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⚡️ БИТВА за ХЕРСОН! Началось! ВСУ идут! ХИТРЫЙ план... САМУСЬ: Вторжение из Беларуси НЕИЗБЕЖНО!

⚡️ БИТВА за ХЕРСОН! Началось! ВСУ идут! ХИТРЫЙ план... САМУСЬ: Вторжение из Беларуси НЕИЗБЕЖНО!

Channel: Politeka Online

путин ПРИКАЗАЛ УНИЧТОЖАТЬ порты ОДЕССЫ! Эрдоган ВСТУПИТ в войну! БОРТНИК: Киссинджер в Китае

путин ПРИКАЗАЛ УНИЧТОЖАТЬ порты ОДЕССЫ! Эрдоган ВСТУПИТ в войну! БОРТНИК: Киссинджер в Китае

Channel: Politeka Online

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00:00:02

the camera, I welcome you, good evening,

00:00:07

Ilya, well, now we're all waiting for what will happen

00:00:12

to Belarus and whether the anal war will start from

00:00:16

Ukraine, which is already open, do you think

00:00:19

we can somehow look into the future and

00:00:22

what the consequences will be of any of

00:00:24

Lukashenko’s decisions,

00:00:27

well, I won’t, the future is here, here

00:00:31

you can, as in that joke, the dates are 50

00:00:33

percent that Tuesday,

00:00:36

since this is one of those questions where, well,

00:00:40

I wouldn’t take it on because I can

00:00:43

describe the factors that can influence

00:00:45

Lukashenko’s decision, so we’ve already talked a lot

00:00:48

in principle

00:00:50

Yes, what will work there at what point, but it

00:00:54

depends on the very

00:00:58

subjective question in general, and there is

00:01:00

Lukashenka’s mood, that

00:01:03

is, of course, I can say

00:01:06

that he will continue to try to

00:01:08

balance and try to meander as long

00:01:12

as he can until he is pinned down against

00:01:14

the wall and until

00:01:16

[music]

00:01:18

Russia begins to put pressure on him very

00:01:21

seriously, so well, it’s difficult for me to assess the

00:01:25

likelihood of

00:01:26

an invasion since I don’t know the

00:01:29

degree of pressure on him at the moment,

00:01:31

who we are now can only be assessed

00:01:35

based on what we see there based on

00:01:36

what - a gesture like the departure of an ambassador

00:01:39

or something or some other

00:01:42

thing or something of a ritual

00:01:45

nature in principle, but

00:01:47

well, I don’t know,

00:01:50

of course, for him and for his political

00:01:55

survival, for the stability of his

00:01:57

political

00:01:58

political vertical that he

00:02:00

has built and is trying to hold on with all our

00:02:02

might after the crisis of the twentieth year,

00:02:05

of course it would be better not to invade

00:02:07

because otherwise it will happen. not

00:02:10

returning after which he cannot, so to

00:02:15

speak, not wash himself off in all

00:02:17

respects, that word is politically and

00:02:19

morally

00:02:20

from the point of view of responsibility to his

00:02:23

own people because this is a

00:02:24

serious decision and it will ruin

00:02:27

relations between Belarusians and Ukrainians

00:02:29

for a long time, no matter who says it,

00:02:33

therefore, well, he will divide by in essence,

00:02:36

responsibility with Russia for everything that is

00:02:38

happening, what is happening now, what

00:02:40

will happen, what in general is the very

00:02:43

problematic one, so well, but again,

00:02:47

if we rationalize it from the point of view of

00:02:50

his personal interests and interests, but

00:02:53

such,

00:02:54

let’s say, the political situation in

00:02:56

which Belarus finds itself, what will

00:02:58

prevail there in the end does

00:03:00

not I know,

00:03:03

let's talk about more rational

00:03:06

rulers and in countries like China,

00:03:09

for example, there is such a difference from the fact

00:03:13

that China will support the

00:03:15

Russian Federation and will give them money and

00:03:19

weapons to the fact that China

00:03:22

now has a great opportunity

00:03:23

to agree with the United States of

00:03:25

America to divide the worlds and forget altogether

00:03:28

about everything and Jason to do Jay tube

00:03:33

no, well, yes, this is what China essentially

00:03:36

proposed to the states in a telephone conversation

00:03:37

with Biden, but recently they are offering it,

00:03:40

just this telephone conversation

00:03:43

was the last

00:03:45

attempt, the last last attempt into

00:03:48

our planet, they will still try to

00:03:50

do this and one of the last demonstrations of

00:03:53

this, in principle, the desire has already been

00:03:55

publicly voiced by Beijing, it

00:03:59

seems to me that there are more questions about the position of the headquarters

00:04:02

because China China the opposition has

00:04:04

consistently not changed for many years

00:04:07

and the war in Ukraine and has not changed

00:04:10

they somewhere started more harshly there

00:04:13

somewhere they started to speak out more

00:04:15

openly, already talking about it like

00:04:17

now, for example, here’s the whole situation in

00:04:19

Ukraine, they really started already quite

00:04:22

well, exactly like in Chinese, although

00:04:27

it’s still a very vague phrase and it’s

00:04:29

very difficult to analyze everything, but even

00:04:32

for them it’s very specific things

00:04:34

that they

00:04:36

say when he comments on the situation in

00:04:38

Ukraine,

00:04:39

when he comments on

00:04:43

Russian-Western relations there too,

00:04:46

I have more

00:04:48

unknown questions about the states than about China

00:04:51

because in the states, judging because I see, they

00:04:54

cannot decide what is best for them, that is, they have

00:04:57

there is an assumption that China

00:05:00

will remain the main threat to the

00:05:03

states for the next

00:05:06

decade, this is undeniable, and China is

00:05:09

also being considered by Washington and, in general,

00:05:11

no one is going to give this up; they have

00:05:12

already realized that this will be for a long time;

00:05:15

they will oppose each other for some

00:05:17

time. was during the Cold

00:05:19

War period, the only question is what methods of confrontation to choose,

00:05:24

how to divide this confrontation into

00:05:27

stages,

00:05:28

that is, is there and is there any place for a

00:05:32

stage to be a temporary temporary

00:05:36

pause, will they be reproduced here and

00:05:39

there, the thaw familiar to us from the last century,

00:05:43

this is how it is there were before and all sorts of

00:05:46

resets and so on, this is what the

00:05:50

intensity of this confrontation is about, its

00:05:52

geographical scope and the role of individual

00:05:55

states such as Russia, Ukraine,

00:05:59

European states, and

00:06:02

in the last telephone conversation between

00:06:04

Biden and we are sitting pin, the latter, in principle,

00:06:10

suggested that they take just this

00:06:13

operational pause and

00:06:16

proposed to begin to form a new

00:06:19

security architecture in Europe, in

00:06:22

particular in the world, accordingly, already on

00:06:24

such a broader understanding, that

00:06:26

is, when the Chinese say that

00:06:29

we need to put an end to the Cold

00:06:31

War mentality and no longer form blocs they

00:06:34

criticize, criticizing at the same time they

00:06:37

They mean that it is necessary to essentially abandon the

00:06:39

dominant role of NATO and the United States in the

00:06:42

Euro-Atlantic, well, in the Euro-Atlantic,

00:06:44

this security system, which in

00:06:46

their opinion is now collapsing, including as a

00:06:49

result of Russia’s war against Ukraine, and

00:06:51

in its place create something new, something

00:06:54

where Europeans will be where will the Americans be

00:06:58

where will the Russians be, too, even though they have rights,

00:07:01

well, judging because I read on the rights of

00:07:04

such a more of course a secondary

00:07:06

state, but there is no one who they are,

00:07:09

thus Moscow thought of itself considering

00:07:11

what is happening now and where the Chinese will be

00:07:14

and maybe other

00:07:15

representatives of others non-Western countries

00:07:17

that also want to play an active role

00:07:19

in world affairs but could not because

00:07:22

the system created after the Second World War

00:07:25

after 91 served the interests of

00:07:28

mainly Western countries, of course, the son of the

00:07:30

collective West is the states of North

00:07:33

America, the European Union, NATO countries,

00:07:35

Japan there, and well, that is, Asian

00:07:39

allies to the states here in the states in the

00:07:42

United States, I

00:07:44

don’t see a clear answer to this yet, that is, they even

00:07:46

yesterday when the Chinese immediately immediately

00:07:48

launched a

00:07:50

reaction of comments in connection with the phone

00:07:53

call, I waited for the Americans for about another

00:07:56

hour and an hour and a half before they

00:07:58

started you there published that Ari

00:08:03

Biden Jen Psaki came out with her

00:08:06

traditional comments and so on

00:08:08

reactions to and they took such an

00:08:12

incomprehensible position, for me

00:08:14

it seems to me that it’s one of two things: either

00:08:17

they haven’t made a decision yet, they want to

00:08:19

stall for time, or inside Washington

00:08:22

it’s still There is no agreement

00:08:25

within the administration between different

00:08:27

people about what exactly

00:08:29

we should do in this situation: accept

00:08:31

China’s proposal and thus

00:08:33

enter into agreements with it, which means it

00:08:35

will be necessary to somehow take into account its interests,

00:08:37

including in the situation with Russia and

00:08:39

Ukraine, maybe be included in his list of

00:08:41

potential guarantors who will be

00:08:44

indicated, for example, in the new one, then write 2 I don’t

00:08:48

know how this will be the date that the

00:08:49

neutral status of Ukraine

00:08:51

under some kind of guarantees is now being discussed, so far we

00:08:53

have heard that among the guarantors there should be

00:08:55

the USA, Britain, Turkey, that is, other

00:08:58

Asian countries youtube there wasn’t, although China could be the

00:09:01

obvious first candidate or not

00:09:03

accept China’s offer and continue

00:09:06

escalation because now everything

00:09:08

is moving into a ditch in the logic of escalation,

00:09:11

all together with the war in Ukraine, leave everything

00:09:16

else, essentially a regional world

00:09:20

security system, it is essentially

00:09:23

moving in such a logic of confrontation

00:09:26

and for the states this is also an acceptable option

00:09:30

because they understand that now there is a

00:09:32

unique chance to bring China under

00:09:34

some kind of sanctions and restrictions and

00:09:36

begin to put even more pressure on it, with some of their

00:09:39

own stuffing, so they threw out this

00:09:42

information that supposedly China is ready to

00:09:44

provide military help from Russia

00:09:46

immediately the Chinese stock markets

00:09:48

suffered

00:09:49

some Chinese companies, well, as the

00:09:52

American media wrote, of course I don’t

00:09:54

know whether it’s true or not, they could have

00:09:55

lost this trillion dollars,

00:09:57

especially technological ones on all of these, the

00:09:59

fall in shares is an opportunity for them,

00:10:02

including increasing pressure

00:10:05

to China, but of course there is tightness and

00:10:08

there are supporters of both this option and

00:10:10

this option since both options are

00:10:12

associated with risks from the sand with

00:10:14

all sorts of buns, I think that we are

00:10:18

on this call, it was very important, but we have

00:10:21

not yet received answers on how this will

00:10:24

all happen, that is, I think we need to wait,

00:10:25

and based on some other movement of the

00:10:29

two countries it will be clear what they

00:10:31

finally came to

00:10:33

as a reward to recognize the relationship with Ukraine,

00:10:37

but there was no anger here, I don’t understand, that

00:10:40

is, nothing of any kind beyond that

00:10:42

nothing fantastic for us, but also to say

00:10:45

that something terrible happened or

00:10:47

someone leaked us somewhere no yes,

00:10:51

definitely probably for those who think

00:10:53

that we are now, well, like the navel of the earth due to the fact

00:10:57

that all the attention is focused on us

00:10:59

com certainly attracted attention, but for

00:11:03

those who think that this is somehow now

00:11:04

suddenly increasing our political

00:11:07

independence,

00:11:08

well, they may be upset because no, that

00:11:11

is, anyway, he already sees, anyway,

00:11:13

the situation is such that the players decide externally

00:11:15

among themselves, that is, we, we depend on the

00:11:18

Chinese American agenda and there’s

00:11:20

no getting away from it, well, I don’t

00:11:23

see this as a gateway and what’s scary is

00:11:25

what it really looks like,

00:11:27

international politics, that is, for me

00:11:28

and for me, and here there are a lot of options

00:11:30

for Ukraine, how can we take advantage of this

00:11:32

because for example, in principle, if it

00:11:37

seems to me, I believe that if that, the

00:11:40

more different guarantors there are that

00:11:43

can guarantee us something, at least

00:11:45

at some basic level, security

00:11:47

in combination with a neutral status, by

00:11:51

which I understand that it will be necessary to

00:11:53

adjust foreign policy under a

00:11:54

pragmatic vector leg, but I think

00:11:57

this is a good option for us to

00:11:59

regroup, rebuild,

00:12:01

recover, strengthen, including this does

00:12:05

not mean that all our problems will go away,

00:12:06

well, that is, because again, we have

00:12:09

a nose again now, as if under

00:12:12

martial law, this is always the case for us as

00:12:16

if thinking is the first victim of the truth and

00:12:19

thinking is the first victim, but in such a

00:12:22

state when now, well, it’s difficult to think,

00:12:25

it’s difficult to analyze there freely,

00:12:26

especially there, well, in terms of now,

00:12:28

this one, especially now, is one question and

00:12:30

no one wants to deal with now, there are questions

00:12:31

here and now that are needed urgently

00:12:33

solve this correctly, so I see in this

00:12:37

option, well, that is, I see good opportunities for us in

00:12:39

this option,

00:12:40

of course it will all very much

00:12:43

depend, like any option, it

00:12:46

means what we will do after

00:12:49

the war and how, that is, because we

00:12:52

can win the war but lose

00:12:55

after the military, well, that is, among the heap there are

00:12:57

a number of examples of how this happened,

00:13:00

take Syria, now we often

00:13:02

remember it, but in the wrong context, so I

00:13:05

would remember it in that context, how to

00:13:07

study it, this series is an example when that

00:13:10

same Russia helped to essentially turn the

00:13:13

tide of the war, to defeat the government in the war,

00:13:16

but they could not win the post-war

00:13:18

world because they still cannot

00:13:20

get out of this state of military

00:13:23

devastation in which they were driven into,

00:13:25

they drove them, and in general this is a very

00:13:28

big tragedy, it’s scary because there are so many

00:13:31

victims since the eighteenth year, in

00:13:34

fact, there have been no active hostilities on the

00:13:36

territory of Syria, but on such a

00:13:38

scale as there was no

00:13:40

significant progress towards post-

00:13:43

war reconstruction

00:13:45

or restoration or return of

00:13:47

refugees or there the return of internally and

00:13:49

internally displaced persons there wasn’t

00:13:52

so it all depends a lot

00:13:54

on this year what kind of power the quality of

00:13:56

personnel who the cult will do what how

00:13:58

quickly we can organize the option

00:14:01

with neutrality I think can help

00:14:03

us organize prepare for the

00:14:05

next one escalations are possible because

00:14:07

as I said neutrality does not solve the

00:14:09

problem of course

00:14:11

Well, it simply doesn’t solve the Russian threat,

00:14:13

because if this keeps Russia more

00:14:15

and Putin’s vertical in Russia

00:14:18

remains, then count on the fact that

00:14:22

they will suddenly change and then somehow, I don’t

00:14:24

know, they will suddenly wake up and realize

00:14:26

that they were him, but this is not the same thing doesn’t

00:14:28

work like that, then there the ideological

00:14:31

basis is already tailored to the fact that they

00:14:34

need us, but they don’t recognize us as

00:14:36

equal help, as if they were a partner with

00:14:38

whom you can talk,

00:14:39

but this may give us some time to

00:14:42

regroup, or

00:14:46

continue the new war will continue, as it were,

00:14:48

again this is also one

00:14:51

of the options for the development of events, well,

00:14:55

so far everything looks like we are very

00:14:58

much dependent on the external

00:15:00

agenda, that is, what we can influence is,

00:15:02

of course, on the military situation we have here, that is,

00:15:04

what we have us here now,

00:15:06

but these are such

00:15:08

long-term decisions, the so-called,

00:15:11

this is already,

00:15:13

well, most likely it will be decided with

00:15:17

us, with our participation, but not necessarily

00:15:19

only by us, but fortunately,

00:15:22

unfortunately, I don’t know, but this is the

00:15:24

reality any armed

00:15:26

conflicts, should I go over here when we

00:15:29

talk about the edge of

00:15:31

reality, that is, first of all, what

00:15:34

is meant because

00:15:36

it can be like Switzerland to countries with an

00:15:40

incredibly powerful army that, in

00:15:43

principle,

00:15:44

protect the mountains and it doesn’t need anything for that;

00:15:47

there are countries that do not have their

00:15:50

own army has offensive

00:15:54

weapons, what kind of fate the whole world can prepare

00:15:58

for Ukraine, but it’s hard to say because

00:16:01

I watched Mikhail Podlyako’s commentary, here are

00:16:04

different media, he had an interview with

00:16:07

Medusa, he had an interview with a Ukrainian

00:16:09

some Ukrainian publication, there

00:16:11

were some different ones or

00:16:13

publications different emphasis on

00:16:16

what he was saying, I understand, it’s hard for me to

00:16:20

say yet, that is, I had very different

00:16:22

messages, that is, somewhere they almost talked

00:16:24

about Switzerland, somewhere

00:16:26

they remembered Israel somewhere spinal and

00:16:28

Austria as if Finland, well, for now

00:16:32

the difficulty I think is that we just need to

00:16:34

wait, that’s because they said

00:16:36

that the project of no agreements with

00:16:39

Russia is being worked out, this is what I

00:16:41

heard from Podolak that

00:16:44

within a few weeks we will

00:16:45

come out with something and it seems like Medinsky also

00:16:48

said

00:16:49

similar things things, well, that means you have to wait

00:16:52

until they come out with something, then

00:16:54

analyze them based on the fact that

00:16:56

all these conversations are frequent, how can it be that

00:16:58

all countries that have a neutral

00:17:00

status have their own history, no, I wouldn’t

00:17:03

compare Switzerland, after all, before it

00:17:05

got its neutrality, well, you fought,

00:17:08

be healthy, that is, it’s right there, that

00:17:10

’s why

00:17:12

Turkmenistan’s gut went like that, there is

00:17:14

neutrality, we don’t remember this country at all,

00:17:16

and that is, they are really

00:17:17

neutral, and it’s written down in

00:17:20

the constitution, that is, it’s generally a separate

00:17:22

story.

00:17:23

Poison Vietnam, by the way, is a neutral country,

00:17:26

well, they have it too the constitution has

00:17:28

a principle, as it were, the principle of give my, which

00:17:31

writes down foreign policy and they do it

00:17:33

right at the doctrinal level

00:17:35

that they have there somehow 3 no yes it is

00:17:38

no foreign military bases on their

00:17:40

territory no joining one

00:17:42

bloc against others in general and there

00:17:47

is no entry or deployment of

00:17:51

some well, that is, there are

00:17:53

also third states in a similar style, that is,

00:17:54

all this forms their such a neutral

00:17:56

status, also as a variant of the model, you can

00:17:59

study very different everything will depend

00:18:02

on our negotiating position, that is,

00:18:04

what are the conditions we will not be satisfied with what

00:18:07

they will be like, how our negotiators will behave

00:18:08

from the military situation

00:18:12

because realistically, but our capabilities will be

00:18:13

determined by the degree of control over

00:18:16

the situation and the

00:18:19

position of Russia, which has not yet disappeared,

00:18:22

write off Russia, I believe until

00:18:24

the wounds of the volume are weakened one hundred percent of these

00:18:27

this is already happening, yes, of course, but I don’t

00:18:30

think that they will be thrown out completely from the

00:18:32

negotiation process, in the end,

00:18:33

any conflict ends with

00:18:36

negotiations and the signing of any

00:18:38

agreements by the parties to the conflict, there are two

00:18:41

parties to the conflict, Ukraine and Russia, and their

00:18:44

some conditions will also be more likely in

00:18:46

total, they are being adjusted, I myself

00:18:48

don’t fully understand them yet because the evolution of

00:18:51

Russia’s requirement has undergone

00:18:53

serious changes since February 24, from

00:18:55

the beginning they were talking about genocide of the

00:18:57

demilitarization movement, today it’s already

00:18:59

starting to turn both of them into

00:19:02

some interesting things there that

00:19:05

turn out to be to make 11 fications, it’s just

00:19:08

necessary to repeal some laws

00:19:10

in our country, well, that is, it’s better for him not to

00:19:12

start adjusting these

00:19:13

demands from the fact that they see

00:19:16

changes in the situation, including

00:19:17

internationally, and from what kind of

00:19:20

consensus there will be external players

00:19:22

who will also influence what is

00:19:24

offered to us, what I see now is

00:19:27

that everyone agrees, in principle, everyone agrees on

00:19:30

the idea of Ukraine not joining NATO,

00:19:32

that is, the Western one agrees,

00:19:36

they don’t want to take us into NATO,

00:19:37

President Zelinsky is open about it

00:19:39

already said that we were told no,

00:19:41

as I understand it, he was told no, it was

00:19:43

obvious a long time ago

00:19:44

that everyone, in principle, is happy with

00:19:49

the idea that we should be between again

00:19:54

between different centers of power, that is,

00:19:57

the only thing is that, again, I’m

00:20:00

not sure about the position of the United States, but China is

00:20:03

for us openly proposes when they

00:20:05

declare that Ukraine should be a bridge

00:20:07

between the east and the west, and that is, they

00:20:08

essentially propose that we become, that is, not be part of

00:20:11

some kind, not be part of NATO, be part of the Western

00:20:14

bloc and some eastern bloc, be

00:20:16

between that is, take this assumes the

00:20:18

functionality of

00:20:19

connecting two essentially collective

00:20:23

East, conditional collective West,

00:20:25

also conditional, that’s all we

00:20:28

really are, the role that we could play back

00:20:31

in the 90s if we started to

00:20:34

deploy this policy, but we seemed to

00:20:36

go in a different direction and as

00:20:39

I understand it, there is,

00:20:42

again, an end, well, not a consensus, there is a

00:20:46

general understanding, a general

00:20:48

willingness to provide us with some

00:20:51

guarantees, that is, and here the most interesting

00:20:56

question is, and what exactly because in

00:20:59

ninety-four there was already such a

00:21:01

story when everyone signed up for

00:21:03

security guarantees,

00:21:05

but it was a piece of paper that wasn’t very

00:21:07

strong,

00:21:09

you know, I just remember it

00:21:13

was a long time ago, probably about 7 years ago, when

00:21:16

I was in uniform and

00:21:21

Leonid Kuchma spoke there and he said he remembered

00:21:25

how the Budapest memorandum was signed,

00:21:27

he said that the President of France told him the

00:21:30

young man that’s all they will equally deceive

00:21:33

the document is signed,

00:21:39

even at that moment the people

00:21:42

who signed it did not believe how to

00:21:46

control and in general what

00:21:48

mechanisms are there to ensure that

00:21:52

he fulfills any other document, well, I will tell you how

00:21:54

this should be treated, I think our

00:21:56

mistake when signing the Budapest

00:21:58

memorandum, it

00:22:00

seems to me, was that it was not there that we

00:22:03

signed it there, I think that you all

00:22:05

had to sign something, there

00:22:06

was such crazy pressure

00:22:08

that we didn’t have a choice of volume, perhaps

00:22:12

we could have somehow knocked out another

00:22:14

stronger document, and then this is no longer important,

00:22:16

this and this needs to be studied I don’t know, in

00:22:19

those conditions the books were signed in the 90s,

00:22:21

there were completely different conditions, a

00:22:23

completely different worldview among those

00:22:24

people who signed it now, we

00:22:27

already have it like this, this is my post historically, that is,

00:22:30

in essence, we all know

00:22:32

this whole story, we are talking but you see,

00:22:34

if you signed all this

00:22:36

now, it wasn’t those people who didn’t know what

00:22:38

would happen in 20 years, but

00:22:40

those few who predicted it,

00:22:43

but it was a marginal, marginal

00:22:45

idea about Russia annexing

00:22:47

Crimea there, we will fight, it will all turn out and

00:22:49

the West will not will help and the mistake was

00:22:52

that we treated these guarantees

00:22:55

as some kind of

00:22:57

how to say wunderwaffle type and

00:23:01

well, since we have guarantees everything is

00:23:04

fine, we can do what we want

00:23:07

anyway, there are guarantees we can

00:23:08

relax and not engage in defense there,

00:23:10

do not engage in construction effective

00:23:14

state institutions, I should be

00:23:16

engaged in strengthening the economy there and

00:23:18

social institutions for border protection there with

00:23:21

my information policy and

00:23:23

foreign relations, that’s all, and now the

00:23:27

situation is the same, that is, we need to

00:23:29

treat this story with guarantees

00:23:32

not through the prism of Budapest 94, but

00:23:35

through the prism of this

00:23:39

maneuver that is, this will be a maneuver that

00:23:42

will allow us to solve this kind of problem,

00:23:44

in particular the task of gaining time

00:23:47

in order to reorganize

00:23:49

fundamentally to rethink our

00:23:51

policy of the basis of statehood

00:23:54

because now this is exactly what we are talking about, it does

00:23:55

n’t hurt a little a lot, it’s about

00:23:58

breaking

00:23:59

to build an old state system that is

00:24:01

fundamentally new and

00:24:03

time to build it is possible

00:24:06

if, of course, there is enough time for new

00:24:09

alliances externally, taking into account the current

00:24:12

agenda, that is, not again, do not

00:24:14

again build the illusion that now we

00:24:16

will run there again at 5, again

00:24:18

outsource part of ours our

00:24:22

security policy there by some partner in the

00:24:24

west and in the east and north, this

00:24:26

makes no sense at all today, this is not relevant,

00:24:28

moreover, today no one, well, that is,

00:24:31

today in international relations we are

00:24:33

experiencing a crisis of guarantees in general, I

00:24:37

wrote about this back when

00:24:40

new ones began these are the last negotiations between the

00:24:44

USA and Iran on the nuclear program, and here

00:24:47

we are again, this is the next time when the

00:24:51

mouse just didn’t follow

00:24:54

it very closely, but it was worth it because these

00:24:56

negotiations revealed this problem, a

00:24:58

guarantee that in the modern world there are

00:25:04

few countries few countries can and are capable of not

00:25:08

only guaranteeing something on paper, but

00:25:10

also fulfilling it because it is

00:25:12

trivial because not everyone has the

00:25:14

desire, power, resources, to take on

00:25:17

legal obligations to protect

00:25:20

others, that is, this is a unique

00:25:22

case in general, that is which was created

00:25:25

in certain conditions, the conditions of the Cold

00:25:28

War and the Iron Curtain of a real

00:25:30

military threat that hung over everyone,

00:25:31

and that is, there are still questions about it, that

00:25:34

is, here in 1991,

00:25:36

discussions about the crisis have not stopped about

00:25:39

how the alliance is capable of defending itself there.

00:25:41

from not in the same

00:25:43

sense as Russia and you presented that they are

00:25:45

rotting they are not capable of anything they are

00:25:47

capable there are just a lot of disagreements

00:25:50

that came to light after the end of the Cold

00:25:52

War between the already state, it is clear that it is

00:25:54

normal when the common marriage

00:25:56

disappears

00:25:58

we start but as we do, that is, mouse

00:26:01

install apparently we rallied, then

00:26:03

this internal squabble began again on

00:26:05

various issues, now again we

00:26:07

rallied, then again all this is everywhere,

00:26:09

this is he, this is a completely normal process, which is why

00:26:12

we should treat this as a

00:26:15

maneuver, nothing more, that is, which

00:26:17

owes us for some the most

00:26:19

favorable conditions possible to give us

00:26:21

some time, opportunities, resources for

00:26:24

reorganization and perhaps perhaps if

00:26:27

the reorganization is as successful as possible,

00:26:29

we will be able to prevent a new conflict

00:26:32

and Lenovo from the same Russia or

00:26:35

minimize the risks from this conflict

00:26:37

if it happens anyway there is a

00:26:39

conflict with Russia or a conflict

00:26:42

some other one there because, after all,

00:26:44

now we are talking about the fact that the war in

00:26:46

Ukraine is an element of a serious

00:26:49

crisis of Islam in the world order, it is

00:26:51

always accompanied by various crisis

00:26:53

phenomena, therefore, but this is the only way to

00:26:55

treat it, you should not think that there are

00:26:57

guarantees that everything is to take what

00:27:01

maximum position that you either give us all

00:27:03

the guarantees of the world or we do

00:27:05

n’t agree to anything at all, but this is also a

00:27:08

kind of position, we won’t come to anything, that’s why

00:27:11

I think that

00:27:13

guarantees even if they promise us them and

00:27:15

give them even with China with everyone for the rest,

00:27:18

it still won’t be a panacea, it won’t

00:27:20

solve our differences with Russia of an

00:27:21

existential nature, it won’t solve the

00:27:24

security issues that he

00:27:27

will deal with anyway, and

00:27:29

it will just give us determined will create

00:27:32

certain conditions that we

00:27:34

will either take advantage of or not,

00:27:37

I also want to ask powervu from the country

00:27:40

that us they support this strange, let’s

00:27:42

say post-Soviet, and now they

00:27:46

seem ready to vote and

00:27:50

support so that I would close over Ukraine

00:27:52

and in general, but provide us with such

00:27:54

support that we actually

00:27:56

consider correct, they are now players,

00:28:02

well, of course, well,

00:28:04

I’m not all players just yet

00:28:07

Germany France are the green states of

00:28:10

America, in principle, but they still have a

00:28:12

dominant position until they are the head of the

00:28:14

living, all the players are just players of a different

00:28:16

order, as if in this case, for example,

00:28:19

if we are talking about the

00:28:21

European Union, all countries have their own

00:28:24

positions, their positions can be influenced by more

00:28:27

influential players, well so also there

00:28:30

Poland Romania

00:28:32

Baltic countries they are more exposed to the

00:28:34

influence of the British state especially the USA, that

00:28:38

is, they play precisely in the fairway

00:28:39

of Washington, while the Franco-German

00:28:42

tandem street is no longer a tandem today, I think

00:28:45

this story ends, but Germany

00:28:49

France is there separately, and there they are still

00:28:51

trying, that is in this they

00:28:53

disagree with the

00:28:55

United States on many issues, Brittany

00:28:57

generally plays its own game of ladies, autonomous in

00:28:59

some issues, even competes with the

00:29:01

states, for example, regarding increased

00:29:03

influence in the Baltic states, too, that

00:29:06

is, they are all players, they all express

00:29:09

how they are not so common here is

00:29:11

the course set in collaboration with our

00:29:15

strategic partners there, let’s call

00:29:18

them that, well, that is, it’s clear that they don’t

00:29:21

think so, but they don’t think again of course of

00:29:23

their interests first of all, I don’t

00:29:25

believe that they are all now ready

00:29:27

to close the sky almost tomorrow and

00:29:30

shoot down Russian planes to enter into

00:29:32

war, that is, for now these are all words

00:29:34

because if they were ready this

00:29:36

decision would have been made long ago,

00:29:38

not a problem, in fact, what is the point, and

00:29:41

Poland would have long ago handed over the systems to us,

00:29:43

but they didn’t do it they

00:29:46

transported the planes to the Ramstein air base, well, or

00:29:48

rather, they suggested to the states to

00:29:50

do this, but the states refused politely, that

00:29:53

is, a note, therefore, of course, no one has this readiness to fully

00:29:55

enter into a war,

00:29:58

well, again, Comrade I am quite

00:30:00

logical here, no one’s hostility can’t

00:30:02

be overcome no, no one wants to get involved

00:30:04

in a war,

00:30:06

understanding the risks, we are talking about Russia and a

00:30:08

nuclear state that has already threatened

00:30:10

to use nuclear weapons, well, not directly,

00:30:12

Putin spoke to him about this

00:30:15

very much, but about a huge number of not

00:30:20

unknown waters that appear in the

00:30:23

event of, well, the more, again I can,

00:30:26

of course, talk here about I don’t know how this

00:30:27

will happen in the case of Ukraine, but I can look at the

00:30:29

examples that I can look at there

00:30:32

in Syria, if we return to it again,

00:30:34

or Libya, but this is a Middle Eastern

00:30:36

conflict; unfortunately, the Middle

00:30:38

East was a long-suffering region in the

00:30:39

twenty-first century, that is wars most often

00:30:42

took place there,

00:30:44

the more the

00:30:46

conflict is internationalized, different

00:30:48

players are involved, the worse it becomes because,

00:30:52

firstly, the agenda itself becomes

00:30:54

dependent on not just two or three, but a

00:30:57

whole bunch of players who poured

00:31:00

their resources into it and

00:31:01

it begins to become regional

00:31:04

character, that is, it is already beginning

00:31:06

to spill out there into other areas of

00:31:09

other countries and involve more and more

00:31:11

players, and this of course, well,

00:31:13

raises the stakes and this territory in

00:31:16

which this conflict occurs, it

00:31:18

suffers even more, in this case we are talking

00:31:20

about our territory, mainly our

00:31:23

territory There are military operations going on, so

00:31:25

everyone understands the risks associated with the

00:31:27

involvement of the NATO bloc in this war. So far, I do

00:31:37

n’t see them really having such bellicose determination to do all this. It still seems to me that these are

00:31:39

such strong political masses

00:31:42

that they are sending, among other things. through these

00:31:44

decisions of parliament, but the resolutions that are

00:31:46

adopted in parliaments with a call to

00:31:48

close the sky because some of our

00:31:50

media gave it out as if they had

00:31:51

decided to close the sky, well, that’s not how it works, that

00:31:55

is, it’s like resolutions that

00:31:57

call on other countries to close the sky

00:32:00

over Ukraine to declare a no-fly rule zone,

00:32:01

to be more precise, but this is all so far at the

00:32:04

level of decisions and beautiful words,

00:32:08

I thank you very much, let’s be a creamy

00:32:11

situation, what else remains there is our

00:32:14

land of miles, I thank you again, we

00:32:17

were Ilya biting the gender with his goodbye, what are you

00:32:20

like

00:32:21

[music]

Description:

Илия Куса, аналитик-международник, в новом выпуске на #политека_онлайн. Ведущая Инга Мезеря Поделитесь этим видео - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_rlJseOrfQM Вы можете поддержать канал ПОЛИТЕКА, сделав перевод на карту 5168745301518087 (Назначение платежа: пополнение карточки) Все актуальные новости Украины и мира в одном приложении MY.UA: Google Play - https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.myua.news App Stope - https://apps.apple.com/ua/app/my-ua-%D0%BF%D1%80%D0%BE-%D1%83%D0%BA%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%97%D0%BD%D1%83-%D1%82%D0%B0-%D1%81%D0%B2%D1%96%D1%82/id1437521768?l=uk People Life - Интервью со звездами шоу-бизнеса https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCLlUjg4ipS_SgwhLgg0yQRA?sub_confirmation=1 PolitБюро –самые актуальные новости https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCas2_yXFXTsAiYxY4WfenqQ?sub_confirmation=1 Подписывайтесь на наш канал Политека Онлайн, жмите на 🔔 и выбирайте "все уведомления", чтобы не пропустить новые видео https://www.youtube.com/c/PolitekaOnline?sub_confirmation=1 Политека в твиттере https://twitter.com/PolitekaO В студии Politeka Online Илия Куса, эксперт по международной политике аналитического центра Украинский институт будущего .2.2022 Таймкоды: 0:00 В інтерв'ю # # # Мнение гостя не всегда совпадает с нашим, но мы считаем нужным предоставлять зрителям разные точки зрения.

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