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Russian
00:00:02
very good evening everyone,00:00:04
welcome here once again to our00:00:07
regular situation analysis space.00:00:09
I'm professor André Frota and I'm here00:00:12
with my colleague, my00:00:14
work partner, here on00:00:15
these Mondays, analyzing00:00:19
international culture. is a00:00:20
project that we have been developing for over00:00:22
four years that We often00:00:24
see here in the social media space00:00:26
including both YouTube and Facebook00:00:28
and the network you have watching us00:00:30
to comment and analyze the00:00:33
international consultation establish contact00:00:35
between us who are the00:00:37
international relations courses Political Science00:00:39
political party management the other00:00:42
courses here at the legal school Public management00:00:45
legal politics and security00:00:46
which also includes courses involving00:00:49
public administration security and00:00:52
defense security we have a series00:00:55
of super important courses here at the00:00:56
school what we saw here is to comment on this00:00:58
regular situation, this situation, these00:01:02
facts that are the most important facts00:01:03
here are happening throughout the00:01:06
week, throughout the month, throughout the year,00:01:08
so I'm Professor Frota and we're00:01:11
going to talk a little today, right, Professor00:01:12
Rafael Pons about relations between00:01:15
Brazil and China So this place that gives00:01:17
a good evening Hello, good evening everyone,00:01:21
good once again here, thank you for the00:01:23
invitation, it's always great to talk to00:01:27
you Carlos, students,00:01:29
spectators, lovers, passionate about00:01:32
international relations, and here, right,00:01:35
Share with my friend André Frota00:01:37
long time comrade we are going to00:01:39
discuss some issues that00:01:41
are popping up in the newspaper headlines00:01:43
especially last weekend00:01:46
about the visit of our current00:01:49
president Lula to China and we are going to discuss00:01:51
a slightly more historical way00:01:53
trying to understand a little00:01:55
Brazilian foreign policy and00:01:57
Brazil's relations with China and we will also try00:02:00
to measure and understand a little this00:02:02
great game of chess that the international policy00:02:07
of a new Projection of power that it00:02:10
has been building over the last 2000:02:11
years so thank you Here, once again, the00:02:14
participation of all of you,00:02:17
excellent Professor Rafael, good ones.00:02:19
Thank you very much for your Good evening,00:02:21
also for being here with us on this, on00:02:23
this juncture night,00:02:26
we can basically call it the00:02:27
second of the juncture, right, Professor00:02:29
Afonso, this week we We are looking to00:02:31
share with you, so feel00:02:33
free Guys, those of you who are00:02:35
watching us, Those of you who are already our00:02:36
students, those who are not, are very00:02:38
welcome here in our space, you can00:02:40
comment, you can ask questions, interact00:02:42
with us, This is also an00:02:44
interactive space, it's not just a00:02:46
necessarily00:02:47
expository space So feel free00:02:49
to interact and talk with us00:02:50
about the subjects as we00:02:52
develop our reasoning,00:02:57
first of all I would like to start with00:02:59
Professor Rafael Pons, this conversation of ours00:03:02
is contextualizing a little00:03:04
what brought us This situation, I think00:03:07
you, in a way, brought up this fact00:03:09
that President Lula's visit to00:03:13
China was a visit that, in a certain00:03:14
way, was already scheduled, he had to00:03:16
postpone it, right? For health reasons and00:03:18
then he resumed it and now he has consolidated00:03:20
a series of memorandum agreements, the00:03:22
understandings were more than, if I'm00:03:25
not mistaken, 12 or 13 agreements and00:03:27
Memorandums of Understanding between Brazil00:03:29
and China, which in a certain way00:03:32
also consolidates one of the Steps in these00:03:35
bilateral relations that are understood and00:03:37
were understood for a time as00:03:39
strategic relations I wanted to start00:03:43
this by talking a little about a00:03:46
text that I want to share and00:03:47
put this within the context of00:03:49
foreign policy, foreign policy analysis00:03:51
of topics that involve00:03:52
Brazilian foreign policy00:03:53
from the author whose name is José00:03:56
Augusto Albuquerque, I want00:03:58
to share with you this text, it's00:04:01
there in the link, so if you want to00:04:03
follow along and anyone who is curious to00:04:06
understand it, finally studying this subject.00:04:10
This is a text that I leave as a00:04:13
written source for you and this text00:04:17
was published in 2014, so we00:04:26
already have a period of almost 10 years, Rafael00:04:30
Ponso, of the time in which this article00:04:35
was published and at that time when this00:04:38
author, who is a very important author,00:04:40
within00:04:43
Brazilian foreign policy literature, right? He is a very well-00:04:46
known intellectual. A very well-known professor, he00:04:47
is one of the founders of the00:04:50
Political Science department there, in the00:04:51
international relations centers at USP, so he00:04:53
is a kind of a pioneer and one00:04:58
of those first professors who,00:05:01
in a way,00:05:02
many current generations study the00:05:05
history of foreign policy and also00:05:07
Brazilian foreign policy, so I00:05:09
'm not basing this on this author00:05:12
or this text Especially00:05:14
because it's a text that appears00:05:17
practically at the end of the Lula government, right?00:05:19
so he publishes it in 2014, so it's a00:05:21
text that appears practically at the end00:05:24
of the Lula and Dilma governments and it summarizes00:05:29
a little of what this relationship between00:05:31
Brazil and China has00:05:33
transformed throughout this last00:05:36
administration of this political group that today00:05:39
occupies again is with configuration a00:05:42
little different, but the political core00:05:44
that currently occupies the Brazilian Executive00:05:47
finally as head of the executive and occupies the00:05:50
position in the Brazilian executive00:05:53
and in this text, specifically José00:05:55
Augusto Guilhon, he begins by making a00:05:59
very brief, very quick retrospective00:06:02
in relation to Tamar's governments and00:06:05
government Cardoso and makes a certain00:06:09
retrospective saying that the idea of00:06:11
strategic partnership was an idea that00:06:14
already emerged, it starts in the00:06:18
Tamar government and then00:06:20
continues and remains a term00:06:23
used in the Cardoso government, so the00:06:26
idea of a strategic opinion between00:06:28
Brazil and China it starts to be coined00:06:31
at that moment it also starts to be00:06:33
used in these two governments in the00:06:37
Lula government we are going to have a00:06:40
particularly important moment which is a00:06:42
moment that José Augusto brings in00:06:45
which Lula makes a visit to China and00:06:47
if the visit it happens a year after00:06:49
China became00:06:52
Brazil's first official website partner until00:06:54
2008, in the United States it00:06:56
occupied this position and then we00:06:58
have it in 2009, there is a change in this00:07:01
status of the main commercial partner00:07:03
happening from 2008 to 2009 this00:07:05
happened, also greatly influenced by the00:07:08
subprime crisis that happened in 2008,00:07:10
a systemic crisis00:07:12
but which had an impact on relations00:07:14
between Brazil and China,00:07:16
placing China again and for the first time as00:07:19
its main trading partner and00:07:23
This text by José Augusto Guilhon is00:07:26
a text with the following title00:07:28
called Brazil China United States a00:07:31
partnership or a00:07:33
triangular triangular relationship and I think this title is00:07:37
very pertinent and this is a00:07:41
very satisfactory expression for us00:07:44
to analyze the relationship that not only José00:07:48
Augusto seeks to describe, but00:07:50
also that he seeks at the end of his text,00:07:53
is to establish recommendations, so00:07:57
José Augusto's article itself00:08:00
is not just an article and that he makes a00:08:03
proper analysis of relations00:08:05
between China, but he also creates some00:08:08
recommendations, he gives some suggestions as to00:08:11
which path to follow, which way00:08:14
these relationships should go, and the00:08:17
title of the text, in a way, is a00:08:19
title that already indicates,00:08:21
it presents a potential synthesis of00:08:24
what this reasoning and what the00:08:26
core of José Augusto's argument is to00:08:28
bring out that the idea of a00:08:31
triangular relationship is a relationship that00:08:34
has these three points and with a more or00:08:38
less one table distance between these00:08:40
three points in a given00:08:42
geometric shape and in this text he will00:08:46
look for establish00:08:48
and he Analyzes he creates the nucleus and this and00:08:53
this synthesis he establishes he does00:08:55
using the speeches of00:08:58
President Lula at the time and also of00:09:01
former President Dilma when he00:09:04
Basically analyzes the content of these00:09:07
speeches and the way Lula00:09:10
referred to China at that moment so00:09:13
he will summarize this and we do a lot of00:09:17
discourse analysis of00:09:20
heads of state in the area of00:09:22
international relations in the analysis of00:09:23
foreign policy because they are especially in the field00:09:26
of foreign policy because they are a00:09:29
very important source of understanding the way00:09:32
in which a state and that government00:09:34
specifically will relax with00:09:37
other governments if you want, Professor,00:09:38
I can even make a brief00:09:40
intervention Anyway, an intervention at this00:09:41
point, feel very comfortable, we even00:09:43
agreed here previously that we00:09:45
will do something else, more dialogued00:09:48
I started thinking here, but00:09:50
please don't be interested, the text00:09:54
that Professor Frota gave us is00:09:56
a text, it's an author, right, José Augusto00:09:58
Gnomo, I've been following him for a00:10:01
long time, he has a series of books,00:10:03
a professor professor, right, whoever is there00:10:05
studying international relations and has00:10:08
heard about it for at least two decades, has read00:10:09
something by José Augusto and he brings it00:10:11
in this text and Professor Frota explained00:10:14
to us very well this closeness00:10:17
that Brazil has with China, an00:10:19
attempt to defend its00:10:22
national interests, so by carrying out a complete recovery00:10:25
of foreign policy Let's put it at the00:10:28
end of FHC, especially Lula 1,00:10:30
right where we see the first term of00:10:34
President Lula 2, thus placing the00:10:36
first second term, we realize00:10:37
that China now has an increase in00:10:41
importance as00:10:43
Brazil's main trading partner So China has already been the00:10:47
largest trading partner for at least two00:10:49
decades, this is something very important00:10:51
because it00:10:53
brings with it a discussion about the00:10:57
domestic political arena, about all the00:11:01
different00:11:02
types of actors, that are00:11:05
articulated at the domestic level, especially00:11:07
in the business spheres,00:11:09
public and private companies, in the sense of trying to00:11:12
gain space in Brazilian foreign policy,00:11:15
especially in the commercial sphere,00:11:18
and China has been standing out as the00:11:20
main area of the Brazilian export agenda,00:11:23
especially in the00:11:26
private sector, so only for mention a little00:11:28
to you about the importance that00:11:30
China has been gaining throughout00:11:32
foreign policy by00:11:34
decision makers from the most varied00:11:38
sectors of the Brazilian private sector,00:11:41
our objective here is not to make00:11:45
an analytical reading of whether a00:11:49
given government left or00:11:50
right, but the central point here is to00:11:52
think about it as state policy and00:11:55
perhaps we believe that this is the00:11:57
main point of our analysis,00:11:59
trying to understand the construction of this00:12:02
alliance that is, you know, increasingly00:12:05
deepening and last weekend as a00:12:07
teacher Fleet put it very well,00:12:10
there was an increase in these relationships,00:12:13
this greater commercial economic interdependence00:12:17
and now increasingly entering00:12:20
the productive sphere of investments and00:12:24
infrastructure, so it is something that we00:12:27
should look more closely at the00:12:29
Brazilian foreign trade agenda for a00:12:33
possible relationship some they say00:12:35
Brazil Maybe it is aligning itself with00:12:38
China, we are going to discuss this a little00:12:40
if Brazil is making an00:12:42
automatic alignment with China, we have already00:12:44
told you here that we, right, it is not me, at00:12:47
least in my opinion, there is no00:12:49
Brazilian alignment in relation to00:12:52
China what there is is a very00:12:54
pragmatic, very specific proximity, but just to00:12:56
mention a little, professor, I'm going to00:12:58
give it back to you just to pose the00:13:01
main questions here00:13:02
in order to understand the formation of00:13:06
this alliance between Brazil and China within the00:13:08
perspective that governs the history of00:13:11
Brazilian foreign policy which is00:13:13
guided by this tradition of maintaining00:13:16
commercial relations, right? And whose relations are00:13:19
permeated by00:13:21
pragmatic logic, that is, Brazil uses00:13:24
a lot of pragmatism in the sense that00:13:27
these relations need to bring a00:13:30
certain type of gain to Brazil00:13:32
and here in this case we we are talking about00:13:34
productivity gains,00:13:36
commercial gains And why don't you00:13:38
invest, right, professor Fleet, please00:13:42
imagine, Professor Rafael, thank you for00:13:45
exactly the complement, we're00:13:48
going to have this chat here, right,00:13:49
Professor, throughout this whole Live and the00:13:53
professor landed, he's a super greeting.00:13:54
well, the line of reasoning that I would00:13:58
also try to continue here,00:14:00
taking into account the00:14:03
importance that this partnership has in00:14:05
relations between Brazil and in00:14:07
bilateral relations, so when José Augusto00:14:11
he will try to build and find00:14:14
what was the core of these intentions of the00:14:18
government that was established at the time,00:14:20
we were talking here firstly00:14:22
according to the Lula government and it is also about the00:14:24
Dilma government, we are talking about a00:14:27
strategic core that was thought out and it00:14:30
had according to00:14:33
President Lula's own speeches at the time and also from00:14:34
Dilma more Lula's because he ends up00:14:37
giving more to Lula's speeches00:14:40
despite the fact that in the text he shows that he00:14:43
analyzed all these speeches that00:14:45
involved and made mention of China00:14:48
throughout all these governments. So this00:14:50
was the empirical survey work00:14:52
that he did and I think it is very00:14:53
important for us to be aware of this,00:14:56
the source that this author00:14:58
ends up using to generate00:15:02
his argument, it is possible to summarize00:15:07
this intention by relating to00:15:11
China00:15:12
in three fundamental dimensions and the00:15:15
first dimension He states that it is a00:15:17
dimension that he understands as00:15:19
identity between the two countries, right? And00:15:22
this identity here is not00:15:25
exactly an identity in00:15:27
cultural terms, it is an identity in terms00:15:30
of similarity of00:15:34
cultural characteristics, it is an identity basically00:15:37
marked by what he calls attention because it is00:15:41
a position00:15:43
in terms of economic similarity and00:15:47
not so much complementarity even makes00:15:49
this distinction is not a position in00:15:51
terms of completing the economic but a00:15:53
position in terms of00:15:54
economic similarity between because they are two developing countries00:15:58
he is saying this here00:16:00
in 2000 in this phase from 2010 2011 to 201300:16:05
2008 forward is a position of00:16:08
economic similarity Between these two00:16:10
countries of being00:16:12
developing countries that seek and have the00:16:14
potential because they are also countries of00:16:15
continental dimensions have the00:16:17
potential to ultimately become countries of00:16:21
great weight from an economic point of view00:16:23
and light up even more because they00:16:25
have not completed their production cycle,00:16:28
so he is talking about a certain00:16:29
similarity in terms of position in00:16:32
terms of the need for development00:16:36
of their economy and also of their population00:16:39
in a second point that he indicates is00:16:44
also the idea of the volume of00:16:46
investment and trade that it ends up00:16:50
conditioning to a large extent relations00:16:52
between Brazil and China to the extent that00:16:54
this is almost inescapably favorable,00:16:56
right Professor Rafael ponso when we00:16:58
will think about certain lines of force in00:17:02
bilateral relations between two countries00:17:04
we can analyze the relationship between Brazil00:17:06
France relationship Brazil Germany relationship00:17:08
plus Argentina relationship Brazil United00:17:10
States relationship between Brazil anyway00:17:12
any country we stop to00:17:14
analyze the weight and this00:17:17
economic variable it imposes a degree of00:17:21
importance and it is a line of force00:17:23
He escapes, that's why it's very00:17:25
important, I think that's when we're00:17:28
going to analyze these side relationships.00:17:31
Be aware of what's non-00:17:34
ideological in this conversation, something that's00:17:37
not exactly00:17:39
partisan, not ideologically inclined,00:17:42
which is concrete, which has00:17:44
structural and this is one of the00:17:46
very important elements which is the weight of00:17:48
commercial relations the weight of00:17:51
investments and the position that this00:17:53
country occupies in bilateral relations in00:17:56
terms of trade balance so this is00:17:59
an almost inescapable variable in00:18:02
relations and it will condition any00:18:04
type of ruler over it and we00:18:08
have a third item which is also an00:18:11
item that the billion draws attention to which is00:18:12
cooperation in international forums in00:18:15
comparison of international forces00:18:16
this is an important point because00:18:19
we end up not00:18:20
understanding in certain detail but the00:18:24
alignment of positions, we talk about00:18:25
multilaterals, it is very important,00:18:28
especially for Brazil, which is00:18:30
a country that throughout its00:18:33
diplomatic history was a country that defended and00:18:36
understood that one of its great00:18:38
potentials for achieving things on the00:18:40
international stage was through00:18:43
its relations and from its00:18:45
diplomatic power from its00:18:46
diplomatic mobilization capacity from its00:18:48
ability to build consensus from its00:18:50
ability to interact with other00:18:52
countries and align and coordinate the00:18:55
alignment of positions So this is00:18:57
a dimension that places, according to the00:19:00
Guion, based on the Lula00:19:03
and Dilma's courses are like a third element00:19:05
that would leave these two countries and00:19:07
make these two countries closer to each00:19:10
other, so these three00:19:14
points are very important and they00:19:16
mark something that would be the core of these00:19:20
relationships, well, we also have another00:19:23
point that the professor00:19:24
will bring up and which involves the weight of00:19:29
relations between the United States and Brazil00:19:31
in this conversation and I think this is the00:19:34
big theme I think this is the big00:19:36
question of relations between Brazil and00:19:38
China which is the impact of this in relations00:19:40
between Brazil and the United States00:19:42
To think about00:19:45
China's relations and a good part of the comments that00:19:47
come to light, even the comments00:19:49
brought and the news brought by the00:19:51
information vehicles, what is the00:19:54
impact of this on relations with the00:19:56
United States? so I'm going to move on00:19:59
to this next line of reasoning,00:20:00
but first I'm going to make space here for00:20:02
Professor Pôncio to make his00:20:04
points.00:20:10
protagonist I'm here in this [ __ ]00:20:12
I'm going to pass this position on to him we00:20:15
'll change it, one time we'll00:20:16
count on the ball another time touch the ball,00:20:18
right? That's it Come on guys,00:20:20
first of all I would like to00:20:21
thank all the participants00:20:23
while Professor Frota was here00:20:25
doing his analysis about the relationship00:20:27
between Brazil and China and how the00:20:31
United States, right in a certain way, is00:20:33
now feeling, at least00:20:35
last weekend, a00:20:37
very big elbow actor, right, but look, guys, I00:20:39
wanted to say good night to everyone who is00:20:41
here in our chat,00:20:42
professor Carolina Rueda is here00:20:45
with us, we have good night here,00:20:47
Gabriel, girlane, Eduardo climbel,00:20:51
Thanks for being present, Melissa00:20:53
Isabela, we have here, gosh, Paulo de00:20:56
Paula, I appreciate the affection, Ruan, Leandro00:20:58
guys, the list is long Here we have00:21:00
a lot of interactions in our chat, then I00:21:03
'll even ask Frota to00:21:05
select some questions, there are many00:21:08
very interesting questions, they continue00:21:09
to participate here in our chat, I think00:21:11
we thought, right, your participation is00:21:13
very relevant, let's go Continuing to00:21:16
talk about relations between Brazil and China, right,00:21:17
something that has been making headlines in the00:21:20
newspapers, we increasingly realize how00:21:23
much China has been growing, right, in00:21:26
terms of its economic projection, its00:21:29
increasingly notable presence in the world,00:21:30
I would like Professor Frota, we are With 2100:21:33
minutes of Live I could start00:21:35
here with some images and then I'll00:21:37
come back to you, Lemos, feel free, I00:21:41
wanted to put up an image of the00:21:43
importance that China assumes in the world, right00:21:45
? And its relationship with the United States,00:21:47
as Frota had put it for us in this00:21:49
triangular relationship,00:21:52
that image, please, I would like00:21:54
you, who are watching us right now, to00:21:56
please this one, I would like00:21:59
you to please maximize this image, I don't00:22:01
know if you were suddenly watching it on your00:22:02
cell phone, but I'll try to translate it for00:22:04
you here it shows the main00:22:06
trading partners of the United States,00:22:08
so we have on the left side we00:22:12
have a column, right where it shows the00:22:14
trade balance of the United States, which00:22:16
is in deficit, it is negative at 1.1800:22:19
trillion dollars, these data are from the00:22:22
year of 2022 on the left side we see how00:22:26
much the United States imported,00:22:28
so in blue it appears perhaps very00:22:31
small, whoever wants it, I can00:22:32
send this image, take it easy, just you00:22:36
get in touch with me Anyway, I'll00:22:38
leave my email here later on ours00:22:40
chat but let's go to the left side let's00:22:43
analyze the left side, right, they are the00:22:45
countries from which the United States00:22:46
imports, so in the blue field00:22:49
the countries of North America are highlighted00:22:51
so we can see there Canada the00:22:54
first countries and Mexico is then the00:22:57
United States buy a lot of these two,00:22:59
the middle line, a00:23:02
darker blue, is the European countries and there, you00:23:05
know, we see a large list of countries, but00:23:07
what I want to draw attention to here is00:23:09
China. See the importance of Asia in the00:23:13
United States' import agenda00:23:16
which is the color represented here in00:23:18
red I don't know what color appears00:23:20
to you but to me it is a reddish tone00:23:23
among this group of Asian countries00:23:25
here we can clearly highlight China00:23:28
the00:23:30
impressive volume of which the United States00:23:33
Therefore and import from China So this00:23:36
data, these numbers here just show,00:23:38
I'm reinforcing our argument and that00:23:42
China is present in the00:23:44
import and export agenda of most00:23:46
countries in the world, so something like this00:23:49
is not new, now arriving in Brazil, the00:23:51
United States also has a relationship of00:23:54
very large interdependence with00:23:56
China and the point we want to draw00:23:58
attention to is how we can00:24:01
understand this Chinese phenomenon Professor00:24:03
Frota I don't know if I can continue here00:24:05
or if I can pass the buck with you, I can't continue with00:24:08
good reasoning, feel00:24:12
free00:24:16
Come on, I wanted to put to you00:24:19
a defense of a proposal to00:24:23
better understand the phenomenon of the Chinese Rise.00:24:26
Maybe we are at the moment where00:24:30
we are seeing a new00:24:32
social economic formation in China00:24:35
and that translates into00:24:37
market socialism, dear, come on, entrepreneurs,00:24:40
we we should not be afraid China is one00:24:43
nation and two systems and that means00:24:46
that00:24:47
China is the People's Republic of China00:24:50
dominated or controlled by the00:24:52
Chinese communist party that built a00:24:55
socialist Chinese version so we have00:25:00
already highlighted it on this slide Sorry,00:25:02
I don't want to stay a lot on the slides I00:25:03
have other other images more00:25:05
quickly just to mark our00:25:06
argument we are defending the00:25:08
argument that Chinese market socialism00:25:10
is substantially different00:25:13
from what we have studied and seen00:25:16
over the last five centuries of00:25:18
Western history regarding00:25:20
capitalism of state that emerged00:25:23
shortly after the formation of the00:25:26
European monarchies, the first00:25:28
European monarchies, right, and that after the origin of the00:25:31
era of hegemonies, with, uh,00:25:35
England's first hegemony00:25:37
succeeding and finally the current00:25:40
decadent North American hegemony, well,00:25:42
but the point What catches my attention I00:25:44
wanted to tell you is how00:25:46
we can understand this00:25:48
Chinese phenomenon so starting from this00:25:50
market socialism we have to understand that the00:25:52
core of this market socialism today00:25:55
are 9600:25:58
large business and state conglomerates00:26:03
they are responsible for 40% of all00:26:05
wealth generation in China, the remaining00:26:09
60% are from private Chinese companies. I00:26:13
wanted to draw your attention to00:26:14
state participation and control, which is the00:26:17
Communist Party's control over the00:26:19
wealth produced in the country.00:26:22
gave rise to a00:26:26
set of reforms, a set of00:26:28
decentralization policies of greater00:26:31
Chinese commercial openness, the00:26:33
Communist Party dominated 70% of what was00:26:37
produced in the country, in 1978, from then on,00:26:41
that number has changed, just as there was00:26:43
a reduction in control state-owned government on the00:26:48
production of wealth, that is, in 202100:26:51
we realized that the Chinese communist party00:26:54
only controlled 30%, well,00:26:57
come on, but what this data00:26:58
shows actually exists, despite00:27:02
this quantitative analysis of these00:27:04
numbers, we must look at something more00:27:07
relevant, which is here in our new00:27:09
blade, currently the Chinese state has00:27:13
a much greater capacity for00:27:15
intervention than it had in 78 And that00:27:18
's the big idea, this new00:27:21
social economic formation is precisely here00:27:23
and the cells of the Chinese communist party00:27:25
are present in private companies00:27:30
So if in 200200:27:32
27% of private companies had00:27:36
Chinese communist party cells in 2018 that00:27:39
number jumped to 48 what we00:27:41
want to tell you is how00:27:43
these cells work the00:27:44
Chinese Communist Party is very numerous it is00:27:46
made up of hundreds of thousands ok00:27:50
Chinese finally that has finally compacted with00:27:53
political system with Chinese political regime00:27:55
so we understand the00:27:58
infiltration of00:28:01
politicians specifically, right in the case of00:28:05
Communist Party cells that are00:28:08
infiltrated in these companies and this will00:28:11
generate a very large gain in productivity00:28:12
What are the advantages of the00:28:15
relationship starting company first allows00:28:17
grassroots party organizations00:28:19
out in this a channel so that00:28:22
companies can00:28:24
reach formulators and policies in a more appropriate way00:28:26
so that's why00:28:28
you can understand00:28:29
working with how it is, you know, it's much00:28:32
easier for00:28:34
a Chinese person00:28:36
to be able to export because of the00:28:39
clearance that there is a whole network of00:28:41
government infrastructure that provides00:28:44
support for small,00:28:46
medium, small, and large companies for00:28:51
small, medium, and large companies, so it is00:28:53
very interesting that there are a series00:28:56
of advantages that, in a way, are00:28:58
confirming this Economic strength that00:29:02
we are seeing and this00:29:03
Power Projection of China according to the great advantage00:29:05
allow owners to have access00:29:08
to better information about the00:29:10
policies, whatever these00:29:12
policies were, whether monetary,00:29:14
development, exchange rate policy,00:29:16
helping companies to avoid making00:29:19
wrong decisions in the environment00:29:22
before moving on to the next00:29:25
slide Frota would like to make any comments,00:29:28
you can continue as I'm just00:29:31
replying to the chat here, okay. Please, it's00:29:32
very interesting for us to put it00:29:35
to you that perhaps this is a00:29:38
new model of technological economic development00:29:42
with substantiated in the Chinese model that in00:29:46
a way wins by spreading around the00:29:49
Globe the next slide you are00:29:52
seeing this image it is very00:29:53
representative we even took advantage of this00:29:55
image from a last Live but it shows00:29:58
the biggest commercial partners for the00:30:01
country in 2000 and 2020 So Let's go, in the00:30:04
image above, we can see,00:30:07
in the blue color, the strength and penetration of00:30:12
North American influence over these00:30:14
regions spread around the globe. In the00:30:17
image, right, in the world map below, you can00:30:19
already understand, Green, that China is00:30:22
coming dominated not only, right, a large part of the00:30:25
African continent, but also South America00:30:28
and Asia, right? And why not there, too bad00:30:31
the map didn't show but Oceania?00:30:42
project, right?00:31:03
for00:31:04
you00:31:05
and therefore the strategic importance of00:31:08
Brazil being part of this circuit which00:31:11
is very important not only for00:31:12
Brazilian companies But for Brazil to00:31:14
also take advantage of it in a certain way, here00:31:16
is our suggestion, right, for00:31:19
policymakers because Brazil00:31:21
Enjoy is this this very00:31:24
large amount of investments that will be00:31:26
allocated that has already been allocated to00:31:29
a series of regions around the world,00:31:30
see, I remember that since 2004/2005,00:31:35
China was the country that financed the most and00:31:37
brought the most00:31:39
foreign investments to the00:31:41
African continent. and China Unlike00:31:44
Western countries, it invests, it00:31:47
invests in infrastructure. So it00:31:50
builds, it will build a plant,00:31:52
right, a medicine laboratory, for00:31:54
example in Angola, it builds the00:31:57
airport, the00:31:58
entire railway, it built the entire00:32:01
infrastructure so that it is possible to00:32:03
finally establish a commercial relationship00:32:07
with their locals this is00:32:09
substantially different from the way00:32:11
the accidental and especially here00:32:13
speaking the United States had been00:32:15
practicing, so it is very interesting00:32:18
that the practical result of this shows us00:32:21
in empirical terms in the Forbes list, right,00:32:25
which is about traditional over known,00:32:27
right, it was launched of the 90s, for00:32:29
the first time in the history of this00:32:33
Forbes list, the United States no longer has00:32:36
the country with the largest number of companies00:32:39
on its list, in other words, since00:32:42
last year, China00:32:45
is currently the country with the largest00:32:48
number of companies in terms of right, of the00:32:51
largest companies in the world, of the 500,00:32:55
China has 129, 600:32:58
of which are in Taiwan, so if you are00:33:01
watching us here you must be aware00:33:03
of what is happening there, right, in the sea, in00:33:06
Japan, the China Sea,00:33:08
especially in that region. in Taiwan,00:33:11
China carried out a maritime exercise, a00:33:14
military exercise that was very00:33:16
complicated, it brought Maybe, right, a00:33:21
proposal there, maybe China will invade,00:33:23
Maybe it's Ukraine, anyway, so that's00:33:28
how it attracts a lot of attention, but an00:33:30
issue very peculiar to Taiwan is a00:33:33
call for city in the state where there is one of00:33:36
the largest some of the largest companies00:33:39
and semiconductors in the world and we are00:33:41
talking about chip manufacturing which is00:33:43
fundamental for industry and00:33:45
especially for the arms industry00:33:48
ready, okay, here I can send00:33:50
bullets, you can continue, I'll be right there00:33:53
complementing you,00:33:55
oh again, I'm going to ask for your patience.00:33:58
Maybe it wasn't that good, but the00:34:03
map I want to put up for you,00:34:04
come on, you can see it on the screen, it's00:34:07
almost like a football there, right, with00:34:09
its dividers just to contrast a00:34:13
little. for you, the size, the weight, of the00:34:16
Chinese economy, but I want to bring00:34:18
some reflections, not just comparison, see00:34:22
the United States next door has a GDP of00:34:25
around 25 trillion, while00:34:28
China has 19, well, the data shows that00:34:30
maybe in 2030, maybe a little before, a00:34:33
margin of error, China will surpass the00:34:35
United States, but I want to draw00:34:36
attention and even many colleagues,00:34:38
finally, viewers asked some00:34:41
questions in the chat about whether00:34:43
China will by any chance be the next gemon, if it00:34:46
will finally build a new00:34:48
international order we want to bring up00:34:50
some points here, of course this00:34:52
requires a slightly more sophisticated analysis, right?00:34:55
What would a00:34:59
combination of hard power and soft power be, hegemony,00:35:01
but what we want to draw attention to00:35:03
here is the following, let's go, look00:35:05
again, look look closely at00:35:08
this image, so we have Asia00:35:12
taking on a very large dimension,00:35:14
China, Japan, people,00:35:16
Taiwan, South Korea, like India and00:35:19
Indonesia, let's say in the Asia block as the00:35:22
most prominent countries, of course, in00:35:24
North America we have the00:35:26
United States without shadow of doubt, but what I00:35:28
also want to draw attention to is00:35:30
that sphere for Europe, for that00:35:32
part of the South Southeast, let's say,00:35:35
this is the ball, and I wanted to draw00:35:38
attention and perhaps put a point of00:35:41
provocation, it's much more reflection, which is00:35:44
the following everyone has heard00:35:45
of that anachronistic acronym called00:35:48
brics, right, which is part of Brazil, Russia,00:35:52
China, India and South Africa, a00:35:56
series of analysts said that perhaps00:35:57
the brics are offering a00:36:01
form of opposition to the G7, so we00:36:06
are trying to put it to you here00:36:07
for the purpose of analyzing that maybe the00:36:10
brics00:36:12
are for China Let's put it like this00:36:15
what the G7 was for the United States of the00:36:17
Posses, right, if I was in the world war00:36:19
Remembering that the G7 Come on guys,00:36:21
what are the countries that are part of All00:36:23
right, here, first,00:36:24
United States, right, the leader, United States, Canada,00:36:27
ready, let's go now to Europe, Germany,00:36:29
France, United Kingdom, Italy, Oops, there's one00:36:33
missing in Japan. So, we00:36:37
believe that over the last 20 years, the G700:36:41
has been failing in its attempts to00:36:43
offer answers. for00:36:46
systemic problems on this map here we00:36:49
see map finally in this image we00:36:51
see the size of the brics start00:36:54
adding up here people the size of China take00:36:56
a look at Brazil Brazil is just00:36:58
below China is Russia take a00:37:01
look at the size right you go see that the00:37:03
brix almost in terms of00:37:07
size of economist almost the same00:37:09
size as the G700:38:06
for a series of reasons that are not00:38:07
relevant for us to comment now so we00:38:10
have first place United Kingdom great00:38:12
probability of 70 and a few percent00:38:15
of recession followed by New Zealand in00:38:19
third place, people are amazed, United00:38:20
States Wow, let's continue How many00:38:23
countries received have already been here00:38:25
United Kingdom first is New Zealand is out00:38:27
United States second country Germany comes00:38:30
in fourth place and Italy Canada France00:38:34
Hello people from the seven countries with the highest00:38:38
probability of recession 6 there are 17 on00:38:42
the other hand and where are the brics?00:38:45
What's the deal with this map?00:38:56
If you are in a smaller00:38:59
situation, you are already in the South, which is00:39:02
close to France there, but just to show00:39:04
you a little,00:39:06
it is important how important it is00:39:08
for us to debate getting to know each other better, right,00:39:11
this socialism in the Chinese market that00:39:13
China is doing with this00:39:16
economy of design is what00:39:19
people have been commenting on00:39:21
what China has been putting in place, that is to say,00:39:24
9 economics of design,00:39:28
globalization introduced by China, this00:39:29
is a concept that00:39:32
analysts have increasingly been working on00:39:35
and I wanted to finish, I think these00:39:38
slides here Now that we have these00:39:40
slides, it's ready, we're already shaking00:39:42
these slides here together, everyone, keep an00:39:43
eye on the face, keep an eye on the screen, people and00:39:45
people, people, people, then00:39:48
he's asking here in the chat for some00:39:50
references to these slides in the00:39:52
specialty of maps are showing00:39:53
later you can share it here with00:39:56
Surely we will00:39:58
share it later in the chat for sure and00:40:00
I just wanted to show this last image00:40:02
here it is guys so I'll give the00:40:03
floor back to Frota This last image it00:40:06
has is Brazil is wanting being part of the00:40:09
belt initiative on the route00:40:11
affectionately here, right, it's called by us00:40:14
as a new silk route Okay, but that's00:40:16
the most correct term used by this one00:40:19
for this globalization instituted by00:40:22
China, let's analyze the map, what's00:40:24
China's great idea so much? by00:40:27
land modes as well as by00:40:29
sea mode The idea is China through00:40:32
its new development bank, right that00:40:36
our former president Dilma as00:40:37
president of this bank of the brics, right00:40:39
specifically brics, but China comes00:40:42
through this bank to also finance00:40:45
a series of destroyed projects00:40:49
along these countries that you00:40:51
see along these routes,00:40:52
so of course there are a series of countries00:40:55
that are not present here in this00:40:58
initiative, in short, others that entered00:41:01
after the creation of this design, ok people,00:41:03
no, this one is not the one. most current model00:41:06
but at least it's the model I had00:41:07
available from the year 2022 but just to00:41:11
show you a little bit of the00:41:13
importance that China has been00:41:15
assuming in the sense that it has been00:41:17
creating a new form of globalization00:41:21
via construction investments of00:41:24
infrastructure in countries where00:41:27
these resources are welcome and00:41:29
Unlike that00:41:32
Western Liberal globalization led by the00:41:36
United States that often left aside00:41:41
regions such as Central America and00:41:43
South America and also because we don't00:41:45
talk about the African continent,00:41:48
China for other side about Taking advantage of00:41:49
these power vacuums, these spaces00:41:52
opened by American diplomacy, so it00:41:54
's very interesting, we bring this00:41:57
topic up for debate because it's normal in00:42:00
democracies, in this case, talking about Brazil, the00:42:02
United States, we noticed00:42:05
a certain discomfort, right, there at the White House,00:42:10
taking into account Given that Lula00:42:12
recently spoke about00:42:14
personal de-dollarization in China, everything is within00:42:17
the context of this new logic that00:42:20
China has been implementing through a00:42:23
series of measures, you know, that00:42:26
it is increasingly trying to create perhaps a new00:42:29
international order with a new currency00:42:32
decreasing the weight of the dollar decreases00:42:34
therefore decreasing00:42:35
the influence of the Petro dollars in the region00:42:38
China has been launching itself as a power in a00:42:41
certain way that seeks the passive solution00:42:44
of controversies, it established 12 points, you00:42:46
know, in the issue of the Ukraine war, it didn't00:42:48
work out very well, but it had a way of00:42:50
practical result there, an agreement between00:42:52
Iran and the United Arab Emirates, right, even00:42:55
our president Lula was in the United00:42:56
Arab Emirates yesterday making a series of00:42:58
agreements, let's see if these agreements will00:42:59
come to fruition, but just to show00:43:01
you that the new foreign policy,00:43:04
pardon the new No, but current foreign policy00:43:07
is attentive to the00:43:10
possibilities that are00:43:11
unfolding, right? And then we highlight the00:43:14
great role of China, relations between00:43:16
Brazil and China, Fleet.00:43:21
If you want to take00:43:23
the slide here, thank you, you ca00:43:26
n't imagine Professor Rafael Ponso was00:43:29
excellent and we already have a series of00:43:32
comments that were being made here00:43:34
in the chat, including from Guilherme himself,00:43:36
our coordinator is here, he made a00:43:39
comment about demonstrating here on the screen,00:43:41
right, taking advantage Professor00:43:42
Rafael's speech, the author of the concept of brics and00:43:45
embremer, has a book called end of the00:43:47
book, market, who wins the war between the00:43:49
state and corporations, did a reading that was00:43:51
recommended to us. Thank you00:43:53
Guilherme for your participation and also00:43:55
for the recommendation, we will now move on00:43:58
to So, the question block has00:44:01
a lot of comments here, we00:44:03
really appreciate your audience, your participation,00:44:04
we have almost 100 people here00:44:06
watching us, so it's a pleasure, a00:44:08
privilege, to have your audience and to have00:44:11
you here with us, accompanying us,00:44:12
interacting, interacting with each other, also00:44:14
interacting. Here it is with us, I wanted to00:44:17
get a good teacher, it's just like this,00:44:20
now this baton that you gave me, I00:44:22
gave it to you a lot, now I'm taking it again from00:44:24
the speech towards and00:44:27
complementing it, I think a complement came in here,00:44:29
well, eh, eh, so00:44:33
harmonious between the tunnel of reasoning and00:44:36
the subtitle of reasoning that I started00:44:38
with,00:44:39
sharing here a little of what00:44:42
José Augusto gulão brings in that00:44:44
text and at the very end of the text00:44:46
he makes a series of recommendations,00:44:49
especially thinking about the impact of00:44:50
relations between Brazil and China in the case00:44:53
of relations from Brazil, I think this is the00:44:55
key point, which is what generates00:45:00
sense, which generates controversy, which generates00:45:04
most of the news that we see,00:45:06
finally, how to harmonize this relationship00:45:10
between Brazil and the United States and at the same00:45:13
time the relationship between Brazil and China, I think00:45:15
that this is the big The big question of00:45:18
Brazilian politics today if we00:45:20
think00:45:21
from the point of view of the relationship with the two00:45:24
big economies the biggest00:45:26
economies in the world today then00:45:28
certainly This is an answer that00:45:30
there is more than one question more than one,00:45:33
this is a question that there is00:45:35
more than one answer to it and I00:45:38
consider that in addition to the reasoning adopted00:45:40
by Professor José guilhao, it is a00:45:42
very perspective line of reasoning00:45:45
on this subject and he00:45:48
adopts some recommendations in light of this,00:45:51
we take up a little what would be the00:45:53
title of the article which is this idea of00:45:57
triangular relations between Brazil China00:46:00
and the United States what it implies is an00:46:03
intelligence to both establish00:46:06
relations and maintain your your channel of00:46:10
dialogue your channel of communication your00:46:12
channel of cooperation open, whether with00:46:14
Brazil, the United States or00:46:16
China, he brings two recommendations that00:46:18
I think are quite opportune, which is,00:46:21
firstly, what he calls offs, which00:46:23
would be a kind of00:46:29
caution00:46:32
both in relations between Brazil and the00:46:34
United States, United against relations between00:46:35
Brazil and China. In other words, we have to00:46:36
think about this relationship always with our feet on00:46:39
the ground, it reduces our passions a little, right?00:46:42
Put it like that, it reduces the heat00:46:45
of our emotions a little to think about these two00:46:47
relationships because they are extremely00:46:50
important for the00:46:51
National development, these two relationships have a00:46:54
very great strategic weight for00:46:56
Brazilian development and this is00:46:58
necessary for us to put our feet00:47:01
on the ground and always carefully analyze00:47:03
these two relationships, I think this is a00:47:06
first, he says this00:47:08
even well doing mention of the position that00:47:12
China occupies now and we don't know what00:47:15
will happen in the next 80 years00:47:17
if we look back at the00:47:20
18th century 19th century the United States was a00:47:22
power and rise00:47:24
it gained this dimension from00:47:27
the transition from 19th century of the 20th century00:47:29
that it actually becomes this great00:47:31
power, then in the 20th century it becomes the00:47:34
main power by composing to00:47:37
occupy this top position from the point of00:47:40
view of security from the point of view of the00:47:41
economy from the point of view of capacity00:47:42
of mobilization also diplomatic so00:47:45
it became this great00:47:47
Germanic power from the end of the00:47:50
20th century but there is a history this00:47:52
was not always like this this position was not always00:47:55
occupied by the North American State00:47:57
this position was occupied by England00:47:59
it was blamed by others countries also00:48:00
before them, so José Augusto00:48:04
says this, be careful because we do00:48:06
n't know what will happen in 5000:48:08
or 80 years, we won't know who00:48:11
will be in that position, if anyone will00:48:14
be in that position as a great power.00:48:16
energy as Victorious, so it is very00:48:18
important00:48:20
that we, as a developing Economy,00:48:23
maintain00:48:26
our dialogue channels and maintain00:48:28
relations with both countries, looking for00:48:31
what is best for00:48:32
National development, we can00:48:35
backfire if the we choose just one of00:48:37
these relationships and we end up in the00:48:40
next 40 or 50 years with an economy that00:48:42
will not bring the benefits we00:48:46
need for00:48:47
Brazilian development, so for us to complete00:48:49
our cycles, we develop as we00:48:51
need. So it is very important to have00:48:53
caution And this is what the first00:48:54
observation that José Augusto makes is a00:48:56
second and I think this is one of the ones that I00:48:59
also see00:49:00
I have seen other analysts00:49:03
share Professor points that the00:49:05
idea of non-alignment and non-00:49:07
alignment is a term that has a00:49:10
ballast within the history of00:49:12
non-Brazilian diplomacy, but especially it has a00:49:14
World diplomatic history, it is a00:49:16
term that implies that you will not00:49:19
align with either the United States,00:49:21
non-alignment does not mean not00:49:24
establishing economic relations, it does not mean00:49:26
not establishing00:49:29
commercial agreements, not establishing relations00:49:31
diplomatic It's nothing like that, non-00:49:32
alignment, it's you not having00:49:36
automatic adherence to the positions of one country or00:49:38
another when you are inserted both00:49:41
laterally and in any type00:49:44
of insertion that a country will have in its00:49:47
relations, non-alignment, so it has00:49:49
a ballast which dates back to the 1950s,00:49:52
especially in the Korean War,00:49:54
starting in the 1950s, we00:49:56
had a group of countries that were00:49:58
non-Allied movements, then00:49:59
strengthened in the 1970s, but which began in the00:50:01
1950s, following a declaration in00:50:03
the United Nations of a state in00:50:07
India and also00:50:09
of other countries that ended up understanding00:50:11
that they should not take a position00:50:13
in support of any of the countries in the00:50:16
Korean War, so non-aligned movements00:50:19
begin to happen during this period,00:50:20
then it takes on a series of00:50:22
characteristics. it has been left00:50:24
aside over a period of history00:50:27
but it is a term that has a certain00:50:29
weight in World diplomatic history00:50:31
I have seen Professor Pons other00:50:34
professors of international history and00:50:37
foreign policy analysis00:50:39
professors who are our peers here in the00:50:41
field of international relations00:50:43
using this key concept00:50:47
within the analysis of foreign policy and00:50:51
this concept is important that we00:50:53
differentiate it from what would be another00:50:56
concept that is also widely used and00:50:58
has been mentioned a lot when00:51:00
we think about relations between Brazil and00:51:02
China and what position does the00:51:04
United States occupy in this, which is this mention of00:51:06
a phase of Brazilian politics00:51:08
in the 1930s, which was why00:51:11
pragmatic distance, so you see00:51:13
that pragmatic distance is a term00:51:15
that was also coined a lot. a00:51:17
very important term that is a00:51:21
line of Brazilian foreign policy00:51:22
between the first and second world war,00:51:25
especially if Brazil was going to take a00:51:28
position of00:51:30
entering the war together with the00:51:34
United States or with Germany, then there00:51:36
was this possibility of which side00:51:39
that Brazil he was going to take over he was going to00:51:42
adopt this became known in the00:51:45
literature how pragmatic distance Brazil gained with both00:51:48
both sides remaining in favor of the00:51:51
Allies this even gave us a series of00:51:53
benefits As was the company's own case00:51:55
international one of the greatest00:51:57
achievements in this period and which to this day00:51:59
is extremely important for00:52:00
Brazilian development. This was an00:52:02
achievement of this foreign policy strategy00:52:04
that00:52:06
we would not have had any pragmatic distance if we did not00:52:08
have00:52:09
this foreign policy strategy00:52:10
at that time that it gave us00:52:12
an important company for00:52:14
Brazilian development so here00:52:17
it was during this period what00:52:21
differentiates pragmatics from non-00:52:25
alignment How far does pragmatics00:52:27
imply that you will at some point00:52:30
take a side00:52:32
that in a certain way you are bargaining00:52:34
and carrying out a negotiation process but00:52:36
in the end you end up00:52:38
adopting a position and taking one side, that00:52:41
's not the case here because there's no00:52:44
war, it's declared, there's no context, it's00:52:48
belligerent, expressed. Of course, there is00:52:50
a war in the other sense, so00:52:53
we can debate that, I think. that it is00:52:55
important that we can even take into00:52:58
consideration this other dimension of00:52:59
international relations that the relationship that00:53:02
there is that war has no end that00:53:04
war does not end and we can bring00:53:06
the video clause clause here and00:53:08
say that look at the war is the rule and00:53:13
we are in a war scenario but it00:53:15
is not it is certainly not in the00:53:18
same terms as the First00:53:19
World War or the Second World War and00:53:22
in this sense it is important to perhaps00:53:24
create this subtlety between the which is00:53:27
an element and what it is and what a00:53:29
pragmatic distance and I think this is what Augusto brings00:53:33
with great insight and I have00:53:36
seen other teachers, our00:53:38
peers, sharing this but in00:53:39
newspaper articles, right, good professors here, we00:53:42
have seen a lot of people comment on these00:53:44
issues it's for international media for00:53:46
national media and I think this is an00:53:48
important point And then I would like00:53:49
Professor Pons, before giving the00:53:51
floor back to you, we can play for the00:53:52
questions, just finish my line of00:53:55
reasoning, which is this idea that what00:53:58
what we see it as strategic and that it00:54:01
causes a certain fissure00:54:04
in relation to relations between Brazil and00:54:08
the United States, in the following sense00:54:10
that a large part of what bothers00:54:13
relations between Brazil and China in00:54:15
relations between the United States is the00:54:17
fact that there is is a dimension that00:54:20
needs to be protected in the understanding00:54:21
of Americans and this and this dimension if00:54:24
protected is the idea of security and the00:54:28
idea also of democracy so these00:54:30
two values when we think about00:54:32
Brazil and the United States is something that00:54:35
we see that these two points that do not touch00:54:37
on relations between Brazil and China is00:54:39
when we think about00:54:40
security issues and a security agenda00:54:42
between Brazil and China in00:54:44
bilateral relations, we do not see that this is in00:54:47
fact an issue that starts to create00:54:51
trade agreements in area of security00:54:53
and defense you see that this is a care00:54:56
that Brazilian society takes and this is00:55:00
in a certain way Maybe it is an00:55:01
established limit this here I leave with a00:55:04
hypothesis Professor post I would like to hear00:55:06
a little of your opinion in relation to00:55:08
this leave as a hypothesis of a certain00:55:11
limit that can perhaps be drawn00:55:13
by the Americans in relation to the relations00:55:15
between Brazil and China, which is this limit00:55:17
of security, this limit of how much in00:55:20
security terms this relationship00:55:22
advances or not because certainly a00:55:28
Continental dimension that the United States, it00:55:30
will defend it at any cost, that is this00:55:33
strategic advantage that is this00:55:37
American continent, it is, in a certain00:55:38
way, an area of00:55:40
North American influence, they have an area of00:55:41
influence, the00:55:43
North American military strategy is much more than the00:55:45
Chinese one, without no doubt, so00:55:48
we have this limit, which perhaps00:55:49
is a limit that cannot00:55:53
be exceeded But this is a hypothesis00:55:56
that I leave here Professor, points to00:55:58
even hear your opinion00:56:00
and another and another just to complete the00:56:03
reasoning and a another dimension is00:56:05
especially the dimension of Democracy00:56:07
so you can see that this is also a00:56:10
very important flag for the00:56:11
North Americans and that they will in a certain00:56:13
way also defend and will also00:56:15
act if this is in check to00:56:19
some extent so in Minas Gerais This00:56:21
was that line of reasoning, please,00:56:24
this hypothesis was fantastic Fleet,00:56:28
issues related to security and00:56:29
democracy as limits, right, of the Chinese sphere of00:56:33
influence in00:56:36
Western space, right, let's say the territory00:56:38
covering international waters, it even00:56:41
reminded me of the opaque ones here00:56:44
specifically talking about the issue00:56:46
of security, right, that the zone of peace and00:56:49
cooperation in the South Atlantic asopacas00:56:51
would be, right, in this case, an abbreviation where some00:56:56
analysts have published and a series of00:57:01
Naval School periodicals, finally, related00:57:05
to the aspect of Brazilian Defense,00:57:08
showing that perhaps soon,00:57:09
perhaps very soon the00:57:12
Chinese battleships will start patrolling the00:57:14
South Atlantic00:57:16
And then it will put it in checkmate00:57:18
Exactly that Fleet of this00:57:21
fissure that you mentioned of this00:57:24
sphere of influence00:57:32
Professor Rafael Pons I think he00:57:34
blocked his connection a little bit00:57:36
I can when you resume I will remove00:57:39
you leave the screen here for a little bit and then00:57:41
when you come back I'll put you back00:57:42
here, okay, you can connect with me here00:57:45
through the other communication channels00:57:47
we have. When you come back, I'll00:57:49
put you back here again.00:57:54
Take advantage now and comment a little on the00:57:58
statement that Professor Guilherme made,00:58:00
right here in the chat, Guilherme says this,00:58:04
currently, if detachment from the current government is00:58:06
classified as not active alignment,00:58:08
exactly Professor Guilherme and I00:58:10
believe that this line of00:58:12
reasoning that is adopted by00:58:14
politics today Brazilian and which outlines this00:58:16
idea of active non-alignment and00:58:19
this text that I tried to share00:58:21
with our students, I believe00:58:22
it to be, is very pertinent in the sense00:58:25
that it summarizes a little of this00:58:29
core,00:58:30
this rationality that is behind00:58:34
Intelligence Brazilian in relations00:58:36
between Brazil and China and Brazil and the00:58:38
United States and which indicates the type of strategy00:58:41
that is being drawn up, which is a00:58:42
strategy precisely in alignment,00:58:44
not active alignment, and José Augusto himself00:58:47
puts this idea of a non-00:58:52
element as something that needs to be active00:58:54
and he calls it a positive agenda00:58:56
and this positive agenda that José00:58:59
Augusto mentions is that even00:59:02
if you don't align yourself with any of these00:59:03
great powers, you00:59:06
now have and must have a00:59:10
positive agenda towards them, right? so it's not a00:59:13
passive alignment but it's an00:59:16
active non-alignment it's a00:59:18
positive and especially peaceful non-element and I think00:59:21
this is a very important point and00:59:23
certainly this idea of you having an00:59:26
active agenda and an agenda that takes into00:59:29
account this capacity that00:59:32
politics is in Brazil00:59:33
historically has to produce consensus00:59:36
this politics is in Brazil has to00:59:38
try to sew relationships that is one00:59:42
thing Maybe it is a political capital a00:59:44
social capital that is present in the00:59:47
rationality that is behind this00:59:49
Brazilian international insertion of this00:59:52
idea of a00:59:53
triangular relationship and here a positive agenda00:59:56
depends a lot on the direction, it is also about seeking00:59:59
this agenda based on a01:00:02
peaceful resolution of controversies, in other words, this01:00:05
also means boasting as being not only01:00:08
someone who occupies a position of01:00:10
distance of not being looked at, but01:00:12
also01:00:13
someone which seeks a position to seek01:00:17
to resolve controversies and we see for01:00:19
example the position that Brazil is01:00:21
taking today in relation to trying to01:00:24
indicate a potential and contribute to01:00:29
the peace process in the war in Ukraine,01:00:31
it is coming a little in this01:00:33
direction towards Brazil having no01:00:35
active look is or not looking is but it is an01:00:37
alignment that seeks these01:00:39
peaceful solutions to disputes is an01:00:41
alignment that seeks to try to resolve01:00:44
disputes through01:00:47
peaceful means through01:00:50
diplomatic means I will put it again my01:00:52
colleague Professor Rafael Ponso is back01:00:54
here Professor Rafael, thank you for coming01:00:57
back, I just removed you, now you01:00:59
're back, I was talking a little about01:01:01
an expression that Professor Guilherme01:01:03
brought up, which is the idea of an active element and,01:01:05
to a large extent, Professor José01:01:08
Augusto, back in 2014, he already gave this01:01:11
he already managed to summarize this core of the01:01:15
reasoning that today is certainly not01:01:17
being implemented,01:01:19
so if you want to finish the01:01:22
idea you were developing,01:01:24
otherwise we'll move on to the01:01:25
words for the questions we have,01:01:28
I'll go quickly here, that's it. To01:01:31
close, sorry, we fell on the01:01:33
internet badly, here I just wanted to ask a01:01:35
question that maybe it is within the01:01:38
active alignment, you know, from this01:01:41
perspective that is now being seen of01:01:43
Brazil's international insertion with the01:01:46
government of Lula 3, which is perhaps a concept01:01:48
of revisionism smooth, you can01:01:53
see both01:01:54
emulators, this is the implementation of a01:01:58
set of just speeches but of01:02:02
programs for creating new geometries01:02:04
such as the commercial G20, the brics itself, the01:02:09
ibas, among others, the G4 itself, also an01:02:12
attempt to remodel the01:02:15
world governance system and here we call01:02:17
attention to this, even in the triangular relationship01:02:20
Brazil China United States in this01:02:24
way in which Brazil has been implementing01:02:27
the defense of its National interests01:02:29
in the sense of proposing a reform of the01:02:31
Security Council but which01:02:34
truly mirrors the interests of a01:02:36
group of countries that are now part01:02:39
of a completely different logic01:02:40
from the logic that the United Nations system01:02:43
was created, right? So maybe we01:02:46
need to understand a little more,01:02:48
sorry, understand, no, we need to01:02:51
maybe negotiate more with the United States01:02:55
so that it can pay more attention to01:02:58
the needs of its01:03:00
South American space, which it should be your area01:03:03
of influence, right, or it was already during the01:03:05
cold war and we realized that since the01:03:07
90s this space was slowly01:03:10
being left aside, creating01:03:12
opportunities for come on,01:03:14
messianic leaders, right, Petro01:03:18
populists and then we highlight a01:03:20
series of presidents populists01:03:22
using, in this case, natural resources01:03:25
as a source of power, specifically01:03:27
talking about Hugo Chaves01:03:30
Rafael Correia Evo Morales, right, so it's01:03:33
very interesting that we just bring up01:03:35
this issue that the entire01:03:37
North American agenda for the region is always01:03:39
focused on two drug trafficking themes and01:03:42
international migrations alone,01:03:45
and if that wasn't enough, it becomes critical,01:03:49
right, this review of the01:03:51
North American stance that whenever there is a01:03:54
country here in South America,01:03:56
Central America with IMF problems with01:03:58
its conditionality booklet, then01:04:00
China was offering a proposal,01:04:02
let's say from the point of view of01:04:05
National interest, but feasible, more reasonable in terms of the01:04:10
idea of building an infrastructure,01:04:13
which is what demands, right, a set of01:04:17
medium and long-term investments, and01:04:21
this in the United States was left aside,01:04:22
right, Professor Frato put the question very well01:04:25
what pragmatic distance did we01:04:26
gain through that bargain,01:04:29
right? so far, the security company01:04:34
robbed company Siderúrgica at CSN,01:04:37
sorry company Siderúrgica Nacional,01:04:39
so we have to evaluate the weight of the01:04:41
variables that are at play in order to01:04:43
try to understand, right, how Brazil01:04:45
can know how to take advantage of, let's say, this01:04:51
trade war between the United States and01:04:54
China, know how to take advantage of it, as the professor,01:04:55
photo, put it very well, how01:04:58
far is Brazil from trying to extract from01:05:00
the United States certain01:05:01
elements that are of interest to01:05:03
Brazil in the same way that Brazil comes01:05:05
doing with China just before01:05:07
finishing, just very important, right,01:05:09
throughout these four months of government01:05:10
in February, Brazil, President Lula01:05:13
went to the United States and he came back01:05:15
with an empty suitcase, now Lula went to01:05:18
China and came back with a suitcase with more than01:05:19
two dozen agreements, so it is something that01:05:21
the United States, the White House itself,01:05:23
needs to offer a01:05:27
South American agenda, a01:05:28
Latin American agenda that can be01:05:32
accepted, right, if you are going to analyze the01:05:34
project in the area of free01:05:37
trade, which later became the01:05:39
FTAA, Alckmin's proposal became01:05:41
empty after a while, right, but it stays01:05:43
here, so in this case, this prerogative, right,01:05:46
the White House started to look01:05:48
more closely at its01:05:50
South American steps, Fleet, please,01:05:53
thank you for the count but we have01:05:55
a series of comments here and01:05:58
they are here in the chat me guys I will I wo01:06:01
n't be able to I won't be able to01:06:03
Reply them all here and post them one by one01:06:05
It would be a pleasure, a privilege to be able to01:06:08
do this, we can respond one by one one,01:06:09
I selected some, I wanted to start01:06:13
here with a comment from Glauco01:06:15
Professor Okay, I think you could01:06:16
comment on this, which is closely associated with01:06:19
what you01:06:20
develop, people on that map01:06:22
talking about routes, he does this, this01:06:25
rapprochement, professors, with China, in addition01:06:27
to being a of the largest economies in the01:06:28
world would be the new silk route01:06:32
Ah, without a doubt it would be like that, it01:06:35
would be the new route, right, making an allusion at01:06:37
that time to the time described by01:06:41
Marco Polo's travels, right about the01:06:43
silkworm That that set of01:06:46
that massive flow of people, goods and01:06:49
services that intersect the space, a01:06:53
very vast world,01:06:55
encompassing and permeated by a series of01:06:58
cultures, if you look at the01:07:02
Belt and Road project, the Belt01:07:04
and Road initiative is exactly in this01:07:08
context And then, of course, for a01:07:10
much more reality complex today by modalities, right01:07:13
in this case, the proposal that you will see01:07:15
there, this new silk road, is a01:07:18
set of01:07:20
transport infrastructures connecting these most varied01:07:23
cities and,01:07:26
in a way, creating new realities in01:07:29
commercial dynamics that often01:07:31
escape the control of the State itself.01:07:33
nation So it would be exactly Glauco, even an01:07:36
excellent question in this sense01:07:38
Professor, now we have two other01:07:41
questions, I think they are01:07:42
connected, I will say them at once01:07:44
and then if you can comment, I01:07:46
would like to comment on the next one. Okay, so let's01:07:48
put them here for you then. Isaías01:07:51
talks like this, thinking in a macro way,01:07:52
a new world economic order may be designing01:07:55
and here01:07:57
Isaías' question is very similar to01:08:00
Jéssica's question, which is the following,01:08:01
we know that China is already a power in01:08:04
international cell phones, but with this step01:08:06
we can consider a more01:08:07
palpable replacement of US hegemony by01:08:10
Chinese hegemony, I think the two01:08:12
questions are well connected, to be able to01:08:14
comment on these two questions, that's what01:08:17
we're trying to discover, right?01:08:21
empirical,01:08:25
empirical data, China has been building01:08:28
a set of efforts to01:08:30
build a new international order,01:08:31
let's go, its image, similarity, right,01:08:35
creating a set of partners,01:08:37
including the BRICS and other partners in01:08:40
Southeast Asia, Vietnam,01:08:42
mainly, is a country, finally, that01:08:45
has been taking over a series of factories,01:08:48
installations of what we could call, you know,01:08:50
the ribs of the Chinese dragon, now01:08:54
on the other hand we need this01:08:56
order to be gaining speed and01:08:59
the transitions of international hours are01:09:02
often carried out through of01:09:04
shocks, right? We hope that the01:09:07
results of these shocks do not translate into01:09:09
wars, but perhaps the war of the skull is already01:09:12
a fracture point for the construction01:09:14
of a new international order, but01:09:16
come on, I think that, in parallel,01:09:19
that is, we have to think about the second01:09:22
question that Jéssica points out01:09:24
that all the exchanges of01:09:27
international orders, right after that, there was01:09:30
the emergence of an engemon. We01:09:34
believe, based on a series of01:09:36
authors in specialized literature,01:09:38
that we defend the hypothesis that we have reached01:09:40
the end of the era of hegemonies like01:09:43
us we know that01:09:46
Westphalian model That01:09:49
Eurocentric model, right, gemon, that the01:09:52
first two hegemonies were European, the01:09:55
Netherlands, then England, after the01:09:56
20th century, but precisely from the01:10:00
second world war onwards, it is the center of01:10:03
Power, right, the World, it moves from Europe,01:10:05
across the Atlantic, to the States01:10:07
United and today we are seeing again01:10:09
a Global restructuring based there01:10:13
by this globalization instituted by01:10:16
China I wanted to put it to you in this01:10:18
multipolar environment01:10:20
where perhaps we are seeing multiple01:10:23
orders multiple orders we have an01:10:26
American world agenda with its01:10:28
logic of globalization01:10:30
and with its allies, right, and increasingly01:10:32
now, Europe is divided, Macron01:10:35
was now, right, finally in China he made an01:10:38
ill-fated speech, then he had to01:10:40
arrive in Paris and give another speech,01:10:43
Europe is divided, who are the01:10:45
traditional allies of the United States,01:10:46
people, remember the G7 Okay, so it seems that the01:10:49
United States is increasingly01:10:51
isolating itself and this will generate a response01:10:53
from the United States. On the other01:10:55
hand, you see China01:10:58
with a certain01:11:00
benign leadership, let's call it that a01:11:05
priori in the sense that it is01:11:07
offering01:11:08
massive billion-dollar investments and01:11:11
infrastructure technology transport a01:11:13
series of areas So countries are01:11:16
positioning themselves, right, and the data increasingly shows01:11:19
China's massive presence in the01:11:22
most diverse sectors in a series of01:11:24
countries, so it's something inexorable, it's something01:11:27
reversible that needs to be better01:11:29
thought out,01:11:33
I'll add two more questions here01:11:36
I would also like to take the opportunity to comment a01:11:37
little on these two so a question01:11:39
here is from Adeline Adelino he says01:11:42
this relationship cannot bring01:11:44
sanctions from the United States with Brazil01:11:47
Then we have another question here,01:11:49
let me just dig into it here because01:11:52
she's a little distant Send another one but01:11:53
they are connected in terms of01:11:56
content that's why I'm bringing01:11:58
them here in a related way01:12:02
and the question here from the01:12:10
Professor we have so many comments and01:12:13
I'm trying to create a logic here01:12:16
to01:12:17
contemplate in In a way, our01:12:19
students who are present and who01:12:21
are following us are super cool,01:12:23
we are very happy with01:12:26
your participation01:12:29
and this other question here01:12:32
the student basically tries01:12:36
to include exactly a little in this line01:12:38
of reasoning, I can't find it here later01:12:39
I'll find it and put it here on the screen01:12:41
again but he basically follows this01:12:43
line of reasoning here from Adelino that01:12:46
he says like this so this relationship01:12:47
won't be able to bring his dreams from the01:12:49
United States to Brazil01:12:51
I wanted to comment a little on this01:12:53
because it was a little about that question that01:12:56
I posed to you01:12:57
and which goes very much in that direction, we01:13:00
had something called the Iron Curtain during the Cold War01:13:01
and this was, in a01:13:05
certain way, an isolation that01:13:08
existed to try to maintain a01:13:10
bipolarity in the way the01:13:13
international system they are international,01:13:15
contemporary history, she was01:13:17
behaving. In other words, you have01:13:19
Russia, like this one of the great01:13:23
countries, some great countries that won the01:13:25
Second World War and the01:13:27
United States on the other side, so in the 20th century01:13:29
we had a century marked by this01:13:32
dispute between two systems01:13:35
And during this period, we established01:13:38
something called the Iron Curtain, which was01:13:40
this curtain to isolate a certain01:13:42
country. We are not currently experiencing01:13:45
something with this degree of01:13:48
intensity that I experienced in the01:13:51
20th century. But we don't know, right?01:13:55
how much this can evolve from now on01:13:57
Of course, there is a01:13:59
very important difference, which is the degree of01:14:00
economic interdependence between China,01:14:03
Asian countries and the rest of the01:14:04
Western economy. This is a01:14:08
fact that differentiates a lot from what existed01:14:10
between Russia, the Soviet Union and the01:14:13
rest of the countries are from the world, so01:14:16
we see China today as the economy01:14:18
that it is. It has a degree of01:14:20
interdependence and other economies,01:14:21
although the Brazilian economy depends01:14:23
a lot on exports to China and,01:14:27
finally, isolation with this01:14:30
partner would be This is01:14:32
devastating for the Brazilian economy,01:14:34
so it is very difficult to01:14:37
create an Iron Curtain scenario01:14:40
as was created in the 20th century. But this does not01:14:45
mean that there are no01:14:48
other costs involved, such as01:14:51
diplomatic courses, such as01:14:53
costs that involve how much a01:14:55
country it gets closer to the other What is the01:14:57
limit to which this can happen and in the case01:15:00
of Brazil I do01:15:02
n't mind, I tend to analyze this as01:15:06
the security dimension as this limit01:15:08
I think the security dimension01:15:10
is a dimension that if it is rupture01:15:12
between Brazil and China, it will have01:15:15
consequences for01:15:18
relations between the United States. I think01:15:19
this is a dimension that is very01:15:20
difficult for Brazil to go beyond, especially01:15:23
because this is not part of the01:15:24
Brazilian strategy, it is one of initiation. international level,01:15:26
it is exactly in that opposite direction.01:15:29
So I also don't think there is a01:15:31
risk for Brazil to break this barrier,01:15:34
which the barrier said would bring Imar closer in01:15:36
terms of security to its01:15:39
security and defense strategies with China,01:15:41
with the perfect United States, I01:15:45
even wanted to bring a data here01:15:47
that I took01:15:49
data from Fiori from 2007 but I have01:15:54
updated it just to show a little this01:15:57
issue of the security dimension, right, it01:16:00
is very important, we must always01:16:01
take into consideration the United States01:16:02
is a military power at the moment and will01:16:04
continue to be one of our next years01:16:05
we believe in the next rules in the01:16:08
military sphere, the interesting thing is that the01:16:11
loss of their Harmony, right, it means01:16:12
that come morning, North America has been01:16:14
reversing water, let's say, since the01:16:16
70s, since the end of the institutions,01:16:18
they free others, right, And from then on,01:16:20
We realize that from the classic concept01:16:22
of hegemony, which is a combination of01:16:25
the ability to establish coercion,01:16:28
right, that is, Hard Power with white power01:16:32
and soft Power, we realize that01:16:34
there was a loss of the01:16:38
United States' ability to be a leader of the world01:16:40
and Leader, we talk about offering01:16:42
systemic responses to01:16:44
global problems, including01:16:46
climate change, right, for a long time01:16:48
some republican governments, the01:16:52
United States withdrew. In fact, it didn't even ratify the01:16:54
Kyoto protocol and withdrew from01:16:57
abroad, the color of Paris serum mention01:17:00
a little bit of this dimension of01:17:02
these American responses that See Only01:17:05
the professor mentioned the cold war and01:17:07
I had to get this data here during the01:17:10
Clinton era, right, the United States was01:17:12
involved in 48 military interventions,01:17:14
it was a period, right? Anyway, currently this01:17:18
number has already surpassed the house of 7001:17:20
military interventions, so there was much01:17:23
more belligerence from the United States in the01:17:25
post-Cold War period than during the01:17:28
Cold War, so this shows how much01:17:30
we are living in an01:17:32
unstable,01:17:34
unpredictable international system, right? We don't understand who the01:17:37
enemy is and there is a narrative on the part01:17:39
of the Press of the North American Elite01:17:41
part of society01:17:45
needs some G7 European countries01:17:48
specifically to construct China01:17:53
as a threat but what has been perceived01:17:55
right And then we run into again the01:17:58
description of defense and the role that01:17:59
Brazil needs to take Be careful with the fact that01:18:02
you put it very well on the issue of Defense,01:18:03
right, considering the presence of the fourth01:18:05
North American Fleet here in01:18:07
South America, right, but on this issue that China01:18:09
is increasingly casting itself as a01:18:13
mediator of conflicts, right, trying01:18:15
to stabilize, mainly the01:18:17
Middle East, which was a stage there for01:18:19
interventions, including Onix Brasil,01:18:21
even participated in a peace mission there,01:18:23
in Lebanon, so just to mention01:18:26
some issues that deserve a01:18:28
closer look at this concern that until01:18:31
the bored professor raised about the01:18:32
dimension of security and then Brazil01:18:34
needs to work very well with its01:18:37
diplomacy we have a01:18:39
fantastic diplomatic corps and we have a01:18:41
tradition of patient01:18:43
controversial solutions, right? So we realized that01:18:45
we believe that Brazil needs to know how to01:18:48
take advantage of this trade war that is01:18:51
taking place between the United States and01:18:53
China01:18:55
very well, Professor Pous, I think01:18:56
we're getting here, right? We've01:18:58
basically reached the end here, we already have01:19:01
a series of comments, guys, I01:19:02
really appreciate your participation,01:19:05
we have more or less a period of time for01:19:06
us to establish, right, Professor, post on01:19:08
around an hour of01:19:10
Live and finally web time here with you01:19:14
it was a pleasure to be here in this space01:19:18
I hope you continue01:19:21
to follow us we will have01:19:23
a schedule and it is a01:19:24
regular schedule we will always01:19:25
try to communicate this here through01:19:27
social media Through our networks, I01:19:30
suggest that you Follow our channel, right,01:19:32
leave us a like Follow the channel01:19:34
so that you can also receive01:19:36
notifications as soon as we01:19:38
share it with our students,01:19:40
we try to do this through01:19:42
internal channels that we have, it's the01:19:43
virtual learning environment, we promote it01:19:45
there so you can follow us01:19:46
if you are not our students,01:19:48
leave it there Like the channel and01:19:52
follow us so we can keep in01:19:55
touch and whenever there is a new Live01:19:57
we will try to do this on a01:19:59
weekly, fortnightly basis, this will01:20:01
depend a little on the context, but at01:20:04
least every 15 days we are01:20:06
here so it's a pleasure to be here with01:20:08
you Follow us and thank you very much01:20:11
for your participation Professor Rafael ponns01:20:13
Thank you very much I would like to thank everyone01:20:16
for participating, for your affectionate interaction01:20:19
and leave my email if anyone01:20:22
would like to have access to the slides, talk01:20:25
about the sources, so my name is Rafael01:20:28
dot r and at uninter.com, okay, I'll01:20:31
be happy to share it with you. you01:20:33
once again Fleet, thank you for your01:20:35
patience, for everything you've done01:20:38
to make this Live something important01:20:41
for us to bring a little, you know, of01:20:43
everything we study, read every01:20:45
day, write and such for our students01:20:47
and for those who are also passionate about01:20:49
international relations and what is01:20:50
happening in relation to01:20:53
Brazil's international stance, but once again01:20:55
thank you all and have a great01:20:57
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