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Previous video: СВЕТОВ /// КАШИН /// БЕНЕФИС ПРИГОЖИНА Next video: "НЕФТЯНАЯ ИГЛА" ПУТИНСКОГО КАПИТАЛИЗМА: "тяжёлое наследие" СССР или насаждённая отсталость?

0:00

Введение. Важные люди о готовящемся распаде России

3:51

Призывы

4:17

Спорные территории России и её "сателлиты"

6:50

Есть ли предпосылки к распаду России?

7:35

Олег Комолов о том, есть ли экономические предпосылки к распаду?

11:50

Бедность регионов как защита от сепаратизма

19:40

У власти всё меньше денег для подкупа региональных элит

23:17

Рост недовольства Москвой. Неравенство регионов

24:10

Политические риски распада России

30:10

Какие регионы России жизнеспособны сами по себе?

33:50

Либералы и "деколонизация"

35:50

Как выстраивать региональную политику?

37:05

Итоги. Так ли хрупка Россия?

"НЕФТЯНАЯ ИГЛА" ПУТИНСКОГО КАПИТАЛИЗМА: "тяжёлое наследие" СССР или насаждённая отсталость?

"НЕФТЯНАЯ ИГЛА" ПУТИНСКОГО КАПИТАЛИЗМА: "тяжёлое наследие" СССР или насаждённая отсталость?

Channel: Вестник Бури

СВЕТОВ /// КАШИН /// БЕНЕФИС ПРИГОЖИНА

СВЕТОВ /// КАШИН /// БЕНЕФИС ПРИГОЖИНА

Who is Arming Putin in the West? Secret Revealed.

Who is Arming Putin in the West? Secret Revealed.

Channel: Илья Яшин

СВЕТОВ /// КАШИН /// БОЙНЯ В БРЯНСКОЙ ШКОЛЕ

СВЕТОВ /// КАШИН /// БОЙНЯ В БРЯНСКОЙ ШКОЛЕ

БЕГСТВО ИЗ ХАРЬКОВСКОЙ ОБЛАСТИ // 200 ДНЕЙ ВОЙНЫ

БЕГСТВО ИЗ ХАРЬКОВСКОЙ ОБЛАСТИ // 200 ДНЕЙ ВОЙНЫ

Все не случайно: причины и последствия мирового кризиса / Олег Комолов об эпохе деглобализации

Все не случайно: причины и последствия мирового кризиса / Олег Комолов об эпохе деглобализации

Channel: Деньги не спят

Михаил Хазин: экономический бум в России и закат Европы /// ЭМПАТИЯ МАНУЧИ

Михаил Хазин: экономический бум в России и закат Европы /// ЭМПАТИЯ МАНУЧИ

Channel: ЭМПАТИЯ МАНУЧИ

ПОЧЕМУ И КАК РАБОТАЕТ ПРОПАГАНДА ВОЙНЫ? Гоблин-Пучков, боты и Пелевин

ПОЧЕМУ И КАК РАБОТАЕТ ПРОПАГАНДА ВОЙНЫ? Гоблин-Пучков, боты и Пелевин

Channel: Вестник Бури

ПСЫ ВОЙНЫ: история ЧВК. Пригожин, Blackwater, неоколониализм

ПСЫ ВОЙНЫ: история ЧВК. Пригожин, Blackwater, неоколониализм

Channel: Вестник Бури

МАРГИНАЛ ИЛЬЯ ВАРЛАМОВ и ностальгия по СССР

МАРГИНАЛ ИЛЬЯ ВАРЛАМОВ и ностальгия по СССР

Channel: Вестник Бури

Вестник Бури

Андрей Рудой

Олег Комолов

Простые числа

Простые числа Комолов

Распад России

Кадыров

Пригожин

Война на Украине

Когда распадётся Россия

Санкции

Россия и Украина

экономика

00:00:02

2000s, they now once again

00:00:04

want to repeat the attempt to put the squeeze on us,

00:00:07

trust what they call driving

00:00:10

the people behind the Mozhaiks, they say turn them into a

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weak dependent country,

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violate the territorial integrity,

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dismember the best option for them,

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Russia, the goals of the so-called global

00:00:22

West represented by the United States The States of America

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and the main hangers-on are

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very clear about the destruction of Russia while

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weakening

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other countries, our north had to

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go to Finland for this,

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Finland itself is joining NATO Well, and so on, the

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whole country should be dismembered; there are

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these maps, they are numerous,

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including American samples of these

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map frames you will find about 10 states there, they

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are cutting us into 17 pieces and pieces

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because this very Russia simply should not have

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worked out well with the Soviet

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Union fell to pieces Well, you are

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the next one, no one needs a hefty

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Powerful power that also has the

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Sarmat missile, suddenly it turned out to be

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its again dear mom, she can fly

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through the South Pole, it’s impossible to shoot her down, we do

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n’t see her, they’ll destroy us all,

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they’ll destroy you all, get ready, damn it The topic of

00:01:18

the collapse of Russia is not at all for you, the conversation

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about it is either gaining momentum or fading

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into the background now it’s just gaining momentum against the

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backdrop of the war in territory of Ukraine,

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speakers and experts on both sides of the front

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again actively started talking about the fact that the

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collapse of Russia is quite a real

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prospect in the coming years, and these

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conversations are often extremely

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tendentious in nature and lack

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serious analysis; their function is rather a

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propaganda discussion for Ukraine and the West about the

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collapse of Russia. This is including

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a way to present the enemy as weak and

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incompetent, there are even a

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considerable number of maps of the collapse of the Russian Federation circulating on the Internet, rarely in

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any way correlating with

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reality, in principle, pro-Western

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options, liberals from Russia are promoting

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approximately the same discourse, they even convened an

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entire conference on the decolonization of the

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country, the granting of sovereignty by a

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national minority And in Russia

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Such speeches are often used by

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guards, saying that if Russia loses in the

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Ukrainian company, if Putin is not there,

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then Mother Russia will inevitably disintegrate into

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appanage principalities. Therefore, you need to

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unite, listen to the Shaman and go to

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mobilization. It is clear that both of these

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approaches are based primarily on

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manipulations And their main goal create a

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propaganda effect But the point

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really is that Russia has, let’s

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say, not zero chances, if not for

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complete collapse, then at least for the loss of

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certain territories and destructive

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tendencies that are breaking the unity of Russia,

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launched. Strangely enough, not by the insidious

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West, but by the Russian authorities. By the way, everyone is

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paying attention to this attention and

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opposition forces and media persons that

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Tell me that the right but he is a journalist

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Oleg Kashin, in principle, 9 years ago already

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stated that Russia, in principle, has already

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collapsed. It’s just that many people, by inertia,

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do not notice this. When will the

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Russian Federation collapse? Yes, never. The fact is

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that it has already collapsed simply this is

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not yet so noticeable today we will talk about

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how possible the collapse or

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half-life of Russia is, what trends there are for this,

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what limiting

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factors there are, how the Russian oligarchy and the

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state apparatus led by

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Putin have done a lot for the future

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territorial problems of the country in this

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issue the famous will help me I think

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to almost all of you, economist Oleg

00:03:39

Komolov from the channel, prime numbers, in general,

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let's go

00:03:46

[music]

00:03:51

Before we move on to the topic, as

00:03:53

always, I persistently encourage you to

00:03:55

subscribe to the resources of the Storm Messenger on

00:03:57

social networks and to my telegram channel, there are

00:03:59

news articles, notes, and in moderation and

00:04:02

overly funny and sad memes videos from

00:04:05

friendly resources and of course

00:04:07

announcements and reminders about our videos in

00:04:10

general Welcome all links in the

00:04:12

description We are starting to

00:04:13

talk closely about the likelihood of the collapse of

00:04:17

Russia Usually when they talk about the

00:04:19

potential collapse of Russia, they

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first of all remember disputed

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territories Well, they say, if the country

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weakens If there is an unfavorable

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external situation, then we will lose these territories.

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Disputed territories, we

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actually have

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such territories on the scale of vast Russia, by the way,

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not that many, but as they say,

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losses will be an extremely unpleasant moment for Russian society,

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even psychologically.

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not recognized by most

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states, Crimea is the territory of the

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Kherson part of the Zaporozhye Donetsk and

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Lugansk regions, pleasant recently from

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Ukraine, this is 160 disputed square

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kilometers on the border with Georgia. This is a

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small island of Natunda or deer of 32

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square kilometers, which is

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claimed by Korea. This is a group of

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South Kuril islands with a total area of

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more than 5,000 square kilometers

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claimed by Japan Latvia is laying

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claim to the Pytalovsky district with an important

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railway interchange Estonia is aiming

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at the Pechora district Ivangorod, which actually

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forms a single system with Narva Well, the

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funniest claims come from

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Taiwan, also officially the

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Republic of China, which itself is not

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recognized by almost anyone in the world Well, there, in addition to

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the USA and Great Britain, he lays claim to

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the Republic of you and more than 60 villages

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near Blagoveshchensk, given that

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Taiwan itself faces the illusory

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problem of being seized by the

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generally recognized China. Yes, and objectively

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located several thousand kilometers

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from the coveted territories, they sound

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especially comical. However, they exist in

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In principle, the most realistic thing for Russia is to lose

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territories that, as

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official Propaganda claims, are liberated from the

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Ukrainian regime. But this will depend

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on the degree of defeat of the Russian government in the

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current war. As for other

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territories, all of them have

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full-fledged international treaties,

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including the treaties of the forties, which

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seem to protect Russia from claims,

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but no one has canceled the right of the strongest, and

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in principle, with the total weakening

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of Russia, someone Well, except maybe

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Taiwan, Can chop them off Well, or at

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least try, there is every chance

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in a critical situation of losing

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Russian satellites like South Ossetia,

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which will go to Georgia and even from Abkhazia Everything

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may not be very rosy

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Transnistria, which will return to

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Moldova However, these are all border or

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adjacent territories in general Even

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their rejection is difficult to call the collapse of Russia,

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but Let’s see

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If indeed the preconditions for the

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global collapse of Russia itself, which have been

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nightmares for us since all parties there

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no longer hesitate to openly declare their

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intention not only to inflict

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military defeats on our country but also to destroy,

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dismember Russia, in other words,

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to achieve the disappearance from the political

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map of the world of a too independent

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geopolitical magnitude No matter how much we are

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told about the miraculous Russians, the spirit of the

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foundations of a strong state as well as the

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foundation for separatism lie

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primarily in the economy, and here, for

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example, Oleg Komolov has very

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serious skepticism about the existence of

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serious economic

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prerequisites for separatism, so this is

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actually the first question that I

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would like to ask you: if at all there are any

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economic prerequisites for the collapse of

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Russia at the moment, at least

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for the fall of 22, I do not see the economic

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prerequisites for the collapse of Russia because

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the collapse of Russia is some kind of phenomenon that

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will primarily have

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political prerequisites since, after

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all, we have a single economic system in our

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country, there is a working tax

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system, the Russian ruble in fact,

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it is a currency in all Russian

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regions and in fact it is difficult to

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imagine that in modern Russia there

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would be some kind of economic enclave or there would be a

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territory separated from the only economy of a single economic system that today

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would live some kind of separate life,

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could spread these metastases to

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others Russian regions and

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economic reasons, even

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economic interest in

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Russia’s situation. It seems to me that no one in the

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Russian oligarchs, much less the

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Russian people, or even our

00:08:28

foreign colleagues and partners. Well,

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yesterday’s aleyka partners, and today there are

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irreconcilable enemies with whom the

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Russian ruling government is bravely entering into a fight.

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class Well, actually Why Because

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Russia is interesting to world capitalism

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as a supplier psoriasis supplier of

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natural resources so that these resources

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flow uninterruptedly from east to west Well,

00:08:47

preferably to the west Or maybe in

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China, ultimately China is also a

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major player in the geopolitical arena and it

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too Russia has its own interests,

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but China would also obviously not want the

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collapse of Russia because if suddenly

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this collapse happens, then the

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stability and sustainability of these same

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raw material flows will be disrupted; it is much more

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profitable to have a

00:09:07

strong comprodor

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state on the territory of Russia that suppresses all the sprouts of

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political initiative and kills

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democracy uh destroys trade unions and

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independent political forces In the name of

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maintaining this political order of

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stability of stability of stability of

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preserving Russia like a raw materials

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appendage of a more developed center of

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accumulation, be it Europe or China Uh-huh

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And you don’t see uh let’s say in the inequality

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between regions and isn’t it

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certain infrastructure development Hmm Well, indeed, the

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prerequisites for future separatism and

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decentralization Well, as I already said,

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with such hot spots for the

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spread of separatism in Russia,

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regions relatively rich in natural resources, such as

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Tatarstan, Bashkortostan, and in

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general, those subjects of the Russian Federation

00:10:03

that today act as donors to the

00:10:05

federal budget can become this is Moscow this is

00:10:07

St. Petersburg this is Tyumen Khanty-Mansi

00:10:09

Autonomous Okrug Well, I don’t know. Could

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it happen that

00:10:13

some kind of Leningrad

00:10:14

People’s Republic or Tyumen

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People’s Republic will appear on the territory of Russia Well,

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this story is something so fantastic It seems to me,

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although today nothing can be

00:10:22

surprising I think if this wave of

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separatism goes, then of course, precisely on a

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national basis, some

00:10:27

national outskirts may become a

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source of the spread of these

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ideas that are obviously harmful to our society.

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As for inequality in the regions, it most likely

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leads to desolation and degradation and the

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gradual death of these regions, but there is a

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well-known joke about Murmansk Well, it’s

00:10:43

not even anecdotes, it’s just a story

00:10:44

that students told me We are

00:10:46

from this region Who is there The last one will

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fly out of the Murmansk airport without

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turning off the lights because the region is dying out,

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it is not economically attractive,

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investments are not going there, the population is

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leaving en masse for larger cities in the

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first place turn of the capital Well, this is

00:11:00

actually the unenviable fate of many

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Russian regions that do not have

00:11:03

any significant natural resource

00:11:05

such as, first of all, oil and gas,

00:11:07

this is in fact

00:11:10

the only condition for the prosperity of the region

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today Well, the financial system Moscow

00:11:14

is based on the financial system as they are

00:11:15

there Perm is for us

00:11:17

oil and gas production, but if this is not the case,

00:11:20

then the region is simply slowly dying and,

00:11:21

accordingly,

00:11:23

there is no reason for separatism, because separatism is a very

00:11:26

specific political process

00:11:27

that expresses the struggle for the redistribution of

00:11:30

resources within the country, if the region

00:11:32

is interesting for the

00:11:33

locals, it is the local national

00:11:36

bourgeoisie, it is interesting from the point of view its

00:11:37

separation and removal from the control of the

00:11:40

center of the Russian economy, I mean

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the Kremlin and Moscow, then separatism

00:11:44

will of course raise its head if

00:11:46

this resource is not there, then there is

00:11:47

actually nothing to fight for, as

00:11:49

paradoxical as it may seem,

00:11:52

Russia’s peripheral raw material position in the

00:11:54

world economy as well as economic

00:11:56

weakness and the devastation of the regions are

00:11:58

deterrents from separatism, in

00:12:01

my opinion, you mixed up No, I didn’t

00:12:04

mix up anything in the video about Chechnya.

00:12:06

Watch it, by the way, there will definitely be links

00:12:08

on the screen and in the description, the

00:12:10

guys from Lenin Kru and I showed what

00:12:13

Putin’s policy was towards

00:12:15

Ichkeria and what is the policy towards many

00:12:17

subjects of the Federation in principle and the scheme

00:12:20

This is something like this dies out And

00:12:22

local production is destroyed,

00:12:23

elements of infrastructure the region

00:12:25

becomes not independent in the case of

00:12:28

Chechnya this was done by the Russian

00:12:29

authorities the goals are directed in most

00:12:32

cases it comes out Most likely not

00:12:33

purposefully well and then how if only one

00:12:36

Region became subsidized

00:12:38

unviable on its own in Soviet

00:12:40

times, as we know, the planned policy for

00:12:43

the development of national republics of regions

00:12:45

on the ground created a bunch of educational

00:12:48

institutions for the development and reproduction of

00:12:50

personnel, developed local industries

00:12:52

from the center to the outskirts, lured

00:12:54

young specialists and not only with

00:12:57

slogans and ideological clichés they were

00:12:59

actually provided with Social lifts

00:13:01

serious allowances In this way, by the way,

00:13:04

local modernization also moved forward, and

00:13:06

where previously there were absolutely wild villages

00:13:09

or nomadic auls,

00:13:11

cities with a new culture and

00:13:14

technology grew in a matter of years. However, this ultimately provided the

00:13:16

economic basis for separatism. I

00:13:19

want to go here remember the history of

00:13:21

thirty years ago, the unenviable

00:13:23

fate of the Soviet Union, which was

00:13:25

disintegrating precisely for economic

00:13:26

reasons, the bourgeoisie in the Russian

00:13:29

Soviet republics actively

00:13:30

played the nationalist card in

00:13:32

order to take over public

00:13:34

property and wrest it from the

00:13:36

control of Moscow out of control, and

00:13:39

thus the collapse of the country was in essence, the

00:13:42

instrument remade the property, but

00:13:43

the main thing would be that it would surprise simply a

00:13:45

lot of Russian regions where there is nothing to

00:13:46

divide, which there is nothing to take, these

00:13:48

unprofitable subsidized completely

00:13:50

depressed zones that

00:13:51

will completely reliably maintain their connection with

00:13:54

Moscow because without it they simply will not

00:13:56

survive; they live at the expense of the Moscow

00:13:57

Kremlin federal subsidies, even

00:14:00

Chechnya during the time of Dudayev intended

00:14:02

to use oil production and

00:14:03

oil refining created in Soviet

00:14:05

times in order to be competitive,

00:14:08

including in the international arena.

00:14:10

Now look what happens: there is no

00:14:12

own production, which means there is no

00:14:14

economic basis for separatism in

00:14:17

this regard. Of course, it is much more

00:14:19

profitable for Moscow to pump out natural human resources from the regions

00:14:22

resources in return to give subsidies

00:14:24

than to develop local production,

00:14:26

infrastructure, some kind of education and

00:14:29

thus create the basis for

00:14:31

future separatism. Therefore, if the

00:14:34

conditional Republics of the North Caucasus

00:14:36

or some republic of Tuva

00:14:39

want to separate from Russia, but they

00:14:41

simply slide into the Stone Age and

00:14:43

face the threat of complete

00:14:44

extinction I would like to focus on this,

00:14:46

does it mean that the

00:14:49

degradation and withering of the regions and sitting

00:14:53

on the subsidized needle is a certain

00:14:57

measure against separatism, but I don’t think

00:15:00

that this is a conscious policy of the Kremlin,

00:15:03

maintaining a low standard of living in the

00:15:05

regions for the sake of suppressing separatist

00:15:08

movements is just a natural

00:15:10

result structural degradation of the

00:15:12

Russian economy of the

00:15:13

center of peripheral relations within the

00:15:16

Russian Federation, namely the pressure of the

00:15:18

center over the periphery of Moscow over the

00:15:21

regions that sucks out of them

00:15:22

the best natural financial and,

00:15:25

accordingly, labor resources, this

00:15:26

leads to the desolation of individual subjects

00:15:29

and therefore, in general, this very

00:15:32

desolation prevents the development of

00:15:34

separatist sentiments, again I

00:15:36

once emphasized that only rich regions rich in

00:15:39

resources, financially rich, rich in

00:15:41

labor resources can become a

00:15:43

source of the spread of such trends

00:15:46

and such trends, again because

00:15:48

first of all you need to have a resource in the

00:15:51

struggle for which the local Elite will enter into

00:15:53

with the Federal authorities. Once again I emphasize

00:15:55

that in general, none of the representatives

00:15:58

Such are the most significant towers of

00:16:02

the Kremlin or representatives of the Russian

00:16:04

oligarchs of its various clans, not to foreign

00:16:07

capitalists, not in the West, not in the East

00:16:10

as a whole, as the collapse of Russia as a single

00:16:13

economic system is not beneficial

00:16:15

because the Russian economy is now structured as

00:16:17

profitably as possible for foreign

00:16:21

capital, for decades our economy has been adjusted to a

00:16:23

certain place in the

00:16:25

international division of labor and

00:16:27

its political system was also deformed, the

00:16:29

main economy of the pipe and the rest of the

00:16:31

economic system serves this

00:16:33

pipe, this can be seen, for example, through the state of the

00:16:36

financial market through the foreign exchange market,

00:16:38

the state of the tax system, because

00:16:40

ultimately all these elements, well,

00:16:42

especially the foreign exchange tax policy of the

00:16:43

Russian state shows that

00:16:45

all other sectors of the Russian

00:16:46

economy are aimed at ensuring the

00:16:48

main

00:16:50

branch of the economic system of the Russian

00:16:52

Federation, namely the raw materials export

00:16:54

sector, the exchange rate. Well, as we know,

00:16:57

for decades the Russian state has

00:16:58

devalued the ruble to please the raw materials

00:17:00

exporter, while oppressing the interests of

00:17:02

importers. And this is usually

00:17:04

manufacturing and ordinary

00:17:06

people who, in essence, with their labor

00:17:07

provided raw material rent for raw materials

00:17:11

companies in

00:17:12

the oil sector, first of all,

00:17:14

the tax system, we see how

00:17:16

the state robs many

00:17:18

progressive

00:17:19

high-tech industries with taxes while

00:17:21

providing the oil and gas sector with a

00:17:23

colossal amount of tax benefits; this is the

00:17:25

oil and gas sector the main recipient of

00:17:27

tax benefits in Russia, which is calculated one and a

00:17:29

half trillion rubles of

00:17:31

uncollected taxes from the federal budget,

00:17:34

that is, ultimately, all Russian

00:17:36

regions. Well, more of them and all

00:17:38

other sectors of Russian

00:17:39

industry are needed because they are

00:17:42

ultimately aimed at

00:17:43

servicing the pipe and for this reason

00:17:45

you can’t just cut them off from Russia

00:17:47

regions that are not directly

00:17:49

related to the extraction of minerals and

00:17:51

thereby preserve the Russian economy

00:17:53

unchanged in the role of a raw material

00:17:56

appendage of China or Western Europe, all

00:18:00

this is an integral system, starting to remove

00:18:03

individual bricks from it, we will certainly

00:18:05

come to the destruction of the system as a whole, we

00:18:06

will have to build some new one which

00:18:08

will naturally be accompanied by

00:18:10

interruptions in the supply of

00:18:12

resources abroad and all this will naturally

00:18:14

undermine the interests of capital in the East and

00:18:18

West, so I would like to emphasize once again that I

00:18:20

very much doubt that the thesis that the

00:18:22

Guardians are constantly throwing at us is the

00:18:25

collapse of Russia in the event of its defeat. with

00:18:29

in confrontation with NATO forces and

00:18:32

some other external aggressions will

00:18:33

certainly lead to the scenario of the collapse

00:18:35

of the country, this is the collapse of the country, and the

00:18:37

same North Atlantic alliance did not

00:18:39

look like a long-term prospect

00:18:40

except some kind of tactical move

00:18:42

aimed at weakening the Federal

00:18:44

Russian government, but in general How

00:18:45

The economic unit Russia is of course

00:18:46

interesting to the West and, in general, to any business, whether

00:18:49

Russian or foreign, as an

00:18:52

integral system that guarantees

00:18:54

stable exports of hydrocarbons that

00:18:56

provide the Russian bourgeoisie with an

00:18:58

intermediary tape. Well, the West is a cheap

00:19:01

resource; this really is a

00:19:03

deterrent for the local Elites

00:19:06

and, in general, people representing the real

00:19:09

state of affairs that is, they are less

00:19:11

committed to separatism; this is also a

00:19:14

deterrent on the international

00:19:16

stage. But these factors may weaken

00:19:19

if Moscow loses the ability to

00:19:21

supply the regions with subsidies and if the

00:19:24

state power

00:19:25

apparatus weakens, first of all, and it is, in general, already

00:19:27

weakening. That is, if everywhere in Russia

00:19:29

chaos will begin, then

00:19:32

rational reasons will naturally

00:19:34

fade into the background. In principle,

00:19:36

similar processes have already started,

00:19:39

especially since the 2020 pandemic; the

00:19:42

possibility of bribing regions and

00:19:44

regional elites has actually decreased;

00:19:47

stagnating economies are constantly under

00:19:50

no money; sometimes conflicts

00:19:53

between oligarchs close to Putin

00:19:55

and regional barons came to the

00:19:58

surface the arrest of the Khabarovsk

00:19:59

governor, businessman Sergei Furgal,

00:20:02

caused mass protests in 2020

00:20:05

that lasted six months during

00:20:07

the pandemic, regional and local budgets

00:20:09

no longer converged their own

00:20:11

incomes amounted to 10.8 trillion rubles

00:20:14

with expenses of 15.6 trillion rubles,

00:20:18

even federal subsidies in the amount

00:20:20

more than 4 trillion rubles

00:20:22

could not solve the situation; the approaching

00:20:24

bankruptcy of the regions undermined the

00:20:26

loyalty of local Elites; maintaining the

00:20:28

loyalty of vassals within the country outside

00:20:31

increasingly required unusual corruption;

00:20:33

and threats or use of violence

00:20:36

became systematic; this violence became

00:20:39

institutionalized around him; the

00:20:42

war party gradually consolidated; it saw a way out of the impasse in

00:20:45

force and force the West to leave the

00:20:47

political market of post-Soviet countries, externally

00:20:50

targeted violence looked like an

00:20:52

ideal way for these people

00:20:54

to prevent any outbreaks of discontent.

00:20:56

And in Russia itself, social entropy is

00:20:59

very toxic; it needs to be exported

00:21:01

for disposal on foreign territory,

00:21:04

Vladislav Surkov wrote in his frank text

00:21:06

if the war were over

00:21:08

with a brilliant blitzkrieg, Putin’s oligarchy

00:21:11

could have secured itself a

00:21:13

few more years of deadening calm.

00:21:14

However, the export of entropy failed.

00:21:17

Alexei Sakhnin, which made the war

00:21:20

inevitable and is preventing it from ending, you know,

00:21:23

I wouldn’t want to engage in hysteria in the

00:21:25

spirit of oh, Russia is going to fall apart tomorrow.

00:21:28

Moreover, the restraining factors, well,

00:21:30

objectively exist, but and the alarm

00:21:34

bells, in general, cannot be ignored either,

00:21:36

plus the factor of

00:21:39

regional inequality is kind of twofold, that is, on the

00:21:42

one hand, it is still preventing the

00:21:44

collapse of the country, on the other hand, it is

00:21:46

fueling discontent with Moscow; a

00:21:48

catastrophic

00:21:50

and non-reducing gap between a

00:21:52

few prosperous and a mass of

00:21:54

disadvantaged regions naturally does not

00:21:57

contribute to the unity of Russia and even at the

00:22:00

everyday level generates memes like

00:22:02

Moscow is not Russia or We've come in large numbers here. Based on the

00:22:06

results of the study,

00:22:07

we can conclude that there is a significant

00:22:10

asymmetry in the socio-economic

00:22:12

development of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation.

00:22:14

Among the primary prerequisites for

00:22:16

the formation of processes of regional

00:22:18

differentiation are

00:22:20

significant differences in level of

00:22:22

resource potential the presence in

00:22:24

some subjects of dominant industries

00:22:26

dependent on the global situation

00:22:28

centralization of financial

00:22:31

resources at the federal level processes of

00:22:33

disintegration and differentiation and

00:22:35

Regional Development as a threat to the

00:22:37

economic security of the Russian

00:22:39

Federation scientific journal fundamental

00:22:42

research 2018 in the leading regions

00:22:46

per capita 12% of the population still live in the Republic of Poland

00:22:50

23 percent of Russians live in relatively

00:22:52

developed regions, in total this

00:22:55

third of the population Whoever governs these

00:22:57

regions has specific

00:22:59

advantages.

00:23:01

More than half of the population will contribute to their development. 52

00:23:04

percent lives in the middle regions where there are

00:23:07

no obvious specific advantages where

00:23:09

institutions need to be improved to

00:23:11

promote development but

00:23:13

until the institutional environment in Russia is

00:23:15

as it is, there will be a breakthrough,

00:23:18

finally, approximately every eighth

00:23:19

Russian lives in an outsider region. What to

00:23:22

do with them, support for underdeveloped

00:23:24

regions is necessary, no matter how they relate

00:23:26

to this thesis, the question is how to

00:23:29

support and how to control

00:23:31

spending funds so that it goes to the

00:23:33

reproduction of human capital and

00:23:36

not to the enrichment of the elite Natalya Zubarevich

00:23:39

regional inequality in Russia

00:23:40

it is necessary to note that the inequality of

00:23:43

regions against the backdrop of the economic crisis

00:23:45

became one of the factors in the collapse of the

00:23:47

Soviet Union Well, those older than me

00:23:50

probably remember these conversations that

00:23:52

oh-oh others will collect Republics,

00:23:55

now we will separate and live, only

00:23:57

in Soviet times,

00:23:59

many, many times

00:24:02

more was done for the republics than is being done now, and for the tenth

00:24:04

time I will note that it was the development of the

00:24:07

republics that created the economic basis

00:24:09

for separatism; however, here I generally

00:24:12

agree with the idea that if and there will be

00:24:14

movements towards the territorial split of

00:24:16

Russia, then they will have to a greater

00:24:18

extent political reasons; the

00:24:20

political risks of the collapse of Russia

00:24:23

seem to me, well, rather, they are more obvious and

00:24:26

lie on the surface and probably if the

00:24:29

collapse of Russia begins, God forbid, it will

00:24:30

most likely be for political reasons; they are for

00:24:32

economic reasons and this can happen. Well, due to

00:24:36

some ups and downs within the ruling

00:24:40

class, some kind of Kremlin coup is possible, the

00:24:42

overthrow of the tsar and the coming to

00:24:45

power of some new forces within the

00:24:46

same ruling class, and perhaps a

00:24:48

contradiction between different clans of the

00:24:51

modern Russian bourgeoisie can

00:24:52

trigger some kind of

00:24:53

decentralization process in our political

00:24:56

system and, in fact, one of the

00:24:58

tools of the struggle for power in a new

00:25:01

such post-post Putin

00:25:04

or some other new Russian

00:25:07

political system may be a

00:25:09

bet on nationalism in certain

00:25:11

regions that will become centers of

00:25:13

instability and in them, not without the help of

00:25:16

big capital,

00:25:20

such separatist movements will be supported as in

00:25:24

Chechnya, Bashkortostan, Tatarstan and

00:25:26

other Russian national outskirts,

00:25:28

which again will be used

00:25:31

primarily as a political

00:25:32

tool in the fight against opponents. Well, yes, there are

00:25:34

risks to

00:25:37

all of this, of course By the way, it can contribute to the

00:25:39

creation of military units not

00:25:41

directly related to the armed forces of

00:25:43

the Russian Federation. First of all,

00:25:45

this applies to private military companies and,

00:25:48

in fact, Guber’s own

00:25:51

military units. As for PMCs,

00:25:53

everyone usually hears about Wagner PMCs,

00:25:56

which was created by Putin’s cook Evgeniy

00:25:59

Prigozhin, cook What is Kakova your profession

00:26:05

dude Wagner has armored vehicles

00:26:08

and heavy infantry weapons

00:26:10

the unit has participated in the Syrian

00:26:12

conflict since 2013 it was

00:26:15

involved during the return of Crimea

00:26:17

then transferred to the territory of the

00:26:19

Lugansk region Africa the Middle East in

00:26:21

general that is not a conflict with the presence of

00:26:23

interests of the Russian authorities or

00:26:25

corporations which is approximately in general- then the

00:26:27

same thing appears there Wogner and

00:26:30

notice how the political

00:26:32

Mr. Prigozhin stood up, he is no longer just

00:26:34

openly recruiting prisoners and distributing

00:26:36

amnesty, which is generally the prerogative of the

00:26:38

Russian parliament, but also openly

00:26:41

admits to financing political

00:26:43

parties and makes political

00:26:45

statements much more weighty and

00:26:47

arrogant than some leaders of actions

00:26:50

in the State Duma, however, the Wagner PMC is not an

00:26:53

isolated case, it’s just the most

00:26:55

promoted by the media and close to

00:26:57

Putin, there are a number of other Russian

00:26:59

dudes, including those that are directly organized

00:27:01

under corporations in Iraq, for example, the

00:27:03

Russian PMC Lukoil operates And this

00:27:07

company is a division of the

00:27:08

oil giant it was created by

00:27:11

veterans of the pennant in the mid-

00:27:13

90s, legally it is a private security company, but in Iraq

00:27:16

Lukoil performs the typical tasks of a

00:27:18

private military company guarding

00:27:21

fields and oil pipelines delivering

00:27:23

cargo accompanied by convoys.

00:27:30

whoever the

00:27:33

small-town armies are recruiting for

00:27:35

camouflage as security companies

00:27:37

ensuring the peace of governors from

00:27:40

professional military personnel in

00:27:42

active service from brothers

00:27:44

included in organized criminal

00:27:46

groups from nationalists and

00:27:48

Special Forces Veterans, say in Tuva, they decided to

00:27:51

entrust the care of the security of the head of

00:27:53

the region to military personnel of the 55th

00:27:56

Motorized Rifle Mountain The brigade

00:27:58

is essentially a small army of 1,300

00:28:01

bayonets, armed with helicopters and

00:28:04

armored personnel carriers, staffed by

00:28:06

a unit based on ethnicity,

00:28:08

1,047 military personnel, units of

00:28:11

local Tuvans in Chechnya, the security of

00:28:13

Ramzan Kadyrov is provided by the elite special

00:28:16

unit Terek, theoretically, the

00:28:18

security of the head of the Chechen Republic is

00:28:19

called upon to be provided by the special unit of the

00:28:22

FSB, but Ramzan has the same participation our

00:28:25

regional church is his own hand, the Lord and

00:28:28

he refused Federal protection

00:28:30

Ruslan Gorevoy small-town army

00:28:32

newspaper our version dated February 20,

00:28:36

2017 and now Imagine all this

00:28:38

splendor private military companies,

00:28:40

governor’s units in the event of a

00:28:43

violent outbreak can easily be used

00:28:46

in a civil war in territorial

00:28:48

conflicts then there is a center born She is

00:28:50

depriving herself of the monopoly on violence this is a

00:28:52

Fact there is one more cultural moment of politics

00:28:55

that personally worries me very

00:28:57

much This is a question of ideas and

00:29:00

civic identity right there Oleg

00:29:02

Kashin As a representative of the right, he

00:29:04

absolutizes this factor, but it

00:29:06

cannot be discounted all the

00:29:08

strong cheers Patriotic the concept

00:29:10

that the Russian authorities have been trying to build for many years does

00:29:13

n’t work very well, I

00:29:15

refer you once again to my video about

00:29:18

Soviet and Putin’s patriotism, links

00:29:20

will be on the screen and in the description here,

00:29:22

the eclectic postmodernist

00:29:24

irrational Frankenstein of Putin’s

00:29:27

national idea on which a

00:29:29

considerable amount of money was spent doesn’t work well

00:29:31

And in a crisis moment stops working

00:29:33

altogether and it is not a fact that citizens

00:29:36

will generally have an understanding of a common

00:29:38

national or civic

00:29:39

identity. Moreover, the Far

00:29:42

East has long been discussing events in the

00:29:44

west of the country with the question: What is

00:29:47

there in Russia? Although it must be admitted that

00:29:50

among the political factors there are at

00:29:53

least the only thing holding back the collapse of Russia

00:29:55

is nuclear weapons, at a minimum, the external

00:29:59

dismemberment of the country in such conditions

00:30:01

becomes, Well, an extremely problematic

00:30:03

matter. Moreover, as has already been

00:30:05

said, it is more profitable for the West. A

00:30:07

united authoritarian Russia with such an

00:30:10

accommodating leadership, let’s say

00:30:13

something extraordinary happens.

00:30:16

Let’s say the current military actions

00:30:18

will take us -and in the final impasse there is

00:30:21

chaos and so on there is a clash with

00:30:24

NATO forces, whatever. In general, Russia,

00:30:28

one way or another, let’s say, breaks up into a

00:30:30

number of entities. Which regions, in your

00:30:35

opinion, can be the most

00:30:37

viable as separate

00:30:39

such mini-Russians, or in your opinion, any

00:30:43

separation, any division entails

00:30:46

infrastructural collapse and

00:30:51

any parts of Russia turn out to be

00:30:53

unviable enough Look at the

00:30:55

Soviet Union for example to see

00:30:58

What the system is threatened by its division into

00:31:02

separate pieces Russia itself,

00:31:03

of course, is not the Soviet Union It is not so

00:31:05

diversified, the connections between the subjects are not so important,

00:31:07

but still I will once again

00:31:09

emphasize the Russian economy of this

00:31:11

system, that is, a set of

00:31:12

interconnected elements and it is possible that it is impossible to

00:31:14

tear out a

00:31:17

piece or even several pieces from any system and

00:31:19

force them to live a separate life, just as

00:31:20

it is impossible to remove an organ from a person,

00:31:23

for example a kidney, and that means expecting that the

00:31:26

body will survive this calmly and will continue

00:31:28

to function as before, just like the

00:31:30

kidney itself, without the rest of the body, is

00:31:31

unlikely to be able to maintain its

00:31:33

viability, which does not lose all

00:31:35

meaning if you mean the question:

00:31:38

Which regions could survive

00:31:41

having separated from Russia in some

00:31:42

future perspective But still, then

00:31:45

you need to look at this issue from the

00:31:46

point of view of the medium term or even

00:31:48

the long term, because in the short term,

00:31:50

of course, the whole of

00:31:52

Moscow will suffer because it

00:31:53

is a center of accumulation and like a

00:31:55

vacuum cleaner sucks resources from the regions and no matter

00:31:58

how beautiful, elegant and shiny it is

00:32:00

after Sobyanin’s renovation of

00:32:02

Tverskaya Street, however, without its

00:32:04

own periphery, without regions, without

00:32:06

locating in Moscow the main branches of the

00:32:09

largest Russian gaming companies

00:32:11

that operate somewhere in Siberia

00:32:13

and pay taxes here in Moscow, conduct

00:32:15

legal

00:32:17

financial and other activities here in Moscow,

00:32:18

providing Moscow with

00:32:21

budget revenues without these

00:32:24

regions, even Moscow will not survive and

00:32:26

will not be able to maintain the normal

00:32:28

process of reproduction in the long

00:32:30

term, of course they will survive Well, relatively speaking,

00:32:31

they will survive Well, more or less, the

00:32:35

production process will be restored to

00:32:37

those regions that have

00:32:39

certain resources. First of all,

00:32:40

oil and gas, and secondly, I’m talking about the south

00:32:43

Russia, which has good

00:32:45

land resources. I mean, they are

00:32:46

able to organize a

00:32:49

network of economic production, but

00:32:51

direct it to some of the markets,

00:32:53

maybe to some pieces that have been torn off from

00:32:56

Russia, or abroad, in general,

00:32:58

ultimately, fertile soils, oil and

00:33:01

gas. Well, perhaps these are two resources on

00:33:05

which regions can rely and

00:33:07

then are capable of some kind of relatively

00:33:09

independent life. If we, friend,

00:33:10

imagine such a completely normal,

00:33:13

yet fantastic scenario as the disintegration of

00:33:15

Russia into separate entities. So here is the

00:33:17

Krasnodar Territory,

00:33:19

Tyumen Perm Well, accordingly,

00:33:22

the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug. Here

00:33:24

they are, of course, in first of all, they will be able to

00:33:27

stabilize their economies simply

00:33:29

due to their export potential. As for

00:33:32

such regions as the Kirov region, the

00:33:35

Far East, Murmansk, well, an

00:33:38

unenviable fate awaits them, most likely just

00:33:40

for the population and even more massive

00:33:41

immigration; the population is relatively more

00:33:44

stable regions since without communication with the

00:33:47

center these subjects of the Russian

00:33:48

Federation are viable, given this, I was

00:33:51

simply blown away when some

00:33:53

opposition liberals announced a course

00:33:56

towards the so-called decolonization of Russia.

00:33:58

Some of them generally declare that the

00:34:00

collapse of Russia is not so bad;

00:34:02

it is obvious that on the one hand they want to

00:34:05

suck up to the West as one of the parties to the

00:34:07

current conflict, and on the other hand

00:34:09

rely on the regional elites in Russia,

00:34:11

promising them big goodies, a

00:34:15

forum of free peoples of Russia will be held in Prague. On this

00:34:18

day, the whole world will mark the

00:34:21

mourning date of five months from the date

00:34:26

Putin’s security officers began the war against Ukraine,

00:34:29

and of course,

00:34:32

these days it will be important to discuss the

00:34:35

issue of the

00:34:36

liberation of all peoples In Russia, everyone

00:34:40

who suffers from Putin’s tyranny,

00:34:43

in fact, these guys are trying

00:34:45

to repeat the moves of some forces within the CPSU of the

00:34:48

second half of the 80s, which

00:34:50

gained political capital from Ul

00:34:52

more and more and privileges and Freedom for the

00:34:55

regional elites, only it is obvious that the

00:34:57

political benefits here never

00:35:00

exceed the social ones -economic

00:35:01

damage from disintegration because it

00:35:04

is obvious that splits in Russia, if one

00:35:07

happens, will become, as Oleg Komolov already said, an

00:35:09

economic disaster even

00:35:11

for the regions’ leaders and will also become a

00:35:13

real humanitarian disaster on a

00:35:16

planetary scale; refugees;

00:35:18

permanent military conflicts; a surge in

00:35:20

fundamentalism; arms and

00:35:22

drug trafficking; in general, all the delights lives

00:35:25

that arise in such situations and

00:35:27

which will inevitably become a headache

00:35:30

for the whole world Yes, obviously the regional

00:35:33

policy of Putin’s oligarchic

00:35:34

raw material capitalist system is

00:35:37

wrong, unpromising, detrimental

00:35:39

for the broad masses, but this does not

00:35:42

mean that the normal way out of this

00:35:44

situation should be the dissolution of the

00:35:46

Russian Federation But then

00:35:49

the question arises but it’s good if it’s not so, then How

00:35:51

should regional

00:35:53

policy be structured in Russia? It is obvious that the Soviet

00:35:56

experience With the enhanced development of the regional

00:35:58

economy by building a unified planned

00:36:00

system connecting production in

00:36:02

the regions, this is an extremely important topic and

00:36:05

relevant now, as well as the idea of

00:36:07

building a new society based

00:36:09

on overcoming inequality in democracy

00:36:12

and progress, in essence, if there is a

00:36:14

rotation of personnel in the

00:36:16

administrative apparatus, if

00:36:18

real obstacles are created for the

00:36:20

formation of local stable Elites, then in

00:36:22

this situation the

00:36:25

tendencies towards separatism will be overcome. And of course, the

00:36:27

path to such a degeneration and

00:36:29

reformatting of Russia is inevitably

00:36:31

connected with the economic model roughly

00:36:34

speaking, it is necessary to redirect

00:36:35

resource income to the development of other

00:36:38

sectors of production. But the

00:36:40

establishment of such a model, again,

00:36:42

will inevitably be accompanied by

00:36:44

political upheavals; however, living

00:36:46

in the Comfort Zone will not work anyway; the

00:36:49

cruel reality of deepening

00:36:50

imperialist contradictions; war will

00:36:53

inevitably suck the masses into the

00:36:56

whirlpool of political processes; will

00:36:58

these masses become political force and the

00:37:00

mobilized Soldiers with the new

00:37:02

revolutionary Petrograd garrison

00:37:04

depend on themselves. Summarizing

00:37:07

the above, we can state the fact that

00:37:09

Russia is not as fragile as some Westerners are trying

00:37:11

to imagine, and some Westerners are our

00:37:14

guardians; economic and even

00:37:17

foreign policy factors are

00:37:19

really holding back the collapse of the country and

00:37:21

therefore the removal of Putin or

00:37:24

even Russia's loss in the war, but this is

00:37:27

not at all a guarantee of the collapse of Russia If you

00:37:30

hear the hysteria And soon we will not see

00:37:32

a film about the collapse of Russia, which is of course

00:37:34

Great, But apparently it is made of [ __ ] and sticks,

00:37:36

so just poke it, of

00:37:38

course it will fall apart, such people are either

00:37:40

fools or manipulators But objectively

00:37:43

there is moments that cannot but

00:37:46

cause concern, first of all,

00:37:47

political moments, but some

00:37:50

socio-economic moments, first

00:37:52

of all, these are regional elites losing

00:37:55

their money, these are private military companies,

00:37:57

local military units, this is

00:38:00

ideological poverty, this is the abyss between

00:38:03

regions, that is, all this can

00:38:05

someday detonate especially against the

00:38:08

backdrop of a protracted war and the more deeply and

00:38:11

fiercely debilitating the

00:38:14

current military conflict is, the greater

00:38:16

the chances for Russia of certain

00:38:19

territorial losses, while I want to

00:38:21

focus your attention on the fact that the loose

00:38:23

separatism that the authorities have now

00:38:25

has been cultivated by the authorities for a long time and persistently.

00:38:29

Well, to disentangle the consequences of them politics and,

00:38:32

accordingly, the

00:38:33

national people of the Russian

00:38:35

Federation will have to do a lot, but there’s nothing new with you, there

00:38:39

was the channel Messenger of the Storm with the support of

00:38:41

Oleg Komolov from the channel simple numbers

00:38:43

subscribe to us subscribe to

00:38:45

them the link will be in the description Put your

00:38:47

finger up write many, many

00:38:49

comments about what you think about the

00:38:51

prospects for the collapse of the Russian

00:38:53

Federation and until new meetings

Description:

Разговоры о скором распаде России снова вошли в мэйнстрим. Российские, украинские, западные политики и политологи наперебой вещают (каждый со своего ракурса) о перспективах развала страны. Но реально ли это? Какие есть факторы, сподвигающие Россию к распаду, и наоборот - серьёзно его сдерживающие? Об этом смотрите в новом ролике Андрея Рудого при участии экономиста и члена коллектива канала Простые числа Олега Комолова. P.S. Друзья, на фоне происходящих событий YouTube отменил монетизацию роликов в России - поэтому ваша поддержка пожертвованиями актуальна как никогда. Благодарим подписчиков за поддержку канала. Выход следующих видео также зависит от вас! Номер карты Сбербанка: 4276 4200 4927 7147 Юмани: https://yoomoney.ru/to/410014236181993 Поддержка на постоянной основе через Boosty https://boosty.to/vestnikburi ============================== Новый Telergram-канал: https://t.me/ru_doy Ютуб-канал "Простых чисел" https://www.youtube.com/c/%D0%9F%D1%80%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8B%D0%B5%D1%87%D0%B8%D1%81%D0%BB%D0%B02019 Вестник бури. Сайт: https://vestnikburi.com/ ВК: https://vk.com/vestnikburi FB: https://www.facebook.com/unsupportedbrowser Андрей Рудой. ВК: https://vk.com/rudoy_av Instagram: https://www.facebook.com/unsupportedbrowser Twitter: https://twitter.com/RudoyA1 Алексей Ливанов (монтаж видео). ВК: https://vk.com/heisenbergumret Радуга Гегеля (обложка): https://vk.com/hegels.rainbow ======================================= Ролик про Чечню: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R3HtX_um2mY&t=2378s Тайм-коды: 0:00 - Введение. Важные люди о готовящемся распаде России 3:51 - Призывы 4:17 - Спорные территории России и её "сателлиты" 6:50 - Есть ли предпосылки к распаду России? 7:35 - Олег Комолов о том, есть ли экономические предпосылки к распаду? 11:50 - Бедность регионов как защита от сепаратизма 19:40 - У власти всё меньше денег для подкупа региональных элит 23:17 - Рост недовольства Москвой. Неравенство регионов 24:10 - Политические риски распада России 30:10 - Какие регионы России жизнеспособны сами по себе? 33:50 - Либералы и "деколонизация" 35:50 - Как выстраивать региональную политику? 37:05 - Итоги. Так ли хрупка Россия?

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