues01:14:00
only before the most serious crises01:14:02
before the money of those Well01:14:06
that is, the dot-com bubble of 2000 before01:14:11
the 2008 crisis which they call01:14:14
jfkey this is a big financial crisis01:14:17
Global Finance Crisis01:14:19
well, accordingly now we are now01:14:21
we see the same meaning01:14:23
Why is this happening01:14:26
Here01:14:28
when consumers received stimulus01:14:31
payment of their cost to consume and01:14:34
ability to consume was limited01:14:36
supply chain problems01:14:38
reserves mandatory voluntary01:14:40
restriction and family behavior01:14:41
due to the pandemic meant that big01:14:44
some of the stimulus money was01:14:46
initially saved That is01:14:48
it turns out that we didn't have it there01:14:50
some services01:14:52
the restaurants there are all closed and people started01:14:56
save Yes, this is the first impulse01:14:59
savings see all these receipts here01:15:04
we started but then we started buying these01:15:09
goods started buying goods and it's like01:15:12
times caused a sharp01:15:13
a sharp rise in prices for goods because01:15:18
the economy was not ready for such a drastic01:15:21
demand for goods because of this01:15:24
supplies were destabilized01:15:27
increased in value of these chains01:15:29
supplies that is, they grew Castes and us01:15:32
[music]01:15:34
final sellers shifted prices01:15:36
buyers included it all In the end01:15:38
the cost of the goods is all logical in the end01:15:41
all this stash was spent on Pay01:15:44
attention the growth rate is more accurate the rate of decline01:15:47
nest eggs at this pace are reflected just01:15:50
a sharp increase in inflation that is01:15:52
so the goods have grown so sharply01:15:54
wore services to grow What does this mean01:15:58
quickly disappeared quickly liquidated01:16:00
now we are at levels01:16:05
the deficit turns out to be less than01:16:07
it was before the pandemic and01:16:12
What does it mean01:16:14
the following graph shows the jump01:16:16
savings corresponding to measures01:16:18
incentive diagram shows that01:16:20
consumer saved less than average01:16:22
after two were distributed01:16:24
giant government01:16:25
stimulating the economy and they01:16:27
used increased savings for01:16:29
consumption However, this is important01:16:32
cumulative personality savings now01:16:34
lower long-term trends and01:16:38
[music]01:16:39
I actually started with this and to01:16:42
I bring this up. The point is that consumers01:16:44
save less and significantly01:16:47
use excess savings01:16:48
incentive-related It appears that01:16:51
reduction in savings in aggregate01:16:52
will no longer contribute01:16:53
consumption is above trend, that is, the same thing01:16:56
what we saw above the trend01:16:59
We've run out of resources for this01:17:02
we devoured the stash and now we have moved on to01:17:06
sharp growth01:17:08
long on credit cards01:17:12
However, due to savings cuts01:17:13
consumers resorted to loans to01:17:16
increase your purchasing01:17:18
ability on the graph defined below01:17:19
shows a sharp increase in unextinguished01:17:22
credit card debt01:17:24
over a trillion dollars01:17:26
Okay, a little chaotic, a little too much01:17:29
Let's get the main idea: I'm a little bit myself01:17:31
I'll split it according to this economic01:17:33
block So, excessive consumption in01:17:37
dollars is caused primarily by the growth01:17:39
prices for services we found out, and01:17:42
now to support it01:17:44
consumption you need to get yours01:17:45
savings and take out an expensive loan01:17:48
credit cards have seen this again01:17:50
savings staff sevinx we have below01:17:53
strongly norms and01:17:56
Credit card debt is rising01:17:58
above normal and at a very high rate in01:18:01
lack of savings of the population already01:18:03
less affordable housing due to cost01:18:06
Mortgage interest rates have risen sharply01:18:09
almost doubled Double strike01:18:11
the family's ability to purchase housing is01:18:13
may lead to stagnation of sectors01:18:16
construction and, accordingly, to01:18:18
stopping GDP growth in this subsector01:18:21
that's 30 percent of GDP to support01:18:23
purchasing power of citizens01:18:25
the company needs to raise salaries01:18:27
but this also has a cost limit01:18:30
labor force is already at its maximum and soon01:18:32
this will lead to a drop in margins01:18:35
again, I showed you this graph01:18:37
what may affect the labor market and01:18:39
general mood in the economy01:18:41
Recession apparently cannot be avoided this time01:18:44
these are my main conclusions Okay01:18:48
I hope it was useful01:18:54
Dima, how much do you earn on YouTube?01:18:57
Well, I don’t know, maybe 300 bucks to go01:19:01
they still pay a little01:19:05
To be honest, I don’t even look at my news01:19:08
the bill arrives Well, just somewhere01:19:11
little comes, income has fallen very much01:19:14
monetization used to bring me01:19:16
some money is already some tangible01:19:20
2-3 thousand euros have now all fallen01:19:26
now we are working on our word of honor Okay01:19:29
let's move on to01:19:31
to the second block, what about the markets?01:19:34
So time goes by, he said01:19:39
what we see in the s&p 500 index01:19:41
continues beyond the concentration of Big Tech01:19:44
so-called companies we still have them01:19:47
call it flagship or funk This is Apple01:19:50
Microsoft Google Amazon NVIDIA Tesla01:19:54
and for this group they are allocated, it’s like01:20:00
the largest companies 10 largest01:20:02
company Now occupies more than 3001:20:04
percent s&p 500 index over01:20:07
concentration of a single company and01:20:09
these 10 companies are only two percent01:20:12
from all companies included in index 201:20:15
percent has a weight greater than 30 percent01:20:19
the remaining 490 companies have an average weight01:20:23
only 0.1401:20:25
more precisely, hundredths of a percent on shares01:20:29
Well01:20:32
we can probably say that slightly01:20:35
they are a little expensive Slightly overbought01:20:37
because the economy is here Take it01:20:40
Take even the names we have here in01:20:43
on this list even here I see we have01:20:46
company01:20:49
is the leader in absolute income in01:20:53
in your sector01:20:54
and let's say the same deep Morgen Chase01:20:57
who is also an absolute leader01:20:59
by income in the banking sector Here they are01:21:01
obviously, well, two people make money together01:21:06
much more than together01:21:10
earn Tesla or meta01:21:12
but at the same time the share of these companies is much01:21:15
higher than these companies, that is, it turns out01:21:17
a little unbalanced01:21:19
the index has now turned out and it’s not quite01:21:22
reflects the real economy that is01:21:24
real money is earned in some01:21:25
sectors and our capitalization01:21:27
is being formed in other sectors in other01:21:29
in companies this can lead to01:21:33
rebalancing or revaluation of these01:21:35
sectors what is happening now from the point01:21:38
index view01:21:39
nasdaq we see that they are growing only01:21:43
Pharma shares Because if we look01:21:46
by parameter01:21:48
new01:21:50
highs and new lows there is such01:21:53
parameter01:21:56
nyuhais minus01:21:58
and minus new videos We see what now01:22:01
negative value We have now01:22:03
minus 142 This means that there are new lows01:22:07
more than new highs01:22:09
which means that they are growing only01:22:11
shares of these there 10 there 15 companies first01:22:15
the rest of them don't grow at all01:22:18
called very thin thin growth01:22:22
thin growth01:22:24
and such dead growth is also called I01:22:27
I don't know how to translate from01:22:29
English But this is not considered quite01:22:33
reflects reality this is these01:22:37
options Okay let's look at liquidity and01:22:41
this is where I had questions for01:22:44
general index of available liquidity here01:22:48
we see such a breakdown of balances01:22:50
world central banks and the s&p index01:22:54
500 when01:22:55
balance sheets of three world banks And this is Japan01:23:01
European Central Bank01:23:04
and the American Central Bank Fed01:23:08
cumulative three balances01:23:10
when they grew we had an index01:23:15
when these balances were sideways01:23:19
the s&p 500 index was flat again here01:23:23
our balance has begun to grow sharply01:23:25
growth index right here here we have01:23:29
the balance began to fall overall and at the beginning01:23:33
we also fell index 500 but now we01:23:36
we see an anomaly here01:23:37
the balance continues to fall and at the same time01:23:41
the index continues to grow or is it01:23:45
will lead as it was where01:23:51
Well, you can bring it here, that is, in01:23:54
Odessa had it too01:23:55
growth and the balance stood, this ultimately led01:23:59
to decrease That is, we are simply moving01:24:01
we grow in waves, in waves, but there is still balance01:24:04
a smoother line looks like this01:24:06
So maybe we'll see something like this01:24:09
movement and somewhere around here we'll move to01:24:12
stimulation This is my forecast01:24:17
near term01:24:19
Okay what else do we see We see for example01:24:25
You can also compare the unit with the M201:24:28
aggregate is an indicator of the mass of money by01:24:32
essentially yes M2 and we see what is here01:24:37
correlation is almost one hundred percent earlier01:24:39
was as soon as the mass of money grows with us01:24:42
the s&p 500 index is growing as soon as we have01:24:46
the mass began to fall, our index began01:24:50
falls But here it is again01:24:52
correlation happens Yes, here's the last one01:24:54
there was a small rebound from us, but it01:24:57
is also connected precisely with entering the market01:25:00
US government borrowing01:25:01
how long will this process take?01:25:04
happen because at some point01:25:08
will01:25:10
this source has probably been used up01:25:13
liquidity called repo and already01:25:18
the government will start picking these01:25:21
money which they have in large quantities01:25:23
now occupy directly from01:25:24
our market will begin to shrink again01:25:26
balance, more precisely the mass of money01:25:30
But now there seems to be a rebound01:25:33
small may suggest that we have01:25:36
it grows like this, but this is stimulation01:25:37
This is stimulation01:25:40
question: What will it happen on?01:25:42
because anyone is now stimulating B01:25:44
current situation01:25:45
occurrence of stimulation without onset01:25:47
recession will cause simply gigantic01:25:49
a jump in inflation, everyone understands this, that’s why01:25:51
this is unlikely01:25:54
Well, it turns out here like this01:25:56
discrepancy I think this is01:25:59
the discrepancy will end maybe01:26:01
still, again, with such movements01:26:03
then we can assume that it’s like this01:26:05
she was just moving, that is, this01:26:08
all the movement is here and this index is here01:26:10
so it was just waves01:26:13
I don't know, that's my guess, but01:26:16
the amount of money has not become much more than01:26:19
early 202201:26:22
Well, there is such a parameter01:26:26
if you roughly compare the graph is clean01:26:29
Fed liquidity this white line is on01:26:31
graphics01:26:32
and the s&p 500 index chart is purple01:26:35
line then we can assume that is01:26:39
here they are normalized two graphs01:26:41
normalized as expected01:26:44
we don't know why the price is now01:26:46
is growing but in theory the price should be01:26:49
somewhere here01:26:51
given this correlation01:26:54
considering that she correlated here01:26:56
correlated here, here they are somewhere01:26:58
this is where we should be, this is area 301:27:00
800 3 600 And we are at 4 500 then01:27:04
there is this movement but some Well01:27:07
It’s not very clear yet. This is positive.01:27:10
I got it, but it didn’t seem to be particularly relevant01:27:14
Who who is this going on Let's go back01:27:18
again to our smart and stupid01:27:21
money01:27:22
We see that purchases are continuing now in01:27:26
basically it's dammane stupid money01:27:30
They usually buy at very high01:27:33
values they bought here01:27:37
at these levels they bought01:27:40
here at these levels01:27:43
and what do they sell they sell here01:27:49
sold here01:27:52
where else01:27:56
Wait01:27:58
everything was sold here01:28:02
sold here and sold here01:28:04
now they're buying now they're buying it01:28:07
buyers and it turns out that now01:28:11
their purchases are aggressive01:28:14
used by Smart Money, that is, by smart01:28:17
money in order to aggressively01:28:19
sell they give away these shares01:28:22
and here Pay special attention01:28:26
it looks like this is where we were supposed to be01:28:27
decrease according to the schedule that was before01:28:30
this01:28:31
and we went upstairs And at that moment01:28:33
major players are folding very actively01:28:36
maybe this growth was organized01:28:39
to help big players01:28:42
major players get out of these positions01:28:44
last time you came here if01:28:47
look at the blue line one last time01:28:49
They came in01:28:50
here01:28:53
Here at this level And they are also here01:28:56
loaded Here at this level like this01:28:59
he works and they shortened the day01:29:01
here here here here and here here01:29:04
a little bit before we started cutting back01:29:07
Now they are cutting back very actively01:29:13
draw your own conclusions01:29:17
OK01:29:19
about ideas Well, one of them is01:29:23
is now floating around in various public pages and01:29:25
Russian segment international is01:29:27
rotation, that is, transitions from one01:29:30
sectors to another, which is logical01:29:32
the technology index looks very01:29:34
dears, look at the yellow line and we see01:29:37
that now most likely this is a transition01:29:39
what will happen is what we now see here on01:29:41
in this graph we see that the quantity01:29:47
stocks that are included in this sector01:29:51
which is located01:29:53
above the 50 day moving average01:29:58
started in the technological index01:30:02
shrink01:30:03
now 53 percent01:30:08
53 percent half is just located01:30:10
above 50 days the rest dived again We01:30:15
almost reached 100 percent01:30:18
but in the energy sector it’s the other way around01:30:22
we have now reached almost one hundred percent01:30:24
it turns out that we are seeing now01:30:27
transfer from the technology sector to01:30:31
energy sector01:30:34
this graph shows exactly that01:30:36
we have here was absolute01:30:38
pessimism01:30:40
and this money came out here to01:30:44
we already have a technology sector01:30:46
vice versa That is, this is rotation rotation01:30:50
someone will say it's too late, maybe it's late01:30:53
you can't come in and look anymore01:30:56
such an arbitration pair between two01:30:59
these sectors are their links01:31:02
yes And01:31:05
what do we have01:31:08
[music]01:31:11
this is energy this is technological01:31:16
you can look at the spread sector If this01:31:18
the spread will suit you, you can try it for me01:31:21
It seems like it might already be a little late01:31:26
Well, okay, let's probably finish it already01:31:31
everyone is probably tired today with slides01:31:35
By the way, about cargo transportation, here’s me01:31:38
left here is an open picture01:31:40
the price may also jump now01:31:43
because shippers are looking01:31:45
alternative due to delays01:31:46
Panama Canal extends from News01:31:49
We are currently actively carrying cargo01:31:51
redistributes Asian supplies01:31:53
returning from the east coast of the USA01:31:55
to the West Coast because in full01:31:57
feels the consequences01:31:58
duration of throughput reduction01:31:59
capabilities of the Panama Canal01:32:01
colliding with what she called01:32:04
unprecedented drought administration01:32:06
Panama Canal reduced maximum01:32:08
there is no draft of a couple of meters for the locks01:32:12
Panamax thanks to which ships passing01:32:15
transits can only take place via01:32:16
waterway with a depth of 13.4 meters and01:32:21
number of daily passes01:32:24
Well01:32:26
the number of daily passes was01:32:28
reduced by 20 percent to 32 per day01:32:32
measures that are expected to be01:32:33
act in the New Year because01:32:35
weather conditions01:32:37
will probably bring drier dry01:32:39
the weather drought the water subsided and the passage through01:32:44
Canadian channel Became problematic01:32:46
this is what we see We see what from that C01:32:49
the other side is like this01:32:52
the cork is worth it01:32:55
this is on our tracker01:33:00
also potentially White Swan who is it01:33:02
knows we have one already there01:33:05
What was his name, remember Green01:33:09
Green Green I don’t remember some kind of Green01:33:13
the ship that blocked01:33:15
strait01:33:18
in the Persian Gulf If I'm not mistaken here01:33:21
here in Panamanian01:33:24
can also cause an increase in cost01:33:28
transportation reduction in supplies to01:33:32
disruption of the supply chain and ultimately to01:33:36
to some01:33:38
adverse effects on01:33:40
economy01:33:41
drought panama canal drought it's coming01:33:44
in a river01:33:46
the water level just dropped and now it's not all01:33:50
ships pass01:33:56
Dmitry Thank you for your work01:33:59
we need you, we appreciate you, we look closely01:34:01
and listen Thank you very much01:34:04
at the end I'll tell you about01:34:08
stock market what do we have with it01:34:10
is happening I remind you of the big picture She is for01:34:14
I personally haven't changed01:34:20
this is where we are globally01:34:23
my opinion in the development of the third wave I do not01:34:27
I know where to put the third one because I01:34:30
I don’t know where to put the fifth fifth I could01:34:32
be Here if 5 here then01:34:34
third here then we begin01:34:36
destructive movement within here01:34:38
this fourth wave01:34:40
but no one is stopping us from seeing her.01:34:45
here for example01:34:48
that is, 5 can be here too01:34:51
because we don't know the specifics01:34:54
development of this wave it can01:34:57
it could be longer01:34:59
let's say 1 2 3 4 5 this is 5 this is this01:35:04
you can only do 1 at 5 then 2 then 3 4 501:35:09
That is, you can see it like this01:35:11
someone started betting what we have here01:35:16
there will be diagonals here Well okay Then here it is01:35:19
Let's put 3 here too01:35:21
destructive thing I don't know01:35:24
I really don’t know so we will01:35:27
very moment oriented01:35:29
uncomfortable01:35:33
look at this menstruation and period01:35:35
interval01:35:41
We usually always fell from such moments01:35:43
this is the current moment01:35:47
this is where we fell, this is where we fell01:35:51
fell 202001:35:54
right right01:35:57
this is 2002 for us01:36:01
this is what we have now01:36:03
here Well01:36:06
rather it was one single one although there01:36:09
Of course they also fell, but not so much01:36:11
here we also fell01:36:15
divergence is true01:36:17
here they fell very hard01:36:21
There are also divergences here01:36:24
then everyone because this moment is dangerous but01:36:28
it doesn't mean anything yet, he can come in01:36:30
We'll do it a little higher like this again01:36:32
such a transition and then just let's go but01:36:35
always dangerous at these levels of course I am01:36:38
I save01:36:41
neutral so far my position is 3001:36:44
the portfolio load was 25 percent01:36:46
I loaded up a little on the commodity companies01:36:50
I’m not hiding it, I’m showing what01:36:53
the shorts haven't been extended yet, I'm waiting for some01:36:57
a serious blow, it’s clear that it’s probably01:36:59
you are interested in something closer to the topic01:37:03
Let's see01:37:08
daily interval no three-hour01:37:13
By the way, please note that this is the one01:37:17
that idea with the diagonal from which I already01:37:20
I refused I actually refused01:37:23
as if we had to overcome it01:37:27
this is the meaning01:37:28
have we overcome it no we have not overcome it01:37:32
we've overcome it, we haven't reached it yet01:37:35
some probability small small01:37:37
but persists01:37:40
but in general, perhaps we will still see01:37:43
there is some further movement here01:37:46
here or some kind of transition I expect01:37:48
still some kind of flat version01:37:50
such01:37:52
and this is about to be a recession, this is mine01:37:56
main scenario but I don't know when it is01:37:58
will begin maybe become already started01:37:59
look he's already started to fall01:38:02
volatility has already started to rise by the way01:38:05
pay special attention to this01:38:08
O01:38:10
we already have a diagonal to here01:38:14
look01:38:18
now we'll bounce01:38:23
This is what it looks like01:38:25
W01:38:27
XY first wave a01:38:31
doublexfi second wave01:38:35
ABC third wave fourth wave And here are 501:38:42
our diagonal is complete01:38:44
usually well it can be either a wave01:38:49
either with a wave or 1 wave here01:38:52
choose which one is closer to you With wave it01:38:54
maybe here for example from here01:38:58
a b c A wave b wave And here it is whole and01:39:04
from here we are already moving on to this one01:39:06
option the second option is still with this01:39:09
there was an A wave then we will still have a B01:39:12
wave01:39:14
and another one01:39:17
then it goes up01:39:19
Well, the third option is the first wave01:39:22
then there will be a second wave and then01:39:24
we fly away into the Impulse01:39:27
Well maybe I'll try here if01:39:31
some opportunity will appear, try it01:39:33
there might be something to do here now01:39:35
on this rebound that will happen01:39:37
I'll try to borrow something soon01:39:39
Maybe because the taller you are01:39:42
Of course you'll get it easier later01:39:44
modify your position01:39:47
manage it01:39:50
We'll see01:39:52
that in China everything is bad in China01:39:55
developers01:39:58
in the ass of the can, respectively, along with01:40:01
them01:40:02
their prices are falling deflation nothing01:40:06
good in China01:40:11
Tskom Soviet channel in Africa If01:40:15
I'm wrong01:40:19
So01:40:21
I went short on Eurostock, what do you think?01:40:24
Am I a risky guy or not?01:40:27
perhaps Europe is already in01:40:30
recession in all respects and possibly01:40:33
it will continue to fall Why Not recently01:40:36
Yesterday or something Yesterday, I think they introduced a tax01:40:40
there you are in Italy banking 40 percent01:40:44
and accordingly the banks collapsed01:40:46
essential That is, I think that the triggers01:40:48
may appear in Italy Everything is very bad01:40:51
that is, they have consumer01:40:53
sentiments with consumer01:40:54
I think it's a hell of a lot of ability01:40:56
what from Italy01:40:58
an economic crisis will begin in Europe01:41:01
he's already in crisis, of course, but he's just straight01:41:04
about crackling and sparkling01:41:09
Italy most likely01:41:12
not even Germany01:41:15
Although Germany also suffers because01:41:18
they are the traditional largest01:41:20
creditor of the euro economy and if Italy01:41:25
will start acting up01:41:28
will be too01:41:33
don't give up on the expanding diagonal01:41:36
ahead of time 2,500 3,300 in force at home01:41:38
and during the transition the same thing comes out01:41:41
I'm not giving up guys, just now01:41:43
the probability has decreased since we01:41:45
almost close but not yet01:41:46
broke Oddly enough I think I was01:41:48
I'm sure it will break right away but not01:41:50
broke but I am aware that01:41:53
current recession It's just a pullback for now01:41:55
there were such things and maybe tomorrow they will happen again01:41:59
will grow again01:42:12
So guys, okay, I think that today01:42:15
we had enough information01:42:17
like If you liked the current episode01:42:18
I'm guided by your reactions01:42:20
Write comments and support my01:42:22
channel I try I do to you01:42:25
research and you save at least time01:42:29
then to get this information01:42:31
I hope I can at least thank you01:42:33
like and comment If you haven't already01:42:36
subscribed Subscribe a lot of things01:42:38
interesting Thank you for your attention successful01:42:41
trading week to you and see you01:42:43
next episode Bye everyone01:42:45
[music]Description:
00:00 Подготовка, Предупреждение! 00:50 Приветствие 02:00 Ситуация в Экономике, обновление бизнес цикла 19:15 Индекс условий рынка труда, Безработица 22:00 Вероятность мягкой посадки равна 0 ? 28:10 Рекорды по кредитам 32:05 Индекс PMI 35:20 Малый бизнес под давлением 37:20 Прогноз Всемирного банка 41:45 Про рынок зерна 45:50 Ставки по контейнерным перевозкам упали 46:35 Про условия ликвидности 53:35 Про инфляцию, Китай 56:20 Потребление в США замедляется 01:02:10 Частый потребитель - основа ВВП США 01:03:30 Про Номинальные зарплаты и реальные доходы 01:11:20 Показатель инфляции 01:13:30 Налоговые сборы падают 01:17:30 Главные мысли 01:19:35 Сверхконцентрация Big Tech в S&P 500 01:22:35 Раскорреляция балансов мировых ЦБ и SPX 01:24:20 Сравнение М2 и SPX 01:27:15 Умные и Глупые деньги 01:29:20 Идея ротации в секторах 01:34:00 Про S&P 500 01:39:50 Про Китай, Европу Блог Автора: https://boosty.to/solodin Телеграм-Канал Автора: https://t.me/goodtraders Курс по Опционам: https://dsolodin.ru/options Интенсив по Инвестициям "ФинПрокачка": https://dsolodin.ru/finpro Интенсив по Техническому Анализу: https://dsolodin.ru/techpro Теги выпуска:
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