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киев

москва

политика

популярная политика

ВСУ

российская армия

война

война на украине

военный эксперт

Руслан Левиев

Conflict Intelligence Team

CIT

алексей навальный

мобилизация

военная помощь

украина

россия

фбк

новости войны

штаб навального

Майкл наки

Кира Ярмыш

украина россия война

зеленский

новости фронта

00:00:03

Tell me please Let's start then

00:00:05

with the topics we raised and then

00:00:07

we'll move on to your

00:00:09

exclusives, all of these For starters Let's

00:00:12

try to somehow tell the audience and

00:00:15

understand for themselves This is what kind of success

00:00:18

Russia has had in certain areas over the

00:00:21

past week they took Liman, for example, and

00:00:23

how this was achieved and

00:00:25

how, in general, this could affect the

00:00:27

current war.

00:00:30

But as far as we can see, the lemon was

00:00:32

actually taken by Russian forces, a

00:00:34

number of settlements were identified

00:00:36

near the dangerous one, that is, some of this

00:00:39

tactical success was indeed achieved by

00:00:41

Russian forces. Of

00:00:43

course there is this affects the cost of

00:00:47

the war, after all, it increases the motivation of

00:00:50

Russian soldiers and, on the contrary, reduces the

00:00:52

motivation of Ukrainian ones Because from

00:00:54

the outside it looks as if

00:00:56

Ukraine is losing Of course, all this

00:00:59

can change at any moment now

00:01:01

Ukraine is

00:01:03

more or less frozen in anticipation of

00:01:05

long-range systems,

00:01:08

for example you can change

00:01:13

while the weeks have passed, there are

00:01:16

some definite successes in the Russian forces. They

00:01:17

were able to advance and I have a

00:01:20

feeling of expectation that within a week,

00:01:23

maybe two. Probably they will be able to

00:01:26

connect with the forces, that is, it’s

00:01:30

safe from the side and I’m moving further

00:01:32

north-west, connecting with the pits of those to

00:01:34

completely complete the encirclement of Severodonetsk

00:01:37

and Lisichansk Judging by the pace of their

00:01:38

advance and Judging by the scale of the fighting

00:01:41

that is going on there, I would fully

00:01:43

expect this. And what is this connected with? That right

00:01:47

now, unexpectedly, the Russian army went

00:01:49

on the offensive, respectively, the Ukrainian

00:01:50

troops began to retreat because all

00:01:52

the last for weeks and many weeks we haven’t

00:01:55

seen any progress at all. Well, at

00:01:57

least everything is ready for us; they promised us

00:01:59

this battle for Donbass, but we saw that

00:02:00

it’s going quite well. Well, in general, it’s not

00:02:03

particularly stormy. And now they always

00:02:05

spoke sharply about the success of the Russian army,

00:02:07

where the forces came from Success

00:02:10

is the same force that was expected,

00:02:12

which at first was there in the Kiev

00:02:15

Chernigov Sumy direction, then

00:02:17

they were taken abroad, that is, today I am going

00:02:19

to the territory of Russia. They rested for some time,

00:02:22

went through the first recruitment there before

00:02:25

equipping them, and then gradually gradually

00:02:27

gradually they began to be led into battle.

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since the road from also the Belgorod

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region of the ancient front, it is literally

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one of two, it is quite narrow, that is, there is so

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much effort to transfer money on the

00:02:43

road, it does not allow the road is also

00:02:46

dangerous and the enemy can fire.

00:02:48

Therefore, the process from all available forces on the

00:02:52

front line is quite lengthy and

00:02:54

now it has reached more or less the Peak and

00:02:57

therefore we see the already emerging effect

00:03:00

from the fact that

00:03:02

plus or minus those forces that were planned are

00:03:04

advancing and due to the fact that the

00:03:06

density of forces in the territory is

00:03:08

quite high, the density of equipment is

00:03:10

high, so it turns out to perform

00:03:12

quite successfully, the same thing the time of the

00:03:15

Ukrainian forces is now a serious shortage of

00:03:18

weapons Despite the fact that

00:03:20

many countries are helping them and that is why

00:03:22

they have to retreat in places,

00:03:25

please tell me this is a shortage of weapons

00:03:28

As you yourself said, at the same time they are supplying

00:03:31

quite a lot of different equipment, howitzers and

00:03:33

everything else. What is missing now and

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can this will change in the near

00:03:39

future, we saw a message, including from

00:03:42

CNN, that the multiple launch rocket system,

00:03:44

which Zelensky requested a lot and in

00:03:47

general spoke a lot about it from the Ukrainian

00:03:49

side, will be approved by the

00:03:52

Americans themselves, that the supply of these systems

00:03:55

will be there himars and the second all the time

00:03:57

abbreviation Forgetting on m

00:04:00

probably starts 270

00:04:02

which on the tracked highway, yes, they

00:04:06

promise to deliver them, but even if

00:04:09

we imagine that next week they will be

00:04:10

delivered, Ukrainian soldiers need to be trained

00:04:13

on these systems. That is, this is the same time

00:04:16

as with the M77 howitzers, they have also been

00:04:19

supplied for quite a long time, but

00:04:22

also Ukrainian Soldiers continue to

00:04:24

undergo training, it’s not like a

00:04:27

day or two and everyone is ready to go forward into battle;

00:04:29

it takes time and this is what delays the

00:04:32

timing of the introduction of these new weapons to

00:04:35

the front of their participation in battles; at the same

00:04:39

time, Russia does not pause but

00:04:42

continues to quickly advance, used by the

00:04:44

moment while the Ukrainians are training there

00:04:46

while they are waiting for the equipment, Russia is already

00:04:49

throwing all its reserves into battle and this is the

00:04:52

difference in the speed of fighting and

00:04:55

it turns out to be a success. Well, this is a tactical

00:04:58

success for Russia so far and it’s too early

00:05:01

to say that Russia

00:05:02

is still winning in the Donbass.

00:05:04

Donbass is lost. But here we are. separate

00:05:07

opposition battles for now, separate advances

00:05:08

they are in Russia Yes indeed there is since

00:05:11

you started talking about reserves. Please tell us

00:05:13

what you learned about the

00:05:15

so-called 3 Battalions, what kind of

00:05:19

history is this and how did you

00:05:22

come up with this and what is it all about because

00:05:25

it is did not actively appear in

00:05:26

the news. As I understand it, in many respects this is

00:05:29

all IT development of

00:05:31

information, called whatever you want,

00:05:34

we have been communicating with different soldiers for three months now,

00:05:39

quite closely with many of them,

00:05:41

they provide various

00:05:44

information there, we check, verify, and

00:05:46

from one of them such sources from

00:05:48

which previously reliable information was always received,

00:05:51

every time they checked it was completely confirmed

00:05:55

with a comma, he once again corrected

00:05:58

the document, we saw directly with our own eyes

00:06:01

visually a document from the General Staff of the

00:06:05

Russian Ministry of Defense which was

00:06:07

sent out to all military districts of Russia, where an

00:06:10

order was given to form reserve forces

00:06:14

battalions, specific numbers are indicated there

00:06:16

Yes, what kind of equipment How much to

00:06:19

provide which battalion only with

00:06:21

personnel determine how many

00:06:24

reservists are planned and training grounds will be

00:06:27

used for the student and what dates of the

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exercises everything is very detailed and we have

00:06:32

studied all this

00:06:33

Based on this, we understand what the hour is

00:06:37

with the current numbers mid-May, the

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recruitment of the so-called reserve

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battalions begins; they are formed on the basis of the so-

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called these in each In each

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brigade and in each regiment there are three

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battalions 1 2 battalions they are the main ones

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there, mostly contract soldiers There are

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real professional

00:06:55

military personnel It was from the first

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battalions that the

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most tactical battalions were originally formed the groups

00:07:02

were then sent into battle on the front line, but

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these reserves cut down some of these groups, some are

00:07:09

broken, some are not combat-ready, some

00:07:11

need to be taken back to Russia so that

00:07:13

they can rest, there should be a rotation

00:07:17

to solve this problem, they decided to

00:07:19

resort to using the remaining

00:07:21

third batteries, always the lowest

00:07:24

priority is precisely In the third

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battalion, conscripts usually serve, but the

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commanders have contract officers.

00:07:32

Accordingly, what will be the principle? They

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will take

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contract officers from those full-time

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professional military personnel who

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remained in permanent deployment points

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but have not yet been involved in the war; they

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will be added to these

00:07:46

contract officers and various reservists. the

00:07:48

very people who were lured by the

00:07:51

military registration and enlistment office with various subpoenas to

00:07:53

clarify their credentials and then they

00:07:55

were agitated to sign a short-term

00:07:57

contract, in principle there were quite a few of these people. They

00:07:59

signed the contract and want to

00:08:03

earn money in this way, and based on

00:08:06

all this it turns out to be a hodgepodge of

00:08:08

battalions of contract soldiers and we

00:08:10

add reservists who are still are not

00:08:12

trained on the basis of this, they form new

00:08:15

units and are sent to the training grounds for 30 days to learn

00:08:20

weapons there, to shoot bottles, to train these

00:08:24

same reservists and then the very

00:08:27

equipment that they will be trained at the training

00:08:29

grounds, they will go into battle now

00:08:32

everything means the date that the readiness of all these

00:08:35

reserves battalions should be

00:08:36

around June 19, we have not yet

00:08:41

communicated with soldiers, we do not expect

00:08:43

that these reserve battalions

00:08:44

are intended for some new

00:08:46

large-scale offensive or these

00:08:48

rumors that there is a word of threat there

00:08:51

for Kiev or the Chernigov direction,

00:08:53

rather No, rather This is precisely for

00:08:56

the need for rotation so that in mid-

00:08:59

June and about this right now, these days they

00:09:02

are fighting in the Donbass, they should be brought back to

00:09:05

Russia for a break. But these reserves of

00:09:07

envy But of course, there are big

00:09:10

problems because I didn’t

00:09:14

serve many people a long time ago and 30 days of training

00:09:16

is not so much especially if you

00:09:19

study a new profession, new

00:09:20

specialties if you were there as a

00:09:21

radiotelephone operator And you will be a

00:09:24

tank driver in 30 days You will not become straight

00:09:26

professional tankers, plus this

00:09:29

also means that now

00:09:32

someone will

00:09:34

take away all the equipment that remained operational and all the

00:09:37

remaining contract servicemen of

00:09:38

professional military personnel This means that

00:09:40

if there is some kind of mobilization in the future,

00:09:42

then there will be no one to train the

00:09:45

mobilized and there will be no equipment

00:09:47

to arm the mobilized. That

00:09:49

is, this thereby creates a big

00:09:51

problem for potential future

00:09:52

mobilization. Do I understand correctly that

00:09:55

these are exactly these forces?

00:09:57

there are the last forces that Russia

00:09:59

can now send to fight in Ukraine

00:10:01

and it turns out that literally after

00:10:04

this, if not declaring a general

00:10:06

or partial mobilization there, then Putin

00:10:08

simply no longer has fresh people who

00:10:10

he can throw there to fight. In

00:10:14

what case will it remain only until

00:10:16

periodically to carry out rotation, that is

00:10:18

then the 1st 2nd battalion is fighting, the third is resting on

00:10:22

the border, then on the contrary, 3 are fighting, 1 2 are out on the

00:10:26

territory of Russia, resting gradually by

00:10:27

mail, changing until people there

00:10:30

run out of new forces Yes, new forces are

00:10:32

already further away Yes, there will simply be

00:10:34

nowhere to get them from,

00:10:36

in principle, a working scheme that is

00:10:39

literally constantly change just two

00:10:40

batches of people one for another, that is, how

00:10:43

long can this last, how long will it be

00:10:44

enough? In principle, the truth of these people and the

00:10:46

strength they have to fight is

00:10:48

the only correct

00:10:50

strategy. If you don’t change people, if they

00:10:52

will, if you don’t add new people,

00:10:55

otherwise change only the 1st 2nd battalion to be replaced by

00:10:58

the third one Constantly mixing only

00:11:00

these people no more adding new ones then am

00:11:01

I not very well versed in

00:11:04

military affairs But is

00:11:07

this really enough to wage a

00:11:09

full-scale war for a long time or

00:11:11

will the strength simply run out and people will end quickly It’s

00:11:14

clear that individual the formations

00:11:16

will suffer losses and a separate battalion of

00:11:19

tactical groups will be defeated,

00:11:21

let’s say they lost some of the

00:11:22

personnel there and they will be

00:11:24

inferior and

00:11:26

even the tactics that were used on

00:11:29

February 24 will be used there, speaking to mid-April

00:11:32

when there is a certain political

00:11:34

group that fought in the Chernikov

00:11:35

direction in the pumping direction she

00:11:37

lost there, let’s say, half of the

00:11:39

personnel or equipment, they were taken back to

00:11:41

Russian territory and then from such

00:11:43

fragments of different groups they form a new one,

00:11:47

they ask her again and throw her into battle. That is, it’s

00:11:49

as if a new whole is assembled from fragments;

00:11:51

without the influx of new forces,

00:11:54

it turns out simply because skolov collect

00:11:55

new Ruslan, please tell me, and you

00:11:58

mentioned that because of this,

00:12:00

difficulties with mobilization may arise even

00:12:02

if a decision is made to

00:12:05

mobilize people. How Well, that is,

00:12:07

how will this interfere with mobilization? This is for

00:12:09

10 years of the so-called third

00:12:11

battalion to which you tell

00:12:13

the most important thing is lack of equipment That

00:12:16

is, if I don’t know the uniform there, boots,

00:12:20

helmets, machine guns for the mobilized, you can

00:12:22

get them, but this is not such a big problem,

00:12:24

and cartridges if we are talking about tanks,

00:12:28

infantry fighting vehicles, some kind of

00:12:30

artillery, I simply won’t have anywhere to take it, in the end, what

00:12:34

will happen, what will it

00:12:36

be these are the same rifle

00:12:38

battalions that we saw in the DPR LPR

00:12:41

motorized rifle battalions and simply rifle battalions,

00:12:43

that is, simply light infantry with

00:12:44

machine guns in their hands without any

00:12:47

armored equipment or any means of

00:12:49

mechanization on trucks throws the

00:12:51

front line and forwards into an attack with a machine gun

00:12:54

against artillery or against tanks

00:12:57

plus if the

00:13:00

mobilization of these people is carried out, also

00:13:04

train the

00:13:05

training grounds, they remembered all the skills and the

00:13:09

training

00:13:12

will be taught if all the officers are

00:13:15

already there at the front, plus we see a lot, and in the

00:13:18

past couple of months there, we saw

00:13:19

a lot of people who were originally there

00:13:23

in training tank regiments, for example them

00:13:25

sent immediately to the front line,

00:13:28

including those officers who

00:13:30

trained other soldiers in these learned tank regiments and

00:13:32

they also went to the front line and

00:13:34

essentially died there, teachers of military discipline

00:13:37

simply won’t And

00:13:39

what remains is only to mobilize people

00:13:42

to give them a uniform Give them a machine gun even without preparing for the

00:13:45

battle Then it will just be spending

00:13:49

Ruslan The last thing I want to ask is

00:13:53

you know sooner How to look for a military

00:13:56

philosophical We are generally like the

00:14:00

audience and everyone We are very susceptible to

00:14:02

the Situation that exists in the moment Yes, for

00:14:05

example, Russia has moved away from Chernigov in the

00:14:07

Kiev direction, we are all Putin

00:14:09

lost the war tomorrow, an idle victory for the Abramians

00:14:12

on Red Square, and then it means that

00:14:13

Russian forces managed to push back the

00:14:16

Ukrainian troops on one. That means

00:14:19

the war is lost. Putin will take over the whole world

00:14:22

and make everyone slaves. I would like to understand

00:14:24

in the big picture what

00:14:27

happened now, it leads to the fact

00:14:31

that the situation in Ukraine has become worse or

00:14:34

leads to the fact that there

00:14:36

will be no Ukrainian counter-offensive, which you also

00:14:38

talked about, for example, in an interview with Medusa,

00:14:40

that is, have your global

00:14:42

feelings about this war changed? forecasts for the

00:14:44

near future because of the offensive

00:14:46

that we saw last week

00:14:50

No, they haven’t changed much. Moreover,

00:14:53

we see that Ukraine, unlike

00:14:54

Russia, has been mobilizing for a long time,

00:14:56

that is, they are

00:14:58

increasing the personnel of their army even more, plus they

00:15:01

go by the following expression: Yes, it is going

00:15:03

slowly and that’s why they are

00:15:06

dragging on for a long time but I think

00:15:09

that this is the situation: one side

00:15:11

retreats, then vice versa, and the other side

00:15:14

advances, it will

00:15:16

change periodically depending on When they get

00:15:19

tired The soldiers will run out of

00:15:21

armored vehicles will suffer some

00:15:23

serious losses Now we are talking about the fact

00:15:26

that Russia is successfully advancing

00:15:28

just a year and a half ago Everything We were waiting for

00:15:32

Begorov and a pontoon crossing through

00:15:35

Seversky Donetsk, where successfully

00:15:39

such Ukrainians were destroyed two

00:15:40

batarian tactical groups of Russia, this

00:15:42

was a serious loss for the Russian forces,

00:15:45

so I think this will

00:15:47

happen periodically, constantly change, and if

00:15:50

we strengthen the very same high-mars that

00:15:52

promised to start providing them, then I

00:15:55

think in a

00:15:56

month, we will again see a serious

00:15:59

change in the situation, but as I said,

00:16:01

in a month, Russia’s reserves will also be strengthened.

00:16:03

Therefore, I think that what

00:16:06

will happen next will still be sorted out,

00:16:08

it will be even harder, even

00:16:10

bloodier, now I have a complete

00:16:13

feeling that now it’s not even the

00:16:16

best optimistic forecast

00:16:19

No one promised that it would be positive

00:16:21

Thank you very much Ruslan Leveev

Description:

«Новых сих не будет, их просто неоткуда взять, кроме мобилизации». В эфире «Популярной политики» — военный эксперт и основатель Conflict Intelligent Team Руслан Левиев. По его сведениям у российской армии заканчиваются ресурсы, а военным, которые прямо сейчас находятся в Украине, необходимо срочно отправить домой для восстановление сил. Обсуждаем, что сейчас происходит на фронте и чего ждать в ближайшем будущем. Гость: Руслан Левиев Ведущие: @MackNack Кира Ярмыш https://www.facebook.com/unsupportedbrowser Станьте спонсором канала, и вы получите доступ к эксклюзивным бонусам. Подробнее: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7Elc-kLydl-NAV4g204pDQ/join Наш список разжигателей войны: https://acf.international/ru/list-of-war-enablers Наш проект «Цены сегодня». Смотрите, как менялась стоимость товаров после начала войны: https://pricing.day/ Бот команды Навального: https://t.me/teamnavalny_bot Наши соцсети! Телеграм: https://t.me/politica_media Инстаграм: https://www.facebook.com/unsupportedbrowser Твиттер: https://twitter.com/politica_media Поддержите нашу работу! 🔸Безопаснее всего делать это через криптовалюту. Биткоин-кошелёк: 3QzYvaRFY6bakFBW4YBRrzmwzTnfZcaA6E 🔸Наш Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/navalny_team 🔸Другие способы есть на сайте (в России открывается через VPN): https://donate.acf.international/ru

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