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Мощные дивиденды

Какие акции уже сейчас покупаю. JP Morgan, Blackrock, Coinbase, Altria - Будни Уолл стрит #80

Какие акции уже сейчас покупаю. JP Morgan, Blackrock, Coinbase, Altria - Будни Уолл стрит #80

Channel: WALL STREET PRO

Каналы в соцсетях манипулируют фондовым рынком! Экономические новости с Николаем Мрочковским

Каналы в соцсетях манипулируют фондовым рынком! Экономические новости с Николаем Мрочковским

Channel: Nikolay Mrochkovskiy

Дефолта не будет?! Экономические новости с Николаем Мрочковским

Дефолта не будет?! Экономические новости с Николаем Мрочковским

Channel: Nikolay Mrochkovskiy

Газ за рубли. ИСТИННЫЙ смысл. Полный разбор ситуации.

Газ за рубли. ИСТИННЫЙ смысл. Полный разбор ситуации.

Channel: Профита нет. Инвестиции и экономика.

Макроэкономический анализ и финансовые рынки: что нужно знать инвестору

Макроэкономический анализ и финансовые рынки: что нужно знать инвестору

Channel: КИТ Финанс Брокер

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thewallstreetpro

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00:00:05

Greetings ladies and gentlemen, this is the everyday life of the

00:00:07

Moscow Exchange and today we will

00:00:09

talk about securities related to

00:00:12

Russia in the news flow. In general,

00:00:14

everything related to stocks, bonds that

00:00:18

are traded on the Moscow exchanges, all

00:00:20

today we will discuss the key points with you, of

00:00:22

course, so grab some popcorn,

00:00:25

put on rose-colored glasses and let's go

00:00:28

just in case, I remind you of course I

00:00:30

remind you that we have

00:00:32

telegram channels The first thing is for you on the

00:00:34

wall street channel about which the

00:00:35

actual news comes out. What we are

00:00:37

going to talk about today

00:00:39

comes out first on the wall street channel about

00:00:41

there we comment on all this and then

00:00:43

I collect and aggregate all this information and

00:00:45

here we discuss in more detail about the

00:00:47

most key topics. Therefore, if you

00:00:49

want to be a little more aware of the main

00:00:51

topics that are not included here about the

00:00:54

bit street channel about the channel about crypt for those

00:00:57

of you Who wants to E not invest not in

00:00:59

Russia not in America somewhere want

00:01:01

something new interesting to try of

00:01:03

course this is without about my channel Dmitry

00:01:06

Cheryomushkina where I talk about

00:01:07

some interesting things of mine that

00:01:09

entertain me or, on the contrary, alarm me Well,

00:01:12

the channel about dividends on the Moscow

00:01:14

Exchange my X dividends the link

00:01:16

will be all below Subscribe there

00:01:19

will be a lot of information and the last thing

00:01:21

Of course, how could we do without it next

00:01:23

Thursday for those of you who invest

00:01:25

in global markets there will be our

00:01:27

strategic quarterly webinar and the

00:01:29

key topic is of course default USA,

00:01:32

potential default, how to

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prepare our portfolios for this, what

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exactly am I doing? This will be the Central Topic of

00:01:38

our Discussion at the webinar. And of

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course, according to tradition, in addition to the key

00:01:42

news items, we will go through the main

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sectors and see what is there and what

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reports. In general, traditionally about 3-3 and a

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half hours such a tea party with an analysis of

00:01:53

what is happening in global markets

00:01:54

and what we should do with our portfolios, I will

00:01:56

also leave a link below in the description,

00:01:58

so come and participate in this

00:02:01

webinar with me and we move on to

00:02:04

our main topics, let's go, we'll

00:02:07

probably start with the key topic - the

00:02:10

budget deficit in April in Russia amounted to one

00:02:13

trillion rubles and the accumulated effect from

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January to April is already 3.4 trillion

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rubles, which is 500 billion more than

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the Ministry of Finance initially announced at the end of the year,

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again, a lot of statement, a statement that in the

00:02:29

next months everything will be fine,

00:02:31

that there will be no student deficit and everything is so

00:02:33

cool, but the question is that our deficit is

00:02:36

going on and it is increasing; it already

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exceeds the stated limits; some

00:02:43

economists say that it will certainly be 45;

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someone says that it can reach 10.

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Why is this important for us? We need to understand

00:02:52

What budget deficit What does it mean that

00:02:54

the state has to find money

00:02:56

to cover it, it can be found in

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several ways, the classic

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traditional way is to borrow money on

00:03:03

the market, they take the issue of OFZs and borrow the

00:03:06

following method, for example, print

00:03:10

money, the third way is to raise taxes and

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fill the treasury. What is the Ministry of Finance doing now? By the

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way, yes And another way 4 is

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to eat through the money, that is, when you

00:03:22

saved, you saved up, then you can

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pay off your deficit thanks to it,

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now there are essentially two main

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schemes: issuing OFZ and eating through the money,

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different economists, different researchers

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say that by eating through the money, we can

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go through it in a year dash 2, depending

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on how strong the budget deficit will be

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after the Kubyshka is

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eaten, it will be very difficult for the state to borrow on the market.

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Why, when you

00:03:53

have no reserves, no one will just

00:03:56

give you even 10 percent of the money,

00:03:58

most likely funding will become very

00:04:01

expensive, for example 20 %, that is, you will have to

00:04:04

raise a hundred in order to place

00:04:06

at higher rates and this begins to

00:04:08

loosen the entire system, and the

00:04:10

loosening of the system goes on. This, as you

00:04:12

understand, is not very good, so

00:04:14

investors They don’t live for

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today, that is, this is how it will be today

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and tomorrow They are watching forward by

00:04:21

123 Steps forward the naturally growing

00:04:24

budget deficit is starting to stress them out

00:04:26

because this is a dangerous situation for the

00:04:29

ruble. Because if the state

00:04:32

says we can’t borrow, we’ve eaten through the

00:04:34

money, then we’ll print money

00:04:36

and just pay everyone with printed

00:04:38

money, which means inflation means

00:04:39

devaluation, and so on. And just as soon as

00:04:41

it came out, the data on the

00:04:44

budget deficit came out, we had a

00:04:46

funny situation, you know, it’s

00:04:48

a coincidence, exactly on the same day

00:04:50

when the data comes out that in

00:04:54

April the budget deficit is still a trillion,

00:04:57

we have a reversal in the foreign exchange

00:05:00

market, the ruble goes from becoming

00:05:03

more expensive to we see you getting cheaper

00:05:06

4 days in a row 4 days in a row there is a good growth in the

00:05:12

dollar we are 70 5 it turned around and again

00:05:16

80 in four days that is really I do

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n’t know if it’s a coincidence or not I think

00:05:21

it’s not just that investors, large

00:05:24

banks, including you need to understand what it

00:05:26

is investors know investors now

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in the Russian market are either private

00:05:31

investors or large banks

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management companies there are all two categories

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of such institutional investors and

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private investors private investors are

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less concerned that there will be a

00:05:41

budget deficit they do not understand what a

00:05:43

budget deficit is somehow influencing But

00:05:45

large money Where large

00:05:47

managers work, they understand everything perfectly well and

00:05:49

many of them came from the nineties

00:05:51

when there was hyper inflation when there were not

00:05:54

enough reserves and so on. That is,

00:05:55

we all need to understand the main thing now.

00:05:57

Yes, as private investors as

00:05:59

asset managers banks, we need to understand one

00:06:01

important thing that while the budget deficit is

00:06:04

growing, it means that the reserves are being devoured or eaten

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gradually, the reserves are melting, and

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if the reserves start threatening, you think

00:06:13

nothing will happen to the budget in terms of

00:06:16

how this budget cut will

00:06:18

happen, budget sequestration will happen Yes, they will

00:06:20

start cutting what social ones,

00:06:22

first of all, and what about something

00:06:24

something needs to be cut In the current situation,

00:06:26

what can we say only social

00:06:27

payments Social payments In the current

00:06:30

situation, no one will cut As you

00:06:31

understand, yes, therefore, there is really no way out,

00:06:35

so the budget can increase the

00:06:37

main output only if oil prices are

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high with high oil prices there will be

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enough money for the budget and either the prices

00:06:45

should be high or the devaluation

00:06:46

should be at an exchange rate of probably 100 and

00:06:48

current prices. I think the budget will go to

00:06:51

zero and everything will be fine, so that’s what the

00:06:53

people think they understand. Okay, that

00:06:55

means if the prices oil prices wo

00:06:57

n’t even increase here, and given the fact that there is a

00:07:00

default in the USA, a potential recession. Well,

00:07:03

most likely the oil prices in Russia

00:07:04

will not happen, something unusual will happen, which means there is

00:07:07

another option to somehow

00:07:08

stabilize Yes, and reduce the budget,

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start devaluation, and so

00:07:12

Of course, investors are afraid, they are afraid,

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they start buying again in foreign

00:07:16

currency. What did I do? I’m just a little bit.

00:07:19

Unfortunately, everything is already

00:07:21

involved in shares. I bought a little bit of

00:07:24

dollars with a small margin from a broker

00:07:26

and bought foreign currency bonds with these dollars,

00:07:30

now that’s all for now. There are no further

00:07:33

movements. did here But this is what

00:07:36

we must keep in mind with you, it is imperative

00:07:39

that we monitor the

00:07:41

budget deficit every month, if it continues

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to grow, it means that most likely it will go

00:07:43

further there, we must

00:07:46

clearly say for ourselves to speak further, we are going,

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it means that the Moscow Exchange index

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has hit us again at the maximum of the year

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I drew a double top, I don’t know if I drew a double top and

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then will go on to break through it, but the

00:07:59

people here are really active than the

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main activity now on the Moscow

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Exchange there is a main pattern, now we will

00:08:06

show it the main pattern is

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that As soon as the news comes, it

00:08:12

passes through the news feeds about the fact that the

00:08:14

board of directors of some company

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is going to meet to discuss the

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issue of dividends, there is a

00:08:21

movement to the top right away, for example there Yesterday

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the news came out that the directors of MTS

00:08:25

must decide on dividends immediately MTS

00:08:27

ran up And why did it run up

00:08:28

because well, on average, plus more

00:08:30

Mr. Yevtushenkov said that

00:08:32

MTS pays dividends and dividends can

00:08:35

be quite decent for 2022. Well,

00:08:39

look, they used to pay 33, that is, they can

00:08:41

easily pay 30-31-32 rubles and that’s

00:08:44

more than ten percent. Well, of course,

00:08:46

this is growing, there was also news

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that Surgutneftegaz What is the price

00:08:51

to discuss the payment of dividends right there and then the

00:08:53

date instantly the movement goes up, that

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is, where the news about

00:08:57

dividends happens, the movement goes up immediately The

00:08:59

Russian market has turned into such a

00:09:01

dog according to Pavlov, that is, saliva

00:09:03

begins to spray exactly when he

00:09:05

hears the word dividends or even a hint on the

00:09:08

fact that someone will gather there and

00:09:10

discuss some dividends, that is, the market has become

00:09:12

very practical and the people have become very

00:09:14

practical. On the one hand, speculators

00:09:16

seeing this pattern, yes, that is, a pattern

00:09:18

of behavior, yes, that is, meat appears, the

00:09:20

dog begins to have sleep, it begins to leak,

00:09:22

then they play on this immediately run

00:09:24

Long open that is, the word dividends

00:09:26

right away you don’t have to think about it, that is, if not,

00:09:28

well, dividends aren’t paid then

00:09:30

of course they go down, but if there is a hint

00:09:33

that everything might be fine Yes, with

00:09:35

dividends, then you can immediately, of course,

00:09:37

speculators go and buy this is a pattern

00:09:40

that exploits speculators, on the

00:09:42

other hand, private investors

00:09:44

investors It is they speculators who also

00:09:46

exploit this topic because let’s

00:09:48

be honest with you, this is the only thing that is

00:09:50

probably now something more or less

00:09:53

predictable in terms of specifically you

00:09:56

bought a share you received money Yes in the form

00:09:58

dividends for it, that is, if you buy

00:10:00

from MTS, MTS tells you 33 rubles, it

00:10:02

will pay you, then you will get I don’t know 11

00:10:04

12 percent of profitability here and

00:10:07

now, that is, people don’t look at what

00:10:09

will happen in six months, in a year, because

00:10:12

no one understands the forecast now to do

00:10:15

next year with no prospects at all,

00:10:17

yes we can talk for 10 years, we

00:10:20

will hope that in 10 years everything

00:10:22

will be fine, but no one understands what will happen at the end of the year

00:10:24

or even this fall,

00:10:26

so investors began to look blankly, so

00:10:29

for a month in advance the divas announced we were

00:10:31

buying the divas have not announced we are selling there is no

00:10:33

news

00:10:34

the only thing is of course that there is some kind of crackdown happening in the

00:10:36

third echelons.

00:10:38

Well, apparently either big capital

00:10:40

or some kind of manipulation and so on. That is, something

00:10:42

is moving there and so on. I

00:10:44

try not to get involved in it at all. in what

00:10:45

form

00:10:46

But what if we are talking about the first

00:10:48

Echelon of maintenance here the main driver is of

00:10:49

course the divas about dividends We will definitely talk to you at the end

00:10:51

who announced what and

00:10:53

how and where we went

00:10:54

moving on next let’s start with

00:10:57

the news that we definitely need to

00:10:59

discuss firstly

00:11:00

Nabiullina said what supports the

00:11:02

entry of state-owned companies into the stock market, that

00:11:06

is, for them to enter a few

00:11:08

comments here, but state-owned companies can

00:11:10

enter the stock market, this is generally

00:11:13

positive from the negative here is

00:11:16

that even private

00:11:18

companies do not report here, look for

00:11:19

example at the magnet, there is one that seems to be

00:11:22

quite good the magnet retailer company is one

00:11:25

of the largest in Russia,

00:11:27

zero understand, no news, no reports, no

00:11:31

dividends, just silence and there’s a whole

00:11:34

big list, we’ve prepared companies

00:11:35

that have nothing at all. That is, these are

00:11:37

public joint-stock companies that

00:11:40

don’t report in any way.

00:11:42

Question: If even a good company

00:11:45

like magnet before Why don’t we need

00:11:48

state-owned companies to report on the Moscow Exchange, especially if they

00:11:52

won’t report? This

00:11:54

state-owned company is usually the primary one,

00:11:56

subject to sanctions there, and so on, they will say that

00:11:58

they Thank you for the mouse in public, begging

00:12:00

publicly for what to disclose, and so on.

00:12:02

So, as a rule, state-owned companies have the

00:12:05

goal of pleasing the main one to the shareholder of

00:12:08

the state, state-owned companies do not really

00:12:12

want to please the minority shareholder, and

00:12:14

entering the stock exchange essentially means

00:12:16

giving away part of the shares.

00:12:18

But if

00:12:20

the management of state-owned companies, its main goal is to

00:12:23

manage the company and pursue the goals of

00:12:26

the state as the main shareholder, then

00:12:28

it will not particularly pay attention to the fact

00:12:30

that there is a minority shareholder that they want

00:12:32

some reports, although some

00:12:34

presentations, some kind of communication, this is a

00:12:36

very important point that we

00:12:38

should all understand, that is, not

00:12:39

all companies, thank God, have management,

00:12:41

management companies that are loyal to

00:12:44

everyone, but in general I have for these Over the years,

00:12:46

the impression has been that state-owned companies

00:12:47

really just because they are on the stock exchange,

00:12:49

it’s not at all clear why they are on the stock exchange, that’s why the fact

00:12:51

that the Central Bank supports

00:12:55

the entry of a state-owned company, this may be good, but

00:12:57

state-owned companies are not particularly interested in going

00:12:59

to the stock exchange. Why what’s the point? What’s the point of

00:13:02

raising money there? it was read

00:13:04

in front of some minority shareholders by some I don’t

00:13:06

know grandparents who

00:13:07

come, they think so. They see that it’s

00:13:12

mostly older people who come to the state government, that is, the annual shareholder meeting in general.

00:13:13

And they think that these

00:13:16

are shareholders. But we don’t all go there on

00:13:19

them Yes, there is a generation there 35 there 40 yes And

00:13:23

so they think that all the shareholders are

00:13:25

pensioners and begin to treat them

00:13:28

accordingly like a pensioner What do they

00:13:30

want, okay, this is my pain

00:13:32

Unfortunately, yes, when buying shares in a company of

00:13:35

non-residents leaving the Russian Federation, there must be an

00:13:38

obligation part to place shares on the

00:13:40

stock exchange in general, the idea is also a good one, I

00:13:43

like it. It would be nice. When Ikea like

00:13:44

leaves places this kind of

00:13:46

enterprise there. They place it, but

00:13:48

again, to what extent will it be a living

00:13:50

company, that is, they leave something

00:13:52

there? Placed Then it’s like with Children’s

00:13:55

in the world, the majority shareholder is all over again, from whom he

00:13:57

initially bought this entire company,

00:13:58

again it will all be bought out, that is, the

00:14:00

minority shareholders seem to buy these 10 percent of

00:14:02

Free Flow, then let’s say so and then

00:14:04

the majority shareholder comes Well, he waited there for 3-6

00:14:07

months, yes For show, and then

00:14:10

he buys all this about it it can also be bought back

00:14:11

at lower prices. Well, that is,

00:14:13

all this is an idea. I really like the questions,

00:14:16

of course, always in the repost of the implementation, that is, to

00:14:20

what extent will it really be

00:14:21

marketable, how useful will it be, yes, that

00:14:23

is, just for show, it’s well, it’s

00:14:25

useless, we have it, there are hundreds

00:14:28

companies on the Moscow Exchange are half-dead, which

00:14:31

Well, that is, they Why are they

00:14:33

needed at all, no one trades them yes

00:14:36

Okay, I just want to see the

00:14:38

Russian stock

00:14:40

market prosper the Moscow Exchange so that there

00:14:41

really are a lot of investors

00:14:43

so that the companies stay there,

00:14:45

report transparently, implement dividends there with a

00:14:47

majority shareholder I met with minority shareholders,

00:14:49

this is of course my dream and this is

00:14:52

really a dream, it was approaching this

00:14:54

twenty-first year, of course it was

00:14:56

very good in this regard, it

00:14:57

was really very good Well, I hope that after

00:15:00

going through the crisis we will return to this, to

00:15:03

this progressive path of development, the

00:15:05

Etalon group announces its intention to

00:15:07

obtain the status of a primary listing on the

00:15:09

Moscow Exchange on this news the shares

00:15:12

rose 9%, again speculators that is, what

00:15:15

will change in this case in the moment

00:15:17

nothing you see that this is a screenshot from the

00:15:19

main website of the standard and we see that the

00:15:22

Etalon group Etalon group LC is a

00:15:25

British company, a British

00:15:28

public limited company

00:15:30

from the fact that they will acquire a listing on the

00:15:33

Moscow Exchange, the primary one, well,

00:15:36

it will change except well, let’s say Well done Yes

00:15:38

That is, the first step of

00:15:40

credomycylation before moving from the

00:15:43

British Foggy Albion on this

00:15:46

news by 9 percent yes The standard flew out

00:15:48

again, well it flew out it flew out purely

00:15:50

speculatively what will change For now nothing

00:15:52

in the moment, that is, the market has become

00:15:56

very speculative, that is, some

00:15:57

news bangs slap and so on

00:16:00

at this moment is fundamentally nothing at all

00:16:02

It turns out except well, let’s say good

00:16:05

intentions, that is, the standard one showed

00:16:07

good intentions This is already good, but

00:16:10

what’s the point of it no, that is, when

00:16:12

they say that we have blocked your GDRs

00:16:15

in Europe, we will exchange them free of charge for o

00:16:18

Etalon in Russia, this topic will be

00:16:20

good Yes, this topic is correct and

00:16:22

then I agree that there is a point in

00:16:24

flying up somewhere.

00:16:26

Here is the coupon how many of us are we going it

00:16:29

is listed it is still listed here

00:16:31

somewhere in the middle of the fall on

00:16:34

February 224 and the plane We have a plane

00:16:37

for example yes a very plane whose

00:16:40

indicators for 2000 are better than the

00:16:43

standard and it doesn’t need anything it is

00:16:46

trading Well, about the same That is, there seems to be

00:16:48

no point in the standard now.

00:16:50

If a plane with better

00:16:52

fundamental indicators is already, and

00:16:55

even there, initially located in Russia

00:16:57

without any of this blocking loop

00:16:59

in backgammon, and as it were, that’s why I’m even on this, well,

00:17:02

my personal interpretation of the news. How

00:17:04

good but I’m not going to run away from this I’m

00:17:06

not going to buy the next thing, of course,

00:17:08

polymetals are just suffering and

00:17:11

suffering, I’ve already suffered with this, uh, that

00:17:13

means polymetal shareholders

00:17:16

are looking at the reduction in Kazakhstan on May 30

00:17:18

polymetal May apply in July to

00:17:20

suspend trading on LSR and

00:17:22

subsequently carry out delisting Well,

00:17:25

accordingly polymetal has finally started

00:17:26

the process of entering Kazakhstan in the future they

00:17:28

are going to divide the business into

00:17:30

Russian ones and for the business in Kazakhstan there will be

00:17:33

separate shares like polyair Field to field

00:17:36

R type of Russia Field to this is the Kazakh

00:17:39

part and this is how you will

00:17:41

interact somehow But I honestly

00:17:43

told you that there is no point in buying it

00:17:45

on the Moscow Exchange because it is

00:17:46

expensive and it is still blocked, that

00:17:48

is, somehow the plan for the transfer of

00:17:49

Russian GDRs that are traded on the Moscow

00:17:52

Exchange has not yet been

00:17:54

provided by Polymetal, that is, in fact, it is

00:17:56

blocked pieces of paper with which

00:17:57

it is not clear what to do at that time those that

00:18:00

were traded in Kazakhstan. As we

00:18:01

see, they will be absolutely normal, they

00:18:03

will receive dividends and everything.

00:18:05

The only problem The only

00:18:07

problem Of course, these are the parties, for example, the

00:18:09

broker of the free financial Kazakhstan,

00:18:10

uh, that means it happened there so that those

00:18:14

who will have more metal at the moment

00:18:17

allow only selling, that is, the

00:18:19

population is segregated to segregate

00:18:21

Russians. So at first they started only

00:18:24

allowing selling and then Well, in general, in

00:18:27

my opinion, they banned both selling and buying at the

00:18:30

moment when they started only allowing

00:18:31

selling, I decided to close my position

00:18:34

because I already have good experience in how

00:18:38

accounts are blocked they are blocking assets, I decided

00:18:41

that I have enough of one more

00:18:44

potential hanger in shares for years. I have

00:18:47

enough And I decided to sell, but in general, if

00:18:50

someone didn’t sell and in the future everything

00:18:52

will normalize, of course now the prices of

00:18:54

polymetal Kazakhstan are good if, for

00:18:56

example, you have Kazakhstani citizenship, then

00:18:58

she doesn’t look only from Russia but also

00:19:00

from various other countries, for example

00:19:02

Kazakhstan, and that is, you were not segregated in you,

00:19:04

you are just ordinary

00:19:08

people, unlike us who are aggregated, and

00:19:10

you can safely buy

00:19:12

Kazakhstan polymetal at prices much cheaper and

00:19:14

sell, and most importantly, yes, and buy and

00:19:16

sell calmly without the risks of

00:19:17

sanctions pressure uh for there how much is the

00:19:21

third price on the Moscow Exchange and so on

00:19:23

so the best option Of course

00:19:25

if you are in the game if you are allowed

00:19:28

How to find in America on a bus sit not

00:19:30

at the very back but at the front then you can safely

00:19:33

buy That’s how to buy Well, that is,

00:19:36

if there is a desire for this whole topic, the authorities

00:19:38

then Belgium agreed to include and he

00:19:43

Mazay in the sansiz package, they spent a long time convincing

00:19:45

Belgium, apparently Belgium is one of the

00:19:48

key centers for the processing and

00:19:51

financial transactions of diamonds,

00:19:53

apparently they somehow persuaded or broke their hands with

00:19:57

brass knuckles or something else- then apparently the

00:19:59

decision makers Well, they persuaded that is, apparently

00:20:01

they have good methods of torturing those

00:20:05

who because for Belgium this is a loss of a

00:20:06

colossal amount of money, this is

00:20:08

some kind of problem with everything that you can

00:20:11

collect for yourself Well, apparently the methods of torture

00:20:15

in the EU from the side Well from others

00:20:18

participants Who are

00:20:21

the good ones there learned to torture the medieval

00:20:24

Inquisition works very well in the

00:20:26

European Union and everyone agreed even this

00:20:29

Belgium I think it seems to me that if

00:20:31

they tortured Belgium further there Belgium would

00:20:33

agree to give all their

00:20:34

production facilities their entire street

00:20:36

where this all happens cutting I don’t know

00:20:39

who this is torturing I don’t know where I don’t

00:20:41

know who tortured but Belgium couldn’t stand the

00:20:43

torture and still agreed what this

00:20:45

means for Alrosa for Alrosa of course it doesn’t

00:20:47

mean anything good these are new attempts to

00:20:50

somehow circumvent sanctions again send

00:20:53

diamonds most likely at a discount to

00:20:55

some then third countries, the same China,

00:20:57

India, someone else will somehow take it, then

00:21:00

most likely, that is, this is not even from the point of view of

00:21:02

problems with additional logistics,

00:21:04

somehow nothing

00:21:06

was sold there anyway, these are reputational problems. That

00:21:08

is, if the company is under sanctions if,

00:21:12

uh, it’s all wrapped up in triple-quadruple sanctions,

00:21:16

this is a problem even for

00:21:17

Indian counterparties to buy and

00:21:19

they are ready to buy diamonds at a big

00:21:21

discount,

00:21:24

and the next one Yes, this is the sanctions part, which means

00:21:27

that in the coming days, May 19-21, the

00:21:31

G7 anti-Russian sanctions will be expanded and will be lifted

00:21:35

related to energy Yes, first

00:21:38

of all, that is, if we look at

00:21:40

this graph that Bloomberg

00:21:43

publishes weekly on its portal, we see

00:21:45

that Russia sent a

00:21:48

record amount of

00:21:50

oil by sea in the previous week. Yes, by sea. That is, now the

00:21:53

main trade in oil is gradually

00:21:55

moving for Russia by sea That is,

00:21:57

you can transport it wherever you want, you don’t have to

00:21:59

get tied up in pipelines and so on. Naturally,

00:22:01

those who impose sanctions will not like it.

00:22:04

And they begin to

00:22:06

get ready to gather in flocks again, and in

00:22:09

these flocks they begin to discuss

00:22:11

how also to limit plus

00:22:15

a lot of people came out there, that is, the Euro guys

00:22:18

from fuel and lubricants from gs7 gathered there are such

00:22:22

and such look at the statistics that we

00:22:25

have done for the year. That is, the results of

00:22:27

sanctions for the year look like

00:22:30

Russia was selling oil and is still selling

00:22:32

Yes, at a discount, but sells and in quite

00:22:35

good volumes, it breaks records for

00:22:38

deliveries of

00:22:43

petroleum products, damn petroleum products

00:22:46

were sold like that, and they sell like that, and it’s a very

00:22:49

interesting sales scheme, that is,

00:22:51

petroleum products go, for example, to India,

00:22:53

then these petroleum products, which India

00:22:57

buys from Russia, are used in its

00:22:59

own, let’s say Indian market, and its

00:23:01

own production capacity

00:23:03

This same diesel and

00:23:05

gasoline are sent to Europe, so it turned out that

00:23:08

instead of Well, that is, they replaced

00:23:10

one and the other, that is, and the changes in the places of

00:23:12

the terms are the only thing, of course, India

00:23:14

in this case is in a huge plus

00:23:17

because it buys the same gasoline in Russia,

00:23:19

relatively speaking, at a discount in Europe

00:23:22

they are selling theirs at full price

00:23:25

As a result, today, in my opinion, in this Josep

00:23:29

whatever his name is the head of the euro euro the head of

00:23:34

Barrel in short Barrel said that India

00:23:37

will answer India will answer for the fact that they are

00:23:41

heating up on poor Europeans So

00:23:44

now indies should be afraid of

00:23:47

this Josep Barrel otherwise soon

00:23:50

heavenly punishment from his verbal will come to India In

00:23:54

general, the topic is again, let’s say,

00:23:57

interesting Yes, like Again, a new round of

00:24:01

sanctions of attempts to cover up, let

00:24:04

’s see how this will affect not just the G7,

00:24:08

of course, not very simply their power

00:24:10

for now, apparently, until sanctions

00:24:12

begin to be directly imposed, for example, on

00:24:14

India has strict

00:24:17

restrictions, of course, it will cost you I

00:24:19

think because you have to understand that

00:24:21

when you can buy in Russia for 30%

00:24:23

cheaper, not

00:24:25

many will go to us and then sell

00:24:29

the volume. This is huge, it’s billions of

00:24:31

dollars, you know, there’s a net profit of

00:24:33

billions you can earn from this I

00:24:35

I think there will be countries that

00:24:37

will be ready to carry out this GCD, tough sanctions,

00:24:39

let’s see, let’s see Based on this, that

00:24:42

is, based on the fact that Russia

00:24:43

transports by sea more and more,

00:24:45

what companies are interesting for us so that

00:24:47

we don’t have a transfusion from empty empty

00:24:50

space here specifically Of course,

00:24:53

of course we’ll open our market map and

00:24:56

here we see with you who is interesting to us

00:24:58

sovcomflot here is a vivid example of a

00:25:00

state company that, in general,

00:25:03

was privatized not so long ago

00:25:05

in what year, 21 in my opinion Yes, in our country in the

00:25:07

twenty-first twentieth, even in October of the

00:25:10

twentieth year, privatization took place

00:25:12

it was trading at the level of 100 rubles, then

00:25:14

it fell by 30, this is a vivid example, but there

00:25:17

was also not much of a market environment. Although

00:25:18

later things got better here, Sovcomflot,

00:25:21

of course, is the main one of the

00:25:23

main beneficiaries because the

00:25:25

new new

00:25:27

ships are good, long-term contract

00:25:30

transportation of oil and gas is present here,

00:25:33

I’m sure it works good money, this is

00:25:36

one of those companies that I

00:25:37

like, the next news is that

00:25:39

yesterday the Moscow court confirmed the transfer,

00:25:42

that is, in fact, the

00:25:43

back privatization of

00:25:46

fiberboard. We have a

00:25:51

well-developing company that is

00:25:53

now 94 percent owned by the

00:25:56

state. Will there be privatization at VMP?

00:26:00

I think soon we will find out about this. Either it

00:26:02

will be state-owned or it will be

00:26:03

non-state or it will go to

00:26:05

certain structures. We will soon find out the

00:26:08

business itself, DVMP, is super cool,

00:26:11

now good management, the company

00:26:13

has worked a lot, they bought everything, it’s wonderful, the

00:26:17

only thing here is, of course, the

00:26:20

unknown of what will happen next, that

00:26:22

is, if DVMP remains in the hands of

00:26:23

the state, that means they will probably

00:26:26

start paying 50

00:26:29

percent of the net profit from next year. And this is already Oh,

00:26:31

what good money, taking into account the fact that

00:26:33

fiberboard is now trading at foam, if they

00:26:36

confuse around 4 or 5, that is, the

00:26:39

profitability will be very good

00:26:41

and the dynamics of revenue growth will

00:26:43

also be good, so two companies

00:26:45

that I noticed in terms of

00:26:48

who benefits from all this is the

00:26:51

next Austrian paradise, that is,

00:26:54

continuing the theme of sanctions pressure, the

00:26:56

Austrian Raiffeisenbank closed the

00:26:58

accounts of all Russian banks, with the exception of

00:27:00

only the subsidiary Raiffeisenbank, this is

00:27:03

part of the plan to reduce business

00:27:05

activity before leaving Russia In

00:27:07

addition, Raiffeisen also cut its stake in the CIS

00:27:11

and as a result, even Kazakh

00:27:14

banks are now not so easy for them to

00:27:16

carry out certain transactions. That is,

00:27:20

whoever had accounts in the

00:27:22

Austrian Raiffeisenbank, it becomes problematic

00:27:25

here, well, that is, an attempt after all

00:27:27

to isolate this trade as much as possible, it is necessary to

00:27:30

clearly understand this, there is no

00:27:33

need for a mongrel to engage in mischief

00:27:35

like oh yes, we will overcome everything here, it’s hard, it’s hard for

00:27:37

companies, it’s hard for entrepreneurs,

00:27:40

it’s hard for the budget, and this is not just some kind of joke

00:27:43

so that everyone has a hard

00:27:45

time for business to overcome all these

00:27:48

information barriers that Now the

00:27:51

EU has awarded G Saven and so on This is of course

00:27:53

not easy, so there is

00:27:54

no need to relax here. Now let's

00:27:57

move on to the reports that we

00:27:59

have published for the past two

00:28:01

weeks, reports for the quarter are coming out,

00:28:04

reports for 2004 are coming out, in my opinion, everyone was considered

00:28:07

Well, look, Sberbank is the first Yes the

00:28:09

most important thing for us is 470 billion rubles in 4

00:28:12

months. Great, that is, as you understand,

00:28:15

if we continue the same dynamics and everything

00:28:17

will be fine, then of course 1.2 1.3

00:28:19

at least trillion rubles without work -

00:28:22

these are dividends that means more than 30 rubles, and according to

00:28:25

our estimates this is 31 32 rubles at the

00:28:28

current price of Sberbank is about 14%

00:28:31

forward dividend yield we

00:28:33

can see based on the results of 23 years, but a

00:28:36

very important point that we must

00:28:38

understand with you Sberbank Sberbank is a

00:28:40

direct

00:28:41

direct correlation with the economy if

00:28:44

problems with devaluation begin if

00:28:47

problems with inflation begin but not just

00:28:49

some small ones, but really

00:28:51

serious problems, and this will entail a

00:28:53

decline in the economy, a drop in GDP, then

00:28:56

Sberbank will have to create reserves

00:28:59

for depreciation, it will have to create

00:29:02

reserves for bad debts, and this means a

00:29:04

sharp decrease in profits and even

00:29:06

potential losses at the end of the year,

00:29:08

so here it is necessary don’t relax,

00:29:10

don’t think that everything is fine, here we go for 4

00:29:12

months, don’t forget that we are in

00:29:14

the middle of just a huge

00:29:17

geopolitical storm and in the moment. Yes,

00:29:19

maybe the sun is shining there and it’s plus

00:29:21

22 outside and everything is fine, but that doesn’t mean it’s all over. This is

00:29:23

it unfortunately, a person

00:29:25

gets used to everything, but at any moment

00:29:27

Everything can start again And the next

00:29:30

report is the HeadHunter company for the

00:29:33

first quarter of 23, a

00:29:35

fresh one has just come out, here the net profit is 2.2

00:29:38

billion versus 562 million last

00:29:40

year, but last year is last year

00:29:43

just the March report

00:29:45

is not bad HeadHunter To be honest, I

00:29:47

got it in my portfolio but I

00:29:49

don’t have it for one simple reason HeadHunter

00:29:51

is GDR global debenture receipts

00:29:54

and it’s not clear what to do with them not

00:29:56

dividends get not included in the register of

00:29:58

shareholders so unfortunately a

00:30:00

great company And so more luxurious

00:30:02

price But this is the GDR, then a report came out

00:30:05

Positive Technologies loss loss

00:30:08

loss society total loss 460 8

00:30:12

million rubles Despite the fact that the revenue

00:30:16

is good one and a half billion better than

00:30:17

a year earlier, then everything is fine here, but for now we have

00:30:19

a loss this report you and I We are

00:30:22

sorting it out on our website, by the way, don’t

00:30:23

forget that all the reports that I’m

00:30:25

showing now are all sorted out on the

00:30:27

wall street website about we will do for you

00:30:28

analyzes of all almost all of the largest

00:30:31

all of the largest Russian e-companies of

00:30:35

all quarterly reports closer to a quarterly

00:30:37

basis. Therefore, if you are in doubt, 100

00:30:39

hours is not worth buying anything - then you

00:30:41

can look at our analysis of the report and

00:30:44

make a decision whether you like it or not,

00:30:45

this company is fundamental,

00:30:48

so don’t forget the wall street website about

00:30:50

all the reports there every quarter, we are

00:30:52

analyzing now the reporting season

00:30:54

is already in the first quarter, we have analyzed it for 22

00:30:56

years, we have analyzed it, that is, you can directly archive

00:30:58

read see there is a lot that is

00:31:00

useful for you If you are fundamentally

00:31:02

thinking about buying this or that company,

00:31:04

just type it into the search and look Don’t

00:31:07

forget guys, we analyze all these reports

00:31:09

in detail, so

00:31:11

Positive is still in the cold, yes, that is, here’s the

00:31:13

report that came out, look If we with we

00:31:15

will open you and the positive in the quotation Yes, as the

00:31:18

Positive of those who can we have in the

00:31:20

it-company section The only thing now is

00:31:22

yes

00:31:23

and who is not the GDR to but here they have already reached

00:31:26

the maximum now

00:31:28

dividend payments Just wait for now, of course,

00:31:31

wait for now

00:31:33

Enough is already included in the price serious

00:31:36

growth But you see, the first quarter of growth has

00:31:37

not yet happened and the VK VK

00:31:42

report comes out with just revenue, that is,

00:31:45

they decided that why show net profit there,

00:31:47

show operating profit

00:31:48

Well, guys, here’s the VK report,

00:31:52

you know what we need to understand with you about

00:31:54

Wiki forever in fact, this is a

00:31:57

quasi-state company, yes, that is, it

00:31:58

hopes Gazprom media holding it

00:32:02

is owned by Gazprom, respectively, it owns

00:32:04

about the media holding Gazprom is a

00:32:05

state company, that is, Wiki

00:32:07

can say that it is a state

00:32:09

company and now its main

00:32:11

activity is large

00:32:14

databases, that is, the creation of large

00:32:16

databases see Who where What did What

00:32:19

did he write Where did he like it, that is,

00:32:21

it is now becoming such a state-owned

00:32:23

company in a media company that

00:32:27

looks at its users

00:32:28

carefully and

00:32:30

biasedly, so we must understand

00:32:34

that most likely Wiki is a certain well and For

00:32:36

us, this is a

00:32:37

state unitary enterprise

00:32:39

that has my goals and I’m

00:32:43

starting to think that the goals here are clearly not

00:32:46

profit. As you understand, I have now received

00:32:49

huge subsidies in the form of buying

00:32:51

my own bonds, but nevertheless from the

00:32:53

national welfare fund or from the

00:32:55

reserve fund. Well, that is, the state

00:32:57

says Okay. So you have our own

00:33:00

goal We didn’t just buy you Your

00:33:03

goal is some kind of state one,

00:33:04

we don’t know the goal Yes And here’s the

00:33:07

money for this development, that’s why wiki

00:33:09

is starting to build its own

00:33:11

data centers before They used

00:33:13

third-party ones, but apparently some goal is apparently to

00:33:16

collect huge data that will

00:33:18

control so many children and so on That

00:33:19

is, Vicky In my opinion, this is

00:33:22

something like public services Now it has become rivers and

00:33:24

public services, you can, in principle, put

00:33:25

the same thing, only public services

00:33:28

deals with public services And

00:33:29

here Vicky deals with kaiba

00:33:31

commercial services but under the supervision of

00:33:33

close supervision state

00:33:35

so that here, therefore, I don’t know, you started

00:33:37

buying government services, for example, let’s

00:33:40

Wikita government services, you want to buy the

00:33:43

government services portal and understand that the

00:33:45

government services portal has absolutely no

00:33:48

purpose to earn money, government services are

00:33:51

providing citizens with an easy way to

00:33:53

get government services without

00:33:56

going to the MFC and so on So wiki is the

00:33:58

same, that is, in my opinion, VK is a

00:34:01

company that gives you skill boxing, there are

00:34:04

some educational projects in the sphere,

00:34:06

VKontakte gives you an email so that you

00:34:09

post your photo, preferably

00:34:10

more recently, so that you can add

00:34:12

them to cameras for facial recognition

00:34:15

and that’s it as if this is the goal here is the goal of VKontakte

00:34:19

is to close this niche for the state

00:34:21

That is, you are in public services and there you do

00:34:24

n’t keep mail But here you keep it So you

00:34:26

should, as if this is what we should With

00:34:28

you, therefore, the question of an investment

00:34:29

nature is mine the look here

00:34:31

disappears absolutely in Ikea That is, I

00:34:34

even think, Why should they place

00:34:35

their shares at all? I think Why should they completely

00:34:38

close the process of buying back their shares from

00:34:41

the market and becoming a non-public company

00:34:43

because the goal is clearly not

00:34:46

their public goals, it seems to me. Well, okay,

00:34:49

the risers predicted 18 trillion

00:34:52

dividends of Russian companies in

00:34:54

May-June July in the coming months the

00:34:57

Russian stock market will shed a

00:35:00

huge rain of dividends for 18

00:35:04

trillion rubles As you understand, this is not

00:35:06

[ __ ], this money can be used to

00:35:09

buy the actual ones Again, these

00:35:11

shares are from the market Here we have Sberbank IB and

00:35:16

provided there a whole list of What is

00:35:18

possible so

00:35:19

that What profitability is of course the most

00:35:22

key Sberbank now there was a

00:35:23

dividend cut-off for Sberbank, soon

00:35:25

this money will come to the accounts

00:35:27

of investors and investors

00:35:30

will carry it and the money will most likely

00:35:32

return to the market, this means again there will be

00:35:34

additional demand from the shares

00:35:36

Soon we will have Lukoil dividend

00:35:39

cut-off, we will have a cut-off for Tatneft in June,

00:35:41

we have already had a heat of Max St.

00:35:44

Petersburg and so on. That is, a fairly

00:35:46

large amount of money will again splash out into the

00:35:49

market and this will be a good support for

00:35:52

this very market. Therefore, if there is no

00:35:55

some bad news from

00:35:57

the outside, that is, the market has a chance

00:36:00

to grow just at least technically,

00:36:02

even without ideas, just technically on the fact

00:36:05

that people will start buying shares again.

00:36:07

This is the key point that we

00:36:10

need to catch with you here, that is, there will be no

00:36:12

negativity with external markets from external

00:36:14

geopolitics,

00:36:15

then the money arriving in June at the

00:36:18

Moscow Exchange in brokerage accounts

00:36:20

can lead to a rally and they paid out on the stock

00:36:23

market, which

00:36:24

means recommendations on walt

00:36:27

dividends were announced last week by

00:36:28

Lenenergo-Pref 1883 rubles per share,

00:36:31

quite good more than 10 percent Amazing

00:36:33

profitability Strictly according to

00:36:35

the regulations that they have, well done,

00:36:38

well done

00:36:41

next dividends to the gold field announced

00:36:43

dividends for 2022 437 rubles Where in the

00:36:47

yield is a little more than 4% is not much, but

00:36:50

you need to understand that the gold field

00:36:51

is essentially quasi gold only with leverage and here

00:36:54

for and for this you don’t pay leverage, but you

00:36:57

get 437 rubles in dividends for corporate risks,

00:37:00

but now

00:37:01

corporate risks are reduced due

00:37:03

to the fact that the main shareholder transferred

00:37:05

his shares to Well, you can say a fund

00:37:07

that is unlikely to fall under sanctions,

00:37:10

so here corporate risks are sharply

00:37:13

reduced, so we continue to hold the pole

00:37:15

I even Soon I’ll buy a little bit

00:37:18

and that’s it. We also had

00:37:21

dividends on MRI. But to be honest,

00:37:23

we follow the relationship to a lesser extent,

00:37:24

they are not particularly interesting for us,

00:37:27

because there is a risk

00:37:29

of reunification again, you know how MSC

00:37:32

will join FSK FSK back into rosseti it will be a

00:37:35

single huge company And the actual

00:37:37

restoration interval that was

00:37:40

disconnected now rauests back

00:37:45

what is probably summarizing Yes,

00:37:48

you can say about the market by opening it before

00:37:50

your eyes there are

00:37:52

many risks, a lot of potential, that is, both

00:37:56

this and that and that and what I’m doing now I

00:38:00

continue to gain more shares I remind you

00:38:02

that I have a portfolio called

00:38:03

Russia 2033, this is a portfolio of shares, this is a

00:38:06

portfolio of bonds, a portfolio of gold

00:38:08

that I invest on the Moscow Exchange

00:38:10

with an eye to 2033. That is, I believe

00:38:13

that years will pass there until the coming

00:38:16

years, I politics is going somewhere in the direction of

00:38:18

everything - the progressive

00:38:19

development of the country will begin Well, because there is

00:38:22

no other way, that is, we need to develop the country,

00:38:24

we need to do it so that the economy grows,

00:38:27

so that people live well, so that they are

00:38:29

happy. I hope that in the future a

00:38:31

Ministry of Happiness will open in Russia, that is, a

00:38:33

separate Ministry that will

00:38:35

measure the level of happiness and the level of anxiety of

00:38:37

people yes, that is, so that people

00:38:39

don’t worry once again that everything was fine,

00:38:41

journalists so that not all sorts of nasty things are

00:38:43

written on the front pages of the

00:38:46

Soviet Union, on one there, the milk production there

00:38:50

has increased by so much, new enterprises have been opened.

00:38:52

I think that the news that is

00:38:54

now being published in Russia is very

00:38:56

negative. influence on people in general

00:38:58

Because people read what news comes out

00:39:00

What is needed for good ones to come out again

00:39:04

You see, dividends

00:39:06

have been paid, new enterprises have been opened These are the

00:39:09

kind of news that need to be released and You know, well,

00:39:11

not only news is needed and something needs to be done.

00:39:13

I think that in 233 proper

00:39:15

competent management And all these shares, and

00:39:18

even if devaluation happens, all these

00:39:20

shares in rubles will cost many times

00:39:22

more, two to three times more, I don’t know

00:39:25

how they will cost in dollars, but they

00:39:26

will definitely be in rubles. Therefore, if you

00:39:27

earn in rubles and want to

00:39:29

save Of course, these are shares, this is gold,

00:39:31

these are foreign currency bonds, including bonds, they are

00:39:33

now a lot of good, tasty foreign currency

00:39:35

bonds, so take advantage of the fact that

00:39:37

the ruble has not yet devalued much, you also

00:39:39

know a little bit, so you buy shares from

00:39:41

exporters, a little bit of money, a foreign currency

00:39:43

bond, a little bit of gold, a chip and I

00:39:46

think in general, in

00:39:48

the long term, it will definitely be good, somewhere,

00:39:51

something may be lost from time to time due to

00:39:52

some crises, but of course,

00:39:55

don’t forget that the market is

00:39:57

good today. Tomorrow may be bad. There is no need to be

00:39:58

disappointed, on the contrary, if the shares

00:40:00

fall a little we sell gold

00:40:02

we buy good shares when it’s the other way around

00:40:04

Everything is fine we sell shares a little

00:40:06

we buy gold Well and so on

00:40:08

the balancing that you should have that’s

00:40:10

all I wanted to say now I’m in

00:40:12

such a calm you know I’ve gained shares I’m sitting and

00:40:14

watching what will happen next now I’m in such a

00:40:17

wait-and-see attitude for the coming I

00:40:19

probably chose 4 weeks, firstly

00:40:22

because there are risks on the part of the United States, a default

00:40:24

could cause some kind of tsunami and

00:40:26

hit us, and secondly, the politicians

00:40:28

here are tense right now, everyone there is waiting for something, we

00:40:31

’ll see, they won’t wait, so

00:40:34

now it’s better to

00:40:35

sit carefully like this As they say on fences

00:40:38

and look from the outside at This market is

00:40:42

all thanks for your attention don’t forget

00:40:44

please like the comment

00:40:46

This allows this video to move a little

00:40:48

into the recommended ones and gives

00:40:51

me motivation to make further videos for you

00:40:54

thank you for watching

00:40:57

Thanks for the likes Thanks for the comments I always

00:40:59

read comments and see you again bye

00:41:03

[music]

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