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Download "Расправа или компромисс? | Элиты после Путина (English subtitles) @Max_Katz"

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Table of contents

0:00
КОМПРОМИССЫ РАДИ ВЫЖИВАНИЯ
2:19
УГОЛОВКА ИЛИ АМНИСТИЯ?
12:02
РАЦИОНАЛЬНЫЙ ВЫБОР
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Кац
Максим Кац
Россия
элиты
окружение
Путин
олигархи
бизнес
крупный
Альфа Банк
санкции
подписи
Волков
Венедиктов
скандал
расследование
ФБК
Авен
Фридман
Дерипаска
Усманов
Абрамович
Собянин
Патрушев
Греф
что будет после
война
СВО
специальная
военная операция
президент
Украина
Зеленский
противостояние
мобилизация
Варламов
Пивоваров
Редакция
News
Шихман
Шульман
Собчак
Дудь
Певчих
Мордашов
Потанин
Тимченко
Прохоров
Федун
выборы
новый президент
обновление
правительство
политика
Общество
путин
россия
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00:00:05
(a prominent opposition politician and political prisoner),
00:00:07
urged me to talk about the dialog between independent political activists and Putin’s elites.
00:00:15
And not only just the elites, but everyone who’s involved in Putin’s Russia political process.
00:00:21
Today, we’ll talk about the practical side of intolerance. The scandal involving Alexei Venediktov
00:00:26
(former editor-in-chief of the Echo of Moscow radio station) and ACF (Navalny’s organization),
00:00:30
among other consequences, exposed how unaware a good chunk of the public is when it comes
00:00:34
to the attributes of Putin’s regime. And this unawareness is harmful to us all.
00:00:37
If we look at the nature of Venediktov’s relationships with the Government of Moscow through
00:00:42
the lens of ethical standards of leading Western media, it is atrocious indeed, and justifies the scandal it stirred.
00:00:49
It’s not even about the alleged excess profits.
00:00:52
It’s about the conflict of interest.
00:00:55
An editor-in-chief of Moscow’s major media outlet simply shouldn’t have commercial, friendly,
00:01:01
or family relationships with Moscow’s mayor.
00:01:05
The only relationship they can afford is a purely professional one. The one between a journalist and a newsmaker.
00:01:11
Again, it’s not about the profits. The thing is, any personal relationship affects what you do.
00:01:16
You don’t release a buzzworthy investigative exposé, only to casually smash a brekkie
00:01:22
with its main target the very next morning.
00:01:24
We realize, though, that in Putin’s Russia, the mechanism is exactly the opposite.
00:01:32
An editor-in-chief of a major Moscow-based media outlet frankly has to be as close as possible
00:01:37
to all of their newsmakers, from the Presidential Administration to the Government of Moscow.
00:01:42
Because they aren’t just newsmakers — they are the ones who can destroy the said editor and their media
00:01:49
at the flick of a switch.
00:01:50
But it’s slightly more complicated when you deal not with an abstract editor
00:01:55
but with a person you regularly nurse whiskey with.
00:01:59
Today, I’ll try to explain why we have to cut people some slack due to the reality of the regime.
00:02:06
We shouldn’t do it out of pity or personal affinities.
00:02:13
We should do it because there’s no one else who would help us build the future together.
00:02:19
PRISON TERM OR AMNESTY?
00:02:24
Putin’s regime leans on one fundamental pillar.
00:02:29
The entire top-1,000 of Russia’s officials, the overwhelming majority of Forbes-listed Russian billionaires,
00:02:35
people who wield power and financial resources — they are all in breach of the Russian law.
00:02:41
Let’s dream up. Imagine tomorrow they’re asked questions.
00:02:44
Where do those palaces, banks, factories, yachts, and oil rigs come from?
00:02:49
Under what circumstances did they take over a company, receive a state-sponsored soft loan,
00:02:53
or win a government tender facing no competition?
00:02:57
How did they pay taxes, evaluate their assets, which fibs did they tell their shareholders,
00:03:02
and how did they vie for the markets?
00:03:05
Honest answers to those questions would mean surrender to court.
00:03:09
And it’s a feature, not a bug, mind you. It’s all done deliberately.
00:03:14
There must be no legitimate big property or legal statuses. There must be no innocent high-ranking officials.
00:03:27
The system’s rulebook must go directly against the law. That makes everyone personally dependent on Putin.
00:03:35
They have to understand one thing: if Putin gets up on the wrong side of the bed or he’s replaced by anyone else,
00:03:41
a simple flick of the killswitch that put them above the law would be enough for the elites to lose it all:
00:03:48
their status, assets, and freedom.
00:03:51
Even fleeing abroad wouldn’t help. For they wouldn’t be prosecuted for insulting His Imperial Majesty
00:03:57
or for civil protests — they’d be prosecuted for trite monkey business that has become the Russian elites’ lifestyle.
00:04:06
Is such loyalty a sign of immaturity?
00:04:09
In between your personal Windsor Castle in a suburban Moscow gated community and solitary
00:04:12
confinement involving life without parole, there’s only one man who’ll inevitably die,
00:04:15
and may possibly go nuts or end up incapacitated.
00:04:19
You may be driven around in an armored Mercedes and escorted by bodyguards, but your life and freedom
00:04:23
are tied to a tiny blood clot in someone else's artery.
00:04:27
Such behavior is undoubtedly immature.
00:04:30
If those people acted as rational adults, they’d see the obvious consequences of their actions,
00:04:35
and our country wouldn’t be where it is now.
00:04:39
As of 2023, however, a “what have you done, dimwits” rhetoric won’t bear any fruit.
00:04:51
We’re talking about the people who, on the one hand, understand — they must understand — where we are headed.
00:04:58
They realize the war won’t be over while Putin is in office, but it can’t last forever, either.
00:05:04
Changes are only a matter of time, medium term at worst.
00:05:08
On the other hand, these people possess enough resources to catalyze these changes or drag them down.
00:05:15
That makes those people the main audience of our discussions.
00:05:20
We may tell them, “Once we seize the power, we’ll hang y’all, you bastards!” But that’s what Putin tells them.
00:05:29
They’ll hang y’all, you bastards, so stick around. I’m your last resort.
00:05:34
Or we may tell them something completely different.
00:05:36
We may use the example of the Georgian reformation of the early 2000s.
00:05:41
Prior to the reforms, roughly 100% of Georgia’s adult population were complicit in tax evasion.
00:05:47
Some people and companies did it on purpose; others simply didn’t know the taxation system was in place.
00:05:54
The same went for corruption.
00:05:56
Any interaction with the authorities, be it a police officer, a school principal, or a minister, involved greasing their hands.
00:06:04
That was the premise. The new government could have said,
00:06:08
“We’ll recall all your misdeeds in the 1990s, charge you all that you owe, and lock up everyone who bailed on taxes.”
00:06:18
Such reforms would result in the new government’s collapse within a week.
00:06:23
The team of then-president Saakashvili, headed by Kakha Bendukidze, chose a different path.
00:06:27
“New year, new life,” they announced. “We’ve modified tax legislation, passed bills against corruption,
00:06:38
so now we all abide by the law.
00:06:41
Whatever sins you had in the past, forget about it. Come to the tax authorities, grab your folder,
00:06:49
and either burn it or frame it. We don’t care.” Quite literally so.
00:06:54
That’s what happened in Georgia, and if we want some positive changes in Russia,
00:07:01
we realistically have to adopt a similar approach.
00:07:03
We’d have to say, “That’s right, dear ministers, oligarchs, deputies, and senators.
00:07:09
Your past calls for lengthy prison terms, no doubt.
00:07:13
Most of your property is acquired in such ways and circumstances that any claims to its legitimacy is a joke.”
00:07:23
But we understand that you followed the proposed rules.
00:07:27
Breaking the law wasn’t your prime target, it was a by-product of your position in the system.
00:07:32
And we aren’t bloodthirsty, we just want to sit down and ponder our future together,
00:07:38
for which we basically have two options.
00:07:40
Option one. You do nothing, and enjoy your palaces, private jets, and yachts.
00:07:45
You espouse a delusion that Putin is immortal, he’ll ninja his way out of any situation,
00:07:50
and some miracle will keep your lifestyle.
00:07:54
You may survive in this condition until some inevitable end, political or physical, which wouldn’t be much different to you.
00:08:01
You’ll enter the future under unpredictable conditions.
00:08:07
The state of the country, its new ruler and the new policies won’t have anything to do with you.
00:08:15
Option two. You work for the future to come sooner, and arrange its advent on your conditions.
00:08:22
You may have to wave goodbye to some of your assets, pay a sort of privatization tax,
00:08:28
and endure the audit of your activities under Putin.
00:08:33
But that’s it. No prosecution to those who weren’t directly involved in warmongering and war crimes.
00:08:40
No jail, no restrictions, and no bankruptcy.
00:08:44
All the assets remained after the audit and taxes — more than you can spend in hundreds of lives — it’s all yours.
00:08:52
You won’t be subjected to remand prison hopping, house arrests, and other Putin’s tricks.
00:09:00
Your lawyers and accountants will spend some time with governmental lawyers and accountants,
00:09:06
suss out the amount of money you owe to the state, and that’s it.
00:09:11
You’ll likely be barred from government service. I’ll likely have to pay quite a fortune.
00:09:19
But all you’ll have left won’t depend on the current elected president or parliament’s configuration.
00:09:26
All the estate, cars, factories, and bank accounts will be all yours. You’ll be able to pass it down to your children.
00:09:34
Throughout human history, the elites, those who had something to lose, were the main beneficiaries of property
00:09:39
rights protection institutions.
00:09:42
Even if you amassed your fortune by breaking the law, you wish the law, written in stone and supported by the court,
00:09:48
to protect your treasures.
00:09:51
The law that won’t die of old age, wage a war, or inflict economic sanctions.
00:09:56
You, like no one else, understand it.
00:09:58
That’s why you siphoned your money off to the U.K. and Cyprus, where the law protects your property.
00:10:06
That’s what we’ll have, too. After you agree to play by the new rules and pay the compensatory tax,
00:10:15
we’ll pass a constitutional amendment to ensure your rights.
00:10:19
This isn’t a discussion about pure good and pure evil, this isn’t a witch hunt or branding Putin’s puppets.
00:10:27
Nor is it a passionate revolutionary spiel.
00:10:30
It’s quite a rational proposal: you rather wait for an unavoidable end or work for the future on your own terms.
00:10:38
Judging by the Russian oligarchs’ activity abroad, we can tell the elites are down with the second option.
00:10:43
They are ready to sacrifice parts of their assets for what’s left to become their property.
00:10:49
Real property, respectable property, property that no one strives to confiscate as an offshoot of Putin’s regime.
00:10:58
The problem is, no one is eager to take their money, even when it comes to supporting Ukraine.
00:11:05
It goes without saying that everyone directly involved in starting the war, those who committed war crimes,
00:11:13
those who promoted it in propaganda — all of them have to face punishment.
00:11:18
And for us, citizens of Russia, it’s preferable if the war criminals will answer
00:11:23
to the reformed national court instead of an abstract Hague tribunal.
00:11:26
Every war crime will have to be investigated. Everyone who murdered or tortured Ukrainians will have to be caught.
00:11:33
Every ruble spent on the war will have to be tracked. It won’t matter if it came from a state or personal fund.
00:11:40
It’ll have to be done not only to incarcerate dangerous people for all their crimes.
00:11:46
It’ll have to be done to spark nation-wide reflection and comprehension of the events.
00:11:53
Our prime objective after the war will be ensuring it’ll never happen again, not in this generation,
00:11:58
not when those who witnessed the defeat will come of age.
00:12:02
RATIONAL CHOICE
00:12:07
Good news is, if we set aside soldiers and officers who committed crimes at the battlefield and occupied territories,
00:12:15
if we count only the elites, the number of trials will be measured in a few dozens.
00:12:21
Not even hundreds, let alone thousands.
00:12:26
Those will be the ones who committed real crimes that resulted in real casualties.
00:12:32
And those won’t be military tribunals, they’ll be real trials, with attorneys, legal proceedings, fair investigations and sentences.
00:12:44
The rest have no reason to fear the changes and not to contribute to them.
00:12:54
Moreover, the more these people stall, the more they believe in Putin’s phantom luck,
00:13:00
the more power is accumulated by those who made themselves during the war,
00:13:04
the more prominent the war’s economic, social, and criminal consequences —
00:13:09
the higher the chance to see those who aren’t inclined to negotiations in the vanguard of the changes.
00:13:14
Not the liberals, quite the opposite.
00:13:17
Not those who’d be bothered with fair trials and haggling the compensations to the country’s budget.
00:13:25
Those who shoot first, ask questions later.
00:13:28
It may seem impossible, but we’ve seen a lot of impossible things happen within the last year.
00:13:37
Over time, your positions don’t strengthen, and your property doesn’t become more legitimate.
00:13:43
Over time, the situation gets worse in an unpredictable way.
00:13:47
We can’t tell where the point of no return is, when peaceful transformations in Russia cease to be possible.
00:13:58
In 2021, you may have considered the future to never come.
00:14:03
That the sluggish status quo you habitually benefited from will last for decades. That the beautiful moment is everlasting.
00:14:11
In reality, the new Russia is already here.
00:14:14
It’s the Russia that has hundreds of thousand veterans of the new war, where crime rates are skyrocketing already.
00:14:20
Soon enough, the consequences of the war will combine with each other, and the effects will be exponential.
00:14:27
Soon enough, the redistribution of property may be orchestrated not by Ph.D.
00:14:32
holders but by those who mastered the art of headshots.
00:14:37
What would be your leverage? A selfie with Putin?
00:14:42
The tough part is, we have to convey these simple truths not only to a simpatico crowd,
00:14:47
not only to the political and business elite around Putin that has a relatively positive reputation outside of that circle.
00:14:51
We have to tell the same thing to hands-down repulsive characters.
00:14:56
We have to tell Deripaska (Putin’s oligarch):
00:14:58
Dear Oleg, nothing in your life will change for the worse after Putin’s gone.
00:15:04
You’ll snap up a yacht triple the size of your confiscated one, and travel the sanctions-free world.
00:15:10
Do you miss Nice? You’re welcome. Enter the U.S. or London as you enter your own palace.
00:15:15
Speaking of which, do you want a new palace in the Moscow Region? Knock yourself out! And you’ll own it.
00:15:20
Your accountant will negotiate the amount of money you owe to the state.
00:15:29
Out of your $3 billion, you’ll only have $1 billion left. So what? Back in 2011, you were formally worth $11 billion.
00:15:37
But the last billion you have will be yours, and no one will ever take it from you.
00:15:43
But you may sit out until there are millions, not hundreds of thousands, of veterans out there,
00:15:48
who know a thing or two about killing people.
00:15:51
And they’ll wonder who plundered Russia to the condition we were forced to fight, butt naked.
00:15:56
There’ll be no room for negotiations then, but you may be allowed to pick a street light pole for your noose.
00:16:02
That’s what Putin tells his elites: we’re in the same boat, we be of one blood, ye and I.
00:16:08
If it comes to hanging or firing squads, we’re in this together.
00:16:13
And to those who want to come clean, there’s a file in FSB (KGB successor)
00:16:17
for each one of you that would be enough for life imprisonment. Win or lose, you can’t get rid of me.
00:16:23
And our answer to this must be, “Yes you can!” We’re perfectly aware what conditions you lived and worked in.
00:16:30
We aren’t going to pretend that you’ve lived in the U.K. for the last 32 years.
00:16:36
We’ll present your FSB file wrapped with a fancy ribbon, so in your legal palace you may cackle over
00:16:43
the footage of your young self hunching down under the pressure of a hundred-pound bribe in cash.
00:16:49
You want to protect what you own. We need a peaceful country with functional political and legal institutions.
00:16:56
Our motives may differ, but we want the same thing.
00:17:02
You have no option to sit it out: the situation is worsening rapidly.
00:17:06
You have a choice between the sooner future on your conditions, which requires supporting politicians like us,
00:17:14
and waiting for the end, where your perspectives are grim and the luxury of choice is unlikely.
00:17:23
Such manifestos impact the elites.
00:17:25
They make them wonder, “Blow me sideways, I’m in the sea of crap, and Putin isn’t a beacon here.”
00:17:33
The opposite narrative is comparing Putin’s elites to the most righteous ones —
00:17:38
a comparison that can’t and never will be in their favor — and threatening them with hell on earth for their disparity.
00:17:45
Such approach sparks another thought, “With Putin, I’m in crap, but with these guys,
00:17:51
I’m six feet under. I'll have the former.” And that does nothing to make the beautiful Russia of the future any more tangible.
00:18:01
See you tomorrow!

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