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Video tags
Subtitles
Russian
00:00:00
good day00:00:01
firstly in commencing this video i'm00:00:03
just going to tie up a loose end00:00:06
um with respect to the as of style mario00:00:10
paul saga00:00:12
i expect that this will be the last00:00:14
mention of as of style of the as of00:00:17
style battles00:00:18
and of mariupol in this series of videos00:00:22
so who knows there may be some reason to00:00:24
return to the topic later especially if00:00:27
the russians do00:00:29
carry out their apparent plans to put00:00:32
some of the people who they've captured00:00:34
in the as of style steel works on trial00:00:37
anyway in my last program i discussed00:00:40
the fact that to my knowledge none of00:00:43
the various reports or claims or rumors00:00:46
about uh nato generals senior western00:00:50
officials00:00:51
uh western mercenaries western uh00:00:55
foreign legion troops in the other style00:00:58
steel works have turned out to be true00:01:01
and i said that this00:01:03
provided some00:01:05
bafflement to me00:01:07
increased my bafflement00:01:09
the frenetic attempts by the ukrainian00:01:13
authorities to evacuate people from the00:01:16
as of style steel works during the siege00:01:20
even as more and more ukrainian00:01:22
helicopters and more and more ukrainian00:01:24
ships were being destroyed in the00:01:26
attempts to do so00:01:28
and that president zielenski had himself00:01:30
admitted very recently in comments that00:01:34
many helicopters and pilots had been00:01:37
lost in these attempts but he still00:01:40
still didn't provide a fully00:01:42
satisfactory explanation of what exactly00:01:46
had happened00:01:47
well uh why what exactly had happened00:01:51
and why this odd00:01:53
step of sending uh pilots and00:01:56
helicopters to certain destruction00:01:58
had been taken00:02:00
well i think we now probably have an00:02:03
answer00:02:04
it turns out that one of the people who00:02:06
have been captured00:02:08
by the russians in the as of style00:02:12
steelworks is the actual commander00:02:15
military commander of the azov regiment00:02:18
denis brocopenko now i say commander00:02:21
when i did my previous video00:02:24
i thought he might be the commander of00:02:27
the azov forces in the00:02:31
in mariupol00:02:32
rather than the overall00:02:35
military leader00:02:36
of the azov regiment00:02:38
but it seems that procopenco is indeed00:02:42
the overall leader of the azov regiment00:02:45
even wikipedia says as much and there00:02:48
are now what appeared to be00:02:50
fairly um00:02:52
reliable reports that he is one of the00:02:55
people who were captured00:02:57
now during the fighting during these00:02:59
desperate attempts by the ukrainians00:03:01
to00:03:02
remove people from the as of style00:03:04
steelworks the russians repeatedly said00:03:08
that the people that the ukrainians were00:03:10
trying to evacuate00:03:12
were the commanders00:03:14
plural00:03:15
of the as of regiment and that seems to00:03:20
me to tie in00:03:22
with the fact that procopenco was00:03:24
apparently in mariupol he was with the00:03:27
azov troops in the out of style steel00:03:30
factory and he has now been captured00:03:34
presumably together with other senior00:03:36
commanders and the staff of the regiment00:03:40
and i would add that if the overall00:03:43
numbers that have been given in open00:03:45
sources00:03:46
of the00:03:47
numbers of00:03:49
troops or personnel who make up the azov00:03:52
regiment to true if it really does00:03:54
number around 2 000 men00:03:57
then it seems that to me that it has00:03:59
been all but wiped out as an effective00:04:01
fighting force it seems most of these00:04:04
troops were committed to the defense of00:04:06
mariupol00:04:07
um00:04:08
obviously mariupol is on the sea of azov00:04:12
it was where the azov uh00:04:15
regiment00:04:16
gained its baptism of fire if one may00:04:19
call it say that at the start during the00:04:22
201400:04:24
fighting um it seems that most of its00:04:26
troops actually stayed in mariupol they00:04:29
were encircled there00:04:31
and they've now been captured most of00:04:33
them have been captured or killed00:04:35
together with their senior commanders00:04:37
and given the importance of the azov00:04:41
regiment both symbolically and i suspect00:04:44
in terms of its political connections00:04:47
with other00:04:48
senior people00:04:50
in the00:04:51
ukrainian political class00:04:53
well that i think does explain these00:04:56
rather desperate attempts to try to00:04:59
evacuate at least the leadership of this00:05:01
regiment people like procopenco to bring00:05:04
them back to kiev anyway there it is it00:05:08
seems he is now a prisoner of the00:05:10
russians it seems that the azov regiment00:05:12
as it existed no longer exists there are00:05:16
probably a00:05:18
units and00:05:19
uh00:05:20
minor units combat units of the azov00:05:23
regiment still floating around in00:05:25
various places but overall the regiment00:05:28
has ceased to exist and its commander00:05:31
has been captured00:05:33
now that as i said is the last thing i'm00:05:35
going to say00:05:36
about the azo style battles the mario00:05:40
paul battles00:05:41
elsewhere00:05:43
in donbass we continue to get more and00:05:45
more information all the time about the00:05:48
deteriorating position of the ukrainian00:05:52
forces in seville donetsk and lizzy00:05:54
chansk and in fact there's now a00:05:57
widespread rumor i think i can say at00:06:00
the moment that it is only a rumor that00:06:02
it's a plausible one that the ukrainian00:06:05
military leadership has warned president00:06:08
zielenski00:06:10
that unless the troops are withdrawn00:06:13
from several donetsk00:06:15
within the next few days00:06:17
and when i when they when they refer to00:06:20
several donetsk i'm assuming that this00:06:22
means both several donetsk and lizzie00:06:26
chansk unless these ukrainian troops are00:06:29
withdrawn from several donetsk00:06:31
and lizzy chansk within the next few00:06:34
days00:06:35
then it will become impossible00:06:38
to order their retreat they will be00:06:41
completely encircled and they they will00:06:44
face the same00:06:46
outcome as the ukrainian troops who were00:06:49
encircled in mariupol00:06:52
on00:06:53
the subject of the fighting in donbass00:06:56
zielinski himself by the way has made00:06:58
some further comments he has said that00:07:00
ukraine is losing00:07:02
between 50 and 100 men a day00:07:05
in the fighting in eastern ukraine00:07:09
now that may be an understatement that's00:07:12
what most00:07:13
russian commentators and most people who00:07:16
are looking at the fighting would00:07:18
probably say00:07:19
but it is a significantly00:07:22
higher00:07:23
estimate of the number of troops ukraine00:07:26
is losing than um zelensky has come up00:07:30
with before00:07:31
anyway00:07:32
even if it is only a hundred men a day00:07:35
that is a heavy casualty rate other00:07:38
other estimates put the numbers00:07:40
much higher in the00:07:42
multiple hundreds00:07:44
and i have to say that the films and00:07:47
videos that i've seen which of course00:07:49
are not reliable evidence they seem to00:07:52
support the view that more people are00:07:54
being killed even the zelinski is now00:07:57
admitting to00:07:58
anyway that's the military background to00:08:01
events it does look as if the situation00:08:04
of the ukrainian troops00:08:06
in seville donaire exclusive is critical00:08:09
apparently an important bridge has been00:08:12
blown up00:08:14
by the russians which makes its00:08:17
whatever00:08:18
peripheral resupply of these troops is00:08:20
still taking place it makes that all but00:08:22
impossible00:08:24
in the meantime we are also getting uh00:08:26
reports that other ukrainian troops00:08:29
in other places of the northern donbass00:08:32
have also been encircled as well and the00:08:37
the web the00:08:39
noose is tightening around all of these00:08:42
troops and this is creating obviously a00:08:45
military crisis in northern donbass00:08:49
and this00:08:50
together with the deteriorating economic00:08:53
picture00:08:54
the food supply shortages the worldwide00:08:57
food supply shortages00:08:59
the worldwide energy crisis all of this00:09:02
appears to be triggering ever deepening00:09:05
debate00:09:06
not just in ukraine but in the west00:09:09
about the direction of the war00:09:12
in my last program i discussed an00:09:15
article an opinion piece that appeared00:09:17
in the new york times00:09:19
penned by the editorial team of the new00:09:22
york times00:09:23
which appeared to say00:09:26
in very thinly disguised form that00:09:29
ukraine should sit down negotiate with00:09:32
the russians00:09:34
reach a peace agreement with russia00:09:37
acknowledge that there's a limit to the00:09:38
amount of help that the western powers00:09:41
are able to provide00:09:43
um and00:09:45
accept00:09:46
that it that ukraine might have to make00:09:49
certain significant territorial00:09:51
concessions00:09:53
and it looking increasingly as if italy00:09:56
has very much come around the same view00:09:59
and it seems that president macron of00:10:01
france may be thinking along similar00:10:03
lines the german government remains00:10:07
bitterly divided between his green00:10:09
factions which are very much in the00:10:11
ascendant and we still want the war to00:10:14
continue until some sort of ukrainian00:10:16
victory is achieved and00:10:20
perhaps the social democratic wing of00:10:23
the government headed by chancellor olaf00:10:26
schultz which is clearly beginning to00:10:28
have increasing concerns and doubts00:10:30
about the whole direction that this00:10:32
affair is taking but anyway we see that00:10:36
there's been more discussions about all00:10:38
of this in the west and about what00:10:39
ukraine should do00:10:41
well00:10:42
we have now had00:10:44
responses in ukraine itself first of all00:10:48
we had a response from president00:10:50
zielenski now president zielenski once00:10:52
again said as he has often said in the00:10:55
past that the war has to end with a00:10:57
diplomatic solution he didn't say what00:11:00
that was00:11:01
but the very fact that he's talking00:11:03
about a diplomatic solution at all00:11:05
might suggest that he is heeding the00:11:08
advice of people like the writers of the00:11:12
new york times article00:11:14
and this00:11:16
has come from him and of course it's00:11:18
also come in connection with his00:11:20
admission if it is an admission00:11:23
that as many as a hundred ukrainian00:11:25
soldiers are dying in eastern ukraine00:11:28
every day00:11:30
even though as i said most people who've00:11:32
been following this closely this00:11:34
conflict closely think that the true00:11:36
casualty rate is much higher anyway00:11:39
that's00:11:40
president zielenski00:11:42
other ukrainian officials have come out00:11:45
indignantly00:11:47
and have said that this is out of the00:11:48
question so uh the chief of staff of00:11:53
zolensky's own presidential office has00:11:56
said that ukraine is not willing to make00:11:57
any territorial concessions whatsoever00:12:00
that it wants to have complete control00:12:03
recapture complete control of all the00:12:06
territory it had when it declared00:12:08
independence in 1991 which would of00:12:11
course include crimea as well as donbass00:12:14
and of course houston province and all00:12:16
those other regions which are currently00:12:19
occupied with the by the russians and um00:12:22
the intelligence chief ukraine's uh00:12:24
senior intelligence chief has said the00:12:27
same thing and he again floated the00:12:30
possibility of ukraine launching this00:12:32
great counter-offensive in late august00:12:35
which would drive out the russians and00:12:37
recapture all of this territory00:12:39
and these hardliners in kiev00:12:44
went on to say00:12:45
that as far as they're concerned there's00:12:47
no question of a ceasefire until the00:12:51
russians have either withdrawn00:12:54
or been thrown back00:12:56
out of the entire territory of ukraine00:13:00
as it was in 1991.00:13:03
now this could be00:13:04
signs that there's been some enormous00:13:07
argument going on in within kiev who00:13:10
knows00:13:11
but if there is such an argument it00:13:13
seems to me that whoever is supporting00:13:16
the compromise is probably at the moment00:13:20
very very much isolated00:13:22
moreover i get the impression that the00:13:24
hardliners are not just in the ascendant00:13:27
in kiev they remain very much in the00:13:30
ascendant in washington and london it00:13:34
seems that president biden himself00:13:37
continues to be00:13:38
utterly committed to this to the00:13:42
prolongation of this war in ukraine00:13:45
even though there is increasing doubt00:13:47
and skepticism apparently within the u.s00:13:51
political establishment as reflected in00:13:54
that new york times editorial and i'm00:13:57
increasingly sensing00:14:00
within the us military leadership as00:14:02
well the pentagon i suspect is becoming00:14:05
increasingly concerned at the enormous00:14:08
over-investment of u.s resources in00:14:11
ukraine00:14:13
at the way this is starting to drain u.s00:14:16
military stocks i'm going to come to00:14:18
that in a moment00:14:19
and also00:14:21
at the way in which the u.s has been00:14:23
drawn into a conflict in ukraine of00:14:26
peripheral importance where there is no00:14:29
solid support for this commitment00:14:32
amongst the wider u.s population00:14:35
and which could prove extremely00:14:37
embarrassing for the us00:14:40
if in the end00:14:42
as seems00:14:43
likely i would say inevitable russia00:14:47
eventually prevails00:14:49
and let me again repeat a point which00:14:52
i've made before00:14:53
if this war is prolonged if this war00:14:56
goes on until the end of the year if as00:14:59
a result of that war ukraine loses more00:15:01
and more territory if00:15:03
ukraine in fact collapses completely and00:15:07
the russians score00:15:09
an unequivocal win00:15:12
it is going to be very difficult for the00:15:15
united states in europe00:15:17
many people00:15:19
assume and i myself was one of them at00:15:22
the beginning of this conflict that the00:15:24
united states had come out a winner from00:15:27
this war that it had choked off00:15:30
sentiment in europe that wanted some00:15:33
kind of rapprochement with russia that00:15:36
he had set europe off against russia00:15:39
that it hardened support for nato within00:15:42
europe00:15:43
and of course we've seen the moves to00:15:46
expand nato into scandinavia00:15:50
that00:15:51
i think was true00:15:53
up to the situation in say mid-march00:15:57
but of course if the situation now00:16:00
ends00:16:01
in a clear-cut military defeat for00:16:04
ukraine a clear-cut russian military00:16:07
victory00:16:08
and if russia the russians gain their00:16:10
overall political objectives in ukraine00:16:14
that then that will mean00:16:16
that the us will have taken on russia in00:16:19
a military and economic conflict00:16:23
in europe00:16:25
and will have lost00:16:27
now already00:16:29
the economic war of attrition as i have00:16:31
said has backfired spectacularly00:16:35
once again this morning the ruble is00:16:37
trading at 58 rubles to the dollar and00:16:40
there are reports media reports which by00:16:43
the way have been denied in moscow by00:16:45
the russian authorities that the russian00:16:48
central bank is now intervening directly00:16:51
in foreign foreign currency markets00:16:54
buying foreign currency in order to00:16:57
prevent the ruble appreciating even00:17:00
further or too quickly now the russian00:17:03
central bank has denied this00:17:05
but it may very well be true the reason00:17:08
it is probably denying this is that of00:17:11
course if the russian central bank00:17:14
is indeed00:17:15
buying00:17:17
is indeed selling rubles00:17:19
in order to buy foreign currency which00:17:21
would would by the way would be a way of00:17:23
replenishing its own foreign currency00:17:26
reserves which of course have been00:17:27
depleted after the asset seizures by the00:17:31
united states and its allies in february00:17:34
if00:17:36
the central bank is doing that00:17:38
then it is buying that foreign currency00:17:41
from someone00:17:44
who is that someone well it might be00:17:47
russian traders00:17:48
but one way or the other00:17:51
it would be most probably00:17:54
an act00:17:55
which would be seen in the united states00:17:58
and perhaps in europe00:18:00
as a sign00:18:02
that the sanctions against the russian00:18:05
central bank00:18:07
are not working00:18:09
and are being breached by someone00:18:12
and that might trigger an investigation00:18:15
and that might put some people00:18:18
who the russian central bank00:18:21
is buying00:18:22
this foreign currency from00:18:25
in some japanese00:18:26
so the russian central bank would be00:18:29
likely to deny00:18:31
reports00:18:32
that it was buying foreign currency00:18:35
um if only to protect00:18:39
the people00:18:40
the the sellers00:18:42
commits buying that foreign currency00:18:45
from00:18:46
from further western sanctions so i just00:18:49
make that point00:18:51
regardless of whether or not the russian00:18:53
central bank is indeed my foreign00:18:56
currency on the foreign exchange markets00:18:59
to slow00:19:01
or stop the appreciation of the ruble00:19:04
it's absolutely clear00:19:06
that the ruble is not collapsing at the00:19:09
moment it is strengthening and that the00:19:12
expectation that the united states had00:19:15
that the u.s government that the biden00:19:17
administration had back in february that00:19:19
the ruble would collapse once the00:19:21
sanctions on the central bank was00:19:23
imposed that that those assumptions have00:19:27
turned out to be completely and entirely00:19:30
wrong anyway that's one thing00:19:32
so that hasn't worked out00:19:35
nor has there been a hyperinflation00:19:37
crisis00:19:38
in russia we've now had as i said in my00:19:41
previous videos more economic data from00:19:43
russia it seems that um00:19:46
despite the decline in interest rates00:19:49
inflation is now falling fast in russia00:19:52
the rise in prices in russia in april00:19:56
was around one and a half percent00:19:58
slightly more than the usual00:20:00
level obviously but a significant00:20:03
decline from the crisis levels in early00:20:07
march00:20:08
and00:20:10
the senses as i discussed before that00:20:12
russia might in fact be00:20:15
on the cusp of an actual period of a00:20:18
decline in some prices now00:20:21
i'm going to quickly say00:20:24
that i've seen reports from an american00:20:26
journalist in moscow i'm not going to00:20:28
say who he is because i don't want to00:20:30
embarrass anybody but he's been00:20:33
providing photos of russian supermarkets00:20:37
which are massively stocked fully00:20:39
stocked with goods00:20:42
with food with foodstuffs00:20:45
this has provoked an angry reaction in00:20:48
some quarters people want to insist that00:20:50
food shortages are spreading across00:20:53
russia00:20:54
the actual realities on the ground from00:20:57
everything that i'm hearing00:20:59
tell the exact country00:21:01
food stocks are actually00:21:04
growing00:21:05
but it's more than that00:21:07
because we're now starting to get a um00:21:10
indications that the00:21:11
industrial decline00:21:14
that many expected in russia is turning00:21:16
out to be less severe than many people00:21:19
had anticipated00:21:21
and we've had comments from00:21:24
um00:21:25
um the department head00:21:28
of the uh um central russian central00:21:31
bank's monetary policy department kiril00:21:35
three massive on friday00:21:38
and he's talked about the conditions in00:21:40
the real economy and he said we00:21:42
conducted his survey throughout april in00:21:44
may and we see that the situation is00:21:47
getting slightly better with each survey00:21:50
we ask companies about various00:21:52
problematic aspects including rates what00:21:55
problems they come up across on demand00:21:58
on employment issues and so on and we00:22:01
see that starting april the balance of00:22:04
responses on all those items has been00:22:06
gradually improving which means the00:22:09
russian economy has started to changing00:22:12
conditions00:22:13
started adjusting to changing conditions00:22:16
fairly fast so far00:22:19
despite the tectonic shifts underway in00:22:22
our economy the goals and principles of00:22:25
monetary policy remain unchanged price00:22:28
stability remains a priority00:22:31
the targeted level of inflation00:22:34
continues to be00:22:35
four percent00:22:37
and the impression that00:22:40
this gentleman has given00:22:42
is that we are starting as i said you00:22:44
see the first signs of a stabilization00:22:47
in the real economy with a probable rise00:22:51
in or recovering industrial production00:22:54
fairly soon and it continued falling00:22:57
inflation back to its four percent it's00:23:00
the central bank's four percent target00:23:03
so00:23:04
the economic war of attrition isn't00:23:06
working00:23:08
and of course a europe00:23:11
in00:23:12
facing00:23:13
deep recession00:23:16
with growing alarm in britain00:23:18
in germany right across europe as to00:23:21
what is happening00:23:23
in the economy00:23:25
similar concerns by the way in the00:23:27
united states but perhaps especially in00:23:29
europe people in europe are going to be00:23:32
asking questions00:23:34
if europe is in economic crisis00:23:36
and russia on the country is recovering00:23:40
or even prospering so that would be a00:23:43
major psychological blow00:23:46
for the united states00:23:48
but of course it would be overshadowed00:23:52
by00:23:53
the effect of a military defeat in00:23:56
ukraine00:23:57
because the united states would have00:23:59
been seen throwing every conceivable00:24:02
weapon system every conceivable uh00:24:06
weapon system and training system to00:24:08
support ukraine00:24:10
but unable in the end to save ukraine00:24:13
from defeat00:24:15
now if this goes through00:24:17
fully to its conclusion00:24:20
then00:24:21
we could be seeing a situation where00:24:23
ukraine is military militarily defeated00:24:27
where there is a pro russian government00:24:29
in kiev where ukraine itself might be00:24:32
in existential crisis00:24:34
where the russians are in control of00:24:37
large areas of ukraine00:24:39
where russia itself is seeing its00:24:41
economy00:24:42
recover and grow00:24:44
and where the european economy is in00:24:47
deep crisis reflecting also perhaps a00:24:50
crisis in the united states00:24:52
and i have to say in that kind of00:24:55
situation00:24:56
there is likely to be a shift of mood in00:24:59
europe many people in europe will say00:25:01
that the ukraine00:25:03
us00:25:04
not only led europe up the garden path00:25:08
in seeking this strong reaction to the00:25:11
russian00:25:13
attack on ukraine00:25:15
but00:25:16
that when00:25:17
push came to shove00:25:19
the us was unable to prevail against00:25:22
russia it was unable to prevail against00:25:25
russia economically it was unable to00:25:28
prevail in the proxy war it is fighting00:25:31
against russia in ukraine00:25:33
militarily00:25:35
and inevitably00:25:37
that is going to make many people in00:25:39
europe wonder00:25:41
how strong00:25:43
u.s guarantees00:25:45
actually are00:25:47
whether in fact the us really is in a00:25:50
position to take on the russians00:25:52
militarily and of course00:25:55
if it is incapable of prevailing against00:25:58
russia00:26:00
economically00:26:01
then of course the sanctions weapon00:26:04
will have been thrown away00:26:06
and it's not difficult to see00:26:09
how this could create a crisis00:26:12
of credibility for the us00:26:15
in europe it's not as if there aren't00:26:18
critics of the us in every european00:26:22
country there are more of them in some00:26:24
than in others there's many of them in00:26:26
france for example there's00:26:29
a certain number of them in italy00:26:31
there's fewer of them in germany though00:26:34
though they're pretty well organized00:26:36
there there's fewer still obviously in00:26:38
britain00:26:39
but they are00:26:41
critics00:26:42
of the us critics of nato critics of the00:26:45
eu also by the way present in every00:26:49
european country00:26:50
if this ends in failure then those00:26:53
critics will be emboldened and00:26:55
strengthened and on the contrary it will00:26:58
be supporters of the us00:27:00
supporters of nato supporters of the eu00:27:03
leadership who will be dismayed and00:27:06
depressed00:27:07
and demoralized00:27:09
that will be the exact opposite of the00:27:12
situation that we appear to be looking00:27:15
at at the start of this crisis in00:27:18
february and early march00:27:21
and00:27:22
it00:27:23
must be the case00:27:25
that there are people in washington who00:27:28
are starting to see that and who are00:27:30
starting to become concerned and who are00:27:33
trying to get the administration to00:27:36
change course and who are advising the00:27:38
biden white house that this is ending00:27:41
that this is the the risks are growing00:27:45
not in my opinion risks of world war 300:27:48
or of nuclear war00:27:50
but of a serious strategic defeat00:27:54
now00:27:56
at the moment00:27:57
i don't think that these voices are00:28:00
being heeded00:28:01
president biden himself00:28:03
remains as far as i can see not just00:28:06
personally committed to ukraine00:28:09
he is obsessed by ukraine00:28:11
and he continues to want to shovel arms00:28:14
more and more arms to ukraine in the00:28:16
hope that this will somehow turn the00:28:19
tide there00:28:20
and um so i don't think there's any00:28:23
prospect of him changing his mind00:28:26
anytime soon and to be straightforward00:28:28
about it i don't think he's going to00:28:30
change his mind unless he's forced to00:28:33
and i think that is probably true of the00:28:36
various neocons who are so heavily00:28:39
entrenched in the state department and00:28:42
who are also very prominent in other00:28:44
parts of the u.s permanent state for00:28:47
example in the intelligence and security00:28:49
agencies00:28:51
but in the pentagon where these people00:28:53
it seems to me a weaker i suspect the00:28:56
criticism is growing i suspect it's00:28:59
growing also in the economic departments00:29:02
i suspect it's even growing00:29:05
on the fringes00:29:07
of the us's think tank community00:29:10
after all the us could lose in00:29:13
afghanistan and it did not affect00:29:17
us's global power it could even lose in00:29:19
vietnam00:29:21
and it did not affect the us's global00:29:24
power but a clear-cut defeat for the us00:29:28
in a war in europe00:29:31
is a completely different matter00:29:33
so that probably explains some of the00:29:37
reasons for concern00:29:38
and dissent that we are now seeing00:29:41
though at the moment there is massive00:29:43
pushback against them and by the way00:29:47
as somebody who has to read the british00:29:49
media every morning i've seen some00:29:51
extraordinary articles including a00:29:54
ferocious article in the daily telegraph00:29:58
um00:30:00
criticizing00:30:02
strongly00:30:03
even if only by implication00:30:06
the article that has appeared in the new00:30:07
york times00:30:09
anyway that's where we are00:30:11
on the diplomatic front i have as i've00:30:14
said previously had a00:30:17
further opportunity now to look at00:30:20
this 40 billion dollar00:30:23
aid package for ukraine00:30:26
and00:30:28
what i suspected00:30:30
is00:30:31
if right from the beginning00:30:33
is looking to be00:30:35
increasingly true i think a lot of00:30:37
people assume that this 40 billion00:30:40
dollar package00:30:42
was aid for ukraine and i think many00:30:45
people assume that this 40 billion00:30:48
dollar aid package is 40 billion dollars00:30:53
of weapons for ukraine and there's been00:30:56
some people who've been pointing out00:30:58
that the total amount of aid for ukraine00:31:01
military aid for ukraine which now comes00:31:03
to 53 billion dollars they've been00:31:06
comparing it to russia's00:31:07
annual military budget which is around00:31:10
65 billion dollars they've been00:31:13
rubbing their hands and they've been00:31:14
suggesting that this means that before00:31:16
very long the russians will be00:31:18
overwhelmed by a flood of american00:31:21
weapons to ukraine00:31:23
well as far as i can make out00:31:26
the actual amount of military00:31:29
hardware and training00:31:33
that is committed00:31:35
in this package out of this 40 billion00:31:38
dollars00:31:39
is actually six billion dollars six00:31:41
billion dollars not just of weapons00:31:44
but also of training of ukrainian troops00:31:46
and things of this kind00:31:48
most of the rest is in economic aid um00:31:51
all kinds of other things00:31:54
that are connected in various ways to00:31:57
the war in ukraine but which are not00:32:00
direct military aid to ukraine now i may00:32:04
be reading this00:32:06
wrong00:32:07
but that's00:32:09
how it seems to me00:32:10
and that by the way is very consistent00:32:13
with what i00:32:15
remember00:32:16
from the previous u.s commitments to00:32:19
countries like afghanistan iraq and00:32:22
south vietnam00:32:24
the united states comes up with these00:32:26
enormous00:32:27
aid packages00:32:29
when you unpack them they always turn00:32:31
out to be much less impressive00:32:33
in detail than the global numbers00:32:37
might imply00:32:38
and that in fact the actual number of00:32:41
weapon systems that have been sent to00:32:43
ukraine turn out to be far less than00:32:46
many people anticipated00:32:48
so far it remains the case that the00:32:51
united states is unable00:32:54
to replace the weapon systems ukraine is00:32:57
losing00:32:58
um at00:32:59
a sufficiently fast level00:33:02
even to keep ukraine00:33:05
fully equipped as it was at the start of00:33:08
the war in other words ukraine is losing00:33:10
more weapon systems00:33:13
than the united states is supplying to00:33:16
it and of course we've now had00:33:19
the first00:33:20
debacle00:33:21
with the m300:33:23
3 double you know the m77700:33:26
the m triple 7 or some people call it00:33:29
howitzers it seems that most of them00:33:32
have already been destroyed in action00:33:35
and it seems that a large stock of00:33:38
western equipment including american00:33:40
equipment was also destroyed by the00:33:43
russians in an arms supply center in00:33:47
jeetermia i would say that it is going00:33:50
to be very problematic00:33:53
for the us00:33:55
to re-equip00:33:56
and rearm00:33:58
ukraine's army whilst the russians are00:34:01
able to launch missile strikes and00:34:03
airstrikes across the entire territory00:34:06
of ukraine the weapons may arrive in00:34:09
ukraine they may be transported around00:34:12
ukraine to a certain degree00:34:14
but the russians are able to keep track00:34:16
of them and eventually they have to be00:34:19
kept in one place because you have to do00:34:22
that with weapons you can't just00:34:25
scatter them across00:34:27
the whole country because then of course00:34:29
they lose their utility so they've been00:34:34
they have to be concentrated in some00:34:35
place00:34:36
there was in odessa in yeah00:34:40
in jeetumer and then of course they00:34:42
become a target for the russian missile00:34:46
strikes so i think it is going to be00:34:48
impossible however many weapon systems00:34:50
the us funnels into ukraine00:34:53
to keep up with ukrainian losses00:34:57
and already00:34:59
we're hearing comments from people like00:35:00
joseph morrell00:35:02
the eu's high representative for foreign00:35:05
policy he's complaining that00:35:08
eu european weapons stocks are now00:35:11
becoming dangerously depleted through00:35:14
the supply efforts to ukraine00:35:16
and i suspect the pentagon is getting00:35:18
concerned is beginning to worry00:35:21
about the same things that this is far00:35:23
from rebuilding the ukrainian army is00:35:26
some fear what's actually happening is00:35:30
that the us00:35:31
is sending arms shipments00:35:34
into what is in effect a black hole00:35:37
where they just get destroyed00:35:40
almost as quickly as they arrive00:35:43
leaving the us's own stocks of weapons00:35:45
of certain critical weapons depleted and00:35:49
therefore having to expend00:35:51
vast amounts of money to replenish those00:35:54
stocks and by the way my impression00:35:58
again is that a large part of this 4000:36:01
billion dollar00:36:03
aid package00:36:04
is not really intended for ukraine at00:36:07
all it's essentially earmarked for the00:36:10
us defense industry to try to00:36:14
replace00:36:16
weapon systems that have already been00:36:18
shipped to ukraine in other words to00:36:21
keep the us military itself00:36:24
in stock00:36:26
even as the cost00:36:28
continues to grow00:36:30
so it's not surprising that people in00:36:34
the pentagon if they're doing the00:36:36
figures if they're doing the maths if00:36:38
they're looking at this thing properly00:36:40
are starting to become concerned that00:36:42
this war might not be00:36:44
going00:36:45
according to whatever plan the president00:36:48
president biden and his advisers his00:36:52
neocon advisors00:36:53
came up with00:36:55
well as i said for the moment it still00:36:58
seems to me as if the hardliners00:37:00
are very much in the ascendant00:37:03
what has to happen00:37:05
is that we have to start to see people00:37:09
outside00:37:10
the00:37:11
what you might call dissident community00:37:14
in the united states starting to come00:37:17
forward and to call for a diplomatic00:37:21
solution when we start to see00:37:24
prominent people within the00:37:28
uh mcconnell wing of the republican00:37:30
party00:37:31
or00:37:32
even more importantly00:37:34
the00:37:36
democratic party when people like that00:37:39
start to peel away00:37:41
and start to say that this has gone as00:37:43
far as it can00:37:45
that's00:37:46
when00:37:47
things will start to shift00:37:49
and we could start to see00:37:51
a real change of course00:37:53
now by the way that is what happened in00:37:55
the 1960s over vietnam00:37:58
many people believe00:38:00
still00:38:01
that what turned uh american changed00:38:05
american policy over vietnam was vast00:38:08
numbers of anti-war protesters coming00:38:10
out and protesting across the united00:38:13
states00:38:14
in fact00:38:16
the political elite in the united states00:38:21
began to turn against the war00:38:24
sometime before that happened00:38:27
there were growing doubts in washington00:38:30
in the late 60s00:38:32
that the united states was over00:38:34
investing in vietnam00:38:36
and was becoming diverted into a war00:38:39
which had no satisfactory outcome and00:38:42
was risking a debacle00:38:45
and there was growing criticism00:38:47
in congress00:38:48
and within the pentagon00:38:50
and within some of the more prominent00:38:53
figures00:38:54
within the democratic party who began to00:38:58
talk out against the wall now much of00:39:01
that initially was in private it took a00:39:04
while before it appeared public but of00:39:07
course eventually it did00:39:10
and it was these people perhaps more00:39:13
than the anti-war protesters00:39:15
who were the reason why00:39:17
eventually00:39:18
president johnson lyndon johnson in the00:39:21
1960s decided that he had to sit down00:39:25
with the north vietnamese in paris and00:39:27
start peace talks with them00:39:29
so elite opinion began to turn against00:39:32
the war in the united states we are00:39:35
perhaps seeing the firsts in the 1960s00:39:38
we're perhaps seeing the first glimmers00:39:42
of something like that starting to00:39:44
happen00:39:45
in the united states with the ukraine00:39:47
war today00:39:49
well we've still got a long way to go00:39:52
from this but i will i will00:39:54
warm this00:39:55
make this further point00:39:58
vietnam was of course00:40:00
relative to the united states a very00:40:03
poor rather small country it was not00:40:07
remotely comparable00:40:10
to the us in terms of its00:40:12
overall power00:40:14
it could draw00:40:16
on a certain amount of support from00:40:17
china00:40:18
and the soviet union and that was enough00:40:21
to keep it fighting00:40:23
but ultimately00:40:26
it could not inflict a defeat on the00:40:29
united states a military defeat on the00:40:31
united states00:40:32
and of course00:40:33
the region where the north vietnam war00:40:36
was fought southeast asia was not00:40:38
ultimately00:40:40
essential00:40:42
to the united states00:40:46
this conflict is different00:40:48
russia is a vastly more powerful country00:40:51
than north vietnam00:40:53
it's a00:40:54
nuclear superpower it's just tested the00:40:57
sarmat missile it's also a major00:41:00
economic player in the global economy as00:41:04
has now become clear whereas00:41:06
north vietnam to say it00:41:08
straightforwardly was not00:41:10
and of course00:41:12
this conflict is in europe it is not any00:41:15
peripheral region00:41:17
like00:41:18
southeast asia00:41:20
and of course europe is central to u.s00:41:23
power00:41:25
those voices00:41:27
of concern00:41:29
in the united states00:41:31
those people who perhaps00:41:33
are starting deep down to get worried00:41:36
but perhaps are not yet ready to speak00:41:39
out00:41:40
those people00:41:42
need to realize00:41:43
that there isn't that much time00:41:46
in the vietnam war well00:41:49
there was00:41:50
maneuver time there was space the united00:41:53
states could maintain the military00:41:55
situation00:41:57
it could go on fighting it might be very00:41:59
embarrassing it might create protesters00:42:02
coming out00:42:03
but the fact that that the war was00:42:04
prolonged00:42:06
wasn't00:42:07
doing00:42:08
fatal damage00:42:09
to the united states in terms of its its00:42:13
prestige its credibility its milit00:42:16
overall military position or even00:42:19
its economy00:42:22
with ukraine it is different00:42:25
first of all there may not be so much00:42:27
time especially if my analysis of what's00:42:30
happening with these armed supplies is00:42:33
correct the situation the military00:42:35
situation in donbass on the country00:42:38
suggests that the military situation00:42:40
there is going already badly wrong and00:42:43
it may be that ukraine has only months00:42:46
rather than years00:42:48
before things reach00:42:51
a critical point so there may not be00:42:53
that much time on the military side00:42:55
there may not be that much time on the00:42:57
economic side00:42:59
and of course if everything goes wrong00:43:03
together00:43:04
then00:43:06
europe as i said is far more important00:43:09
to the united states and to its global00:43:12
position than southeast asia ever was00:43:15
so unless00:43:17
these people who have these doubts are00:43:20
prepared to escalate to the most00:43:22
dangerous levels00:43:24
to threaten nuclear war or something of00:43:27
that nature to start talking about00:43:30
seriously talking about sending troops00:43:33
into ukraine to take on the russians a00:43:35
disastrous idea by the way00:43:38
then the moment for them to speak out00:43:41
is now00:43:42
despite whatever political risks they00:43:46
may be incurring00:43:48
they need to start speaking out now and00:43:50
publicly00:43:52
if the kind of debacle that i've00:43:55
outlined is to be avoided00:43:57
will they do so00:43:59
will they screw up the courage to that00:44:01
point that remains to be seen00:44:04
but that it seems to me is the position00:44:06
we are in it doesn't help as i said that00:44:09
we have a president who appears to be00:44:12
utterly obsessed by this war to the00:44:15
point of00:44:16
showing little interest in any other00:44:19
issue00:44:20
um let us hope that there are people00:44:23
in the political elite in washington00:44:26
who understand the danger00:44:29
and the gravity and that they will find00:44:31
the courage to act now00:44:34
and not leave it until it is too late00:44:36
well that's enough for me today more00:44:39
from me soon on uh this channel and of00:44:42
course on the duran00:44:44
um remember you can find us on other00:44:45
platforms like rumble and locals you can00:44:49
also support us for our patreon and00:44:52
subscribe star also don't forget to00:44:55
check out our shop and the great things00:44:58
that you will find there00:45:00
and last but not least00:45:02
please remember to tick the like button00:45:04
if you like this video and to check your00:45:06
subscription to this channel thank you00:45:09
for joining me again today i look00:45:11
forward to you joining me again soon and00:45:14
have a very good day00:45:16
[Music]00:45:35
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Military Crisis in Donbass, Ukraine Admits Heavy Losses, Arguments about Resuming Peace Talks in Washington, Kiev News Topic 504 *****LOCALS COMMUNITY***** https://theduran.locals.com/ 1 MONTH FREE TRIAL: https://theduran.locals.com/support/promo/DURANLOCALS *****THE DURAN SHOP***** https://theduranshop.com/ 10% OFF COUPON. Use code at checkout: REALNEWS *****OUR OFFICIAL CHANNELS***** ALEXANDER: https://www.youtube.com/AlexanderMercourisReal ALEX: https://www.youtube.com/alexchristoforou *****CRYPTO SUPPORT***** BITCOIN: 3JvdnoyWMb93hSRgk58ZstUxg11PW9mKSr ETHEREUM: 0xF39BdFb41f639B82E3D2Bf022828bC6394F533A3 LTC: MGFiMC18ZViF6DcCixMqAAP11TG4tF6Acj ADA: addr1v94ayqu53uklgqnn6c4x4weu8zk4uw78km8capd5rjdc06q28j370 HEX: 0xD449694348B1D618ECa2829Bbc901782F5172689 EMC2: EXX4KK9pZLx7uiLWnCXtp7iMKjtq6o5b6R *****DONATE***** CREDIT CARD: https://donorbox.org/the-duran SUBSCRIBE STAR: https://www.subscribestar.com/theduran PATREON: https://www.patreon.com/theduran *****VIDEO PLATFORMS***** SUPER U: https://superu.net/channel/055dc88f-aec7-475a-a7ad-1ad271b0282d/ RUMBLE THE DURAN: https://rumble.com/c/theduran ODYSEE: THE DURAN: https://odysee.com/@theduran ALEXANDER: https://odysee.com/@AlexanderMercouris:a ALEX: https://odysee.com/@alexchristoforou:7 BITCHUTE: THE DURAN: https://www.bitchute.com/theduran/ ALEXANDER: https://www.bitchute.com/alexandermercouris/ ALEX: https://www.bitchute.com/channel/izwNAdmMGIC7/ *****AUDIO PODCASTS***** SPOTIFY: https://open.spotify.com/show/5DgkWsC3YjoyGBV03CFWnk iTunes: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-duran-podcast/id1442883993 Soundcloud: https://soundcloud.com/user-901836666 *****FREE SPEECH PLATFORMS***** TELEGRAM: https://t.me/thedurancom GAB: https://gab.ai/?r=1 MINDS: https://www.minds.com/theduran PARLER: https://parler.com/profile/theduran/posts MEWE: https://mewe.com/i/theduran VK: https://vk.com/thedurancom OK: https://ok.ru/group/60904083488959 DISCORD SERVER: https://discord.com/invite/7qFhcjHaeF Amazing music contribution from Peter Brown. Follow Peter's music: https://soundcloud.com/peterboy100
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The most convenient way is to use the UDL Client program, which supports converting video to MP3 format. In some cases, MP3 can also be downloaded through the UDL Helper extension.
How can I save a frame from a video "Military Crisis Donbass, Ukraine Admits Heavy Losses, Arguments about Resuming Peace Talks in DC"?
This feature is available in the UDL Helper extension. Make sure that "Show the video snapshot button" is checked in the settings. A camera icon should appear in the lower right corner of the player to the left of the "Settings" icon. When you click on it, the current frame from the video will be saved to your computer in JPEG format.
What's the price of all this stuff?
It costs nothing. Our services are absolutely free for all users. There are no PRO subscriptions, no restrictions on the number or maximum length of downloaded videos.