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венедиктов

пастухов

живой гвоздь

политика

00:00:34

Friday May 3 at the microphone Nikita

00:00:37

Vasilenko Greetings to all our

00:00:39

viewers and listeners, you are watching or

00:00:41

listening to the Youtube channel living nail and in

00:00:44

its place the final program of this

00:00:45

week 2024 I am pleased to welcome our

00:00:48

guest, researcher at

00:00:50

Georgetown University and the Center for Strategic

00:00:53

Studies of International Politics,

00:00:55

Maria Snegovaya, with us today visiting

00:00:57

Maria, hello Hello Nikita, let's

00:01:00

immediately move on to the main topics, the

00:01:03

main media theme that literally blew up the

00:01:05

entire audience who wants

00:01:07

democratic Change in Russia, this is

00:01:09

the completion of a trilogy of films called

00:01:12

traitors, which was made by Maria's team of

00:01:15

singers. And as I understand Maria, you

00:01:18

watched it and you didn't like it,

00:01:21

well I’ll start with the fact that I’m actually a student of

00:01:24

Evgeniy Grivin, he was my

00:01:26

supervisor. And it’s no coincidence

00:01:30

that I’m a liberal in my views and, in

00:01:33

general, welcomed the reforms, understanding

00:01:35

their necessity. But in addition,

00:01:37

being his student, I have consequences in

00:01:39

my own research

00:01:42

has worked a lot on this topic and of course

00:01:45

I am very sad when one of the

00:01:47

main opposition political forces

00:01:49

begins to actually repeat the themes and

00:01:53

rhetoric of the Kremlin because well, what is the

00:01:55

main message, starting with the title of this

00:01:59

series? Yes, the name is very strong and it

00:02:01

clearly puts everything into perspective It’s

00:02:04

immediately clear what the authors want to say. And

00:02:07

about the fact that you stole everything from us again, you

00:02:09

unfortunate poor Russians. But you. The

00:02:11

damned liberals stole, it’s clear

00:02:15

what the critics are saying. No, it’s not about

00:02:17

liberals, it’s not about reformers, it’s

00:02:19

about the damned oligarchs, but

00:02:21

everything is clear and unambiguous starting from Yeltsin

00:02:24

right up to the appointment of Putin from the

00:02:26

very beginning of the Yasensky era, we are

00:02:29

shown that, in general, the immorality and

00:02:32

theft and corruption of these people

00:02:34

who were at the helm of Russia at that time

00:02:37

are actually the reason for where

00:02:40

Russia finds itself today. I have a very there are

00:02:43

many complaints about this picture. Well, let's start with

00:02:47

the fact that, in my opinion, the very fact of its

00:02:49

appearance speaks of the crisis that

00:02:51

FBK is in today after the death of

00:02:53

Alexei Navalny after the start of the war, in

00:02:57

my opinion,

00:02:58

many many Russian oppositionists are

00:03:01

faced with the problem that

00:03:04

their agenda seems to be disappearing, as far as I can tell

00:03:07

Russians need either the fact that you are waging a

00:03:10

monstrous criminal war, our country

00:03:12

and we must stop doing this and And we are,

00:03:16

as it were, responsible for this But this is an

00:03:17

unpleasant topic because Many people

00:03:19

in Russia do not want to listen to this

00:03:21

and for many it is unpleasant and as we see in

00:03:25

general - then Russian society today

00:03:27

has united to a lesser extent

00:03:29

around its military agenda,

00:03:31

respectively, this does not come in Marie But

00:03:33

can I still clarify with your

00:03:35

permission today is May 3rd, the

00:03:37

birthday of Maki Aveli, the man who

00:03:39

laid the foundation, one might say, of modern

00:03:40

political science in this regard as well a team of

00:03:44

singers, in fact, it does

00:03:46

n’t even create, but sets a certain

00:03:49

agenda and forces people to adapt to this agenda.

00:03:51

This is for one wing,

00:03:53

for example, for liberal-minded

00:03:55

politicians who want to democratically

00:04:00

knock the rug out of their feet by showing that

00:04:02

yes. We believe in the same way that these

00:04:05

liberals are in nineties guilty Well,

00:04:06

Putin is also the same liberal, that is,

00:04:08

moreover, they classify him as one of them, isn’t it

00:04:11

ineffective Nikita, you’re asking me to

00:04:13

finish my thought Which means that’s exactly what I was

00:04:15

getting at with the second one, that is, either you’re

00:04:18

telling the Russians the problem as it

00:04:20

is. It’s unpleasant. like today in

00:04:21

Nazi Germany formally How do you

00:04:23

propose to Nazi Germany from

00:04:25

abroad to carry out a political agenda without

00:04:28

indirectly accusing people of

00:04:30

participating in a criminal war and the second

00:04:32

alternative Yes, trying to change the topic is

00:04:34

not to be discussed at all And besides, I will

00:04:37

remind you that the FBK was an investigation into

00:04:38

corruption in the army but they were accused in

00:04:41

many ways that today such

00:04:42

investigations also play into the

00:04:44

hands of the Kremlin because they actually

00:04:47

help the Kremlin identify its

00:04:49

pain points and their gold, respectively.

00:04:52

We see that this film is actually a

00:04:55

demonstration of the crisis of the previous agenda

00:04:57

Yes, it is very difficult In addition, Well, there is still a

00:04:59

problem just with access to sources of

00:05:01

information, many of my journalists who

00:05:03

are involved in investigations say

00:05:05

that, well, their sources simply closed with the beginning of the war, it is

00:05:07

very difficult today

00:05:09

to get any insights on the basis of

00:05:11

which to build an investigation

00:05:13

accordingly. We see that there is a search for

00:05:15

another agenda and here is a popular Topic

00:05:18

says about the fact that today we will be

00:05:19

engaged. Which

00:05:21

means they are trying to reach

00:05:23

Putin’s electorate in this way, but forgive

00:05:25

us that we have some kind of free elections.

00:05:28

How can we do

00:05:30

this? How can we

00:05:32

reach out and

00:05:33

convert this supposed support

00:05:35

that They today, with the help of

00:05:37

these films, they receive some kind of political

00:05:40

capital; this is absolutely out of the

00:05:41

question today. In addition, I would like to draw your attention to the fact

00:05:45

that there is a real problem of falling

00:05:48

views. That is,

00:05:50

Navalny’s investigation used to get

00:05:53

7-10 million views; today this film is

00:05:57

traitors and then many people who

00:05:59

watch they are critical of this

00:06:00

film, that is, they watch most likely

00:06:02

often because of that critical attitude,

00:06:05

not necessarily that they support And

00:06:06

today it’s 35 million, that’s if you

00:06:09

watch it and it’s already a success Well, that is, there

00:06:11

is a real problem, it’s very difficult

00:06:13

to reach out to the Russian the electorate

00:06:14

is apparently an attempt to search for an agenda, but

00:06:17

here is my key point. And in the search for

00:06:21

this agenda, FBK is moving away from what

00:06:24

they are traditionally strong in; this is not an

00:06:26

investigation. But this research is

00:06:29

working with sources that they themselves do not

00:06:32

create, FBK, that is, they themselves are the envy

00:06:34

of others sources, and often, unfortunately,

00:06:37

without a link to and the original source of

00:06:40

information, but unfortunately they have not

00:06:44

developed a methodology for how to work with

00:06:46

such material and we see this,

00:06:49

many sources, for example, to which they

00:06:50

refer, for example, what is it worth

00:06:52

remembering Korzhakov or

00:06:55

Berezovsky’s testimony is not very reliable

00:06:57

sources to put it mildly there is a huge

00:07:00

amount of literature accumulated over the years

00:07:01

that has dealt with these

00:07:03

issues If you really want to

00:07:05

do research emphasize

00:07:07

this is not an investigation this is another different

00:07:09

matter yes This is a completely different story

00:07:11

this also requires certain

00:07:13

skills But then try to do it

00:07:17

well Talk to people who I’m

00:07:19

really working on this issue

00:07:21

because the nineties

00:07:23

alone have been studied in sufficient detail

00:07:27

and well. And then he builds his

00:07:29

narrative on the basis of high-quality

00:07:31

materials from those professional authors

00:07:33

who actually did this. But

00:07:36

instead, we see an attempt, as if

00:07:39

it turns out so well enough

00:07:44

tendentiousness is very dubious, often

00:07:47

secondly, the materials are selected in such

00:07:49

a way that the Armed Forces actually again

00:07:52

builds a line in the audience’s minds that

00:07:54

damned Yeltsin and the liberals

00:07:56

stole our country. Yes, and somewhere else at the

00:07:59

end they are washing Putin. But this is not even the

00:08:02

main agenda A about the war in

00:08:04

Ukraine, a really monstrous problem

00:08:06

that we are facing today. Not mentioned in

00:08:09

general, the result is that this is once again

00:08:11

splitting the opposition, you see, except

00:08:14

better than me, that these are huge

00:08:17

cries of indignation, the basis of the split is the

00:08:22

anti-creep Ukrainian front, which

00:08:24

has been trying for a long time to organize the opposition, what

00:08:26

really needs to be done today Well

00:08:28

and a lot of viewers This is the strain that

00:08:31

Krevo Propaganda

00:08:36

has been pushing our our resources our

00:08:39

wealth that we supposedly had all these years, which in

00:08:41

reality is of course not so, in fact it

00:08:44

works into the hands of the Kremlin. I don’t see

00:08:46

absolutely

00:08:48

any clearly good result in the fact

00:08:51

that something like this is happening, but also Of course, in

00:08:54

the long term. This once again seems to

00:08:56

cast another shadow, which

00:09:00

really was a very difficult,

00:09:01

difficult period. I would like to ask

00:09:03

what, in principle, Russia was waiting for;

00:09:04

it is a very complex country; it has been for 100 years. Well, there for a century

00:09:07

it was under totalitarian experience; you expected

00:09:10

that liberal democracy would be immediately built

00:09:11

but at the same time,

00:09:14

the nineties were the rarest case in

00:09:16

Russian history; you can

00:09:18

literally count them on the fingers of one

00:09:20

hand when there were still some

00:09:22

Freedoms, and they were given by the very

00:09:26

hand of that very Yelna. With a light hand,

00:09:30

again, the film draws negatively

00:09:34

far from ideal I write myself, he

00:09:36

generally belonged to the nomenklatura and

00:09:38

did not do a lot and there were many mistakes,

00:09:40

of course, but nevertheless you still have to

00:09:43

be grateful for what was done.

00:09:45

And at least Freedoms were given, which in

00:09:47

general is absolutely unique in Russian history.

00:09:49

you can remember

00:09:51

maybe Alexander II, maybe there was a very

00:09:53

short period

00:09:54

there at the beginning of the century, but there really

00:10:00

wasn’t a history of such periods,

00:10:02

how are we going to learn from past

00:10:04

mistakes if we don’t even appreciate this thing that is so

00:10:07

unique and important and

00:10:10

today from all parties

00:10:12

are completely trying to paint this in black,

00:10:14

while absolutely not mentioning what

00:10:17

is the real problem, namely

00:10:18

war. And of course Nikita, if I may, I

00:10:21

would also like to talk about how I

00:10:22

actually see the problem in the nineties,

00:10:25

since my work, my research, is

00:10:27

very a lot concerns

00:10:30

Maria, but can you before that? A small

00:10:32

question also

00:10:34

concerns the comments

00:10:36

that you made on the pages of your

00:10:38

Telegram channel. By the way, I urge

00:10:39

our viewers to actively subscribe to

00:10:42

Maria Snegova’s Telegram channel. You can

00:10:44

easily

00:10:45

find it in the search line and you noticed that

00:10:49

some actors are missing, and probably the most

00:10:51

important actor in this whole

00:10:53

study, they exclude society from the

00:10:56

analysis and to what extent is it

00:10:58

really whose actor to describe the

00:11:01

era? Absolutely true. This generally

00:11:04

amazes me in the Russian discourse of the

00:11:07

Russian opposition, people who, in

00:11:09

principle, call themselves democrats and

00:11:11

position themselves as opponents to an

00:11:13

authoritarian regime, yes, that is, they

00:11:15

just want to give people subjectivity Yes

00:11:18

It would seem that there is rhetoric here. At the same time,

00:11:21

in their analysis they usually completely

00:11:22

throw out society as a

00:11:25

subject from the analysis, the same thing

00:11:29

today, that is, I also work a lot on the

00:11:31

early nineties, too

00:11:34

attempts to understand what the problem was with

00:11:36

transit, why it was not successful,

00:11:38

why liberal democracy did not happen in our country. In

00:11:40

fact, in fact, we can

00:11:43

say that democracy did not really

00:11:44

happen. Although once again, there was a

00:11:46

period of relative freedoms in

00:11:50

certain areas in the 0s, one of the

00:11:54

reasons is the fact that in the early

00:11:57

nineties, at the helm of Soviet Russia,

00:12:00

basically all the same

00:12:01

nomenklatura representatives of the Soviet Elites remained,

00:12:04

you ask: Why did they

00:12:05

remain there? For example, today,

00:12:07

in one of my work, I create

00:12:09

databases on transit in all post-Soviet

00:12:12

republics, not everywhere like that it was,

00:12:14

say, in the Baltic countries. But by the

00:12:17

end of the eighties and the beginning of the nineties,

00:12:19

the establishment had completely changed, and

00:12:21

even in Georgia in Armenia there would have actually been a

00:12:24

sufficient change in the Elite. But in

00:12:26

Russia, for example, a huge number

00:12:28

remained at the helm. Why But

00:12:30

look at the election results which,

00:12:33

by the way, were really

00:12:34

free and relatively fair

00:12:37

during this period. Look at the

00:12:39

percentage at the helm that

00:12:42

representatives of the Communist

00:12:44

Party retained; they absolutely dominated in

00:12:47

all positions, minus maybe in

00:12:50

a sense, then Leningrad and

00:12:52

Moscow, for the most part, they dominate,

00:12:54

moreover, everything the red train, of

00:12:57

course, the red train of the governor

00:13:00

is a different story, but in general,

00:13:02

nowhere if Look at the early elections

00:13:04

there, the beginning of the nineties, in fact,

00:13:07

nowhere else, as if still late,

00:13:09

the Soviet Union is preserved in fact,

00:13:12

nowhere except, I repeat once again, in big

00:13:14

cities, the so-called

00:13:16

independent candidates were not able to get

00:13:17

the majority This is not just a red belt,

00:13:19

this is, in principle, the whole country. And minus

00:13:22

Belarus, Russia in this regard at that

00:13:25

moment had the largest number of

00:13:30

representatives of the old lit. dominated and remain in power. Then the same

00:13:32

trend continued in

00:13:34

post-Soviet Russia. In the ninety-third

00:13:36

year, in the elections, the famous Russia's phrase

00:13:38

is stupid, the majority got

00:13:40

the LDPR, it's a chauvinist. It's a cooler than Putin's

00:13:43

chauvinist, an absolutely imperial

00:13:45

party, and there the communists were leading the way.

00:13:48

And how do you

00:13:51

imagine the reforms will be successful under such conditions, we

00:13:54

know that's why Gaidar Yan has written a lot,

00:13:57

there are a huge number of sources

00:13:59

that show how at each stage of

00:14:02

the reforms were blocked very actively by the

00:14:04

same Supreme Council, which ultimately

00:14:06

led to clashes, but also after by

00:14:08

various groups, including the

00:14:10

nomenklatura, which largely remained

00:14:12

in power. And

00:14:15

subsequently, the parliament, which

00:14:18

was dominated by these chauvinist

00:14:19

revanchist groups, the question is: How are

00:14:22

these people these groups of such views

00:14:24

remained in power during free elections

00:14:27

because they had a

00:14:29

pleasant voter, and accordingly,

00:14:31

naturally, we get that

00:14:33

Russian society, indeed, based on

00:14:35

its will from the phenomenon, was not very

00:14:38

ready for a liberal democratic

00:14:41

transition; moreover, if you look at the

00:14:43

end of the nineties then especially after the

00:14:45

crisis of ninety-eight.

00:14:46

Initially, this revanchist request became

00:14:49

very intensified. And when the Yeltsin family,

00:14:52

about what in detail, Skat Maria singers were looking for an

00:14:55

heir to Yeltsin, but I won’t

00:14:58

describe that naturally it was in an

00:14:59

undemocratic way, and so on, who were

00:15:01

they looking for? So they started with a survey

00:15:04

society about this as a social

00:15:05

request, how they understood it, how they

00:15:07

saw the issues, Pavlovsky,

00:15:09

Gleb talked a lot about this in his

00:15:11

interviews, including with the famous political scientist

00:15:12

Ivan Krastny, and she was looking for a

00:15:15

representative of precisely

00:15:17

these people, Revan, who would appeal

00:15:19

precisely to these revanchist to groups that

00:15:22

felt like Transit Losers and

00:15:24

wanted someone with a strong

00:15:27

hand to come and launch reforms,

00:15:29

that is, I firmly emphasize from the very

00:15:31

beginning of the nineties until the end, it was

00:15:33

very noticeable that Russian society is

00:15:36

not ready for reforms, they are painful and, in

00:15:38

principle, they it would like to turn

00:15:40

back what happened in the end, Putin

00:15:43

actually turned out to be in many ways

00:15:45

representatives of this. This is exactly what he responded

00:15:48

to this request. Well, the last thing

00:15:50

I will say is that if you look at the principle of

00:15:54

transit in all Soviet countries according to the

00:15:56

communist principle in the region, a

00:15:59

lot has been done about this again

00:16:00

For example, Rostislav

00:16:01

Kapelyushnikov did a lot of research and

00:16:04

saved a lot of money on this issue. In principle,

00:16:06

no one likes reforms anywhere and no one in different

00:16:09

countries No matter how they were carried out, one can

00:16:11

argue whether it was necessary to make personalized vouchers

00:16:13

or not to make personalized vouchers, but in all

00:16:16

countries Wherever Whichever methods

00:16:18

carried out Wherever whoever less

00:16:20

corrupt more corrupt

00:16:21

not corrupt at all the majority of the

00:16:24

population, in principle, believes that the reforms

00:16:27

were carried out incorrectly looking for money.

00:16:29

However, this figure varies, if

00:16:32

in Russia there is such an opinion

00:16:34

there, 90 plus the percentage of the population then conditionally

00:16:37

there in central Europe there it is already

00:16:40

closer to 50%, that is, reforms, in principle, are not

00:16:43

popular everywhere, this is a very painful

00:16:45

story for people, in fact, they are destroying

00:16:48

their usual way of life. Yes, no one likes them, but

00:16:51

the question is that society, in principle, at the

00:16:54

beginning of this period is ready

00:16:57

to focus on some

00:16:58

pro-reformist the agenda is ready

00:17:00

to throw off the burden of the past or not And we

00:17:04

see, unfortunately, that Russian

00:17:05

society is simply based on the election results

00:17:07

which at that time I repeat once again,

00:17:08

in the early nineties they were definitely

00:17:10

free and more or less And honestly there were a

00:17:14

lot of parties that

00:17:15

participated and complaints about them In

00:17:17

ninety-three years, for example, No one

00:17:19

makes any special demands, but for the elections, nevertheless,

00:17:22

society clearly expressed

00:17:24

its request that

00:17:28

Russia could successfully become a

00:17:30

suddenly reformed country there,

00:17:33

it is impossible, and I am very sad that

00:17:35

analysts who are trying to

00:17:38

study that period completely

00:17:40

forget about this little one in quotes is

00:17:43

actually an absolutely decisive problem

00:17:46

that remains. Unfortunately, today

00:17:48

as we see society, in principle, is

00:17:50

still united around the

00:17:51

revanchist agenda, which is also

00:17:53

evidenced by the war in Ukraine.

00:17:55

Because this is a war for revenge of Russia for the general

00:17:59

restoration of the Russian empires in

00:18:00

many ways Correctly, I understand from your

00:18:03

answer that it doesn’t matter who was at the

00:18:05

helm of Putin then or could it be someone

00:18:07

else And who will be at the helm of Russia

00:18:11

Reshev’s sentiments will not disappear anywhere

00:18:14

That is, it was inevitable then and

00:18:16

now it remains, let’s say, the main thing the

00:18:19

force behind which Russian

00:18:21

society is moving, this will remain a very significant

00:18:24

factor, especially if you consider that over the

00:18:26

past 25 years, the

00:18:29

Kremlin Propaganda has been almost very actively

00:18:31

focused on these

00:18:33

groups and very actively, as it were, further

00:18:36

Well, you can say corrupted if you

00:18:38

look at the nineties there Yes there is an

00:18:41

absolute consensus that

00:18:42

reforms need to be rolled out. And in general, as if

00:18:45

under Soviet nostalgia, it reaches its Peak,

00:18:47

by the way, not under Putin, but precisely after the

00:18:49

ninety-eighth year after the crisis, that

00:18:50

is, people said that we don’t

00:18:52

want anything anymore. Let’s go back guys and in response to

00:18:54

this it’s the family and gave them this Putin

00:18:56

in fact. They were looking for someone

00:18:59

who would return such order to the

00:19:01

country and remove the damned chaotic liberals,

00:19:05

but it is clear that there was still a

00:19:08

group of formalities there. For which we

00:19:12

see, unfortunately, and it was quite

00:19:14

significant what we see in recent years For

00:19:16

more than 20 years, this is that the Kremlin

00:19:18

Propaganda has been consistently, in general,

00:19:19

appealing for

00:19:28

years trying to remove this

00:19:31

liberal segment, but after the twenty-

00:19:33

second year, this reversal has become. It

00:19:35

seems to me that it is already completely obvious, and Maria

00:19:38

Pevcha, Unfortunately, without realizing it,

00:19:40

perhaps it is a product of that itself,

00:19:42

but this propaganda,

00:19:45

this atmosphere, which was largely

00:19:48

created by Putin during these years because

00:19:51

her series definitely seems to

00:19:53

follow the same narrative

00:19:55

that everything was stolen from you. Damn

00:19:58

liberals. Unfortunately, in many ways this was

00:20:00

simply created created here. this atmosphere in

00:20:03

society is the attitude towards that period and So far,

00:20:06

indeed, any attempts

00:20:08

at reforms look only like an unambiguous

00:20:12

evil that we had everything, it means there with us

00:20:14

at Kral, and not that for example, we

00:20:16

had the opportunity And we ourselves We,

00:20:19

for example, the Russians did not support or

00:20:21

many of us didn’t support Why didn’t we

00:20:24

support let’s consider Who was in favor

00:20:26

How how to stimulate those People but it’s

00:20:29

not so absolutely There will be a question there

00:20:31

is no nuance, it’s just all Black For

00:20:33

now we interpret

00:20:36

our history in this way Unfortunately, there is a big chance

00:20:37

that we will remain this way in our

00:20:40

own development trap because

00:20:41

we absolutely do not want to understand why

00:20:44

the reforms turned out to be unsuccessful in reality

00:20:46

and what are the social

00:20:48

prerequisites for the failure of Russian transit. Let me

00:20:51

remind you that we have on air the 2024 program, the

00:20:54

main topics of the past week and our guest is

00:20:56

Maria Snegovaya, your subscription is the

00:20:59

main fuel of the air and don’t forget that

00:21:02

you can support the Living Nail or

00:21:04

Amateur project by visiting our store

00:21:24

[music] I

00:21:28

would like to recommend I think Maria you

00:21:30

will support me here as a student of Evgeniy

00:21:33

Grigorievich Yasin recommend his

00:21:34

book will democracy take root in Russia

00:21:37

because it will give answers It seems to me

00:21:38

to many questions that including the

00:21:40

traitors of Maria the singers who arose after the film.

00:21:43

And by the way, I’ll emphasize that

00:21:46

Evgeni Grigorovich is by no means a criminal code of conduct. He

00:21:49

really was an

00:21:50

exceptionally clean,

00:21:52

unmercenary person and certainly very much

00:21:58

into Russia, and in many ways, he

00:22:00

laid down his life to somehow

00:22:02

change it lead to some kind of better

00:22:05

future, unfortunately, it didn’t

00:22:07

work out very well, and now let’s move on to other

00:22:09

topics and Yes, some time has already passed

00:22:12

since Congress adopted an

00:22:14

aid package, including for Ukraine, I’ll

00:22:16

remind you that Israel was also present among the countries

00:22:18

and Taiwan and

00:22:20

President Biden

00:22:22

signed this document and here the question, let's

00:22:25

start from afar. It still

00:22:28

has more of a political effect than

00:22:30

real military assistance or Or am I

00:22:32

wrong Oh no, of course this is

00:22:34

really real military assistance in

00:22:36

principle today If we talk about the

00:22:39

Western coalition about the Ukrainian

00:22:40

coalition it is the United States that seems to be the

00:22:43

main supplier of military assistance,

00:22:45

simply because Europe, unfortunately,

00:22:46

as we found out, is simply not trying very hard,

00:22:49

right now they are actively

00:22:51

doing something, maybe they are not powerful enough

00:22:53

while they are increasing their production, their

00:22:55

own military-industrial complex, but America,

00:22:58

unlike Europe really has these

00:23:01

aid objects, like weapons, in large

00:23:04

quantities. And that is why the key

00:23:06

question all these 8 months while Congress

00:23:09

was trying to pass this package was precisely

00:23:12

what if the United States had not carried out

00:23:16

this package. As a result, such a reality,

00:23:17

the possibility actually existed.

00:23:19

Unfortunately, but Europe simply did not have

00:23:21

a plan b unfortunately and there was simply a very

00:23:25

difficult

00:23:26

situation in c now in Ukraine would have been

00:23:31

and for the crisis of European European

00:23:34

security would have increased greatly we

00:23:36

still see by the way that Europe

00:23:38

Unfortunately is not

00:23:40

investing its military-industrial complex quickly enough Although changes

00:23:42

are happening And today A As a result of

00:23:45

this eight-month delay, but

00:23:48

really Unfortunately, Ukraine

00:23:51

really has problems at the front

00:23:54

Russia

00:23:56

was strengthened by the moment, that is, that is,

00:23:58

with regard to shells, such statistics are

00:24:00

quite frightening to understand that in

00:24:02

general, for every one shell fired by the Ukrainian

00:24:04

side, Russia fires five

00:24:08

and at certain moments of

00:24:10

the crisis in recent months, the situation

00:24:12

developed that for one shell Ukraine

00:24:15

Russia fired 10-12 on some

00:24:17

front lines just to understand

00:24:19

how difficult the situation is, how with such a

00:24:21

ratio, for example,

00:24:24

Russia managed to defend itself, especially in the Donetsk

00:24:26

region in some areas in some

00:24:28

parts of the region to achieve some

00:24:31

breakthroughs are still tactical, but they

00:24:33

can theoretically convert into A and

00:24:36

B some changes in

00:24:38

the situation more radically towards

00:24:40

Russia in the coming month Therefore, although

00:24:43

the package has been carried out and Ukraine is already receiving

00:24:47

some certainly types of weapons and

00:24:50

as we understand how we now we know even

00:24:51

before the packages were provided to the attacks,

00:24:53

today there are clearly in this regard, too,

00:24:57

Ukraine is beginning to

00:24:59

increase the intensity of the attack. But

00:25:01

nevertheless,

00:25:03

the situation at the front still remains, very difficult for

00:25:05

Ukraine, speeches including about mobilization,

00:25:08

since Russia simply

00:25:10

managed to to mobilize many more

00:25:12

people But in Ukraine there are still difficulties with this

00:25:14

so the situation

00:25:17

will most likely remain quite

00:25:18

difficult Despite the fact that this package

00:25:19

was absolutely necessary at least to

00:25:21

maintain the status quo of maintaining Ukraine’s

00:25:25

current lines at the front so

00:25:28

many expect to see a strong

00:25:31

aggravation of the situation in the summer When Russia

00:25:33

launches a more active offensive and

00:25:35

will especially say this ironically

00:25:39

if Russia manages to get some breakthroughs

00:25:42

at the very moment when the

00:25:46

NATO summit is taking place in DC in Washington, it

00:25:48

will take place in the summer for sure

00:25:50

the Kremlin knows about this and plans

00:25:53

accordingly Therefore, there is

00:25:55

no need to relax, despite the fact

00:25:57

that the package itself was passed. This is

00:25:59

good news and another good

00:26:02

news is that a lot of people say that in the United States there

00:26:05

really is a kind of disagreement on the

00:26:07

issue of Ukraine among the two parties. However,

00:26:10

if you look at the vote in

00:26:11

Congress on assistance from Ukraine, there

00:26:14

really are more Democrats than

00:26:16

Republicans. However, among

00:26:17

the Republicans in general, we do not see a

00:26:19

sharp change in votes, that is, there is no

00:26:22

sharp decrease in votes, that is, there are

00:26:23

more or less fewer of them. But nevertheless, they are

00:26:27

there, the core of the republic, it still

00:26:28

continues to support Ukraine. it is

00:26:31

also important and important that at least

00:26:33

Trump, who still has a

00:26:36

chance of Victory in November, he apparently at

00:26:39

least kept silent Yes, he did

00:26:41

not block these supplies. This is still

00:26:43

good news for Ukraine, which means that

00:26:45

perhaps support will continue after

00:26:48

the elections, many Today analysts are saying

00:26:50

that, well, that’s all, it was carried out,

00:26:52

of course, it was the last aid package for

00:26:54

Ukraine. It’s probably the last one until November,

00:26:57

the trial, see the political situation in the United States

00:27:00

today, but of course it’s unlikely to be the last

00:27:02

because I’ll emphasize once again, we see from the

00:27:04

current balance of power that everything- Still,

00:27:06

more or less bipartisan support for

00:27:08

Ukraine remains just a

00:27:11

pre-election year, so it seems to fade

00:27:13

into the background with regard to issues of

00:27:15

political competition, but let’s

00:27:18

hope that it will remain in the

00:27:20

future because, fortunately, there is

00:27:25

Novo Yam, which is what

00:27:28

you said that Europe does not have there was a plan

00:27:31

B and in connection with this I remembered the following

00:27:34

statement that if this

00:27:36

package had not been approved, then Europe would have begun to

00:27:39

curtail its support for Ukraine and

00:27:41

push Ukraine into negotiations

00:27:43

to what extent this corresponds to

00:27:46

reality. Well, we don’t know

00:27:49

because this is kind of

00:27:51

hypothetical. I’ll say this from my

00:27:53

communication with polymers and

00:27:56

colleagues from Raleigh. Yes, I still

00:28:00

have the feeling that the West

00:28:02

understands the need to support Ukraine.

00:28:06

Because if peace negotiations are held now,

00:28:08

then Putin will receive 20% of the

00:28:11

Ukrainian territory, in fact, from

00:28:14

Putin’s point of view, Victory Although

00:28:16

maybe this is not a victory, this is not the maximum plan, the

00:28:18

maximum was to occupy Kiev Yes, but this is the

00:28:21

minimum plan there, but it was still

00:28:22

achieved. What does this mean next if

00:28:25

you look at Putin’s rhetoric who is

00:28:27

with Yes, here we are literally colleague Makich

00:28:32

recently published a book called col he

00:28:35

in it he explores a professor at an

00:28:38

American university in

00:28:39

DC who also closely communicates with policy

00:28:42

makers, and he explores how

00:28:45

the idea of Russia and its

00:28:47

aggressiveness of Putin’s Russia on the

00:28:49

International stage has changed over the

00:28:51

last How many 10 years, from what year to

00:28:54

this year, and it

00:28:58

can be seen very clearly there this tendency of Putin

00:29:01

to escalate every time, yes, starting in

00:29:05

2008, Georgia, then the fourteenth year,

00:29:09

Ukraine Yes, four-fifth, every time Putin

00:29:12

reaches the same goal, he doesn’t seem to

00:29:14

give up Yes, but at a

00:29:16

higher level of escalation, and Putin is

00:29:20

also clear from his rhetoric

00:29:22

repeatedly Yes, he emphasized that, in

00:29:25

general, he is not at war with Ukraine at all.

00:29:27

For him, Ukraine, in principle, is not a subject of

00:29:28

international politics, it is not a country. Yes,

00:29:30

this is some kind of artificial formation, and

00:29:32

he is at war with the West. And it is clear that if

00:29:37

Putin is allowed to feel today that he

00:29:40

has won including through this

00:29:42

peace negotiation, to make concessions to him,

00:29:44

especially to the situation that is bad for Ukraine

00:29:46

at the front, that is, Putin Clearly

00:29:48

has a certain advantage in the negotiating

00:29:52

position, if we start peace

00:29:54

negotiations now, this means actually

00:29:56

opening the door for him to attempts to

00:30:00

further destabilize the West with

00:30:03

We already see the prospect of further escalation,

00:30:06

and today we recently

00:30:08

released a report with colleagues in C, where we

00:30:11

show that the Kremlin is very actively

00:30:13

investing in PCs, that is, it is not going to

00:30:16

completely stop the war, on the contrary, it is

00:30:18

increasing production as much

00:30:20

as possible. In the current

00:30:22

situation, intelligence services, including Estonia and

00:30:28

countries including emphasizing that there is

00:30:31

also a

00:30:34

reorganization of the Russian military districts, obvious from the dynamics of the restructuring of the Swa, it is

00:30:37

also felt that

00:30:39

plans are potentially being developed for a clash with

00:30:42

NATO, this does not mean that they will be

00:30:44

implemented. But this means that at

00:30:46

least such a possibility is

00:30:48

certainly taken into account by the Kremlin. That is, if

00:30:51

today it is demonstrated

00:30:54

to give such weakness to really give in to

00:30:56

give to Putin to win this war in Ukraine,

00:30:59

then unfortunately in the next one it may well

00:31:01

turn out to be some kind of

00:31:03

NATO country because it is very tempting

00:31:06

But at the moment yes When it seems that NATO is

00:31:08

weakened and that no one will come to the defense

00:31:11

that at first it is so will express serious

00:31:13

concern but in reality they wo

00:31:15

n’t help yes Or they will support and then abandon

00:31:18

at this moment of course from the

00:31:20

Kremlin’s point of view this is exclusively and it

00:31:22

looks tempting to try

00:31:24

to escalate some kind of hybrid situation

00:31:25

to create in some kind of conditional Narva yes

00:31:28

Well and further Just to demonstrate

00:31:29

that NATO there, let’s occupy a piece

00:31:31

and demonstrate that NATO will not

00:31:33

stand up for them, therefore it is extremely important

00:31:35

how the West behaves today. Is

00:31:37

it extremely supportive,

00:31:39

does it demonstrate support, does it show

00:31:42

Putin in every way that if something

00:31:44

like this tries to do with a

00:31:47

NATO country, it will be huge. Get

00:31:50

such an answer that it won’t seem like much or,

00:31:53

on the contrary, the signals are that yes

00:31:55

no, well, of course we are concerned, but in general

00:31:57

you just don’t touch us, otherwise in general

00:31:59

Well, what should we do?

00:32:06

Is there a chance to preserve the

00:32:09

current system of international

00:32:11

security or will it be completely

00:32:13

destroyed and the West will, in general,

00:32:15

demonstrate its complete weakness?

00:32:17

Putin will completely win. Therefore, the

00:32:20

totality of these motivations suggests that of

00:32:22

course it seems to me that Europe

00:32:24

would continue to support Ukraine and

00:32:26

even the situation of the

00:32:29

United States. But this was it would be very, very difficult

00:32:31

because the euro’s

00:32:34

own weapons are simply

00:32:36

not enough to

00:32:38

sufficiently

00:32:40

provide this support, so we can

00:32:43

only rejoice that fortunately, for now,

00:32:45

the situation ends

00:32:48

well for Ukraine. While the US support

00:32:50

continues, you mentioned what you did with your

00:32:53

colleagues to the Center for Strategic

00:32:56

International Studies a

00:32:58

report on the adaptation of the Russian military-industrial complex and we will

00:33:02

definitely move on to it. But here

00:33:05

I wanted to compare notes once again. What do

00:33:08

you mean, everything you

00:33:10

told here immediately breaks down about

00:33:14

some resistance from public

00:33:16

opinion that I heard in Europe,

00:33:18

including that Putin has not

00:33:21

yet clearly and clearly identified his military goals, that

00:33:25

is, demilitarization denazification is always present in his

00:33:26

public speeches, but there is

00:33:28

no

00:33:31

specifics because anything can be

00:33:33

adjusted to fit all of this, and for example,

00:33:35

you mentioned the deployment of military

00:33:37

districts, but The average person will immediately notice that

00:33:40

this deployment will be connected with the fact

00:33:42

that the new countries of

00:33:44

Sweden and Finland have joined NATO. Of course, it is necessary to

00:33:46

strengthen the Russian borders and how to

00:33:49

explain to them then, that is, because the

00:33:51

average person is trying to

00:33:53

find an answer with simple arguments that after all, not

00:33:56

everything so clearly and on both

00:33:58

sides there is an escalation so after all how is

00:34:01

this how to decipher this to promote a

00:34:04

simple question Thank you Nikita Yes and

00:34:06

good good appeal very right

00:34:10

pay attention you hit me with my own

00:34:11

argument about the importance of public

00:34:14

opinion I’m a very correct point but

00:34:18

Let’s let's ask the average person to look at

00:34:20

who over the last 20 years there has been pressure in

00:34:25

Europe in the fa constantly as an aggressor

00:34:30

and without any particular reason in the case of the

00:34:32

last one there in the year 2020 Well,

00:34:34

simply Absolutely without any

00:34:37

agenda it started an escalation Russia

00:34:40

that is means Fool me since this is my

00:34:43

problem This is yours sorry Yes, this is your

00:34:46

problem Moni me twice This is my

00:34:48

problem, that is, the West has already been

00:34:50

taught by the bitter experience of attempts at constant

00:34:52

reboots there, attempts to de-escalate

00:34:56

attempts to meet Putin halfway, so

00:34:59

Well, Putin Just constantly started over the

00:35:02

last years of the war with a certain

00:35:04

lag throughout for a significant

00:35:08

share in this part of this

00:35:10

border zone with the European Union, so it

00:35:12

seems to me very difficult to blame

00:35:15

Europe for this today. By the way,

00:35:20

Kimovich also emphasizes in this book

00:35:21

that I quoted that this is how the

00:35:23

current war differs from the

00:35:25

Cold War period wars that Well, then the Soviet

00:35:28

Union seemed to be solving problems within itself and within the

00:35:31

communist bloc, that is,

00:35:32

it was clear it was sixty-eight and

00:35:33

fifty-six, but in general in Europe,

00:35:36

clashes between the West and the Soviet

00:35:39

Union, so to speak, took place outside the

00:35:41

European conflict Yes, because at

00:35:43

that time there was Czechoslovakia and Hungary,

00:35:46

they were still considered part of the

00:35:47

communist bloc. And this is, as it were, an

00:35:50

internal problem. There were conflicts

00:35:52

that arose there, I don’t know, conditionally,

00:35:54

Afghanistan there, Vietnam. Korea, these

00:35:58

were all conflicts, as it were, outside the borders of

00:36:01

Europe; this is what is special about Putin and

00:36:04

his rule in recent years 24 years and

00:36:07

this new Cold War, if you can call it that way,

00:36:09

I generally believe that this is the

00:36:10

same Cold War for the reason that the

00:36:12

same people actually remained at the

00:36:14

helm of the country, also the nomenklatura with the

00:36:17

same attitudes, also considering the West

00:36:19

their mortal enemy But this no matter what

00:36:21

you call it. This new

00:36:23

confrontation between Russia and the West is

00:36:25

happening today on the borders of Europe and

00:36:28

this, unfortunately, is very, very

00:36:30

dangerous precisely for the reason that Europe

00:36:31

can no longer pretend that

00:36:33

this does not concern it, it is forced

00:36:36

to somehow defend themselves, and

00:36:38

moreover, we are only talking about

00:36:40

kinetic and about the Military active

00:36:42

military component. But there are a

00:36:44

huge number of hybrid attacks

00:36:46

that Putin is carrying out today. The

00:36:49

latest news is that they are blocking

00:36:51

GPS

00:36:52

signals there, for example, in the Baltic Sea.

00:36:55

Which is also already a problem for

00:36:57

Europe, not counting the huge number of

00:37:00

information companies there. Terrorist murder attacks. Attacks from the

00:37:03

very beginning.

00:37:05

Yes, murders on European territory,

00:37:08

which by the way continue and are even

00:37:09

intensifying at the moment. And so on and so on

00:37:12

and so on. All

00:37:14

this is a variant of a very aggressive

00:37:16

policy The Kremlin regarding Europe and

00:37:19

it didn’t start yesterday or even February

00:37:21

2020, it’s already been going on.

00:37:23

Well, at least since 2008, if you don’t

00:37:26

count at all, you can even before 2006,

00:37:29

Estonia is a bronze soldier there. Yes, but

00:37:31

actually with the arrival of Putin. This all

00:37:34

started very aggressively It would seem yes.

00:37:36

Well, it seems to me that it’s very difficult

00:37:38

to say that it’s very difficult to say that Russia is somehow a

00:37:40

victim. Russia has been constantly

00:37:42

looking for a quarter of a century,

00:37:45

that is, we, in general, have already learned from the

00:37:48

Gorky experience. Yes, that Russia, unfortunately,

00:37:50

cannot be trusted in the current regime, Putin does not

00:37:52

keep his obligations of the Minsk

00:37:54

agreements that existed in the 14th PM

00:37:56

year, Putin was exceptionally rude,

00:37:59

just completely violated and will throw out Tai

00:38:02

in February of the twenty-second year. Well,

00:38:04

after all, we seemed to consider the signal for a

00:38:06

long, long time trying to reboot for

00:38:08

a long time trying to lend a helping hand

00:38:10

Friendship but unfortunately every time Putin

00:38:14

throw it back and continued to escalate, and

00:38:16

therefore it’s impossible to say that

00:38:18

Europe today somehow, but the

00:38:20

first one is starting, Europe is simply defending itself

00:38:23

and is still holding this

00:38:25

position of defense, they are very afraid that

00:38:28

any of their actions will be

00:38:30

perceived as some kind of no less,

00:38:32

macron no longer denies that some

00:38:35

contingent, not even military advisers, but a

00:38:37

contingent may be present

00:38:38

on the territory of

00:38:40

Ukraine. Well, I think that and I’ll also explain

00:38:44

how I see it today, especially at

00:38:47

a time when the United States had a replacement with

00:38:49

this aid package like There would be a vacuum in Europe

00:38:52

as if there was a leader who

00:38:55

would lead, it is obvious that Russia today is

00:38:57

aggressive even for France, which is

00:38:59

traditionally a kind of

00:39:03

Rusalian alliance with Russian culture,

00:39:06

they are always very friendly to the Russians. And even there it

00:39:09

has become obvious that Russia today

00:39:11

poses a huge threat, it is a very

00:39:12

aggressive, revenge-

00:39:14

oriented country trying

00:39:16

to rewrite the World system of

00:39:20

international relations, as it were, and at the moment

00:39:23

when in the United States these party

00:39:25

Discords led to the faltering of the

00:39:28

Ukrainian aid package in Europe, a

00:39:32

vacuum was formed because Germany,

00:39:34

in principle, was

00:39:37

disarming production, but Germany was

00:39:39

initially pacifist-oriented.

00:39:42

if only this is the Legacy of the Second World

00:39:44

War As colleagues joke that the

00:39:47

demilitarization of Germany was even

00:39:49

too successful because Germany is

00:39:52

very afraid to take some kind of

00:39:54

minimally aggressive position there so that they don’t

00:39:56

think that it is a little aggressive, that is, it is

00:39:58

quite evident that it is

00:40:00

trying very hard to behave there is maximum

00:40:02

confidence there even in the current situation Although

00:40:04

little by little there is a

00:40:06

reversal there the second candidate is

00:40:09

Great Britain but they left the Union

00:40:12

they have their own history they help but

00:40:15

they cannot be considered the leader of

00:40:16

Europe today they seem to be outside the European Union

00:40:20

France and France always remain I wanted

00:40:23

to take a slightly more

00:40:24

active position of France, the unresolved

00:40:27

problems of such a complex of its relations

00:40:30

with the European Union. That is, it is, as it were, part of

00:40:32

the European Union. But it turns out that you need to

00:40:34

obey Germany. And I would like them

00:40:36

to play a key role there and there is always a

00:40:38

constant struggle for some

00:40:40

more active position and it is clear that

00:40:42

Macron’s statements lately are

00:40:45

certainly intended to fill

00:40:47

the very vacuum that has formed in Europe, while

00:40:49

behaving more actively, but

00:40:52

I think that there is no talk about the actual

00:40:55

boots of soldiers there

00:40:58

today, as if the deployment of

00:41:01

these contingents is an excessive

00:41:03

escalation from the point of view of NATO who

00:41:05

should take an exclusively

00:41:07

defensive position, they are hardly ready for this,

00:41:09

but in reality, of course, there are

00:41:11

some kind of volunteer activists who are

00:41:13

present in Ukraine, plus there is

00:41:16

training there, training of Ukrainian

00:41:19

soldiers, it also happens, that is,

00:41:20

interaction is ongoing, but NATO is

00:41:22

still very actively emphasizing

00:41:24

that it as if separately it does not have

00:41:27

any direct participation in any

00:41:33

actions related to this war and that is why I emphasize Yes,

00:41:36

we will note that assistance to Ukraine

00:41:38

is provided by individual countries of the

00:41:40

European Union Yes, this is emphasized, it is not

00:41:42

NATO that is helping Ukraine, individual countries

00:41:45

of the European Union are trying to Help they need to make

00:41:47

some statements, but in fact it seems to be

00:41:49

distancing itself somewhat,

00:41:52

including because they are very afraid of any

00:41:54

possible escalation so that this conflict does

00:41:56

not become a conflict between Russia and NATO, which

00:41:58

in fact from the point of view of the West

00:42:00

is the third world war. I would

00:42:02

also emphasize that we today

00:42:04

we really found ourselves in some kind of trap

00:42:07

22, that is, it is impossible to give this, I will emphasize from the

00:42:11

point of view of the West, it is impossible to give Putin a victory in

00:42:13

this war, I have already explained

00:42:15

why, but Putin is also not going to

00:42:18

give up Yes, we see, I will emphasize once again

00:42:20

that the active increase in

00:42:23

production bypassing sanctions, modernization of

00:42:27

old systems And you can read in our

00:42:31

report, we describe this in detail and Although

00:42:33

in the long term, sanctions

00:42:35

still have an impact and Russia still seems to be

00:42:40

degrading its Defense system. We also show that the

00:42:42

quality is greatly reduced. Russia

00:42:43

hopes to take quantity, it just

00:42:45

hopes that it produces that much.

00:42:47

these modernized tanks from the

00:42:49

sixtieth year of production that

00:42:51

10 super cool German

00:42:53

adms cannot cope with it and this logic of escalation

00:42:56

Unfortunately, it leads us quite well into a

00:42:59

difficult situation because at the

00:43:02

moment it is difficult to imagine

00:43:05

how this could all end,

00:43:06

theoretically there could be and quite

00:43:09

negative scenarios, researcher at the

00:43:12

Center for Strategic Studies of

00:43:13

International Politics Maria Snegovaya is

00:43:15

visiting us and indeed today you refer a lot

00:43:17

to the report that you

00:43:20

prepared together with colleagues at the center

00:43:22

and looking ahead I will say yes, the main

00:43:26

idea from this report is one of the main things

00:43:28

that Russia has succeeded in

00:43:30

adapt to the sanctions that

00:43:33

were imposed on the country and, in fact,

00:43:36

this main question arises: how did

00:43:37

Russia manage to bypass the sanctions policy in the military-industrial complex?

00:43:44

Yes, well, probably our

00:43:47

compatriots will be pleased to receive

00:43:49

a compliment. But is there at least something good in Russia?

00:43:52

there is also this: And how

00:43:55

good it can become is subjective, but

00:43:57

certainly many military analysts are

00:44:01

amazed, impressed, so to speak, by the speed of

00:44:03

Russia’s adaptation to sanctions over the last 2 years,

00:44:05

of course, the

00:44:08

market economy and the experience gained in the

00:44:10

nineties in bypassing all the

00:44:13

various obstacles and the role of medium and

00:44:17

small Russian businesses, which are very

00:44:18

actively involved in schemes to circumvent

00:44:22

sanctions, this has led to the fact that Russia is

00:44:25

quite successfully pushing for sanctions.

00:44:28

Despite the fact that sanctions influence and

00:44:29

certainly lead to long-term

00:44:32

degradation of the Russian

00:44:33

military-industrial complex, Russia does not conventionally pose a threat to

00:44:36

NATO in the sense that

00:44:39

all the various NATO weapons systems there are

00:44:41

much more modernized And they are

00:44:43

at least a generation ahead, if not more, of the

00:44:45

Russian military-industrial complex But from

00:44:49

what Russia had Yes, there were many hundred

00:44:52

old Soviet reserves there, a huge number of them

00:44:54

Although they are used

00:44:56

quite actively, today there was a

00:44:59

scheme circumvention of sanctions through third countries,

00:45:02

although it is significantly

00:45:03

more expensive, a scheme for replacing some sanctioned

00:45:07

goods using, for example, Chinese

00:45:09

analogues and And

00:45:13

here are also unauthorized goods of a

00:45:16

second, sort of dual purpose,

00:45:19

for example chips Yes, which can be used there for

00:45:22

laptops of some industrial

00:45:24

computers and also possible in a tank

00:45:25

to put guidance on, yes Or drones,

00:45:29

for example, which commercial drones are

00:45:30

also very actively used today

00:45:32

on the battlefield for certain functions,

00:45:35

from all this Russia seems to be

00:45:38

making a good game based on

00:45:41

initially bad starting

00:45:44

conditions, while the Kremlin

00:45:46

is demonstrating with its forces how if only

00:45:48

readiness for a long-term war is what

00:45:51

he considers where, as if Putin

00:45:53

initially, all these years, Yes, he often

00:45:55

beats the West of the totality of

00:45:57

structural objective characteristics

00:45:59

Russia initially seemed to have a very

00:46:01

small share of the world Yes, in the world it is

00:46:03

not very high from the point of

00:46:05

view there is, for example, total GDP, but

00:46:09

Putin has it and he believes that in this he

00:46:11

bypasses the West, he has the willingness

00:46:13

to play the long game and the readiness of all resources

00:46:16

for this purpose stubbornly, that is, a war of

00:46:18

attrition Yes, it becomes a war of

00:46:21

attrition where Russia

00:46:22

is demonstrating with all its might its readiness play for a

00:46:24

very long time, and the West, here it is, just as we

00:46:27

discussed there are problems, a bunch of different

00:46:29

political considerations in general,

00:46:30

democracy is always guided by a

00:46:32

huge set of considerations, the task is

00:46:35

to follow the wishes of the voter,

00:46:36

voters of different coalition interests have

00:46:39

different views. So we show

00:46:42

that, taking into account these characteristics,

00:46:45

Russia really successfully

00:46:46

adapt and this must be understood

00:46:49

because I will repeat it again

00:46:52

today, the main challenge to the

00:46:55

European security system is ahead of schedule

00:46:58

due to the fact that Russia does not have access to

00:47:01

high-quality, high-quality Western

00:47:03

technologies, they use instead

00:47:06

substitutes for what we talked about, they are worse

00:47:09

there from the Chinese, let’s say from There

00:47:11

may be only 70% of the batches of Chinese chips there,

00:47:12

more or less They work, but nevertheless, there are

00:47:15

a lot of them and also a

00:47:17

lot of reserves from the Soviet period and

00:47:20

Russia is very actively spending these reserves,

00:47:22

for example, tanks very actively use the

00:47:25

old ones, we are modernizing them a little,

00:47:28

supplementing them with some with more modern

00:47:30

means and in this regard it achieves

00:47:33

certain successes, although we also see

00:47:36

that it is not from open sources

00:47:38

because you can track, for example,

00:47:40

tank reserves from what

00:47:42

satellites track. Well, they are decreasing quite sharply

00:47:44

there by 25-40 about and it is clear that

00:47:47

Russia is the best from this takes away therefore it has

00:47:50

limits Yes, such a strategy nevertheless

00:47:52

It is today, however, they

00:47:54

have adapted to the current situation

00:47:56

quite poorly and as for Drones,

00:47:58

for example, here Russia simply

00:48:01

created this entire industry from scratch, borrowed

00:48:05

Iranian technologies, first of all,

00:48:07

complementing active By the way, volunteer

00:48:09

efforts here The most volunteer

00:48:12

civil society plays a role, of course,

00:48:14

that is, it is present in a sense,

00:48:15

but unfortunately it works

00:48:17

in this regard for evil, that is, they

00:48:20

very actively use volunteer

00:48:22

efforts and a particularly new topic that

00:48:25

appeared in the last,

00:48:28

second year of the war these are the so-called

00:48:30

lines of destruction of Russian

00:48:31

loitering ammunition, these are conditionally

00:48:34

chains of Drones that have different

00:48:37

treasuries, the task of one there is something that reveals the

00:48:39

target of another,

00:48:43

they combine, that is,

00:48:46

the tactics of combat operations have also been adapted, the

00:48:47

tactics have also been adapted, and in this

00:48:51

regard, it is necessary to understand this, that is

00:48:54

How can it really be said that

00:48:57

everything seems to be bad Unfortunately, although

00:48:59

there are certainly problems and sanctions are working

00:49:01

because all these systems seem to be

00:49:03

made out of sticks Yes, from

00:49:06

quite primitive and low

00:49:08

quality not very Not very Not very

00:49:13

high quality high-

00:49:15

tech instruments but

00:49:17

nevertheless, it works in this regard too. That is why

00:49:18

we emphasize that

00:49:20

Europe must and the West, in principle, must

00:49:22

keep this in mind And

00:49:25

adapt to this problem in the same way

00:49:27

and you mentioned the role of allies, I don’t know,

00:49:30

I’ll put in quotes probably the allies of

00:49:31

Russia Iran China and North Korea and once

00:49:34

again I correctly understand for the

00:49:36

audience that Iran and China are,

00:49:39

first of all, pro-technologies and the

00:49:41

DPRK are precisely shells and something

00:49:45

from Soviet reserves because the DPRK at

00:49:46

one time also received a lot yes

00:49:49

Of course this is exactly how Iran In addition

00:49:51

this is technology, this is also missiles North

00:49:53

Korea - these are, first of all, IRO shells,

00:49:56

we also actively see this in all

00:49:59

countries where it previously supplied

00:50:01

weapons, now it goes there and tries to

00:50:03

buy back its own weapons

00:50:04

in order to properly use them on the

00:50:06

battlefield in Ukraine, but the Key problem is

00:50:10

- This is, of course, China because China

00:50:12

plays a huge role. Despite the fact that

00:50:14

formally China is trying carefully

00:50:16

not to violate these sanctions and they do not supply,

00:50:18

for the most part, those goods that are

00:50:20

directly sanctioned, but they

00:50:22

supply a huge amount of goods and

00:50:24

dual-use components, which is what we’re talking about

00:50:26

Nikita and I talked to you, they

00:50:28

play a big role today in

00:50:30

Russia, and they support where they can, for

00:50:33

example, the automobile industry

00:50:35

was built from scratch, and Russia also understands

00:50:38

that even if today it receives

00:50:41

some Western components through third countries,

00:50:42

this channel may soon be

00:50:45

Russia is closed, we also see a

00:50:47

reorientation in these

00:50:49

procurement chains towards goods made in

00:50:52

China, for example, machine tools, machines

00:50:54

used to be mostly Western-

00:50:56

made,

00:50:57

today this is often a very significant

00:51:00

degree of Chinese purchases, and we also

00:51:03

found an interesting story that there is often a

00:51:06

sharp increase in supplies from China,

00:51:09

which are

00:51:26

less correlated with the West. It is still possible, in

00:51:28

any case, to exert influence on China.

00:51:31

For example, in recent months, the

00:51:32

Biden administration has become more active in

00:51:34

putting pressure on Chinese banks that

00:51:36

finance these Russian

00:51:38

procurement transactions, and some banks are already

00:51:42

quite carefully covering up these

00:51:44

transactions of theirs and are distancing themselves from

00:51:48

transactions with Russia, after all, China. there, the

00:51:50

pillbox of the Chinese EaP is a consequence of

00:51:53

trade with the West, and it is even

00:51:56

possible that the United States plays a role here as much as

00:51:58

Europe, which is why today the

00:52:00

trips of European leaders to China have become more frequent;

00:52:02

they are trying to come to an agreement with. Therefore, in

00:52:05

this regard, we believe that the West has,

00:52:08

while growling pressure on China, just a not

00:52:10

on Russia and it is necessary to use it if possible

00:52:12

because China over the

00:52:13

past year has become the most powerful factor in the

00:52:17

success of the Kremlin’s war in

00:52:20

Ukraine, I understand that Russia is facing an

00:52:23

internal problem. That there is a lack of

00:52:24

banal labor force, maybe more, but there is

00:52:27

no one to put at the machine

00:52:30

because there are still certain men fighting personnel

00:52:33

need to be trained and because of this there is a certain

00:52:35

kind of

00:52:37

crisis. This is a problem, we

00:52:40

also show the depletion of reserve reserves,

00:52:41

the problem of ammunition, Russia is not

00:52:44

able to produce as much as

00:52:45

it spends, for example, shells and which

00:52:48

we talked about, of course, these are all

00:52:50

potential problem points as

00:52:52

regards the workforce Yes firstly, a

00:52:55

huge number of people are fighting, many

00:52:58

have left and and In addition, a huge

00:53:01

number are being taken out of the economy by the

00:53:04

military-industrial complex, there is an interesting story there where in

00:53:07

some cases teenagers are already

00:53:08

hired for production. In some

00:53:10

cases they are releasing convicts,

00:53:12

they are also trying to use them for production

00:53:15

and in addition The Russian military-industrial complex

00:53:17

already works in three shifts. But there are simply

00:53:19

no more hours in the day, that is,

00:53:21

there is certainly some limit to

00:53:22

which they are pushing, which many

00:53:24

economists say, well, that’s all

00:53:27

And the economy is built on the fact that

00:53:30

there is a huge the amount of government

00:53:33

investment and it cannot be in the system,

00:53:37

such a logic, such a system cannot be

00:53:39

long-term because sooner or later

00:53:41

it all turns into inflation, inflation is

00:53:43

already Russian powerful and the economy is

00:53:45

simply limited to its potential, it

00:53:47

cannot develop anymore, there are no

00:53:49

people not an hour of the day, but nothing And in this

00:53:52

regard, probably sooner or later, a threshold will be

00:53:55

reached at which a more powerful

00:53:58

expansion is impossible, but for now Russia is

00:54:02

not there yet, let me remind you that Maria Snegovaya, a research

00:54:05

fellow at the Center for Strategic

00:54:07

Studies and International Policy and

00:54:09

Georgetown University, is our guest,

00:54:11

this is the final program

00:54:13

2024 We are completely running out of time,

00:54:17

literally there is less than a minute left, here in

00:54:19

briefing mode I am with you, of course.

00:54:22

We contacted you in advance about discussing

00:54:24

the topic, but still it would just be interesting to

00:54:26

know whether to follow the reshuffles in the

00:54:28

Russian government or not. Or is this not of

00:54:30

interest to against the backdrop of the fact that

00:54:32

such events are happening now,

00:54:35

it is very interesting, of course, but it is

00:54:37

very difficult to predict here since

00:54:40

I have no inside information, but I can say one thing. What

00:54:44

we see for sure is the arrest of Timur

00:54:46

Ivanov, for example, it seems to me that it is

00:54:48

directly related to our report,

00:54:49

since it is the military-industrial complex Now there’s a huge amount of

00:54:53

money, which is what I was just talking about, and there’s a

00:54:57

huge squabble over the pie, that is, an attempt at

00:55:00

redistribution. Yes, these are a

00:55:02

very, very tasty morsel, which, against the

00:55:04

backdrop of the overall fact that options are being reduced

00:55:07

due to the military-industrial complex. Yes, in the Russian economy it

00:55:09

certainly arouses great interest among

00:55:11

various actors That is, I would connect

00:55:12

these arrests first of all with this situation and

00:55:15

the last thing I will say to Nikita is that this

00:55:17

situation is that the Russian economy

00:55:19

today has become almost the main engine of

00:55:23

these huge resources that the Kremlin is waging

00:55:25

war even

00:55:26

better that the war is essentially being done

00:55:30

for Russia a necessary factor for

00:55:32

existence because any stop to

00:55:34

these investments

00:55:37

will lead to a very hard landing which is

00:55:39

extremely unfavorable for the Kremlin in the internal

00:55:41

political sense, therefore in many ways

00:55:43

the Kremlin has created such a situation when the war

00:55:46

becomes permanent because only

00:55:49

this is the only way to

00:55:53

keep it, as Maria says in these watches

00:55:56

Snegovaya Thank you very much for being

00:55:58

with us today and Thank you to everyone who

00:56:00

watched and listened to this broadcast Nikita

00:56:02

Vasilenko hosted it Until we meet again

00:56:03

Take care of yourself and your loved ones Thank you

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