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Russian
00:00:11
we teach food from the trading race neospoin00:00:14
on stretching out our broadcasts press Lukashuk00:00:17
with you to the conscience and the most blasphemous well and how00:00:20
we obliged the father of the Magaranka with the banners at the studio00:00:24
cut the shakans for a long time by you and us00:00:27
political analyst for distant Artyom00:00:30
shayban Good afternoon Artyom Good afternoon I00:00:33
got something Well, what about you, could you give00:00:36
dachas and rumors00:00:39
people are already approaching them?00:00:44
Come for a reason Come00:00:46
Subscribe and popershina Telegram00:00:49
Artem’s channel vermetic may not be00:00:52
so often some00:00:56
dill drowning Well, along the way you will00:00:59
go, having read all the pistons on00:01:02
Artem’s Telegram channel Shrayman Don't00:01:04
forget to subscribe to the Youtube channel I'm00:01:07
very glad we love you for all the food and00:01:10
we're enjoying your food and I see I'm getting a00:01:13
test right from our glidach00:01:16
and F is trying to figure out what's wrong with the recognition of the00:01:20
Korenovsky regiment as a legitimate00:01:22
representative of Belarus00:01:25
and I wanted to ask this recognition here are the00:01:28
accompaniments at the very right of the official,00:01:31
let’s say not Alexei Goncharenko Kirovnik00:01:35
Mish of the factional group for a democratic00:01:38
Belarus of the Supreme Radek with a line00:01:40
in general with shelves with spacers of the00:01:42
Korenovsk regiment And no one even a niche officer00:01:45
said that Here is its merging But00:01:47
nevertheless the situation itself is I saw a statement00:01:49
about this only from Tikhanovsky,00:01:57
who am I paid for in this situation?00:02:01
I did not see00:02:04
any confirmation from the Ukrainian00:02:05
side, firstly, and secondly, it’s00:02:07
not even a committee. The deputy group00:02:10
is not at all authorized on behalf of the00:02:11
state to recognize someone as a00:02:14
legitimate representative.00:02:16
and so on,00:02:18
and so I think that around this00:02:21
meeting in general there is more hype than the00:02:23
essence, the00:02:25
deputies met with the fighters,00:02:26
they talked, they00:02:29
provided their support,00:02:31
how parallel was00:02:34
Kovalevsky and a representative of Tikhanovskaya in Kiev00:02:36
and also met at different levels, it’s00:02:38
just that not all the meetings, as far as I know,00:02:40
were public and00:02:42
I see no reason here to say00:02:45
that Ukraine as a state,00:02:47
because there were 10 deputies there,00:02:49
went somewhere, or how many of them were there, took and00:02:52
chose Korenovsky’s gender as a legitimate00:02:54
representative of someone, that is,00:02:55
nothing has changed among the Ukrainians00:02:58
at all- then the ambassador is sitting in Minsk and I00:03:01
can’t say that Svetlana Tikhanovskaya00:03:03
enjoys some kind of recognition Yes,00:03:05
as a regressive representative,00:03:06
so I would suggest everyone who is very00:03:09
worried about this00:03:10
to calm down a little, nothing significant00:03:13
happened to me, it seems to me Well, yes, accompaniments00:03:15
Because the lord so the city took the blame for the USP, the00:03:18
relatives write everything about what and00:03:22
who elected, I didn’t vote and others00:03:25
write And who is Tikhanovskaya, we are00:03:28
legitimate, we didn’t recognize this00:03:31
situation, even Maxim00:03:34
writes on the air of Svoboda, even if00:03:36
tomorrow you’ll see Alexei Goncharenko about the 11th early00:03:39
we are on air He said that for00:03:42
him,00:03:44
Paul00:03:47
Kalinovsky and Svetlana Tikhanovskaya are legitimate supporters of the Belarusian people.00:03:51
Varta, in principle, don’t get hung up on00:03:53
this whole situation, I definitely wouldn’t00:03:55
focus if such statements00:03:57
began to be made by the Minister of Foreign Affairs,00:03:59
the head of the Administration of Ukraine, the head of the00:04:01
Security Council of Ukraine, the President of Ukraine one00:04:03
could think that yes, there is00:04:05
some kind of change in policy; while we00:04:08
see that the official Ukrainian00:04:10
speakers00:04:17
have a position that is00:04:19
more skeptical in relation to the00:04:22
Belarusian day. forces and the Belarusian00:04:23
people as a whole, there is the position of Arrestovich,00:04:26
there is the position of the head of the National Security and Defense Council Danilov,00:04:30
who speaks absolutely in line with the00:04:32
statements of Belarusian zemekratic00:04:34
politicians that there is a country that is00:04:36
fully or partially occupied there, there is a00:04:38
Belarusian people who00:04:40
are absolutely on a different planet altogether00:04:44
compared to the intentions and actions of00:04:45
Lukashenko, and that is, there is no single00:04:48
position of the Ukrainian bridge bluetta00:04:51
Goncharenko’s position of any other deputies are happy,00:04:52
even the heads of the committee who said00:04:55
that he also doesn’t like Tikhanovskaya for something,00:04:58
even this is the unofficial position of00:05:00
Kiev, this is all just a statement about the00:05:02
main politicians in Belarus, apparently00:05:04
theirs The Belarusian diaspora is not accustomed to the00:05:06
fact that some kind of00:05:08
Ukrainian state system can be00:05:10
so polyphonic. There are many different00:05:12
centers of power of voices00:05:14
and where every Belarusian politician or00:05:18
activist, if desired, of a serious00:05:20
level, can find an interlocutor00:05:22
who recognizes him as a legitimate00:05:24
representative of the Belarusian people. I00:05:25
think that he can zepkola find such00:05:27
friends there and tell me these signs are00:05:29
from me, here is a sick commander from00:05:33
some Lviv ditch recognizes00:05:34
uh a00:05:35
legitimate representative so I would00:05:38
n’t focus on this too much at all,00:05:39
apparently we see what’s happening is interesting with the00:05:41
processor regiments, he’s politicizing00:05:43
I on and, in principle, all Belarusian00:05:45
these00:05:46
paramilitary military structures are being00:05:48
politicized, we see the politicization of gender00:05:50
before, we see now the politicization of the00:05:54
Kalinovsky regiment, before this, the politicization of the regiment is a00:05:55
pursuit because the sausages went into politics00:05:58
from this unit. This is an interesting00:06:01
process because it is superimposed on the00:06:02
counter process of the militarization of00:06:05
democratic forces which They are00:06:07
now preparing for the collapse of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth and so on. That00:06:09
is, there is such a convergence of the00:06:11
military wing and the political00:06:13
wing, they are somehow something something similar.00:06:16
Maybe they are not starting00:06:17
to compete, maybe they are cooperating,00:06:19
this will already manifest itself in dynamics. This is00:06:21
more interesting, but we are fine We’re getting00:06:24
to the point that, as you say, the00:06:26
political wing may be00:06:28
militarizing, we think, Well,00:06:30
everything is fine there, the fist is to blame for the security forces being there. I’m00:06:34
not saying that everyone thinks00:06:35
differently. Well, more like personally, that in00:06:39
principle this is a normal process00:06:41
situation The Belarusian people have come to understand00:06:44
that these issues I don’t know what the00:06:47
majority and even the majority of the00:06:48
democratic00:06:50
democratic electorate thinks according to a recent00:06:52
study of the Belarusian00:06:53
change tracker of which I am a part,00:06:55
including the fact that indeed the00:06:57
majority of supporters of the protest,00:07:00
the majority of opponents of the authorities, now,00:07:02
unlike 2020, would support the00:07:04
use of force Lukashenko’s removal from power and00:07:06
This is a new factor, does this mean that these00:07:09
people completely and completely share the entire00:07:11
agenda of Tikhanov’s cabinet or00:07:13
share ideas? We see that Paul00:07:15
Korenovsky will liberate Belarus; we do00:07:17
n’t know; this is not the same thing, but00:07:19
the normalization of forceful scenarios for solving00:07:21
the problem. It happened this is true. It00:07:23
happened on both sides. In my opinion, it’s00:07:24
obvious that the Belarusian government also does not00:07:26
stand on ceremony when it comes to the use of00:07:29
force against opponents, that is, let’s say,00:07:31
the militarization of Belarusian politics00:07:33
has happened. This is a given. I’m not sure that00:07:34
everyone is happy about this and that everyone, you know, is directly00:07:38
advocating. Let’s arrange it quickly00:07:39
some semblance of the Civil War00:07:41
or something like that. Well, on Kolka, here is the00:07:44
politicization of military units in the00:07:47
same Korenovsk regiment. Well, this is00:07:49
not something that is normal, the devil can be00:07:52
normal, as far as I am relevant for00:07:54
today00:07:55
[music]00:07:57
I think that Well, then This is happening, it means00:08:00
it’s called if the stars light up,00:08:02
someone needs it, and it means some kind of00:08:05
request has matured. And that means that people,00:08:07
at least on the fronts of the Belarusians00:08:10
who are fighting there, have some kind of00:08:12
disappointment or dissatisfaction, or00:08:14
even a reluctance to associate themselves with00:08:15
existing political structures;00:08:17
they create their own. they are nominating their00:08:19
representatives,00:08:21
this is also a symptom, it’s interesting that00:08:24
in our spectrum of Belarusian,00:08:26
let’s say, anti-regime forces, there are00:08:28
already such Well, one might say, extremely00:08:31
militaristic views for which00:08:33
Tikhonovskaya is a00:08:35
scarecrow for propaganda in terms of supporting00:08:37
terrorists and militants, for them she is00:08:39
too soft, we see the emergence here00:08:41
such a wing, how normal is this, all00:08:44
these are symptoms of an absolutely abnormal00:08:46
situation in Belarusian society, if in00:08:48
our Belarusian society, on both sides,00:08:50
politics is conducted in the language of a rifle. This is00:08:53
not normal, but this is natural, the00:08:55
current situation, that is, I don’t know00:08:58
if I’m answering your question Yes, but it00:09:01
seems to me that in a situation of a war, b00:09:03
two years of severe repression in00:09:05
Belarus itself. This would not be enough, it00:09:07
would be inevitable. Nothing good And00:09:09
there is nothing normal in this, but in00:09:12
other countries they don’t take military power; in00:09:15
normal countries, they perceive the military as00:09:17
military affairs; they are politics. This means00:09:18
that what -it’s not normal with ours, well,00:09:22
it’s obvious to everyone that it’s not normal. Yes, ours with our00:09:24
political system. Well, this is his way00:09:25
and this symptom. What does this indicate? I mean,00:09:29
remember, I’ll sing I didn’t00:09:33
Russify you No,00:09:35
it looks like I’m just grinding from the field00:09:38
with a military expert where we went home00:09:41
in gray in Russian And I interrupted00:09:43
on Belorusskaya it’s still the other way around00:09:45
Ole e collie rut make your words00:09:49
about e caribou there were initiatives I will announce00:09:54
e at home the Belarusian e00:09:57
trike Ios showed koreyusse People00:09:59
come out and walk00:10:01
around Tikhanovskaya’s office with with such00:10:04
initiatives it was overthrown about tattered00:10:07
symptoms for the same office for the00:10:09
same Tikhanovskaya up to 1 situation00:10:10
found symptoms about what to sit for the00:10:13
office for the office for the office for00:10:16
Tikhonovskaya for shoes here the00:10:18
democratic forces are not at the front00:10:21
Well, let’s say the office today is00:10:23
still the center of gravity of these forces,00:10:25
so we should probably talk about it ah00:10:26
for the cabinet - This means that00:10:29
despite the obvious tilt towards00:10:31
militarization, even some kind of00:10:33
radicalization in August and the unification of00:10:36
part of such forces under their wing ah, let00:10:39
me remind you, they entered in opposition00:10:41
Boyle, also not the00:10:44
most let's say, vegetarian00:10:47
structure joined the coalition that created the cabinet, but the cohaschik,00:10:50
too, despite all this, they could not,00:10:52
and all the supporters of the force scenario and00:10:56
supporters of the use of force to solve00:10:58
political problems They could not00:11:01
to consolidate everyone Well, this means00:11:03
that the fuse was insufficient for this,00:11:07
I don’t know whether it will work out or not, this is a difficult00:11:10
question for me. It depends. Probably on00:11:12
some diplomatic talents of people like the00:11:13
hacker, who apparently00:11:15
communicate directly with00:11:17
volunteers with volunteers. It’s more accurate on00:11:19
the ground, it’s hard to say, but I also understand00:11:23
that people exist in completely different00:11:26
realities. I mean people who00:11:29
fight in the trenches there or simply live even00:11:31
in Kiev, who lead some00:11:32
units of Belarusians, they have the same00:11:34
group of problems, yes, they live in a state00:11:36
of war, including their mentality of war but00:11:39
nevertheless, 99% of what00:11:43
Tikhanov’s cabinet is doing is00:11:45
diplomacy, one way or another, it could00:11:47
be fan-raising, looking for money for00:11:49
its existence or there for the departure of00:11:51
civil society, or00:11:53
international contacts, contacts with00:11:56
all sorts of other groups, a passport doesn’t matter.00:11:57
This is all for diplomatic efforts Well,00:12:00
there is when you are engaged in diplomacy 9000:12:02
percent of your time, then you have one00:12:04
mindset; when you are engaged in war 9000:12:06
percent of the time, then a different mindset and00:12:08
not so simple, I understand why it is not so00:12:10
easy to reduce it to one denominator and the00:12:13
cabinet was such an attempt, I think to a00:12:14
large extent it became but not00:12:16
completely00:12:18
so they were sherah of food for00:12:23
good years. I will later find the most teak00:12:26
food about00:12:28
single-skinned ones, interfering with Belarusians, Ukrainians,00:12:32
a report, this word from one side about the00:12:35
agility of a military man, from the other00:12:38
side on the territory of Ukraine, from the00:12:41
other side a bun about the screws of the blow from the side of00:12:44
Ukraine on Belarusian territory under their00:12:47
sites where the Russians will stock up,00:12:51
all this on the Kolka is probable and one and the00:12:55
other,00:12:56
I mean, yes, I read your article, I00:12:59
know that it’s hard to predict from the second, let’s00:13:01
start with the second. I think that with an intimate blow from00:13:03
Ukraine and Belarus is unlikely00:13:04
Because because for Ukraine there is00:13:06
no urgent need to create a00:13:09
Third Front for ourselves, and that is, the Eastern00:13:11
Front is the Southern Front, it is obvious that00:13:13
Ukrainian reserves are not infinite and, with00:13:16
their own hands, force the situation in00:13:19
which a third Ukraine will open,00:13:20
all Ukrainian officials do not want to say this,00:13:22
even though00:13:24
they Lukashenko's relations there have also00:13:26
deteriorated very much. Yes, now there is no00:13:28
trust in him there, so it is unlikely that00:13:30
this will happen before Belarus itself00:13:32
enters the war. If this does not happen,00:13:33
then I don’t see a situation in which Ukraine00:13:36
will push,00:13:38
as for the00:13:42
general prospects for an attack involving the00:13:46
Belarusian army from the territory of Belarus,00:13:48
well,00:13:49
in these matters I can no longer00:13:52
rely on the statement of Minsk00:13:53
Moscow, it all doesn’t matter now,00:13:55
everything they say They said in February,00:13:57
they are now saying the same thing,00:13:59
they can either reduce their00:14:02
intentions by saying that no, no We are not00:14:04
doing anything And this is all for defense, they00:14:06
can even exaggerate what they are doing,00:14:08
for example, there is no evidence that the00:14:10
170 tanks00:14:11
that the barons of Belarus actually called in, many00:14:13
experts record the opposite process,00:14:15
and they only observe the tanks leaving. And00:14:17
all sorts of fuel tankers and trucks are driving in.00:14:19
just to supply00:14:20
personnel And no one has seen the columns of tanks00:14:22
that enter Belarus, they can00:14:24
simply be engaged in intimidating the West and00:14:26
Ukraine by creating here such a point of00:14:29
tension for Ukraine in order to tighten up00:14:31
its reserves, so their words do not00:14:34
matter, by and large, everything that they00:14:36
announce and we need to look at the facts,00:14:40
not a single intelligence service in the world, not a single00:14:42
military-political leadership of a00:14:44
Western country or Ukraine tells us00:14:47
that Belarus is preparing from a military point of00:14:49
view for an attack, and Wide00:14:52
mobilization has not yet recorded these00:14:54
targeted calls for some kind of agenda00:14:57
mobilization exercises They are not yet00:14:59
very different from everything that Minsk00:15:01
has been doing for the last 8 months. Therefore, there is not a00:15:04
single sign on earth that the00:15:06
Belarusian army is really00:15:08
preparing for something. I am not ready to00:15:09
conclude that the chances of this have increased,00:15:11
and given that the Russian group,00:15:14
if it greatly exceeds these 900000:15:16
that Minsk announced, it will be00:15:18
noticeable, it will be seen by satellites, it will be seen by an00:15:20
observer on the ground, we will see it somewhere00:15:23
else,00:15:25
this hasn’t happened yet. We can’t00:15:27
do that either. Therefore, I can say very carefully here00:15:29
We don’t see such signs,00:15:31
which means in my assessments of this situation,00:15:33
nothing changes When we see00:15:35
something something abnormal in the behavior of the00:15:38
Belarusian military leadership, this is00:15:40
really a massive call for00:15:42
reservists, really moving the00:15:43
west to the south of the West of Belarus in the south of00:15:46
Belarus of some shock units,00:15:49
something similar to some coordination00:15:51
between Belarusian Russian00:15:53
units, some kind of arrival of00:15:54
heavy equipment back to Belarus,00:15:57
delivery of some more serious00:15:59
Russian units, they were just mobilized,00:16:01
these pot-bellied, bearded men of different00:16:03
ages, who were seen in the videos and in the00:16:05
photos circulated, none of this00:16:08
yet, many people have Faith that00:16:11
they have insiders or some real00:16:12
sites. They are probably more competent00:16:15
to talk about00:16:16
what is being prepared and where the00:16:19
attack is being prepared from in Belarus. I00:16:21
don’t have such insights,00:16:22
after all, this is a hoax mobilization00:16:25
about what kind of [ __ ] it seems at once. Well, sometimes00:16:29
we are not the staff we can’t pay in installments00:16:31
Specifically say that there is00:16:32
mobilization not mobilization Havana I’m00:16:35
low-key why is it shy of00:16:40
explanations I can’t get into the head of00:16:42
Lukashenko or the minister of defense and the00:16:44
KGB head uh this may have many00:16:48
explanations this may have the first00:16:49
explanation that the Belarusian government00:16:51
starting in February, they conduct00:16:54
mobilization exercises every month, either in the Gomel00:16:56
region or the Brest region or in Minsk or else.00:16:58
Yes, if I were in Belarus now I wouldn’t00:17:01
be in prison. For example, as a reserve officer, I would be00:17:02
called up for these endless trips to00:17:05
the military registration and enlistment office regularly because people like00:17:07
me are constantly being pulled people who have passed00:17:10
military departments and served in the reserves and so on and so00:17:11
on.00:17:14
There is another explanation that all this is00:17:17
part of a common effort together with the Russian00:17:23
arrival of Russian uh troops along with00:17:25
the throwing of anti-terrorist00:17:27
rhetoric of all this exercises then00:17:30
the liberation of Yelsk from terrorists that00:17:32
they Where are they there trained in the south that00:17:35
this is all part of escalating the threat in order to00:17:38
create00:17:39
in Ukraine the feeling that what if there is an attack,00:17:41
let’s move some reserves to the00:17:43
north of Ukraine. Here they are. I think they00:17:46
are working for this now, first of all,00:17:48
they may be working for something else00:17:50
This is exactly what they are working on, these are the efforts we00:17:52
see. We see a briefing for military00:17:54
attaches, the Minister of the Ministry of Defense,00:17:56
tweets in English to a friend, we see00:18:00
this is all very menacing rhetoric. It00:18:03
seems to me that you are strongly planning to00:18:05
do something, something like this, the aggressiveness of the00:18:08
Belarusian territory. it’s in00:18:10
your interests not to advertise it00:18:14
so clearly. And if you flaunt it,00:18:16
if you threaten, if you conduct00:18:18
some kind of exercises in parallel there, then you00:18:20
introduce a counter-terrorist00:18:22
operation regime, or you don’t, then these may be00:18:24
demonstration purposes, but I can’t,00:18:27
you know, put a lot of money on this is my00:18:29
conclusion. It’s impossible to know exactly what they00:18:32
want. Especially considering that Minsk00:18:35
no longer has absolute military sovereignty. We00:18:37
first of all need to ask the question:00:18:38
What does Vladimir Putin want? What is he00:18:40
trying to achieve00:18:42
and based on his actions, monitor and draw00:18:46
conclusions about what may be happening in There are00:18:49
no massive transfers of Russian troops in Belarus yet. Belarus doesn’t have any00:18:51
such attempts there, you use several00:18:55
thousand Russian mobs of the Belarusian00:18:56
army to storm the northern Ukrainian border,00:18:58
which is mined.00:19:01
But this is an interesting type of suicide, but I do00:19:04
n’t think that it will give anything, even00:19:07
you know the February offensive of Russia.00:19:09
If we proceed from those of that Faith that00:19:12
was in Moscow that Ukrainians are not a people00:19:14
who they are waiting for liberation, the Ukrainian00:19:17
authorities will run away, then based on this Faith, it00:19:20
could succeed; this Faith was absolutely00:19:21
absurd, but at least if you live in this00:19:25
absurdity and are not sure that you can00:19:26
think that your 200 thousands of soldiers are enough00:19:28
to capture Kiev But now it’s00:19:31
obvious to everyone that it’s now obvious to everyone00:19:33
that the border is mined, that the bridges00:19:35
are blown up, that Ukrainian troops are standing there00:19:36
waiting.00:19:38
Well, it will be easy if such00:19:41
forces that are still assembled in Belarus00:19:42
rush somewhere, even after mobilizing00:19:45
what something of the Belarusians Although I think that00:19:46
the mobilization of Belarus will turn out even worse00:19:49
than in Russia, well, so far00:19:53
I haven’t noticed any suicidal tendencies for Lukashenko,00:19:56
maybe they will appear now while there are00:19:58
no signs of this, the topic of00:20:01
the radicalization of the community has00:20:04
narrowly left Our gredasheva in the test is00:20:08
coming off at a time in the first maybe00:20:11
Ladu has a rumored buypol millet plan peramogu00:20:15
albo Kalinovtsy prasa I’ll wash it00:20:17
in hunting at Belarus toy and sit00:20:21
at the hourly hour00:20:23
It seems to me that they should stop living in the00:20:27
world of some pink00:20:28
fighting Ponies and think that00:20:31
someone now has real power00:20:35
resources for that to take and00:20:36
magically00:20:38
overthrow the Belarusian regime, supported by00:20:41
Russian troops, the00:20:43
boypol launches its plan first,00:20:46
denounces its launch only the moment00:20:47
when the regime is already cracking, the00:20:49
moment has begun when there will already be destabilization, there00:20:51
will already be people on the street they at the moment00:20:54
when they just want to join00:20:56
Kalinouski’s regiment several hundred people00:20:59
you you know, successful operations of a couple of hundred00:21:01
people or three hundred people to00:21:03
overthrow the regime, or maybe Ukraine is00:21:05
already ready to invade Belarus, do00:21:07
it together, none of this No, let's00:21:09
stop believing in fairy tales until the situation00:21:12
radically changes on00:21:14
earthBelarus00:21:17
like this Well, maybe it won't00:21:20
then the DZ tries to turn around the riot police Alfa00:21:24
Almaz SSO vv-1000 acquired people with00:21:27
equipment that will shoot without the00:21:30
slightest managed that everything heals that the00:21:33
power scenario can be perkhov not00:21:39
everything is00:21:40
just more than before, many more00:21:42
people than before believe that this is00:21:44
possible and, or rather, that it is not optimally,00:21:46
apparently people think that00:21:52
they overestimate the forces00:21:54
on their side. And secondly,00:21:56
maybe they think. Many people00:21:58
think. So it’s not like it’s00:22:00
one hundred percent of the reality that00:22:02
Alpha and other riot police shoot when00:22:05
they have an order to shoot if the system00:22:07
for some reason it is00:22:08
destabilized and orders are not00:22:10
carried out or not given, then there are00:22:12
situations when it’s not that they come00:22:15
to someone’s side there, they don’t just stay00:22:17
on the sidelines, they stay in the barracks and so00:22:19
on. That is,00:22:20
in the twentieth year we saw several00:22:22
days when in fact, Minsk was00:22:26
visually there were no security forces in it, they00:22:28
hid somewhere in mid-00:22:30
August then they returned and therefore also the00:22:33
Ukrainian revolution in the fourteenth00:22:34
year won, just the Verkhovna Rada there00:22:37
ordered00:22:38
the special forces of the military to return to the00:22:40
barracks And that’s all And after that the Maidan00:22:41
won therefore from different political00:22:45
alignments may result from different00:22:47
abilities of the regime to extinguish all forces. Yes,00:22:50
if the regime itself, as a00:22:54
vertical system, has ceased to be stable,00:22:55
has ceased to be as vertical, if the00:22:57
signals do not go from top to bottom, if00:22:59
the Generals do not answer the phone instead of00:23:01
picking them up and selling them, that’s all00:23:03
it turns out that how many bayonets you have there00:23:05
will not be of secondary importance.00:23:07
But if the regime is monolithic, if the regime is strong,00:23:09
then even if it is simply not so strong00:23:12
as the power core clearly carries out all00:23:15
orders and the Duma does not hesitate, then00:23:17
we see the situation in Venezuela where How many00:23:20
years nothing is changing anymore Despite00:23:23
the fact that it is obvious that the00:23:24
economic00:23:26
and political system was completely bankrupt and the legitimacy was not00:23:29
stupid and the army was simply enough00:23:31
and the months-long00:23:33
protests of millions did not lead to anything because the00:23:35
security forces remained on the side of Maduro, it’s the00:23:37
same story And here Russia also seems to have not00:23:39
completely ended as a military force And00:23:41
therefore Yes, I share some00:23:45
sentiments in the survey, but if we talk about00:23:47
why some people believe in the00:23:49
power scenario I think that they don’t believe in00:23:51
it right now tomorrow And as for00:23:54
some kind of denouement more a long crisis00:23:56
that by that time may begin for00:23:58
you Artyom corrects what can be00:24:01
found cannot be knees with several hundred to00:24:03
take00:24:05
the regime that leads to the Cube00:24:09
such will jump write to Artyom00:24:14
such feats if it is00:24:16
something amorphous that the00:24:19
security forces do not follow orders or00:24:22
break away in favor rebels there yes00:24:25
Che Guevara this is or rather00:24:27
del Castro this is such an example Yes Fidel00:24:30
Castro This is an example when what I am00:24:32
talking about the system ceased to be able to00:24:35
control its power structures00:24:37
the Bolsheviks the same example further whiskey00:24:40
coup how many of them were there these00:24:41
sailors in St. Petersburg Yes this is the Red00:24:42
The guard may be several thousand00:24:43
people. Well, it’s also not a huge force,00:24:46
however, a complete breakdown of morale and fighting00:24:48
spirit in the00:24:49
imperial Russian a-a troops and all00:24:53
this was enough. But about this I’m saying00:24:56
that for this to happen, a00:24:58
crisis of the political system must first happen.00:24:59
and then the00:25:01
seizure of power begins by several hundred00:25:04
fighters. It seems to me that many in Belarus00:25:06
and outside Belarus. Well, in such a00:25:09
democratic Belarusian community they believe that the00:25:11
second can be overcome without the first, that00:25:13
you can simply launch the plan of the first with a click00:25:15
and the entire insufficient house00:25:17
will crumble. So it doesn’t work, that’s by the way It00:25:19
seems to me that the Bypolovites understand before the00:25:22
plan pirogo through the fault of douching the snuffbox plan00:25:25
I don’t necessarily need PLANT poker with00:25:28
maybe the finale of this whole thing,00:25:29
but rather, something should work00:25:33
that will instill in the top officials00:25:37
doubts about the00:25:39
survival of this regime, that is, people00:25:41
should begin to doubt and weigh00:25:42
their risks accordingly,00:25:44
you can say that such bags were filed in these00:25:47
maybe carriages to look and00:25:51
listen that the slave there for information is not00:25:54
open with such statements with activities, the00:25:56
commission of the KGB-Terrier-Tel to the00:25:59
foreman of the council without guardianship in Lvovich00:26:02
was surrendered. We have one00:26:05
for everyone topics and he is the only one in May00:26:08
who shows the right in general, the rest To be silent is00:26:10
wrong Mr. Well, it’s all not so if you just00:26:11
look at00:26:12
people who were monitoring the belts on the topic of00:26:15
which officials are more often compensated And in00:26:17
fact, the second second after Lukashenko,00:26:19
Kochanov, has been quite stable for00:26:22
many years there already, as far as I understand, at00:26:24
least for the past year I saw00:26:26
such data And in some months, because of00:26:29
the war, it is obvious that the security forces will00:26:30
come out, maybe ahead Yes, but in00:26:32
general there are people, there are speakers who are00:26:35
allowed to be public Makei Kochanova00:26:37
and Volfovich in recent months in Lvovich00:26:40
became more active And therefore, this is not00:26:43
something something very new, in00:26:46
Russia now there is an interesting process happening, in the sense of00:26:48
where it began to be00:26:50
allowed to criticize each other, yes. Or00:26:52
rather, they became emboldened because some people00:26:54
like Kadyrov Prigozhin who began to00:26:56
allow themselves to criticize others and00:26:58
the Ministry of Defense and take on military00:27:01
tasks, we’ll go, we’ll take a city like00:27:03
this in Belarus. So far, there is no way for them00:27:05
to perform functions that would00:27:07
contradict each other or take00:27:08
each other’s bread, criticize each other.00:27:10
They are still in Belarus and speak and00:27:12
work in unison. That’s why I here there are no00:27:14
big00:27:16
preconditions or signs of a split or00:27:19
anything like that, I don’t see David00:27:22
politics are more welcome a little Artyom in your00:27:25
broadcasts of the Patriot leaders Artyom is in uniform we00:27:28
remember them a photo from the haze from the training camp00:27:31
drawing out the military theme of the swamp You have00:27:35
Artyom added to the contact What00:27:37
could be Lukashenko's accompaniment broadly? Beliefs00:27:41
about the fact that they are preparing an attack on Belarus00:27:44
with justification could be such and00:27:47
that at the same time the Truth to believe in this is one of the00:27:50
versions Yes, it seems to me that00:27:51
my friend Pasha and00:27:53
Linkin, a former diplomat, is now an analyst, expressed here before me.00:27:56
He and I often joke with each other00:27:59
about the fact that we voice the00:28:00
same thoughts somewhere in parallel,00:28:01
so I’m doing this for the first time to say that00:28:03
he was the first to say so as not to steal00:28:06
his laurels. Yes, I think that this is one of the00:28:10
Quite real hypotheses we often00:28:12
imagine We think that this is our perception,00:28:16
but this chessboard is regional.00:28:18
Where someone can attack someone,00:28:20
cannot attack someone, someone has so many resources,00:28:22
these are the intentions. Why,00:28:25
Lukashenko has the same idea about this, that00:28:27
we are putting our heads on00:28:29
Lukashenko’s shoulders, he’s just bad Yes, and00:28:31
that’s why he draws Bad conclusions from this, but00:28:33
in general, he sees reality, and00:28:34
this is a mistake. Lukashenko sees reality00:28:36
completely differently from how he sees it, he00:28:38
may well believe that any statement00:28:40
by Azarov is not a statement by Azarov, it’s a00:28:43
statement by the head of the Polish special services that00:28:45
this is when he sees that Azarov is a sugar worker,00:28:49
something has become more active, and that means00:28:51
in Ukraine there is talk00:28:54
that we will liberate Belarus and put our own there.00:28:56
Yes, this means that all this can be00:28:57
part of one Polish-Ukrainian plan00:28:59
Build a new Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth Let00:29:02
Lukashenko be overthrown there to capture00:29:03
some cities that they themselves, these00:29:06
Baypolovites and so on, the Tikhanovskys00:29:08
wouldn’t say this. Which means they’re all00:29:11
preparing for something, since00:29:12
they’re preparing for something. So we need to forestall them. So we00:29:14
need to somehow show strength,00:29:16
show determination show that we00:29:18
will not bend and we are ready, we will meet you,00:29:20
this may well be a working real00:29:22
version and they are not talking about the fact that00:29:24
Lukashenko is completely independent in00:29:26
making decisions on inviting00:29:28
Russian troops. No, I don’t think that00:29:30
everything would have worked here only with a click from00:29:33
Lukashenko, something like I need it, I’m afraid00:29:35
Give me 10,000 soldiers I think in a00:29:37
war situation it doesn’t work like that, he00:29:38
doesn’t have that much subjectivity and therefore there is some kind of00:29:40
interest in Russia. Here, too, there is00:29:41
this interest. It seems to me that it is already quite00:29:43
obvious to create a threat to Ukraine from the North,00:29:46
which is what we talked about and pull back its troops and it is00:29:48
also possible, as a hypothesis, to train00:29:50
its mobilized Belarusians, where there00:29:52
are still officers, where there is still enough00:29:54
equipment that is not at war, and these are all00:29:58
hypotheses, they will be tested in00:30:00
the process, we will see Yes, because it is00:30:01
happening at the Belarusian training grounds,00:30:03
well What hypotheses will be confirmed But then that00:30:07
Lukashenko believes that all this is big,00:30:09
all the activities of the opposition and00:30:13
Kalinovsky’s regiments, this is all the machinations of the intelligence services00:30:15
of the West, I have zero doubts about this, that00:30:17
this is not rhetoric, and00:30:19
officials at a lower level believe in this, and Lukashenko definitely00:30:21
believes in this, especially considering how his00:30:23
picture of the world is is formed not only by its00:30:26
own propaganda, but certainly by the reports of00:30:28
its own KGB intelligence services and so on,00:30:30
which think with the same paradigm.00:30:32
Anyone who has been interrogated by the KGB00:30:35
will tell you that all the questions are tilted towards00:30:38
who you who coordinated you,00:30:40
who told you to organize such00:30:42
marches like this networks Who Who is the coordinator of00:30:45
your yard activities from abroad00:30:47
They have such a mindset that00:30:49
nothing happens without puppeteers and the00:30:53
Belarusians are being taken away from the platform of a certain kind,00:30:57
well, the00:30:59
fact of subjectivity is that I can00:31:02
make a decision myself, people grew up in the paradigm00:31:04
and worked in the paradigm your entire career00:31:07
Yes, controllability you ordered someone00:31:10
someone did didn’t order didn’t do You00:31:12
gathered a crowd She came to the rally and00:31:14
laid flowers there I don’t know for00:31:16
something to their Lenin on but on00:31:20
Independence Square you didn’t gathered people didn’t00:31:22
come if you have such a perception of the world00:31:24
and you see that tens of thousands are being taken away,00:31:25
well, you can’t imagine that they00:31:28
did it themselves. So somewhere you just00:31:30
don’t see, you don’t immediately understand what00:31:32
was coordinated, organized. So you00:31:33
just need to find these coordinators from00:31:36
I have zero doubts that Lukashenko thinks00:31:38
about the same way, that people of this00:31:41
authoritarian consciousness do not recognize00:31:42
people’s ability to00:31:44
organize horizontally, this is Putin’s main mistake.00:31:45
Why did he bargain in Ukraine and think now00:31:47
we will decapitate this government and everything00:31:49
will fall apart? The person does not understand what00:31:51
Ukraine is. What is civil society.00:31:53
What such a horizontal society is the00:31:54
same with Lukashenko. And if you00:31:57
have been receiving only such information for two years,00:31:58
especially 28 years, but especially the last00:32:01
two years from your KGB there, your father, and00:32:04
so on. But only in this spirit, then00:32:06
naturally you will interpret all all00:32:08
the signals, all all mine glasses as something in00:32:11
preparation for some kind of aggression00:32:13
against Belarus And the most important thing in the00:32:16
situation is Possible escalation if Russia00:32:18
crosses the uh nuclear line if it00:32:21
switches to nuclear blackmail Well,00:32:24
everything will be on the table Yes, and it cannot be said00:32:25
that Belarus will be completely protected from a00:32:28
potential military response00:32:29
from NATO, that is, Lukashenko, of00:32:32
course, this is in these thoughts that there is a00:32:35
plan for the first activity. There is a CIA plan,00:32:38
this is of course more Paranoia than00:32:40
reality, but00:32:42
the idea that Belarus could be00:32:44
drawn into a war in addition to its own will this is not00:32:48
completely divorced from reality the thought00:32:49
is possible00:32:53
Andy Johnson Andy Johnson apparently00:32:57
connected late Before ours before our broadcast,00:32:59
don’t bask in all the love for our00:33:02
Swiss puppeteers Andy Look at the00:33:04
broadcast from the cob to the food on the cont of the00:33:07
legitimacy of the Kalinovsky regiment Artyom has00:33:09
already refused Well, here I’m sacrificing00:33:13
so E that everyone in the circle there is starting00:33:16
from the Belarusians wide and stretching the00:33:19
Ukraine Zelensky bridges in general to the hero with00:33:23
some Puppeteers from Washington from00:33:25
Brussels there are Masons, someone else is attacking with00:33:29
blackbirds from Minsk And with the administration of the00:33:32
Lukashenko regime and the Kremlin00:33:35
there is absolutely no reason why if everything were00:33:36
grown,00:33:38
there is no ability to look at the fact that in00:33:42
fact it works in the opposite00:33:43
direction, that is, often00:33:44
people completely ignore00:33:47
Lukashenko’s subjectivity, it is believed that his every step is00:33:49
exactly his every statement. Everything that he did00:33:52
not Putin ordered is also an00:33:54
exaggeration, you can’t look at00:33:56
things either using the optics of the crooked optics of the00:33:59
same people on Lukashenko, Putin and their00:34:02
supporters Ali Artyom What kind of elk has become00:34:04
from but I don’t know from Lukashenko’s settlement in00:34:08
Belarus If we say that the00:34:10
Military Independence is actually00:34:12
mute, we will say that it is economical and00:34:14
Independence is so here under great00:34:16
food financial institutions00:34:19
in this all these institutions there all this does not00:34:22
lend itself so well And I’m holding back our00:34:26
economists under the00:34:28
jurisdiction of Russia let’s say that00:34:30
they will only stagnate about Russia, this is what00:34:34
I think about all the activities of the Belarusian00:34:36
bureaucracy and in general,00:34:38
including the military Belarusian army Belarusian00:34:40
army Belarusian security services they are not00:34:42
directly subordinate to the Russians00:34:45
I have no evidence of this and everyone00:34:47
who talks about this usually does too, and00:34:49
Lukashenko acts thanks to Russia, this is00:34:53
his choice, this is due to his actions and00:34:58
his choice in the twentieth year he00:35:01
painted himself into this corner and he functions in this corner,00:35:02
but00:35:06
he gives orders to Belarusian officials at various levels. And00:35:09
as for sovereignty,00:35:12
there is still a difference, you know, this is a00:35:15
very philosophical question that operates in00:35:18
very narrow, self-conscious such00:35:20
mornings, but nevertheless, he is still an actor;00:35:30
Putin cannot count on him Lukashenko's00:35:33
absolute00:35:35
pliability and obedience to Lukashenko in00:35:38
matters that are related to the survival of00:35:39
Lukashenko himself and his political power,00:35:41
that is, I think that relatively speaking about the00:35:44
participation of the Belarusian army in the war,00:35:46
one would have to negotiate with Lukashenko and00:35:48
not tell Lukashenko So go and do it, that00:35:51
is, one would have to - to motivate him to00:35:52
do this because this is too00:35:54
existentially important for him the question of00:35:55
the survival of his regime, which is much more important than00:35:58
the desire there to somehow not upset Putin,00:36:00
so some kind of subjectivity00:36:03
remains.00:36:06
tax sphere there in all00:36:10
other economic sectors This is00:36:12
happening more de facto than de jure,00:36:15
that is, de facto Belarus is00:36:18
becoming economically much more tied to00:36:19
Russia and this is perhaps even more important than before the00:36:23
Jura, but from the point of view of integration of the union00:36:26
state of these road maps, there are two00:36:28
not so dramatic videos can be00:36:30
discussed in more depth, but what is much more important and more significant00:36:34
is what is happening with the00:36:36
real reorientation of Belarusian00:36:37
trade and logistics flows. This is00:36:40
much more serious than some pieces of paper00:36:42
that in our latitudes, pieces of paper,00:36:44
they have a very flexible00:36:48
interpretation. Well, so we are up to come twentieth00:36:51
you can 20 another year so skeptically00:36:55
now the ethers with you are staring at Razmova00:36:58
Yes, these cigarettes are signed00:37:00
he said then 32 years ago back in00:37:03
Minsk I told you I think about the00:37:05
same thing, but what is happening on00:37:07
earth with military integration is much more important than the00:37:09
endless empty00:37:11
Road maps that were eventually00:37:14
signed in a drawn-out form that are00:37:16
being implemented now, but this all pales in00:37:19
comparison with the fact that Belarus00:37:20
has turned into a passage yard for the00:37:22
Russian army, which is much more important. I00:37:24
recently wrote this article that I recently wrote on a00:37:25
map, the main conclusion is not00:37:27
about that that00:37:28
both will attack Belarus will not00:37:30
attack Ukraine, but we just don’t know that, yes. Well, it’s00:37:33
much more important that a new reality has been created00:37:34
in which the00:37:36
February troop visits to Belarus,00:37:38
which then became a passageway for an00:37:41
attack on Ukraine, that now it00:37:44
was not an anomaly Now we understand for sure00:37:46
and we see that everything is Belarusian00:37:48
territory, it’s necessary to use it00:37:51
to scare Ukraine, it is necessary to use00:37:54
drones for shelling, allow anything00:37:56
you want. All Belarusian territory is00:37:58
no longer subject to Lukashenko’s subjectivity so00:38:01
that it extends, that’s what’s much00:38:02
more important, and any first ones that he00:38:05
signs there with Mishustin or with someone else,00:38:07
these pieces of paper are all negotiable and00:38:10
many of them. Much of what he signs is00:38:12
reversible, and most importantly, he himself is very00:38:14
talented in not filling out his00:38:17
signed obligations,00:38:18
so I would look in the wrong direction. Well, so is00:38:22
God. But00:38:25
Lukashenka’s setups are there to hide00:38:28
that there are such ulodars here, everyone is00:38:32
accountable to me, yes you can imprison Yes, you00:38:35
can sentence 25 years Ali, here no00:38:37
one is trying to stop you What to do to discourage us in00:38:40
this territory, we see that it’s also with you, it00:38:43
seems to me that it says that there is a Spectrum00:38:44
From complete Independence to the state of the00:38:47
governor of the Russian region,00:38:49
Lukashenko is walking, so he is not yet00:38:52
at the final point, even before the final point00:38:54
he has to walk and walk, but he is gaining there, let’s say00:38:57
so, and some fragments of00:38:59
sovereignty break off along the way and Well,00:39:01
this is all terrible, this is absolutely00:39:03
absolutely the tragic situation makes me happy00:39:06
only that there were other countries and regimes in it00:39:09
in the past, even in our region, the00:39:11
country in which we are sitting now00:39:13
in Poland was also in such a situation and we00:39:16
understand that much of what00:39:17
happens is due to the will of00:39:20
circumstances reversible And therefore I would00:39:24
too Despite the fact that I00:39:26
state there that this is all very tragic00:39:28
and not at all the optimal path of development00:39:31
for Belarus, this is nevertheless not a reason00:39:34
to hang yourself or consider that everything is lost00:39:39
and Belarusian independence is not00:39:42
such an easily chewed construct, you know00:39:45
which just as soon as you sign a00:39:48
piece of paper it will evaporate. There are00:39:51
people who want to live separately and00:39:53
even if we imagine an00:39:54
absolutely terrible scenario of Belarus’ decision of00:39:57
formal sovereignty of the attributes00:39:59
of sovereignty, then I think that this00:40:02
scenario and this catastrophic state00:40:04
will last exactly as long as it00:40:06
exists and in general Well, today00:40:10
or there is a continuation of the current regime00:40:11
in Russia, and if it weakens, Belarus00:40:14
will then be the first region00:40:16
that will jump out again and build an00:40:18
independent state because it is00:40:22
impossible to reset this identity,00:40:24
which has already found its roots in00:40:27
the state, even if in a00:40:29
hostile state in many ways Belarusian00:40:31
identity, nevertheless, people got used00:40:32
to their state with a small surge of00:40:35
national activity and national00:40:37
construction in the 17-18 years of the BNR and then00:40:41
those projects that arose were enough for the00:40:44
Bolsheviks to think about the fact that it00:40:47
seems that the Belarusians should00:40:48
still be given some kind of autonomy00:40:51
And it’s also no coincidence that such events00:40:54
as you know, 30-40 years of Independence,00:40:56
they also leave a mark that00:40:58
cannot be erased simply because00:40:59
some seventy-year-old grandfathers00:41:01
signed some papers,00:41:03
you’ll tell it at a time Artyom, but I’ll just00:41:05
pour a balm on my soul with these00:41:08
words and about warming up with the great that00:41:11
Kalima Zim e recorded a razmov about00:41:14
Belarusian national food and it was00:41:17
closed. Well, national food is00:41:19
not so optimistic. But00:41:21
this book is00:41:23
not so shmat. The Belarusian national00:41:26
idea on the march of Razmolov with Artem00:41:28
Shayban recorded postlyapadeev 9th00:41:31
birth of the twentieth years velmetikava00:41:34
So it’s heaven to be and read00:41:38
Artyom on the bed you treat maxims00:41:41
Close everything between the type of the Belarusian00:41:43
administration tiurad and the lower00:41:45
European Ukraine with our Ukraine It’s00:41:50
hard for me to imagine a00:41:53
situation in which00:41:55
this is the first if we are talking about a00:41:57
situation of war, that is, the first00:42:00
Belarus itself should do this, the Belarusian government00:42:02
will prevent people from escaping from00:42:06
mobilization00:42:07
if this is a war, if this is not a00:42:10
war but just some kind of00:42:12
transformation of Belarus into a complete DPRK, I don’t know,00:42:15
then rather, on the contrary, they will, for00:42:17
humanitarian reasons, accept those00:42:18
who can get out this00:42:20
large open-air concentration camp.00:42:22
Therefore, to be honest, I don’t see such scenarios.00:42:25
Poland and the Baltic countries,00:42:28
which have not yet closed borders with us,00:42:31
they generally showed themselves with00:42:34
rare exceptions in the form of speeches by00:42:36
individual politicians, they showed themselves to be00:42:38
quite good-natured and00:42:41
hospitable for Belarusian politicians00:42:43
refugees and therefore it is00:42:46
difficult for me to imagine what would have to00:42:48
happen for the border to be closed to00:42:50
people, the borders for goods, the Barda00:42:53
trade borders could certainly become one of the00:42:55
next sanctions levels because there is00:42:57
not much left. If Minsk00:42:59
enters the war more actively or the00:43:02
Belarusian territory of Lukashenko, I00:43:04
provide for example deployment of00:43:05
nuclear weapons or something like that, yes,00:43:09
if the West just spreads out a map in front of itself,00:43:11
what else can we do in00:43:13
relation to Belarus in terms of00:43:14
sanctions, then I think that it lasts very00:43:16
few steps left until the Trade embargo,00:43:19
that is, stopping trains from freight00:43:21
trains freight there is transportation and so00:43:23
on. That is, I cannot completely rule out00:43:25
such a closure of the border00:43:27
because we saw at the moment of the peak00:43:29
aggravation of the immigration crisis in00:43:31
November of twenty-one, Poland00:43:34
did this for some time or threatened with00:43:35
this. That is, such an idea is floating around, yes that00:43:38
is, as an instrument,00:43:41
there were problems with the crossing and they threatened that if you00:43:43
don’t remove migrants now within a00:43:45
certain radius, then we will close00:43:47
train traffic and what the Belarusians did within00:43:49
two days was removed. That is, this is like an00:43:52
argument, there is an argument like this, you know, the00:43:54
last00:43:55
sledgehammer so that’s why Well, maybe we’ll00:43:58
come there, it’s quite likely that00:44:00
the leader of the Patriot is trying to you can00:44:03
discern the phenomenon about that embassy of the00:44:06
new Belarus, the tendency to push the00:44:09
legitimacy of the democratic forces into the mind, but I’m like00:44:11
that Of course, on the UAZ, open it, the00:44:14
simplicity of the democratic forces in Brussels00:44:16
from the swamp, for days I00:44:20
can literally just say This is not00:44:22
the only example, but now in Lithuania00:44:24
Tikhanovskaya’s office has proposed revising00:44:27
those who can relax in the sanatorium00:44:29
Belarus, yes, or it’s00:44:31
called Belarus or was Russia, I don’t even know. And the00:44:34
very fact of the meeting of the cabinet with the Polish00:44:37
government in the format was exactly cabinet by00:44:39
cabinet, that is, the meetings were held00:44:41
level as equals with equals And all00:44:44
these are steps on the way to physical00:44:47
recognition of legal recognition, I don’t00:44:49
expect any very tragic events00:44:50
in Belarus. Belarus will be occupied, then00:44:53
perhaps there will be legal recognition of00:44:54
this cabinet00:44:56
before that they will move in small00:44:58
steps towards actual00:45:00
recognition and that’s all this is what I listed and in the00:45:02
question it was called these are the building blocks in00:45:04
this process. Yes, there is actually00:45:07
such a normalization of communication with the cabinet. And I00:45:09
think that, for example, the stapping representative office of00:45:11
Brussels will have a00:45:15
density and level of contacts in Brussels that is00:45:17
much higher than that of the Belarusian00:45:18
embassy00:45:23
statement Well, what about functional e-00:45:26
pasturts new Belarus Now, well,00:45:28
not just you, but there I heard from people00:45:31
who actually tried00:45:32
to work hard on this idea, it’s wildly difficult and this is00:45:35
wildly difficult administratively because it is00:45:37
impossible to00:45:39
solve many problems, the first recognition of00:45:41
this by the whole world of presidents No,00:45:43
there are precedents when passports are issued by00:45:45
international organizations there00:45:47
refugee passports, Nanson passports 10000:45:50
years ago, and so on,00:45:52
there are precedents when countries begin to00:45:55
issue documents there to people deprived of00:45:58
citizenship, this can become00:46:06
refugee passports, and so on. Well, so00:46:09
that an alternative government issues00:46:10
its documents, that there will be security,00:46:13
how to make sure that00:46:15
they are not forged, they are not forged00:46:18
protected from falsification00:46:21
to achieve this recognition00:46:23
in general to establish00:46:25
establish a procedure I don’t know some kind of00:46:29
acceptance into this passport this is citizenship00:46:31
Yes who will Who will authorize who00:46:34
will have the authority to00:46:36
exercise such power yes that is, it00:46:39
must be an elected body of some00:46:40
Belarusian diaspora or who or00:46:42
Tikhanovskaya as her equal cannot00:46:45
appoint a person and someone there, the00:46:47
questions of the legitimacy of this entire00:46:49
process internationally and within the00:46:50
Belarusian one, they are very difficult, not to00:46:53
mention the legal issues. Therefore, I00:46:54
think that given that this is a00:46:57
serious problem: lack of passports, expiration00:46:59
of passports And the solution citizenship now,00:47:01
but this problem is, in principle, solved by00:47:04
existing mechanisms, that is,00:47:06
refugee passports and other documents00:47:08
that can be determined by the countries of residence,00:47:10
rather Poland or two or Poland or00:47:13
Lithuania come up with some kind of solution with00:47:15
their national documents00:47:17
that they will issue in this case00:47:18
to Belarusians than the whole world if a00:47:22
significant number of countries there say, we00:47:24
will change our practice there and begin00:47:27
to recognize you. Therefore, for now I am skeptical00:47:30
in the relationship of the idea. Well, you gave me less.00:47:32
Classic Rabinichakany Alisa Artem, you can see00:47:36
here our ledoshi batshit as an00:47:38
expert in all the mountains there and are trying to00:47:42
subordinate from what about the military00:47:45
the situation in the occupied areas What are the00:47:47
goals I don’t know not an expert on Russia yes And00:47:51
that Timah Chima Andy Johnson I’m blooming00:47:54
Timoxima that the passion of treason00:47:56
will be revealed internal soup investigation of the00:47:59
poor who catches00:48:04
Good question I’m thinking about it myself00:48:09
Yes I think yes the answer is yes Because that’s what’s00:48:13
happening now From the age of 20 to 21,00:48:17
such an interesting00:48:20
fork in the development of the Belarusian nation takes place00:48:22
when a significant part, at least the00:48:24
active part,00:48:26
has a different experience of life in00:48:29
immigration, life in exile, but the00:48:35
active part there has followed its own track, and the active part has gone along the same path. Freedom, the00:48:39
thinking part of the remaining people in00:48:40
Belarus of which there are many, perhaps even00:48:42
more than in exile,00:48:45
and these people, all of us here and00:48:49
they there, by the time of some Liberation of00:48:53
Belarus before democratization, will have years of00:48:56
different experiences that have shaped in00:49:00
many ways their worldview,00:49:02
habits, expectations from the authorities, memory of00:49:06
what it is Belarus,00:49:08
psychological trauma will be different,00:49:10
absolutely00:49:12
possible, some mutual among stupid00:49:15
people, mutual accusations are possible here and there,00:49:17
and therefore I am afraid that such00:49:20
things are possible and we still have to00:49:22
add another layer of people here, too,00:49:24
unfortunately, not a small one, people who have served time and00:49:27
who will always come to prison, this is00:49:28
still the third experience,00:49:31
and I think that some kind of thing, just like now,00:49:34
you know, most Belarusians,00:49:36
most Ukrainians do not participate in the00:49:37
Belarusian-Ukrainian this Twitter00:49:39
[ __ ] Yes, forgive me for these words, but00:49:41
due to the fact that the agenda is filled with00:49:44
several active and not It always seems to smart00:49:47
and emotional people00:49:49
that this is a comprehensive process; this00:49:52
can also happen within00:49:55
Belarusian disputes. Unfortunately,00:49:57
loud complaints to each other. Yes, you00:50:00
sat there while you were safe, we00:50:02
suffered here so that Yes, you suffered here. Yes, we00:50:03
suffered in prison, yes, that is,00:50:05
unfortunately, these things can happen I00:50:07
just hope that there will be enough collective00:50:09
wisdom00:50:11
for00:50:13
at least the public space to be00:50:15
dominated by non-emotional and00:50:17
conciliatory voices, rather they are00:50:20
schismatic because the00:50:22
whole people will have to be sewn together, especially since it would be00:50:25
very00:50:27
lousy if00:50:30
chasms appeared within part of it too00:50:32
about the democratic00:50:34
Maria Smirnova Will missiles fly00:50:38
to Minsk? But this could be a drawn out topic00:50:41
that Yuri Romanenko posted on Facebook,00:50:44
who wrote about the fact that the hobbit is already here00:50:47
with the association with the hidden00:50:49
Belarusians, these with the Lukashenians, Ale and00:50:52
Trebova mauled and let’s get dirty with the cops, their00:50:55
children ran around I’m running around our bomb boxes,00:50:57
so this is00:51:00
the maxim00:51:02
Well, so far, Ukraine knows there is no such00:51:04
weapon that would finish off Minsk, they have it in00:51:07
Mogilev, that’s how the Belarusians themselves00:51:10
live. Yes, if we were talking about00:51:12
the border area. Well, I already partially answered00:51:14
this question that thank God Ukrainian00:51:16
policy is determined not by people like00:51:17
Romanenko and people making military00:51:21
decisions quite soberly in Ukraine00:51:23
understand that there is no military need00:51:27
to increase the risk with their own hands that the00:51:29
Northern Front will open again and00:51:32
therefore for now the reverse policy is not00:51:35
provoking rather, but can it00:51:38
change? Well, if the Belarusian00:51:39
territory is simply shelling by00:51:41
land invasion a feature with the00:51:44
participation of Belarusian troops if it is00:51:45
clear that the Belarusian army is participating in one00:51:46
way or another in the war then yes it is00:51:50
possible land war00:51:53
about the fact that00:51:56
they will go to the slaughter Yes Aliya Timofchima is such00:51:58
that I seem to be on the shoulders of the fleeing army But they00:52:02
came and called Drozdy from his00:52:07
settler and then his sestiya Tell me, we’re00:52:10
confused, we’re walking in order to just00:52:12
remove this very00:52:14
nebekka and how much can be00:52:16
stretched If you bring it to the knife and00:52:18
say that they gave him no good Who came00:52:20
from Ukraine00:52:22
all the way they00:52:25
physically came in the Belarusian troops00:52:29
at once with Russian And here they tore off not00:52:31
only the alleys, they were broken,00:52:34
they rushed to be registered on the shoulders and the flowing00:52:37
army. It seems to me that the era of the Napoleonic00:52:39
wars is already over for us. I’m not exactly a00:52:42
military expert, but it seems to me that00:52:43
wars don’t work for that00:52:45
long.00:52:47
It’s hard to imagine such throws now.00:52:50
Ukraine has enough00:52:52
of its own territory and will have00:52:55
enough for some time to come. Yes, in order to00:52:57
organize such absolutely risky, from a00:52:59
logistics point of view, impossible00:53:02
throws because internal troops will remain in Belarus.00:53:05
Belarus will remain00:53:06
riot police. Belarus will have some00:53:10
militarized units inside. countries that00:53:11
will not be sent to slaughter, yes, well, it’s00:53:14
unclear why to organize these00:53:19
battles somewhere near00:53:22
Svetlogorsk Soligorsk and in the south of00:53:24
Belarus, and instead of00:53:27
spending valuable human resources on the00:53:29
decupation of Ukrainian territories, this is00:53:32
some kind of absurdity, it seems to me that’s why00:53:33
such such scenarios I don’t see. But00:53:36
I think that a defeat in the event of00:53:40
Lukashenka’s troops entering the war00:53:42
to defeat these troops would in00:53:45
itself be a serious blow to his ability to00:53:47
rule. In general, history shows that in00:53:49
different ways such regimes are00:53:51
destabilized. Post-war00:53:53
defeat can be no better than remembering00:53:54
who also lost power after00:53:56
essentially losing the war Yes, and here is00:54:00
the possibility of a scenario that this is00:54:02
like a time bomb Yes, the00:54:04
introduction of troops is like cutting off his00:54:07
own chances of survival; for00:54:09
Lukashenko, this may not require00:54:10
all his forces, but such throws 200-30000:54:14
kilometers deep Well, really, I it seems00:54:16
to them that the remedy will be more important at that moment in the00:54:18
Crimea or I don’t know in Donetsk in00:54:20
Lugansk and the Ukrainian army is also not00:54:22
endless00:54:23
home now with Artem that on the 15th Godzin00:54:28
we are releasing his papers with the right to00:54:32
complete Artem Karimov00:54:34
our earliest ones have already looked here more than once razmovy00:54:37
then so the topic itself is such that repressions00:54:40
traces of katavan all this and measles it’s00:54:44
all closed twisted here this00:54:46
pan is how the boil is served then jumping is00:54:49
not glue Moment Kolya thread e together00:54:52
with this lid we’ll study the rest tear it off and00:54:55
everything will break out And to Wonka and the repressions00:54:58
are stretching and they are expanding, we have already00:55:00
guessed But Dukhovich is only 25 years old00:55:03
and here you can bring facts I’m afraid for00:55:06
1,300 politically tied only only00:55:07
officially recognized ones,00:55:10
of course, will disrupt this thread Well,00:55:13
everything seems to be breaking out, only it is00:55:16
breaking out through airports and00:55:19
other methods of exit Yes, there are00:55:24
I don’t remember now a very famous00:55:26
political scientist I feel ashamed now00:55:27
who spoke about or the sociologist he was talking about00:55:31
strategies in general00:55:33
for people to fight00:55:38
pressure from state repression, this is an00:55:40
exit strategy, yes, when you go out to00:55:43
protest, this is an escape strategy, when00:55:46
you go out into internal or external00:55:48
immigration or strategy as if such a00:55:49
reconciliation with this That is, acceptance of the new00:55:51
reality or00:55:53
what the hell Of course it’s a shame, but00:55:57
you need to understand what people often do in00:56:01
this in this in this triple choice they00:56:03
prefer less less dangerous00:56:05
options for immigration or come to terms with the00:56:09
new reality only a minority of00:56:12
situations of increasing risks00:56:14
prefer to find risks and to react to this00:56:16
pressure by protesting by going out00:56:18
into the street, and accordingly00:56:22
we saw that certain outbursts A with the00:56:28
same seltzer Yes, the same march to the00:56:30
war of Belarusian Volunteers can00:56:32
also be considered a form of such resistance00:56:33
because this is resistance to what00:56:35
they consider the common enemy of the00:56:37
Belarusian-Russian such Putin's00:56:39
Lukashenko's, that is, we see that in the00:56:43
diaspora there continues to be resistance from00:56:44
people who devote all their energy to00:56:48
the cause of building a democratic Belarus,00:56:50
that is, there are people who, despite00:56:54
demotivation for some reason, they00:56:57
continue to work, but most people00:56:59
make an individual choice in favor of00:57:01
self-preservation, this seems quite00:57:03
obvious to me and there is no linear relationship that00:57:05
if you increase the degree of repression by 1000:57:09
degrees Yes, relatively speaking, or by00:57:11
some amount, then you00:57:13
increase the protest potential by the same amount. But it’s00:57:15
not like that, a closed border is a different situation; it’s00:57:17
much easier for people to leave.00:57:18
If you have the opportunity to endlessly00:57:22
feed and motivate your security forces,00:57:24
then you can end up in a situation in North00:57:26
Korea where Well, it would seem yes How many years of the00:57:29
most severe repressions Well, no, there is no00:57:31
way to build horizontal00:57:33
connections In order to00:57:34
counteract This, therefore, unfortunately,00:57:37
this phrase is more like this00:57:41
[music]00:57:43
Well, I don’t know, journalistic about about00:57:46
boiling and it works at some00:57:50
intervals, yes, that is, if00:57:54
you are only engaged in repression but at the same time you are00:57:57
not trying to offer people00:58:00
any alternatives, for example, Who doesn’t00:58:01
like it, leave or00:58:04
Well, okay, if you repent there and00:58:07
write a petition, we will pardon you and00:58:09
let you go if you are only engaged in00:58:10
repression there you probably increase00:58:12
the likelihood that the thread will be torn off, but00:58:15
Lukashenko still does not close the borders yet,00:58:16
and the Soviet experience of the00:58:19
Soviet Union showed how00:58:20
important this is compared to Cuba, by the way, also00:58:22
Cuba, which we mentioned today, has00:58:25
always kept its borders open and this is00:58:27
the key to the stability of the Castro regime therefore,00:58:31
I would not rely on this, unfortunately, I00:58:33
would not rely on this, but00:58:35
in the Belarusian Belarusian modern00:58:37
history, rather, periods of liberalization of some kind, so00:58:39
relative and not00:58:41
consistent, so partial. It was00:58:44
they who liberated the Belarusians and gave them00:58:48
Faith that they could, through collective00:58:50
efforts, change the power and periods00:58:53
twisting00:58:54
and00:58:56
to the reverse dynamics in society Artem, I00:58:59
generalize I can’t just not try those00:59:01
who are your fading, so we more than once00:59:02
in the idx program laid out the topic of the fact00:59:06
that Belarusians had previously left for freezing00:59:09
velma easy at the mass of myastsovaya00:59:13
someone got away And what’s more,00:59:15
a Belarusian has arrived Poland has been there once for six months00:59:18
and he is no longer a Belarusian Pole in Germany he is00:59:21
already a German in the USA an American and in Australia00:59:23
in Australians and so on at a time with him and the00:59:25
lawyers I work with Belarusian and scammed00:59:32
immigrants emigrants not in the hallway with00:59:34
their lokants it seems that it’s me praising the00:59:38
Belarusians00:59:41
Yen categorically don’t want to. So,00:59:44
I’m00:59:47
in front of them, I’m their leader, I don’t want to push language only on the00:59:50
bombers, they wanted to00:59:52
go somewhere to the kramu somewhere to deal with00:59:54
such everyday torture and everything seems to be00:59:56
not necessary and not because tomorrow01:00:00
they are planning to go to Belarus because the Yans01:00:03
want to01:00:05
make their own here. Well, let’s say Belarusian01:00:09
Town doesn’t want to live its own life and is a community, but to01:00:13
work only with Belarusian01:00:15
businessmen, businessmen, and01:00:19
business structures. Which Belarusians want to pit01:00:22
children from their Belarusian schools,01:00:25
go to concerts of Belarusian rockers here01:00:28
here and the01:00:29
flask of Belarusians here about what to drag away,01:00:32
this first of all shows the01:00:35
difference in the motivation of emigrants. Yes, and01:00:38
refugees, the people who left until now, for the01:00:41
most part, did it01:00:42
voluntarily And did it because they01:00:44
decided that we would build01:00:47
our lives somewhere and not in Belarus, the people01:00:50
who left after the twentieth year, for the01:00:51
most part, did it involuntarily.01:00:53
Because they were either not given the opportunity01:00:56
to work or they were in danger, this01:00:59
means that if they moved and01:01:03
began to integrate into society, for01:01:05
them and for us, I can say in this01:01:07
case, about us, it would mean admitting01:01:10
our defeat, we were expelled from the01:01:13
Belarusians, we were expelled from society and we01:01:15
came to terms with it and were kicked out. Yes, and we01:01:17
completely succumbed to this.01:01:20
Lukashenko wanted to achieve it, the security forces,01:01:23
therefore, for them, preserving their01:01:25
Belarusianness is the remaining Form of01:01:27
protest, this is the remaining Form not01:01:30
acceptance of a reality in which there is not all the01:01:36
view of the world imposed on them in which if you left01:01:39
You are no longer Belarus, this form of protest01:01:41
No, I will remain a Belarusian and it’s not up to you01:01:44
usurpers there to decide that That is, this is the01:01:48
first time such I think the second reason01:01:51
It is the fact that many people01:01:53
who left after 20 and since 202001:01:56
still maintain the belief that01:02:00
today’s01:02:01
[music]01:02:02
freeze in Belarus is at the same time01:02:06
not a new normal; in the past, many01:02:08
such diasporas01:02:10
believed in this in vain and this turned out to be01:02:12
naivety in the case of white emigration01:02:14
Yes A01:02:17
hundred years ago, Russian white immigration,01:02:19
but in the case of Belarusians, I think01:02:22
Belarusians who left have much more01:02:23
reason to believe that they have01:02:26
absolutely real chances to01:02:28
return to their country in the foreseeable future. And if01:02:29
you plan to return to your country, then01:02:32
integrate into another. I know that01:02:34
very many people do not sell their01:02:35
real estate, not because the market there01:02:38
is bad, but because selling your01:02:40
real estate to Belarus would mean01:02:42
admitting that you are breaking ties with this country.01:02:44
And through a person does not01:02:46
want to admit this to himself and,01:02:47
accordingly, holds it as an Anchor01:02:50
that01:02:52
can A house that can will return01:02:54
That is, this also says a lot. Well,01:02:58
God forbid that it doesn’t spill over01:03:02
during those months of years or01:03:04
how long there is left to be in immigration.01:03:05
Well, I’m the first channel that won’t spill01:03:09
that we’re grabbing And this one of ours and Belarusian01:03:12
Bone and the fullness of the01:03:14
overtane for the homeland and peace that we01:03:17
are holding out to rob what we can do01:03:19
for the self-interest of Belarus I already01:03:21
showed the book of the Belarusian01:03:22
national idea on the march where there is a01:03:26
national idea from Artyom Shaiman they didn’t01:03:30
give me a bunch of times a friend of the army if the01:03:32
data sheet of our first book of the01:03:35
Belarusian national idea of detox01:03:38
velmish mata dumak about the Belarusian nation01:03:42
and they didn’t give Yak 20 Shoster Kostristhnika I01:03:47
will be with the presentation of these two books about01:03:50
New York together with Levon Troysky and01:03:52
Vladimir Pugach with a bunch of Volski and01:03:55
Jay Morse We are going fell night on an01:03:57
American tour of five cities Well, really,01:04:00
the skill will be trifle more Belarusian Yes,01:04:03
dispute patrobuessu Meeting with me so01:04:05
this is a Refusal And you and Vadim Ignatiev to01:04:09
the fact that Lukashuk about his hard life01:04:12
Say Let it be like this and it’s a hard life for us01:04:15
you pratse e shmat rob shmat you believe01:04:18
in Belarus and in the self-interest of Belarus dyak01:04:21
Artyom and dyakuyu at Sim Subscribe I'll01:04:24
tell you about Artyom Shaiban's telegram channel01:04:27
on Youtube Euro channel glad and01:04:29
go to our patreon listen watch01:04:32
us tomorrow we have Velme Shmat Taksama01:04:35
Tikavyh Velma Razmov and for today I01:04:38
will develop higher with youDescription:
Артем Шрайбман (https://telegram.org/ ответит на ваши вопросы в эфире Еврорадио! Подключайтесь! / Стрим. Политика. Новости Беларуси. Тихановская. Лукашенко. Полк Калиновского. Беларусь — Украина // Таймкоды появятся сразу после эфира! Поддержите работу редакции: 👍 Платная подписка на YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC1v_dekbxqgQjBQ2fg39uBg/join 👍 Купите книгу Змитра Лукашука на Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/euroradio Таймкоды: 0:00 Начало разговора 1:25 Что не так с признанием полка Калиновского со стороны депутатов Рады? 4:00 Официальные спикеры Киева не имеют единой позиции по Беларуси 5:45 Факт: политизация беларусских добровольцев и силовиков в эмиграции 10:25 Политизация силовиков: что это значит для Кабинета? 13:10 Возможен ли удар по Беларуси со стороны ВСУ? Вступит ли армия РБ в войну? 16:40 Про скрытую мобилизацию 20:20 Сейчас нет силового ресурса свергнуть режим Лукашенко 21:40 Силовой сценарий свержения Лукашенко вообще возможен? 26:15 Что значат публичные активности Тертеля, Вольфовича, Макея? 27:50 Лукашенко правда верил, что на Беларусь готовится нападение? Искаженное восприятие 34:35 Лукашенко действует в фарватере России, но признаков того, что тут всем рулит Кремль, нет 38:45 Лукашенко идёт к посту губернатора Беларуси, это трагедия. Как это обратить? 41:50 Запад закроет границы с Беларусью? 44:20 Усиление легитимности Кабинета за рубежом 45:30 Новые паспорта для беларусов: насколько это возможно? 48:10 Придется сшивать народ? Как жить в Новой Беларуси честным людям, «беглым» и тем, кто поддерживал режим или просто сидел тихо? 51:00 Удары по городам Беларуси: пока Украина на это не пойдет 52:30 ВСУ не пойдут освобождать Беларусь 55:10 Когда у режима Лукашенко сорвет резьбу? 1:00:35 Беларусы за рубежом не хотят пускать корни Подписывайтесь на наши соцсети: 💎 ТГ: https://t.me/euroradio 💎 FB: https://www.facebook.com/unsupportedbrowser 💎 TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@euroradio 💎 ВК: https://vk.com/euroradio 💎 ОК: https://ok.ru/euroradio 💎 Instagram: https://www.facebook.com/unsupportedbrowser
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