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Download "The Contradictions of Battery Operated Vehicles | Graham Conway | TEDxSanAntonio"

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00:00:03
climate change is a hoax and the
00:00:08
electric vehicle is an abomination
00:00:13
someone once told me that to capture an
00:00:15
audience's attention you need to offend
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them and what better way to offend
00:00:22
people than to denounce climate change
00:00:25
because if there's one thing the world
00:00:28
may unanimously agree upon is that we
00:00:31
don't like it to be here in the future
00:00:34
so now that I have your attention let me
00:00:36
revisit those opening comments I do
00:00:39
actually believe in climate change but I
00:00:42
do have a problem with the way we define
00:00:45
electric vehicles so this talk will
00:00:48
still offend some people I can almost
00:00:51
see the YouTube comments on this video
00:00:53
now it isn't pretty but this talk is not
00:00:59
about demonizing the electric vehicle
00:01:01
unfairly
00:01:02
I absolutely believe they are the future
00:01:05
of personal transportation they do a
00:01:08
fantastic job at moving pollution our
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identity populated cities they're fun to
00:01:15
drive and you can get free parking too
00:01:17
sometimes and I know this because I
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owned an electric vehicle for three
00:01:22
years and it was a great car they will
00:01:25
absolutely be a place for the electric
00:01:28
vehicle in our future but not today
00:01:32
let me start with a question there are 1
00:01:36
billion passenger cars on the world's
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rows today if I gave you a button which
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would turn them all into electric
00:01:44
vehicles would you push it the problem
00:01:51
of climate change is a global one it is
00:01:53
believed to be caused by increasing co2
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concentrations in our atmosphere if you
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put a box around the earth and measure
00:02:01
the gas is trapped inside that box you
00:02:03
would indeed find co2 and that co2
00:02:05
levels are rising what is causing co2
00:02:08
levels to rise well
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one source is the cars and trucks that
00:02:12
we drive
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emit co2 from the tailpipe and the way
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the industry currently measures this co2
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is like putting a special box around the
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vehicle and measuring what's inside the box
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society's solution to the problem is the
00:02:27
electric vehicle because if you put a
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box around the electric vehicle and try
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and measure co2 you won't find any so
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based on this way of measuring co2 we've
00:02:39
decided to call these zero emissions or
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we call these dirty but let me show you
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why this is wrong
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consider that instead of changing all
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vehicles into electric vehicles we
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instead change them into horses now a
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horse breathes it in air and it breathes
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out co2 so if you put a box around the
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horse you would measure co2 if you rode
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that horse the same distance as you
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drove the car you would find something
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quite shocking the horse emits as much
00:03:25
co2 as a Corvette so you can see based
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on this way of measuring co2 our only
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possible conclusion is that if we
00:03:41
changed all cars into horses we will be
00:03:44
emitting as much co2 as 1 billion
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Corvettes and that doesn't sound very
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good for the environment does it but as
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you sit there I'm sure something deep
00:03:56
inside of you is saying that doesn't
00:03:58
sound right
00:03:59
and you'd be correct of course if we
00:04:03
changed all cars into horses our climate
00:04:06
would be better
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and here's why it would be better you
00:04:09
see even though the horse breathes out
00:04:11
co2 into the atmosphere that co2 is then
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absorbed by plants and converted back
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into oxygen which the horse breathes in
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again and so you see the co2 is in a
00:04:21
cycle and because it is in a cycle it
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doesn't increase
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in contrast the car is different because
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with the car we dig all out of the
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ground we burn it and we produce co2 and
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it isn't in a cycle so it is increasing
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so you were right to be skeptical but
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based on how we currently measure co2
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you could not possibly have come to this
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conclusion without doing this type of
00:04:50
analysis let's go back to the electric
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vehicle remember the way we quantify co2
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is to measure it from the tailpipe but
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the electric car doesn't burn fuel but
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it does use electricity so we have to
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look at where that comes from a large
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proportion of our electricity comes from
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coal
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now we dig coal out of the ground in
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large quantities we then burn it in
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power stations which produces co2 you
00:05:23
can see there is no arrow along the top
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of this diagram that co2 is not in a
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cycle and it is increasing but you
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couldn't possibly know this by only
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measuring the vehicle's tailpipe what we
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need to do is expand our imaginary box
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to include everything and coal isn't the
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only way we generate electricity we also
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burn natural gas and we burn oil these
00:05:53
to produce co2 now you might be sitting
00:05:56
there and saying hang on a minute I
00:05:59
charge my electric vehicle from solar
00:06:02
panels on my roof so that's ok right
00:06:05
well for you maybe
00:06:07
and many developed nations are moving
00:06:11
away from coal and natural gas to
00:06:12
renewable energy sources the co2 is a
00:06:17
global problem so let's have a look at
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things on a global scale how much of the
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world's electricity is produced by
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burning fuel which creates co2 it's
00:06:29
about two-thirds so you can see when you
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plug your electric vehicle in you are
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probably producing co2 it just isn't
00:06:37
being measured you see the automotive
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industry
00:06:40
has cleverly found a way to move the
00:06:43
problem not solve the problem but is the
00:06:49
electric vehicle really worse well to
00:06:51
understand if it's worse we need to look
00:06:54
at how much emissions are produced
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during the life of the vehicle the
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average age of a vehicle before it gets
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scrapped is around 180 thousand miles
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you can see the conventional vehicle
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produces about 30 tons of co2 over its
00:07:09
lifetime how is the electric vehicle
00:07:12
look pretty good right because some of
00:07:17
that electricity comes from renewable
00:07:19
sources and because the electric motor
00:07:20
is far more efficient than the internal
00:07:22
combustion engine it produces less co2
00:07:26
but there is a problem with this graph
00:07:29
this graph says that at zero miles zero
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co2 has been produced and you think
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about that for a second it means the two
00:07:40
cars have magically appeared in the
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showroom out of thin air in reality a
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huge amount of co2 is produced just
00:07:51
making a vehicle because you have to dig
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raw materials out of the ground
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transport them to factories where they
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can be formed into car parts before
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finally being assembled into vehicles
00:08:01
each step requires energy and so we
00:08:05
create co2 so you can see the
00:08:07
conventional vehicle comes to the
00:08:08
showroom having generated about six tons
00:08:12
of co2 and now this is the critical part
00:08:17
making a battery isn't easy the
00:08:22
materials required are harder to find
00:08:25
and mating in battery cell requires a
00:08:28
huge amount of energy so the battery
00:08:30
vehicle comes to the showroom having
00:08:32
generated about 12 tons of co2 and you
00:08:38
can see you'd have to drive it around 80
00:08:40
or 90 thousand miles before you offset
00:08:42
that co2 penalty but it is better in the
00:08:46
end so the electric vehicle still looks
00:08:49
good here as well right well this is row
00:08:52
gets interesting
00:08:54
you see the conventional vehicle has a
00:08:56
400 mile range well the electric vehicle
00:08:59
in this example has a 125 mile range now
00:09:04
125 miles might be enough for some of
00:09:07
you but most of us want more we'd like
00:09:10
to be able to drive great distances
00:09:12
across the states or if you're here in
00:09:15
Texas you might just want to get to the
00:09:16
next city so really we need to be
00:09:23
comparing a 400 mile range electric
00:09:26
vehicle and as you may have guessed a
00:09:29
longer range requires a larger battery
00:09:32
which means a larger co2 penalty and now
00:09:37
you start to see the problem over its
00:09:40
expected lifetime it has emitted more
00:09:43
co2 than the conventional vehicle it has
00:09:45
contributed more to climate change in
00:09:47
the conventional vehicle and that is the
00:09:49
crux of the problem it has produced more
00:09:52
co2 but we've measured none and so
00:09:58
society is happy to continue to call
00:09:59
these zero emissions but that is
00:10:03
dangerous and unproductive but there is
00:10:07
something we can do today using
00:10:09
technology we have today which will make
00:10:12
a difference today and that is to look
00:10:16
at hybrids hybrids are far more
00:10:19
efficient than conventional vehicles
00:10:20
because at low speeds where the engine
00:10:23
is inefficient
00:10:24
the electric motor compensates and says
00:10:26
don't worry engine I've got this you
00:10:31
stay turned off until we need you and
00:10:34
critically a hybrid has a small battery
00:10:37
so the initial co2 penalty is similar to
00:10:40
the conventional vehicle while the end
00:10:42
of life emissions are far lower in fact
00:10:47
to offset the co2 from the electric
00:10:49
vehicle you would need to drive it
00:10:51
around 450,000 miles before you offset
00:10:57
that co2 but again I don't want to
00:11:01
demonize the electric vehicle
00:11:04
I just don't think we should adopt them
00:11:05
today based on the way we generate our
00:11:09
electricity in the way we make our
00:11:10
batteries but how can we help the
00:11:13
electric vehicle meet its potential well
00:11:18
we need to invest in making our
00:11:20
electricity generation from renewable
00:11:22
sources around the world so that when we
00:11:25
plug our electric cars in we know there
00:11:27
is no co2 being generated we can do this
00:11:31
by building solar and wind farms if we
00:11:33
did that then you can see the difference
00:11:35
we can make to the emissions created
00:11:37
during the life of the vehicle we can go
00:11:41
further to we can invest in new battery
00:11:44
technologies battery production
00:11:46
techniques to help offset that initial
00:11:49
co2 penalty and you so you can see the
00:11:53
potential of the electric vehicle you
00:11:56
can see what it could look like in the
00:11:59
future it's just as a society we are
00:12:01
trillions of dollars and decades away
00:12:04
from achieving this but we will get
00:12:07
there one day but what we don't want to
00:12:09
do today is mislead people into buying
00:12:11
electric vehicles by falsely calling
00:12:13
them zero emissions what we need to do
00:12:17
instead is because we continue to invest
00:12:19
in the internal combustion engine
00:12:21
it hasn't met its maximum potential yet
00:12:24
and we can look into renewable fuels
00:12:27
this is where we combine water with the
00:12:30
waste co2 to create fuels for our
00:12:33
vehicles now there's a good reason we
00:12:36
don't do this today it requires a huge
00:12:39
amount of energy to do this but if all
00:12:43
that energy comes from renewable sources
00:12:46
then it isn't a problem for the climate
00:12:49
so you see we've created a new co2 cycle
00:12:52
and you can see how fantastic that looks
00:12:57
for the hybrid vehicle over the lifetime
00:12:58
emissions even without renewable fuels
00:13:03
we should still consider buying hybrids
00:13:06
today if we want to impact climate
00:13:09
change now in the future there will be
00:13:14
conventional vehicles hybrid vehicles
00:13:17
and electric vehicles where they make
00:13:19
sense the future is not just electric
00:13:23
the future is eclectic so let me leave
00:13:38
you with this if I gave you that button
00:13:44
based on what you now know would you
00:13:48
push it thank you
00:13:52
[Applause]

Description:

NOTE FROM TED: This talk only reflects the speaker's personal views and interpretation. Several claims in this talk lack scientific support. We've flagged this talk because it falls outside the content guidelines TED gives TEDx organizers. TEDx events are independently organized by volunteers. The guidelines we give TEDx organizers are described in more detail here: http://storage.ted.com/tedx/manuals/tedx_content_guidelines.pdf This talk will challenge the popular perception that Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) are environmentally friendly, and will argue that we are inappropriately rushing the market introduction of these vehicles. BEVs are commonly sold under the guise of being ‘Zero Emissions,’ an assertion that is not true by any definition. Brake pads produce emissions, as do tires and even interiors under sunlight. The electricity that powers BEVs is generated by power plants, 64% of which burn fossil fuels in the U.S.—fossil fuels that contribute to greenhouse gas emissions and global warming. Even more importantly, there are significant CO2 emissions created during the manufacture of the battery pack, meaning that in order to offset the carbon created during the production process, a BEV must drive 40,000 - 100,000 miles before being environmentally comparable to a gasoline-powered vehicle. Hybrid vehicles, on the other hand, which combine much smaller batteries with efficient internal combustion engines, have been shown to be a much better option for lowering global CO2. Unfortunately, they do not receive the same marketable ‘kudos’ or policy backing as full BEVs. We are headed down the wrong path by rolling out BEVs before making the manufacturing and electricity generation CO2 neutral. Dr. Graham Conway is a Principal Engineer in the Automotive Division at Southwest Research Institute. For the last ten years he has been immersed in evaluating automotive technologies and consulting for car companies and suppliers. This gives him unique insights and perspectives on the industry. He is passionate about making vehicles more efficient to ensure the future of the planet and has a message to share about some common misconceptions about electric and non-electric vehicles. This talk was given at a TEDx event using the TED conference format but independently organized by a local community. Learn more at https://www.ted.com/about/programs-initiatives/tedx-program

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