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00:00:01

[music]

00:00:22

[applause]

00:00:31

in the ninety-first year, the Institute of the United States and

00:00:35

Canadian Academy of Sciences ordered the Faculty of

00:00:40

Applied Mathematics of

00:00:41

Control Processes of Leningrad University to conduct

00:00:46

research work on the topic of

00:00:50

interaction between great powers for the period

00:00:53

until 2000. 5,

00:00:57

the customer implied that, based on the

00:01:02

apparatus of game theory,

00:01:05

what -models of interaction and on their

00:01:09

basis it will be possible to calculate policy

00:01:14

to evaluate options well, the apparatus of game theory

00:01:18

is one of the areas of

00:01:21

probability theory from statistics and in the

00:01:25

United States it is generally

00:01:27

used to manage conflicts by

00:01:31

modeling them

00:01:33

but in general it turns out that roughly speaking

00:01:37

there are subjects whose behavior is random

00:01:42

and so they somehow interact there, who

00:01:45

will win,

00:01:50

but in the interaction the behavior of the subjects is

00:01:54

random or not by chance,

00:01:58

each subject strives for some

00:02:01

goals,

00:02:03

where and how these goals come from, it’s a question in

00:02:08

what ways by what means these goals

00:02:11

can be realized, that is, it turns out

00:02:16

like this that there is a certain level of modeling

00:02:19

that turns out to be higher than the apparatus of

00:02:23

game theory, and since it became clear that on the

00:02:30

basis of the apparatus of game theory and the tasks

00:02:36

set by the customer

00:02:39

cannot be completed, the question arose about how

00:02:47

and what works above the level of the apparatus of

00:02:50

game theory, as a result, a

00:02:53

fairly general theory was obtained control is a

00:02:57

fairly general theory of control, it

00:03:01

is characterized by the fact that it contains

00:03:04

these concepts, the

00:03:08

apparatus of game theory, this is one of the

00:03:13

areas of

00:03:14

applied probability theory and

00:03:17

mathematical statistics,

00:03:35

first of all, the concept of complete control functions was introduced, a

00:03:38

complete control function is a

00:03:43

sequence of actions, the

00:03:47

beginning of which is the identification of

00:03:50

environmental factors that press on the psyche and

00:03:53

causes the need for management and

00:03:57

which ends either with

00:04:00

the achievement of the intended goals in relation to

00:04:04

this factor or with a return to the first

00:04:08

point, the complete management function can

00:04:14

be described with varying degrees

00:04:17

of detail, but if you understand what the

00:04:22

complete management function is, then you

00:04:25

can develop

00:04:28

management theories from it whatever you want with the

00:04:32

degree of detail that you

00:04:34

need stages of the full function

00:04:38

identification of environmental factors that put pressure

00:04:41

on the psyche causes discomfort and

00:04:45

thereby creates a need for control is

00:04:48

everything

00:04:50

in relation to this factor, that is, what do

00:04:54

you want?

00:04:57

Then questions arise: how to achieve this,

00:05:02

how to achieve this, and this building a

00:05:05

management concept, then introducing the

00:05:10

management concept into the life of the

00:05:14

management organization in accordance with the

00:05:17

concept

00:05:20

during management, monitoring the progress of the

00:05:24

process, it may be necessary to

00:05:31

improve the concept and everything

00:05:35

ends with the achievement of the intended goals

00:05:38

and the release of resources that

00:05:41

were used in the management process,

00:05:44

or if the goals are not achieved, new ones are still are

00:05:47

alive then you return to the

00:05:50

first point and Perry are engaged in

00:05:53

goal setting again, building a new

00:05:57

concept, do not continue to act

00:06:03

under the sovereignty of any state, it is

00:06:07

always management according to the full function,

00:06:10

if there is no management according to the full function, then

00:06:14

there is a loss of sovereignty, more

00:06:17

or less, what

00:06:18

is lost, how it is lost, these are already

00:06:21

questions historical specifics,

00:06:27

since

00:06:29

information and algorithms are recognized as

00:06:31

objective categories of being,

00:06:34

they are something generated by the subjectivism of

00:06:39

this or that person, then every

00:06:43

process in nature in society in technology

00:06:47

can be interpreted as a

00:06:50

process of self-government which occurs

00:06:54

within the boundaries of a hierarchically higher

00:06:57

comprehensive control in relation to it,

00:07:01

or as the management process is all

00:07:04

described in the same terms,

00:07:09

then the concept of a lot of words is introduced, but

00:07:13

only there is no

00:07:16

stability of the control object in the sense of

00:07:19

predictability of behavior under the

00:07:22

influence of the external environment of internal

00:07:25

changes and management as such,

00:07:29

briefly stability in the sense of

00:07:31

predictability of behavior, here

00:07:35

stability in the sense of predictability of

00:07:37

behavior is more general understanding

00:07:40

of stability of something, understanding of

00:07:43

stability, which is accepted in

00:07:46

most branches of technology in

00:07:51

natural science disciplines, in

00:07:54

theoretical mechanics in the theory of

00:07:58

automatic control,

00:08:01

but the essence is,

00:08:05

well, let’s say we have some parameters,

00:08:12

this is the time axis,

00:08:15

this parameter is almost unchanged,

00:08:20

fluctuates in some there, within the limits at

00:08:23

moment t1, some kind of impact is exerted on the object

00:08:28

and it comes out of this

00:08:31

mode and then the question arises: what

00:08:34

will happen to it if there is something like this,

00:08:38

this stability, if there is something like this

00:08:43

or something like this this is also

00:08:48

understood as stability with certain

00:08:50

reservations,

00:08:55

but if there is something like this

00:09:07

and something like this with increasing

00:09:13

amplitude, then this is understood as

00:09:15

instability in different forms.

00:09:23

Well, a simple, understandable example, we take a

00:09:25

piece of paper and fold it into an airplane,

00:09:29

and a simple task is if

00:09:32

make this airplane into the window like this, it

00:09:37

will fly out

00:09:41

if you throw it to the side of the window, then in

00:09:44

general, a symmetrically made airplane

00:09:48

will fly out of the window, maybe not the first

00:09:51

time you make some adjustments, but it will

00:09:54

fly out, and if you try to

00:09:58

throw a sheet of paper in the same way, what with it will be, well,

00:10:02

firstly, it is unlikely to reach the window and

00:10:05

you are unlikely to be able to predict the place

00:10:09

on the floor where it will fall, why, well, because

00:10:16

the pattern of flows around the airplane is

00:10:20

invariably

00:10:21

stable and you can

00:10:24

based on this means that the airplane is from the

00:10:28

prescribed trajectory in in general, it wo

00:10:30

n’t go anywhere, maybe there

00:10:32

will be some deviation from the ideal

00:10:36

trajectory, but still everything will be more or

00:10:39

less predictable, so if you throw a

00:10:42

sheet of paper, then from the edges of the sheet of paper

00:10:46

streams break out in a whirlwind, they explode in an

00:10:51

unpredictable random way and

00:10:54

therefore expire falls anywhere that

00:10:57

is, on an airplane, the code in the classics is stable but

00:11:00

the leaf is unstable,

00:11:04

and when tree leaves fall from a tree in the fall,

00:11:07

you also don’t know where it will

00:11:10

fall because the flow pattern is

00:11:13

not predictable, but today we were on

00:11:17

the beach and saw a boat flying past there far on the

00:11:22

horizon

00:11:24

hydrofoils, after all, the dealer,

00:11:29

well, maybe not today, but somewhere once

00:11:31

they saw a boat on hydrofoils,

00:11:34

a boat on hydrofoils, it’s just

00:11:37

like that,

00:11:44

but there is one caveat: these are slightly

00:11:48

submerged wings, that is, they are located

00:11:52

near the surface of the water, opening the diagram,

00:11:56

it is designed in such a way that

00:12:00

if the wing floats, the lift on

00:12:03

it drops and it begins to sink; if

00:12:08

it sinks, then the lift on it

00:12:12

increases and it floats up, and thanks to

00:12:15

this circumstance, a boat on slightly

00:12:18

submerged hydrofoils is

00:12:21

hydrodynamically stable and can

00:12:24

fly off above the water surface. What is

00:12:28

important here is that it is above the water surface

00:12:32

but if there is no surface,

00:12:39

there are waves, then imagine a blow

00:12:44

and a wave at a speed of 30-40 kilometers per

00:12:48

hour and higher, as in real life, some

00:12:52

have experience of flopping onto the water with their tummy

00:12:56

unpleasantly,

00:12:57

but here, in general, the same thing only for

00:13:01

ship structures, in general it will be

00:13:06

severely crippled, you want to fly away and

00:13:10

over the rough sea,

00:13:12

how to do it

00:13:18

in order to fly on 2 rough seas, you need to drive the

00:13:21

wings deep and raise the body

00:13:26

high, the figurines flew

00:13:35

deeply submerged hydrofoils do not

00:13:39

have this quality of

00:13:41

hydrodynamic stability and if you

00:13:45

just lengthen and struts it will not

00:13:48

fly it may come out on the wings and

00:13:52

immediately flop down on its belly, bow or stern,

00:13:56

this is already question 2,

00:13:59

but if you put a whole bunch of

00:14:03

sensors here that will determine the

00:14:05

position of the ship’s hull above the water, the

00:14:10

position of the wings, cream trim and all

00:14:14

that stuff, and then you set up a

00:14:18

control system, then you fly over the

00:14:24

surface of the water and over the rough sea,

00:14:29

the main thing is that the bot has just

00:14:32

[music] the

00:14:35

distance between the tops and bottoms of

00:14:38

the wave

00:14:39

was less than the height of the racks,

00:14:44

this is an example of the fact that the problem of

00:14:49

stability in the sense of predictability

00:14:52

of the behavior of an object has been solved and thanks to the

00:14:58

solution of the problem of stability in the sense

00:15:01

predictability of the behavior of an object, it is possible to

00:15:06

ensure stable control of

00:15:09

an object that is unstable in the usual

00:15:12

understanding of this term,

00:15:14

another illustration on the topic of the relationship between the

00:15:21

usual understanding of stability and

00:15:25

stability in the sense of predictability

00:15:27

of behavior

00:15:41

means the acceleration of free fall of a

00:15:45

ball in a bowl, well, it is clear that if we

00:15:50

take it out of equilibrium, it

00:15:53

will make us oscillate in the

00:15:56

end and it becomes like this here and now

00:16:02

let's do the opposite,

00:16:05

the rest a steel ball fell on it,

00:16:13

here the same acceleration of free

00:16:17

fall which will be in general the correct

00:16:28

approach if the dome is very large then

00:16:31

due to the fact that there are some micro

00:16:34

irregularities and all that stuff on

00:16:36

the surface of a seemingly spherical

00:16:39

dome, you can find such a place that the ball will

00:16:43

not go anywhere out if the

00:16:46

size ratio is approximately such what it will be and here

00:16:52

and because this is an

00:16:55

external view and if we make a cut then we

00:16:59

can see something like this this is

00:17:04

the body of the dome

00:17:15

under the dome, we have a magnet hidden,

00:17:20

this means that stability in the sense of

00:17:24

predictability of behavior is a

00:17:27

subjective phenomenon, and when I drew a

00:17:31

ball on it, different

00:17:33

opinions arose Stepan said that he will remain on

00:17:36

top if the sizes are large and he is right and

00:17:39

you are right in your own way

00:17:42

that it will roll there, provided that there are no

00:17:46

restraining factors,

00:17:49

restraining factors may be, there may be a

00:17:53

restraining factor, a magnet,

00:17:58

you won’t get anywhere if the ball is

00:18:02

steel, and then there’s a magnet,

00:18:07

it won’t go anywhere from the force field of the magnet,

00:18:10

but if we replace the steel ball with a

00:18:13

copper or plastic one, then again the effect

00:18:16

here will be like this,

00:18:17

this is an illustration on the topic that the

00:18:20

concept of sustainability in the sense of

00:18:22

predictability of behavior

00:18:25

under the influence of the external environment of

00:18:28

internal changes

00:18:30

and in the control object as such, it

00:18:33

combines both objective and

00:18:36

subjective factors;

00:18:38

this is what is unpredictable for one person,

00:18:44

predictable for another person easy and simple, why is

00:18:50

another question, but the

00:18:57

concept of sustainability in the sense

00:18:59

of predictability, in general, it is closely

00:19:02

related to the creative potential of the

00:19:04

individual because, in general,

00:19:10

sustainability in the sense of predictability,

00:19:13

it arises as the realization of creative

00:19:16

potential during the management process

00:19:22

further in a fairly general theory of

00:19:26

management ideas about three

00:19:30

methods of control are introduced, well, the structural

00:19:33

method of control is very clear to everyone, the

00:19:37

structure of this control system

00:19:41

consists of some set of

00:19:43

functionally specialized

00:19:45

elements, they are connected to each other by

00:19:49

channels of exchange information and energy,

00:19:52

everything else, and the system functions in

00:19:56

some way so as to provide

00:20:00

what we want control

00:20:09

is possible in a non-structural

00:20:12

way, but it is not possible everywhere, but

00:20:15

the concept of a super system is introduced; a

00:20:19

super system is a set of elements,

00:20:24

each of which is controlled on the

00:20:28

basis of this information; an algorithm or something that

00:20:31

is in its memory;

00:20:35

they can exchange information; the

00:20:38

algorithm kai with each other to form

00:20:43

some relationships in the process of

00:20:46

one's own self-government based on

00:20:49

concealed new information algorithm and

00:20:52

which has the memory of each of them super

00:20:57

systems, there are two more possible methods of

00:20:59

control

00:21:01

without a structural method of control

00:21:06

without a structural method of control it

00:21:09

is expressed in the fact that through the super system

00:21:12

we pass a certain information

00:21:14

module

00:21:18

elements of the super system react to this

00:21:23

information as an external factor of the environment,

00:21:27

but they react in the process of

00:21:30

self-government according to the

00:21:32

information and algorithm that

00:21:35

they have in memory and it may turn out that

00:21:41

as a result of passing through this

00:21:43

information module, a certain

00:21:46

number of elements will give rise to a structure

00:21:51

that exists some control process, the

00:21:59

fundamental difference is from with a

00:22:01

structural method of control,

00:22:04

the structure is created before it

00:22:08

begins to function

00:22:10

precisely as a control system;

00:22:14

in a non-structural method of control,

00:22:18

the structure arises in the process of

00:22:21

self-government of elements if you are

00:22:26

able to assess the likelihood that

00:22:31

the structures you need will arise, that

00:22:34

is, solve the problem of stability in the

00:22:38

sense of predictability of the behavior of

00:22:40

some a subset of elements in the

00:22:44

super system then you can manage without a

00:22:46

structural way you

00:22:49

will straighten eliminate without address

00:22:53

information in the super system in a mode for

00:22:56

everyone someone will accept someone will not accept

00:23:00

some element from among those who have accepted this

00:23:04

information someone will react to it

00:23:07

who - will not react, but there is a

00:23:10

probability other than 0

00:23:14

that in the super system there will be 1 or

00:23:17

more structures that will fulfill this

00:23:21

control concept that you want

00:23:23

in order for them to fulfill this

00:23:26

control concept, you must

00:23:30

take care in advance that there is

00:23:34

information about the algorithm that

00:23:36

can maybe it will be distributed in

00:23:39

different fragments across different elements,

00:23:42

but so that it is still in a super system

00:23:45

and then I react to this

00:23:49

information,

00:23:50

some set of elements will give rise to

00:23:54

certain structures and everything will be

00:23:56

fine, but then it turns out that

00:24:00

structural management in the life of society is

00:24:03

usually born from without structural

00:24:06

control in those situations where the goal

00:24:13

retains its significance and is stable,

00:24:16

well, apparently the first army

00:24:19

was not created as a structure,

00:24:23

but first a people’s militia arose, but

00:24:28

the need for defense

00:24:30

led to the fact that the people’s militia

00:24:33

was not completely dissolved by

00:24:35

those who had the appropriate skills

00:24:39

they formed a structure that was then

00:24:43

reproduced as an army; the

00:24:46

situation is approximately the same with fire brigades,

00:24:50

but in general, without

00:24:53

structural management,

00:24:55

in life they can solve the same

00:25:00

problems, but the simplest example is a

00:25:04

bus, a bus with a conductor, a conductor,

00:25:08

what problems does this structure solve? sell tickets

00:25:12

collect money you give change if

00:25:17

someone asks about the performances

00:25:19

the conductor is usually able to tell

00:25:21

where what and how we eliminate the conductor

00:25:26

as a position we will insert braids the

00:25:30

same problems are solved by the entire random

00:25:34

population of passengers who travel on the

00:25:37

bus

00:25:38

then the question arises which way is

00:25:41

better

00:25:45

and what are the criteria if you are interested in

00:25:49

reliability, that is, all genetics, all

00:25:54

passengers travel with tickets and guarantees

00:25:58

that the conductor will give out information about

00:26:01

where to go, then the conductor is better

00:26:04

if you have commercial interests,

00:26:07

then eliminate the position of the conductor, you

00:26:10

get some savings on costs in

00:26:13

the form of his salary, but along with with this, the

00:26:16

number of birds with one stone increases, you must

00:26:19

increase the number of controllers; we look

00:26:25

at the same situation from the other side. From

00:26:30

society as a whole, it is necessary to produce

00:26:33

the paper from which the tickets are made. Bennett

00:26:37

received the passengers; he got off the bus

00:26:40

and threw it at best into damage; you

00:26:45

have the right to raise the question: should Should

00:26:49

society waste

00:26:53

natural labor resources in vain in order to

00:26:55

produce these tickets? It may be more

00:26:59

economically profitable on the scale of

00:27:01

society as a whole to put all

00:27:04

public transport on the budget and

00:27:07

manage it somehow differently without these same

00:27:11

commercial indicators,

00:27:14

that is, the same management

00:27:17

question can give different answers to

00:27:20

it depending on what you want

00:27:23

and at what level they look at, well, another

00:27:28

option is when two super systems penetrate

00:27:32

each other

00:27:34

then it seems like if we look from the position of

00:27:38

super system 1, here is super system 1

00:27:46

[music]

00:27:50

and inside it there is super system 2

00:27:57

the relationship between them is such that each

00:28:00

element of supersystem 2 belongs to super

00:28:03

system 1,

00:28:04

but not every element of supersystem 1

00:28:09

belongs to super system 2. Now let’s

00:28:13

assume that super system 1

00:28:22

generates a certain structure that is active,

00:28:30

inactive, but deployed within

00:28:34

supersystem 2,

00:28:36

if we look at it from the position

00:28:39

supersystem 2, then we may not see

00:28:43

this structure,

00:28:44

but if it starts working, then we will see

00:28:49

that the elements of supersystem 2, seemingly

00:28:53

independently of each other, randomly

00:28:57

take actions that

00:29:00

turn out to be coordinated and

00:29:03

corresponding to some management concept,

00:29:08

but from the position of supersystem 2, the structure

00:29:12

does not exist from the position supersystems,

00:29:16

one structure exists and when it

00:29:19

is activated, this control begins to work

00:29:23

on the basis of a virtual

00:29:25

structure, that is, depending on how you look from

00:29:28

one point of view, there is no structure, from

00:29:31

another point of view, there is a structure, and in

00:29:35

large super systems there is usually a

00:29:39

combination of all three control methods,

00:29:43

this option is this those situations when,

00:29:47

let’s say, an intelligence network of

00:29:49

foreign intelligence agencies deployed in your

00:29:52

state

00:29:55

gave a command and the intelligence network began

00:29:58

to engage in sabotage and terrorist

00:30:01

activities, although before issuing the command

00:30:04

they seemed to be ordinary citizens of

00:30:07

your country who did not stand out in any way

00:30:10

and did not differ from others, here are the

00:30:14

complete functions of control described

00:30:17

in stages I have already named the stages, in principle

00:30:24

everything is on the Internet, so it is not necessary to write it down

00:30:27

beyond

00:30:33

control theory, which presupposes an understanding

00:30:37

of what a closed system is, and

00:30:42

here you need to understand that the words closed

00:30:46

isolated are not a synonym, that is,

00:30:50

closure is understood as the interaction of a

00:30:54

control system of a control object

00:30:58

that are connected to each other by circuits

00:31:02

direct connections and feedback direct

00:31:06

connections go from the control system to the control

00:31:09

object feedback go from the

00:31:14

control object to the system

00:31:16

control

00:31:17

this is the connection the control system the

00:31:20

control object

00:31:22

is a closed system

00:31:25

then they begin as a feature of a

00:31:29

fairly general control theory;

00:31:34

part of the direct connections goes into the environment with

00:31:38

which they interact closed

00:31:40

system and part of the feedback and the environment

00:31:47

goes into the control system, well, many specialists

00:31:52

in automatic control theory

00:31:54

are driven to the wall by this

00:31:57

definition because in their versions of

00:32:01

control theory, direct connections do not go into the

00:32:05

environment and feedback does not go from the environment

00:32:09

to the control system

00:32:11

if you even apply to primitive

00:32:14

control practices such as driving a

00:32:16

car before

00:32:20

changing lanes or some maneuver, you

00:32:23

indicate a turn by turning on the

00:32:27

corresponding signal lights;

00:32:34

this issues information to the external environment about

00:32:38

your intentions, that is, these are direct

00:32:40

connections that go to the external environment;

00:32:44

if you are going to maneuver, you

00:32:47

also look at which cars are where what

00:32:53

lights are on on them, that is, some

00:32:58

information from the environment

00:33:01

enters the control system through a feedback chain, and

00:33:04

along with this, there is

00:33:08

interaction between the control object

00:33:10

and the environment, this is stability in the sense of

00:33:16

predictability under the influence of the external

00:33:20

environment, but here in the control object too

00:33:24

some changes occur, if the

00:33:28

same car consumes fuel, then at

00:33:31

some stage you should think about

00:33:34

where the nearest gas station is because

00:33:37

if

00:33:39

the fuel pump dries up somewhere on the road then

00:33:44

you will have some troubles,

00:33:47

including possibly with the brains of cars

00:33:50

that do not they will understand that this

00:33:52

could also happen, but the fact that under

00:33:56

the influence of control it is

00:34:00

also necessary to look at how

00:34:02

the car behaves is also understandable, that is, everything

00:34:06

that concerns the complete control function of

00:34:10

stability in the sense of predictability of

00:34:14

control methods, it is in some

00:34:16

way related to the processes

00:34:20

occurring during the interaction of a

00:34:23

closed system with its environment,

00:34:31

then there are 3 control circuits; a

00:34:36

software control circuit and it

00:34:40

has only direct connections;

00:34:43

there is no feedback circuit, but in fact here is a

00:34:47

software control circuit; it is

00:34:50

implemented in automatic washing machines; there is a

00:34:52

certain timer; it counts

00:34:57

the time and depending on what

00:34:59

second the program is running performs

00:35:03

certain operations,

00:35:04

spins the drum, fills and drains water,

00:35:09

or spins the drum so that it operates

00:35:12

in centrifuge mode and dries clothes; the

00:35:18

software control circuit is primitive,

00:35:22

but nevertheless there are situations in which

00:35:26

it is quite functional and there is no

00:35:29

need to fence in the garden with

00:35:33

feedback connections and the complication of the control system,

00:35:37

but the software control scheme

00:35:40

requires that the conditions in which it is

00:35:44

implemented

00:35:46

correspond to those for which it is

00:35:49

designed, if something

00:35:54

unpredictable and unforeseen happens, there may

00:35:57

be oddities or there may be tragedies, here is

00:35:59

one of these oddities, a competition

00:36:04

in ship modeling at a distance rocket

00:36:07

boat with a program control, the

00:36:10

task is to go the distance and get into

00:36:13

the gate, and on the way he also has to fire a

00:36:17

salvo of four missiles; the

00:36:21

boat breaks down at a distance and loses speed; the

00:36:25

wind starts to turn and the boat

00:36:30

changes its position so that

00:36:34

there are 100 judges in the shooting sector

00:36:36

at this time according to the program

00:36:41

that continues to work, the

00:36:44

moment of the rocket salvo comes, the first

00:36:48

rocket converges on the guide and flies

00:36:52

over the heads of the members of the panel of judges

00:36:55

by the time the 2nd rocket appears, the entire

00:36:59

panel of judges is under the table, here

00:37:04

the program has failed, there are no means to

00:37:08

stop it and there were in fact there

00:37:12

should have been feedbacks that

00:37:16

if the boat stops moving, the

00:37:18

programs stop working,

00:37:23

then the software adaptive control scheme; the software adaptive

00:37:26

control scheme

00:37:29

includes both direct

00:37:32

connections and feedback, but it

00:37:36

is characterized by the fact that the

00:37:39

control algorithm in it is generally unchanged

00:37:44

or it can switch from one

00:37:47

mode to another but this is how in

00:37:49

cars the power system and the power are kept to a minimum,

00:37:54

ecology to the maximum or sport,

00:37:58

when the dynamics improve, the environmental

00:38:02

performance deteriorates,

00:38:04

but nevertheless the control scheme is

00:38:07

software adaptive in all variants,

00:38:11

they only react to changes that have already happened,

00:38:14

if it’s some kind of

00:38:18

climate control, then here’s the temperature

00:38:22

The stove fell, it turned on, it became warm,

00:38:30

but you know, there are situations when the

00:38:33

adaptive software control circuit is

00:38:35

not able to use the full

00:38:38

potential that the

00:38:41

closed system as a whole has, why do

00:38:46

some changes occur? The cottages

00:38:50

do not have 0 sensitivity until the

00:38:54

changes exceed the

00:38:56

sensitivity threshold of the sensors.

00:38:58

then the sensors transmit

00:39:04

information, it can also be

00:39:07

the speed of the information transmission system,

00:39:09

of course,

00:39:12

even when we use it, for example, with

00:39:15

a kick, then in

00:39:20

reality the sound reaches and the video reaches the

00:39:24

addressee more slowly than in analog

00:39:27

systems,

00:39:28

then the control system takes

00:39:32

some time to process the information,

00:39:35

develop a control action, then add a

00:39:39

control action

00:39:42

direct connections fall on the executive

00:39:45

bodies of management, they also require

00:39:49

time to work out and in general it

00:39:52

turns out that even if the system

00:39:55

develops the correct management

00:39:59

decision, it is somehow

00:40:00

delayed and while this delay time is flowing, the

00:40:07

control object can go beyond the

00:40:11

permissible limits on deviation from the

00:40:15

ideal mode, what

00:40:19

to do in such cases, in such cases, you can go to the

00:40:23

control circuit predictor corrector

00:40:25

control circuit predictor corrector

00:40:29

develops a control action not

00:40:33

only taking into account events that have already happened;

00:40:38

during its operation, the behavior of the

00:40:42

object’s behavior environment is predicted and the

00:40:47

control action is developed taking into

00:40:50

account this prediction first of all, by

00:40:53

eye, well, that is, a certain amount of

00:40:57

feedback is closed not through the

00:41:01

accomplished past, but through the

00:41:04

predicted future,

00:41:08

well,

00:41:11

how does the predictor-corrector circuit work, here’s

00:41:14

one of the jokes: firefighters play

00:41:16

dominoes, shuffled the dice, collected,

00:41:22

looked, we goats,

00:41:28

shuffled the dice, collected, looked, you

00:41:31

goats, no game itself as such,

00:41:35

no one knocks on the table with knuckles,

00:41:39

this is an anecdotal example of how the

00:41:43

predictor-corrector scheme works, but in

00:41:46

some situations, preemptive

00:41:49

influence can prevent

00:41:52

big troubles,

00:41:54

that is, if you, as a politician, expect

00:41:57

aggression, then the

00:41:59

deployment of security forces near

00:42:02

borders in some cases can sober up the

00:42:06

potential aggressor and you

00:42:09

will not have the need to wage war as such.

00:42:15

Well, I have already told you about the methods of control,

00:42:18

in general, it turns out

00:42:24

that the tools of a fairly general

00:42:27

theory of control are a necessary

00:42:29

tool for analyzing

00:42:32

current politics, analyzing history

00:42:38

if it is not there, are you not using it? If you own it,

00:42:42

you won’t see a lot of things in history, or

00:42:46

you will see them but understand them incorrectly, or

00:42:48

you won’t perceive it at all as a social

00:42:54

historical phenomenon, but will see in it the

00:42:58

play of some elemental forces or a confluence of

00:43:01

accidents,

00:43:06

and then the question arises of how the

00:43:12

predictor-corrector scheme works and how it is

00:43:15

generally solved the problem of stability in the

00:43:18

sense of predictability of behavior,

00:43:23

the metaphor of the tree of

00:43:27

knowledge

00:43:28

[music] has been known since ancient times, and the

00:43:30

tree of knowledge in tradition is not a

00:43:33

Christmas tree, it is an apple tree,

00:43:36

why, because in ancient times there was no

00:43:41

such thing as an algorithm and

00:43:44

drawing a branching flowchart of an

00:43:47

algorithm was problematic, but the crown of the apple tree

00:43:50

it really branches and, among

00:43:53

other things, the apple tree bears some kind of

00:43:56

fruit, and then the question arises of how to

00:44:01

interpret the metaphor,

00:44:04

this is the interpretation proposed: the

00:44:09

soil

00:44:10

is an objective reality, texts and

00:44:13

other cultural monuments, inherited

00:44:16

from past eras, the

00:44:21

roots of the tree of knowledge, this is the methodology of

00:44:24

knowledge,

00:44:26

that is, how we are from the flow of everything information

00:44:31

that is in the world,

00:44:34

we highlight something addressed to us, how

00:44:37

we comprehend it, and as a result

00:44:40

we receive new knowledge and new skills

00:44:44

that in the past were not available in the culture of society,

00:44:47

which we also did not possess,

00:44:54

in general, all our activities are the

00:44:57

management of something in engineering in

00:45:02

construction, this is the management of

00:45:04

technologies, the creation of technologies,

00:45:08

medicine, this is the management of the course of

00:45:11

diseases or the management of the

00:45:15

healing process of the body, these are different things,

00:45:22

therefore, the first product of the methodology of

00:45:27

knowledge is a certain one that is quite

00:45:29

general in the sense of the

00:45:32

universality of application of the theory of

00:45:34

management

00:45:37

pug,

00:45:39

we have become familiar with its main provisions,

00:45:42

although in general the topic is

00:45:47

quite general theory of management is a

00:45:50

lesson for at least one semester

00:45:53

every week on topics there is something to

00:45:58

talk about and what to show their theories in

00:46:03

abstract art their practices of activity

00:46:07

the crown of a tree these are applied scientific

00:46:12

disciplines the

00:46:16

boundaries of the trunk and each of the branches

00:46:20

is what in technology is called

00:46:22

metrology in the broadest understanding

00:46:26

of metrology is the doctrine of how the

00:46:28

abstractions of a certain theory and

00:46:31

terminological symbolic apparatus are

00:46:34

related to real phenomena in life;

00:46:38

if there is no metrology, then activity

00:46:43

is impossible; if you catch any scientific

00:46:48

theory on the fact that some concepts

00:46:53

cannot be connected with objective

00:46:56

reality

00:46:57

or this connection cannot definitely be like this, it

00:47:03

can be sekai

00:47:04

and you do not control this connection, that is, you

00:47:08

cannot set it prescriptively, then this

00:47:12

theory is metrologically untenable for us,

00:47:15

it plausibly explains something, but it is

00:47:23

impossible to use it to solve practical problems; well, one example is this

00:47:29

theory of passionarity Gumilev

00:47:31

what is passionarity if

00:47:35

you analyze his book from Megin s and the

00:47:38

biosphere of the earth there are about a dozen definitions of

00:47:42

passionarity

00:47:44

and they are all different

00:47:49

if we have this then it is

00:47:53

impossible further Marxist

00:47:57

political economy what are necessary

00:48:03

products what is a surplus product it is

00:48:07

impossible to say unambiguously what is

00:48:11

necessary working time and what is

00:48:14

surplus labor time is also

00:48:16

impossible to say, the transfer of value from the

00:48:21

means of production to products is an

00:48:25

accounting operation

00:48:27

called depreciation deductions and

00:48:30

it is not subject to some objective

00:48:33

laws, but to the legislation in force in the country,

00:48:37

which determines the

00:48:40

standards for these same depreciation

00:48:43

deductions in the work of the economic

00:48:48

problems of socialism in the USSR, Stalin pointed

00:48:51

directly at the metrological

00:48:53

inconsistency of the political economy

00:48:56

of Marxism

00:48:57

by proposing that economists abandon

00:49:00

such terms as necessary product

00:49:03

surplus product necessary labor

00:49:07

time surplus labor time and

00:49:11

thereby Stalin buried Marxism

00:49:14

because if metrologically

00:49:17

insolvent political economy is generated by the

00:49:22

methodology of

00:49:24

dialectical materialism and it is already

00:49:29

scientific then they arise accordingly

00:49:32

questions about what is wrong in the day in the

00:49:36

materialist dialectics of Marxism,

00:49:40

well, if everything is wrong there, then all that

00:49:44

remains from Marxism is this

00:49:47

carrot, we will build socialism in which

00:49:51

everyone will be well-fed, dressed, live happily and

00:49:54

no one will parasitize on the labor of those

00:49:57

near and far everything will be fine,

00:50:00

realistically,

00:50:03

scientifically methodological support for

00:50:06

the construction of socialism, Marxism did not provide

00:50:10

and does not provide to this day, therefore

00:50:13

socialism and communism based on

00:50:16

Marxism cannot be sovereign, this is

00:50:25

that the Soviet Union collapsed, this is largely a

00:50:28

consequence of the scientific failure

00:50:31

of Marxism,

00:50:35

if we look at what

00:50:38

our education system represents it does not

00:50:42

allow you to go all the way from

00:50:45

objective reality to the home of the results of

00:50:50

applying any scientific theories in

00:50:54

practical activities in solving

00:50:59

certain problems, our

00:51:02

education system offers a kind of herbarium of

00:51:05

branches, it is somehow inserted into curricula,

00:51:10

and then students are asked to jump from

00:51:13

branch to branch instead of

00:51:16

going all the way from

00:51:19

objective reality to a useful

00:51:21

result,

00:51:25

metrology is a fairly general theory of

00:51:29

control and methodology of cognition

00:51:37

and methodology of cognition and creativity for

00:51:40

most people these are closed topics,

00:51:43

this is also something that has no place in their psyche,

00:51:48

we are from here and such a quality of life

00:51:53

[music]

00:51:56

further if from the position of a fairly general

00:52:00

theory of managing society we consider it

00:52:03

as a super system, then humanity is

00:52:07

also a super system consisting of many

00:52:11

super systems of national cultures of

00:52:16

culturally unique

00:52:18

societies, then the question arises about

00:52:22

managing all this and the answer to the question

00:52:25

about managing all this is given by the duck of

00:52:28

such a hierarchy,

00:52:30

well how can you influence society

00:52:34

[music]

00:52:37

show brute force

00:52:42

or use it

00:52:49

if the

00:52:51

enemy is not able to provide

00:52:53

effective resistance then you

00:52:55

will achieve the goal in relation to him

00:52:58

but there is a saying like he went for the

00:53:02

wool and returned shorn, that is,

00:53:06

the result is not guaranteed,

00:53:33

then

00:53:35

further if you do not want to fight you

00:53:40

can destroy the genetics of the enemy,

00:53:44

2-3 generations will pass and there will be no

00:53:47

one there who can

00:53:49

resist the territory of the United

00:53:54

States for whites, fire water

00:54:00

and some diseases have been cleared,

00:54:05

but in order for the

00:54:07

processes of

00:54:10

biological degeneration to be started in a civilized society, in general it is necessary

00:54:13

invest in something therefore higher

00:54:18

than genetics finance

00:54:23

nice dream there is no saying where a

00:54:26

mighty army will not pass a donkey

00:54:29

laden with gold will pass further what was

00:54:36

in the last picture where

00:54:43

this is

00:54:46

how to manage finances what is a

00:54:49

healthy lifestyle what is not a

00:54:52

healthy lifestyle

00:54:54

this the education system shapes the

00:54:57

mentality, that is, it gives some kind of

00:55:00

factual

00:55:01

interpretation of this factuality, this is the third

00:55:06

priority of the generalized means of government,

00:55:10

ideology, creed, theory of science, all the

00:55:14

factuality that exists in society,

00:55:17

and if Nabiullina was taught that in order

00:55:20

to suppress inflation it is necessary to raise the

00:55:23

refinancing rate, her intelligence is

00:55:31

turned off or as they said in

00:55:34

Soviet times, she will hire world

00:55:36

imperialism,

00:55:38

then she will do what she does and

00:55:41

explain this by the fact that, according to

00:55:45

the theories accepted in economic science, she is

00:55:48

fighting inflation by raising the refinancing rate

00:55:53

that the court interest on the loan is the

00:55:56

primary generator of inflation, she may

00:55:59

not realize everything is turned off

00:56:02

intellect and due to the fact that she

00:56:05

studied other theories at the university that do

00:56:10

not talk about this,

00:56:12

well, in general, how

00:56:18

ideology works is largely subordinated to the

00:56:22

historian's algorithmic priority in the

00:56:25

psychodynamics that psychodynamics brings to society;

00:56:31

algorithms for history

00:56:34

are expressed in chronology and the

00:56:39

chronological skeleton of history it is the third

00:56:43

priority too, but it gives a very strong

00:56:49

impact on society because if

00:56:52

we accept the

00:56:54

official version of historical science

00:56:57

that the Second World War began on

00:57:01

September 1, 1939, then

00:57:04

Poland appears as an innocent victim of the

00:57:08

aggression

00:57:10

of Nazi Germany, questions arise

00:57:15

about the role of the Soviet Union in the period of

00:57:18

August 1939 the ninth year and after

00:57:23

September 17 of the thirty-ninth year, when

00:57:28

Soviet troops entered the territory

00:57:32

of what was then Poland and what happened before that, before September 1, there was

00:57:40

fire

00:57:41

during the civil war and there was a

00:57:44

Polish intervention during the Polish

00:57:48

intervention in Soviet Russia, the territories of western Belarus

00:57:53

were torn away from Soviet Russia

00:57:56

and Ukraine

00:58:01

was formed at the same time, no, at

00:58:06

about the same time, and Vilnius was not

00:58:12

the capital of Lithuania,

00:58:13

but was a Polish city, Vilnius, the capital of

00:58:17

Lithuania was Kaunas,

00:58:19

and if you remember what happened in September

00:58:25

1938, then in September 1938 the

00:58:30

so-called Munich Agreement took place

00:58:33

when Hitler and the leaders of France and England

00:58:40

met and the wars of Fene

00:58:42

and France with England, violating their

00:58:47

allied obligations

00:58:49

towards Czechoslovakia, gave Czechoslovakia to be

00:58:54

torn to pieces by Germany,

00:59:02

Poland and Hungary joined the process of destroying Czechoslovakia and, accordingly, if the

00:59:06

First World War is counted from the

00:59:09

first of September 39,

00:59:12

we will get one history of the First World

00:59:15

War

00:59:16

and if you count from the Munich

00:59:18

agreement, then it’s a different story and there

00:59:22

are no longer innocent victims and aggression,

00:59:25

and Poland is an accomplice of the Hitler

00:59:31

coalition,

00:59:32

this means that one ally decided to attack

00:59:35

another, but this is their internal affairs;

00:59:44

also, if you turn to Finnish

00:59:47

history, you will find out that Finland did not

00:59:50

participate in the second world war against the

00:59:55

backdrop of the second world war she had three

00:59:58

wars the first war this winter war of 39

01:00:03

40 according to the finnish version the

01:00:07

soviet union attacked finland the second

01:00:13

war is a war against the soviet union

01:00:17

against the backdrop of the war of nazi germany with the

01:00:21

soviet union

01:00:22

when they tried to regain that that the

01:00:27

Soviet Union, in their opinion, turned away

01:00:30

from them during the winter war and the third

01:00:35

war was the expulsion of the Nazis from the

01:00:38

territory of Finland after it

01:00:41

became clear that Germany was losing,

01:00:47

but according to the official point of view of

01:00:52

Finnish science, Finland did

01:00:55

not participate in the Second World War,

01:00:59

what took place, but simply so

01:01:04

we played a little with the chronologies, the

01:01:06

winter war, the continuation of the war, I cleared

01:01:12

Finland from the Nazis,

01:01:15

so the historian, the algorithmic

01:01:17

priority that is expressed in the

01:01:19

chronology, a lot of things can have an

01:01:25

impact on society, again, if we

01:01:29

understand that the history of the current

01:01:32

civilization began with a global

01:01:35

geophysical catastrophe that

01:01:38

destroyed the past civilization, then we

01:01:42

will have there are many questions on the topic of

01:01:44

why past civilizations perished,

01:01:48

was it possible to prevent this catastrophe

01:01:52

if we say that the global flood is a

01:01:57

myth, nothing like that happened, but it’s just that

01:02:01

little by little from the biosphere to the current

01:02:04

civilization, then this is a completely different

01:02:07

mentality,

01:02:08

especially in the atheistic version and others

01:02:12

prospects for the future,

01:02:18

but all this, it turns out to be a

01:02:24

methodological priority, that is, this is the

01:02:28

doctrine of how we understand the whole world, how

01:02:31

we produce new knowledge,

01:02:35

if we are able to produce it, then

01:02:39

we have no problems fooling ourselves

01:02:43

because we can rethink everything that is

01:02:47

offered to us in as a wall and ask a

01:02:50

counter question, but by insisting on this,

01:02:53

you misunderstand something yourself, or you are

01:02:58

taking us for idiots, and if we do not

01:03:04

master the methodology of cognition and

01:03:07

creativity, then we find ourselves in the

01:03:10

position of Winnie the Pooh, who provides

01:03:13

consulting services to dogs

01:03:17

if we have any problem -that is the problem

01:03:20

we are going to save, based on our

01:03:24

interests,

01:03:25

it sets out for us how we should approach this problem,

01:03:29

therefore, a society where epistemological

01:03:33

culture is at zero or close to it, in

01:03:36

principle, cannot be sovereign

01:03:39

because the methodology of cognition and creativity

01:03:41

gives rise to the concept of the historical

01:03:45

process it generates the entire factuality of

01:03:49

science and applied fields of activity, the

01:03:52

theory on which scientific activity is based,

01:03:58

if we return to the topic of yesterday’s

01:04:02

conversation, then the methodology of knowledge and creativity

01:04:06

brings to the canon in every field

01:04:08

of activity, if it is not there, it is impossible to reach the canon in a

01:04:13

conscious manner, you can

01:04:16

solve all particular problems but the combination

01:04:20

these particular decisions will be such that you

01:04:29

will suffer damage from the accompanying effects, up to destruction.

01:04:34

Also, the methodology of cognition and creativity

01:04:37

determines what happens at the

01:04:40

genetic level, what a

01:04:42

healthy lifestyle is, how it

01:04:45

improves the genetics of the population, what an

01:04:49

unhealthy lifestyle is and how it can be

01:04:52

used against you in a

01:04:56

hybrid war mode,

01:04:57

well, it is also clear that all weapons are

01:05:03

also the result of creativity, tactics are also

01:05:08

the result of creativity, strategies are the result of

01:05:11

creativity, that is, if you master it,

01:05:15

then everything else you will master is a matter

01:05:18

of time, if it is closed to you, then you are

01:05:23

doomed to be a hostage of those who owns

01:05:26

it therefore the irreversibility of the result, the

01:05:32

use of controls increases from

01:05:37

6 to the first and the speed

01:05:41

increases from the first to the sixth

01:05:44

because to gather an army and drive it

01:05:47

somewhere is, by historical standards,

01:05:49

a moment

01:05:50

out to change the culture in such a way

01:05:53

that every school graduate understands what

01:05:57

it is they owned at least at a

01:06:01

basic level, which allows you

01:06:04

to be a culturally wealthy person,

01:06:07

it takes time

Description:

Цикл лекций Михаила Викторовича Величко "Достаточно Общая Теория Управления" 3 часть. Плейлист цикла лекций "ЛЕКЦИИ КОБ 2020 М.В.Величко" - https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLG_o5WwhqldeD5OGPcmAakSjbX8ZLapyO Видео с канала https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCKXEl9ZLV0kEJmJosnafXmw

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