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Video tags
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Russian
00:00:00
good day in the aftermath of Victoria Nan's00:00:06
resignation and of course not directly00:00:08
connected to it00:00:11
though as some wise man once said00:00:14
everything is connected and certainly in00:00:17
politics it is or certainly in00:00:18
geopolitics it is anyway in the00:00:21
aftermath of Victoria nuland's00:00:24
resignation we've now had to very00:00:28
disturbing addresses by two important00:00:33
Western leaders one is President Biden00:00:36
who has just delivered his State of the00:00:38
Union00:00:39
Address and the other is President macr00:00:43
of France who has spoken to a private00:00:48
Gathering of the faction leaders of the00:00:52
Parliamentary factions in the French00:00:56
Parliament both speeches if if I can00:01:00
call them that were controversial to say00:01:03
the00:01:04
least and I'm going to return to them00:01:07
later in this program but before I do I00:01:11
think I will follow my traditional00:01:15
course which is provide a brief down00:01:17
rundown of the situation on the front00:01:21
lines in the Ukraine conflict which is00:01:25
the conflict which is the Catalyst00:01:28
behind all of these events00:01:31
and which perhaps provides the00:01:34
explanation for the edgy atmosphere we00:01:39
see we seeing start to develop both in00:01:41
the United States and in Europe now the00:01:46
first thing to say is that over the last00:01:48
2400:01:50
hours we have received as we sometimes00:01:53
do less information from the00:01:56
battlefronts that is not a sit a reason00:02:00
however to think that the situation on00:02:03
the battlefronts is slackening the00:02:06
Russian defense Ministry has provided us00:02:08
with its weekly00:02:10
update of the situation over the00:02:14
previous week in00:02:16
Ukraine and um the week before Ukrainian00:02:22
combat losses dead and wounded according00:02:25
to the Russian defense Ministry with00:02:28
7,300:02:30
95 the week that has just passed they00:02:34
were at the same general level00:02:40
7,285 Ukrainian losses according to the00:02:43
Russian defense Ministry continue to00:02:47
be astonishingly heavy um I00:02:53
think at the heaviest level since the00:02:56
early weeks of the war00:03:00
and the Russian defense Ministry update00:03:03
provides us with some idea of where the00:03:06
heaviest fighting is going on firstly it00:03:10
does seem as if there has been renewed a00:03:13
renewal of the fighting in the Kens00:03:16
Leeman Direction we've not been getting00:03:19
a huge amount of information about00:03:22
what's been going on there but the00:03:24
Russian defense Ministry talks about uh00:03:27
the Russian troops having improved moved00:03:30
uh their positions along the front lines00:03:34
and that they've eliminated Ukrainian00:03:37
troops in various places and have00:03:40
repelled counterattacks and the two00:03:42
towns or Villages that they specifically00:03:44
refer to00:03:46
ovka which is close to Kens and tery00:03:50
which is on the jeret river somewhere to00:03:54
the00:03:55
South now there have been reports over00:03:59
over the last two weeks or so about00:04:03
Russian attacks on tery and claims that00:04:07
the Russians have captured another00:04:08
Village called00:04:10
MFA of the jeret river the Russian00:04:14
defense Ministry has not00:04:16
confirmed those claims about the00:04:18
captures the capture of either tery or00:04:23
mka I understand that there is actually00:04:27
fighting going on iny00:04:31
itself and certainly it looks as if00:04:33
there's been a significant optic in the00:04:37
casualties in this part of the00:04:39
battlefronts there's also some reason to00:04:43
believe that the Russians have advanced00:04:47
or achieved advances more advances in00:04:50
the Sova area but again it's difficult00:04:54
to get a precise sense of what is00:04:58
happening what I will will say is this00:05:01
the Ukrainian authorities seem to be00:05:03
extremely worried about the general00:05:05
situation in harak region they have00:05:09
apparently announced the00:05:12
evacuation of the population from a00:05:14
large number of villages in harff region00:05:18
which strongly suggests that they expect00:05:21
that there's going to be heavy fighting00:05:24
in those Villages before very long there00:05:27
were Model reports I get to discuss this00:05:31
in more detail later in this program00:05:34
about the ukrainians creating fortified00:05:37
positions in harv City00:05:42
itself clearly fighting is going on the00:05:46
level of fighting has increased the00:05:49
Russians have told us that the00:05:50
ukrainians have lost00:05:53
540 men dead and wounded in the kupan00:05:57
Lan area over the last week which is00:06:00
more than we've00:06:01
seen in earlier weeks in more recent00:06:05
weeks but one senses still that this is00:06:08
the quiet before the storm one hears00:06:12
reports of huge Russian forces gathering00:06:16
on the northern border of Haru region00:06:20
within Russia itself in the area of00:06:22
belgorod which the ukrainians by the way00:06:25
still sporadically shell and of course00:06:28
the Russians are strongly positioned00:06:30
around kpens and to in in close to the00:06:37
jeret river in the South and it could be00:06:41
that before long this is where the next00:06:44
Blow from the Russians will00:06:47
fall but other than that we can see that00:06:52
the major fighting over the last week00:06:56
continued to be in three places00:07:00
firstly bmud the area around bmud and00:07:03
the Russian defense Ministry refers to00:07:05
fighting near clva kumova00:07:09
andreka and crno crno is of course Ian00:07:14
at least the name for this Village is00:07:17
Ivanka the Russians refer to it as kasno00:07:21
there are multiple reports that the00:07:23
Russians now control most of this00:07:25
Village they're also heavily bombing you00:07:29
Ukrainian positions in the fields to the00:07:33
west of00:07:35
ianka and they are00:07:37
pounding00:07:39
chfar the town which all the indications00:07:42
are that they eventually intend to storm00:07:47
and the bombing of chfa has been00:07:50
Relentless and it continues to be00:07:52
ongoing and there are reports that JF00:07:55
yah is being in effect leveled that it00:07:59
is essentially being00:08:01
destroyed in anticipation of the Russian00:08:04
Advance upon00:08:06
it that will follow the fall the00:08:09
imminent fall of00:08:11
Ivanka now there's been speculation00:08:15
about what the Russians might be00:08:17
planning to do once ianka Falls once00:08:21
they reach the Chas ofak Canal which is00:08:25
which they will certainly be able to do00:08:27
once ianca Falls there's been some00:08:30
suggestions that they would be more00:08:32
likely to advance northward along the00:08:34
canal towards sasque my own personal00:08:38
view is that if they're if they're00:08:40
bombing00:08:42
Chua as intensively as they have been00:08:44
doing that clearly indicates that their00:08:47
objective is to capture chuard itself in00:08:52
which case another00:08:55
important town in this chess B Bo of00:08:59
towns large small towns and Villages00:09:03
that makes up donbass will fall and of00:09:07
course chaia apparently is on higher00:09:11
ground and other places like Constantino00:09:15
to the West are on Lower ground and it00:09:18
could it could be in that case that the00:09:21
Russian00:09:23
offensive westwards toward katos and00:09:27
Beyond katos to the Nea River will at00:09:32
this point start to00:09:34
gain faster momentum anyway very heavy00:09:38
fighting in this area and we learn that00:09:44
in this area specifically over the last00:09:46
week the ukrainians Lost00:09:50
1,970 men dead and wounded almost 2,00000:09:56
in other words along with 11 tanks 1700:10:00
armored00:10:01
vehicles and 25 field artillery00:10:05
guns so Ukrainian losses in this area00:10:10
very high according to the Russian00:10:13
defense Ministry of course they don't00:10:15
provide us with details of their own00:10:17
losses I will come to that shortly but00:10:21
the biggest most intense fighting of00:10:27
all is is in the area of00:10:33
afka and here according to the Russian00:10:36
defense Ministry the ukrainians Lost00:10:40
2,860 men dead and wounded over the last00:10:44
week including seven00:10:47
tanks of which two were Abraham's tanks00:10:51
34 armored fighting00:10:53
Vehicles 20 field artillery pieces and00:10:58
one high M multiple launch rocket system00:11:02
and in fact we've seen film of the00:11:04
destruction of that high mass vehicle so00:11:09
huge number of Ukrainian losses in the00:11:13
abva sector over the course of the last00:11:17
week as I've discussed it seems that at00:11:20
the back00:11:22
end of of the week before the Russians00:11:27
stormed orof00:11:29
bichi00:11:31
and Tona these three villages that make00:11:35
up the current Ukrainian defense line00:11:40
syki the newly appointed commander of00:11:43
the Ukrainian military then launched a00:11:48
Counterattack putting together what00:11:50
reserves he had and committing some of00:11:53
Ukraine's best units to it they were00:11:56
able to knock the Russians back back in00:11:59
all three of these Villages and take00:12:02
control over them but the fighting has00:12:05
been intense and the Ukrainian losses00:12:08
have been extremely heavy now the latest00:12:12
reports that I've seen continue to say00:12:15
that the Russians are now well on the00:12:18
way to recapturing or finally00:12:22
consolidating control of orlovka and00:12:26
orlovka as I've discussed before is the00:12:30
village in the middle toner is to the00:12:33
South berichi is to the00:12:35
north if the Russians are able to00:12:38
consolidate control of orlovka and of00:12:42
the fields around orlovka and there's00:12:45
some suggestions that they are in fact00:12:47
gradually gaining control of the fields00:12:50
then torena becomes00:12:53
undefendable and before long berichi00:12:57
does also and that point this hurridly00:13:01
improvised Ukrainian defense00:13:04
line which Ukraine is defending at such00:13:08
enormous cost that this defense line00:13:11
will then start to00:13:13
collapse one point I would make which is00:13:16
interesting is that Ukraine lost more00:13:18
tanks according to the Russians in the00:13:22
bakut area over the last week than in00:13:25
the adeva area 11 tanks00:13:29
in the bahmut area seven tanks in the00:13:34
adeva area which suggests to me at least00:13:38
that Ukraine tried more counterattacks00:13:43
actually in the O in the bwood area over00:13:46
the course of last week than they did in00:13:49
the adka area most of the fighting in00:13:53
the avva area is becoming a slug match00:13:56
for these two vill for these three00:13:58
villages with the ukrainians of course00:14:01
massively00:14:02
outgunned by the Russians out bombed by00:14:06
the Russians the Russian Air Force is00:14:08
now is as I've said in many programs now00:14:13
very active and all the indications00:14:16
being that it is the ukrainians not the00:14:19
Russians who are suffering the big00:14:21
losses in this area and then lastly we00:14:25
have more reports from the Russians00:14:28
about fighting going on in the South00:14:33
donet Direction this is a huge area that00:14:38
um appears to00:14:41
include places like um vad and staro00:14:47
mayor and others and here we're told00:14:51
that the ukrainians Lost00:14:53
1,620 men killed and00:14:57
wounded and00:14:59
um also um that they lost six tanks now00:15:04
elsewhere in the00:15:06
fighting it's been on a much smaller00:15:09
scale so for example in zapar roia00:15:11
region zaparo and hon region where00:15:16
there's been much talk about some big00:15:18
Russian offensive around robotino00:15:22
according to the Russians Ukrainian00:15:24
losses here were 29 five soldiers killed00:15:31
or wounded so this is also where two00:15:35
High m multiple Lodge rocket systems00:15:38
were destroyed both on the West Bank of00:15:43
the NEPA in hon region there's a lot of00:15:48
reporting and discussion about what's00:15:49
going on in roboo ver and those sort of00:15:54
places but in fact the actual situation00:15:59
points to the main fighting continuing00:16:02
to happen in central dbass around00:16:07
marinka around um00:16:11
ABA and around bmud there may be a big00:16:16
offensive coming in the North in KH00:16:19
region but for the moment at least00:16:24
zapia hon the areas where Ukraine00:16:28
launched it's offensive last00:16:31
summer that area looks like a sideshow00:16:34
compared to the major fighting that's go00:16:38
taking place00:16:40
elsewhere00:16:43
now I've discussed some of the situation00:16:46
in avva the fact that the Russians seem00:16:48
to be focusing on capturing00:16:50
orlovka and by the way also inflicting00:16:54
very very heavy losses on the Ukrainian00:16:57
forces00:16:59
um perhaps the most dramatic news00:17:04
however continues to come further south00:17:06
of AFA in the marinka area um there are00:17:10
now lots of reports that the Russians00:17:13
are gaining more ground within00:17:16
krasnogorovka00:17:19
korovka small town near to donet city00:17:23
population before the war around00:17:26
14,000 so smaller than ABA whose00:17:30
population before the war was around00:17:34
30,000 but slightly bigger than marinka00:17:37
which had a population of about um00:17:41
10,000 before the war this is just to00:17:44
give a sense of the scale of these00:17:46
places that are being fought over00:17:50
graor like abva and Mar marinka heavily00:17:54
fortified by00:17:56
Ukraine um one of the the major towns00:17:59
one of the major points rather locations00:18:02
from which Ukraine has shelled donet00:18:06
City there has by the way been a00:18:10
significant dropping off of shelling of00:18:12
Donette City since avva fell and since00:18:16
the Russians were able to capture the00:18:19
villages to the west of avava so the00:18:22
fall of AA has already had a certain00:18:25
effect if korovka is captured Ukraine00:18:30
will have lost all the major fortified00:18:33
positions it created close to donet city00:18:38
and which it used to conduct what was in00:18:40
effect its 8year Siege of donet city00:18:45
pesy fell in August00:18:48
2022 marinka fell in December00:18:52
2023 of DEA fell in February 20200:18:58
fall and it looks like00:19:01
korovka will fall at some point over the00:19:05
next few weeks or months the Russians00:19:09
have been bombing kog gorova00:19:13
relentlessly and it seems that they are00:19:15
gradually00:19:16
advancing and they're also in the00:19:20
process of storming these villages to00:19:22
the north of00:19:24
korovka and in particular the small00:19:28
small town of peral May mayos which they00:19:32
are00:19:35
apparently um they've by now captured00:19:38
the greater part of it so a big battle00:19:42
taking place there and again most of the00:19:46
reports suggest that the Russians are00:19:50
within a few days now of completing the00:19:53
capture of Noel mikova to the South of00:19:59
marinka which is this big Village about00:20:03
1,400 people before the war which um00:20:08
would enable the00:20:09
Russians once they've captured this00:20:11
Village to start00:20:14
progressively cutting the supply lines00:20:17
to00:20:18
vadada the major fortified00:20:22
Ukrainian town in the south of00:20:26
Donas control in the positions Ukrainian00:20:31
positions of00:20:32
dbas in the00:20:34
South now I would quickly add that there00:20:37
has been one slightly strange fact about00:20:41
this00:20:42
Russian defense Ministry update which is00:20:46
that some of the places where the00:20:49
heaviest fighting is taking00:20:52
place korovka for00:20:55
example and um00:20:58
novel00:21:00
mikova well I can't find any reference00:21:04
in this Russian defense Ministry update00:21:07
to00:21:08
them and of course this is00:21:11
becoming the pattern now when fighting00:21:17
is taking place intensively within a00:21:20
particular location with the Russians00:21:23
perhaps expecting to capture it00:21:26
reasonably soon the pattern from the00:21:29
Russians is to say less about what's00:21:31
going on in that00:21:34
particular location and in fact00:21:37
sometimes it00:21:39
drops entirely out of the defense00:21:43
Ministry updates and that seems to be00:21:46
the case with these two places um00:21:50
korovka and Novo mikova at the moment00:21:54
anyway that is the situation on the00:21:56
front lines the Russians continuing to00:21:59
exert enormous pressure on Ukraine and00:22:03
we now have report after report article00:22:06
after article appearing in the western00:22:08
media all of them telling us that the00:22:11
situation for Ukraine is becoming00:22:13
critical and that Ukraine is running00:22:16
short of men and equipment and machines00:22:21
and this I think there's uh an article00:22:24
somewhere that says that they're00:22:26
starting to run short of Tanks as well00:22:29
so not just ammunition not just um air00:22:34
defense missiles apparently the00:22:36
situation with air defense missiles is00:22:39
becoming00:22:41
critical but also apparently tanks also00:22:44
which may explain why the ukrainians00:22:47
have been obliged to deploy more of00:22:50
their tanks the Abraham's tanks they00:22:53
precious Abraham's tanks to places like00:22:57
berichi00:22:58
where we have confirmation that at least00:23:01
three of these tanks have been00:23:06
destroyed so a grim picture and one00:23:11
becoming Grimmer by the hour and one00:23:15
which as I said explains the edgy mood00:23:19
in the in Europe and on the part of some00:23:22
people also as we will come to shortly00:23:26
in the United States00:23:28
but before I turn to those topics just a00:23:32
few more things to say firstly there's00:23:35
been00:23:37
confirmation the general Zusi the former00:23:41
U military commander of the Ukrainian00:23:43
Armed Forces sacked by president00:23:47
zalinski following a00:23:49
complex and difficult power struggle um00:23:55
anyway despite his00:23:58
constant00:24:00
refusals to um apparently accept00:24:04
hecking once he was00:24:07
sacked he did what he had previously00:24:11
told zalinski that he wouldn't do which00:24:14
is that he's agreed to be appointed00:24:17
Ukraine's ambassador to the United00:24:20
Kingdom so he's coming to London where00:24:23
he will presumably be replacing his00:24:25
former boss Alexa re nikov the former00:24:29
Ukrainian defense minister who is the00:24:31
previous Ambassador I wonder what is00:24:34
becoming of resnikoff where he's going00:24:37
to but anyway Zusi is coming to London00:24:41
which from zelinsky's point of view00:24:44
removes zusy from the scene zusy had00:24:48
become a major focus of00:24:51
loyalty within the Ukrainian Army his00:24:54
popularity was overtaking zelinsky's00:24:58
own in Ukraine in fact left it far00:25:02
behind the dismissal was very unpopular00:25:05
with the wider Ukrainian public much of00:25:10
the West was not happy about it either00:25:14
there was a general groan when General00:25:16
syki was appointed to take over um Z's00:25:21
place but despite many expectations and00:25:25
I suspect some hopes that Z would lead00:25:28
some kind of opposition to zalinski he's00:25:33
decided instead to do that which he had00:25:36
previously refused to do which is take00:25:39
the job of ambassador to00:25:42
Britain now why has Eloy done that well00:25:46
it could be because he's come to the00:25:48
conclusion that zelinsky's position is00:25:51
too secure and that there is no real P00:25:54
point in challenging zalinski or if it00:25:57
could be that General Zusi doesn't want00:26:01
to become a focus of opposition to00:26:05
zalinski at a time when he feels that00:26:09
National Unity within Ukraine is00:26:12
imperative given that Ukraine is at War00:26:16
I have to say I don't believe either of00:26:20
these00:26:21
explanations the second one is00:26:25
particularly improbable00:26:28
given that zi as we saw was perfectly00:26:32
ready to ca the divisions and ruptures00:26:36
within00:26:40
Ukraine whilst he was military commander00:26:44
he spent his time leaking unflattering00:26:49
comments about zalinski to the telegram00:26:51
channels Ukrainian telegram channels and00:26:55
he outright refused um zelinsky's00:26:58
repeated requests to stand down from his00:27:03
job those are not the actions of00:27:07
somebody00:27:09
who00:27:10
places the cause of national00:27:15
Unity at the as the very highest00:27:19
priority um as for zelinsky's position00:27:23
being Beyond00:27:25
challenge I saw the other day A00:27:29
Commentary by David00:27:32
aramia the head of um zelinsky's party00:27:37
in the Ukrainian Parliament the rer and00:27:40
aramia was saying that the the rer the00:27:43
parliament is today almost deserted00:27:46
nobody really wants to be there most of00:27:48
the time and the demoralization is so00:27:52
extreme that essentially enthusiasm for00:27:57
po participating in the electoral00:27:59
process has gone that doesn't suggest an00:28:04
enthusiastic core of people willing to00:28:07
stand by zalinski in this time of Crisis00:28:11
my own view of course I haven't spoken00:28:14
to zusy so I don't know this for a fact00:28:17
but my own view is that zusy has decided00:28:21
to go to London because he wants to be00:28:25
out of the scene out of00:28:30
place out of00:28:31
Ukraine because he senses that at some00:28:34
point over the next few months00:28:37
everything is going to start to fall00:28:39
apart and he doesn't want to be a part00:28:43
of that he wants to00:28:45
be safe and away from00:28:50
London before that happens and before00:28:56
anybody is is quick enough to pin at00:28:59
least part of the blame on him so that's00:29:02
delusion as for00:29:04
zalinski well apparently he's soon again00:29:08
going to be on his travels he spends00:29:12
much of his time now as much of his time00:29:14
as he can not just outside Kiev but00:29:18
outside Ukraine as well his latest00:29:22
destination apparently is turkey he's00:29:25
apparently hoping who knows what he's00:29:28
hoping to achieve in Turkey maybe he's00:29:30
hoping to get the Turks to supply him00:29:32
with 155 mm shells or other military00:29:36
equipment who00:29:38
knows um erdogan has shown a certain00:29:42
willingness to do things like that in00:29:45
the past partly I suspect to needle the00:29:48
Russians but erdogan obviously can see00:29:52
the way the wind is blowing he's had a00:29:54
very friendly conversation with Putin00:29:58
recently um he's apparently Keen to get00:30:03
cooperation from the Russians to build00:30:05
another nuclear power station in Turkey00:30:09
it's apparently discussions about the00:30:11
Russian between the Russians and the00:30:13
Turks about that I've just reading been00:30:16
reading about it in interfax the00:30:19
interfax news agency so Mo most00:30:24
likely zalinski will go to Turkey00:30:27
looking for well whatever he can find00:30:30
there hoping to get more support from00:30:34
erdogan But ultimately like all of his00:30:38
recent00:30:39
visits the main purpose is to get it's00:30:44
to get zalinski out of Ukraine and out00:30:48
of00:30:49
Kiev just saying00:30:52
so um that's the movements of zalinsky00:30:56
and illusionary now I have to say that00:31:02
there have been00:31:03
two governmental decisions important00:31:06
governmental decisions made in Ukraine00:31:09
recently one is that the ukrainians00:31:12
Apparently still unable to00:31:14
agree on a mobilization00:31:20
law that law still00:31:24
stuck in the Ukrainian Parliament but as00:31:29
paradoxically even though they can't00:31:31
agree to mobilize more people at at a00:31:34
time when the Ukrainian Army is agreed00:31:37
to be suffering from severe shortages of00:31:41
Manpower and at a time when General z um00:31:46
General sirki is supposed to come up00:31:49
with an audit which found that this00:31:52
nobody can locate 700,000 men who are00:31:57
supposed to be in the Ukrainian military00:31:59
there's no idea of where they are what's00:32:01
become of them um at at a time like this00:32:05
when the situation on the front lines is00:32:08
cracking the one thing Ukraine has00:32:11
managed to do and which zalinsky has00:32:14
signed off on is pass not a mobilization00:32:17
law but a00:32:20
demobilization law there's been a lot of00:32:23
discussion about this which this00:32:26
seemingly parad toxical decision um some00:32:29
are suggesting that this is a way for00:32:33
Ukraine to conceal the scale of its00:32:35
losses pretend that men who have died or00:32:40
been critically wounded have instead00:32:42
been just been mobilized and that's why00:32:44
they're not appearing on the roles of00:32:48
the regiments it's probably something00:32:50
some part of that but I suspect also00:32:55
that it's partly a another attempt by00:32:58
zalinsky to shore up domestic support in00:33:01
Ukraine he senses that the mood in the00:33:05
country is becoming more bitter and more00:33:08
angry and more00:33:11
demoralized and so he passes a law or he00:33:14
gets a law passed for some sort of00:33:18
demobilization and that he hopes00:33:23
will lighten the mood at of what might00:33:28
be a sensitive time for him because his00:33:32
constitutional term as president is00:33:35
about to end and he prefers I think to00:33:39
want00:33:40
people00:33:41
more feeling a little more optimistic00:33:44
about the situation than they currently00:33:47
are I have to say I am deeply skeptical00:33:52
that this demobilization law is indeed00:33:56
going to release00:33:57
large numbers of men from the00:34:01
Army were it to do so even if a00:34:05
mobilization law were passed and even if00:34:09
that mobilization law were successful it00:34:13
would simply mean that veteran00:34:16
soldiers would be replaced by Green00:34:21
untrained soldiers and I can't imagine00:34:25
that in the presence situation that is00:34:28
what Ukraine realistically intends to do00:34:32
so that's one thing the other thing00:34:35
that's coming out of Ukraine is a lot of00:34:38
information about the building of the00:34:42
Fortified00:34:43
lines00:34:45
and as I think I discussed in a program00:34:49
two days ago I've had a very interesting00:34:54
explanation of why it would be00:34:57
impossible for Ukraine to build00:34:59
fortified lines on anything like the00:35:02
kind of scale that the Russians did00:35:05
Ukraine simply doesn't have the00:35:07
resources the raw materials the Manpower00:35:11
the digging equipment to build something00:35:14
analogous to the00:35:17
um U Russian Surin line and well that00:35:24
does in fact gen seem to be the case the00:35:29
New York Times has apparently spoken00:35:32
about Ukrainian fortifications as being00:35:36
sparse rudimentary trench lines which00:35:40
lack many of the additional00:35:42
fortifications that could help slow00:35:44
Russian tanks and help defend major00:35:47
roads and important terrain I haven't00:35:50
read the article the full article from00:35:53
which I've quoted but I understand that00:35:55
that specifically refers00:35:57
to fortifications in the aeva sector but00:36:02
I understand from other sources that it00:36:04
is likely to be true right across00:36:09
Ukraine as well and we've now00:36:13
had a discussion about this from a00:36:17
retired Colonel of the Russian military00:36:20
Anatoli00:36:22
matvichuk now matvichuk he's a Russian00:36:27
officer and very obviously loyal to00:36:30
Russia but00:36:32
maduk is a Ukrainian name so he's00:36:36
obviously of Ukrainian Providence and00:36:39
perhaps that means that he's more00:36:43
familiar with um Ukrainian matters00:36:47
Ukrainian Publications that other00:36:49
Russian officers might be just saying00:36:52
but anyway matvichuk has gone on to say00:36:55
that they dig in in the ground try to00:36:58
create some obstacle zones that are00:37:01
simply not effective and do not match00:37:05
the criteria of Modern Warfare they00:37:08
failed in both the quality and quantity00:37:11
of such00:37:13
fortifications that they build along00:37:16
their fortified lines we Russia could00:37:20
lay between 500 to 1,000 mes per 100:37:24
kilometer of Front Line we establish00:37:27
lines of dragon's teeth with gaps no00:37:30
more than 1 and A2 M wide which would00:37:33
not allow modern tanks to pass without00:37:37
special engineering assistance today00:37:41
Ukraine cannot do that and maduk this is00:37:47
thinking this from an interview he's00:37:48
given to the Russian media he says that00:37:52
Ukraine simply doesn't have the military00:37:55
with its military industrial complex in00:37:58
tacas it simply lacks the capability to00:38:01
produce the components needed for the00:38:05
construction of00:38:07
fortifications and I've heard more00:38:09
reports about this um DEA the military00:38:13
summary00:38:14
Channel discussed this briefly in one of00:38:17
his recent updates he said that00:38:20
according to one commentator I haven't00:38:21
seen this report from this particular00:38:23
commentator it would take at the current00:38:28
pace of00:38:29
construction something like six years00:38:33
for Ukraine to be able to build00:38:35
something analogous to the suin line00:38:39
which Russia built in about 600:38:43
months well I think this is probably00:38:46
true I would say that in my opinion I've00:38:49
said this before had Ukraine00:38:53
concentrated on building strong defense00:38:56
lines00:38:57
in the winter of 202200:39:01
2023 instead of deciding to launch its00:39:06
disastrous summer00:39:08
offensive then perhaps something could00:39:12
have been00:39:13
achieved but today with all the problems00:39:17
that exist with the shortage of00:39:21
resources with the00:39:24
Relentless missile drone attacks that00:39:27
the Russians are conducting and by the00:39:30
way there were huge Russian drone00:39:32
attacks right across Ukraine yesterday00:39:36
well with all of that going on it's00:39:38
simply illogical to think that Ukraine00:39:40
can reproduce these sort of Defense00:39:43
lines um now so that's where I'm going00:39:49
to finish discussing what's going on in00:39:51
Ukraine itself today there's been as00:39:54
it's off on the way a a certain00:39:56
reduction of information from the00:39:59
battlefronts that doesn't by the way00:40:01
necessarily mean as I've come to realize00:40:05
an operational pause it merely means a00:40:07
pause in reporting00:40:10
but00:40:13
overall the situation Remains the Same00:40:16
Ukraine's Army continues to be ground00:40:20
down it's running short of men00:40:24
machines and ammunition00:40:27
the Russians are becoming stronger there00:40:29
are rumors of a big offens being00:40:32
prepared perhaps for the late spring in00:40:36
Haru region and given how00:40:40
fragile the Ukrainian Army now is I have00:40:44
to say that if the Russians do launch a00:40:46
big offensive we say 100,000 men um a00:40:51
new opening a new front line in Northern00:40:54
har region I think that Ukraine would00:40:58
simply not be in a position to withstand00:41:01
it this is how it seems to me00:41:06
anyway difficult situation for Ukraine00:41:10
overall00:41:12
and as a result growing alarm and00:41:16
concern in the west now before I carry00:41:21
on and come to the West I just wanted to00:41:24
say and this might also be a reflection00:41:27
of the edgy atmosphere in the west um00:41:31
late yesterday and early this morning00:41:33
the British and American embassies in00:41:37
Moscow gave out a warning that a major00:41:41
terrorist incident in Moscow was00:41:43
anticipated for00:41:45
today as of the time of making this00:41:49
program there is no news of such an00:41:52
incident actually taking place00:41:57
if they do have actual00:42:01
information about a terrorist incident00:42:04
of that kind one would hope and assume00:42:10
that they're sharing it with the Russian00:42:13
authorities just saying um it would be00:42:17
completely00:42:19
irresponsible if they did not and might00:42:22
even suggest a degree of complete00:42:27
just saying00:42:29
again or it could just be intended to00:42:34
Rattle nerves in Ukraine sorry in in00:42:38
Moscow at a time when nerves in Western00:42:45
capitals are coming becoming themselves00:42:49
increasingly rattled and that brings me00:42:52
now to these two speeches I'm going to00:42:54
deal with President Biden's00:42:56
briefly because it seemed to me some00:43:00
people are saying that it00:43:02
was a campaign speech an electoral00:43:05
campaign speech masquerading as a State00:43:08
of the Union00:43:10
Address I suppose in a way that is true00:43:15
but I have to also say that it was the00:43:17
most00:43:19
angry um00:43:22
argumentative um divisive State of the00:43:27
Union Address I have ever00:43:30
heard and I would also say that the00:43:36
president when he made the speech00:43:39
referenced two earlier presidents00:43:42
Abraham Lincoln and Franklin00:43:45
Roosevelt in the case of Abraham Lincoln00:43:49
as a00:43:50
student I read every one of President00:43:53
Lincoln's speeches which he gave during00:43:56
the American Civil War they did not by00:43:59
the way include State of the Union00:44:02
speeches in those days the president00:44:04
didn't give a State of the Union Address00:44:07
he sent a written up a written report to00:44:10
Congress just saying but I've read every00:44:13
single speech that Lincoln gave During00:44:17
the period when he was president of the00:44:19
United States as well as some of the00:44:21
speeches that he made00:44:24
previously and00:44:26
I haven't read every speech and comment00:44:30
and interview the President Roosevelt00:44:32
gave during the time when he was00:44:34
president but I've read all the most00:44:36
important ones and I00:44:39
remember most of the most important ones00:44:43
and it's important to say that Lincoln00:44:45
and Roosevelt both were presidents00:44:48
during periods of extreme crisis Lincoln00:44:52
during a Civil War in fact a tremendous00:44:56
Civil War an event a cataclysmic event00:45:01
which transformed00:45:03
America and President Roosevelt was of00:45:06
course the president of the United00:45:08
States leading the United States during00:45:11
the Great Depression and the America and00:45:15
the second world war00:45:17
and neither00:45:21
president00:45:23
spoke in the way the president President00:45:26
Biden did during his State of the Union00:45:29
Address um neither of these presidents00:45:34
was as00:45:35
abusive and as trenchant and as critical00:45:39
of their00:45:40
opponents as President00:45:43
Biden was00:45:46
yesterday um President Lincoln always00:45:51
conveyed a sense of00:45:54
humanity and compassion passion and00:45:57
great dignity in all of his speeches and00:46:00
always sought to be inclusive and to00:46:04
unite the nation in fact he spoke as I'd00:46:07
said previously it his last Inaugural00:46:11
Address almost essentially the last00:46:13
speech he gave he ended it with the00:46:16
words with charity for all with M with00:46:19
with malice towards none with charity00:46:21
for00:46:22
all we saw very little of that none of00:46:25
that yesterday from President Biden and00:46:29
um Roosevelt always for his part00:46:34
conveyed a mood of cheerful00:46:38
optimism and humanity and00:46:42
charm which caused people to refer to00:46:45
him as the happy warrior the00:46:49
contrast with this speech we heard00:46:52
yesterday was astonishing00:46:56
and the other thing that struck me about00:46:59
the speech and I'm not going to get into00:47:01
the details of what he said about his00:47:03
domestic programs which apart from the00:47:05
fact that he's going to increase taxes00:47:08
and seek to reverse a major Supreme00:47:12
Court00:47:13
decision which well everyone knows what00:47:16
I'm referring to um well all of that00:47:19
seem to me pretty thin when you come00:47:23
down to it but00:47:26
about foreign policy he had00:47:30
astonishingly little to say he started00:47:34
with a intemperate and angry references00:47:39
to Ukraine to the war in Ukraine um00:47:44
criticizing again President Putin00:47:47
specifically but it was interesting to00:47:50
see how quickly he moved off that topic00:47:54
and how little he had to to say about it00:47:57
and the way in which his primary purpose00:48:01
in bringing that topic up was in order00:48:05
to use it in order to criticize his00:48:09
domestic opponents who he was trying to00:48:14
somehow imply were doing the work of00:48:19
President Putin's for him00:48:23
so much little said there ultimately00:48:27
about Ukraine not much about00:48:29
China a00:48:32
somewhat00:48:34
farfetched and strange plan to establish00:48:38
a port in00:48:41
Gaza one would have thought again that a00:48:44
ceasefire of some00:48:46
kind might have been a more practical00:48:50
way of dealing with the acknowledged00:48:52
problems in Gaza but overall very very00:48:55
little on foreign policy and I don't00:48:58
find this surprising at all because one00:49:02
of the major reasons why the president00:49:05
is in the position that he is in is00:49:07
because he and his00:49:11
administration00:49:12
miscalculated badly about the00:49:16
war I obviously was not a party to the00:49:21
discussions that took place in the00:49:24
United States in in the White House in00:49:26
the executive office in the state00:49:31
department the National Security00:49:33
Council in the run up to the start of00:49:38
the conflict in Ukraine in February00:49:42
2022 but I am sure that none of the00:49:46
people involved in those00:49:51
discussions00:49:53
expected that00:49:56
two years00:49:58
later the president would find00:50:02
himself faced in00:50:05
Ukraine with the situation that exists00:50:10
now there would have been I am sure00:50:14
confident expectations that the massive00:50:18
wave of sanctions that the United States00:50:22
and the Western Powers were prep00:50:25
preparing to launch against Russia would00:50:28
massively destabilize the Russian00:50:31
economy and would destabilize the00:50:34
political situation in Russia forcing00:50:39
President Putin's resignation and the00:50:42
fall of his00:50:44
government and of course this time last00:50:49
year even as that those expectations of00:50:53
an econ of a victory in the economic War00:50:57
were not fulfilled well there was00:51:00
widespread00:51:02
hope as we all remember that the00:51:05
Ukrainian offensive for the summer of00:51:09
2023 that that would deal The Knockout00:51:12
blow and it would defeat the Russian00:51:14
army and break through to the Black Sea00:51:17
and to the Sea of azof and isolate00:51:20
Crimea and Achieve victory that00:51:23
way neither of of those things has00:51:27
happened00:51:29
the economic War to all intents and00:51:34
purposes has been lost it was00:51:37
fascinating to see how the president00:51:39
again was trying to00:51:42
blame the higher inflation which is to00:51:45
some extent a product of that economic00:51:48
War upon everyone except himself but00:51:51
anyway that's again an aside so the00:51:54
economic War has been00:51:57
lost and the military war is being00:52:03
lost and that means that the president00:52:07
who probably00:52:08
expected that by this point in his00:52:12
presidency he would be positioned ahead00:52:16
of the presidential election as a00:52:20
Victorious president who had achieved00:52:23
the biggest foreign policy success of00:52:27
any US president since the end of the00:52:30
Cold War the president is on the00:52:34
defensive is instead on the defensive00:52:38
his domestic achievements though talked00:52:42
up by many are00:52:45
disputed the success of his economic00:52:49
policies is disputed by many including00:52:54
myself00:52:56
and his foreign00:52:58
policy lies in00:53:00
Ruins instead of victory in00:53:04
Ukraine he has a war in Ukraine on his00:53:08
hands which his proxies in Ukraine are00:53:13
losing and he's stuck in a conflict in00:53:18
the Middle East in which his fatuous00:53:21
proposals to establish a port in Gaza00:53:26
well what that tells us is that he has00:53:28
no real plan or idea of what to do and00:53:32
nor do he's00:53:34
advisers00:53:36
so in this kind of00:53:39
situation he00:53:41
Retreats into aggressiveness and anger00:53:45
and tries to talk up00:53:48
divisions and the threat to democracy00:53:52
from within and that explains s to my00:53:57
mind the00:53:59
astonishing speech that we got00:54:03
yesterday I would add that it is perhaps00:54:09
not00:54:10
surprising that the person who is00:54:14
ultimately responsible for this debacle00:54:18
and for the president finding himself in00:54:21
this particular situation in which he is00:54:23
in at the moment that is to say Victoria00:54:26
nuland has now Departed the scene I have00:54:30
been thinking deeply about her00:54:34
resignation over the last couple of days00:54:38
I've noticed one other thing about the00:54:41
uh statement that secretary blinken00:54:45
published on the occasion of her00:54:50
resignation and of course it says it00:54:53
does or rather it fails to make00:54:55
to00:54:57
wish uh Victoria newand well in her00:55:01
retirement I don't know whether that is00:55:03
commonly done in the United States00:55:07
but I would have thought that it00:55:11
was I suspect that there's been a00:55:16
growing feeling not just within the00:55:19
permanent US state the00:55:23
Pentagon and the the00:55:26
um officials at the state department00:55:30
that Victoria newand and her Russia and00:55:35
Ukraine00:55:36
Obsession have led the United States00:55:40
into a very difficult place and that00:55:44
what the United States now needs to do00:55:47
is to try to find some way of00:55:50
extricating itself from00:55:52
it and so so I I think that those people00:55:57
think that but I suspect also some00:56:00
people in the Democratic party are00:56:03
probably also now tired of Victoria00:56:07
nuland and her Ukraine Obsession and00:56:11
have concluded that the way she has00:56:15
conducted project00:56:17
Ukraine over the last two years has been00:56:21
to put it mildly00:56:23
unhelpful thus00:56:25
the fact that she was passed over for00:56:27
promotion to the post of deputy00:56:30
secretary of00:56:31
state and the further pressures that00:56:36
probably were brought to bear and which00:56:39
appear to have resulted in her00:56:42
resignation so an angry speech from a00:56:46
President Who perhaps doesn't have00:56:50
exactly his back to the wall but who00:56:53
feels that things are not going going as00:56:56
he expected that they00:56:57
would by this point in his00:57:02
presidency but alarming though President00:57:06
Biden's speech was at least to me it is00:57:10
eclipsed by far with this astonishing00:57:15
speech that President macron made to the00:57:18
faction leaders of the French Parliament00:57:22
and well there are multiple accounts of00:57:26
it now appearing in the French media and00:57:30
they are00:57:31
collectively appalling anyway what seems00:57:34
to have happened is that macron having00:57:37
spent a lot of time trying to persuade00:57:39
other European leaders upon the need to00:57:41
send European troops to Ukraine having00:57:46
gained some support from president P00:57:50
president pavl of the Czech00:57:53
Republic who I00:57:55
ECT is starting to feel some political00:58:00
pressure based on my admittedly00:58:04
brief00:58:06
time that I've spent in the Czech00:58:08
Republic I can't imagine that most00:58:11
people there are at all Keen in seeing00:58:14
the Czech Republic drawn into a war with00:58:17
Russia there is strong antagonism to00:58:20
Russia on the part of some people in00:58:23
Prague but I don't get didn't get the00:58:25
impression that that was the general00:58:27
feeling across the country and even in00:58:30
Prague I doubt that many people there00:58:34
would00:58:36
welcome a conflict between the Czech00:58:39
Republic and Russia but anyway president00:58:43
parille maybe not feeling wholly secure00:58:47
is trying00:58:49
to00:58:51
um overcompensate as people so sometimes00:58:55
do by appearing to give some support to00:59:00
president00:59:01
macron but00:59:04
anyway maon00:59:07
himself trying to talk up this idea of00:59:09
FR sending European troops to Ukraine he00:59:13
had this meeting with the fraction00:59:15
leaders of the parliament to try to00:59:18
persuade them as well and according to00:59:21
the French media they were collect acely00:59:26
horrified by what they heard him say00:59:29
apparently he was showing them all kinds00:59:30
of maps he was talking about the threats00:59:34
from the Russians to take Kiev and00:59:38
adessa he was saying again that victory00:59:42
for Russia would be unacceptable that it00:59:45
would put the whole security of Europe00:59:49
in00:59:50
Jeopardy he said that there must be no00:59:54
limits at all to the kind of support00:59:57
that France and Europe should give to01:00:00
Ukraine and given that France of course01:00:02
is itself a European a nuclear01:00:05
power if you do away with limits then01:00:09
you01:00:10
are possibly um opening at least in01:00:15
theory up the01:00:18
possibility of nuclear weapons being01:00:20
used and he said01:00:23
that there must be no acceptance of any01:00:27
Russian red01:00:29
lines and the faction leaders apparently01:00:32
without exception told him that this01:00:36
was dangerous Reckless talk the leader01:00:40
the Parliamentary leader of leen's party01:00:43
apparently begged him not to lead France01:00:47
into a war with Russia the French the01:00:50
the leftwing parties um um uh melon01:00:55
Sha's group and the Communist party also01:00:59
said the same the Republicans were also01:01:03
horrified by these proposals this is the01:01:06
center right party and it's important to01:01:09
say that without their support the01:01:12
French government the part the macron's01:01:15
party01:01:17
itself would lack would would01:01:21
lose its ability to P to get legislation01:01:26
passed through the Parliament and01:01:30
anyway the faction leaders told01:01:34
him stop don't do what you're doing but01:01:39
president macron decided nonetheless01:01:42
that he would press on and as I01:01:45
understand it pretty much the entire01:01:46
French media on01:01:49
this is starting now to question his01:01:54
judgment01:01:55
I won't pretend that I've read all of01:01:57
them but I understand that there's been01:01:58
criticism of him recently in L and01:02:02
Figaro and newspapers like that I'm not01:02:05
sure that this criticism is all01:02:08
connected with01:02:12
this plan he has apparently to send01:02:16
French troops to Ukraine but perhaps it01:02:21
is there are plenty of other things01:02:24
going wrong in France as well French01:02:28
economy is again starting to Trend01:02:32
downwards president macron's01:02:36
popularity appears to be sinking like a01:02:39
stone and was already doing so before uh01:02:44
he started saying these things and01:02:47
apparently there is great nervousness01:02:50
within the ruling party and perhaps01:02:55
on the part of President macron01:02:57
himself about the likely outcome of the01:03:00
European Parliament elections which I01:03:03
believe are due to happen in May there01:03:07
are suggestions that there will be a01:03:09
wipe out that Len's party will win and01:03:15
win01:03:16
big and by the way if that01:03:21
happens that will result01:03:25
in01:03:26
a solid group of French01:03:32
MPS coming to the European Parliament01:03:35
who are opposed to the01:03:38
war01:03:40
so an astonishing01:03:43
speech and one that president macron is01:03:48
persisting in01:03:51
despite the immense01:03:56
unpopularity and criticism of it that01:04:00
there is in01:04:02
France and one by the way which appears01:04:06
to be putting president macron's already01:04:10
difficult relations with Chancellor Olaf01:04:13
Schultz in Germany under further01:04:17
stress Chancellor Schultz and here01:04:20
undoubtedly he speaks to the great bulk01:04:24
of German01:04:25
opinion01:04:27
is very supportive of Ukraine willing to01:04:30
send Ukraine lots of weapons but for the01:04:34
moment at least he is ruling out any01:04:37
deployment of German troops in Ukraine01:04:40
to fight Russia something which for01:04:44
obvious understandable reasons most01:04:48
Germans don't want to01:04:51
entertain so why is macron doing this01:04:53
why why is he behaving in this way well01:04:57
I think there are multiple reasons one01:05:00
is the fact that President01:05:04
macron feels very angry with President01:05:08
Putin he uh made a big effort at the01:05:12
outset of his presidency to persuade01:05:15
President Putin to01:05:18
basically make up with Europe and01:05:21
subordinate01:05:22
himself to the policies of the01:05:25
EU um I still01:05:29
remember um Putin's visit to France just01:05:34
after macron became president and the01:05:37
incredibly patronizing way in which01:05:41
macron treated Putin lecturing Putin on01:05:47
the policies of Peter the Great the01:05:49
westernizing policies of Peter the Great01:05:52
and trying to urge on Putin Putin's own01:05:57
adoption of01:05:59
what macron mistakenly believed01:06:05
were Peter the Great's ideas and01:06:08
policies anyway so I think he's angry01:06:11
with Putin because Putin has not done01:06:14
the things that he expected it seems01:06:16
that it was macron01:06:19
who prior to the start of the war prior01:06:23
to the breakdown of ations was trying to01:06:25
get the Russians to drop the Minsk01:06:28
agreement and to negotiate directly with01:06:32
the ukrainians something which at that01:06:35
time the Russians were making it01:06:37
absolutely clear that they would not do01:06:39
because it would in effect mean an01:06:42
abandonment of the Minsk agreement by01:06:44
Russia which was unacceptable to the01:06:47
Russians at that01:06:49
time I can remember the01:06:52
Furious demand01:06:54
that the Russian foreign Ministry01:06:57
published about that and I was I have to01:07:01
say astonished when I discovered that it01:07:04
was president macron who had come up01:07:06
with this illc conceived plan which01:07:12
undoubtedly contributed to the growing01:07:14
distrust in Russia of the01:07:17
Europeans and which played a role in01:07:21
leading us to the conflict that we are01:07:23
in now so I think there is personal01:07:26
anger and bitterness on the part of01:07:28
macron towards Putin because Putin01:07:32
proved completely resistant to01:07:35
macron's urgings01:07:39
and insinuations and attempts to win him01:07:43
round I think that also there's01:07:48
probably a degree of01:07:51
petulance we've seen how01:07:54
France's attempts to shore up its01:07:56
positions in West Africa over the last01:07:59
year have been01:08:01
unsuccessful the coup in ner has01:08:04
Consolidated ner has now increasingly01:08:09
shifted into good relations with Russia01:08:14
other western African States appear to01:08:17
be moving in the same01:08:18
direction um by the way talking about01:08:21
West African States I understand that01:08:25
Nigeria is now the latest country to say01:08:29
that it wants to join the bricks this01:08:31
despite the fact that it's been a firm01:08:35
Western and American Ally in recent01:08:38
years apparently that's changing anyway01:08:42
maon angry about what has happened in01:08:44
West Africa maon undoubtedly Furious01:08:48
about the fact that the Russians01:08:50
retaliated against that French team that01:08:54
was based in that hotel in Haru French01:08:57
mercenaries or volunteers as the French01:09:00
government insists they were French01:09:03
soldiers masquerading as volunteers as01:09:07
the Russians say they actually were so01:09:11
there's all that too but I suspect also01:09:14
that there are some deeper factors at01:09:16
play firstly there is the sense of01:09:19
macron's own01:09:21
grandiosity um he's popular ity is01:09:24
falling his01:09:27
plans to build a new stronger Europe01:09:33
with France leading01:09:35
it to all intents and purposes turned to01:09:38
dust over the period of his presidency01:09:43
his plans01:09:45
to reform and reenergize the French01:09:49
economy have turned to dust01:09:52
also um he sees his popularity01:09:57
fall he01:09:59
senses01:10:02
that when he leaves the01:10:05
presidency he will leave it as a failed01:10:10
president and of course his vanity makes01:10:13
that something he finds very difficult01:10:16
to accept and of course if his successor01:10:21
really is Marine Leen well well he will01:10:25
regard regard that as a greater failure01:10:29
still so there is that there is the01:10:34
desire therefore to make up for the01:10:37
domestic01:10:39
failures and01:10:41
the and anger towards Putin specifically01:10:49
by greater01:10:52
grandiosity by posing as the strongest01:10:56
most dynamic Napoleonic figure in01:11:01
Europe and well that partly explains it01:11:06
but I can't help but think that01:11:07
ultimately the major reason why the01:11:10
French or rather to be more precise why01:11:13
mael is talking in this way is01:11:18
because growing alarm in Europe across01:11:22
Europe which has been building01:11:25
now for several weeks especially since01:11:29
aava fell that the United States is01:11:36
losing01:11:38
interest in the perpetuation of project01:11:43
Ukraine we've seen01:11:46
now increasing number of clues that this01:11:49
is that this is so we had that article01:11:52
in the New York Times01:11:54
talking about disclosing about the01:11:57
American intelligence bases in01:12:00
Ukraine um recently on the Duran we were01:12:03
privileged to interview Lieutenant01:12:05
Colonel retired Tony schaer he U01:12:10
commented about this article he has01:12:12
joined the various other intelligence01:12:15
officials who have spoken about this01:12:17
American in former American intelligence01:12:19
officials who spoken about this and he01:12:22
has said that in his opinion01:12:27
also the publication of an article like01:12:30
this is a clear sign that a withdrawal01:12:34
from01:12:35
Ukraine by the United States a pullback01:12:38
of some kind by the United States from01:12:42
Ukraine is starting that Americans the01:12:45
American leadership the permanent State01:12:49
can see that this project is ending as a01:12:52
debar01:12:54
there's a limit to how far they want to01:12:57
become drawn into what threatens to01:13:00
become a01:13:02
quagmire and so they've decided quietly01:13:06
that the time has come to start pulling01:13:09
out01:13:11
so that01:13:13
is that article in the New York Times01:13:16
points in that01:13:19
direction the01:13:22
resignation01:13:23
of Victoria newand points in that01:13:27
direction01:13:28
also even more so still more so the01:13:34
backgrounds of the people who have01:13:37
replaced Kurt Campbell as deputy01:13:39
secretary of state somebody who wants to01:13:43
prioritize01:13:45
on Asia in China John bass who um01:13:52
oversaw the US withdrawal from01:13:55
Afghanistan General Brown at the01:13:59
Department of Defense he doesn't seem to01:14:01
be too keen on the Ukrainian conflict01:14:05
either he shown none of the enthusiasm01:14:07
for it that we saw from General Millie01:14:10
his predecessor and now we've had this01:14:14
speech from the president of the United01:14:17
States01:14:18
the State of the Union01:14:21
Address which01:14:24
talks about Ukraine in01:14:28
relatively short01:14:32
terms and tries to use the issue of01:14:36
Ukraine principally to attack the01:14:39
president's domestic01:14:41
supporters so there is this feeling01:14:44
across Europe that the war in Ukraine is01:14:46
being lost that01:14:49
Ukrainian that ukrainians might not be01:14:51
able to withstand further Russian01:14:54
pressure beyond the summer that there01:14:56
might be a collapse in Ukraine beyond01:14:59
the summer all that massive investment01:15:02
in01:15:05
money the sacrifice of economies the01:15:09
plundering of European militaries that01:15:12
massive investment in political01:15:14
credibility is at risk of coming to01:15:18
nothing and01:15:21
macron is01:15:23
one of those people who01:15:27
can't accept this it hurts his vanity01:15:33
too01:15:34
much well we01:15:36
see we will have to wait and see what01:15:40
comes of all of this the Kremlin as I01:15:45
discussed yesterday is warning the01:15:47
Europeans that they're playing with fire01:15:49
and that was clearly principally01:15:50
directed at macron himself01:15:53
I have no doubt that if European troops01:15:57
were to enter Ukraine they would become01:16:00
targets for the Russian military01:16:03
so this is an extremely01:16:07
dangerous petulent game that macron is01:16:12
playing um he doesn't seem prepared to01:16:16
back off from it however he's now01:16:20
talking about sending ukra French troops01:16:23
to01:16:24
mova which is in the grip of a political01:16:27
crisis itself one I will discuss in01:16:31
shortly in another01:16:34
program I think01:16:38
that this could trigger more problems01:16:43
for him in01:16:44
France I doubt that it will come to very01:16:48
much in the end I think the French01:16:51
military will be solidly apposed to01:16:54
these01:16:55
plans and I also have to say though that01:17:00
it shows how01:17:02
desperate and panicky European leaders01:17:06
have become I'm going to finish01:17:09
this video today with a quotation from01:17:12
an editorial in the Daily01:17:15
Telegraph01:17:17
now yesterday rather the day before01:17:20
yesterday in Britain the government the01:17:23
British government Finance Minister01:17:26
Chancellor of the exer Jeremy Hunt01:17:28
announced the government's budget and it01:17:31
was striking that despite all of the01:17:34
religions we've had from Britain towards01:17:37
Russia over Ukraine all the blood01:17:40
curdling talk about uh the01:17:44
threat from Russia to Britain and to01:17:49
Europe the British government did did01:17:53
not announce any increase in defense01:17:56
spending they prioritized cutting01:18:00
taxes even as they apparently are01:18:03
preparing for major Cuts in spending01:18:08
overall and there01:18:11
was this rather sad editorial in01:18:16
response of the Daily Telegraph which01:18:18
has been a major01:18:20
advocate of support01:18:25
for project Ukraine and for Britain's01:18:28
commitment to it and which is been01:18:31
campaigning vehemently recently for an01:18:34
increase in defense spending and the01:18:38
Daily Telegraph makes the point01:18:42
that British defense spending remains01:18:47
static the same basically is true of01:18:51
Europe as well01:18:53
only Poland and Germany seem to be01:18:56
increasing defense spending at all and01:18:59
in Germany that's not achieving very01:19:03
much because most of the increases in01:19:06
defense spending in Germany are being01:19:09
siphoned into support for Ukraine and01:19:14
this01:19:16
editorial contains this paragraph the01:19:19
funding for defense not just here but in01:19:23
France and Elsewhere on the continent01:19:27
does not match the01:19:30
urgency of the political01:19:33
warnings about the threat posed by01:19:38
Russia either those warnings are being01:19:42
exaggerated or we are01:19:46
underprepared well which do we think it01:19:51
is are the warning things being01:19:54
exaggerated or are we01:19:57
underprepared well I would say without01:19:59
any doubt that they are being01:20:02
exaggerated but as the Daily Telegraph01:20:06
is saying deep down despite all of this01:20:10
talk about the threat from01:20:12
Russia despite all the talk about the01:20:17
need to increase European def01:20:21
preparedness the Europe Europeans are01:20:23
not increasing spending of on01:20:27
defense and that has to be because they01:20:31
don't themselves really01:20:33
believe that the threat from Russia that01:20:36
they're constantly talking about01:20:39
exists all of this talk all of this talk01:20:43
from macron01:20:45
himself reflects not a01:20:49
threat from Russia to Europe Europe but01:20:54
rather a threat to the political01:20:57
positions The01:20:59
credibility of the European01:21:02
leaders who led01:21:05
Europe down this blind alley of project01:21:10
Ukraine well that's the end of my01:21:13
program today more from me soon let me01:21:16
remind you again that you can find all01:21:18
our programs on our various platforms01:21:21
locals Rumble and X you can also support01:21:24
our work via patreon And subscribe01:21:27
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remember to tick the like button and to01:21:46
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soon have a very a good01:21:53
[Music]01:22:12
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Macron 'No Limits' War Talk Shocks France, Angry Biden Speech Highlights Ukr Failure, Rus Advance Continues Topic 1135 *****LOCALS COMMUNITY***** https://theduran.locals.com/ 1 MONTH FREE TRIAL: https://theduran.locals.com/support/promo/DURANLOCALS *****THE DURAN SHOP***** https://theduranshop.com/ 10% OFF COUPON. Use code at checkout: REALNEWS *****OUR OFFICIAL CHANNELS***** ALEXANDER: https://www.youtube.com/AlexanderMercourisReal ALEX: https://www.youtube.com/alexchristoforou *****CRYPTO SUPPORT***** BITCOIN: 3JvdnoyWMb93hSRgk58ZstUxg11PW9mKSr ETHEREUM: 0xF39BdFb41f639B82E3D2Bf022828bC6394F533A3 LTC: MGFiMC18ZViF6DcCixMqAAP11TG4tF6Acj ADA: addr1v94ayqu53uklgqnn6c4x4weu8zk4uw78km8capd5rjdc06q28j370 HEX: 0xD449694348B1D618ECa2829Bbc901782F5172689 EMC2: EXX4KK9pZLx7uiLWnCXtp7iMKjtq6o5b6R *****DONATE***** CREDIT CARD: https://donorbox.org/the-duran SUBSCRIBE STAR: https://www.subscribestar.com/theduran PATREON: https://www.patreon.com/theduran *****VIDEO PLATFORMS***** SUPER U: https://superu.net/channel/055dc88f-aec7-475a-a7ad-1ad271b0282d/ RUMBLE THE DURAN: https://rumble.com/c/theduran ODYSEE: THE DURAN: https://odysee.com/@theduran ALEXANDER: https://odysee.com/@AlexanderMercouris:a ALEX: https://odysee.com/@alexchristoforou:7 BITCHUTE: THE DURAN: https://www.bitchute.com/theduran/ ALEXANDER: https://www.bitchute.com/alexandermercouris/ ALEX: https://www.bitchute.com/channel/izwNAdmMGIC7/ *****AUDIO PODCASTS***** SPOTIFY: https://open.spotify.com/show/5DgkWsC3YjoyGBV03CFWnk iTunes: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-duran-podcast/id1442883993 Soundcloud: https://soundcloud.com/user-901836666 *****FREE SPEECH PLATFORMS***** TELEGRAM: https://t.me/thedurancom GAB: https://gab.ai/?r=1 MINDS: https://www.minds.com/theduran PARLER: https://parler.com/profile/theduran/posts MEWE: https://mewe.com/i/theduran VK: https://vk.com/thedurancom OK: https://ok.ru/group/60904083488959 DISCORD SERVER: https://discord.com/invite/7qFhcjHaeF Amazing music contribution from Peter Brown. Follow Peter's music: https://soundcloud.com/peterboy100
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