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Russian
00:00:02
The Russian Ministry of Defense reports00:00:04
that the Armed Forces are suffering gigantic losses, we are talking00:00:08
about thousands of people, I wouldn’t be surprised if00:00:10
they count ten thousand by the end of the week,00:00:14
they say that Western equipment00:00:17
turned out to be absolutely useless on the00:00:20
front line and are being massively destroyed by00:00:22
Russian troops, that all attacks by the Armed Forces00:00:26
are choke and cannot reach a single00:00:28
one00:00:31
pro-Russian military correspondents explain that in00:00:34
fact the Russian military is fighting00:00:37
to the death, they are not moving from the point at all,00:00:39
the enemy is suffering incredible00:00:43
losses, they, the Russian military are00:00:45
feeling absolutely great, what is00:00:48
happening is that Ukraine’s counter-offensive has00:00:50
failed, it turns out that it’s all over,00:00:54
of course No, of course No, none of this is00:00:57
true00:00:58
Let's try today to figure out00:01:00
what is happening now. Why is it impossible00:01:03
at this stage to00:01:05
evaluate the success of a counter-offensive in any way?00:01:07
What is a counter-offensive in general? from the00:01:20
point of view of objective00:01:22
control data and from the point of view of a general00:01:24
understanding of the processes associated with military00:01:26
operations about all this Today you00:01:29
can support this video by liking it,00:01:31
writing comments, subscribing to the00:01:33
channel, you can support the channel itself on00:01:35
Patreon, the link to it will be in the description00:01:37
Well, or using the super thank you button with a00:01:39
dollar hearts right under the video00:01:40
thanks to your support I can00:01:42
continue my work so for00:01:45
several days now we have seen the intensification of fighting00:01:48
in various directions of the current00:01:51
line of contact we see equipment00:01:54
we see What the Armed Forces are using including00:01:57
Western equipment we see Max Pro we00:01:59
see leopards the most famous tanks00:02:01
We see that there is a serious activation,00:02:03
especially in the Zaporozhye direction, the00:02:05
Ukrainian side, as part of this00:02:08
counter-offensive or its beginning or00:02:11
the preceding stage of the counter-offensive,00:02:14
chose the tactic of radio silence, the Ukrainian00:02:17
side practically does not report on its00:02:20
actions, does not publish video recordings and does not00:02:23
tell what is what, this is a deliberate00:02:26
tactic But that it is00:02:28
aimed at the fact that we do not inform the00:02:30
enemy and our own successes do not00:02:32
inform the enemy about our own00:02:34
failures do not inform the enemy about our00:02:36
own movements because00:02:37
Ukraine faced a very difficult00:02:39
task within the framework of this counter-offensive,00:02:41
judge for yourself perfectly well the whole world knew that00:02:45
Ukraine would counter-offensive This00:02:47
is known to every dog, this has been discussed00:02:50
in recent months. Well, that is,00:02:53
there are no surprise factors because everyone00:02:56
understands perfectly well that Ukraine needs to00:02:58
counter-offensive in order to00:02:59
liberate its territories, moreover,00:03:02
the direction of the counter-offensive is also an00:03:04
open secret, most experts And00:03:07
in general, people who look at the map00:03:08
understand that Zaporozhye the region is00:03:11
partially occupied by Russia will be00:03:13
exactly the point where Ukraine will00:03:16
try to advance; the task of Ukraine is to break through the00:03:19
Russian positions to actually00:03:21
return Melitopol and cut the00:03:24
land corridor to Crimea; the task is00:03:26
clear and not very simple; Russia has been00:03:29
preparing for a counter-offensive from Ukraine all this time;00:03:32
digging trenches; installing00:03:35
fortifications;00:03:37
and given that there are00:03:40
no surprise factors, of course they00:03:43
were able to achieve something. Well, that is, the00:03:45
Russian army is still an army,00:03:46
despite all the madness that we have00:03:49
seen over the past 16 months, people there00:03:51
roughly understand that if you are00:03:53
attacked you must defend yourself. The Russian00:03:56
army recruited troops actually00:03:59
prepared, produced ammunition and00:04:01
produced equipment, repaired00:04:03
equipment, in general, trying in every possible way to00:04:05
avoid the shame that she00:04:07
faced during the retreat from the00:04:09
Kharkov region during the00:04:10
counter-offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Last summer,00:04:13
therefore, this will be a very difficult00:04:17
operation for Ukraine. We talked about this with00:04:19
Ruslan Levi over the past months,00:04:21
telling that you shouldn’t expect that00:04:24
literally in a day the Russian defense00:04:26
will crumble and how everyone will run separately,00:04:29
it’s amusing that the pro-Russian military correspondents, the fact00:04:32
that the Russian army did not run on the00:04:34
first day of active fighting, record00:04:37
some kind of incredible Success, this is how you should00:04:40
represent your own army if00:04:42
you, well, believe in Success you write down the00:04:46
fact that people did not run when they saw Western00:04:49
technology in general yet. At this stage,00:04:56
it is difficult to say that something went bad or good, since00:04:58
the counter-offensive, if it is underway, is in00:05:01
its embryonic stage; in fact,00:05:03
this counter-offensive will last00:05:05
several months until the Autumn. there00:05:09
will be different battles, there will be big battles, there will be small00:05:11
battles, there will be local and global00:05:13
battles, and so far we are seeing only the first00:05:16
stage. But judging by the tensions that we00:05:19
see, including about Russian00:05:21
telegram channels, everything is not going as00:05:23
smoothly as the Russian side00:05:25
would like, but better than they expected what am I00:05:29
talking about? The fact is that I, as a person00:05:31
who monitors the channel, constantly00:05:32
see that they often write about the fact that00:05:36
the battles are very difficult, that the Russian00:05:38
soldier needs to strengthen himself, and even publish00:05:41
some appeals to these Russian00:05:43
soldiers, which is quite strange because00:05:44
if everything goes well for you. Well, if00:05:47
everything goes well for you without any00:05:48
significant loss of problems, then00:05:50
why these strange motivational speeches00:05:52
telling about the fact that you00:05:54
can stand overnight for a day? Well, it doesn’t matter, maybe00:05:56
such a strategy. You’ve probably seen a00:05:58
large number of videos with00:06:01
destroyed Ukrainian equipment00:06:03
including with destroyed leopards Of course,00:06:05
when the first reports had just begun00:06:08
that a counter-offensive had just begun and the00:06:10
Russian General Staff decided to show a video of00:06:13
how it was destroying00:06:14
grain harvesters, literally the Ministry of00:06:17
Defense showed last year’s00:06:19
video of Russian00:06:20
helicopters destroying combines and they say00:06:23
that it destroyed Lapard tanks, this caused00:06:27
outrage even in pro-Russian channels00:06:28
Because people began to00:06:31
wonder who you take us for. Well,00:06:33
that is, wasn’t that exactly what the channel00:06:37
was also writing for because, well, it’s00:06:39
clear to the naked eye that we’re talking about combine harvesters; a00:06:41
separate question is that helicopters00:06:43
attacking agricultural equipment is a00:06:46
war crime, and monstrous00:06:48
But all this will be sorted out later00:06:51
When the court hearings begin,00:06:53
the decision is made by all these war criminals00:06:56
of which there are quite a few in this war on the00:06:58
Russian side. However, later00:07:00
other videos appeared that are00:07:02
indeed with a high degree00:07:04
of probability this is a video of the destruction of00:07:06
Ukrainian equipment, including00:07:08
leopard tanks, and now Opus Magnum00:07:12
of Russian troops and propaganda00:07:16
destruction of the leopard tank this opinion is00:07:19
very clear, I have said this many00:07:21
times that Why is the Russian army making00:07:24
some kind of incredible super weapon out of leopard tanks00:07:26
Why do they pretend that it is I do00:07:30
n’t know what type of walking00:07:32
mechanized robot Leopard tank00:07:34
even in modifications 2.6 to the most00:07:38
modern ones, of which not very many00:07:39
were delivered to Ukraine, it’s still a tank, well, that00:07:43
is, it’s a good means of mechanization with a00:07:46
good control system with00:07:48
additional options. Other than that, it’s00:07:50
still a tank, that is, in war, it’s a consumable;00:07:54
in war, tanks are consumables. It’s00:07:57
not highmores, it’s not there. RZO is not an air defense00:08:01
patriot, these are tanks that should be00:08:04
destroyed, not in the sense that they have such a00:08:06
Task. Ideally, of course, not a tank,00:08:08
nothing else will be destroyed. But this is what is00:08:11
destroyed in the first place because00:08:12
they are leading us three attacks, moreover, in the00:08:16
current war as we have repeatedly00:08:17
said in reports that there are no tank duels.00:08:20
Well, that is, there is no such thing as one tank00:08:22
leaving another Tank and they engage each other00:08:24
in battle. No, we are not00:08:26
in the middle of the last century. Tanks00:08:28
are used either as an artillery00:08:31
gun, or as a00:08:34
means of mechanization itself, which, well. but, as it were,00:08:37
at the forefront Yes, of any00:08:40
attack by infantry and with the help of armored vehicles, and00:08:44
actually goes ahead, in fact, this is what00:08:46
we see and therefore, of course, the tanks00:08:48
are destroyed here, but we need to say two things,00:08:51
first, the Russian media are very fond of the00:08:54
following tactics, they take some kind of00:08:57
recording not I know the tank columns and00:09:00
since there are a lot of drones flying there,00:09:02
including fits of buckets with a picture,00:09:04
including others, they take this column from00:09:07
different angles and pass it off as different00:09:10
incidents. Well, that is, these are different00:09:12
episodes of the battle, they say here we00:09:14
destroyed Here we are here we00:09:16
destroyed it often turns out to be the00:09:18
same thing there conditionally Tank column in00:09:21
general, based on the totality of what the00:09:23
Russian side shows, it00:09:25
cannot yet be said that the losses are00:09:27
gigantic Yes, equipment is lost Yes00:09:30
Tanks are lost Yes Max is lost by00:09:32
itself because there is an attack on00:09:35
fortified Russian positions that00:09:37
have been preparing for a year, for a year, have been preparing for the fact00:09:41
that they will have to defend themselves, there are00:09:43
minefields there, there is artillery there, there is a00:09:46
layered defense, so of course there00:09:48
will be losses, which Ruslan and I also00:09:51
repeatedly told you about00:09:53
in reports, that is, there are people who00:09:56
imagine a counteroffensive as00:09:58
something that will suddenly arrive a wizard in00:10:00
some kind of yellow-blue helicopter00:10:02
and the Russian troops will simply evaporate as if00:10:05
by magic, it doesn’t00:10:07
work like that, of course there will be battles,00:10:10
of course there will be losses, losses will be00:10:12
considerable, attacking is always more difficult00:10:14
than defending, a separate question about00:10:17
losses in human power The fact is00:10:19
that a tank that is not functioning,00:10:22
that has been knocked out, is not necessarily a00:10:23
lost tank, we are already seeing many00:10:25
episodes, even00:10:27
Russian military officers admit that Tanks that00:10:30
have been hit by fire are00:10:32
evacuated at any time, they are repaired and00:10:35
then they will be put back into service;00:10:37
moreover, leopards are designed so that the00:10:39
crew of the tank is injured least of all Well,00:10:42
that is, so that the chance of saving him was00:10:44
high, so we can’t say00:10:46
that there is one damaged tank. This is definitely,00:10:48
firstly, a decommissioned tank and a destroyed one,00:10:50
and secondly, that the Crew Inside also died,00:10:53
this is so, and again, all the data00:10:57
that we receive At this stage, they are00:10:59
usually from the Russian side. Therefore, it is00:11:04
impossible to judge the scale of what is happening and the success of what is happening. I don’t00:11:07
know, you’re used to this, you’re just used to it.00:11:09
But by June 2023, we know for sure00:11:14
that the Russian side is lying a lot00:11:17
about the losses of Ukraine over the00:11:21
past days who call Shoigu00:11:23
even Yevgeny Prigozhin laughs,00:11:26
listen to how he comments on00:11:28
Shoigu’s story that 1,50000:11:31
Ukrainian military were destroyed, how many are there 28 tanks,00:11:35
eight of them are leopards and others, 10900:11:39
armored vehicles, that’s how Prigozhin reacts to00:11:41
this. I think that Baron Munchausen is00:11:43
resting00:11:45
and00:11:48
because here written We00:11:51
will get to the aliens in the near future with00:11:55
such losses00:12:10
that mom, don’t worry. Therefore, I think that00:12:13
this is just from the realm of wild,00:12:17
crazy science fiction. In general, we need to00:12:20
add up all the numbers that00:12:23
Konashenkov gives. I think that we have already just00:12:25
destroyed the entire planet Earth five times and00:12:28
in fact In fact, this is how00:12:29
any normal, adequate person should react;00:12:31
moreover, two days after this00:12:34
statement from the Ministry of Defense, they are already00:12:36
talking about three thousand dead, this is00:12:38
impossible. This is a meat grinder of such a level00:12:41
that we have not yet seen in this war, so that00:12:44
in two days there were three thousand00:12:46
dead with the Ukrainian side,00:12:49
respectively, plus or minus the same number from the00:12:51
Russian side, there are also wounded X3 but what is this?00:12:54
What kind of battle is this Show it00:12:56
should somehow influence It should be00:12:58
visible it should be Well, uh, protected by a00:13:01
huge number of different00:13:04
observers inside these battles themselves00:13:07
In general, this is all, of course,00:13:09
he deserves direct trust. Of course,00:13:11
I will emphasize that it is necessary to react and00:13:15
look at the means of objective00:13:16
control. That is, when they show a00:13:17
video recording of the destruction there, I don’t know,00:13:19
several tanks and armored vehicles and we00:13:24
see We can confirm that this is yes00:13:25
these are these armored vehicles Yes, we see that They00:13:28
were destroyed, of course Yes, of course, yes, these are00:13:30
losses. Yes, I’m not saying that you shouldn’t believe a00:13:32
single word or frame of00:13:34
Russian propaganda, you just don’t have to take their00:13:36
word for it, you don’t need to00:13:38
verify everything; moreover, the Russian00:13:40
side is what Ukraine warned about,00:13:42
they use and will use the frames00:13:44
which are from previous battles. Well, that is,00:13:47
they will simply lay out some00:13:49
damaged equipment and say,00:13:50
look, we knocked out the equipment,00:13:52
it turns out that this is a battle that took place00:13:54
a long time ago. Yes, it is clear that with leopards00:13:56
this is impossible because they are00:13:58
used for the first time in Ukraine as part of combat00:14:01
operations, but nevertheless, such tactics00:14:03
will also end up due to a vacuum of00:14:06
information due to the fact that the Ukrainian00:14:08
side does not report its00:14:10
successes and the Russian side multiplies00:14:12
its successes by 10 by 20 and tells00:14:15
how they defeated everyone, an unprepared observer00:14:18
may get the00:14:19
impression that everything is bad and everything is lost,00:14:21
this is not true yet does not say anything about the fact00:14:24
that the Ukrainian counter-offensive, if it is00:14:26
going on, it is going on. It means it’s somehow bad for00:14:29
Ukraine, moreover, why do I constantly00:14:32
make a reservation about the counter-offensive if00:14:33
it is going on? You understand what’s the matter? We don’t00:14:37
see the use of, for example some kind of00:14:39
massive strike fist. That is, everything00:14:41
that we see and even what is reported00:14:43
to the front line is the use of00:14:47
fairly small groups of small groups in00:14:50
different directions in four, to be00:14:52
more precise. At this stage, this does not look like a00:14:54
full-fledged strike, but a probing of the00:14:56
Russian defense and identifying00:14:59
weak points there, that is, a small group00:15:01
goes forward, enters into a combat00:15:03
clash and looks at how00:15:05
fortified the positions are, how much00:15:08
active resistance there is,00:15:10
how prepared their own people are to00:15:12
fight a00:15:14
long or short battle there. That is,00:15:17
for now it looks like this, but00:15:19
once again I would like to emphasize that in the conditions of the fog of war, the00:15:21
lack of complete information is00:15:22
difficult to talk about anything for sure right now. This is why the00:15:25
main00:15:28
problem arises in the information space and00:15:30
why do you think independent buildings00:15:33
that have seen that the Ministry of Defense of00:15:35
the Russian Federation is constantly lying are still00:15:37
now giving data to the Ministry of00:15:39
Defense of the Russian Federation Although it seems that00:15:41
until recently they didn’t give a very00:15:43
simple reason, there is a counter-offensive00:15:45
or the initial part of it and people are of course00:15:48
interested in what is happening, people want either00:15:51
immediate Victory or to wring their00:15:54
hands because of an incredible defeat. Well, that00:15:57
is, people have an interest, people want to00:16:00
understand what is happening and these media00:16:03
understand that people want to understand what is00:16:05
happening, they don’t have any data,00:16:07
they only have data from the Ministry of00:16:08
Defense, that’s why they are spreading00:16:10
this disinformation again because everything00:16:13
that the Russian Ministry of00:16:14
Defense says is disinformation and00:16:16
has nothing to do with information,00:16:18
so please don’t pay attention to this00:16:21
attention No, once again we pay00:16:24
attention to photos and videos, checking00:16:27
the geolocation, checking that they00:16:30
show what is described, etc.,00:16:32
etc., etc., but we do not pay attention00:16:33
to oral or written statements about the00:16:36
Ministry of Defense destroying all00:16:38
tanks in the world, I will remind you that according to according to the00:16:40
Ministry of Defense,00:16:42
more Hivers were destroyed in Ukraine than ever before;00:16:44
Abektars were supplied there;00:16:47
more were destroyed than ever produced.00:16:49
Because the Ministry of Defense of00:16:50
the Russian Federation works for one00:16:52
viewer. Yes, Vladimir Putin, tell00:16:56
him how good everything is now, both assessments of the00:16:59
intensification of hostilities by00:17:01
independent experts and commands, the Institute for the00:17:04
Study of War published its summary and00:17:07
it notes the following: On June 10,00:17:09
Ukrainian forces conducted counter-offensive00:17:12
operations on at least four sectors00:17:13
of the front, according to the summary of the American00:17:16
Institute for the Study of War, Russian00:17:18
sources reported the activity of00:17:19
Ukrainians in the Lugansk region in the00:17:21
Belogorovka area, an official representative of the00:17:23
Eastern Group of Forces of the Armed Forces Colonel00:17:25
Sergei fraughtly noted that Ukrainian00:17:27
troops had advanced 1,400 meters on00:17:30
unspecified sections of the Bakun00:17:31
front and Russian bloggers reported the00:17:34
advance of Ukrainian troops to the north-00:17:35
west and north-east of Bakhmut00:17:37
Russian Ministry of Defense other00:17:38
Russian sources claimed that00:17:40
Ukrainian troops were conducting local00:17:42
attacks in the Donetsk border area00:17:43
Zaporozhye regions, in particular in the00:17:45
area of Velyka Novosyolka, geolocated00:17:47
footage published on June 10 indicates00:17:50
that Ukrainian forces in the western00:17:52
part of the Zaporozhye region achieved00:17:53
local successes during attacks to the00:17:55
southwest and southeast of Orekhovo Although00:17:58
Russian bloggers continue to claim00:17:59
that Russian forces are in this area they are00:18:01
successfully defending themselves against attempts at a00:18:03
Ukrainian offensive, writes the Institute for the00:18:05
Study of War, that is, look at how they00:18:07
work with data. And they take important00:18:10
information on the fact of clashes and00:18:13
actually show it. They don’t take the numbers00:18:16
that the Ministry of Defense says. They00:18:18
don’t take their some kind of victorious reports. And00:18:21
actually when they take the data of conditional Z00:18:24
bloggers or pro-Russian military officers, they00:18:27
clarify that reality does not correspond to00:18:29
what these bloggers write and talk about,00:18:31
that is, Judging by the summary of the Institute for the00:18:34
Study of War, which is also based,00:18:36
of course, on very limited data,00:18:37
there are local successes in the Zaporozhye00:18:40
direction, and British intelligence,00:18:43
which also notes local successes00:18:45
within the framework of ongoing counter-offensive00:18:47
operations over the past two days on00:18:49
June 10, they reported that the Ukrainian military00:18:51
carried out several important operations in the00:18:53
East in the south. In some areas of the00:18:55
heights they made significant progress and00:18:58
broke through the first line of Russian defense00:18:59
in other areas, Ukrainian progress was00:19:02
slower than the action of the Russian side00:19:04
cannot be clearly assessed as successful00:19:06
or unsuccessful; some Russian00:19:08
units00:19:09
conduct effective defensive00:19:11
maneuvers while others abandon00:19:13
their positions in some confusion;00:19:15
teachers reports of losses among00:19:17
Russian troops during the retreat due to00:19:19
falling into their own minefields; the00:19:21
Russian air force00:19:23
showed unusual activity over the south of00:19:25
Ukraine where the airspace is00:19:27
safer for them than in other parts of00:19:29
the country, but their airstrikes were00:19:31
still unnaturally effective. Translating into00:19:33
human And in general, let’s do it00:19:36
roughly. I can imagine the00:19:38
possible development of the00:19:40
development of scenarios for what is happening, we00:19:43
have a Russian blocked defense.00:19:45
What does this mean? they have a certain00:19:47
number of positions they can There, having lost the00:19:49
first positions, retreat further and further00:19:51
and, in fact, along the entire line00:19:53
of contact Russia shot such00:19:55
positions, what is the plus of this kind of defense,00:19:58
the plus is that you can00:20:00
effectively conduct combat operations, repelling00:20:02
attacks and move to more advantageous00:20:04
positions even if there is a breakthrough there. The first00:20:07
line of defense, what is the minus in such a line00:20:10
of defense, the minus is that if00:20:13
Ukraine manages to break through the entire Russian defense in one of the directions00:20:15
within this line,00:20:18
then Ukraine will be able to00:20:21
reach the Russian rear and,00:20:23
accordingly, disrupt the Russian battle00:20:25
order Russian the army can either00:20:28
flee or be surrounded; for this, a00:20:31
large-scale breakthrough is needed. What is needed for00:20:33
this breakthrough; for this breakthrough, you need to00:20:35
find the weak point, the place where the00:20:38
Russian defense itself is most00:20:41
vulnerable; what kind of place is this, and I can00:20:44
literally see how they are being probed now;00:20:46
these are places; division of responsibility; Well00:20:49
that is, when there are different military00:20:50
formations, some have control over00:20:53
this section of the front, and secondly, this00:20:54
section of the front and at the junction of00:20:56
responsibility, these are the most vulnerable00:20:59
places, at least as reported,00:21:00
Ukraine is trying to probe precisely00:21:02
such junctions of responsibility of the Russian00:21:05
side, which further complicates00:21:08
the Ukrainian counter-offensive or counter-00:21:11
offensive operations Aviation of00:21:13
Russian aviation, the problem is that at00:21:16
this stage, Ukraine has not yet been supplied with00:21:19
Western aircraft, this00:21:20
will happen only in a few months,00:21:21
therefore Russia has an advantage in00:21:24
aviation that can strike,00:21:26
including helicopters,00:21:28
planes that strike armored vehicles strikes in order for00:21:32
this aircraft to be effectively00:21:33
countered, a large number of00:21:35
air defense systems are needed. Unfortunately, there00:21:38
are not such a large number of them. Russian attacks on00:21:40
various cities of Ukraine Well, they leave00:21:42
the need to use most of the00:21:44
air defense system to00:21:46
protect these very cities; the00:21:48
problem with aviation itself was discussed quite a00:21:50
long time ago This is why Ukraine00:21:53
has said so much that it needs00:21:55
planes,00:21:56
how much of an effect will this have right here00:22:00
and now? It is unclear what will be a success for the00:22:04
Ukrainian counter-offensive for many. A00:22:06
very strange expectation from it, which00:22:08
again in recent months with Ruslan00:22:10
Levi tried to dispel; some00:22:12
believe that the Ukrainian counter-offensive will put an end to00:22:14
this war, that as part of00:22:16
this counter-offensive, Russian troops00:22:18
will completely knock out the territory of00:22:20
Ukraine, this is very unlikely within the framework of00:22:24
one counter-offensive, even one that00:22:26
will last several months, which00:22:27
will be large-scale, all Russian troops00:22:30
from all occupied territories, including00:22:32
Crimea. It will not be possible to extradite because00:22:36
Russia has a lot of people.00:22:38
equipment, many shells, many00:22:39
defensive positions, there is Lugansk00:22:41
Donetsk, which defended there for 8 years, 800:22:45
years became cities that00:22:49
turned them into00:22:52
combat zones, the Russian side00:22:55
did this. Therefore, with this huge00:22:58
territory almost 20% of00:22:59
Ukraine is occupied, driving out all the Russian00:23:02
occupiers in one counter-offensive is00:23:04
quite problematic But what will be00:23:07
considered a success is00:23:09
the cutting of the land corridor to Crimea00:23:11
and, in fact, a strong00:23:15
reduction in the number of occupied00:23:17
territories and Russia’s ability to00:23:20
replenish its own group in the00:23:23
remaining occupied territories; the00:23:25
New York Times itself echoes this and00:23:27
reports that, as00:23:30
their Western sources told the publication, it will be considered00:23:33
a success or the failure of the Ukrainian00:23:35
counter-offensive Let me give you00:23:37
this publication. The United States and the EU have a clear00:23:40
idea of what can be considered00:23:42
Ukraine’s success in the war: the liberation of00:23:44
occupied key territories;00:23:45
critical damage to Moscow so that it will not be00:23:48
discouraged from conducting military operations in the future; the00:23:51
United States writes that Ukraine is with with a high00:23:53
probability it will be able to win small00:23:55
Victories at the initial stage, for example,00:23:57
to return part of the Donbass or oust00:23:59
Russia from agricultural and00:24:00
coal mining areas in the southeast,00:24:02
returning to control of the Zaporozhye00:24:04
nuclear power plant would be both a symbolic and00:24:06
strategic victory for Ukraine. It is also00:24:08
important to move your forces to the coastline and00:24:11
cut off Crimea such development events00:24:13
will be a huge victory, while the United States and00:24:16
allies will evaluate the results of00:24:17
the counteroffensive to understand how to00:24:19
transform the armed forces so that they are able to00:24:21
apply NATO tactics and use00:24:23
modern weapons, the newspaper writes,00:24:26
while some allies fear that00:24:28
large-scale losses in the Russian army00:24:29
may force Putin to begin mass00:24:32
mobilization of the population mobilization Putin00:24:34
will indeed carry out this in the event of a00:24:35
major defeat. But he00:24:38
will carry this out in any case if he00:24:39
loses another question to what extent00:24:41
he will be able to00:24:42
carry out this mobilization. Because people already00:24:44
understand more that mobilization is death and00:24:47
not just a trip to some Fun00:24:48
Camp, therefore Vladimir Putin is00:24:50
postponing it for so long in an amicable way, as00:24:52
many military analysts, including Ruslan, say,00:24:55
was carried out in January in order to00:24:58
achieve an effective00:25:00
accumulation of troops by this summer. Well, that00:25:04
is, so that they are already trained and00:25:05
mobilized so that they can do something... something to00:25:06
do, but Vladimir Putin constantly00:25:08
postpones mobilization, most likely00:25:11
due to fears of social discontent00:25:13
within Russia, because the first00:25:16
mobilization, which was carried out00:25:18
just after the offensive of Ukraine in the00:25:20
Kharkov region, its liberation, this00:25:23
mobilization caused serious00:25:25
discontent in Russian society. And00:25:26
then no one understood that the00:25:28
mobilized will be thrown to the front line00:25:30
so that they will go on assault attacks00:25:32
like cannon fodder. Now the situation is00:25:35
somewhat different and many already understand00:25:37
why they are using the mobilized and what00:25:39
fate awaits them. But this is a separate question,00:25:42
we will return to it some day later,00:25:44
summing up what is now possible with00:25:46
confidence It is very premature to talk about victorious reactions00:25:48
because of this anchors.00:25:50
The information from the00:25:51
Russian Ministry of Defense regarding the00:25:53
number of Ukrainian losses is greatly00:25:54
overestimated and does not correspond to00:25:56
reality. Whether the Ukrainian00:25:58
counteroffensive will be successful or not,00:26:01
only time will tell; there are too many00:26:03
factors influencing this; it will be a complex00:26:05
operation, a complex operation. which00:26:08
requires a large amount of00:26:09
strategic skills and high00:26:13
morale of Ukrainian fighters is now talking about00:26:16
exactly how it will take place and00:26:19
how successful it will be or how00:26:21
successful this initial battle is00:26:23
now. There are local successes,00:26:25
there are losses, this is the worst thing, that in00:26:28
any case there will be losses. I remind you00:26:30
You know that this is not a film or a series or a00:26:32
computer game, we are talking about real00:26:34
people, about living people, but Ukrainian00:26:37
soldiers who went to defend their00:26:39
land, went to defend their relatives and00:26:42
friends, and Ukrainian soldiers who00:26:44
went to stop the aggressor so as not to00:26:47
see more patience in this form00:26:50
in which the Russian army leaves them,00:26:52
this is all a00:26:54
rather harsh and cruel story00:26:59
and there will be losses, there will be victims, there will be00:27:02
obituaries, there will be people who cannot be returned,00:27:05
so you shouldn’t treat this like00:27:07
someone else. I don’t know, there are cards with00:27:10
arrows, these are Living people and real00:27:13
consequences Well, even more so, you should not00:27:16
fall for Russian Propaganda. We00:27:19
have seen so many times how00:27:21
these victorious reports that the Russian00:27:24
soldier defeated everyone, we repelled all the attacks,00:27:26
turn literally within00:27:28
a week into a message that there is00:27:30
no panic. And a day later, what is the00:27:33
next goodwill and how did this happen?00:27:34
Let’s remain reasonable Let’s00:27:37
not be hysterical and not actually perceive the00:27:40
lack of information from the Ukrainian00:27:42
side as a reason to use00:27:44
information from the Russian side00:27:46
because the information from the Russian country00:27:49
deceived us from the very beginning of this00:27:51
war even before it started, therefore You should00:27:54
n’t lose heart or in any way00:27:56
help Russia to misinform00:27:59
themselves and the people around them.00:28:01
Well, what happens from what00:28:04
can be reliably established, we will00:28:06
discuss the reports with Ruslan every day00:28:08
as we do all the past00:28:12
473 days of this war,00:28:16
all the best ByeDescription:
Міноборони Росії повідомило про нібито початок "великомасштабного наступу на п'яти ділянках фронту". Центр стратегічних комунікацій ЗСУ, водночас, заявив, що Росія активізує свої інформаційно-психологічні операції. Майкл Накі @MackNack на своєму каналі проаналізував, що зараз відбувається на фронті та план ЗСУ зі звільнення окупованих територій.
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