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2023

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00:00:02

new Putin offensive And today

00:00:05

our military friend is our guest again

00:00:07

Expert Yuri Fedorov Yuri Evgenievich Glad to

00:00:09

see and hear you Good evening

00:00:13

Mutually Well, what is it that we are already

00:00:17

reporting from the military military from different places of the media with

00:00:22

reference to CNN, which in turn

00:00:24

cites Western

00:00:26

intelligence officials as saying that the Russian military

00:00:28

could launch a broader offensive

00:00:31

after Vladimir Putin's expected victory

00:00:33

in the presidential election in March,

00:00:37

but nevertheless goes on to

00:00:40

say that the Russian

00:00:41

offensive will likely face

00:00:42

strong resistance from On the Ukrainian side, the

00:00:44

Ukrainian Armed Forces will have an advantage; the one

00:00:45

defending

00:01:00

in the context of the topic under discussion: Yes, what

00:01:02

is an offensive? What is the threat of a big

00:01:06

offensive and why is the rhetoric itself? This is

00:01:08

beneficial to the Kremlin. Well, take it as a show-off,

00:01:11

as we say now. Yes, then, let’s do

00:01:13

all this and discuss how much we

00:01:16

can talk about in principle about the big

00:01:19

offensive of the Russian Armed Forces

00:01:22

after the elections, let’s say this without mobilization

00:01:25

because they constantly

00:01:28

deny the fact. New mobilization will be

00:01:31

carried out. Well, that is, is it possible to

00:01:33

do this even without mobilization without all the

00:01:36

other important conditions, I don’t know about the

00:01:40

replenishment of not only personnel but

00:01:42

also equipment and tanks airplanes and

00:01:46

ammunition How realistic does it all

00:01:49

look, what do you say

00:01:51

Yuri First of all, I will say that there

00:01:53

really are such rumors.

00:01:57

There are rumors that appear from time to time in

00:02:00

various types of

00:02:02

media. Well, perhaps the most famous

00:02:05

was two two

00:02:08

moments, two statements more precisely. The first

00:02:12

was the statement of General Nava in

00:02:16

Ukraine alone one of the prominent figures of the

00:02:18

Armed Forces of Ukraine, who, in my opinion,

00:02:22

it was two weeks ago, said that,

00:02:25

in principle, war

00:02:28

could occur in the

00:02:32

southeastern regions of Ukraine. Well,

00:02:35

again, this means that the idea was that the

00:02:39

Russians could break through somewhere.

00:02:43

Now with reference to CN because in

00:02:46

in general, these these this information

00:02:50

somehow it appears

00:02:54

primarily in the publications of journalists of this

00:02:58

company

00:03:00

with

00:03:02

when we use these words written

00:03:05

C written by an economist or the Times.

00:03:11

This, in my opinion, is not entirely true because

00:03:13

in fact it was written by a certain

00:03:15

journalist

00:03:17

working Tom or another publication Well,

00:03:20

if its publication, its

00:03:23

text

00:03:28

provokes colleagues or whatever it is called the

00:03:32

board of

00:03:33

directors, but it can also attract the attention of the

00:03:36

reading public. Well, then this kind of

00:03:40

material usually appears, but here it is necessary. It

00:03:44

seems to me quite clear

00:03:46

to distinguish what CNN is. How a certain

00:03:49

organization is a specific journalist

00:03:52

or journalists who publish this or

00:03:56

that message, this or that information and

00:04:00

naturally always want their

00:04:03

materials to

00:04:05

be read and attract attention, and for this

00:04:08

the information must be Well, of course,

00:04:11

quite acute and quite

00:04:14

sensational So this point

00:04:19

should never be overlooked and at the same time it is

00:04:21

also important and

00:04:24

other respectable journalists working in

00:04:27

good publications Generally never, or

00:04:30

almost never, they come up with

00:04:32

something like that on their own, someone tells them something,

00:04:36

sometimes they can refer

00:04:39

to a specific person and then this is not

00:04:43

their point of view, but the point of view means the

00:04:46

interlocutor or the interlocutor is hiding

00:04:49

behind

00:04:52

these words, here is an anonymous source

00:04:56

or a source who asked to remain

00:04:58

anonymous, usually informed from

00:05:01

government circles, from intelligence

00:05:03

organizations, and so on. Well, here somehow

00:05:10

some kind of questions arise: why would an intelligence

00:05:13

officer actually

00:05:16

share something so delicate or

00:05:20

interesting information with journalists

00:05:24

can only be done in any intelligence

00:05:26

service that exists

00:05:28

because in cases of violation

00:05:33

a person is simply kicked out of the threshold of the

00:05:36

relevant institution, which means

00:05:39

if such information appears with

00:05:42

reference to a source in the intelligence services or,

00:05:45

say, in the midi or in the state department

00:05:48

or somewhere else - in some

00:05:49

government

00:05:51

department Well, that means one of the

00:05:54

leaders of this department and the command to

00:06:00

launch the formation, launch it to the press, and

00:06:03

the question naturally arises: Why would

00:06:08

some people quite

00:06:11

influential tell the story

00:06:15

that the Russians might launch an offensive in the spring

00:06:18

with with links, again, to

00:06:21

some sources, that’s all to these questions.

00:06:25

Do I have

00:06:28

no answers, the attention of everyone who listens or

00:06:31

watches this program is that not everything is so

00:06:35

simple, it’s not just the opinion of a

00:06:40

journalist, some information, and you

00:06:43

always need to ask the question: Why to

00:06:45

whom? -this is necessary, this is an interesting

00:06:49

question here, of course, you can,

00:06:58

having lived,

00:07:00

you need to either

00:07:04

push Kiev to accept the

00:07:08

idea of negotiations or push

00:07:12

Western Western leaders to the fact

00:07:15

that, in general, Kiev needs to be given a lot of

00:07:18

help, by the way, I read one

00:07:25

I published all of these articles

00:07:28

in

00:07:31

Well, it really said something like

00:07:33

the following: that NATO allies are concerned

00:07:37

that Putin here is not a Russian military man, but

00:07:40

Putin may

00:07:43

try after the elections. Well, naturally,

00:07:46

after the elections, launch some kind of

00:07:50

offensive. Why is there

00:07:58

such an offensive for Putin? This is also a

00:08:01

question enough Curious Well, that

00:08:04

means, uh, let's move on And how

00:08:08

realistic is such an offensive? Well, let's look

00:08:11

at what's happening today at the front. uh, the

00:08:14

Russian army is advancing, uh, trying to

00:08:18

attack, carrying out, as they say, military

00:08:21

active offensive actions, sometimes

00:08:23

very active, starting from about the

00:08:27

second half of July,

00:08:30

that is, here this offensive, and I

00:08:32

’m repeating it for a very long time, which has been talked about for a long time,

00:08:35

which has been

00:08:37

in preparation for a long time, has been postponed, apparently due to a

00:08:40

number of reasons. Well, it’s coming and

00:08:45

it doesn’t bring any results.

00:08:48

Although according to completely, in my opinion, reliable

00:08:52

data that

00:08:54

was published by the Military Intelligence of

00:08:58

Ukraine on the occupied territory of

00:09:01

this country there are

00:09:03

approximately

00:09:05

420,000 Russian soldiers and officers, well,

00:09:09

let’s say this is probably 75 percent

00:09:12

and maybe 80 percent of the total number of

00:09:17

ground forces of the Russian

00:09:19

Federation, airborne troops and

00:09:22

marines, but if you add up the

00:09:24

number of personnel of these three

00:09:28

types of

00:09:29

x types of troops, one type two types troops

00:09:34

So it

00:09:35

turns out Well, somewhere, well there it means

00:09:40

approximately, well, 420,000 is about

00:09:47

75-80 And nothing, these are practically all the

00:09:50

troops that Russia Maybe you are in

00:09:54

Ukraine, it turns out that the

00:09:58

offensive is in March or there in

00:10:01

April after the ground

00:10:03

dries after the Spring

00:10:06

thaw, this means that for this you need,

00:10:09

firstly, you need to have a clear and clear

00:10:11

political goal of this offensive, and

00:10:14

secondly, you need to have the necessary forces and

00:10:17

means, and the forces and means

00:10:20

significantly exceed those that are

00:10:24

currently at the disposal of the

00:10:26

Russian Federation in Ukraine, and then

00:10:30

question A is Does Russia have the opportunity

00:10:34

to create, or send there, a

00:10:37

military potential that is significantly

00:10:40

higher than the current one, or is it necessary to

00:10:43

somehow concentrate the troops

00:10:46

that are operating there in several

00:10:48

directions, concentrate them on the

00:10:51

direction of the main attack? But all this

00:10:53

is being monitored; today, in general, it

00:10:57

must be said that there are no special

00:10:59

secrets when the

00:11:01

movement of troops begins when they begin to

00:11:04

concentrate in a certain place, the aircraft is

00:11:06

perfectly tracked, everything is visible and

00:11:10

visible from space, it is tracked by a

00:11:12

number of other technical means, in general, there are

00:11:17

no secrets, it becomes clear what

00:11:19

it means that troops are concentrated in a particular place,

00:11:21

why, in

00:11:23

order to advance as quickly as possible everything and vice versa

00:11:26

in order to

00:11:30

Maybe in general there are secrets in this sense of

00:11:33

secrets today No this is not the Second

00:11:37

World War where it means it was possible as

00:11:40

in one famous spy novel

00:11:43

very popular in Russia in August

00:11:45

forty of something when they hid

00:11:48

signs or tried to hide signs of

00:11:50

an offensive today this is a pointless

00:11:55

occupation in

00:11:57

order to need forces and means. What and

00:12:02

where to get personnel? Well, only for

00:12:05

mobilization, why? Well, because

00:12:08

firstly, the Russian

00:12:12

military commanders are

00:12:14

faced with the

00:12:17

task of demobilizing those mobilized a year

00:12:21

ago. This task is very acute and the situation

00:12:25

is becoming The sun is more acute

00:12:29

when Putin signed this

00:12:31

decree of

00:12:34

September 21 of the year on partial

00:12:37

mobilization. It said that this

00:12:41

mobilization period will be mobilized,

00:12:46

will be in the army until the end of the

00:12:48

special military operation.

00:12:50

Well, naturally, here

00:12:54

we need

00:13:03

social trials, the truth is in the seed of these

00:13:06

mobilized and among them themselves Well, of

00:13:10

those who, of course, survived after a

00:13:14

year of hostilities, participation in

00:13:17

hostilities there, quite a lot could have

00:13:21

simply been killed

00:13:27

by

00:13:31

someone else who is

00:13:35

sitting watching TV drinking beer, it

00:13:38

would be nice for him to

00:13:40

take a sip of this soldier’s

00:13:43

life and it’s time for us to rest It’s time to go to the family

00:13:47

It’s time to go home We earned some money from

00:13:51

this business, so we need to

00:13:57

eat it and they think that this is completely

00:14:01

fair, those people who

00:14:04

think like that But in fact, they

00:14:06

have served their time for a year And they have another year

00:14:10

serve for another 2 years to serve When the war

00:14:13

ends No one knows, there are rumors

00:14:17

that Demobilization is about to happen, but it doesn’t happen,

00:14:21

this causes

00:14:23

tension in the troops and at the same time

00:14:26

Well, naturally, the wives are there, the

00:14:30

mothers are there. So throughout the entire

00:14:34

length of Russia They are really

00:14:36

starting to worry too Well, how can this be

00:14:39

Why is it my husband who is fighting, But the

00:14:42

neighbor’s husband is calmly drinking beer,

00:14:45

it’s not good, it’s

00:14:46

unfair, this situation

00:14:48

arises and as the

00:14:51

channels tell Tae, who

00:14:55

is happy,

00:14:57

see

00:14:59

right Well, I tried to follow that

00:15:04

Nasko, their information is justified, their

00:15:07

short-term forecasts are there. In general, more or less

00:15:11

less apparently, this information is

00:15:13

reliable and the following information is that

00:15:17

Gerasimov repeatedly appealed to

00:15:19

Putin And even during a personal

00:15:27

meeting,

00:15:29

200 maybe 250 called up 320,000 for

00:15:35

mobilization just in these autumn

00:15:38

months of last year, they had a deadline. So it’s

00:15:42

already been more than a year and these 200,000

00:15:45

you need to be

00:15:56

demobilized, understandably speaking, there will be

00:15:59

no demobilization or mobilization before the elections,

00:16:04

and here another moment arises that is

00:16:07

quite acute for the Russian

00:16:11

army, it is known that he spoke about this a year ago at an

00:16:15

expanded step at an expanded

00:16:18

meeting of the expanded board

00:16:20

of the Ministry of Defense then Medvedev,

00:16:24

who constantly pretends to be

00:16:27

like this

00:16:29

[music]

00:16:30

So it is necessary to form, so it was

00:16:32

decided to form all the divisions of

00:16:36

49 brigades, and so on and so forth. In

00:16:39

general, serious serious such

00:16:42

formations in total, also

00:16:45

probably about 150-200, should enter there.

00:16:49

For what, in order to strengthen the

00:16:52

Western flank, the Western flank

00:16:57

turns out to be trouble

00:17:00

happened Finland joined

00:17:03

NATO now the Baltic countries are building up

00:17:07

there slowly, but still in Poland in the

00:17:10

Baltic countries and there is a plan to build up the

00:17:13

military presence of NATO in general Well,

00:17:16

some kind of ridiculous situation from the

00:17:18

point of view of Moscow, we need to

00:17:21

fend off all this And for this we need to deploy

00:17:24

these army corps on the

00:17:27

borders with Finland

00:17:29

and some divisions and

00:17:31

brigades, probably not all to deploy, but

00:17:35

nevertheless, a significant part of these

00:17:38

new formations should be deployed to the western

00:17:41

borders, and for this you need people, for this you

00:17:45

need to mobilize, but of course it is possible

00:17:49

to say that these new formations

00:17:51

will be used for the spring

00:17:53

offensive Well, you can and so Tina

00:17:58

Gerasimova you can expect anything from a step,

00:18:01

but in general this is a violation of some

00:18:03

military logic Well, it’s clear that if

00:18:07

they provoked a conflict Well, not a military one, but

00:18:11

still a conflict, a

00:18:13

confrontation with In general, NATO needs to

00:18:16

allocate at least some troops in order for

00:18:19

this to

00:18:21

mean the feeling that

00:18:25

[music] it

00:18:30

turns out ridiculous somehow, it’s not good, it’s

00:18:33

ugly NATO is expanding, strengthening

00:18:37

its presence on the Eastern flank And

00:18:39

what are we And we are nothing, that means we need to

00:18:43

accept measures and accordingly

00:18:46

the question arises: And if so, then

00:18:50

how many people need to be mobilized?

00:18:57

All those analysts who believe

00:19:01

that there will be no mobilization for the presidential elections.

00:19:04

So, first of all, it is still necessary. I

00:19:07

think Gerasimov is

00:19:10

additional because with the demobilization of

00:19:14

these mobilized, So 200-250 are needed

00:19:18

just to replace these

00:19:22

people. So you need about the same

00:19:25

amount. Well, maybe there are 50,000

00:19:27

less

00:19:28

than for replacement. So you need to

00:19:31

form to staff these

00:19:34

new

00:19:36

formations and that. And what to

00:19:39

attack with is the same 400

00:19:43

that are now in Ukraine But

00:19:46

the offensive doesn’t work out, which means then

00:19:49

you need to mobilize in the wrong place, let’s say not 250

00:19:53

or

00:19:55

400,000,

00:19:57

they say

00:19:59

such a phrase flashed generally speaking. Here in

00:20:02

these channels you need to mobilize

00:20:05

700,000 about the World Cup Gerasimov In general, he supposedly

00:20:09

told Putin, but Putin does

00:20:12

n’t

00:20:13

want to do this yet And finally, A when

00:20:16

can this offensive happen? Well,

00:20:19

let’s say he mobilizes. On March 17, it will be

00:20:23

solemnly announced that Pun has been elected as a

00:20:25

new

00:20:27

president,

00:20:30

that in general, most likely it will be so,

00:20:33

that whoever will vote is

00:20:35

one thing, but what will be announced is

00:20:38

absolutely clear. It means then the end In March,

00:20:42

mobilization begins, but people need to be

00:20:45

taught something. And for this, you still need

00:20:48

two or three months there, or even more, etc.

00:20:55

Tol

00:20:57

voto Well, accordingly, then

00:21:00

it turns out not a spring offensive, but a

00:21:05

summer offensive, well, let’s say, after all,

00:21:08

they decided on such a mobilization

00:21:13

screw it up arrange In general, I think that

00:21:17

on the one hand it will be presented as an

00:21:20

act of social

00:21:23

justice, Putin will say that Yes, these are

00:21:27

young people. They fought there for a year and

00:21:31

fought bravely. Well, who knows how, of course,

00:21:34

in reality, but Putin will say

00:21:36

that they fought bravely they brought a lot of benefit to the

00:21:40

Russian Motherland. Well, as usual,

00:21:43

everything that is said in these

00:21:45

cases. Well, it also means that there

00:21:50

must be social justice, and so

00:21:53

they say that the thesis of social

00:21:56

justice will be the central theses of

00:21:59

Putin’s election campaign. Along with the

00:22:02

fight

00:22:03

against sexual minorities,

00:22:09

this means this Maybe I think that

00:22:13

of course Russia can

00:22:16

pull off a mobilization and even in general it won’t

00:22:19

cause any

00:22:22

special social tension Well,

00:22:25

indeed, someone served there, but

00:22:29

in general, all sorts of demagoguery can be made here,

00:22:32

any kind of demagoguery is good. But

00:22:35

why fight? But here the question is very

00:22:39

interesting and very pressing because

00:22:43

if you look at the data

00:22:46

published by independent research

00:22:49

centers, the confirmed so-called

00:22:52

losses of the Russian army. Well, if we talk

00:22:54

about tanks, then during

00:22:56

the war the army lost 2500 tanks,

00:23:02

2500 in total in the Russian troops in the

00:23:06

ground

00:23:07

forces, airborne

00:23:10

marines at the beginning of the war there were

00:23:14

3,400

00:23:17

tanks. So, well, in these very same

00:23:21

ground forces there were

00:23:24

2,900, here are 2,000 tanks. At the very

00:23:30

least, they are somehow being replaced with what,

00:23:35

here an interesting question also arises:

00:23:38

What is the production of tanks in the Russian

00:23:41

Federation? Well, because usually tanks This is

00:23:44

quite popular topic for

00:23:46

researchers Usually they talk about tanks and

00:23:49

in general this is

00:23:56

known to the industrial complex, it is

00:23:59

about the same Well, if we talk

00:24:02

about tanks Well they say production there

00:24:04

has increased Well, probably the same thing can be

00:24:07

said without any numbers Well, about the

00:24:11

same situation with the production of other

00:24:13

armored vehicles but So it usually happens in general that

00:24:16

it’s impossible to say that tanks

00:24:18

produce better than infantry fighting vehicles,

00:24:21

about the same thing, read how

00:24:25

many Russian Federation tanks are produced

00:24:27

per year, and here the numbers are very

00:24:31

different. Some say that Well,

00:24:34

approximately

00:24:36

they produce about 200 per year new

00:24:41

T90 T-80 tanks of modern

00:24:44

modifications, that means 200 tanks a year, that’s

00:24:49

about 15-20 tanks a

00:24:56

month, repairs of those tanks that were

00:25:00

damaged in the war during

00:25:04

hostilities, these are the tanks that are removed from

00:25:08

Stavsky storage, which means they are

00:25:12

repaired there and brought to the divine the species

00:25:15

is being modernized If this is possible,

00:25:17

they are sending troops Well, that means they say

00:25:20

approximately, they name different numbers,

00:25:24

but in general, somewhere around 500,600,700 tanks per

00:25:27

year

00:25:29

And how many tanks are destroyed in the Russian

00:25:32

Federation, at least 100 tanks per month,

00:25:36

this means data

00:25:38

confirmed by various kinds of objective

00:25:41

evidence and photographs photographs

00:25:45

video video reports There and so on and so

00:25:48

forth Well, these are quite well-known

00:25:51

In

00:25:52

general, this means research centers

00:25:55

are doing this And as a rule they

00:25:58

Well, in general, they take a neutral

00:26:00

position, they don’t play along with anyone, neither

00:26:03

Russia nor Ukraine, which means at least

00:26:08

100 tanks die a month Well, if we

00:26:11

assume what we mean, how long has

00:26:13

the war been going on for 21 months, in my opinion,

00:26:18

it turns out, but 2 tanks have been lost Well, that

00:26:23

means we know approximately Yes, that’s how it works out: 1010

00:26:28

tanks per month If 120

00:26:32

tanks per month die, that means 2,400

00:26:36

tanks

00:26:38

perish in this most per year

00:26:41

But no, I

00:26:44

apologize no less, of course Well, about

00:26:47

1,500 tanks per year die and are replaced by

00:26:50

500,600 tanks Well, 700, that is, in general, the

00:26:55

main conclusion from all these numbers that are

00:26:58

floating around varies greatly, different

00:27:02

researchers there have different calculations, but the

00:27:04

conclusion is the same the conclusion is

00:27:07

that the Russian industry is not

00:27:10

able to replenish the shrinking

00:27:13

tank fleet of the Russian

00:27:17

army Well, as I understand it, the same thing

00:27:20

is happening with other types of

00:27:23

armored vehicles, that is, more are dying than

00:27:27

new ones, more than can be built again,

00:27:31

especially since again they say that there are

00:27:33

problems, although it’s well established Smuggling is

00:27:38

quite serious. Smuggling of all

00:27:41

kinds of

00:27:43

imported components and so on, but

00:27:46

still some things. Well, for example,

00:27:49

tank sights. Well, you know, it’s one thing to

00:27:54

import contraband

00:27:56

through

00:27:59

Kazakhstan or through some kind of

00:28:02

Turkey, to

00:28:03

import washing machines from

00:28:07

which

00:28:08

I pick out modern

00:28:10

microelectronics, or something like that

00:28:13

purchasing

00:28:15

microelectronics itself is another matter; a

00:28:18

tank sight is a completely

00:28:19

different matter; it is not a dual-

00:28:23

use product; it is a military product in its entirety.

00:28:27

If suddenly Armenia decides to purchase

00:28:30

tank

00:28:32

sights there, the question immediately arises: for

00:28:34

which tanks, how many tanks are there in Armenia?

00:28:37

Tanks for which many good

00:28:41

modern

00:28:42

sights are needed Well,

00:28:44

in general, a problem arises here.

00:28:48

Accordingly, what do they do? They put

00:28:49

Soviet tank

00:28:56

sights

00:28:58

somewhere in warehouses. And these sights are

00:29:01

in no way comparable to the sights of

00:29:04

leopards there in the challenge of aces, they don’t go

00:29:09

in

00:29:10

general, the general conclusion that seems to me

00:29:14

makes sense to draw and it is

00:29:16

that what is the strength Well, the personnel

00:29:20

for the onset of spring and summer, I already

00:29:24

know when it’s

00:29:26

yelling to

00:29:30

arrange such a thing and the personnel may be

00:29:33

enough, but the

00:29:36

equipment of good

00:29:38

weapons that are necessary In

00:29:42

general, there may not be enough and not

00:29:45

x

00:29:47

therefore therefore in general yes So So So

00:29:51

some doubts

00:29:53

regarding the basis of the

00:29:56

technical point of view, how

00:29:59

justified are these forecasts or some kind of

00:30:03

stuffing, as

00:30:05

he said, planting, as Gorbachev said,

00:30:08

they’re throwing us something, someone

00:30:11

might take something and throw it in.

00:30:14

This also

00:30:17

happens, in general, this idea seems to me to be

00:30:20

quite bearable SP

00:30:25

we say Tom is of some bad quality,

00:30:29

but it’s just, well, unrealistic let’s say

00:30:33

so now there is one more question

00:30:37

that, generally speaking, is

00:30:39

also very important to ask. In my opinion,

00:30:43

what does Putin really want? This is how the

00:30:46

Russian

00:30:49

Federation’s strategy for the next year is being built, and here I do

00:30:54

n’t think so I’ll be mistaken in saying that most

00:30:57

experts who are seriously involved in

00:31:01

Russia believe that Putin placed a

00:31:04

bet on Trump’s victory and before

00:31:08

Trump’s victory means in November next

00:31:12

year, if Trump wins, then it

00:31:16

means with his friend Volodya or Vladimir, I

00:31:20

don’t know what they call each other there,

00:31:22

here he is it means that it will hand over Ukraine and Europe,

00:31:25

too, directly into the hands

00:31:28

of Putin, these are the sentiments in the Kremlin, there are a

00:31:31

lot of different

00:31:33

kinds of Russian and Telegram channels writing about this,

00:31:37

and this means that even some fairly respectable

00:31:40

international political scientists are

00:31:42

hinting like this. Well, in general, why should we

00:31:46

be upset, but it didn’t work out now, but

00:31:50

Trump comes, the coalition will fall apart, if the

00:31:56

ass

00:31:57

to help Ukraine falls apart, and so on

00:32:00

and so forth in general In general,

00:32:03

Trump may leave, withdraw the United

00:32:05

States from NATO Well, these are the dreams of dreams in the

00:32:10

Kremlin Of course, there are such blue

00:32:14

dreams and Putin probably falls asleep and

00:32:16

wakes up well, he thinks Well, when will

00:32:20

such changes happen in the

00:32:24

United States

00:32:26

and again we will be in

00:32:28

chocolate But what’s interesting, you know, a

00:32:33

new new

00:32:37

Speaker of the House of

00:32:39

Representatives

00:32:42

Congress Mike Johnson was recently elected, he’s actually

00:32:46

Michael Well, it’s customary to call him Mike

00:32:56

lie

00:32:58

[music]

00:33:00

this Well, okay, so this is a close person,

00:33:04

by the way, close to Trump,

00:33:07

such a well-known

00:33:10

trump, so this is what he says about

00:33:13

aid to Ukraine and about the current

00:33:16

squabble that is going on in

00:33:19

Congress regarding the Izra aid package,

00:33:25

he says the following example, and

00:33:29

lately he has said more than once

00:33:32

enough Clearly, we cannot allow

00:33:34

Putin

00:33:39

to march yes All of us Well, in the majority

00:33:43

here, well, he means

00:33:44

congressmen, we understand that Ukraine

00:33:48

needs help But you understand what it is There is a

00:33:52

small problem We want help for

00:33:55

Israel and Ukraine

00:33:57

was connected with the allocation of funds for

00:34:01

strengthening the borders of the United States,

00:34:04

and this is the blue dream of the

00:34:08

Republicans, this is the blue quan for

00:34:10

them, and in general there is a problem because

00:34:16

illegal migrants penetrate in large

00:34:20

numbers from all over Latin America

00:34:23

through Mexico across the borders of the

00:34:25

United States and then go there

00:34:29

Find them in the United States, but they are doing it

00:34:32

illegally, how to get a

00:34:34

job, they don’t pay taxes, they don’t apply for

00:34:38

all kinds of social benefits,

00:34:41

social payments Well, in general, they cause

00:34:45

a lot of trouble for Republicans, it must be

00:34:47

said, and in general, a significant part of the

00:34:49

American population is very

00:34:55

annoying Well, I do

00:34:57

n’t want to say right now,

00:34:59

it’s annoying, it’s wrong, but it’s annoying, and this is

00:35:03

one of the central ideas of the

00:35:06

Republicans. So we need to put an

00:35:09

end to illegal migration of illegal

00:35:12

migration. And in particular, for this we need to

00:35:15

strengthen

00:35:17

the border and So this story is being built, which

00:35:20

means that aid to Ukraine,

00:35:24

aid to Israel is linked with the allocation of funds for

00:35:27

Ule borders plus there is also one such not

00:35:32

very big topic, but still also a topic

00:35:36

And there are very left-wing Democrats in Congress

00:35:39

who say What does this mean?

00:35:43

We provide assistance to Israel And to the Palestinians in Gaza

00:35:46

We seem to have somehow forgotten about them and should to

00:35:50

also provide assistance to the Palestinians

00:35:53

because they You see, now in such a

00:35:57

terrifying

00:35:59

situation, this does

00:36:02

not cause any enthusiasm among the Republicans And, in my opinion, it does not cause any enthusiasm in

00:36:04

the administration either, but

00:36:06

there is a problem, which means that we need to link

00:36:08

several of these problems. But in principle,

00:36:12

people close to Trump are like this Mike

00:36:16

Johnson, in general, they are in no way against

00:36:20

assistance to Ukraine, another thing is that the conditions

00:36:23

need to somehow change the provision of

00:36:25

assistance, so on, but these are details. But in

00:36:29

principle,

00:36:32

strictly speaking, only

00:36:36

50

00:36:37

people are against assistance to Ukraine; 50 Republican congressmen

00:36:41

included in the so-called caucus A freedom

00:36:44

caucus is an informal

00:36:47

association, an informal

00:36:50

group consisting of congressmen. So

00:36:53

they gather, they call it a scythe, and they set

00:36:58

certain tasks and goals for themselves.

00:37:00

50 And among them, let’s say, Well, this is 25% of the

00:37:06

Republicans in the House of Representatives,

00:37:09

even a little less, there are

00:37:10

218 Republicans, as far as I remember, well

00:37:14

and there

00:37:16

5152 means a little less than 25% Well, not much and

00:37:20

Apparently this reflects the

00:37:23

balance of forces and opinions in the

00:37:26

Republican Party and,

00:37:29

accordingly, even if Trump wins the

00:37:34

presidential elections. Although elections will be held at the same time for

00:37:40

Congress and it is not known how the situation will develop there

00:37:44

because it is quite possible that

00:37:48

President of the Republicans if

00:37:51

Trump wins and there is

00:37:54

already a democratically democratic majority there

00:37:57

either in one chamber or in two this

00:38:00

very often happens in general to say

00:38:04

that Putin has found some kind of

00:38:08

win-win

00:38:10

game related to future elections in the

00:38:14

United States, I would not and from

00:38:17

this it follows, but nevertheless, Putin

00:38:25

expects this [music] to come.

00:38:27

When you can just sit

00:38:29

back and wait for

00:38:32

those very changes to happen in the

00:38:34

United States that he really

00:38:36

wants to

00:38:37

see, that’s the story. So what to

00:38:41

talk about the spring offensive of the Russians?

00:38:45

it would still be now Well, it’s like a settled

00:38:48

matter, like some kind of

00:38:52

inevitability, I think for now there’s no

00:38:55

reason why there

00:38:57

could be an Armed Forces Because you

00:39:00

can expect anything from Putin. Moreover,

00:39:03

again, this is how evil tongues

00:39:07

tell the Minister of Defense Sergei

00:39:09

Kuzhugetovich Shoigu means reporting

00:39:13

to Putin means in contrast to what

00:39:17

Gerasimov says, he reports to Putin that,

00:39:19

in fact, he

00:39:21

has a bond

00:39:25

in Kharko to capture the Dnieper. There, and so on and so forth,

00:39:30

and in general Well, almost

00:39:33

the occupation of the entire Left Bank part of

00:39:35

Ukraine Left Bank

00:39:38

Ukraine Well, you can understand Shoigu Because

00:39:43

the chair under him is swaying, swaying a long time ago

00:39:46

and this

00:39:49

means that such vacillations began after the

00:39:52

rebellion,

00:39:55

Prigozhin did not show himself during these

00:39:58

events, but he really has been rehabilitated in some way or to

00:40:11

sell to Russia or somehow

00:40:16

exchange for something means a large amount of

00:40:18

ammunition. This seems to be why he is

00:40:22

destined in his chair but in

00:40:25

in general,

00:40:29

about Putin, these are such

00:40:34

optimistic

00:40:35

ideas, promises seem to be

00:40:39

Dat, but I think that Shoigu’s task here is not to

00:40:44

organize an offensive because he does

00:40:46

n’t really understand the offensive, but

00:40:50

[music]

00:40:52

[applause] the

00:40:55

main thing is VM’s fault And then, of course, everyone will

00:40:59

gladly start throwing stones at him

00:41:01

and shout, he is the main culprit of everything

00:41:05

that happened to the Russian army

00:41:08

during the war in Ukraine, the main

00:41:11

culprit of why the

00:41:14

wonderful instructions of our

00:41:16

wonderful president were not carried out,

00:41:18

naturally this is already the customs of the

00:41:22

Moscow elite here,

00:41:25

no

00:41:26

one understands this and is trying by

00:41:30

any means necessary and ways from this

00:41:33

matter somehow Well, postpone it at least for

00:41:36

some time, the further the better,

00:41:39

these are all, as they used to say in the Soviet

00:41:42

Union, the solution to all organizational issues that are

00:41:45

connected with it.

00:41:47

And look, we have Yuri Gech in the last

00:41:51

part of the program after all I would like to

00:41:53

return to the ongoing ongoing

00:41:55

discussion, sort of between the military and

00:41:58

political leadership of Ukraine. Pravda.

00:42:00

We see some strange

00:42:02

expressions because, well, some

00:42:04

people or politicians around us

00:42:07

speak in one direction or the other;

00:42:09

those who are closer to

00:42:12

they say something to the president's office Yes, with hints of

00:42:16

possible personnel decisions regarding

00:42:18

Zaluzhny, on the other hand, there is the same kko who

00:42:20

said that Support the audience Well, it’s clear that

00:42:22

our political contradictions

00:42:24

overlap. Although, to be honest, in

00:42:26

general, in general, we are somehow significantly

00:42:29

against except here Zelensky’s speeches

00:42:32

and then the articles in Zaluzhny’s economy

00:42:34

Well, there is no direct discussion, there is

00:42:38

nothing to discuss, if there was something,

00:42:40

we probably would have seen it But the question

00:42:43

still lies in the following, those

00:42:45

who are discussing it predicted it

00:42:49

there Well, first, the

00:42:55

second point on the disk was which means

00:42:58

he disputed that Avdeevka will not be held

00:43:00

Avdeevka is not here I

00:43:02

also want to ask about this, in your opinion,

00:43:05

how much

00:43:06

the situation in Avdeevka

00:43:09

is indicative from the point of view of the

00:43:12

firmness of the defense line which Well,

00:43:14

in those areas where Russia is trying to

00:43:16

counter-offensive, the Russian troops

00:43:19

are firm line of defense of Ukraine, I

00:43:22

was now in Ukraine in November and

00:43:30

they said Red for me Neli I’m very

00:43:33

fast but it’s not possible to risk my life or the

00:43:36

lives of the accompanying pre-officers of the

00:43:39

soldiers. Well, it’s clear that those

00:43:42

rules are impossible. It means it’s impossible. But

00:43:44

still, in your opinion

00:43:46

This Avdiivka has been storming for a month now, and these

00:43:55

alarmist ones are

00:43:56

on and Yes, but nevertheless Avdiivka survived.

00:44:00

What role in general, Avdiivka, in your opinion,

00:44:03

political, military and other, can

00:44:05

this settlement play? In general, everything

00:44:08

that happens around Ade

00:44:11

from the point of view of the

00:44:14

discussion that is going on between the military

00:44:18

leadership and Is it going Well, yes, and the

00:44:20

political leadership of

00:44:22

Ukraine Yes One thing is that the Ukrainian counter-offensive

00:44:27

did not give the results,

00:44:28

maybe they were counting on it, but in

00:44:30

principle, the defense of both the table is still standing, I

00:44:33

was personally in Kupin I haven’t seen for 3

00:44:35

months this unfortunate Kupin SK

00:44:37

was stormed and how and what and where and how, that

00:44:42

is, nothing was achieved, the goals of the tasks

00:44:45

that were set for the group there

00:44:47

from 100 to 120,000 were concentrated on

00:44:49

Pinsk Svatova Kremennaya nothing was

00:44:52

achieved So I was directly VM, how would

00:44:56

you describe the situation in

00:44:58

in the context of repeating the discussions, what

00:45:00

is happening in Avdeevka Well, and in some

00:45:02

other sectors

00:45:04

of the front, first of all, I would like to say

00:45:06

that in itself a certain

00:45:10

divergence of opinions between the political and the

00:45:12

military between the political leadership

00:45:14

and the military command in war conditions

00:45:17

is a normal

00:45:20

natural situation that can be

00:45:22

in any in any countries in any

00:45:26

any situations, I especially repeat

00:45:29

during the war and

00:45:32

there were a lot of such examples in history and Well, take Soviet

00:45:36

history, it is known that Zhukov seems to be like

00:45:39

that, at least it’s written in his

00:45:41

memoirs, which means he objected to Stalin on

00:45:44

some specific points questions Stalin

00:45:46

agreed with him Toli Disagreeed

00:45:54

Maybe there is a known history of disagreements

00:45:58

between, say, President Truman

00:46:02

during the Korean War and General

00:46:05

MacArthur, who commanded the American

00:46:07

troops in Korea, there were very sharp

00:46:10

disagreements Well, so what, it’s important

00:46:14

that these disagreements be resolved in

00:46:18

what way - in some

00:46:21

normal way I wanted to say in a political

00:46:24

way, well, that

00:46:26

means some decisions would be made

00:46:28

that would take into account both points of

00:46:30

view, and so on and so forth.

00:46:33

So it is also clear that, well, at

00:46:37

least it seems to me that it is clear

00:46:41

that the

00:46:43

failure of the summer offensive is entirely

00:46:47

natural raises a lot of questions,

00:46:51

lessons need to be learned, but again, I don’t see

00:46:54

anything tragic,

00:46:57

I’m trying to follow what they say, what

00:47:00

they write in Ukraine and not only in

00:47:03

Ukraine there are very panicky

00:47:06

statements Oh God, everything is gone, and so

00:47:09

on No, well, I didn’t manage to win

00:47:13

the battle I repeat, this does not mean that

00:47:16

it was lost, but we didn’t manage to win it, it’s

00:47:20

normal, it’s

00:47:24

nice, of course, I would like for them to

00:47:28

win, but but but it didn’t work out. Well,

00:47:31

that means you need to understand why it didn’t

00:47:34

work out, understand why it didn’t work out. Yes, they

00:47:37

say that, first of all, because there were

00:47:40

n’t enough weapons that the West

00:47:44

did not provide in the quantity that was

00:47:47

needed, they rightly say that

00:47:51

indeed the weapons were

00:47:53

not enough for it to be possible to

00:47:58

more or less successfully break through these, which

00:48:01

means the lines of defense,

00:48:05

and the second point, which is for me too, but

00:48:09

at the same time, Yes, and again, it is clear

00:48:12

that there are people who

00:48:14

they are trying Well, who from the bottom of their hearts who

00:48:18

mean simply and are fishing in troubled

00:48:21

waters, of course they are trying to

00:48:24

organize some kind of political games around this, games

00:48:28

with tambourines

00:48:30

And probably someone can tell

00:48:34

Zaluzhny that you know You are now

00:48:38

like this, you need him for president there

00:48:42

they can tell Zelensky But

00:48:44

look at what’s going on around Zaluzhny,

00:48:48

but again you know that. Well, it’s

00:48:51

normal in the difficult conditions of

00:48:55

war, there are people

00:48:58

in any country, they exist and will be

00:49:01

important, I repeat that all these intrigues did not

00:49:06

really lead to any

00:49:08

unpleasant things results, but to be

00:49:11

honest, I don’t see any statements from either

00:49:13

Zelensky or Zaluzhny or people

00:49:17

really close to them who

00:49:21

would declare their shares,

00:49:26

but when one of them

00:49:31

says that now he is to blame and not me.

00:49:37

Well, then we will talk, but so far I don’t

00:49:39

see such people, it means most likely the sun is here.

00:49:43

This is somewhat exaggerated, at least

00:49:47

now

00:49:48

Avdiivka is again. You see, here

00:49:51

the question arises: Is this a symbolic

00:49:56

story of some kind of situation, such a claim to

00:50:00

some kind of symbolic one, we need to strengthen this all, to

00:50:03

give this Avdiivka a

00:50:08

meaning there this is what the

00:50:11

Russian Propaganda is doing, the

00:50:13

Russian country is also doing this, and this is being picked up and

00:50:15

it is perceived, so to speak. Well, everything

00:50:17

is gone, this is Avdeevka, they will take the direct

00:50:20

road to the edge of the Donetsk region, and

00:50:22

further on, Dasha, to

00:50:24

everything big in the Donbass. Well, that’s how it’s

00:50:28

presented, that’s what we’re talking about. yes Then

00:50:31

you need to look at the map You see, the

00:50:35

offensive usually develops Well, if

00:50:38

we talk about a normal, good, well-

00:50:41

prepared offensive, it

00:50:43

unfolds and should go along

00:50:46

some major highways, but the war

00:50:49

in general, especially the war in Ukraine, is a

00:50:52

war for logistics, a war for communications,

00:50:56

so from under There are two highways in Donetsk,

00:50:59

two serious

00:51:01

roads, one to Konstantinovka,

00:51:04

the other from

00:51:07

Mariinsky to the west to the Oh, God forbid, I

00:51:12

can’t remember without a map, but in general the fact

00:51:15

is that none of these roads go through

00:51:17

Avdeevka,

00:51:20

that is, yes. So, for Moscow,

00:51:26

this is understandable absolutely history

00:51:28

Because because Putin needs it when

00:51:32

he is there

00:51:35

14ka yes it will be So on a straight line there

00:51:38

at a press conference He seems to announce

00:51:41

that he

00:51:43

will still be president for the next term

00:51:46

but he needs some kind of

00:51:50

victory to show the city and to the

00:51:54

world

00:51:57

[music] that’s why

00:51:59

he ordered the nobles of December,

00:52:04

so again they say that he gave such an order to

00:52:06

take Avdeevka on December 1, but it didn’t

00:52:10

work out now they read that he’s there to

00:52:14

de or

00:52:15

to demands the blood

00:52:24

of Isu

00:52:27

so at least they will

00:52:29

report said you know there

00:52:32

We have big losses. Putin said nothing, losses,

00:52:35

of course, this is not good, but the interests of the Motherland are

00:52:40

much greater in general. Don’t count the

00:52:43

losses. And what losses? And I’ll tell you what,

00:52:47

again, with reference to the British, he

00:52:54

knows, at least they say so, that means

00:52:58

900 in the month of November,

00:53:02

931 people - these are the average daily

00:53:05

losses irretrievable losses of the Russian

00:53:09

army 931 people in total at about 1000 per

00:53:13

day, that is, this can go away

00:53:16

in 31 days per month 30 30.000 Well,

00:53:19

253,000 yes, well, somewhere between 27 to be

00:53:23

exact and

00:53:26

Well, this is not only those killed there But this is

00:53:29

what it means called

00:53:32

in English, these Scouts were called

00:53:35

as constantly

00:53:38

wounded. Well, that means in general they need to be

00:53:48

demobilized, this is the average daily sweat,

00:53:52

even there,

00:53:54

what’s the difference there and Yes, what’s the difference,

00:53:59

of course? And the military sense, to be

00:54:03

honest, I don’t see the military sense in that

00:54:06

so that the blood of Ines can be taken from this very Avdeevka,

00:54:10

just as there was no special military

00:54:13

sense in taking Bakhmut and in the

00:54:17

battle for Bakhmut, but there was none because

00:54:20

there are three roads from Bakhmut, they all

00:54:24

go between the heights from the heights,

00:54:40

there will be shooting dances with tambourines and breaking dishes drink for weeks,

00:54:44

probably especially Those who did not

00:54:47

participate in battles Well, that means They will

00:54:50

drink especially on New Year and

00:54:54

Christmas

00:54:56

Well, God bless them Let them drink But

00:55:00

the fate of the war doesn’t matter from this, it will be absolutely

00:55:02

meaningless from a military point of view

00:55:05

Victory because then especially So that’s it

00:55:08

in the winter, then the military

00:55:11

spring

00:55:12

thaw to move through the fields and that means

00:55:17

black soil from Avdeevka somewhere to the

00:55:20

north-west or west, the matter is

00:55:23

completely hopeless

00:55:25

and what will happen there by the summer of next year Well,

00:55:28

it’s the war here that arranges so many different surprises

00:55:36

that it’s hard to say No, I think that

00:55:40

this one, well, but nevertheless Yes

00:55:43

Indeed, it has acquired this means a

00:55:46

place.

00:55:48

This small industrial city

00:55:52

has acquired some kind of symbolic meaning,

00:55:54

well,

00:55:55

Stalingrad is not Stalingrad for something like that,

00:55:58

but you already understand this, this is already the

00:56:03

mass media information I

00:56:06

never want to

00:56:08

scold them because the journalists are to blame for everything.

00:56:11

This

00:56:13

is known, but in this case it

00:56:17

seems to me that such a media campaign

00:56:21

around Avdiivka does not lead to anything

00:56:24

good.

00:56:26

War is war, you understand.

00:56:29

Well, okay, well, they will take Avdiivka or

00:56:31

they won’t take it, it’s fate the war will not change because of this,

00:56:34

I’ll tell you where there are two points

00:56:38

that can play a very important role

00:56:41

in deciding the fate of the war, this is Takmak and this is

00:56:45

Liman, if the Armed Forces of Ukraine

00:56:49

leaves

00:56:50

the KKU, it means they can cut off the

00:56:56

railway

00:56:58

communication connecting two

00:57:00

railway systems

00:57:02

to the west of this. cities and to

00:57:06

the east And if the Russians go to the estuary,

00:57:10

then this really creates a

00:57:13

threat of movement to the southwest already to

00:57:18

Slavyansk there, but this is not a

00:57:23

military logic, the

00:57:27

Russian leaders are

00:57:30

guided by

00:57:32

interests, which means December 14 so that

00:57:35

Putin can announce some kind of

00:57:37

joyful for news for everyone

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