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Video tags
Subtitles
Russian
00:00:00
the last 24 hours have in some respects00:00:03
been very00:00:04
consequential in terms of the outcome of00:00:08
the war in00:00:10
Ukraine in other respects perhaps one00:00:14
could even one could argue that they00:00:18
just00:00:19
signal an admission from the Ukrainian00:00:24
the ukrainians themselves or at least00:00:25
from president00:00:26
zalinski that events have been taking00:00:30
the course that I've been discussing in00:00:34
many programs on this channel for some00:00:36
time now and which is we've also00:00:39
discussed on the00:00:40
Duran00:00:42
and which of course have been00:00:44
highlighted by others in other places00:00:49
but anyway briefly president zalinski00:00:52
for the first time yesterday um appeared00:00:55
to admit the failure the final failure00:00:59
and the the end of Ukraine's offensive00:01:04
now he did this in a long interview that00:01:06
he gave with the Associated Press he did00:01:10
what he always does over the course of00:01:12
this interview which is that he blamed00:01:15
the failure of the offensive on other00:01:18
people he um said that we have a new00:01:21
phase of the war and that is a fact00:01:23
winter as a whole is a new phase of the00:01:27
war um look we're not backing down I'm00:01:31
satisfied we're fighting with the second00:01:33
best army in the world I'm satisfied we00:01:37
are losing people I'm not satisfied we00:01:40
didn't get all the weapons we wanted I00:01:42
can't be satisfied but I also can't00:01:45
complain too00:01:48
much all very confusing and all over the00:01:52
place as one tends to get with zalinski00:01:55
but the gist of it00:01:56
was that um he wasn't really expecting00:02:01
that the offensive uh would succeed or00:02:06
at least can succeed any further and00:02:08
that in effect it's been called off that00:02:11
was to the Associated Press and he also00:02:13
told the association the Associated00:02:15
Press AP that um he does not intend to00:02:21
hold any elections at all next year00:02:25
either for the presidency or for the00:02:27
parliament he spoke about the incredible00:02:31
difficulty of his job how immensely00:02:34
difficult it is but he made it00:02:36
absolutely clear that not with00:02:37
understanding that he has no intention00:02:40
of00:02:41
resigning or leaving the presidency that00:02:45
he going to remain in post and that in00:02:49
terms of his overall policy with Russia00:02:52
and about the war that there's going to00:02:54
be no change that he's going to continue00:02:57
the war that he's going to continue with00:03:00
the00:03:01
objectives that he has set which are00:03:05
complete recovery of every millimeter of00:03:09
territory that Ukraine controlled00:03:12
following the dissolution of the Soviet00:03:14
Union in00:03:16
1991 and that he still therefore aims00:03:19
for total Victory and as for the effect00:03:22
offensive well essentially the blame for00:03:26
its failure is due to the fact that he00:03:30
didn't get the weapons all the weapons00:03:33
that he says he was promised uh we00:03:35
didn't get all the weapons we wanted I00:03:38
can't be00:03:40
satisfied but I also can't complain too00:03:44
much that notwithstanding that that is00:03:47
of course precisely what he is doing00:03:50
complaining that is so that was what he00:03:53
said to the Associated Press but of00:03:56
course that was not the only thing that00:03:59
Zen II was reported as saying yesterday00:04:02
now zalinski in addition to meeting had00:04:06
giving an interview to the Associated00:04:08
Press he's also been on tour he visited00:04:12
the Ukrainian military in the front00:04:14
lines or at least not perhaps exactly on00:04:16
the front lines but he went to00:04:19
apparently to Kens I assume this was00:04:22
kopans on the west side of the Oscar00:04:27
River and um he met there with General00:04:31
syi and then he gave a broadcast to the00:04:36
Ukrainian people zalinski very regularly00:04:39
makes nightly broadcasts to the00:04:42
Ukrainian people and over the course of00:04:45
this broadcast he basically said that00:04:48
Ukraine from this point on it's going to00:04:51
go over to the defensive that it can't00:04:55
continue the offensive well he didn't00:04:57
exactly say that but he basically spoke00:05:00
about Ukraine going onto the offens00:05:03
defensive he spoke about how he had met00:05:06
with various um military Chiefs we'll00:05:10
come to that shortly and that there was00:05:13
a long discussion with those military00:05:15
Chiefs an agreement about building00:05:18
fortified lines in order to repel the00:05:23
Russians again he didn't quite say that00:05:26
either but what would be the purpose or00:05:28
pointed building up fortified lines if00:05:32
it was not to00:05:33
defend Ukraine against the Russians so00:05:37
in effect signaling that the offensive00:05:40
is over um both to the Associated Press00:05:44
and to the Ukrainian people whilst at00:05:47
the same time talking about Ukraine00:05:52
going on the defensive building00:05:54
fortified lines defending itself from00:06:00
Russian from Russian offensive attacks00:06:04
and having said that Sensi also00:06:08
basically told us where those fortified00:06:11
lines are going to be and it was again00:06:15
obvious that he is not prepared to00:06:19
retreat from a millimeter of Ukrainian00:06:22
territory because he spoke about00:06:25
AA and about marinka and about other00:06:29
places00:06:30
scorpion which um Ukraine is struggling00:06:34
to defend at the moment where the00:06:36
situation is getting worse for Ukraine00:06:39
by the hour we'll come to discussions00:06:42
about that later in the program but00:06:44
anyway he talked about all of these00:06:46
places and he00:06:47
wants apparently the new fortified lines00:06:52
to be created to defend Ukrainian00:06:57
positions even in these places where00:07:01
ongoing battles are taking place and00:07:05
then he had a meeting also with00:07:09
Ukrainian students I believe this00:07:11
happened in Kiev in which again he00:07:14
reiterated that Ukraine is going to00:07:18
retake Crimea he said that the people of00:07:21
Crimea are expecting the ukrainians to00:07:25
come and he did admit that regaining00:07:28
control of dbass would supposedly be00:07:32
more difficult than regaining crime a or00:07:36
at least that was the impression he00:07:38
sought to give so what are we to make of00:07:41
all of these somewhat incoherent and00:07:45
complex comments that zalinski made over00:07:49
the course of the last 24 hours well the00:07:52
first is that as I said at the outset he00:07:56
is an effect admitting that the great00:08:00
offensive of the summer is now well and00:08:04
truly over he's blaming the West to a00:08:09
great extent for its failure he says00:08:11
that they didn't provide Ukraine with00:08:13
all the military equipment that it00:08:15
needed to make that offensive a success00:08:18
but anyway he's admitting that the00:08:21
offensive has not succeeded and he is00:08:24
telling everybody now that Ukraine is00:08:27
going to go on the defensive he's not00:08:30
happy about admitting that the offensive00:08:32
has failed he's not really admitting00:08:35
that Ukraine is now on the00:08:39
defensive but it's not difficult to00:08:44
understand that that is the meaning of00:08:47
his words he's setting of course as I00:08:51
said00:08:53
impossible terms for that defense he00:08:58
wants of there and Kens and all of these00:09:01
other places which are already being00:09:03
fought over defended and included in00:09:07
these great fortified lines that he00:09:09
wants to see created he doesn't really00:09:12
discuss how these fortifications are to00:09:14
be created over the next few weeks or00:09:17
months but anyway that is clearly what00:09:20
he wants to see happen Alo he implies00:09:24
and he wants them to he wants AA and00:09:27
kopans and all of those places defended00:09:30
still but anyway he wants he accepts00:09:34
that Ukraine is now on the00:09:36
defensive even though he again refuses00:09:40
to00:09:41
surrender a millimeter of00:09:45
ground and of course he is00:09:49
addressing Ukrainian00:09:52
students he's telling them about the00:09:55
fact that there is going to be um00:09:59
ultimate Victory and that Ukraine will00:10:03
incorporate regain control of all its00:10:06
territories Crimea and donbass and the00:10:10
fact that he's saying these things to00:10:12
this particular00:10:14
audience is again a further clear00:10:17
indication that next week we're going to00:10:20
get an announcement that there's going00:10:21
to be a general00:10:23
mobilization and that Ukrainian students00:10:27
are amongst those who are going to be00:10:30
conscripted to join the Ukrainian00:10:33
military there is something else apart00:10:36
from these things which I found actually00:10:38
extremely interesting and that is I come00:10:41
back to that discussion that zalinski00:10:43
spoke about when he spoke about the00:10:46
meeting that he had with the various00:10:49
military commanders now he seems to have00:10:51
met General Siri the ground forces00:10:55
Commander whilst he was in00:10:57
kpens it's not clear to me where exactly00:11:01
he had this meeting with the other00:11:04
military00:11:05
commanders that he mentioned but I00:11:08
noticed that he gave a list of military00:11:12
commanders the most senior one that I00:11:15
could see mentioned was General00:11:19
tarnavski I didn't see General Z's name00:11:24
included and I think that is correct it00:11:29
which case it looks as if General Zusi00:11:32
was excluded from this00:11:35
discussion00:11:36
now just as00:11:39
zalinski went off to kin to meet the00:11:43
soldiers there and that did that visit00:11:49
does seem to have been covered by00:11:52
Ukrainian uh the Ukrainian media and00:11:55
apparently there are pictures and film00:11:58
of zin's visit to Kin there are reports00:12:02
the general zusy himself was also00:12:06
visiting the front lines only he went00:12:10
apparently to Hon region and met with um00:12:14
soldiers there but00:12:18
unlike zelinsky's visit to kopans I00:12:21
haven't seen or heard of a single00:12:24
picture or image of Z's visit to Hon00:12:29
region and to his meeting with the00:12:33
soldiers even though this seems to have00:12:35
happened essentially at the same time as00:12:39
zelinsky's visit to meet the military in00:12:44
kin so it seems to me that we00:12:48
can take we have this takeaway from all00:12:52
of this firstly Ukraine is now on the00:12:55
defensive secondly the offensive has00:12:57
failed third there's going to be a00:13:00
general mobilization that seems to me to00:13:03
be the clear gist of zelinsky's words00:13:07
fourth there are not going to be any00:13:09
negotiations whatsoever with the00:13:12
Russians fifth there's not going to be00:13:15
any elections in Ukraine next year00:13:18
zalinsky says the Ukrainian people don't00:13:20
want elections he has no intention00:13:23
clearly of holding00:13:26
them and um he's going to m in office or00:13:31
so he intends throughout the whole of00:13:33
next year and Beyond and last Sixth and00:13:38
last General's delusion is definitely on00:13:43
his way out he's no longer be included00:13:47
as far as I can see in top discussions00:13:50
he's going to be made the scapegoat for00:13:52
the failure of the offensive the00:13:55
military planning behind the offensive00:13:57
he's going to be s act at some point00:14:00
over the next few weeks and it'll be00:14:03
presumably either general tski or00:14:06
presumably General silski who will be00:14:09
taking over from him and um General00:14:15
zy00:14:17
is permitted to go and meet with00:14:20
soldiers in Heron00:14:22
region but the media machine in00:14:27
Kiev as so eventually ignores that visit00:14:31
and fails to report on it so in some00:14:35
respects a very00:14:38
consequential set of moves by zalanski00:14:42
the closest to an admission that the00:14:45
offensive has failed that we're ever00:14:47
likely to get from him the closest to an00:14:50
admission that Ukraine is on the00:14:52
defensive that we are ever going to get00:14:55
from him clear signs that there going to00:14:58
be mobilized ation and that zi is going00:15:01
to be sacked and that politically00:15:04
zalinski is digging in that he's going00:15:07
to remain president and that there not00:15:09
going to be00:15:10
negotiations with the Russians but of00:15:14
course and in00:15:16
reality this is no different from what00:15:20
we have already known00:15:23
before we've long known that um zalinski00:15:28
and Zelo are on bad terms that Zusi has00:15:32
been sniping at zalinski and zalinsky00:15:35
has been sniping that Zusi and that00:15:38
zalinski wants Zusi00:15:41
sacked and it seems as if zeleni has00:15:45
finally reached that point where he is00:15:50
preparing to take that step and I00:15:53
suspect that it's now going to be00:15:55
announced fairly soon so much has00:16:01
happened in terms of00:16:03
announcements and00:16:06
declarations but it was all clearly00:16:08
signposted00:16:10
before and of course if you've been00:16:12
following the news closely from Ukraine00:16:15
if you've been watching programs like00:16:17
this one and our programs on the Duran00:16:20
or Brian btics programs at the new Atlas00:16:24
or uh other programs in other places and00:16:28
following things that people like Scott00:16:30
rter00:16:31
and uh Douglas McGregor and lots of00:16:34
others have been saying well you would00:16:39
know you would know all of this already00:16:42
and of course if you go even deeper in00:16:45
the weeds if you go to places like slang00:16:48
grad and the various telegram channels00:16:52
Russian and Ukrainian residents and00:16:55
legitim and Str and all those places00:16:59
well as I said none of this would00:17:02
surprise you it was clearly all heading00:17:06
in that direction but note again that00:17:10
there is no real plan or idea here about00:17:15
how to bring the war to an end or to win00:17:19
the war zalinski is not00:17:22
offering any plan for victory he wants00:17:26
Ukraine to go on the defensive so he00:17:28
says00:17:29
he wants to create fortified lines in00:17:32
Imitation of what the Russians did at00:17:36
the end and start of this year at the00:17:39
end of last year and the start of this00:17:40
year he's no real plan about how to do00:17:44
that00:17:45
either and of course he has no political00:17:48
strategy to speak of other than his own00:17:55
Survival as00:17:57
president he's entire plan can be simply00:18:00
summed up as this hold on hold tight and00:18:05
hold on and keep your fingers crossed00:18:08
and hope that something will turn up00:18:12
that's it that's all that he has to00:18:14
offer the Ukrainian00:18:17
people even as he calls on them to00:18:20
engage in further00:18:22
sacrifices to prepare for further00:18:27
mobilizations um and further difficult00:18:30
in fact impossible battles which are to00:18:34
come now coming back to that offensive00:18:38
um the Russian defense minister sh Serge00:18:43
Shu has had more to say about it and00:18:46
there's been yet another meeting of the00:18:49
defense Ministry board in Moscow and00:18:53
again Shu addressed it and has said00:18:57
started it with certain words about the00:19:01
general situation in the war the00:19:05
conflict in00:19:07
Ukraine and I'm reading now from the00:19:11
Russian defense ministry's official00:19:14
translation of his words and this is00:19:16
what shus say said I would like to start00:19:20
with the situation in the special00:19:22
military operation Zone the total00:19:26
mobilization in Ukraine00:19:29
those words total00:19:31
mobilization have been00:19:34
highlighted so the Russians appear to00:19:38
think that the00:19:41
immobilization that00:19:43
is coming that00:19:46
zalinski is about to announce that that00:19:50
mobilization has to a great extent00:19:53
already been underway but anyway so it00:19:56
goes on to say the total mobilization in00:19:58
Ukraine the supply of Western00:20:01
weapons and the use of strategic00:20:05
reserves by the Ukrainian00:20:08
command did not change the situation on00:20:11
the00:20:12
battlefield such desperate actions of00:20:16
the enemy result in great losses of00:20:20
Ukrainian troops for six months of the00:20:23
so-called counter offensive the enemy00:20:26
has lost more than00:20:29
125,000 people and 16,000 units of00:20:34
various equipment the Russian troops00:20:37
continue to inflict effective and00:20:39
Powerful fire damage on the enemy as a00:20:43
result Ukrainian combat capabilities are00:20:47
significantly00:20:49
reduced Russian servicemen act00:20:52
competently and decisively occupy more00:20:56
advantageous positions expand control00:21:00
zones in all00:21:03
directions over the past month units of00:21:07
the 810th Marine00:21:09
Brigade The 150th motorized rifle00:21:13
division as well as the fourth 15th00:21:16
114th and 123rd motorized rifle brigades00:21:21
distinguished themselves in the course00:21:24
of00:21:25
hostilities Russian servicemen will00:21:28
continue to conduct active defense build00:21:31
up the combat potential of the Armed00:21:34
Forces taking into account the00:21:37
experience of the special military00:21:40
operation so again note a few of the00:21:44
things that shyu says here first of all00:21:49
he is now00:21:50
[Music]00:21:52
increased what he says is the level of00:21:55
combat losses that the the ukrainians00:21:58
have suffered to the best of my00:22:01
recollection when he last addressed a00:22:04
defense Ministry board meeting few weeks00:22:07
ago not very long ago in00:22:09
fact he put Ukrainian losses at that00:22:12
time at I I to my recollection 990,00000:22:17
men it's important to stress again that00:22:21
shyu is clearly talking about both men00:22:24
dead and severely wounded00:22:29
and he's now increased that to00:22:35
125,000 men uh uh uh sorry00:22:40
dead and wounded00:22:43
125,000 dead and wounded since00:22:47
the counter offensive the Ukrainian00:22:50
counter00:22:51
offensive began on the 4th of00:22:54
June00:22:56
now there's much00:22:59
discussion about the total size of the00:23:02
Ukrainian Army on the00:23:06
battlefronts most reports which I have00:23:10
seen gu estimated at around 300,000 men00:23:15
at any particular time if00:23:22
125,000 men have been killed or wounded00:23:27
over the course course of the last six00:23:32
months then that is roughly a third of00:23:37
the active Personnel at any one point of00:23:41
the Ukrainian military now obviously00:23:45
that doesn't mean that the Ukrainian00:23:47
military has been reduced in size by 30%00:23:52
or more than00:23:53
30% there obviously been Replacements00:23:56
there obviously been people who've been00:23:58
brought back into the military or have00:24:01
been conscripted to join the military00:24:04
but it's clear that the00:24:07
ukrainians are00:24:10
suffering Manpower shortages I've00:24:13
discussed this00:24:14
in numerous00:24:17
programs and if shu's figures are true00:24:22
and they do seem to be pretty much in00:24:25
line with most estimates of Ukrainian00:24:28
losses over the course of the offensive00:24:34
well if00:24:35
shu's estimates of Ukrainian losses are00:24:40
true then you begin to00:24:43
understand the scale of the00:24:47
disaster that the00:24:49
ukrainians have suffered over the course00:24:52
of the six last six months the scale of00:24:57
the L loes they have00:24:59
suffered00:25:00
and the reason00:25:03
why their forces are now00:25:08
underand00:25:10
and physically and mentally exhausted as00:25:15
well Ukraine cannot00:25:18
replace all of these losses which is why00:25:23
a further00:25:24
mobilization is now being planned00:25:28
and the00:25:30
survivors in the Ukrainian brigades are00:25:35
being asked to do more and more all the00:25:40
time because so many others are now00:25:45
wounded or00:25:46
dead so this has been said this before00:25:52
this offensive has been a major00:25:55
strategic victory for the00:25:58
Russians and the sooner this is00:26:01
understood and accepted and discussed in00:26:06
Ukraine and in the west as well as in00:26:12
Russia the better it will be in terms of00:26:17
making any future decisions going00:26:20
forward not just a major strategic00:26:24
victory for the Russians but a massive00:26:28
strategic defeat for00:26:30
Ukraine and for its Western sponsors as00:26:33
well but going back to Shu and what Shu00:26:36
said it goes even further than this he00:26:38
says that Ukraine's attempts to conduct00:26:43
a total00:26:46
mobilization and the supply of Western00:26:49
weapons have not changed the situation00:26:53
on the00:26:54
battlefronts Ukraine has suffered these00:26:56
huge losses00:26:58
and has made no significant00:27:02
gains and shyu specifically says that00:27:08
Ukraine has been burning up its00:27:10
strategic00:27:12
reserves the using of strategic reserves00:27:15
by the Ukrainian command did not change00:27:18
the situation on the00:27:20
battlefronts and00:27:22
again both I and various others have00:27:25
been making this point you can see how00:27:28
the Ukrainian military has been forced00:27:31
to pull battered units from the front00:27:34
line to from parts of the front line to00:27:38
plug holes in other parts of the front00:27:42
line in places like00:27:45
AA thinning the defenses in all sorts of00:27:48
places like bmud for example and the vov00:27:52
calian and zapar roia and um this is00:27:58
because Ukraine is now disastrously00:28:02
short of reserves strategic reserves00:28:07
because they've been used00:28:10
up over the course of the last few00:28:15
months but there is something else which00:28:18
is very interesting about what shyu is00:28:20
saying because he is the00:28:24
impression that the Russians are going00:28:27
to remain on the defensive he says00:28:29
Russian servicemen will continue to act00:28:34
conduct active def defense by active00:28:38
defense he does00:28:43
acknowledge that they will conduct00:28:46
important local offensives um they00:28:50
occupy more advantageous positions00:28:53
expand control zones in all Direction00:28:58
actions but he's made it absolutely00:29:02
clear that the Russians for the moment00:29:04
at least are not undertaking a general00:29:08
offensive they are taking advantage of00:29:12
the growing weaknesses in Ukrainian00:29:15
positions Ukrainian defensives because00:29:17
of the enormous Manpower losses that the00:29:19
ukrainians have suffered about00:29:23
the the fact that they have burnt00:29:26
through the ukrainians have Bur burn00:29:27
through their reserves but so far it is00:29:32
only an active defense so the advances00:29:36
in00:29:38
Kens in00:29:39
bmet in the v calian even one suspects00:29:44
the advances in of Deva itself they're00:29:48
not part of a general offensive they are00:29:52
the part of the plan to occupy more00:29:55
advantageous positions and expand00:29:59
control zones in all00:30:02
directions and00:30:05
Shu goes on to say give a hint at what00:30:10
is coming he says that Russians Russian00:30:13
servicemen will continue to conduct00:30:15
active defense but at the same time they00:30:18
will build00:30:20
up the combat potential of the Armed00:30:25
Forces I've discussed many times in many00:30:29
programs the enormous buildup that the00:30:32
Russians are undertaking and here we00:30:36
see Shu briefly alluding to it and Shu00:30:41
goes on to say that they will do this00:30:43
taking into account the experience of00:30:46
the special military operation they've00:30:49
learned an awful lot about the way in00:30:51
which this war is being waged that00:30:54
they're00:30:55
improving their forces all the time even00:31:00
as they're00:31:02
increasing in scale and that all does to00:31:07
my mind clearly point00:31:10
to an eventual intention by the Russians00:31:15
to move onto a proper fulls scale00:31:19
offensive when they're ready when their00:31:22
forces are fully built up and when the00:31:28
ukrainians are00:31:31
exhausted even00:31:33
further00:31:35
so fascinating contrast in00:31:39
commentaries by zalinski and Shu00:31:44
zelinski rambling incoherent comments00:31:49
not always easy to decipher in their00:31:53
specificity but nonetheless if you are00:31:57
aware of the situation and you follow00:32:00
the politics and the military realities00:32:03
on the battlefronts closely you can00:32:08
understand what he is essentially00:32:12
saying and00:32:14
shyu providing all kinds of facts and00:32:18
figures and giving us an actual insight00:32:23
into Russian strategy the Russian00:32:26
strategy00:32:27
continues to be first and foremost what00:32:31
it has been throughout the war up to00:32:34
this point grinding the ukrainians00:32:39
down now there's all sorts of further00:32:42
bits and pieces of news that we're00:32:44
hearing about things that the Russians00:32:47
might be planning to do there's been00:32:50
more talk about the enormous increase in00:32:53
Russian drone production all kinds of00:32:56
new drones are are being prepared and00:33:00
um built in Russia in vast quantities00:33:04
and the Russians are developing their00:33:06
electronic warfare systems but I noticed00:33:09
one particular piece of news that um I00:33:13
saw00:33:14
somewhere referenced yesterday which is00:33:17
that the Russians now are going to00:33:22
recreate the heavy artillery brigades00:33:26
that were once a feature of the Soviet00:33:31
military now these Heavy Artillery00:33:34
brigades were basically00:33:39
um closed down they were they were shut00:33:42
down after the the Soviet Union00:33:45
collapsed but plan now is to recreate00:33:48
them and they will be based00:33:53
around the heaviest tube artillery that00:33:58
the Russians have these are the 203 mm00:34:02
self-propelled guns and the00:34:08
240 uh millim00:34:11
tulpan um mortars these massively00:34:14
powerful mortars that have no analog in00:34:18
any um Western military and I suspect00:34:23
also00:34:24
that quite plausibly in these um00:34:28
brigades we will also00:34:30
see the super powerful multiple rocket00:34:33
launch systems as well including perhaps00:34:37
the00:34:39
flamethrower systems which are now00:34:41
increasingly appearing um on the00:34:44
battlefronts also and of course the00:34:47
point about heavy artillery like that is00:34:50
that bringing it all together in a00:34:53
brigade and concentrating it gives you00:34:56
an enormous00:34:57
Punch If you are wanting to break00:35:00
through heavy fortifications which is00:35:03
what the Soviets use their Heavy00:35:05
Artillery for during the second world00:35:08
war and it does look as if the Russians00:35:11
are preparing there to deal with00:35:14
Ukrainian fortified lines wherever these00:35:17
are and the Russians of course also are00:35:21
now busy um developing all sorts of big00:35:28
Precision guided bombs which their Air00:35:31
Force is now carrying um 500 kilo bombs00:35:36
1,500 kilo bombs um I've heard that on00:35:44
occasion 3,000 kilo00:35:48
bombs which massive bombs have been00:35:52
deployed as well and I can remember how00:35:55
back in the summer um Shu visited00:35:59
a bomb production factory um somewhere00:36:03
in Russia and in the background you00:36:07
could see pictures of the truly00:36:12
monstrous 9,000 kilo bombs that the00:36:16
Soviet military developed in the00:36:19
1950s and it seems that these have been00:36:21
put back back into production as well00:36:25
those presumably would have to be00:36:28
carried by00:36:31
um big medium bombers like the tupf 2200:36:37
M3 and in order to use these00:36:42
effectively the Ukrainian air defenses00:36:45
would have to be further uh degraded I00:36:49
can't imagine bombs on this SC00:36:52
operating um on a Precision guided basis00:36:56
but then of course I might be wrong00:36:57
about that but anyway um these bombs00:37:02
would be enormous bombs and of course if00:37:05
they were dropped on Ukrainian00:37:08
fortifications the effect of one of00:37:11
these bombs dropping on these00:37:13
fortifications would be devastating now00:37:16
in saying all of this I want to say00:37:18
again that I'm far from convinced that00:37:21
Ukraine has the resources or the time to00:37:24
create all these 4 ifications that00:37:27
zinsky is talking about um and of course00:37:32
it may not have00:37:34
the human00:37:38
resources to make up the00:37:41
numbers in its00:37:43
brigades00:37:45
either but I suppose the thinking is00:37:50
that if you call up hundreds of00:37:53
thousands00:37:55
of well some cases teenage boys late00:37:59
teenage boys and women um but intend to00:38:04
remain on the00:38:06
defensive then you don't need the same00:38:10
degree of00:38:11
training that you need if your troops00:38:15
are going to go onto the00:38:18
offensive and perhaps it makes more00:38:20
sense therefore to carry out this kind00:38:23
of mass00:38:25
mobilization that00:38:27
zalinski and his Western sponsors are00:38:30
talking about anyway we shall see what00:38:33
happens but I expect that there will be00:38:35
that announcement of a00:38:37
mobilization in the next week or so but00:38:41
it's clear that whatever it is that the00:38:46
ukrainians do over the next few weeks00:38:50
and00:38:51
months it will be patched together and00:38:56
improve00:38:57
improvised and it probably will not be00:39:01
well in fact it definitely will not be00:39:04
comparable to the enormous00:39:07
mobilization that is taking place in00:39:11
Russia anyway Ukrainian um commentators00:39:15
have now acknowledged apparently the00:39:19
gist of zelinsky's words apparently even00:39:21
members of the rder are now admitting00:39:25
that Ukraine is going to be on the00:39:28
defensive from this point there doesn't00:39:30
seem to be any real Prospect of an00:39:33
offensive being launched at any time in00:39:36
the00:39:37
future um one suspects that the hope is00:39:41
that some kind of a stalemate will00:39:44
emerge I have to say I think it is00:39:47
extremely unlikely George B and Jim Web00:39:54
back in August did suggest that Ukraine00:39:58
go on the00:40:00
defensive but they also suggested that00:40:03
Ukraine use any time that going on the00:40:09
defensive Bol to start serious00:40:13
negotiations with Russia and of course00:40:17
zalinski in his various statements over00:40:21
the course of the last 24 or so00:40:24
hours has00:40:27
emphatically00:40:29
rejected any thought of that00:40:33
so it looks to me as00:40:37
if Ukraine having been severely00:40:42
defeated this year has now been00:40:46
forced onto the defensive it will soon00:40:50
have a new Commander because I can't00:40:53
believe that delusion is days as00:40:57
commander in Ukrainian overall commander00:41:00
or anything other than numbered00:41:04
now there is also a possibility of a00:41:08
political deepening political crisis in00:41:11
Kiev but regardless of all of00:41:14
that given the scale of the Russian00:41:17
buildup that is taking place given the00:41:22
Manpower and Equipment shortages that00:41:26
Ukraine is facing given the West's00:41:29
inability to supply Ukraine with all the00:41:32
kind of weapons that the ukrainians are00:41:35
urgently seeking can't provide Ukraine00:41:38
with sufficient shells or tanks or such00:41:42
things um it seems to me that Ukraine is00:41:47
going onto the onto the Strategic00:41:52
Defense far too late in the war00:41:56
and as I said earlier in the00:41:58
program with no00:42:00
strategy no political or military00:42:04
strategy either about how it is going to00:42:07
win or about how it is going to bring00:42:12
the war to an00:42:14
end anyway let's now touch on what is00:42:20
actually happening on the00:42:22
battlefronts now um yesterday I00:42:26
mentioned that there were reports that00:42:29
the Russians had entered00:42:32
bogdanovka the next Village Beyond kovo00:42:36
in the Brut area there were lots of00:42:39
reports about that yesterday I00:42:41
understand there's been more reports00:42:43
this morning it does look as if00:42:45
bogdanovka is indeed now00:42:49
um in the process of being captured by00:42:52
the Russians they always one has to say00:42:56
that you get these reports and then few00:42:59
hours later it turns out that they're00:43:02
premature we'll have to wait and see but00:43:05
in AA in the AA area um I think00:43:10
information now is fairly is a lot more00:43:13
clear it looks as if the ukrainians have00:43:17
finally decided that they cannot defend00:43:20
this Village of00:43:22
stya it to the northwest of AA west of00:43:26
the railway00:43:28
tracks there have apparently been films00:43:31
of Ukrainian soldiers fleeing this00:43:33
Village and uh escaping towards berichi00:43:38
the next Village to the West it's been00:43:41
suggested that it is in berichi that the00:43:44
ukrainians now intend to make their00:43:47
stand and that rather suggests that stya00:43:50
is about to fall or perhaps has already00:43:53
fallen fully under Russian control00:43:56
we will have to wait and see Now to00:43:59
repeat again Ukrainian soldiers who are00:44:02
actually there one of them specifically00:44:04
who spoke about the situation with El00:44:08
pis Spanish newspaper um about 10 days00:44:12
ago Ukrainian soldiers have admitted00:44:15
that if the Russians are able to cross00:44:18
the railway occupy stvo send their armor00:44:23
beyond the00:44:25
railway then Communications to AA are00:44:31
imperiled and the defense of AA becomes00:44:36
unsustainable and is likely to00:44:39
collapse so we seem to be very close to00:44:43
that situation now and there have been00:44:47
also numerous00:44:50
reports of Russian00:44:52
advances elsewhere in a vka both from00:44:57
the00:44:59
south and also into the industrial Zone00:45:04
to the north this complex web of00:45:09
factories and industrial buildings which00:45:12
had joined the slag Heap which the00:45:14
Russians were able to capture some weeks00:45:17
ago so it looks as if the situation in00:45:22
AA is now deteriorating at least from a00:45:26
Ukrainian point of view fast now there00:45:29
have been lots of other reports um from00:45:32
other areas of the battle fronts it's00:45:34
not always easy to tell what is true00:45:37
there's another report I saw this00:45:39
morning that the Russians have00:45:42
finally captured all of marinka for00:45:47
example there have been so many reports00:45:50
at so many different times that the00:45:52
Russians have done this that I'm going00:45:55
to to treat that with great skepticism00:45:58
but it does seem as if over the last few00:46:03
weeks the Russians have been00:46:07
increasing their00:46:09
pressure in00:46:11
Minka and that the Ukrainian defenses in00:46:16
marinka have been gradually crumbling00:46:21
the last report I saw which last00:46:24
reliable report or semi-reliable report00:46:27
I saw about a week ago was that the00:46:31
distance that the Russians still had to00:46:35
cover in order to clear marinka entirely00:46:40
was down to 700 MERS less than a00:46:42
kilometer in other words and perhaps00:46:46
just possibly conceivably they might00:46:49
have they might have managed that um00:46:52
over the last couple of days no doubt we00:46:55
will will be getting more information00:46:57
about this soon but anyway overall00:47:01
situation on the battlefronts the trend00:47:05
of events on The battlefronts Remains00:47:09
the Same the Russians still focused on00:47:14
grinding the ukrainians00:47:17
down that is what Shu told00:47:21
us in this meeting with the uh defense00:47:26
Ministry board that I've discussed the00:47:29
Russians will continue to conduct active00:47:31
defense they continue to shape the00:47:34
battlefield to their advantage by00:47:39
um advancing where they can they occupy00:47:43
again this these a shu's words more00:47:46
advantageous positions and expand00:47:49
control zones in all00:47:52
directions the Russians continue with00:47:56
this massive buildup that they're still00:47:58
engaged with engaged in the00:48:03
huge mobilization the huge call up of00:48:06
professional soldiers that I've talked00:48:08
about the enormous increase in military00:48:13
production the reorganization and00:48:16
retraining of their forces the00:48:18
modernization of their00:48:20
forces and in the00:48:23
meantime Ukraine00:48:27
without a clear00:48:30
strategy about how to win the00:48:33
war but with a political00:48:36
leadership that cannot00:48:39
acknowledge that is unable to00:48:41
acknowledge or00:48:42
accept that the war is00:48:46
lost now talking about going onto a00:48:49
defensive a00:48:51
defense but with00:48:54
perhaps but perhaps lacking the00:48:59
tools even to do00:49:02
that anyway that's where we are in the00:49:06
conflict in Ukraine now there's been a00:49:09
certain amount of other news that's been00:49:12
percolating as well um Jeffrey payatt00:49:15
formerly the US00:49:18
ambassador to Kiev where he played an00:49:21
instrumental role in the events the m00:49:25
events the seizure of power in February00:49:30
2014 um he was also subsequently by the00:49:34
way ambassador to Greece where he's00:49:36
widely suspected of having played a role00:49:42
in at00:49:43
least getting the Greek government to00:49:46
agree to support the decisions of the00:49:50
patriarch of00:49:52
Constantinople to support a break take00:49:55
away Ukrainian Church in Ukraine anyway00:50:00
he's now a um head of energy policy00:50:04
apparently in the Biden00:50:06
Administration and he's made comments to00:50:09
the effect that the United States is00:50:12
planning to00:50:13
reduce Russian energy revenues by half00:50:17
by00:50:19
2030 didn't so far as I could see really00:50:23
explain how that would be possible00:50:26
possible but anyway that is what he said00:50:30
now of course energy Russian energy00:50:33
revenues are not under Us00:50:37
control um Russia has just played a00:50:40
significant role in OPEC Plus in an00:50:45
agreement that Saudi Arabia and Russia00:50:48
have agreed together with the other OPEC00:50:53
States for another 1 million Barrel a00:50:56
day production cut which I understand is00:50:59
going to take effect pretty much00:51:01
immediately so the Russians remain a00:51:04
huge player in the energy game and of00:51:09
course Jeffrey Patt talking in this way00:51:12
seems to me it's sort of Brave statement00:51:15
that us officials are making in order to00:51:18
pretend to themselves that their00:51:20
sanctions war is00:51:23
succeeding even as00:51:25
we see cumulative evidence about the way00:51:30
in which it has failed we've had00:51:32
admissions recently from the financial00:51:35
times that practically no Russian oil00:51:39
any longer00:51:41
sells um below the $60 a barrel price00:51:46
Gap that the G7 States um sought to00:51:50
impose at the start of this year we see00:51:53
that the Russians are steadily00:51:55
increasing exports of oil and by the way00:51:59
gas to China and00:52:03
India very difficult to see how Pet's00:52:07
comments really have any connection any00:52:10
longer to reality but they are00:52:12
indicative of the anger and the00:52:16
frustration of people in the00:52:18
administration in the US government00:52:21
especially people like Patt who are00:52:24
massively invested00:52:25
in the whole Ukraine Ukraine project at00:52:28
the extent to which their sanctions00:52:32
bazooka of the one that they unveiled in00:52:37
February and March00:52:40
2022 has failed just to reiterate again00:52:45
it looks as if Russia will achieve00:52:47
overall GDP growth of around 3% this00:52:50
year um there's some signs now that the00:52:54
interest rate increases that the Central00:52:57
Bank in Russia has um undertaken that00:53:02
they're starting to slow the growth of00:53:06
the Russian economy as they are by the00:53:08
way designed to do but overall the00:53:14
situation in the economy remains strong00:53:17
and robust despite clear signs of00:53:21
overheating and as the Russian Prime00:53:24
Minister Mich Houston pointed out anyway00:53:28
the00:53:30
um domestic00:53:32
revenues00:53:34
from the expansion the the domestic00:53:39
expansion of the Russian economy are00:53:43
making up for00:53:45
the fall such fall as did take place in00:53:50
energy revenues over the course of this00:53:53
year as Russian exports of oil and gas00:53:58
were redirected to India and00:54:02
China I'm going to make a guess by the00:54:04
way that to the extent that Jeffrey P00:54:07
really does have any00:54:09
long-term expectation that Russian00:54:13
energy revenues will00:54:15
decline I suspect he expects that to00:54:19
happen because of this longstanding00:54:23
belief that00:54:25
um many people in the west have and00:54:30
which already was there in00:54:34
2014 when the first big set of sanctions00:54:37
against Russia were unveiled that what00:54:41
is going to cause Russian energy00:54:44
revenues to00:54:46
decline is that without access to00:54:50
Western00:54:51
technology production of oil and gas in00:54:55
Russia is going to fall now when the00:54:59
West imposed sanctions in 2014 they00:55:02
actually00:55:04
targeted technology for the Russian00:55:08
energy sector and of course the latest00:55:11
set of sanctions the ones that were00:55:13
announced in00:55:15
2022 um expanded on those00:55:19
sanctions the problem is that the00:55:22
sanctions in 2014 didn't work work the00:55:26
Russians were able to00:55:30
substitute um for Western technology to00:55:34
a much greater00:55:35
extent than the West00:55:38
anticipated in terms of their oil and00:55:41
gas industry and I see no reason to00:55:44
think that things are going to change00:55:46
there um if we look about we look at the00:55:50
question of Technology sanctions overall00:55:53
there's an article today in the00:55:55
financial times about how it happened00:56:00
that China was able to develop its00:56:03
Advanced chip for the Huawei the new00:56:08
Huawei00:56:10
smartphone um00:56:13
despite us sanctions and restrictions of00:56:18
technology to China to develop Advanced00:56:23
chips and there's a a lot of speculation00:56:26
and guessing about how the Chinese did00:56:28
it but no real idea because as the00:56:33
financial times00:56:36
concedes the Chinese have managed to00:56:40
keep their success there secret there's00:56:45
suggestions that the Chinese have been00:56:48
able to managed to do it by adapting00:56:53
older Technologies to produce their00:56:56
super chip but that's ultimately no more00:57:01
than a00:57:02
guess and it does really surprise me00:57:06
that there doesn't seem to be an00:57:09
acknowledgment in the financial times00:57:12
that eventually even if they haven't00:57:14
done so00:57:16
already the Chinese are certain to be00:57:21
able to replicate the Dutch technology00:57:25
the extreme uh ultraviolet technology00:57:29
that the Dutch use have developed the00:57:32
lithograph machines that the Dutch have00:57:35
developed to produce Super Chips of00:57:38
their own even if they haven't done so00:57:43
already the United States the Western00:57:47
Powers repeatedly make this mistake they00:57:50
always think that they have this00:57:52
enormous technological advantage over00:57:55
their adversaries they always assume00:57:59
that if they impose sanctions to00:58:01
restrict technology to their00:58:04
adversaries the their adversaries will00:58:06
be unable to replicate that technology00:58:09
themselves it has been repeatedly proved00:58:11
to be wrong all the going all the way00:58:14
back to Soviet success in the00:58:20
1940s in developing nuclear weapons00:58:25
whenever the adversaries do that it's00:58:28
always assumed that they've only managed00:58:30
to do that because of their success in00:58:34
stealing technology from the00:58:37
West you know spies and that kind of00:58:40
thing there is sometimes some truth to00:58:44
that but there is a general00:58:49
inability to00:58:51
acknowledge the underlying truth that00:58:55
countries like China and by the way also00:58:58
Russia have00:59:01
enormous science00:59:03
engineering and Technology bases of00:59:07
their own00:59:09
comparable in nearly all respects to00:59:13
what you will find in the west and00:59:17
that a00:59:19
machine or a00:59:21
technology developed in the West00:59:26
can always be00:59:28
replicated somewhere00:59:30
else but anyway that's I suspect where00:59:36
Jeffrey Patt gets his ideas I'm going to00:59:41
guess anyway that over the next decade00:59:44
or so we're going to see energy revenues00:59:48
form an Ever00:59:50
diminishing proportion of the Russian00:59:53
budget this has already been true True00:59:54
by the way for quite a long time um I00:59:58
think that Jeffrey Patt like many01:00:01
Americans01:00:03
still01:00:06
inhabits the idea the universe the01:00:10
the where people still think of Russia01:00:13
as the gas station masquerading as a01:00:18
country they find it impossible to01:00:20
acknowledge that the Russians have a01:00:23
diversified eon economy and01:00:27
diverse Diversified revenue01:00:30
streams and regardless if if Jeffrey01:00:33
Patt really does believe that it's lack01:00:37
of technology that will force the01:00:39
Russians to01:00:42
lose um energy revenues I think he's01:00:46
going to be disappointed in that too01:00:49
incidentally if it's electric cars that01:00:52
it is the you know01:00:55
electro electric Technologies lithium01:00:57
iron and all of that which Jeff repir01:01:01
also States his expectations on that01:01:05
fossil fuels and all of that are gr01:01:07
going to be eroded as well well of01:01:10
course the leaders in Electric Car01:01:12
Technology are the Chinese and the01:01:15
Russians are now busy developing01:01:17
electric car production of their own and01:01:20
will no doubt be importing electric cars01:01:23
increasing from China anyway anyway01:01:27
that's what I wanted to say it's01:01:31
astonishing how despite the failure of01:01:34
the01:01:35
sanctions last year and this year some01:01:40
people in the United States still cling01:01:43
to the hope that the sanctions will01:01:46
eventually01:01:48
succeed anyway01:01:50
that's what I got to say about this um01:01:55
yesterday after what seems to have been01:01:58
another less than satisfactory encounter01:02:02
between Secretary of State blinkin and01:02:05
prime minister01:02:06
Netanyahu in Israel the Israelis01:02:10
resumed their bombing campaign in01:02:14
Gaza they're talking about continuing01:02:18
their military operation in Gaza01:02:22
um at least until the beginning01:02:25
of 20 the early part of01:02:28
2024 um I suspect that all that that is01:02:33
going to do is mobilize more opposition01:02:36
and criticism not just of Israel but of01:02:40
the United States specifically and of01:02:42
the bid Administration in01:02:45
particular in the Arab and Muslim world01:02:50
and of course to some extent in the01:02:53
United States also also and I noticed01:02:56
that a former Israeli01:03:00
official um has now written a piece in01:03:04
the01:03:06
guardian um this is Alon pinkas who was01:03:11
Israel's Consul General in New York01:03:15
remember New York of course um until01:03:18
recently well I believe it still is in01:03:21
fact the biggest the city with the01:03:23
biggest population in the world a key01:03:27
place in other words uh the U Israeli01:03:31
Consul General in New York is a key01:03:35
figure in Israel's diplomatic01:03:40
um diplomatic cader anyway um Alon pink01:03:45
says that Netanyahu is stuck as he01:03:48
battles Hamas he can't afford to01:03:52
lose can't find away to01:03:56
win and um the article then goes over01:04:02
many of the same01:04:03
points that I have made01:04:08
before01:04:10
that defeating Hamas01:04:14
militarily is not01:04:17
enough he says that01:04:20
um if he talks about um netanyahu's01:04:24
shortcoming not withstand personal01:04:27
shortcomings not withstanding much of01:04:28
the twin pressures Netanyahu is under01:04:32
come from a fundamental Gap in how01:04:36
Israel and Hamas Define or win the01:04:40
asymmetrical power relations between01:04:43
Israel a formidable M military power and01:04:47
Hamas a non-state terror organization01:04:51
are evident for Hamas a wind can be01:04:54
declared if they stand on their feet and01:04:57
wave a flag a single flag for Israel01:05:01
only a decisive military Triumph that01:05:05
degrades Hass militarily and renders it01:05:08
politically01:05:10
incapacitated will be enough Netanyahu01:05:14
is well aware of that which makes the01:05:17
balancing the pressure from home and01:05:19
from the United States and by the way01:05:21
the rest of the world an intractable01:05:23
time01:05:25
in other01:05:26
words01:05:28
Netanyahu in this war in Gaza is setting01:05:33
himself an Israel an impossible goal01:05:38
he's trying to01:05:40
achieve a PO political object01:05:44
objective which is01:05:47
unattainable through military01:05:50
means01:05:52
which ultimately01:05:54
imately are political damage politically01:05:58
damaging for the United01:06:01
States and of course for Israel01:06:04
too anyway this is where I end my01:06:08
program today more for me soon let me01:06:11
remind you again that you can find all01:06:14
our programs on my various on our01:06:16
various platforms locals Rumble and X01:06:20
you can support our work by patreon And01:06:22
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channel lastly just to quickly say if01:06:47
you're interested in my thoughts about01:06:51
the late Henry Kissinger we've just just01:06:54
Alex Christopher and I have done a01:06:57
program about him on the Duran and you01:07:00
will find it all there I expect that01:07:03
program to come up very soon if it has01:07:06
not already come out by the time this01:07:11
program appears thank you again more for01:07:14
me soon have a very good01:07:16
[Music]01:07:22
day01:07:25
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Zelensky Admits Counteroffensive Defeat, Rejects Talks, Hints Mobilisation, Zaluzhny Sacking; Shoigu Ukr Lost 125K Troops 6 months Topic 1042 *****LOCALS COMMUNITY***** https://theduran.locals.com/ 1 MONTH FREE TRIAL: https://theduran.locals.com/support/promo/DURANLOCALS *****THE DURAN SHOP***** https://theduranshop.com/ 10% OFF COUPON. Use code at checkout: REALNEWS *****OUR OFFICIAL CHANNELS***** ALEXANDER: https://www.youtube.com/AlexanderMercourisReal ALEX: https://www.youtube.com/alexchristoforou *****CRYPTO SUPPORT***** BITCOIN: 3JvdnoyWMb93hSRgk58ZstUxg11PW9mKSr ETHEREUM: 0xF39BdFb41f639B82E3D2Bf022828bC6394F533A3 LTC: MGFiMC18ZViF6DcCixMqAAP11TG4tF6Acj ADA: addr1v94ayqu53uklgqnn6c4x4weu8zk4uw78km8capd5rjdc06q28j370 HEX: 0xD449694348B1D618ECa2829Bbc901782F5172689 EMC2: EXX4KK9pZLx7uiLWnCXtp7iMKjtq6o5b6R *****DONATE***** CREDIT CARD: https://donorbox.org/the-duran SUBSCRIBE STAR: https://www.subscribestar.com/theduran PATREON: https://www.patreon.com/theduran *****VIDEO PLATFORMS***** SUPER U: https://superu.net/channel/055dc88f-aec7-475a-a7ad-1ad271b0282d/ RUMBLE THE DURAN: https://rumble.com/c/theduran ODYSEE: THE DURAN: https://odysee.com/@theduran ALEXANDER: https://odysee.com/@AlexanderMercouris:a ALEX: https://odysee.com/@alexchristoforou:7 BITCHUTE: THE DURAN: https://www.bitchute.com/theduran/ ALEXANDER: https://www.bitchute.com/alexandermercouris/ ALEX: https://www.bitchute.com/channel/izwNAdmMGIC7/ *****AUDIO PODCASTS***** SPOTIFY: https://open.spotify.com/show/5DgkWsC3YjoyGBV03CFWnk iTunes: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-duran-podcast/id1442883993 Soundcloud: https://soundcloud.com/user-901836666 *****FREE SPEECH PLATFORMS***** TELEGRAM: https://t.me/thedurancom GAB: https://gab.ai/?r=1 MINDS: https://www.minds.com/theduran PARLER: https://www.parler.com/profile/theduran/posts MEWE: https://mewe.com/i/theduran VK: https://vk.com/thedurancom OK: https://ok.ru/group/60904083488959 DISCORD SERVER: https://discord.com/invite/7qFhcjHaeF Amazing music contribution from Peter Brown. Follow Peter's music: https://soundcloud.com/peterboy100
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