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00:00:01
today is the 8th of September so we are00:00:04
now well into the fourth month of kiev's00:00:08
counter-offensive and can I just say00:00:10
that it is now four months since Ukraine00:00:14
began its efforts to capture robotino00:00:18
and00:00:19
there's again been relatively scant use00:00:23
about the situation on the battlefronts00:00:26
it's not entirely easy sometimes to get00:00:30
a comprehensive idea of what is going on00:00:35
but my overall impression is that the00:00:39
Ukrainian offensive is now indeed ebbing00:00:42
and maybe in its last weeks00:00:45
some months ago I said that I thought00:00:49
that the limiting factor would probably be00:00:52
artillery shells 155 millimeter00:00:55
artillery shells I made a very crude00:00:58
rule of thumb calculation I said that on00:01:02
the assumption00:01:03
that Ukraine would be firing around 1000:01:08
000 shells a day to keep its offensive00:01:11
going and on the assumption that it had00:01:14
received around a million of these00:01:16
shells from the United States and its00:01:19
various allies including perhaps South00:01:22
Korea well I thought that an offensive00:01:27
would probably last around three months00:01:30
and might start to Peter out at the end00:01:33
of August well a number of things then00:01:36
happened00:01:38
um00:01:39
some weeks ago the United States the00:01:43
president himself Joe Biden admitted00:01:45
that the United States was largely out00:01:48
of 155 millimeter shells and that in ha00:01:53
it had to supply00:01:55
Ukraine with cluster Munitions instead00:01:58
cluster Munitions in substitution for00:02:01
those unitary00:02:03
155 millimeter shells and that00:02:09
perhaps has stretched the timeline00:02:12
somewhat00:02:14
it seems the general consensus is that00:02:17
these cluster Munitions are not as00:02:19
effective or as useful00:02:22
on this sort of Battlefield as the00:02:25
unitary 155 millimeter shells are but00:02:30
the supplement of the cluster Munitions00:02:34
Plus00:02:36
drips and drabs of 155 millimeter shell00:02:40
deliveries from the United States and00:02:43
Europe00:02:44
do seem to have stretched00:02:47
somewhat the amount of time that Ukraine00:02:51
can continue the offensive and I was00:02:54
very interested to watch some days ago00:02:58
an absolutely fascinating program on the00:03:01
new Atlas00:03:02
um00:03:03
Ryan bulletik's approach show on YouTube00:03:07
absolutely indispensable program if you00:03:10
want to follow00:03:12
the course of the fighting and I noticed00:03:16
that over the course of it00:03:18
um his guest Scott have calibrated who00:03:21
is somebody who is Brian balletic says00:03:24
devotes a huge amount of his time on the00:03:26
trenches of this war not of the war00:03:29
itself of course but on the trenches of00:03:31
the information war in the various00:03:34
telegram channels Russian and Ukrainian00:03:38
and going through the various Twitter00:03:40
feeds and threads anyway Scott have00:03:43
calibrated I noticed put the00:03:47
firing rate of Ukrainian artillery at00:03:52
one to two thousand shells a day00:03:55
sharply below the ten thousand that I'd00:03:59
guesstimated would be needed in order to00:04:03
sustain the offensive effectively00:04:06
and00:04:07
by the way he said that Russian00:04:11
artillery firings00:04:14
by the time that the program was made on00:04:17
the 1st of September00:04:19
had also Fallen to six to ten thousand00:04:23
rounds a day which of course is still00:04:26
multiples greater than what Ukraine is00:04:29
apparently firing but anyway one00:04:32
thousand to two thousand rounds a day00:04:35
uh allegedly00:04:37
is what Ukraine is firing00:04:40
um some part of that will be cluster00:04:43
Munitions but it does seem to be an00:04:47
inadequate number00:04:49
of shells fired00:04:53
in order to sustain an offensive over an00:04:57
800 kilometer front or indeed to00:05:00
maintain defense00:05:03
right across this entire front00:05:06
so that might be another factor in00:05:10
perhaps causing the offensive to start00:05:12
to slow down00:05:14
anyway the fact is the offensive still00:05:16
continues at least in some forms General00:05:18
tarnovsky a few days ago in the00:05:22
interview he gave to the guardian00:05:24
Ukrainian General tarnowsky he actually00:05:27
did say that Ukraine has had to00:05:29
concentrate its efforts in a small00:05:32
number of sectors now it can't any00:05:35
longer conduct a general defensive00:05:38
across the entire front line as it was00:05:42
apparently trying to do earlier00:05:44
and it is focusing its efforts in a few00:05:48
sectors an interesting admission which00:05:52
hasn't been widely picked up by the way00:05:54
but that would perhaps00:05:57
also indicate00:06:00
a running down of resources with which00:06:02
to conduct the offensive00:06:05
and a consequent00:06:08
Focus therefore on a few small areas of00:06:13
the battlefronts00:06:15
now there have been other guesstimates00:06:17
about the length of time that Ukraine00:06:19
can sustain this offensive00:06:22
um someone on slow young guard I think00:06:24
it might have been Claire bazov he00:06:27
suggested that it would start to run00:06:30
down and perhaps end00:06:32
in the second half of September00:06:35
well today is the 8th of September so00:06:38
that is not00:06:40
so far away00:06:42
and yesterday I saw reports in appearing00:06:47
in various places which by the way I00:06:49
couldn't trace the they're alleged to00:06:52
come from an article in The Economist00:06:55
though I've checked in The Economist and00:06:58
if so I haven't been able to find the00:07:00
reference but anyway there's supposed to00:07:03
be a00:07:05
Port that the United States itself00:07:09
now believes that Ukraine can only00:07:12
continue the offensive for a further six00:07:15
to seven weeks at most so that would00:07:18
take us to the middle of October which00:07:21
is coincidentally of course the time00:07:24
when the rains begin and the monster and00:07:29
the mud season starts00:07:31
now I don't know whether and to what00:07:36
extent this is correct as I said this is00:07:38
all guesswork by me00:07:40
bye00:07:42
slav younggrad00:07:44
perhaps by the officials in the United00:07:46
States but for what it is worth00:07:50
for the moment it does seem as if00:07:53
Ukraine's efforts to continue its00:07:57
offensive00:07:58
are proving well a lot less intense than00:08:03
had been the case previously00:08:06
now before I go into the weeds and00:08:10
discuss a little of what is going on00:08:13
though I don't intend this time to spend00:08:16
a huge amount of time over the over it I00:08:20
will just make uh one further just point00:08:23
point of information which is that00:08:26
Evgeni balitsky the acting head of the00:08:31
zafarosia regional government I should00:08:34
stress the Russian appointed00:08:37
zaporosier Regional government anyway he00:08:40
now says that the Russians have00:08:43
destroyed00:08:45
um two Challenger tanks and this is the00:08:50
task dispatch00:08:53
he says that Russian forces have00:08:55
destroyed two British made Challenger00:08:57
tanks in the zaporosier region with00:09:00
cornet anti-tank missile systems00:09:04
two rolled out the Cornet was used00:09:06
against them in principle the very first00:09:09
hit cost one to catch fire in terms of00:09:13
armor they have no special feed features00:09:17
the cornets coat with them easily our00:09:21
guys hit two tanks anyway that's what00:09:26
Tas reports him as having said and he00:09:29
says that there's another four00:09:31
Challenger tanks now based in a village00:09:35
called Step no gorsk and that there's00:09:38
two more in the town of orejov itself so00:09:42
two down another six in the area00:09:48
um this would make eight out of the 1400:09:51
which00:09:53
written originally delivered00:09:56
now of course there's no way of00:09:59
corroborating what balitsky says there's00:10:03
no pictures so far00:10:05
of this other knocked down Challenger 200:10:08
tank that he's talking about but I would00:10:12
say that there's been quite widespread00:10:15
reports that the Challenger to the first00:10:19
Challenger two the one which was00:10:22
indisputably knocked out was indeed00:10:25
knocked out by a cornet anti-tank00:10:28
missile now the Cornet is Russia's most00:10:31
powerful00:10:32
anti-tank missile as you would say00:10:35
infantry based anti-tank missile Russian00:10:39
tanks themselves can also fire anti-tank00:10:43
missiles and do so through their00:10:47
main tank guns but that's a entirely00:10:51
different technology the corner is the00:10:55
Russian equivalent if you like or at00:10:58
least tactical equivalent of such00:11:00
systems as the American Javelin and the00:11:03
American tow missile system they are00:11:07
carried into battle by Russian troops00:11:10
Russian infantry though they can also be00:11:14
used in the way that the tow missile is00:11:17
also used by the United States00:11:20
on Infantry fighting Vehicles anyway00:11:23
that by the way begs some rather00:11:27
interesting questions because of course00:11:29
the first Challenger 2 tank the one that00:11:34
has indisputably been destroyed the one00:11:38
that the British themselves acknowledge00:11:41
have been destroyed ground chaps the00:11:44
British defense secretary says that one00:11:48
British Challenger to tank has been00:11:52
destroyed anyway that particular00:11:55
Challenger too was located in the area00:11:58
of rabultino the village which Ukraine00:12:03
claimed to have captured well I think it00:12:07
was around 10 days ago now00:12:11
now00:12:13
if this Challenger 2 was indeed00:12:16
destroyed by a cornet missile then that00:12:19
means that Russian anti-tank00:12:24
infantry teams are still operating00:12:28
around00:12:30
or at any rate were operating around00:12:33
robotino a few days ago when the00:12:36
Challenger 2 was destroyed and after the00:12:40
time when the ukrainians claimed that00:12:46
robotino had been captured by Ukraine00:12:50
and that of course00:12:52
would provide further evidence that00:12:55
robotino itself continues to be00:12:58
contested00:13:00
now why am I00:13:02
say all of this00:13:03
I mean apart from the interesting fact00:13:06
that it does seem as if Russian00:13:09
anti-tank missiles anti-tank guided00:13:11
missiles like the Coronet can indeed00:13:14
destroy the Challenger well I say00:13:16
because I read this rather interesting00:13:19
piece00:13:20
in the Daily Telegraph it's00:13:25
um00:13:26
features long00:13:29
reprint of a discussion that a U.S00:13:34
defense intelligence agency analyst00:13:37
gave to the economist00:13:40
um a few days ago in which this00:13:43
particular analyst and Mr Moore actually00:13:46
says that there's a realistic00:13:48
possibility that Ukraine might be able00:13:52
to break through all of Ukraine's00:13:55
Russia's defense lines on the zaporosia00:13:58
front and the Daily Telegraph explains00:14:02
to us that a realistic possibility is a00:14:05
40 to 50 percent likelihood00:14:08
which doesn't seem to me particularly00:14:10
strong and besides of course we're told00:14:13
that Mr Maul thinks that that might00:14:16
happen there's a forty to fifty percent00:14:19
likelihood of that happening by the end00:14:22
of the year00:14:24
which causes weeks away00:14:27
and which of course assumes a Ukrainian00:14:30
offensive still continuing for weeks00:14:34
through the rain the Autumn muds all of00:14:37
those sort of things and despite the00:14:39
losses and the equipment shortages and00:14:41
all of those things but anyway very00:14:45
inside this article about Mr Moore and00:14:49
his00:14:50
analyzes which one should take seriously00:14:54
there is this really00:14:56
rather00:14:58
interesting paragraph00:15:01
Russian sources said moscow's00:15:05
occupational forces were launching00:15:08
counter-attacks at robotino a nearby00:15:11
Village recently00:15:13
liberated by Kiev in an attempt to00:15:18
create an Allure00:15:21
the settlement is still being contested00:15:24
so I am assuming that what the Daily00:15:28
Telegraph is saying is that all of these00:15:30
reports that we're getting from multiple00:15:32
sources Russian sources about continued00:15:35
fighting in and around00:15:39
reports that I've covered extensively00:15:44
in previous programs well00:15:47
I presume what the Daily Telegraph is00:15:50
trying to say is that these reports are00:15:53
imaginary00:15:55
they've made up00:15:57
all the reports of this fighting up00:16:01
as I said they are reports that come00:16:04
from Russian sources with00:16:09
connections among soldiers on the00:16:11
battlefronts they prove reliable in the00:16:14
past they're often critical of the00:16:16
Kremlin but it seems that these are00:16:20
fictional reports00:16:22
which are intended to create an Allure00:16:27
presumably an impression00:16:30
that robertino is still being fought00:16:32
over and that arabina is not being00:16:35
fought over00:16:36
but is in fact firmly controlled by00:16:40
Ukraine that is what this paragraph says00:16:44
well I beg to disagree I think this is00:16:48
clearly wrong00:16:50
I think it's not just the case that the00:16:53
reports about the fighting in and around00:16:56
are too detailed and circumstantial and00:17:01
too consistent amongst too many sources00:17:05
to be simply invented in the way that00:17:08
the Daily Telegraph says but as I said00:17:10
many times not only are the people who00:17:13
provide these sources often well largely00:17:17
reliable00:17:18
but they are often at odds with the00:17:21
Kremlin and with the Russian defense00:17:23
Ministry and I find it very difficult to00:17:26
believe that they would invent stories00:17:28
like this and go on doing so for days00:17:31
and weeks on end in order to pretend00:17:35
that robertino is contested when if in00:17:41
fact it is not00:17:44
that00:17:46
the fact that a challenger 2 tank00:17:50
has also apparently been knocked out00:17:54
by a Russian anti-tank team operating a00:17:59
cornet missile near abortina to my mind00:18:03
that provides further strong evidence00:18:08
proof some would say that despite this00:18:11
claim in the telegraph00:18:14
is indeed contested00:18:17
to my mind this paragraph by the way00:18:19
what it tells us is that there are some00:18:22
people00:18:23
in Britain in the media who are now00:18:27
starting to have doubts about the claims00:18:31
of Ukrainian advances over the last few00:18:35
weeks about raborty not being fully00:18:38
captured by Ukraine about Ukrainian00:18:41
breakthroughs through the pseudovicin00:18:43
line and this paragraph is an attempt to00:18:49
still those doubts by telling us well00:18:52
don't believe all these reports you're00:18:54
getting about fighting in this Village00:18:57
they're all made up by the Russians I00:19:00
I just mention all of this because00:19:03
that's it seems to me00:19:07
an interesting piece of news management00:19:10
here or at least coping as some would00:19:12
say00:19:14
and besides the story about the00:19:17
Challenger 2 which I accept by the way00:19:20
is still open to some00:19:22
question anyway00:19:25
um the story of the Challenger too the00:19:27
destroyed Challenger 2 appears00:19:31
at least to some extent to refute it00:19:33
anyway what else has been going on well00:19:37
yesterday there was in fact more00:19:39
fighting around00:19:44
according to Russian sources according00:19:47
to the Russian Ministry of Defense00:19:49
um00:19:50
there was even a report00:19:52
in radovka this is the Russian newspaper00:19:56
based in Smolensk that Russian00:19:59
counter-attacks in robotino have driven00:20:03
Ukrainian troops entirely out of this00:20:06
Village and that00:20:08
is entirely in the gray Zone that no no00:20:12
side00:20:13
controls any part of it00:20:16
I think that is probably overstating the00:20:20
facts there is an accumulation of00:20:24
reports that there are Ukrainian troops00:20:26
in the Northern parts of the village at00:20:30
least00:20:31
and that the southern part of the00:20:33
village is in the gray Zone but anyway00:20:37
the long and the short of it is that00:20:40
was fighting in yesterday it seems as if00:20:46
rabotino remains contested it seems that00:20:50
there's been no Ukrainian breakthrough00:20:53
in robotino00:20:55
or indeed in any other place00:20:58
and the same seems to be true of verbovo00:21:01
yeah as well no Breakthrough by Ukraine00:21:05
there either all of these places remain00:21:08
contested Ukraine still continues to00:21:12
fight for these villages in the00:21:16
control Zone north of the Surah weekend00:21:20
line claims that the surovicin line has00:21:23
been breached00:21:24
claims that Ukraine is moving on to the00:21:27
second line00:21:29
are clearly for the moment wrong00:21:31
certainly that's how it looks to me and00:21:34
all of the reports that I'm seeing from00:21:37
the battlefronts which I judge00:21:40
reliable all of them largely confirmed00:21:44
that00:21:45
so nothing much going on there00:21:50
some reports that the Russians have made00:21:53
some advances in this town of marinka00:21:56
near Donetsk that the fight for marinka00:22:00
is finally coming to an end as I've said00:22:03
this has been a town which the Russians00:22:06
claimed that they'd captured about a00:22:08
year ago and haven't in fact captured00:22:10
and this has been a prolonged and I00:22:14
think for the Russians somewhat00:22:16
embarrassing episode but anyway there's00:22:19
some reports that the Russians are now00:22:22
finally in the process of clearing00:22:26
marinka and also reports that Ukraine00:22:31
has essentially stopped attacks on the00:22:35
vremific that they might be in fact be00:22:38
in the process of redeploying troops00:22:40
from the vremific to the zaporosia front00:22:44
lines perhaps to try and renew attacks00:22:48
towards arabotino and verbovoye00:22:52
who's to say00:22:54
and dribbles of reports about continued00:22:58
Russian advances on the Oscar River Line00:23:02
and further north towards the town of00:23:06
kupiansk and can I say on the in terms00:23:10
of that00:23:11
offensive or many offensives that the00:23:14
Russians are conducting00:23:16
on the Northern front lines00:23:19
um00:23:20
Vladimir Putin00:23:22
promoted some of his generals yesterday00:23:25
and I noticed that one of the generals00:23:28
who has been promoted promoted is00:23:30
general mudvichev who is commander of00:23:34
the forces south of kupiansk who have00:23:37
been pushing towards the Oscar River00:23:40
he's been promoted to Colonel general00:23:43
which is a rank just below the rank of00:23:48
full General00:23:49
and clearly Putin at least for the00:23:53
moment and one must assume the defense00:23:55
ministry as well are pleased with him00:23:58
but anyway that's00:24:01
all I can say about the situation on the00:24:05
battle lines it does seem to me the time00:24:08
one way or another is now running short00:24:11
and that certainly it's looking00:24:15
increasingly unlikely that there's going00:24:18
to be any major Ukrainian breakthrough00:24:20
this month or next month00:24:25
um there's an accumulation of reports00:24:27
that Ukraine is running has run through00:24:32
a lot of its Manpower that it's00:24:35
struggling to make up the numbers if00:24:38
it's in its soldiers that it's no longer00:24:41
able to recruit numbers of men in the00:24:45
quantities that it needs to keep its00:24:49
forces up to strength that is00:24:53
considering a further Mass mobilization00:24:56
in the autumn and winter00:24:59
and of course00:25:02
that Ukraine's offensive generally is00:25:05
running down and as I said there's a00:25:07
breakthrough for the moment looks00:25:09
unlikely00:25:11
there are by the way some claims I saw00:25:13
yet another claim that there are rumors00:25:16
that in Ukraine they're now talking00:25:20
about00:25:21
reaching talk Mac00:25:25
important town on the way to Miller00:25:28
topple00:25:29
by the Thor00:25:32
now the saw is of course in Spring it's00:25:36
in April to be precise00:25:40
if Ukraine really expects00:25:44
if there are really reports that00:25:47
Ukrainian commanders and officials are00:25:50
talking about reaching top Mac00:25:53
by April00:25:55
then I think we can00:25:58
truthfully say that this offensive is00:26:01
now indeed winding down00:26:04
and going back to that00:26:07
um00:26:08
program00:26:11
on the new Atlas with00:26:14
um00:26:17
which I which I was talking about with00:26:19
Scott have calibrated and others00:26:22
Scott was calibrated with saying that00:26:25
when the you when the offensive finally00:26:28
ends00:26:29
and when it's become clear00:26:32
that none of its objectives00:26:35
have been achieved00:26:37
which will be00:26:38
in a few weeks time00:26:40
well at that point00:26:43
it will be difficult to continue to00:26:48
preserve the optimism about the war00:26:52
recriminations in the west will begin00:26:55
arguments about the way forward00:26:58
will break out in earnest00:27:01
and we will see more talk about what the00:27:05
West about what the United States in00:27:08
particular should do00:27:11
and I think about that00:27:14
he might be right00:27:15
anyway before I finish with this brief00:27:19
summary or rather not so brief summary00:27:20
with this summary of what's happening00:27:22
there were more Russian drone attacks00:27:26
on Ukraine yesterday very heavy drone00:27:30
attacks again in the Black Sea area00:27:32
around the Ukraine's Black Sea ports00:27:36
there were some claims that Ismail00:27:39
nikolaif and Odessa the three key00:27:44
centers were subjected to the most00:27:47
intense drone attack that Russia has00:27:49
launched00:27:51
um since the start of the special00:27:53
military operation00:27:55
I'm not really able to provide much in00:27:58
the way of information about it there's00:28:02
been claims of heavy damage there's been00:28:05
one00:28:07
film00:28:09
of a geranium II drone being shot down00:28:12
by00:28:14
Ukrainian anti-aircraft guns it was00:28:18
quite a dramatic picture but it does00:28:22
seem that00:28:23
the Drone attack did cause a significant00:28:26
amount of damage but as I said I'm not00:28:29
going to try and assess it it's not00:28:32
something I'm really able to do00:28:34
so00:28:36
there we are that's it seems to me the00:28:39
situation in the war overall00:28:41
I've noticed that Ukraine's drone00:28:43
offensive its own drone offensive00:28:46
against Russia seems to be running down00:28:50
as well and by the way and for the00:28:53
record given that these are relatively00:28:55
small drones that Ukraine is using00:28:58
smaller as far as I can judge than the00:29:00
geranium II drones I wonder whether00:29:04
as the weather conditions turn more00:29:08
difficult whether these Ukrainian drones00:29:12
which have been launched against Targets00:29:15
in Moscow and across Western Russia00:29:19
whether that drone offensive can be00:29:21
maintained in the autumn and winter00:29:24
conditions at the same level of00:29:27
intensity as we've seen over the course00:29:30
of the summer well I don't know I'm not00:29:33
an expert in these matters so I'm not00:29:36
really able to say but anyway00:29:39
more Russian drone attacks fewer00:29:42
Ukrainian drone attacks and essentially00:29:45
status a state of00:29:49
barely any movements on the front lines00:29:53
Ukraine continuing to launch attacks00:29:56
Ukraine continuing to suffer casualties00:29:59
Ukraine perhaps losing more of its00:30:02
precious supply of Tanks Ukraine running00:30:06
out of ammunition and perhaps having to00:30:09
husband ammunition and an offensive a00:30:13
general sense at least that in a sense00:30:16
that I'm getting that the offensive00:30:18
itself is now running down if I am right00:30:23
about that00:30:24
and if in a few weeks time00:30:28
the Ukrainian offensive which will have00:30:31
been00:30:32
fought for four months has visibly come00:30:36
to a stop and we are in a situation00:30:40
where there's arguments and discussions00:30:43
in the west about what to do next and00:30:45
about whether to negotiate with the00:30:47
Russians or not anyway if that is all00:30:50
right then I'm going to suggest that at00:30:53
that point00:30:54
the focus will switch the attention will00:30:58
move00:30:59
on the battlefronts not to what Ukraine00:31:03
is doing which is what we've been00:31:05
talking about for the last00:31:07
four months or so three months ago or so00:31:09
but what the Russians are going to do00:31:12
whether they are indeed going to launch00:31:14
an Autumn winter offensive as several00:31:19
Russian officials balitsky alaudinef00:31:23
and others have sort of hinted at00:31:27
and I think that before I discuss that00:31:31
and I00:31:32
little I can really add because of00:31:34
course I'm not familiar with Russian00:31:37
thinking or Russian planning there is00:31:39
one particular00:31:41
myth or at least00:31:44
comment that people make about the00:31:47
Russian Autumn winter offensive00:31:51
which I think I would like to respond to00:31:55
in this program now00:31:58
which is that several people make the00:32:00
point that last year after Ukraine's00:32:04
offensives in harkov and Hearthstone00:32:07
region there were again lots of rumors00:32:10
that the Russians were going to launch00:32:12
an offensive in the winter00:32:15
and allegedly or supposedly no such00:32:19
Russian offensive was in fact launched00:32:22
during the winter the front lines00:32:25
remained stable and no such offensive no00:32:29
such Russian winter offensive took place00:32:33
well I'm going to push back on that it00:32:35
seems to me that there was actually a00:32:38
Russian winter offensive and it was00:32:40
quite a substantial one and of course it00:32:43
was a successful one and the Russian00:32:47
winter offensive was the one which was00:32:49
launched in November with the Wagner00:32:54
organization acting as the spearhead and00:32:58
which at the end of May resulted in the00:33:02
capture of the town of Bachman a town of00:33:06
around 70 000 people before the war and00:33:10
of all the00:33:11
um Associated Villages and suburbs all00:33:15
around it00:33:16
and this was in military terms a very00:33:22
large00:33:23
and significant Affair indeed00:33:27
I remember over the course of the autumn00:33:30
and winter and then the early spring00:33:34
doing many programs about the fighting00:33:37
in Bachman about the severity of00:33:40
Ukrainian losses defending Bachman I00:33:43
remember there were all sorts of00:33:45
programs and articles that appeared in00:33:47
all kinds of places which identified the00:33:50
huge numbers of Ukrainian troops and00:33:54
formations brigades and such things that00:33:57
were concentrated in and around Bachman00:34:00
trying to defend this town which the00:34:04
Russians were attacking and of course00:34:06
the thing is this offensive was00:34:09
successful Not only was Batman captured00:34:12
by the Russians but more importantly00:34:15
Ukraine suffered exceptionally High00:34:18
losses trying to defend it losses that00:34:22
were confirmed in many articles that00:34:25
appeared even in the Ukrainian media and00:34:28
in the western media as well Ukraine00:34:31
lost tens of thousands of men defending00:34:35
Bachman in the face of this Russian00:34:38
offensive which ended up capturing it00:34:41
the Russians of course did not launch a00:34:46
general offensive across the entire00:34:49
front lines last winter00:34:53
a sum had thought they might do as I for00:34:58
a Time thought that they might do but00:35:01
it's a mistake it's a serious mistake to00:35:04
say that there was no Russian offensive00:35:06
last winter at all there was it was00:35:10
perhaps the most intense fighting it00:35:13
resulted in perhaps the most intense00:35:16
fighting that there has been this00:35:20
Century on any Battlefront and of course00:35:23
it was the Russians who won it and the00:35:27
Ukrainian Army was severely weakened00:35:30
Ukraine suffered very heavy losses over00:35:34
the course of the00:35:36
Battle of Bachmann the offensive that00:35:39
resulted in the capture of Bachman and00:35:43
of course in the meantime the Russians00:35:45
were not idle they continued to build up00:35:48
their forces and they created the Surah00:35:51
vegan line so I think that this00:35:54
suggestion that there was no Russian00:35:56
offensive last winter00:35:58
or that if there was it was unsuccessful00:36:02
which is the00:36:04
story promoted at the time by the00:36:07
British Ministry of defense well to me00:36:11
it seems demonstrably almost comically00:36:15
wrong in light of what we actually know00:36:19
happened and I've only odd that people00:36:23
still come up and say from time to time00:36:26
that there was no Russian offensive last00:36:30
winter when that obviously was anyway00:36:33
just saying I don't want to spend more00:36:36
time on that that was last winter what00:36:39
the Russians intend to do this winter I00:36:43
am not sure00:36:44
it does seem to me that they have far00:36:47
more powerful forces assembled and00:36:51
assembling that they than they did last00:36:54
winter it also seems to me that the00:36:57
ukrainians are significantly weaker now00:37:00
than they were last winter that00:37:03
presumably is why Ukraine is now00:37:06
considering another big mobilization00:37:10
so00:37:12
presumably00:37:14
taking advantage of that fact the00:37:18
Russians will do something this winter00:37:20
which will be on a bigger scale than00:37:23
what they did last year last winter in00:37:27
the offensive which ended with the fall00:37:30
of Bachman00:37:32
where what I think00:37:34
is likely to be the case00:37:38
is that rather like the offensive last00:37:42
winter the primary purpose of this next00:37:45
Russian offensive will also be not so00:37:49
much to capture territory00:37:52
as to grind the ukrainians to continue00:37:56
to grind the ukrainians down to continue00:37:59
to wear the ukrainians down and to00:38:03
continue to wage this Relentless War of00:38:07
Attrition on Ukraine that you Russia has00:38:11
been effectively waging since the summer00:38:14
of last year00:38:16
and to devastating effect00:38:19
and00:38:22
eventually00:38:24
presumably the Russians will have some00:38:28
bigger objectives some larger plan which00:38:32
they can then put into effect00:38:35
once the attrition has taken its course00:38:39
but what that's going to be00:38:42
I'm not going to speculate about or00:38:45
discuss further on this program00:38:49
in time00:38:50
to repeat a point made by the British00:38:53
historian Jeff Roberts there is now00:38:57
probably after the Ukrainian offensive00:39:01
ends00:39:04
probably going to be00:39:07
some space and time00:39:10
for negotiations to take place and I00:39:14
discussed yesterday in my program on00:39:18
this channel and on in a parallel00:39:19
program that we did00:39:21
on the Duran Alex christoforu and I the00:39:25
possibility00:39:26
that the United States the very serious00:39:30
very real possibility that the United00:39:32
States might now move forward with its00:39:36
attempt00:39:37
to freeze the conflict to get the00:39:40
Russians to agree to end the conflict on00:39:44
the basis of a ceasefire00:39:48
with no real and political end point to00:39:52
the war but a ceasefire on Korean lines00:39:56
an Armistice if you like00:40:00
well00:40:01
I have to say that that does seem to me00:40:05
where the United States is most likely00:40:08
going to go over the next few weeks and00:40:12
months and I discussed in many programs00:40:16
that I've made recently why I don't00:40:18
think that will fly with the Russians00:40:21
but of course already we're starting to00:40:24
see significant pushback from various00:40:28
people in the West00:40:30
who don't want to see a negotiation like00:40:34
that take place either00:40:36
and today for example there is an00:40:41
article in the Financial Times by Andres00:40:45
umland who is a Swedish00:40:49
um commentator and scholar and academic and00:40:54
writer on International Affairs anyway00:40:58
he says that any negotiations and of00:41:02
course he's talking about negotiations00:41:04
between Ukraine and Russia though I want00:41:07
to make it clear that the negotiations00:41:09
would actually be between Russia and the00:41:13
United States it's most unlikely00:41:17
that Ukraine would be granted any real00:41:20
role in those negotiations but he says00:41:22
that any such negotiations would be a00:41:26
moral defeat but a moral defeat for the00:41:29
West00:41:30
only comes up again with all of the00:41:34
arguments the arguments of principle and00:41:38
values that we often see coming from00:41:41
Western commentators the negotiations00:41:44
with the Russians which allow the00:41:46
Russians to remain in control of00:41:49
territory which the West recognizes as00:41:52
Ukrainian that negotiations on that00:41:56
basis would reward aggression00:41:59
that doing that would undermine the00:42:04
entire rules-based International order00:42:08
it would make small countries00:42:11
and he doesn't specify which small00:42:14
countries but to my mind it's fairly00:42:16
clear that he means small countries in00:42:19
Europe it would make them apprehensive00:42:21
about00:42:23
their long-term position00:42:26
and he says that it would be a major00:42:30
mistake for the West to countenance00:42:34
negotiations in that form and that the00:42:37
only00:42:39
viable and proper policy is to continue00:42:43
to support Ukraine until it achieves00:42:46
Victory a victory which by the way he00:42:50
does not fully just Define and which of00:42:53
course he doesn't explain how he expects00:42:57
this Victory this victory that he's00:43:00
talking about to be achieved as is so00:43:04
often the case with articles of this00:43:07
sort articles that talk00:43:10
purely about values and principles and00:43:13
such things rules and all the rest00:43:18
he wills and he Wills the end00:43:21
which is victory over Russia00:43:24
but he provides no explanation as to00:43:27
what the means for achieving that00:43:30
Victory are going to be he doesn't00:43:33
explain how the West is supposed to find00:43:36
more tanks guns00:43:38
ships planes00:43:41
shells00:43:43
what the West would have to do00:43:46
to achieve that victory that he's00:43:49
talking about and what the risks00:43:53
involved in trying to achieve that00:43:56
Victory against a nuclear superpower00:44:00
would be none of that of course00:44:03
comes00:44:05
up in Andres umland's discussion00:44:09
but I would say that actually if you00:44:12
drill00:44:14
deeply into that article if you take it00:44:18
apart and think carefully about what he00:44:22
is saying00:44:24
and it Bears remembering that of course00:44:29
he is Swedish and he writes as someone00:44:32
from Sweden00:44:34
you can see that what he's really00:44:36
concerned about00:44:38
is not about the undermining00:44:41
of the International Security System the00:44:46
global security system00:44:49
he's really worried about the situation00:44:51
in Europe what he's basically telling00:44:55
American00:44:57
advocates00:44:58
of discussions with the Russians00:45:01
negotiations with the Russians00:45:03
negotiations which implicitly seed00:45:07
territory in Ukraine to the Russians00:45:11
what he's telling them is this if you go00:45:14
down this route00:45:15
then00:45:17
we in Europe small countries like us are00:45:22
going to start to worry00:45:24
that00:45:25
we don't have00:45:28
the full guarantee of your protection if00:45:33
we run into problems with the Russians00:45:37
and in light of that00:45:40
we might be obliged00:45:43
to rethink00:45:45
our Reliance with you00:45:47
and start to talk to the to the other00:45:51
side to the Russians in order to secure00:45:55
our own future our own security00:45:59
and that it seems to me00:46:02
the underlying point that Homeland is00:46:05
making and of course it is a valid one00:46:08
it is absolutely correct that anything00:46:13
other than a clear-cut victory00:46:16
however that is defined by the United00:46:19
States and the West in Ukraine is in00:46:24
some form or rather going to shake00:46:26
the authority of the United States00:46:31
the authority of the NATO system00:46:34
in Europe00:46:36
but00:46:37
to my mind00:46:39
this is now a stale argument00:46:41
because00:46:44
we're long past the point00:46:47
where that is reversible00:46:51
if00:46:53
people like umland00:46:58
were really concerned00:47:00
about the future stability of the00:47:03
existing00:47:04
euro-atlantic system in Europe about the00:47:08
U.S guarantee to Europe00:47:11
then they should never have put it to00:47:14
the test00:47:15
that they have00:47:17
by permitting a war00:47:20
in Ukraine to happen00:47:23
he skirts over the entire story of the00:47:26
origins of the war he doesn't discuss00:47:29
the Minsk agreement he doesn't discuss00:47:32
the painstaking negotiations that took00:47:35
place over eight years and which led00:47:38
nowhere he doesn't talk about the00:47:41
discussions that took place last year in00:47:44
Istanbul00:47:46
but of course00:47:48
the right thing to do is to go back00:47:51
think about those negotiations and ask00:47:54
whether perhaps00:47:56
the euro-atlantic system the entire00:47:59
security situation in Europe might00:48:03
ultimately have been better served00:48:06
if the United States and the European00:48:10
States had supported00:48:13
the Minsk agreement00:48:15
and insisted with Ukraine upon its full00:48:19
implementation00:48:22
anyway that's the position that those00:48:25
people are in00:48:27
they missed their opportunity to00:48:30
stabilize the situation peacefully00:48:33
through the Minsk agreement and to00:48:36
prevent00:48:37
the direct challenge to the00:48:40
euro-atlantic system that is now00:48:42
developing00:48:44
but of course that doesn't prevent them00:48:46
from denying that they had any role00:48:51
in starting the war00:48:53
but nonetheless fearing the consequences00:48:56
if the war takes its existing course00:49:01
and anyway that is Homeland but of00:49:03
course there are other people as well00:49:05
who are now talking00:49:07
passionately against negotiations any00:49:11
sort of negotiations uh today in the00:49:14
guardian00:49:15
there is a long article by Alexei00:49:18
reznikov Ukraine's now sacked defense00:49:22
minister who has been appointed or who's00:49:26
going to be appointed00:49:27
ambassador to London despite all the00:49:31
allegations of corruption that swell00:49:34
around the defense Ministry the00:49:37
Ukrainian defense Ministry whilst he was00:49:40
in charge but anyway he also has written00:49:44
an article in which he basically rejects00:49:48
any idea of negotiations he says that00:49:51
freezing the conflict is a bad idea he00:49:53
says the talking to the Russians is to00:49:55
reward aggression he says that the00:49:57
Russians are not interested in00:49:59
negotiations they're interested in the00:50:02
total Annihilation the complete00:50:05
destruction of Ukraine that the only way00:50:09
to confront this is by00:50:14
fighting the Russians continuing the war00:50:17
to The Bitter End that the only00:50:22
acceptable outcome is victory over the00:50:25
Russians a victory which again reznikov00:50:29
doesn't really00:50:30
Define he doesn't explain what victory00:50:33
precise exactly means00:50:35
though obviously does mean the return of00:50:38
all Ukrainian territory including Crimea00:50:42
to Ukraine at least territory that00:50:44
Ukraine claims for itself but anyway he00:50:48
wants that00:50:49
he does appear to want an awful lot more00:50:53
but again what he doesn't really do is00:50:59
explain the means with which this is to00:51:03
be accomplished00:51:05
of course we've had the offensive the00:51:07
Ukrainian offensive he doesn't say very00:51:09
much about that either by the way00:51:12
he doesn't explain why this offensive00:51:16
which has been going on now for three00:51:19
months and which is now in well into its00:51:22
fourth month and which hasn't succeeded00:51:25
he doesn't explain00:51:26
why any future offensive will succeed he00:51:32
does talk again about Wonder Weapons00:51:35
more weapons from the west and from the00:51:38
United States he doesn't make clear why00:51:42
or how he expects these additional00:51:46
supplies of more weapons to change the00:51:50
situation when all the previous supplies00:51:52
of other weapons have clearly failed to00:51:56
do so00:51:57
but I'm going to make a prediction00:52:01
that it might be the case that some00:52:05
people in the administration00:52:07
do want a negotiation as I've said00:52:10
already for them the priority is to00:52:13
freeze the war because for them the00:52:16
priority00:52:17
is not what happens in Ukraine00:52:21
but00:52:23
the00:52:25
election the coming election in the00:52:28
United States that's what they're00:52:32
concerned about00:52:34
and00:52:36
it may be that there are people like00:52:39
that that I'm confident that there are00:52:42
the very fact that articles like those00:52:44
of Mr umland and Mr reznikov are00:52:49
appearing at all is a clear sign that00:52:53
cause four negotiations00:52:56
in the corridors00:52:58
in Washington are growing anyway00:53:03
the fat remains that there is the other00:53:08
View00:53:09
which when you really unpack it it00:53:12
doesn't offer a route to Victory00:53:16
it doesn't offer a way of sustaining the00:53:19
war what it basically is saying is00:53:23
better a defeat in Ukraine an outright00:53:26
clear-cut straightforward defeat00:53:30
than a compromise with the Russians a00:53:34
compromise with Vladimir Putin with00:53:36
Lucifer himself in effect Lucifer's00:53:39
representative on Earth and as Putin is00:53:44
almost described nowadays and one where00:53:48
of course00:53:49
as um Resnick of those in his article00:53:54
for the guardian invocations of 1938 and00:53:59
the Munich agreement of that year00:54:02
are of course trotted out once more00:54:08
I suspect that over the next few weeks00:54:11
and months00:54:13
difficult arguments and recriminations00:54:15
will take place00:54:17
if there's a further Russian offensive00:54:20
an offensive to grind the ukrainians00:54:23
down as I said it's likely that calls00:54:28
for negotiations will grow00:54:31
but00:54:32
they will undoubtedly be a pushback00:54:37
there will be warnings of betrayal00:54:40
betrayal of Ukraine and of the West's00:54:43
values value system warnings that the00:54:47
entire rules-based order is in jeopardy00:54:51
and it's far from clear to me how things00:54:54
will go anyway just wanted to say all of00:54:59
that today now00:55:01
what else is going on in the world00:55:04
because it's not just about Ukraine now00:55:06
in a recent program I discussed at some00:55:09
length the developing relationship00:55:11
between Russia and North Korea and I00:55:16
mentioned this article by Ray McGovern00:55:19
on this topic about the fact that there00:55:22
was some reason to think that Russia was00:55:26
providing Technical and Industrial00:55:29
support to North Korea to assist it in00:55:32
its nuclear weapons program00:55:35
and that article in turn was based on an00:55:38
analysis of the latest Cry song 18 solid00:55:43
fuel00:55:45
intercontinental ballistic missile which00:55:48
Ukraine North Korea has unveiled and00:55:51
which Theodore apostol rocket scientist00:55:54
says looks identical to Russia's top or00:55:58
M00:55:59
anyway we've had some interesting00:56:03
developments since that Rhema governed00:56:06
piece and firstly the Russians have made00:56:11
defined statements about their relations00:56:14
with North Korea00:56:17
um00:56:18
Dmitry peskov00:56:20
Putin spokesman00:56:23
made these comments00:56:25
over the course of a press conference00:56:28
yesterday he said we have our own00:56:30
relations with Pyongyang we value these00:56:33
relations as North Korea is our neighbor00:56:36
and we will of course continue to00:56:39
develop relations with North Korea00:56:43
regardless of the opinion of other00:56:46
countries00:56:48
and00:56:49
the past dispatch00:56:54
that contains these comments of perskov00:56:57
says that00:56:58
perskov made them00:57:01
in response to recent allegations by00:57:05
Jake Sullivan President Biden's National00:57:08
Security adviser that the Russians and00:57:11
the North Koreans are pressing forward00:57:14
with00:57:15
a deal whereby North Korea supplies00:57:20
shells to Russia00:57:22
for Russia to continue to conduct00:57:26
the conflict in Ukraine00:57:30
now peskov00:57:32
had an opportunity00:57:35
yesterday when he made those comments00:57:38
to deny00:57:41
straightforwardly all claims about00:57:44
Russian North Korean military00:57:47
cooperation00:57:49
he could have also said for example that00:57:52
claims by Theodore apostol which have00:57:55
received quite a lot of attention00:57:58
that Russia is assisting North Korea in00:58:02
its nuclear weapons program he could00:58:05
have said that these were completely00:58:07
untrue and had no basis in fact00:58:10
instead he's come out with this00:58:13
remarkably defiant comment we value our00:58:18
relations with North Korea as our00:58:19
neighbor and we will of course continue00:58:22
to develop relations with North Korea00:58:25
regardless of the opinion of other00:58:27
countries it's a pre-defined statement00:58:31
now it is not an admission that Russia00:58:34
is helping North Korea develop nuclear00:58:37
weapons and I want to stress again that00:58:40
it is still conjecture pure conjecture00:58:42
that Russia is providing that level of00:58:46
assistance and perhaps in fact it is not00:58:52
but certainly it does seem as if Russia00:58:57
and North Korea are coming closer and it00:59:01
does look as if the Russians are now00:59:03
seriously considering at the very least00:59:06
developing economic relations with North00:59:10
Korea as well00:59:12
and00:59:13
a further announcement that came out of00:59:16
Russia yesterday00:59:19
is to the effect that Russia is now00:59:23
upgrading00:59:25
its Embassy in Pyongyang00:59:28
apparently it's only about 18 people00:59:32
Staffing that Embassy up to now00:59:35
apparently the embassy is going to be00:59:37
strengthened there's going to be a00:59:39
rotation of staff and many more00:59:42
officials and diplomats Russian00:59:44
diplomats are going to be appointed to00:59:47
the Embassy in Pyongyang which suggests00:59:51
that the Russians are indeed intent on00:59:54
developing their relationship with North00:59:57
Korea00:59:58
in the meantime the North Koreans have01:00:00
been taking their own actions and01:00:03
they've been pretty spectacular which is01:00:06
that Kim01:00:07
Kim Jong-un01:00:09
has now attended01:00:12
a ceremony01:00:14
at which a nuclear-powered01:00:17
ballistic missile submarine01:00:20
North Koreans ballistic missile01:00:22
submarine was launched and we've seen01:00:25
photos of this submarine which01:00:29
well I'm sure it's nothing like as big01:00:34
or as sophisticated as the nuclear01:00:38
powered submarines of the established01:00:41
nuclear powers of China Russia the01:00:45
United States Britain and France but it01:00:49
looks far bigger than any other01:00:53
submarine that you North Korea has01:00:55
operated up to this point01:00:58
apparently it is nuclear powered01:01:00
apparently it can launch ballistic01:01:02
missiles01:01:03
perhaps these do not have a full01:01:06
InterContinental range nobody seems to01:01:09
know and01:01:12
the01:01:13
configuration01:01:15
of this submarine01:01:18
suggests at least an attempt to make it01:01:22
quieter stealthier than other North01:01:25
Korean submarines01:01:27
this does look on the face of it like a01:01:32
huge leap in capability01:01:36
now01:01:38
North Korea itself should not be01:01:41
underestimated I've discussed this many01:01:43
times it does have a significant01:01:46
scientific and Industrial base01:01:50
but in the light of01:01:52
the claims that people like postal is01:01:56
making one must ask and wonder01:02:00
whether perhaps North Korea has had some01:02:04
external assistance in developing this01:02:07
submarine and whether possibly that01:02:10
assistance might have come from Russia01:02:14
which is01:02:15
possibly arguably the world leader01:02:19
alongside the United States in nuclear01:02:22
submarine technology01:02:25
I don't know I don't think anybody does01:02:29
these are questions no one can answer01:02:32
but they do show the extent to which01:02:36
North Korea continues to evolve01:02:40
as a kind of pocket superpower it seems01:02:44
to be working towards creating its own01:02:48
mini strategic Triad with land-based01:02:52
intercontinental ballistic missiles sea01:02:55
based submarine launched01:02:59
intercontinental ballistic missiles01:03:01
operated from nuclear submarines which01:03:04
presumably have an unlimited range01:03:08
and well who knows maybe in time the01:03:12
North Koreans will surprise us by doing01:03:14
something in the air as well and of01:03:17
course North Korea is trying to get some01:03:20
kind of satellite array together01:03:24
and perhaps in time it will it does have01:03:28
the launches now to achieve that though01:03:32
again one must ask does it really have01:03:35
the technological capabilities and the01:03:38
resources01:03:40
even if the North Koreans are not doing01:03:42
all of this with the help of the01:03:44
Russians01:03:45
and as I said I have no way of knowing01:03:48
myself whether they do or not01:03:51
the fact that North Korea and Russia are01:03:55
developing relations and the way that01:03:58
they clearly are to be sending alarm01:04:01
that was ringing alarm bells in the01:04:03
United States there is no sign that it01:04:07
is there's no sign that the United01:04:09
States is taking this whole issue01:04:13
seriously there's no sign of any change01:04:15
of policy towards North Korea there's no01:04:18
sign of any change of policy towards01:04:21
Russia they're not even attempts so far01:04:23
as I can see to contact the Russians and01:04:26
to find out from them what exactly is01:04:29
going on I discussed yesterday the01:04:33
sterility of Western policy in terms of01:04:37
Western attempts01:04:39
to get some kind of diplomatic process01:04:42
going in connection with the conflict in01:04:46
Ukraine we see01:04:48
a similar sterility in terms of the U.S01:04:53
approach to what looks like01:04:56
a changing balance of power01:05:00
in the northeastern Pacific01:05:04
well that's01:05:06
Russia North Korea the United States is01:05:10
now also becoming01:05:12
very01:05:14
alarmed clearly very alarmed spooked I01:05:17
think is not the wrong word by the01:05:19
discovery of this advanced01:05:22
chip in the Huawei smartphone and01:05:27
already01:05:28
we see complaints claims in the United01:05:32
States that01:05:33
the Chinese might somehow have stolen01:05:37
the manufacturing technology01:05:40
in the United States there's already an01:05:43
investigation apparently going to be01:05:45
launched01:05:46
to try to find out how the Chinese01:05:49
managed it and if it was done as a01:05:52
result of a leak to hunt down presumably01:05:56
whoever was responsible it's the same01:05:59
kind of reaction that the United States01:06:03
made in the 1950s01:06:06
when in response to the01:06:10
Soviet developments Soviet nuclear01:06:13
weapons developments of that era looking01:06:17
for spies and traitors looking for proof01:06:21
of Technology theft and Industrial theft01:06:26
of course there might be some truth to01:06:28
this but I doubt that there is very much01:06:32
and the largest story again is that the01:06:36
United States clearly01:06:41
can't bring itself to comprehend01:06:44
that in China it has01:06:48
a co-evil01:06:51
a co-equal rather I should say co-equal01:06:54
industrial and technological rival01:06:58
and the China is able to match in terms01:07:01
of Technology anything that the United01:07:04
States does01:07:08
well01:07:10
we're probably going to be hearing an01:07:12
awful lot more about the story before01:07:14
long and if any unfortunate person does01:07:19
get roped into the01:07:22
investigations01:07:25
the bit like Robert Oppenheimer by the01:07:28
way did back in the 50s over the Soviet01:07:30
nuclear weapons developments well I'm01:07:34
sorry for them in advance01:07:37
last but not least before I finished01:07:39
this program I just wanted to turn01:07:42
briefly back to the situation in West01:07:45
Africa01:07:47
we've been hearing lots of reports lots01:07:49
of rumors and stories about an ecowas01:07:53
intervention in Niger01:07:57
every day passes I wait to see whether01:08:01
this intervention force is indeed01:08:03
entering in marching Indonesia01:08:08
no sign of it up to now01:08:11
I'm starting to think that this01:08:14
intervention is never going to happen01:08:16
that this is a bluff and that the bluff01:08:20
has been called and that perhaps the01:08:23
decisive event was the fact that the01:08:25
African Union has spoken out strongly01:08:28
against such an intervention with some01:08:32
of the ecowas states perhaps unwilling01:08:35
to go against the collective view of the01:08:40
African Union01:08:41
if so then the threats of intervention01:08:47
in Niger01:08:49
have perhaps had the opposite effect01:08:54
to the one in the ones intended they01:08:57
probably hardened the position of the01:09:00
Nigeria01:09:01
of the Nigeria authorities01:09:03
and they've also perhaps made them more01:09:07
rather than less willing to seek01:09:11
security guarantees from China and01:09:13
Russia01:09:15
but anyway we'll have to wait and see01:09:17
but as I said I'm starting to think that01:09:20
the ecowas intervention in Nigeria01:09:24
is turning out to be something of a01:09:27
bluff01:09:28
and01:09:30
one other important African related01:09:34
development01:09:36
has just taken place the Indian or01:09:39
should we say Bharat hosts of the G2001:09:42
Summit meeting01:09:44
have now apparently managed to get all01:09:47
the G20 States including China and01:09:50
Russia to agree to the inclusion of the01:09:54
African Union as a member of the G2001:09:59
and I think this is a potentially bigger01:10:02
development because it gives the African01:10:05
Union01:10:07
and even stronger01:10:09
formal legal reality01:10:13
it's01:10:15
I suspect01:10:16
only a matter of time01:10:19
before we see mounting pressure01:10:22
for institutions01:10:24
groups of States groupings of States01:10:27
organizations that group together States01:10:29
like the African Union01:10:32
um01:10:33
asean the Arab League and others to01:10:38
start demanding01:10:41
permanent representation01:10:43
in the security Council in the United01:10:46
Nations01:10:48
and I think that01:10:50
Modi modi's actions in getting the01:10:54
African Union into the G20 is perhaps01:10:58
the single most consequential move01:11:01
that has come out of the G2001:11:06
and will probably be the most01:11:08
consequential move01:11:10
from this Summit meeting that is about01:11:12
to happen in Delhi01:11:15
well there we go there are reports from01:11:19
Russia that turkey is now giving serious01:11:22
thought to an application for brics01:11:24
membership these are Russian reports01:11:27
they might be a bit of Russian wishful01:11:30
thinking we'll have to see but certainly01:11:33
lots of things continue to happen in the01:11:37
world even as the United States01:11:40
and its allies in Europe continue01:11:44
to be trapped01:11:47
inside the crisis in Ukraine well that's01:11:52
me for today more from me soon let me01:11:55
remind you again that you can find all01:11:57
our programs on our various platforms01:11:59
locals and Rumble to remind you again01:12:02
I'm now in the process of re-engaging01:12:04
with Twitter with X I'm going through a01:12:08
course about how to do that by the way01:12:09
and there'll be more from me about that01:12:11
soon and just keep an eye out for it01:12:14
though I will provide I should say01:12:16
notification both on our locals platform01:12:20
and no doubt in a video when that is01:12:24
actually going to actively start01:12:26
happening and in the meantime remember01:12:28
you can also support our work via01:12:30
patreon And subscribe star links under01:12:34
this video and you can also go to our01:12:37
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liked this video please remember to tick01:12:50
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subscription to this channel thank you01:12:55
again for joining me once more and more01:12:58
from me soon01:12:59
[Music]01:13:13
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