Download "НЕКРАСОВ: Когда у Путина закончатся деньги на войну. Доллара по 200 не будет. Набиуллина. Мигранты"
%3Aformat(webp)%2Fi.ytimg.com%252Fvi_webp%252FM2kONgfKCJI%252Fmaxresdefault.webp&w=1139&q=75)
Table of contents
Similar videos from our catalog
%3Aformat(webp)%2Fi.ytimg.com%252Fvi%252F21QChVmU0r8%252Fmaxresdefault.jpg&w=1139&q=75)
%3Aformat(webp)%2Fi.ytimg.com%252Fvi_webp%252F7ce0zGiqyAw%252Fmaxresdefault.webp&w=1139&q=75)
%3Aformat(webp)%2Fi.ytimg.com%252Fvi_webp%252FHMHiw9Qhz9g%252Fmaxresdefault.webp&w=1139&q=75)
%3Aformat(webp)%2Fi.ytimg.com%252Fvi_webp%252FRhwJoE-Vrug%252Fmaxresdefault.webp&w=1139&q=75)
%3Aformat(webp)%2Fi.ytimg.com%252Fvi_webp%252FpyjLCzzbcGc%252Fmaxresdefault.webp&w=1139&q=75)
%3Aformat(webp)%2Fi.ytimg.com%252Fvi_webp%252Fsc-Go8rGCpQ%252Fmaxresdefault.webp&w=1139&q=75)
Video tags
Subtitles
Russian
00:00:00
if we consider the war on the00:00:01
scale that is going on in00:00:03
24, then such a war can be00:00:04
waged indefinitely, the Russian00:00:07
economic bloc of the government00:00:08
is one of the best in the world, many00:00:10
things Well, how would they later be included in00:00:12
economic history textbooks,00:00:14
industry and GDP always grew00:00:16
during the war you will have to pay for all this00:00:17
When the war is over, but nevertheless00:00:20
increase the scale by two or three times and00:00:22
now they can drag this war on for00:00:23
quite a long00:00:28
time [music]00:00:31
I am absolutely glad to welcome all00:00:33
viewers of the Khodorkovsky Live channel This is a00:00:35
program inhale-exhale My name is Renard00:00:37
Diev Today is Tuesday 17:00 and before00:00:40
we move on to the conversation with an interesting00:00:42
guest, I will ask you, our dear00:00:45
viewers, to like this video and00:00:46
subscribe to the Khodorkovsky Live channel00:00:48
if for some reason you00:00:50
still have not subscribed to us, we have already more than 200:00:52
million people, a whole army of goodness and00:00:55
justice Let's inhale and00:00:57
exhale together, firstly because it's00:00:59
a little simpler and secondly because00:01:01
at least Let's go together more fun00:01:04
[music]00:01:08
So today we have economist00:01:11
Dmitry Nekrasov with us Thank you for taking the time00:01:13
and becoming GOST of our today's program00:01:18
Hello Lately we have been00:01:20
constantly trying to make some kind of00:01:22
forecasts. I understand that you are not Kasandra or00:01:24
Vanga. But nevertheless, after those00:01:27
events that marked the beginning of this00:01:31
terrible tragic spring of 2024, I00:01:34
mean the pseudo elections of Vladimir00:01:36
Putin and the ones that followed them terrorist attacks in00:01:39
Moscow cancer00:01:41
inho they became a kind of starting point from00:01:45
which Chiva Our new future and00:01:47
forecasts are being made politically actively00:01:50
economic forecasts seem to be00:01:52
missing when00:01:58
they say it’s not bad for example in the00:02:03
economy Well, you listed two events: the terrorist00:02:06
attack in Crocus and the presidential00:02:08
elections I think that Of course the terrorist attack itself is,00:02:11
as it were, a little Can be used to00:02:13
tighten the economic screws What00:02:15
is called and But only if as00:02:18
repression against some individual00:02:20
companies Well, there and the transfer of ownership00:02:22
of them to Well, some power players and00:02:26
that’s it in general, the event is most likely not00:02:28
from the economic sphere, but the00:02:31
presidential election, of course, it is clear that the story is,00:02:34
let’s say, with an increase in taxes, which00:02:35
obviously will now be there, there is00:02:38
no doubt about it. Well, before the elections it00:02:42
was not very convenient, that is, it is clear that00:02:44
this kind of thing, this kind of00:02:46
unpopular measures are like the rule00:02:48
is postponed after the elections, and00:02:50
accordingly, I do not have the slightest00:02:52
doubt that the00:03:00
scale of the campaign is not yet entirely clear, but the00:03:03
direction is00:03:06
certainly also often, in addition to00:03:08
tax reforms, unpleasant and00:03:11
uncomfortable nationalizations about de-00:03:14
privatization and new nationalization00:03:16
Should we wait for the confiscation of property and who00:03:18
will be taken away from large businesses from00:03:20
medium-sized ones, or maybe soon they00:03:24
will reach small ones? Well, first of all, it’s already happening,00:03:27
in the first place,00:03:30
if you look at the statistics of the Central Bank between00:03:33
Well, during the war years, we have00:03:36
more than 300 billion by 36 or something like00:03:38
this, the volume of00:03:39
foreign direct investment has decreased quite a lot, yes, that is,00:03:43
Well, it is clear that part of this is due to the00:03:45
revaluation of the value of these investments, but00:03:47
nevertheless, in a significant00:03:48
part, foreign investors, foreign00:03:51
businesses, foreign companies have left,00:03:53
sold their assets, but they00:04:00
were more civilized but much00:04:03
cheaper than it was than their real00:04:07
cost in other conditions, accordingly, we00:04:10
certainly have cases like00:04:12
Rolf's case where, in fact, a00:04:15
large successful Russian businessman was00:04:18
simply taken away from a large company simply, in general, by00:04:21
lawlessness, and that is, it is clear that there are00:04:23
political justifications in this is00:04:28
tshi We are observing in Well, how to say in the00:04:33
media field But it is clear that the scale of00:04:37
influence of the security forces in war conditions00:04:39
is growing and in these conditions the00:04:42
scale of their influence on business is also growing, even if in00:04:45
general there are situations00:04:48
where, let’s say, some representative of a00:04:50
security corporation has him there the wife00:04:52
is engaged in business or he is some kind of00:04:54
partner there, an informal one of some kind of00:04:55
business, they are always common there00:04:57
in there when Ugod00:05:00
one role of these partners, that is, let's say00:05:03
We have some kind of businessman Yes, he00:05:05
has some kind of desk colonel But here in At00:05:09
the beginning, this businessman looked down on this00:05:12
colonel00:05:13
and he was clearly a junior partner. It’s00:05:16
simply00:05:29
one of the most negative00:05:34
trends for the long-term development of the economy, which, well, they simply00:05:37
reduce the quality of decisions made, they00:05:38
reduce the very efficiency of business00:05:41
that allows the Russian economy to00:05:43
still be quite successfully staying00:05:45
afloat is a creeping process. I don’t00:05:48
think that anything here somehow depends on the00:05:50
elections, or maybe even more so on a00:05:52
terrorist attack. But the fact that the00:05:55
country is simply moving in such a direction00:05:59
with the constant growth of the influence of the security forces00:06:02
certainly leads to a parallel00:06:05
redistribution of property that occurs at00:06:07
various levels from00:06:10
foreigners Well, what was said in your question00:06:14
about Well, relatively speaking, there are00:06:16
large companies that were once00:06:18
privatized and we also see similar00:06:20
cases Yes,00:06:21
as some things are props here I’m just00:06:25
Well, at least for now I wouldn’t expect at the00:06:28
very least any processes in relation to loyal00:06:30
oligarchic groups00:06:33
before privatization but nationalization in00:06:36
general, so far these are the exact00:06:39
actions taken in this logic, they are00:06:40
mainly related to Rostec with the defense00:06:43
industrial complex and what is around00:06:45
it.00:06:47
There are so far these are isolated cases, but00:06:50
this is also not00:06:52
worth it. How can we say that we can come to this and00:06:55
arrive after some time, I don’t00:06:58
rule it out, but Will we be able to draw any00:07:01
conclusions, for example, starting from what00:07:04
will follow after the inauguration? I00:07:06
mean the president is obliged will00:07:08
dismiss the cabinet of ministers and appoint a00:07:11
new one, and depending on what kind of00:07:14
people he chooses, will we be able to00:07:17
predict how00:07:19
economic policy will develop in Russia, relatively00:07:22
speaking, they will retain their position if the00:07:24
same00:07:25
shu all the people who are usually called the00:07:27
saviors of the Russian economy00:07:29
thanks to whom still hasn’t collapsed00:07:31
Or, for example, they will be sent into00:07:34
retirement, perhaps long-awaited for some of them,00:07:36
and they will be replaced by00:07:38
supporters of even more economic00:07:39
isolation of some heads of00:07:42
conditionally Well, I’m waiting for the preservation rather, but00:07:45
here Let’s divide the question into00:07:47
several parts that is, there00:07:48
to predict Putin’s actions. In general, I did00:07:50
not expect a war. And this was a complete surprise for me, yes, I00:07:54
could be wrong, if it comes from00:07:58
rational references, then in general,00:08:00
of course, the Russian economic bloc of00:08:03
the government is one of the best in the00:08:04
world. He is very professional and, in general, then00:08:07
over the past many years,00:08:10
many things, well, they will later be included in00:08:12
economic history textbooks about how they00:08:14
react to certain crises that the00:08:17
political bloc of00:08:19
the government in the person of the president throws up,00:08:20
I organize all sorts of wars, then some other00:08:22
crises and other madness, so well from00:08:25
my point of view, of course, it would be00:08:28
irrational, so to speak, to change him00:08:30
and Well, at least to change him seriously, that00:08:33
is, it is clear that there is the figure of the prime minister00:08:35
personally, or there is the figure of individual00:08:37
ministers personally, but someone should be00:08:39
replaced in connection with the renewal of the00:08:41
team there, the inauguration then yes, this is, in00:08:43
principle, such a normal planned00:08:45
thing, but I mean serious in terms of00:08:48
ideology and what is being implemented. I would, well,00:08:52
in my opinion, countries would change this.00:08:54
Moreover, in general, I now see00:08:57
what is happening right now,00:09:00
say. 2 years have passed since the beginning of the war,00:09:03
there were several multidirectional shocks00:09:06
associated there with sanctions, then there with00:09:08
the tightening of these sanctions and with00:09:11
currency00:09:13
jumps there, much more than parallel imports,00:09:16
all00:09:17
this led to these multidirectional00:09:20
shocks they moved the00:09:24
KNU pereku ekono00:09:28
perevo00:09:30
and in general - then, uh, Perestroika is00:09:32
more or less completed. That is, I would, well,00:09:34
now it’s clear that they will be at00:09:37
high rates, that is, the real rate is00:09:40
much higher than inflation. Yes, this stimulates the00:09:44
fact that people take out fewer consumer00:09:46
loans; they take more money to the bank;00:09:49
we have up to a fantastic 13% of income in00:09:54
which00:09:56
quarter that00:09:58
people the share of income of the population that00:10:02
is deposited in banks has increased accordingly the00:10:04
state will borrow this money00:10:08
through government bonds00:10:10
on an internal loan to use for the00:10:12
war in general the model is like this, well,00:10:14
it has already taken shape, relatively speaking,00:10:17
by the end of last year and it00:10:20
implies some inertia That is,00:10:21
I would no longer expect any00:10:23
additional sharp movements in the00:10:25
near foreseeable future Yes,00:10:26
because it’s clear where to get the00:10:29
money.00:10:30
It’s clear that Well,00:10:33
for now we are increasing military orders and00:10:36
pouring in the so-called military kinney,00:10:39
we are pouring in money through the salaries of these00:10:42
contract soldiers and through the military-industrial complex, through00:10:45
multipliers, they create additional00:10:47
demand, that is, the GDP there is at least00:10:49
a little, but industry is growing in00:10:51
some sectors, growing strongly, but in00:10:53
others everything is not so not so joyful, but00:10:56
nevertheless it also somehow exists and all00:10:58
this is clear as it is maybe the price00:11:00
there for the next one and a half to two years is quite good. Well,00:11:02
that is, this is just a perspective that is00:11:04
very clearly calculated and, in general,00:11:05
this is the balance. Well, it is00:11:07
calculated with the exception of, as usual,00:11:09
in Russia oil prices can always fall sharply00:11:11
and this, of course, will00:11:13
turn everything upside down there but at least for now I00:11:14
can see how they finally, in 2 years,00:11:17
developed some kind of00:11:20
relatively stable model. Well, it’s already00:11:22
clear how it will be if, relatively00:11:24
speaking, in there in the middle of the twenty-second00:11:26
year, even at the beginning of the twenty-third,00:11:27
much was not clear how everything00:11:30
will be restructured and react to00:11:32
certain shocks, now this is more or less00:11:34
understandable in these conditions. I would certainly00:11:37
not change the economic block, but well, it’s00:11:41
clear what figures are associated there,00:11:43
relatively speaking, with a greater state00:11:46
Well, that is, with greater dirigisme in00:11:48
the economy and further retreat a departure00:11:50
from liberal recipes Well, from the moderates00:11:53
Let the00:11:56
demons go, but nevertheless, his00:12:00
view is there. That is, he is a supporter of more,00:12:04
relatively speaking, dirigisme and more00:12:05
influence, there are much more Well, how to00:12:08
say figures Well, or about whom we00:12:10
don’t really know anything like Kako Dyumin00:12:12
well, or we know that most likely his00:12:15
ideas in economics are of a strange00:12:18
nature or superficial yes Well, I00:12:22
wouldn’t think that people like the head00:12:24
are being considered, but it’s obvious that there are00:12:27
people who,00:12:30
including from the00:12:34
business side, are supporters of greater00:12:36
credit expansion that is, the same00:12:38
rate with which I started there that needs to be00:12:40
lowered and not00:12:44
raised, it is clear that their arrival00:12:47
would demonstrate that we are moving away from00:12:50
that super tough and Well, in fact, the00:12:52
economic policy00:12:53
that has worked00:12:58
there recently, well, specific figures are needed already00:13:00
will speak there based on the fact of their00:13:03
appointment, that is, do I00:13:04
understand correctly that war as a whole is such a00:13:06
relatively speaking00:13:08
economic ambush? A trap for Russia00:13:11
on the one hand, war is something that00:13:14
destroys the Russian economy and depletes it,00:13:16
but at the same time it is also something that has00:13:18
now been happening for the past two years,00:13:21
including Yes, the Russian economy is being dragged by00:13:25
spat, here you need to understand that the economy was00:13:29
very different from virtually all00:13:31
the economies of the world before the war, well, I00:13:33
recently calculated if you take the last00:13:36
20 years there and look at the00:13:40
arithmetic average of the budget deficit of00:13:42
different countries Well, let’s say in the USA, on00:13:44
average over 20 years there was a deficit of 4 there with a00:13:46
small percentage of GDP in Japan 5 with00:13:49
something percent of00:13:51
GDP, so it’s at most moderate and look at00:13:56
Germany there about 1.3 or one and a half00:13:59
That is, every year there is such a deficit in00:14:01
the budget, every year the budget is larger00:14:03
borrows00:14:06
what it earns, and only the Russian00:14:10
Federation for 20 years on average had00:14:12
almost 1% of the arithmetic average00:14:14
budget surplus for a00:14:17
twenty-year-old Well, the average normal00:14:19
economy since then they occupied Approximately there00:14:22
on average00:14:28
3%,00:14:30
relatively speaking for00:14:32
4 dots What is called Every year00:14:35
for 20 years is clear that in conditions of00:14:38
war, he begins to spend more and,00:14:40
accordingly, this creates a demand that00:14:43
drags down the economy if,00:14:46
say, Turkey were in a similar situation, I00:14:50
already have a huge00:14:58
budget deficit, they are happy to cut sharply there and00:15:00
take other unpleasant actions in the00:15:02
conditions of the Russian Federation, this is00:15:05
possible, moreover, there is also a second a00:15:07
very strange thing, again, over the same00:15:10
2000:15:11
years, we, on average, Well, the Russian Federation00:15:14
on average had a positive balance of00:15:17
foreign trade in 99% of GDP, these are generally00:15:19
fantastic figures for such Well,00:15:23
Germany simply does not have such things, but in general,00:15:27
again, most countries are fine00:15:29
their economies have a negative trade00:15:31
balance, that is, to00:15:35
understand, at its peak, the Soviet Union was00:15:38
8% of GDP in the third year, and the00:15:42
Russian Federation, for 20 years,00:15:44
every year consumed 9% less than it00:15:48
produced, these 99% were exported from the country00:15:51
every year for 20 years these the money was either00:15:54
government money or was exported by00:15:56
wealthy Russians, relatively speaking,00:15:57
to personal accounts,00:15:59
respectively, when suddenly a war breaks out in such an00:16:01
economy,00:16:03
you simply reduce net00:16:07
exports. Well, let’s say you00:16:12
start to export less metal and00:16:15
spend more of it on war. You previously00:16:17
exported weapons, and now you have weapons00:16:19
you didn’t export diesel before, you00:16:23
exported diesel, now you export less00:16:25
on war, and so on and so on00:16:27
and so on, since our increase in00:16:30
war costs was literally 3000:16:31
small, about the VP this is at the maximum. That is,00:16:33
what was added to what was before00:16:36
before the war, and before the war,00:16:40
for 20 years there was an extra 9%, that is,00:16:43
relatively speaking, the government’s task is00:16:44
simply to more clearly withdraw this 9%00:16:48
from the economic elite and redistribute it00:16:51
for the war, that is, again, in00:16:57
Balan or most00:17:00
normal countries like the USA or there is England00:17:02
and so on, in conditions if00:17:04
additional resources were distributed for00:17:06
the war, it would put pressure on the exchange rate, there would be00:17:08
devaluation, there would be an inflationary spiral,00:17:10
and so on. That is, in a war you are00:17:14
forced to import something,00:17:17
and that is, your imports increase,00:17:19
exports decrease this puts00:17:21
additional pressure on the exchange rate in the country00:17:23
in which exports were. There were more00:17:26
imports during the benev00:17:30
world00:17:32
war even now, even well, that is, let’s say for the00:17:36
second year the net balance of foreign00:17:39
trade is positive, it fell five00:17:41
times Well, this is the result of military00:17:44
actions, but it’s still the same positive,00:17:46
it fell five times, but it is positive.00:17:48
And in Turkey, even without military action, it is00:17:49
still negative. And it’s the same with the00:17:52
budget deficit. Well, last00:17:55
year the budget deficit amounted to 1.9 VP00:17:58
twenty-third in the Russian Federation.00:18:00
But this is less than the average00:18:02
OECD countries not waging war, that is, the average00:18:05
indicators for OECD countries in peaceful00:18:08
situations in 2023 is 3%00:18:10
of GDP there, about that, and the Russian00:18:12
Federation, waging a war, is 1.9, that00:18:15
is, the uniqueness of the economic00:18:18
past is an abnormality, let’s say this is the00:18:21
generally described parameters by them You can,00:18:23
of course talk about how stable we are,00:18:24
but in general this is a missed development. Well,00:18:27
that is, here you can make a lot of complaints about this,00:18:30
but one way or another00:18:32
they were and it is the unique combination of00:18:34
these parameters that allows the Russian00:18:36
economy to grow strongly. Well, that is, let’s say00:18:40
at least to overcome the00:18:43
simultaneous sanctions pressure an increase in00:18:45
war costs, thereby provoking00:18:48
additional domestic demand. Well, the00:18:51
last thing worth adding is that00:18:57
in general, industry and GDP00:19:00
always grew during the war in all00:19:02
countries with market economies, including in the00:19:04
First World War and the Second, and Well, if you do00:19:07
n’t Germany who bomb an00:19:09
Allied plane, then the GDP always00:19:12
grows, it just usually falls in the first00:19:15
2 years after the war, that is, in the USA the00:19:17
deepest failure is the forty-sixth year and00:19:20
in England there is the nineteenth and twentieth. That00:19:22
is, as a rule, all this bad GDP for the00:19:24
production of tanks and everything other things00:19:26
that grow during the war, it00:19:28
simply decreases sharply in the first years00:19:30
after it. At the same time, the00:19:32
maximum increase in inflation occurs, that00:19:33
is, in normal market economies, the00:19:35
increase in inflation also occurred after the00:19:37
war and not during it. And so you00:19:41
will have to pay for all this When the war00:19:42
is over, but nevertheless, taking into account the inputs00:19:44
I described, there is simply a00:19:47
colossal margin of safety for the budget00:19:50
system and the trade balance. Well, now00:19:53
they can drag this war on for quite a00:19:54
long time, and well, on a scale. Well,00:19:57
increase the scale by two or three times and00:19:59
they can drag on some more... that time, that is,00:20:01
this reserve is still far from being eaten up, that is,00:20:03
less was spent on the war than was00:20:06
always the excess, so to speak, GDP Yes, and00:20:10
there was an excess, so to speak, budget. If we00:20:13
compare this with normal countries and00:20:16
with the average indicators for the hospital, and00:20:19
if we talk about this very reserve00:20:20
the day before, the guests of the00:20:22
inhale-exhale program were political scientist Alexander00:20:24
Morozov and he said an interesting phrase that00:20:27
Putin’s term is equal to the term00:20:29
while the president will go to war, but his00:20:33
new00:20:34
term is undoubtedly the term of the war00:20:37
because he started the war, so to speak, 2 years00:20:40
before this transition to In the new cadence, the war00:20:43
is obviously the center of all00:20:46
politics, both internal and external, for him,00:20:49
as it were, for Putin and for his00:20:51
entourage, if we say that00:20:54
forgive me, we have a00:20:57
reserve in the Russian economy, let’s00:21:00
assume for the next 6 years it is obvious00:21:02
that these 6 Vladimir Putin00:21:05
will definitely remain president for years. Well, if we00:21:08
consider the war on the scale00:21:10
that was going on in 224, then00:21:12
such a war can be waged indefinitely. That00:21:15
is, this is, that is, understand, in 24 we00:21:17
have 6-00:21:19
something percent of military spending of GDP there But00:21:21
even there, taking into account the fact that some of it goes00:21:23
through other channels. But even if it’s00:21:25
8%, it’s less than the00:21:31
United States had in Vietnam, it’s more than a00:21:34
times less than Israel had there, on00:21:36
average, about 15% of military spending00:21:39
for 30 years 15% military expenditures GDP00:21:43
and these 30 years have been quietly growing. That is, well,00:21:47
what happened in the world wars, it’s00:21:49
generally pointless to say there, military expenditures grew up to 60%00:21:52
in this, enough for00:21:56
Kirov military expenditures PTO perspective,00:21:59
if we don’t take there years00:22:02
after the end of the Cold War war and00:22:04
general disarmament and there peace of happiness00:22:07
and chewing gum, then in general 6% are the00:22:10
expenses that Well, in the same USA, for00:22:13
most of the post-war period00:22:15
after the Second World War they were higher00:22:17
than 6% and sometimes they were 12 and this was00:22:20
for years and decades at the same time, the00:22:22
US economy00:22:24
grew on the scale of Well, roughly speaking, such a00:22:27
military and with that margin of safety of the00:22:30
budget because, again, I said00:22:32
that even in these conditions the budget deficit is00:22:34
less than the normal average in the world in00:22:36
normal economies in Peacetime it is00:22:39
still low and accordingly00:22:42
on a scale, you can simply indefinitely,00:22:44
not even 6 years, that’s 60 years, that’s that00:22:47
Whatever, it’s more likely that people will run out here or00:22:49
some other resources than00:22:52
money Yes, tanks will run out there, I don’t know,00:22:54
money can’t always be easily00:22:55
turned into tanks,00:22:57
but what00:22:59
if we assume the growth of all00:23:02
these expenses, that is, well, look,00:23:03
in general, our budget from the fourth year00:23:06
to the twenty-third, military spending00:23:08
increased by 1.7 times.00:23:10
Well, quite a lot, that is, if we have00:23:13
such dynamics, what is it? Well, every year it00:23:14
will be one and a half times00:23:17
military spending will increase Well, I think yes, 6 years Well,00:23:21
a lot still depends on00:23:23
oil prices, that is, we must again understand00:23:24
that the Russian economy is still vulnerable,00:23:25
that there is another line, as it were, what00:23:28
if tomorrow oil prices are 3000:23:29
dollars per A barrel, then the figures I told you,00:23:32
they will fall a little, and that is, let’s00:23:35
say, such a drop in00:23:39
oil prices will cost more than waging00:23:40
a war, this must be understood and, accordingly,00:23:45
Well, 6 years, increasing by one and a half times00:23:48
every year. Well, probably theoretically it00:23:51
can be extended. Although I would rather be in this00:23:53
I gave the scenarios for three years, then in any00:23:55
case, you understand. The economy has two00:23:59
two completely different regimes, you can00:24:01
maintain the market frame and market00:24:03
incentives in bulk. And you can move on to00:24:06
Administrative redistribution and to00:24:08
command methods of mobilization of00:24:11
requisitions, extreme ones. Well, without breaking the00:24:14
market frame, it’s easy for three years and then00:24:18
it’s clear that you can always,00:24:19
let’s say, turn on the Fast and the Furious And that,00:24:23
of course, will lead to the most negative consequences in the long term,00:24:26
but the moment00:24:28
will also allow you00:24:30
to pull it off, well, you know, I watch various00:24:33
kinds of economic programs, including00:24:34
here on the Khodorkovsky Life channel. And00:24:37
I’ll immediately say that I do not pretend to have00:24:38
any deep economic00:24:40
expertise, but some guests,00:24:43
some speakers and some00:24:44
invited experts, they build00:24:47
absolutely apocalyptic Models there,00:24:49
relatively speaking, a lipsis which some00:24:51
call the Apocalypse and other00:24:54
economists predict there is a dollar at 20000:24:57
euros at 300 the00:24:58
national welfare fund they say00:25:01
practically at zero,00:25:03
de-energized, eaten up, the country00:25:07
has no resources, the Central Bank is burning the currency, I just don’t00:25:11
know, in boxes, in order to00:25:12
somehow save, keep the00:25:15
Russian currency afloat, the ruble exchange rate,00:25:18
all these are some kind of scarecrows of00:25:20
urban crazy people, or do you still need00:25:22
to listen to them where here is this00:25:23
golden mean you will remember March of the00:25:27
second year remember March of the second00:25:30
year then they all said the same thing I00:25:31
said then that nothing would happen, but00:25:36
you see,00:25:39
people want to hear what they00:25:42
believe in, therefore in everyone What they want00:25:45
to believe is what they I like that this is going to00:25:47
happen, it’s clear that in our00:25:49
information bubble we seem to be rooting00:25:51
against00:25:52
Russia,00:25:57
save these kinds of forecasts, but they have00:25:59
never come true. Well, it’s just00:26:02
that we can raise who wrote what when,00:26:04
yes, that is, we can very clearly00:26:06
track this biography and what I wrote,00:26:09
let’s say, in the spring of twenty-two And00:26:12
what others wrote. By the way, I also slightly00:26:14
overestimated the scale of the fall. I expected00:26:16
it to be larger, but by a lot. Well, that is, the00:26:18
difference between these forecasts was00:26:20
colossal between mine, relatively speaking,00:26:22
and what was predicted for the Russian00:26:24
economy. If you look at there are00:26:26
different videos on tube from different economists too00:26:30
And and their name there will00:26:34
always be the ruble falling the economy is00:26:36
collapsing TTT and so on for 2 years but we are observing00:26:40
objective statistics and objective00:26:42
statistics demonstrate even GDP growth and00:26:44
even growth in real disposable income of the00:26:46
population, what’s up since, in contrast to GDP, it is00:26:48
extremely atypical for the military and for00:26:51
warring economies This story It will just00:26:53
end, it will end just this00:26:55
summer Well, in the beginning of autumn00:26:57
This will definitely be the peak Then they won’t grow further,00:27:00
by the way, it was also connected with the00:27:02
elections I I don’t see, you understand00:27:05
the prediction of the exchange rate, it is a00:27:08
function of the prediction of oil prices. That00:27:10
is, if you tell me the price of oil, I00:27:12
can say something at current00:27:15
oil prices, there are no prerequisites for such a00:27:17
movement in the exchange rate. And at the same time,00:27:21
Well, here is the second second thing This concerns the00:27:24
position of the Central Bank and you understand the main problem of the00:27:27
Russian economy now is the00:27:30
labor market on it is colossal. The deficit is the00:27:32
main point of overheating, that is, we have fallen00:27:34
to unemployment of 2.9 But in general, in a normal00:27:37
economic model, it is generally considered00:27:38
that unemployment below 5% is bad. But00:27:41
if unemployment reaches 5% is already00:27:44
the point of overheating, you need to start00:27:46
doing something so that it does not decrease further,00:27:48
respectively 2.9 - this is simply very00:27:51
very few people continue, that00:27:55
is, someone emigrated,00:27:57
someone leaves for a contract, someone goes00:28:00
to the military-industrial complex of their they pull everyone out and,00:28:02
accordingly, at the same time Previously, we had the whole00:28:04
system to balance strobe00:28:08
bitemirova Well, now and so the00:28:11
Tajiks connected with the crocus may be00:28:13
some went But that’s not the point, the most00:28:15
important thing is that they are focused on00:28:17
dollar salaries00:28:19
and in conditions of a sharp00:28:22
labor shortage devaluation00:28:26
leads to a round of00:28:28
inflation00:28:31
in the inflation of costs due to wages, that00:28:34
is, look at the previous periods00:28:36
before, in a normal situation when the00:28:38
Russian Federation00:28:40
reacted to various crises in one way or another, there00:28:42
was always a completely universal solution. But00:28:45
if we had a crisis, something00:28:47
happened there oil fell, everything is bad We00:28:49
devalued the ruble, this leads to the fact that on the00:28:51
one hand, our budget immediately00:28:54
begins to receive more money00:28:56
because, well,00:28:59
taxes are taken from it in rubles and,00:29:00
accordingly, the budget in rubles begins to00:29:02
receive more money, and secondly,00:29:03
at the same time,00:29:06
part these builders are leaving the country00:29:10
because their dollar wages are falling00:29:12
and we are throwing them out of the labor market, and00:29:15
accordingly, everything in the labor market is, as it00:29:18
were, balancing from such a maneuver,00:29:20
this maneuver was undertaken many times, that00:29:23
is, the government could relatively00:29:25
painlessly, on the one hand, sing00:29:28
on the other parties to balance the00:29:30
labor market so that there is no rapid increase in00:29:31
unemployment during the crisis. And now00:29:34
we find ourselves in conditions of a sharp shortage00:29:36
in the labor market, if in these conditions the00:29:38
government devalues00:29:41
the ruble, then there will be an additional00:29:44
outflow of those same migrants already in00:29:48
conditions of a sharp shortage, which is inevitable00:29:50
leads00:29:51
to an inflationary spiral. Note that we understand00:29:55
that now than in general00:29:59
in the VP Add bonuses to salaries, that00:30:03
is, the government with the other hand00:30:06
spends much more resources on direct00:30:07
salaries to the Ilim population or there,00:30:11
relatively speaking, to00:30:14
those at war, if our wages begin to increase00:30:17
there, conditionally build That is,00:30:19
when a taxi driver or a worker00:30:26
will start you00:30:30
fighting Money under a contract in order to preserve the00:30:33
very premium that attracts them there,00:30:35
that is, in these conditions, devaluation is00:30:38
essentially not a fact that will bring a gain for the00:30:40
budget, but at the same time it will00:30:41
sharply increase tension on the00:30:44
labor market. Therefore, I think, well, in general, all00:30:46
actions Central Bank that I00:30:48
observed There they even gave an00:30:50
explanation of their behavior00:30:56
navat they will keep ultra-high,00:30:59
ultra-tight rates And a more or less00:31:03
stable ruble exchange rate in the sense that00:31:06
by stability I understand that00:31:07
devaluation is not much ahead of inflation,00:31:10
that is, well, roughly speaking, there is inflation 10%00:31:13
So there is a devaluation there 15 but no more, well,00:31:16
with understandable movements back and forth,00:31:18
because any other action It simply00:31:20
creates00:31:22
additional and unpredictable00:31:24
risks both for the budget and for the00:31:25
labor market of the economy as a whole,00:31:28
but it is clear that if prices oil will00:31:31
fall significantly. Anything can happen,00:31:33
and maybe they will change00:31:35
their decision, at least to the00:31:37
inertial one. I would see exactly this, and00:31:39
look here, again, we have high00:31:41
stakes. They are doing a lot of things, that is,00:31:43
Well. first, in the00:31:45
fourth quarter, it seems that the00:31:47
growth of consumer credit actually stopped in nominal terms00:31:51
because00:31:52
high rates mean higher rates for00:32:00
people, including Well, for the most00:32:02
declassed elements, so that they00:32:04
go to war more because they00:32:05
need loans there It’s impossible to give them back to refinance00:32:07
But you have an additional00:32:09
bonus for going to war And at the same time,00:32:13
as we said, to historical00:32:15
highs of up to00:32:17
13% of the population’s income in the fourth00:32:21
quarter, the part of it that is00:32:23
carried in the bank increased. What does this mean, relatively00:32:25
speaking, people retirement age,00:32:29
they are also encouraged to remain in the00:32:30
labor market, largely because the00:32:32
rates are high. That is, firstly, you00:32:34
don’t have money that you could spend00:32:36
on consumer goods in banks. And00:32:38
banks give debt to the state, and secondly,00:32:41
in such conditions00:32:43
you Well, motivation00:32:47
deferring increases, this also00:32:49
keeps people in the labor market00:32:56
as a whole, I see this is the inertial model,00:32:59
that is, most likely It00:33:01
would be logical to keep it in00:33:03
this context, I would at least00:33:05
do it that way, they act quite00:33:07
reasonably, but I want to ask a question that00:33:10
will probably be such a connection between00:33:12
the economy and politics that is closer to me,00:33:14
that is, Could this situation00:33:16
that you described, which is also related00:33:18
to unemployment with this record00:33:20
level of 2.9%, tells us that the00:33:24
closure of borders from Central Asia, the introduction of a00:33:26
visa regime, and the00:33:29
migration policy that attracts00:33:31
on the contrary Yes, it lures cheap labor into the country00:33:34
and it will remain in the middle of Asia00:33:36
and no visas, which are00:33:39
being talked about a lot now after the terrorist attack but00:33:42
should not be expected, that is, Russia needs this00:33:43
workforce, these labor resources00:33:45
are refusing them and the country does not00:33:47
plan Well, if Well, here it is necessary make00:33:50
a reservation you said Everything is correct only00:33:52
on the condition that they act00:33:53
rationally, that is, we are like how,00:33:56
unlike economic policy, in00:33:58
political matters we have repeatedly00:34:00
observed some actions00:34:02
that I would never do and they00:34:04
seem absolutely rational to me, I think so00:34:07
of course, especially in war conditions, despite the fact00:34:10
that in our country, understand this, we have00:34:13
now described this. This labor market is00:34:15
static. But tomorrow, let’s assume00:34:17
they announce a second wave of mobilization. It00:34:19
hits at the same time, not only does it00:34:22
take additional people into the army, it also00:34:24
splashes out additional work00:34:28
for the Rosco of the Federation because it00:34:29
will be an additional won of emigration. That00:34:31
is, we simply have this action00:34:33
right there and there minus half a million00:34:35
workers. Otherwise, it may be more,00:34:37
respectively, it is clear00:34:39
that closing borders in these conditions00:34:42
is strange,00:34:43
but00:34:46
here it is precisely with this that I explained why it00:34:49
is strange in these conditions, there is a sharp00:34:50
devaluation of the ruble, so I don’t00:34:56
think so if we closed the borders but00:34:59
the migrants will not go, and in those cases if00:35:01
their salary in dollar terms does00:35:03
not suit them, this is very important. Well, there are00:35:09
no rational arguments for closing the borders from Central Asia.00:35:12
then the only reservoir of the00:35:15
labor00:35:16
force reserve is probably the last question, but it’s00:35:18
very important for me, I’ll ask you. We’re00:35:20
running out of time for conversation. You00:35:24
spoke00:35:26
prophetically,00:35:28
if we want the collapse of Russia, you00:35:31
meant, of course, the Russian regime, the ruling00:35:33
elite, Vladimir Putin, the gang of those people00:35:36
who set up the government between themselves00:35:39
the country and are actually destroying now they are00:35:41
waging this monstrous war, well,00:35:43
every time I ask myself the question: how can00:35:49
we wish good things for Russia? Why is Russia our Russia not theirs?00:35:59
from an00:36:02
economic point of view, this is a very good00:36:05
question, you know, to be honest, I don’t see any00:36:09
economic factors that could00:36:13
cause the collapse of the regime on the horizon until the00:36:15
first half of the thirties, but00:36:18
if you seriously look at things without00:36:20
fools,00:36:21
then for now, one way or another, there is a reserve Sorry, that’s00:36:25
enough howling00:36:29
T this Of course, this is a separate story, but00:36:30
if we look purely at economic00:36:32
factors, then I believe that we can expect something00:36:35
like this when the economy again creates a00:36:39
demand for political changes.00:36:41
Well, relatively speaking, in three When,00:36:44
first of all, the consequences of the00:36:45
energy transition will lead to to a00:36:48
decrease in at least rent, the00:36:56
cost of all this oil production will00:36:59
continue to grow. And relatively speaking, the00:37:01
demand for at least00:37:03
hydrocarbons, their growth will decrease,00:37:06
while many relatively speaking00:37:07
technological sanctions that were00:37:09
introduced will lead to a00:37:12
greater technological lag by that period; they00:37:14
will not have an effect now00:37:15
Well, that is, they have little effect00:37:17
now, but they give great results00:37:19
later, and plus different things will accumulate, that00:37:21
is, the lag there00:37:25
with neighbors like I don’t know in the Baltics will be more noticeable.00:37:28
Let’s say, or Well, any other storefronts,00:37:30
as was the case in the USSR in the foreseeable00:37:35
future, some- then there are 5-8 years,00:37:39
taking into account the team that manages the00:37:41
Russian economy and the reserves00:37:43
that have been accumulated, I simply cannot00:37:46
imagine an economic blow00:37:49
that could leave the regime.00:37:52
More likely, these are things. That is,00:37:55
any stories about there, I don’t know, a Palace00:37:58
coup are much more likely or I don’t know, Putin’s death00:38:00
or something else unsystematic, maybe00:38:02
some completely black swan is singing,00:38:04
which we simply can’t00:38:06
imagine,00:38:08
but I don’t even see the mechanisms of how this00:38:11
can be00:38:13
done by anyone in the West. That is, at00:38:17
least this is before the disaster there is something00:38:21
like an economic crisis that00:38:23
can break the regime there, this is when you00:38:26
either have00:38:28
endless inflation or you have a complete deficit,00:38:30
people are standing in lines for bread, this is this,00:38:32
this is a serious economic00:38:33
crisis when you have00:38:57
this gradual decline But we have been watching00:38:59
all these years since 2013 there has been a gradual decline in00:39:02
real disposable income of the population,00:39:04
and at its peak it exceeded 10% and00:39:07
that, in general, no one really took to the streets,00:39:09
so I don’t think that00:39:11
economic factors00:39:12
can ensure what you00:39:16
say, thank you very much for your sober00:39:18
analysis Dmitry Nekrasov was an economist00:39:20
today, as a guest of the program Inhale, Exhale, we00:39:23
were also engaged in trying to00:39:25
dispel myths Yes And00:39:27
don’t turn these economic scarecrows into00:39:29
entrance money, let’s still, as if we did00:39:32
n’t want to believe These are these wishful00:39:35
scenarios, and maintaining the thread with Yuma is00:39:39
very important, especially in such a time difficult and00:39:41
anxious time Thank you,00:39:48
see you [music] Thank you for being with us It00:39:50
was a program of inhalation and exhalation Renat Daev was with you00:39:52
At the end of our conversation, I will00:39:55
again ask you to subscribe to the00:39:56
hacks channel Barking is not00:40:02
a begging, an important and good deed, there are many of us and00:40:05
Let's show to our enemies that we are00:40:08
not alone and that they do not have a00:40:12
monolithic opinion about the development of our00:40:15
country, including economic Thank you, see you00:40:17
soon on the Khavsky00:40:20
Live channel, see you for now You can00:40:22
watch other programs that have00:40:23
now appeared around me I recommend00:40:26
you do this interesting guests00:40:29
interesting analysis interesting programs00:40:32
Thank you for being with us, stay with us00:40:34
and00:40:36
[music]00:40:56
Bergi LDescription:
Гость нового выпуска программы «Вдох-Выдох» — экономист Дмитрий Некрасов. В отличие от многих экспертов и гостей наших эфиров его позиция в отношении будущего российской экономики не столь апокалиптична: ни «доллар по 200», ни «путинская кубышка опустошена» из его уст вы не услышите. Тем любопытнее разговор. Какие экономические последствия будут у двух главных событий весны — «выборов» Путина и теракта в «Крокусе»? Почему Кремль не пойдет на ужесточение миграционной политики? Какие непопулярные законы последуют за повышением налогов? Наконец, настала ли пора новой национализации? Бизнес в России в руках спецслужб. И все уже давно не зависит ни от кого кроме оборотней в погонах — даже от некогда приближенных олигархов. Скоро инаугурация — поменяет ли Путин экономический блок правительства, который спас страну от военного шока? Если нынешний курс продолжится, а его авторы сохранят свои портфели — Набиуллина, Мишустин, Силуанов — то Кремлю ничего, кроме нефти по 30 долларов, не угрожает. И войну, по крайней мере в ее нынешнем виде, Путин сможет вести практически вечно. Смотрите «Вдох-выдох» с Дмитрием Некрасовым и Ренатом Давлетгильдеевым 2 апреля в 17-00 по Москве и Киеву. И не забывайте подписываться на @khodorkovskylive, чтобы не пропускать новые выпуски! Таймкоды: 00:00 Тизер 00:30 Гость программы — Андрей Некрасов 01:19 Ожидать ли закручивания гаек в экономике? 06:59 Почему не стоит надеяться на новые лица в правительстве 07:56 Российский экономический блок — один из лучших в мире 09:35 Как ВВП растет благодаря войне 13:03 Российская экономика до войны сильно отличалась от мировых 15:41 Что спасает экономику РФ во время войны 18:17 Олигархи воруют меньше — поэтому экономика выживает 20:18 Срок Путина равен сроку войны? 22:24 «Люди закончатся раньше, чем деньги» 24:31 Доллара по 200 не будет 28:02 Падающий рубль бьет по гастарбайтерам 33:08 Россия не сможет закрыться от Центральной Азии? 35:17 Как желать процветания России, но краха экономическому режиму Путина? 39:16 Финал СМОТРИТЕ ТАКЖЕ НА ХОДОРКОВСКИЙ LIVE ⚡️НОВОСТИ | ДРОНЫ АТАКОВАЛИ ТАТАРСТАН | ФСБ НАШЛА ВЗРЫВЧАТКУ В ИКОНАХ | УМЕР ПОДОЗРЕВАЕМЫЙ В ТЕРАКТЕ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CkQACvG8raY ШЕНДЕРОВИЧ: Конспирология для чайников — чипы, облучение и синие свитера. Наступление армии Путина https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ce0zGiqyAw Шахерезада Кабаева. Наложница Путина, но не первая леди. Тело государственной важности / КЛИНИКА https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZEhQ9-0n4d8 АСЛАНЯН: Теракт в «Крокусе»: как к нему готовились. Оружие и снаряжение. Анализ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eN2iWA73jUo ВЕЛЛЕР: «Крокус» — у Путина не сходятся концы с концами. А не свои ли устроили теракт? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=loOODBceEzk ХОДОРКОВСКИЙ и ПАСТУХОВ: ФСБ прозевала теракт в «Крокусе». Как Путин разозлил ИГИЛ. Роль Агаларова https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KdjwpoYtXqo БЫКОВ: После Крокуса: погромы, зачистки, новые теракты, война везде. Белгород. Путин. Медведев. ФСБ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ehExw4ZYkFc АСЛАНЯН: Путин планирует новую мобилизацию и окружение Харькова? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RhwJoE-Vrug НЕВЗОРОВ: Кому выгоден теракт в «Крокусе»? Только Кремлю. Жизни людей — для Путина пустяк https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7nuA3OfO4lM ЛЕВА БИ-2: Тюрьма в Таиланде. Не сойти с ума. Впереди гражданская война. Путин. Земфира, БГ, Брат-2 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=paSWT7njeDI КРУТИХИН: Украина уничтожает российский нефтегаз. Потери от пожаров на НПЗ и проблемы «Газпрома» https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wFC3z1Jmz38 ШТЕФАНОВ: Мы должны извиниться перед Даванковым. КПРФ играет с Путиным в поддавки https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q-XYBDEpm1g Блог Михаила Ходорковского: https://www.youtube.com/user/khodorkovskyru
Preparing download options
* — If the video is playing in a new tab, go to it, then right-click on the video and select "Save video as..."
** — Link intended for online playback in specialized players
Questions about downloading video
How can I download "НЕКРАСОВ: Когда у Путина закончатся деньги на войну. Доллара по 200 не будет. Набиуллина. Мигранты" video?
http://unidownloader.com/ website is the best way to download a video or a separate audio track if you want to do without installing programs and extensions.
The UDL Helper extension is a convenient button that is seamlessly integrated into YouTube, Instagram and OK.ru sites for fast content download.
UDL Client program (for Windows) is the most powerful solution that supports more than 900 websites, social networks and video hosting sites, as well as any video quality that is available in the source.
UDL Lite is a really convenient way to access a website from your mobile device. With its help, you can easily download videos directly to your smartphone.
Which format of "НЕКРАСОВ: Когда у Путина закончатся деньги на войну. Доллара по 200 не будет. Набиуллина. Мигранты" video should I choose?
The best quality formats are FullHD (1080p), 2K (1440p), 4K (2160p) and 8K (4320p). The higher the resolution of your screen, the higher the video quality should be. However, there are other factors to consider: download speed, amount of free space, and device performance during playback.
Why does my computer freeze when loading a "НЕКРАСОВ: Когда у Путина закончатся деньги на войну. Доллара по 200 не будет. Набиуллина. Мигранты" video?
The browser/computer should not freeze completely! If this happens, please report it with a link to the video. Sometimes videos cannot be downloaded directly in a suitable format, so we have added the ability to convert the file to the desired format. In some cases, this process may actively use computer resources.
How can I download "НЕКРАСОВ: Когда у Путина закончатся деньги на войну. Доллара по 200 не будет. Набиуллина. Мигранты" video to my phone?
You can download a video to your smartphone using the website or the PWA application UDL Lite. It is also possible to send a download link via QR code using the UDL Helper extension.
How can I download an audio track (music) to MP3 "НЕКРАСОВ: Когда у Путина закончатся деньги на войну. Доллара по 200 не будет. Набиуллина. Мигранты"?
The most convenient way is to use the UDL Client program, which supports converting video to MP3 format. In some cases, MP3 can also be downloaded through the UDL Helper extension.
How can I save a frame from a video "НЕКРАСОВ: Когда у Путина закончатся деньги на войну. Доллара по 200 не будет. Набиуллина. Мигранты"?
This feature is available in the UDL Helper extension. Make sure that "Show the video snapshot button" is checked in the settings. A camera icon should appear in the lower right corner of the player to the left of the "Settings" icon. When you click on it, the current frame from the video will be saved to your computer in JPEG format.
What's the price of all this stuff?
It costs nothing. Our services are absolutely free for all users. There are no PRO subscriptions, no restrictions on the number or maximum length of downloaded videos.