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Video tags
Subtitles
Russian
00:00:01
Hello everyone, Michael Nuckey is with you and today00:00:05
the war between Russia and Ukraine has been going on for 300 days,00:00:07
the war that Vladimir00:00:09
Putin started. This is not really a war in the sense00:00:12
that this is only part of it because the00:00:14
war itself was started back in 2014, the war did00:00:17
not end, it continued all00:00:20
these years, but in February of last year,00:00:23
Vladimir Putin staged a new invasion, an00:00:25
invasion of the territory of Ukraine in order to00:00:28
destroy it, the plans of the Russian leadership00:00:30
included the capture of Kiev in 10 days and,00:00:34
accordingly, a fairly quick00:00:36
end to this war, the end of the war as the00:00:39
Kremlin assumed, with its victory, this did not00:00:42
happen, the war continues to this00:00:43
day probably when we are people,00:00:46
so it’s not that we love, we pay00:00:49
attention to some round numbers, 30000:00:51
days is one of them, so I think many00:00:53
today will remember how00:00:56
this war began, how it is going on, what has changed in00:00:59
this war, how the pla00:01:01
woman and how he came up with new ones, but00:01:04
today I want to talk a little about00:01:05
something else. I want to talk about when this00:01:09
war will end, and it’s not like I’m going to00:01:13
give you a specific date or even a year. No,00:01:15
I won’t do that. I just00:01:17
because Nobody knows the future. Let’s go with00:01:19
it. let's accept Let's accept that all00:01:21
the assumptions When Putin will die when00:01:24
he will be overthrown When the war will end00:01:26
when the aliens will arrive It's00:01:29
not all that completely pointless00:01:32
because when people make these kinds of00:01:34
forecasts, they are more interesting than their conclusion and00:01:37
how they come to this Here is the process itself,00:01:39
how why they believe that there the00:01:42
likelihood of Putin’s overthrow has increased00:01:44
or, on the contrary, weakened, and so on and so forth,00:01:47
here the analyst’s arguments already appear.00:01:49
This is quite useful,00:01:50
but today I want to talk to you about00:01:54
what scenarios for this war are possible;00:01:56
they were collected by the Bloomberg agency; I must00:02:00
say that the method they00:02:01
used was quite interesting, but at the same time it00:02:03
has a number of significant limitations,00:02:05
like any methods that are based00:02:07
on data that we already have, which00:02:11
is based on the past, for example,00:02:13
Bloomberg, in order to outline00:02:15
possible strategies for the duration of00:02:17
the conflict, they use the collection of information00:02:21
from previous conflicts that have occurred in00:02:23
recent years in recent decades and00:02:27
based on the fact that they00:02:29
aggregated Yes, they draw some00:02:31
conclusions, well, that is, they look into the past,00:02:33
look at the conflicts that were there,00:02:35
where, what was the balance of power, how long did00:02:37
these conflicts last, and because of this,00:02:39
extrapolates these conclusions to the00:02:42
current situation? the problem is because00:02:45
history is this story that the number of00:02:48
possible options is not predetermined. Well,00:02:51
that is, we can see something that has00:02:52
never happened before and actually00:02:55
human history consists of this.00:02:56
Well, that is, they will still be as00:02:58
usual, then bam something happens00:03:00
and that’s it now the rules of00:03:02
the game have changed in a completely different way, so in their time from00:03:04
nuclear weapons changed a lot the Second00:03:06
World War changed a lot which was even00:03:08
before nuclear weapons began at00:03:10
least and in this sense human00:03:13
history is unpredictable - this is what00:03:15
I always cook for in my videos in on your00:03:17
streams on your posts when they00:03:18
ask me But what will happen there, what will happen there,00:03:20
what will happen there, firstly, I always00:03:22
say that no one knows the future and00:03:24
secondly, I say that nothing is00:03:25
predetermined, well, that is, there is no written00:03:27
or destined fate. -the00:03:30
finale that will inevitably come is00:03:33
our actions, and each person,00:03:35
no matter how it seems to a person, that00:03:38
his actions have little influence on anything. The00:03:40
totality of these00:03:42
actions also matters and determines the history of mankind,00:03:43
so I’m not a fact and I believe that the results00:03:47
depend on the action each individual00:03:50
person that we don’t just decide our own destiny,00:03:53
but we decide the fate of all humanity. But00:03:55
this is such a lyrical digression and00:03:57
parameters that it seems to me important to00:03:58
outline all the necessary reservations.00:04:00
Before we move on to the00:04:02
Bloomberg material, which really00:04:03
turned out to be very interesting, I will be00:04:05
based on its retelling publication of00:04:07
the agency because Bloomberg has00:04:09
not yet released it to the public space.00:04:11
That is, they have it in their own closed00:04:12
service to which journalists have access.00:04:14
I don’t have it, but I asked some00:04:17
to verify it. However, we will00:04:18
consider the agency’s retelling,00:04:20
which came out very well,00:04:22
I will leave a link to it in the description. So00:04:24
First, let's outline what Well, where are00:04:27
we now? The war has been going on for00:04:30
10 months; in fact, both sides are00:04:33
not yet at parity; the initiative is00:04:36
more likely on the side of Ukraine, but00:04:39
nevertheless, the difference in strength is not too00:04:41
great yet and it is difficult to say which side is on00:04:44
now. more power Combat all this00:04:49
happened because in Russia it was not possible00:04:51
to carry out the Blitzkrieg as we know From the00:04:54
large publication of the newer Times which00:04:56
I hope I will soon translate and or00:04:58
use some kind of translation to voice for you00:04:59
and it will be on the channel because00:05:01
such important documents of the era judging by00:05:03
in this publication, Russia did not have a backup00:05:05
plan; Russia put everything on the line; it00:05:07
really didn’t think that it was doing this.00:05:09
Vladimir Putin thought that it would be a00:05:11
calm, systematic, ten-day00:05:14
operation that would allow him to00:05:16
add more territories there to obtain a00:05:17
puppet State and again00:05:19
raise his fame and popularity00:05:21
in Russia; it must be said that The Ukrainian00:05:25
side was not fully prepared for this00:05:27
invasion. Nobody was prepared.00:05:28
Because it initially seemed to them that00:05:30
the group with which Putin wants to00:05:31
carry it out would not be able to carry it out,00:05:34
so they assumed that he00:05:35
would not do this, that he was doing something00:05:37
else, for example, he would go there. in the Donbass00:05:39
to try something or some other00:05:42
maneuvers, but they did not expect that there would be an attack00:05:44
on Kiev because just the number of00:05:46
Russian military personnel And actually the00:05:49
way they prepared indicated that00:05:52
it was unlikely to succeed. However, the capture00:05:55
was really possible because that00:05:57
Russia had precisely a plan to divert the00:05:59
main Ukrainian troops to the Donbass00:06:02
theater of military operations and a quick march to00:06:05
Kiev, which should have led to an00:06:07
immediate effect, Western services00:06:09
also believed in this and they believed that Kiev00:06:11
could really be captured, but it was00:06:13
not possible to capture Kiev even after00:06:15
that Russia got involved in such a00:06:19
long protracted war, Ukraine00:06:21
is fighting back successfully00:06:22
liberating its territory a month ago the00:06:25
city of Kherson was liberated,00:06:26
the only regional center that00:06:28
Russia managed to capture, and from then until00:06:33
then Russia did not have any00:06:35
significant military successes after00:06:37
Lisichansk, which was after00:06:39
Severodonetsk, in fact, Russia00:06:40
was advancing on Severodonetsk,00:06:42
they were in Lisichansk and they withdrew just00:06:46
when they arrived, and after that Russia00:06:49
had no major successes, but now the war is00:06:52
such a protracted one of attrition and we have not00:06:56
seen any serious advances for the last00:06:58
month on either side, in00:07:00
many respects -due to the weather, but nevertheless, this is00:07:02
already such a meat grinder, a meat grinder where a00:07:05
huge number of people die, especially there00:07:07
in the direction of, for example, Bakhmut, where00:07:10
Russia just for some reason decided that for00:07:12
it this is a catastrophically important00:07:14
political point And there it simply00:07:16
sends waves after waves of waves after00:07:18
waves and people are dying Russia00:07:20
mobilized on September 21 and actually00:07:23
expanded the number of military personnel who do not00:07:25
have This is the point we00:07:26
are now, that is, it is difficult to say that00:07:28
one of the sides has any00:07:30
colossal advantage On the other00:07:32
side So now to the Bloomberg analysis00:07:34
to determine the approximate00:07:36
duration of the war between Russia00:07:38
Ukraine Bloomberg used a model00:07:40
based on an analysis of military conflicts00:07:42
over the past 200 years, the agency00:07:44
stipulates that the model does not give a00:07:46
final answer to the question When00:07:48
will the war end? But we discussed all these reservations.00:07:50
According to the00:07:52
Bloomberg model, the average duration of00:07:54
modern wars is approximately 1500:07:56
months, only less 20 percent of00:07:58
conflicts last longer than 30 months And00:08:01
most modern wars00:08:02
end with a peace agreement when00:08:04
this invasion first began, that is,00:08:07
during the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the balance of00:08:10
combat power was turned in favor of Russia00:08:12
but the difference between the capabilities of the two00:08:15
sides is less than the average for 200 years of00:08:17
conflicts model Bloomberg suggests00:08:19
that a small gap in military00:08:21
potential compared to past00:08:23
conflicts is one of the reasons why00:08:26
we can expect a long00:08:28
duration of this war, that is,00:08:30
when some advantage of one of the00:08:33
parties is overwhelming, it reduces the duration of the00:08:36
conflict because, again, as a00:08:38
rule, if you more combat power,00:08:40
then you can put more pressure on the00:08:42
enemy more actively. And in this way, the conflict00:08:44
ends in favor of the country that has00:08:46
more combat power. Separately,00:08:48
Bloomberg adds that another00:08:51
factor that can lead to00:08:52
prolongation of the conflict is the strategy00:08:54
that the side was chosen if Russia00:08:56
completes its transition from the main00:08:58
strategy used now is00:09:00
attrition and focus on the00:09:02
punishment strategy as they call it Bloomberg we will00:09:05
talk later about what this is that the00:09:07
duration of the war could00:09:08
double compared to the00:09:10
status quo that is how long00:09:12
wars usually are for at least the last00:09:15
200 years and so what kind of military00:09:17
strategies are these, as Vlomberg journalists talk about it,00:09:20
Bloomberg researchers, in total, the00:09:22
model allows for three military strategies. The00:09:24
first is a strategy of maneuver, these are attacks00:09:27
that are focused on quickly seizing00:09:29
territory and not destroying the enemy. The00:09:32
second strategy is a strategy of attrition00:09:34
in which the emphasis is on capture and00:09:37
destruction. enemy forces without the00:09:39
obligatory rapid advance,00:09:40
the third is a punishment strategy00:09:43
aimed at inflicting the00:09:45
greatest damage on the enemy in order to break his will00:09:48
in the fight, while the parties do not necessarily engage00:09:50
in a direct collision, strikes can be delivered by00:09:52
missiles or carried out by00:09:55
guerrilla methods, as00:09:57
Bloomberg notes now, the Russian army00:09:59
has switched from the strategy of maneuver that00:10:01
was at the beginning of this invasion to the00:10:04
strategy of attrition,00:10:07
elements of the strategy of punishment also appeared.00:10:09
So, according to Bloomberg, the most likely00:10:12
scenarios for a further conflict, the first00:10:14
scenario assumes that the balance of forces00:10:16
remains unchanged and the parties continue to00:10:19
adhere to the strategy of attrition in00:10:21
this case, the war will last 30 months00:10:24
until mid-2024 then there is 23 and00:10:30
then 2024 the second scenario00:10:33
proposed by Bloomberg Russia is completing the00:10:36
transition to a punishment strategy In this00:10:39
scenario, the conflict can last almost00:10:41
forever Well, that is, what is the story that00:10:44
such long shellings that do not00:10:48
aim to immediately seize00:10:50
territory Here and now they can be00:10:52
carried out and without a direct attempt to seize00:10:56
territory and therefore they can00:10:58
last for a very, very long time, that is,00:11:01
they are not standardized according to any time frame, all00:11:04
this can be a semi-frozen conflict00:11:06
in which both sides attack00:11:09
each other periodically and accordingly00:11:11
try to inflict blows and damage to the00:11:14
infrastructure of the institution and everything00:11:17
else Such a scenario, as00:11:19
Bloomberg reports, according to their model, has no00:11:22
time limits, that is, such a00:11:24
half-frozen conflict with which00:11:26
people still continue to die,00:11:28
some objects of the country continue to be simply destroyed,00:11:30
continue to live in such war00:11:33
conditions, this does not have any00:11:37
long period of time, the third scenario is one of the00:11:39
bloodiest Russia is carrying out a full00:11:42
mobilization this could be politically00:11:45
risky notes Bloomberg because00:11:47
Russia hasn't had a full mobilization since World00:11:49
War II But this will00:11:51
widen the military capability gap in a00:11:54
colossal way and00:11:57
thus shorten the projected00:11:59
end of the conflict so the scenario00:12:01
shifts the expected end of the conflict00:12:03
for the middle of next year,00:12:06
but again, let's talk about this00:12:10
scenario here. In detail what it could00:12:12
look like, it means full mobilization,00:12:14
I mean straight full, not in the sense00:12:17
that this is the antonym of the partial mobilization00:12:20
that was now because now it’s00:12:22
like the mobilization that was It was00:12:24
general but not complete general because it00:12:27
concerned everyone, that is, they could take00:12:29
anyone and they grabbed everyone in a row, but it was00:12:31
limited in the number of people who00:12:33
wanted to recruit; full mobilization00:12:35
is when all reservists, that is,00:12:38
all men in Russia over00:12:40
18 years old, can be called upon to be put00:12:44
under arms and sent to the front, that is, a00:12:46
gigantic number of people, it’s difficult to00:12:48
say that this is exactly 25 million, as00:12:51
Shoigu said, but these are Millions of people, and00:12:54
if these Millions of people00:12:55
end up at the front, then the ratio of00:12:58
combat power to the number of just people00:13:00
at the front will be strongly not in favor of00:13:03
Ukraine and thus Bloomberg00:13:05
suggests that this conflict may00:13:06
end faster, but Russia’s victories They00:13:09
themselves note the risks associated with this. And00:13:12
in general, this scenario seems00:13:14
unlikely to me, firstly because00:13:16
complete mobilization in Russia. Especially00:13:18
considering that we have seen how00:13:20
even 300 thousand people are mobilized, yes with00:13:23
big problems with a lot of discontent00:13:25
with a lack of equipment, logistics and everything00:13:27
else,00:13:28
imagining a complete mobilization within the framework of00:13:31
which Millions of people will go to the front00:13:33
is problematic, especially if we are not00:13:35
so much directly concerned with the people of possible00:13:37
riots and everything connected with this, but00:13:39
if we are concerned with the equipment of weapons,00:13:42
equipment and other things, where does everything come from? take this,00:13:45
yes, you can urgently set up factories in a non00:13:47
-stop mode; selling women means00:13:49
working in these factories, but the fact is00:13:51
that00:13:52
even if you have 9 women, you won’t00:13:55
be able to give birth to a child, which means in a month,00:13:58
following the00:14:00
common aphorism. Therefore, even00:14:02
if they are all super-powerful, they will even00:14:04
mobilize if women to the front And there it00:14:06
means all the Old Men in the factories with their children, it’s00:14:08
very difficult to imagine this00:14:11
whole gigantic attack will be possible, which means00:14:13
somehow00:14:14
equipping it just for the sake of being able to be in a capable00:14:17
state; moreover, most likely there00:14:20
will be some responses to full mobilization00:14:22
from the West but he still has00:14:24
quite a large room for maneuver. Yes, for00:14:27
now the West is limited exclusively to00:14:29
arms supplies, with a very00:14:31
limited range of weapons and00:14:33
limited quantities; if the West00:14:35
decides that00:14:38
now is the time to use more of00:14:41
its resources, then again this can00:14:42
seriously change the situation. Not to mention the00:14:45
political risks within Russia, yes00:14:48
Again, very small, as long as you00:14:50
remember, bloggers said one percent of a00:14:53
pack of marmalade caused a rather sharp00:14:55
reaction and a dramatic drop in00:14:58
Putin’s rating, then complete mobilization, but it00:15:01
could lead to real, let’s00:15:03
say, riots and discontent because,00:15:06
well, the scale will be simply gigantic and there00:15:08
will be problems a lot, but about the00:15:10
supply of weapons, just the fourth00:15:12
scenario, the fourth scenario00:15:13
provides for a decisive shift in the00:15:15
balance of power towards Ukraine, this00:15:18
is possible in the event of a drop in the morale of00:15:21
Russian soldiers, although much lower, or00:15:24
if Washington and the West provide00:15:27
Kiev with more modern weapons in00:15:29
large quantities, which will speed up the end00:15:32
war in favor of Ukraine is00:15:35
the most negative scenario. According to00:15:37
the model, it allows for the continuation of the war until00:15:40
2160. This will happen00:15:43
if Russia no longer resorts to00:15:46
mobilization and chooses a00:15:48
punishment strategy. That is, this is the strategy00:15:49
that we have already discussed. However,00:15:51
do the forecasts say that the accuracy of00:15:53
such a forecast is low. Well, that is, again,00:15:55
you need to understand that this is all00:15:57
a Model that calculates everything itself,00:15:58
so the numbers are very arbitrary. You and I are00:16:01
not interested in the specific, meaning this is the year00:16:03
in which We are promised graduation, but simply00:16:06
an understanding of what scenarios and how can00:16:09
turn this board the most likely00:16:12
The scenario seems to be, of course, an00:16:14
increase in assistance from strange Western countries; the00:16:17
overwhelming advantage that00:16:19
Ukraine receives in connection with the receipt of00:16:21
this assistance; low morale on the00:16:23
part of Russian soldiers, which will be00:16:25
lower the more they recruit and,00:16:29
accordingly, Victory of Ukraine. I don’t know00:16:31
when; again, it seems to me no one will do this00:16:34
will say But at least with a high00:16:36
degree of confidence about the feelings00:16:38
next year, but these are exclusively my00:16:40
feelings. But the main thing here is to understand that a00:16:43
lot depends on all these00:16:46
variables, which in many ways must00:16:49
reach the West first. Well, that00:16:52
is, the West must understand that there is no00:16:54
scenario that you can help Lucy a little bit,00:16:56
they actually help a lot00:16:58
with weapons, but what is there, what is the00:17:00
line where you need to stop, you never know00:17:02
What Well, the longer this all00:17:05
happens, the more protracted the conflict will be00:17:08
and the worse the consequences will be00:17:10
for the whole world including the same00:17:13
West, so this understanding must00:17:15
somehow reach them in order for them to00:17:18
increase supplies. You know, I00:17:21
recently talked with, let’s say, Western00:17:25
specialists and they have this00:17:27
strange idea that it’s as if00:17:29
there are two Russias, which means one Russia is00:17:31
now at war with Ukraine And the second Russia00:17:33
is Russia that threatens the West, and00:17:36
somehow in our interactions with them I00:17:39
tried to explain to them that this is one and the00:17:40
same Russia. Yes, that defeating00:17:43
Russia, which is fighting with Ukraine, is in the00:17:47
future and in the present the absence of00:17:49
the opportunity for Russia to attack to00:17:51
the countries of the West, after all, if you are following, you00:17:53
saw that our West says that we have00:17:55
supplied all the weapons that were00:17:57
conditionally superfluous. Well, that is, in reserve and all that00:17:59
remains is what we need to00:18:01
protect ourselves, and here is the logical question of00:18:04
protection from whom00:18:06
Russia is fighting. completely00:18:08
immersed in this conflict, so I00:18:10
hope that this understanding will00:18:12
come more and more. Judging by the00:18:14
latest statements, the West00:18:17
understands more and more what is happening and expresses00:18:19
support for Ukraine not only with you but also with00:18:21
supplies, Risha Sunok from00:18:24
the UK said that next00:18:25
year we will deliver no less than in the00:18:27
past, and Great Britain supplied a lot of00:18:29
weapons to Ukraine, catch Schultz,00:18:32
instead of some you know, like jelly00:18:35
stories, says that Germany will00:18:38
support Ukraine as long as00:18:39
he needs to go to the toilet, and he is00:18:41
Stoltenberg, the Secretary General of NATO, and00:18:44
in this sense, this is the only option00:18:46
which is positive and possible, this is00:18:49
the only option that will end00:18:51
the conflict quickly in favor of Ukraine,00:18:54
which was attacked and without the possibility of Russia00:18:57
to create a fuss,00:19:00
including in European countries.00:19:03
I found this model from Bloomberg00:19:05
interesting to discuss, I don’t know. Write00:19:07
in the comments How do you like this I00:19:08
periodically come across some00:19:09
interesting publications, in my opinion,00:19:11
that I would be happy to discuss with you00:19:13
and then read your comments. What do00:19:14
you think about this? I will say one last00:19:17
thing at the end of this video, you need to00:19:18
understand that these models and all the judgment00:19:21
despite a bunch of disclaimers which I00:19:22
gave, I am sure that00:19:24
it always does disastrous disclaimers00:19:26
to give, no one pays attention to them00:19:28
when the discussion moves on. But I will00:19:30
also add one thing that all this does not take into account00:19:34
possible changes within Russia, and that00:19:37
is, the possibility of some attempt00:19:40
by the Elite to correct their situation and,00:19:42
accordingly to get rid of Putin or00:19:44
physically eliminate him or hand him over,00:19:47
this does not include oneself, it is possible and I don’t00:19:50
know there will be massive mobilizations as00:19:52
it was in the First World War and much00:19:54
more. That is, this model is exclusively00:19:55
military.00:19:57
And war is a very subtle art where00:20:00
anything can happen and there are armies that00:20:03
they defeat those who are superior to them and very00:20:06
much And war is generally a subtle subtle00:20:10
art; its only thing that is00:20:12
not perceived as art in Russia in the00:20:14
Russian army, but that is actually why00:20:17
they have such results, the Ukrainian00:20:18
military and the Ukrainian army, firstly, have00:20:22
high morals because they they defend00:20:23
their land, they defend their homeland, they00:20:26
defend their loved ones and they see what the00:20:27
Russian army does to them when00:20:29
it captures cities. Yes, there is00:20:31
chaos in the execution filtering00:20:34
and secondly, this is a really very00:20:37
talented army leadership that00:20:39
makes cunning interesting maneuvers Well,00:20:43
because war is mostly parts are00:20:44
deception, that is, deception of expectations, such 3D00:20:47
chess mixed with poker, and in this00:20:51
sense, of course, there is only one task00:20:54
to provide the Ukrainian army with everything and00:20:59
only the West can help it cope with this task. Well, at the same time, putting pressure on00:21:01
Russia with sanctions and so on and so forth and00:21:03
so on In general These are the possible00:21:06
options for ending the conflict Write in00:21:09
the comments When you think the war00:21:11
will end, you know then when it will00:21:13
end on a specific date You have00:21:14
a lot of comments Write for sure00:21:16
there will be comments Where the date will be00:21:17
indicated Exactly For one of them, well,00:21:19
just by distribution, that is if00:21:21
you all Write different and then it will00:21:22
turn out that you guessed conditionally,00:21:25
we will then go around with this screenshot and00:21:27
talk, here among us was the octopus00:21:30
Paul or Nostradamus, who likes who better,00:21:31
but Michael Nucky was with you00:21:33
subscribe to the channel, like it,00:21:35
support it on Patreon link to00:21:37
Patreon will be in the description all the best00:21:38
ByeDescription:
Поддержать канал и выход новых роликов: https://www.patreon.com/macknack Сегодня 300 дней с начала вторжения России на территорию Украины. Но всех сейчас интересует не сколько прошло, а сколько осталось. Агентство Bloomberg построило модель, исходя из того, какие стратегии изберут Россия и Украина с точки зрения боевых действий. Проанализировав конфликты за последние 200 лет, было выдвинуто несколько возможных сценариев. О них – в сегодняшнем видео. Материал Агентства: https://t.me/agentstvonews/2149 Майкл Наки. Соцсети: телеграм: https://t.me/Nackepelo инстаграм: https://www.facebook.com/unsupportedbrowser
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