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Video tags
Subtitles
Russian
00:00:00
good day today 25th00:00:03
November may just possibly come to be00:00:06
seen as an important day in the Ukraine00:00:10
war because it does seem that over the00:00:13
last 24 36 hours all kinds of things00:00:17
have been happening all at the same time00:00:21
all of which cumulatively point00:00:24
to a decisive Point perhaps being00:00:28
reached first of all there's been a00:00:32
report in Bill ziton a German tabloid00:00:37
newspaper about the United States and00:00:40
Germany having come together and decided00:00:44
to put pressure on Ukraine to by to00:00:49
begin negotiations with Russia by00:00:52
limiting the supply of weapons to00:00:56
Ukraine the idea is that the Western00:00:59
powers will continue to supply Ukraine00:01:02
with just enough weapons to hold the00:01:05
front00:01:06
lines but not enough for Ukraine to00:01:10
engage in any further00:01:14
offensives and at the same time the00:01:19
Western Powers the Germans and the00:01:22
Americans are supposedly or allegedly00:01:26
putting pressure on the00:01:28
ukrainians to begin negotiations in00:01:31
order to end the00:01:33
war now the interesting fact about this00:01:36
article is that it has not been00:01:40
directly contradicted or refuted at00:01:44
least not as of the time of making of00:01:47
this00:01:48
program by either the us or German00:01:53
governments and that is interesting and00:01:57
it's also perhaps worth saying that bill00:01:59
ziton so a00:02:01
tabloid has historically especially as I00:02:05
remember during the time when Angela00:02:08
Merkel was German Chancellor but anyway00:02:11
Bill siton does historically have access00:02:16
to good sources within the German00:02:19
government and German political00:02:22
leadership and is sometimes used as a00:02:26
vehicle to communicate information from00:02:30
the German government and this00:02:33
particular report claims to be sourced00:02:37
from German00:02:38
officials now nothing in this conflict00:02:42
is ever straightforward and I think that00:02:45
there's a few points that need to be00:02:47
made straight away the way the article00:02:50
is drafted one would think that there is00:02:53
in here between Germany and the United00:02:56
States some kind of plot00:03:00
if you like to force the ukrainians into00:03:05
negotiations by denying them00:03:09
weapons the reality is that the United00:03:13
States and Germany are very short of the00:03:17
weapons that Ukraine needs to conduct00:03:21
the war now I'm getting lots of reports00:03:24
from lots of different sources I'm not00:03:27
going00:03:28
to discuss these sources will disclose00:03:31
them but some of them are very high00:03:35
level one in particular about the fact00:03:38
that NATO00:03:40
warehouses in00:03:42
Europe in many places in several00:03:46
countries have now been stripped of some00:03:49
of their most vital weapon00:03:52
stocks and it is the case that if you00:03:56
look at weapons00:03:58
deliveries in Europe at00:04:01
least Britain and France seem to have00:04:04
all but stopped supplying weapons to00:04:07
Ukraine and the same from what I can00:04:09
tell is true of Italy as well and this00:04:14
is consistent with reductions in weapon00:04:18
systems00:04:20
Slovakia has said has said definitely00:04:24
that it will stop supplying further00:04:27
weapons to Ukraine some East European00:04:31
countries are reported to be00:04:33
converting old Soviet era t72 tanks00:04:39
these are tanks taken out of warehouses00:04:43
often not in particularly good condition00:04:45
apparently refurbishing them installing00:04:49
new agents A engines and Optical00:04:52
equipment and Fire Control computers and00:04:56
sending them to the battle lines but00:04:58
again it's difficult to know the exact00:05:02
quantities and my own sense is that the00:05:06
stockpile of00:05:08
t-72s in Europe has become now very00:05:13
rundown there was a report that I saw00:05:16
yesterday that the leopard one tanks00:05:19
that Germany has been00:05:21
supplying are now starting to appear00:05:25
close to the00:05:26
battlefronts in the area near the town00:05:30
of Leeman in northern donet region now00:05:36
I've discussed many times that the00:05:38
leopard one is a tank which might have00:05:43
been effective in its00:05:47
day but which was designed in the00:05:51
1950s and which seems to have been00:05:55
overtaken by defense Technologies and00:05:59
and War conditions since then its armor00:06:03
is relatively thin its gun 105 mm uh00:06:10
rifled gun is relatively00:06:14
light it is not comparable to the modern00:06:19
Russian tanks that are now starting to00:06:21
proliferate on the00:06:24
battlefields and one would feel that the00:06:27
ukrainians would be00:06:30
nervous about deploying it to the battle00:06:33
lines in the way that they are00:06:36
apparently are in which00:06:39
case perhaps the fact that the leopard 200:06:44
is now apparently approaching the battle00:06:47
lines is a sign that the deliveries of00:06:51
t72 is modernized refurbished00:06:55
t-72s are not perhaps proving as extend00:06:59
expensive as some said so few weapon00:07:03
systems from Europe Germany does00:07:05
continue to provide weapon systems to00:07:07
Ukraine it's supplied Ukraine with a00:07:10
further batch of I believe 25 mder00:07:13
infantry fighting vehicles for example00:07:16
and it continues to supply Ukraine with00:07:20
um surface to a missiles Iris T missiles00:07:25
and Patriot00:07:26
missiles but all of this is happening00:07:30
alongside reports that the German Army00:07:33
itself is in a terrible condition far00:07:37
from becoming stronger since the00:07:40
conflict began despite Chancellor00:07:43
Schultz's um00:07:45
statements that rebuilding Germany's00:07:48
defenses would be the priority and that00:07:52
Germany was working towards recreating00:07:55
its Armed Forces far from anything like00:07:58
that happened in it seems that the00:08:00
reality is that the German Army is00:08:03
continuing its increasingly rapid00:08:07
decline in and Decay into00:08:11
demoralization and00:08:14
obsolesence so there00:08:17
is a limit to how many weapons the00:08:21
Europeans are able to00:08:24
supply and the same is true in the00:08:27
United States the the United States has00:08:30
supplied Ukraine with huge numbers of00:08:34
weapons it supplied Ukraine with large00:08:38
amounts of artillery M 7 howitzers it00:08:41
supplied Ukraine with Bradley infantry00:08:45
fighting Vehicles it supplied Ukraine00:08:48
with around00:08:50
2,155 mm shells and of course it's also00:08:55
supplied Ukraine with the 31 Abrahams00:08:58
tanks though so far we've not seen these00:09:01
on the battlefields and they've been00:09:03
supplying Ukraine with high M missiles00:09:06
and attack's missiles and they're00:09:09
shortly going to help the Europeans00:09:13
Supply the s16s to Ukraine also so the00:09:18
United States has been supplying weapons00:09:21
at a far greater rate than any European00:09:24
country has done or indeed than the00:09:26
Europeans in aggregate have done00:09:29
and as I understand it production of00:09:32
shells 155 MIM shells in Europe is still00:09:37
around 4,000 shells a month which is a00:09:43
day's use by Ukraine in this00:09:48
war but the Americans have apparently00:09:52
increased shell production to around00:09:56
28,000 shells a month far from enough to00:10:01
meet either Ukrainian needs or those of00:10:05
the US military as a00:10:09
whole but still more than what the00:10:11
Europeans are producing the point is and00:10:15
this is where we come back to my point00:10:17
about00:10:18
shells the ability of the United States00:10:21
to continue to supply weapon systems to00:10:26
Ukraine at the levels that he did in00:10:31
2022 and this year are now becoming00:10:36
exhausted so whilst some weapons no00:10:40
doubt will continue to be supplied to00:10:42
Ukraine it's00:10:45
perhaps a nice way for the Americans and00:10:49
the Germans to rationalize the fact that00:10:54
they're being obliged to supply less and00:10:57
less by protect pretending that this is00:10:59
all some kind of cunning plan to force00:11:03
the ukrainians into00:11:06
negotiations the reality or so it seems00:11:09
to me is completely different it is the00:11:13
fact that the Americans the Germans the00:11:18
other European allies are unable to00:11:21
supply Ukraine with the quantities of00:11:25
weapons that it needs to conduct a00:11:29
offensives it is that reality which is00:11:33
forcing the American and German00:11:36
governments to tell zalinsky to tell the00:11:39
ukrainians that the time has come for00:11:42
them to begin some kind of negotiating00:11:45
process with the Russians so this needs00:11:50
to be understood what it as what it is00:11:53
it's not a00:11:57
clan it's something something that has00:12:01
been forced on the Germans and the00:12:05
Americans by the00:12:07
logistical and Industrial realities that00:12:11
people like Brian btic at the new Atlas00:12:15
Alex vinin at the Royal United Services00:12:19
Institute00:12:21
myself us the Jan and many others have00:12:26
been saying and talking about all00:12:30
along now it's makes for a nicer story00:12:38
it doesn't00:12:39
confront European and American publics00:12:43
with the Stark reality that the Western00:12:46
powers are out of weapons to sell you to00:12:50
send to00:12:53
Ukraine by00:12:55
pretending that the ukrainians are not00:12:58
not getting all the weapons that they00:13:01
need because the West wants to push00:13:04
Ukraine into00:13:06
negotiations you don't want to admit to00:13:11
people in the United States00:13:13
especially but I suspect to people in00:13:16
Europe as00:13:18
well that youve been00:13:21
outproduced in weapons00:13:24
production by the Russians a country00:13:29
which has been00:13:30
derided for many years as the gas00:13:34
station masquerading as a country and00:13:39
which President Barack Obama once said00:13:44
doesn't produce00:13:46
anything these00:13:48
memes have become so much part of the00:13:54
universal language political language in00:13:57
the west that they have played such a00:13:59
huge role in00:14:03
shaping Western thinking about00:14:06
geopolitical Affairs that the Russians00:14:08
are broken that they got no industrial00:14:11
base to speak of that their00:14:14
manufacturing and technology is00:14:17
primitive and not remotely at the level00:14:20
of the United States that you can't00:14:25
just set these memes to one00:14:29
side and admit that they were wrong all00:14:34
along doing that opens you00:14:38
up opens the American and German00:14:42
governments especially and perhaps the00:14:44
British government up also to00:14:48
questions about the quality of their00:14:53
intelligence their understanding of what00:14:56
Russia really was about00:14:59
and the whole nature of the00:15:00
decisionmaking process that brought us00:15:03
to this disastrous00:15:06
point in the first00:15:09
place now it gets more interesting00:15:12
because even as this article in belt00:15:17
ziton has00:15:20
appeared the lead negotiator on the00:15:24
Ukrainian side in the negotiations with00:15:28
the Russian00:15:29
in February and March last year David I00:15:35
never get his name exactly right David00:15:39
aramia has now given an explosive00:15:43
interview for Ukrainian00:15:46
television now those of you who have00:15:49
been listening to this Channel and to00:15:53
the Duran and who have been listening00:15:56
also to our interviews especially00:15:58
especially with Professor Jeffrey Sachs00:16:01
our discussions our live streams with00:16:03
Professor Jeffrey Sachs will already00:16:06
know the truth about those negotiations00:16:10
we in fact on the Duran recently did a00:16:12
program about the latest German report00:16:16
about the negotiations which has00:16:18
provided a timeline it was um put00:16:22
together by U Michael schulenberg German00:16:25
Diplomat who served for many years in00:16:28
the United Nations and it was a un SEC00:16:31
uh a deputy Secretary General of the UN00:16:34
General00:16:35
kuyat00:16:37
former Chief military officer in the00:16:41
German Army an important NATO official I00:16:46
believe in fact he was the military00:16:48
Chief or or or highest military ranking00:16:51
officer within NATO at one particular00:16:55
time but anyway that report has detailed00:16:59
and gone into exhaustive detail about00:17:01
those negotiations the ones that took00:17:04
place in February and March of last year00:17:07
and they have shown that00:17:11
the00:17:13
negotiations were indeed on the brink of00:17:17
success that the ukrainians and the00:17:20
Russians when they got together found00:17:23
that they could find Common Ground00:17:25
extremely00:17:27
fast that the agreement the original00:17:31
heads of proposal were initialed by both00:17:35
sides I've slightly gone a little beyond00:17:39
what this German report says but I think00:17:41
that reading it and comparing it with00:17:45
what Russian officials and other people00:17:47
who are participating in those00:17:50
negotiations have also said you can see00:17:55
that the Russian claim that the true00:17:57
reason00:17:58
why they withdrew their forces from00:18:01
around Kiev in March and April00:18:07
2022 was because they genuinely00:18:11
believed that a deal was about to be00:18:15
signed and that the war therefore was00:18:20
about to end and that they did do this00:18:23
at Ukraine's request and as a Goodwill00:18:27
gesture00:18:29
in light of the progress in the00:18:33
negotiations00:18:35
so on the Duran on this00:18:39
program with Professor Sachs we've00:18:42
talked about this I've discussed at00:18:44
length we've discussed at length the00:18:46
outline negotiations that the outline of00:18:50
the agreement that had been agreed we've00:18:53
discussed this Glen de and I with the00:18:57
ambassador of Bell we did an interview00:18:59
with him the bellarus government played00:19:01
an important role in those00:19:04
negotiations we've also discussed it00:19:07
with the British historian Jeff Roberts00:19:10
who was tracking the00:19:11
negotiations closely and Professor00:19:14
Nikolai Petro as well I've just00:19:17
mentioned all of these things because00:19:20
what David aramia if I'm getting his00:19:23
name correct U has said to us to you00:19:29
those of you who have been watching00:19:31
these programs regularly well there's00:19:34
nothing in this interview that he has00:19:37
given which is in any way00:19:41
new he confirms that for the Russians00:19:45
the big issue was Ukraine's respective00:19:50
membership of NATO the ukrainians gave00:19:53
an undertaking over the course of the00:19:55
discussions that Ukraine would not join00:19:59
NATO00:20:01
and00:20:03
the rest all the other pieces rapidly00:20:08
fell into place and David aramia if I'm00:20:11
getting his name right has00:20:14
now essentially confirmed everything00:20:18
that we've been reading everything that00:20:20
we've been saying on the Duran and in00:20:21
other places and which appears in this00:20:25
German report which is only and this is00:20:27
not00:20:28
coincidence just come out he00:20:33
confirms that the agreement was all but00:20:36
reached that everybody the Russians the00:20:40
ukrainians were satisfied by the terms00:20:45
which had been agreed that they00:20:47
protected the core interests of both00:20:52
sides and that the negotiations were00:20:55
then00:20:56
wrecked at the insistence of the western00:21:01
Powers who00:21:04
sabotaged the00:21:07
negotiations and who00:21:10
prevented the agreement being00:21:13
concluded and that incidentally the00:21:16
events in that Northern suburb of Kiev00:21:20
which came to light in April the alleged00:21:23
Events maybe I should say that took00:21:25
place in that Northern suburb that they00:21:28
had no bearing on this decision00:21:33
to stop the00:21:36
negotiations and00:21:40
to go back on Ukraine's side to go back00:21:45
on the agreement which had been reached00:21:47
in00:21:49
Istanbul00:21:50
now00:21:52
this is now being communicated to the00:21:56
Ukrainian people at a time when as we00:22:00
will see shortly the war is heading for00:22:05
Ukraine towards00:22:08
crisis there's multiple defeats on the00:22:12
battlefronts we will see that Ukrainian00:22:16
military units Ukrainian military00:22:18
brigades some of the best brigades in00:22:20
the Ukrainian Army on us00:22:23
openly00:22:25
complaining about the leadership00:22:28
that they're receiving and about the00:22:30
orders that they're getting and about00:22:32
the way in which they've been thrown00:22:34
into00:22:37
battle and there are growing economic00:22:41
problems as00:22:44
well and of course again as we'll00:22:46
discuss further in the00:22:49
program there00:22:51
are00:22:53
now growing there's now growing evidence00:22:56
that President Zen00:22:58
is preparing to order a mass00:23:03
mobilization and all of this the00:23:05
Ukrainian people are been told by the00:23:08
lead negotiator their country's own lead00:23:13
negotiator that all of those months of00:23:19
fighting more than a year of fighting00:23:21
since then all those tens of thousands00:23:25
of men who Di00:23:29
fighting on the Ukrainian side in places00:23:31
like bmud seod donet Liz Chans marup in00:23:37
the summer offensive in all of these00:23:40
places that all of those lives could00:23:43
have been saved that the devastation of00:23:46
Ukraine could have been avoided that00:23:49
this new mobilization this new round of00:23:53
mobilization that they're now facing00:23:55
could have been avoided also00:23:59
had that agreement which was reached00:24:03
last year been00:24:06
implemented now that must be something00:24:10
which many people in Ukraine I don't00:24:13
know how much00:24:16
um how much how widely shown this00:24:20
interview has been but this must be00:24:23
something which many00:24:26
people in Ukraine are going to00:24:31
be00:24:32
distressed and angry about if the full00:24:36
implications of it finally sink in which00:24:41
I'm sure they00:24:42
will and then there is another twist to00:24:45
this and it's one that I have00:24:50
mentioned many times in the past and it00:24:54
reflects upon my own country Britain00:24:59
because even though it is now clear from00:25:02
the German report that it was in fact00:25:04
the United States President Biden and00:25:07
his00:25:08
officials00:25:10
who were the ones who were most00:25:14
unhappy about the deal that the00:25:18
ukrainians and the Russians had almost00:25:21
reached with each other and that it was00:25:24
the United States that took the first00:25:27
steps00:25:28
to try to bring these negotiations to an00:25:32
early close convening a NATO Summit00:25:35
meeting on the 24th of March which00:25:38
President Biden himself attended in00:25:41
order to prevent to get the Europeans to00:25:46
agree to take a United position setting00:25:50
conditions for the talks between the00:25:52
Russians and the ukrainians which they00:25:55
knew the Russians would not fulfill00:25:58
could not fulfill and which would00:26:01
have which were therefore00:26:03
intended to wreck the progress of the00:26:06
talks well even though it was the United00:26:09
States as I said which ultimately didn't00:26:12
want this deal to go00:26:15
ahead it was Britain it was the British00:26:19
prime00:26:20
minister Boris Johnson who acted as the00:26:24
US's00:26:25
enforcer was he who tell telephoned00:26:29
zalinski and told him that the British00:26:31
were opposed to the agreement that00:26:36
Ukraine and00:26:37
Russia appeared to have reached with00:26:40
each other it was Boris Johnson who then00:26:43
turned up unannounced in KV to insist to00:26:48
zalanski that this deal could not go00:26:52
ahead and of course it was Boris Johnson00:26:55
that told the00:26:58
ukrainians that if they pulled back on00:27:00
this deal if they continued with the war00:27:04
the Western Powers would make sure that00:27:07
Ukraine was provided with all the00:27:08
weapons and equipment and material that00:27:12
it needed in order not just to push the00:27:16
Russians towards00:27:18
compromise but to inflict a complete00:27:21
defeat upon00:27:22
them and I have always said that the00:27:25
role Britain has been playing in this00:27:27
this00:27:29
war opens up00:27:33
Britain to the role of00:27:35
scapegoat if one is needed both in the00:27:41
west and in Ukraine for what has gone00:27:46
wrong and I noticed again that in this00:27:51
interview David AR00:27:54
arakia who um if I'm going to get his00:27:58
name wrong by the way apologies to him00:28:01
if I'm not but anyway this gentleman the00:28:05
Ukrainian lead00:28:08
negotiator when asked why Ukraine didn't00:28:13
proceed with this draft agreement that00:28:18
had been reached with the00:28:19
Russians well he put all the blame for00:28:23
it on Boris Johnson he said it was the00:28:26
Boris Johnson00:28:28
who leaned on00:28:30
zalinski told zalinski not to go ahead00:28:34
he did so by telephone and by a personal00:28:39
visit and that it was Boris Johnson in00:28:42
other words and by extension Britain00:28:46
which wrecked the chance of00:28:50
peace and prevented the war from ending00:28:54
when it could have00:28:56
done and00:28:59
one can see that the ukrainians might00:29:02
want to blame Britain00:29:04
because given00:29:06
their severe dependence on the United00:29:10
States they probably don't want to put00:29:12
all the blame on the United00:29:15
States and we can also see why the US00:29:20
itself the Biden00:29:22
Administration might not be unhappy if00:29:25
all the00:29:26
blame for what is now starting to look00:29:29
increasingly like a00:29:31
debacle has to be put on Boris00:29:34
Johnson I don't know whether anybody00:29:38
pointed it out to him at the00:29:41
time but Boris Johnson going to Kiev00:29:45
acting as the White House's00:29:48
messenger an00:29:51
enforcer put him and ultimately Britain00:29:56
in a very very exposed00:29:59
position00:30:01
and the British00:30:04
governments overinvestment in supporting00:30:08
Ukraine and00:30:10
its clearcut00:30:13
position basically from the moment the00:30:17
fighting00:30:18
began which is that did oppos00:30:21
negotiations and by the way its position00:30:24
even before then which is that he didn't00:30:28
really even support the Minsk00:30:31
agreement leaves Britain now in a00:30:35
position where if Ukraine goes down to00:30:39
defeat is either totally defeated and00:30:42
overrun by the Russians and its00:30:46
existence as a state ends or if it is00:30:50
forced into a severely disadvantageous00:30:54
Peace by the Russians00:30:58
well everybody the00:31:01
ukrainians the Europeans the00:31:05
Americans they can all come together and00:31:08
agree on one thing that it is the00:31:11
British who are to00:31:13
blame well we'll see if that happens but00:31:18
it seems to me that with this interview00:31:21
by Ukraine's lead00:31:24
negotiator we got the first glimmer of00:31:29
that00:31:30
anyway00:31:32
that's a sure sign it seems to me of00:31:36
what is going on behind the scenes and00:31:39
it's clear that zalinski himself is00:31:41
becoming increasingly nervous yesterday00:31:45
he announced the00:31:47
sacking of I understand all the deputy00:31:52
ministers um in the ministry that00:31:56
controls Ukraine's National Guard now00:31:59
this is00:32:00
a internal control00:32:05
organization um it is one of the mo more00:32:09
ideological formations within the00:32:12
Ukrainian Armed00:32:15
Forces um some months00:32:18
ago zalinski sacked its Chief and00:32:24
replaced the the chief of the national00:32:27
National Guard with an officer who he00:32:29
appears to have thought would be more00:32:32
reliable and more loyal to00:32:35
himself the deputies who have just been00:32:39
sacked are apparently people who this00:32:45
officer who you zilinski himself00:32:49
appointed just a few months00:32:54
ago appointed to their position00:32:57
positions it looks as if zalinski is00:33:02
starting to doubt the00:33:08
reliability of the National Guard in a00:33:13
crisis apparently he doesn't even trust00:33:17
the person he previously appointed he's00:33:21
now sacked his deputies he's appointing00:33:25
new people parent ly more loyal to00:33:29
himself and it's quite plausible that he00:33:33
might be preparing to sack the minister00:33:36
himself the very Minister whom he00:33:40
appointed and yesterday he00:33:43
gave a00:33:45
mumbling rather00:33:48
unconvincing and far00:33:50
from strong00:33:52
speech in which he basically however00:33:56
conf confirmed that next week this00:34:00
massive mobilization that we've been00:34:02
hearing so much about the one that is00:34:05
going to call up um young men many of00:34:10
them teenagers and perhaps women and00:34:14
that's apparently going to be launched00:34:17
next week and we can as I've discussed00:34:20
in many programs the military leadership00:34:24
from what I've been able to understand00:34:26
has been demanded in this00:34:29
mobilization and so have the Western00:34:32
powers and00:34:34
zalinski very00:34:36
nervously is now coming00:34:39
round finally to ordering it and you can00:34:44
see what's happening zalinski is being00:34:47
pushed into a position where Ukraine is00:34:51
supposed to go onto the defensive it's00:34:54
now widely understood that00:34:58
further offensives by the Ukrainian00:35:02
military are00:35:04
impossible the West is not in a position00:35:07
to00:35:08
supply sufficient00:35:10
weapons for an offensive like that to00:35:13
take00:35:15
place00:35:16
The Continuous offensives that Ukraine00:35:19
has been engaging in since the late00:35:22
summer of00:35:24
2022 the ones in har00:35:27
and hon region last year and this00:35:30
enormous offensive that Ukraine00:35:34
launched and um early this summer and00:35:38
which in some places continues to00:35:43
flicker all of this has caused the00:35:47
Ukrainian Army to suffer enormous00:35:50
Manpower00:35:52
losses even though the Western media00:35:55
continues to pretend that Ukrainian00:35:58
losses have been far lower than Russian00:36:02
losses the facts speak otherwise and we00:36:07
get a we're now getting more and more00:36:09
and more reports in the western media00:36:12
about how Ukrainian units are severely00:36:16
under strength how the men are exhausted00:36:20
and are at the end of that tether how00:36:23
they desperately need reinforcement so00:36:27
the idea is go onto the defensive we in00:36:31
the west we hope that we can at least00:36:33
provide you with enough weapons so that00:36:36
you can hold your positions on the00:36:39
defense and fill up your brigades with00:36:44
teenagers and00:36:47
women and00:36:49
hope that this is enough to keep the00:36:55
Russian00:36:59
Juggernaut that's rumbling towards you00:37:03
at00:37:04
Bay and in the00:37:07
meantime begin00:37:10
negotiations try to get a00:37:13
freeze by yourself00:37:15
time the wool was pulled over the00:37:19
Russians eyes during the negotiations in00:37:22
March and April last year the same thing00:37:26
was done00:37:27
way back in February 15 2015 with the00:37:31
Minsk agreement perhaps just possibly00:37:35
you can p off pull off the same trick a00:37:38
third time giving yourself more time and00:37:41
space so that at least we can get our00:37:46
difficult00:37:47
elections in 2024 in the west out of the00:37:51
way it's not just the United States00:37:53
that's holding elections in00:37:55
2024 they are happening in many00:37:57
countries including Britain by the way00:37:59
but anyway get all those elections out00:38:02
of the way um hold things together until00:38:06
then and well we don't really know what00:38:09
we're going to do beyond that we're00:38:11
floating all sorts of ideas about you00:38:14
joining NATO and you joining the EU or00:38:17
us giving you security guarantees and00:38:19
things of that kind but at least if you00:38:23
do these things if you're able to00:38:25
rebuild your front lines with teenagers00:38:29
and women and whatever00:38:32
other Manpower you can put together well00:38:37
that might be enough to stabilize the00:38:40
situation long00:38:43
enough so that we can get through our00:38:46
elections and who knows perhaps00:38:49
something then will turn up maybe00:38:52
there'll be a political crisis in Moscow00:38:56
May maybe Putin will finally suffer one00:39:00
of these many mythical illnesses that00:39:02
he's supposed to be suffering from00:39:06
and that will affect him maybe the00:39:09
oligarchs will finally turn on him maybe00:39:12
the Chinese will turn on him too who00:39:14
knows we can keep our fingers crossed00:39:17
and hope that something will turn up now00:39:21
zalinski himself has been most unwilling00:39:25
to go down this route and it's not just00:39:27
a case of him being delusional and00:39:31
Messianic as that Time magazine article00:39:36
um discussed a few weeks ago though00:39:40
there is no doubt an element of that00:39:43
it's that he is after all an elected00:39:49
politician and he probably understands00:39:52
and even if he doesn't understand the00:39:54
people around him people like y Mark00:39:57
undoubtedly do understand how difficult00:40:01
this is going to be to sell to the00:40:04
Ukrainian00:40:06
public so he's now got to persuade00:40:11
ukrainians to agree to this further00:40:16
mobilization he's got to get them to00:40:22
agree to a indefinite prolongation of00:40:26
the war where only a few months ago they00:40:30
were being assured that victory was00:40:34
round the00:40:35
corner and it's00:40:38
unsurprising that he's nervous that if00:40:43
he starts negotiations from a weaker00:40:45
position than the one he was in last00:40:48
year with the Russians once more at his00:40:53
Gates and with the country00:40:57
broken up and00:41:00
exhausted well there is a real00:41:03
possibility that people might begin to00:41:05
turn on him that this new mindan that he00:41:10
says that he's worried about protest00:41:12
movement in Kiev in other words um that00:41:16
that that might even00:41:18
happen and it's not surprising00:41:23
therefore that he's taking step00:41:27
to try to ensure the Loyalty of00:41:29
Ukraine's internal security forces by00:41:33
sacking all the deputy ministers in the00:41:37
um National Guard and replacing them by00:41:41
people he considers more00:41:44
reliable I should say I don't know00:41:48
myself what the real actual00:41:51
danger of a new maidan is but as we will00:41:57
see shortly there is indeed there are00:42:00
indeed Signs Now of growing in unrest on00:42:04
the part of the soldiers the actual00:42:07
soldiers on the front lines and as we00:42:11
also know as the blame game following00:42:14
the failure of the offensive the summer00:42:16
offensive has been00:42:19
escalating relations between zalinski00:42:23
and the military leadership the general00:42:26
staff00:42:28
zi taravi all of those people has also00:42:34
all but broken00:42:35
down now I say all of this but of course00:42:39
zalinski himself as he perhaps00:42:43
understands has no very clear Way00:42:46
Forward because he insists that ground00:42:51
must continue to be held he's been00:42:55
rejecting also suggestions apparently00:42:57
that a abva be abandoned just as he00:43:02
previously rejected all proposals that00:43:06
bachet being be abandoned earlier this00:43:09
year so he's digging in there he wants00:43:14
offensives to continue there have been00:43:17
more reports of more attacks in all00:43:21
sorts of places um on the front lines by00:43:25
Ukrainian specific speically and most00:43:27
importantly in the um00:43:30
Roto ver area there's been lots of00:43:35
attacks going on there and even though00:43:39
these attacks achieve nothing he's very00:43:41
reluctant to acknowledge that the00:43:45
offensive in its totality was a failure00:43:48
he insisted and got his attack on00:43:52
gorlovka many people think that that00:43:55
attack was intended to persuade the00:43:57
Russians to divert troops from bakut or00:44:01
of DEA my own view consistent with what00:44:05
we've been reading about zalanski is on00:44:08
the contrary that he really did hope00:44:11
that a surprise attack on gorlovka would00:44:15
actually result in its capture um00:44:19
enabling him to change the narrative00:44:23
about the direction of the war and I00:44:26
suspect the same has been true to some00:44:28
extent about Ukrainian00:44:30
operations on her son in hon region or00:44:34
the Nea River so he insists that every00:44:38
millimeter of ground be defended as he00:44:40
always has done he insists that the00:44:43
offensive continue he continues to00:44:45
insist that the war itself continue and00:44:50
we've had an00:44:53
astonishing and really very deeply00:44:55
disturbing00:44:59
set of comments from Alex danilov the00:45:03
Secretary of Ukraine's uh National00:45:07
Security and defense00:45:09
Council which in my opinion is in terms00:45:13
of military decision making almost00:45:16
certainly a more important body than the00:45:19
defense Ministry itself anyway danilov00:45:23
who strikes me as a strongly00:45:28
ideological um00:45:30
figure uh probably close to Andre00:45:35
ymak um zelinsky's Chief of Staff anyway00:45:40
danilov00:45:42
basically00:45:44
acknowledged that all the entire00:45:46
situation on the00:45:48
battlefronts is becoming Grim it's very00:45:52
difficult for00:45:54
Ukraine he also00:45:56
admitted that in00:45:59
2024 the situation was going to become00:46:03
Grimmer still that the Russians are00:46:06
building up their forces that Ukraine's00:46:09
military is exhausted and run down that00:46:13
the Western powers are not supplying the00:46:19
equipment and ammunition that Ukraine00:46:24
needs but00:46:26
instead of providing some way out for00:46:29
Ukraine from00:46:31
this00:46:33
he offered more of the same he suggested00:46:38
that what the ukrainians need to do is00:46:41
to endure all of this to try to find00:46:45
some way of getting through00:46:48
2024 he didn't explain why he thinks00:46:53
2025 would in that case be any better on00:46:57
current trends it looks like it's going00:47:01
to get00:47:02
worse00:47:04
he00:47:07
proposed what looked to me like War00:47:10
without00:47:12
end with no Prospect however of Victory00:47:17
with no root map with no plan for how00:47:22
Ukraine would eventually achieve its00:47:27
Victory against an adversary Russia who00:47:31
more and more people in Ukraine we saw00:47:34
that with the interview that Hana malar00:47:38
the former deputy defense minister gave00:47:40
which I discussed yesterday which all00:47:44
increasing numbers of people in Ukraine00:47:48
now00:47:49
acknowledge is much more00:47:52
powerful but that still seems to be00:47:56
zin's position he doesn't he's00:48:00
been very reluctantly pushed towards a00:48:03
defensive00:48:05
strategy he's been very reluctantly00:48:08
pushed towards a mobilization which he00:48:12
clearly00:48:14
fears could00:48:16
trigger severe social00:48:19
tensions and he's00:48:22
obviously unhappy about the prospect00:48:26
a re-entering negotiations with the00:48:28
Russians he know how he knows how deeply00:48:32
demoralizing that would be for the00:48:34
Ukrainian people after all the00:48:37
sacrifices and Promises of victory that00:48:41
they've been given00:48:44
and at the same time00:48:47
zalinski and theila and people like that00:48:52
have no real plan for how to win the war00:48:57
all they can00:48:59
offer is Victory Without End I remember00:49:03
that way back in 2022 Lieutenant Colonel00:49:08
Daniel Davis who's always impressed me00:49:11
has been one of the best military00:49:14
commentators in the United States both00:49:17
about this war and about every other he00:49:22
made the same point he made the point00:49:26
that00:49:28
Ukraine has00:49:30
no possible no rational root to victory00:49:35
in this war that's been my Feeling by00:49:38
the way right from the00:49:41
outset um Daniel00:49:44
Davis made that point as I said last00:49:47
year and we now00:49:50
see00:49:52
starkly how that how true that is00:49:56
the ukrainians listened to the siren00:49:59
voices of people like Boris00:50:02
Johnson and people in the00:50:07
west they thought they would get00:50:09
unlimited Western00:50:12
Aid they didn't00:50:16
perhaps look at contemporary00:50:19
history um when they accepted those00:50:22
promises they certainly grossly00:50:25
underestimated the Russians I've been00:50:30
reading another interview with a00:50:33
Ukrainian officer who was on the 47th00:50:36
mechanized Brigade um the one the00:50:39
armored force that participated in the00:50:42
zapar roia offensive you can find Long00:50:46
extracts of that interview um on00:50:50
simplicius the thinkers U Blog on00:50:54
substack anyway this officer also00:50:57
confirms that the ukrainians were00:51:00
expecting that when the attack in zapar00:51:04
roia was launched the Russian defenses00:51:07
would crumble that the Russian soldiers00:51:10
would flee so the ukrainians last year00:51:14
and for much of this year appear to have00:51:18
believed all00:51:20
that but the reality always was exactly00:51:24
as Lieutenant Colonel Davis has said00:51:30
that the ukrainians have no rout to00:51:34
Victory and we now see all of00:51:39
that presenting itself on the00:51:43
battlefields in ways that even the00:51:45
Ukrainian00:51:46
leadership can't00:51:49
deny00:51:50
so most probably over the00:51:54
next few days maybe a week we will get00:51:59
this announcement of this terrible00:52:02
mobilization I do stress again I think00:52:05
this is a terrible idea of this00:52:07
mobilization that Ukraine is about to00:52:10
launch and we will probably see that00:52:13
this will happen with announcements that00:52:16
Ukraine for the moment is indeed00:52:19
transitioning to a defense defensive00:52:23
strategy that will this will no doubt00:52:25
come with promises and assurances that00:52:29
Ukraine as soon as it's reorganized and00:52:32
rebuil its forces will go on the attack00:52:36
again I personally doubt that00:52:40
zalinski is capable of beginning any00:52:43
kind of talks with the Russians and it's00:52:46
become obvious to me that the Western00:52:52
Powers have no real strategy for00:52:55
negotiations and that all the ideas that00:52:58
they have of freezing the conflict00:53:01
allowing the Russians to keep what they00:53:04
have but making no bigger commitments00:53:07
than that perhaps accepting00:53:11
that Ukraine might not join NATO but00:53:16
treating it as a NATO member def Factor00:53:20
if there is a freeze and of course some00:53:23
people like um00:53:25
arasmus the former NATO Secretary00:53:28
General still talk about Ukraine00:53:31
entering NATO even if 20% of its00:53:35
territory is under Russian00:53:37
control00:53:39
anyway there's no00:53:44
coherent or realistic Russ uh Western00:53:47
negotiating strategy there isn't one on00:53:51
the part of Ukraine either There's Hope00:53:55
of achieving a00:53:56
freeze but we're going to see Ukraine go00:53:59
onto the defensive we're going to see00:54:02
this enormous call up of young people00:54:05
very young people and perhaps00:54:10
women and all of this is going to00:54:14
happen as the Russian Juggernaut starts00:54:18
cranking up and gaining in00:54:21
power00:54:23
now the this is perhaps the point where00:54:26
I go back to the discussions about00:54:30
what's been happening on the00:54:33
battlefields now the Russian Ministry of00:54:36
Defense has recently provided um00:54:41
information about the um state of the00:54:45
fighting um they haven't done this they00:54:48
haven't been doing this now for some00:54:49
time but they have provided information00:54:52
about um the um quantities of weapons00:54:57
and um00:54:59
equipment and men that Ukraine has been00:55:03
losing over the course of this00:55:07
war H over the course of the last week I00:55:10
should say and I think I'm right in00:55:12
saying that there has actually been a00:55:15
sudden uptick in casualties that the00:55:19
Russian Ministry of defense is now00:55:22
reporting a significant increase00:55:25
in Ukrainian00:55:28
casualties well that may00:55:32
be that may be true but perhaps more00:55:35
importantly we're now getting more00:55:38
evidence that the defenses in00:55:44
AA the most important place where the00:55:47
fighting is going on at the moment that00:55:50
the defenses in OFA are now crumbling00:55:53
and crumbling very fast now there's been00:55:57
pictures that have appeared photographs00:55:59
which have appeared film that's00:56:02
appeared of Russian tanks rolling00:56:06
through um the00:56:09
um00:56:11
ruins of various locations in and around00:56:14
ABA I understand that these are in the00:56:17
South to the south east of ab AFA00:56:21
there's pictures of Ukrainian soldiers00:56:24
fleeing for their lives from the advance00:56:28
of these Russian00:56:30
tanks there's also reports that the um00:56:35
Russian uh mil that the Russian military00:56:38
is now um escalating its attacks on the00:56:44
um00:56:46
um um Coke plant and the industrial Zone00:56:50
in the north it seems generally accepted00:56:54
that the ukrainians have lost control in00:56:58
its entirety of the Southern Industrial00:57:01
Zone in00:57:04
AA and yesterday there were also all00:57:07
sorts of reports that were pouring in00:57:09
about the Russians having gained control00:57:11
of yet another area called the00:57:15
wetlands but I'm going to say straight00:57:17
away that I have no ability no00:57:21
understanding exactly of where these wet00:57:25
lands relative to the rest of00:57:27
AA actually are say say that they appear00:57:32
to me to be somewhere to the southeast00:57:36
of of Deka itself but within the overall00:57:40
defense00:57:41
positions and there's also further news00:57:46
that the Russians have been00:57:48
advancing again to the north uh west of00:57:52
the Railway and northward towards00:57:56
oenia and that00:57:59
they're pushing the ukrainians hard and00:58:03
that the pincers are indeed00:58:06
closing well all of that is very grim00:58:10
and it points to a catastrophic picture00:58:14
in Ava and one that does actually00:58:18
increasingly make me00:58:21
wonder about how long the battle for a D00:58:25
AFA can be00:58:26
sustained but perhaps the most00:58:28
remarkable news uh the thing that00:58:31
perhaps tells us most about the state of00:58:35
this battle is that it appears that two00:58:38
of the military units the Ukrainian00:58:41
military units that have been defending00:58:44
abfa are now openly quarreling with each00:58:47
other there's been another00:58:51
film produced by soldiers of the 110th00:58:56
Brigade which is the Brigade that is00:59:00
defending a DEA itself that is located00:59:04
in avva itself the soldiers these the00:59:08
same Brigade published a video about a00:59:12
week00:59:13
ago in which they complained bitterly00:59:16
about the fact that they'd been00:59:18
abandoned by their Command00:59:21
Staff and that they were being asked to00:59:25
try to recapture the slag Heap despite00:59:28
the fact that they were not getting the00:59:30
artillery and other support that they00:59:33
needed and that many of their comrades00:59:36
many the bodies of many of their com00:59:39
comrades were therefore littered on the00:59:42
uh in and around the slag he00:59:46
after senseless orders to attack the00:59:50
slag he for the record I've heard noal00:59:53
reports of ukra Ukrainian attacks on the00:59:55
slacky since that video appeared anyway00:59:59
in this latest video the soldiers of the01:00:03
same Brigade01:00:04
complain that they've been01:00:07
told by soldiers of the adjoining 53rd01:00:14
Brigade which is01:00:16
defending the South South um Western01:00:22
flank of of day AFA somewhere to the01:00:26
west of where the 110th Brigade is01:00:31
itself located anyway they complained01:00:33
that they've been01:00:34
told by the men of the 53rd Brigade that01:00:38
the 53rd Brigade is now under such01:00:41
intense pressure from the01:00:43
Russians it is located in an area by the01:00:47
way which the Russian Air Force has been01:00:50
bombing01:00:51
heavily with Precision guided clust of01:00:55
Munitions anyway they they've been01:00:58
told the men of the 100 and 10th Brigade01:01:02
say that they've been told by the men of01:01:04
the 53rd Brigade that the 53rd Brigade01:01:09
cannot hold its positions for much01:01:11
longer that they're going to have to01:01:13
push and01:01:15
withdraw in which case the01:01:19
110th Brigade will be trapped it will be01:01:24
in01:01:25
the01:01:26
quadron and the men of the 110th Brigade01:01:31
making this video complained bitterly01:01:35
about the 53rd Brigade they say that the01:01:38
50 the men of the 53rd Brigade are01:01:44
cowards but in light of what the 53rd01:01:50
Brigade are01:01:53
saying it's now out01:01:55
questionable whether they can go on01:01:59
defending01:02:01
themselves01:02:03
now I've never come across anything01:02:06
quite like this in any war I've know of01:02:09
no previous occasion in a war where two01:02:12
military units of the same Army in the01:02:16
face of the enemy are arguing publicly01:02:20
with each other in this sort of way and01:02:24
the thread the Common Thread that unites01:02:29
these two units the 53rd Brigade and the01:02:33
110th Brigade is that they both appear01:02:37
to be01:02:39
under all but intolerable01:02:43
pressure now that01:02:46
suggests that the situation in of Deka01:02:49
is deteriorating very fast and it does01:02:53
make one wonder how much long longer01:02:55
resistance can be sustained there um in01:03:00
previous programs I've suggested that01:03:03
the Russians might be able to capture01:03:08
abfa um by the end of the01:03:13
year these latest01:03:16
statements by these Ukrainian brigades01:03:20
the men of these Ukrainian brigades and01:03:23
make the do make me01:03:25
wonder whether the collapse might01:03:29
actually come more quickly I mean I01:03:32
don't know that that's01:03:35
just a possibility it seems to me but01:03:39
anyway it does seem as if the situation01:03:42
in avva is01:03:44
becoming unbearable for the ukrainians01:03:48
the Ukrainian soldiers who are defending01:03:50
it and it's not the only place01:03:54
where there has been01:03:57
unrest on the part of the soldiers who01:03:59
are01:04:00
fighting again about a week ago I think01:04:04
I mentioned that a brigade a marine01:04:07
Brigade Ukrainian Marine Brigade which01:04:11
has been01:04:12
involved in the operation on the Nea01:04:15
River in hon region has also published01:04:19
on its website a complaint about the01:04:22
enormous losses that it suffering the01:04:25
fact that it is being bombed by the01:04:27
Russians all the time and it has01:04:30
complained angrily that there is a01:04:33
traitor somewhere that is dis disclosing01:04:37
its positions to the Russian Air Force01:04:41
and another Brigade in a completely01:04:45
different part of the front line in a01:04:48
place called B Bell goroda I think I got01:04:52
the name correctly which I understand is01:04:54
in lugansk region has now also come out01:04:58
and publicly published a01:05:01
video and its men also are complaining01:05:05
that they've been put in an almost01:05:08
unbearable position they say that they01:05:11
are defending this Village but they are01:05:15
denied artillery support they have01:05:17
inadequate artillery support in01:05:20
inadequate military equipment um to01:05:23
assist them and again one gets the sense01:05:28
that one of the factors that is causing01:05:30
them to be01:05:33
um01:05:34
restive and unhappy is that they're now01:05:38
being regularly bombed by the Russian01:05:42
Air Force also with clust of01:05:46
bombs so four brigades a marine Brigade01:05:51
in hon region two brigades in01:05:55
abka one Brigade in lugansk region or so01:05:58
I understand all of them complaining01:06:03
now about the way in which the war is01:06:06
being conducted about traitors in their01:06:09
midst about illogical orders about01:06:13
severe losses about inadequate01:06:17
support and in the case of the 110th01:06:21
Brigade about the fact that they are not01:06:24
not they've been abandoned by The01:06:27
Command Staff and in the case of the01:06:30
Marine01:06:31
Brigade that there is no Command Staff01:06:34
to speak of in this Village of kinki01:06:38
where they're holding out um because the01:06:43
senior officers have never gone01:06:46
there and one could see how the picture01:06:52
therefore looks grim01:06:54
and I discussed in this program the fact01:06:57
that it was the fighting in um AA that01:07:02
is perhaps the most important but it's01:07:04
not the only place where things have01:07:06
been happening on the battlefronts01:07:09
there's been reports that the Russians01:07:11
are closing in on this Village of Novo01:07:13
mikova they apparently gained more01:07:16
ground around Novo mikova yesterday I'm01:07:19
uncertain about the importance of this01:07:22
Village which is located somewhere to01:07:24
the south of01:07:25
Minka and there's been more reports of01:07:28
more Russian advances now in the bachmat01:07:31
area they appear to be pushing hard to01:07:34
recapture the heights around01:07:36
clfa and there's some reports that the01:07:39
Russians are pushing forward more01:07:41
purposefully in the north towards01:07:45
bogdanovka well we'll see but the key01:07:49
Point anyway is that the ukrainians01:07:51
appear to be suffering increasing ly01:07:54
heavy01:07:56
attration and coming back to the Russian01:07:58
Ministry of defense this is what it says01:08:02
about Ukrainian losses over the last01:08:05
week it says that in the period from01:08:08
18th to 24th of01:08:10
November the ukrainians Lost 30501:08:14
men uh dead and wounded in the cians01:08:18
area they suffer they lost a further 7401:08:23
40 men killed and wounded in the lean01:08:30
area in the bmet01:08:33
area they lost01:08:37
1,680 men killed and01:08:41
wounded still by far the heaviest losses01:08:44
that Ukraine is suffering continue to be01:08:47
lost in the in the bmet area in the01:08:53
southern donet area that is to say in01:08:56
the vov calient the Russians say that01:09:00
the ukrainians Lost01:09:02
625 men dead and wounded in the zapor01:09:07
roia region the area of verb roboo they01:09:12
lost01:09:13
435 men in you men dead and wounded here01:09:20
however they also lost large numbers of01:09:22
armored Vehicles three tanks 21 armored01:09:27
fighting01:09:29
vehicles and in01:09:32
hon in the area primarily of kinki they01:09:36
lost 405 men dead and wounded and here01:09:42
by the way they also lost 11 artillery01:09:47
guns and 1201:09:52
boats and the Russian Air Force01:09:55
continues to systematically destroy01:09:58
Ukraine's Air Force um over the previous01:10:01
week only one M 29 was shot down01:10:05
probably because there are fewer of01:10:06
these left now but yesterday apparently01:10:09
two more were shot down and incidentally01:10:12
there's been reports that the Russians01:10:14
have now supplied more suho 57 and suho01:10:20
35 aircraft and suho 34 air craft to01:10:24
their Air Force and that the Mig 3501:10:28
light fighter is now also being deployed01:10:31
on the battlefronts this is a very very01:10:35
heavily modernized01:10:38
mc29 aircraft based on the MiG 29 it is01:10:43
it apparently01:10:44
has an Asar radar more advanced than01:10:49
that of the suho 35 for example and it01:10:53
it's starting to be deployed on the01:10:56
battlefronts also so very heavy losses01:11:01
by Ukraine deteriorating military01:11:04
picture by Ukraine Ukraine being01:11:09
forced against the wishes of its01:11:11
president to01:11:14
order what I think will be a01:11:17
catastrophic01:11:20
mobilization talk about going on the01:11:23
defensive though it's not clear01:11:27
where and in the01:11:30
meantime the soldiers in the01:11:33
Army four brigades now are becoming01:11:37
increasingly restless and are no01:11:43
longer unwilling to make their concerns01:11:48
public suggesting that military01:11:52
discipline might be starting if not01:11:55
exactly to break down at least to01:12:00
fracture what on the other side well I01:12:03
got a fascinating report yesterday from01:12:08
an exceptionally well informed source01:12:11
and I am very very grateful to this01:12:14
person um providing me with further01:12:18
information about how the Russians are01:12:20
producing night vision devices in01:12:23
industrial quantities and this goes01:12:26
beyond the night vision devices that01:12:29
have appeared on the drones the night01:12:33
vision devices that the Russians are01:12:36
producing are01:12:37
now being produced in industrial01:12:42
quantities and are being distributed01:12:44
right across their military and again01:12:47
I'm not going to discuss in detail what01:12:49
this person said to me because that01:12:51
might disclose facts about him all I01:12:55
would say is that again01:12:58
ingenious01:13:00
engineering and Industrial01:13:03
Solutions which I suspect for all sorts01:13:07
of reasons we are probably not capable01:13:12
of making in the west at least not in01:13:16
Europe perhaps in the United States it01:13:19
might be different but anyway01:13:22
fascinating AR I bringing home again the01:13:26
extent to which the Russian military the01:13:29
Russian IND military industrial complex01:13:31
is rising to the challenge of this war01:13:34
and is doing so successfully in sector01:13:38
after sector01:13:41
um ensuring that the01:13:43
troops on the front lines are kept01:13:46
supplied with all the weapons and all01:13:50
the ammunition and equipment that they01:13:52
need and again just to01:13:57
repeat the contrast between the way in01:14:00
which the Russians are enlisting men01:14:03
into their01:14:05
army luring them into the army or01:14:08
persuading them to join the Army as01:14:10
full-time professional soldiers giving01:14:14
them extensive01:14:16
training and this chaotic and disastrous01:14:22
mobilization that Ukraine is now01:14:24
hurtling towards well it is painful to01:14:28
painful to01:14:29
see but to reiterate again I see neither01:14:34
a military strategy whereby Ukraine can01:14:37
turn this process around nor a political01:14:41
one to repeat again perhaps the01:14:46
best the most01:14:48
intelligent piece01:14:50
written up to this in this conflict up01:14:54
to now about what Ukraine should do was01:14:58
written in my opinion back in a August01:15:02
by um um Jim Webb and George be they did01:15:09
suggest at that time whilst the01:15:11
offensive was still underway that01:15:14
Ukraine might be better advised to01:15:15
abandon the offensive and go onto the01:15:19
defensive but they also suggested that01:15:22
Ukraine begin substantive negotiations01:15:24
with the01:15:25
Russians going onto the defensive now is01:15:28
going to be much more difficult than it01:15:30
would have been in August when B and web01:15:34
proposed it the Ukrainian Army has been01:15:37
shattered and doing so without01:15:43
a political and diplomatic strategy to01:15:48
end the01:15:49
war is only going to buy Ukraine01:15:54
a little01:15:55
time and make the final defeat of01:16:01
Ukraine even more01:16:04
catastrophic with more thousands of01:16:07
people killed with the01:16:11
demographic balance in Ukraine perhaps01:16:14
upet Beyond01:16:17
retrieval and with01:16:19
a01:16:21
Gastly and un necessary waste of human01:16:26
life but that apparently is where we are01:16:30
and that is apparently the direction we01:16:33
are heading we shall see how it things01:16:37
turn01:16:38
out I think there's now a better than01:16:41
even chance that aica will fall at some01:16:46
point within the next few weeks but it01:16:49
does look as if the political temp01:16:51
temperature in Kia f is01:16:54
rising even as in Russia in advance of01:16:59
the elections in01:17:01
March it is becoming ever more confident01:17:06
on that front briefly to say there's01:17:08
been more economic news over the last01:17:12
few days from Russia it appears to01:17:15
suggest that despite the interest rate01:17:17
increases economic growth remains strong01:17:21
and though I think01:17:23
far too much time and effort is devoted01:17:26
to this topic um it also01:17:29
seems that the um Rubble has been01:17:34
strengthening over the last few01:17:37
weeks and that might have an EV an01:17:40
eventual effect on domestic inflation01:17:44
anyway leave all that aside what else01:17:48
has been going on in the world well I01:17:50
saw a furious AR article by U Donald01:17:55
Trump's former National Security01:17:58
advisor uh John Bolton Bolton and Trump01:18:01
by the way have now completely fallen01:18:04
out with each other Bolton is actively01:18:07
campaigning against Trump but anyway01:18:09
that's another story anyway John01:18:12
Bolton Furious about the humanitarian01:18:16
pause that has happened in Gaza01:18:20
complaining that this is a political01:18:22
victory01:18:23
for Hamas worried that the PS in Gaza01:18:29
might indeed eventually evolve into a01:18:33
fullscale01:18:37
ceasefire further comments by President01:18:40
Biden which also appeared to hint that01:18:45
converting the humanitarian PS into a01:18:49
ceasefire might indeed be what the01:18:52
administration ation is now trying to do01:18:55
will presumably make John Bolton and01:18:57
people like him even more01:19:01
angry but if that is indeed where we're01:19:04
going then all I will say01:19:07
is people like01:19:11
Bolton should have01:19:13
thought that this was at01:19:16
least a plausible01:19:19
outcome when they first advocated and01:19:23
push the01:19:25
Israelis into that military offensive in01:19:30
Gaza which has now been paused going all01:19:33
the way back to01:19:35
October I said that I thought it was a01:19:40
big01:19:41
mistake that the01:19:45
outcome might not turn out well01:19:48
politically speaking I'm not in any way01:19:51
disputing that if is01:19:53
Israel persists in its campaign in Gaza01:19:58
then at some01:20:00
point Hamas will be defeated but I've01:20:04
always said that it's the political01:20:07
constraints that are the problem anyway01:20:11
I wasn't the only person making that01:20:14
point then you'll find that there were01:20:16
lots of people in Israel as I've01:20:19
subsequently discovered who were making01:20:23
that point then01:20:24
also and it was also made or at least01:20:29
touched on by people like Lieutenant01:20:32
Colonel Davis as01:20:35
I uh the same person that I was01:20:39
mentioning earlier in the01:20:42
program I in no way set myself up as any01:20:46
kind of expert on Middle East Affairs01:20:50
but it does seem to me that I do01:20:52
occasionally listen to what people who01:20:57
understand the situation in the Middle01:21:00
East and who are familiar with military01:21:04
matters at at least at Le least listen01:21:07
to what these experts say seems to me01:21:11
that the problem with people like Mr01:21:13
Bolton is that they don't listen to01:21:16
anybody except01:21:18
themselves and if01:21:21
outcomes01:21:23
therefore invariably follow from what01:21:27
they01:21:28
Advocate which they don't01:21:32
like well they should blame themselves01:21:36
not other people anyway much more about01:21:40
that much more about the situation in01:21:42
the Middle East in future programs but01:21:46
suffice to say as I've said previously01:21:49
that it does seem to me that we are now01:21:53
or we could be01:21:54
seeing an important we could be at an01:21:57
important moment in the war in01:22:00
Ukraine that's my program this is my01:22:03
program for today more from me soon let01:22:06
me reiterate again that you can find all01:22:09
our programs on our various U platforms01:22:13
locals Rumble and X you can also support01:22:18
our work via patreon and subscrib star01:22:21
links under this video don't forget to01:22:24
check out our shop the amazing things01:22:27
that you will find there our magic mugs01:22:29
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last but not least if you've liked this01:22:34
video please remember to tick the like01:22:36
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from me soon have an excellent day and01:22:47
thank you for watching this01:22:51
program01:22:54
[Music]Description:
Kiev Crisis: Ukr Soldiers 'Cowardice' Quarrel, Adveyevka Falling; West Wants Talks, Zelensky Sacks Security Officials, Protest/Coup Fears Topic 1036 *****LOCALS COMMUNITY***** https://theduran.locals.com/ 1 MONTH FREE TRIAL: https://theduran.locals.com/support/promo/DURANLOCALS *****THE DURAN SHOP***** https://theduranshop.com/ 10% OFF COUPON. Use code at checkout: REALNEWS *****OUR OFFICIAL CHANNELS***** ALEXANDER: https://www.youtube.com/AlexanderMercourisReal ALEX: https://www.youtube.com/alexchristoforou *****CRYPTO SUPPORT***** BITCOIN: 3JvdnoyWMb93hSRgk58ZstUxg11PW9mKSr ETHEREUM: 0xF39BdFb41f639B82E3D2Bf022828bC6394F533A3 LTC: MGFiMC18ZViF6DcCixMqAAP11TG4tF6Acj ADA: addr1v94ayqu53uklgqnn6c4x4weu8zk4uw78km8capd5rjdc06q28j370 HEX: 0xD449694348B1D618ECa2829Bbc901782F5172689 EMC2: EXX4KK9pZLx7uiLWnCXtp7iMKjtq6o5b6R *****DONATE***** CREDIT CARD: https://donorbox.org/the-duran SUBSCRIBE STAR: https://www.subscribestar.com/theduran PATREON: https://www.patreon.com/theduran *****VIDEO PLATFORMS***** SUPER U: https://superu.net/channel/055dc88f-aec7-475a-a7ad-1ad271b0282d/ RUMBLE THE DURAN: https://rumble.com/c/theduran ODYSEE: THE DURAN: https://odysee.com/@theduran ALEXANDER: https://odysee.com/@AlexanderMercouris:a ALEX: https://odysee.com/@alexchristoforou:7 BITCHUTE: THE DURAN: https://www.bitchute.com/theduran/ ALEXANDER: https://www.bitchute.com/alexandermercouris/ ALEX: https://www.bitchute.com/channel/izwNAdmMGIC7/ *****AUDIO PODCASTS***** SPOTIFY: https://open.spotify.com/show/5DgkWsC3YjoyGBV03CFWnk iTunes: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-duran-podcast/id1442883993 Soundcloud: https://soundcloud.com/user-901836666 *****FREE SPEECH PLATFORMS***** TELEGRAM: https://t.me/thedurancom GAB: https://gab.ai/?r=1 MINDS: https://www.minds.com/theduran PARLER: https://parler.com/profile/theduran/posts MEWE: https://mewe.com/i/theduran VK: https://vk.com/thedurancom OK: https://ok.ru/group/60904083488959 DISCORD SERVER: https://discord.com/invite/7qFhcjHaeF Amazing music contribution from Peter Brown. Follow Peter's music: https://soundcloud.com/peterboy100
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