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Russian
00:00:04
but now we already have a special opinion00:00:07
Vladislav inozemtsev economist we are00:00:09
visiting the isle of whether they00:00:12
say good evening well and accordingly in the chat of00:00:15
our broadcast on a live nail you can00:00:17
ask your questions, share your00:00:20
opinions, thoughts, remarks,00:00:22
sighs from the homi and so on and so on Well, in00:00:25
general, I even have to say some00:00:28
hopes, I was looking forward to our meeting00:00:30
because I, as a person living in00:00:33
Russia, am very interested in everything that00:00:35
awaits us in connection with the sanctions, and we need to somehow00:00:38
hear a person who can at least00:00:40
explain something of what is happening00:00:42
right now. 6th package of sanctions 6th00:00:46
package of sanctions and the European Union, but it’s probably00:00:49
not only the European Union that will impose these00:00:50
sanctions, but what else can be introduced? what other00:00:54
sanctions against Russia can be introduced in the00:00:56
sixth package in the seventh package, is there00:00:58
a feeling that the sanctions potential is00:01:01
already being somewhat exhausted?00:01:04
It concerns the language, too.00:01:08
there is a feeling that it is being00:01:11
exhausted not so much because of the00:01:14
sanctions at the top, but because the00:01:17
Europeans have already, in general, approached this00:01:21
limit of00:01:22
information policy. What I now00:01:24
see from those00:01:26
discussing sit down, yes, and this is a lot of00:01:29
forest more in America, Europe,00:01:31
which is trying to think about that what00:01:34
new sanctions can be applied against00:01:36
Russia? I would say that all of these sanctions00:01:38
concern, let’s say, but they also have such00:01:42
fine tuning, that is, they say, let’s just say00:01:43
that we need to further increase the00:01:46
number of personal sanctions to conduct a party00:01:48
in fact, the entire cop needs to be a state-owned company00:01:50
against all members of a united Russia, many00:01:54
other categories of citizens ourselves and00:01:56
let's run the data on the banks that the data is00:01:58
secret, that a certain number of00:02:00
Russian banks need to go further, I00:02:02
think Sberbank will turn off Swift as00:02:05
part of the next package of sanctions, there00:02:07
may still be 10 banks and so on, that00:02:10
is, in essence, what has already been said00:02:13
as applied to several00:02:16
individual structures, the structure will be00:02:18
extended, and yes, yes, and let’s say00:02:21
regarding oil and gas, here of course we00:02:22
see really the limit of the00:02:25
Kopeisk possibilities of00:02:27
discussing this, this has been going on for00:02:30
several weeks now, there is no consensus and you00:02:33
won’t, I think that the final formation00:02:36
will be its own because that he will refuse00:02:39
Russian oil in00:02:40
2023, Russian gas, well, I think 2500:02:44
26 that is, it will be very clearly00:02:46
stated and again the demand for Russian wear will tend to this,00:02:51
it will decrease quite quickly, but it is00:02:55
precisely a total sanction that00:02:57
we do not buy anything at all from Russia00:02:58
this will not happen, I think that a certain00:03:01
amount of European export goods00:03:03
will be brought from the category of00:03:05
cattle tail undesirable when many00:03:07
companies themselves do not represent the position of00:03:09
the products transported by the sanctions, but in my00:03:12
case this process is now, of course,00:03:13
fading and this is understandable because00:03:16
the sanctions are very powerful, it00:03:19
seems to me that Of course, now the most00:03:22
important thing is to wait for them, this is a00:03:24
pain for you, you need to understand this is often a00:03:26
forgotten mess, even those sanctions that00:03:28
were strong in previous packages are far from00:03:30
Mrs. work because many of them00:03:32
were timed for May-June and00:03:34
even aux, this is an important clarification because00:03:37
that from the lips of the wrong politician in the West I00:03:42
now don’t remember the names right away00:03:43
from Poland they were from Germany they00:03:46
said listen to, in my opinion, our00:03:48
sanctions they were talking about themselves, in my opinion they are00:03:51
not so effective and the Russians are experiencing00:03:53
them easier than we thought it you know this kind of00:03:56
delayed effect, you know what happens with a00:03:58
pill, here’s how to wipe it off and drink it in00:04:00
courses, that is, you sang it doesn’t mean00:04:02
that with 1 tablet you will already start to get00:04:03
better, atomic will happen to00:04:05
accumulate for the effect, so the medicines00:04:07
can be earned, well, here the color itself is more likely anti00:04:08
medicines,00:04:11
these are really so that is,00:04:13
Russia is really surviving00:04:15
the sanctions better than expected or it just has00:04:17
n’t happened yet, this cumulative00:04:19
effect00:04:20
exists here and we have one side that has already00:04:25
spoken about this many times already, that there is a financial xiao triten00:04:28
station policy very efficient00:04:31
gas fictitious than even possible00:04:33
assume further a hundred times the fact that00:04:35
measures were introduced to limit the sale of00:04:39
currency, in fact, on the mandatory00:04:42
sale of foreign currency earnings,00:04:44
the gauss of the ruble was stabilized, there00:04:46
was practically no moment of00:04:48
biante reorganization, you think, and the00:04:50
organizers themselves of these starling stations00:04:52
were absolutely 5 which, again,00:04:55
we saw on the other day that Russia continues00:04:58
to service its external debt, but00:05:01
many were not ready for something, I’m really saying that this00:05:02
will happen, but00:05:05
most would be confident in the oven00:05:07
they said default, with a blow, right now, back at the00:05:11
end of March, a big article on Wednesday, I’m00:05:16
saying that there will be no default on00:05:18
external obligations until you and00:05:19
I prompt you to immediately apply in this00:05:23
regard, of course, the sansa work poorly on the00:05:25
other side, indeed, but they are also00:05:27
reflected, but I would note once again that00:05:30
maite is a sanction and there is a00:05:33
company’s reaction to what is happening, I will tell you00:05:36
today's actions of the company on00:05:37
what is happening are more significant than00:05:40
the sanctions of the world because we saw00:05:43
that about 600 Russian companies left, we00:05:46
saw that00:05:48
import operations could be reduced very seriously, we00:05:52
saw that it is better with logistics, for example in the00:05:54
north-west, first of all in the00:05:56
Chinese direction, the reduction also00:05:59
begins the ebb is not only there of planes00:06:02
that are already there, in fact, partially00:06:03
finished, partially the shine of the actual00:06:06
steel, now a wave of reviews of00:06:09
containers will begin, which 70 percent of us are00:06:10
not ours, were leased, and there are00:06:13
a lot of similar moments for you00:06:16
that will happen, they will00:06:17
have an impact on the entire economy and this is00:06:19
not sanctions film is the00:06:21
direct effect of individual pipes00:06:24
on corporations, it exceeds the ointment from today00:06:26
and fixations, that is, these can be00:06:28
said to be reputational sanctions when a00:06:30
company, without00:06:32
instructions from its state, decides that00:06:35
we will not trade with Russia have anything to00:06:36
do with it because and for that reason,00:06:39
why they may not be what we sit down00:06:40
explains, but this is ours before and the00:06:43
final point for you today,00:06:45
in my opinion, according to expert estimates, it is00:06:47
higher than the00:06:50
effect of purely males, it is no more, I repeat once again,00:06:53
you need to understand that very many00:06:54
sanctions they are, even if they are visible00:06:57
immediately, yes they are have a very delayed00:06:59
effect, for example, in this package, and00:07:02
again,00:07:05
any supply of equipment for, say, the00:07:08
production of liquefied natural gas00:07:09
in Russia was very strictly prescribed by the banks in Russia, there was a very large program for the00:07:12
development of natural gas, it took just00:07:14
35 years to save it. this is actually a00:07:18
very important program because we00:07:20
see that if in the oil industry the protective part of00:07:23
exports goes by sea, then in the gas00:07:28
sector00:07:30
there are only 15 liquefied gas exports00:07:32
and, accordingly, if they are from00:07:35
him, then new pipes, although you are00:07:38
young, China will be required it’s very00:07:39
difficult00:07:40
in this couple of important things, the hour is00:07:42
completely torpedoed and because even00:07:45
China cannot replace this00:07:46
equipment, but you need to understand that the00:07:48
next project under this program00:07:51
was supposed to be introduced in the twenty-fifth00:07:53
year, the00:07:54
largest 20 minutes twenty-nine,00:07:56
that is, in this case, formal you will not00:07:58
feel the change in the00:08:00
situation today before the sanctions, these are there in the00:08:02
future, of course, they will complicate the situation up to00:08:04
100, we but the company doesn’t want to, that’s why I’ll00:08:06
repeat it again in00:08:08
this case, it seems to me that sanctions are00:08:10
needed, as if the effect of them needs to be expected, it00:08:14
will manifest itself, well, in my opinion estimates that00:08:17
somewhere at the end of the summer the beginning of the efforts is not for00:08:20
you, how00:08:21
will we understand00:08:24
that this is not happening at one moment,00:08:27
woke up and oh, the trees and sticks, today00:08:30
it worked all the same, here they are sanctions00:08:33
in kind in such areas as this will happen,00:08:36
there is how inside,00:08:37
understand it will not happen and catching ours is00:08:40
still more likely to work than not, I00:08:42
think that you will have a business in a thermos00:08:44
because he is older than you, there are a huge00:08:46
number of different kinds of problems, I live00:08:48
in logistics that the00:08:50
tariffs for other delivery will have to wait00:08:52
a few times, we will see this and it’s00:08:55
high time not to see it allow the very flowers00:08:57
that could not be delivered to the holiday00:08:59
during the deterioration in quality we have experienced,00:09:01
we will greatly increase in the trade the00:09:04
share of counterfeit00:09:06
licensed goods at the expense of 1 to 3 at00:09:08
the expense of the whole, then say to the boarding school of00:09:10
delivery leaflets, that is, when they00:09:12
tell you whether you want to choose, let's say00:09:14
there is a battery for your phone,00:09:17
say the real one,00:09:20
some kind of Chinese substitute,00:09:22
now there is a bar in six months, in a year,00:09:24
you won’t even be talking about it, just the days of the00:09:27
Chinese substitute, yes, we will see00:09:29
the situation is very difficult for00:09:31
car repairs with any complex equipment, there is00:09:34
really a problem with aviation00:09:36
transportation, there00:09:37
will be a lot of00:09:40
noticeable things from the point of view of even the00:09:42
appearance of the goods until we understand that in a00:09:44
month the act of supply will stop, either00:09:46
on the foil that was used in the00:09:48
tetra pack packaging00:09:49
75 percent of our packaging00:09:51
sausage sausage was fiddling with the rural union, the00:09:54
cessation of deliveries will be on June 1, that00:09:56
is, in general this kind things00:09:58
will happen everywhere, let's say the00:10:00
same expensive types of beer are no longer00:10:02
used simply because00:10:03
their melba is 100 percent imported and it is00:10:06
impossible to combine it, that is, I00:10:09
think that this will gradually happen,00:10:11
we will see a deterioration in the goods of00:10:14
which no one has an assortment of goods00:10:17
as a natural increase in prices, but00:10:19
once again I say that I am absolutely convinced and00:10:22
I talk about this a lot that these males will not00:10:24
stop the war, that they cannot00:10:26
lead to complete paralysis, the collapse of00:10:28
the economy, that the idea of fighting sanctions00:10:31
against aggression is noble but00:10:34
not feasible, that is, even if you00:10:36
completely blocked by supplies, announce the00:10:38
Russians, for a year and a half or two, Russia00:10:41
may well exist in the current regime with the00:10:43
current military expenditures and the crazy politics of the village,00:10:46
this will not undermine the Kremlin’s determination to do what it00:10:50
is doing now, that is, it00:10:52
seemed to me that sanctions could have a00:10:55
2nd option of application or simply punish well00:10:57
That’s exactly what I’m punishing you for 700:10:59
and that’s it, even though the grass won’t00:11:01
grow and so on, and the second option is to00:11:04
introduce sanctions in order to somehow00:11:06
influence your behavior, but I00:11:08
like the way you behave, so we00:11:10
limit you in this way The fact is00:11:12
that you thought about it and changed something in00:11:14
yourself, that is, we manage to00:11:17
return, as it seems to you, the West00:11:18
to focus on the first option, that00:11:20
is, simply punish or still00:11:21
hoped to influence without touching, of course, without00:11:24
Tanya, I hope this is all by the year 14, this is not the00:11:27
highest hope now, too, it’s not00:11:30
working out yet, I think the value will increase,00:11:33
but it seems to me that already now there is an00:11:36
understanding of the western side of the khan will00:11:38
only grow stronger, that in essence, you need00:11:41
not to be offended by Russia, don’t try not to00:11:43
rule, you just need to build peace without00:11:45
it, that is, for your own safety,00:11:47
you need to not buy carriers from Russia for days, you do00:11:50
n’t need to invest00:11:54
money there because it’s kicking in order for00:11:56
losses to form perfectly as the other day the00:11:58
control above of you there are no reviews on and00:12:02
sang in the morning00:12:04
after problems with the oil spill in the00:12:07
Gulf of Mexico00:12:10
that is, this kind of thing is a toxic00:12:12
country that can only lose00:12:14
a day and get into trouble, but00:12:15
cooperation that doesn’t really00:12:17
give anything, so now they very often00:12:21
say perfectly well, you know better than me, that00:12:24
we will return to the Soviet Union, yes, it’s so00:12:26
good there, wonderful and wonderful, and this is00:12:29
actually in the groin cannot be00:12:31
implemented in secret less, but you00:12:34
just need to understand that the war of the Soviet00:12:36
Union about this age, ensuring00:12:38
newspaper editorials of the next deployment of00:12:41
missiles, no one knew anything and00:12:43
no one tried their goods in Russia, did not00:12:46
buy too much only00:12:48
in recent years in the seventies00:12:50
quite active export of oil and gas of the00:12:53
Soviet Union began, before this foreign00:12:56
trade is 1 percent of GDP, with00:12:59
the exception of some statistical00:13:01
countries you ca00:13:03
n’t even breathe about the existence of such an economic giant,00:13:04
so the same thing will happen now, yes, that00:13:07
is, you want to be the Soviet Union and00:13:08
we want to have the same with you relations00:13:10
as if then this is not a punishment, this is not a00:13:13
curse, this is just a statement of the fact00:13:15
that if you go back, then00:13:17
we will adjust everything accordingly and00:13:19
will also operate with you so well00:13:22
that, well, is this possible general00:13:24
technical energy because the world is00:13:26
quite economic in any00:13:28
sense are already integrated to a low level, then00:13:31
you can take Russia from this and here it is,00:13:33
after all, take out the cube, it’s00:13:35
quite big, but not very big, in fact, it’s00:13:37
easy to bend it right out of this,00:13:39
look, I’m also a guy, what if we00:13:43
look at large Western companies,00:13:45
let’s say yes their00:13:48
expansion in Russia is the only00:13:51
company that turns out to be00:13:52
large in Russia, 10 percent of the buns before the00:13:55
crisis had00:13:57
a chance to say how00:13:59
many of their large hypermarkets are growing when analyzing in Russia,00:14:04
this was important for him in terms of00:14:06
revenue, but this is completely left-handed00:14:08
because if we look at00:14:10
volkswagen this will be her bedroom patient00:14:12
yours there could be a little less than 5 of us and00:14:15
Madonna read out now at the first desks00:14:17
in the USA and yes he did he did write off00:14:22
$4,500 for the Russian business00:14:24
but at the same time overall sales grew00:14:27
worldwide and earnings per share also00:14:30
made you even a little higher than expectations, that is, in00:14:32
this case we see that this00:14:34
is not a design for large Western00:14:36
bankers, well, of them, Russian business has only00:14:39
been identified, aged, I think that these00:14:42
assets will be sold before the end of the year, they were00:14:45
written off from their own, this is not a00:14:47
big problem, Deutsche Bank was also00:14:50
very added standing March having a00:14:53
subsection in Russia again a corporate00:14:55
client they worked good luck the bank announced the00:14:57
exit of the Russian market was complete and00:14:59
on the day when it was announced its00:15:01
capitalization on the outposts of the stock exchange was -1 1.600:15:05
billion and grew00:15:07
in Russia contributed to the problem despite the fact00:15:11
that the average profit of the Russian business00:15:13
in 20 minutes, that is, in fact, if he hadn’t worked on one,00:15:15
he would have worked 82 you income and00:15:19
it’s like in each case, everything is00:15:22
natural individually, but in any00:15:24
case, I believe that losses in the Russian00:15:26
market while exporting from Western00:15:29
countries are not at all important00:15:31
because again, pay attention00:15:33
here this year they rarely talk about this on our00:15:36
food counter, well, the00:15:39
contour of the sun, so in fact, if00:15:42
we look at the statistics of the European00:15:43
Union on foreign trade, even in the00:15:45
fourteenth year I was not happy with Skype00:15:47
here fell further and further in growth00:15:50
every year, that is, in principle, this is00:15:52
our our meaning, we are trying to tell them to00:15:54
arrange a problem for them, it didn’t work out,00:15:57
or for example, let’s say everything is talking about the00:16:00
fact that now the money has been blocked00:16:02
cb this is a complete erosion of trust in the financial00:16:06
system and now it will begin to collapse00:16:08
somewhere he is approximately 8 percent of00:16:11
the population giving euros than February 20th00:16:14
day and percent more expensive point 13 in the00:16:16
game not everything happened Dominicans00:16:19
garden select all forecasts of Mr.00:16:22
charisma and his friends are not as they00:16:23
claim, therefore00:16:26
without Russia it is very possible Russia is00:16:29
really important and down first of00:16:33
all oil and gas again all my00:16:35
anal first of all to Europe and00:16:38
cotton wool and cut the false one in itself it is very00:16:41
important before the Europeans are very concerned about this00:16:44
fact really because the00:16:46
Germans are not joking as they say that there is00:16:48
now you will come Russian gas in Manila00:16:50
three stage, here we really00:16:54
hold mine voluntarily rigidly, but again this00:16:57
has its own temporary uac because00:17:00
indeed for the time being I the00:17:03
singer was not afraid of these situations, even00:17:05
Anna of all the films, she did not cause any00:17:07
terrible rejection, now they00:17:10
understand perfectly well that the situation is really00:17:12
big for all possible boundaries and00:17:14
therefore the fact that they will refuse for00:17:16
several Russian energy resources, it will00:17:18
not cause some themselves, this will be done00:17:21
even despite the losses and despite the fact00:17:24
that this is a hell of a lot of money,00:17:26
I think that the minimum that will be received00:17:30
from this hadith per year is a00:17:33
voltage of three or four years, quite a00:17:36
large volume00:17:38
this is at night large 4 percent according to its union00:17:42
annual there is a reread on the annual00:17:45
size this is a lot of course but this is00:17:48
the price of the fact that the risks are really00:17:51
too great yes or production and in00:17:54
fact purely economically because00:17:56
no one can understand what the00:17:58
Russians should do Tomorrow I will close the valve myself,00:18:00
which Goland itself should have done a long time ago,00:18:03
takes into account the result that00:18:04
comes from the Kremlin, one way or another,00:18:07
people are really afraid, but in other00:18:09
regions,00:18:10
I honestly don’t see how this is a00:18:11
serious opportunity for 37. Well, on the other00:18:15
hand, it still can’t be said that00:18:17
position of the Europeans Dina uuuu Hungarian income00:18:21
Austrians they have big doubts00:18:23
scientists are discussing their preserved oil00:18:25
embargo and cannot agree on a single00:18:27
position because those who are00:18:29
more dependent on00:18:30
energy resources Russian anime pants00:18:33
will solve this problem slowly00:18:34
of course you don’t want to burn00:18:38
there is no unity against Putin now, but the dependence on00:18:41
oil is still less, as I understand it, than the00:18:42
dependence on gas, if we discuss00:18:44
gas problems there, it will be even00:18:45
more difficult for us, there is a chance to play on these00:18:48
contradictions, in fact, they00:18:51
will play on them, yes I thought that to me the type of00:18:53
body is not a very good agent of the00:18:55
Kremlin, the implementation of transfers to Moscow of all the00:18:58
discussions that take place there and the00:19:00
influence on the end of us in position, but I’m00:19:03
actually not talking about the fact that they are about to00:19:05
cancel this all Danish Russia00:19:07
can do and cause00:19:09
he wants serious ones for a thousand rupees, but00:19:12
the Europeans will very clearly set a course towards00:19:14
reducing dependence, now I’m00:19:17
raising my toes, it will be announced that with its00:19:19
fluff from Russian oil00:19:21
in 2023, and it is unlikely that it will be clearly00:19:24
stated from what date the candy at sea00:19:27
may be and the year this is its dar I think00:19:29
it will be more likely to trample the field of 20v00:19:31
quattro in a year Russia, it looks00:19:34
stylish, you can replace the supply of00:19:35
oil, this is actually very difficult, I00:19:37
wanted to ask about where she will get this00:19:39
oil if it is already vodka,00:19:42
this problem is in general, given the00:19:45
fact that oil It00:19:47
is exported from Russia not only through a pipe but also with00:19:49
protective and wash protection and00:19:51
there are no serious problems in increasing this00:19:53
export. In my opinion, I think that by the end of00:19:56
this year there will be a00:19:58
simple replacement of supplies in the oil market, that is,00:20:00
today such a family is from the Persian Gulf00:20:03
and there it goes in different directions not only00:20:06
it, as soon as additional demand arises in Europe,00:20:09
prices will naturally00:20:11
rise and some part of the resources at00:20:14
what hour should Andy go there or to00:20:16
Africa00:20:17
directions and the engraving will be transferred on00:20:21
these in accordance with the places, holes will appear00:20:24
on the pattern on this President, Lord,00:20:27
yes, there is instead of Indiana will go into his hands,00:20:30
he will not take it absolutely, then00:20:32
accordingly, the countries that will be00:20:35
put before00:20:37
the visit that the price of oil is growing,00:20:39
respectively, have noticed such a change,00:20:41
it will grow at the global level, of00:20:43
course he wants to buy cheaper in00:20:45
Russia, the boys are already offering localities00:20:47
a discount and therefore, accordingly,00:20:49
we are absolutely delusional in the fact that part of the oil00:20:51
posts will be distributed Russian goes00:20:53
to where the volume for deliveries will be taken from00:20:56
rubles, that’s what00:20:59
Europe will actually get out of, but Russia does00:21:02
n’t lose anything, it’s just junio welded00:21:04
de Haider there for us, well, a discount, well, it’s00:21:07
still a discount, you’re not right00:21:09
in front of me That’s why I say that in the00:21:12
oil market, as if the tasks are lower, that is, in00:21:14
a couple of years, the days of00:21:17
flows will have crossed the total production volume is unlikely to be00:21:20
seriously increased, at least00:21:21
partially, it may be located in front of HIV,00:21:25
Russia will receive a more expensive00:21:27
delivery arm, a more serious discount, but this does00:21:31
not mean that Russia will receive a boycott or a00:21:33
full tank of oil exports, God forbid this will00:21:35
not happen, this is not the situation with Iraq00:21:38
and the world of the Oka war, this situation with an00:21:40
equal frame was visible, in fact, all-00:21:42
consuming sanctions were introduced because of you,00:21:45
all this is just a separate regional world00:21:49
that will notice Russian oil in Europe00:21:52
for something else, but before the oil, I will00:21:54
regret mounting it, that’s actually00:21:56
all the shows that with the much more complex00:21:58
agate under me they will deal with it, that it00:22:00
will be more difficult to reset it on it,00:22:03
simply because we see that in China00:22:05
the volume is increasing very slowly in00:22:08
the past year from 38 million kilometers00:22:11
in which rickets was suffered and00:22:13
was delivered to the q1000:22:15
and now it will increase but will00:22:17
still require another half of you 3 in00:22:20
order to fully reach the product00:22:21
are punished for reasons it did not work at00:22:24
full capacity I am not a big expert00:22:26
on I I think that, first of all,00:22:28
because this woman is tied to resource00:22:31
buy reserves in Syria, Eastern Siberia, and yes, there are00:22:33
so many problems, and therefore, actually,00:22:36
the problems are bravo for the work of the deposits of00:22:38
which let them need bim00:22:40
because if for the number, well, how to finish00:22:43
this gas pipeline, the main deposits00:22:46
it will take at least another 20000:22:49
thousand and thousands of kilometers to extend it on00:22:50
itself and, in00:22:52
fact, the turn to Kitaev00:22:54
is considered as an incentive for them to poison themselves about their00:22:57
new fields while00:22:58
the metro and there00:23:00
will be more problems with gas00:23:02
because we will be able to transport it through a00:23:05
contract and we will be able to move Peppy pipes of00:23:10
our main ah in the wind it will be difficult00:23:15
deliveries to Turkey and through Turkey and00:23:18
literally through Turkey to the hit of the liquefaction plant in the00:23:21
Mediterranean will probably be00:23:23
possible, but anyway, I’m right and the00:23:26
tourist flow is also behind the action00:23:27
almost to your taste, so00:23:29
I think that The only operational00:23:32
option is to once again put spacers00:23:33
on Turkey or LNG, which will be quite a00:23:38
problem, so here, of course, it will be a00:23:41
serious test, but I will notice00:23:43
that Russian oil exports over the00:23:45
last year were much higher in volume00:23:48
than by volume, I will show you that is, if00:23:51
let's say 2 nineteenth year before the00:23:53
distortions, the pandemic qualifications are up to 50 21 in00:23:57
Europe, we find ourselves in Europe, then you see00:23:59
the ratio will be 8020 there, that is, if00:24:03
for ethical ones, if we take one hundred00:24:05
percent, there 75 percent accounted for00:24:09
oil and 18 percent for gas and the guys in the00:24:13
science system, well then there is, by and00:24:15
large, Russia is not losing anything, it’s still00:24:17
not connected with gas, it’s more difficult than from the sky,00:24:22
just no, yes, I absolutely ran 1 prof00:24:25
will not be in this case, so now you’re00:24:27
changing it, we’ve been around for a long time in the years00:24:32
14 and 15, I have several articles coming out I’ll00:24:35
tear the carrier as if for the Russian00:24:38
economy there’s a lot of software for forecasts that00:24:40
we had 10 years of growth, at that00:24:43
moment I wrote there was a decade of stagnation00:24:46
and it’s just going to start after that, that is, in00:24:49
this case we won’t fall into some kind of00:24:52
cataclysms like ’91 no you that for00:24:57
any problem it is possible to be quieter, it00:25:00
will not be more expensive less effective, but00:25:03
in any case, what we will see in the 20th00:25:07
second and the distant years before the end of the00:25:09
regime will be slow and constant00:25:13
subsidence, that’s what I cannot00:25:14
explain in unity, these are forecasts starting from00:25:17
the central the Russian bank to00:25:19
the world bank from the Ministry of Finance00:25:21
to the output institutions that say00:25:24
we will have a failure of 10 there is 812 percent00:25:27
this year and then there will be a slight00:25:28
red one and to be honest, I don’t00:25:30
understand at all the sources for this, recovery is possible, that is, it00:25:32
seems to me that we00:25:33
will have failure now it is really00:25:36
212 percent next year there is a00:25:39
slow refuge for you then 2 more00:25:42
Potapchuk and because it is necessary for the distance00:25:44
because these are the reasons it is worth talking about a00:25:46
slowdown in the decline and a speedy00:25:48
recovery, yes, that is, I don’t see00:25:50
any reasons at all to imagine00:25:52
any growth coming five simply00:25:55
taking into account the preserved situation because00:25:59
in Russia, naturally, incomes00:26:03
can grow in such a situation, the reduction00:26:06
will not just really hit the00:26:08
industry hard, high-level00:26:10
background import substitution on a scale00:26:12
cannot be done, and00:26:14
then and so on, that is, we will have00:26:16
such a primitivization of the economy00:26:17
that will not lead to growth in any way00:26:20
there will often be a catastrophe, but00:26:23
it’s better not,00:26:24
I remind you that Vladislav and I are00:26:27
talking and talking with the zemstvo in the00:26:29
living nail studio and around me you will see00:26:32
posters that, in general, can00:26:34
somehow decorate your interior, if you wish,00:26:36
you can buy them at the amateur store shop00:26:38
. amateur media come in00:26:42
buyer but from one you will help the development of00:26:44
our channel and the development of the amateur so00:26:46
that such interesting conversations00:26:48
we can continue here I will00:26:50
now take you back a little in our00:26:52
conversation a few minutes00:26:53
ago when you remembered the Soviet Union the00:26:56
Soviet economy which was like something that is00:26:58
not very connected with the world economy00:27:00
was such a thing in itself and we are talking about00:27:03
people who are somehow so00:27:05
nostalgic for those times, and why,00:27:07
strictly speaking, we really00:27:09
cannot return to the Soviet-00:27:11
style economy, they say, but that’s not bad, well, how they00:27:13
also lived in in general, they were somehow dressed and shod,00:27:16
maybe they weren’t very00:27:18
prosperous, but they didn’t live very well, maybe there was a00:27:21
rash on them, but somehow they ate especially,00:27:23
they weren’t hungry, and well, all these00:27:25
stories about the Soviet past, why we00:27:28
can’t and maybe we can00:27:29
go back now to the flour to such a closed00:27:32
cycle when we, at the very least,00:27:34
had our own car, some of our00:27:37
refrigerator, our pans, our00:27:39
oil and gas equipment,00:27:41
our pants,00:27:45
I would say that there are at least00:27:49
three pi than which is unlikely whether we can00:27:51
turn it around, but the first reason is, although it is00:27:55
not the main one,00:27:56
it is that00:27:58
in00:28:00
Soviet times, the00:28:03
general life of the slade, as it were, was not00:28:06
very comfortable for the individual, of course, but he00:28:09
was compared by people so that there 10 1500:28:13
ago, but don’t compare, sat down as a parent,00:28:16
we ourselves are in In this regard, of course,00:28:18
it’s possible to do better, you were lying under why,00:28:22
but now, in fact, our interests00:28:26
would mean a sharp rejection of the fact that we00:28:29
had the last years of returning to what00:28:31
we had long forgotten in the part of the party and00:28:35
there and he probably felt it so strongly to00:28:37
draw the Abashi mountains00:28:39
then Of course, this contrast was more00:28:41
creatures, so00:28:43
I think that just an attempt to return00:28:45
it caused serious social00:28:47
discontent, I told him about the explosion and revolution,00:28:49
but is this fact not to be00:28:52
discounted? The second point is more important, it is to00:28:54
find you yourself00:28:57
said during this time Russia is very00:28:58
actively integrating the world golf, I00:29:01
actually am now much more00:29:03
dependent on the world economy than before00:29:05
because if we look at the cube00:29:07
model of the Lada, and indeed the author00:29:09
behind the billet, the Italians, many then the base from under00:29:12
licenses who but then with the transition from00:29:15
one model of the00:29:16
Soviet pipe the engineers actually00:29:18
copied or behind it all the00:29:20
main parts they called everything with the00:29:22
exception of these years, aren’t your tunnels00:29:24
at the conductors or some other00:29:26
elements there, the speedometer of the hotels that is00:29:29
supplied there is a little more, but00:29:32
today this is outsourcing00:29:34
of the Russian industry, it turned out to be is00:29:36
huge and the00:29:37
reality of the Russian economy from00:29:39
acne for 20 years it was very normal00:29:42
and00:29:43
businessmen act on the basis that00:29:45
if somewhere you can buy something cheap,00:29:47
then you have to do it if it’s cheap,00:29:49
buys abroad and is of good quality,00:29:51
doesn’t discuss the problematic phase, it’s00:29:54
just this dish and what I mean is that00:29:57
we are now00:29:58
dependent on imports, it’s a transcript and00:30:02
long ago we saw that AvtoVAZ very well00:30:04
saw how the prize stopped00:30:07
producing cars with automatic00:30:08
transmissions because we are imported,00:30:11
respectively, I think that as00:30:13
soon as further problems arise,00:30:15
it will turn out that there are many other components00:30:17
was chosen, that is, in fact, there Kamaz is00:30:19
already discussing the basis of the ’76 model of00:30:22
which the strip was legalized, but again00:30:25
this can probably be done,00:30:28
but it returns there, they will buy00:30:29
Kamaz, they can buy the state-owned companies00:30:31
that exist there and the steam one is00:30:34
on that’s who will buy the six00:30:36
models 86 is not clear, but on the00:30:39
other hand, this question is felt in00:30:41
the fact that even those parts that the00:30:43
student manufacturer then produces are the00:30:46
same problem because the engineering00:30:48
production potential of the potential is 6.1,00:30:51
and you’re not talking about the dry superjet,00:30:53
which there are more especially, the manual consists00:30:54
of imported parts and so on, that is,00:30:56
all this can be done, the question is00:30:58
what will be the scale of effort spent on this00:31:02
matter and how much time00:31:04
can you do it because if you can00:31:06
build a new plane there in a whisker and00:31:09
two years and a half is one if you can00:31:11
afford it 15 then you can consider all00:31:13
this can’t not this is a really00:31:15
important topic because00:31:18
well, how can I say those spilling00:31:20
transportation will be very acute already00:31:23
then you start with this 8000:31:26
maintenance with the cessation of supplies of00:31:28
parts so on and the third question is of00:31:31
course also very important is learning00:31:32
that let’s say Soviet for a moment, she’s00:31:34
still a woman, she’s pointing out and00:31:40
very well, but at least it worked00:31:43
today, and if we’re00:31:46
talking about the Soviet economy,00:31:48
then the corruption that existed00:31:50
then doesn’t hold a candle to the 11th part that00:31:54
we have now a huge number and a00:31:56
huge number of opportunities for leaving00:31:59
these here in the fulfillment of obligations,00:32:01
theft of money and so on, but00:32:03
I remember very well the Soviet rollover, in00:32:05
fact, cash and non-cash turnover did00:32:07
not intersect at all, look for you, why is there a00:32:09
lesson in the current situation to achieve this, it is00:32:12
almost impossible not to create a00:32:14
state plan annie, saturate it with specialists00:32:16
not the main thing is to force private business00:32:19
so that he fits in higher, gentlemen, it’s00:32:22
almost impossible to interest00:32:25
his portraits, it will require colossal00:32:26
money, which in the Soviet Union no one00:32:29
naturally spends on any nonsense,00:32:31
but now it will be required, so it00:32:34
seems to me, is it enough for me if00:32:36
the circumstances are not about repeating this00:32:39
we we won’t be able to, the state plan was in the building of the00:32:41
current State Duma, it’s00:32:43
true, and also some older people00:32:46
remember how it was carved a little in this00:32:49
style, the coat of arms of the deposit must have got the coat of arms00:32:52
precisely because the gas plan was in a house with a00:32:54
garage for hunting, marinating it was still reluctant to00:32:56
come off near Marx Avenue but let’s00:33:00
return to one more question that00:33:02
we all did not touch upon literally at the00:33:03
very beginning of our conversation, you,00:33:05
in general, even00:33:08
sang some praises to our financial authorities, who are00:33:11
much better than expected and here and in00:33:14
the West coped with this whole situation,00:33:16
let’s try to decipher it a little Is it00:33:18
possible to tell what the00:33:21
success of this financial policy was in00:33:23
these first two months,00:33:24
what we managed to do and what we may00:33:26
not have been able to do, but look in this00:33:30
case, I am multi-aspect of our social00:33:33
bank for what it did before and in00:33:36
particular, I constantly talk about the fact that the00:33:38
social cat bank is not a00:33:40
rather strange bank because until the00:33:43
start of the war in Ukraine the00:33:45
balance sheet of the central bank of the Russian00:33:47
Federation was absolutely00:33:49
no division in, say, the states share of00:33:54
gold reserves antifreeze it is00:33:57
less than one percent I sing00:33:59
central banks this is a more complex00:34:01
structure for us initially00:34:04
start00:34:06
to create an international one as a counterbalance there, too, the00:34:09
kindest zone and so on, then there the share of00:34:13
gold reserves reaches 85 in the00:34:16
central bank of the Russian Federation for00:34:18
20 share of gold and go to steel00:34:21
currencies in March set 8130 percent00:34:24
here is the recipe, that is, in fact, it is a00:34:27
bank didn’t do anything at all, just00:34:29
kept reserves, the00:34:30
share of the State Duma of apartments was set to zero00:34:34
eight percent, while Sasha 54 before00:34:37
mortgage securities were generally absent in00:34:39
America on the table 2620, that is, in fact, the00:34:41
central bank in the economy of money is00:34:43
not in Khadra, there was simply such a moneybox00:34:45
that manages reserves naturally00:34:48
if you don’t sell the economy’s money, that00:34:51
is, you have reserves and you don’t have reserves, it doesn’t00:34:53
matter to anyone, except for situations00:34:56
that come from an attack on the currency,00:34:58
then you can mobilize part of the00:35:01
reserves by releasing it to the market and donate it for00:35:03
it sedalin Bach couldn’t do it, but00:35:06
yes he from all the very possibility of panic, he00:35:08
came up with currency exchange transactions for00:35:11
most counterparties with the exception of00:35:14
the port and introduced requirements for the sale of foreign exchange00:35:17
earnings and thus it turned out very00:35:19
quickly that the influx of currency was much00:35:21
greater than any reasonable requirements for its00:35:25
purchase because exports are00:35:27
now approximately one hundred thirty-six00:35:29
percent one hundred and forty percent of imports is00:35:30
even more and,00:35:34
again, the00:35:36
outflow of currency due to the movement of00:35:39
individuals across borders will00:35:41
amount to 60 billion per year, now00:35:43
the issue will essentially be suppressed00:35:46
accordingly, and thus the outstanding00:35:49
capital was, we all the time said there are00:35:51
tens of billions of dollars and we end up and00:35:54
they snapped it up too, it was quite large,00:35:55
I think an hour for a month, that is, in this00:35:58
case, there is an increase in the supply of currency00:36:01
because before, in fact, you00:36:02
could put it on your accounts, you just00:36:05
received export proceeds, you often00:36:07
have to sell now, maybe00:36:08
the standards will be reduced one way or another00:36:10
anyway this is a large volume that we00:36:12
carried out until the mid-early 2000s, in00:36:15
fact, so this is what happened in the00:36:18
answer, very radically, he realized that the00:36:20
reserve and start was stuffy if00:36:22
a little perry structured the system for00:36:24
selling and buying pens at the rate that00:36:28
is, it is very good there and the makings are00:36:30
absolutely correct, which could have been00:36:32
done there a long time ago and not have such00:36:34
reserves that were fortunately lost,00:36:37
but in the current situation everything was done00:36:40
that was possible and even more so00:36:43
for the Ministry of Finance, I am very glad that he00:36:45
stood clearly against strongly knives for me00:36:48
would not be a day to pay about anyone because the00:36:50
challenge would be huge [ __ ] photos00:36:53
with a bunch of lawsuits against Russia under the00:36:55
property tag and arrests of00:36:57
property there and so on, that is, in this00:36:59
case, finance in acoustics now. what00:37:01
we are around will be able to continue the00:37:04
action in the same way, of course it depends, it00:37:06
no longer stomps on it because it has so far00:37:09
reacted only to an external factor,00:37:12
part of the financial properties what is its00:37:14
name I economic there will be equal to the00:37:16
increase in the restaurant the enterprise will00:37:19
carry out let's say and debts visit00:37:22
vacations of00:37:23
this city mortgage company which would be00:37:26
very useful can he00:37:29
lead the central bank quite a00:37:32
serious interrogation mission there 45700:37:34
courtiers city without promotion France00:37:37
seriously and so on these are big questions00:37:38
but but the case of drinking not a lot of problems00:37:40
will become a lot of problems but the first answer00:37:43
was very glad and why We now need to replenish so much00:37:46
currency that we have00:37:48
frozen abroad,00:37:50
well, say that it is from the company, but00:37:53
it’s us and say that our exports00:37:56
exceed imports, that is, we have an influx of00:37:58
currency now, yes, and we00:38:00
will have something to do with it in such quantities00:38:03
we will accumulate and spend on00:38:05
something for which in general why do we need a00:38:08
strong ruble now? Well, I think so00:38:10
absolutely, of course, from the point of view of a very00:38:11
simple man in the street, since the00:38:13
state’s obligations are in rubles, but00:38:15
make a dollar there for 300 rubles, sell00:38:18
100 dollars, pay everyone’s pensions, but not00:38:20
100 dollars, of course, pay them pensions,00:38:22
we are all talking about what is about to happen ru closer to00:38:24
closing the ruble in obligations to00:38:26
increase even more, add00:38:28
payments to pensioners there for low-income children of families00:38:32
with many children, well, it also seems easier to00:38:35
do not so it is impossible to look and00:38:38
in this case here you00:38:40
you say correctly that the strengthening of the ruble is not really00:38:42
necessary, here we must understand that00:38:44
again the same financial ones operate within the00:38:46
framework of the restrictions that exist for00:38:48
real children on a low level and that00:38:50
exist because Asia, yes they do, you00:38:54
value ex-our leaders in order to bring down the00:38:57
exchange rate that was then fluctuating there00:38:59
virtual level stop this they will not00:39:01
return it to the reverse value of the coin I00:39:03
will do an hour they of course will reflect00:39:05
this system I will not reduce the volume of00:39:08
sales of foreign exchange earnings in order for00:39:09
supply and demand to be issued they of00:39:12
course will strive to slightly00:39:13
increase the exchange rate lower the exchange rate of the ruble that00:39:15
is, two hundred will be up to 88 5 maybe00:39:18
just because you fail00:39:21
the righteous comes. changing, we in00:39:24
the government receive fewer rubles and00:39:26
thus the possibility of00:39:28
social and other choices is limited, but at the same time,00:39:31
no one will introduce a rate of00:39:34
301 for the reason that imports still00:39:37
remain, which means that at the end of00:39:40
last year it amounted to about 26000:39:42
billion dollars and it diverges throughout the00:39:45
economy and naturally the increase in its00:39:47
cost increases the prices of imported goods,00:39:50
it provokes inflation along the entire chain, which is00:39:51
why prices actually jumped up00:39:54
very much in the first days of the war because00:39:56
many importers immediately00:39:59
included 140 to 160 in import prices for the center00:40:02
supplying bushes and00:40:05
naturally this call rises sharply00:40:07
all sorts of future their troubles00:40:09
have already been included in the prices Sich of course yes of course00:40:11
that is, there was a case we rakat00:40:14
written when00:40:15
suppliers of goods trying to conclude a00:40:18
deal with00:40:19
given counterparties they received00:40:23
answers there the price is such and such indeed00:40:24
there within a few hours even before00:40:27
then maybe letters this00:40:28
instability has greatly affected00:40:30
prices; they take off much more easily than they00:40:33
then fall, and thus, as it were,00:40:36
this is an attempt to return the course back; it was00:40:39
largely caused, first of all, by00:40:41
the desire to prevent00:40:43
this imported infection, so I00:40:45
think that even the bush today00:40:48
seems quite risky00:40:51
because then it’s for the next00:40:53
leader even additionally there after00:40:54
fifteen to twenty00:40:56
they set the family, we think that it’s00:40:59
only going to get worse, so if today00:41:01
the pastiness is then 120, then00:41:02
put it absolutely poet and in this00:41:05
case, indeed, the expectation will be00:41:07
exactly like that then now knock them down00:41:09
waiting for the exchange rate to rise was absolutely00:41:11
fundamental in order to at least00:41:13
somehow then operate and00:41:15
try to ignore you, this is right00:41:18
up, that is, the economy is there for and00:41:19
psychological aspects are involved, then of00:41:22
course canaris is on the road, it’s just that they are00:41:25
absolutely connected and in recent years,00:41:27
especially when it’s not possible to pull it off but to00:41:29
heal it with a fund and the investment prospects for the00:41:31
psychological effects are, of course, very00:41:34
facts, the higher the value we participate, I’ve00:41:37
done everything right, there will be00:41:39
some relaxations, I think that we00:41:41
will return to a00:41:43
relatively liberal this new product,00:41:45
maybe the end of the year, but again, taking into account the00:41:48
new series and the volume of imports and the volume of00:41:52
travel from citizens for milestone and a general00:41:55
decrease in the consumption of goods and donated goods,00:41:57
you know, I think that this will already be00:42:00
equal to an eternally somewhat new level, and00:42:02
still this hydra implementation that00:42:04
began so briskly here, it will of course00:42:07
continue, unconditionally delicious00:42:10
Soviet economy Iletsk 1 pf heart with00:42:13
which when of course it will continue00:42:15
listen to what's going on in our00:42:17
stock market, at some point you00:42:18
missed it, they also talked about stock prices,00:42:21
then they didn't trade for a very long time, they00:42:24
already refused you a big one, for which they00:42:26
began to trade, then something began to be traded in00:42:28
what's next, such terminology in00:42:30
which it’s just not at all like that anymore, he’s still00:42:32
alive in general, we still have this stock market,00:42:34
there are company shares, is00:42:36
anyone interested now, is it relevant, does it have any00:42:38
significance at all,00:42:41
but I think that you are mega noticed much more than00:42:44
before he is relatively alive00:42:46
because he actually operates there but00:42:49
now the incompatibility of the normal00:42:51
functioning of the basis of the decoction, firstly,00:42:55
this is a coherent speech, good sales, in fact,00:42:59
if previously they could buy Gazprom shares in the morning00:43:03
in the evening, force the delivery to be00:43:06
announced, a good result from the companies00:43:08
and and about days of income, then 5 percent00:43:10
and vice versa is often impossible to do00:43:13
now in fact, there is a limitation on00:43:14
the period of ownership which is insignificant for stock00:43:17
speculation, or that is,00:43:20
bought and wait a month conditionally, that is, this00:43:23
seriously reduces the interest in00:43:26
speculation on the other hand, we see00:43:29
that before we did not do much for the station00:43:33
because there were huge sales volumes and00:43:35
in Russia by foreigners and there were quotes of00:43:38
Russian shares on foreign exchanges00:43:40
that were always called so that00:43:42
power in Russia now trading on foreign00:43:45
markets is closed Russian companies are now00:43:48
making their motto actually timber is located00:43:50
this is the second moment this winter is coming back of00:43:53
course that when cb victory is the00:43:58
first There was no decision on00:44:00
financial stabilization back at the end of February.00:44:02
One of the decisions was also before October 1.00:44:05
Banks and financial companies with00:44:07
Russian shares on their balance sheets may not00:44:09
overestimate the value, taking this00:44:12
value as existing in the00:44:15
22nd twenty-first century and, accordingly,00:44:18
this situation is no one interested in00:44:21
sales fathers are married and even if it00:44:24
seems to you that the taxes dancing are complicated,00:44:27
it costs much less, it still00:44:29
looks like she is afraid at the same price00:44:31
porsche bansko by force to that the assets are all00:44:34
secured that their own type is00:44:36
large enough and so on and therefore00:44:38
to sell or now there is no space that is, is there any00:44:41
responsibility here, too,00:44:43
no one wants an insan, they don’t file them at all,00:44:45
and this again00:44:49
formally keeps the market from falling, although the volume of00:44:53
operations there has decreased the messages of the cross00:44:56
several times, we sounded00:44:59
10 times more, but now I think I’m not looking there00:45:01
they imprisoned me and got 7 times less than00:45:05
it was before the cross. In principle, this00:45:06
market is not alive in the sense that now it is00:45:12
impossible to attract money from it for some projects.00:45:14
Naturally, we had it in the 20th year after it00:45:18
seemed that it had been overcome00:45:21
polemical very strong growth of the hour of00:45:24
individuals and citizens who pro and00:45:26
on the stock exchange opened it I invested00:45:28
millions just walked through the forest of investors00:45:32
in my opinion it was00:45:34
already clear to us now that these people are a figure of00:45:38
losses so most likely they may00:45:41
not be able to get out of these characters00:45:42
but and it is also impossible to attract additional ones there,00:45:45
now the field of the00:45:47
Moscow Exchange itself is discussing very00:45:48
powerful sanctions, so I think that in00:45:51
general this is an area that, but this is something that can be00:45:55
forgotten until the 0th case, it will not00:45:58
actively present the principles of life00:46:01
until exactly the next year, which is also how00:46:04
it is not quite a market economy,00:46:06
absolutely, that is, in this case, it’s not a00:46:08
very successful economy, and once again00:46:11
I said that being in a situation of such00:46:13
extraordinary logical trance is00:46:15
new and it is clear that financial growth is00:46:18
not taking any kind of tess, we are00:46:21
in solidarity no, and because this is war00:46:23
communism, sorry, completely different yes, not00:46:26
war communism, there are no other00:46:28
confiscations, all no, negative00:46:31
property, not yet until the00:46:33
imperative work of everything00:46:35
else, that is, it’s not exactly the same, but00:46:38
it’s a nightmare, of course, yes, it’s really gorgeous,00:46:40
of course, they include a ceramic sanda,00:46:42
which will become clear and you want the appearance, but00:46:46
I would say that it will come out through God,00:46:50
you can’t do without the topic of China, but00:46:53
because once it all began, the grill,00:46:55
well, with Europe, America, the00:46:57
Anglo-Saxons, everything is clear with them, they are our00:46:59
enemies, maybe China and Andy won’t00:47:01
abandon us at the end of these two months,00:47:04
although It’s clear that after all, it’s not such a00:47:06
long period of time, somehow we can assess00:47:10
what position in the economic sense00:47:12
China now occupies in00:47:13
relation to Russia, sanctions on trade00:47:16
have increased, something has already decreased, something00:47:19
has changed, so somehow we can do this00:47:21
now using an example volume trade00:47:25
has sharply decreased terror by 1 frag, then00:47:28
if we say the volume of imports from00:47:30
China is more than 50 percent, and this is00:47:33
quite understandable because look what00:47:37
we imported from China, we carried00:47:40
first of all00:47:41
and tonic00:47:43
computer equipment, and we00:47:46
understand perfectly well that in00:47:50
most cases they came supplies of00:47:53
Western equipment and green China00:47:55
Canon Sony the same thing on00:48:00
the phone is going to China go what00:48:04
imports from China are in the bottom of California and00:48:08
it is natural that all these goods were00:48:10
supplied unconditionally because00:48:12
collabs are a decision of the corporations themselves00:48:16
because the Chinese in this case act without00:48:18
God, but it is in China it means that the amount of00:48:21
added value is now00:48:23
being stopped,00:48:25
respectively, the Chinese probe red white for00:48:28
us oil and gas but will not increase the volume of00:48:31
purchases, that is, in this case, as if the00:48:33
business that went there will go,00:48:35
the Chinese formally oppose the00:48:37
sanctions, but at the same time allowing the00:48:39
financial sector to comply quite strictly00:48:41
that is, Chinese banks00:48:44
stopped lending to Russian00:48:45
companies state-owned company sanctions even to00:48:49
say prepayment for supplies00:48:52
they stopped00:48:55
very seriously the00:48:58
Russian-Chinese bank has deteriorated from here and finally we00:49:01
all remember that the Chinese refused00:49:04
to coordinate the issue of the card and I’ll go with gel00:49:07
in practice so that through this system we’ll go and deliver the00:49:10
goods are set up for sanctioned banks,00:49:13
that is, in fact, what we are talking about is00:49:15
that the Chinese here are extremely00:49:19
careful, they perfectly understand the00:49:20
Russian ones, which is no less important for the00:49:23
American ones, they understand perfectly well that00:49:24
again you are like Europeans, they are more00:49:27
dependent on Russia for Russian exports,00:49:30
and I can say which depends because00:49:33
if we look at the European flies00:49:36
at 44 percent00:49:37
and its consumption came from one00:49:40
of Russia in China, the indicators are much00:49:43
lower than China's for oil and Russia's wealth00:49:46
is about 13 15 percent of00:49:48
imports and00:49:50
in this case for mandrel oil it has00:49:53
first place in a dream, the sauce for the show is00:49:57
far from the first place, but in any case,00:49:59
China, just in contrast to its roots,00:50:01
did, but its supply of00:50:04
resources to the faucet was diversified and managed to00:50:06
play as a supplier of voltage and the tsarist,00:50:09
that is, in this case, go for gas and00:50:13
lifelong gas, that is, in In the case of China,00:50:16
I think we will not have serious00:50:18
disagreements and00:50:20
contradictions, but what kind of salvation are you00:50:23
coming from there to begin with00:50:25
never seemed realistic to me now,00:50:27
apparently it may be worth more00:50:30
experienced well, not that is, China00:50:32
will be politically neutral but at the same time00:50:35
economically it will be very good to consider00:50:37
that it is profitable for him, that it is not profitable for him and00:50:38
just printing he will not even be00:50:41
it, he will download dare on the00:50:42
Russian side, wash up vote00:50:45
on the draft of the Russian Federation in favor of00:50:47
Russia, he will abstain wherever you00:50:51
want, I will find colors, he will constantly00:50:53
repeat that I don’t accept unilateral00:50:56
sanctions from Western countries, that this is00:50:58
more rhetorical in all quantities, our00:51:01
policy is this one one at a time and the00:51:03
track from it comes from the military sphere,00:51:05
so here he will be in our country,00:51:08
not even that, but Mikhalkov’s day off will be00:51:10
guitars, he will withstand some kind of00:51:13
neutral this position is given, but look,00:51:15
Chinese planes are still00:51:18
flying over thousands, let’s say European00:51:20
microsd is not the same for the police, this00:51:22
position in general is quite00:51:25
positive for the Russian scammer, they don’t00:51:27
deprive us00:51:29
for the flight, but in any case, some kind of00:51:33
increased00:51:34
cooperation and replacement of falling00:51:37
suppliers there’s definitely no need to run around there, but00:51:40
this is the last question that you and I00:51:42
will have time to discuss with00:51:43
regard to food, perhaps there is00:51:46
already a global food crisis00:51:47
because Russia is00:51:49
the largest supplier of Ukrainian wheat grain, in00:51:52
my opinion in third place there was an00:51:54
hour Ukrainian in general, as I understand it, it’s00:51:57
not at all until the harvest, although there in00:51:59
the territories not occupied by hostilities,00:52:02
some kind of work is still going on, to what00:52:04
extent are these such terrible00:52:07
forecasts for the near future that00:52:09
Africa will starve, that the Middle East will starve,00:52:11
that all this will completely turn the00:52:14
world economy upside down, and so on, to what extent,00:52:15
from your point of view, the dystrophies are justified,00:52:18
in part, this is correct to say that there00:52:21
will be starvation, oh, these deities on the tower,00:52:23
someone, that is, in this case, we must00:52:25
understand that the volume of production of an empty00:52:27
seedling or volumetric sports is not a very00:52:30
big difference because it00:52:33
covers exports to kill, but we will have about q1000:52:36
percent of world production and the00:52:38
same in Europe if it is only tanto and00:52:41
even China you provide for yourself completely00:52:43
and understand by choosing those countries that00:52:46
cannot organize the production of00:52:49
these particular crops and even then first of all the00:52:50
Middle East and Africa is it possible00:52:52
some poorer countries in Asia but even00:52:55
this can cause serious problems for them00:52:57
especially since, again, we00:52:59
know the 16th fatherland is not stable, we00:53:02
remember how the rise in food prices and Chris00:53:04
Sky is one of the factors that00:53:05
contributes and00:53:07
this situation remains a spare one, but this is00:53:10
not a global financial if not a global00:53:12
food supply, I think that yes, here is what is00:53:14
being done to smell everyday life bit00:53:16
lighthouses were hanging out to increase supplies to00:53:19
my Polina, please program it and through00:53:21
other channels in these countries, but there are prices that00:53:24
have risen, a fact and this was one of the important00:53:27
arguments in favor of rising prices, they will not00:53:30
fall in the near future, tense will be00:53:32
supported, but this is again for her and00:53:34
anal problems diet and we direct, but00:53:37
we still lose something on this and -00:53:40
Ukraine is Ukraine by itself, but if we have00:53:42
Ukraine separately horny and godfather, and this is00:53:44
hardly a feature and because the scene that is, in00:53:47
this case, if we have less goods as a product,00:53:49
but it is more expensive, so it doesn’t matter due to00:53:51
this, somehow question why the sword was00:53:54
reducing exports, we have a similar00:53:56
harvest this year, we didn’t know yet whether it would00:53:57
become that is, you even started looking at00:54:00
this year’s harvest, it’s absolutely ours about00:54:02
this possibility, maybe the00:54:03
government will ban some volumes00:54:06
asked about this just and said for00:54:08
what they were about to just talk that00:54:11
maybe it would just be a beautiful thread to00:54:12
support foreign markets, perhaps, but in00:54:15
this case it’s again not related00:54:17
to our decisions, if we want, well,00:54:21
then take the appropriate steps because00:54:25
that the government and everything will buy back the00:54:26
reserve pain at low prices, but now in00:54:30
this case it seems to me that the problem is solvable,00:54:32
it is just like a rhythmic00:54:35
problem, the00:54:36
average flow of labor is also a00:54:38
food problem, this is the first problem and the00:54:40
anal topic in the second, in any case it00:54:43
can somehow be decided00:54:46
if00:54:49
the governments of the Celsius countries are interested in its00:54:51
implementation, I think that the IMF can pass through00:54:54
giving them hits in clear purchases and so00:54:57
on, it again depends on the00:54:59
interaction of these states and00:55:02
you are their financial institutions, I00:55:04
thank you, Satan Zemtsev00:55:06
economist was on our live broadcast00:55:08
nails but I really want to remind you that00:55:11
in 2100 we will have plus status and00:55:14
he will be talking with Maxim Kurnik not00:55:16
Ekaterina Shulman she is on vacation for a week00:55:19
Alexey is still no one in whom00:55:22
we remind the authorities of the Russian00:55:23
Federation consider him a foreign agent but00:55:25
I thank you and thank ours I00:55:27
'm happy with my interlocutor thoughDescription:
Сегодня в прямом эфире своё Особое мнение выскажет экономист Владислав Иноземцев. Ведущий: Антон Орех. Подписывайтесь на Антона Ореха в Телеграме: https://t.me/orex62 🔔 Последние новости и анонсы программ с YouTube-канала «Живой гвоздь», а также контент от наших постоянных гостей и экспертов на официальном телеграм-канале: https://t.me/livegvozd Подписаться на Youtube-канал Дилетант: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCuIE7-5QzeAR6EdZXwDRwuQ?sub_confirmation=1 📌 Живой гвоздь в аудиоформате: SoundCloud: https://soundcloud.com/user-524451485 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4c85mLayKb5oPlpXptWQ5y Яндекс.Музыка: https://clck.ru/ehYPh Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/%D0%B6%D0%B8%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%B9-%D0%B3%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%B7%D0%B4%D1%8C/id1616175210 Google Подкасты: https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkcy5zb3VuZGNsb3VkLmNvbS91c2Vycy9zb3VuZGNsb3VkOnVzZXJzOjEwOTk2NzA5MDUvc291bmRzLnJzcw?sa=X&ved=0CAIQ4aUDahcKEwigxO3Eweb2AhUAAAAAHQAAAAAQEQ Магазин "Дилетант": https://diletant.shop/
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