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Russian
00:00:00
and gel Good afternoon once again thank you00:00:02
very much for taking the time Pavlo with you Glad to00:00:06
welcome you and your dear00:00:09
viewers Well, naturally, the number one00:00:12
and top topic now not only in Ukraine But00:00:14
also abroad is00:00:16
the liberation of Kherson, the only00:00:19
regional center that the Russians00:00:21
were able to capture after 24 February a-a00:00:24
What do you think? Can these00:00:27
events be called? Can the liberation of00:00:28
Kherson be called a certain turning point00:00:32
in the Russian-Ukrainian war? You are00:00:35
absolutely correct in pointing out that this was the00:00:38
only regional center captured at the00:00:41
very beginning of the war and the Russian army00:00:45
left00:00:46
Kherson and was00:00:51
forced out leaving Kherson a00:00:55
thin time in my interviews and00:00:57
statements, I stated that after the00:01:00
capture of Lisichansk a turning point began to form00:01:04
in this war, the00:01:06
Russians did not have the opportunity to launch00:01:09
offensive actions, but this turning point00:01:14
took a long time to form and it was necessary to00:01:17
impose various factors, including a00:01:21
decrease in the economic capabilities of00:01:24
Russia and the military instrument, we00:01:28
can now fully00:01:29
declare that the Russian00:01:33
army will no longer be able to form, not only that it will not be able to advance,00:01:35
it will not be able00:01:38
to hold the defense on the00:01:42
front line, it will always00:01:46
retreat and the second point is00:01:48
besides the military Victory. Perhaps this is also a00:01:52
political Victory of Ukraine since00:01:55
Russia annexed illegally00:01:58
previously annexed this territory,00:01:59
stated that Russia in Kherson forever, the00:02:01
retreat from Kherson shows Well,00:02:04
Putin’s complete inability to bear00:02:08
responsibility for his own decisions00:02:10
Can this still be called, uh, the00:02:13
retreat from Kherson precisely as a military00:02:15
victory or is it still a00:02:17
military-political one? Victory of Ukraine I am00:02:20
inclined to believe that this is most00:02:23
likely a war. The fact is that00:02:26
Russian Propaganda has learned00:02:36
and we must remember that in Russia in the history of the00:02:41
Russian Empire of the Soviet Union there were00:02:44
moments when they lost their own00:02:46
territory to the city of Moscow00:02:49
and to say that00:02:51
any strong00:02:54
moral the00:02:56
political elite or the00:03:00
public of Russia received damage, I won’t undertake00:03:04
this, it takes time to00:03:06
analyze the political social00:03:09
situation of the Russian Federation, but00:03:11
definitely everyone already understands that in this00:03:14
war everything is smooth for them, will00:03:17
this lead to a00:03:21
balance for the political elite of the00:03:24
Russian Federation to say? It’s too early00:03:26
then Let's talk in this case about the00:03:29
near future at this stage. The00:03:33
Western Right Bank of the Dnieper in the00:03:36
Kherson region has been liberated from00:03:37
Russian occupation forces, what00:03:41
next, what steps may be taken00:03:49
that the Ukrainian army can00:03:52
take depending on the00:03:54
accumulated forces and resources? This00:03:57
also applies to the manpower of00:03:59
military personnel. This also applies00:04:02
ammunition military combat quiet at00:04:06
the moment we do not have information00:04:10
in the state the Ukrainian army is in,00:04:13
so the00:04:15
Ukrainian army has two options: either,00:04:18
like the Kherson region, delivering00:04:20
magnetic strikes of small counter-00:04:23
offensive actions gradually00:04:25
squeezing out opponents of their00:04:27
territories, or the second option is accumulation of00:04:30
resources00:04:31
to carry out a large-scale00:04:33
offensive with a person different goals, let’s say00:04:36
one goal and maybe an attack on the00:04:39
Zaporozhye region with the goal of dispersing the00:04:42
Russian military group in two on the00:04:45
territory of Ukraine with the prospect of00:04:46
clearing the00:04:48
entire south of Ukraine. But let’s say this is what00:04:53
I’m talking about. The Russian army is also thinking about this.00:04:56
Therefore,00:04:59
accurate to the direction to the time00:05:03
when and where the Ukrainian army will strike it00:05:06
will be difficult to say today there have already been00:05:09
messages00:05:11
in telegram channels screenshots of correspondence00:05:15
screenshots of messages that the00:05:18
Russian occupation authorities are00:05:20
calling on residents of the left bank of the00:05:23
Dnieper00:05:25
to evacuate on the one hand,00:05:28
it seems like Russian commentators00:05:32
fear that00:05:34
Ukraine will shell the Left00:05:36
Bank00:05:38
but you know how we know the bridges of the zone and00:05:42
transferring to the left bank along00:05:45
the river bank will not be such an00:05:47
easy task in the next week or two00:05:49
weeks.00:05:51
I think that most likely the abandonment of00:05:55
Kherson does not give reason to think that the00:05:59
political leadership of the Russian00:06:01
Federation has given the image of government to00:06:04
military actions and logic of00:06:07
decision-making, we began to feel military00:06:10
expediency,00:06:12
that is, Russia, the political leadership of00:06:15
Russia accepted political costs and00:06:18
began to listen to00:06:21
Kherson. It is impossible to hold back those combat-ready00:06:25
units that are there and they need to be00:06:28
destroyed, therefore, therefore, it is most00:06:31
likely likely that the war the leadership of the00:06:34
Russian Federation understands that with00:06:36
so many military instruments00:06:38
they have such a long front line, it00:06:44
starts from the left of, let’s say,00:06:48
the Kherson region and ends in the00:06:52
Kharkov region, it will be 1,000 km and00:06:56
most likely the Russian army00:06:57
can therefore take the path to00:07:03
stabilize the front lines and00:07:05
at the same time shorten them so that they00:07:08
can maintain the required amount00:07:10
of forces and is required for, let’s say, a00:07:14
kilometer of front in defense. Therefore, I00:07:18
believe that most likely they are thinking through00:07:22
all the options and most likely they will00:07:26
build new lines of the front line00:07:31
and with the offensive of the Ukrainian army I have00:07:34
n’t already told you.00:07:35
This is the New Front Line according to you00:07:39
opinion On which00:07:40
cities on which regions can the00:07:43
Russians rely unambiguously?00:07:46
This is most likely This will be the line from the00:07:52
isthmus, the isthmus does not begin there00:07:55
and that’s where the00:07:57
affectionate Donetsk region00:08:00
They will not allow them to be divided into two00:08:05
parts, the tangle will be carried out in00:08:08
conditions of damage to the Crimean post to me00:08:11
there will be a free road to Crimea I think00:08:14
that the minimum line photo What they00:08:17
want to come to is along this00:08:22
line, war is a confrontation00:08:26
What the army thinks in this region And what it00:08:29
will do is still visible in the00:08:31
future Well, as usual, the structure of the00:08:34
Ukrainian armed forces is its own the vision00:08:37
is always of war and this vision is somewhat00:08:40
different from the conduct of the Russians; all these00:08:43
events were very often considered from the00:08:46
point of view of00:08:47
Russia's potential use of weapons of00:08:51
mass destruction personally. We believed00:08:54
that this was a fairly high probability00:08:56
in your opinion now after00:09:00
the dream has returned00:09:04
to our legal hands again in the hands of Ukraine,00:09:08
how great is the possibility of using00:09:11
nuclear weapons, chemical00:09:14
biological weapons from Russia,00:09:16
you know? Let’s immediately discuss that00:09:19
biological chemical weapons,00:09:21
the probability of their use is 000:09:25
because the territory of Ukraine is00:09:28
mainly dominated by the eastern ones, they00:09:35
will move along with light, and as00:09:38
for biological weapons,00:09:40
biological weapons exist, but the00:09:44
likelihood of their use is zero00:09:47
Because it is not controlled,00:09:50
and as for the use of nuclear00:09:53
weapons, I have always said that their00:09:56
use under these conditions is equal to a very00:10:00
low scenario. I believe that the entry of00:10:05
Ukrainian troops, the00:10:08
likelihood of the use of tactical00:10:10
nuclear weapons is00:10:12
small, very small, and in principle and in00:10:17
principle, I am increasingly convinced that the00:10:20
Russian leadership of the Russian Federation is00:10:23
increasingly moving away from the prospect of00:10:26
using tactical nuclear weapons00:10:28
for the Revenge that they received through00:10:32
official unofficial channels, they are, let’s say,00:10:35
Western00:10:38
Western individuals who are close to very00:10:41
official ones, they began to threaten the00:10:43
physical00:10:45
elimination of Putin, his acceptance decisions00:10:49
to use nuclear weapons involve the00:10:51
participation of these factors00:10:53
in general use00:11:03
Well, that is, Putin was directly told that he00:11:07
would be physically destroyed if he used00:11:09
nuclear weapons,00:11:12
this is a statement said by John00:11:16
Bolton,00:11:17
a man who was the00:11:19
national security adviser of the United00:11:21
States of America00:11:22
and a man who understands what these words mean00:11:25
it is necessary to answer,00:11:26
but nevertheless, you mentioned that Crimea00:11:31
still remains some kind of the last00:11:34
Yes, the military-political bastion of Russia00:11:36
Crimea is a Rubicon when the00:11:39
armed forces of Ukraine approach Crimea, what next I00:11:42
think that00:11:46
with the liberation of Crimea There is a very00:11:50
high probability that the whole00:11:53
ideological the political machine in the00:11:56
Russian Federation will be broken00:11:59
and through Crimea They will not be able to digest00:12:01
they will be able to explain and it is becoming increasingly difficult to00:12:05
explain gestures of goodwill the surrender of00:12:08
Kherson Well, I believe that Crimea is00:12:12
such a sacred thing for them, such a00:12:16
sacred thing for them The topic is its loss00:12:19
They are nobody to anyone will not be able to explain And at00:12:24
this moment, if a decision is not made about00:12:27
actual nuclear weapons, we can00:12:30
assume that they will secretly be released on their00:12:32
border in 1991,00:12:35
but will any of them lead to the exhaustion of the00:12:39
Russian-Ukrainian armed00:12:42
conflict? Most likely not, in order for the00:12:47
Russian-Ukrainian armed00:12:49
conflict to change political00:12:51
paradigms in the Russian Federation of the00:12:55
Russian Federation, by the way, this is very00:12:59
important Well, I think all the same, a small00:13:01
Remarque Russia will have to come to terms sooner00:13:04
or later with the fact that Crimea00:13:06
will return to its native harbor in the Ukrainian00:13:09
harbor No, look, no one has00:13:13
such a point of view that Putin somehow00:13:16
thus withdrawing his troops from Kherson,00:13:20
he was counting on a respite, he was counting on the fact00:13:23
that00:13:26
Russian-Ukrainian negotiations might begin, perhaps00:13:28
with the mediation of the West, do00:13:30
you support this point of view,00:13:33
could Putin, giving up sleep, count on the00:13:37
intensification of diplomatic contacts00:13:40
between Russia and Ukraine, you know there have00:13:43
always been a lot politicians00:13:46
and the Western political elite, let's say00:13:50
there are people00:13:52
who are for Mish who are in favor of resolving this00:13:57
conflict through negotiations for00:13:59
various reasons. These people00:14:02
Some of these people Some of00:14:04
these politicians00:14:05
of various kinds of businessmen have channels of00:14:09
communication with Putin, most likely they seem to00:14:14
interact, which also, on the contrary, harms the00:14:17
Russian Federations they always00:14:18
receive some kind of Rainbow hopes00:14:21
But I said this when the first00:14:25
Rammstein was that we should end with Russia in its00:14:30
current form Russia Iran North00:14:34
Korea these are three rogue countries00:14:38
that threaten the entire world00:14:41
security system and these countries will00:14:44
end in the previous one of their own In00:14:47
previous interviews, you said that00:14:49
you think that the New Year00:14:51
holiday period will be some kind of turning00:14:55
point in the00:14:56
Russian-Ukrainian war, now you still have the00:14:59
same opinion or is it still a00:15:01
turning point? I return to the first question,00:15:03
or is the turning point already coming00:15:06
exactly like would00:15:09
say00:15:20
because the economy of the Russian00:15:23
Federation00:15:27
Russian Russian military instrument is00:15:30
starting to fall apart and I think that00:15:40
we will see the maximum maximum depth of the turning point this year in the New Year's perspective and00:15:45
that temporary period in the New Year we00:15:49
will be able to see how weakened the00:15:51
Russian Federation is00:15:53
and how much the Ukrainian army has been able to advance00:15:56
and on the basis of that00:16:00
data in that situation, what will happen in the00:16:04
new year, we will be able to00:16:05
predict the00:16:07
coming months00:16:09
understood, understood Thank you for the clarification and again00:16:12
returning to the beginning of our interview,00:16:15
you said such a very interesting idea00:16:18
that the political leadership of Russia00:16:21
began to listen to the military00:16:24
leadership in this regard question00:16:27
When Russia when the military leadership00:16:31
of Russia and maybe the political00:16:33
leadership of Russia will reach a consensus00:16:36
and understand that the war needs to end This00:16:40
I always said this some00:16:42
Ukrainians I didn’t understand They think that00:16:44
I don’t believe victory will00:16:56
not solve the conflict two three five they00:17:01
will gather forces again and will move towards00:17:04
you again so that everything happens simultaneously00:17:08
with the exit to, say, Crimea or on the border00:17:12
with the Russian Federation. You had00:17:14
Border conflicts. The Russian00:17:16
Federation had a completely different00:17:18
political system, that is, it is necessary that00:17:20
all the tools went in parallel with military00:17:24
successes on the battlefield with economic00:17:26
strong political pressure all these00:17:30
three instruments that will00:17:33
put pressure on the military00:17:34
political leadership can lead00:17:37
to the fact that, say, you will already enter Crimea without00:17:42
any resistance,00:17:43
you entered Kherson,00:17:46
when these conditions are formed, you00:17:50
know that already in the Russian Federation there is00:17:52
already a very strong chatter going on00:17:57
and you and I can come to different00:18:01
scenarios,00:18:02
that a person will come to power who00:18:04
will be more militant or,00:18:08
say, in the Russian Federation,00:18:11
such people will come who will say that everything is00:18:14
okay, we have gone too far there, we need to00:18:16
negotiate normally with the world,00:18:19
all this is very difficult to predict00:18:22
and It’s unrealistic, I’m trying to00:18:25
communicate with my colleagues and various00:18:30
analysts, but you understand, this is an00:18:33
unpredictable process. His Majesty00:18:35
has not been canceled, that is, I can00:18:38
correctly understand that the final00:18:41
point in the war will be reached00:18:43
only with a change in the top political00:18:46
leadership of Russia, and this top00:18:50
political leadership should take an00:18:54
unambiguous position on the Ukrainian side definitely you can go to00:18:57
your borders, but00:18:59
with the Russian Federation if it’s not there.00:19:13
Well, that is, for now, for Ukraine, the more00:19:18
likely option is the existence of Israel00:19:22
and Palestine. I think that00:19:26
top strategic planning00:19:29
is carried out by the Western partner00:19:34
and they plan this operation very well, because of00:19:36
this they metering the00:19:39
supply of weapons to you so that all three of these00:19:44
tools work simultaneously.00:19:47
I think that most00:19:49
likely00:19:51
with the entry of the paradise army into the Crimea of the00:19:55
Russian Federation there will be a change in the00:19:58
political paradigm00:20:00
and the country will crumble from the00:20:05
impact of problems,00:20:08
but we will hope then that this will00:20:10
happen in the near future I think00:20:14
what is the prospect of 6 months maximum of00:20:17
a year00:20:18
thank you very much for finding time for us00:20:21
Congratulations on the capture of your city00:20:26
good luck Victory to Ukraine Glory to Ukraine00:20:30
Glory to the HeroesDescription:
Политическая власть Кремля передала бразды правления военным. Россия будет отступать дальше, пытаясь снизить линию фронта. Но рубиконом для нее станет Крым, куда украинские войска зайдут уже через полгода. Прогнозы одного из самых авторитетных военных экспертов Агиля Рустамзаде. Смотрите в эксклюзивном интервью Павла Васильева. Подписывайся на Факти тижня: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCMm16ixuvEw8Uf6d5s549Cw Официальный сайт "Фактів тижня": https://ft.ictv.ua/ Подписывайтесь на канал: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCG26bSkEjJc7SqGsxoHNnbA?sub_confirmation=1 Факти тижня от ICTV на Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/unsupportedbrowser ICTV ONLINE https://ictv.ua/ua/index/online
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