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3:10

Репутационные риски для Пашиняна и Токаева

5:00

Пригожин. Будет ли саботаж в войсках?

7:40

Система Пригожина сожрет, а Бахмут отобьют украинцы

8:15

Почему нет боеприпасов

10:22

В Украине россияне воюют за деньги

14:45

Россияне тратят половину денег на еду

20:11

Доля бедных и мощный статистический мухлеж

24:25

13 545 рублей — граница бедности в России

26:18

Почему Россия в десятке крупнейших экономик лишь номинально

33:20

Погорельцам в Курганской области выплатят по 10 000 рублей

35:10

«В каком мире эти люди живут?!»

37:51

Бельгия отдаст Украине 200 млн евро

43:30

Что с госдолгом США?

47:40

Чем сильнее кризис — тем доллар крепче

51:08

Финал

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⚡️НОВОСТИ | НАВАЛЬНЫЙ НАШЕЛСЯ В КОЛОНИИ В ЗАПОЛЯРЬЕ | МОБИЛИЗОВАННЫЕ — ПУТИНУ: ХОТИМ ДОМОЙ!

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⚡️НОВОСТИ | ПАНИН В РОЗЫСКЕ | МАШИНА ПАТРИАРХА В ДТП | ЗАПОРОЖСКАЯ АЭС ОБЕСТОЧЕНА | НАВАЛЬНЫЙ В ШИЗО

⚡️НОВОСТИ | ПАНИН В РОЗЫСКЕ | МАШИНА ПАТРИАРХА В ДТП | ЗАПОРОЖСКАЯ АЭС ОБЕСТОЧЕНА | НАВАЛЬНЫЙ В ШИЗО

Channel: Ходорковский LIVE

ВЕЛЛЕР: «Крокус» — у Путина не сходятся концы с концами. А не свои ли устроили теракт?

ВЕЛЛЕР: «Крокус» — у Путина не сходятся концы с концами. А не свои ли устроили теракт?

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00:00:00

Hello everyone Today, May 9, Tuesday is the

00:00:04

time for the rules of the game program on the

00:00:06

Khodorkovsky Life channel, my name is

00:00:07

Kirill Sedov, I immediately ask you not to

00:00:10

forget to like, write

00:00:11

comments, share this video on

00:00:14

social networks and subscribe to our channel,

00:00:16

all this is very important for our work with

00:00:19

me on communications Vladislav Inozemtsev we

00:00:20

are starting

00:00:22

[music]

00:00:26

Vladislav Glad to see you

00:00:30

let's start with the current news

00:00:34

Seven foreign leaders came to Moscow to celebrate Victory Day,

00:00:36

few people expected this and this is a record for

00:00:40

recent years, while there is not even a

00:00:42

round date this year associated with the

00:00:46

Day There is no victory What

00:00:49

political and economic levers do you think

00:00:52

Vladimir Putin had to press in order for

00:00:55

these visits to take place,

00:00:58

but I think that of course this is

00:01:02

the result of complex work and the

00:01:05

Kremlin works quite carefully, then we see

00:01:08

in Moscow virtually all the leaders of

00:01:11

the states of the Eurasian Union Armenia

00:01:15

Kazakhstan

00:01:16

Tajikistan are

00:01:18

their comrades

00:01:21

Turkmenistan is actually what we are talking about. I

00:01:25

think it’s not even so

00:01:27

significant that each country has a

00:01:31

serious

00:01:32

element of dependence on Russian

00:01:35

economic

00:01:38

money constantly from the Russian budget,

00:01:41

respectively, Armenia has

00:01:44

the status of its active parallel

00:01:46

exporter, which is also not really needed.

00:01:48

Similarly, in Kyrgyzstan in Tajikistan,

00:01:51

respectively, there is a whole package A whole

00:01:53

bunch of

00:01:54

tanks that she wants to get it from Moscow,

00:01:57

and plus, I think that you need to keep

00:01:59

in mind that the

00:02:02

strengthening or strengthening of the Union between

00:02:04

Russia and China is, of course, the

00:02:09

people of Moscow because the Chinese

00:02:12

side, of course, apparently also

00:02:14

crushed them in order to

00:02:17

create such an illusion of

00:02:20

normality, although what will not happen

00:02:23

wanted

00:02:24

because

00:02:28

it depends on Russia, China, and given that

00:02:33

if the interests of both big powers

00:02:36

turn out to be similar, then it’s clear that

00:02:38

trying to somehow

00:02:42

distort your own path is quite

00:02:44

difficult; of course, it’s clear that most

00:02:46

regional countries, especially Kazakhstan, have

00:02:48

always strived for the so-called

00:02:50

vectorization But still with Taking into account the fact

00:02:54

that Europe and America are now busy with

00:02:56

completely different issues, the first thing is that

00:02:58

Ukraine needs to adapt to the

00:03:01

reality that has developed in view of the

00:03:03

Russian-Chinese rapprochement and, in

00:03:06

general, they have nowhere to run, so

00:03:07

demonstrate

00:03:10

how this will be perceived. Isn’t it just in

00:03:13

Europe and America that this will happen?

00:03:15

confirmation that the same

00:03:17

Pashinyan or Tokayev indirectly support

00:03:20

the war in Ukraine

00:03:22

by being guests at the parade on Red

00:03:28

Square,

00:03:39

but again

00:03:42

in the West we will have to work a lot

00:03:45

with these republics in order to follow their

00:03:47

course, I cannot say that about the

00:03:49

Russian one, yes, on the contrary, I I’m sure

00:03:52

that the majority of the Central Asian

00:03:54

republics want to, let’s say,

00:03:56

continue their

00:03:59

multi-vector policy, which began its

00:04:01

time, they want to not depend on anyone and

00:04:05

work with everyone.

00:04:08

If the smell wants to rein them in, if he

00:04:12

wants some kind of loyalty from them, he

00:04:14

himself should indicate

00:04:16

too big especially big book

00:04:19

attention which is now honestly

00:04:20

No, we see officials coming

00:04:25

to the region with

00:04:30

secondary sanctions of some kind of help But

00:04:33

again you understand this is very much what I would

00:04:36

say is not a passive but a secondary position

00:04:39

That is, they are not pursuing any kind of

00:04:43

policy in the region, they are trying

00:04:45

react to what is happening there is a

00:04:47

flow of parallel importers Kazakhstan

00:04:49

they are trying to limit it a

00:04:52

similar situation arises in Armenia trying not to

00:04:55

react but some kind of systematic

00:04:57

plan on how to get these territories out of the

00:04:59

control of mutually intersecting

00:05:01

Russia China in the west Of course not,

00:05:04

continuing the theme of war a few days

00:05:07

ago happened unheard of, the founder of the

00:05:09

PMC Wagner, Evgeniy Prigozhin,

00:05:12

once again complained about the lack of ammunition, but

00:05:15

this time he prepared a surprise. The fact is

00:05:18

that for the first time he announced that his

00:05:20

fighters were ready to leave combat positions in

00:05:24

Bakhmut, and this is really a surprise

00:05:26

for many, this has never happened before in this

00:05:30

war, not in the last wars

00:05:32

waged by Russia or the Soviet Union, is it possible

00:05:35

now that, following Prigogine,

00:05:40

ordinary

00:05:42

Russian soldiers will begin to sabotage the orders of the command? The soldiers have accumulated or there is

00:05:44

sufficient tension for this in the

00:05:46

Russian troops,

00:05:48

you know? This is a very good question. I

00:05:51

would rather answer it in the negative.

00:05:53

tension Of course yes, and the problems

00:05:56

that Prigozhin says, they are, in general,

00:06:00

inherent not only to important Yes, but also to a

00:06:03

significant part of the regular army, that

00:06:05

is, supply is

00:06:08

not always effective leadership, this is what they

00:06:11

wrote about, but many many have already written about it,

00:06:13

so it’s like the whole disease in

00:06:18

general - the same is that a

00:06:21

special status is attached,

00:06:23

any field is played in it.

00:06:30

Yes, there are some closed ones,

00:06:32

some promises from Putin are indicated to those

00:06:36

people whom he releases from prison,

00:06:37

it’s all there, but it’s all unofficial and

00:06:40

therefore

00:06:41

Prigozhin has very

00:06:44

serious positions for pressure Moreover,

00:06:47

we see, in fact, the regular

00:06:50

army has little participation in the assault on Bakhmut,

00:06:53

Kadyrov himself, who very actively

00:06:56

tried to say that here he is, of course, he

00:06:57

will come to replace him, he will replace his forces with his

00:07:00

battalions, the handsome one didn’t

00:07:01

go anywhere, that is, Prigozhina

00:07:05

is playing today,

00:07:07

but this can ruin you in

00:07:09

fact, because in any case he issues

00:07:13

ultimatums, at some stage he

00:07:16

will have to fulfill them because

00:07:18

look already Today,

00:07:21

closer to the middle of the day, a message appeared

00:07:23

that he had been delivered a certain amount of

00:07:25

ammunition which, in his

00:07:28

opinion, he will not leave the position today,

00:07:31

but it’s snowing tomorrow if they bring him something else

00:07:33

Well, I think that in this tone

00:07:36

they will talk to the Russians

00:07:42

or they will try to simply replace him with

00:07:47

regular troops in general honestly.

00:07:49

That is, I think that

00:07:51

Prigozhin’s future is very unenviable and he has no

00:07:54

presidential or other political

00:07:56

prospects no, this is a person

00:07:59

who has been placed outside the system and the system will

00:08:01

devour him, that’s actually my feeling

00:08:04

Well, of course Bakhmud will be recaptured by the Ukrainians

00:08:07

late and no Prigozhin is standing today,

00:08:10

tell me, returning to the topic of

00:08:12

ammunition,

00:08:14

Prigozhin is not given ammunition because

00:08:16

they really are not physically there or

00:08:19

there are political reasons for this It’s just

00:08:21

such internal competition in the

00:08:23

Russian troops that

00:08:24

we don’t know, naturally, but I think it’s

00:08:28

unlikely because physically it’s not,

00:08:30

because you still need to understand a very simple

00:08:32

thing: Prigozhin is fighting on a small

00:08:35

section of the front where active

00:08:38

hostilities, very brutal, have not stopped

00:08:40

for 9 months and If we proceed from the

00:08:46

significance of this section, then of course

00:08:50

they should be given. I think that here we

00:08:54

are talking more about some kind of

00:08:57

grouping between the army and PMCs, that is, the

00:09:01

military promises Putin to take Bakhmud, but

00:09:05

since it is

00:09:07

always convenient to shove the blame on the mercenaries.

00:09:18

Why couldn’t the weapons be

00:09:20

coordinated? there was also that this is another

00:09:23

question for

00:09:25

the Ministry of Defense. It seems to me that the

00:09:27

Solar fight for the city by PMC forces is

00:09:31

to some extent even beneficial because

00:09:33

it removes attention and diverts attention

00:09:35

from them, there is a very complex

00:09:37

combination, just to say that

00:09:39

there are no shells and I’m definitely not I can

00:09:42

because so many analysts

00:09:45

said last year that the Russian

00:09:47

situation in the supply of

00:09:48

weapons and ammunition is very difficult, that the missile

00:09:51

will run out there in October in November, but

00:09:54

already in May the missile is flying today again there were

00:09:58

cruel circumstances and you are in large

00:09:59

cities, that is, we are talking about the fact that

00:10:01

ammunition is not running out, deep

00:10:04

conviction And if there is no one,

00:10:10

continuing the conversation about the mood inside the

00:10:14

Russian army and just remembering that

00:10:17

today, May 9, I want to create such a

00:10:21

question, there is a well-established opinion that the

00:10:24

Russian Soviet Soviet people of the

00:10:27

Soviet army endured all the hardships of the

00:10:29

Great Patriotic War because

00:10:32

they knew what they were fighting for right now in the

00:10:34

Russian army and among the Russian people,

00:10:36

is there such an understanding,

00:10:39

but listen, I think that

00:10:43

even if there is an understanding, it’s purely

00:10:46

mythology, because during the Great

00:10:49

Patriotic War it wasn’t that they

00:10:51

knew what they weren’t fighting for, but the situation is

00:10:52

absolutely obvious to your cruel enemy

00:10:55

who was simply coming to

00:10:57

destroy you for this, not that is, in

00:10:59

fact, if we seriously agree, the situation of the

00:11:02

Great Patriotic War in relation to the

00:11:04

Soviet people was

00:11:08

because you are being attacked by an external force

00:11:11

superior, at least in the first

00:11:15

stages of the war according to your man and without

00:11:18

stopping who simply sign a

00:11:20

death warrant for yourself as a people, you will be

00:11:22

destroyed by

00:11:27

a situation very similar to Russia attacked.

00:11:31

We can still remember that

00:11:33

literally 10 years ago many of the

00:11:35

current hawks, but there can remember

00:11:38

Seryozha Karaganov who said

00:11:40

everything 2000- e years that Russia is living better

00:11:43

than ever before in its history,

00:11:45

that this is a period of calm before an

00:11:48

increase in prosperity, this must be

00:11:49

taken advantage of, modernize the economy, you

00:11:52

need to be friends with the states before Europe, it

00:11:56

may be bad to deal with, but the

00:11:57

United States has created

00:11:59

partnership relations between Putin to rage Well and

00:12:03

so further

00:12:04

Nothing has changed in Russia, they didn’t

00:12:09

inflict it either in Georgia in 2008, not really

00:12:13

there, not in Crimea

00:12:17

before they somehow came, the green

00:12:21

men didn’t Now no one attacked there

00:12:24

in February 22 in the Belgorod

00:12:26

region, yes Or Belarus in this case,

00:12:30

speech the point is that Russia has now

00:12:31

obviously taken the position of an

00:12:34

aggressor and in order for the Russian people to begin

00:12:37

to understand that they need to fight for

00:12:40

some lofty goals, they need to allow a

00:12:42

war on a serious scale onto Russian

00:12:45

territory. I think that no one

00:12:46

will do this. And the Ukrainians themselves will

00:12:48

never will they go for it, they directly say that

00:12:50

they need their goal to achieve the return of the

00:12:53

occupied territories, that is, there is

00:12:55

no reason for

00:12:58

the Russians to be imbued with the same

00:13:00

sentiments as the Soviet people were to penetrate the

00:13:02

Great Patriotic War, that

00:13:04

is, there are parallels,

00:13:07

therefore, do they understand what they are fighting for?

00:13:10

understands he is fighting for nothing. It seems to me that the

00:13:13

overall picture is that

00:13:15

you understand,

00:13:19

while I see this war as, let’s say in

00:13:22

some way,

00:13:24

commercial, that is,

00:13:27

very high, that is, either these are people who have

00:13:30

signed a contract and are

00:13:32

actually working in highly paid jobs,

00:13:34

or these are people who have been mobilized

00:13:37

and also, so to speak, they were partly placed with

00:13:40

high payments. It seems to me that this

00:13:44

army is motivated today

00:13:46

financially, when the casualties become

00:13:49

too great, it will become clear that the goal is

00:13:53

not being achieved at all and in the end,

00:13:55

anyway, all those mobilized there will find

00:13:57

their end, this is a

00:13:59

crazy battle. I think now a little we

00:14:04

will see what will happen when it is

00:14:07

impossible to convince Ukrainians that

00:14:11

something is threatening when this is not the case when

00:14:13

you get to the forum it is clear that you

00:14:15

are already fighting, you are already fighting for your own life, but

00:14:17

there is already a different logic Yes, in principle, of

00:14:19

some kind In my opinion

00:14:22

conscription

00:14:25

in the Russian army

00:14:27

cannot because the situation, well, is

00:14:30

absolutely not conducive to

00:14:32

somehow heroically fighting there.

00:14:36

Well, just about the material motivation of

00:14:39

not only Russian soldiers but also Russians, let’s

00:14:43

move on to economic news, there are

00:14:45

very interesting figures, retail

00:14:48

trade turnover has fallen by more than 7 percent In

00:14:51

annual terms in the first quarter of

00:14:53

23, they already calculated that, taking into account

00:14:57

accumulated inflation, Russian

00:14:58

retail turnover fell below the level of 2011.

00:15:02

Can we conclude from this that in fact

00:15:04

Russians

00:15:05

have reduced purchases of food and goods to a

00:15:08

minimum in 13 years? And most importantly, what there

00:15:12

will be consequences of all this now,

00:15:17

you can eat,

00:15:18

that is, of course there are some

00:15:21

points that can be mentioned

00:15:31

based on the results of the third quarter, a drop of 7

00:15:33

percent, based on the results of March, the drop is

00:15:35

significantly lower there, somewhere around 5 with

00:15:37

a little But what does this show? It

00:15:39

shows that

00:15:41

retail trade turnover really the objective

00:15:43

fact is decreasing Why Because people are afraid of their

00:15:46

future, they don’t know what will happen tomorrow

00:15:48

Therefore, in the same March, when the

00:15:51

first quarter ends, we saw the

00:15:54

highest rate of savings accumulation over the

00:15:57

last 8 years, that is, people save

00:16:00

even though they have low incomes. Although

00:16:03

people still save money

00:16:06

because they are confident in what will happen tomorrow,

00:16:09

that is, yes, now their

00:16:11

pensions and salaries have been indexed, but they don’t know tomorrow,

00:16:15

now inflation is low if we take the

00:16:18

last 12 months, but it will be

00:16:21

so low in a few more months,

00:16:22

no one knows either, that is, people are running away,

00:16:25

people they are trying,

00:16:29

this does not mean people receive less

00:16:32

salary. This is not entirely true, but they

00:16:35

save because they are afraid; in

00:16:37

fact, these numbers first of all

00:16:40

show that people are afraid.

00:16:41

Of course, they will not be so large in the

00:16:44

second quarter, simply because the second

00:16:47

quarter would already be a failure in last year

00:16:49

and now, in fact, we remain. This is the

00:16:52

first quarter, this is, in general, a comparison

00:16:55

with a fairly prosperous period

00:16:56

of the past. But what else would I note here

00:16:59

regarding the statistics with which

00:17:02

the Rosstat is higher,

00:17:03

here there

00:17:10

was a completely different distribution of

00:17:12

these expenses between

00:17:15

industrial goods and

00:17:18

food products and it there was

00:17:22

approximately a gap of about 20

00:17:24

18 20 percent,

00:17:28

this is what we see in the last two and a

00:17:31

half years, this is a steady decrease

00:17:34

in this gap to almost zero.

00:17:36

The latest given status shows that

00:17:39

Russians spent 49.5 of all expenses on purchases, not

00:17:42

counting utilities here.

00:17:45

percent for

00:17:49

the other 50, in fact, the indicators agreed,

00:17:53

in other words, from those funds that are

00:17:55

spent on purchases, not on purchases, not on

00:17:59

payments for services and not on

00:18:01

loans, and necessarily 50 percent goes

00:18:04

on food, these expenses they

00:18:10

What does this mean in my opinion, this is a very

00:18:12

bad indicator Because if

00:18:14

let's look at, let's say, the United States.

00:18:16

Well, over the last long period there,

00:18:18

let's say 20 years, then we see that the costs

00:18:21

of food and drinks purchased in stores are

00:18:25

classified in total, that is, over 20

00:18:28

years they have grown there by less than 24%, despite the fact that

00:18:31

costs it is for

00:18:34

consumer goods there by 37

00:18:36

respectively for goods for

00:18:42

household appliances for furniture they

00:18:45

have grown there by 70 percent during this time it is

00:18:48

for travel entertainment almost

00:18:52

if our expenses now flow into

00:18:57

products This only says one thing that

00:19:01

the situation is becoming quite bad and

00:19:04

people they buy only the essentials,

00:19:08

how many people on issues are

00:19:11

necessary? In general, the situation

00:19:15

in the year, look, it’s absolutely correct,

00:19:18

what happened after

00:19:21

11-12 is actually a complete

00:19:24

absence of any economic growth, I

00:19:27

think the topic of the program I remembered that

00:19:32

I had my own article title 13 year

00:19:35

which was written in 13, and the joke was that

00:19:38

Moscow made a comparison between

00:19:41

2013 and 1913 and they say that we

00:19:48

will remember the year 13 for many more years, if decades, as such a

00:19:51

local maximum of everything that is

00:19:54

possible from then, in fact. This is

00:19:57

because we see that income

00:20:00

the economy is stagnating, in fact it is in

00:20:04

stagnation,

00:20:08

that is, yes, we are in a drift, we are

00:20:11

not striving to develop anywhere and

00:20:13

expect an increase in life now, well, absolutely.

00:20:17

You say that all

00:20:20

economic indicators have been falling since

00:20:22

2013, but there is wonderful news in Russia, it

00:20:25

seems that the share of the poor in

00:20:29

Russia Updated the historical minimum below the

00:20:32

poverty line for the first time since 92,

00:20:35

it turned out to be less than ten percent of

00:20:37

Russians. Please explain these are

00:20:39

some kind of crafty calculations by Rosstat

00:20:43

or is it really so, it

00:20:47

means there are two

00:20:50

nouns here, the first point

00:20:52

is that at the end of 21 they

00:20:57

also discussed

00:20:59

appeared in in the lexicon of Russian

00:21:02

social economists, the

00:21:04

poverty line is a

00:21:07

slightly

00:21:09

modified idea of a

00:21:14

minimum income,

00:21:17

the idea of a

00:21:19

traditional one,

00:21:22

but when it happened at the end of 21 years,

00:21:27

at one expense, the number of poor people in Russia was

00:21:31

unexpectedly smaller.

00:21:33

That is, it was clearly a very powerful

00:21:38

statistical one that helped show

00:21:42

that the situation was essentially

00:21:46

blind, as if two more events occurred

00:21:50

significantly important because in 22 and 23

00:21:58

budget salaries and pensions were indexed three times, if we take

00:22:00

pensions they were indexed first

00:22:03

by 8.6 percent, then they were

00:22:05

brought in in the summer

00:22:07

of 38, a situation is obtained in which the

00:22:11

total indexation amounted to 25

00:22:14

percent, last year’s inflation was an

00:22:16

official marriage 12 percent in

00:22:19

fact, that's why it happened purely

00:22:22

statistically,

00:22:24

it was made up of two indicators

00:22:27

from the fact that over the last 15 months

00:22:31

the indexation was much higher

00:22:34

than the real one, now the indexation will probably

00:22:37

slow down because the infection

00:22:39

indicators

00:22:40

will not distribute

00:22:42

money unnecessarily and then I think that the situation

00:22:46

will bottom out, but again, what is

00:22:48

very important to keep in mind here is that they say you

00:22:51

can just look, there are

00:22:56

well-known statistics

00:22:59

regarding the level of the number of poor people in the

00:23:01

Russian Federation

00:23:07

at that time and then it is a business that

00:23:10

has been steadily declining for many years, if we

00:23:12

assume we will look at the difference between the

00:23:15

level of poverty at the beginning of 21 years otherwise, and

00:23:19

March 23, then during this time, according to

00:23:23

supposedly official statistics from poverty,

00:23:27

we will compare this situation with some

00:23:30

period for which from poverty, also in

00:23:33

Russia, above 8 people, we will get that this is

00:23:36

approximately the period 2003 to 2007

00:23:39

then, according to official data from Rosstat 8.7

00:23:42

people left the status of the

00:23:45

poor in Russia over these years,

00:23:48

Russia's economic growth amounted to 31

00:23:51

percent, that is, this really

00:23:54

led then to an obvious

00:23:56

significant reduction in poverty, now

00:23:58

we have had no growth for the last three years and the

00:24:01

same indicators of poverty transformation.

00:24:03

Based on this, it seems to me that

00:24:07

not purely That is, if there is no growth and the

00:24:11

level of

00:24:13

reduction in the number of poor goes beyond the

00:24:17

indicators of the most successful years, this is work.

00:24:22

Well, I was amazed by

00:24:25

the indicator itself, here is the poverty line, which

00:24:27

last year was set at

00:24:30

13,545 rubles, don’t you think that this

00:24:33

indicator is simply monstrously underestimated

00:24:37

Well, for the sake of saying it,

00:24:41

I must say again that it may be

00:24:45

underestimated, but in any case, it

00:24:46

certainly naturally increased in this

00:24:49

comparison with the previous one. But this is a

00:24:51

significant increase now, attention is

00:24:56

12.6 percent if we see that the

00:24:59

figure has increased by 12.5 and indexation

00:25:03

only for pensioners, even more

00:25:09

indicators of poverty will of course decrease

00:25:12

because

00:25:13

income indexation goes faster than

00:25:16

increasing this limit

00:25:18

automatically then a simple

00:25:20

mathematical operation

00:25:21

decreases, but now I repeat

00:25:27

in Europe, not even in Ukraine, in Moldova there are no

00:25:32

minimum wages that would

00:25:34

fall in Russia

00:25:37

poverty level and minimum wage

00:25:39

and they cannot but be combined because, in

00:25:42

theory, the

00:25:44

minimum wage of a working

00:25:46

person should ensure at least

00:25:48

compliance with his level of poverty, that is,

00:25:50

I repeat once again. It seems to me that the topic, but

00:25:54

it is obvious, is the

00:25:56

artificial inventing of good

00:26:00

successful indicators.

00:26:02

Here’s another one about the artificial

00:26:03

inventing of successful indicators

00:26:06

good news in quotation marks

00:26:08

that are now being circulated by the Kremlin

00:26:10

media

00:26:11

RIA Novosti, with reference to

00:26:13

World Bank data, reported that Russia

00:26:16

has returned to the top ten

00:26:18

largest economies in the world for the first time since

00:26:22

2014, which made it possible to do this.

00:26:24

According to these calculations of the World Bank

00:26:27

and

00:26:29

Renault News, at the end of

00:26:31

2022, Russia produced goods and

00:26:34

services for almost two and a half trillion

00:26:37

dollars and took eighth place in the world,

00:26:40

therefore, the indicator and Well, as I already

00:26:42

said, the news was instantly stolen by the

00:26:46

Federal

00:26:47

Kremlin media, does the

00:26:51

Kremlin Propaganda embellish reality? What do

00:26:53

you think?

00:26:55

No,

00:26:57

in fact, look here what

00:27:00

turned out to be

00:27:01

absolutely simple magical effect

00:27:04

What does the world bank do

00:27:08

the level of different countries in two

00:27:11

dimensions? The first is the so-called

00:27:14

nominal exchange rate; the second will

00:27:17

come purchasing power.

00:27:19

This is what we are talking about now. This is

00:27:21

the calculation of the nominal exchange rate

00:27:24

that we see, taking into

00:27:29

account the enormous volatility

00:27:31

ruble which was at the beginning of the year,

00:27:33

taking into account the fact that in the summer it was

00:27:37

even lower compared to the beginning of

00:27:39

hostilities, the

00:27:42

average annual exchange rate of the ruble last

00:27:44

year will be approximately 61-

00:27:46

odd rubles per dollar,

00:27:48

68-odd rubles per dollar And when

00:27:51

was the last time When Russia was

00:27:54

this indicator of dozens of world

00:27:56

economies it was 14 in the fifteenth

00:27:58

year, why it fell out why it performed in 15

00:28:01

for one simple reason, the ruble

00:28:03

devalued from 38 there to 60,

00:28:08

that is, again in the fifteenth year of our

00:28:13

viewers, the rate was 61 now 8, that is,

00:28:18

it increased by 10 percent

00:28:21

inflation over these years, the accumulated current

00:28:24

amounted to 66

00:28:28

by 2/3 prices became higher than they were

00:28:31

before, of course, GDP is the calculation of

00:28:35

added value in current prices

00:28:38

grow accordingly, the

00:28:40

added value increases, maybe by 60

00:28:42

percent, maybe less than this is another

00:28:43

question, otherwise obviously not by 10 and this

00:28:47

means that the GDP of 2022, with the low exchange

00:28:51

rate

00:28:55

that we see, it

00:28:58

certainly increases the inflationary effect, it

00:29:00

leads to the fact that nominally the figure

00:29:03

is growing, and of course when

00:29:08

the GDP is more than 150 trillion rubles,

00:29:12

by only 60 you get two and a half,

00:29:13

which you couldn’t get in 21

00:29:18

75 is realistic in this case, the artificially

00:29:21

low exchange rate of last year with an

00:29:23

imitated increase,

00:29:27

it should be noted in fact that for some reason the

00:29:30

Russian leadership does not

00:29:32

say that in terms of GDP

00:29:37

purchasing power for Russians,

00:29:40

absolutely the Russian economy is in

00:29:42

6th place

00:29:44

officially and of course what will happen

00:29:48

promised that she would be in the top five

00:29:51

in any case,

00:29:54

which is now also successfully

00:29:58

glorified by propagandists. I honestly

00:30:01

don’t understand why there is such a big fuss about

00:30:03

this indicator, at least they could

00:30:06

say here that these abilities are generally in 6th

00:30:09

place, but in conclusion you can

00:30:11

note here that the IMF is already in the composition forecast for

00:30:15

2023 preliminary ranking How

00:30:23

much will it take to get back to the top ten as a

00:30:27

result of the extremely low artificially

00:30:30

low in the past Well, yes, but for some reason

00:30:34

the Kremlin for the

00:30:36

most part don’t talk about it

00:30:39

in their wonderful

00:30:40

notes I

00:30:44

also wanted to clarify, but

00:30:48

good goods and services produced two

00:30:51

and a half trillion dollars

00:30:53

What is the role of the Criminal Procedure Code itself here and

00:30:58

the production of ammunition there I don’t know

00:31:00

the construction of

00:31:01

fortifications in the

00:31:03

occupied territories

00:31:06

it is large Yes it is moderate in fact

00:31:10

because it is of course growing and

00:31:12

naturally the GDP

00:31:14

is supported by the fact that the state

00:31:17

invests large amounts of funds in the

00:31:19

defense industry structural

00:31:22

construction and so on, but in my

00:31:24

opinion, this situation

00:31:27

supports an additional one

00:31:30

or one and a half percent of GDP growth. But these

00:31:33

percentages would not have changed in this specific situation

00:31:36

with the ten

00:31:38

largest economies. If

00:31:42

support had not yet been support, it would have

00:31:46

occurred solely for monetary

00:31:48

reasons. for the depreciation of the exchange rate, as for

00:31:52

whether Russian

00:31:55

investments can be made while infrastructure Live the

00:31:57

economy, they can do this and,

00:32:00

in fact, the more the state

00:32:02

borrows and spends, and the

00:32:04

more it will be

00:32:07

if the GDP indicators are optimistic,

00:32:11

but I’ll tell you again, but still this is the

00:32:17

method that can lead to

00:32:20

serious overall growth, produce more

00:32:23

weapons, you can destroy more of some

00:32:25

objects in Ukraine, you can pay the

00:32:28

military, you can in the

00:32:35

region, but in any case, this is not

00:32:39

development

00:32:41

that is being carried out. It is precisely to

00:32:46

solve a specific problem in

00:32:49

this case, but in

00:32:52

the future we will see Tu again the same

00:32:55

problem that the 80s when the

00:32:57

bloated military-industrial complex in the event of the end of the war

00:33:01

no longer needs to purchase reserves resources

00:33:04

quantity

00:33:07

this is a very fleeting achievement it is

00:33:10

valid while it is going on

00:33:15

and

00:33:17

is no longer

00:33:20

another important news strong fires

00:33:22

in several regions of Russia at once there is

00:33:25

a little of our internal kitchen for

00:33:27

viewers I know that Vladislav Inozemtsev

00:33:30

was struck by the news from the governor of the

00:33:32

Kurgan region Vadim Shumkov, he

00:33:35

ordered payments to victims of

00:33:38

the fire and it’s very interesting that these

00:33:40

amounts that the Kurgan region

00:33:42

will pay from its budget, those who

00:33:45

partially lost property will receive 10,000 rubles each

00:33:47

and those who lost in the fire all their

00:33:50

property will receive 50,000 rubles

00:33:53

Vladislav your comment

00:33:56

But I was really shocked by the news

00:33:59

simply because there are two aspects

00:34:02

to it. First, we very

00:34:07

commonly believed that in Russia human

00:34:10

life because I have very low

00:34:12

compensation there for industrial

00:34:13

cataclysms for the

00:34:17

accident of which people they died, we all

00:34:18

know compensation of a million rubles for a

00:34:21

person’s life,

00:34:24

but what we see now is

00:34:27

not just to solve the problem, but simply

00:34:30

to make any gesture to

00:34:32

somehow silence it, because

00:34:34

look, either you need to compensate at the

00:34:38

replacement cost of houses,

00:34:40

exactly the same thing is being done, for example

00:34:48

quite often, but let’s say

00:34:53

that most of

00:34:56

us will cook seriously or there were

00:34:59

completely insignificant and quickly enough

00:35:02

without any problems the full cost

00:35:09

even Let there be this house for sale five years ago there

00:35:12

is a certain assessment for

00:35:15

which

00:35:16

destruction this amount is paid plus

00:35:20

what is very important that since

00:35:22

many were not satisfied with this kind of

00:35:24

payments, then a lot of people went to court

00:35:28

otherwise to try to get money for

00:35:31

state construction and many really

00:35:34

got it. Why Because it was very quickly

00:35:36

proven that the problems

00:35:39

were aggravated by the lack of normal

00:35:42

structures, it is all

00:35:44

the more clear that if

00:35:48

there are many normal years when

00:35:52

on the territory

00:35:53

of the European countries,

00:35:56

it is clear that local authorities are

00:35:58

responsible for maintaining

00:36:00

fire safety in forests,

00:36:01

including if such incidents occur. This is

00:36:04

clearly a miscalculation, not just an accident.

00:36:06

Some kind of

00:36:08

meteorite fell. Yes, this is a miscalculation of the authorities

00:36:10

because year after year these problems

00:36:13

are repeated and If only we had

00:36:16

practice American if in ours,

00:36:18

dealing not only with activists,

00:36:21

they were probably inundated with

00:36:27

even more money, but because they personally

00:36:31

are to blame for what

00:36:36

could happen.

00:36:39

But what they get from local authorities is

00:36:41

to prevent the spread of

00:36:43

fires; to have normal equipment to

00:36:46

fight them. there it would be possible

00:36:50

in the forest so that the fire does not cross them, but

00:36:53

these are technologies that

00:36:54

experts know better than you and me. But this

00:36:56

should be done, by and large, what

00:36:59

we are seeing is once again only summer

00:37:01

has begun, spring, even we are already seeing how

00:37:04

fires are starting, they will appear the

00:37:06

whole summer was

00:37:09

especially strong two years ago and

00:37:12

still the main problem is people in power are

00:37:15

ready to do anything, it does

00:37:18

n’t matter to them and that means everything will

00:37:22

continue and convincing the governor to pay

00:37:25

more

00:37:27

can and is possible, but it’s just the very fact

00:37:30

that they count 10 thousand rubles

00:37:33

enough Yes, this is for the case of partial

00:37:36

loss of property, let’s say If your

00:37:38

houses weren’t completely burned down, let’s say

00:37:42

something else Well, I don’t know what kind of world people

00:37:45

live in, but the truth is impossible to understand,

00:37:47

continuing the topic of compensation, this time

00:37:50

international Belgium transferred

00:37:52

200 million euros of income received from

00:37:56

investment to Ukraine frozen Russian

00:37:58

assets, on the air of our program you

00:38:02

just proposed such a solution back in the fall, and

00:38:04

now

00:38:06

European countries have finally begun to

00:38:08

implement it. Do

00:38:14

Western countries still have similar solutions in stock that

00:38:16

will allow Ukraine to receive a

00:38:19

permanent income that does not depend on the

00:38:22

political situation in Western countries,

00:38:26

but I think that this topic needs to be

00:38:29

continued, that is, you know, Belgium

00:38:31

actually transferring 200 million to Ukraine,

00:38:33

these funds that

00:38:36

were formed from the fact that the money was

00:38:39

frozen in the Russian Federation were

00:38:42

simply in the bank accounts of those companies that

00:38:45

had it frozen, let’s say

00:38:55

I think that,

00:38:59

apparently, the money is Russian

00:39:02

Russian frozen when

00:39:05

Russia will have to give it up Because I don’t think that

00:39:07

the War will end the ventilation of Russia in

00:39:16

1991 when the international organization

00:39:19

and he approves the conditions for actually leaving

00:39:22

Adam from Kuwait and asks him for

00:39:26

compensation and over the radio in relation to

00:39:29

will pay until they pay, I think

00:39:31

that this In this case, such an option for the

00:39:33

development of relations between Russia is impossible. And it

00:39:39

will not be possible to confiscate this money without a UN decision or without Russia’s capitulation,

00:39:42

and therefore, in fact, it seemed to me that I actually

00:39:44

wrote Sorry, in the fall this

00:39:47

text I proposed such a measure. I believe

00:39:50

that it is necessary to understand as actively as possible

00:39:53

what the

00:39:55

investment horizons are. at least a couple of years

00:39:58

because I think that there is still about

00:40:00

a year there and until the end of this year the war will

00:40:02

continue there for at least a year and a half there

00:40:04

will be negotiations then it will be possible to

00:40:07

discuss the lifting of the sanctions That is, as long as

00:40:09

this money returns to Russia

00:40:15

at today’s yield on planting

00:40:17

securities then they are, of course, quite high

00:40:20

for the American ones, about three and a half

00:40:24

percent.

00:40:26

But for the Bunds it is two and a half percent,

00:40:29

but interest rates are now

00:40:31

obviously at their maximum. They

00:40:34

will decline in the coming year. The American economy

00:40:36

cannot survive with such rates of

00:40:38

525, that is, accordingly, a decrease in

00:40:41

the rate will mean an increase in the

00:40:43

exchange rate the value of the security Therefore,

00:40:47

if now all the money that

00:40:49

is under arrest in the Russian Federation is used to

00:40:50

buy assets,

00:40:56

it is obvious that in two years they will

00:40:59

not seriously increase, I think that at least they

00:41:01

will add 10-14 percent on their own and

00:41:05

will bring two more coupon payments.

00:41:07

Accordingly, for the company 7 percent

00:41:09

USA

00:41:11

average income

00:41:13

I think significantly higher than 20 percent,

00:41:17

this is from 300 billion 50 60 billion

00:41:22

dollars

00:41:24

Ukraine has already received a big increase, but

00:41:27

it can be obtained not just from the

00:41:30

fact that the money is in the account Yes, and it

00:41:31

brings a meager penny income What if

00:41:34

it is an active investment

00:41:36

policy which assumes that in the

00:41:39

event of the end of the peace war and the lifting of

00:41:41

sanctions, the money will be returned, but the

00:41:43

income is never returned because

00:41:46

any

00:41:47

assets it eats

00:41:51

means

00:41:57

eight years have ended, some problems have ended.

00:42:00

You can take as much as 100 million

00:42:02

dollars at current prices, no one will. That’s why

00:42:05

you can absolutely calmly

00:42:08

invest

00:42:11

Correctly, I understand that 200 million

00:42:14

euros This is now a relatively small

00:42:16

amount, but this is just the beginning and in the future

00:42:19

these payments will become larger, most likely

00:42:26

the task is true. But the fact that the amount will become

00:42:28

larger for now does not

00:42:31

mean anything because the Europeans have not come to

00:42:34

any agreement and no strategy

00:42:36

regarding investment, we are talking about the fact

00:42:38

that now transfer the money

00:42:40

that has been generated simply by

00:42:42

implementing bank interest and

00:42:44

Apparently, in six months or

00:42:46

quarters it will give another

00:42:48

approximately comparable amount, also

00:42:50

bank interest. But

00:42:53

these investments need to be invested,

00:42:58

which now looks very good. What if

00:43:01

will be done then, yes, we can say that for

00:43:03

several years Ukraine has had a

00:43:05

stable source of income in the amount of

00:43:07

somewhere around 20-25 billion rubles. This,

00:43:11

of course, did not

00:43:13

work out that way, but it is still quite

00:43:16

significant; this is 12 14 percent of the

00:43:21

Ukrainian

00:43:24

large sum;

00:43:26

we are continuing the review of the world agenda;

00:43:29

USA Jennette Yerwin

00:43:32

warns that problems associated

00:43:36

with the

00:43:37

lack of measures to establish a new

00:43:40

ceiling on the national debt could lead the United States to a

00:43:43

constitutional crisis

00:43:45

failure here Ms. Ellen in general what is

00:43:48

happening with the national debt in America now

00:43:50

Tell us of course

00:44:13

and the borrower's reimbursement of these means of communication in

00:44:17

printed dollars that are even

00:44:20

required next what there is a problem in

00:44:23

both of them. Honestly speaking, I

00:44:24

constantly hear that this kind of

00:44:28

conflict arises. I don’t fully understand

00:44:30

where the idea of accelerating

00:44:33

this ceiling came from, but if we look at

00:44:35

most European countries, we will see

00:44:38

that there is no such law. In principle, there is

00:44:40

no flow for a long time in Germany

00:44:44

several governments come, issue

00:44:47

public debt, sell

00:44:48

additional bonds and spend

00:44:51

this money

00:44:54

in the fight against the epidemic with the support of the

00:44:56

population in

00:44:58

the States, we see a strange approach that we will

00:45:01

increase the public debt. What needs to be done? To be

00:45:04

honest, I don’t really understand. It

00:45:06

seems to me that this is an artificially created

00:45:08

problem that is constantly being replicated.

00:45:10

this tradition of

00:45:14

the need to approve it for a long time It

00:45:17

was possible, of course,

00:45:18

200 million dollars

00:45:25

Apparently this is some element of the complex

00:45:28

practically of the political current of the

00:45:31

economic United States

00:45:33

happens every year when it goes,

00:45:37

say now as a result of this

00:45:40

political economic bargaining,

00:45:42

apparently we can predict that this

00:45:45

ceiling threshold will last for a long time

00:45:49

will the US begin to have problems

00:45:51

servicing this debt and will this not lead

00:45:54

to problems for the dollar? a

00:46:13

fast

00:46:16

natural government will now

00:46:18

pay a higher yield, but at the same time, the

00:46:21

Federal Reserve rate

00:46:24

today is significantly higher

00:46:27

than the real yield on

00:46:30

Treasuries because it

00:46:33

will not serve the

00:46:39

rate, it reduces the funding of banks And

00:46:42

thereby

00:46:44

the opportunity to criticize the economy too much, the

00:46:49

task of the

00:46:51

Federal Reserve is

00:46:54

people have less money spends less in your pocket

00:46:58

has the ability to grow quickly

00:47:01

in principle a reasonable plan is of course fraught with a

00:47:05

possible slowdown in growth but the

00:47:07

classic additional plan has the right to

00:47:09

exist they are implementing it now but I

00:47:11

repeat once again

00:47:13

the rate was 0 then federal bonds are

00:47:19

7 percent per annum if in your case

00:47:21

the yield was higher than the yield on

00:47:24

delivery The Fed is now the opposite situation,

00:47:28

now the yield on summer bonds is three and a

00:47:30

half Fed rate 525 Federal

00:47:33

Reserve if some bank needs help

00:47:35

and support, it will fund its

00:47:37

supplies 525 But this does not mean that the

00:47:41

Federal Government is borrowing so

00:47:43

expensively, that is, the market is already reacting to the fact

00:47:46

that the rates are too high as for

00:47:50

the dollar, look I honestly

00:47:56

the better

00:47:59

because what is the greatness of the house as a

00:48:02

reserve currency very many economists

00:48:04

including our most famous Gurus in the

00:48:07

good sense of the word Yes, I don’t understand

00:48:09

but quite competent system

00:48:12

programmers

00:48:13

influence for a long time it appears because in

00:48:17

it prices are calculated on the oil market and

00:48:20

by the fact that it is one of the

00:48:22

largest reserve currencies, and so on.

00:48:25

In my opinion, the most important function

00:48:27

is that it has concluded a

00:48:30

huge number of debt agreements in the world

00:48:32

and, accordingly, as soon as

00:48:36

a crisis begins in the world, the people who

00:48:39

borrowed at the banks, let’s say there is

00:48:50

a bird, and this moment can

00:48:55

be seen very clearly as the

00:48:58

dollar grows, even departure comes in

00:49:02

2008, the dollar exchange rate is growing very quickly

00:49:05

before the crisis in 2007, the euro

00:49:08

cost 1 dollar and 60 cents when the

00:49:16

real estate rate reached approximately

00:49:18

1.15, that is, it rose in price

00:49:21

approximately great importance in

00:49:24

conditions when America itself will

00:49:25

Why Because investors are trying to

00:49:28

buy in order to pay off

00:49:31

their roads and pay fines And now

00:49:34

we see that over the past six months the

00:49:38

dollar exchange rate has decreased significantly and

00:49:41

will decrease significantly in relation to the euro because

00:49:44

for a long time it was

00:49:45

98 cents Let's get for the euro now it’s already 10

00:49:50

what does this mean that the world economy

00:49:53

globally perceives the situation as

00:49:55

improving the risks are decreasing you can

00:49:58

switch to other currencies and play in

00:50:00

them Where the profitability is higher But you don’t need to

00:50:03

hold on because a disaster is

00:50:04

coming summer singers Therefore I think

00:50:06

that

00:50:08

the ceiling will be raised for a long time

00:50:10

loans will continue all federal The

00:50:14

Federal Treasury is not

00:50:17

real investors, these are not foreign

00:50:19

banks. This is native, that is,

00:50:23

most of

00:50:26

the system, if the Ministry of Finance pays it

00:50:30

income, then next year a significant

00:50:33

part of the income according to the relevant law.

00:50:37

I don’t see a problem here and it takes a

00:50:42

long time to come up with a constant confirmation of the bar.

00:50:48

Vladislav Thank you for this, as always,

00:50:52

brilliant overview of the main Russian and

00:50:56

world economic events We are waiting for you

00:50:58

next week Thank you

00:51:04

[music]

00:51:08

It was the uncompromising Vladislav

00:51:11

Inozemtsev in the program rules of the game my

00:51:14

name is Kirill Sedov I again ask you

00:51:16

to like Subscribe to our

00:51:19

channel write a

00:51:21

minimum of comments five words and also share this

00:51:24

video with your friends on social networks, all this

00:51:27

helps us In our work, I

00:51:30

will see you on Thursday in the trumpet program bye

00:51:34

[music]

Description:

— В Москву на празднование Дня Победы приехали семь иностранных лидеров. На какие рычаги пришлось нажать Путину, чтобы эти визиты состоялись, и при чем здесь Китай? — Основатель ЧВК «Вагнер» Евгений Пригожин впервые заявил, что его бойцы готовы оставить боевые позиции. Возможно ли что вслед за Пригожиным начнет саботировать приказы и армия? — По данным Росстата, малоимущих в России стало меньше. Почему этим данным нельзя доверять? — Спровоцирует ли с ситуация с госдолгом конституционный кризис в США и что будет с долларом? На эти вопросы в программе «Правила игры» отвечает экономист и социолог Владислав ИНОЗЕМЦЕВ. Ведущий: Кирилл СЕДОВ. Таймкоды: 00:00 Начало 00:30 Парад Победы — почему к Путину кто-то приехал 03:10 Репутационные риски для Пашиняна и Токаева 05:00 Пригожин. Будет ли саботаж в войсках? 07:40 Система Пригожина сожрет, а Бахмут отобьют украинцы 08:15 Почему нет боеприпасов 10:22 В Украине россияне воюют за деньги 14:45 Россияне тратят половину денег на еду 20:11 Доля бедных и мощный статистический мухлеж 24:25 13 545 рублей — граница бедности в России 26:18 Почему Россия в десятке крупнейших экономик лишь номинально 33:20 Погорельцам в Курганской области выплатят по 10 000 рублей 35:10 «В каком мире эти люди живут?!» 37:51 Бельгия отдаст Украине 200 млн евро 43:30 Что с госдолгом США? 47:40 Чем сильнее кризис — тем доллар крепче 51:08 Финал ШЕНДЕРОВИЧ: Декларация антивоенной оппозиции. «Миротворец». Дело Блиновской. «История» от Мединского https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EDtce7BMsvc ИНОЗЕМЦЕВ: Си велит Путину отвести войска. Срок службы увеличат. Блиновскую не жалко. Бюджет и юани https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MMu0DhRK9uQ ХОДОРКОВСКИЙ и ПАСТУХОВ: Россия между внешней и внутренней войной. Почему Запад все время опаздывал https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OoSkD7m-DQs АЛЕКСАШЕНКО: «Национализация» для Сечина. Цены растут. Кадровый кризис. Почему увольняют в «Билайне» https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-3cH8yGX1CQ КРУТИХИН: «Газпром» поставляет «пушечное мясо». Сечин захватил активы Uniper. Цены на бензин https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2npFyAjOhFI ПАСТУХОВ: Путин все ближе к Сталину? Кто подсказал начать войну? Трагедия в Умани Путин все ближе к Сталину? Кто подсказал начать войну? Трагедия в Умани АСЛАНЯН: Повестка Путину спугнула Volkswagen. Инвалидки «Автотора». Как наказали бы Шварценеггера https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bd42u_c6a_o ============================= Блог Михаила Ходорковского: https://www.youtube.com/user/khodorkovskyru =============================

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